← The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL
The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL
Buy or Sell Their Offseasons: The Contenders
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Robert Mays
Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays. Before we get into today's episode which is our buying or selling contender off seasons, just a little bit of housekeeping. Our Merch competition Merch Design Competition is currently ongoing in at the Athletic Football Show Discord. We are accepting designs ideas. We have a whole competition going about what you guys want the Athletic Football show merch to look like and so if you want to be involved in that, please join the Discord. Throw your hat into the ring. We would love to see the creative stuff that you guys are bringing to the table. That competition is be going through the early June is when it will close and then we will start the voting on the winner. So you still got a couple of weeks to get involved if you want to. If you encourage you guys to do it. If you are interested in joining the Discord at all, we would love to have you. It is a constant ongoing football conversation essentially 24 hours a day, 365 days a year. It's a really fun community that we've started to put together and if you want to be involved and chatting with and being in touch with like minded people who are thinking about football in a certain way, I do think it will be a fun, hospitable place for you. So encourage you to join the Discord even if you not even if you are not going to be involved in the merch design contest today. Me and Derek buying or selling the contenders. It's interesting because I think that in a lot of ways the rebuilding teams and the teams near the bottom have the more interesting off seasons because they've done more. But the set of conversations that we had today I think were probably my favorite that we've done over these four shows. And so really enjoyed digging into the teams at the top with Derek today. Let's get to it right now. Wrapping up our buying or selling off seasons series today with the contenders, the teams at the top, the teams that, let's say, have the most realistic goals and hopes of winning a Super bowl before anyone complains. Just putting it out there right now. This list is derived from the super bowl odds on one of the gambling platforms. I'm not even going to tell you which one, but it is one of the gambling platforms. It is taken straight from there. So if you have any issue with how we have bucketed the teams, including the ones that we're going to talk about today, you can take it up with the people who make dots. I've completely removed myself from the process.
- [03:59]
Derek
I already saw in the Discord this morning talking about the other show where the playoff hopeful show where it was like, I can't understand X teaming over X. And it's like, we didn't do that. I'm. It's not me, it's Vegas. I'm willing to blame Vegas and gambling for a lot of problems.
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Robert Mays
So there's no clean way to do it. Absolutely no clean way. The one thing I'll say about the odds before we dig into the teams among all of the teams on this list being surprised by where their super bowl odds are relative to the others around the NFL. I think the Chargers is the most surprising. The Chargers being like, firmly in this list and a pretty far cry away from the Jags, the Bears, you know, some of these other teams that just kind of made the playoffs and then lost last year. I'm a little bit surprised that the Chargers have so much more, like, institutional faith behind their 2026 chances than some of these other teams.
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Derek
Okay, so that's what I was going to ask. Were they just eighth and that's just where we cut it off, or were they actually closer to these teams in the odds? Cause that's interesting to me. And like, there are, there are flaws with teams like the Jags and the Bears and all that but, like, they won 12, 13, 14 games last year,
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Robert Mays
so they have equal odds. It's kind of just where we cut it off. But the teams that we're going to start this show with, we're going to go kind of in reverse order, same way we've done with most of these shows. The Chargers have the same odds as the Chiefs, the Patriots, and the Niners. They all have the exact same super bowl odds, based on the outlet that I'm looking at right now. And there's part of me that wants to be like, man, that seems aggressive. But there's also another part of me. Two things. One, we'll talk about the Chargers and maybe why there's reasonable optimism around them. Two, after the Patriots thing last year, when I looked at their over under win total and I was like, that doesn't seem right. And then they went to the Super Bowl, I'm just not going to talk about that stuff anymore. Like, if the odds. Look, if the odds seem far removed from what my expectations are, I should recalibrate my expectations.
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Derek
I should. Yeah, I should at least rethink some things a little bit. The Patriots one was funny. Cause last year, too. Cause I ended up in a spot where I was like, I think the defense might be good again. And. And I also love Drake May. And then I looked at the over under, and I was like, absolutely not. No, not doing that.
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Robert Mays
And that might have been it. The fact that you were scared off by it. And if anyone in America would have been fully bought in that isn't living in the greater New England area, it would probably would have been you. And even you had your reservations about it. And so maybe that's why I was more tepid than I should have been about the Patriots. But I was gonna say, I won't make the same mistake about the Chargers again. Everyone listening to this show knows that I won't make the same mistake with the Chargers.
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Derek
Everyone in our job has making this same issue with the charges for a decade now.
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Robert Mays
It's going to be so fun when this is the year where it's actually worth going all in. And this is the year where I'm like, I don't know, a little bit rich for me. All right, let's dig into this. Let's start with The San Francisco 49ers, who are lumped in at the exact same level when it comes to your bull odds on that list to the Los Angeles Chargers. Coaching changes. Raheem Morris in as the defensive coordinator. Veteran additions, Mike Evans, Christian Kirk, couple offensive line Depth pieces Brett Toth, Robert Jones on defense, Oso Digizua and Dre Greenlaw is back. Losses Kendrick Bourne and Jordan Elliott out the building in free agency in the draft. DeSean Stribling in the second round, Romello Heights and Kaylin Black in the third round. Are you buying or selling the San Francisco 49ers 2026 off season?
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Derek
I'm buying as much of it as I can get. Like I interesting.
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Robert Mays
I don't mind that stance, but being that enthusiastic about it, what what puts what gets you there.
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Derek
So part of it is like I think this team is just already really good and was just ravaged defensively last year. And so merely getting some of those guys back I think is going to get them into a good spot. And so that's not any anything they did necessarily. But I really buy the way that they reloaded at wide receiver both for tomorrow and for three years from now. Like tomorrow you've got Mike Evans who is I think immediately becomes an X receiver of that caliber that they haven't had in a long time. I think Kirk can still give you decent depth if he's a guy who is a little bit healthier. And then getting Stribling, who we talked a little bit around draft time, is a play for the future, but also just a play at a guy who can give you a little bit more yak. And I think especially if George Kittle is not going to be 100% early in the year, having someone who can give you a little bit of that I think is potentially nice. And then I think on the offensive line they have insulated themselves from pretty well with all the a lot of the draft picks that they made. They also signed Robert Jones to be like guard depth for them. And so I still have concerns about like what is the ceiling of this offensive line, but I think they've at least protected themselves from like worst case scenario sort of situations. And then the defense is in a weird spot where it's sure they go get Oso de y Zua. I think Romello height can be like a decent like third down past searcher for them and stuff. But really the additions mostly are just getting Fred Warner and Nick Bosa back. But the thing that I will say about that, in addition to again some of the other additions they made with Oso Digizua, I think the secondary is playable. It's just that last year the front was so bad you never got to see it. If the front's kind of good, I think the defense can be kind of good. And so I'm just, I'm bought in on almost everything that they did, even
- [09:12]
Robert Mays
some of the depth pieces they added like Jack Jones and Nate Hobbs. If they were your starting corners on day one, you probably wouldn't feel pretty good about it. But if they're just depth guys that if they'll need to play cause somebody else got hurt, I think that's something that you can live with. And I mentioned them like Robert Jones didn't play last year, but in 2024 thought he had some moments with Miami where it's again, if he's your swing into your offensive lineman, that's fine. And I actually thought Brett Toth played okay last year when he had to for the Eagles. And so I, I do think they've insulated themselves pretty well at several of these spots. And I'm with you on the secondary. I think there were two issues with the Niner secondary last year. One, the front was an absolute mess and two, they were just extremely young. And so now you have guys that are in year two. You know, I, Malik Mustafa was hurt for a good chunk of last year before coming back and so you had to be playing, you know, Marquis Siegel probably earlier than you wanted to. Overall, I think they're in pretty decent shape. I'm wondering how do you feel about the Raheem Morris part of this? Oh, and what it's potentially going to look like because going back to Salah, like we know that we're living in the same general family even, you know, Wilkes was kind of a four down guy. Even if he was a little bit more blitz happy. You know, Salah lives in that world. Raheem Morris, it's been a little bit more flexible than that. He's done a bunch of different stuff in his stops as a defensive coordinator. That part of it, I don't think it's the a bad decision or the wrong way to go with who you hired to be your defensive coordinator. I'm just curious about what it ultimately looks like.
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Derek
I would guess this is a situation where, because Raheem Morris has been so amorphous over his, his period really since he left Tampa Bay such a long time ago that I think it will look very similar to the style of defenses they've ran previously, like the d' Ameco Ryan, like the Robert Sala and part of that is just body types.
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Sponsor Voice
Right.
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Derek
Like on the edge.
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Robert Mays
You committed to this world.
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Derek
Yeah, they, they can't really live in the Jalen Walker, you know, James Pierce, where these guys can drop, they can Be these like wide nine, like they're just, they're kind of boxed into it. And so I, I think Robert, I think Raheem Morris is a fine defensive coordinator. I think they probably lose a little bit in terms of Salah not being in the building. But if that is gained back in the talent that they're getting from Warner being back, Bosa being back, trading for Oso Digizua, I don't think this is going to be an elite defense by any means. But if they can be in the top third ish of the league in a, in a, in a pretty good outcome and then the offense is what it is every single year. This is again a team that can win the NFC west.
