← The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL
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- [00:00]
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Dane Brugler
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Dane Brugler
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- [01:00]
Dave Hellman
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- [01:37]
Robert Mays
Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays kicking off our draft coverage today. Obviously Building the Beast has been going all the way through the college football season, but I'm kicking off my draft coverage today. This is our first of a month full of draft centric shows here on the Athletic Football Show. We've done the show in the past and I always enjoy doing it because I have the person who probably knows the most about about the NFL draft to teach me about each individual class as we turn the page from free agency. So that's what we're doing today. Today is the Idiot's Guide to the 2026 NFL Draft. I am the idiot and Dane is here along with our buddy Dave Hellman to help teach me about what this draft looks like. What does it look like at the top? What sort of High end top 10 prospects are we talking about? This is a very unique class for that all the different positions. Where are the strengths? Where are the weaknesses? What is a good spot to be looking for in the first couple rounds? What is a bad spot to be looking for? Top 100. We had all of those conversations today. These were kind of precursors to deeper discussions we'll have about this class overall, about how this class compares historically, about the individual positions in this class on specific shows over the next month. But this to me feels like an introduction to both this class and our coverage. And I am thrilled to have Dane and Dave be a part of that. So let's get to the Idiot's guide to the 2026 NFL Draft. Right?
- [03:03]
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- [03:06]
Robert Mays
it's about that time. It's usually just before or just after the NCAA tournament kicks off. Every year we shift our gaze to the NFL draft full time on the Athletic Football show. And each year I'm pretty open about the fact that I come a little bit later to this process than the people who are doing it every single day. And so many of the years where we've kicked off our draft coverage, we've started it with what we call an Idiot's Guide to the NFL Draft. And every year I am that idiot. And so that's what we're doing today. We're going to have our guys, Dane Brugler and Dave Hellman from Building the Beast here to help me learn a little bit more about the NFL draft before we dive full scale into it. Dane, it's good to be back with you, buddy.
- [03:49]
Dane Brugler
I always really look forward to this pod because you bring a blank slate kind of perspective to this conversation and that makes it really fun. Yeah, this is. It's just a, it's a really crazy part of the calendar when we come to the draft and with pro days and just trying to get everything in the right spot. Like it's just. It's a different type of March madness. But. So this is a really fresh perspective to come to this pod kind of hitting the bare bones, the 30,000 foot view, however you want to phrase it. I always enjoy having this conversation.
- [04:23]
Robert Mays
My knowledge is mostly rooted in what I have learned listening to Building the Beast over the. Over the course of the year. Like that. That is the amount of draft coverage that I engage with during the course of the season. I don't watch much college football. Again, I'm very open about that and so I'm aware of kind of what the contours of the class look like. But I'm sure there are plenty of people that if they don't listen to Building the Beast, which is a mistake, but you should. That are not full time draft gurus or are not people that are thinking about the draft from the middle of last season unless you're like a Jets fan. You probably have not been looking at the draft prospects since December, all of you. So we're going to take today just to kind of give a broad overview about what this class looks like. Feels like some of the strengths, some of the weaknesses. And Dane, you had a couple kind of like five or six broader points that you wanted to bring to this that we're going to run through. So let's just start with those. And this is one that has come up a lot as we were kind of figuring out what our draft coverage was going to look like over the next month. We were talking about this yesterday, Dave. Just this idea that this is one of those years where don't overthink it. Just take the best player that's there. It doesn't necessarily have to be at a premium position. Doesn't have to be somebody that would check every single box as a top 10 pick previously. Some of that Dane is driven by the talent that's available in this draft, but some of it is driven by where the best players are available in this draft and which positions they play.
- [05:44]
Dave Hellman
Currently really fascinated by the life cycle of the NFL draft narrative because the we talk, we talk about the draft for so long and it has become such an industry unto itself that you can be having these conversations like 12 months out of the year and yet we as an NFL community still have collective amnesia where we can say like all through the fall, look, this is the state of the draft class.
- [06:12]
Robert Mays
This is.
- [06:12]
Dave Hellman
This is probably not going to be as good of a quarterback draft as we thought it was going to be. The star power in the top 10, 15 picks is, is not your ideal version of things. I mean, I can go find an episode of Building the Beast from October where Dane asked me what the top 10 would look like and I just drew like a 20 second BL like I had no idea what to say. But here we are in mid March and everybody, if you're not following, during football season, everybody's part of this now. Like everybody's doing draft content, everybody's watching tape and catching up and all the same old adages and idioms are coming into play and people are arguing about positional value and high end production and traits and we seem to have forgotten everything we said about this six months ago. And so I'm, I'm very interested by that and I'm interested in trying to find common ground where it's like, hey, we, we have to work within the parameters of what this draft class is,
- [07:09]
Dane Brugler
not to get too Far off the point. But it is always interesting to me how the draft narratives take shape and it's hard to keep up with them. You know I, I, I'm not, I'm not on Twitter all that much but I did the other day tweet Denzel Boston his pro day and how good he looked. The three cone was outstanding. Wide receiver from Washington. Robert, by the way, thank you.
- [07:33]
Robert Mays
Yeah, no, we're getting there. The first round guys I'm familiar with, I did my homework before we started
- [07:38]
Dane Brugler
this show but I tweeted about his pro day and apparently he's a faller. Like he's a mid second rounder. It's hard to keep up with how just the general public and fans what the draft narratives are. But I think Robert, like you, you mentioned how just drafted good players like that's, that's going to be the theme of this top 10. We can get so caught up in upside chasing traits really maximizing position value. And look, I get it, position value matters and, but I think it matters more so from a you know, contract standpoint, how the money works. You know we talked about this a lot with Brock Bowers right when he was coming out one of the top five players in that draft. But if you draft him, top seven, top eight, he's immediately a top five paid tight end in the league. And so is that the right way to allocate your resources? But for the most part I'm okay with the term position value just going away. I want it to go away and I want to replace it with impact value. To me that is the right way to look at this conversation. Is it more important to focus on the position or more important to focus on the impact? And so I, you know, every team, every roster is at a different phase, a different part of their evolution. So it's different for everybody. One positional value is not the same for the next team. And so you know, the Titans for example at 4, they're looking at their roster and you know their way of maxing out their, what they have is going to be different from another team. And so the, the impact value, to me that matters more so than any focus we put on the positional value.
- [09:21]
Robert Mays
The only pushback I'd have on that is I do think that the impact can be directly correlated to the position in certain situations. Right. Like Ashen Genti is the best example of this to me. Ashen Genti, there's a chance he's the right pick for the Raiders in a couple years, but because the offensive Infrastructure around him wasn't built up enough to get the most out of a player like Ashton Genti. You're not going to be able to realize the full impact of what Ashton Genti could have been over the last couple years. And so I think that's. Some positions are more reliant on others then some. Some positions are more reliant on the positions around them. Like, that's just the reality of the situation. I think running back can be that. But overall I, I think that makes. I think that's totally fair. I think my. I come back to two different points I want to hit with this one. Let's just talk about what this means in relation to the players that we're discussing. Right. So Arval Reese is at the top of your top 100. That's somebody who. To whom I don't think this really applies. Right. That's somebody where there are a lot of traits there. He's going to give you pass rush juice. Like, that's somebody that independent of our concerns about position, he's probably a worthwhile top player in any draft. And if he goes number two, I don't think anybody would blink after that. And even when the conversations you guys have had about like, is Sonny Styles legitimately the second best player in the draft, should he go number two overall? Is Jeremiah Love going to be a top five pick? And it seems like we're drifting further and further toward that. Caleb Downs is probably not somebody that would profile as a top 10 pick in a lot of other drafts, but in this one Dane, he might be. And so I think those are the guys that's kind of what I want to focus on. First. Who are the guys we're talking about here and why should they be exceptions to the way that we typically think about this stuff?
