The Athletic Football Show: 2025 NFC South Preview

Date: August 22, 2025
Host: Robert Mays
Co-Hosts: Derrik Klassen, Dave Helman

Overview

This episode of The Athletic Football Show dives deep into the 2025 NFC South, previewing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, and New Orleans Saints. Host Robert Mays is joined by Derrik Klassen and Dave Helman to break down the key stories, position battles, roster construction, and provide honest, often spirited, evaluations of each team. Throughout, they highlight both the reasons for optimism and the lurking concerns in what’s often (unfairly) considered one of the NFL’s most overlooked divisions.

Table of Contents

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (04:11–33:16)

   • Offseason Recap & Notable Moves
   • Key Players & Position Battles
   • Offensive Ceiling & Points of Skepticism
   • What Could Go Wrong?
   • Measuring Success

2. Atlanta Falcons (37:13–66:21)

   • Offseason Recap & Notable Moves
   • Michael Penix Jr. Era
   • Defensive Investments at Edge
   • Roster Fragility & Team-Building Process
   • Success Benchmarks

3. Carolina Panthers (66:21–97:07)

   • Offseason Recap & Notable Moves
   • Bryce Young Year Two Optimism
   • Ted McMillan & Young Pass Catchers
   • Defensive Rebuild
   • What Success Looks Like

4. New Orleans Saints (97:44–122:21)

   • Offseason Recap & Notable Moves
   • State of the Roster
   • Secondary and Defensive Outlook
   • The Quarterback Dilemma
   • Direction and Success Metrics

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Offseason Recap & Notable Moves (04:11)

• Josh Grizzard promoted to Offensive Coordinator
• Kevin Carberry (OL coach) now also Run Game Coordinator
• Retained Chris Godwin, Levante David; brought in Haason Reddick
• Drafted Emeka Egbuka (WR), Benjamin Morrison and Jacob Parish (CBs)
• Lost Robert Hainsey and Joe Tryon-Shoyinka in FA
• Edge pick David Walker out for season

"This might be one of the best four or five offensive lines in the league with a quarterback that even if he's an imperfect player, he's fun as shit to watch." – Robert Mays (09:33)

Most Intriguing Aspect: Loaded Offense & Egbuka’s Arrival (05:08)

• Grizzard a steady, internal OC hire—continuity from last season’s dynamic offense.
• Egbuka: Seen as a “ready-made” NFL receiver, with high floor and the ability to step up if Godwin misses time. Repeated comps to Chris Godwin in style, reliability and football IQ.

"If any wide receiver just comes in as a rookie and has like 900 very solid yards, it's going to be Emeka Egbuka and I'm very excited to see how that unfolds for him this year." – Derrik Klassen (05:30)

• Offensive design praised for maximizing efficiency and playmaker talent—even as their “air yards to the sticks” was lowest in NFL, OC Liam Coen created tons of easy throws and YAC.
• Team thrived in high-leverage, volatile areas: elite 3rd-down conversion and Baker Mayfield’s playmaking under pressure and on scrambles.

Points of Skepticism & Swing Factors

• Injuries: Preseason injuries to Tristan Wirfs, Chris Godwin, and Jalen McMillan threaten continuity.

  "I was ready to say that I thought the Bucs were a slam dunk Super Bowl contender...And then Tristan Wurfs needs a knee scope and Chris Godwin, we know isn’t going to be back until October." – Dave Helman (10:31)

• Haason Reddick’s Impact/Pass Rush (12:28)

  • Reddick, now 31, did not play much last year—how much does he have left?
  • Loss of rookie Walker, thin at edge otherwise; Todd Bowles must rely on heavy blitzing to generate rush—extremely high blitz rate last year without the payoff.
  • If pass-rush falters, can interior stars (Kancey) compensate?

  "If they can just be 10% better than they were last year and Hassan Reddick gives you anything, that at least gets this defense closer to average instead of getting bludgeoned on every single passing down." – Derrik Klassen (24:09)

• Back to Earth? Volatility in High-Leverage Outcomes (16:57–20:43)

  • Offense thrived on 3rd downs and under pressure—tend not to be sustainable year-to-year unless you have an elite QB.
  • Baker’s play was exceptional; skepticism that he can repeat his “heater at the craps table” season.