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Robert Mays
Cut in on it. I'm worried about the fragility of it, but what can you really do about that, like with all of these teams And I do think that they're more susceptible to this than and X team. Right. The idea of like, well, if they get hurt, they're not going to be as good as they want to be. Obviously you can say that about every team. But with the Niners specifically, Mike Evans is deep into his 30s, has dealt with injuries, Trent Williams getting older, started to get banged up. We know with Ricky Piersol, George Kittle was somebody that's consistently been banged up. When is he going to be back? And so I do think the offense overall is pretty fragile. But when you're in the spot the Niners are in, where it's like we're just trying to win the super bowl with this build, I think swinging for the fences and being willing to live with the potential downside is a totally fine mindset to take into the off season. So I, I, I'm into this. Like, I, I do think that they, when you think about where they were on January 1st and where they are now, I think they have positioned themselves well.
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Derek
Right. And, and again, part of this too is just like they were a really good football team last year that just got like a little bit unlucky. And so I'm, I'm pretty bought in on where this team's going.
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Robert Mays
Nick Bosa and Fred Warner being your two best off season additions, I think is a fine place to be. That's exactly where they are. Let's get to the Kansas Eric B. Enemy back as the offensive coordinator after whatever you want to call that situation. With Matt Nagy additions on the veteran market, Kenneth Walker in free agency, Kyrus Tonga, Alohi Gillman, Cater Kohu on a very small deal, I assume just A fight for that nickel position. Losses in the veteran world traded Trent McDuffie, Brian Cook and Leo Chanel leave in free agency in the draft. Mansour Delane and Peter woods in the first round are Mason Thomas in the second round. Are you buying or selling the Kansas City Chiefs off season?
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Derek
I think I am tepidly buying it and I think part of how I had to get there was you kind of have to reframe that. This probably is a soft reset year for them. Like they are actually accepting that it's a little bit of a soft reset with, you know, I think when, when Dallas made the Micah Parsons trade, right, it was a lot of like we're giving up a player so that we can rebuild the entire defense in a different image. The Chiefs kind of did that with the Trent McDuffie trade where they get multiple picks back, obviously get a first round pick and it allows them to draft Peter woods at 28, 29 or whatever that was going to be. In addition to the Tonga signing, which we've talked a little bit about, those two kind of being a. You can maybe start to play a little bit more odd fronts. You have a lot more juice up front than you had previously. Obviously. They also drafted our Mason Thomas. The secondary is also completely retooled. I have some issues with how they handled the season, the off season on offense. Like I would have liked to have done something else at wide receiver. Like I think not doing anything there until you had a fifth round pick I think was a little bit questionable. But I think overall I kind of like, I don't even quibble with the Kenneth Walker signing because I think if you're not going to have Mahomes and you didn't have explosive players anywhere else, getting a running back who can give those to you I do think is a fine signing. So I'm on like tepid buy for what, for. For what the Chiefs did.
- [14:41]
Robert Mays
When it comes to available resources like money to throw around this offseason specifically, I don't think there's any more effective and efficient way to use your dollars to find explosiveness than signing Kenneth Walker in free agency. Like what $14 million a year receiver is going to give you the explosiveness that Kenneth Walker is Nobody, probably nobody.
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Derek
And even some of the receivers that you would have paid a little bit more than that are not necessarily explosive guys like Romeo was not really going to give that to you if you were paying a little bit more for that, like I guess Wanda Robinson. But like do they need another 5, 9 player I don't think so. Like, I just, you know, I think
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Robert Mays
that the Kenneth Walker, I completely understand the mindset behind it. And again, we, we talked about this a lot on multiple different shows this spring. But when you look at, and I know Ken Walker isn't Jameer Gibbs, but when you look at what Jameer Gibbs has paid or some of these other really explosive backs that are giving you, even Derrick Henry, right, Like even Derek Henry is in this conversation where if you have a back that's going to give you, let's call it 15 to 20, 20 yard plays over the course of the season and you're paying him $14 million a year, that's really good bang for your buck when it comes to paying for explosiveness. And for this team specifically, it's exactly the type of skill set that they needed that I'm in. Like, I don't have no qualms, no quibbles with that whatsoever. I'm with you on the receiver thing. I just am frustrated on. Even if you're a little bit more explosive, what is it going to look like when it's third and seven and teams are playing man coverage against you and you need somebody to get open, is that player on the roster? And not even just somebody to get open, but even if the guy's not open, somebody that you can pin the ball on, on third and seven on the outside, like, do you have that player and they still don't have that guy. And combining not seeking out that skill set with my concern that by bringing Eric B. Enemy back, are we just going to have an offensive staff that's rubber stamping everything we've seen over the last few years, it's hard to eject that stuff out of my mind. All of that being said, the defensive remake and the thought process and how they've gone about this overall, I still think I'm buying it. Even if I have a lot of reservations about not a lot. Even if I still have some lingering reservations about what the plan on offense has looked like.
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Derek
And I'll say too, my offensive issues extend a little bit to like tight end. The fact that they didn't invest at all in tight end when you, I mean, Travis Kelsey is a year to your thing at this point and even the guys they have behind them are kind of just role players. And so I was shocked that they did nothing there. Like I every team in the league
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Robert Mays
drafted a tight end in the second round, right?
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Derek
And they couldn't find a way. Like I just, it's crazy. And so I again, I probably would have tried to have thrown at least one more of their other premium resources on the offense, but it is a little bit hard to say that like at the same time where I think a lot of the stuff they did on defense was, was interesting. Like I talked about the retooled secondary. You, you probably put in Mansour Delaine for what you were getting out of Trent McDuffie. Not necessarily the same quality, but that's where you're going to play him. Alohi Gillman is coming in for Brian Cook and then signing Kate Arcohu and getting Shamari Connor out of the nickel I think is a nice thing for them because part of my, part of my complaint with McDuffie being out of the Nickel wasn't just that McDuffie I thought was like an S tier nickel instead of like a B plus level outside corner. It was that the drop off from him at nickel to what you were getting out of Jamari Conner, where he's more comfortable at safety, was just massive. And so I think being able to shuffle that around and just get more bodies where they ought to be playing I think is a really nice thing for them. So I'm again, I think the front is going to look different. It's a really retooled secondary. You don't know how it's going to play out. But I think I trust Steve Spagnolo enough to get a lot out of a unit. And I think there is an element of last year, obviously the defense was not super talented, but I think you also saw a lot of Spagnolo stuff start to fall flat in a way that it had not. And so I actually think injecting like demanded creativity and new enforcing new ideas because the personnel is going to be so different. I'm excited to see what that looks like for them.
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Robert Mays
Just trying to cut these problems off at the pass and like get straight to the point rather than like, ah, we'll kind of play around, around in the margins here and see if we can get there. That's what the Mansour Delaine thing is to me. And it was surprising based on some of the pre draft conversations just because so many people went back to this idea and I don't blame them saying, well the Chiefs just don't really do that at corner. You know, the Chiefs have gotten by with these third fourth round picks and they've turned them into really good players and I that's totally fair. But when you think about what the Chiefs defense was at its best over the Last few years, it was when they had the type of cornerback play where they could just walk into a game against a team like the 20, 23 49ers and be like, hey, you.
- [19:21]
Derek
Yep.
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Robert Mays
And not messing around to get back to that place. I completely understand that thought process. And so I'm excited about it. Like, the things they did on defense, I look at it, I'm like, I get the vision here. I do think that this could be very cool by the time we get to the end of it. And on offense, even if there's still some of this stuff that's kind of hanging over it, there's part of me that's like, eh, if the quarterback's healthy and the pass catchers are healthy and the offensive line's good and they're a little bit more explosive in the backfield, they'll probably be fine. They'll be frustrating in the same ways maybe, but they'll probably be fine.
- [19:53]
Derek
They'll probably be fine. They might be slow until week seven, eight, or whatever it takes Mahomes a few games or whatever, but like, even if last year's offense was just average in terms of like running back explosive, the offense would have looked so different.
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Robert Mays
And I thought you were saying that. I thought you were saying. I thought you were saying that it was.
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Derek
They were talking about her, like worst or second worst in terms of running back explosive. That's what I'm saying. If they're just paying to be average there, it changes the entire math for the offense.
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Robert Mays
Yeah, I, I'm, I'm into the Kenneth Walker part of this, even if I have some questions about the rest of it. But I do think that with that skill set, even with some of the other limitations, they'll probably end up in a decent spot. All right, let's take our first quick break here and then come back and chat a little bit about those Los Angeles Chargers we mentioned earlier.
