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- [00:00]
Dave
Dreaming of getting the all new iPhone 17 Pro designed to be the most powerful iPhone ever.
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Derek
Then stay in bed and let a Boost Mobile expert deliver and set it up for you.
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Oh actually they will have to get up and open the door.
- [00:11]
Robert Mays
Oh right.
- [00:12]
Dave
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- [00:46]
Dave
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- [01:22]
Robert Mays
Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays. Really fun show for you guys today. Started things off with a little Trent McDuffie news. Trent McDuffie heading to the Los Angeles Rams for just an astronomical amount of draft picks. Understand it for both teams though, makes sense for the Rams and where they are makes sense for the Chiefs. We dug into that at the top of the show and then me, Dave and Derek remembered some guys today we wanted to do some historical comps and by historical I mean I don't know. Most of them are over the last four or five years. But I think it's a fun way to view free agency. Just trying to think about players in this class and talk about the archetypes they compare to from free agency groups before this. So this can be a good thing where this is the optimistic case for what this guy can look like. This can be a bad thing. As we'll get into today, the history of free agency is littered with a lot of guys getting a ton of money and it not working out so today it's historical comps for the 2026 free agent class. Let's get into it right now. I'm very excited about today's show because guess what, Dave, this is going to give us a chance today to remember some guys. And that's all I ever really want in any podcast we ever do is just to spend an hour remembering some guys.
- [02:39]
Dave
Isn't that why you get into podcasting? Isn't that why you get into liking football? Like that's, that's the meat of the whole thing. It's like ah, 2011. Darren Sprols. What a guy.
- [02:49]
Robert Mays
That's what we're going to do in part today. We wanted to look at this year's free agent class and try to find some historical comps just in terms of archetype, like guys that play, maybe play the same position and slotted in a similar spot in the hierarchy of their position as we were hitting free agency. I think some of these examples will be positive examples. Some of these will be the way that this could work out. I know that at least some of mine are potentially dangerous examples where this could not work out. Derek, we, we joked yesterday, who was the player yesterday that you couldn't. That there's no way that you remembered him.
- [03:26]
Derek
Oh man, I don't know. Now see now.
- [03:28]
Dave
Michael Turner.
- [03:29]
Robert Mays
That's right.
- [03:30]
Derek
So yeah, come on.
- [03:31]
Robert Mays
So I assume that your historical comps may not go back as far as ours unless you were remembering, you know, the Michael Turner's of the world when you were in second grade like you claimed to be yesterday.
- [03:39]
Derek
I didn't go quite that far. I tried to limit my window to like, I think 2021 is my earliest signing that I have. Modern NFL here.
- [03:47]
Dave
I went into the Wayback machine a couple of times. But it's funny you say that because looking through this, A, I had a great time remembering some guys and some heinous free agency deals and B, once you go past like 2018, it starts to not even feel like the same sport. Like when you're talking about the amount of money being thrown.
- [04:07]
Robert Mays
Oh yeah, I did always go, I just very quickly on my phone, for example, one of the guys I'm going to talk about DeMarcus Ware in 2014. Right. So I just look at DeMarcus Ware's AV. I say 2014 NFL salary cap, do a little bit of division, find that percentage times 301 and that gives me my 2026 AV. That is the very complicated process that I go through.
- [04:30]
Dave
It's just so funny to see very good players getting contracts that are the totality of the contract is like a salary in 2026. It's silly how much the cap has jumped over the last 10, 15 years.
- [04:43]
Robert Mays
I mean it's doubled since like 2010. It's, it was 155 million in some of the looking and some of the things I was looking at a couple days ago, now it's 300 million. So we're going to dig into that today like yesterday. We're going to have to start this show and by have to, I mean I'm thrilled to start this show with some massive breaking news. Trent McDuffie on his way to the Los Angeles Rams in exchange for the 29th overall pick this year, a fifth round pick this year, a sixth round pick this year a and a 2027 third round pick. That is a ton to give up for the Rams. That being said, I understand it for them and I certainly understand it for the Chiefs.
- [05:23]
Dave
If I thought it was a steep price to pay, I felt better about it when I heard that other teams were trying to get in on this. The one, the team that you've heard linked is the New York Giants specifically. And so if you're fighting off other teams, you gotta sweeten the pot. And if you are, who, who better to sweeten the pot than the team that feels the very finite window of opportunity like the LA Rams where it's it could be 2026 or nothing. And who gives a shit about a 2027 third round pick if we're trying to get Stafford one more ring.
- [05:53]
Robert Mays
Derek, your initial thoughts on this Trent McDuffie heading to the Rams for that sort of hole?
- [05:58]
Derek
I think it's good for both teams actually and I know that it's a huge haul. But it's like this is the value of having the extra first round pick and having acquired that stuff is that you can kind of wield it this way where you can overspend a little bit. So to say to get a player like this, I will say I think my initial grade on it for the Rams is a little bit conditional on where they play him. Because in my mind I've said this a number of times before. Trent McDuffie is a significantly better player out of the slot. He's a solid to good starting outside corner. He is one of the best nickels in the league. And it gets complicated with the Rams a little bit because obviously they have Quinn Lake who has done really good in that role, but they all the Rams also have Cam Curl coming up into free agency this year. So I kind of think that there's a world where they move Lake back to safety to replace Cam Curl. They have their starting safety duo now and then they move McDuffie to the slot. I don't know if they want to do that, but to me, to get the best DBs on the field in their best spots, that's kind of the best way to do it in my opinion.
- [06:54]
Robert Mays
They also play as much dime as almost any team in the NFL. Right. So if they want to have almost like a Devin Witherspoon sort of role where he's inside, outside, I think that's a potential possibility. Is there a world where Cam Curl plays safety in some of their nickel and base looks and he moves to that second, you know, inside corner when they play some of those dime looks. I'm with you though, because he has been best at on the inside and camp or Quinn Lake, that's what where Clinton Lake played last year and they just gave him an extension. And so I assume he's going to play on the outside simply because of the contract that he's apparently getting. I mean if you look at the initial reports, it sounds like he's going to be getting a market setting deal at outside corner, which you almost have to when you trade this amount for a guy. And so my assumption is he plays a little bit of both, but I almost think he has to play outside considering what they gave up for him and what they're going to end up paying him.
- [07:46]
Derek
He probably does. But I'm just like if you're.
- [07:50]
Robert Mays
I'm with you. It's interesting and that's why I like the deal for kc. Like he, he is a good player. He is not a better corner than the guys making money at the top of the market right now. He was like an elite slot player. He is a good outside corner. And so if you're the Chiefs, you do this a hundred times out of 100. When you think about the haul that you just got back and also what you've done at that position specifically, like their ability to consist find playable guys because of what Spags does and what Dave Merritt has done. Their defensive backs coach, even if you think Trent McDuffie is a really good player, what you just got back for him, you have to make this trade. And if you're the Rams, I think that thought process is correct. The Rams right now have $181 million in 2027 salary cap space. And it's because this is it like you have. Devonte is going to be off the books that year. Stafford's going to be off the books. Like you are pushing it all in right now. And so in a vacu, the Chiefs win this thing going away. But I understand the thought process on how the Rams land here.
- [08:55]
Dave
And the crazy thing is the rams could give McDuffie his extension and extend verse and a bunch of other, a bunch of the other homegrown guys. They're going to at least have a chance to keep curl. I would guess. Like they have so much money they can do this and still with the huge exception of you have no long term stability at quarterback like you can hold on to anybody else you want to. I didn't obviously I didn't even mention Puka. He's going to be in line for a huge extension. With the amount of money that they have and the lack of long term investments that they have, like you can do all of that over the next year or two, which is really exciting. My one thing I wanted to say and I guess for where they are now because the decisions have been made, I think this is great for Kansas City at this moment. But does it, is it, does it sit weird with you at all that we're. That McDuffie is the guy getting shipped off and George Carloftis and Nick Bolton got major extensions like in a vacuum. Wouldn't you rather have the corner or am I like is hindsight too much? 2020, that's a good question.
- [09:57]
Robert Mays
I think the linebacker question is probably a good one. I, Derek shouldn't answer this because I know about his feelings about Nick Bolden, but I, for me, I think with Kansas City specifically and even just I'm kind of this way about corners in general right now. Like you have the guys at the top that are like the true kind of elite players. I don't think there's that many of them. I think those guys are probably worth paying. We've seen 12 steps down from there over the last three or four years. The market at this position get depressed compared to what it used to look like. And I'm just not sure McDuffie cracks like that top upper echelon of guys where you want to give, where you want to devote this amount of resources to him. This to me is about opportunity cost. If he was going to want $27 million a year, $25 million a year and you'd have to give him that plus a first and a third round pick over the last couple next couple years, that to me is like it's not even a conversation like what you could do with all of those resources if you're the Chiefs, considering what their ecosystem has looked like on defense and with that position, I just think you have to do it.
