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- [00:01]
Robert Mays
Oh, could this vintage store be any cuter?
- [00:03]
David
Right?
- [00:04]
Robert Mays
And the best part?
- [00:05]
Derek
They accept Discover.
- [00:06]
Robert Mays
Except Discover in a little place like this? I don't think so. Jennifer. Oh yeah.
- [00:11]
Derek
Huh? Discover's accepted where I like to shop.
- [00:13]
Robert Mays
Come on baby, get with the times.
- [00:16]
Derek
Right. So we shouldn't get the parachute pants.
- [00:19]
Robert Mays
These are making a comeback, I think.
- [00:23]
David
Discover is accepted at 99% of places.
- [00:26]
Robert Mays
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- [00:36]
Derek
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- [00:42]
Robert Mays
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- [01:03]
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- [01:55]
Robert Mays
Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays. It's NFC North Preview Day. It's a great day. One of my favorite days on the show every single year. Obviously teams that I know extremely well, spent a ton of time with, including the team I root for every single day. Really, really enjoyed this conversation with Derek and Dave about the NFC North. Let's just get to it right now. It's always a special day on the Athletic Football when we get to the NFC north preview about five years ago now, Derek, which is crazy to think about. The NFC north preview was the first ever show on the Athletic Football show feed and so this feels like a little bit of a birthday every year that we do this. Today is my birthday when you guys are going to be listening to this. So me and the Athletic football show celebrating the same birthday today.
- [02:47]
Derek
Which. Which Bears season was that? So was that going into 2019?
- [02:53]
Robert Mays
That was going into 2020.
- [02:54]
Derek
Into 2020. Okay.
- [02:56]
Robert Mays
Yeah. So I believe that was the Andy Dalton year.
- [02:59]
Derek
Yeah. Okay. Okay. I was trying to piece together like which particular despair you were in at the moment.
- [03:05]
Robert Mays
Excuse me. Excuse me. No, that was not the Andy Dalton year. That was the Nick Foles year.
- [03:10]
Derek
Oh, even worse. Okay, so you were in like the most quarterback despair for.
- [03:14]
David
I was going to say which Bears. Which Bears years. Just what sort of pain you prefer. Like, you don't really have to differentiate that much.
- [03:22]
Robert Mays
Yeah, it was a fun conversation. Just like arguing against a wall that Nick Foles wasn't actually going to save the Bears. But don't worry, we'll get to plenty of like Bears existential quarterback dread over the course of this show. But it's good to be back. It always feels like we're starting and celebrating another year when we get to the NFC north preview. So let's dig into this. The Detroit Lions, for each of these teams are going through their off season in 60 seconds. Coaching changes for the Lions. Lost Ben Johnson to the Bears as their head coach, formerly their offensive coordinator. Aaron Glenn, their defensive coordinator to the Jets. Hired John Morton as their oc. Fought off some outside interest for Hank Fraley, who is their offensive line coach and now their run game coordinator. Promoted Kelvin Shepard to be their defensive coordinator. Extended Kirby Joseph four years, 86 million. Signed D.J. reed, the cornerback three years, 48 million. Brought back Derek Barnes, the linebacker, three years, 24 million. Small deals for Roy Lopez and Tim Patrick in the draft. Took Tylee Williams, defensive tackle, 28th overall. Guard Tate Rat, which in the second round. Wide receiver Isaac Tesla in the third round. Gave up two 2026 third rounders to move up for Tesla. Lost Carlton Davis, Kevin Zeitler and Ife Mellophone Wu in free agency. Just a quick heads up. If you're watching this on YouTube, we'd love if you liked subscribed. Let us know your thoughts below. Anything we missed. Who you think is going to win the NFC North. We would really, really appreciate that. We're doing YouTube previews for every single individual team. So if you're watching the Lions preview right now and you want to go check out all the other NFC north teams, be available for you very shortly for each team. Derek, we're talking about what we are excited to watch with this team in 2025. Hit me with what you are excited to see for the 2025 Detroit Lions.
- [05:04]
Derek
I feel like for a number of different teams we've done the, oh, this might be the best defense in the league. We've done it like, you know, we talked about it over different shows. The Broncos, the Seahawks, Texans, all teams like that. Man, if the Lions defense is healthy, they might be the best in the league. Like Aiden Hutchinson was a defensive player of the year until he got hurt. And I think there was a little bit of a dip after that happened where we were like, oh man, are they going to be able to put the defense together? Because him and a million other players kept getting hurt. And by the end of the year, despite 8 million injuries, they were still one of the best defenses in the league. And I know they're changing out the defensive coordinator and we'll talk about that. But like from a talent perspective, they have dudes at every single level and young players. I think we might expect jumps from like Terry and Arnold might get better. Jack Campbell I think has started to look a little bit better. Like this is just, it's a defense that has a lot of the right guys and it has enough stars to be like a holy type of unit.
- [05:53]
Robert Mays
The secondary is where that really jumps out to me, Dave, just because you lose Carlton Davis in free agency and you know, the thought might be, okay, maybe Ennis Rake Straw steps in as a starter. You took him in the second round last year. He's hurt now, but even before the injury they go out and they just blow it out of the water by going to get DJ Reed. It's like, nah, nah, no succession plans here. Like, we're making sure that we are, talent wise, just as good as we were during the 2024 season. We are not messing around with what we need this group to be. And so I think was a real declaration of intense, them going out and getting DJ Read in the way that.
- [06:27]
David
They did, which draft and develop is a great way to build a team. I think in a vacuum it's probably the best way to build a team if you can count on all of your draft decisions to work out. But this is a perfect example of why that's not always a good idea and why it can be a good idea to cover yourself in free agency. It sucks. I feel bad for Innis Rake Straw, but he's not going to have a 2025 season and think about how much you would be Scrambling right now. If that had been plan, if you were like, we drafted these guys for a reason, they're going to step up and kick ass. I think Lions fans would be in a bit of a panic if that's what they had done. And instead you go get a similar player to Carlton Davis and D.J. reed for a lesser price tag. I love the move when it happened and it looks even better right now because we're still excited about this secondary. So I, I think that's worth keeping in mind. Like, I think most people, you shun major free agent moves, you shun giving veterans a lot of money, and we want to get excited about our draft picks, but you can do this thing multiple ways.
- [07:30]
Derek
And like, the last point I really want to make about the talent on defense, especially if you're inserting a new defensive coordinator, probably the two nicest things that guy could have is a pass rusher I know can win no matter what we do, which obviously Aiden Hutchinson I think has become. And like one guy in the back seven where it's like we can build everything around his flexibility and what he can do, and that's Brian Branch. And so the fact that like the new defensive coordinator is walking in with two of the nicest pieces you can have to build a defense around, it just, it makes me incredibly excited for how everything else should line up for them.
- [08:01]
Robert Mays
And there are no weak links in the secondary. And I think that was the case last year when all those guys were healthy, because I think Amek Robertson was kind of a revelation for them playing nickel. You know, we were a little bit worried about Brian Branch moving from that spot more to a full time safety role. They got Robertson for next to nothing in free agency and he was really good for them. I mean, especially late in the year. And then he gets banged up, which the amount of just tragedy that stacked up over the course of the year for this Lions defense was ridiculous. But this is a group that top to bottom on the back end is really good, and for the amount of man they've historically wanted to play, you need that sort of group back there. My answer to this and what I'm excited to watch is kind of an extension of that, but it extends to the offense as well. There's just so much talent on this team. Like there's so many good players on the Lions, and we'll talk about where this could go wrong and where they might take a step back and all of that stuff. Coordinator changes, there's plenty to dig into and there's plenty of Critical thought to apply to the L, but on a very simple level, it's kind of like good players. Go Burr. Like that's how I look at the Lions roster and that's how I feel about this. It's like along with Aiden Hutchinson, along with Brian Branch, Kirby, Joseph, Jameer Gibbs, Ahmad Ross, St. Brown, Penny Sewell, Lee McNeil when he's healthy, and even a lot of really, really solid supporting players. So getting to watch this team at full strength without the defense being absolutely decimated, getting to watch Aiden Hutchinson for a full season in combination with all the other young talent, that's what I'm excited to watch with this team. We'll see what happens on the margins and the coaching and all of those other aspects to it, but just the pure amount of talent on the field with your 22 starters. Every single week this team is in the conversation with anybody else for the high end players that we're looking at.
- [09:40]
Derek
I think we always want to make a lot about like the, the margins because that's our job, right? It's to, oh, what are the little differences that coaching is going to make or all the little stat regressions and all that stuff. But at the end of the day it's like the Eagles last year or even the year before where it's like, even if a lot of shit is going wrong, if you are so talent, you can still get into the playoffs almost regardless of everything else. And the Lions do feel like that kind of roster.
- [10:01]
Robert Mays
It's a great comparison because I think that's the argument for how this could go. Well, even as you're changing out coordinators, if you have just an overwhelming amount of talent, can the rest of that stuff matter less? And I think the Eagles have shown that obviously you know what happened with the Eagles, they needed to get the right coordinators in there eventually, but you still have a certain floor when you have that level of talent across the entire roster. And I think the Lions, the Eagles are probably the best like analogous case for what you could expect from them if things go well.
- [10:28]
David
Well, I think that that's an interesting point and I'm thinking through this in real time, but you know, we, we focus so much on what the Lions have lost and what they don't have. And I know we, we're moving past the idea that this is a fun feel good story. We're judging the Lions on a different level than what we were doing in 2022, 2023, 2024. But an organization like Philly is a perfect example. You know, they've built three different super bowl teams across multiple different eras, across multiple. This is the Lions moving into that territory where it's like, okay, maintain it. And I don't want to offend any Lions fans, but maybe because of my life experience, there's some part of my brain that thinks this is all going to disappear in a wisp of smoke, you know, but they have so much talent. There's every reason to believe that that's not going to be true.
- [11:20]
Robert Mays
We'll revisit this when we talk about what success is for the Lions, because I think that there are some tangible 20, 25 wins and losses elements of that, and I think there's some bigger picture, organizational strength and questions to that. For each of these teams. We're talking about the swing points that they're going to face this season. Where could the year pivot for the Detroit Lions? Derek wouldn't. Why don't you hit me with yours?
- [11:42]
Derek
I think to me it's the offensive line and it's for two reasons. One, they're inserting a bunch of new guys that are replacing a lot of veterans. Obviously Frank Ragnow is gone at center. Kevin Zeitler, who was only there for a year but played pretty admirably for them last year and is another veteran guy. So those two guys are out of the building and they're trying to put now Christian Mahogany into the lineup as a full time guy. Graham Glasgow, who was kind of their, their fifth offensive lineman last year, he was kind of just like a serviceable guy. Now he's taking over at center. And then you have Tate Ratledge, the rookie at right guard. That's just a lot of new. It's a lot of shakeup. It's a lot of young for a unit that over the past like three years has been at least one of the top five offensive lines in football. And so this to me is just a. For as much as like we get excited about what the Lions passing game and stuff has been, a lot of it is driven through, like what they can do under center by running the ball and setting up play action, good downs and distances, being in third and nine and being able to run the ball to get into 4th and 2 and go for it, that type of stuff. I just like, if this young interior is not what they want it to be, that could be an issue. But they've invested enough, at least in guys like Tate Ratledge that like, you can see what the upside could look like.
- [12:47]
Robert Mays
There's no doubt that there's upside, and I think that they deserve the benefit of the doubt here. There are certain teams based on the development plans we've seen along the offensive line and their ability to still function. When we've had guys hurt over the last couple years, that's what really sticks out to me. It's like the one or two Christian Mahogany games that we saw last year. You barely noticed that he was in there unless it was in a good way because he was playing well enough for you to notice him. I think they've been able to really ride the wave with injuries in such an impressive way, and I think that's why I do have a lot of faith that this can work. But, Dave, even if you get to a point where you feel good about Mahogany, Ralwich is solid for a rookie. Glasgow gives you a certain floor as well as your center. We're still probably talking about an offensive line that's like, on the fringes of the top 10, rather than one that's definitively in the top three or four. And I think that's probably the best case scenario. So what that gap means for the overall quality of the Lions offense, I think that's a question that is still worth asking.
- [13:44]
David
And I guess it's a compliment to the Lions roster that this is the thing that I said I was losing Sleepover when we had our call and we're talking about how we feel about things. The interior, specifically, because I'm not worried about the tackles, but the interior of the offensive line. In Detroit, when you talk about potentially downgrading from near the top of the league to even. Yeah, even if they're like, top 10 moving down from where they were. In my opinion, I think that could be a really, really big deal. And I know Graham Glasgow is still there. You're still talking about three new positions. Cause Glasgow is moving back to center full time. You got Mahogany and Ratledge stepping in at guard. Like, the entire interior of your line is. And if Frank Ragnow was still playing center, I wouldn't bat an eyelash at this. I think, full disclosure, Frank Ragnow is like, one of my favorite players of the last five or six years. He's. He's so good. And he was so tough, too. I think I fell in love with him around the time he broke his throat and, like, didn't miss a substantial amount of playtime. Like, that's a thing that happened. And I went back and watched just to refresh myself and I'm like, like, yeah, this dude never gets moved. He can handle his guy one on one almost all the time, he cuts the defense in half. Like, anytime you watch Gibbs or Montgomery spring something, Ragnow was almost always in the middle of it, getting to the second level, just eliminating somebody from the play. And then you go back, I went and watched a Glasgow played center for Ragnow against Seattle. I believe last year was not bad at all. Like, he did a perfectly acceptable job. Obviously, the Lions won that game. But you can just tell a difference from a Frank Ragnow to a Graham Glasgow, where it's like, yeah, like he's. He's kind of hanging on for dear life here. He's getting some help from the guard here. He's just not the center that can step out and do everything on his own. Because Frank Ragnow has been one of the best three guys in the NFL for most of his career. I think that makes a huge difference a in what you're getting from that position, but also having somebody to lift up two new guards. So it's not that I think they're going to be bad, but I think they were elite or close to it. And if they're not that, I do think it could make a pretty significant difference.
- [16:04]
Robert Mays
It's a difference between your floor and your ceiling. And I think that when you put Graham Glasgow at center, I think in their minds, internally, even no matter what we think it was about setting a certain floor at the position. We know what we're going to get here. Tate Radwich played guard in college, and you're making sure that the bottom doesn't fall out of it. But you're probably not going to see those end outcomes that we saw when Frank Ragnow was there, and that's okay. And I will say this, I'm with you in that. Obviously there. There are more questions about the interior guys than the tackles. But to Decker's 32, he's coming off of an injury this off season. Like, it's at least worth monitoring what his trajectory looks like from here on out. I mean, if we see a slight step back in his play. And now you're getting worse at three to four of these positions with really only Penny Sewell, you know, locking down that right tackle spot in the same way we've seen in years past. I think that's when this stuff starts to compound a little bit and you start to feel some of the effects. So, Dave, what was your swing point for the Lions if you're off, if the offensive line is what was kind of keeping you up at night?
- [17:01]
David
I think the main thing is how good exactly does Aiden Hutchinson look? And I don't have a lot of doubts about that. I guess I always just want to see it when a guy is coming off of injury. I mean, if anybody needs a refresher, he was going to win Defensive Player of the Year last year. Like, I don't have a problem saying that. He had eight sacks and 45 pressures. He got hurt right around halftime of game five. Like, he didn't even make it five full games. He had eight sacks and 45 pressures for a team that won 15 games, by the way, there's no doubt in my mind he wins Defensive Player of the Year if he has a healthier season. An unscientific list of guys I came up with last year that Aiden Hutchinson finished with as many or more sacks, four and a half games, mind you. George Carloftis, Josh Sweat, Rashawn Gary, Max Crosby, Chop Robinson, Nolan Smith, Khalil Mack, Jared Verse, Montes, Sweat.