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- [23:14]
Robert Mays
Chargers off season Mike McDaniel and is the offensive coordinator. Chris O' Leary is the defensive coordinator. I kind of feel bad for Chris o'. Leary. Like no one has talked about him the entire off season because every single bit of oxygen about the Chargers coaching staff changes are solely about Mike McDaniel, which I think is fair. We'll talk about why, but that seems to be that place. We've reached with this team additions Cole Strange and Tyler Bishop on the offensive line. Charlie Kohler, Keaton Mitchell, Alec Ingold All Coming over Dalvin Tomlinson for about 6 million bucks on the interior of the defensive line. Losses on the veteran market. Adafe Owe zion Johnson, Benjamin Saint Juice, DeShawn DeSean Hand in the draft. Key Mezador in the first round, Jake Slaughter in the second round, Travis Burke as tackle depth and then Genesis Smith throwing another body at safety, which we thought they might do even a little bit earlier in the draft. Are you buying or selling the 2026 Los Angeles Chargers off season?
- [24:13]
Derek
This is a team that I consistently complain about not making enough swings and I still feel that way. I still feel like they did not go out and make like a superstar swing really hardly in any way. But when you hire a guy like Mike McDaniel and do start to build the offense in his image, like you bring in Alec Ingle, you completely retool the offensive line. I think in a way that is interesting, you bring in Keaton Mitchell. Like, I think the offense can finally be what it has meant to be for, for a long time. And so I think they did end up setting themselves up to, to get onto this path where you can hire a guy like McDaniel and it's going to be pretty good. And I think I'm excited about it obviously for Justin Herbert reasons. Right. Like, seeing a guy like Justin Herbert In a Mike McDaniel offense, I think is going to be fun. I think seeing o' Marian Hampton in an offense like this is fun. Like he was the guy where him and Genty last year just getting bludgeoned behind horrible offensive lines. But in those, it's terrible. But in those like two or three instances in a game where they got a shot, you were like, oh shit, that guy is like a really, really talented. And so being able to see as much talent as they have at quarterback and running back with hopefully a better offensive line, hopefully healthier and just a better scheme to help those guys. I'm super bought in there. Obviously losing Minter on defense sucks, but I think they've made a lot of the right moves on defense to try to kind of hang around in the same general area if they can.
- [25:38]
Robert Mays
What makes you say that?
- [25:40]
Derek
I mean, I didn't love Akeem Mezador, but I understand the idea of trying to get a guy who can immediately give them like solid edge three play right away. I think drafting Genesis Smith in the fourth round, where I will say if there's anything that concerns me about this team, is that I don't love the safeties. The safeties scare me a little bit. Like the Tony Jefferson story is cool. That that just feels like that's something that you should not be betting on. Week one going into any season. And then Elijah Mulden is fine, but I don't think like a super difference maker. And then we saw last year when they had to dip into their safety depth. It was a huge issue for them like when RJ Mickens was on the field, like taking a lot of bad angles, missing tackles. And so for a defense that, you know, I don't know exactly what Chris o' Leary is going to do in terms of is he going to look just like Jesse Minter? I assume it wants to be in a similar ish build. And so if your last line of defense in a defense like that is going to be a little bit of a problem, I am mildly worried about how that's going to go.
- [26:39]
Robert Mays
Buying it mostly because of the McDaniel thing. Like, I just, I, I buy into that being if you. Okay, we do. We've done this with every team. Why are you going to be different? You tell me why is that?
- [26:51]
Derek
It's easy to see on offense. Yeah.
- [26:53]
Robert Mays
Is that a satisfactory answer? It's. This is a satisfactory answer as to why the things that torpedoed your season at the end of the year might not happen again. I'm in the offensive line is definitely still a theory in terms of what the interior is going to look like. I feel like we're in a place schematically that mitigates offensive line play. They can get by with a little bit less. I would not be surprised at all if the combination of the tackles getting healthy and the three moves that they've made on the interior is enough to not only survive but be in a really good place In a Mike McDaniel led offense, even if for a lot of other teams and a lot of other situations. I maybe have some more questions. I think they've done enough there. I'm wondering, the boost that you're going to get on offense with the new play caller and with some of the new talent, how much of that do you need to offset what is likely going to be at least a small step back on defense considering you're swapping out one of the best defensive coordinators in the NFL for an unknown. Even if you're excited about him and you didn't do anything, it's the same collection of players. And so if one's getting yanked one way and one's getting yanked the other way, where do we settle? And is the offense improvement enough to offset whatever a small Step back on defense might look like I'm open to the idea that it is. Like, I absolutely think that when it's all said and done, you're in a place where you feel very good about this team's ability to compete. And I just wonder where those two end points eventually end up.
- [28:24]
Derek
Think the reason I'm at least willing to buy it is that we've seen the last two seasons and I know the defense has been good over those last two seasons, but we've seen their season completely come to an end because the offense exploded like entirely. Like could not be on the field with other good NFL teams. And I think them pretty clearly like moving themselves off of that path. If you at least give yourself a chance every week with a functional defense and a quarterback like Justin Herbert and a couple of playmakers like Aladdin and Omarion Hampton, you have a chance every single week until you get like deep into the playoffs. And so I think for that reason I am bought in on it. And obviously losing Minter is going to suck. I think if it was losing Minter and on offense we're going for a play caller that we're excited about but don't necessarily know a a whole lot and maybe they've only done it for a year, yada yada yada, I would feel a little bit differently. I am very confident Mike McDaniel is extremely good at the job and we'll get a lot out of the team that he has with him.
- [29:27]
Robert Mays
I'm 100% in agreement. And with the Chris O' Leary Jesse Mentor thing, it's not a criticism. Like you lost a really good defensive coordinator who's now a head coach. Like, just because the next guy is an unknown, that's not meant as a criticism. I think that's just what you're working through and kind of what you have to be thinking about when it comes to the expectations for this season. But overall I'm in. I think the McDaniel thing, plus it's not just the McDaniel thing. Like the ways that they've remade the offense and like the, the whole like the Charlie Cole or Keaton Mitchell of it all. Like I'm bought in on like what the vision of it is and what it is supposed to look like and I'm very excited to watch it. Let's get to our next one here. The New England Patriots. Zach Kerr, now the full time defensive coordinator after obviously dealing with the situation they dealt with last year. Additions on the veteran market, Romeo Dobbs, Elijah Vera, Tucker. I Forgot about that one. That, that. That's what. That's the biggest move I forgot about until I, like, went in and was going through all the depth charts. I was like, oh, yeah, that. That one should help. Julian Hill, Reggie Gilliam, Kevin Byard and Draymond Jones on defense. I guess we can include AJ Brown here. Did you? I kind of did.
- [30:32]
Derek
No, no, but we should. Right. Like, we should. Like, it's, it's probably going to happen. So I actually hadn't yet. And so we, we. We definitely should, though. It's, it's gonna. If we're doing that for the Eagles, right, like we were, then we should
- [30:44]
Robert Mays
do it on the Eagles. Let's just have this discussion as though AJ Brown is on the Patriots and then if we have to amend it later, we can. Losses. Clavin Chasin, Kyrus Tangra and Jaylen Hawkins gone in free agency in the draft. Caleb Lomu, offensive tackle in the first round. Gabe Y. Gabe AUS, Ed Rusher in the second round. Eli Radin, the tight end in the third round. Are you buying or selling the 2026 New England Patriots offseason?
- [31:08]
Derek
I think I can buy it. You know, obviously the offensive, the offensive line, I just mostly don't know what to do with, but they obviously have enough bodies to solve the problem. Like, I just don't know where Caleb Lomu is going to play. What they want to do with Will Campbell. Is Caleb Lomu going to play? Like, I think they have a lot of questions to sort out there, but I think if you have Romeo Dobbs being your, you know, kind of third down chain mover, can just be a consistent guy. You have AJ Brown, hopefully being AJ Brown and then K Sean Booty kind of being like this flex, third explosive guy. I think the offensive skill player positions are like just way, way fuller than they were last year because the offense was good last year, but that was mostly a product of having like talented running backs. Stefan Diggs was fine and then you just had a superstar quarterback, but they were getting away with that against worse defenses. I think now that they're going to have a different schedule, they're going to need to, to have some of these guys that they've brought in. The defense, I'm not sure what to do with because there is part of me that says, okay, Draymond Jones, Gabe Akis, you're clearly leaning into something here. And I like that. The Kevin Bayard move, I don't know, but I at least like over Jalen Hawkins. I mean, I don't know If I would have done that. But I at least understand what they're trying to do. And I also like year two of Kerr. You know, he was a guy who again, was not necessarily supposed to be their play caller. Last year really turned up the heat over the last like eight or so weeks of the season in an interesting way. And so maybe giving him another full season gives you something. The defensive tackle depth freaks me out a little bit and I do wonder a little bit about their corner depth. Like, it just feels like if a couple of things go wrong for this team, the defense could start to fall apart.