- [11:01]
Dave
And I do think you can get in trouble thinking this way because all it takes is miss on a draft pick and screw this whole thing up. But with their track record drafting and developing DBs, I understand if their confidence is sky high that they can find the next one.
- [11:15]
Robert Mays
Well, you get Jalen Watson back for half, right? Let's hypothetically, let's say you do something like that where you can say if McDuffie is going to make $30 million a year, can you get Watson back for 13 to $15 million a year? And now you have a first and a third round pick over the next two years to play with. Like, I just think that is the right line of thinking if you're the Chiefs in this scenario.
- [11:36]
Derek
And Dave, you can tell me if I'm wrong. I finally started digging into the corner class a little bit. It's a pretty good class for corners. And so if you're Kansas City and you kind of think you're resetting anyway and you don't want to pay top of the market for a Cornerback Like Trent McDu, now that you have two first round picks, maybe you feel a little bit better spending 9 on like a Mansoor Delaine or whoever you want to pick. Or maybe you want to wait a little bit back into the first round where it's like when you only had that one top 10 pick, maybe you didn't want to spend it on a quarter. Maybe you thought you had other needs. Maybe tackle whatever it is. Now I feel like they have flexibility in a good class to reset at a position that they've consistently drafted and developed pretty well.
- [12:11]
Dave
I would agree with that. I like, I like the cornerback options. I think if I were a Chiefs fan with everything we know about what they need, they're cutting Juwan Taylor. Obviously the offense has been lacking in juice for quite some time. I think it'd be a little annoyed to turn around and potentially use a top 10 pick on a cornerback the year that you have a top 10
- [12:32]
Robert Mays
pick, but now you don't have to. Well, wait, why now you can use the 29th overall pickup quarterback on a cornerback.
- [12:38]
Dave
In my mind I'm thinking like that's a position where I'm trying to get my bang for my buck. Like, I like my odds of addressing that problem at 9 more than 29 that's not to say you can't do it, though. That's a fair point.
- [12:48]
Robert Mays
I mean, it seems to me like based on everything that I've seen, like running back some of the receivers in the back half of the top 10 pass rusher, like you could do all of that at nine and then try to find a corner in the back half of the first round. Exactly. Place you to found Trent McDuffie.
- [13:02]
Dave
If Chris Johnson could hang out for me to pick 29 or at least close enough that I could trade up for him, that'd be pretty cool.
- [13:08]
Robert Mays
You're looking at it right now. I mean, McDuffie's already off the books right now as I'm looking at over the cap here. But even, you know, with him gone and then the cutting Jawan Taylor, they looking at like $26 million in space. I assume they'll be able to move a little bit more money around, like they'll be able to spend a little bit if they want to, and I'll be curious where they end up doing it. I'm sure we'll dig into that a lot over the next couple days.
- [13:26]
Dave
I do think considering again, like the money got spent. Bolton and Carloftis are under contract for where they are right now. I like this move, but if I could go back in time, I wonder how I would prioritize that.
- [13:38]
Robert Mays
All right, let's dig into these. There really was no direction that I gave you guys when it came to this. It was essentially just, let's look at the 20, 26 class. Let's at look, let's go back however many years you want to. Right, Derek? Most of mine are from the last five or so years, but there were also some where I was like, I will see if there's something maybe a little bit deeper into the, into league history that actually aligns here. So I have a couple of those. But Derek, why don't you kick us off? When you were looking at this group and you were trying to figure out, all right, who does this 2026 free agent remind me of in terms of archetype over the last several years, who came to mind for you?
- [14:11]
Derek
So I think I have a couple of ones that are like really easy and then a couple of weird ones. We'll get to the weirder ones later. I think one easy one parallel to draw and we actually already talked about this player yesterday. Drew Dahlman obviously got a huge deal last year to go and fix the Bears offensive line. And I think with the, with the Bills currently not bringing back Conor McGovern. He feels like the guy who is going to do that for some team going into this future, whether it's a team like the Raiders, who have a ton of cap space and really need to fix their offensive line quickly. The Titans, the Chargers like these teams that they really need somebody in the middle who can help the quarterback set all the protections and really have this cascade effect on the rest of the offensive line. And then we'll see some sort of jump with the offense. Connor McGovern feels like the guy to me. Like somebody's going to spend a lot of money and we're going to be like, man, that for a center. And then he plays at a really high level and changes that offense.
- [15:01]
Robert Mays
Yeah, I think it's the team that misses out on Linderbaum. Like, that's going to be the consolation prize potentially. And if. If that number and that money falls somewhere close to like, what Dalman got last year, would you be surprised at that? I wouldn't be.
- [15:14]
Derek
I don't think so. And honestly, the only reason I didn't pick Tyler Linderbaum for this, and maybe I'm just like, getting a little bit too far ahead of myself. I am working under the assumption, maybe a wrong assumption, that the Ravens find a way to get that done. Obviously they'll have to make a. A bunch of moves to kind of figure that out, but in my mind, McGovern is going to be like the best actual center, like, actually on the market.
- [15:34]
Dave
It's funny to think that McGovern's already done that before. Like, McGovern's a third contract player, which is kind of weird to think about. He's only 28 years old.
- [15:44]
Schwab Ad Speaker
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- [15:44]
Robert Mays
He's.
- [15:45]
Dave
He's entering his year 29 season, but the Bills bought relatively low on him coming off of his rookie contract, and he exceeded that. And I won't be surprised if he lives. I think his next deal will be bigger than what he was playing on in Buffalo, but I won't be surprised if he plays up to it.
- [16:00]
Robert Mays
So I had one that is kind of a, like one step off of there. I had a guy that could be 20, 23 Connor McGovern this year, somebody that is gets paid in free agency, maybe in a way that we didn't necessarily expect, but is a second contract. And this team had a good offensive line infrastructure. But I think that going to Buffalo, we got a better version of Connor McGuffin than we probably got in Dallas. Just because what Aaron Cromer was able to do with like anybody who walked into that building is just really exceptional. And so the guy I had for that where second contract player, if he goes into a better situation, is he going to look like, all right, that's starting guard money Dylan Parham in 2026 as 2023 Connor McGovern where he maybe makes a little bit more than you think. It was a terrible situation with the Raiders and if he goes to a decent spot and we look that contract and be like, all right, like that, that's what you pay for like a starting caliber guard. So I had the opposite side of the Conor McGovern conversation.
- [16:55]
Derek
I thought you were setting up something for your guy Cade Mays. There a guy who's like, I have
- [16:59]
Robert Mays
a different Cade main was the Cade May one is way more irresponsible than that.
- [17:03]
Dave
Any relation by the way?
- [17:04]
Robert Mays
No, no, no, no, no. No relation whatsoever. I have a Cade Mays one because I the one I found I was like, oh, this is. This is maybe a little aggressive, but I actually do like it.
- [17:15]
Dave
I'm going to stick with a guy that I already mentioned. We already mentioned talking about the Rams Chiefs trade. And it's more than just the name. I think Cam Curl reminds me of Cam Bynum last year, like, similar age. Obviously Cam, you know, Cam had a contract with the Rams again. He's not coming off of his rookie deal, but I think probably gets lost a little bit in the. The totality of the Rams defense. I mean they play so much dime, they have so many DBs. Obviously the front does what it does. I think it's hard to single out anybody. And I felt the same way about Cam Bynum when he left Minnesota. And I don't know if Cam Curl gets as big of a deal.
- [17:55]
Robert Mays
That's what I was going to say. Cam by him got paid.
- [17:58]
Dave
No, he got. He got a very nice deal. I don't know if Cam Curl reaches that level, but I do think Cam Curl will get a nice payday and leaving that ecosystem. I don't blame anybody for saying like, oh well, will this be repeatable? Will you be as good? Because I'll be honest, I was curious about that for Cam Bynum and I thought he was excellent for Indianapolis. The money amount might not be the same, but I do think Cam Curl will get a nice contract and I. And I think he can absolutely play up to that at his next stop.
- [18:28]
Robert Mays
We talked about this yesterday. I will be so curious where these numbers land for this safety group. Specifically because you look at it, CAM Bynum got $15 million a year.
- [18:38]
Dave
Last year he was one of the guys where even if you like him as a player, I was surprised by that dollar amount.