- [18:03]
Derek
He.
- [18:03]
David
He had the production of some of those guys in a third of the season. He was incredible. He's an incredible player. I think he'll be fine. But. But is he going to be that? You know, and that's. If he is, then I think Derek's point is right, that this could be one of the best defenses in the NFL. But I want to see that. And I, you know, I don't need him to get to eight sacks in the first month of the season. That's kind of crazy. But I need him to look like a guy that you can sort of build the rest of a pass rush around.
- [18:33]
Robert Mays
For quick context, and this is before a couple injuries had happened, and so they probably were not involved in the numbers here. FTN and. And football. DVOA has the Lions as the number one defense in the NFL when, as they're doing their preseason projections. So that's good to keep in mind as we think about what the reasonable expectations for this team might be. This team is in such a good spot that I don't think there are that many great answers to this question. But, Derek, what is keeping you up at night about the 2025 Detroit Lions? A question we're asking about all of these teams.
- [19:04]
Derek
I mean, that's kind of the thing. Like, nothing. I think there are some, like a bunch of questions with the team, like, how good are the coordinators going to be? Which again, we'll talk about that a little bit later. How good is the interior really going to be? You know, the, the front outside of agent Aiden Hutchinson is maybe not elite so how good are they going to be? But there's really no part of this roster where I look at it and go, man, I am certain that's going to be a problem for them. And I think that's just a testament to the way that they built this thing. And maybe it's even a testament to like, maybe if I scrapped the helmet and took away the head coach, some of this stuff would be more of a concern. But there's some degree of like institutional faith that I kind of have in Dan Campbell that pushes some stuff that maybe would be a keep me up at night to like, ah, it's a swing point, maybe this can be fine. So I really just don't have like a glaring flashing red light for this team.
- [19:54]
Robert Mays
I didn't either. I think there are some questions about personnel. We've hit on those. We'll talk about the coordinators and what might feel a little bit different and whether or not, you know, these can units can stay elite on both sides of the ball. If I had to pick one and I this is maybe a little bit alarmist, but it's kind of where my brain goes, it's keeping me up at night that this team might have already peaked offensively and not made the most of whatever that two year stretch looked like. Obviously last year they couldn't. Right? And I think that's what makes. I'm thinking about what Dan Campbell said after the Niners game against, against the Niners in the NFC Championship game.
- [20:26]
Derek
Oh man.
- [20:26]
Robert Mays
Just this idea that it's really, really hard to get here and you don't know if you're ever going to be back and then they come into last year and you could reasonably make a case that they were the best team in the NFC for most of the season when healthy and maybe the best team in the league. And then you just completely run out of gas because you have no defensive players by the end while still having an offense that is just this well oiled machine. And I do think they'll be good on offense, talking about the amount of talent that they're bringing on that side of the ball. But there are just so many little things about who they were over the last couple years, especially last year, that's just going to be hard to replicate. They were extremely healthy on that side of the ball. For the most part they led the NFL in success rate and this is my favorite one and this is why it's going to be hard to recapture this even if John Morton is good. The Lions last season, according to True Media produced 107 EPA on throws of negative five to five air yards. So just behind the line of scrimmage to zero to five yards past the line of scrimmage, 107. No other team in the league had more than 60.
- [21:34]
Derek
Who's even next? Like the Bucks? Something like that. Okay, that also.
- [21:39]
Robert Mays
Here'S the craziest part of this. Overall the league had 75 EPA because of all the teams that were in.
- [21:47]
Derek
The teams that sucked at it.
- [21:49]
Robert Mays
So The Lions produce 140% of the total EPA on negative 5 to 5 yard air yard throws. Yesterday or last year. The average was 2.3. So on those plays, the Lions were like 50 times more valuable than any other offense in the league. Even if John Morton does a good job, you are not doing this shit again. It's just not happening. And so those tiny little margins of going from being just this hyper efficient, dominant 30 points a game offense to being merely very good, the seventh best offense in the league, you can still be a good team when you're doing that. But is your best possible shot already gone as you lose some of those little details? And that's very nitpicky, but that is what's keeping me up at night and would be if I were alliance fan. Just this idea of did we already miss our best chance because of what sort of well oiled machine we were over the last couple years.
- [22:43]
David
It might be nitpicky, but that's the type of stuff that playing the games gives you clarity on though. And like to bring it back to my point, you can give me eight reasons why the guys on the interior of the offensive might be fine and maybe they will be. But if the Lions don't hit the highs that we saw last year and you look back on it in January, you're like, ah man, they did miss Frank Ragnow and it had this ripple effect and they just weren't quite as good as what we got used to seeing. I think it's, I think that is a very real thing and that is the, that is the fear of attrition. Like that's why we talk about it so much.
- [23:18]
Robert Mays
Let's talk about what we're watching in the first month of this season. Some stuff we want answers on. Derek, why don't you kick us off here?
- [23:25]
Derek
I think we could say like the offense in general, but for me it's a little bit more specific about like what does Jared Goff look like in the new offense? Because I think at both stops that he's been Very good at. They've been very particular offenses. Obviously he was, he was put in even more of a box in LA with the Rams and I think both he and Sean McVeigh have admitted a lot to that. And there was, it was more open with Detroit. It was a lot more of like finding what is he good at, giving him more control at the line, line, all that stuff. But it was still very much a, like we're under center, we're throwing over the middle of the field off play action. We're not asking you to throw down the field because you don't do that. And it was a lot of like we're finding really what he's good at. I don't know what the new Detroit offense is going to look like and I'm curious to see what it now looks like where. I think when he was going from LA to Detroit, I had no idea what he could mentally handle really. And now I think I have a clearer picture. He is better as a drop back passer. He is better pre snap handling protections and so and so in a new offense, what does all that stuff look like? I'm, I'm really interested to see.
- [24:21]
Robert Mays
My assumption is this will look a lot like it has over the last couple years with like subtle changes. Maybe we'll see a slightly more expansive drop back menu because that's where John Morton comes from. Like he is a drop back pass guy. If you look at the play action rates on some of the teams that he has coached on. Like we talked about this, Derek and the quarterbacks at a crossroads show, like those Raiders teams when Gong Gruden was there was not a lot of play action. It's a, an extensive drop back sort of menu that is like the, the true blue west coast world that he comes from. They're not going to throw the play action stuff into the garbage. Like they're still going to use a lot of it because that's what they've been good at. But you just see the history and the preferences of the coordinator kind of manifest in these subtle ways. When you get to the end of the season it's like, oh, this was a little bit different. They didn't quite as much of this and you see that with the actual play calling. I do think that it's been a collaborative process there over the last couple years and I talked to people about this when I was at training camp. We'll still have that. You know, there's still guys like Scotty Montgomery, Hank Fraley, those people that were on the Staff Dan Campbell. This idea that it's Dan Campbell's offense I think is kind of a little bit silly. Like Ben Johnson was the coordinator for the last fans. Yeah, that's. Ben Johnson was the coordinator. But I think that the game planning process in that has been collaborative and continued and will be as we move forward. But now you get to game day and I think they're going to. It's probably a little bit more collaborative on game day than it used to be. Ben Johnson was an exceptional play call. So if you go from exceptional to even very good, you are going to see some sort of downgrade. And then you combine that, Dave, with some of the personnel changes that we're talking about and this is how you go from one of the best two or three offenses in the league to the eighth or ninth best offense in the league. And that can make a huge difference when you're trying to achieve things at the highest level.
- [26:00]
David
I think that's fair. But I also, I would like to, I'll be nice and point out too, I don't think Dan Campbell would hire John Morton or Kelvin shepherd to just do an impression of Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn. Like I think Dan Campbell is a smart enough, good enough coach to have a bigger picture and more mature mindset here than just trying to recapture what worked for them with the guys who are no longer there. And that's, that's what I'm interested to watch is like one way or another the Lions are going to look different. Like the way that they do things, the way that they handle certain situations. I mean, they're still going to be the Lions, right? I'm not saying like, like you said, they're not going to throw out their playbook or the way that they like to be aggressive and some of the hallmarks of the Dan Campbell era. But I think Dan Campbell is smarter than to just try to fake his way through losing his coordinator. So it could be different. That doesn't mean that it couldn't be good, I guess.
- [27:04]
Robert Mays
I think the offense will look very similar with a couple specific wrinkles, especially in the drop back game and what they're trying to accomplish like on third down, stuff like that. The defense, and that's what I'm watching the first month of the season. How different does the defense look under Kelvin Shepherd? The process of picking the coordinators, I think with John Morton it was one of those things of okay, these are like the four or five guys that we're choosing between. John has these sorts of strengths. He has a Defined history with Dan Campbell. He was there in 2020 when they really kind of poured the offense out onto the and rebuilt it in the first full year under Ben Johnson. So he was a part of that process and he knows the guys. You know, him and Jared Goff have a prior relationship. There's a certain level of comfort there. But I still think, again, he was the guy they chose out of whoever the candidates might have been. Kelvin Shepard is somebody that they've been tabbing for this for years. Like it was a couple years ago when Dan Campbell was, you know, talking to Aaron Glenn, like, if you're going to move on as a head coach, like, this is the type of guy that we should get ready. And I do think we might, might see a slightly bigger departure on that side of the ball, schematically than the one that we see on offense. If you look at Kelvin Shepherd's background, the two people who I think really have influenced the way that he thinks about defensive football are Steve Spagnolo, who he spent two years with when he was with the Giants in 2016 and 2017, and Luana Rumo, when Lou was the interim defensive coordinator for the Dolphins. Kelvin was on that team. And so what Luana Rumo and Steve Spagnolo do, Derek is very different than what Aaron Glenn was doing last year. Right? Right. Like this is a team on third down last season that played, man, 60.2% of the time, and they were very, very good at it. The idea that you could lead the NFL and defensive success rate when playing, man, 60% of the time, playing man coverage on third down is crazy. Typically, a lot of those other teams that are up there in that stat are the ones that don't do it very often. So it's like a weird change up and teams aren't ready for it. The idea that the Lions could major in it and still be dominant doing it is really, really hard. But I do think, to your point, Dave, they're thinking about, okay, we pulled that off. That's hard to do. Again, these man, man heavy teams, that's where you actually see a lot of volatility in defensive success from year to year. And so trying to figure out what the wrinkle is on top of that, I think you'll see some of that and I think you'll see them tap into the continuity on defense as a way to really enhance that. So now that we've had all these guys play together, especially in the back seven for multiple years, Campbell, Anzalone, the players that we talked about in the secondary with Reed being the only new piece, but he's been in the league forever. Can we be a little bit more flexible? Can we have certain checks to make sure we're getting in the right stuff? Can we use a little bit more disguise? So I do think it will be more complex, Derek. The question is whether that's a good thing. This reminds me a little bit of the Ravens last year, where Zach, or I think learned the hard way early in that season. We have a lot of continuity, have a lot of these same pieces back, and I think they got too complex and it hurt them in year one during their new coordinator, even though that guy was on the staff and they carried over a lot of the defensive talent. So even if there are more layers to it, do the layers benefit them or are guys playing a tick slow because you're overloading them a little bit mentally? I think watching that over the first month to six weeks, that push and pull is what I'm going to be really curious about when it comes to the Lions.
- [30:15]
Derek
They're going to be one of those defenses that we might talk about them differently in October than we do by December for all of those reasons. And that's exactly what the Ravens were. The Ravens were not a good defense for, like, eight weeks. And then we're like the third best defense in the league for all of the reasons that you're saying. And that took a couple of personnel changes and stuff like that, moving Kyle Hamilton again for that to work. But, you know, we'll see what that might be with the Lions. But I do think, like, the thing I want to. To hone in on that you've kind of talked about is like, Aaron Glenn ran, I think, more of a specific defense than people realize. Like, I think when we talk about those defensive coordinators, we're thinking of, like, the Steve Spagnolo, the Brian Flores, like, oh, my God, look at all crazy shit he's doing. But. But Aaron Glenn ran, like, more base defense than anyone in the league had any right to, and he played more man coverage than anyone had any right to. It's just that it was taught so well, and everyone's like, the run fits were good when they were in all this base stuff, that they were getting value out of the things that they were doing. Almost no matter what Kelvin shepherd does, it's going to look a lot different than that. And so, yeah, I mean, I'm excited to see what that's going to look like for them.
- [31:13]
Robert Mays
The one personal thing before we wrap this up on defense that I am watching out for is what the front looks like because that is the area of concern to me. Yet losing Levi Onzarike before the season even started and now you're really chipping into your interior depth specifically because on Zarica is out for the season. We'll see what happens and when we get a Lee McNeil back. So right now you're really relying on Ty Leak, Williams, DJ Reader and Roy Lopez who all have pretty similar skill sets. Like you watch Tyler Williams even in the preseason. He's a big man who's going to play on the other side of the line of scrimmage. How much pass rush juice are you getting from that group collectively to me is a fair question. And then you could extend that to the edge. Like right now, Marcus Davenport is still the number two edge rusher on this team. Josh Pascal is hurt right now, so their depth there is a little bit affected. It still feels like and Kilton Pounce. He has written this for the Athletic and covers that team extremely well. Is there an outside addition among the front, especially on the edge before the season even starts? Zadarius Smith, somebody like that because they're thin at these spots. So personnel wise on the roster outside of the interior and I would say even including the interior of the offensive line, this is the area I'm most worried about because at least they have a plan on the interior of the offensive line. The plan for this is still a little bit more worrisome to me. Let's get to what success looks like. David for the 2025 Detroit Lions, I.
- [32:37]
David
Led this off by saying maybe I worry a little bit about the Lions more than I would another team because I've never seen them navigate these waters before. So for me that would be success for the Detroit Lions is navigate the attrition. Prove that you are attrition proof. Handle losing two coordinators and losing some key veterans and still be a good team, still make the playoffs, still win the division. I mean the Lions have the talent. I think 15 wins is unrealistic. I think the biggest Lions fan would agree with that. But this team could still win 12 games and win the NFC North. I don't think that's unrealistic at all. So prove it. Prove that you can keep this thing humming and that you are really that type of organization that is going to be in the mix no matter what you're dealing with.
- [33:25]
Robert Mays
I think that's right. I think it's the wins and losses, but it's also just what this season says about the organizational health overall if they win 11 games, make the playoffs and show us that they're one of those teams, the ones that are just around every single year even as they change out the component parts, I think that would be success for this team. And you know we there been so good over the last couple seasons that it's easy to treat them as kind of a mainstay now in the way that we think about them and talk about them. But it's only been two years that they've been in the playoffs. Like this is not that long of a period of time when you compare it to the other like truly excellent organizations in the league. And so show us that you are one of those teams and that matters on the field and how many wins and losses we see. But it's also just how we think about them and the staying power that this regime specifically has. And I believe that can happen. But I think that would be the marker of success this year.
- [34:13]
Derek
And I did too because that's the thing that makes all of those teams is that they just replace their coordinators really well. Like there's a lot of things the Ravens have done really well over the past few years, hitting on Lamar Jackson, good drafting all that. But they also like every coordinator hire they make is really, really good. And so that's I think Dan Campbell is going to have to prove that and again I have faith in it. But until we see you just don't know.
