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- [00:00]
Robert Mays
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- [00:26]
Derek Classen
Credit stop if you cancel any lines. Qualifying credit required.
- [00:30]
Robert Mays
AI.
- [00:33]
Dave Hellman
Had the time of my life. Hey, I never felt this way before.
- [00:40]
Robert Mays
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- [00:52]
Dave Hellman
And I owe it all to you.
- [00:56]
Robert Mays
Try Monday Sidekick AI you'll love to use on Monday.com.
- [01:03]
Ad Read Host
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- [01:55]
Robert Mays
Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays. It's our AFC east preview today. Ton to dig into. Let's just get to it with me, Derek Classen and Dave Hellman right now, It's the AFC east today on the Athletic Football Show. This division's got a little bit of something for everybody. We got one of the best teams in the NFL, a true blue blood contender that we know is going to hopefully be around to the end. We have a Miami Dolphins team that we're going to try to figure out over the course of this show. I'm not sure how it's going to go. And then Derek, we have two teams at the bottom of this division that are peddling A lot of hope this time of year with new staffs, a lot of new blood and I don't know, I think a reasonable amount of excitement about what these new regimes could look like for the jets and Patriots.
- [02:45]
Derek Classen
I'm very excited to talk about both of those two teams. They are both teams that I think if we were doing more of like a July show that is like trying to paint the three year outfit look for these teams, I would be a lot more enthusiastic. I think trying to nail it down for 2025 I think is a much trickier exercise.
- [03:02]
Robert Mays
Dave, hopefully we're going to keep this not a feature length film today, so we're going to dig into it right now. We're trying to be better about this. Let's start with the Buffalo Bills. Their off season in 60 seconds extended Josh Allen to a monster deal that he took less than he probably could have. Greg Rousseau, 4 years, 80 million, 54 guaranteed Christian Benford, 4 years, 69 million, $38 million guaranteed. Clifushakir, 4 years, 53 million, 30 guaranteed Terrell Bernard, 4 years, 42 million, 24 guaranteed Free agents Josh Palmer, 3 years, 29 million. Joey Bosa, 1 year, 12.6 million. Michael Hoyt, 3 years, 21 million. He's suspended for the first six games of the year. Ty Johnson comes back on a small deal and then smaller deals in free agency. Larry Okanjobi, Trey White and Elijah Moore. Draft picks Maxwell Harrison, the cornerback, 30th overall. He's been dealing with a knee injury in camp. TJ Sanders, defensive tackle in the second round. Edge rusher Landon Jackson from Arkansas in the third round. Defensive tackle Dion Walker from Kentucky in the fourth round. They lost Matt Collins in free agency and traded Kair Elam. With each of these teams we are talking about what we're most excited about heading into the season. Derek, why don't you kick us off? What are you most excited about watching? What with the 2025 Buffalo Bills, it's.
- [04:14]
Derek Classen
Gotta be the offense that has the MVP playing quarterback. I think that that's the easiest place to start. And it's not just that Josh Allen is an MVP caliber quarterback, right? Like I think there's a chance that on any given Sunday he is truly the best quarterback out there. But it's not just him like they, he's obviously the, you know, running the show over there. But they also have like, I don't know what the third best offensive line maybe in the league. I think in certain ways, like maybe the best. They have a very unique Left tackle. They have an interior that has played very well. Spencer Brown on the right side, really good for them. They, I mean we spent like three years talking about like, oh, the Bills need to figure out how to learn how to run the ball. And then they finally did last year and what we got was a Josh Allen MVP season where he doesn't even need a star receiver and he can go out and do all this stuff. And so to see what Josh Allen has become pre snap, to see what he's become as a decision maker, still being one of the nastiest runners in the NFL on top of stuff, being able to get taken off his plate in terms of down and distance with how good the run game is. It's just this offense is a fire breathing dragon and they're probably going to be that again.
- [05:14]
Robert Mays
We all had a similar answer to this. Dave, when we were talking about before doing, before we were planning the show, every single one of us was just excited about what this version of the Buffalo Bills has become. On offense, including a quarterback like Derek alluded to, that is kind of seeing the matrix right now. Him and the decision making and the lack of turnovers. He's always been somebody that didn't take a ton of sacks. The lack of negative plays combined with the high end stuff from Josh Allen very much feels like a happy, learned how to put sort of moment for the Bills and I think we realized the benefits of that last year.
- [05:44]
Dave Hellman
He's seeing the matrix, but he's also still an American Bison. Right? Like he's still Josh Allen. Like he can, he's the great white Buffalo guys. Like it's, he's so fun to watch in addition to having unlocked that extra layer where he's really seeing the game purely. And if that wasn't all exciting enough, I'm at least optimistic that some pass catchers can take a step this year. Right? Like go down the list whoever you want, but there's room for optimism that this can be a better pass catcher group. Derek, you mentioned it. Dude, I, I blew my own mind when I looked back at the Bill's stats last year and realized that their second leading receiver had like 650 yards or something like that. Like he cobbled it together. And so if, if the offense can take a step from where it was last year, which was amazing, it's just pure adrenaline. I can't wait to watch it.
- [06:36]
Robert Mays
We'll talk about the past countries here.
- [06:37]
Derek Classen
In a little bit.
- [06:38]
Robert Mays
That's one of my answers to one of the categories that we're going to talk about, but in discussing this with people there, they actually love the fact that they don't have one of these guys. And I know that's something that you have to kind of rationalize when you've built the team this way. But this being an offense where the ball can get spit out to anybody at any time, they think it actually is an advantage for them because you're not having to worry about force feeding one person. There is a certain amount of flexibility in the way that you can approach individual game plans. It's not on Josh Allen's mind and having stuff dicks is obviously a benefit. But this idea of I haven't thrown this guy three or four balls in the first quarter, I have to start doing it. That was just completely ejected from the mindset last year and I think they reaped some benefits from that. You still want really good pass catchers and we'll talk about which of those guys could take a step. But in their minds this is actually sort of a good thing. And when I look at the transition from the 2023 offense to the 2024 offense and why they've become this on that side of the ball. Derek mentioned a couple of the individual players like the transition and the development from guys like Spencer Brown. Bec like a excellent right tackle and you have that in Dion Dawkins. The line overall was a very good group. Ty Johnson is like a specifically important person for this team and the way they use him in passing situations. James Cook leveled up last year. There are personnel things that are driving this, but I think some of the structural things are to me what are most impressive. They didn't do any jumbo in training camp last year. I was asking about this when I was there in August. They did none of it. And then over the course of the season they ran 148 plays with six offensive linemen on the field. That was the most by far in the NFL. They also led the league in yards per play on those plays. They had 888 yards on six offensive lineman plays last year. No other team in the league had over 344. So that's like an inseason thing where you see them morphing into something else. I think over the course of last off season as they were transitioned to this run heavy team in 2023, the Bills are the second widest formations in football. They were in spread looks on almost 34% of their plays, which is like the third highest rate in the league. Last year they were in spread looks on 21% of their plays according to next gen, which was dead average. This was just a different sort of offense led by an MVP quarterback. And I think we really started to see them reap the benefits of that.
- [08:54]
Derek Classen
Because now they can oscillate like that. That was always the contention of why, when they couldn't run the ball is like, well, they can never really do any of this stuff now that they can. And Joe Brady, the offensive coordinator is still there and they're have continuity to build on this stuff. So it's incredibly exciting all around for.
- [09:08]
Robert Mays
Each of these teams. We're going to talk about the swing points in their season. Where could this year pivot for all of these clubs? Dave, let's start with you. What is your swing point for the 2025 Buffalo Bills? This is a sicko answer and I'm really excited about it.
- [09:23]
Dave Hellman
Okay. But important context is that I'm not being a sicko for sicko's sake.
- [09:28]
Derek Classen
You really.
- [09:28]
Dave Hellman
I think this is. This is the type of stuff I think you have to consider when you're talking about what we all view as a slam dunk super bowl contender. Like, barring a catastrophe, the Bills are going to be playing late into January. The goal is to go further. So my swing point is the special teams and whether they will improve with a change at special teams coordinator. They fired Matthew Smiley after the playoffs. They replaced him with Chris Tabor. Chris Tabor sat out of the NFL last year. He was with Carolina and just. He just took a year off, which is very interesting. Cause hey, guess who's a sicko? Every special teams coordinator in the NFL. So to have a year to sit and watch and do sicko shit like study the new kickoff and how it works and what advantages might be gained, that's the type of stuff that they do. So I'm really intrigued to see what the Bills special teams look like. It's not sexy. It's not going to be exciting. 15 out of the 17 Sundays of the year. But we know this shit matters, man. I mean, they were bottom five in net punting last year. They had bottom five opposing starting field positions. So opponents were starting drives against the Bills on their own 31, which again was a bottom five number in the league. Much more famously, they had a punt blocked by the Rams in a game that they lost, a shootout that they lost by a touchdown. Who knows what what sort of difference that makes. And I don't think it ultimately affected anything. But they famously had nine men on their return team in that Rams game at the end of the game and it's just like, what are we doing? And that stuff like that is why you wind up making a switch at a coordinator position after a trip to the AFC Championship game. So I'm curious to see how well Chris Tabor shores all of that stuff up. And when you're talking about a team that could win 13 or 14 games, that stuff matters to me. And I guess I'll. I'll throw in as well. I don't think I'm ready to say that Tyler Bass is a liability, but five misses last year with all of them coming from 49 and in. So like we're, we're not talking about a ton of like really difficult kicks. He did have a miss in the snow game, I believe against San Francisco, but 49 and in is. Is easy peasy by modern NFL standards. So maybe not a liability. But I have a close eye on Tyler Bass and for all of those reasons, I'm curious about the Bills special teams.
- [11:54]
Robert Mays
What I love about having three people on the show is that eventually every once in a while, we're just going to have things inserted into the conversation that I never would have gotten to in a million years. Not even the little Chris Tabor as the special teams coordinator is one of those things. And why this is important is when you are a team that's trying to win a Super bowl, every little edge on every single margin matters. And this team finished 28th in special teams DVOA last year. And Bill's fans know that it's going to be the slimmest of things that eventually get this thing over the top. And special teams are absolutely a part of that, even though we almost never talk about it on this show. Probably as a bit at this point.
- [12:32]
Dave Hellman
If I brought this to the table for like 30 of the 32 teams in the league, you should rightly tell me to screw off. But I think this is a team where it fits for me.
- [12:44]
Robert Mays
It's what this defensive line turns into that is my swing point for the 2025 Buffalo Bills. They threw an astonishing amount of resources at this group this year. No huge, like big money additions. They didn't use a first round pick on it. But you think about the number of bodies that are now involved in this pass rush rotation this year that weren't last year. Joey Bosa, Michael Hoyt, TJ Sanders, their second round pick, Landon Jackson, their third round pick, Larry Ogan, Joby, somebody they signed in free agency. Dion Walker, who they drafted in the fourth Round we six new guys who could potentially be a part of this rotation this year. And I don't blame them after the way that last year went. Their pressure numbers were fine last year. Like they were average when bringing four. They actually had the second highest pressure rate in the league per next gen when bringing five. But when you watch them at the end of last season, you could feel that they were not affecting the quarterback in the way that they wanted to. And so the group that they brought in this year, Derek, we've got a ton of different players stylistically and that's not an accident. You know, Joey Bosa can win in a variety of ways when he's healthy. Landon Jackson is a long, straight down the chest sort of rusher. Deion walker is a 6 foot 8 mountain of a man that they're really excited about. Like they thought he was much more talented than a fourth round pick coming out of Kentucky. He is somebody that struggled his final year at Kentucky with a little bit of a back injury, but really flashed in 2023 and so they're really hoping that they can go six or seven deep here and when we get to January they've got the horses up front to affect the game in ways they just couldn't by the end of last season.
- [14:20]
Derek Classen
It really is like a bunch of different guys with different body types and skill sets like Joey Bosa is your always have had really good hands and when he's at his best can really win around the edge in a way that you want. And I think this team in particular needs Landon Jackson. Among the rookies, Landon Jackson is the one I'm the most excited about. I think he has some stuff to him. He's stiff like he's not going to be like Joey Bosa where he can turn the, turn the corner. But he's long, he's strong, he's a really good run defender already and you like even in college he showed it and then even in the preseason he's shown some of it. Dion Walker has shown some of that as more of a nose tackle. TJ Sanders is like, you know, he's a little bit on the smaller end for a defensive tackle but he's got some quickness to him that I think is really valuable. So I think to me the one I'm most excited about is Landon Jackson. But if Walker hits, I think that helps them piece together some of their run game stuff because they are not a team that wants to throw some of these, you know, blitzes and early down blitz. They want to just be able to defend with their normal box. Well, if Walker can play well, then that really helps them do that.
- [15:16]
Robert Mays
I think it's a great point because there's not a lot of beef on this line that that's the one thing when you're looking at all the bodies that they've added, they don't really have a lot of space eating players. That's never the way that they have built their front. If Walker can be more of a contributor in year one than a typical fourth round pick would be, you have a massive person that you can drop at that one technique next to Ed Oliver and then hopefully that's going to help you hold up a little.
- [15:39]
Ad Read Host
Why?
- [15:39]
Robert Mays
And one reason, one area where this team gets by even though they don't really have those bigger bodies and think about even their second and third level, they don't have a lot of thumpers in this group. But one thing that stands out when you watch this team is that they are phenomenal on the edge when defending the run. Gregory so is so long and you drop in somebody like Landon Jackson. This team was seventh in the NFL in regular season rush success rate on defense last year per next gen. That's not. It's kind of counterintuitive when you think about their body types, but I think some of the work that those guys do on the edge is one of the reasons they hold up a little bit better against the run than you might think given how they're constructed. I still in the back of my mind, I'm a tiny bit worried about when you get to the best teams in the league trying to run downhill against you in January. Can you hold up? The Ravens had a 60% rushing success rate in that game last year in the divisional round, but over the course of the regular season they have shown a consistent ability, despite how they're built, to be pretty solid and run defense.