- [18:44]
Robert Mays
So you look at it from last year, I'm just running through the list right now, just at safety alone. In last year's free agent group, we had one, two, three, four guys make $13 million a year at safety. I wonder how many safeties we see crack $13 million a year total in this free agent group. Because we talked about it yesterday. It's not a top heavy group, but there's a lot of depth to it. And listen to building the beast today. There are a million safeties in this draft and a million safeties that did well in Indy. And so how much the top of that market gets depressed for the Brian Cooks of the world, all of that. I wonder how many bargain type contracts we see with the safety grouping free agency.
- [19:26]
Dave
I, I'm just guessing based on my experience watching this happen, I would guess there will be a small handful of guys and I, I think Cam Curl is one of those where teams are willing to pay you like, okay, you are good enough, you clear the bar that we will give you a pretty sizable contract. And then I think there's going to be a log jam of guys where it's like, ah, let's wait and see who we get in the draft or we're going to short you on the offer a little bit because we're confident that we can find somebody with one of our big picks.
- [19:56]
Robert Mays
If you had to pick one safety in this class, Derek, where I'm paying $50 million a year and I feel good about it, who would that be?
- [20:03]
Derek
I don't even know. I really don't like the safety classes free agency right now because like I, I know at the top, like Brian Cook is there. I'm not really interested in Brian Cook at the amount of money that he is probably going to command. Man. Who else is.
- [20:18]
Robert Mays
Kobe Bryant is up there. Jacqua. Jaquan Brisker, Cam curl.
- [20:22]
Derek
Like see, I love Cam curl, but like in, in my mind you're probably, yeah. Not paying him like actual top of the market money. I think the one that I could most foresee like outplaying the amount of money that he's going to get to me is Jalen Thompson of the Cardinals. And the reason being is that every now and then we get these players who, let's say like two years before they go into free agency, they are a pretty good player on a pretty good defense. And then that defense As a unit kind of starts to fall apart and we just forget that this guy is good. It feels a little bit like Jalen Thompson is going to fall into that mold and that he could kind of be like, not a bargain, like he'll command a decent amount of money, but outplay the three or four guys who were getting paid ahead of him.
- [21:03]
Robert Mays
I've always kind of liked Jalen Thompson. I would like to see him do well in a different spot. All right, what's your first one here, Derek? Your 2026 free agent that you think reminds you of somebody that has hit the market over the last few years.
- [21:15]
Derek
I'm going to stick a little bit with the DBs, and I'm going to go with one that was good and then bad very quickly. But I think that this could work for the team that it's going for, so I would. Jamel Dean, I think, is one of the more interesting corners in this group. He approaching 30, he has a pretty big injury history. And I think given all of that, given the way that corners age, all that stuff, maybe you only get one or two years maximum out of his, like, top, top end play. The Philadelphia Eagles did this with James Bradbury in 2022. And it immediately.
- [21:45]
Robert Mays
I was circling this one. I like this a lot.
- [21:47]
Derek
It immediately shot them into like, oh, this is a Super bowl caliber defense. And then obviously they fall just short of actually winning it. And then they pay Bradbury again right after that because he'd only signed a one year deal deal initially. And then he starts to fall off because of the age, obviously. And so I could totally see a team that is close on defense going and signing a guy like Jamel Dean and then, boom, pop. He's really, really good for them. You wonder what it starts to look like when he's 30, 31, 32 years old.
- [22:14]
Robert Mays
And the interesting one with Dean is. And with. With Bradbury, they. The Eagles signed him to that one year deal. And that one year deal was. He played fantastic on that one year deal. And then I think they were willing to let him go and they didn't. And it was a huge mistake. And so with guys at this exact age, there's that really tiny window where if it was that one year deal, it would have been a massive hit. And because they resigned him eventually, there was a little bit of buyer's remorse. So how does that fall with Jamel Dean? Right? Like, if you give him two years worth of guarantees, can he give you two good years?
- [22:46]
Dave
I actually have him on my list, so I Have to get this out of the way right here. It's hard to say if it's a 1 to 1. Obviously Dean's injury concerns could have a lot to do with his market. But I think you have to bring up Carlton Davis when you mentioned Jamal Dean because every single thing about their careers is the same. Are you, is, is, are people outside of the Tampa Bay fan base aware of this?
- [23:08]
Robert Mays
They were drafted the same year. Yeah, the.
- [23:10]
Dave
No, no, no. It goes so much deeper than that. They're both from Florida. They both started out going to Ohio State and both wound up at Auburn. They were both drafted on day two a year like in subsequent years.
- [23:24]
Robert Mays
Subsequent years, that's right.
- [23:25]
Dave
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, they started for the BUC Super Bowl. They both got second contracts in Tampa Bay. They both are free agents at the, at the age of 29, Davis, I mean Davis got traded to Detroit. So that's the one little difference. But the, the way these guys careers have followed the same arc is nothing short of eerie. So if somebody offers Jamel Dean 3 years, 54, 44, 54 million. Am I supposed to be surprised? Not based on the way this has all gone so far.
- [23:57]
Robert Mays
It's an interesting one. I mean like if he gets paid based on what he did last year, it would be a really hefty contract. If he gets paid with some of those injury questions in mind, obviously that's going to depress it a little bit. So we'll see where that ends up next week as things really get going. All right, we're going to take our first quick break and then come back and chat a little bit of news.
- [24:17]
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- [27:26]
Robert Mays
Breaking news across the timeline as we are sitting here recording Stefan Diggs released by the New England Patriots. He had an additional $6 million that was set to become fully Guaranteed on Friday or next Friday, I think might have been the third day of the league year. That would make sense. By releasing him, The Patriots save $16.8 million in cap space. Gets them to about 56 or so for the year. That's not effective cap space. Obviously, you're paying your Brett picks, everything else, let's call it 50 ballpark. So it's a decent chunk of change to be saved here. Derek, at the same time, he was a very useful and very important piece to the Patriots offense last year, and so you save a lot of money. You also have to replace his production if you're going to make a move like this.
- [28:13]
Derek
So they will have to replace him. But I actually, I think this is okay. You got out of the Stefan Diggs signing what you wanted, which was we need to microwave the offense, give Drake May a guy in his second season and see if we can get him on a good development curve. And I think especially for the first, like 12 weeks of the season, that really worked out and Diggs was playing at a high level. Their chemistry was really good. I do think, because as an older receiver coming off the injury, he did not scale into the season as well as he could have. Like, I think things started to wane a little bit as we got towards the end, into the playoffs, back half of the season, all that stuff. And so I think they got what they wanted out of the signing. It's definitely going to be hard to replace him because they don't really have that many other talented receivers currently on the roster, so it's going to take a lot to do that. But. But I think they got what they wanted out of the deal to get out of it, move on, go into whatever this next era is going to be. I, I think that's totally fine. I think this was a win kind of top to bottom for them.
- [29:07]
Dave
I, I'd go as far as to say it's pretty perfect. Like, you got exactly what you wanted and needed out of him. You're getting out at a good time. You're saving money by doing it. And, and I mean, I, I get your point, Derek, that. I mean, good receivers are hard to come by, but they already had cap space.
- [29:27]
Robert Mays
So what?
- [29:27]
Dave
They were at roughly 40 million in cap space. And you said they saved 16 million.
- [29:31]
Robert Mays
16.
- [29:32]
Dave
You have all the money you need to do whatever you want. I mean, it's very fun to think that this is them, like adding to the war chest for the Alec Pierce sweepstakes. But whoever it is, I mean, there are players you can find there are. I know we said yesterday that we don't love the receiver market, but I like any receiver that lands with Drake May a hell of a lot more automatically. And so like you'll have options at all price tiers available to you. You can draft a guy and again you have an MVP candidate who's like 23 years old. I think this is wonderful timing by the Patriots.
- [30:05]
Robert Mays
Derek, you can send Alec Pierce to Tennessee to play with Cam Ward or New England to pay with Drake to play with Drake May, where are you sending him?
- [30:14]
Derek
So I, I earnestly do think that Cam Ward like stylistically fits a little bit more. Just cause Cam Ward has, he did not lose any of the willingness to, like, I'm just going to throw this thing up and see what happens. So I do think that that might be a little bit more fun. But because the Patriots, we already have proof of concept that they're good and we can see that duo actually do something and win games. It's got to be tennis or it's got to be New England.