- [34:33]
Robert Mays
It's a perfect example because the Ravens are a team with a CEO head coach who does not call the place. So them hitting the right coordinators is a necessary part of their success. Some of these other teams have not had as much luck when it comes to finding the next coordinator and being able to bridge that gap. And we're going to find out most likely by the end of this year where the Lions fall between those two sets of teams. We're going to take a quick break here and then we're going to come back with the Minnesota Vikings.
- [34:59]
David
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- [36:37]
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- [38:50]
Robert Mays
Our Preview for the 2025 Minnesota Vikings their offense in 62nd offense their off season in 60 seconds. I already got a little bit ahead of myself. Moving too far fast sign will fry 5 years 88 million 44 guaranteed to play guard retained Byron Murphy 3 years 54 million on the same free agent contract every corner in the league got this year. Jonathan Allen 3 years 51 million 31 guaranteed a defensive tackle defensive tackle Javon Hargrave 3 years 30 million, 19 guaranteed signed Ryan Kelly to play center 2 years 18 million 9 guaranteed tack down a year to Andrew Van Ginkle's deal 1 year 23 million extended Josh Mattelis 3 years 36 million 25 guaranteed Josh Oliver 3 years 23 million, 20 guaranteed retained Aaron Jones 2 years 20 million 13 1/2 guaranteed guaranteed brought in Jordan Mason via trade 2 years 10 million. Traded for Sam Howell, then traded him back to the Eagles for a draft pick and then just signed Carson Wentz to back up J.J. mcCarthy in the draft. Took Jonathan Jackson, offensive guard, 24th overall wide receiver Ty Felton in the third round, 102nd overall. They didn't have many picks lost Sam Darnold, Cam Bynum, Cam Robinson, Pat Jones, Garrett Bradbury in free agency and then just traded Harrison Phillips to the Jets. What is keeping you up at nights? David about the 2025 Minnesota Vikings what's.
- [40:03]
David
Keeping me up at night?
- [40:04]
Robert Mays
We're starting with keeping you up at night about the Vikings because I think it would be disingenuous to start anywhere else.
- [40:10]
David
What's keeping me up at night? About the championship level roster with a tortured fan base that drafted an extremely young quarterback. Top 10, saw him get hurt, hurt, put him on the shelf for his rookie year and is asking him to be the difference for a team that won 14 games. I don't know what could possibly be keeping me up at night.
- [40:32]
Robert Mays
We all have the same answer to this.
- [40:34]
David
It's J.J. mcCarthy.
- [40:36]
Robert Mays
This is the place where we have to start this conversation because the rest of this roster, the idea that we didn't even deign to doubt what the Vikings could do this year on other shows that we've done after the last couple seasons. Why people think that's ridiculous is because of the rest of the roster and the coaching staff are so unbelievably good that there is belief that this should still be like a surefire playoff team with a quarterback that we have never seen play football. Derek and I don't think that's crazy, but I do think that speaks to the overall quality and every other aspect of the roster and the organization heading into this season.
- [41:13]
Derek
And like to some degree it's not theory. Like obviously Sam Darnold being a veteran.
- [41:17]
Robert Mays
And being a talent in practice, this.
- [41:19]
Derek
Yeah like it's like it's slightly different circumstances than J.J. mcCarthy, sure. But like we have seen them take X quarterback. We've never really seen be good in the NFL before and be a 14 win team. Like we've already seen them do it and they've retained all their play callers which is always a huge thing. They've only improved the trenches which I think in a lot of ways is always like a a way like how are we. It's a, it's a quick way to measure how good you think a team is. Like just look at the trenches and that's a good way to start. They threw a bunch of money at both sides. Sides. They still have maybe the best receiver in football. Like they just every other part the other 21 positions on this team. It's just like this is a team that won 14 games last year and if the quarterback is as good as he was last year, they can do it again. It's just we have no idea because we've never seen him play and he's coming off of a knee injury and.
- [42:03]
Robert Mays
I think you could make a solid argument that collectively this is like a top five team when it comes to play calling and infrastructure on both sides of the ball independent of the players that we're talking about. What's going to happen with JJ McCarthy is it's going to Be a constant conversation over the course of the entire season. And I was in Minnesota last week, about a week ago today. It was the last training camp stop that I made. And when you just think about the way that they've approached this and just how intentional they've been about making sure we're putting everything we can in place to guarantee that the only way this guy fails is if he's just not good enough. That is the only thing we are leaving up to chance. And that extends to, like, how J.J. mcCarthy is wired, by the way, way. So they, like, left in the spring after OTAs and he came back and just had like, a much better handle on a lot of the mental parts of the offense. And so they were like, oh, he just spent the entire break, like, studying details about the offense. And so his quality as a quarterback, like him as a player, is what is going to hold this back. Nothing else. Even drafting Donovan Jackson in the first round after making those moves in free agency, I think part of the thought was, was, well, if we take this guard who is in the tier of players we would take here, then nothing. There's no question. We have no remaining questions about the offensive personnel. And I think the peace of mind that came with that was at least partially Dave, why they wanted to make that happen. They're leaving nothing up to chance except for the quarterback, which unfortunately is a pretty big thing.
- [43:31]
David
It's very funny that the narrative that followed JJ through his very successful career at Michigan now can follow him into the NFL because part of the conversation was like, Michigan was loaded. They had 14 draft picks. They won the national title. Like, he only had to throw 10 passes in a close game in the fourth quarter all year or whatever the number was. Like, the whole point was that Michigan was so good that he didn't have to do that much. And maybe that'll be true in Minnesota too. Like, we, I mean, we had a whole argument about it where maybe JJ just needs to be a median NFL quarterback and this team is really good enough to contend. I would feel a hell of a lot better. Do you know how much better I would feel about the Vikings if I knew that he had even done the Patrick Mahomes thing and sat for a year and played week 18 and, and looked good in one game. Like I'd be ready to put the Vikings in the super bowl if I had some degree of assurance of anything, even if it was just a nonsense Week 18 game and the knowledge that he got to. To practice all season long, but he didn't do that stuff. It speaks to how little football he has played at this level. It's, it's fascinating and I mean I, I want it to work out because it would be really, really fun, but it's, it's terrifying because the, I think the ceiling is super bowl contender and obviously the, the floor is, oh my God, we whiffed on a top 10 draft pick and it's going to, pardon my French, up our chances of winning a Super bowl with this amazing roster.
- [45:05]
Robert Mays
Especially because you moved on from a guy you knew could make you a 14 win team. Like even if he was limited, even if you had to make concessions financially with resource wise, if you were to pay Sam Darnold, you still moved on from it. And I supported that in the moment and I still do. It's funny that you say that 10 plays a game, Dave. I think that's how they're looking at it. The way that they've built this offense. I think their goal is can we make this a situation where we need him to make seven or eight throws every single game? Game where we're making sure because of the quality of the run game now, because of the offensive line, because of everything else about the infrastructure, we're putting him in seven and eight or seven or eight moments a game or where he needs to really do the heavy lifting. And I think some people might look at that and think it's a bit of skepticism or doubt about the quality of the quarterback from the people building that sort of situation. I don't really take it that way. I think Kevin o' Connell specifically, his belief like in his bones, is that you should do everything you can to make it as easy as possible on the quarterback. And I think part of that is his history as a quarterback. So I don't think that in trying to make sure that's the environment where we only need to make him, we only need him to make seven or eight plays a game. I don't. That's not the tone they're saying it with. I think the tone they're saying it with is we only need him to make seven or eight plays a game. That's how we've built this thing. And so if that's true, if everything else is so good that that's the scenario you put him in. I guess the question, Derek, is how confident do we have in his ability to make those seven or eight plays a game?
- [46:36]
Derek
That's a, that's a heavy question because we haven't seen him play very much. I was pretty. Iffy on McCarthy as a prospect. He, to me, was more of like a guy you take in the top 50, like, top of the second round, very end of the first round. And they obviously took him a little bit higher than that. But I do think, like, a lot of my issue was he was going to be someone who needed a little bit of time, he was going to meet someone who needed the right environment, and he was going to need a place. That didn't ask a lot of him early on. Well, the Vikings do check all of those boxes, and I do think that, like, kind of to the point that you were making about the talent being so good that we're not going to have to ask questions about, like, okay, if he can't handle this, then he's just not good enough. I think that extends to the idea of, like, okay, well, if they only need him to make seven plays a game, if he can't even do that, then they have a pretty good answer that it's, like, ruined immediately. I do have faith that he can at least clear that bar. The. The question to me, like, with McCarthy, long term is, and this is more than a 2025 question, is just like, by the time you get to when you want to pay him in year three and year four, what does the ceiling look like? And obviously that doesn't really matter for right now. If he can just make those seven plays a game, which I think he can manage that. I do have some questions in the sense that, like, he's less talented than Sam Darnold was. His arm is not quite as good. He's not as big. They're probably similar athletes. Sam just didn't want to run as much as J.J. mcCarthy does. And I think that's just a matter of him being a zoomer and Sam. And not so we'll see in that front. But. But I do think he can. He can probably manage.
- [47:58]
Robert Mays
Let's get to what we're excited to watch with the 2025 Minnesota Vikings. We alluded to it a little bit, but my answer to this is really just a more balanced and complete version of this offense. When you look at the numbers from last year, obviously Sam Darnold was incredibly productive. This is one of the most explosive passing offenses in the NFL. The way that they construct their vertical passing game game is as good as any team in professional football. And then they had the talent to make that whole thing go. Then you look at the rushing numbers and you realize where some of the cracks in this thing had started to form. They finished 26th in rushing success rate last season per Next Gen stats. And you felt that, you felt that in the most important moments of the of the year. And I think that led to down and distant situations that put more stress on the passing game. And I think that's what they're trying to avoid in the way that they've deployed their resources this offset season. So by going out, signing Will Fry, signing Ryan Kelly, drafting Donovan Jackson, and trading for Jordan Mason to kind of take some of that rushing workload specifically off of Aaron Jones, the hope here is that you're just so much more balanced that you ask less of the quarterback. And I think this extends to the rest of the offense overall and kind of how it builds on that idea. You know, when I'm thinking about and talking to people there and they didn't say this explicitly but. But a lot of the things they were saying about just the marriage of the run in the past being the foundation of this offense and we kind of strayed away from that in Minnesota over the last couple years because of the quality of the running game. I think they want to get back to a place, Derek, where this kind of feels like the 2017, 2018 Rams version of this offensive system where it's running the ball, it's play action and it's even like some of the screens and play action screens that can come off of that where you're really leaning into the deception and the breadth of the menu of what you can do on any individual play. Like this team was like 8th in success rate on screens last year per next gen, but they were middle of the pack and how often they ran them. I expect to see more screens, I expect to see more efficient runs. And so just that version of this offense where the menu is a little bit stronger and more varied. I'm looking forward to this personnel expressing those ideas.
- [50:04]
Derek
I'm just. It's funny you mentioned the 2017, 2018 Rams as I was talking about like what I felt about McCarthy. I was like, that's kind of how I thought about Jared Goff as a prospect, actually. Obviously McCarthy's a better athlete than Jared Goff was, but just in terms of like passers and what they were going to require heading into the NFL. So the 2017, 2018 Rams, obviously that's pie in the sky for a team like this, but they have the talent to do it. And like for me it's a lot of. We've talked about this a little bit. For as fun as the Vikings offense was to watch last year, they Weren't like that good. I mean they were like a middle of the pack offense because I think we remember in our minds all the explosives. But if you actually like watch down to down, they were having to hunt for those all of the time because they couldn't run the ball and they couldn't get to these screens as much as they want. So if they can run the piss out of the ball the way that I think they are clearly built to do now, especially like if Darasol is coming back fully healthy and stuff, I'm pretty excited for what this is going to look like. Especially too you mentioned. I really think an underrated part of this is getting Jordan Mason like Aaron Jones at this stage in his career, you just, he just can't take that many touches. Like he was never really that kind of guy.
- [51:05]
Robert Mays
He never was. We were all pissed about it early in his career, but the packers always, always knew that he supposed to give him like 200 touches a year.
- [51:11]
Derek
Him and Tony.
- [51:12]
Robert Mays
I love Jordan Aaron Jones. He's one of my favorite players ever. But I've come to that place where I understand the vision.
- [51:17]
Derek
Him and Tony Polly for the longest time were like the fantasy guys of like just give them more touches. And it's like some guys, one of.
- [51:23]
Robert Mays
Those guys, I'm not putting on anybody else. I was one of those guys.
- [51:27]
Derek
Some guys just can't handle it. And Jones is Fantastic for the 20 touches you can get him. But when you start to creep up to 27, 28, whatever it is, you have some issues. So just getting a hammer like Jordan Mason, I really think that does go a long way, especially when one, they needed that to begin with. But now if we're going to run the ball five more times a game than we did before, it's just going to go, I think, such a long way for the way that this thing can be put together.
- [51:48]
Robert Mays
Let's get to the swing points for the 2025 Minnesota Vikings. Dave, what do you got for me?
- [51:55]
David
I'll just stay in my notes section from the Detroit Lions because I'm curious to see how they deal with three new guys in new places on the interior of their offensive line. And I think, think it's, it's funny the way we talk about these different things. It reminds me of the meme that goes around social media where the hot guy says something to the lady at work and she's like, oh, aren't you so sweet? And then the ugly guy says it and she's like, human resources. That's what I feel like with the Vikings and the Lions, where they're doing.
- [52:25]
Robert Mays
The same thing, but three new starters on the interior of the offensive line and three new spots.
- [52:30]
David
Yeah, we all feel so much better about the Vikings because of the resources they spend. Obviously. I mean, I mean, Will Fry was a big money guy. Ryan Kelly, even if it was a smaller contract, he's an established starter. And then you use a first round pick. So there's. There's just this natural predisposition to be like, well, yeah, these guys are going to kick ass because they're expensive. And that's not necessarily true. Obviously I do. I think it'll probably be fine. And I am excited to see Jordan Mason in particular run behind three guys like this. But. But we don't have proof of concept yet. I mean, I know Kelly and Fries played together in Indy. They should be plenty familiar with each other. They also dealt with injury last year. That's, that's worth mentioning. Both of them had their seasons cut short. And then Donovan Jackson. I think you guys can disagree with me if you want to, but my read on Donovan Jackson is everybody's basically like, well, he's going to a good situation and that will probably lead him to success. But I think a lot of people were like, ooh, was this a little rich for a guy of Donovan Jackson's talent? So I think that's worth having in the back of your mind, at least. I say all that to say, just because you throw a shitload of money and resources at a problem doesn't guarantee a fix. So I think a huge swing point for this season is do these guys live up to the billing and what we hope they can be.
- [53:52]
Robert Mays
I will say about Donovan Jackson, I think that the argument for him is that he was a high floor prospect. Maybe if the ceiling is a little bit limited, he's a high floor prospect. And I do think that they had him in that. In a tier of players where they weren't stretching to go get him, because I think if they had run out of that tier of players where they thought there was a worthwhile pick in the 20s, they would have traded down because of the amount of picks that they needed in this draft. So I do think that they, I don't think they feel like they reach for Donovan Jackson just because they needed an offensive guard. We'll see what the floor of that actually looks like because obviously he is still a rookie. We've never seen him play in the NFL. For the other two guards, this is to me a very good example Example, Dave, of something you've said a lot over the last couple weeks of. Just because you spent a lot of money on something in free agency doesn't mean it's fixed. Will Fries. How many starts Will Fry has over the past three years or just in his career? How many like starts Will Fry has in his NFL career?