- [16:38]
Dave Hellman
I don't want to put too much hype on a third round pick, but Landon Jackson's a really fun player. I'm glad we. I'm glad we spotlighted him.
- [16:45]
Robert Mays
I just. He's a unique. He has a unique skill set and you can deploy him in a very specific way. And I think that's the goal with this, is that if we have five, six guys that do something well, even if it's a little bit limited collectively, we have a group that we can feel good about and I think that's how they've built this thing. For each of these teams. We're going to talk about what is keeping us up at night about their chances in 2025. Derek, why don't you get us going? What is keeping you up at night about this year's Buffalo Bills.
- [17:13]
Derek Classen
The secondary at large, but like primary. Well, I was going to say primarily cornerback too, but I think it is a little bit of everything. Like, Dane Jackson has been fine for them at times. You know, he's been on and off the roster for them.
- [17:24]
Robert Mays
This was like three years ago that day. Jackson was fine for them. You could be worried about the second quarterback spot for the Bills.
- [17:29]
Ad Read Host
It's okay.
- [17:30]
Derek Classen
Their other corner is a guy who was previously good for them and has not been for like three years in Shadavius White. So like they, they're going back to a lot of old friends that I'm not sure are really going to solve the cornerback two problem for them. And then at safety, they're running back a lot of the same guys. It's all of the same guys that they had last year with some trio of Taylor Raptamar Hamlin and Cole Bishop. And I think, you know, we talked about on our X Factor show, it would be really nice if Cole Bishop stepped up and was a really good player for them. And I think he's going to be starting for them in a way that he wasn't last year.
- [17:58]
Robert Mays
He is, he's definitively the second safety for them. Right.
- [18:02]
Derek Classen
I'm not confident that he's going to be that much of an upgrade yet. And that's not to say he, he can, but it's just like I, I think until I see it, it's gonna, it's gonna be a long road. So this, this entire secondary, like, I, I trust Benford to be a really good player. I really trust Taron Johnson. The other three spots. I'm a little iffy.
- [18:20]
Dave Hellman
Yeah. I mean, I don't think anybody at this point is trying to bring back Jordan Poyer and Micah, Micah Hyde. I think we're, we're comfortable with that ship having sailed. But good safety play has made such a difference for this team over the course of its run. And yeah, you, you have to be worried about that. The cornerback spot for sure. But I think probably because he was a pretty marquee pick, you know, like a second round pick. In Cole Bishop, my, my eyes go to him because I have high expectations for him. He came out of Utah too, which low key, has a really good reputation for developing defensive backs.
- [18:56]
Robert Mays
So I got Jalen Johnson.
- [18:58]
Dave Hellman
Jalen Johnson. Julian Blackman in. I think he's with the Saints now. But he's had a nice career. Like, I have high hopes for what this guy can be and, and safety play in Buffalo has been such a big part of their success. So it's something that I definitely worry about. And while I was prepping for this, I again blew my own mind. You guys realize, and maybe you do, if, if you, if I'm lacking on this, that's on me. The Bills are the only team in the league since 2020 that's been top five in takeaways all of those years.
- [19:31]
Robert Mays
So I was going to mention this.
- [19:33]
Dave Hellman
They lead the entire NFL in takeaways over that stretch of time since 2020. They're better at it than everybody else. They're better than Pittsburgh, they're better than Dallas, and for the most part they're substantially better. Like, they take the ball away a lot. And that's despite not really having that all Pro Ball Hawk, 8 interceptions Type of player. They just do it with guys hands on the football. So if somebody like a Cole Bishop or a Maxwell Hairston or whoever, if they're not holding up their end of the bargain on that, that that could make a difference for a defense that's gotten used to doing this every year.
- [20:08]
Robert Mays
So I was going to mention this when I was talking about. When I was going to talk about how what I'm watching for the first month of the season, I have my doubts about them being able to take the ball away at the same rate again this year compared to what they did last year. And especially when you combine it with what happened on offense. This team had a plus 24 turnover margin last year. It's 8 better than any other team in football. The sealers were second at plus 16. That's not going to happen again. Like that's just not going to happen. They're probably not going to create as many turnovers on defense and they're probably going to turn the ball over more on offense. So that's something to keep in mind. And on the defensive side specifically, this team was 24th in defensive success rate last year. They relied on turnovers and so bad.
- [20:50]
Derek Classen
For a long time if they're actually.
- [20:53]
Robert Mays
Bad, if they're not turning the ball over at the same rate this year and down to down, we're getting similar sort of results from the defense. What does that mean? When we get into the back half of the season, that's not keeping me up at night. That was what I was watching over the first half of the year. But I think it's absolutely worth talking about. Like we Just think of the Bills as this good defense. Like, oh, they'll be somewhere between the 7th and 12th best defense in the league. That was just not the case last year and they really survived on those turnovers. If that comes back to earth a little bit. And we still have these questions about the secondary and there's, you know, just overall personnel wise, they don't have that many star level players and you're trying to win a Super bowl, what does that ultimately mean?
- [21:33]
Derek Classen
I'm kind of done, I'm not done with that defense because they could be fine, but like I'm a little bit done talking about them until I can see them get punched in the mouth and get up off the mat. Like we've just never seen it even at their best. And I'm still a little bit worried about that.
- [21:46]
Robert Mays
And I just think that this defense, there are elements of it that are really dynamic and almost chameleon. Like on the back end. They disguise on the back end as well as any team in the league. Last year only the Rams and the Vikings per next gen played more too high coverages out of single high pre snap alignments than the Bills did last year. It's very amorphous and they make it hard on the quarterback. But there are other elements of this defense that are a little bit predictable and a little bit stale. Only the niners played more four man fronts last year and the Bills were 24th in the league in success rate when playing man coverage. Just think about when they tried to do it last year against the Chiefs in the AFC championship game. For being hurt was a huge part of that. But Kyrie Elam or a similar analogous player to Kyrie Elam is probably going to be that second cornerback this year. Like the whole hope was that Maxwell Harrison would be that guy. And unfortunately you talk about Cole Bishop. The same thing happened to Maxwell Harrison that happened to Cole Bishop last year. He gets banged up early in camp and even if he can get healthy early in the season, this is a defense because the back half is so complex that it's going to be really hard for him to come in and hit the ground running. So there's a chance we're relying on Trey White at this stage of his career or Dane Jackson because they're probably safer bets. And I just worry about the overall ceiling of this defense. If we have enough component pieces where that's the conversation, I think that's fair.
- [23:00]
Dave Hellman
I'd be remiss if I didn't say this though, and I think this all makes Sense in the context of we know where the Bills are trying to go. But one thing I think you can count on for the Bills is at least for the last two or so years, there's been a stretch where they were beat to shit. The defense looked hopeless. And you're sitting there saying, like, how are they going to get out of this? And by God, don't they slap it together with duct tape and get there and that.
- [23:26]
Robert Mays
But they slap it together against the Dolphins In Week 15, they don't slap it together against the Chiefs in the AFC Championship game. That's my concern.
- [23:32]
Derek Classen
I don't care about November.
- [23:33]
Dave Hellman
You're totally right.
- [23:34]
Derek Classen
November doesn't matter.
- [23:35]
Dave Hellman
You're totally right. But I mean, you gotta. You gotta be in that game in January before we can worry about how good you are at dealing with.
- [23:41]
Robert Mays
With the Chiefs.
- [23:42]
Dave Hellman
That's all.
- [23:43]
Robert Mays
So I kind of flipped my. What is keeping me up at night? I'm what I'm watching in the first month of the season, so I'm just gonna move these two. What I'm watching in the first month of the season with the Buffalo Bills is what steps the young pass catchers take. Right. I mean, how does this group come together? We talked about it a little bit at the beginning where they're fine with the fact that they don't really have that guy that they can rely on. But this group needs to be more than the sum of its parts. And I do think that some of these really highly picked players that have to become difference makers for them, does that happen in their minds? Dalton Schultz and Keon Coleman were both trending in a really positive direction last year before they got hurt. Keon Coleman had his two best games of the season against the Titans and the Seahawks. And then he gets banged up and he never really got back on track. Dalton Cade was having a pretty nice year. He gets banged up, never really gets back on track. So their hope is if those guys can stay healthy, we will see better versions of them this year. And then you drop Josh Palmer into the mix here, and even if he's not a star, his skill set, Derek specifically, where he can separate a little bit against man coverage, that is the one guy on the perimeter that they haven't really had as part of this equation. So collectively, even if we have no stars here, can the young guys take a small step and can Josh Palmer be of enough of a differentiator where we feel really good about this group as a whole by the time we get to the end of the season?
- [25:05]
Dave Hellman
Yeah.
- [25:06]
Derek Classen
And like, the nice part about it is like, if they really don't, it's still probably a top six offense, right? Like, you have Josh Allen, the offensive line, they're probably still going to be really good. But I do think again, this is a team where you're talking about like, what are the margins when we get to the middle and end of January and it's like we kind of need Keon Coleman to be the red zone threat that we thought he was going to be when we drafted him. We need him to be our kind of third down. In my mind, he's a little bit of like what Juwan Jennings, like, he should be a little bit of what Juwan Jennings is for the Niners, like that style of player and if he's.
- [25:36]
Robert Mays
Actually a good combination jump somebody that doesn't need to separate to necessarily be effective.
- [25:41]
Derek Classen
And I think he's got a little more pop to him with the ball, like in the ideal case, but like, similar style of player where like, that's what you're getting out of him. And then Palmer is just your bigger downfield X, which they have had in, in Matt Collins in the past and Gabe Davis and stuff. But like, Palmer is a little bit more consistent, I think, than those guys, but he also still brings a lot of the blocking and stuff that you got from those guys. So if we can just get 5 to 10% better play out of a guy like Palmer than we got from guys previously in that role, and then Coleman can just give you a little bit more of those pot plays, those one on one wins that you want, then I think this offense can pretty easily. You know, we say they're going to turn the ball over a little bit more, and that is probably true just based on how well they didn't last year. But if they can also get a few more explosives by virtue of these two receivers stepping up and hopefully Kincaid being a little bit healthier, that probably makes everything come out in the wash.
- [26:29]
Robert Mays
And Derek, I know you were paying attention to what steps the young players would take over the first month or so of the season. We talked about the past catchers, talked about Cole Bishop. The other guy that I know they're very excited about and the steps that he's taken and they're hoping that we can see a similar sort of jump in year three for him that we saw for Spencer Brown is Osiris Torrance. He has had a very nice training camp and he's somebody that's like, all right, now it's his time to be the guy, when we get to week 11 and we're talking about these Bills offensive linemen that are really flashing, is he the guy that's getting the Spencer Brown treatment in 2025 in their minds, that is on the table.
- [27:05]
Derek Classen
That would go a very long way for them because I envision him a little bit of the same way that we got from like the best of Makai Becton last year where it's like, okay, in pass pro he can be a little bit slow and he's going to reach on stuff sometimes, but in the run game, if, if, if he can get hands on you, he's moving you. And especially with some of the double teams that he's putting together with Brown, if he can clean up a little bit some of that stuff with being a little bit too slow to landmarks or being a little bit slow in pass protection and he becomes a little bit more stable there and you get all the pop, I mean, he's going to become one of the best guards in the league, hopefully.
- [27:35]
Robert Mays
I was watching him in one on ones and obviously you know that that's a crapshoot. You're there for one day of training camp. But just how confident he was and some of the hand usage stuff and just the nuances of his game that I think have really started to develop and sharpen. I was very impressed with what I saw when I was there. And that's the story that they've been telling all throughout camp for each of these teams. Dave, we're talking about what a successful season looks like. What is a successful season for the 2025 Bills?
- [28:01]
Dave Hellman
You don't need me to say, say it, but I will. I mean, the, the, the Bean McDermott Allen Bills will be measured by their ability to reach the super bowl and preferably win it. But you at least gotta get there. We all know that. My question for y', all, what significance does beating the Chiefs play in that? Like, obviously Bill's fans are gonn a championship no matter how they get it, but do you feel like it, like, doesn't it have to involve a win over the Chiefs finally, just for poetic justice, like Manning finally beat Brady in 06 when the Colts won that Super Bowl. Like, you kind of got to slay the dragon in my opinion. Like, take it however you can get it. But I just, I feel like a Bill's super bowl run needs to involve that win.
- [28:47]
Derek Classen
The only reason I say no is that he will inevitably have to go through Burrow or Jackson. Otherwise, like, if he doesn't have to Go through Mahomes and like that to me is good enough, that I'm like, I'm not really getting tripped up over it.
- [28:59]
Robert Mays
I don't think anyone will care in Buffalo. I think that is the most beautiful way that it can play out. Like, if they don't end up getting the Chiefs as part of that playoff run, I think part of me would be a little bit upset.
- [29:10]
Dave Hellman
Put it this way, Bill's fans will be ecstatic no matter what. But it will be just, it would just be seismic if they finally pulled it off while defeating the Chiefs. I think it would put it on another level than just any Super Bowl.