  "One of my lingering doubts is that they just went on like a heater at the craps table for six straight hours last year. Like that's what it feels like." – Robert Mays (19:50)

Roster Weak Spots & Secondary Dynamics

• Depth at linebacker behind Levante David (now 35) is highly questionable.
• Secondary: rookies Jacob Parish (nickel) and Benjamin Morrison could reshape the unit if they hit, but a lot rides on their rapid development and Winfield Jr. staying healthy.

Offensive Play-Calling Transition

• New OC Grizzard brings “Miami Dolphins/McDaniel DNA”; stayed after year on staff, well-networked.
• Uncertainty over whether the offense falls to 8th or 14th-best in NFL; can’t expect last year’s top-5 output.

  "Just like little things, like Grizzard is figuring out whether he still wants to call plays from the sideline or booth—that’s something they're still working through. That doesn't mean anything...but it's just something to keep in mind when you've never done this before." – Robert Mays (30:14)

Defining Success for the Bucs (30:52)

• Dave: Win division, return to playoffs, must go beyond “won-and-done” wild card and look competitive at the divisional round.
• Derrik: Stay ahead of rising Falcons
• Robert: Improvement — want to see Bucs win a playoff game against a legitimate contender, become a no-doubt perennial conference championship contender.

"Show us that you can win a playoff game against a team that is not collapsing in real time and that with one more year from the young defensive players ... are they a team we talk about as an automatic Super Bowl contender?" – Robert Mays (32:08)

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Atlanta Falcons

Offseason Recap & Notable Moves (37:13)

• Jeff Ulbrich (Jets) brought in as Defensive Coordinator
• Extended Jake Matthews, signed Leonard Floyd (EDGE)
• Significant draft investment: Jalen Walker and James Pierce (EDGE, 1st round, traded 2026 1st), Xavier Watts (S), Billy Bowman (DB)

The Michael Penix Jr. Revolution (38:10)

• All-in on hyper-aggressive downfield passing with Penix, who quickly gave Falcons fans hope in his 3 starts.
• Massive target share for Drake London (39% final 3 games)—comparable to Puka Nacua’s usage as a rookie.
• Penix’s elite “big-time throw rate” (would have led NFL) and extraordinary poise/processing described repeatedly by Falcons’ staff—team sees him as “Matthew Stafford-like.”

  "When you talk to people in the Falcons building...they are true believers. Like in their minds this is a special guy who is going to be a special player." – Robert Mays (41:16)

• Valid skepticism around small sample size and low-quality opposing defenses (Derrik’s note at 41:00).

Roster Additions, Defensive Rebuild & Edge Bets

• Edge Rush Overload: Falcons spent huge capital to land two first-round pass rushers in Walker and Pierce. Panel questions process:

  • Was giving up a 2026 1st for Pierce justifiable?
  • Jalen Walker projected for a limited early role due to transition, injuries in camp.
  • Group could blossom, or be massive bust if neither rookie hits.

  "If you're right about Jalen Walker, if you're right about James Pierce Jr... you can really supercharge this thing." – Dave Helman (46:00)

Offensive Fragility & Short-Sighted Team Building

• Offense is thin behind its impressive first unit:

  • No new offensive adds, all resources to defense (e.g. adding no 4th WR despite 86% 11-personnel use).
  • Darnell Mooney hurt, Caleb McGary (RT) injured, swing tackle lost.
  • Threatens team’s ability to sustain offense if injuries strike; Penix is a pocket passer who needs clean protection.

  "The fact that they built in no redundancies for the offense because they were devoting so many resources to the defense puts you in a spot... if one of those receivers gets hurt and your offensive line that's shockingly healthy last year now isn’t, you start to chip away at the best version of this offense very, very quickly." – Robert Mays (53:07)

Defense & Secondary Redesign

• Secondary drafted for immediate help: S Xavier Watts, Billy Bowman (nickel)—but team needs C+ level rookie play immediately.
• Coordinated by Ulbrich: panel expects more aggressive man-coverage; blend of 3-4/4-3 defensive fronts to fit mixed personnel.