- [30:36]
Robert Mays
So Stefan Diggs had a 26 and a half million dollar cap hit that was the 11th highest among all receivers in the NFL for 2026. The list is a fascinating collection of players. Michael Pittman is fifth at 29 million, which is why there's a chance he's not on the Colts next year if they end up doing something with Alec Pierce. DJ Moore is sixth at 28 and a half million. Decent chance he's not on the Bears next year. George Pickens is ninth on the franchise tag. T. Higgins is 10th. Jamar Chase is 13th. Diggs and Calvin Ridley are the two players squeezed right between them.
- [31:12]
Dave
It's honestly, like I said at the top, like it's, it's so well done by the Patriots. Like when you buy in on Stefan Diggs, you're like, this is a player that comes with extra news cycles. He's coming off of an injury. He's on the older side of things. For a wide receiver, is this going to be worth it? And he did exactly what you wanted him to. And you're getting out. You're getting out. I mean, obviously you didn't win the super bowl, but he helped you achieve a level of success that was well beyond everybody's expectations. And now you can try to get younger and try to do this the way that you would prefer.
- [31:51]
Robert Mays
All right, who's up? You up?
- [31:53]
Dave
I can be. So actually, let's just do this now since we're talking about wide receivers, it's not a one to one comp. But. But it's not a player, period. I wanted to look and see more about the Alec Pierce situation and who this applies to because, well, like I get it, guys sign for silly money every single free agency. And like guys that come to mind off the top of my head, obviously Calvin Ridley signed a really big deal a couple years ago. Christian Kirk was another one that caught a lot of people by surprise. But even those deals, they're not that close to what I think Alec Pierce might do.
- [32:29]
Robert Mays
The history of receivers at free agency is weird.
- [32:32]
Dave
It is weird. That's what I found out last night. And I also had a hell of a fun time looking back on guys who have signed deals like this. So if we can assume that Alec Pierce signs for 30 plus million a year, if he hits 30, which I think he will, he's going to be a member.
- [32:52]
Robert Mays
Was like, Alec Pierce is going to make $20 million a year.
- [32:54]
Dave
Oops.
- [32:55]
Derek
Well, also with 30 million, like I know we're talking about the cap changing, but it's not that long ago that quarterbacks were barely cracking over 30 million. So the fact that we're there with receivers, it's just like crazy how fast that happened.
- [33:06]
Dave
That's what I was trying to say at the start of the show, which I'm going to illustrate here.
- [33:09]
Robert Mays
So.
- [33:09]
Dave
All right, let's, let's game this out. If Alec Pierce signs a deal worth 30 million or more, he'll be 7 8among receivers in AAV.
- [33:18]
Robert Mays
Yeah. Without you getting cut. Yeah, it's just behind Amanra St. Brown,
- [33:22]
Dave
depending on how high the price goes. Like if he could get up to like 33 million and maybe that's pie in the sky, but I'm sure he and his agent are going to try. He could get as high as like he could get into the top five. I think that is in the realm of possibility. So what's interesting about that is we just, we have not seen that many free agents come that close to the top of the market in terms of aav. Obviously length of deals are different, guarantees are different. It's hard to quantify all of that. But for my purposes I'm just looking at aav. Would you like to know? Or maybe you already do because you're good at your job. Over the last like decade plus guys who have climbed as high as sixth in the hierarchy of AAV going back,
- [34:03]
Robert Mays
I went back to receiver.
- [34:04]
Dave
At receiver specifically, I went Back to like 2010.
- [34:08]
Robert Mays
Did Kirk get there on his deal? He did not okay. So the one I would throw out did Kenny Golladay.
- [34:14]
Dave
Kenny Golladay.
- [34:14]
Robert Mays
So not exciting.
- [34:16]
Dave
If you're in the Alec Pierce sweet stage.
- [34:18]
Robert Mays
So I. I know it's a mean one. That is the conf that I had for Alec Pierce and I like Alec Pierce as a player.
- [34:26]
Dave
Right.
- [34:26]
Robert Mays
But if you are solely looking at the history of free agency and the types of contracts that are handed out in free agency, the best comp for Alec Pierce in this group is Kenny Golladay in 2021.
- [34:37]
Derek
There's similar players too. Like big strider catches stuff big outside the numbers in the area.
- [34:43]
Robert Mays
I wasn't happy about it.
- [34:44]
Derek
Yeah.
- [34:45]
Robert Mays
Okay.
- [34:45]
Dave
Can I try to dig this out of the ditch? Because there's. There's two.
- [34:48]
Robert Mays
I want you to. Because I like Alec Pierce.
- [34:50]
Dave
There's two more I wanted to say. And actually they're not that great. They're really.
- [34:54]
Robert Mays
I'm telling you, it's not a good history. There are no good free agent receivers at the top of the market ever.
- [34:59]
Dave
And again, I'm not talking about the size of the deal. I was only curious about AAV because otherwise there's just too many variables. In 2018, Sammy Watkins signed with the Chiefs for three years. 48 million putting him sixth in average annual salary at the time. Now if you go look at it and this is where I had a good like remember some guys moment. Cause once the Chiefs become a dynasty, you. It just sort of crystallizes on what Tyreek and Kelsey did for them and, and obviously Mahomes and Spags and all that stuff. Sammy Watkins unquestionably disappointing relative to the size of the contract. Yes, he bald in the playoffs for the early Chiefs. Sammy Watkins was a huge piece of the first Super Bowl. And as somebody who's not like day to day invested in the Kansas City Chiefs, I had a lot of fun just going back and being like, oh shit, he did have like three great playoff in 2019. I would have never remembered that if I hadn't done this exercise.
- [35:59]
Robert Mays
So Sammy watkins, that was 2017. Okay. He made. That was 2018. He made $16 million a year in 2018. Was a shitload of money as you're referencing contract. Okay, let's go through the highest paid receivers in free agency since Sammy Watkins in 2018. 2019, Tyrell Williams, four years, 44 million from the, from the Raiders, which 11 million was a lot different in 2019 than it is now. Following year, Post Niners, Emmanuel Sanders made $12 million a year to go to the Saints. 2021 Kenny Galladay 4 years, 72 million to go to the Giants. 2022 Christian Kirk, $18 million a year to go to the Jags. 2023 OBJ 1 year, 15 million to go to the Ravens. Okay, the biggest multi year deal that I guess DeAndre Hopkins was on a multi year deal. So that was 13 million doll titans. And then 2024 we have Calvin Ridley four years, 92 million, $23 million a year.
- [37:01]
Dave
I've got one more guy for you who did crop top. He got into the top six with his AAV all the way back in 2013. Mike Wallace.
- [37:11]
Robert Mays
So the, the, the free age, I'm telling you, the free agent history of receivers at the top of the market is, is very poor.
- [37:18]
Dave
I will say, okay, very poor. I'm not really making my point here because Mike Wallace, of the three guys I highlighted had the best stent. Mike Wallace as a Dolphin, he got a five year $60 million deal which, the fact that like top of the market for a receiver was a $60 million contract in 2013 is crazy. But in his two years with the Dolphins, he had 1800 yards and 15 touchdowns, which is, I mean you, you, it's not enough. It's, it's not what you wanted when you gave him that deal, but it's, it's certainly better than what Galladay and Watkins did over the course of their contracts.
- [37:52]
Robert Mays
So again, I did not feel good about the Kenny Galladay thing. But history of the position, you, you just laid out all the examples. It is probably the best recent comparison for the market that Alec Pierce is going to get. Even if I like Alec Pierce as
- [38:03]
Dave
a player, that's, it's, we talked about it yesterday where we were like, you know, I don't even include Alec Pierce in the, in the receiver market because the price is going to be so exorbitant. And it sucks because I do like him as a player and I do think there are a handful of places where he could be really fun. But, but the track record is not encouraging. It's really not. I would not want to be handing a contract like that out if I were, if I were in this position.
- [38:31]
Robert Mays
So let's keep it in the 2021 free agent wide receiver group as I try to come up with another comp here. I have two players that I'm going to throw out for Romeo Dobbs. One, as I think this is how it would work out. Two, this is the downside of it. Romeo Dobbs as Jacobi Myers in a better situation right like if we drop Jacobi Myers in a non Raiders scenario, if he's just in the Jags offense from the beginning for $11 million a year, that is a good contract. And I do think Dobbs in the right situation could look like Jacoby Myers did this year for the Jaguars. Like I do think that is a possibility. Or is Romeo Dobbs 2021 Corey Davis
- [39:11]
Derek
that actually so I almost put that comp down. I think that that is really, really good because as I was going through and looking just at like previous, you know, FA classes and stuff like that, I looked at the Corey Davis deal and I was like there's got to be a receiver in here who like feels a little bit like that where like the big bodied, oh he'll just be like our big possession guy and he'll win on some of these third downs and he'll be our chain mover. And then the jets signed him and he was just never really that again the way that he was at certain points in Tennessee. And so I kind of think Dobbs is better than that. But it's hard not to see that that could be a good comp.
