The Athletic Football Show – 2025 AFC East Preview (August 21, 2025)
Hosts: Robert Mays, Derrik Klassen, Dave Helman
Theme: Deep-dive analysis, off-season moves, swing factors, “what keeps you up at night,” and success benchmarks for each AFC East team
Episode Overview
The crew breaks down the state of the AFC East in 2025, examining each team’s off-season moves, current roster build, coaching changes, and key questions entering the year. They blend expert Xs and Os with big-picture context, personal insights, and a candid, conversational style. Each team discussion is guided by a structure: what excites them, swing factors, biggest concerns, what to watch early, and what defines a successful season.
BUFFALO BILLS
Offseason Moves & Roster Shifts
- Major contract extensions: Josh Allen, Greg Rousseau, Christian Benford, Khalil Shakir, Terrel Bernard.
- Notable signings: Josh Palmer, Joey Bosa (1 yr deal), Michael Hoecht (suspended 6 games).
- Draft picks: Maxwell Hairston (CB, 30th—knee injury in camp), TJ Sanders, Landon Jackson, Dion Walker.
- Departures: Matt Collins (FA), Kair Elam (trade), a host of smaller signings.
What Excites Them Most [04:14]
- Derrik: “It’s gotta be the offense that has the MVP playing quarterback… Josh Allen… has become pre snap, what he’s become as a decision maker. Still being one of the nastiest runners in the NFL, on top of stuff being able to get taken off his plate with how good the run game is. This offense is a fire-breathing dragon.” [04:14]
- Dave: “He's seeing the matrix, but he's also still an American bison. Right? He's the great white buffalo, guys. He's so fun to watch in addition to having unlocked that extra layer where he's really seeing the game purely.” [05:43]
- Robert: Praises the “no star receiver” approach, creating flexibility (“ball can get spit out to anybody at any time”). Applauds in-season adjustments—heavy six OL sets, morph to more run-heavy identity.
- “They ran 148 plays with six offensive linemen on the field... No other team was above 344. This was just a different sort of offense led by an MVP quarterback.” [06:37]
Memorable Stat:
- Bills had 888 yards on 6-OL plays (1st in NFL), next closest team only had 344 yards. [06:37]
Swing Points for 2025 Bills [09:08]
- Dave: Special teams overhaul
- “My swing point is the special teams... They finished 28th in special teams DVOA last year.” [09:23]
- Worries about new coordinator (Chris Tabor), the impact of the new kickoff rule, punting, and kicker Tyler Bass: “I have a close eye on Tyler Bass... five misses last year, all from 49 and in.” [09:23]
- Robert: Defensive Line Revamp
- “What this defensive line turns into... They threw an astonishing amount of resources at this group this year... There are six new guys who could potentially be a part of this rotation this year.” [12:43]
- Unique types (Bosa, Jackson, Walker, Sanders)—can they finally have the 6–7-deep pass rush needed in January?
Defensive Personnel Concerns [17:13]
- Derrik: The secondary—especially CB2 and safety is the worry: “Their other corner is a guy who was previously good for them and has not been for like three years (Tre’Davious White)... I trust Benford, I trust Taron Johnson... the other three spots I’m a little iffy.” [17:13]
- Heavy reliance on turnovers in recent years: “This team was 24th in defensive success rate last year. They relied on turnovers.” [20:08]
- Dave: Safety play key: “Cole Bishop... my eyes go to him because I have high expectations for him... Good safety play has made such a difference for this team over the course of its run.” [18:55]
What to Watch Early [24:01]
- Growth of young pass-catchers—Keon Coleman, Dalton Kincaid, Josh Palmer. Will any become real difference-makers?
- Robert: “Can the young guys take a small step and can Josh Palmer be enough of a differentiator where we feel really good about this group as a whole by the time we get to the end of the season?” [24:57]
- Osiris Torrence’s expected leap at guard could further solidify the line: “He has had a very nice training camp and it's his time to be the guy.” [27:05]
What Defines a Successful Season? [28:00]
- Dave: “The Bean-McDermott-Allen Bills will be measured by their ability to reach the Super Bowl and preferably win it... My question: What significance does beating the Chiefs play in that?” [28:00]
- Super Bowl or bust, and beating the Chiefs would be especially cathartic for Bills fans.
- Robert: Roster/cap constraints mean this is a prime window.