  "AJ Terrell taking to more man coverage—that's going to be fine. He's really good... It's the front to me; we have no idea if guys like Ruke Ororo or Brandon Dorlis are anything yet." – Derrik Klassen (61:14)

Falcons' Success Metrics (62:45)

• Dave & Derrik: Playoffs are the clear benchmark for progress; wild-card berth acceptable due to strange organizational timeline (second-year QB, but must-win mode because of prior spending/trades).

  "I just, there's too many other good parts, good skill players on this team... you kind of have to get 10 wins and in." – Derrik Klassen (63:54)

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Carolina Panthers

Offseason Recap & Notable Moves (66:21)

• Extended JC Horn (CB), Chuba Hubbard (RB), Tommy Tremble (TE), Andy Dalton (QB2)
• S Trevon Moehrig in FA (3yrs/$51M)
• Major defensive additions: Deshawn Wharton, Bobby Brown, Patrick Jones (DL)
• Drafted Tetairoa McMillan (WR, 8th overall), Nick Scourton & Princely Umanmielen (Edge)
• Lost Xavier Woods (S), broke-in new contributors at TE, RB.

Bryce Young "Year 2" Hype (67:32)

• Panel (especially Dave) roots for Young; his college processing ("saw an extra dimension… like Chris Paul" – Dave, 68:02) made him a conviction #1 pick for many.

• After horrendous rookie year and flashes of progress in '24, debate rages: Can Young, despite his stature and limited arm, elevate aggressively and with anticipation like a rich man's Brock Purdy?

  "If you play with anticipation and aggressiveness, I'm in... That is stylistically what I want in a quarterback." – Robert Mays (69:37) "There's never been a top 12 quarterback that looks like this, and that's where I struggle with." – Derrik Klassen (72:23)

• Panel agrees Young’s environment and play design are much improved; Brock Purdy comparison divides, with Derrik skeptical Young ever rises above "QB18 type" without freaky supporting cast.

Tetairoa McMillan: The True X WR Arrives (75:24)

• McMillan instantly changes WR room: 6'4", basketball-style outside WR, consistently looks NFL-ready in preseason.

• JC Horn gave him “baptism by fire” in camp—helped McMillan acclimate to NFL physicality.

• Finally gives Young a true X, freeing up Leggett as move/vertical threat.

  "He plays very grounded for a tall receiver and that leads to some of the smoothness... He is going to really change the complexion of this offense." – Robert Mays (78:25)

Defensive Rebuild

• Run Defense and Pass Rush Catastrophe in ‘24:
  "We're talking about historic stuff here. They were the first defense in the next gen era since 2016 to allow a 50% rushing success rate." – Robert Mays (79:14)
• Massive reinforcements on DL; two edges with complementary styles, all on second contracts (fits timeline process).
• Secondary: deep investment, but jury is out beyond JC Horn; panel bullish on athletic rookie S Lathan Ransom, questions at CB2.
• Off-ball linebacker unit possibly among league’s worst (Derrik: “hard pressed to be above 30th”).

Offense: Next Steps in Scheme and Innovation

• Run game to diversify beyond mid-zone, leveraging Damian Lewis and Robert Hunt’s mobility.

• Panthers increased spread/empty usage in Young's comfort zone late in '24 — big jump in EPA in those sets.

  "They were in spread looks 30% of the time in the back half... seventh in EPA out of empty — how they marry that spread out world with some of the condensed run world that they want to use, it's not easy to do... but as these guys get into year two, can you add those layers?" – Robert Mays (91:57)

• Young receiving more autonomy at the line in year two.

What Does Success Look Like? (95:25)

• Dave: Cement Bryce Young as “your guy”; picking outside the top 10 for the first time since 2019 would be “real progress.”

• Robert: Be fun on offense, not embarrassing on defense; on the “in the hunt” graphic in December/January.

  "Be a team that I have fun watching every single week offensively, don't be embarrassing defensively. And by the end of the season, are you on the in-the-hunt graphic in week 17? That to me, is success for this team." – Robert Mays (96:14)

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New Orleans Saints

Offseason Recap & Notable Moves (97:44)

• Sweeping staff changes:
  • Kellen Moore (HC), Doug Nussmeier (OC), Brandon Staley (DC)
• Key adds: Justin Reid & Julian Blackmon (S), Chase Young (edge), Devon Godchaux (DT), Brandon Cooks and Devaughn Vele (WR)
• Drafted OT Kelvin Banks (1st), QB Tyler Shough (2nd), DT Vernon Broughton, S Jonas Sanker, LB Danny Stutzman (mid-rounds)

Encouraging Talent Around the QB (99:27)

• Young OL with upside if first-rounder Banks and last year’s Fuaga click (Penning kicked to G).
• WR duo (Olave + Shahid) and RB Kamara can be dynamic.