- [54:46]
David
Lay it on me.
- [54:47]
Derek
I'm gonna say like 31. Oh my God.
- [54:49]
Robert Mays
31. It's exactly 31.
- [54:51]
David
Derek, you had it pulled up. Don't.
- [54:54]
Derek
I was trying. I was thinking, I was like, okay, I know he didn't start early in his career and then he did have like, like a really good year and then he was hurt for parts of last year.
- [55:01]
Robert Mays
He played five games last season. So you are basing this contract where Will Fry has got 17 and a half million dollars a year with $44 million guaranteed essentially on a one year of quality starting play and then five games last year before he got hurt. He's also coming off a broken leg. I like Will Fries. That is a very rich contract with somebody of rich of Will Fries's profile. Ryan Kelly missed seven games last year, year four, three games the year before that. And he is about to turn 32 years old. So it's definitely better and I feel much better about it. But this idea that this is some bulletproof situation on the interior of the Vikings offensive line, it's not that. I think there's still more volatility to how this could eventually play out than we probably want to admit given all the resources they poured into it.
- [55:47]
Derek
Yeah, I can agree with that. The only like minor area of hope I do have is like, I know they obviously tried to replace him this year, but Blake, Blake Brendell played okay for them last year. So the fact that he's now depth for those two guards I do think is a little bit nice. But I am a little bit worried if Kelly goes down again, what they're going to do there.
- [56:05]
Robert Mays
My swing point here is the interior on the other side of the ball. Same kind of idea, right? You signed two 30something defensive tackles. That's what they poured all their money into rather than trying to spend some on the secondary. Even though they had a couple holes to fill there. We can get to the thinking as to why. But Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave, you got a 30, 30 year old guy and a 32 year old guy, both of whom have been banged up and you're really banking on them changing the complexion of what your front feels like to the point that they Just traded Harrison Phillips. Like they are really, really relying on two guys that they paid a lot of money to that are now third contract players into their 30s. And that comes with like a real amount of risk. And so how well those guys play and whether they justify that offseason playing. I think a lot of the quality of the defense for this Vikings team and how it could feel different than it has over the last couple of years hinges on what you get out of those guys.
- [56:57]
Derek
Robert, you know what's really funny? Do you remember the two position groups that we really hemmed and hawed over last year going into the season for the Vikings? It was the interior of their offensive line and the interior of their defensive line. Granted, the last, this time last year it was, they might be so bad, I don't know if they can be a good team now. It's like they'll probably be fine. Can they make them a great team? So the conversation has shifted. It's just funny that we've landed in the exact same spot a year later.
- [57:22]
Robert Mays
But at least they addressed it.
- [57:23]
Derek
Yeah, at least last year was.
- [57:25]
Robert Mays
They haven't addressed it. We're just rolling with the same group of interior players again. I have a lot more faith in it working out this time, but how well it works out considering what they poured into it. I think that's what we're talking about.
- [57:36]
David
Dave, I hate it for Hargrave in particular because I would argue that, that he has been a good example of a big money free agent who has actually worked out like signed a big deal in Philly after starting in Pittsburgh, helped spur them to a Super bowl, turned that into a bigger deal in San Francisco, which he undoubtedly wasn't as good in San Francisco, but he helped them get to a Super bowl and it's like, okay, now do it again and people are going to hate the guy if he doesn't deliver. And it's like, well, well, he's been delivering for a lot of his career. But you're asking a 32 year old to play at the level that you remember from probably 2022. Obviously that year with the Eagles where they got to the super bowl was his best year and his biggest breakout. I don't know how fair that is. I just, I hate it for John Allen too, to be honest with you, because he was so good for so long on some shit. Washington teams dealt with injury all last year, like didn't really get to enjoy the Commanders finally being good the way that, that he would probably prefer. So I, I mean, I'M rooting for both of these guys to deliver on the hype, but I think it is a very fair question of whether. Yeah, when you say third contract I start to get nervous and I, I hope they can defy the odds there.
- [58:54]
Robert Mays
And that was the problem with this free agent group is that there's weren't a lot of second contract players and this team had a lot of money to burn in free agency. And so the guys that they went after, there was a guy coming off a broken leg, was one of the best second contract players available. And then a lot of the other guys were older players. And so there's always going be some inherent risk there. If you look at the aging curves historically and the downside risk for paying players on third contracts, defensive linemen in general and especially interior defensive lineman and offensive lineman is typically a spot where you can be okay. And I think that informed some of the aggressiveness here. But that doesn't mean there's less risk than there are with younger free agents. And it really does represent a change in mindset for this team specifically because when you look at the free agents that they've tried to sign in previous years, Jonathan Grinards, Blake Cashman's, even like Andrew Van Ginkel was, I think a little bit older. But you look at Byron Murphy, they've done for the most part in previous off seasons they had been trying to build with free agents that were second contract players that could kind of become part of the tissue of the team because they had drafted so poorly. Now you see a mindset shift where it's like we're trying to push this thing over the finish line now and sometimes that can work, work and sometimes that can force you to take on risk you probably shouldn't be taking on and it becomes a little bit disappointing in the end.
- [60:12]
Derek
And that's kind of like the last part of this I want to tack onto. Like they on defense kind of over leveraged themselves. It felt like to me to fixing the front and I get it because it's been the biggest issue for them for a while. But I do worry about them not throwing enough resources at the secondary. Like I get that we like the way that Isaiah Rogers played last year, but like he's a capable corner too probably and now he's their best guy. Jeff Okuda is on his fourth team in four years and he's probably going to be starting for this team. Harrison Smith is 36 years old. Like it's just they lost Cam Bynum, who I think was their best defensive back other than maybe Byron Murphy last year. Like, it's just felt like they let that part of the roster deteriorate in favor of signing these two 30 plus defensive tackles who might be good for them. But it's like, does it balance out? I'm not sure.
- [60:54]
Robert Mays
I think that was a conscious choice. I think in their minds if they had limited resources, who everyone does, they would rather pour the resources into the front and try to get by on the back end because they've shown an ability to do that. Like this is a group that had Shaq Griffin and Stefan Gilmore last year and was one of the best two or three defenses in the league. Brian Flores has an extensive history as a scout and I think he really has an eye for what sort of DBs he wants. And I think their thought was we can get by with a little bit less at those spots. Theo Jackson has been waiting in the wings for a long time as that next up safety. If we were to move on from Bynum, Theo Jackson kind of stepping into that role after having a couple strong off seasons allows us to use Josh Mattelis in all the ways that we want to. And the front is going to be good and better enough when we're not blitzing that we can get by with how we have built the secondary. That's the vision we'll see if that actually comes to fruition. But I think that's the argument for why they did it this way. Let's get to what we're watching over the first month of the season with the Minnesota Vikings. Dave, lay it on me.
- [61:52]
David
Maybe you've heard the Vikings have a little bit of an issue at wide receiver right now. Jordan Addison obviously suspended three games. Justin Naylor is dealing with a hand injury. And so. So shocker of shockers. By the time you're listening to this, maybe the Vikings will have traded for Adam Thielen. As of right now, it hasn't happened yet. But behind Justin Jefferson, there's a little bit of an early season crisis. Now notice I said the phrase behind Justin Jefferson. So like everything is still probably going to be okay. You have arguably the best receiver in football starting for you. But. But you do need other guys to fill out the starting lineup. You do. I mean we play with three receivers more often than not in the NFL. Or maybe the Vikings pivot to avoid their personnel issues at receiver.
- [62:42]
Robert Mays
I don't know.
- [62:42]
David
I'm just, I'm curious to see how they deal with the suspension, how they deal with the Nailer injury. It's obviously not an ideal way to start the season, but, you know, I'll take number 18 in purple and feel fine about it. At the end of the day, there's.
- [62:55]
Robert Mays
Going to be a receiver in the mix here that is not currently on the Minnesota Vikes rankings.
- [62:58]
David
Oh, one way, that would be my guess.
- [63:00]
Derek
And like, it is worrisome to me, like, seeing a bunch of like, every guy behind Justin Jefferson is either like not listed on our lads because they're suspended or they're hurt or they're a rookie.
- [63:09]
Robert Mays
It's a lot of.
- [63:10]
Derek
It's a lot of not great. I will say I have enough faith in Kevin o' Connell that they'll be able to weather it in part because, like, I remember him making people think that K.J. osborne was really good for a minute and I'm sure he can get that out of whoever is going to have to step up here.
- [63:24]
Robert Mays
Jalen Naylor's had some decent moments for the Mike, so they've been able to get by. This is going to be funny because we're recording this at 3:00 clock on Monday. I assume Adam Thielen is going to get signed by or traded for at like 5:30pm like, that feels inevitable at this point, but absolutely something worth keeping an eye on. My what I'm watching over the first month of the season is what is that Brian Flores wrinkle this year? You know what, what is the new thing that we see from this defense? And I think some of that may be expressed through the personnel. You know, the fact that they feel a little bit better about the pass rush when it comes to bringing four, not having to send extra bodies at the problem. They've always done that on third down. Like last year specifically, they really turned down the blitz knob on third down and just relied on getting home and playing just like true coverage behind it. Now, do you feel a little bit better about that overall formula? Because the players up front are better. This is a team, Derek. They played two matches, man, at the highest rate in the league. On third down last year was 14% of snaps, which was double nearly every other team in the league. And so is that, that. Is that kind of a signal about maybe some. What we'll see a little bit more of this year because one of the issues with the way that they've played and some of the hot pressures and what they do on early downs is that it leaves a lot of air in the coverage. And so are we going to get to a place where maybe they try to be a little bit Stickier while still protecting themselves and some of those two man looks. And they feel better about what they can do with their. For like, that's one specific thing where, like, do we see even a little bit more of that? I don't know the answer, but I know that every year. And you know, in talking to people there, this is at front of mind. It's like, what is our plan for this year compared to what it was last year? They've shown an ability to continue evolving. I'm just curious what the next step of that looks like for Flores in this group.
- [65:08]
Derek
I am too, for a number of reasons. One, obviously, when you invest that much in the front, you expect to not have to throw so much bullshit around with the front so that they can just do their jobs. And I think that that's certainly going to be a consideration for them. I think another thing is like, we saw at the tail end of last year, they started to try to play a little bit more man coverage in a bunch of different ways. And I think that was because, like, for as much as I think we've gotten used to Brian Flores being this like Spagnolo esque, play a lot of zone, do a lot of funky stuff up front, he's a man coverage guy. Like, in his, in his heart of hearts, like, that's what he was doing in Miami. It's what he's, I think, came up with in New England. Like, that's what he wants to do. And so I actually think a funny thing about the personnel is like, even though I probably feel worse or at least not better about the corner room than I did at this point last year, I think sometimes when the secondary is so bad, coaches will be like, dude, just run with them. We're just going to play man coverage. And I almost wonder if because the front is going to be better, that might be where we end up with this team.
- [66:03]
Robert Mays
You're more worried about the secondary than I am. I do think it might be a little bit and some like, high leverage moments late in the season against really good teams. Are you going to be worried about those guys? But maybe, but I've just. I think they've shown an ability to get by at those positions for so long that I just trust their ability to continue doing that. And then up front, obviously you have the two guys you signed and then what they get out of Dallas Turner this year I think is really interesting as well. Like, this is a guy who didn't play much last year because they felt so good about the edge room. That they already had. If you can use him, you know, bump him inside in certain pass rush situations, get three of those head rushers on the field, take some of the mileage off of either Hargrave or Allen over the course of the year. I'll. I'll be curious to see whether or not the horses they have up front allow them to play in a way where the secondary just matters a little bit less.
- [66:49]
David
The ceiling of this pass rush we're probably like I don't think people talk about the ceiling of their pass rush as top of the NFL. It could be I think the reason we the reason we don't is because it's hard to imagine Hargrave, Allen and Dallas Turner all really, you know, hitting their ceiling. In addition to, you know, the grenades of the world, Van Ginkel also firing on all cylinders. It's. It's hard to imagine all those pieces clicking into place. But if they do, that's really, really fun and could completely change the way I think a lot of people view the Vikings defense. Even though people already think it's good. I think that would be another level of just ability to generate pressure.
- [67:31]
Robert Mays
This is a frog question, but we're going to ask it anyway. What is success for the 2025 Minnesota Vikings?
- [67:38]
David
Dave no, I y' all go first because we we have we clearly differ on this topic and I want to react to what y' all have to say.
- [67:48]
Derek
Derek this roster is too good to not win like 11 games. Again like I just I don't I know the quarterback questions and all that and we'll see what we get from him. But like the defense even if I have some concerns with the secondary like I would be shocked if they're anything less than a top 10 defense and then offensively like like you have built the probably at least on paper what seems to be like the best offense in the league once Jordan Addison obviously comes back so it's just like I know the quarterback is the most important position but at the end of the day when you build a roster that good you should be a 1011 win team.
- [68:21]
Robert Mays
I think the supporting cast personnel wise of the Minnesota Vikings would or the Philadelphia Eagles would have a pretty they would have something to say about the the best like yeah 10 and other starters on the more proof of concept there a little I think that I would rather have Kevin OConnell than some combination of Kevin Patuo, Nick Sirianni but the players themselves I think the Eagles are doing okay I think based on the amount of talent that they Have. I think that being like a 10 win playoff team is success. I think anything less than that. Even if you have modest expectations for a first year quarterback back, I think Vikings fans would be a little bit disappointed if that's how it shook out. But you're not going to that place if you. They missed the playoffs. Dave, you don't think that's a disappointment for the Vikings?
- [69:07]
David
Did Brock Purdy like break all of our brains? Like is this just like can anybody step in and play quarterback to the point where like if the roster is good enough, we just put them in these conversations? I mean I get, I get it and I'm not trying to hate on JJ McCarthy. I'm honestly I'm excited to see what he can do, but I just can't get there with the idea that an unknown at quarterback won't stop you from saying this team should win 10 or 11 games like that in the, in one of the most competitive divisions in the NFL. By the way, 14 wins didn't win you the division last year guys.
- [69:45]
Derek
But that's in, in what world does he look promising and they don't make.
- [69:48]
David
The playoffs in a world where it's the NFL and mar like games are decided by six or fewer points like all the time and you look back at the season and say, say holy shit. If we hadn't gotten that false start, maybe we convert that third down and we win that game and we're in the playoffs instead of not. Like you mean to tell me if The Vikings go 8 and 9 and JJ McCarthy shows some flashes and they lose a couple games in heartbreaking fashion, is that a disappointing year? I mean, I guess, I guess it is because it means JJ is not the phenom that Vikings fans hope that he is is. But is that a bad season for a first year 23 year old quarterback if he looks promising and they win eight games?
- [70:34]
Robert Mays
I think that the question here is how what does promising mean? Because if he looks like promising and that means he's a middle of the road NFL quarterback, like let's say that looks as promising as a year one starter. Given everything else, that is probably enough for them to win 10 games. Given how strong everything else is. My stance on this is based on how this team is built and based on the resources that they've spent and the timeline that they are on, they have to be ready to win the super bowl next year. Can JJ McCarthy be on that sort of trajectory and have them not win 10 games this year?
