The Athletic Football Show: Building the Beast – Dane Brugler's End-of-Season Mock Draft

Episode aired: December 3, 2025
Host: Dave Hellman
Guest: Dane Brugler

Overview

In this packed episode, host Dave Hellman and draft expert Dane Brugler break down Dane’s highly anticipated first mock draft for the 2026 NFL Draft. The discussion covers realistic trade scenarios at the top of the draft, key QB prospects, team needs, and the overall talent landscape of the class. They also preview conference championship weekend in college football, focusing on prospects with draft implications. The tone is energetic, candid, and full of expert insights, with plenty of banter and honest evaluation.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Challenge of an Early Mock Draft

• Context:
  • Dane notes the inherent difficulty of putting together a December mock draft when so much is unsettled: the draft order isn’t fixed, underclassmen have not declared, and coaching/front office changes loom.
  • Quote (Dave, 05:17):
    “Trying to do a mock draft on December 3rd is like trying to find a needle in a haystack that is on the back of a moving semi truck that’s going down the highway at 75 miles an hour and just stuff’s flying everywhere.”
  • Dane emphasizes logic and defendable reasoning for every pick, even acknowledging scenarios with trade “cheats” to make the outcomes more realistic.

2. Mock Draft Structure & Trade Scenarios (Top 10)

• Double Trade at the Top:
  • Both the Tennessee Titans (#1) and New York Giants (#2) do not need QBs, leading to plausible trade-downs.
  • Cleveland Browns and Las Vegas Raiders trade up to take Fernando Mendoza (#1) and Dante Moore (#2)—the perceived top QBs in this class.
  • Quote (Dane, 07:45):
    “With two first round picks in this draft and the state of the quarterback playing Cleveland, they’re going to be aggressive in this offseason... I did go with Fernando Mendoza because I think it’s a very logical fit when you think about this coaching staff.”
• Historical Context:
  • Dane references 2016 (Goff/Wentz) as a precedent for dual trades atop the draft.

3. Team-by-Team Draft Strategy (Top 10 Focus)

• Cleveland Browns: Aggressive move up for Mendoza to solve their QB woes.
• Las Vegas Raiders: Trade for Dante Moore after failing to solve QB last year with Geno Smith.
• New York Giants: Potential to pick up assets and move down to #4—likely targeting WR Carnell Tate, as they aren’t in the market for a QB or a clear top OT/CB at #2.
  • Quote (Dane, 13:34):
    “I struggled with the Giants more than probably any other team... The top 10 of this draft is just not very top heavy. The difference between pick at 5 and 25 is not as big as it has been in past years.”
• Edge Rushers Abound: Four of the top eight picks are edge rushers—Arvell Reese, Keldrick Falk, Reuben Bain, David Bailey—highlighting strong value at that position despite a relatively flat top tier.
  • Quote (Dave, 16:50):
    “For all we’ve said about the premium positions—lacking those sorts of players—I don’t feel that way about edge rusher... if you need defense, you’re gonna have a chance to get some quality edge rushers.”

4. Premium Non-QB Prospects Lowered by Positional Value

• Caleb Downs (S) and Jeremiah Love (RB): Two of the consensus best overall players, but their draft positions suffer due to positional value bias. Potential to slide outside the top 10.
  • Quote (Dane, 13:34):
    “You can make the argument [Downs and Love] are two of the three best players in this draft... but running backs and safeties don’t go top five in most years.”

5. Notable First Round Fits & Value Picks (Mid-Late 1st)

• LA Rams: Take OT Spencer Fano at #9, prepping for life after aging tackles.
• Cincinnati Bengals & Minnesota Vikings: Land premier talents (Caleb Downs and Jeremiah Love) just outside the top 10 due to role devaluation.
• Pittsburgh Steelers: Ty Simpson at #14—they’re “at a quarterback crossroads,” and Simpson is a classic upside swing despite lack of experience.
  • Quote (Dane, 43:48):
    “He graduated from college before he ever threw a touchdown pass... Ty Simpson will have a big decision, just like Dante Moore after this year.”
• Playoff Teams’ Value: Teams like the Chiefs (Kenyan Sadiq, TE), Bills (Denzel Boston, WR), Cowboys (C.J. Allen, LB), and Eagles (Vega Ioane, OL) get instant contributors at positions of need, showing the class’s quality depth.
  • Quote (Dave, 38:38):
    “From pick 12, I just start to get a lot more excited than I thought I would... there is value all over the place here.”