- [39:43]
Robert Mays
Here's why I like because I think similar to we don't think of the 2020 and 2019 Tennessee Titans as a great offensive situation. It was one of the best offenses in the league. They were incredibly good and incredibly efficient. And again I think the, the packers weren't the best offensive league over the last two years. But I think objectively the Green Bay packers is a very good offensive ecosystem in which to be a player. So I think there's a similarity to that. And, and if you look at the numbers. So when Christian Watson was back on the field this year he had like a 23 and a half percent targets per route run number. Romeo Dobbs was down to 20. That's almost the exact same gap as the gap between A.J. brown and Corey Davis on those Titans teams where so you're kind of like a, you're a number two receiver even though you're still extremely productive but because there's a guy who's maybe a little bit more important to the offense and it's a good ecosystem that to me sometimes feels like how we run into problems with wide receivers and free agency or just players in free agency in general. So I see a world where that happens with Dobbs in the wrong scenario, but I also see a world where he works out. So I had like two different ones depending on landing spot.
- [40:51]
Dave
I've been thinking about Dobbs a lot, probably because we keep talking about him and I like him as a player. I get it. But I've been thinking about him specifically, and I said this on yesterday's show, but I just keep going back to it where it's so fun to imagine him joining your team on what you think of as a friendly deal. What if Romeo Dobbs again, in a world where like the top 10 receivers all make $30 million a year, and like $25 million a year isn't even something to bat an eyelash at anymore, what if Romeo Dobbs signs, like a $100 million contract next week? Is like, is that insane?
- [41:30]
Robert Mays
That feels crazy to me.
- [41:31]
Dave
I mean, stats tell you that he's not worth that, but he, he turns 26 next month.
- [41:37]
Robert Mays
Month.
- [41:37]
Dave
He, like, he's, he's got four years of production. Like if, if I.
- [41:42]
Robert Mays
So Jacoby Myers just signed a $20 million a year deal, right? That, that's, that would be the comp that you could make in terms of like, the types of players who can make $20 million a year.
- [41:51]
Dave
Romeo Dobbs is a prime candidate for me where in the weeks leading up to free agency, you're like, yeah, I'd love to have Romeo Dobbs. And you're thinking he's like a middle tier free agent. And then on Monday evening you're just like, like, he got, he got what
- [42:06]
Robert Mays
I think your hope would have to be. It's just the inflation markup on the Darnell Mooney deal from a couple of years ago.
- [42:10]
Derek
I think this is good though, because the wide receiver market is weird in general. But then after Alec Pierce, how many of the second contract wide receivers are you really going for? Like maybe Jaylen Naylor, who maybe we'll end up talking about, but there's really not a lot.
- [42:21]
Robert Mays
We'll talk about him tomorrow.
- [42:22]
Derek
Yeah, okay, there you go. Like there, there's just not a lot of those second contract receivers. So I could totally see the market kind of playing up. You know, half a million tomorrow. You made a receiver million tomorrow.
- [42:33]
Dave
If you need a receiver and you don't want to be in the Alec Pierce sweepstakes, it's Romeo Dobbs and then some guys who are either too close to 30 or on the other side of 30. Like, Dobbs is right in that sweet spot. Like, if you need a starter, he's, he's the best thing you got. That's not going to be $33 million a year.
- [42:51]
Robert Mays
Do you want to hear my next mean one while we're talking about those? Soon to be 30 guys.
- [42:55]
Dave
Yeah, go ahead.
- [42:55]
Robert Mays
What if Juwan Jennings is Rams Allen Robinson?
- [42:58]
Dave
No.
- [42:58]
Derek
Oh, wow, that's a great one.
- [43:01]
Dave
I think that I don't like the mean ones. I want to. I want to believe the best in everybody right now.
- [43:06]
Robert Mays
Slight dip in production. Age 28, season gonna be 29. Where you're like, ah, now he'll be okay. And then he gets there and it's just a nightmare. And, like, I don't want that to be true, but that was the first name that came to mind. When I think about the idea of, like, Juwan Jennings making, like, $18 million a year in this free agent class and it ending like that, like, it's not crazy to think about.
- [43:27]
Derek
It's not. And the thing I'll say that, like, this will get us to the same endpoint with Alan Robinson, but I do think, like, the small difference is at least Allen Robinson, like, was a number one receiver at some point. So I get why we kept buying it.
- [43:38]
Robert Mays
Yeah.
- [43:38]
Derek
The reason I would be scared of Juwan Jennings, though, is that he's always been a very particular role player in the Niners offense, which is great. And if he gets signed to do that somewhere else, maybe it could still work. But if they, like, want to expand his role at all or expect any more from him than what he's been asked consistently in San Francisco, that a little bit feels like you could end up overpaying for a guy who, like you said, is creeping up on the wrong side of 30 there.
- [44:02]
Robert Mays
All right, do you guys want to hear my Cade Mays one that I was really excited about?
- [44:07]
Derek
Yes, please. I've been waiting for this the entire show.
- [44:10]
Robert Mays
It's probably not going to be this amount of money because this guy got paid more than I assume Cade Mays is going to get paid. But I think there are some similarities here. I think if you look at the actual AAV and you do it for what the cap is, Kate. Amaze. Enough to make, like, $15 million a year to make this comp work. And I don't think it'll be that much. What if Cade Mays is Buck's Ryan Jensen?
- [44:32]
Dave
Ooh. Oh, that's fun.
- [44:34]
Derek
I can kind of see that guy
- [44:35]
Robert Mays
who didn't play early in his career, had, like, one full year as a starter before he got that big contract, big physical again. Ryan Jensen got 10 and a half million dollars a year in 2018. I don't think Cade Maza's market is going to look like that. But let's say cade Mays gets 10 and a half million dollars a year now, so it's not quite in the same tier. That, to me, was like the optimistic spin where, like, what if he's 80% of bucks Ryan Jensen.
- [45:01]
Derek
And that's just perfect stylistically. I love that one, too. And there's also a little bit of NFC south connection here.
- [45:06]
Dave
I'm super into this one underrated piece of those Bucs teams.
- [45:10]
Robert Mays
He was awesome.
- [45:11]
Dave
Yeah, Ryan.
- [45:12]
Robert Mays
Ryan Jensen was a phenomenal center. I mean, again. And so if you look at Ryan Jensen's history as a player when he was in Tampa or when he was in Baltimore, he did not play a ton over those first couple years. So in. When he was in Baltimore, had nine combined starts in his first three seasons and then started 16 games at center for the Ravens his final year there before getting that deal with. With the Bucks. So Kid May is kind of similar, right? Like, he wasn't a starter from day one in his final year that deal the same way that Ryan Jensen was, but was essentially a starter for almost this entire season in his last year of his deal. And again, I think stylistically there are some similarities there. Like that that's a comparison. If he ends up hitting that, it's. They're throwing a parade for whichever team signs him. But that was the one that came to mind.
- [45:59]
Derek
God, that's good. I was. I've been itching for the Cade maze one the entire show. I knew that was going to be your guy, so we had to see what you had up.
- [46:06]
Robert Mays
I just like, big, you centers, and
- [46:09]
Derek
like many of them, it's usually guys who are undersized.
- [46:12]
Robert Mays
So I was talking to somebody that was in the market for him and that, like, would be looking at him. I don't think he's going to be somebody that's going to be like, taking everything off of your quarterback's plate when it comes to the mental side of things, which is obviously a consideration that you'll have to take into account whenever you're signing a center. But again, just like from the physicality, he's potentially bringing to the middle of your offensive line. I. I like that one. That was one of my favorite ones. I found. I've got meaner ones.
- [46:36]
Derek
I've got.
- [46:37]
Schwab Ad Speaker
I. I'm.
- [46:37]
Derek
I'm gonna get us away from the meaner ones, but I do.
- [46:40]
Dave
I was looking for nice ones.
- [46:42]
Robert Mays
So the problem is I liked doing the receivers and there are no good receivers. So that's where all the mean ones are.
- [46:48]
Derek
Right?
- [46:48]
Dave
Totally.
- [46:49]
Robert Mays
I had.
- [46:49]
Derek
I had. True to form. I Have a mean linebacker one I'll get to a little bit later, but I wanted to, I have a lot
- [46:53]
Robert Mays
of linebacker ones and I, I, I almost don't want to say them because I, I wish I would have run them, Run them by you first.