- [71:13]
Derek
No. Like that world doesn't exist.
- [71:16]
David
I have to imagine that it does. I have to imagine that it does.
- [71:20]
Robert Mays
Like jj, this is you being the season step. But I just think that, I think that needle is very hard to thread with like those two things where he's promising enough for you to feel really good about your 20, 26 chances. But you went 8 and 9 this year with everything else they have on that roster.
- [71:36]
David
What if they go 10 and 7 and miss the playoffs because it was just that competitive?
- [71:41]
Robert Mays
That's okay.
- [71:42]
Derek
That I can listen. You get to like.
- [71:43]
Robert Mays
That's okay.
- [71:44]
Derek
Yes.
- [71:44]
Robert Mays
I don't think they can be a sub 500 team team. And we believe they're making good on what this plan was supposed to be. Even if they lose like they. Unless it's the opposite of two years ago and they have like the worst luck on one score game regression like in the history of football.
- [72:02]
David
What if JJ I mean this is a bad example because the packers wound up making the playoffs that year. But what if JJ has a Jordan Love esque rookie year, not rookie year. You know what I mean?
- [72:13]
Derek
First year they started talking about Jordan Love like a top 10 quarterback immediately. So then yes, that would be some success.
- [72:20]
David
Jj Half the year to get there though, half the year to get trajectory that they're on.
- [72:27]
Robert Mays
That is.
- [72:28]
David
They do that.
- [72:28]
Derek
That's success. Yes.
- [72:29]
Robert Mays
Yes.
- [72:30]
David
What if they don't make the playoffs? Like, I mean like the packers made the playoffs that year as the seventh seed. I'm just saying it's not like playoffs are bust. I guess that's my only point. Like there's got to be an area where JJ McCarthy has room to grow and struggle and look like a first year starter and not be a failure if the Vikings don't make the playoffs. I just, I, I can't hold him to that high of a standard. Maybe I should. Maybe I'm going easy on him.
- [72:58]
Robert Mays
I think that's fine. I think your original stance on this was that they could go like 8 and 9 and it would still be a successful season. That I cannot get on board with.
- [73:07]
Derek
The Cardinals last year. You can't do that.
- [73:09]
Robert Mays
If there is. If they're a 10 and 17 that doesn't make the playoffs in a really good NFC north and we feel very good about where the arrow is pointed. I think all of those things can be tr. Simultaneously.
- [73:18]
David
The like the, the Jordan Love packers that made the playoffs that year were 9 and 8. Like we're like above 500.
- [73:25]
Robert Mays
That's my only stance here. So they're above 500.
- [73:27]
David
So if a if a field goal if a Will Riker field goal clangs off the post and they lose one more game and go 8 and 9. It's all out the window.
- [73:36]
Robert Mays
I just watching this on YouTube. You let us know if an 8 and 9 season is successful for you. You, you, you let us know. You let us know in the comments below whether you'll be happy with an 8 and 9 season. Whether that is success.
- [73:49]
David
Minds I just I I, I got I it's so it's such a mind to try to project what a guy that we've never seen is going to do on a team. This good I guess is my I just I can't hold him to that high of a standard. But I mean he was the top 10 pick. Maybe that's on me. Maybe I should let's get to the Green Bay Packers.
- [74:08]
Robert Mays
We're going to be here for like six hours. The packers off season in 60 seconds sign Aaron Banks four years 77 million Nate Hobbs the cornerback four years 48 million extended Zach Tom four years 88 million million acquired Darian Canard from the from the Eagles Bell just you're throwing some random in here. The Darien Canard trade I did not expect to be a part of the packers off season in 60 seconds. I love it. Matthew Golden, 23rd overall and offensive tackle Anthony Belton in the second round. Savan Williams the receiver in the third round. Baron Sorell the edge rusher in the fourth round. Lost TJ Slayton in free agency. Moved on from J. Alexander, also from Eric Stokes. I hesitate to even ask you this question. I think you're the wrong person to ask it but I'm going to do it anyway. Derek, what are you excited to watch with the 2025 Green Bay Packers?
- [74:54]
Derek
What am I not excited to watch is a much shorter list. They're a top five offense and they're going to be again like why wouldn't they? Their quarterback is awesome. They have one of the best play callers in the league. We'll talk about the offensive line later but I still think they'll be fine and then all they've done is add to their skill player group and again we can talk about the questions of what the ceiling is for that but if we take a skill group that last year was able to produce a top five offense and we add a first round pick receiver, I don't know man. I'm just incredibly excited about where this thing's going to go and hopefully we get Jordan Love fully healthy for 17 games in a way that we did not get last year.
- [75:28]
Robert Mays
My answer to this is what my answer would have been at the end of last season. Sometimes there are new things we're excited to watch and we'll get to a couple of the new things with the Packers. But I'm excited to watch the packers this year for the same reason I've been excited to watch the packers over the last couple of years. Couple years. I love what they do offensively and defensively. I find it compelling. I find it interesting. Like the offense. It was funny, Derek, when we did the offensive trends show or the trends show we did a couple weeks ago and I asked 40, 50 coaches in the league what sort of trends we might see more of this year that were smaller ideas last year. And a ton of them mentioned the Packers. A ton. Just like little one off ideas the packers had and how the offense was structured and maybe how they could borrow from that. I think what the packers do and how they deploy the offense defense is just really well done. It's just structurally well put together. The way they use motion, the way that they use to construct their run game, just the way that they use personnel packages, there's just a lot of layers to it. And I feel the same way now about the defense. And you look at what they did defensively last year and talking to people there in Green Bay, again, it was one of my later stops. I went there a couple weeks ago. They all the stuff they did last season, all of the cloud coverage that they played, all the simulated pressures that they were using, that was not stuff they even like put in during training camp. Like they had to come to that place because they were accounting for the pass rush, just never really coming together in the way they hoped it would. And by the end of the season, this is a top 10 defense by a ton of different metrics. I mean, even scoring defense, they were. They gave up the six fewest points in the league. If you want to go to a very simple level, they were a top 10 defense by DVOA. I just think even the ways that they teach the defense, defense and just some of the elements of it, where they're doing all these different things reminds me a little bit of like what Mike McDonald does where you're doing all these pressures from different sorts of looks where in a way you're kind of formationing the offense in the way that offenses would typically formation you. And even in discussing it with people up there, the way that they kind of teach the defense, like the play calls on their defense are Extremely long because they teach the individual component parts in chunks the same way you would tag certain things for offensive players. And so that element of this we're on offense and defense. I just think that the ideas being expressed consistently are getting the most out of these players. That's what I like watching about the Green Bay Packers. But I think it's also very telling that that's our answer to this and no individual players or position groups or talent based things as it comes to the Packers.
- [78:00]
Derek
Yeah, it does scare me a little bit. Like I. It is funny that, like, I really do love the fact that I've never watched this team and felt like, man, they didn't have an answer. Like whether it's in a single game or it's like they get figured out for a couple of weeks and then three weeks later Matt LaFleur has something new or quarterback goes down and they come up with some crazy game plan. I've never felt. And then even again, that extends to the defense. Last year they changed things up. Even towards the second half of the season, they were doing some different stuff. Like they are just the coaching staff that is so well thought. And they're really, other than the quarterback, are not that many players where I'm like, this guy really gets me. And like, the other guys I want to get excited about are like, I love Tucker Kraft, but like, it's not in the same way that I love, like Brock Bowers, you know, where he is just a truly, like, passing game shifting player. So, like, even their best players, like, reside in this weird spot where they're not quite as explosive or as exciting as other teams.
- [78:53]
Robert Mays
They're football nerd curiosities. Like they have a hundred of those guys and then no superstars. And we'll talk about that in a little bit. Let's talk about the swing points with the 2025 Green Bay Packers. Dave, why don't you kick us off here? Where could the packers season pivot this.
- [79:07]
David
Year along those same lines? Stop me if you've heard this before. I just want to see if a pass rusher finally ascends for Green Bay. And we'll talk plenty about receiver as well. I think that applies here too. But as long as we're talking about the defense, defense, I just want to see if somebody can step up and be that guy that he's supposed to be. The obvious name is Lucas Van Ness. Heading into year three, there's a lot of reasons why you want him to do it, but I don't really care. Like, we at this point I feel pretty comfortable in the idea of who Rashawn Gary is going to be unless he makes later in his career jump. That just hasn't happened to that superstar degree quite yet. It could be Van Ness, it could be Kingsley and Bari. If Edron Cooper wants to do even more as a pass rusher, it really doesn't matter to me who it is. But I think their front needs another badass and preferably a superstar caliber player. I don't know how realistic that is, but at the very least you need a 1B to what Rashawn Gary offers you.
- [80:14]
Derek
This is not going to make you feel any better, Dave, but I do think probably their best candidate for like a front superstar is edging Cooper at linebacker.
- [80:20]
David
Right? Like yeah, I wouldn't be surprised honestly.
- [80:23]
Derek
Because like again some of the edge Rogers is like maybe Van Ness takes a step, maybe Gary can get back to what he was a couple of years ago and that was close ish to superstar level. But other than that you're kind of asking for a lot of the pass rush. It's probably going to again be a better than the sum of their parts via the scheme type of team. But Edrin Cooper, man, he's, he's still. Cooper still has a long way to go in terms of fully making sure he's triggering the right way all the time. I think in coverage he can still be really herky jerky but, but like movement skills wise they just don't make a whole lot of linebackers like that. And I am really excited for him in year two of what this defense could be.
- [80:57]
Robert Mays
I will throw another name out there that I think is somebody that to me still has a little bit of untapped potential. Year one in the system last year. I'll be curious if Devonte Wyatt can take like a step forward this year. I think that's one more guy where I don't think the gaps are totally filled in yet. Like I'm kind of with you with Rashawn Gary David. It's. I, I felt like we kind of wanted him to be something that he hasn't been over the last couple years after getting that contract. He's never really been the player he was before injury when we saw him just look kind of borderline dominant in stretches before that happened. I do think that with Wyatt and Van Ness, maybe I'm just trying to build in a little bit of development from young, highly drafted players that might not come, but I do think it might be there. And I will say that I Think along with being able to add Ed Cooper to the mix and then being creative and how they're trying to get after the quarterback. And you look at the numbers. Last year, only two teams in the NFL had a bigger difference in their pressure rate when bringing five and bringing four than the packers did. They had to blitz in order to make something happen. And when they did, they were actually pretty good at generating pressure. So I do think they'll lean into those things again this year. But I think the other part of this, in trying to make a case for why this group can be collectively more than the sum of its partners, they changed over defensive line coaches this year. And I think DeMarcus Covington, who they brought in from the Patriots. Derek we saw the Patriots build really, really good defenses without elite edge rushing talent consistently in part because of how the pass rush plan cohesively was built. You're rushing together games stunts all of that little tendencies. Building that menu. I think that's been a focus for them this offseason, knowing they may not have that ace guy walking through the door. And I think collectively there might be enough B level talent here if that comes together. And Cooper can kind of be that thing that supercharges it for this to not actively be a problem for this team over the course of the season.
- [82:50]
Derek
I'm really looking forward to that change. That's one of the more smaller coaching changes that I think could go a long way. Because it's not just that the pass rush plans in New England were always really well thought out. It's that like the fundamentals of what they were doing was always really, really good. And for a while, of course, like Bill Belichick has a huge hand in that. But like their linebackers, the way that they would take on blocks, their, you know, the way that their edge defenders would take on, you know, set the edge, the way that their defensive tackles would throw a knee down and like take on double teams, like, it was just always checking the right boxes. Even if they weren't the most physically dominant guys. If you can add a little bit of that to a Packers defensive line that obviously has a ton of talent, like a ton of first round picks, a ton of guys, they've even spent like second and third round picks on like, the talent is just there. If they can squeeze out 15% more of that from those guys, you go from like pretty good curiosity thing to like an okay, this can actually help you out type of unit.
- [83:39]
Robert Mays
And maybe again, maybe I'm telling myself a story here about the fact that that's still on the table, I still believe that's still on the table. I don't, I don't think this pass rush specifically even with the same players is just locked in, in terms of the quality that we're going to see from that group this year.
- [83:53]
David
I don't disagree with you, Robert. I just hope, hope something happens to change what we're talking about next preseason because I, I don't know how many years I got left in me of.
- [84:03]
Robert Mays
You just wait. You just wait. We're going to get, we're going to get here in a second when, when we're talking about what's keeping me up at night. That's coming here in a moment. My swing point for the packers kind of similar, this idea of like, all right, like are we going to have the same conversation over again? I really want to know what Jordan Love is. Like, really like, what is he really.
- [84:22]
Derek
Because what do you think he is right now?
- [84:24]
Robert Mays
I think he is a quarterback with unbelievable flashes that is not consistent enough over the course of a 17 game season. I know the injuries, I'm aware of that. But I think internally there are frustrations about the offense being great in stretches and not being able to sustain it. And I think the quarterback is often an expression of that problem. I don't think the problem resides with, with him, but I think that's the issue with the offense and he has the same sorts of issues. This team can be explosive, they can push the ball down the field. He is capable of truly high level moments. But when you look at it down in and down out, the statistical consistency and I think the decision making consistency that they get, that leads to some of that volatility. If we can smooth out some of the edges with this guy, what can he be by the time we get to the end of the year? Are we talking about him as the sixth or seventh best quarterback in the the league? Are we talking about him as the 12th or 13th best quarterback in the league? And I think why that really, really matters is because when you built the rest of the team with a lot of good but not great players, you can survive with that. If you're the Buffalo Bills because you have Josh Allen. Is he closer to Josh Allen or is he closer to Gino Smith? Right. Like where does Jordan Love fall on that spectrum? I think becomes incredibly important, important given the rest of the construction with this team. And you look at it last year and I do think that this stuff can kind of come back to earth a little bit this team was 28th in total EPA on third down. Last year they were 28th and third down success rate. If that just comes to a level that it looked like in 2023 when they were really good in those areas and you feel a little bit less volatility because of the steadying hand he can kind of have in those moments. I think we will talk about Jordan Love in a different way and I, I think we'll potentially talk about the Green Bay packers in a different way. I have a lot of faith in what he can be. I think he's a really good player. But where does he fall on that spectrum by the end of the season? I think that ultimately will help swing what this Packer season looks like and feels like.
- [86:25]
Derek
I think with quarterbacks like Jordan Love, where they fall into this, like outside of the top six. I mean basically a lot of the young guys that we were talking about when we did the show a month, a month and a half ago, whatever it is, I think when it becomes clear that they are not one of those fire breathing dragons, the Lamar Jacksons, the Josh Allens, I think we have a tendency to get like a little bit too doomery about them and that. Like I don't think that you're doing that necessarily. I know you're not saying that he's like quarterback 16 and he's like Baker Mayfield or whatever, but I just like, I think if he lands at quarterback eight forever, that's fine. Like you can win a lot of games and be a Super bowl team with that guy consistent, that's fine.
- [87:08]
Robert Mays
I think that's high enough in the pecking order, but it also to me becomes what does that look like? What is the complexion of him as quarterback 8? And I think the overall volatility and especially some of the decision making has to even out a little bit for him to reach that sort of ceiling. I. If he's quarterback, here's my question. I guess this is where I sit with it. Is he quarterback 8 every week or is he quarterback 2 some weeks and then quarterback 23 other weeks?