- [29:27]
Robert Mays
I don't want to be too fatalistic here or too alarmist when it comes to the construction of this team because I think they showed us last year that even if they're dealing with dead money, even if it looks like they might be taking a small step back, when you have Josh Allen, you're always going to be in the mix. But if you look at their two year outlook here, financially, they're already 9 million over next year's cap. They can save some money if they move on from Dawson Knox, but if they do that, then they lose their wide tight end. That allows them to do some of the stuff that they do in the run game. So you're chipping away at that. David Edwards and Connor McGovern, their left guard and center respectively, are free agents after this year. They're hoping, I think, that they can bring back one of them, but I think affording both of them is going to be a little bit tough. And so again, you're just starting to slowly chip away at the elements that have made you into the offense that you are. So this year feels like a ripe year as that offensive line is there. They've stayed healthy over the last couple years. This is the type of group where, all right, we feel good about the push we can make and that's it. If they don't win the super bowl or at least get to the Super Bowl, I think that everyone in Western New York is going to be a little bit sad about how this season went. All right, we are going to take our first quick break and then come back with the Miami Dolphins.
- [30:42]
Dave Hellman
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- [32:19]
Ad Read Host
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- [34:33]
Robert Mays
It's our Miami Dolphins preview their off season in 60 seconds. Extended Zach Sealer, 3 years, 64 million, 43 guaranteed acquired Minka Fitzpatrick in trading for Jalen Ramsey. Got Darren Waller to come out of retirement. Signed James Daniels three years, 24 million, 11 million guaranteed to play guard for them. Smaller deals for Tyrell Dotson, who they retained Zach Wilson. Forgot that happened. Nick Westbrook, Akina and Ife Mellow Phone Woo Lost Javon Holland and Calais Campbell in free agency. They drafted Kenneth Grant 13th overall and guard Jonah Savanea in the second round, 37th overall after trading up for him. Dave, what are you most excited about watching with the 2025 Miami Dolphins?
- [35:15]
Dave Hellman
I think on this show and in the NFL sphere in general, the Dolphins are a little bit of a punching bag right now, and we're going to get into a lot of the reasons why.
- [35:25]
Robert Mays
I want to be clear about this. I do not necessarily think they're bad. I just don't know what to make of them and I just am confused by them. That's where I sit with this.
- [35:34]
Dave Hellman
Even if we don't think they're bad, I think a lot of people are just in general like, what the hell's going on with the Dolphins?
- [35:41]
Robert Mays
There's bewilderment. Even if there's some hope for elements.
- [35:44]
Derek Classen
Of this team, bewilderment is a generous term for me. But yes.
- [35:48]
Dave Hellman
So if you're, if you're a Dolphins fan, and even if you're a rational Dolphins fan, you're probably a little annoyed at hearing that nobody thinks your team is capable of doing anything. So I will just throw this olive branch out there. Cause we, we got plenty of critical stuff to say. But if Tua's healthy and the majority of the past catchers are healthy, like if one of the two of Tyreek or Waddle is healthy, preferably both the running backs. I'm so glad you mentioned Nick Westbrook, Akin, Robert. I feel like it's flying under the radar that but the deep ball God is in Miami now. So with all of that there, if they're all available, like the Dolphins will be entertaining. Like they will be able to score points. They will be a fun team and that's exciting. Like I, I like to watch touchdowns and I think they'll score plenty of them.
- [36:39]
Robert Mays
When to it has been healthy since 2022 and Mike McDaniel got there. This team has averaged 6.3 yards per play. They have a 46.2% success rate on offense and they've averaged 0.09 EPA per play. For context, the yards per play and success rate would rank first in the NFL over that stretch and they would be second in EPA per play. When he has been healthy, this has been one of the best offensive, one of the best offenses in the league. Any metric that you want to look at over the course of the regular season, and that's kind of what I was excited about, is I want to watch the next Mike McDaniel Houdini act that he's going to pull like every single off season. When you think about them not really changing who they are and kind of frustratingly doubling down on this, it feels like him stringing himself up in a straightjacket and having to get out of it. It's his own doing. Like they're doing this to themselves, but he's still able to consistently wiggle his way out. Last year, the ways that they shifted that offense because of how teams were playing against them, they faced more cloud coverages last season per Next gen than any team in football. It was 35 and a half percent of drop backs. No other team in the league was above 30%. The difference between them and the Vikings at number two was bigger than the difference between the Vikings and the jags who finished 17th. And so because of this, because of the environment they know they're having to work in, they were dead last in the NFL in air Yards per attempt. They were one of two teams with negative air yards to the sticks on third down to have finished second in the NFL and dropped back success rate last year. Like their ability to consistently find these little crevices to continue being good on offense despite their limitations. We noticed the limitations by the end of the year, but the process of working around them. Derek, I'm consistently impressed by.
- [38:28]
Derek Classen
They are the best team in the league, I think at getting to the wild card graphic, I think that's the best way that I can frame this team. Does anything after that matter for them? I'm not really convinced, but in terms of like being able to get there, they are probably the best team in the league. I'm really excited for it because it's never the same thing. Obviously, like at first it was a lot of the cheat motion stuff was kind of their big thing. And then like kind of last year it became, or even the year before it became a lot of like the different ball handling stuff that they were doing. They'd started to go to more pistol at certain points because they realized we couldn't really get under center one with our quarterback. I don't think he loves that. But then also just the offensive line. I think with the way that the run game was going to work, they didn't want to get under center and be that way. So like, like they've just always found these different little ways to shift. I mean, even last year, obviously John Smith isn't on the roster now, but part of why they went to such a low a dot type of offense was they realized like, okay, with the way defenses are playing us, the best way to get to a ball to a decent skill player is to throw to John New Smith immediately. And they did a really good job of pivoting to that. So again, Mike McDaniel does. Not just Mike McDaniel, but like Chris Greer and the whole thing. They kind of backed themselves into a corner with the way that the roster is constructed. But. But he always finds some way to make it work and he's probably going to do it again.
- [39:39]
Robert Mays
And I'm excited about seeing what that looks like on offense, even if it does bump up against some limitations. For me, what I'm excited about is this defensive front if everybody is healthy. And I know that's a massive caveat because of how many games Jalen Phillips and Nick and Bradley Chubb have missed over the last few years, but with all those guys on the field, I think this could be an incredibly fun unit. Chop Robinson already looks Like a star, like, period. On a rate basis last year per pff, here are the players that were more disruptive as pass rushers than Chop Robinson, Aiden Hutchinson, Miles Garrett, Micah Parsons, Trey Hendrickson, Nick Bosa, Sit. It's the end of the list and he had 350 pass rush snaps last year. This is not like a part time player who is really productive despite a lack of volume. He was on the field a lot and he was really good. Derek, for me, it's like I watch him and he's not a huge. He's not huge like he. But he's not. His lower half is so strong and he plays with so much power for somebody that's not overwhelming in size. And that's just not what I anticipated from him after watching him at Penn State. But he will play right through a guy's chest. And when you watch all the stunts that they use and just how creative Anthony Weaver's pressure packages are, he's a real weapon. And so when you combine that with Phillips, Chubb, Kenneth Grant, which I did not love Kenneth Grant as much as some of the other interior players in this class, but I can understand the appeal of him. And he had some really nice flashes in the preseason so far. And Zach Sealer is still here. Like, there are a lot of guys to potentially work with for a defensive coordinator that I think deploys those pressure looks in a way that is as dynamic as anybody in the league right now.
- [41:21]
Derek Classen
This is going to sound dumb, but the reason I think Chop is really good is he's the exact type of player I usually don't gravitate towards where he's a little bit smaller. All he wants to do is win around the arc and he can run through you if he needs to, but he is mostly a guy who's going to try to get around the arc. But like he's awesome. You watch him and he is just consistently finding a way to the quarterback. Like he's a player that I've really come to enjoy. So I think if he can continue to be like a really explosive presence for them around the edge, that does a lot because he's different than the other guys that they have.
- [41:48]
Robert Mays
Right.
- [41:48]
Derek Classen
Like Jalen Phillips, I think is at his best a little more of like a do it all. Like he's. I think he's a really good athlete, but he can go through you. He has inside moves, he has outside moves. Bradley Chubb is obviously a little bit bigger and kind of definitely wants to play through guys. Matthew Judon, if you know Whatever we're going to get from him is also that style of player similar to Bradley Chubb. So the fact that Chop Robinson is very clearly their race car type of pass rusher, I think if he can kick it up a notch, I'm extremely excited.
- [42:14]
Dave Hellman
This could be one of the very best pass rushes in the NFL, and no doubt it definitely is flying under the radar. Like I and I'm not trying to sell you on the Dolphins as a Super bowl contender, but it's not being talked about by very many people. I don't think it's hard not to.
- [42:33]
Robert Mays
Treat this group as anything more than theoretical because those guys have just struggled to stay on the field. Like, we didn't see Bradley Chubb play football last year and in theory he should be healthy because he didn't play at all last year.
- [42:42]
Ad Read Host
But.
- [42:43]
Robert Mays
But Jalen Phillips is again coming off of a torn acl. Like there's always something happening with this group and so I'm excited about what it looks like in the best possible circumstances. It's just hard for me to believe in those circumstances considering how the last couple years have gone. Let's get to the swing points for the 2025 Miami Dolphins. Derek, where in your mind does this Dolphins season potentially pivot?
- [43:07]
Derek Classen
Well, we talked a little bit already about, like, what is the new pitch for McDaniel? What is he going to do? I think a lot of that when you look at the roster is going to have boil down to what do we get from these two new guards? Because I think last year the biggest issue was the offense was they couldn't, the interior especially couldn't like move people and they couldn't run the way that they wanted to. There was no diversity, no power. So what they did was they went and signed James Daniels, who at his best can move people, and drafted Jonas Avenue, who is a little bit of a bigger guard. And they really spent draft capital to make sure that what felt like to them, the last like in that tier of guard, what they really needed to go get. So they have really made a concerted effort to really change not just the quality of player at guard, but the identity of what they have at guard. And that to me is like if it goes well and James Daniel is healthy and we see some of the best of him and Savannah has at least like an average rookie year. Those two would be massive upgrades from what we got out of that unit last year.
- [44:03]
Robert Mays
Dave, I can already tell based on what we saw in the preseason that you're, you're continuing frustration with what this team looks like in short yardage is already getting to you.
- [44:12]
Dave Hellman
I keep saying that I'm trying not to be influenced by preseason and training camp and maybe I'm just doing a bad job. But you watch them play the Bears and they made it a point to play the ones after the joint practice and they just got bullied on the goal line just. And they even. They made it a point to like, they were like, we're going to run three times from the two yard line and we're going to get in that end zone. And the Bears were like, no, the hell you're not. With their second string. And that is so demoralizing. And then it happened again. They joint practice against the Lions and it sounded like a massacre at this training camp. The way Lions beat reporters were talking about. They were like, the Dolphins are going to have to be taken out of here in ambulances. So we already know it was bad. They were dead last in the league in red zone success rate.
- [45:04]
Robert Mays
They.
- [45:04]
Dave Hellman
They were 30% in red zone success rate which is 16% below league average. They were so bad. And I don't really. I know everything Derek just laid out, but that is such a precipitous drop from how good they were in 2022 and 2023. It's like they just forgot elementary stuff. I don't know. Or maybe bulk and power really does matter that much when you get down there close to the goal line. But it is, it was. It's an untenable drop. When you look at last year's numbers. I mean, they were bottom three in the league and everything. They scored 19 red zone touchdowns. I mean, we got to get these numbers up if I'm expected to take them seriously. It's crazy.
- [45:48]
Derek Classen
I think it matters a lot specifically for them because they don't have a quarterback who runs. They don't have backs who are like particularly powerful and they don't have a ball winner. So how the hell else are you supposed to score in the red zone but run through people? But they couldn't do that either. So it's just. That's why I think it's like this really, really has to work.
- [46:06]
Robert Mays
Let's throw out some Numbers about the 2024 Miami Dolphins run game. It's essentially the exact inverse of the passing game. And you'll see why here in a second. They were stuffed on 26.3% of their runs per next gen. No other team in the league was above 21%. The gap between them and the Texans at 31 was bigger than the gap between the Texans and the niners who were 13th.
- [46:27]
Ad Read Host
Wow.
- [46:27]
Robert Mays
They were in their own zip code when it comes to this stuff. They also weren't explosive. They were below average in explosive run rate last year. And Derek, why I was losing my mind when you were talking about them consistently getting pushed back in the run game. When you watch the run game. Mike McDaniel was generally considered one of the best run game designers in professional football. Like the unique wrinkles that they have when they're trying to run the ball are unlike almost any other team in the league. All of this misdirection, all of the ball handling, tight end slicing across the formation, none of that shit matters if you're getting pushed back a yard into the backfield on almost every single play. And that's what it looked like last year. They could not move people, they could not displace people and it was just a non starter for the run game overall. And so now you have these two bigger, more physical guards that hopefully are going to be able to displace more people in the run game. And let's throw Patrick Paul into the mix here too. He's coming in as the left tackle and while he is a little bit raw when it comes to pass protection and I do think that's worth thinking about him and 7A in that bears game they had a double team where they were just moving that three technique off the ball. And so that to me is the best case scenarios with Paul, Savannah, James, Daniels, you can just have a little bit more downhill physicality. The one thing, two things that give me pause with this one divine chance already hurt. He's already probably going to miss the first game of the season and potentially more with the calf injury that he is dealing with. That is something we absolutely have to take into account because he is hugely important to the best case scenario for this team on offense. And the other part of it is the most frustrating element of that run game last year as I was re watching it this morning, wasn't even in the interior offensive lineman. The tight ends on this team are so bad in the run game and their inability to hold up on the edge consistently did this team in last year. They didn't do anything about it. It's like the same group of guys, the tight end they went out and got this year is Darren Waller. You think there was never a blocking out edge rushers like that. That's not how this is going to work. So I am, I do have hope about what the guards can do to the physicality of this offense. I still have concerns about some of the other ancillary pieces contributing to the identity this team is clearly chasing when they're trying to run the ball on their own terms.
- [48:37]
Derek Classen
I definitely agree with that. I just. This was an offense that was incomplete in five ways last year. Hopefully it's only incomplete in like two ways this year and then we can live with it that way.