  "The supporting cast, from a talent perspective on this Saints core offense, it's going to be watchable if things break right." – Robert Mays (100:21)

Points of Caution and Skepticism

• O-Line is untested: Banks a rookie, Fuaga only in year two and swapping sides, Penning a failed T moved to G—talent is theoretical, not proven.
• QB Room is bleak:
  • "This is a team where, unless you feel good about Tyler Shough being your 2026 quarterback... you cannot be trading away picks you’ll probably need to draft one." – Robert Mays (107:01)
  • Rattler offers flashes but holds the ball, takes too many sacks (Caleb Williams-type issues without the talent). Shough looks overwhelmed in preseason.

Defense: Major Changes & Swing Points

• Overhaul in secondary:

  • Starters: Justin Reid (physicality) + Julian Blackmon (versatility) at S; Koolaid McKinstry (2nd year CB), Isaac Yiadom, Alontae Taylor (up and down at nickel)

• New DC Staley has never coordinated without "cheat codes" (stars); now must adapt system to solid-but-flawed personnel.

  "The Staley thing really fascinates me more because obviously what he did in LA [Rams] was insanely cool, but also he was cheating. You have Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey..." – Derrik Klassen (117:37)

Roster, Process, & Pick Management Woes

• Saints’ old habits die hard: traded 4th for Devaughn Vele (WR) despite possible top-pick needs.

  "Any team potentially in the QB draft market... cannot be trading away picks." – Robert Mays (107:01)

• Still a handful of respected “Sean Payton holdovers” (Camara, Eric McCoy, Cam Jordan, Demario Davis), but youth movement coming.

What Does Success Look Like? (118:25)

• Panel consensus: Saints should aim to bottom out, secure a high pick and a clear direction at HC/DC/OL.

  • “2024 Titans blueprint”: defense and infrastructure take shape, but lose enough to secure an elite QB.

• Must avoid mid-table mediocrity—winning 8 games with no QB of the future is a disaster unless Shough shocks as a true answer.

  "They shouldn't win 8 games. No one that roots for the Saints should be rooting for them to win 8 games…The only path that's okay is if Tyler Shough is on his way to being like a top-12 quarterback as part of that calculus." – Robert Mays (119:51)

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• Bucs — Egbuka’s Rookie Outlook:
  "Igbuka is the same way...you can move him around a little bit inside and outside, just incredibly tough and reliable." – Klassen (06:39)
• Falcons — Penix hype:
  "They are true believers. ...in their minds this is a special guy who is going to be a special player." – Mays (41:16)
• Panthers — Bryce Young’s Aggressiveness:
  "Even if Michael Penix has four times the arm that Bryce Young does, both of those guys play with anticipation and aggressiveness." – Mays (69:37)
• Saints — QB Room Anxiety:
  "Spencer Rattler ... his issue is that the ball does not come out often enough. He has a lot of the same issues that Caleb Williams has, but he’s not nearly as talented." – Klassen (110:30)
• Saints — Pick Management:
  "Any team that is potentially going to be in the quarterback draft market...cannot be trading away picks you’ll probably need to give..." – Mays (107:01)

Final Thoughts

• The NFC South is full of intrigue and uncertainty; each team is experiencing a different phase of the competitive cycle.
• Bucs look for continued offensive fireworks but must battle injuries and avoid regression.
• Falcons are banking on Michael Penix Jr. and a brand-new group of pass rushers but are risky-thin on both sides of the ball.
• Panthers simply need to develop Bryce Young and their young core, maintaining progress regardless of record.
• Saints must define a new era under Kellen Moore—success depends on either finding a surprise answer at QB or bottoming out for an elite prospect.

Next up: AFC South preview on Monday.

For more in-depth NFL and draft coverage, check out The Athletic Football Show and Building the Beast with Dave Helman and Dane Brugler.