- [87:33]
Derek
Here's the other thing. I don't think he's nearly as inconsistent as people paint him to be. I think it's just that his bad moments look dumb as shit. Like when he throws a pick, it's like a. Like when he throws a pick, I can't defend him. Some of those are nasty, like he's just doing the dumbest thing possible. But he doesn't actually do that that often. And we've talked about how much he. Or at least not like an outward, you know, more than other quarterback. He threw as many picks as Jared Goff last year. Like he who Jared Goff.
- [88:00]
Robert Mays
It's not an interception thing to me. It's like a spray thing. It's like a consistent accuracy thing. I think that there's a volatility to his game that other great quarterbacks do not have. And I think he is a poster child for one of these guys that we attach ourselves to the high end moments and we choose to ignore the low end moments because we believe that there's going to be more high end moments moving forward. And I'm open to that idea. I just want to see it happen. And in a world where he's not hurt and they're not dropping the ball every single time, like they're not leading the league in drops, I do think that we can see a better version of it. I just want to see it happen.
- [88:34]
David
Let me ask you this, Robert. It ties into something I'm dying to know about the packers too. You, you made an allowance for the injury last year. How much does that weigh in your mind? Because the funny thing about Jordan Love, we've been talking about this dude for five years. He is like, he's one of the most discussed players of the last half decade because of the circumstances that he joined the packers and entered the the league. We got two seasons of data and one of them was significantly hampered by injury. And I, I'm not trying to make excuses for the guy. That's just true. I mean, I thought his season was over at the end of that Eagles game on opening weekend of the season. So if one of his two seasons as the starter was at least moderately impacted by injury, how much do we fully know about the guy? And that's. I'm dying to find that out.
- [89:28]
Derek
Well, that's the question.
- [89:29]
Robert Mays
That's literally what I said. I said, how is Jordan Love really? That's what I want to know. But.
- [89:33]
David
But no, but the reason is different is it's one thing to say, like, I know there were injuries, but if injuries drastically affected 50% of his seasons, then how, I guess how harshly are we going to judge the guy?
- [89:46]
Robert Mays
I think that they should be addressing him harshly right now. I think this is a question of how good is Jordan. This is a very simple thing. How good Jordan Love is to me, swings the packers season. I'm not even making a statement on how good. I think he'll.
- [89:58]
Derek
Yeah, I think the difference here is, is at least for me like two things. One, I think, Robert, you can tell me if I'm wrong. You like what Jordan Love has done and can be. I like full throatedly believe in everything that he's done. Like, I think he's a really, really good player. And then I think the lows are just like not as bad. Like I really just, they don't scare me that much.
- [90:16]
Robert Mays
I believe in what Jordan Love can be. I'm just not exactly sure what it is right now. That's what I said with that.
- [90:20]
Derek
That's fair.
- [90:20]
Robert Mays
All right. What is keeping you up at night, Derek? About the 2025 Green Bay packers, probably the offensive line.
- [90:30]
Derek
And I know I joked earlier this off season that I was going to let it, I was just going to drop it and be fine with it however it shakes out. But we're here with division previews and this is the last time we're going to talk about it. And I'm a little concerned that they don't have a clear starting five at this point. Like Jordan Morgan. I don't know if he's going to even end up in the lineup. He's been kind of competing at the left tackle, tackle spot. He was playing left guard for Aaron Banks in the last preseason game. Like, it's just, I don't know what they want to do with him. They obviously have Elton Jenkins moving to center. It's just I think they'll be at minimum like an average offensive line. But I think if this unit wants to be like the fire breathing dragon kick ass in the playoffs type of team, they probably need to be like the sixth or seventh best offensive line in the football, which I think is possible. But it makes me scared to proclaim that when they don't have a clear start starting five.
- [91:17]
Robert Mays
I think this question of is it going to be pretty good or is it going to be more than that? That's what's keeping me up at night about the packers on like a large scale level. I'm, I'm. What's keeping me up at night is we're going to get to the end of this season and we're still going to think this team just doesn't have enough star players. Yeah, they're going to be really good. They're going to pick on the bad teams all year and then they're going to go oh and six against the Vikings, the Lions and the Eagles, which they did last year. That's, that's my concern. If you look at over since 2020, 2021, the top 50 picks for the packers since 20 from 2021 to 2024. I'm going to read the list of names off to you. Jordan Morgan, Edron Cooper, Lucas Van Ness, Luke Musgrave, Jaden Reed, Quay Walker, Devonte Wyatt, Christian Watson, Eric Stokes, Josh Myers. Those are the top 50 picks for the Packers. Since the 2021 draft, the packers players have made zero collected Pro Bowls that they drafted. That seems like the bullions are silly. Yeah, Tom is a very good player, right?
- [92:16]
David
Still not good to have zero.
- [92:17]
Robert Mays
But it's still not good to have zero and it doesn't matter.
- [92:20]
David
Especially as a legacy franchise that like gives more attention than other franchises.
- [92:26]
Robert Mays
The Lions over that stretch have 11. Oh my God, 11, 11 Pro bowl seasons from the players that they have drafted between 2021 and 2024. And I think there are a lot of good players in the Packers. I wonder how many great players there are in the packers. And I wonder if that overall ratio dooms you to being a team that is exciting and fun and interesting and can beat the shit out of teams that are worse than you. And when you get into those moments where you need those field tilting players in the playoffs, do you have them? And this is a consistent conversation we've had about the packers for a while. But that is my answer to what is keeping me up at night is that we are going to get to the end of the year and we're having the same conversation that we've been having over the last couple of years.
- [93:05]
David
Robert's birthday has him feeling he's the existential one today.
- [93:08]
Robert Mays
I think that's right. That's right. As I turn the corner toward 40 I get a little bit worried about this. Dave, what is keeping you up at night about the Green Bay Packers?
- [93:18]
David
I'm just concerned what happens if the takeaways don't come this year. Obviously great one they were, they were top five in the league and takeaways last year they had north of 30. They were plus 12 in turnover margin. And the scary thing about that, we talked about this with the Bills in the AFC east preview. The Bills just do it with a collection of plays right. Like they just got got guys getting hands on footballs. The packers got 25% of their takeaway production from Xavier McKinney. He had eight picks which. That's awesome. That's really cool. Xavier McKinney. But I went back and looked. I was just curious. Ironically, Xavier McKinney and Kirby Joseph both had eight plus interceptions last year. Before that, the last time, the last three times that A safety in the NFL had that many picks in a season. Kevin Byard did it for Tennessee in 17. Reggie Nelson did it for Cincinnati in 2015, and then all the way back in 2012, Stevie Brown did it for the Giants. That's it. At least until you get back to prime Ed Reed, who did it every other fricking year because he was Ed Reed. It's not a. It's not a thing you can hang your hat on. Even if Xavier McKinney is an amazing player. Eight interception seasons don't come around very often. Jair Alexander was second on the team with two, by the way, and he's obviously in Baltimore more now. So I'm worried that this is not a sustainable model for success. And if they don't have 31 takeaways, if somebody doesn't step up and have six to eight interceptions, what does this defense look like? Because I think that was a very big feather in their cap last year.
- [94:50]
Robert Mays
There's no doubt about that. If you look at some of the numbers, I was actually kind of shocked by this. They were actually bottom 10 in passing success rate overall last season. They were much better in the second half of the year as they kind of figure out who they wanted to. To be. But down to down, there were just quality issues. Overall, they did subsist on those turnovers, and I think that they subsisted on that. And just smoke and mirrors on defense. And whether or not they can get by with that same formula again this year I think is a worthwhile question. I will say I'm a little bit less worried, Derek, about the quality of players in the secondary than I think other people are. Like, I think some people are looking at the corners on this team and being really worried about it. I think Nate Hobbs in one outside corner, a combination of Keyshawn, Keyshawn Nixon and Carrington Valentine at the other one, which Yvonne Bullard in the slot, Evan Williams and Xavier McKinney on the back end. I'm actually okay with that from a personnel perspective. I don't think that's keeping me up at night. But overall, down to down, they did need turnovers to be the past events that they wanted to be last year.
- [95:48]
Derek
The secondary worries me a little bit in, in the sense of like, I don't know what the ceiling is when those are your outside corners. Like, you don't. You don't really have a guy where I'm like, yeah, he's going to lock down every single game. And that worries me a little bit. But another consideration Even though they did get lucky with the turnovers last year. But this secondary was also like mega banged up last year. Especially like Evan Williams missed a lot of the season. He was like, quietly really good when he was playing. And so I'm excited to see what he's going to look like going into, into year two of the defense. So, like, if they can be a little bit healthier on that end and Nate Hobbs can give them a little bit of, of attitude in a way that they've been missing when, whenever Jair Alexander is not on the field, I do think that that could go a decent way for them.
- [96:27]
Robert Mays
Let's get to what we're watching over the first month of the season with the Green Bay Packers. Dave, what do you got?
- [96:33]
David
I'm curious to see if Matthew golden is going to be a regular rookie, you know, like a rookie receiver or a, a dude with a capital D. And I think that that's one of the single biggest things that could influence this season. And look, if, if he gets out to a slow start, if it's not an amazing September, that's not a huge deal, especially with all the other weapons the packers have in their offense. Xavier Worthy last year had a very forgettable start to the season. Like he couldn't get on the same page with Mahomes. They had plenty of snafus looking deep down the field. He developed into a very good player for them on a Super bowl run. So September is not going to write the book on his rookie season. But, but what if he goes out there and is just a dude from the word go? I mean, you can look back over the last few years and see receivers that just get it. I mean, Malik neighbors, I don't even want to compare him to Malik neighbors, but even Zay Flowers had 250 receiving yards in the first month of his career. Drake London, 230. CD Lamb had 20 catches for 300 yards and two touchdowns in the first month, first, first month of his career. A lot of guys hit the ground running and it makes a huge difference. And obviously with how much we talk about the packers pass catchers, if, if he is a guy from the very beginning, it could change my entire opinion on Green Bay.
- [97:55]
Derek
I feel like wide receiver more than most for rookies is one of those ones where by the end of September you can just check the box like you're just, like you just don't. You just know if he's, if, if he's that kind of guy and some guys can develop later on into something solid. But the guys who are like Pro bowl ish level, it's usually like, all right, bang, they're good.
- [98:13]
Robert Mays
Yeah. I think that what he is is important for just the overall hierarchy of their pass catching group as a whole. I mean, you look at the numbers. Last year this team really, really struggled against man coverage. It was something that teams were able to pick on them with. We go back to the Vikings. The Vikings had this one off game plan against the packers where they played all this man coverage because. Because the packers were so bad against teams playing man against them last year. And Matthew golden being able to come in and just be one reliable option if you put him in those situations, I think that's the goal here. And if you look at just what they need, right go at this going from a group that we have a lot of unique skill sets that combine make us into a dangerous offense, to what do we look like in high leverage moments? It's how many guys. I think this is the way they're looking at it. How many guys are merge that we know we can count on in those high leverage moments in their minds? I think Matthew golden is already one of those guys and I think Tucker Kraft is somebody I would also throw in there. Where you go from him being, you know, a rookie to last year being this like, yeah, yak piece where you're just leaning into the athletic gifts that he has to this year. I think they're really impressed by some of the route running nuance and just some of the overall acumen that he has started to develop within the offense. So I do think that those two guys being pieces within this offense, they weren't last year. Even if Tucker Kraft was already here. I do think that goes a really long way. And the other part of this is that Matthew golden has had some concentration drops. Like that was an issue for him last year in college. Like there were some drops, but his ability to go up and get the football, they have not had that. Like there are not guys within this offense that are going out and making plays that are there to be made. And it's not even just a drop issue. It's how many receptions are being created by your receivers. That has been an issue for them. And I do think that's actually a strength of Matthew Golden's game.
- [100:01]
Derek
He actually reminds me.
- [100:02]
Robert Mays
Small player.
- [100:03]
Derek
Well, I was going to say he reminds me a little bit of like, honey, I shrunk Amari Cooper just in terms of like incredibly explosive. Like it's going to have these funky drops as a concentration Thing but like can go up and get the ball. He's pretty explosive. He can win one on one. Like if he can be that for them, that's. That's a huge win.
- [100:21]
Robert Mays
Yeah, I totally agree. And so what he is. And just again, how that pass catching group shakes out is one of the things I'm absolutely watching over the first month of the season. Derek, here's the offensive line, which you've already talked about. What does success look like? Dave, for the 2025 Green Bay Packers.
- [100:38]
David
Win the division.
- [100:40]
Robert Mays
Win.
- [100:41]
David
Win the NFC North. And no if, ands or buts about it. Like merely making the playoffs. For how we talk about this team. Youngest roster in the league. Oh, guys are going to take the leap. All that good stuff.
- [100:53]
Robert Mays
It.
- [100:53]
David
It was cute last year. Win the division this year. If I am supposed to buy into the vision, if I'm supposed to believe that this team is ascending, obviously it's a, it's a tough ask. You mentioned it. They got swept by the Vikings and the Lions last year, but the continuity is there. You would like to believe that these young players are growing into their prime. If we're going to believe, you know, the whole conversation we just had about Jordan, Jordan Love. Prove it. It's there for you to win the division. The Lions. You have reason to believe that the Lions have taken a step back. J.J. mcCarthy is the quarterback in Minnesota. He's never played in the NFL. Go in the division. Be good all year. Don't make me wonder whether or not you're good at football in December.
- [101:38]
Derek
I want more for them than that. Like be in the NFC Championship game. I just think this is, this is.
- [101:43]
Robert Mays
In your own personal universe that you've created for yourself. This is what's exceptional successes for the Packers.
- [101:47]
David
Jumping straight from, from now not winning the division to getting to the Final Four. I love it.
- [101:53]
Derek
I mean, you already talked about the rest of the division collapsing. So that part I don't even feel like I have to really, you know, persuade anyone on. I just, I really think if Jordan Love is healthy and the defense takes any amount of step, like this team has that in them and there is like, unless Philly can really, really maintain it, which is possible given the roster that they have. Like there is a little bit of a power vacuum, I think at the top of the nfc. Like, I don't see why they can't be the team that steps into it.
- [102:19]
Robert Mays
I'm with Dave. I think winning the division and I think removing any caveats and how we talk about them no longer Is it? Oh, the packers are good for the youngest team in the league. Just removing any sort of qualifiers from how good the packers are and then when they need division, I think that would be success for this team. We're going to take one more quick break and despite my protests, we are going to preview the Chicago Bears. Thy ticket lady Jennifer of Coolidge. Well, many thanks good sir. Here is my Discover card.
- [102:52]
David
They accept Discover at Renaissance fairs?
- [102:55]
Robert Mays
Yeah, they do here. Discover is accepted at the places I love to shop.
- [102:59]
David
Geth with the times.
- [103:01]
Robert Mays
With the times. You're playing the loot. Yeah, and it sounds pretty good, right?
- [103:07]
David
Discover is accepted accepted at 99% of places that take credit cards nationwide. Based on the February 2025 Nielsen report.
- [103:14]
Robert Mays
Big news. Boost Mobile is now sending experts nationwide to deliver and set up customers new phones at home or work. Wait, we're going on tour? Not a tour. We're delivering and setting up customers phones so it's easier to upgrade. Let's get in the tour bus and hit the road. No, not a tour bus. It's a regular car we use to deliver and set up customers phones at home or work. Are you a groupie on this tour?
- [103:32]
Derek
We deliver and set up phones.