- [48:46]
Robert Mays
Let's talk about what's keeping us up at night with the 2025 dolphins. Derek, why don't you kick us off? What is your source of anxiety with this Dolphins team? I'm sure there are several.
- [48:55]
Derek Classen
I mean there. Okay, to be clear, there are several. There are a lot of things I worry about with this team, but the glaring one, the one in flashing red lights is the secondary. It's all a bunch of guys who are one old and like weren't on the team last year. Like it is a secondary that they have completely cobbled together outside of. Okay, the only guy who played any amount of serious snaps for them who is page to be starting for them this year is Storm Duck. Storm Duck was an undrafted free agent last year and he was okay. Everyone else, it's like Melafonu from the Lions who had I think we like as like a potential swing but he got pushed out of the Lions rotation with injuries and them just having better players. Minka Fitzpatrick, who had a weird end to his Steelers thing and is now being reunited in Miami, which is also another weird thing. Kendall Sheffield from the New York jets and Mike Hilton, who, listen, I love Mike Hilton. Mike Hilton is very obviously on the wrong side of 30 and there's. There's a potential that he just doesn't have it anymore. So this is just. It's an old cobbled together secondary that just. It's very hard to sell me on.
- [49:59]
Robert Mays
The best case scenario here if I was trying to sell you on it is that the pass rush is so good and they can play enough junk zone behind it. And Anthony Weaver, who I think is very good at this and I think if you look at the structure of that defense last year, he is a defensive coordinator that I feel good about him getting the best out of those pieces even if we're not that excited about the pieces. Maybe if that's the version of the defense that you're talking about and this is the best pass rush in football, can they get to average or slightly below average defensively and can this offense be as good as it has been when to it has been Healthy. That formula is like a wild card team. That's the best case scenario. But I do think that's the path if we're trying to carve it out.
- [50:44]
Dave Hellman
Are we sure the Dolphins aren't just the Snowbird Giants? Like, at least defensively? Because I feel like we're. I have deja vu talking about the defense right now where I'm like, this pass rush kicks ass. Don't look too hard at the secondary.
- [50:57]
Robert Mays
But at least the Giants have done something about it. The Giants at least threw resources at the secondary. The Dolphins have not done that because they have no resources.
- [51:08]
Dave Hellman
I like the state of the Giant secondary more than the state of the Dolphin secondary, to be very clear.
- [51:13]
Derek Classen
Right. Because, like, the big thing the Dolphins did with their secondary is like, oh, they got Minka Fitzpatrick. Well, you had to trade Jalen Ramsey a way to do it. So that doesn't even really count as, like, you know, we invested a bunch in it.
- [51:23]
Dave Hellman
Yeah.
- [51:23]
Robert Mays
I just. I don't know what this is going to look like. And there are other teams that we'll talk about later. And I don't even want to mention the specific one I'm thinking of because I know the blowback that will happen where teams are like, their corners are terrible. I've seen corners on that team contribute to a good defense. This is all theoretical. Like Mike Hilton as a blitzer within this scheme. I get some of that. Like, I do think him and Mellow fomo. Like, there's a vision for probably how they want to deploy those guys and unleash them as pass rushers close to the line of scrimmage. Like, I get some of it, but this team holding up in coverage, I think it's really hard to get there and talk yourself into it. What's keeping me up at night with this team is that the Dolphins as constructed, when we thought that they were like a contending team, they were a playoff team. They were already like a Stars and Scrubs roster. That's how this thing was built. They leveraged themselves for these guys. They traded a lot for Tyree Kill. They traded a first round pick for Nick Chubb. They paid Toronto Armstead in free agency. Like, this was already a fragile build and a needle that they were trying to thread. Well, there's still a Stars and Scrubs roster, but some of the stars are gone. Right. Jayla Ramsey's not here anymore to. Ron Armstead's not here anymore. And so I just don't know what this is all supposed to be and how it's all supposed to fit together. His team is $27 million over the 2026 cap right now and there are certain things that they'll do to handle that. Right? Tyree Kill is like a 50 million dollar cap at next year. He'll either be extended or he will be released. But that brings me to my big question here. Who are the building blocks on this team? Like who are the guys that you think you're going to be able to move forward with in 26 and 27 and feel good about? Who are the good established rookie contract players? On the Dolphins it's just chop like.
- [53:06]
Derek Classen
In terms of guys but he by.
- [53:09]
Dave Hellman
Saying rookie contract so I got nothing.
- [53:11]
Derek Classen
Yeah, listen, I love Devon Hn when he's on the field, but he's a smaller guy who's not on the field as much as you would like him to like in terms of guys that we have seen be relatively healthy and really good. It's kind of just chop.
- [53:24]
Robert Mays
This team has such a short Runway for what it can be because of how it's built and I don't even feel good about their short term chances. And we'll get to the existential stuff here in a second. But that's what's keeping me up at night is this was already a stars and scrubs team and now it has fewer stars. And I just think what you're trying to do and what you're trying to pull off the high wire act necessary for this to be a potential playoff team and for you to achieve your goals I just think is so, so hard to do. What are you watching in the first month of the season with these Dolphins, David?
- [53:58]
Dave Hellman
So we have a tendency to do this at the wide receiver position and I completely understand why. There are so many amazing ones. There's more than ever before and it just feels like they keep coming. And two more jump into the league every year. You know, this time last year, Malik Neighbors and Brian Thomas Jr. Were were ifs. And now we view them as big time like very good receivers. So in that landscape, if you have a down year later, bye. I don't want to hear about you.
- [54:27]
Robert Mays
It's so true. You're just dead. It's over for you.
- [54:32]
Dave Hellman
The quickness with which we just write a guy, it's like, oh, he's only like the 16th best receiver in the league. Screw this guy. So obviously I'm talking about Tyreek Hill. It was undeniably a down year. He played through an injury. It was very pedestrian and especially by his standards, it was shockingly Normal, right? Like you didn't see any other regular Tyreek Hill stuff, any other run after catch any of the 80 yard house calls. And on top of that, we have to acknowledge that the relationship seems like it soured a little bit. Right? I mean Ty Tyree are rotten period.
- [55:07]
Robert Mays
And he is not contributing to it in a good way.
- [55:10]
Dave Hellman
We, we, I, I, I'm pretty confident saying that. I think the Dolphins probably tried to move on from Tyreek. It's just he's, he's on the wrong side of 30, he's got a big contract, he's a tough guy to move. And so I think the Dolphins probably looked at it and they're like, all right, well it's not the worst consolation prize to be stuck with a very dangerous deep threat wide receiver if that's the situation that we're in. And to be fair to him and to them, I'm not ready to just say Tyreek Hill lost it. I'm really not like he, the, if you go and look at at his like the, the advanced numbers from last year, it looks about right. Like I don't have a good reason for why last year was so bad. But, but the, the yards per reception, the air yards per target, the Yak per reception, that, that one was a little bit worse, but it was, it was still close to some of his other years. So I think he's probably still got some juice. I mean if you extrapolate his numbers for a full healthy two a season and obviously that's a big part of it, right To a missed several games. If Tua plays all of last year, you're Talking about a 90 catch, 1100 yard season for Tyree Kill, which is right in line with what you would expect. Well, I mean it's, it's not as great as a couple of his Dolphins years, but it's a perfectly good season. And so what what I'm looking at in the first month of the season is like, are we burying Tyree Kill a little bit too early? And I won't be surprised if the answer is yes. Like maybe he doesn't have a ton of time left, but I think it's totally possible that he's got another year or two left in his, in his bag.
- [56:42]
Robert Mays
Why I think this is particularly important. It goes back to my last point with the Stars and Scrubs thing. Like if Tyree Kill is not a superstar with the way that you have built this team, the rest of it is Irrelev, it just starts to matter. And so I think watching what that looks like over the first month is perfect. Mine is something we've danced around a little bit. When I'm watching the first month of the season, it's just how many of this, how many of the we need this to work moves for the Dolphins actually work. Jonah SA and the trade up you made for him. Hilton and Mellophone Will being spot starters for you on these cheap deals. The Darren Waller Hail Mary, like how many of these actually work? Because if several of them do, I do think that there is a path for this team, even if it's narrow. If most of them don't, then I think that we're looking at a pretty rough, disappointing, hard to watch season. For elements of this roster they are.
- [57:35]
Derek Classen
Trying to hit the nastiest parlay. To be like a 10 win team is like the way that I feel about this roster.
- [57:41]
Robert Mays
I don't love it. This is. I love this. It's such a great comparison because the way that I have looked at how they've handled this off season is the way that I would look at my buddy with a gambling problem where it's like, yeah, man, this could work, but I cannot support how you're trying to do it.
- [57:56]
Derek Classen
Yeah, it's like I could look at the six individual things and be like, I guess that could happen. But then altogether it's like, okay, you sound insane. You need to, you need to talk to somebody.
- [58:05]
Dave Hellman
Mike McDaniel's just like, We've had a rough couple of hours, but this is how we're going to climb out of it. It's fine. Like, buddy, the sun's coming up. Let's just call it a day.
- [58:14]
Robert Mays
Yeah, he's your buddy at the sports book. Just got his head in his hands. That's exactly where Mike McDaniel is right now. What counts as a successful season, David, for the 2025 Miami Dolphins?
- [58:24]
Dave Hellman
You can call it a cop out if you want to, but what Stephen Ross said at the end of last season is etched in my brain. I've mentioned it on the show before, but remember, the Dolphins finished just outside the playoff field. They were 8 and 9. They were alive on the final afternoon of the season. And Stephen Ross thought it was like necessary to say after the game ended that, like, hey, I'm not firing Chris Greer and Mike McDaniel. I just need you to know that. And then his direct quote was, continuity and leadership is not to be confused with an acceptance that the status quo is good enough. So that's what the owner said. So who am I to say that anything short of a playoff berth is going to be good enough. Cause clearly the owner expects this team in the playoffs whether it's fair or not.
- [59:10]
Robert Mays
I can see them potentially being a playoff team. We've talked about that. I think there is a path for them to do that, Derek.
- [59:17]
Derek Classen
But like, who gives a shit? Like it doesn't. Like to what, to what end does a playoff if they scrape into the playoffs in worst condition than they have done in like 2022 or 2023 when those teams got smacked when it matters. And then they get here and you said they're what, $27 million over next year's cap? And again, I know that they can fudge that and some of that stuff, but they don't have that many clear like building blocks. It's like, to what end does a nine or ten win season wildcard birth even give you? I just, I don't know, man. It's hard. It's very hard for me to get excited about a team that could comfortably be over.500.
- [59:51]
Robert Mays
I threw out on Twitter earlier today just a joke about the outline. In my prep for this show and in the what is a successful season for the Dolphins? I said I truly have no idea. And somebody responded and I think this is right. They could be picking first in the draft or they could be a wild card team. Like, I think that both of those things are on the table for the Dolphins and I don't think I can say that for a lot of teams. The Mike McDaniel and Chris Greer part of this, like, what is success for them? We talked about this a little bit with the Giants yesterday. It's not that interesting to me to look at it through that lens. I'd rather look at it in a vacuum. Like, what is success for the Dolphins? If I was trying to lay it out, here's what I would say. This is like my devil's advocate point. I don't even know if I believe this, but I think this is maybe what would make Dolphins fans feel good. You walk out of this season feeling really good about 200 when he's healthy. Like this offense has been good when he has been healthy. Like, is he somebody that okay even at this price tag, he's in that Jared Goff sort of group of quarterbacks where we know we can win with this guy if the right pieces are around him. Like we continue to feel good about that. I think that's a box you have to check. And then the other part of this is you start developing a cache of young players that you feel decent about. Like these guys that are kind of unknowns right now. Patrick Paul, Jonas, sa, Kenneth Grant. Is there going to be a core of six, seven, eight guys that as we had a soft reset here with some of the tyree kill and aging players moving on, we can pivot quickly because we found the right pieces. They have a fourth round compact for Javon Holland. They have a third rounder that they got in the Woody Marks trade for the Texans. Like is there going to be in when we're having this conversation next year? Can I ask you guys, who are the young building blocks for the Dolphins? With the same tone as I just did today, I think that to me marks success for the long term health of the franchise.
- [61:37]
Dave Hellman
And I don't really think it's. I really don't think it's as bleak as. As it might sound. The big question for me is just are Mike McDaniel and Chris Greer gonna lead that reset? Right.
- [61:49]
Robert Mays
Like that's my big question too.
- [61:50]
Dave Hellman
Yeah, that's what I. That's what we don't know right now. But if you move past that uncertainty, if two is good and healthy and what you just said comes to pass with some of the young players, I think the long term outlook for the Dolphins can be fine. Even if the present outlook is just very strange.
- [62:08]
Robert Mays
Where we get with Mike McDaniel by the end of the season, I'm fascinated by like, I think you can get to a place where even if this doesn't go right, you still convince yourself he's the best coach for this team moving forward because they just don't have the personnel to be consistently successful. If that's the end game here, I'm okay with that. I'm much more concerned with how this team has been built than with how this team has been coached. And sometimes you throw the baby out with the bathwater. When it comes to those decisions at.
- [62:32]
Derek Classen
The highest level, that feels the only thing out. The last thing I'll say is that feels a little bit like what has happened with Cleveland where again like so many things have gone wrong for them, but it's like they kept Kevin Stefanski and if you look at just the record, it's like he should be fired. But it's like, well, I think Kevin Stefan's good coach so I wouldn't want to fire him.