MIAMI DOLPHINS
Offseason Moves & Roster Shifts
- Key additions: Minka Fitzpatrick (in Jalen Ramsey trade), Darren Waller (un-retired), James Daniels (OG), plus depth pieces.
- Losses: Javon Holland, Calais Campbell, Tyron Armstead.
- Drafted: Kenneth Grant (DT, 13th), Jonāh Sāvae (G, 2nd)—aggressively trying to fix run-game issues.
- QB & O weapon continuity, but aging, fragile roster; negative cap situation looms.
What Excites Them Most [35:14]
- Dave: “If Tua’s healthy and the majority of the pass catchers are healthy... the Dolphins will be entertaining. Like they will be able to score points. They will be a fun team and that's exciting.” [35:14]
- Robert: “I want to watch the next Mike McDaniel Houdini act... Last year, the ways that they shifted that offense because of how teams were playing against them, they faced more cloud coverages last season than any team in football...” [36:38]
- McDaniel keeps morphing offense to survive, but the overall construction remains puzzling. McDaniel is “stringing himself up in a straightjacket and having to get out of it.”
Notable Numbers:
- 6.3 yards/play, .09 EPA/play when Tua is healthy—would be first in NFL over that period (since 2022). [36:38]
- Dead last in NFL in depth of target/air yards due to defenses’ approach—pivoted to underneath efficiency.
Defensive Upside If Healthy [39:38]
- Robert: “If everybody is healthy... I think this could be an incredibly fun unit. Chop Robinson already looks like a star, period.” [39:38]
- Derrik: “This could be one of the very best pass rushes... Chop Robinson is their race car type of pass rusher.” [41:20]
- But: Health of Jalen Phillips, Bradley Chubb, and others remains highly questionable.
Swing Points for the Dolphins [43:06]
- Derrik: “...what do we get from these two new guards? Last year, the biggest issue with the offense was they couldn't move people... they have really made a concerted effort to change not just the quality... but the identity at guard.” [43:06]
- Dave: “They were dead last in the league in red zone success rate… 30%—that’s 16% below league average.” [45:04]
- Robert: Run game design is excellent, but "none of that shit matters" if you always get pushed back—tight end run blocking remains a huge weakness. [45:04]
What Keeps Them Up At Night [48:55]
- Derrik: “The glaring one, the one in flashing red lights is the secondary. It's all a bunch of guys who are one old and weren't on the team last year... It's a secondary that they have completely cobbled together.” [48:55]
- Robert: “This was already a Stars and Scrubs roster, but some of the stars are gone... Who are the building blocks on this team?” [51:22]
What to Watch Early [53:58]
- Dave: “Are we burying Tyreek Hill a little bit too early?... Are we sure the Dolphins aren’t just the Snowbird Giants, at least defensively?” [54:27]
- Robert: “How many of the ‘we need this to work’ moves actually work: [Jonāh] Sāvae… Hilton and Melifonwu… the Darren Waller Hail Mary...” [56:42]
- Derrik: “They're trying to hit the nastiest parlay to be a 10-win team...” [57:34] (how many of their longshots have to hit just for Miami to be solidly competitive?)
What Is “Success”? [58:24]
- Dave: “The owner expects this team in the playoffs”—but Dave and Derrik are deeply skeptical about the team’s trajectory or whether a mid-wild card is really success.
- Robert: “What’s really success? Do we at least walk out of this year with Tua reaffirmed as a guy you can win with, and a base of young talent developing?” [59:51]
NEW YORK JETS
Offseason Moves & Roster Shifts
- New staff: Aaron Glenn (HC), Tanner Engstrand (OC), Steve Wilks (DC).
- QB: Signed Justin Fields (2 yrs, $40M, $30M gtd).
- Extended Sauce Gardner, Garrett Wilson. Added Brandon Stephens, Andre Cisco, Josh Reynolds, Josh Meyers.
- Departed: Aaron Rodgers, Devante Adams, D.J. Reed, John Kinlaw, Haason Reddick, Morgan Moses.
- Draft: Armand Membou (OT, 1st), Mason Taylor (TE, 2nd), Azareyeh Thomas (CB, 3rd), Arian Smith (WR, 4th).