- [10:56]
Dane Brugler
Yeah. And I think, yeah, you hit on, I think some of those key guys. Sonny, the Ohio State guys, Sonny Styles at linebacker, Caleb Downs at safety. You know, Caleb Downs is really the probably the biggest wild card of the top 10 because you can make a case that he should go to. You can make a case that maybe he should fall to 10 or beyond. Like, it just part of it is the position he plays. Part of it is he doesn't have these overwhelming physical tr. The size is average, the speed, the athleticism is good. But he didn't test at the combine and I don't know if he'll test at the pro day. And, you know, it's part of the. A lot of teams look at this and say, you know, we're just, we're not comfortable drafting a safety in the top 10. That's just how several teams operate. But when you watch a tape, you see just this monster player who it. Part of it is how smart he is and just the different ways that, I mean, he, he, he sees the field like a chessboard and he's one step ahead of you at every turn. And he did this since his freshman year at Alabama. Played for three different defensive coordinators this past year. Matt Patricia defense coordinator, Ohio State and all the different disguises and all the different ways they would use him, it was, it unlocked everything for that, for that defense. Ohio State had arguably the number one defense in all of college football this past year, and a big part of that. And look, I, I Sonny Styles ARVL Reese like, there are a lot of Ohio State defensive players that are going to be drafted top 50, top 60 in this draft, but Caleb Downs was the thing that unlocked all of that. And so I, I think every team in the top 10, top 12 would love to have Galeb Downs, whether or not that's the right resource to take him top 10. That's, that's more of the discussion that they're having at this point.
- [12:42]
Robert Mays
Just to play this out right now. A lot of the beats we're going to hit here are beats that we're going to explore further in like actual shows over the next month. Like, you're going to hear echo stuff for things that we're going to blow out. But the Caleb Downs thing specifically, I feel like when we're talking about players like this, it can be useful to just look at historical comps, because when you're making outlier decisions, what other outliers have there been and where can we kind of learn lessons from this thing? And the Caleb Downs thing is so interesting for me, just from like, again, my very initial thoughts on this, because when you look at this idea of just take the good players independent of positional value, that can be a mixed bag because I think we overrate our ability to understand who the good players are. That's the problem with some of that stuff, right? And so it can go either way. Like, the best most recent example of this is the draft where the Lions took Jir Gibbs and Jack Campbell and people were freaking the out and then now a couple years later, looks pretty good, right?
- [13:33]
Dave Hellman
Like, those are good players.
- [13:34]
Robert Mays
It's better to have good players. Quentin Nelson's great example of this. Can you pick a guard with a sixth overall pick? You can't. If he's as good as Quinn Nelson like that. That's something you can easily do. But there are other examples of this on the other side like Devin Bush has resurrected his career. But Devin Bush was a top 10 picket linebacker and I think he was one of those guys like that's just a good player that did not work out for the Steelers. Especially when you consider the trade up Jeff Akuda. How many more guys in the last decade have we said oh yeah that's just that guy's just good like he's going to be in the league for 10 years than Jeff Akuda was. Kyle Pitts, you know, being a top five pick, he's a player that's worth franchising for the Falcons. But if you go back and do that draft over again he would not be taken. And the last guy I would throw out when I just think about the pre draft narrative around him, 10 year starter, solid as can be, he's worth taking in the first round. That's what we said about Zion Johnson. That's exactly what the conversation was around Zion Johnson and it's safety.
- [14:31]
Dane Brugler
This is a wet blanket. Geez. Okay, well I've seen a lot of
- [14:34]
Dave Hellman
names of a lot of guys I really liked at the time.
- [14:37]
Robert Mays
It just But I think that's part of the problem with this type of thinking is that is that we think that and Aaron Curry is the best example of this ever. We don't have to go back all the way. That's 15 years ago. That is quite a while. That's the best example ever where it's like this is the safest player in the draft. He's a top five and it was a no go at the with Caleb Downs specifically what's interesting to me because I think two other guys you'd throw in here and this is an example on the other side where just take the good players independent of value. These guys fell too far. Derwin and Kyle Hamilton, Those were top 10 players in their drafts. They went outside of the top 12 and I think both of them that there's been some regret in retrospect. But the difference to me again just first glance Derwin and Kyle Hamilton are physical outliers of the position. So with Caleb Downs, Dane, it feels like you're going to be making a different sort of bet even to some of these other super high end safety prospects that we've seen over the last 10 years.
- [15:31]
Dane Brugler
Yep. And that's fair. And but I think you could also look at if you look at Derwin James and Caleb Downs and you just watch their college tape and focus on them as prospects. You can come away saying Caleb Downs is a better prospect even though he isn't the physical, doesn't have some of the physical traits that, that Derwin brings to the table. And part of that, the, the mental part, part of it is, I mean he, Caleb Downs is an elite tackler. He can play close to line of scrimmage. Just the, the urgency, the intelligence, the toughness, all of that. You know, it's like I said, every team is going to want a Caleb Downs. It's a matter of where is. Where do we feel comfortable drafting him? And you know, part of it is in, in some other drafts they've been a little bit deeper and especially in the top half, top 15, top 20. So instead of drafting our safety here, let's go chase this traitsy pass rusher or this offensive tackle that shows a lot of promise this draft. It's a little. We don't have as many first round grades. It's not as deep in that top 10, top 15, not as many blue chippers. So I think more teams will be okay saying, you know what, like, yeah, Caleb Downs is maybe not a quote unquote elite physical prospect, but we feel good with him coming in, being a starter from day, day one and upgrading the back end of our defense. And I think there's value in that. And so I think the relationship to the overall class and just how it's not a top heavy group that will affect the decision making about where to take these guys as much as anything.
- [17:08]
Dave Hellman
The other thing I would mention, Robert is just. And no player is bust proof.
- [17:13]
Dane Brugler
Right?
- [17:13]
Dave Hellman
I completely get that and that's just baked into all of this. But this is a year where like we said, I mean you listed a few guys, but I have Dane's top 100 pulled up in front of me. I'm just looking through the top of it. Going down the list of the first 12 to 15 players, you can poke holes in pretty much every single prospect. I would say Fernando Mendoza, he's not a perfect quarterback prospect, but like he's, he's more than good enough to be the top guy off the board. And then other than that, I would say Jeremiah Love is the prospect with the least amount of questions or like the least amount of projection for me. And then everybody else between positional value and just holes in their game there, there aren't that many sure bets. And so if this is a year where let's even say, let's say like Caleb Downs doesn't live up to, to the hype. This is a year where I think you could be more comfortable making that bet than in other years because I think you're, you're making a pretty big gamble with a lot of these big time picks this year, which makes it scary, but also fun.
- [18:18]
Dane Brugler
You have to be okay with the double instead of we want to hit the home run. And that's as early as the top seven, top five. Like, you have to be okay with hitting that double instead of saying, this needs to be a true franchise changer for us.
- [18:32]
Robert Mays
I mean, that applies to Fernando Mendoza, doesn't it?
- [18:35]
Dave Hellman
It, yeah, to a degree it does.