- [46:58]
Derek
Oh, that's good. Well, we gotta, we'll do a couple of them live and see how, see how they hold up. I'm sure we both have a Devin Lloyd one there somewhere, but I want to go to a more one that feels like a boring signing, but I think will go well for whoever this team is. And it's actually a cross position comp. Last year, Robert Spillane was like a kind of like boring mid tier at his position guy that, that when he was on the field for the Patriots, kind of glued their defense together. Their run defense was awesome. When he was on the field, he was pretty good in pass coverage. He just, when he was on the field, the defense was better. It communicated better. It was it. He glued it together. I kind of feel like at tight end, Kate Otten can do that for somebody where he's like really good in the run game for you. He can block a little bit. He's a safety valve for your quarterback. He glued.
- [47:43]
Robert Mays
Just let him cook, just let him go. The Robert Spillane, Kate Otten cross positional comparison that's happening right now. Only a few, few people in America could do this and you just got to let him go.
- [47:55]
Dave
This is potting at its finest. That's.
- [47:57]
Derek
I just, I was like, man, who is I? Because I was trying to look@k dot and I was like, man, I feel like he's going to do something for somebody. But you look at all the like, other previous tight end signings and it's like it's either guys that were only really like these niche role player blockers or it's the guys that often end up being like, you know, just like your super pass catchers. He kind of is in the middle. He's like a true why that's going to really hit the market. And he can, like I said, like a Robert Splinter Lane, glue your unit together and kind of keep everything on the tracks.
- [48:24]
Robert Mays
This is a weird one, but it's almost like it's Colby Parkinson but only this year. Not, not the first year of the deal, like only this year. Colby Parkinson, 100%.
- [48:34]
Dave
I like how we land on different conclusions. I, I don't like to say that I don't like players because I like Kate Otten. He, but he's a prime example to Me of like, okay, but what's the cost? Like, I think we talked about it yesterday. Like, I like Kate Otten, but. But if his price gets out of control because he's one of the best available all around tight ends, I don't want to be in a position where I'm the one paying Kate Otten, you know, eight figures or like, whatever.
- [49:00]
Robert Mays
Oh, really? You think that's too much? So just for.
- [49:03]
Dave
I would just rather find a discount somewhere else. That's all.
- [49:06]
Robert Mays
Okay, so here, here's what I would say. Okay. In. So the last couple years, the two guys I would throw out, where it's like I could understand him getting paid in this general range. I don't think it's crazy. Both Jake Ferguson and Cole Comet make 12 and a half million dollars a year.
- [49:22]
Derek
That's exactly where I was thinking. Like that, to me is like, I, if you're paying him what you're paying Jake Ferguson, I think I'm pretty happy with that amount of money for.
- [49:29]
Dave
It's funny because Jake Ferguson has had his fair share of frustrating moments over the last two years, but I still think of at his best, which it's fair to argue he hasn't been at his best for most of the last two seasons. But like I think of Jake Ferguson as a more dynamic downfield. And do you think I'm off base with that?
- [49:49]
Derek
I don't. But I also, I do wonder a little bit like what Kate Otten might be able to look like as a like vertical middle of the field threat with a, with a quarterback who I think is a little bit better at throwing the middle of the field.
- [49:59]
Dave
Like, Baker Mayfield just hasn't done it in Tampa. Right.
- [50:03]
Derek
Like, I would kind of be curious, like, what does a Kate on look like with a Dak Prescott style? Of course, obviously, you know, Dallas isn't going to sign him, but just somebody who's a little bit more willing to, to make some of those throws like over the intermediate 12 to 20 yard range.
- [50:15]
Dave
I guess that's fair. I probably, yeah, like when I think about Kate Otten, I'm thinking about catching a lot of screens and not being as great of a blocker as I would prefer. But like, that's not to say you can't have a vision for him beyond that. Maybe I'm not giving him enough credit.
- [50:30]
Robert Mays
I'm looking at teams where Kate Otten would make sense and unfortunately for him, the team that is jumping off the page right now because of what you know, you know, you know what actually a team that has a lot of cap space and I think absolutely could use somebody like Kate Otten is the Titans because right now you're looking at the Titans tight end depth chart at gunner helm and because Chicago is hitting free agency and that's been their problem over the last couple of years is they really haven't had any tight ends that can give you anything as a blocker and so them just seeking out some sort of blocking a tight end I think makes a lot of sense. Adam Traubman setting free agency for the Broncos like they're going to need a skill set like that that I mean you talk about throwing the middle of the field. You don't want Bo Nicks playing with Kate. You'd be driving yourself insane.
- [51:13]
Derek
Good point. He's not really going to solve the that issue there and then the other
- [51:17]
Robert Mays
one and I don't know if they're going to draft the guy but the Eagles and Howie Roseman we were talking about this is that Berman at the combine how I think it was at his either his combine press conference or the availability he did with the Eagles B writers before they went to Indy. He was openly talking about how he was going to have to change or he wanted to change the way that he saw tight ends and the skill sets that he was seeking out. Because if you look at at it where the Eagles history of drafting tight ends but also signing them it's almost always outside of Goddard it's like 240 pound pass catching guys. Kylan Granson's on this team. Grant Calcatera, Zach Ertz like though that's almost exclusively what he has sought out and that's just not what the position is on the best teams in the NFL right now. And so them trying to find some sort of well rounded tight end I don't know if they'd spend on it in free agency but I assume that's a like the guy we've I've his I've said his name 10,000 times on the show over the past year. But like the Jackson Hawes type player I think will end up on the Philadelphia Eagles this year in some capacity in a way they've never really had a guy like that.
- [52:18]
Dave
I'm always intrigued whether that's and like I mean finding guys who are ready to do that. Obviously Hawes did it this year. You can definitely find them. But is it easier said than done to use a day three pick on that tight end or like spend a little bit more on a guy who's maybe not as much of a receiving option in your offense.
- [52:38]
Robert Mays
I kind of like the idea of using a 4th or 5th round pick on like that hype. Like AJ Barner, right? Like AJ Barner to me is like those are useful players right now and you can spend a fourth round pick on AJ Barner. I think you feel pretty good about it.
- [52:48]
Dave
I think most NFL teams would be happy to draft a day three tight end almost every year, even if it's not something that's going to get the fan base excited.
- [52:57]
Robert Mays
All right, before we get to our last few here, we're going to take one more quick break.
- [53:03]
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- [53:52]
Robert Mays
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Derek
But that's weird.
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Robert Mays
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- [54:27]
Robert Mays
All right, Dave, what's your next one? I feel like you haven't had one in a little while.
- [54:29]
Dave
I'm curious to see if y' all think I'm too low on this guy. And not to say like I think he's a good player. I'm just curious what his market might be. Boy, Mafe reminds me a little bit of Dorance Armstrong two years ago where he's been a piece of a very loaded pass rush. The like the career statistics like the body of work do not jump out at you. But clearly a valuable player and you know, I, I don't think he's going to get a top of the market deal to rush the passer. But for for Reference. Armstrong signed a $33 million contract two years ago, like Boy Mafe for $40 million. Like, I don't know, 10 for three years. Yeah, something like that.
- [55:11]
Robert Mays
Like, so it's funny because I, I was wondering where I wanted to put him because if you look at it, there's, to me, like, like Hassan Redick was too much at BET WOL on what he got paid. And his role within the offense, the Mafe thing, the guy I landed on kind of similar, where it's like it was $10 million a year before that was like Van Ginkel. He's not as specific of a player, but he can do a little bit of everything. You can drop him if you need to. And so him making like $13 million a year to kind of play that sort of role within a defense, I, that makes total sense.
- [55:43]
Dave
And Armstrong was the same way where he was on a front that had Micah and Tank Lawrence and so, so there's a little bit of hoping he can grow into a larger role. Cause he never had to be the guy. And I, like I said, I don't think you're signing Boy Mafe to be the centerpiece of your front, but yeah, 13 to 15 million dollars a year to be more of that guy than he has been to this point. I, I think that's what I would expect.
- [56:07]
Robert Mays
But yeah, I think that's probably where it lands. Maybe a little bit more expensive than that. But I just, again, you get the tax of everyone having watched him in the playoffs. But I, I think he will be a useful and helpful piece to the right sort of defense.