- [62:48]
Robert Mays
I think that's a very good comparison. And listen, Andrew Barry. I think there are plenty of mistakes and the draft record is horrible and obviously the Watson trade. But I think in terms of process with most of the other stuff that they've done. It's a little bit easier for me to get on board with that compared to a lot of things that the Dolphins have done. The desean Watson let's other than deshaun Watson trade is a very other than like, how is the play, Mrs. Lincoln. But I do think I feel a little bit better about the leadership in Cleveland collectively than I do about the leadership in Miami. I guess that's what I would say. All right, let's get to the New York Jets. Our Preview for the 2025 New York jets, their off season in 60 seconds. Hired Aaron Glenn as their head coach, Tanner Angstrom as their offensive coordinator. Still, Steve Wilkes is their defensive coordinator, Chris Harris is their DB's, DB's coach and defensive passing game coordinator Scott Turner is their passing corner on offense. Signed Justin Fields, 2 years, 40 million, $30 million guaranteed. Extended Garrett Wilson 4 years, 130 million, a 90 guaranteed Sauce Gardner 4 years, 120 million, 85 guaranteed Jamie & Sherwood back 3 years, 45 million, 30 guaranteed Brandon Stevens is in free agency as the cornerback, three years, 36 million, 23 guaranteed signed Andre Cisco's safety one year, eight and a half million. Also brought in Josh Reynolds, Isaiah Oliver and Josh Meyers in free agency. Lost Aaron Rodgers, Devonte Adams, D.J. reed, John Kinlaw, Hassan Redick and Morgan Moses in free agency. Drafted Arman Member in the first round at offensive tackle, tight end Mason Taylor in the second round, cornerback Azeray Thomas in the third round. Your boy Derek, wide receiver Arian Smith in the fourth round and safety Malachi Moore also in the fourth round. Derek, what are you most excited about in watching the 2025 New York.
- [64:23]
Derek Classen
Jets? Just Aaron Glenn's version of what this jets defense is going to look like. Because I spent I've spent a lot of last year, I think, and a lot this offseason saying that like there's still reason to be excited about the jets defense. Like I think the roster has atrophied a little bit. But like you still have theoretically one of the best corners in the NFL. You have Quinn and Williams, who is a monster when he's playing well, Quincy Williams who is playing well behind him, Jimmy and Sherwood at the other linebacker spot. Like they have these Will McDonald has been an ascending star at the pass rusher spots. Like they have a lot of dudes that if the defense gets turned around a little bit and I again they played well early last year when Salah was there. I really trust Glenn not only as A defensive coach. Like, I've spoken a number of times of what I thought about him as a secondary coach when he was with the Saints. He obviously showed some of that with getting a lot of the young guys to play really well in Detroit. But then even just cobbling together what he did last year with Detroit, given they had like a zillion injuries, was phenomenal. And for him to I think come into this roster hopefully a little bit healthier than that for the rest of the year. I just, again, I don't know if they're going to be that 2023 jets defense, but like, if they are the 11th best defense and look like a really solid unit, again, I'm not going to be that surprised. And I'm, I'm pretty excited to see.
- [65:36]
Robert Mays
It. I'll be curious what it looks like structurally. Like, are we, I assume we're going to see a shitload of man coverage. Like that's just what Aaron Glenn does and so I assume we'll see that. How aggressive they are with the pressure is something I'm going to be watching. Like Steve Wilkes has in his past shown a willingness to really bring it and turn up the heat. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw that that's not really what the DNA of this jets defense looked like under the previous regime. Even if they did, they did some interesting stuff with those like five zero looks on passing downs where they had those overload fronts and they had some creative ideas. But this was never like a heavy pressure team. It's never how they wanted to live. So where they fall there is interesting to me. But if you look at the man coverage success that this team had, they played a ton of man coverage on third down under Robert Sala and they were really good at it. Like in 2023, the only defense that had a better man coverage success rate per next gen stats than the New York jets was the Cleveland Browns. They were fantastic and so unleashing this group, especially the corners. Like I see it, Brandon Stevens is such a fascinating pet project for Aaron Glenn, specifically. Like, I think he is such a good him and Andre Cisco like them as okay, we think that these guys are free agents, are always available for a reason and I think you get there with both Stevens and Cisco. It was a down year for Cisco last year in a nightmarish situation with the Jags. And Brandon Stevens is somebody, he's like Luis Mendoza and Mighty Ducks 2. Like he's the fastest skater in the world but can't stop. Like, that's Brandon Stevens, he's the best coverage quarter in the league that never turns his head around when the ball is coming. And so you see it with these guys, like they're imperfect players. And if Aaron Glenn can work the same sort of magic with this group that he did, developing some of those guys in Detroit and they can be that sort of like you man coverage team, I am excited about what the end version of that could look like.
- [67:27]
Dave Hellman
Dave. Especially with the actually having. Well, hopefully, hopefully I think a more effective than it would get credit for pass rush. And obviously that's going to hinge on Jermaine Johnson coming back healthy after his promising season. It's going to hinge on Will McDonald continuing the success that we saw last year. You're going to want a little bit more from Quinn and Williams, but if those three guys are firing and that is a hell of a way to start for Aaron Glenn and, and you can do a lot of that stuff, like you can get away with playing the way you want to play if nobody in the pocket has trust that they can hold onto the football. So it's one of those weird things where sometimes you're just willing to give a unit a mulligan, you know, like you want to, you want to dive into all this next level analysis and come up with the reason why the jets weren't that good on defense last year. But sometimes you're just like, ah, it's a weird sport. These are good players. Aaron Glenn's a good coach. Steve Wilkes is a good coach. Like I'm pretty optimistic that this could be much better results even though I don't have a lot of numbers to point to why that might be the case. But I, I think it's a totally realistic.
- [68:39]
Robert Mays
Hope. This is not scientific whatsoever, but one of the most impressive things in the world to me about the Robert Sala era of the jets is how high the give it shit factor was on defense as everything else was.
- [68:52]
Derek Classen
Horrendous. They were the best defense in the league with Zach Wilson playing quarterback on the other.
- [68:57]
Robert Mays
End. It's so hard to do that because defense is so based on how much you're willing to put into it and the fact that they did it for so long, I think them white knuckling it for like two straight seasons, eventually that thing was going to drive off a cliff if those conditions were continuing. And I think that's what the back half of last season felt like. And so those guys that we felt like were true ascending star level players, the sauce gardeners of the world Quinn and Williams, if they play like star level players, what can this defense feel like? And I think it can be better than preseason expectations projections would lead you to believe. Dave, what are you most excited about with the 2025.
- [69:37]
Dave Hellman
Jets? This is one of those times where I do wish in specific ways that the NFL was a little bit more like college. Obviously the NFL is way too good to get away with this. But I look at, at, I look at what the jets are doing this year and I just wish they could call Paul Johnson and install the triple option. Just like play the wishbone. Cause it looks like they're equipped to do that. Like you add a quarterback who's capable of rushing for 600, 1100 yards in a season, you just drafted these badass tackles. The jets offensive line should be pretty good if those young guys live up to their draft billing. You got a great 12 punch of running back Breeze hall and Braylon Allen. I would love to see this team run the triple option. It would probably not work because the NFL is harder than that. But like I want to see them get goofy with it and lean into the run game. Obviously there's ways you can do that while still running an NFL offense. I think Justin Fields needs to be a big part of it. But the, the weapons and the, and the capital that you bring to the run game should make it fun to watch and, and yeah, great defense, running game, like, what's not to love? Smash mouth.
- [70:46]
Robert Mays
Football. We ran a flexbone offense in high school my junior year. That's, that's what I want to see here. I want to see like mid-2000s Air Force football where you have one fullback, quote unquote, that is you're like lined up behind the quarterback, halfback and then you have two like flexbone wing backs and that's how you construct your running game. I want Braylon Allen to be the hammer and I want Breeze hall and Isaiah Davis lined up like flexed off the line of scrimmage. And let's go to town, that is the best version of this jets.
- [71:17]
Dave Hellman
Offense. Service.
- [71:18]
Derek Classen
Academy. They have three backs to do it. Like Breece hall is really explosive when he's playing well. Braylon Allen I think is way smoother than anyone his size has like any business being. He's not the best like breakaway guy, but his feet are phenomenal for a guy his size. And then Isaiah Davis is like, I think a majority of teams in the NFL would be happy if he was their second back and he is the third back for the New York Jets. So like they just, they've got a stable of guys on top of a quarterback who can run and then on top of also like Armand Membu, man, him and some of what him and Tucker were doing in the run game, getting some double teams in the preseason. Insane. Like they just look awesome at.
- [71:56]
Robert Mays
Those two guys next to each other. And you know, Joe Tippman is like a big physical player. John Simpson can move people. And I'm excited about what fashion can be like. Every time we do this with young offensive lines, there's a little part of me that's like I want to see it first. Like it's just because you threw a lot of investments into it doesn't mean it's going to work. But I am excited about what this group can potentially be. Let's get to this. Swing points for the 2025 New York Jets. The areas where this season could potentially pivot for this jets team. Dave, why don't you kick us.
- [72:27]
Dave Hellman
Off? So we just mentioned them and we, I mean we talked about them in partic in regard to the run game, but in general it's just really exciting when you spend this type of capital on two offensive tackles and back to back years. Like it's the same thing. Pittsburgh did the same thing with Broderick Jones and Troy Fatano. You draft Olu Fashanu 11th one year, you draft Armand Menbu 7th the next year. And as as high as those guys go, like, you know, you're one of the first one or two tackles off the board. The expectations are so fun. And so I think the swing point is just how good are those guys? How quickly do they gel into a formidable tackle duo? And if it's quickly, that's so cool. I mean, obviously it helps in the run game. It would help a quarterback like Justin Fields who is going to hold on to the ball, who's probably going to try to make plays after the 3 1/2 second clock goes off. And when you've got guys like that, it can open things up for you. So I not trying to sell anybody on the jets as an elite offense this year, but if those guys are really good, it could have really big ramifications in all aspects of the.
- [73:38]
Derek Classen
Offense. Yeah, those two are like if this is pie in the sky, but if they're like the 8th best tackle duo in the league and they look really good in pass protection, like that's the thing with Justin Fields is I think there are ways that this can work out, but Justin Fields is going to be late and he is going to hold onto the ball. But if him being late and holding on to the ball is he has an avenue to escape three and a half seconds into the play as opposed to he is getting smacked like that is going to make a big difference. And obviously it's not going to happen every time when you have two young offensive tackles. But if that can work out for them more than it did last year, then I think they could be in a relatively decent spot given what we're.
- [74:18]
Robert Mays
Expecting. My best case scenario for Justin Fields still at this point, I think it's kind of morphed into this because of what he's been as a player. He's robotic in the pocket. He's not moving. He's not moving particularly quickly. Like that's just not his game. He's. We talk about this Derek. He's not a creative player from the pocket despite being an overwhelming athlete. The best version of Justin Fields in the NFL is like dime store. Jalen hurts like that. That is what he is. And Jalen hurts. His success has been driven in part by the pass protection he gets on the Eagles. His limitations and how quickly he is playing saying matter less because of how good the pass protection is in Philadelphia. And I don't think Justin Fields has the strengths that Jalen Hurts has relatively. But I think the path forward for him can look somewhat similar and that starts with this group being a really, really good pass protecting group right away because that has never been part of teams that Justin Fields has played on. It was not the case in Chicago and then last year in Pittsburgh, Broderick Jones especially early in the season was really struggling in pass protection. So I think even if Arman member was like a B plus, this is already going to be the best pass protecting unit Justin Fields has ever played with in the.
- [75:28]
Derek Classen
NFL. Yeah, like I, I know for a while I was a Justin Fields defender. The ship has absolutely sailed on him being like a good NFL quarterback. But I am genuinely interested to see what it looks like for the first time in his life getting pass protection that felt like Ohio State. That I'm just curious to see what it looks.
- [75:44]
Dave Hellman
Like. It's so bleak to think that. That this is the best pass protection he'll have ever played behind a second year tackle and a.
- [75:52]
Robert Mays
Rookie.
- [75:52]
Derek Classen
But. But.
- [75:53]
Dave Hellman
It. It's true. It's definitely true. It's just.
- [75:55]
Robert Mays
Bleak. It should be. That's what I'm willing to say. In the third week of August we fashado. I have a lot of hope that he can be good And I really like what I've already seen from Arma Membo in the preseason. I loved him as a prospect. It should be the best pass protection he's ever gotten. I. I don't. I'm not willing to write that. I'm not willing to write that in pen quite yet. What is keeping us up at night about the 2025 New York Jets? Derek, why don't you kick us off here? What is keeping you up at night about this.
- [76:25]
Derek Classen
Team? The jets have one definitively good pass catcher who to me is a wide receiver, too. In an ideal world, that's not a great way to build a passing offense. And I know we just talked about how much of like, this is probably going to be a team that is going to be like top 5 in run rate this year. They want to build it through the ground. All that stuff. That's. That's great. In the NFL, you're still going to throw like 400 times a year. Like, at the end of the day, you still have to throw it a decent amount. And if the only guy that you can rely on to do any of that is Garrett Wilson, who is good, he's really explosive. He has really good ball skills. He is also like a little bit of one of those, like, herky jerky route runners. He can be in weird spots on routes sometimes, which I think particularly for Justin Fields, even though they played together in college, I do think at the NFL level is like a little bit of a. A icky combination to me that I'm kind of curious to see how it works out. So to me, it's just last year they felt a little bit incomplete and they still feel pretty incomplete outside.
- [77:22]
Robert Mays
From quarterback, from wide receivers or just pass catchers 2 through 6. Is there a worse team in the NFL coming into the season than the.
- [77:30]
Derek Classen
Jets? I mean, probably.
- [77:34]
Dave Hellman
Not. I struggle to think of it if it's out.
- [77:37]
Robert Mays
There. I mean, Washington pre. Debo may have been in that conversation, but Debo is now in Washington. I don't know who else would even come to mind. This is a rough.
- [77:49]
Dave Hellman
Situation. Like, we're, we're maybe next team we're going to preview could have something to say about.