- [18:37]
Dane Brugler
If Fernando Mendoza turns out to be the 12th best quarterback in the league, I think that's kind of the realistic projection for him, in my opinion. I don't know, other people might feel differently, but I think that's like, people might balk at that. When you say, oh, you can't take him number one if you only think
- [18:57]
Robert Mays
he can be, you absolutely can you
- [18:59]
Dane Brugler
actually sit down and list the top 15 quarterbacks in the league, you're like, okay, yeah, I guess that makes sense. And I think that it's somewhere between 10 and 13, I think is a fair projection, realistic projection for where Mendoza, maybe his ceiling will be in this league.
- [19:15]
Dave Hellman
Think you take that every single time or else you don't have a good understanding of how hard this shit is. I mean, that would be phenomenal for Fernando Mendoza.
- [19:24]
Robert Mays
A big picture thing that we don't have to talk a ton about now. But I do want to explore it at some point because I think it's an interesting study. That idea of doubles. Dane, if you look back at history of the draft, is it more important to find elite players in the draft or to not miss in the draft?
- [19:37]
Dane Brugler
Yeah, that's fascinating. I think there's. Obviously there are examples of both. Like, you know, I think, I don't think there's a hard fast. This is the right way to think. Part of it depends on like, where you are in your building, your roster. You know, where can you afford to. Maybe, you know, like the Rams sitting there at the 13th pick, they could afford to go make a splash if they, if they really want to. Whereas, you know, some of these other teams picking the top 10, hey, let's make sure we're getting a building block. A guy that might not be a true franchise changer, but he's a foundational piece for what we're trying to build here. So, yeah, I think that the answer to that is definitely a moving target based on the team.
- [20:16]
Dave Hellman
I'll cheat with my answer and say if you never miss, you will stumble into guys who are better than you thought they'd be.
- [20:23]
Robert Mays
Yes, I think that's right.
- [20:24]
Dave Hellman
If you, if you never miss, some of those guys will be elite, even if it's by pure luck.
- [20:29]
Robert Mays
I truly have no idea what the answer is. I just think it's a question worth exploring and maybe we will at some point. All right, let's get to the next one here. Dane, this is the first time in a long time, in your opinion, that we have a class that is light at both quarterback and running back at the same time. We've had the quarterback conversation for a while now. I mean every team, the Cardinals and Jets, are very well aware of the fact that this is not a quarterback heavy draft at the top. You know, maybe one other guy that's worth drafting in the first round and Ty Simpson. But the running back thing to me is almost more shocking because the idea that you have three running backs in your top 100, especially when you're coming off the heels of last year while we talked ad nauseam about how you could find a starter into the third and fourth round, this just does feel like a very strange class at running back and quarterback specifically.
- [21:16]
Dane Brugler
Yeah. And honestly it's, it's not even so going back to 1985, okay, that was the last time we saw single digit quarterback and running back both together drafted in the top 100 picks. So it's been a long time since both of these positions were light. And this year we'll see if that hap if we're able to get to double. If you combine the two positions drafted, if we can get to 10 or not. Right now I only have, you know, six or seven in my top 100 combined. And so I. We see quarterbacks overdrafted every year. You know, Drew Aller from Penn State could be one of those guys that gets into the top 100 for a team that just wants to bet on a quarterback, you know, like Mike Washington from Arkansas. Running back has done a really nice job this pre draft process. Wouldn't be surprised at all if he goes into, you know, the third round, for example. Especially when, you know, I think about the, the Seahawks, for example, like they only have I think one day, three pick. So if they want a running back they probably have to take them in say the third round. And so maybe you're taking a guy around earlier than you normally would or want to, but that's just what they have to do. So draft circumstance will play out how these positions come off the board. But overall, yeah, it's, it's just a, it's a lighter position at both and I don't know that there's a, you know, you know, I don't know there's a true root cause for why. It's just, just how this draft has played out and these things are cyclical. You know, last year was light at quarterback. You know we still saw, you know, quite a few go into as top 100 picks. But this year I just don't think we have that Tyler Schuck where you know, at this time last year like I felt like I was I had the champion for Tyler Schuck being a good quarterback and you know, I think he's, you know we were, we feel okay about the promise he showed at least as a rookie where you know, we'll see how year two goes this year. I am having a hard time making one of those cases where in Ty Simpson from Alabama would be the guy that is if you're going to make one of those arguments he would be the player. And it's interesting and I'm eager for you to watch him Robert, just because it depends on the timeline and the chronological order of how you watch his games. Because back in my mid season top 100 he was number two overall in,
- [23:38]
Robert Mays
in that we're listening to you guys in October and I was like oh man, here we go. Let's get on the Ty Simpson train.
- [23:42]
Dane Brugler
It was, it was hard to talk about him without like all right, let's not overdo this because he, his September 1st part of October was great. Georgia game, Vanderbilt, Wisconsin. Like those tapes to show a NFL starter doing NFL level things where then you watch November and you watch some of the later season stuff and it's like OK are falling apart. He's not able to elevate an offense that is deficient in the run game. The offensive line was a mess and he wasn't able to overcome that. And so some of those average physical traits became a little more amplified. And so I think with t with, with Ty Simpson some teams are going to be a little more optimistic. Some teams are going to be out completely not even think he's worth a second round pick. So I, his draft projection is, is all over the place at this point.
- [24:35]
Robert Mays
Do you so you had Tyler schuck as your 50th overall prospect last year. I believe in your, in your final top 100. Do you think that Ty Simpson in Last year's draft would you would rank him as a better or worse prospect than Tyler Schuck?
- [24:46]
Dane Brugler
First, I like Tyler Shuck as a prospect better than Ty Simpson.
- [24:51]
Dave Hellman
I love, I'll call myself out for the length of the draft process because I mean I was driving the Ty Simpson train up until like November and then last three games, the regular season and the post season, I was like, oh man, I got out over my skis here. But now that we're in mid March and you're just going back and watching cut ups and you can bounce around between three different games in 45 minutes,
- [25:15]
Robert Mays
you don't have to watch the bad movies, you can just watch the good ones.
- [25:18]
Dave Hellman
Yeah, I'm like, ah, there's still, there's a lot to like here if you can just sort of hand wave some things. But I think that's, I'm a little more drawn to this quarterback class than I thought I would be because I am a coward. And there are, there are lower stakes now. Like Mendoza is going to go one, that's fine. But like if Ty Simpson is a second round pick, if Drew Aller is a fourth round pick, if you could get Garrett Nussmeier late on Friday, I'm not saying that any of these guys are going to have amazing NFL careers, but like those are low stakes picks with some real upside in my opinion. And those are my favorite sorts of decisions to make.
- [25:55]
Dane Brugler
So what are you, in your opinion, what, what are the percent chances a non Mendoza quarterback becomes a legitimate starter in a league from this draft class?
- [26:08]
Dave Hellman
I wouldn't say good. I definitely, I like, I could see, I could see Nuss being like a very capable backup with like some spot starter ability, you know, and like, and having a pretty good NFL career because of it. Ty Simpson's probably the only guy that I would be willing to say I could see having like a legitimate career at a star as a starter. But like so much of that is just projection because we've only seen 15 games.
- [26:35]
Dane Brugler
But that's the thing, 15 starts. But that's, that's.
- [26:37]
Dave Hellman
But the good, the good whips ass. Like the good's really, really good. And so if he were to get into the right situation at the right price too, like I'm into that and like I said, I think that's mainly because you're drafting a guy with some very real potential without using a huge, huge pick because like I don't think I would draft Ty Simpson in the first round. I guess somebody might. But if, if you could get him in the 40s with a chance to grow into something over the course of his career and like not be a Day 1 starter in the NFL. I'm still pretty into that. I'm still, I'm not, I'm not completely backing off the Ty Simpson train.