- [32:45]
Robert Mays
Interesting. I like they drafted Josh Farmer in the fourth round last year as an interior defensive lineman. Corey Durden gave them some like decent snaps last year. He was a street free agent. And that they're actually, it feels like going to be leaning on two of those guys. Like if you look at the moves that they made, going to get Akis while having Draymond Jones. Like you said, stylistically you're leaning into like bigger power players. Elijah Ponder was a street free agent for them last year that played a couple hundred snaps. He is that like 245 pound body type. It seems like he's going to get a decent amount of run based on how this room is built. And the same goes for Corey Durden. So they're really going to be leaning on a lot of guys that were day three and beyond acquisitions for them in last year's draft, which I get it. Like they, they, they played last year. They probably flashed enough for you to feel good about what they can do in bigger roles. But it's just an interesting set of bets for a team that was in the super bowl last year.
- [33:38]
Derek
Exactly. And so it might be fine. Again, some of those guys, like Durden and I think Elijah Ponder especially actually played pretty well as a role player. But Durden is one of those guys that like, I'm just not sure doubling his snap count because Tonga is going to be gone. Like that scares me a little bit, especially with how well Tonga played in the middle of that defense.
- [33:57]
Robert Mays
For them, the idea of we're going to, our best pass rushers are going to be our interior players and then we're just going to have a lot of pocket crushers. Outside of that, I understand that. Like I, I understand that as like an overall model and it seems to be that that's where they've gone with it. We talked about this a little bit with Hawkins. This is a team that played a decent amount of single high when you consider the league wide trends. And so if you're going to be a team that's playing with a single post safety a lot, having Kevin Byard be that guy where he doesn't have to come down and make plays against the run that often and you kind of have more defined roles between those two safeties with him and Woodson. I like Kevin Byard here in a way that I might not for a team that needs more interchangeable slave safeties in a and a split safety world. So I, I get some of your reservations, but I think that this could wind up in a decent spot. I believe in the offensive moves enough where overall I think I'm bought in on this. Like Obviously trading a 2027 first round pick for AJ Brown is an aggressive move, but you're in a spot where it might be worth being aggressive. You think about like premium positions, they probably do need one more pass rusher. Like if as I move forward to like the 2027 draft, what is the spot where when that pick doesn't happen we're going to be sitting there being like man, it would have been nice to be able to use this on X. Pass rusher is still probably the answer. But they've got two tackles, they've got receivers now, they've got corners. And so edge rusher is really as we're projecting into the future, maybe the one premium position you're not going to have access to. But you I actually kind of like this. It reminds me a little bit of the way we talked about Washington last year and I know that didn't age very well, but I don't think Washington's mindset about improving the offensive line in the way that they did as a way to kind of offset some regression was a bad thought process. I actually like that where it's like we're going to get better here and we're not just going to believe that if we stay the course we'll get incrementally better in the ways that we need to. The way the Patriots have handled their past catching spots kind of reminds me
- [35:55]
Derek
of that well and that's the thing with Washington is that Washington did all that with the offensive line and obviously Jaden Daniels gets hurt and that that has some amount to do with this. But like the Washington skill core just wasn't very good.
- [36:08]
Robert Mays
That wasn't the problem. Over indexing on offensive line additions is not what that wasn't the mistake that Washington made last off season.
- [36:15]
Stamps.com Advertiser (Alternate)
Right.
- [36:15]
Derek
The offensive line was totally fine and so looking at an offense now that I think New England's offensive line should be better with some of the additions they made, including Jared Wilson moving to his more natural position at center. I think that that should be pretty good for them. And so you're just so much bigger now.
- [36:30]
Robert Mays
Like if you, if you just look at the bodies across the board, you're just so much bigger now. And I do think that matters.
- [36:37]
Derek
And even with their sixth round pick that they made, Demetrius Crownover 6, 7, 3, 20. That's again, he's probably not, you probably don't need him to play this year or want him to play, but they, they clearly have on both sides of the ball. They, they want it to get bigger and so I, I like where they're, they're headed with that.
- [36:53]
Robert Mays
Obviously Jerry Wilson isn't like a massive hulking center, but he's a big enough center to have played guard last year. And then AVT is not a small guy. Mike and Wennu is one of the biggest guards in the league. And so the, the fact that they have these like bigger body types on the interior compared to the league average and then their tackles are if like I'm talking more about Campbell and Lomu like being like the tackles of the future. It's just a very strange collection of like offensive line skill sets and body types and strengths and weaknesses. I can't remember anything like it well.
- [37:25]
Derek
But it's like their defensive line too where it's like inverted where a lot of teams like they have. Yes, you got most, most teams want like your freaks on the edges and on the bookends and they've kind of built it the opposite where it's like, nope, spot as close to the football as we can get. That's where our stars and our big guys are. We'll figure it out. On, on the other spots is the
- [37:47]
Robert Mays
uncertainty about what Caleb Lomu is supposed to be? Is that coloring your thought, your opinion here at all? Like I, I got, I, I don't want to do this where when I don't like a player in the pre draft process when a team drafts him, I'm like, oh, I don't like that. Like I'm. There's a very good chance I'm wrong about that player and I think it should be more about the process of how a team sees him and how they're going to incorporate him as I judge whether it was a good or bad draft pick. But with this one specifically, it's coming from two different directions where I didn't really like Caleb Lomu and Also, he was a left tackle only in college and you just drafted a left tackle from last year. So how ultimately, even on a multi year level is this supposed to come together? Like if you want a red shirt Caleb Lomo for a year, that's fine. Like, I think that's a reasonable thing to do with an offensive tackle. But what are you going to do next year? Is he the right tackle? Is Campbell the right tackle? Am I thinking too much about this? Like, that's my only kind of lingering with that move overall and how it plays into the larger picture.
- [38:45]
Derek
I think I'm on both sides of it where I think with Lomu specifically it does freak me out a little bit that I have no idea what to do with it. Like it's. You can't really find a spot for him this year unless they end up saying they want to move Will Campbell to right tackle or like Vera Tucker was a tackle coming into the league and so maybe he moves out to right and Campbell slips into guard, Loma plays left tackle.
- [39:06]
Robert Mays
I don't know.
- [39:06]
Derek
The uncertainty freaks me out a little bit. But I will say I think the reason I'm. Even if I didn't love the pick, even if I don't love the move or at least I have questions with it, the other parts of their off season, specifically on offense, I buy so much that I'm like, I can. This is okay. They'll. The fact that they're like. The fact that the biggest question I have on offense is where's your first round pick at offensive line going to play, having that kind of depth? I'm like, it's, it'll be okay.
- [39:34]
Robert Mays
Yeah, it usually is. It's a good place to have contingency plans sticking the AFC east here. The Buffalo Bills. First thing I want to talk about with the Bills, you know, The Bills are 10 to 1 to win the Super bowl in some places.
- [39:46]
Derek
10 to 1 with a new head coach. That's kind of crazy. Even though like technically he's been in the building, that still feels like a lot for any team that is. Is moving to a new head coach.
- [39:55]
Robert Mays
The Ravens are too. The Ravens and the Bills are power.
- [40:01]
Derek
This is what we've talked about. It's the power of having one of those quarterbacks like you could almost.
- [40:06]
Robert Mays
I was so curious about this and I was like, when has this happened recently? Like, has there been any other head coach change where a team is like 10 to 1 or better? That's in like the top three or four in Super bowl odds. The, the only two that I like were kind of close. When Mike McCarthy got hired by the Cowboys in 2020, they were 12 to 1 that year to win the Super Bowl. And then the. I was curious, the Colts, year one of Jim Caldwell, like that was the only kind of similar situation I could think of. They were 14 to 1 in year one of Jim Caldwell when Peyton Manning was in Indianapolis and a lot of these other quarterbacks that are at this level, their coaches never changed. Right. We had, I mean, year one of LaFleur. We didn't know what the packers were going to be. There weren't any expectations over that with Rogers. Peyton and Breeze are there the whole time in New Orleans. And so we just haven't had this. And then Brady obviously had Belichick forever. So we don't really have coaching changes mid career in the last like 20 years for quarterbacks of this ilk. And so it maybe shouldn't be surprising that the chart like both the Bills and the Ravens are in this weird spot where they have these incredible expectations not only for first year head coaches, but coaches who were fired. Like, it's just a weird situation.
- [41:24]
Derek
Yeah, I, I don't know if I can remember at like maybe when the Steelers like changed head coaches like 20 something years ago, but even that doesn't really feel like that. And I don't know, like, I don't know.
- [41:37]
Robert Mays
They were very good that year, right? I mean like that's. They were very good very quickly. That's probably the best.
- [41:42]
Derek
That's probably analogous specifically because like it is like a in house thing, right?
- [41:50]
Robert Mays
Yeah. And that's. But that's another one of those things where the coach just moved on from a really good team. And so I think that makes it a lot, a lot more reasonable that a team would have like sky high expectations. So the Steelers. The Steelers were 25 to 1 in 2007.
- [42:09]
Derek
Okay. Really?
- [42:13]
Robert Mays
Yeah.
- [42:14]
Derek
Were they that bad in 06 or was it just the uncertainty of. Was it just the uncertainty of bringing.
