The Athletic Football Show: 2026 Free Agency Doppelgängers

Episode Date: March 5, 2026
Hosts: Robert Mays, Derrik Klassen, Dave Helman

Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into the impending 2026 NFL free agency class, as the hosts draw comparisons (“doppelgängers”) between this year’s top free agents and similar free agents from recent history. Through archetype-based comps—both optimistic and cautionary—the trio highlights potential team fits, contract outcomes, and the lessons of past signings. The show opens with breaking news about a major trade before shifting into a lively and often humorous exploration of free agency history, remembering both success stories and infamous busts.

1. Breaking News: Trent McDuffie Trade to the Rams

[01:21–13:38]

• Trade Details: Trent McDuffie traded from the Chiefs to the Rams for a huge haul (29th overall pick, 5th and 6th rounders, and a 2027 third).

• Rams’ Angle:

  • They’re in a win-now window: "Who gives a shit about a 2027 third round pick if we're trying to get Stafford one more ring." — Dave [05:48]
  • McDuffie fits their DB mix, especially if they shuffle Quinn Lake to safety.
  • Rams have huge 2027 cap space, so the move makes sense if they want to push all-in again.

• Chiefs’ Side:

  • Given their ability to draft/develop DBs and McDuffie’s high market value, "you do this a hundred times out of 100." — Robert [07:49]
  • The debate: Is it wise to extend other defenders (like Nick Bolton/George Karlaftis) over a true CB? Chiefs’ resource allocation comes under scrutiny.

• Draft & Roster Building Implications:

  • With two 1sts, can KC now address other needs—or is corner still too important to pass up? Dave worries about using a top 10 pick on a CB, but Robert points out the Rams found value late with McDuffie himself.
  • Insights into how expected draft flexibility can shape these decisions.

2. The Main Event: 2026 Free Agency Doppelgängers

[13:38–72:33]

A. Offensive Line Archetypes

[14:11–17:14]

• Connor McGovern comped to Drew Dalman

  • Big center deals, immediate impact types for teams needing OL stability.
  • If teams miss on Tyler Linderbaum, McGovern is the prize. "He feels like the guy who is going to do that for some team." — Derek [14:17]
  • McGovern has already made a successful second contract leap, suggesting a third could be solid value.

• Dylan Parham as 2023 Connor McGovern

  • Under-the-radar, second-contract options with potential to blossom in better situations.

B. Defensive Back Market & Safety Group

[17:14–21:15]

• Cam Curl → Cam Bynum
  • Leaving a strong ecosystem, questions about repeatability, but an underappreciated, versatile piece.
  • Will safety contracts hold up? “It's not a top heavy group, but there's a lot of depth to it.” — Robert [18:43]
  • Jalen Thompson as a potential ‘hidden value’ free agent, outplaying contract due to recency bias against his former team’s bad defense.

C. Cornerback Contracts and Aging Risks

[21:15–24:17]

• Jamel Dean as James Bradberry

  • Aging, productivity drop-off a risk, but a short-window, instant-impact player for a contender.
  • Caution: "Really tiny window where if it was that one year deal, it would have been a massive hit. And because they resigned [Bradberry] eventually, there was a little bit of buyer's remorse." — Robert [22:13]

• Jamel Dean/Carlton Davis: Parallels

  • Dave charts their eerily similar career paths—same region, college, contract structure [23:10]—underscoring predictability in some free agent arcs.

D. Wide Receiver Free Agency History: Cautionary Tales & Market Realities

[31:53–41:51]

• Alec Pierce as Kenny Golladay

  • "If you are solely looking at the history of free agency and the types of contracts...the best comp for Alec Pierce in this group is Kenny Golladay in 2021." — Robert [34:26]
  • Brief rundown of the high-priced free agent WR history—few true successes, lots of disappointment (Golladay, Mike Wallace, Tyrell Williams, etc.).
  • Market reality: Pierce may enter the top 5–8 in WR AAV, but history warns this rarely ends well.

• Romeo Doubs as Jacobi Meyers/Corey Davis

  • Potential for overpayment if removed from a good offensive ecosystem.
  • “I could totally see the market kind of playing up.” — Derek [42:10]

• Jauan Jennings as Rams Allen Robinson

  • High risk of drop-off post-role expansion and age. "If they want to expand his role at all...overpaying for a guy who...is creeping up on the wrong side of 30." — Derek [43:37]

• Kade Mays as Bucs' Ryan Jensen (Optimistic Spin)

  • Not a 1:1 AAV comp, but mirrors the trajectory of a late breakout IOL who brings toughness and upside to the right situation [44:10–45:59].