- [27:17]
Dane Brugler
I think that's fair. I mean, a chance to. At that point in the draft, it feels like a worthy risk to take because you're right, there's a lot of good stuff on his, on his tape. The lack of starts is a big, big issue. Now obviously we've talked about this ad nauseum, but it's, it's a more unique 15 starts because he grew up the son of a 20 year head coach at the FCS level. So he grew up in a college program. Like, he's just a little more advanced mentally than I think most quarterbacks who only have 15 starts. And so it's just a really unique situation for him. But it's. We just don't have a track record of a quarterback with so few starts going in the NFL and really finding success over the last 10 years. The closest thing is like Mac Jones, you know, just obviously the Alabama connection. He had, I think 17 starts when he was drafted and you know, he's a backup and fringe NFL starter. So yeah, I think that with Ty, he's, he's a unique player that I wouldn't be willing to take in the first round. But yeah, once we get to the second round, then it's like, all right, this is a dart. Throw that for whether it's the Cardinals or whoever, whatever team might be, it makes a lot more sense.
- [28:33]
Robert Mays
We're coming off of a year, by the way, where there are a lot of example, two examples of. Even if the general draft industrial complex doesn't believe this is an elite player taking a dice roll on quarterback, the upside for it is so massive that you can talk yourself into it. That's exactly what Jackson Dart and Tyler Shuck are like. No one was sold on Jackson Dart and Tyler Shuck as like real answers at quarterback at the time that they were drafted. They were dice rolls. They. They were. You're taking a chance because the upside is massive. And I think both of those teams taking that chance, even with the Giants having to trade up a little bit, they're probably pretty happy with their ch. What is waiting for you on the other side if it works out, is so massive that I think it becomes a little bit easier to talk yourself into it at the same time going the other way. The Steelers I think are still probably scared off because of the Kenny Pickett thing. The idea of taking a guy in that range of the draft. And so we've got examples on both sides that cut both ways.
- [29:30]
Dane Brugler
Anthony Richardson, Will Levis, like those two guys in that draft. Like, you know, it's. It is definitely. Quarterback is such a complicated position to go through. And I think that we were hoping to see maybe Ty play at the Senior Bowl. And you know, he was banged up. I know. So we didn't get that. He was fine at the combine. You know, we'll see what he does at the pro day, but I think he's going to crush the interview process and that'll help his chances. But overall, this quarterback class, we mentioned Garrett Nussmeier, he was a guy that had NFL starting starter grades coming into the year, didn't play up to that level this year for lsu. But the injury was a big part of it. It was a core abdominal injury. How much are you. Is that a reason or is that an excuse? And so I think every team's going to look at that a little bit different. And then we get into the development guys or the backups. You know, the backups are your, your Carson backs, your Cade club, Knicks, and then the development guys that at least you can see some upside. Those are the Drew Allers from Penn State, the Cole Paytons from North Dakota State. So it'll be interesting to see after the first two quarterbacks come off the board and then even thus, when's that fourth quarterback come off the board? Is it. Does someone take a chance in the third round or do we have to wait till day three?
- [30:50]
Robert Mays
The running back part of this, just to kind of fill out the other side of like how free agency affected this a little bit and connecting the dots, like the idea that if Love's going to go in the top five, that's why Kenneth Walker and Travis Etienne get paid the way they do by teams picking in the back half of the top 10. And we also just saw I a little bit more urgency to find veteran running backs to plug into your running back room in the first 10 days of free agency. The trade for David Montgomery, Rico Dowdle, Javante Williams and J.K. dobbins both coming back to their teams. Kenny Gainwell. Washington has already signed two guys just in case I assume that Jeremiah Love doesn't get there. And so I think teams have shown a little bit of urgency in making sure they have answers there because that idea of, well, we'll just find one in the fourth round is not something that's going to happen in this draft in the way it could in previous drafts.
- [31:35]
Dane Brugler
Yeah, I mean I think the Saints and Chiefs making the moves they did was to me like in the moment my first thought was okay, they know Jeremiah loves not making it to 8 and 9 respectively. Now, I mean you never say never. The draft is the draft. But I think the league believes Jeremiah Love's going to go somewhere in the top seven. He's too good of a player, too good of a prospect. Belongs in that Bijan Robinson type of category as a, as a difference maker, both with his legs but also what he can do in the passing game. So you know, I think I, I did a mock the last day of the combine so three weeks ago and if I had to do one today, I wouldn't change the top five. It would be still be Mendoza 1, Arval Reese 2 to the jets, the Cardinals taking Maui Noah, the right tackle from Miami, and then Jeremiah Love going forward to the Titans because of the impact that he would make with Cam Ward and just the, the difference making difference maker he could be as part of that offense. And part of that is you're just. Where else are you going to find the difference makers if you're, if you're Tennessee and especially at the running back position. This draft, it just, it doesn't have those guys. Jadarian Price, the other Notre Dame running back, probably going to be that second running back drafted most likely second round, maybe somewhere in the top 75. We've never seen two running backs from the same school go one, two off the board. So that'll be, if that happens, that'll be history. And then when's that third running back come off the board? Is it Mike Washington? Is it Emma Johnson, Nebraska? And how early does that happen? So, and there are some guys in rounds, four rounds, five that are, that are interesting and you know, can find a role and maybe even make some type of an impact as a rookie. But you know, it's, it's a harder bet to make because the, there's, we're talking about them as day three picks for a reason and whether they're limited in an area, third downs or whatever the reason may be. There's something about them that I think is going to hold them back at least initially in the league.
- [33:41]
Dave Hellman
Dane over under Friday night, three rounds are in the books. Over under three and a half running backs off the board.
- [33:48]
Dane Brugler
I'll take the over just because I think someone will squeeze one in there, another one in there. So I think maybe four go in there. Obviously Notre Dame. Notre Dame. And then I do think Mike Washington, man, the way he, this pre draft process has gone. Did you see his three cone by the way, Hellman?
- [34:07]
Dave Hellman
No, I haven't but I was actually watching, I was watching Keldrick Falk tape a couple nights ago and I just kept my eyes just kept going to Mike Washington just bowling people over. What was his 3 cone?
- [34:19]
Dane Brugler
6 1, 223 pounds and he was a 6, 9, 63 cone. So I mean he's, it's just checking the boxes. It was a 4, 3, 340 at the combine.
- [34:28]
Dave Hellman
That feels like a top 100 pick to me.
- [34:31]
Dane Brugler
That's what I'm saying. Like I, that's somebody I think will and he's a great K kid too. Like he started at Buffalo, then when New Mexico State and worked his way up and you know, played really well for a bad Arkansas team but their offense had some juice. So I, I would take the slight over in that scenario but I still don't think it's going to be, you know, five, six running backs.
- [34:55]
Robert Mays
The Seattle Seahawks have the 96th pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.
- [35:00]
Dane Brugler
Wrestle it in.
- [35:01]
Robert Mays
All right, let's take our first quick break and then come back and keep chatting through my idiot's look at the 2026 NFL Draft.
