Podcast Summary: The Athletic Football Show — Building the Beast: Did They Stay or Did They Go Now?

Episode Date: January 14, 2026
Hosts: Dave Hellman & Dane Brugler

Episode Overview

This episode focuses on the critical period leading up to the NFL underclassmen declaration deadline and the looming College Football National Championship game between Indiana and Miami. Dave Hellman and Dane Brugler provide in-depth discussion and analysis around major draft-eligible players making their “stay or go” decisions, how NIL has altered the draft calculus, prospects returning to school, and preview the national championship matchup. The episode also covers surprising declarations, notable returns, and the changing landscape of college football and the NFL draft.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

The “No Man’s Land” of the NFL Draft Calendar

• The episode is recorded the day before the NFL underclassman declaration deadline and six days ahead of the Indiana vs. Miami national championship (01:48). The hosts acknowledge their analysis may quickly become outdated as declarations are made.
• Quote — Dave Hellman (03:57):
  “We’re so close to having a pretty complete picture of this 2026 NFL Draft class, but not close enough. We’re stuck right here.”

The Dante Moore Decision: Stay at Oregon or Declare?

Context & Impact

• Dante Moore, Oregon’s star QB, is the biggest name left undecided regarding the NFL draft. Oregon’s Peach Bowl loss to Indiana intensified speculation.
• Moore could go top 3 in the draft, but lucrative NIL money from Oregon/Nike complicates the decision (06:00).

Draft Stock & Evaluation

• Quote — Dane Brugler (09:39):
  “Based off how NFL scouts talk about him, they still think he’s going top three... Even with some concerns, you talk yourself into it because of X, Y and Z. With Dante Moore...some of the natural accuracy, just the poise that he plays with…he’s only 20 years old.”
• NIL reduces the urgency to leave college: Moore could receive around $5 million to stay (06:00), possibly becoming a better prospect for a more favorable draft setup next year.
• The hosts emphasize the difference NIL makes, the risk assessment between declaring now (as QB2) versus waiting for a more crowded 2027 QB class (11:53).
• Return scenarios: staying means another loaded Oregon offense, better development, and not rushing into a possibly volatile situation like the New York Jets (13:31).

Memorable Moment

• Quote — Dave Hellman (17:22):
  “A lot of time for Dante Moore. There’s another guy also who, as of right now, has made the opposite decision... Ty Simpson declared for the draft last week, and as of right now, that stands.”

Scarcity, Opportunity, and the Changing QB Landscape

Ty Simpson and Other Notables

• Ty Simpson declaring (Alabama), but schools are trying to lure him back — the quarterback “musical chairs” continues (17:22).
• Simpson most commonly paired in mock drafts with the Steelers in the 21–23 pick range (18:10).
• Both Moore and Simpson have low career starts (Moore: 20, Simpson: ~15), which presents risk; few QBs with under 25 college starts have succeeded in the NFL (16:33, 22:26).

Notable Quote

• Dane Brugler (24:31):
  “NFL teams thought for sure this draft class was going to be a much better quarterback class than last year. Now they’re thinking the same thing about next year—it should be, but there’s no guarantee of that, you know?”

NFL Draft Declarations: Notable Prospects

Recent Underclassmen to Declare

• Connor Lew (Auburn, C): Talented but coming off an ACL tear; young and athletic, but likely a center-only in the NFL. Possible Day 3 pick (30:30).
• Chase Bisontis (Texas A&M, OL): Multiple spots on OL, strong day-two prospect (32:13).
• Monroe Freeling (Georgia, OT): Athletic upside, likely top-50 player, seen as NFL-ready (34:05).
• Kenyan Sadiq (Oregon, TE): Could be a top-15 pick if he declares, with strong NIL incentives to stay; his decision affects tight end rankings significantly (35:01).
• Max Claire (Ohio State, TE): Declaring, likely top-50, brings good athleticism and YAC ability (39:32).

Notable Quotes

• Dane Brugler (31:46):
  “He’s a three year player, still very young... but I don’t think that [Lew] is a lock for the first two days.”
• Dane Brugler (38:34):
  “I think [Sadiq] goes somewhere in the top 25. I just don’t think it’s a lock he’ll go top 15…”

Surprise Returns and Their Impact

Key Names Returning

• Oregon’s D-line: Amari Washington (DT) and Mateo Uyungale (DE) both return despite likely day-one or two draft projections (41:55).
• Trevor Goosby (Texas, OT): Stays for another year—tipped to be among the top tackles in 2027 (44:02).
• Edge & Skill Players: Quincy Rhodes (Arkansas, Edge), Damon Wilson (Missouri, Edge), Justice Haynes (Michigan, RB), Eric Singleton (Auburn>Florida, WR) all return or transfer for another year (47:54–50:55).