6. Mock Draft Trends & Team Building Insights

• This is a Draft for Depth:
  • The gap between the top-10 and late-first picks is much narrower than usual. Playoff teams can land strong prospects.
• Trade Back Demand Will Outstrip Supply:
  • Many teams will try to move back, but few will want to move up beyond the QB-desperate.
  • Quote (Dane, 13:34):
    “This is going to be one of those drafts where... every single fan base is going, ‘oh, we’ll just trade back, trade back.’ Nobody is going to want to trade up, except for maybe one or two of these teams who are looking after the quarterback.”

Memorable Quotes and Moments

• On Mock Drafting in December:
  “Trying to do a mock draft on December 3rd is like trying to find a needle in a haystack that is on the back of a moving semi truck...”
  — Dave Hellman (05:17)
• On Cleveland Browns’ Aggression:
  “With two first round picks in this draft and the state of the quarterback playing Cleveland, they’re going to be aggressive in this, this off season in terms of finding an upgrade at quarterback.”
  — Dane Brugler (07:45)
• On the Giants at #2:
  “I struggled with the Giants more than probably any other team when they were picking at 2...”
  — Dane Brugler (13:34)
• On Draft Depth:
  “If I’m a playoff team, I’m feeling pretty, pretty confident about how this first round could play out, and there’s not that huge gap between the top 10 to 12 players and then who you’re getting later on.”
  — Dane Brugler (35:18)
• On the linebacker depth for Dallas:
  “The linebacker play in Dallas has been pretty abysmal this year and you have to get better with two first round picks...”
  — Dane Brugler (39:53)

Important Timestamps

| Timestamp | Segment/Discussion | |-----------|---------------------------------------------| | 03:33 | Dane’s philosophy on building a defendable mock | | 05:17 | The futility of early mock drafts | | 07:45 | Cleveland’s aggressive trade for Mendoza | | 11:27 | Impact of front office/coaching changes | | 13:34 | Giants’ dilemma at pick #2; top-10 lacks star power | | 16:50 | Strength of the edge rusher class in the top 10 | | 22:33 | Rams’ need for offensive tackle, Fano pick | | 24:27 | Vikings’ QB dilemma and considering Ty Simpson | | 34:50 | Value for playoff teams in the late first round | | 35:18 | Dane on “gap” between players at different ranges | | 38:38 | Dave on value of picks 12+ and standout fits | | 39:53 | Dane on Dallas linebacker need, C.J. Allen pick | | 43:48 | Ty Simpson’s wild card profile for Steelers at 14 | | 49:53 | Ohio State vs Indiana CFB Championship NFL draft storylines | | 55:53 | Georgia vs Alabama preview and draft implications |

College Football Conference Championship Weekend Preview

High-Profile Matchups for Draft Evaluators

• Ohio State vs. Indiana (Big Ten Title)

• Storylines:
  • Massive NFL scout attention—potential record first-rounders from OSU.
  • Must-watch for evaluating Fernando Mendoza (potential #1 pick) under duress.
• Key Prospects:
  • OSU: Arvell Reese, Sonny Styles, Caleb Downs
  • Indiana: Roman Hemby, Eliza Surratt, Carter Smith

• Georgia vs. Alabama (SEC Title)

• Draft Impact:
  • More immediate playoff seeding consequences than Big Ten.
  • Ty Simpson can raise his stock further with another big performance vs. Georgia; Monroe Freeling (UGA OT) highlighted as a riser.
• Historical note:
  • Alabama leads Georgia 10–1 in their last 11 matchups; this is Kirby Smart’s persistent obstacle.

Additional Notable Moments

• Dane jokes about Detroit Lions drafting Kaden Proctor for Dan Campbell due to his eligibility as a jumbo TE/fullback (“Just show him the Duncan package!” — 35:10).
• Discussion on why the drop-off after the top 10 picks isn’t a cliff in this class, with teams in playoff positions getting “playoff-ready” pieces.

Episode Takeaway

Dane Brugler’s early mock draft highlights a 2026 class defined by high variability at the top, a premium on quarterbacks and edge rushers, but remarkable depth and value throughout the first round. Teams should feel optimistic about finding starters and even stars well outside the top 10. The episode blends deep scouting, real-world NFL decision-making, and the context of college football’s shifting talent landscape, giving listeners a true insider’s look at the draft process as it ramps up.

Don’t forget: Check the full mock draft on The Athletic for every first-round pick and fit—especially if your team is drafting after the top 10.