- [103:34]
Robert Mays
It's not a tour.
- [103:35]
Derek
Oh, you're definitely a groupie.
- [103:37]
Robert Mays
Introducing store to door Switch and get a new device with expert setup and delivery wherever you're at.
- [103:41]
David
Delivery available for select devices purchased@boostmobile.com here's how to stay alive longer so you can enjoy Boost Mobile's unlimited plan with a price that never goes up. Do not mistake a wasp nest for a pinata. Stay alive and switch now at boost mobile.
- [103:54]
Robert Mays
After 30 gigs, customers may experience lower speeds.
- [103:56]
David
Customers will pay $25 a month as.
- [103:57]
Robert Mays
Long as they remain active on the.
- [103:58]
Derek
Boost Mobile Unlimited plan.
- [104:04]
Robert Mays
Our Preview for the 2025 Bears their off season in 60 seconds. Hired Ben Johnson as the head coach. Hired Dennis Allen as the DC Declan Doyle as the offensive coordinator. Signed Dio Adangbo, 3 years 48 million. Signed Grady Jarrett, 3 years 43 million. Drew Dalman, 3 years 42 million. Traded for Joe Tuni. Sign him to an extension. Traded for Jonah Jackson. Signed him to a small extension. That was kind of really a pay cut. Kyle Gordon, 3 years 40 million. TJ Edwards, 33 years 20 million. Tyson Bent to a two year extension. Small deals for Olamidia Zakus, Durham Smyth, Devin Duvernay. Draft Coulson Love, 10th overall, Luther Burton, 39th overall Ozzie Trillo, 30 56th overall and defensive tackle Shamar Turner, 62nd overall Lost Keenan, Keenan Allen, Coleman Shelton, Tevin Jenkins and Daryl Taylor. Despite my previous tone, I am going to start this conversation about what I'm excited to watch for the 2025 Chicago Bears. I'm excited to watch the an offense that theoretically Derek should give this team and its quarterback an actual shot. It has been a while since that has happened.
- [105:04]
Derek
I mean I don't remember the last time that it really has happened. Unless you want to count like the one year with Mitch Trubisky where they were just doing a bunch of RPO nonsense which wasn't a fun version of offense to even watch. Like it kind of worked but it wasn't fun. This with Ben Johnson coming from the, the most well oiled machine being the, the engine of that most well oiled machine, the offensive line investments a million different skill players which like did they need to draft inside all those guys times that they did, who knows? But like now they have as many options as they do and you have a quarterback you spent the first overall pick on a year and a half ago. Like I just, there's a chance that this is really, really awesome to watch.
- [105:39]
David
It's funny. What's the thing that goes around social media that's like whatever looks like it looks like a phantom until a phantom pulls up like, I can't.
- [105:50]
Robert Mays
Chrysler 300.
- [105:51]
Derek
Chrysler 300.
- [105:53]
David
I can't. I can't believe I got excited about last year's version of the Bears. Like I totally fell for that. I did and I'll own it. But now sitting here with this situation, I'm like, why did I think that was good? And hopefully a year from now I'm not doing the same thing, but I really am. I'm excited to see a lot of the same personnel with a better offensive line, with a coach who knows how to design and call an offense. I'm excited to see what Ben Johnson has in mind for Caleb Williams. I'm not, not saying the Bears are going to do any goofy college football shit, but Caleb Williams just as a, as a guy is a big departure from Jared Goff. Like Jared Goff is a throwback quarterback. Like you don't want him leaving the pocket more often than not. Whereas Caleb Williams is an archetype for the modern like mobile Gumby armed quarterback. I'm just, I'm excited to see what, what a quarterback that talented looks like in a Ben Johnson offense.
- [106:51]
Derek
I think what's actually really gotten me excited to like what really I think got me over the line with this. Obviously all the skill Players are cool. Ben Johnson's great, but it's the way that the coordinator is being talked about. Like we all remember the Jackson, Smith and Jigba clip last year about Shane Walter. He's like, are we live? Whereas every clip of guys talking about the Ben Johnson offense, they might say like it's hard and like there's a lot going on. And that's absolutely. But they seem pretty enthusiastic about how different all of this is. And that to me is like, okay, if guys are at least buying into like what they think the ceiling for this can be, even if it's a little rocky at first. Like that is incredibly encouraging to me.
- [107:24]
Robert Mays
We talked about this last year, Derek, when we were previewing the NFC north and we were talking about Shane Waldron and I was just talking about how hard that Seattle offense felt. Even if the underlying numbers looked pretty good for those couple years. The Lions offense does not feel hard. The Lions offense has never felt hard. Think about the stat I just mentioned earlier in the show about the lions who had 107 EPA on throws less than five air yards last year. They did such an incredible job of building in the details of that offense to make it easier for everybody. And there are two things that I'll point out here. I've mentioned this conversation a bunch over the last year, but in talking to Jared Goff last year about his relationship with Ben Johnson and the dialogue between those two guys and how well and how clearly Ben Johnson articulated the intention of what they were trying to accomplish within the offense offense and how easy that made Jared Goff's life as he was figuring out the mechanics of each individual play. That is something that was clearly missing from what the Bears offense was last year. There was no intent behind how anything was going in the way that Caleb Williams was seeing what was in front of him. That will be communicated to him clearly this year. Whether or not he can handle that is entirely different thing, but that will be communicated to him clearly. And the other part of this is deployment of players. Like the ways that the receivers in the Chicago offense last year received used made no sense. 0. The skill sets were never used in the proper way. And even now, looking at what they're doing where Rome is, your ex DJ Moore is like this movable piece that you're going to scheme up touches for. And then Luther Burden is this kind of. And we'll see Zakus as well. But like Luther Burton is this kind of like explosive slot player that you'll create some yak opportunities for. I have Faith that when you watch it on Sunday, the component parts and how it is constructed will make sense.
- [109:04]
Sponsor/Ad Voice
Sense.
- [109:05]
Robert Mays
And that's all I'm willing to say. But I'm at least excited to watch an offense where I'm at least willing to say that. Derek, what are you excited to watch for the 2025 Chicago Bears?
- [109:17]
Derek
This is at least partly because like I knew we were going to talk about the offense, which is obviously the most excited part. But I am like genuinely really excited about Dennis Allen and his defense. He's been. I think we all hate Dennis Allen, the head coach, which is fair. It's not turned out very well the last couple of times that he's done it. But Dennis Allen, the defensive coordinator, man, like some of his defenses, especially earlier on in his tenure with the Saints were awesome and obviously they had really good players that were able to do that. But the way that he called stuff, the way that, you know, I think we think of a lot of different guys like right now as like being on the forefront of a lot more of the quarters too high stuff. But like Dennis Allen really was also one of those guys who was kind of getting ahead of that and playing a lot of the match quarter stuff because Demario Davis could cover the middle of the field. They had two safeties that could handle all that stuff. Like Lattimore could just run with guys in tight coverage. So I think he's always been a guy who's, who's been able to build the right defense with the players that he has and they brought in a number of those guys especially on the front to help him do that. You bring in a veteran like Grady Jarrett up front to be a little bit explosive. Dayo Adangua on the edge next to Montez sweat, which just creates these two massive 275 pound long arm freak people that I just. That's exactly what Dennis Allen wants. So I just feel like they've. Dennis Allen to me is a defensive mind who has a very clear vision for what he wants to do, even if it isn't always as exciting as you know, the Brian Flores is and Steve Spagnolo. So I just, I trust that this is going to be a good unit and if things go well, like they can be a top 10 defense again.
- [110:41]
Robert Mays
There's no doubt. I mean you look at what Ben with Dennis Allen's history has been over the last several years when he's been a primary defensive coordinator versus a head coach, even his first year as a head coach, the Saints defense was good every single Year, like every single year. The Saints defense was good and I think the Bears have the requisite talent to be a pretty good defense. In a Dennis Allen defense. That hire was like one of the more like the things that was most exciting about the early days of the Ben Johnson announcement is that Dennis Allen will be coming over as the defensive coordinator in this cycle. Specifically, it was going to be hard to do better than convincing Dennis Allen to be your defensive coordinator, especially when you already have had this four down personnel that fit what his vision of a defense is anyway.
- [111:22]
Derek
That's actually a really good point. They didn't have to do, you know, they brought in some of his guys that he wants, but they didn't have to do as much shifting with the personnel as you might with like the way that we've talked about the Falcons or whoever.
- [111:31]
David
Yes, I'm all, I'm all the way in on any failed head coach who goes back to calling a defense. Like I, I'm sure it doesn't have a 100% hit rate, but it hits very, very often from, from Dan Quinn to Vic Fangio to JF Steve Spagnolo. How. I mean, come on. Like the, the list goes on and on and on. So I got no problem buying that this is going to work out great.
- [111:59]
Robert Mays
Let's talk about these swing points for the 2025 Bears. Where do you think the Bears season could potentially pivot?
- [112:05]
Derek
Derek, Speaking of that defense, while I do think that they can be very good, I think the ceiling might be determined on how much we get out of the secondary. I think on paper it's a really good unit. Like Jalen Johnson is one of the better corners in the NFL. Tyreek Stevenson, I know is like kind of a meme because of that play and he did not play as very well down the stretch of that season. But I think we all believe that the, like, the potential for a really good player is there. When Kyler Gordon's on the field, he's a demon from the slot. So like their corners I think are really good. And then in theory, like if Brisker is healthy and on the field, he's solid. So like they have a lot of talent back there. I'm a little bit dubious of a couple of things. One, Jalen Johnson is coming into the year a little bit banged up. So that's a bit of a question.
- [112:46]
Robert Mays
That has not been talked about enough. By the way, the fact that Jalen Johnson still has not practiced and he's the most important player on the Bears defense.
- [112:52]
Derek
Yeah, that like the seventh best corner in the league just isn't ready for the season. Is a little bit concerning, especially when again, like, they really need him. Stevenson again. I, I think we like the potential, but I think him getting, getting back to his best ball is a little bit of a question. And then the safety room isn't terrible, but they also are feel like weird fits to me for a Dennis Allen defense. Like this to me is this is a unit where Bayard is like a clear center fielder at this stage in his career. Brisker, you want a little bit more down, you know, kind of just playing in the box and hitting and stuff. Dennis Allen, to me, when I think of his best defense, they do a little bit more split field safety stuff. So I wonder how that works out. Like, I think on paper this is good, but there are like, more questions than I would have liked.
- [113:30]
David
I think I was going to say this, this, this is a theme for the show, I guess, but like, the investment of capital doesn't always guarantee results. But like, I have the Bears, our lads in front of me, and if you just go down it and look at where the guys were drafted or what they're being paid, you're like, holy shit. This could be a really special defense, but it's not played on paper. I mean, you want more from Montez sweat this year. You want Grady Jarrett to be the guy that we remember from his best days in Atlanta. We want Jalen Johnson to be healthy. We want Jaquan Brisker to be healthy. The linebackers make a lot of money. You hope that they maintain their level of play. Like, there's a lot of room for variance here. And I think my big swing point would just be what is the ceiling of the defense? Like, if all that stuff I just said happens, this could be a classic, amazing Bears defense. And if not, then maybe it's a little disappointing and maybe this team's not as good as we thought because the. They can't pick it up if the offense struggles.
- [114:32]
Robert Mays
You want me to build the case for you? Because I can very easily build the case for you because I think about it all the time in terms of how this team could reach the ceiling defensively. They need one of the young front players to be a different player than he was last year. Like, they need a significant step forward. And I'm including Dio Dangbo in that. Right. Like, the argument for why you would sign Odangbo to that contract is he's young enough where his best football is arguably in front of him. So if we can have Odengbo or Gavon Dexter be like a, a step above what they were last year. And Montez Sweat, who apparently has looked fantastic during training camp, like they are very happy about how he's coming into this season versus how he looked last year. If you have two guys up front that are true difference makers and your depth is just significantly better there, which it is, it's undeniably better, especially in the interior. We'll see what happens with Shamar Turner when he gets back. He's been banged up, but if it's Andrew Billings, Gravon, Dexter, Grady, Jared and Shamar Turner versus what they had last year, it's a very different situation. And then Austin Booker as like your third edge rusher in year two, can you get a little bit more of him? So I think that's part of it. And the secondary, I think it's Tyreek Stevenson recapturing some of the flashes that we saw from him as a rookie. I don't think he was ever in danger of losing that other outside corner job. Like he's too talented and we've seen him be a good player and stretches in the NFL. I think that's kind of this thing that they've kind of alluded to where we're just trying to create as much competition as possible with every single position. And that's why Naysha on Wright has pushed him a little bit. And then what I think that. I think Kevin Byard is a better tackle or in a better, a little bit more physical at this point his career still than you maybe you do, Derek. And so I do think that the safety room might be okay even in this sort of system. But I think that is like the positive spin on what the overall defense could be collectively this year. Let's get to what is keeping us up at night. What is keeping you up at night, Dave, about the 2025 Chicago Bears.
- [116:23]
David
I just hope for all of the good work that they have done and I love the moves all over the interior of the offensive line. It's actually, it's the inverse of what we've talked about with some of these other teams. I spend a lot of time wondering if their plan at left tackle is going to completely sink all of these other moves. The two, the Tuni trade, Dalman, Jonah Jackson and obviously you drafted Darnell right high. And then you look over and I mean Braxton Jones has, has played decently enough considering some of the situations that he's been in over the course of his career, but it hasn't looked amazing this preseason. You obviously drafted Ozzy Trapillo this year. Doesn't sound like he's going to win that job. Although as of recording I don't think it's been settled. And then I mean like go down the list. Kieran A Maggie G Theo been a debt who like joined this competition within the last like yeah, 10 days.
- [117:20]
Robert Mays
I don't that that's not real I think is what I the first thing that I want to say about this. A Medici has been banged up and I think they have transitioned to a point in camp where because Tripillo is going to be their swing tackle, they needed to start playing him at right tackle in order to start getting him reps there. I don't think under any circumstances is Theo Bennett Bennett a day a part of the left tackle competition for the Chicago Bears.
- [117:46]
David
That makes me feel a little bit better. But it doesn't change the fact that for all of the resources that have been spent everywhere else and look, I get it, you can't have a first round pick at every position on the offensive line, not in a not if you're paying attention to the rest of your roster anyway. But left tackle just looks like it could be a blinking red light and I don't really love that. Robert and maybe, maybe I'm being influenced by just, just having moved to Chicago because every time I turn on the radio or I watch the post game on the preseason games, this is what we're talking about. Like, it feels like there is a lot of concern about left tackle and I totally understand it.
- [118:27]
Robert Mays
I think it's overstated personally, because I think this is about how healthy Braxton Jones is. Braxton Jones has come along slowly because he's coming off of a major injury and I think still isn't 100% there for physically. If he gets to a place by the time the season kicks off where he's at like 90, 95% and you can get something out of Braxton Jones that is like what you've gotten out of him over the last couple years, I think that gives you a reasonable floor at left tackle. If you are in a spot where Braxton Jones is your fifth best offensive lineman, you're okay. He's been fine over the last couple years. This is a question of whether or not he will be healthy enough to be something like the player that we've seen over the last couple couple years. If that is the case and all the other offensive line moves work. If those guys are hits with Dalman, Jackson and Joe Tuney I am not concerned about Braxton Jones. If he is the 2023, 2024 version of Braxton Jones, I'm not.