- [35:09]
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- [38:12]
Robert Mays
All right, Dan, this next one is music to my ears. It's a team that cannot rush the passer and has three picks in the top 60. But according to you, this is a good year to be collecting edge rushers. You have six guys between 29 and 54 in your top 100. So I mean that's just the fact that that area of the draft that like late first into the second is filled with all these guys and I think one of the coolest connection points you can make is look at Seattle and where they found their edge rushers. Boy Mafe Derek call both second round picksu was originally a second round pick. And so, so the pool players available in this draft kind of falling in line with the way the best teams in the league have been building over the last couple of years. Something to keep in mind as we start digging into this thing, we're going
- [38:59]
Dane Brugler
to see probably three pass rushers come off the board in the top 15, maybe even top 10. Arvell Reese, David Bailey, Ruben Bain. And then it gets interesting to see what the order is going to be as they come off the board in the, in the back half of round one and then rounds two, rounds three, because it's, you know, pick your flavor. It's what type of pass rusher are you looking for? Are you looking for the linear explosive guy? You're looking for more, someone that plays with power, someone that can rush down the middle, some of the versatility, upside. So it really just depends on the type of pass rusher you want. And that'll depend if you're going to be a our Mason Thomas guy from Oklahoma or a Zion Young guy from Missouri. And so that, that more so than talent level is going to impact the order. These guys come off the board, but I think they're all going to come off the board pretty early. I think I had 16 of them in my top 100 and they're a case to be made for a few others that should have been in there as well. So we're going to see these guys fly off the board pretty quickly. And I, you know, you point to the last two super bowl winners, the Eagles, the Seahawks. The pass rush was such a big part, off the edge with what they wanted to do, staying fresh, keeping a steady rotation of those guys. So collecting edge rushers is going to be a common theme, I think, in a top 100.
- [40:22]
Robert Mays
What's interesting to me, and again, I think a lot of these guys typically fall outside of the range I'm about to talk about. But it still jumped out to me. Even if the flavors are a little bit different, the skill sets are a little bit different. There aren't a lot of small guys in your top 65. Like all the edge rushers that you have in your top 65. I don't think a single one weighs less than 250 pounds. And even that, that is the guy that you just mentioned from Oklahoma who's six one Thomas. And so that, I mean, that's when you think, think about the frame, I mean that's still like a thick dude. And so, and a lot of those DPR guys that fall under that, that are your 235, 240 pound guys. Those guys often do fall further into like the third round. But the idea that you really have none of those players and it's all these bigger bodied guys in your top 65, I thought that was interesting. Like there's really no undersized, bendy speed guys as part of this discussion. Discussion.
- [41:10]
Dane Brugler
Well, and that's why Texas Tech fans asking me why Romello height is not higher in the top 100, it's because he's 235, 237 pounds. You know that that's how he plays. And that's, that's fine. There's a room for you in the NFL, but you're probably not going to go in the top 60, top 75 picks because of that, because you're going to be more of a role player in whatever team drafts you. But no, I think that's a fair point. All these guys, you know, but there's also a reason we're talking about some of these guys as second round picks, early third round picks. You know, there's, there's, there's holes in, in part of their games. And so I think that'll, that'll be interesting to see how teams factor that in. You know, that'll, you know, a guy like Cassius Howell from Texas A and M, where does he fall compared to a guy like Malachi Lawrence from ucf? Like two guys that can get to the quarterback, but they do it in slightly different ways. And one did it at ucf, one did a Texas A and M. And so I, I think it's a really fascinating conversation when you try to stack these guys and you know, I think you can and the two smartest scouts in the world when it comes to scouting pass rushers could have two very different stacks. When we look at this group as a whole, I think one of the most intriguing edge rushers is someone that Dave mentioned earlier, Keldrick Falk from Auburn, who is in that Mikel Williams mold where he's the youngest player in the draft. He's big, he's a former top recruit. He's, you know, he, you, if you watch his highlights, if you see the best stuff that he does, you see the ability to rush the passer. He's not overly twitchy and like that's just not his game. But he can win with power, speed to power. The way he was utilized a lot of inside the tackle where he's not asked to rush the passer. You know, we had this conversation last year with Shamar Stewart and the ways he was asked to play. So he's just a really talented player, but a lot of differing opinions around the league. Should he be the 15th pick or should he be the 35th pick? There's just a lot of. A lot of different opinions about Falk.
- [43:14]
Dave Hellman
I think I love this. I really love this edge class. And that's not to say that they're all great or that they're all going to be great, but it is. It's. It's just such a buyer's market of body types and rusher types and the way that you can try to fill this thing out. And I know know you can get in trouble trying to extrapolate too many lessons from the team that just won the Super Bowl. But I remember we talked about this on a show with Derek recently, Robert, where like, you need, like, ideally, I mean, at least five, if not like eight of these guys like the Seahawks have. And so I've come to a place where I'm just like, okay, can this guy fit into the puzzle? Can he be a piece of this for me and fill a role? And it's so tempting to be on the lookout for that Micah Parsons twitchy freak who can get you 12 plus sacks in a season or ideally even more than that. And yes, that is the ideal. But again, in a year where those guys don't really exist, I am enjoying the challenge of trying to find guys that can fill certain roles for me. And they're littered all over the place. Depending on the type of scheme that you run or the type of player that you're looking for, there are so many guys that are worth getting excited about. I mean, let's just keep talking about him, Dan. Cause it's Keldrick Fox seems like one of like, everybody hates Keldrick Falk. Nobody likes this guy. And if you were drafting him in the top 10, I understand those concerns. But with each pick after that, like starting probably in the late teens and then getting all the way down into the second round between the frame, the age, what you see on tape as like a run defender and what you hope he could grow into, if this guy's just a big, badass run defender who can grow into being some piece of your pass rush, that's pretty exciting to me. And so I feel like I enjoy the challenge of trying to figure out how these guys fit. I think the fact that I know I'm not looking for that freaky 16 sack edge rusher, it. It makes this process a little more Fun for me. Like, I'm really enjoying watching these guys.
- [45:20]
Dane Brugler
And Falk is a high character type of guy too. Like the quotes I get from Auburn are just like, all right, give me something bad. Like this is too, sounds too good to be true. Like he, he, he gave part of his nil earnings to help a walk on teammate. Like he's, he, like I said, he's the youngest player in this draft, but he was also the most vocal leader on that team. Like, so there's a lot of things I like about him, but I, and I, I want to go even beyond the top 100. I, I, cause I think there's, I have over 30 draftable grades on edge rushers this year. It's just a loaded, loaded group. And so even fourth round, fifth round, there's going to be some complimentary pieces that I think are going to help round out rosters and, you know, give you something off the bench. So some of them are more high upside dart throws, others are, you know, high floor, you know, just not going to be more than a role player but still give you valuable snaps. Like that's, that, that's something that's going to be valuable in this draft. So top 100 strongest, but also on day three, we're going to see some pretty solid edge rushers come off the board.
- [46:26]
Robert Mays
Dave mentioned saying puzzle pieces and using that as a visual to think about this I think is good because if the guy's a little bit warped and weird looking and doesn't give you perfect edges, but he fits together with the other pieces that you have, that it starts matters less. And so again, we can get a little bit too reactionary when it comes to looking at the team that just did this. But when you look at what Seattle is, and I don't think that they're the only example, I think about how the Rams have built their front over the last two years. I think there's plenty of team where you can just see the way they think about the different pieces and the way they think about the individual skill sets among that group and not how they exist in isolation, but how they exist in tandem with the other players that they have. I think that's a smart way to think about building your defensive front. And by all accounts, with what you guys are saying, this is the type of year to have that sort of mindset when thinking about the prospects.