Notable Quotes

• Dane Brugler (43:03):
  “I guarantee you Washington’s getting paid over a million dollars. So now he’s got the best of both worlds. He can go back, be a college kid, be developed, be a better player while still being a millionaire.”

The Influence of NIL and the Transfer Portal

• Top programs can retain NFL-ready players due to NIL opportunities, fundamentally changing “go pro” calculus (41:55).
• Transfers/portal movement allow athletes to chase fit, immediate playing time, or preferred setting (Texas loaded with incoming talent, 45:25).

National Championship Preview: Indiana vs. Miami

Playoff Surprises, Parity, and the Broader Landscape

• Both hosts remark on the unexpected title matchup and the unpredictable, exciting nature of the new 12-team playoff (54:22–55:19).
• Possible new normal for parity in college football as talent spreads out via transfer portal and NIL (55:19).

Matchup Analysis

• Indiana: Led by likely No. 1 draft pick Fernando Mendoza, showing LSU-2019-like “locked-in” dominance down the stretch (59:14).
• Miami: Defense must force Indiana into “behind the sticks” third-and-long situations (57:03).
• Multiple future NFL prospects are set to feature (see “Key Prospects” list below).

Notable Quotes

• Dane Brugler (59:14):
  “It’s a fair point...once you get past Ohio State in a very tightly contested game...it just feels like [Indiana] unlocked something. Mendoza’s been playing his best ball. The defense has been flying around at a level that I would argue wasn’t always the case.”
• Dave Hellman (54:39):
  “Go look at the preseason expectations versus what we’ve got in this game right now...It’s been a very fun season.”

Prospects on Display (66:23)

• Indiana: Fernando Mendoza (QB), Carter Smith (LT), Omar Cooper Jr. (WR), Elijah Sarratt (WR), D’Angelo Pons (CB; top-10 CB, likely Day 2)
• Miami: Akeem Mesidor & Rueben Bain (EDGE), Keonte Scott (DB), Maui Noah (RT), Carson Beck (QB; possible Day 2/3)

Final Championship Picks

• Both hosts give the edge to Indiana but expect Miami’s pass rush to give them a real shot (68:10, 69:59).
• The game is projected to be more competitive than the current 8.5-point spread (68:30).

Notable Quotes

• Dave Hellman (70:27):
  “It’s either going to be the greatest rags to riches story in college football history or the revitalization, the return of the most exciting program in the sport.”

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “If he goes back to school, he’s going back to a really good situation…All his receivers coming back, the running backs are coming back, maybe except for Noah Winnington.” — Dane Brugler on Dante Moore (13:31)
• “Stop telling me about future draft classes. Let’s just play some football and see what happens.” — Dave Hellman (25:22)
• “Quarterbacks get the top billing. But I did want to talk to you about a few other notable names…” — Dave Hellman, pivoting to declaration news (25:48)
• “Amari Washington going back is surprising. I think he would have been a top 25 pick if he came out.” — Dane Brugler (41:55)
• “I don’t know if we’ve ever seen a turnaround like this for a program that just was a historical doormat …and just the way it was turned around in two years, back to back playoff appearances.” — Dane Brugler on Indiana (69:00)

Timestamps for Major Topics

• 01:48: Setting the stage — “No man’s land” of draft deadline and championship week
• 06:00–17:12: Deep dive on Dante Moore’s decision, NIL implications, and draft stock
• 17:22–26:00: Other QBs’ decisions (Ty Simpson, Chambliss), low-start QBs and risk analysis
• 29:26–40:40: Notable underclassmen declarations and evaluations (Connor Lew, Chase Bisontis, Monroe Freeling, Sadiq, Claire)
• 41:55–50:55: Surprising returns, transfer portal movement, prospects returning to school (Oregon DL, Goosby, Rhodes, Wilson, Haynes, Singleton)
• 54:22–69:59: In-depth preview of the Indiana vs. Miami national championship, changing playoff/college landscape, player matchups, and predictions

Final Thoughts

• This is a transition point week: draft classes are solidifying, and the college championship should feature some of the NFL’s most discussed 2026 draft prospects.
• The NIL era has upended traditional incentives, leading to higher-caliber talent returning to school and greater parity at the college level.
• The hosts predict an Indiana win but anticipate a production-rich, high-stakes championship to cap a season defined by unpredictable movement and decision-making.

For listeners wanting a comprehensive, nuanced view of the modern NFL draft cycle and its intersection with college football’s new realities, this episode packs expertise, up-to-the-minute news, and some candid host banter about what makes this “no man’s land” week so pivotal.