- [42:21]
Robert Mays
They were 8 and 8 in 2006. In the last year under cower, 8 and 8.
- [42:24]
Derek
Okay then. I don't know. I can't.
- [42:27]
Robert Mays
It's a weird situation with both the Bills and the Ravens coaching changes. Speaking of, for the Bills, Joe Brady in as the head coach, Jim Leonard and as the Defensive Coordinator added D.J. moore, Bradley Chubb, C.J. gardner, Johnson D. Alford, Mike Dana on defense, lost David Edwards in free agency in the draft, TJ Parker and Davison Bonason in the second round. Are you buying or selling the 2026 off season for the Bills,
- [42:56]
Derek
I don't know.
- [42:58]
Robert Mays
This is a tough one.
- [42:59]
Derek
They're the one that I want to talk through the most, I think, because I think on offense, let's remove the. Whatever we want to say about the offensive coordinator moving to head coach, all that stuff, we can talk about that separately in a second. I think the moves they made on offense are fine. Like not paying Edwards, like, what they were going to pay him for at this point in his career. With what they had available, I kind of get it. And they insulated themselves. Okay. Like, Alec Anderson is already a guy who has played a decent amount of snaps for them. They sign Austin Corbett, they throw a bunch of draft picks at it. I get what they were doing there. Bring in DJ Moore. I think that maybe a little bit expensive with what they paid for him, but, like, getting a guy who they can actually rely on to be the number one for Josh Allen. We've seen what that can do for their offense, and so I get that. So I like a lot of the moves that they made there. And then defensively, I do think I like the way that they retooled the edge room. I think that the secondary could be interesting. Obviously, bring in Jim Leonard. I'm pretty excited about. I just don't know how I feel about Joe Brady going from offensive coordinator to head coach and what that does for the overall everything. Like, that's the part of it I have a hard time getting a handle on.
- [44:08]
Robert Mays
There's always going to be unknowns with that, like, just always I landing on Joe Brady at the end of that process, I can. All I can understand being like, man, we're gonna. We're gonna fire Sean McDermott just to, like, land with the guy who was already in the building. But at the same time, I do think that the opportunity to bring in somebody like Jim Leonard and transform your mindset, approach, scheme on defense, that is a significant change. And like, I assume that the offense is going to have a lot of the same DNA that it did when Joe Brady was the offensive coordinator, but I don't think it's going to be entirely the same. I mean, you did change over, like, a huge chunk of your offensive staff. You have a new offensive line coach now, which I don't think is a good thing after Aaron Cromer left. But you got guys that come from a different background. Like Pete Carmichael is the offensive coordinator for this team. And so now you're leaning even more into the Saints Sean Payton world than you might have leaned into previously. And so even if it's the same play caller, I do think that it could look and feel a little bit different. And there's a chance that his influence as the head coach makes things look and feel a little bit different. I do think Sean McDermott did a very good job for a very long time and that upgrading from a coach like Sean McDermott is not easy. But I'm open to the idea that the Bills might be in a better place because Joe Brady is the head coach. And so even accounting for that and the offense, I still think the Jim Leonard part of this and just seeking out new ideas on defense is enough for me overall to get excited about the holistic impact the coaching staff and coaching change might have.
- [45:41]
Derek
I'm definitely willing to, to think that it's going to be good, especially because, like, again, I don't think the offense is going to be worse. I just wonder, like, what does Joe Brady look like running the entire operation? But I'll say this, I feel like we, we both had a lot of these reservations or at least questions about what Dallas was going to be doing when they were promoting Brian Schottenheimer from offensive coach and offensive assistant into being into that head coaching role. And like, how is he going to handle all that stuff? Obviously he's a little bit older than Joe Brady, I think, but there's, there's a decent chance that he handles.
- [46:11]
Robert Mays
He's a lot older than Joe Brady.
- [46:13]
Derek
Yeah, but there's a decent chance that like Brady can handle that stuff.
- [46:17]
Robert Mays
Right.
- [46:17]
Derek
Like he's been in the NFL for a decent amount of time now at a handful of different stops. And so I'm at least open to the idea that he can handle all that stuff. And like, put. Again, I think part of what's complicated with it too is it always felt like the Sean McDermott teams were so buttoned up and so getting to that level immediately as a first year head coach is going to be hard. But I do think that the roster is talented enough. They made a lot of the right moves and again, I like what they did with Jim Leonard, like bringing him in and then just throwing a ton of picks or at least a couple picks and a bunch of signings at the secondary to prevent themselves from the disaster situation they ended up in last year. I do like the approach that they made there.
- [46:57]
Robert Mays
What do you think about C.J. gardner Johnson? I think that people that are looking at that siding are thinking of C.J. gardner Johnson, like a few years ago when he was a member of like super bowl teams and not a guy who was available halfway through last season for free. I just think it's important to like reset what you think of him as a player and like where he is in his career. He was on the street last year halfway through the year and the Bears signed him to be like their emergency nickel when Kyler Gordon got hurt.
- [47:24]
Derek
I think what they did at safety this off season was just they did not want to go into again another season where Demar Hamlin is supposed to be the week one starter. And since so just throwing bodies of C.J. gardner, Johnson, they also signed Geno Stone who obviously didn't play well in Cincinnati. But you could convince me that with new and better coaching with a guy like Jim Leonard, he could at least be serviceable. And then you also draft Jalen Kilgore, like just throwing enough bodies at the problem that like with we're going to have somebody who is a little bit better for us, I can at least get there with that part of it.
- [47:54]
Robert Mays
And also I think just the physicality you're hopefully bringing to that group with like Garner, Johnson, Kilgore, like the combination of those guys, I absolutely think it can be an upgrade. I also just think that people have talked about him and like man, this is a big off season addition. It's like, I don't know guys. Like I, I wouldn't be treating it that way based on where he is in his career, but overall the plan back there, I'm with you. I can completely get behind. The only other thing with the defense is just that I look at what they did up front and I the the combination of Bradley Shove and TJ Parker. My question about this, and I'm open to the answer being very how much different does the pass rush feel in big time moments for the Bills this year compared to what it's felt like over the last few years. Like is Brad, are Bradley Chubb and TJ Parker enough to give this group a different feel in high leverage moments deep into the season?
- [48:45]
Derek
I don't know that this solves the issue of them not having a man. We know that we can have two guys straight off the edge with obviously one of those guys and potentially Greg Russo. I do think though that this rotation of Bradley Chubb, TJ Parker and even Mike Dana one, I think they can at least crush the pocket a little bit more consistently. But then also I think they help the run defense in a way that like will just allow them to get into some of the more favorable third downs and so I think the additions there on top of even if the tackling at safety is 15% better and you just stop some of these explosives that they gave up last year, that combination goes a long way, I think, for, for a defense like this. And so even if I think we want to see what this team looks like with an ace pass rusher and they've been obviously looking for it for a while, even if these are just B level additions in terms of pure pass rush, I do think the holistic addition that you get from these guys is going to gives it be a pretty good boost for them, I think.
- [49:43]
Robert Mays
And last point I'll make about this, when I watching Denver over the last few years and you don't necessarily want to do this where it's like, well, it's just going to be what the Broncos were like. I have no idea. Like Jim Leonard has a very specific role and what that ended up looking like, but you still kind of get designs on what it can be based on what a guy's previous stop looked like. And in Denver it's like you think about those guys coming off the edge and it's just gasoline. And so them not really you're all £240 and them not doing that and going for like a bigger body player in teacher Parker again, I don't even necessarily know if it's wrong. It's just one of those where it's like, ah, all right, this is going back for these more like 265 pound guys who can do a little bit of everything. And maybe that's just the organizational thought process and mandate and that's what they're going to do. But it's just I didn't know if we were going to end up in that spot again and that's where we ended up.
- [50:30]
Derek
That is interesting because it did seem like coming out of the Sean McDermott era, it was like, oh, they do have an opportunity to be a little bit different and exactly some different body types. And it's like, nope, 265 pounds, that's the, that's the limit to ride in Buffalo.
- [50:45]
Robert Mays
And again, I don't know if that's necessarily wrong. I just wasn't sure if it was going to happen. And sometimes it's fun to like chase shiny new things and have things feel a little bit different. And that's just not where we ended up with the Bills. Let's get to the next one here. The Baltimore Ravens. Jesse Minter in as the head coach, Declan Doyle in as the defense or as the Offensive coordinator from Chicago Veteran additions John Simpson, Trey Hendrickson, Calais Campbell, Jalen Hawkins Lost Tyler Linderbaum, Isaiah Likely, Charlie Kohler, Patrick Ricard, Alohi Gillman, bunch of like our Darius Washington. A lot of like smaller role players that we've talked a lot about in the draft. Ben Guyone in the first round, Zion Young in the second round, Jacobe Lane in the third round, Elijah Surat in the fourth round. Are you buying or selling the 2026 Baltimore Ravens off season?