- [47:16]
Dave Hellman
I don't want to, I don't want to hear that you're not interested in a guy because he might not ever be a 10 sack player with any regularity. Like I like that's so boring to me.
- [47:25]
Robert Mays
And there are six sacks in the Super Bowl. I don't give a shit.
- [47:29]
Dave Hellman
Dane, I, you, you've talked about this guy plenty. We talked about him on the show. I've been, I spent some time this week going back and watching Gabe Akis out of Illinois. Tell me you don't want that guy on your team. Like the motor is insane. He plays with such a like violent demeanor and like, and, and like there's definitely stuff you can work with there too. Like it's not to say he could grow into way more than you think, but even if, even if like the, the baseline is relatively low, just as like a motor guy, I love it. I love watching the, the demeanor that that guy plays with. And if you tell me that he's only a five or six sack player, I don't give a shit. Like I bet you he could be a really productive piece of a good passer up rush.
- [48:13]
Dane Brugler
He's gonna, Gabe Akis will be this year's version of like a Nick Scorton, you know, that type of passion where yeah, a solid player as a rookie and then by year two, you hope he's a good player and then, you know, see where it goes from there. But yeah, Akis, I mean the way he can marry his feet with his hands, with his eyes, you know, he's, he holds up in the run game, violent use of hands. He's a workaholic. You know, it's all the feedback, character feedback. This is high on him. Four year starter, former wrestler. So yeah, there's a lot that kind of check the box, check the box. And like I said, even on day three, a guy like Cade Curry from Ohio State, who was a big part of that Buckeye's defense this year, who doesn't get mentioned nearly as much as the other guys. But someone's going to draft him in the fourth round and he's going to end up being a pretty valuable role player for whoever takes him. So yeah, we could spend a lot of time just talking about this edge class.
- [49:09]
Robert Mays
I mean the couple guys we did not mention by name. Akeem Mezador is your 19th overall player from Miami. TJ Parker is your 36th overall player from Clemson. And so, so a lot of guys to be thinking about. Again, if you happen to root for a team who has three picks between picks 28 and 60, you might be paying attention to the edge guys. And the last point about this, you also have five defensive tackles going between 24 and 60 in your top or that you have in your top 100. So we could have up to 20% of the total picks in the first two rounds be used on defensive linemen, which feels like a notable thing to think about as we get a little bit closer to the draft. Let's keep rolling through these positions. The wide receiver class, also a ton of depth. You said you could make a case for 20 of them. Dane in your top 100. And we're really talking about different flavors and body types here. I mean, just, let's just stick to the guys at the top of the draft with this discussion. You got Carnell, Tate, Jordan, Tyson and Makai Lemon are your top three receivers in this draft. I mean, Tyson and Makai Lemon potentially going in the same range of the draft. If you look at who they are, what they're bringing to the table, I mean, this is all going to be about what type of player you want want again, not in a vacuum, but how that skill set fits your offense.
- [50:23]
Dane Brugler
Right. And it's. I remember texting you in October and I rarely do this because I know you don't care about.
- [50:34]
Robert Mays
I don't care.
- [50:36]
Dane Brugler
You don't care in October, but like, because your focus is on, you know, on the NFL and not necessarily what might be coming down the pipe. Spike. But I was, I don't know why. I think you guys were just talking about something on, on the show and it made me think.
- [50:52]
Robert Mays
It was the idea of how like inside out versatility and like.
- [50:56]
Dane Brugler
Okay, yeah, yeah.
- [50:57]
Robert Mays
We did a show about essentially how Puka JSN guys like that were reshaping the way that we think about elite wide receivers in the NFL, what it means to be an elite wide receiver in the NFL.
- [51:07]
Dane Brugler
And that's, that's where, okay, Makai Lemon might fit in that category because of how, how dynamic he is inside, outside. And he might only be a four or five athlete. That's what the quote unquote official 40 time was, was 45 0. But he is so good. It's. It's the almond Ross St. Brown and it's, it's a very. I think some people are going to be a little too high on him because they're going to overcompensate for missing on Almond Ross St. Brown like we all did. While. While I think it's okay to be excited about when you watch Makai Lemon and you see how physical he is to the catch point and how good he is maximizing yards after catch, he's just a Tough kid who is not going to blow you away with the physical traits, but receiver specific traits. That's where you know, I just keep coming back to the Rams at 13 and like how much fun that would be to add him into that offense out of here.
- [52:06]
Robert Mays
We don't have to keep doing this.
- [52:09]
Dane Brugler
Why not keep doing this? But like, okay, but it's.
- [52:13]
Robert Mays
I would be so annoyed if I were a fan of another team. And every single time we have this discussion, whenever a cool player comes up, it's just like, let's just put them on the Rams.
- [52:21]
Dane Brugler
The Rams are the, the Ravens. That's what we always seem to do is yeah, but look, this is a receiver class that doesn't have that. I don't think none of these receivers. I have a high as high of a grade as I did McMillan last year. So that's just a. Something to keep in mind. Now I still think they there's quality receivers in this draft that can go top 15. Carnell Tate being wide receiver 1 Ohio State who really came on this past year. He was a big time vertical threat but can also work underneath. He's a really good route runner. That was the biggest jump he made from 04 tape to 05 tape was how detailed he is as a route runner, how more reliable he was in terms of the timing and the cadence and catching the football. An elite sideline guy as well. So I, I think with t team like The Browns at 6, you know, maybe I don't think the Titans would go that direction especially after free agency, but I think teams in the top seven include the commanders in there as well. You can make the argument that Carnell Tate is the best option for us at this point. So I, I think, you know, he's going to come off the board quickly. And then we mentioned Makai Lemon. Jordan Tyson's a little bit more difficult because of the durability factor. All the injuries he's been working through and even into this draft process, you know, it was a hamstring that bothered him throughout the year and then, you know, it's kind of spiked a little bit during training. He wasn't able to work out at the combine. He's not going to work out at the pro day. There's a hope he can maybe run some routes before the draft, but we'll, we'll find out about that as we get closer. And so he, he's a guy that has missed a lot of time over his four years in college and that's, it's hard to understand how Much to factor that in. But based just on the table, I, I, I, to me, I see a guy like Stefan Diggs who can create his own separation. He can win at the catch point. There's just a lot to like about him. And so these are three really good receivers at the top. And then I don't think it stops there because that Omar Cooper Jr. Is right there after them. You know, mentioned Denzel Boston from Washington. So yeah, this is a good receiver class where we're going to see six or seven go probably in that first round.
- [54:36]
Robert Mays
I was looking at just this year compared to last year. And the, the first point I wanted to hit is. But there's probably no TMAC in this group. Right. And that's exactly said. And so you had 13, 13 went in the top 100 last year. 13 receivers. You have 20 in your top 100 this year. So what I wanted to ask you if we remove the TMAC part of this conversation, you had Matthew Golden, I think is your like 15th player in last year's draft. Do you think, as you're thinking about those 20 guys in the top 100, do you think the bigger cluster is closer to the Matthew golden side of things or do you think it's closer to like, like the Jaylen Noel, Jaylen Jaden Higgins range last year for you, which was your 45th player, I would
- [55:18]
Dane Brugler
say Golden, I mean the Golden Ibuka. Like yeah, I, I think that's, that's pretty good then.
- [55:22]
Robert Mays
I mean that, that's, I think that says a lot about this group. If that's, if we have a ton of them and they're shading closer to that direction.