- [77:54]
Robert Mays
That.
- [77:54]
Derek Classen
Maybe.
- [77:55]
Robert Mays
Yeah. Yeah, potentially. Potentially. I think. I think that's probably the right answer. The New England Patriots are in the.
- [78:00]
Derek Classen
Conversation. Cause I almost said Cleveland, but it's like David and Joker is pretty.
- [78:04]
Ad Read Host
Good.
- [78:04]
Derek Classen
He's. He's better than. Than. Than what we're going to get here.
- [78:06]
Robert Mays
Like. And even Hunter Henry is a better pass. I Mean, we'll see what happens with Mason Taylor, but we're talking about a second round rookie tight.
- [78:12]
Dave Hellman
End. The ointment there. Yeah.
- [78:15]
Derek Classen
Exactly. At least we know he's.
- [78:17]
Robert Mays
Competent. That's my, that's how I struggle with this team is that again, if we're going back to the Jalen Hurts thing. Jalen Hurts has the Monstars as his pass catching group. Justin Fields is not walking through that door with that sort of group. Here it's Jalen Hurts or it's Garrett Wilson and not a lot of other things that we feel good.
- [78:33]
Ad Read Host
About.
- [78:33]
Robert Mays
About. And so I just. It's hard not to look at that group and have really limited expectations for this team because as much as we want them to be a service academy run game and as much as I do think they can lean on that, that sounds great. Like, that sounds great in August. Like, oh, we're just going to ground and pound and we're going to grind teams down. It's like, this is the NFL. Like eventually your quarterback is going to have to make like six to eight plays a game for you to be worth the shit. And I just don't know what that's going to look like with a quarterback that has Justin Fields, his spotty history, and a pass catching group that has Garrett Wilson and not much else to rely.
- [79:09]
Dave Hellman
On. And that's why I'm really happy that the jets paid Garrett Wilson and paid him well, by the way. Like he, they paid him a top five contract and at least he's got that in his pocket, literally. Because what I lose sleep about is Garrett Wilson potentially being Terry McLaurin. And when he's about to turn 30, the jets finally find a quarterback. I hope that doesn't happen because he's so fun, but it, that's the trajectory that he's on right now, where he's seven years into the league before he finds out what reliable quarterback play looks.
- [79:44]
Robert Mays
Like. I'd be curious to talk to people with the jets about the contract they gave Justin Fields. I mean, it's, it's not a small deal. Like it's $30 million guaranteed. It's a two year, $40 million deal. And I do that. The last couple contracts that were handed out that these like one year salvage the quarterback type of approaches. Like with Sam Darnold, it's like, all right, well we salvaged the quarterback and now he's gone. Like, what are we going to do? And so it feels like they're protecting themselves a little bit by doing it this way. But he has a $23 million cap at next year and it's 22 million in dead money. So you're going to pay him $30 million over the next two years no matter what. So you are insulating yourself just in case he hits and you want to roll with this again next season, but you are paying a premium to do it. It's not free.
- [80:27]
Derek Classen
Free. It's not free. But also like to me it doesn't like if they suck and get the fourth pick, they can still take whoever and it.
- [80:33]
Robert Mays
Doesn'T. I think that's exactly right. I think that's exactly right. There is some opportunity cost for it, but it's not so prohibitive that it might be worth protecting yourself a little bit. I assume that was part of the thought process mine. What's keeping me up at night is not nearly as problematic at 9:20pm when we're recording this as it was at 6:00pm when I was doing my notes because this team traded for Harrison Phillips today. Hey, my issue with this team outside of the pass catchers when I was looking at the roster is the interior defensive line next to Quinn and Williams because it was rough before they made that trade for Harrison Phillips. We're talking about Byron Cowart, J to Filet and Derek Naughty. Apparently Leonard Taylor, who is a College free agent 2024 has had a decent camp, but like that's what we were doing with the other interior guys. It's like, I don't know. Leonard Taylor's looks pretty.
- [81:23]
Derek Classen
Good.
- [81:23]
Robert Mays
Good. So having like a functional body in Harrison Phillips now to play next to Quinn and Williams makes me feel better about this group because I was genuinely concerned about the state of that interior offense or interior defensive.
- [81:36]
Dave Hellman
Line. You're going to sleep just fine.
- [81:38]
Robert Mays
Buddy. That's right. That's right. I mean, listen, I'm never sleeping that well this time of year, but I am going to sleep a little bit easier. About the jets after making that trade. You know, it's not a they didn't give up much to do it and I think this is a LI or Vikings team that's trying to save a little bit of money based on the amount of money that they've spent in free agency. It's a crowded room there because of the guys that Minnesota signed, so I think it's a smart thing. Darren Moogie calling a team that has a little bit of a glut there just because they were in a rough spot. I support this. They traded for Juwan Briggs from the Browns earlier today. Also as defensive line depth. But based on their recent history, I think I feel a little bit better about Harrison Phillips than I do about Juwan Brad.
- [82:16]
Derek Classen
Briggs. Yeah, I don't care about a Brown's defensive.
- [82:18]
Dave Hellman
Tackle.
- [82:19]
Derek Classen
Sorry. But I do. This is like the best kind of trade that you can make in August. Like, it's like they filled. You're not again, you're not leveraging that much to go do it. And you feel what is other than receiver, pretty clearly the biggest spot on your roster that needed a little bit of help. And like, for as much as I love their backers, they are more run and hit and find the running back type of guys in space and they are not necessarily the takeout. Quincy Williams can do a little bit of it, but they are not the biggest guys. And so having Harrison Phillips to help them there I think could go a long.
- [82:47]
Robert Mays
Way. Let's get to what we're watching in the first month of the season with the New York Jets. Derek, why don't you kick us off? What are you watching in the first month of the.
- [82:55]
Derek Classen
Year? Well, we've joked a little bit about what the jets offense is going to be. You know, they have all these running backs, they're going to run the ball, they're going to be a service academy offense. But I think that really is a genuine question of like, what is the jets offense supposed to look like? Because with Tanner Angstrom, he comes from the Lions and the difference in the two quarterbacks could not be any wider. Jared Goff does a lot of things well. The two things he does not do are move outside of the pocket and throw a go ball. He does not do either of those things very well. The only two things I'm pretty sure Justin Fields can do right now are run and move outside of the pocket and throw a go ball. So I just like how they construct the offense around those two widely different skill sets is pretty fascinating to me. Obviously I think there will be some overlap with the run game, especially some of their under center stuff. But like the passing game, it could be worlds apart and I just have no idea about like what that's going to actually look.
- [83:47]
Robert Mays
Like. My assumption is we're borrowing very heavily from the play action elements of the Detroit Lions passing game and not necessarily the like ripped balls over the middle play action elements. But just having play action be a foundational part of what this passing game looks like. If you look at Tanner Angstron's history, it's actually kind of interesting. Like, so he started his coaching career in 2005 as like a QC for the San Diego Toreros when Jim Harbaugh was.
- [84:12]
Derek Classen
There. I thought you were gonna say the.
- [84:14]
Robert Mays
Chargers. So he actually started his career with Jim Harbaugh and then spent a ton of time at San Diego over like a, you know, almost like a decade long period. And so in his bones he's kind of like a Jim Harbaugh guy. And then in 2020 he was a QC coach, I believe for the Fresno State football team when Kaylin DeBoer and Frank and Ryan Grub were there. And this was during the COVID season and like four games into the year he got hired by the dog by the Detroit Lions as like one of their QC coaches and then was retained by Dan Campbell. And so his background is like as a Harbaugh guy and then he was the passing game coordinator for the Lions. And so I think a lot of like what he believes in his bones about football, football is kind of drilled into what that Jim Harbaugh stuff looks like. And so run game, play action, like that's who we're going to be. I do think that is going to be. Those will be the defining traits of like what the Detroit of what the New York jets offense looks like this year. That is my.
- [85:12]
Dave Hellman
Guess. That's music to my ears.
- [85:14]
Derek Classen
Honestly. And that kind of tracks like a lot of what Justin Field should be good at is a lot of like the older Greg Roman type stuff. Like when I think about like what Colin Kaepernick had been for them, even some of the stuff that like Roman was doing in Buffalo with Tyrod Taylor, like a lot of that stuff actually does track. So that's, that's.
- [85:29]
Robert Mays
Interesting. And then their offensive line coach, it was the tight ends coach for the Lions last year. And obviously the tight ends coach is involved in like how you construct the running game. And so I'm sure there's going to be a lot of carryover and hopefully the diversity of that running game and because that's the special sauce for what the Lions can do is that their offensive line is so good they can run anything they want want. Like it's an incredibly diverse run game. A lot of outside zone, like that is the foundation of it. But they can get to whatever and you'd hope in the best case scenario here, Derek, with this offensive line we have a similar sort of feel to what the jets running game.
- [86:04]
Derek Classen
Is. I really hope so. Cause I mean they're. We already talked about the passing game. They need the run game to open everything up. It's going to be a lot more flood than a lot of those dig routes than the Lions, that's for.
- [86:13]
Robert Mays
Sure. Whatever the offense is, Dave, they have a very tough early season slate. We're going to find out a lot about this New York jets offense very quickly over the first month of the.
- [86:23]
Dave Hellman
Season. It was beautiful when I heard y' all wanted to talk about Tanner Instra, because this all sounds good. The theory of what they could be or what they want to do, it sounds great in August. They need to have it. They don't need to have it figured out, but they need to be ready for the start of this season because September is Pittsburgh, Buffalo at Tampa, at Miami. And I think that's, that's such a fun gauntlet of, of different types of good defense. Like, you've got your Steelers who have your overwhelming edge in T.J. watt that a rookie Armand member is going to have to deal with. By the way, you got the Bills. We just did a whole thing about how the Bills have been good for so long. Then you got Todd Bowles and all the crazy shit that he likes to do and Anthony Weaver down in Miami, who is a great piece of this modern coaching tree, this new school of defense with the disguises and the sim pressures and all that good st. So Tanner Ing Strand and Justin Fields both are going to get the kitchen sink thrown at him in the first month of the season. So I, I, I hope you're ready for it, both of.
- [87:30]
Derek Classen
Y'.
- [87:30]
Robert Mays
All. Let's get to what counts as a successful season for the New York Jets. In your mind, what is success for Aaron Glenn's first.
- [87:39]
Dave Hellman
Year? Dave, Derek and I have actually talked about this on previous shows and like, we're both, we're both just kind of intrigued and excited by the jets, which, that's a start, by the way. Just being like, thinking the jets are fun is a great start. That would be a great place to start for the New York jets is they were bad and a bummer for the most of the last, like four years and especially during the Aaron Rodgers catastrophe. Like, you can be bad, you can be a bummer. You shouldn't be both. And that's what the jets were. So just Aaron Glenn getting here and doing a restart with some exciting young players and hopefully getting the most out of the established players on defense. Defense. It's just nice to think that the jets are, are a fun, intriguing team again. And if Glenn can get the defense back to like, great status, like if they breathe fire again the way they did a couple years ago, that would be icing on the.
- [88:35]
Robert Mays
Cake. Yeah, I don't think the wins and losses are what matters here. I think this is about how we're feeling about this team by the end of the season. Like if we can just restore the vibes in Florham park from what they have felt like. Like if we get proof of concept in the things this team is trying to be. The run game, the physicality and intensity on defense, the young players Flash, Fashanu, Memboo, Mason, Taylor, Malachi, Moore. If that's what this team feels like by the end and we're like, man, the jets play a certain way. Like you feel this team when you play the jets, even if there are limitations and imperfections about the personnel in certain key areas, that to me feels like a win. Even if it's a 6 and.
- [89:21]
Derek Classen
11 season, be the yes, be the 6 and 11 or 7 and 10 team that everybody loves. If the defense is hitting and playing really well again, if the offense is not good but a headache to deal with and then we all come out of it at the end feeling good about whatever Aaron Glenn is doing in terms of putting guys together or just making sure that his game management is all very good. If they are the team that have a scrappy 7 and 10 season and then by the end or by this time next year we're picking them as like the sneaky 11 wins team that we all want to do. Like how we think about like the Cardinals and teams like that. That to me is success for a Jets team in year.
- [89:56]
Robert Mays
One. We're going to take one more quick break and then get back with the New England Patriots. Everyone deserves to be connected. That's why T Mobile and US Cellular are joining forces. Switch to T Mobile and save up to 20% versus Verizon by getting built in.
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Derek Classen
Benefits. They leave a.
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Robert Mays
Out. Check the math@t mobile.com switch and now T mobile is in US cellular stores. Savings versus Comparable Verizon plans. Plus the cost of optional benefits. Plan features and taxes and fees vary. Savings with three plus lines include third line free via monthly bill.
- [90:29]
Derek Classen
Credits. Credit stop if you cancel any lines. Qualifying credit.
- [90:31]
Robert Mays
Required. Oh, could this vintage store be any cuter?
- [90:37]
Dave Hellman
Right. And the best part, they accept.
- [90:39]
Derek Classen
Discover. Except Discover in a little place like this. I don't think so.
- [90:43]
Dave Hellman
Jennifer. Oh.
- [90:44]
Derek Classen
Yeah. Huh. Discover is accepted where I like to.
- [90:46]
Robert Mays
Shop. Come on baby, get with the times.
- [90:50]
Derek Classen
Right. So we shouldn't get the parachute.
- [90:52]
Robert Mays
Pants. These are making a comeback I.
- [90:56]
Dave Hellman
Think. Discover is accepted at 99 of.
- [90:59]
Robert Mays
Places that take credit cards. Nationwide, based on the February 2025 Nielsen.
- [91:03]
Dave Hellman
Report. If your home feels loud after.