E. Cross-Positional “Glue Guys” and Mid-tier Signings

[46:47–52:56]

• Robert Spillane (LB) compared to Cade Otton (TE)

  • Both glue their respective units together—mid-tier signings who outperform their price by elevating the fundamentals of a group.
  • "He kind of is in the middle. He's like a true Y that's going to really hit the market." — Derek [47:56]

• Tight End market fits:

  • Kade Otton’s market could mirror Jake Ferguson or Cole Kmet’s recent deals (~$12M/yr), and the hosts debate positional value in free agency.

F. Defensive Fronts & Edge Rusher Outlook

[54:26–59:13]

• Boye Mafe as Dorance Armstrong or Andrew Van Ginkel

  • A valuable rotational/secondary rusher who could thrive in the right ecosystem but shouldn't be a centerpiece.
  • Contract projection: $13–15M/year [55:42]

• Tariq Woolen as 2020 Trey Waynes (Downside)

  • Downside comp for speed/traits-based corners who never truly lock down a role. "I just think...the Trey Waynes comp for me kind of explores the downside potential of what a really big Tariq Woolen contract looks like." — Robert [57:27]

• Trey Hendrickson as 2014 DeMarcus Ware (Optimistic Endgame)

  • A potential swan song for an older pass rusher, citing Ware’s high-impact Denver stint. “That would be a fun final act for Trey Hendrickson...” — Dave [59:13]

G. Linebacker Comps: Big Money or Smart Bets?

[62:11–68:20]

• Devin Lloyd as Patrick Queen or Tremaine Edmunds

  • Questions linger about whether late-career, next-to-a-star leaps are sustainable.
  • Robert predicts Lloyd might even get $20M/year. [63:39]
  • "That's just crazy to me...Like, do it again and show me that you can actually play at that level multiple years in a row." — Derek [64:16]

• Quay Walker as Foyesade Oluokun

  • Similar track: productive, less flashy but could surprise with a bigger contract than expected for a middle-of-career inside linebacker.

• Devin Bush as Diet Demario Davis

  • Maybe Bush finally puts it together as a late-blooming journeyman “mercenary,” echoing Davis’ late New Orleans breakout.
  • “He never had a pro a postseason accolade until he was 30 years old.” — Robert on Demario Davis [67:47]

H. Lightning Round: Miscellaneous, Rapid-Fire Comps

[68:20–71:30]

• Isaac Seumalo as the new Kevin Zeitler at LG: Expect him to be a steady, traveling starter for several teams.

• Rashid Shaheed as 2019 John Brown:

  • “Vertical presence, reliable guy...not the most well-rounded receiver, but as part of a broader room..." — Robert [69:05]
  • Projecting $12M/year for Shaheed.

• Wandale Robinson as 2021 Russell Gage:

  • Slot/volume guys who benefit from thin depth charts then cash in, likely to surprise with big money. “Wandell Robinson was one of the first responses [for ‘making more than you think’].” — Robert [71:30]

3. Notable Quotes & Moments

"The history of free agency is littered with a lot of guys getting a ton of money and it not working out." — Robert Mays [01:30]

"If you are solely looking at the history...the best comp for Alec Pierce...is Kenny Golladay in 2021." — Robert Mays [34:26]

"You got exactly what you wanted and needed out of [Stefon Diggs]. You're getting out at a good time." — Dave Helman [29:07]

"If you're Kansas City...now that you have two first round picks, maybe you feel a little bit better spending 9 on a Mansoor Delaine or whoever you want to pick." — Derek Klassen [11:35]

"There are no good receivers. So that's where all the mean ones are." — Robert Mays [46:41]

"Only a few people in America could do this and you just gotta let him go." — Robert Mays (on Derek’s Robert Spillane/Kate Otten comp) [47:43]

4. Key Timestamps

• Trent McDuffie to Rams trade breakdown: [01:21–13:38]
• Kicking off "doppelgänger" comps: [13:38–14:11]
• OL comps – McGovern, Parham, Mays, Jensen: [14:11–17:14; 44:10–45:59]
• DBs/Safeties market & comp discussion: [17:14–21:15]
• CB aging risk/Bradberry-Dean-Davis: [21:15–24:17]
• Wide receiver market deep dive: [31:53–41:51]
• Edge/Front 7 comps (Mafe, Wo, Hendrickson): [54:26–61:25]
• Linebacker segment: [62:11–68:20]
• Lightning round/Miscellaneouss: [68:20–71:30]

5. Episode Tone & Flow

• Lively, good-natured debates with frequent "remember some guys" tangents.
• Humor underpins the skepticism about expensive free-agent signings—“mean” comps abound, but always with analytical context.
• Deep, insider-level analysis on how trends in contracts, roster construction, and scheme fit inform prudent free-agent spending.
• A spirit of fun pervades the episode, balancing advanced football insights with “just remembering some guys” nostalgia.

For deeper exploration, check out tomorrow's follow-up episode, featuring free agency superlatives—projected surprise contracts, best fits, and more, plus a 5-hour live stream on Day 1 of free agency.

End of summary.