- [56:20]
Derek
No, I, Yeah, I think you kind of nailed the range. Because I feel like in a lot of cases with edge free agents, it's guys that you're either clearly paying at the top of the market, like the Trey Hendrickson's Jalen Phillips or whatever, or it's guys that you expect to be like pretty good rotational players for you, like a Kingsley and Igbarre in this class. Mafe does actually fit into that like Goldilocks zone where it's like, that's like a good number two starter, maybe high end rotational guy that you could be. So I'm into that compact if I
- [56:47]
Dave
had a primary edge, like if I had the guy and I added him to. Yeah, be. Be my 2 or be like the best 3 in the NFL, that I'd be pretty pumped about that.
- [56:58]
Robert Mays
All right, I've got two that we can do quickly. One is very nice and one is very mean. Okay.
- [57:05]
Dave
Start with the mean one. So we have something uplifting at the end.
- [57:10]
Robert Mays
What if Tariq wo and his 2020 Trey Wayne.
- [57:14]
Dave
Oh gosh.
- [57:15]
Derek
Okay, so here's.
- [57:16]
Dave
I haven't thought about that name in forever.
- [57:19]
Derek
I maybe this is just like a me thing. I personally never thought Trey Wayne's was good at all. Whereas like I do think Reek Wolin has had actually like some pretty high moments.
- [57:28]
Robert Mays
But I, I think that's fair. This is again this is like these aren't one to one comparison. I think tree one has been a better player than Trey Wayne's but it's like speed based was never like like you look at Trey Wayne's career in Minnesota. They did their best to never play him. It was very, it was back and forth like he was our first round pick but he had to, he was the third corner in his first year. And so kind of the same with Woolen where like they this when this staff has come in, like they marginalized him a little bit. He was not a starter all year in the same way that Trey Wayne's wasn't always a starter for the Bengals. And so I just think again this is the meanest possible outcome. I think it will be better than this. But I think the Trey Wayne's comp for me kind of explores the downside potential of what a like really big Tariq Wallen contract looks like in free agency.
- [58:17]
Dave
That's such an, it's a, it's an interesting name to remember because like when you are a first round pick typically like those guys live in our headspace for a long time because either you're good or based on your pedigree and your talent, you get a lot of shots in the NFL. And so for the most part part first round picks can kick around the league for a minimum of five if not like a decade like you got. And so for Trey Wayne's I'm looking at his Wikipedia right now like he
- [58:46]
Robert Mays
was done after that one year.
- [58:48]
Dave
He got that feel and then it was over and we never heard from him again. And so I, I swear to God, I don't think I've thought about him in like six years.
- [58:56]
Robert Mays
I again, I do not think that is going to happen with Tariq Wolin, but I think that is like the sort of downside case we're discussing pressing. Let's bring it back to the optimistic side and I don't think this is going to happen to this extent. But if you're talking yourself into how this could work, Trey Hendrickson as 2014 DeMarcus Ware.
- [59:13]
Dave
Oh, man, that would. I would love that because that would be really fun because obviously demarcus Ware did a lot for that Denver defense and they got to a Super bowl. And like, it's crazy the way, you know, he was only in Denver for two or three years, but they embrace him like he's a lifelong homegrown member of their squad. So that would be a fun final act for Trey Hendrickson if he wound up in a situation like that.
- [59:38]
Robert Mays
So just some details here. Age 32, season is when they would be signing with their new teams. That's when DeMarcus Ware signed with the Broncos. That's what. Trey hendrickson will turn 32 this year. Obviously, Trey Hendrickson's career up to this point has not been DeMarcus Ware's career. For. For those of you guys who may not have thought about DeMarcus Ware for a while while fourth in Defensive Rookie of the Year voting in year two, second team all pro. Third first team all pro. First team all pro. First team all pro. Second team all pro. First team all Pro, second team all pro. The first time between years two and seven that he wasn't an All Pro was his last year in Del. He played 13 games, hits free agency, signs that deal with the Broncos, has 10 sacks in that first year with Denver, is a Pro Bowler. Like, again, the first eight years of their careers don't look the same. But if the final four or five did, where you have one final down year with the team that with your previous team and then sign a new deal. DeMarcus Ware's deal was $10 million a year in 2014. If you look at percentage of the cap, that's like $23 million a year for Trey Hendrickson this year, which that's
- [60:43]
Derek
kind of what I assume the market is going to be.
- [60:46]
Dave
I really feel like edge rusher is one of those positions where guys will play deep into their 30s. And if, like, if you're good, if you're of a DeMarcus ware, Trey Hendrickson caliber, you'll see guys hop on with contenders year after year. And I think where is such a inspiration for those guys? Cause like, if you've still got the juice, even if you're not what you were, you can be a meaningful part of a very meaningful team. And I that swan song for him in Denver, I think is. Is a big inspiration for guys that are trying to do that. I mean, he was outstanding.
- [61:21]
Robert Mays
It could go poorly. But again, like, that to me is like the best way for every guy.
- [61:25]
Dave
Like I Mean, guys do this every year. I mean, I was trying to get pumped about Hass Reddick in Tampa in August. And I mean, you know, like it happens every single year. Not everybody's gonna have as satisfying an ending.
- [61:36]
Derek
Dave makes you end with the positive one and then you still end it with. This could just be terrible. Like this could just.
- [61:42]
Robert Mays
It's just worth acknowledging that when you're signing 32 year old free agents, like the range of outcomes is very big.
- [61:48]
Dave
I mean, I can't think of. And we have to talk about it and it's fun to speculate, but I can't think of content that will age more poorly, more quickly than us comping players and finding contract value like days before the league year opens.
- [62:03]
Robert Mays
And this is just about having a good time.
- [62:05]
Dave
Just remembering some guys, which we have definitely done today.
- [62:08]
Robert Mays
Derek, who are your linebackers that you had? I had a couple.
- [62:11]
Derek
Yeah, I had a couple comps. So I'll start with. We'll kind of do the order you just did, where I do the meaner one first and I'll do the one that I think is a little bit more fun after that. Devin Lloyd. This feels a lot like the Patrick Queen deal to me, where I think some of like how Patrick Queen like was able to ascend is a little bit different. But that final year year next to a smart linebacker kind of feels a little bit similar to me.
- [62:36]
Robert Mays
Oh, I think there's. What? There's a more obvious one than that.
- [62:38]
Derek
Are you going to say Tremaine Edmonds? Are you going to hit him? Yeah.
- [62:40]
Robert Mays
See? See? But I, I don't know.
- [62:44]
Derek
Like, I. Tremaine Edmonds was better earlier in his career, which made it a little bit different for me. But in terms of just like body type, what he is in theory versus what he is in practice, I actually do think that Edmunds is pretty good as well.
- [62:56]
Dave
It's funny, I actually, I thought about putting Queen on here with Devin Lloyd as well, Derek, but. And look, Foyer Ludicon's a good player. I don't think it's a completely fair comp to compare that to Queen playing next to bro Juan. Like Patrick Queen was playing next to the archetype and I think that inflated his ability a little bit. I think I'm giving Devin Lloyd a lot more credit. And Anthony Campanelli, I'm giving them a lot more credit for him finding himself. Whereas I love my guy pq. But that's the situation where it's like, okay, how much of this is you and how much of this is the best linebacker in football.
- [63:33]
Robert Mays
The only, the other reason I was making that comp is Patrick Queen got $13.7 million a year in 2024. I think there's a chance Devin Lloyd makes a shitload of money on Monday. I'm like, so Tremaine Edmonds got 18 million a year in 2023. I'm not going to be surprised at all if Devin Lloyd makes $20 million a year on this contract. That is a lot more than Patrick Queen got over the last couple when he got that deal.
- [63:55]
Derek
That's just crazy to me and because I think part of why I went with Patrick Queen versus a little bit of tremata and in terms of what they they're going to command, money wise and body type Edmonds makes more sense. The thing for me with Patrick Queen was like it was a one year at the end of his stint there and it a little bit felt to me like when you're paying him, that was a guy where I'm like, prove it again. Like, do it again and show me that you can actually play at that level multiple years in a row. I kind of feel the same way about Devin Lloyd and I do think he got better this year. His ability to come downhill was better. He was a little bit cleaner in coverage, but I just. Some of the interceptions were a little bit lucky. Sometimes, like, I think we underrate how good the defensive tackles were for the Jaguars in terms keeping him clean. Like, I just, I want to see it again before I pay him. And that's kind of where I get with the Queen thing.
- [64:39]
Dave
I do. I ultimately, at the end of the day, I would be, I'd be nervous to get into the bidding war for Devin Lloyd, but I do think he deserves more credit for, for finding himself without like an all pro, you know, amazing guy playing next to him.