- [51:37]
Derek
Man, this is another one that I, I don't know. I, I, I will say this. Defensively I think it's very easy to buy. Like Jesse Minter I think is fantastic. And not even just Minter, the fact that his, you know, right hand man for this is going to be Anthony Weaver, another guy who one has been in the building before and is familiar with some of these players but also I think just is a good defensive mind by himself. I think having those two guys run the defense where I think over the last couple of years with the Ravens, it's not that they don't have talent and they're an imperfect unit in terms of how it's built, but it just never quite felt like they were getting everything out of that unit the way that McDonald had previously. And so it was less than the
- [52:15]
Robert Mays
sum of the parts where previously it had been more than the sum of the parts. And you really felt the gap between
- [52:20]
Derek
those two things a hundred percent. And so if they can get back to something that is closer to feeling like they are really maximizing everybody and everybody's playing the right role and stuff like that and maybe Mentor and Weaver get a little bit more out of whoever linebacker two is going to be, whether that's Buchanan or Simpson. And maybe the defensive line depth feels a little bit better now that Adebika is going to be back and CLA's Campbell's in the building and you have Zion Young hopefully giving you a little bit more off the edge in terms of, at least in terms of run defense. So I can really buy it defensively that if things go right for them, they have enough depth that they can be a top eight sort of defense again. Because I really do trust this defensive brain, trust the offense. It's not that I don't buy it, it's that I, I genuinely have a hard time trying to wrap my head around what this is going to look like because from the first, from the first element of it, I think when you look at the interior it's like on a pure football Level you can kind of like, okay, losing Tyler Linderbaum sucks, but you draft a first round guard and Simpsons is a pretty good guard himself. So does that come out in the wash somewhere? Like probably, but I just, I don't know what the offense is going to look like. Like I know what Declan Doyle is coming from, but I just don't know how that pace on to what Lamar Jackson has been to this point in his career. Like, I'm genuinely curious.
- [53:37]
Robert Mays
Where do you think the disconnects? Like what are the points that you think there's a little bit of a gap that you want to see cleared?
- [53:42]
Derek
I mean, just my assumption is that Declan Doyle wants to be probably more of an under center operation and that's generally how, you know, a lot of the offenses that he's come from has operated and Lamar Jackson just hasn't done a lot of that. He can do it like they did some of that with Monken, even, even with Greg Roman. They did it a little bit, but he has generally been more of like when they want to get the running back in the dot. They're a pistol team and there's nothing wrong with that. It's just I think that that is going to be some. There's going to have to be some sort of push and pull where either Lamar Jackson is willing to be a little bit more under center and they become that style of offense, or Declan Doyle is going to have to kind of retrofit some of what he does to fit some of the pistol timing and some of the spacing and stuff like that.
- [54:26]
Robert Mays
Do you think we're at a place in Lamar's career where it would behoove both him and the Ravens for him to be closer to. I was going to say Jared Goff. For him to be closer to what that Bears asked from Caleb Williams last year. Do you think ultimately that is in the best interest of both the player and the offense?
- [54:47]
Derek
I think probably I think we are and I think for a couple reasons I don't think it's just Lamar. I think it's also the fact that like this is just not a pass catching group that I want to be like where we're spread out and we're asking the quarterback to just being gun and see it and do all these stuff like that's just not how this group is built and I think Lamar can do some of that stuff. I just don't know if we're at a point where I feel like the, the pass catching group is any better. Maybe one of these Rookies, hits, and that's different. But even the rookies they drafted are for this new style of offense, right? Like, they are bigger bodies, guys that can be in line a little bit and they can block. And so I really do think it probably behooves them to be a little bit more of a run centric, you know, under center type of offense. And obviously that's. I think that that can be good for a lot of reasons. One of it too is just like Derek Henry is probably the running back in the NFL that you get the most value of that from, where you are just bludgeoning people and then letting him be like, truly just end games in the fourth quarter. And so I can totally buy what this offense might look like. I'm just genuinely curious about what the push and pull is supposed to be.
- [55:56]
Robert Mays
I do think we might see, like, him under center much more than we've ever seen him in the past. I'm excited about it. Like, I just think that. I think it's. It's a lot of different things. I think some of it is. I'm curious what the Ben Johnson influence looks like. Like, as we have these assistants in that tree now and the success that he's had, like, if that starts to kind of drift around the league, what is. What ultimately is the impact of that? I. I think I'm really interested in what Declan Doyle does with the job. Like, it. The. It's interesting. Like, you think about what these trees look like and what they feel like and sort of the shared DNA with the coaches among them. And if I had to put a pin on, like, what the Shanahan McVeigh one is, I don't know where I'd land, like, the through line between all the guys in that group, but I think the thing that Ben Johnson and Declan Doyle share the most is that they're kind of maniacal. Like, they're. These are people who are just like, obsessed with trying to come up with the coolest shit possible and be the best offense that they can be in. Like, in the way that, like, really comes through, personality wise. And so I'm just curious, like, what that version of wunderkind offensive coordinator looks like as it drifts around the league. Like, I'm just excited about what Declan Doyle could do with this opportunity. That's opportunity, like a personality, like, just bigger picture, trend type level, the actual mechanics of it, play in and play out. I'm excited about watching Lamar, like, rip the shit out of some digs off play action. Like, I. I do think it actually does fall in line with some of the things that he does best. I don't think it's misaligned. Even if we're maybe going to see a different version of him than we've seen previously, if that makes sense.
- [57:43]
Derek
It does. He's an excellent middle of the field throw. Like it was the thing for him coming out of college and he's always been really good at it. I would say to really quickly hit on like the, the play calling difference. The McVeigh Shanahan guys always just feel very meticulous and just like what is the most efficient way that we can consistently run this. Whereas like Ben Johnson has always felt like he's just trying to drive the knife in a little bit.
- [58:05]
Robert Mays
Like I, I think this is a, I think it's a great way of putting it. I do think that the McVeigh specifically I, they I do think are doing a very conscious job of trying to keep the scope limited where it's like we only kind of want to run like 15 to 20 things. And even when it comes to like their off season self scout studies, all of that, I think they're more worried about how can we best weaponize our own little universe here. I think Ben Johnson's viewpoint about offensive football is a little bit more maximalist and so I do think that is a key difference between them and I think that's a very good shout. I think that's talking to guys just in those worlds and like the way that they think about it and even like their processes. I do think that is a key difference between those two groups. And even you said meticulous like that group is more meticulously groomed than like the Ben Johnson offensive world is like there is just like a difference personality wise with those two groups of coaches and I'm excited to see one of them maybe get a little bit bigger if Declan Doyle does well with this job 100%.
- [59:10]
Derek
And the last thing I do want to say about the offense I all of what I said about like being curious about what it looks like and not being one of buy in 100% I'll say this, this is not Lamar Jackson skepticism at all because Lamar Jackson has always proven that he can change to what the next thing is. Like he the 2018, 2019 Greg Roman offenses were even different than like what the 2020 and 2021 type of Greg Roman offenses were. Then they get into the Todd Monken era where he's having a lot more on his shoulders in terms of the pre Snap operation. He handled that really well. And so I if the offense changes to be maybe it's a little bit more under center, they're booting more, they're doing more of the you got to turn your back to the defense. He's always proven that the next thing he can handle it. And so I, I am very excited to see what the ceiling for it looks like.
- [59:54]
Robert Mays
Overall, I buy into this. I think taking a swing on Hendrickson, I totally get some of the depth move pieces that they've done on the defensive line, the body types, the skill sets they've sought out totally get. I'm excited about the secondary. I think that was already in a good spot. Obviously hiring Jesse Minter, we haven't really talked about in those terms. Massive win. Like it's exactly the coach I think you should come out of this cycle with if you are the Ravens. I'm into all of that. The one thing where I'm kind of like, I wonder if they could have handled this differently, not just not resigning. Tyler Winter bomb. I get that. Like not wanting to be in on a $27 million a year betting war for a center that's good, but not like a perennial all pro difference making player. I completely understand that. I'm just surprised they didn't find any suitable alternative. Like if you look in the draft like we, I, I always like doing this. Like, all right, well you can, don't crush a team for not doing something unless you can present an actual like legitimate path they could have taken that they didn't. The idea that they drafted both of those big bodied receivers and then they drafted Jacoby Lane with multiple guys that theoretically could have played center for you. Like Trey Zun was still on the board. You get a little bit deeper into the fourth round. Connect was still on the board. Like, I know he's coming off of an injury, but the idea that they didn't, they, they walked out of the third and fourth rounds of the draft, even if the center run started a little bit earlier than we thought without like a viable option in that area and picked two receivers in that spot. It's just a little bit surprising. Like I just, I'm just surprised they weren't a little bit more proactive in trying to find a viable option even if they were going to let Linderbaum walk out the door.