- [55:29]
Dane Brugler
Right, exactly it. And it's not to say that like this is a, we were just maybe spoiled a little bit when we had, you know, the, the Marvin Harrison, Malik, Neighbors, Roma Dunes, they all go top. You know, it seemed like every year we had some guys at the top. Last year with, with McMillan, it seems like this year it's just like, okay, who's that next top 10 receiver where we don't necessarily have a no brainer that should go that high, but they're still, yes, absolutely, quality receivers that should come in and make an impact early on. And, and like I said, it's not just those first three guys. Omar Cooper Jr. Is right there. KC Concepcion from Texas A and M, you know, he just had a knee scope and so, you know, we'll see how much that affects where he's drafted. But he's a dynamic player who is, you know, needs to Clean up some of the drops, but he's explosive with the ball in his hands. So this is receiver class that even into, you know, rounds two and three, there's really quality players that can give you something different based on. If you want an outside guy, a slot guy, someone with more return experience, like, there's just some. A little bit of something for everybody with all these wide receiver needs around the league.
- [56:36]
Dave Hellman
The theme for this draft really is it's okay to just be a good, good, because that's like, just justice for just good football players. I don't know if any of these guys are special, but I, like, I'm. I am in the process of going back and revisiting some of these guys, and I'm just like, yeah, I don't. I don't see the problem. These are good football players.
- [56:56]
Dane Brugler
Dave, give me an example of one of those receivers outside, like. Like those guys we mentioned. That kind of fits that bill for you.
- [57:04]
Dave Hellman
Okay. I'll give you. I. I have to bring this guy up. I know it's a bit for me, and we already did it. I just want to say. I'll plant my flag and say.
- [57:11]
Dane Brugler
Say.
- [57:12]
Dave Hellman
I don't. I don't buy the hate on Boston at all. Like, I don't. I do not see him. And I know he didn't run a 40. I know people are worried about his speed and his separation. I see it when I watch him. Like, I think he's just fine for a guy his size. His hands are so awesome. And I just. I don't view him as, like, a plotting player. I just don't like having. Having gone back and watched him. So I think. I think the hate on him is overstated. I don't know what that means for where he'll get drafted, but I'm comfortable with his movement and separation. And then another guy I wanted to highlight is a guy that you're a big fan of who. I think it's. This outlines my point perfectly. He's six one. He runs just shy, like, just under a four. Four five. There is nothing overly special on paper about Jeremy Bernard.
- [58:02]
Robert Mays
Jesus.
- [58:03]
Dave Hellman
You know these guys by their measurements. You sick, sick man. Jeremy Bernard's just a good fricking football player, dude. Like, just go watch him play. I love how smooth he is. I love how effortlessly he kind of changes direction. He's very, like, he just glides with the ball in his hand. Yeah, he's. He's just a good, useful football player. I don't think that gets people excited, but if he gets drafted mid, you know, midway through the second round. I don't think that would be terribly surprising and I would probably be excited for the team that picked picked him
- [58:35]
Robert Mays
in Dane's top 100. The first sentence about Jeremy Bernard is, at the risk of sounding obtuse, Bernard is just a good football player.
- [58:42]
Dane Brugler
That's exactly it.
- [58:43]
Dave Hellman
There's, there's no trait that's going to jump out to you when, when you turn him on, like when you turn on his games. But he's just out there producing, looking like he knows what he's doing.
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Robert Mays
All right, before we move on, let's take one more quick break.
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They accept Discover at Renaissance Fairs?
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- [61:22]
Robert Mays
Stick with the pass catchers here, the tight ends this year. Dan, you, you have everyone who will listen that you're running out of space for the amount of draftable tight ends that you have in this year's group.
- [61:32]
Dane Brugler
Crazy.
- [61:33]
Robert Mays
You got five in your top 100. But let's talk about what that means when you say so. Let lay out the actual facts of this because you're tweeting about it the other day and I couldn't find the tweet. Essentially you're. How many draftable tight ends do you feel like you have? You seems like you're, you're adding another one every time you watch somebody or every time you finish an evaluation on somebody.
- [61:51]
Dane Brugler
I have a draftable grade on 25 tight ends and five more that are just fringe guys where if I get depend depending on my situation, I could see them, I could see drafting them. So it's just a deep, deep group. And a lot of these guys are not top 100 players. They're just useful players that it's like, okay, that will work on an, in an NFL offense, whether it's because you know what they do in line, whether they, you know what they can offer as a, as a combo tight end. There's just a lot of, a lot of different ways some of these guys have. It's more about upside. It's more about, about okay, they didn't show a ton in college. But you know what, I feel really good about these traits. And he was in an offense that didn't use the tight end very well. And there's more here. So, you know, it's just a really deep group with a lot of names and not all these guys are going to get drafted. There's just not enough spots on rosters for every all 25 of these guys to get drafted. But they are draftable players and it's just, I don't think I've ever had 25 draftable grades on a, on a tight ends in any class I've ever done.
- [62:59]
Robert Mays
So it's 25 total draftable grades. You have five in your top 100. Are we talking about the other 20 as like fifth, sixth round picks? Are we talking about some of the other 20 and a chunk of them is like fourth round picks.
- [63:13]
Dane Brugler
I would say it's probably half and half, like half in that fourth, fifth, the other half, six, seven. It's pretty evenly spread out.
- [63:21]
Robert Mays
It's a fascinating time for this to be happening just because. God, think about all the conversations Dave, we had over the course of the season about how tight ends have just shaped the NFL over the last few years. And I think there's so many different reasons for that. Right? It's just having being able to dictate by personnel the how important blocking tight ends are to what you want to do. I mean this really was like a year of the tight end in the NFL. And so Dane, the fact that that's dovetailing at the same time when we have 25 guys that you think are worth drafting, I wonder how coincidental that is. I wonder how cult. I wonder how much of that is the pipeline of players coming from college to the NFL. You don't you hesitate to make like sweeping proclamations about any of this given in a one or two year sample size. But the fact that those two things are coming together at the same time is interesting. Whatever the conclusions may be, it really is.
- [64:10]
Dane Brugler
And I don't there's probably a little bit of truth in all of what you said, you know, like. But it's part of it is this is a common theme that we have to remind ourselves and everybody is just this is what the college game is giving us. Right? This is just what this year is giving. And that goes for the top 10 of this draft and it goes for a position like this that is super loaded on day three where you've got a Riley Nowakowski where if you when you watch Fernando Mendoza and you when you watch his. His tape this year, you will not be able to watch it without noticing Nowakowski at tight end and how impactful he was as a blocker and then as a kind of that safety net for the quarterb. You know, you throw on BYU when you watch Carson Ryan who was a combine snub. But this guy is going to go. He, he needs to be drafted because he's a good player. So up and down this tight end class there are. Whether it's because what they offer in the passing game as a blocker, both there, there's something to them that's I think teams are going to look at and say all right, this is good. This can be our third tight end. And is it a, a Jackson ha type of reaction maybe for Some, I don't, you know, but I, I think it's just a good tight end class.
- [65:28]
Dave Hellman
I just love the juxtaposition of. Most people view this as an underwhelming draft, and I just know evaluators and coaches are so excited about the, like, the number of like, day three tight ends where they're like, oh, my God, this guy can play on three special teams units and, and in a perfect world, he can unlock our 12 personnel and we can do 21 with him doing this or 22, like, whatever. Like, he can do six different things for us. And he might only touch the football four times in his rookie season, but they're just going to be so excited to add him to their football team.