What Excites Them Most [64:23]
- Derrik: “Just Aaron Glenn's version of what this jets defense is going to look like... They still have theoretically one of the best corners, you have Quinnen Williams, Quincy Williams... Will McDonald’s an ascending star... if the defense gets turned around a little bit and... they're the 11th best defense, I’m not going to be that surprised.” [64:23]
- Robert: Excited about more aggressive man coverage under Glenn/Wilks, and what they do with wild-card DB additions (Stevens and Cisco).
Offensive ‘New Look’ [69:36]
- Dave: “I just wish they could call Paul Johnson and install the triple option... it looks like they're equipped to do that.” [69:36]
- Excitement about the three-back rotation (Breece Hall, Braylon Allen, Isaiah Davis) and a brawling new offensive line (two high picks at tackle), with Justin Fields giving a new dimension.
Swing Points for the Jets [72:26]
- Dave: “...how good are those two tackles?... If it’s quickly, that's so cool... it could have really big ramifications in all aspects of the offense.” [72:26]
- Derrik/Robert: Justin Fields is “dime store Jalen Hurts”—pocket play/protection is key; finally, maybe, he gets NFL-level pass protection if the line gels. [74:18–75:28]
Nightmares & Constraints [76:25]
- Derrik: “The Jets have one definitively good pass catcher who, to me, is a wide receiver two in an ideal world... Garret Wilson is good, but outside of him, there's nothing to reliably hang your hat on.” [76:25]
- 2–6 on the WR/TE depth chart is “probably the worst in the league”—maybe only the Patriots are close. [77:22]
- Robert: “Pass catchers scare me... run-heavy offense is nice in theory, but you have to make 6–8 plays a game throwing the football in the NFL.” [78:33]
- Dave: “What I lose sleep about is Garrett Wilson potentially being Terry McLaurin... I hope that doesn't happen, because [Wilson]'s so fun.” [79:09]
- Justin Fields’ contract details suggest Jets are investing but protected if it doesn’t work—a low-cost try-out with upside.
What to Watch Early [82:55]
- Can OC Engstrand mesh Justin Fields’ strengths with a play-action-heavy, run-game-first style? How do you merge two polar-opposite QB archetypes (Jared Goff in Detroit system vs. Justin Fields presented here)?
- Expect an offense foundationally built on Harbaugh/Greg Roman influences, play-action/live run game, with heavy Detroit run-game elements.
Defining Success [87:38]
- “Jets should just be fun and intriguing again... restore the vibes in Florham Park... be the 6–11 or 7–10 team that everybody loves because they're young, tough, and interesting.” [89:20]
- Progress from core youth (Fashanu, Membou, Mason Taylor, Malachi Moore), salvage defensive fire under Glenn, get concept buy-in, and become the “sneaky 11-win pick” in '26.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Offseason Moves & Roster Shifts [91:15]
- Huge spending spree: Mil Williams, Stefan Diggs, Carlton Davis, Harold Landry, Robert Spillane, Morgan Moses, plus depth
- New Staff: Mike Vrabel (HC), Josh McDaniels (OC), Terrell Williams (DC), loaded with ex-HCs and playcallers.
- Drafted: Will Campbell (OT, 4th overall), Travion Henderson (RB, 2nd), Kyle Williams (WR, 3rd), Jared Wilson (IOL, 3rd).
- Departures: Jacoby Brissett, Jonathan Jones, Davon Godchaux, Joe Milton.
What Excites Them Most [92:30]
- Derrik: “Year two of Drake May in what feels like more of a real offense... Alex Van Pelt was fine last year but we all know McDaniels can be a high-profile playcaller.” [92:30]
- Praises May’s success rate (even with poor box score stats) as competitive for a rookie, showing “he is one of those guys.” [93:44]
- Defensive duo of Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis as a lockdown pair, but offense is the main intrigue.
- Dave: Notes free agent spending as a Bills 2019 analog: “They were pretty bad by the standards we have now... but if this is the starting point for who we hope May can be, it’s enough to unlock that.” [94:53]
Swing Points [98:57]
- Robert: “How good will the OL be?... If this is a solid offensive line, I do think the Patriots could be a compelling, interesting team for most of the season.” [99:54]
- Can Will Campbell and rookie/young OL fill, finally, field a competent unit and enable May? [100:55]
- Derrik: “Are any of these skill players actually good?... Travion Henderson is the one I'd bet on.” [103:14]
- Diggs’ health, and ability to be even a low-end WR1, is still critical.