- [61:31]
Derek
I agree for, for two reasons. One, like there were centers available in this class that's that isn't always the case. Like, to be fair, there are not always going to be classes that have a lot of centers, but there were four or five guys in that, you know, pick 75 to 120 range, where a lot of those guys went. And they had picks where they could have done that. The other thing too is like, this is not a situation where whoever that they were going to insert behind Tyler Linderbaum or whatever had at least played snaps before and had at least done something for them. Their options right now are Corey Bullock, who's been on the team for a couple years, in and out and has really not ever played any meaningful games. And then Javon Gwynn, who Darrell Ledbetter brought over from Atlanta, who he's like, kind of familiar with. But again, it's a guy who has never really played and started NFL games. And so it's, it's not like they're replacing him with a guy who has some experience. It's complete unknowns at those spots. Which, that part of it is a little bit freaky to me, I guess
- [62:25]
Robert Mays
if you're trying to spin this in a positive way. How much did we know about Jalen's son Bell before last season?
- [62:32]
Derek
Not a lot. And that's a good point. Not a lot. And so if we trust the offensive line coach, which I think both of us kind of do, he had done obviously a really good job in Atlanta, maybe they can get by. And especially too, like, if the guards are who we think they are, can probably get by a little bit with having a center who is not the best player in the world.
- [62:51]
Robert Mays
Yeah. And again, I do have faith in the people that are going to be in charge of constructing what that offense looks like to potentially get them there. Let's take one more quick break and then come back and chat about the two teams with the best super bowl odds heading into next year.
- [63:07]
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- [64:52]
Robert Mays
You know what? Out of deference to them, we're gonna do the Seahawks last. Even though the Rams have better odds. Just out of deference to the Seahawks, they deserve it. They're the super bowl champions. The Los Angeles Rams this off season hired Nathan she promoted Nathan Shield House to be their offensive coordinator after losing Michael Fluor. Additions really just Jalen Watson and Trent McDuffie. Those, those are the moves losses. Kobe Durant was the biggest one in the secondary. Obviously they account for that with the moves that they made a corner in the draft. Rams drafted Ty Simpson in the first round. Not sure if you caught that in real time. Max Claire in the second round. Keegan Trost in the third round. Are you buying or selling the 2026 Rams off season?
- [65:33]
Derek
I listen no amount of off season talk is going to get me there on the Simpson pick, but we don't have to do that otherwise I think
- [65:40]
Robert Mays
we can do that a little bit. That's a big part of the off season.
- [65:43]
Derek
Listen I we can save that for the end. I because I do think a lot of the other stuff that they did I think is good and makes them better and like is the right stuff that they needed to do to go to win a Super bowl. Because I think for for one this is a team that if you are trying to make the push and again this is a year to year thing with the way that this team is built. Going and getting star players I think is totally fine. This is a team that has always proven they've had the appetite to do it and I think that Trent McDuffie can be that. This also like if you were to make any case for even going into the playoffs last year, what was going to sink the Rams season. It was their secondary. We all remember the Panthers game where like Bryce Young had just like 300 yards against them and it was ending the game against them with these like big touchdowns. That sort of stuff was always going to be freaky. The fact that they attacked that so aggressively with Trent McDuffie and Jalen Watson. They already have the front that they have. I think the defense is going to kick ass again. And it helps that Shula did not get hired away to go be a head coach somewhere. The fact that they have continuity there, I think is awesome. And so I'm really bought in there offensively.
- [66:45]
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- [66:45]
Derek
It's like, I think some people were doing a little bit of like they need a wide receiver three and they probably do need more depth there. I kind of think Jordan Whittington is fine as a wide receiver three. For an offense that doesn't use a lot of three wide receivers anyway. Like, I'm, I'm not that they still
- [67:01]
Robert Mays
use it like 50% of the time. It's still half the plays.
- [67:04]
Derek
Yeah. But they're running a lot out of it. It's a lot of play action. They're always moving. That guy I'm not that worried about.
- [67:10]
Robert Mays
Also wonder, is it going to be 50% of the plays this year?
- [67:13]
Derek
Right.
- [67:14]
Robert Mays
Like now the fact that you got Parkinson, Higby Ferguson, Max Claire and Davis Allen who played a decent chunk for you last year, like, what is them leaning even further into this multi tight end identity look like? I think they. You can make an argument they might be overdoing it. Like they overcooked a little the year after drafting Terrence Ferguson in the second round. You're going to draft Max Claire in the second round. And I, I don't know ton about Max Claire, you know more than me. But reading everything about him and watching a little bit, it does seem like pass catching is like the in athleticism is the biggest selling for Max Claire. We. You just drafted Terence Ferguson. Like what is. I, I'm sure they have a vision for how those players are supposed to coexist and fit together. I, I don't necessarily know what it is, but they really seem to be leaning into this thing and I guess that's part of it is that it's beyond the Ty Simpson in the first round thing. The fact that they drafted a tight end in the second round, I'm kind of like, man, I got. It's. It's just not what I expected. The first two rounds of the Rams draft to look like and sometimes you have to divorce yourself from that. Like, just because they weren't my expectations doesn't mean it was the wrong way to handle it. But it still is something where I've had to kind of reset a little bit after sitting with it for a little while.
- [68:28]
Derek
Yeah. At least. Like, I don't know if I would have done the clear thing. Like they already have so many tight ends that I almost would have rather tried to just see if I could get some interesting receiver there or something. I, I will say to go back to the Ty Simpson thing. I said this in the moment and like, my biggest complaint with it is that to me that just felt like the spot where you could have really saved yourself from potential offensive line issues or not having good enough tackle play and all that sort of stuff. And the fact that they, they didn't want to do that does still irk me. I, I always get there's going to be the argument you want to play for the future at quarterback. I totally understand that. I just feel like tackle is one of those positions where you can kind of be like, it's fine if we just take a guy here. Like I, I, I, I would have much rather them do that.
- [69:16]
Robert Mays
I'm okay with it. Like I just, the more and more, the more and more that I've thought about it and I, and I think it's one of the reasons that I've kind of come around. I, I wasn't even that skeptical of in the moment. I understood it in the moment. I think one of the reasons I've become more and more accepting of it is that as we talk about some of these other teams and as we talk about what their multi year outlook at quarterback is, the more times you do that with a team that's just shrouded in uncertainty, it makes it easier to accept the Rams doing this just because that, that conversation is so anxiety ridden and anxiety inducing where you're just like, well, where are they going to get the quarterback? Like, how is it going to happen? Like, can you maneuver around in the first round? Where are you going to get the guy? Pittsburgh.
- [70:02]
Derek
Right.
- [70:03]
Robert Mays
So we're talking and sitting here talking about Pittsburgh and it's just like, like man, you know, there's, I'm so excited about elements of this roster and what the offensive line can look like and I get the vision for the pass catchers and like, yeah, there's a lot to really like here, but what's going to happen to quarterback? How are they going to get that guy if they have the 20th overall pick and there's four quarterbacks, are you going to be able to move up like that? The Rams are just avoiding that. They're just, they're never going to have to have that set of discussions. And even if you have reservations about Ty Simpson as a player and this is a team with the window to win right now, I understand if you're in that spot when you're the Rams being like, I'm just bypassing this. I'm just never going to have to have this conversation. And I believe in our building's ability to lift this guy up. I get landing there. I do.
- [70:52]
Derek
And I will say that if there's any spot that was going to make Simpson work or at least get me there eventually, like, it's the Rams. But, like, that doesn't have anything to do with Simpson. Like, that could just be insert X quarterback. And I just think that they can get something out of that guy. And he has some of the, he has some of the right traits for that offense. But I think, I think that is a little bit easier to find than like they have let on where they watched like 70 snaps of him under center and they're like, oh, you can just never find this at the college level. Like, I, I, that to me, I think is a little bit extreme.
- [71:24]
Robert Mays
I think.
- [71:25]
Derek
And I think that's also like, playing it too safe. Like, like being too scared to like, take some of these other. Like, I just. This, that's, that's actually the thing is, like, I think this has been painted as taking like a risk. In fact, it's, it's the opposite of it. This is like a little bit. Scared is the wrong word. But they are preventing themselves from certain outcomes in a way that I think it just feels a little bit unnecessary to me.
- [71:49]
Robert Mays
Back on that a little bit in that I actually do think when you watch Ty Simpson and you compare that to pick X NFL pick x college quarterback, there are significantly more moments watching Ty Simpson at Alabama last year that look like what he's going to be asked to do in the NFL than an average college quarterback. When you're going and watching it, the throws he's being asked to make, the way he's asked to read things out. I think there are, there are two things at play here. I said it in the moment and I think after digging into it a little bit, I feel even better saying this. I do think that there is an effect of what Brock Purdy has been for the Niners in the Rams being willing to do this with Tyson Smith. And I think it's on two different fronts. One, the appeal of a guy who you see go, 1, 2, 3, boom, 1, 2, 3, Boom. I can get to the backside of things. My, my eyes, my mind, the way I'm seeing things is akin to what it will be in the NFL. There's less guesswork there. I think that's appealing. I also think that the playmaking part of it is appealing and that's, that's the element of it that I think isn't. We can just throw whatever guy in there who's been asked to do these things. I think the flashes that you saw from Ty Simpson deeper into the down as a playmaker, some of that off schedule stuff he does give you that like that is a part of his game in a way, in a similar way to what Brock Purdy can do. And so I don't think every quarterback that's. I don't. I think it goes beyond solely what he was asked to do. I do think that there are elements of his game that made him appealing, more appealing than general college quarterback prospect X might be.