- [66:06]
Robert Mays
And the counterbalance to this is that as we have all these tight ends, we're going to need safeties to worry about all these tight ends. And you have seven safeties in your top 100.
- [66:16]
Dane Brugler
Dane. It's, it's a, it's a good safety group and it does stretch into day three. And these guys are a little more specialized or, you know, like the H1 has their own specific set of strengths and that's going to one, one. It's like a guy like Genesis Smith from Arizona will be a third rounder for one team and off the board for another just because he doesn't really fit the exact type of safety that they're looking for. So it's a little more of a specialized group, but there's a lot of them. And I think for the right fit, the right situation, teams can upgrade what they're, what they're looking at with their safety position.
- [66:56]
Robert Mays
Just out of curiosity, Genesis Smith is your 72nd player. You've got 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 guys between 23 and 70. How many starting safeties do you think are available in the first two days of the draft?
- [67:10]
Dave Hellman
I wonder where this question is from.
- [67:15]
Dane Brugler
Yeah, I mean, we're probably looking at six or seven.
- [67:17]
Dave Hellman
Okay, great.
- [67:18]
Robert Mays
Great.
- [67:19]
Dane Brugler
I mean, I. Chicago could use one of these guys maybe in the, in the second round. I, I think. Well, yeah, I think in my, in my mock, I had them taking, I believe, AJ Hy from, From Dave's school down there at lsu, who. There's a lot of Kevin Byard there, so I think that that was a potential. But yeah, we mentioned Caleb Downs, but we, we have to mention Dylan the. And McNeil Warren from Toledo, who are two more safeties that likely go in the first round and are just really, really fun players to watch with how they can impact the game. And so it'll be interesting after Caleb downs when those next two guys come
- [67:58]
Dave Hellman
off the board, which, I know I'm putting you on the spot, Dane, but we do this every year. Like, Dylan Thinman lit the combine on fire. We talked about it plenty. It's easy to sit here and say, oh, he, he ran his way out of Chicago's draft range. Do you think that's actually true? Or again, I mean, like it or not, positional value comes into play. Like, do you think he's definitely a top 24 pick?
- [68:23]
Robert Mays
I guess he was 23 on Dan's board before the combat even happened.
- [68:26]
Dave Hellman
Yeah, no, that's, that's my point. I mean, I, I, I think a lot of people expect him to be like 18, you know, picked 18th or better at this point.
- [68:34]
Dane Brugler
I think the draft range for him is probably 12 to 26, something like that.
- [68:40]
Robert Mays
Wow.
- [68:41]
Dane Brugler
Yeah. Like, if the Cowboys want, I mean, I guess maybe some of the frequency moves they made, maybe they don't go that direction at 12, but I, I think that that's where we start to talk about him is in the teens where we could see the realistically come on off the board. So, yeah, I, but I, I wouldn't come away saying, yeah, he's definitely going top 18 or top 20. So especially the safety position. Brian Branch, 16th player in that draft, and I didn't think there's any way he would fall out of the first round. He felt like the mid to late
- [69:11]
Dave Hellman
second and so still dumb to this day.
- [69:14]
Dane Brugler
Weird. I know. So I, I, when it comes to the safety position, I'll never really feel good about putting a cap on. You know, I don't see him falling
- [69:22]
Robert Mays
past X pick, last position to get through here just very quickly. You said you could see more offensive linemen drafted in the first round than any other group, but it's a flawed class. As you even get into the back half of the first round for those tackles and there's a huge fall off after the first round by a flawed class. And this may be a multifaceted answer. Are we talking about guys who are toolsy but raw? Are we talking about guys who might be solid but a little bit limited athletically? Like, where are those flaws rooted in this offensive tackle class? Even if a bunch of them might be drafted in the first round, in your opinion?
- [69:56]
Dane Brugler
I think guys that, for example, I think the top two tackles, Francis, Maui, Noah from Miami, Spencer Font from Utah, they're both college right tackles who some teams have on the board as guards because. And it's not because they can't stay outside. It's more if we're going to really maximize what they could be as pro players, let's move them inside and just let them flourish. And different teams think differently about that. Some are very steadfast on, let's let them fail outside a tackle. But like Spencer Fano to me is he might be the biggest wild card in this draft because his arms came in at 32 and an eighth at the combine. And it's going to be fascinating to see what the arm length is at the pro day because if it comes closer to 33, then all of a sudden it's we're talking more about him as a tackle for some teams. And there's a lot of teams in that top 15 that could use an upgrade on the offensive line. But these guys are not your Joe Alt, you know, the prototypical left tackle. And I think about Cleveland when we talk about this conversation, additions they've made on the offensive line, they still are missing that left tackle and I think ideally that's what they would fill at that sixth pick. But is the right guy there for them? And you know, Monroe Freeling from Georgia is a really toolsy player. You know, like the Colton Miller comps make sense for him, but it just feels like a reach to take him as early as six. But if you're thinking long term enough and you really like the tool schools, okay, you know what, roll the dice. But it still feels like a huge projection at that point. Kaden Proctor from Alabama is just an unbelievable physical specimen. 360 pounds. He jumped over 32 inches in the vert. Like just rare, rare explosion. But why aren't you a more consistent football player? You know, do we need to move you inside the guard just to keep you from being stressed out in space?
- [71:57]
Robert Mays
Space.
- [71:58]
Dane Brugler
Then you have Caleb Lomu from Utah who was the left tackle when Fano was at right tackle. But he's more of that Monroe freeing level in terms of just needs to get stronger, needs to develop more. Like he's just not quite ready to face NFL pass rushers. So all these guys there, there's something about them that gives you pause. More so than ideally you would want when you're talking about drafting them in the first round. But I think they're all going to go. I mean I think all seven are probably going to go in the first round and then there's a big drop off after those seven. When I say those seven, I'm talking about Maui, Noah Fano, Freeling Proctor Lomu, Blake Miller and then I Max Ian Heure from Arizona State. So these guys are all project as starters, but there's again there's something about their profile that gives you a little bit of pause about taking them in the first round.
- [72:52]
Dave Hellman
Hey Dane, real quick because we have literally breaking news about this subject. Mike Garofolo saying that Spencer Fano got up to 32 and 7/8 inches at Utah pro day.
- [73:05]
Dane Brugler
There we go.
- [73:06]
Dave Hellman
That's all the difference in the world, baby.
- [73:09]
Dane Brugler
Well, we this happened last year with Will Campbell where the the combine was shorter arms goes to the pro day and it's longer. Now the one thing with FO that I felt okay about with that arm length was his wingspan was over 80 inches. It was 3 inches longer than what Will Campbell's was last year. His was just over just over 77 inches. And you could argue that wingspan's more important than just strictly arm length when we talk about offensive tackles. So look, Spencer Fano had the best workout of the all the offensive linemen at the combine. The movement skills, the just his ability to move in space and hit the bags. All that stuff. All the feedback from scouts was just glow about this kid. The interview process was awesome. So I there are teams in the top 15 just looking for a reason to take this guy and coming in close to 33 inches with the arm length will certainly help. All right.
- [74:09]
Robert Mays
Hopefully my education about this draft class is helpful for the rest of you as we fully dig into this. We've got a full month of draft shows coming your way starting today. Really, really digging into it next week. Very much looking forward to how the next month is going to go all the way to our live draft show which we are doing again, blowing it out. It's going to be great. For now that is all we got. Sincerely appreciate you guys listening. We'll talk to you very soon.
- [74:48]
Dave Hellman
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