- [64:58]
Robert Mays
I mean, I think a stabilizing force though, is a good way of thinking about like a veteran guy next to you. Because trade Evans is the same way with Mama. I mean, like, having that guy next to you I think can be helpful. All right, so I had two more linebackers. We can do these very quickly. Speaking of foil, is Quay Walker for Luacon?
- [65:15]
Derek
Oh, maybe. See, this is great because I was just about to say, wouldn't you rather pay Quay Walker, like half of what Devin Lloyd is going to make and just have him?
- [65:23]
Dave
So if it's actually half, sure, it
- [65:25]
Derek
might be 70%, but still more so.
- [65:28]
Robert Mays
So Lucan and Luca got $15 million a year in 2022, which I. That's more than I remembered him getting. And, but remember at the time, even though I was like, man, that's a, like he was a productive tackler with Atlanta and with Quay Walker, like he's a decent run defender and like you can see the, like the potential. And I mean obviously he was a first round pick.
- [65:46]
Dave
Right.
- [65:46]
Robert Mays
This is a position where we see guys often come into their own, deep into their, deeper into their careers. And so is there a chance that Quay Walker gets more than we expect him to and he's the we you get. You're paying him for his best football, I guess is what I would say. Like I absolutely see a world where that happens, even if he's a little bit expensive because, because of the pedigree and the other one I had and this one might seem blasphemous, but stick with me for a second and I'll. I'm going to stress the diet version of this is Devin Bush diet. Demario Davis.
- [66:18]
Derek
I so no, you mean Davis a
- [66:22]
Dave
lifetime ago when he.
- [66:23]
Robert Mays
So I bounced around a couple different spots. Like it didn't happen right away. He had to go to a couple different teams. He was in with the jets, he was with. Went to the Browns and then to the jets and then to the Saints. Saints and obviously was the best version of himself with the Saints. Devin Bush, you have the Bastillers tenure. That's a disaster. He goes to Seattle, he comes to Cleveland. He's played very well over the last couple years. Like is there a world where Devin Bush's age 27 through 30 is actually really good. Like a very diet version of what demario Davis was.
- [66:52]
Derek
So actually in terms of like going down to like a step or two below in terms of player quality, in my mind what definitely Bush can be if he can sustain kind of what he did last year, it's very similar to like what I think Denzel Perryman has been over the last handful of years where he's kind of bouncing around as just this like this like one year mercenary, one or two year, like I'm going to mess shit up type of linebacker in very specific ways. That that to me is kind of what I imagine as Devin Bush.
- [67:19]
Robert Mays
Yeah, I don't stylistically like I don't think they're similar as players necessarily, but I just think like that career and Demer Davis is a third round pick.
- [67:27]
Dave
Right.
- [67:27]
Robert Mays
And so it's not the same sort of pedigree. But sign year deals with the Browns and the jets before going to the Saints in 2018. And then if you look at it like he was a first team all pro in 2019, second team all pro four times from 2020 to 2023. He never made a Pro bowl before the 2019 season.
- [67:47]
Dave
Wow.
- [67:47]
Derek
I can't imagine he would have been.
- [67:50]
Robert Mays
And that's. He would have been 30. He net. He never had a pro a postseason accolade until he was 30 years old. Mary Davis.
- [67:56]
Dave
Davis was old. Old seven years ago. I just, I love, I love that idea and I, I know you can get into trouble thinking this way, but I'd almost always. I'd rather bet on Devin Bush or the Devin Bush type player and hope that I can be right about that than. Than the Devin Lloyd situation where you're just fighting with two or three other teams to pay at the top of
- [68:20]
Robert Mays
the market and Devin Bush will be half of what you'd have. That. That will be half. I don't think Quay Walker will. Yeah. Few more that I had. Is Isaac selling just the left guard version of Kevin Zeitler now?
- [68:31]
Derek
100%.
- [68:32]
Dave
Isaac Sellamalu is your free agent of the year. I know that he just, that, that
- [68:36]
Robert Mays
just to me like he's just going to play left guard for one year, for three teams over the next three years and he's going to be good every time and we're going to be like when is this going to stop? So that one I had Rasheed Shahid as John Brown 2019 John Brown.
- [68:49]
Dave
Oh, with Buffalo.
- [68:51]
Robert Mays
Buffalo.
- [68:51]
Dave
Hell yeah. Yeah. I hope so. I was trying to figure out what
- [68:55]
Derek
I wanted to pay him.
- [68:55]
Robert Mays
$12 million a year. Vertical presence, reliable guy. Not like the most well rounded receiver but as part of like a broader room can give you what you need.
- [69:06]
Dave
It's funny, I remember we talked about it on trade deadline day. Like I think Rashid Shahid is a better receiver than or at least I thought. No, I still think like I think he's a better receiver than just the burner return guy reputation gives him credit for. But we didn't see that in Seattle. And that doesn't mean that he won't have season trade.
- [69:26]
Robert Mays
You have an offense that's already like solidified. Like I do think and I think he's more than just a vertical guy by the way. Like I think he can give you more than that within an offense. But I think just like that sort of player John Brand. John Brown made $9 million a year in 2019. So a team paying Rashid Shahid like $12 million a year to kind of be that within their offense even if he has a little bit more flexibility, I like that one. And then I have the one I feel better about, which is one of the meaner ones that I have. Wandell Robinson is 2021 Russell Gage.
- [69:55]
Derek
I honestly completely blacked out Russell Gage making that amount of money until I looked it up the other day. But that's actually pretty good.
- [70:03]
Robert Mays
So he got. Russell Gage got $10 million a year for Tampa. But if you translate that as a percentage of the cap, it would have been $15 million a year in 2026 money. And I think Wanda Robinson is going to get more. He probably will. So Wandell was 50, 50 slot outside the same way that Russell Gage was his last year in Atlanta. And I think to me, like my favorite part of this comp is Russell Gage was really productive during those years with the Falcons because there was no one else to throw the ball to.
- [70:29]
Derek
Exactly.
- [70:30]
Robert Mays
He was the only receiver on the team. And that's exactly what Wando Robinson is.
- [70:34]
Derek
Every now and then you get a receiver who cheats the numbers like with volume because of. Yeah, there's just nobody else to throw to. And like in a world world where any offense can throw for 3,800 yards in a season, it's like somebody's going to get a thousand yards somehow.
- [70:47]
Robert Mays
Yeah, that was my favorite one.
- [70:49]
Dave
I hate it. I'm a biased LSU homer. But like you, like you get promoted to the level of your own incompetence. Like Russell Gage is objectively a success story like a sixth round pick who rose up to be worth a $30 million contract. But once you're on a $30 million contract and you're not producing, it's. It's back to being a bum and a guy that years later we' oh yeah, remember that deal not working out,
- [71:15]
Robert Mays
$29 million playing professional football. So he did just fine.
- [71:20]
Dave
Wandale Robinson is a good shout though. I feel like when we've talked about the receiver market, he hasn't really come up. And subconsciously that's probably because I wouldn't be excited to give him a lot of money tomorrow.
- [71:30]
Robert Mays
We're doing superlatives, free agency superlatives. So we're doing a bunch of different categories, favorite fits, things like that. One of the categories that we're going to do is guy that is going to make more money than you think. And in talking to some people around the league this morning, just asking a cootie think that guy will be Wandell Robinson was one of the first responses. So we will be doing that category. Plus a bunch of others on tomorrow's show. Very much looking forward to that. As a reminder, Monday 11am Central Athletic Football Show YouTube channel we are starting a five hour free agency day one live stream. We have 15 guests that are going to be joining us over that 15 over that five hour period. Do you want me to list off the guests? Is that why you're showing me the graphic? Okay, 16 guests says Katie, our producer Deontay Lee, Sam Schwarzstein, Jordan Rodri, JP Acosta, Nate Tice, Danny Kelly, Ben Solak, Mina Kimes, Diana Rossini, Connor or Carmen Vitale, Trevor Sikoa, Bill Barnwell, Matt Harmon, Fran Duffy, Mike Sando are all the people that have been confirmed. So if any of them back out, you now know that they did that and you can yell at them.
- [72:34]
Dave
That's quite a card.
- [72:35]
Robert Mays
That's I feel pretty good about it. I feel pretty good. But it was one of those things where I asked everyone and that I wasn't sure how many people were going to say yes. Then I asked more people and then everyone said yes. So I appreciate appreciate everyone that's going to be joining us and spending their time. I think it's going to be really fun. Encourage you guys to come hang out and watch along with us. For now, that is all we got. We'll talk to you tomorrow.
- [73:09]
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