- [119:20]
David
My only pushback on that would be he's healthy enough to play in the preseason, he's healthy enough to be on the field and if he's not all the way right, I totally get that. But healthy enough to be on the field and not looking great in exhibition for play, I at least understand why people are are a little skeevy looking at it.
- [119:40]
Robert Mays
I do not think he is 100% physical yet is what I it feels.
- [119:43]
Derek
Like testing the waters to see if, if he can go and you know.
- [119:46]
Robert Mays
I think it's working his way back. I, I think he will be the left tackle and, and I think that the hope is he'll be something close to what he's been over the last couple years by the time the season gets started.
- [119:55]
Derek
I will say, I think in terms of like if he's your fifth best offensive lineman, I do think that's a good spot to be in. I will say like perspective. If he's their fifth best offensive lineman now, we will be mad at him more than we were the last couple of years.
- [120:06]
Robert Mays
That's true. That's absolutely true. What's keeping me up in my head about the Bears is very specific, but at the same time not specific at all. And it is that turn down and sack that Caleb Williams took in that second preseason game. I'm sure most people have not seen it, but there was a play I believe on the first drive of that game or the second drive, I can't remember where he has Cole K coming open on like a little wrap in breaker with a linebacker being tied down. But I think it was Zakus in front of him.
- [120:35]
Derek
This is against the Chiefs, right?
- [120:37]
Robert Mays
It's against the Chiefs and he turns it down and takes a sec and panics a little bit in the pocket. And I contrast that with how he looked in the first preseason game where I thought he played on time. I thought he showed a lot of command at the line of scrimmage. I was very encouraged by all of that and I was very discouraged, discouraged by this moment and a couple others from that preseason game against the Chiefs. And this brings me to just what I'm worried about in general. I think that this offense will give him a shot. I wonder if the processing on time aspects of playing quarterback, if he will get there because this is an offense that will give him a chance. If he can close that gap a little bit. I Just still have doubts about whether he. He can. Based on how last season went. Going back and watching the highlights from last year, the talent is undeniable. The elasticity in the arm, even just like the way the mechanics of how he plays quarterback, the footwork in the pocket, the base that he plays with, like, there's so many things that he does well. I just wonder in those moments where we're asking him to read something out on time and to pull the trigger into tight windows, can he do that stuff? And I think I'm not writing it off yet, but this is what's keeping me up at night. And his inability to get there in that specific area in an offense that's going to give him a chance, that is what is keeping me up at night.
- [121:56]
Derek
Okay. So I know I'm going to sound like a ridiculous Caleb defender. I kind of have an alternate take on that play. I don't think it was that bad. I think what. So on the right side there have. They have like curl swing. So that's. That's where he's trying to open. It's second and three. He's just trying to get the ball out. And then on the left side is like a levels concept where you have the number three is running like the dig, wrap, whatever you want to call it. And then they've got two, five and ins coming behind it. I think because it's second and three, he opens to the right, immediately realizes it's man coverage, inside leverage on the curl. He's like, that's. I can't throw that. He comes back to the other side. I don't think he's looking at the dig. I think he's looking at the first fin. And so that to me is like, fine. Because then he's like, okay. He immediately checked, checks that off, and then he works to the number one and turns that down. I'm not. I think a great quarterback would see. He looks at the first five and in. He can maybe see the linebacker driving down on it and realize there'll be a window to commit over the middle. Like Matthew Stafford makes that throw because he. He's just good at that type of stuff. Caleb being a younger quarterback I think was like, I'm just going to stick to the progression and moves to number one, the outside. Finn. I'm more concerned that he didn't throw that. Like Rome is open on that and like, he should throw that. He's also. It's the last read in your progression. Like, throw, throw that.
- [123:09]
Robert Mays
That's. That is it's not the specific throw to commit. It is about the timing of that play overall and the decision making over the course of the timing of that play. And that's my concern here. Like, I think that we don't know if he's going to ever be able to get there in that specific element of his game. And the idea that if you're confident that he can, like, you have to tell yourself a story based on how last season went. And again, I think that he can eventually get there, but he is not there now. And that is what worries me the most about how this is. Is going to go.
- [123:38]
David
I'm watching it. I'm watching it as we are talking right now and to the point that we just had about left tackle. Really the whole offensive line, like the pocket is immaculate. Like there is.
- [123:47]
Derek
Yeah, he was protected. That was not the issue.
- [123:49]
David
There is no complaint here. And so I'll contradict myself a little bit and say even, even if left tackle is something I prefer would be better. Like, I'm like, we gotta draw the line somewhere between like, hey man, get, get the. Get the ball out. What are we doing here? Verse constantly complaining about whether or not the protection is good enough. I'm reasonably confident the protection combined with the guy that's designing the offense is going to give Caleb Williams a chance to deliver the ball if that is.
- [124:20]
Robert Mays
Willing to do it. Place where I land right here is that that stuff is good enough. That play. That's why it's not even just the exact details of the progression. Derek is that that play is an expression of what is available to him. Now the guys are, are open, the protection is good. Can you make the most of this? That's where I sit. Because all those other excuses that we had last year, they will be gone. They are going to be gone. And it is now up to him to actually take advantage of all of this stuff.
- [124:46]
Derek
And I think maybe to me, like perception wise, why maybe I'm a little bit more just willing to wait it out is that I, for me, it's not a he doesn't see it thing. Like, I think he gets how to play the game. I think what we saw especially last year and maybe this, this is some scar tissue that he's developed and really needs to get over. I think he's just kind of scared to make mistakes as a passer. Like, I think he sees the game well. I don't have issues of him like progressing, moving his feet to reads, any of that stuff. It's just sometimes he doesn't want to throw the ball into what is not like a great look and like that, that him not throwing to the number one there at Roman dun. It's like, okay, the corner is kind of still draped over him like whatever. But it's like it's the final read in your progress progression. You're going to get hit if you don't throw this ball. You got to just Trust that your 6 2x receiver is going to catch the ball. And so that stuff I do think he needs to work through.
- [125:36]
Robert Mays
Let's get to what we're watching in the first month of the season for the Chicago Bears. Dave, what do you got?
- [125:42]
David
I'm so intrigued by the Bears 12 personnel and that goes like that goes with the territory. When you draft a tight end in the top 10. Obviously Cole comets already there. He's not a superstar tight end, but he's a top 10 highest paid tight end in football. I think his, his contract's like 8th or 9th, something like that. So two big time investments that you have on offense, I assume they're going to be on the field a fair amount. Obviously Colson Loveland has looked really fun in the, in the stuff I've seen in the preseason. He just looks like a sure handed receiver. He looks like a guy that's going to be able to help you in a lot of ways. And then you tie that to the Ben Johnson of it all, which is that the, The Lions used 12 personnel on 32% of their offensive snaps last year. That third most in the NFL. They love this shit. And by the way, the Lions didn't have two receiver options at tight end the way that the Bears do. So that's another fun wrinkle here where, you know, last year we were so focused on the three receivers in Chicago and this year I'm like, man, how much time are three receivers even going to be on the field for the Bears? Because I feel like Comet and Loveland are going to be out there all the time.
- [126:50]
Robert Mays
I love that you mentioned the two passing threats because this is at the crux of the conversation here. Most teams, this idea of the advantages 12 personnel gives you, their theoretical advantages that never become a reality. You're either in a disadvantage when you have those two guys out there because if one of them is working from the slot or just in any sort of scenario, he is not a matchup advantage against the players that he's playing against. A slot receiver would be better in that space situation. You can make a reasonable argument that Colston Loveland Might be a matchup advantage in a lot of the places that you're going to put him. And I think that's the difference between him and commit and how they see them. They think that Loveland is truly somebody you do not have to scheme stuff up for. And we've seen this. They have him as the number one in these one by threes and he will continue to do that sort of stuff. Comet, you do have to scheme some stuff up for him, but when it's only one guy, then you're putting yourself in an advantage. You combine that with the fact that. Fact that a lot of these teams that are playing in 12 personnel, a lot the Bill, the Bills come to mind. These tight ends are zeros as blockers. Case here. And so Loveland, I think will gain. Will be better in. In line as a blocker as he gets a little bit stronger. But the length that he has, he could do that at Michigan. And so this idea of, well, if they play nickel to our 12 personnel, which most defenses do now, most teams want to believe when that happens, we can grind you down in the race run game. But then you actually see them try to do it and it's not available to them. I think the Bears are the team based on who those two guys are, that because they're capable blockers, both of them, you can grind teams down if they try to play nickel against you. So all of these things that teams try to tell themselves are benefits of playing 12 personnel that never actually come to fruition. I think the Bears are built in a way where it actually could come to fruition for them.
- [128:32]
Derek
I so love that you mentioned the blocking because like when they, when the Bills drafted Kincaid, I was like, he's a cool receiver, receiver. But this is 11 and a half personnel. Like, this is not a 12. This is not a tight end in the way that we're thinking of it. It's why last year their big pivot was, all right, we're going to put a six offensive lineman on the field because when they needed an extra body, it's like, that's exactly. We're just going to throw another tackle out there. Like these other guys are not.
- [128:52]
Robert Mays
More teams are doing that where in order to get that extra tight end surface, they're putting another offensive lineman out there because the tight ends can't do it. I think if the Bears are in these like Y wing looks with both tight ends out there, you can create surfaces with multiple blockers that are actually actual blockers.
- [129:05]
Derek
Yeah, it's like it has me very enticed. Like I like of the two tight ends that came out in this class, like if you wanted the flashy, just like do cool stuff with the ball in their hands like Tyler Warren made a lot of sense. If you just wanted the like pivot tight end where we can do anything in the offense with him and build it around him. That was Loveland and giving that to Ben Johnson is pretty cool.
- [129:24]
David
From the time the Patriots broke onto the scene and made 12 personnel really cool. I think every team team in the league has experimented with this and been like we're going to be a matchup nightmare. And it's, it's way easier said than done and I'm not willing to say the Bears can do it but I'm. Well a, I'm curious and B, I'm optimistic that it can go better than it has for a lot of other teams.
- [129:48]
Robert Mays
My answer to this, what I'm watching was just the skill position deployment in general. So the tight ends are a huge part of this. How does the running back room shake out? Like it feels like Manangai is going to get a real chance chance to be like their innings eating running back within this offense where they don't want to give that role to DeAndre Swift necessarily. And I think there's some concerns about what Roshan Johnson can be. So how the running back rotation shakes out there, is there somebody that pops loose, that's cut, that's involved in that mix and then the receivers, it's like again I think that they have a vision for how these guys are supposed to be used and I think how quickly Luther Burden gets to be involved here, what, how he gets involved, what the split looks like with him and Zakus. Like we talked about this last year with the skill position talent they had on paper and none of it mattered because when you're using guys in the wrong spots, you're going to get 70% of all of them. I think that at least within this offense we'll get something closer to 95% of all of them. We'll just have to see what the actual roles are when the games actually start. Let's get to what is success for the 2025 Chicago Bears. I'll just do this.
- [130:51]
Derek
Yeah, go ahead.
- [130:52]
Robert Mays
It's very go for it finishes a top half of the league offense, very modest goals, top half of the league offense and by the end of the year you feel very good about your play caller and quarterback pairing for the first time this century.
- [131:07]
Derek
That's it.
- [131:08]
Robert Mays
If that's 8 and 9, fine. If that's 11 and 6, fine. That stuff is less important to me. I think those are the benchmarks for me in terms of what the success would mean for the Bears Bears this year.
- [131:19]
Derek
I think if we just go ahead feeling like Ben Johnson fixed Caleb Johnson or Caleb Williams in the way that we wanted to, like, that's it. Like it again, it. How you get there doesn't really matter.
- [131:30]
David
Robert, you might actually know this. Do you know how many times since the year 2000 or no, excuse me, I went back to realignment in oh, two. Since realignment, do you know how many times the Bears have been a top half of the league scoring offense?
- [131:43]
Robert Mays
24. 13. Oh, well, scoring offense is hard. Scoring offense. 2012 they probably were because of all the turnovers that year and they were put in a good, like just decent field position.
- [131:55]
David
If, if I was unclear. Just offensive points.
- [131:58]
Robert Mays
Like so 2013. Right. That was the Josh McCown year.
- [132:03]
David
2013.
- [132:04]
Robert Mays
2013, 2018. They were a top half of the league scoring offense. With all the nonsense. Those might be the only two years.
- [132:12]
David
They did manage it in 06. Even if you take out.
- [132:15]
Robert Mays
That's right. Yes.
- [132:16]
David
Even if you take out how good the defense was, that's the three. Three times. So in 23 years, it's.
- [132:22]
Robert Mays
We don't need to do the whole Bears offensive history again. But that is it for me. And I will say last thing here. I think that the relationship between Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams, I'm fascinated by it because I think that Ben Johnson has pushed him extremely hard and I think that he has explicitly, Caleb Williams said I want this. And the word that somebody said to me when they were describing that relationship when I was in Lake Forest a couple weeks ago, it was just. Yeah, it's intense. Like, it is intense. He. There is a real like, I'm going to push you here and I'm going to see what you can handle element to this relationship and we'll see how it works out. But this is one more story thing that as I'm trying to build the case for, okay, if this fails, I at least support how we got here. That's another example. If this fails, I at least support what they're trying to do here to actually make this work in a way that it has never worked before.
- [133:22]
David
I think you. You nailed it. I don't think a whole lot needs to be added. I'm just. I want to throw in one caveat that I don't think you're going to like. If that comes to pass. Like if, if Caleb looks promising and the offense is top half of the league and all of that stuff happens, they'll be playing relevant football games in December like they will be. It might not be like to win the division or anything, but they will be playing games that matter toward the playoff picture in December, which I'm sure sounds terrifying but also would be an incredible.
- [133:55]
Robert Mays
I would absolutely love to watch meaningful December football football games. Right now all I know is I'm going to take my wife to that first Monday night game. It's going to be her first NFL game she's ever attended. I'm going to be apologizing to her in the second half as Brian Flores dismantles that first game. And I will say that I'm joking. I think it will look uneven for the first month to six weeks of the season. I think this will be a process. If it looks ugly for the first half of the year, it would not surprise me. I think let's reserve some judgment about this until we get a little bit more time with this group to play together. I don't think the I don't think it'll be written in stone by Halloween what the Ben Johnson Caleb Williams experiment looks like. That's the last thing I will say.
- [134:36]
David
If The Bears hang 40 in that game. We got to do an emergency pod like we'll wait till you get it from the Soldier Field.
- [134:42]
Robert Mays
I'll just be call. I'll call you guys. I'll call you guys on the walk from Soldier Field back to where I parked my car on Michigan. All right guys, that is all we've got. Thank you for sticking around. This was always going to be a long one based on this debate division and just all the all the caveats that come with this division. We will be back tomorrow with the AFC West. Appreciate you guys listening. We'll talk to you soon. Big news. Boost Mobile is now sending experts nationwide to deliver and set up customers new phones at home or work.
- [135:22]
David
Wait, we're going on tour?
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Robert Mays
Not a tour. We're delivering and setting up customers phones so it's easier to upgrade.
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Robert Mays
No, not a tour bus. It's a regular car we use to deliver and set up customers phones at home or work. Are you a groupie on this tour?
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Derek
We deliver and set up phones.
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Robert Mays
It's not a tour.
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David
Oh you're definitely a groupie.
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Robert Mays
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Derek
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Robert Mays
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David
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