- [91:05]
Robert Mays
The holidays, reset it right now at Pura. Get a free free pur home diffuser when you subscribe for 12 months. Clean design, effortless control and a calmer space in.
- [91:15]
Dave Hellman
Minutes. Limited time.
- [91:16]
Robert Mays
Only. Shop now@pura.com. Our preview for the 2025 New England Patriots, their off season in 60 seconds hired Mike Vral as their head coach, Josh McDaniels as their offensive coordinator, Terrell Williams, formerly of the Lions, as their defensive coordinator. Also have Thomas Brown, Todd Downing, Doug Marone and Ben McAdoo on their staff. Spent a ton of money in free agency. Mil Williams 4 years 104 million 63 guaranteed Stefan Diggs 3 years 63 million 26 guaranteed Carlton Davis 3 years 54 million 34 guaranteed Harold Landry 3 years 43 million 26 guaranteed Robert Spillane 3 years 33 million Morgan Moses on a 3 year $24 million deal Smaller deals for Garrett Bradbury, Mack Hollins, Clavin Chasen they lost Jacoby Brissette, Jonathan Jones, Devon Godshaw and Joe Milton this off season in a variety of signings and trade trades in the draft. Will Campbell in the 4th sorry, Will Campbell, 4th overall Trayvon Henderson, 2nd round 38th overall wide receiver Kyle Williams in the 3rd round center slash guard Jared Wilson in the 3rd round Craig Woodson the safety and Joshua Farmer the defensive tackle, both in the fourth round Derek, I think I know your answer to this, but what are you most excited about in watching the 2025 New England.
- [92:30]
Derek Classen
Patriots? Well, if I was being really obnoxious, I would say Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis, but I'm not going to do that. I'm going to say year two of Drake May in what feels like like a more real offense than last year. I think like I went into last year being really excited about Drake May the player, but you looked at the roster he was given, especially on the offensive line, and it was just like what and like I think Alex Van Pelt was a fine play caller, but he was also a relatively like he was not a very high profile play caller in the way that I we all know that Josh McDaniels can be and has called very good offenses. So Drake may getting what feels like more of a real chance with potentially some more explosive players behind him, a left tackle that is probably not going to get him killed to the same.
- [93:09]
Robert Mays
Degree. Agree he's an NFL offensive line hopefully. Even if it doesn't come together, even if it all doesn't Alex Van Pelt was fine last year. That year we have disaster situations for quarterbacks in a variety of different ways. Sometimes it can be structural and situational. That was not the case with the Patriots last year. Like they were not embarrassing in how this thing was put together. The offensive line was the reason that the New England Patriots were a horrendous situation for a young quarterback. It is one of the worst offensive lines, talent wise I can remember watching in the league in quite some time. Even if it doesn't hit this year, it is not going to be.
- [93:45]
Derek Classen
That. It's not. And like what the part of this that I'm most excited about is the down to down. Even though like the end numbers for that team were not very good, the down to down for the passing game was like good. Like Drake May's success rate was like league average ish. And for among rookie quarterbacks over the past couple of decades, it was actually one of the better marks in the league in the just that the explosive plays weren't really there and then he was still taking a good number of sacks, getting some turnovers and stuff like that. But if he can get a little bit more help not getting obliterated in the pocket and then maybe Stefan Diggs makes a few plays, maybe Kyle Williams really steps up and makes a few plays. Maybe Travion Henderson takes a screen or two and really pops it for a touchdown. Like that can be the real difference of this offense going from. Okay, they're decent at getting us five yards. Can you get 15? That's to me the difference.
- [94:30]
Robert Mays
Difference? Yeah. The fact that this was even a respectable offense. When you look at some of the numbers after Drake May got in there with the state of the offensive line and the pass catchers being Hunter Henry, Demario Hunter Henry, Pop Douglas and K Sean Booty, I think there's reason to believe in even league average circumstances, Dave, that Drake May can take a significant step and be one of those guys that we're really excited to watch each.
- [94:54]
Dave Hellman
Week. I mean it's a classic case of a team just throwing resources at the wall because have the cap space and the draft capital. Like when you're that bad, you pick at the top of every round. You can sign a bunch of free agents and in the ideal world where Drake May becomes one of these franchise quarterbacks and he's still quarterbacking the Patriots in 10 years, like we'll look back on this team and be like they were pretty bad by like the standard that we have now. You know, like it reminds me you go back and look at the end, it's not a one to one because Drew Brees was not a second year player. But like the supporting cast in New Orleans, when Sean Payton and Drew Brees got there, it evolved so much and became such a more high powered thing. But if this is the starting point for who we hope that Drake may can be, it's enough to unlock that. And then three, five years from now we'll worry about putting him with, you know, his all pro caliber tech.
- [95:54]
Robert Mays
Talent. It reminds me of like the 2019.
- [95:56]
Ad Read Host
Bills.
- [95:57]
Robert Mays
Right. The Bills spent less money because.
- [95:59]
Dave Hellman
Josh was a younger.
- [96:00]
Robert Mays
Player. Yeah, he was a second year player. And they went from like Robert Foster to John Brown and Cole Beasley and that may not seem that important. And I know 31 year old Steph Diggs will talk about this and Kyle Williams, but there is a chance that we see a significant step with this group. Even if there are no proven stars that have been added to the the equation.
- [96:20]
Dave Hellman
Here. That is so good because there was a time where John Brown in Buffalo was like, everybody was excited about that. And that seems crazy now because the standard is that much higher in Buffalo, but you got to start.
- [96:31]
Robert Mays
Somewhere. Dave, what are you most excited about watching with this version of the.
- [96:36]
Dave Hellman
Patriots? Well, since Derek didn't mention it, I'll just say when you make over the defense the way that they did, like there's plenty to be excited about. It starts with the corner corners like Christian Gonzalez and then Carlton Davis. You just got two guys that can man up and make life easier on everybody else. Especially Gonzalez, obviously. I mean we think of him as a truly ascending guy who's on that short list of great corners. Having two guys like that just makes life easier on everybody else. And I really felt like Mike Vrabel walked into the front office with Elliot Wolf when he got there and he was like, just bring me a bunch of dickheads. And I mean that as a compliment, but that's like that's what they did. I mean, I mean it's, it is not a surprise to me at all that Harold Landry is on this team after spending so much time in Tennessee with Mike Vrabel. That's a reunion. That makes sense. Coaches love to make vibe signings. Like guys, you get one, yeah.
- [97:31]
Robert Mays
You get like one vibe signing with somebody that you know from a previous stop. And Harold Landry was the.
- [97:36]
Dave Hellman
One. Bring me the guy that plays the way I like to play, that understands the tone that I want to set and, and we'll go from there. Robert Spillane. I love Robert Spillane. He's such a fun player. He's violent, he plays like he just wants to get in a car crash. It's so great. Milton Williams, I mean we can quibble, we can argue about the contract if we want to and I think that is a worthwhile conversation. But if he does his job the way he's supposed to, again a guy that can affect the pocket move quarterbacks off their spot even he's a disappointment as a first round pick. But Caleb on Chase on had a nice five sack season for the Raiders last year. So I just feel like they just threw money at a bunch of guys and they're like yeah, bring, bring some attitude, bring some nastiness. And again, this isn't the final form of what we want our defense to be, but it could be a really nice starting.
- [98:27]
Derek Classen
Point. And I think too to me like the biggest potential return is not even biggest addition they're going to get is not even a new player. It's that Christian Barmore is hopefully healthier than he was last year. Obviously we didn't really get Christian Barmore outside of the like two games at the end of last year and he obviously didn't look like himself dealing with a lot of health issues. So if he comes into this season looking more like the Christian Barmore that we thought was maybe like a 90% of Chris Jones type of player, then yeah, that next to Milton Williams is like a pretty terrifying combo given what they were playing with last.
- [98:58]
Robert Mays
Year. If the interior pass rush with those two guys and then Keon White, wherever he ends up lining up. I do think that there's something to be excited about with that group and we'll talk about about the investments and what they mean for like the long term outlook of this team. But Carlton Davis and Christian Gonzalez just locking people down on the outside like that is potentially in the cards. Like they have enough pieces on this defense even if there are still some holes for me to be able to squint and say like all right, I, I can see this group being feisty, annoying, a tough out every single week for whoever's playing against them. Let's get to the swing points for the 2025 New England Patriots where this season could potentially pick pivot for New England. I'll start this off. I'm just curious about how good the offensive line is going to be. I don't think it's going to be great by any stretch, but do all of these things fall into place where we have an offensive Line that's like middle of the road. It would just be such a far cry from what it was a year ago. Obviously you drafted Will Campbell in the, in the first round. You drafted him fourth overall. He's with said so much of this in the pre draft process about Will Campbell and some of his physical limitations and you even seen some of that a little bit in the preseason like, like he's going to have to get there in pass protection just based on how he's built but what he has been in the run game and how they have weaponized him in the run game. I'm excited about watching what him and Jared Wilson potentially look like next to one another. Garrett Bradbury is a stopgap center, we know that. But then you have Morgan Moses at right tackle now who is the quintessential. We just need competent right tackle play for a year player that you can sign and then you still have Mike on one who they played, paid a ton of money at right guard. Like this group if they can be the 15th best offensive line in football and we can really weaponize some of these guys in the run game with Trayvon Henderson, with her, Andre Stevenson. I'm excited to see how this goes because if this is a solid offensive line, I do think that the New England Patriots could be a compelling, interesting team. For most of the.
- [100:56]
Dave Hellman
Season. I just worry about how well everything, how well the return on investment goes because we've seen this before and I brought up the Steelers earlier in the show, but it's an example that comes to my mind because it's really exciting when you draft tackles with high picks and maybe this will happen to the jets too for that matter. But Broderick Jones to this point in his career hasn't been the guy that you wanted. Troy Fatano didn't have a rookie season. I mean shit.
- [101:26]
Robert Mays
Happens. It's.
- [101:26]
Dave Hellman
Football. We see this all the time where half the rookie picks in the league, maybe more. You're going to go into next year being like, well we need him to take that step. Maybe that's Will Campbell, maybe, maybe it's the fact that Garrett Bradbury is already struggling in camp and that's a situation where you don't even feel good about it after making the investment, which I think most people saw coming. I think two rookies working on the left side together, Campbell and Jared Wilson. I think it'll be better than last year cause it would be hard not to be. But it's easy to fall for that, that thing every. It's easy to fall for it every off season where you're like, well, these guys are new and therefore better. And that's, that's not always the case. It's not always that.
- [102:10]
Derek Classen
Easy. I think it just depends on the ceiling. Right. Like, it will be better. It like for whatever. I've, I've been a little bit hesitant about what Will Campbell might be at his best. I'm pretty confident his worst play is a lot better than what we got out of Darian Low last year. And even like Morgan Moses I think is going to help. Like Jared Wilson should be some degree of upgrade for the revolving door they had at left guard year. Like, it's, it will be some degree of better, but is it going from 32 to 26 or 32 to 19?
- [102:40]
Robert Mays
That's. That's.
- [102:41]
Derek Classen
Always.
- [102:42]
Dave Hellman
Yeah. Realistically. Realistically, how high do you think this unit can jump? I'd be surprised if it's. I. I'd be, oh, I think.
- [102:51]
Robert Mays
It could be better than that. I think it be better than.
- [102:53]
Derek Classen
Me, but I'm not betting on it to be.
- [102:54]
Robert Mays
That. No, I think it can be better than that. I, I think that they can be like the 20th best offensive line in the league. League if things go relatively okay for this group. But I also, I completely understand that. Just because you invested the resources doesn't mean that's going to happen. Derek, what is your swing point for the 2025 New England.
- [103:14]
Derek Classen
Patriots? It's funny that we've said a lot of like, man, there's so much new cool stuff around Drake May. And then also both of our swing points are like, how good is the offensive line? And then mine is just, are any of these skill players at actually good? Like Stefan Diggs is getting a little bit older at this point. I think he was fine in Houston, but he's a little bit older coming off of some of the injuries. I think that is a little bit of a concern. Kyle Williams, I think we all liked Kyle Williams as a draft prospect, but rookie third round pick, I'm not going to put like that much into that, especially given all the, the draft picks they threw at it the last couple years and haven't really worked out. Hunter Henry is like a fine tight end, but he's competent at best. And then at the right running back position, that is actually the one I will say I have some degree of confidence in. I think Travion Henderson is good and like that's not just the preseason stuff. He was the guy coming out of college really explosive and typically with a lot of those, like speed oriented backs, it's like they're kind of just home run hitters. But Henderson does have decent vision. He's tougher than it would look for a guy who is like his size. He's a really good pass protector. He's a really good pass catcher. Like, he's just. It feels like he has the mix of floor and explosives you want. But in terms of the actual pass catchers, we'll.
- [104:21]
Robert Mays
See. I can get there with this group though. Like, if Kyle Williams is competent as like a number two outside receiver by the time we get to the middle of this season, if Steph Diggs still has something left in the tank, if Hunter Henry is just Hunter Henry again, and if Trayveon Henderson makes good on some of the flashes that we've seen, I think the pass protection point is a really important one. Like some of these guys who come in as these explosive backs don't contribute in the passing game because they struggle in pass protection. Trevion Henderson, and he'll put his head in there, right? He is not afraid in those moments and he plays with good awareness in those situations. Like, I'm excited about what he can be in that role. And so same with the offensive line, where I don't think we can necessarily bank on this group being anything but. There is a path there for them to sneak up on people and surprise us a little.
- [105:08]
Dave Hellman
Bit. I still think it almost completely hinges on Diggs, to be honest with you, not to be like functional, because this same group of players cobbled together 3,000 passing yards last year. Like they played full seasons and they caught 60 balls or whatever. But for this thing to ascend, I think it depends almost entirely on what Stefan Diggs has left in the tank. And he doesn't need to be an All Pro. He doesn't need to be close to what he was at his best in Buffalo. But you still need a wide.