What Keeps Them Up At Night [107:15]
- Derrik: “...third down edge rush is an issue... Landry is ok, Chassion’s five sacks were fake, the rest is dicey. Keion White is 285, he’s a go-through-you not a go-around-you end.” [107:15]
- Robert: Aggressive FA contracts (Mil Williams, Davis, etc.)—worried they'll be non-surplus or regrettable; money matters less this season, but surplus value must arrive somewhere (draft hits like Campbell, Williams, etc.). [108:17]
- “Paying the 10th best player at the position like the 1st best... that is 2020s free agent thinking.” [111:44]
What to Watch Early [113:13]
- Dave: New DC Terrell Williams' first playcalling stint—how closely does he track Mike Vrabel’s heavy-man, variable-pressure DNA?
- Derrik/Robert: How assertively do they use two top corners in man coverage? “Just run together with people.” [114:36]
- Robert: What does a Josh McDaniels offense look like in 2025? Is there new schematic flexibility or wrinkles?
Defining Success [117:21]
- Dave: “At some point in October or November, someone will say ‘Don’t look now… Pats are above .500, nobody’s talking about them.’ If May is good and the team is frisky late, that’s a big win.”
- Robert: “Again, beyond wins/losses—if May is a dude... and 8–10 guys emerge as real building blocks by December—combine for a foundational step forward.”
- Derrik: “Drake May making that leap, even if it’s into the 10–11th best QB range, that’s a clear win, playoffs or not.”
NOTABLE QUOTES & MOMENTS
- Dave (Bills, on Allen): “He’s seeing the matrix, but he’s also still an American bison.” [05:43]
- Derrik (Dolphins): “They are the best team in the league, I think, at getting to the wild card graphic.” [38:28]
- Derrik (Jets): “The Jets have one definitively good pass catcher who, to me, is a wide receiver two in an ideal world.” [76:25]
- Robert (Fins offseason): “Watching my buddy with a gambling problem—‘Yeah, man, this could work, but I cannot support how you’re trying to do it.’” [57:40]
- Dave (Jets O): “I just wish they could call Paul Johnson and install the triple option.” [69:36]
- Robert (Pats FA): “Paying the 10th best player at his position like the first best— that’s 2020s free agent thinking.” [111:44]
Key Timestamps
- [01:55] Division overview & tone-setting
- [03:01] Bills offseason recap & main storyline
- [04:14] Bills: What excites the guys most
- [09:08] Bills major swing points
- [17:13] Bills: Primary concerns/“what keeps you up at night”
- [24:01] Bills: What to watch early
- [28:00] Bills: Success definition
- [34:32] Dolphins off-season recap and big storylines
- [35:14] Dolphins: What excites the guys most
- [43:06] Dolphins: Major swing points
- [48:55] Dolphins: Main source of worry (secondary/roster fragility)
- [53:58] Dolphins: Key things to monitor in September
- [58:24] Dolphins: Success definition (and existential crisis)
- [64:23] Jets offseason, major themes, excitement
- [69:36] Jets: Offense (run-first, Fields’ fit, triple option jokes)
- [72:26] Jets: O-line swing point, impact on Fields
- [76:25] Jets: Biggest nightmares/constraining factors (WRs/Tes)
- [82:55] Jets: Early things to monitor (OC Engstrand, mesh with Fields)
- [87:38] Jets: Defining success (just restore the fun!)
- [91:15] Patriots: Offseason summary, coaching overhaul
- [92:30] Patriots: What excites the guys most (May year two)
- [98:57] Patriots: Major swing points (OL, pass-catcher questions)
- [107:15] Patriots: Defensive worries (pass rush)
- [113:13] Patriots: What to watch early (new DC, coverage ID)
- [117:21] Patriots: Success definition
Final Thoughts
Each AFC East team faces a unique inflection point in 2025:
- Bills must push through a closing Super Bowl window, banking on Allen and new defensive talent while worrying about regression and a reworked secondary.
- Dolphins are a house of cards, hoping injury luck and every “maybe” hits; if not, an existential reboot looms.
- Jets have finally reset the energy—fun and physical is the goal, not playoffs yet; proof of concept is key.
- Patriots bank on a Drake May leap and sturdy free-agent scaffolding, hoping new investments can launch a new era (and that the big-money deals don’t implode).
From MVP-tier QBs to wild roster makeovers and desperate talent stabs, the AFC East is loaded with storylines that will echo far beyond 2025, for better or for worse.