- [105:40]
Robert Mays
Receiver.
- [105:40]
Dave Hellman
1. Even if he's one of the worst wide receiver ones in the NFL, you still need. And Diggs had 500 yards when he got hurt halfway through the year last year. Like, he was playing.
- [105:50]
Robert Mays
Fine. He's still.
- [105:51]
Dave Hellman
Happy. Yes, he was playing fine. And so he's, he's older. And I would say the same thing about Stefan that I said about Tyreek earlier. Other than the fact that he's also coming off of an injury to his, to his knee, not his wrist, like the, you know, his legs, which he uses to get down the field. So I'm, I'm a little less confident that Stefan Diggs can tap back into the fountain of youth, but, but if he does, then I think that matters a.
- [106:16]
Robert Mays
Lot. The fact that he's just been on the field and practicing from the start of training camp, like this is not very sort of a ramp up period. Like he has been part of this for most of the summer and I do think that removes a little bit of the ambiguity about what is he coming off of the acl? Maybe he's not a hundred percent, but some of these guys, it's like, ah, we're hoping he'll be ready for week one. You know, we're optimistic. He's, he's hit all the benchmarks on the timeline as part of the recovery process. There's been none of that with Stefan Diggs. Like, like they, Mike Vrabel got pissed off last week when somebody asked him if there was a chance that Diggs would miss week one. He's like, what are you talking about? He's been out here practicing the entire time. And I think Diggs said something where it wasn't a crazy question from whoever asked it, but they dismissed the idea entirely because he has been so healthy this offseason despite coming off of that acl. So that part of it has gone as good as it possibly could have so.
- [107:09]
Ad Read Host
Far.
- [107:10]
Robert Mays
Far. Derek, what is keeping you up at night about the 2025 New England.
- [107:16]
Derek Classen
Patriots? There are parts of this defense I really like. Obviously, if Christian Barmore is healthy, Milton Williams I think was a fine swing. Keon White, I absolutely adore in, in terms of his play style, but off the edge on third down, I'm a little bit dubious of what's going on here. Like Harold Landry is okay, but that again felt more like, I know this guy. I just want him in the building to help us establish some stuff type of play. Player Clavin Chase on. I know he had five sacks last year. I think that was as fake as it gets. And then after that you just don't have that many guys. Like, it's like Anthony Jennings, who I love Anthony Jennings on second and.
- [107:51]
Robert Mays
Four. He might not make the team. Yeah, like that he was playing in the fourth quarter of the preseason.
- [107:55]
Derek Classen
Game because all he can do is set the edge and like he's really good at that, but he doesn't really get after the passer whatsoever. And so like they just don't have a lot outside of these guys. And again, I really like Keon White and he is like by definition an edge player, but he's £285, he's going to go through you, he's not going around you. And so I just wonder if they have enough of the quickness, enough of the speed that you would want on a third and seven to really get after the.
- [108:17]
Robert Mays
Quarterback. I'm really hoping with better interior players we can see Keon White maintain some of the flashes that we saw from him early in the season. Like I am still a pretty big Keon White believer with better players around him him. And so I'm really hoping that Christian Barmore coming back and Milton Williams getting dropped into the mix here can give us a better version of Keon White. Speaking of Milton Williams, my keeping me up at night about the Patriots, it's not that big because I don't think the downside is that significant with some of the deals that they've handed out. I just worry that when we look at some of the investments that they've made in free agency, these are going to be contracts a year from now where none of them are good contracts. Every single one of them are like, ah, you know, maybe we were a little bit aggressive in doing that. They mil Williams, I think is a good player in the role that he was in with the Eagles last year. Now you are asking him to be a centerpiece of your defense in a full time role. And what he got paid in free agency, there's no way, almost, there's almost no possible way unless he's Chris Jones for this to be a positive ROI for the Patriots. And it's okay to do that every once in a while when you're a team that doesn't have a lot of talent and has a shitload of cap space, but eventually you're going to need guys you're getting surplus value on somewhere along the way. And I think that million Williams contract, the deal they handed out to Carlton Davis, even in the moment, that was one where it's like we're handing out contracts to third contract corners when we're multiple years away. Like, how does that deal fit into what the timeline is supposed to be for the Patriots rates? And I know that they have an astronomical amount of cap space. They have like $56 million, I believe right now that they'll be able to carry over even though they don't have much cap space next year. So this isn't something that's really going to be preventing you from doing much next offseason if you still want to do it. But you still shouldn't be in the business of handing out contracts that you're going to be regretting within a calendar year. And I just. A little bit of me is worried that that's where we're going to be with some of the deals that the Patriots hand it.
- [110:20]
Dave Hellman
Out. The thing that set off the alarm bell for me was, remember, Milton Williams was a Carolina Panther for like 90 seconds. And then the Patriots were like, what's that? All right, we'll give you this much more. And Milton Williams, rightly so, was like, yeah, never mind, I'm a pat. Let's do this. 104 million. And when you do that, like when you leapfrog another team and take what was going to be a done deal off the table to get a guy, that to me screams, or at least it better scream, that you have such a clarity of vision for who this guy is and what he's going to do, and he's going to be our Chris Jones. And that's why it's okay that Chris Jones is the only defensive tackle in the NFL that makes more money than him. And that's. That's contract size, salary, and guarantees. Like, he's right below Chris Jones in everything. And if you just did that because you had the money to burn, I think that's really stupid. Even if you could afford it, I think that's really stupid where you're just like, well, we gotta do something. I. Or. Or not. Or you could shore up something else. You could go sign two or three B level edge rushers instead of just spending that money to say that you did. Now, if Milton Williams really is that guy, then we.
- [111:40]
Robert Mays
Can.
- [111:40]
Dave Hellman
That. That's great. And I do think he's a good player, but the process alarmed me a little.
- [111:45]
Robert Mays
Bit. Bit? Yeah. I don't think that there was that level of intentionality to it. I think that was the best player available in free agency. And we have $100 million in cap space. And I think because free agency has gotten worse, the quality of free agency has gotten worse, and teams have gotten smarter, we have forgotten that the history of free agency is just littered with terrible contracts. And I don't think these are going to be terrible necessarily, but this idea of we are paying the 10th best player at his position, like the first best player at his position, that's like 20 free agent thinking and spending. And I think there was a lot of that going on for the Patriots. Again, they have a ton of money. We'll see if it actually hampers things that they can do moving forward. But that was the general vibe to the free agency period for the Patriots. It was old school in a bad way. I mean that pejoratively. I said this. You need to find value somewhere in order to offset some of this. And if they by the end of the season have a quarterback, a left tackle, a superstar corner and a Kyle Williams that surprises on rookie deals, that's fine. Like that combination of everything is okay, but you need to hit on draft picks and find value somewhere. When you're not getting value on some of these big money players that you're signing, it's just going to be really hard for those guys to give you again positive return on those contracts because the contracts are so rich. Rich. Dave, what are you watching in the first month of the season for the New England.
- [113:13]
Dave Hellman
Patriots? So I talked a lot about Mike Vrabel's attitude with the additions on defense, but Mike Vrabel is not going to call this defense. That would be Terrell Williams who comes over from Detroit. He was only in Detroit for a year after leaving Mike Vrabel's Tennessee staff with with the Titans though he was the D line coach there with Vrabel for several years. But this is his first time I'm calling a defense being the ultimate authority on that side of the ball. Obviously Vrabel is going to be heavily involved, but Vrabel is not a game day play caller. So I'm just curious basically to see what it looks like I saw talking to reporters at training camp. He very, very as you might expect, he's like we're going to be violent, we're going to fly the ball, we're going to do all that like at you know, like we've heard from every defensive coordinator ever. But what does that actually look like? What DNA path I guess are you going to follow? I'm curious to see me too.
- [114:13]
Robert Mays
Because what they did coverage wise they played a decent amount of man when Mike Ray was in Tennessee with Shane Bowen on third down like they were a pretty heavy man coverage team but not to the extent that Aaron Glenn's Lions teams were. And so how heavily they decide to lean into that, especially because of the corner talent that they have. Derek, that'll be a big question I have as we're watching the early part of this year. Like what is the identity and how how in your face we're putting hands on you is it going to.
- [114:37]
Derek Classen
Be and they should because the Titans also when Shane Bowen was calling the plays, when Terrell Williams and Mike Vra were there they did do also a good amount of the we're sending sim pressures. We're doing all the two. A lot of the stuff that we've talked about with the modern defenses and they did a lot of that. But again, when you have what the third and like ninth best outside cornerbacks in the league together, just play man. Like just run together with people. Like there's no need to do all this other fancy stuff. Like I think the reason we've seen a lot of that other stuff in the league is there just aren't as many corners who can run with guys in man coverage. But shit, when you have two of them, just do it. And so that's kind of what I'm hoping for. And especially if the pass rush, especially from the interior is as good as we want it to be and can like if we're playing a bunch of man and the interior is like immediately flushing quarterbacks out of the pocket and we're just going into scramble drill mode. If you just hope that you can like throw a couple of loopers to make sure you go catch the quarterback, that is a good way to have good third down.
- [115:30]
Robert Mays
Defense. Yeah. And I think that we always say it should be an expression of your players. Those are the players that they have. So I'm really looking forward to what this ends up looking like. One thing to mention here, Kyle Duggar is apparently on the trade block. Jordan Schultz reported that a little bit earlier today and so we'll see what happens there. But he may be one of the odd men out if they are kind of changing their identity of what they want to be defensively. My answer to this is when I'm watching the first month of the season is just the offensive version of what they've just said. What is a Josh McDaniels offense in 2025? Like what is Josh McDaniels gap year that he spent, you know, kind of figuring out what the next version of this would be with him as an offensive coordinator. What is the final expression of that? I don't know the answer. Like are we going to see a little bit of evolution? Are we going to see a little bit more flexibility? Like what are the ideas that Josh McDaniels is trying to channel in his next go around as an offensive coordinator? Derek, I'm very excited to see.
- [116:22]
Derek Classen
What that I don't know either. I think there are two things that I definitely want to say about it. First of all, Josh McDaniels is used to being able to put a lot on the quarterback. And we've seen that when he can't do that, whether it's in Denver or with, with the Las Vegas last a couple of years ago, the offense suffers for it. I think Drake Macon handled that though. Like even in the Alex Van Pelt offense last year, they put some, they put a decent amount on his shoulders in terms of being able to see the field pre snap and get everybody aligned and all that stuff. And so I think putting that on his shoulders, there's going to be some amount of ups and downs because he's a 22 year old second year player, but I think he can at least handle it and I think that that unlocks the offense. I also just want to see how much they run Drake May like Drake May had 5, 600 rushing yards last year, but almost all of it was scrambles and that's, that's probably going to be part of the offense again. But do they weaponize him a little bit more on third and two or in the red zone or whatever it is like that is the part the of it that I kind of want to see a little bit.
- [117:15]
Robert Mays
More. Dave, in your mind, what counts as a successful season for the New England.
- [117:21]
Dave Hellman
Patriots? I thought up a more specific example than the one I told y' all during pre production and it's, it goes like this. At some point in like late October, maybe even mid November. Yeah, they play the jets in mid November. Whatever TV show you prefer to watch, whether like whatever morning show that talks about the NFL, somebody's going to look up and go, don't look now, but the New England Patriots have won their last three games. Why isn't anybody talking about this team that is a successful season for the New England Patriots if Drake May is good and this team is frisky late in the year and somebody's saying nobody knows that the pats have won three out of five and they're above.500 in November, that would be a successful season for the the.
- [118:09]
Robert Mays
Patriots. Yeah, this team again is like beyond wins and losses to me is Drake May like a dude in these better circumstances. That's the number one thing for me because I think that will drive exactly what you're talking about, Dave. And then other than that, what sort of building blocks are we looking at with these young players? Are we at a spot by the end of the 2025 season where Drake May feels like a dude and then you've got eight to 10 guys that you feel good about rolling into 2026? May, Barmore, Gonzalez, Wallace, Keon White, Milton Williams. Two or three of the rookies hit the offensive line gels and it's like, okay, we have a foundation here. We have something to move forward with. I think that combined with May taking a significant step and being one of those dudes that is a successful season for the New England.
- [118:52]
Derek Classen
Patriots. Yeah, it's, it's pretty much the same formula for me. Dig the defense out of whatever gutter they fell into last year. And then Drake May. Look, I think we're so used to seeing the year two two jump, being the, the Lamar Jackson mvp, the, that type of jump, that's probably not going to happen. But I think last year Drake May was 15th or 16th in QBR. If he has a season that gets him to like 11th and we see a little bit of that progress and we're like, okay, he is one of those guys that's an easy win regardless of again, whether they get into the playoffs or not. Doesn't really matter to.
- [119:21]
Robert Mays
Me. All right, that is all we've got for the AFC East. We will be back with our next division preview tomorrow. I believe it is the NFC south, which I'm looking forward to that one. I know it's kind of a weird division, but I'm excited to talk about the Panthers. I'm excited to talk about the Falcons. And you know, this is a Bucks team that has been very good. We won't mention the Saints. I think that's probably the outlier here and the teams we're looking forward to chatting about. But a lot of stuff to get to tomorrow. Very excited about that. Thank you guys for sticking with us. We appreciate it. We'll talk to you tomorrow. The youth mental health crisis is growing and social media is a major driver. Kids are spending up to nine hours a day on screens, often unsupervised, and studies show a direct link to anxiety, depression and even suicidal thoughts. That's where Gab comes in. Gab offers safe phones and watches with no Internet or social media. Just the right tech at the right time. From smart watches for young K to advanced parent managed phones for teens, GAB keeps kids connected.
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Dave Hellman
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Robert Mays
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Dave Hellman
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