- [73:24]
Derek
So that's interesting. I think he has some of that. I don't think he had enough of that to like warrant like where he went and to be like that excited about it. Like, I would be shocked if that element of his game is ever better than like Baker Mayfield. And like again, Baker Mayfield is a
- [73:42]
Robert Mays
totally fine enough of it. Right? I mean like Baker gives strength to.
- [73:46]
Derek
You know what I mean? Like it took Baker a very long time for that, that part of his game to really be optimized and for what he does in the pocket to be optimized. And so, and I actually think another reason that he, I think is very analogous to Baker Mayfield as a, as a prospector, as a player overall, early in Baker Mayfield's career and really until he got to Tampa Bay and I would even say his second year in Tampa Bay, Baker Mayfield was just always pitter patter in the pocket and just was very uncomfortable.
- [74:12]
Robert Mays
The drifting, it used to drive me crazy. The drifting would drive me crazy.
- [74:15]
Derek
The drifting always only bailing to his right, not wanting to step up in the pocket. Yes.
- [74:21]
Robert Mays
It's not the drift, the bailing to the right, it was just driving me nuts.
- [74:25]
Derek
And it took him seven years or six years, whatever it was, to really break himself of that habit. And maybe Ty Simpson can do it sooner. But I think it took a lot, Baker Mayfield, a lot of reps to actually get there. And I'm Just worried that you can actually always do that with every player.
- [74:41]
Robert Mays
Here's my counter to that. It might be seven years before Ty Simpson plays.
- [74:46]
Derek
You think they're actually going to get robotic arms for really more of a robotic spine for Matthew Stafford to keep him out there.
- [74:54]
Robert Mays
Last one here, the Seattle Seahawks. Not a ton to report. Brian Fleury in as the offensive coordinator. We haven't talked about that at all. I, I just think for a lot of different.
- [75:03]
Derek
I don't even know how to talk about that.
- [75:04]
Robert Mays
He's a complete unknown, right? Like, he's. I mean, he's. His background is fascinating. We'll talk about this more as we get a little bit closer. You know, he's somebody that has filled a ton of different roles in the NFL. You know, my first time I became aware of him, he was in Miami and he was working on like the analytics side. And so I, I think he's a really interesting choice and I think that he impressed them on a bunch of different levels. But he, he's somebody that I want to talk more about as we get a little bit deeper into the off season. And like what he might be in the appeal of that, all of it. Additions Dante Fowler, Rodney Thomas, no egg, monogamy. It's really. That's like it on the veteran market. Not a lot of big time splashy moves in the Seahawks. Lost boy Mafe, Kenneth Walker, Reek Woolen in the draft. Jadarian Price in the first round, safety Bud Clark in the second round, cornerback Julian Hill in the third round. Are you buying or selling the Seattle Seahawks off season?
- [75:57]
Derek
I had a very weird experience with the Seahawks off season where it felt like at every turn when we were doing free agency shows during the draft, during just like the entire process where I just felt like I hated everything that they went about. Things like I said about it in free agency week, the fact that they brought back none of Kenneth Walker, Tariq Woolner, Bowie and Mafe. I was like, man, what are we doing? And then they didn't do anything else. I don't know if I love the Jadarian Price pick, but then I just kind of look at the roster holistically. I really like how they approach the defensive back room with just like spamming picks there for the guys that they let walk and trusting your special defensive head coach to really make that work. Like, I ended up in a spot where I was like, listen, most teams are probably going to reset a little bit after the super bowl and probably can afford to do that. They have clearly operated that way, where they're taking a little bit of a reset and they're just going to try to make sure that they are sustainable for the next two, three years. I liked a lot of the moves that they made and they'll still be a really good roster even if they didn't add a whole lot. And so I'm for, I think, what their goals seemed to be, I actually came around with how they handled things.
- [77:08]
Robert Mays
When you look at the way that free agency went, there were some backs that were available. One of them was a guy you were letting walk. And then Travis H was really the only other one that was going to give you any sort of pop on the free agent market as like a real guy, like Keaton Mitchell gives you pop. Keaton Mitchell isn't getting 17 carries a game, eight carries like that. That's just not happening. And so I think I, I have some skepticism about the way they handled the running back and the drafting the running back in the first round and that being the way that you almost like painting yourself into a corner where you have a lot of urgency and like how you're going to replace that guy and not seeking out alternatives that maybe don't put you in that sort of corner. But I get it. Like, I, I think I've come around on it. I've softened on it in terms of like how they ended up attacking the draft because of where their needs were. And on offense, that was really the big loss. It was Kenneth Walker and them being like, we're going to make sure we go get a viable running back option, especially with, with Zach Sharpen. I heard early in the year, even if it's a little rich, I can understand that defensively and just overall, I think they're in a place where they just weren't going to pay more for guys than they were worth. Like Mafe is being going from a rotational player to $20 million a year, we're not going to do that. Reek Wolin going from, for us, a rotational corner to somebody making $15 million a year, we're not going to do that on offense. There are multiple guys from last year, like Tory Horton got hurt last year. Elijah Royal was a young player. You could easily see the past catching room feeling a lot different this year than it was last year, even if they didn't add anybody. And then the last thing, the last thought I had about this team, they, unlike a lot of the other teams we're talking about on this show and the last show, they have money. They do over the next couple years actually have, like, a reasonable amount of financial flexibility. There's another team we've talked about and the one one on the show that doesn't. That kind of leaves some powder dry when it comes to the way that they spend their resources and have a similar mindset where, like, we're not going to overpay for these guys. That's the Chargers. The difference between the Chargers and the Seahawks is at the trade deadline or next spring, if there's like a huge swing to be made, this team will do it.
- [79:21]
Derek
Yeah, they're willing to do it. They straddle a weird world where they're like kind of Philly and kind of the Chargers at the same time. They live in a weird world.
- [79:32]
Robert Mays
They're willing to do it. And so them having, like, a little bit of money to throw around and having flexibility. I think of it a little bit differently with them than I do with another team. Like, I bet they'd trade for Max Crosby if they could.
- [79:46]
Derek
Like, the Chargers would never think about that.
- [79:48]
Robert Mays
They would never do that.
- [79:49]
Derek
That.
- [79:50]
Robert Mays
And so, like, and. And that's why for me, it's like, even if they weren't hyper aggressive, I think giving yourself the avenue to be hyper aggressive, who are pl for players who are worth it, rather than doing it in free agency for a pool of players who probably aren't worth it. I understand that. I understand leaving yourself that wiggle room in the way that the Seahawks have and.
- [80:13]
Derek
And like with some of the. The woolen one. I understand more now with the way that they, you know, threw three different draft picks at it. Two of them are seventh round picks, but still. So I at least understand that one. I think if there was any free agency thing to be made, like, there was part of me that wanted them to maybe throw some resources along the interior. But then I looked at, like, what you were going to have to pay for guards, how many were available. I'm like, I don't even know what you would have really done. I will say I probably would have been okay paying Kenneth Walker and then not painting ourselves into a corner with the first round pick. I think that that would have been a totally acceptable way to do it. But again, I also get why they handled it. Why they handled it.
- [80:49]
Robert Mays
I think I probably agree with that. Like, for a team that does have the money, if they wanted to, they could have afforded Kenneth Walker if they had wanted to. And by doing that and even paying a little bit of a premium for it because he was going to hit free agency is that is it worth paying that little bit of a premium to give yourself more optionality as you get toward the draft? I think my answer to that is probably yes.
- [81:10]
Derek
Right? And like if, if we're going to paint like the exact outcome it could have been like you pay Kenneth Walker and then that first round pick is. I'm not even going to say you trade out of it because I think they probably thought about doing that already on draft night. They tried to five different, yeah, five different teams ahead of them already traded out of that pick. But let's just say 32 is instead they draft Chase Besantis ahead of the Cardinals, like three or four picks ahead of that. Would I rather have Kenneth Walker and Chase Besantis than whatever they ended up doing and then having to spend the first round pick on Jadarian Price? Probably. But I also like, they're probably still going to be a good team anyway and so even if it's not optimal, I kind of understand why they operated the way they did the way that they did.
- [81:50]
Robert Mays
All right. Well, that's it. That is all 32 teams. We have bought or sold the entire league here over the last month. Really enjoyed doing these shows. Hope you guys have enjoyed them as well. I assume we'll be doing them as long as I have this podcast because I think it's a really, really good exercise to go through every single one of these offseasons each spring. While you guys are listening to this, I am on vacation, but obviously we still have multiple shows coming your way. Three this week, we'll have three next week. The next thing that will be in your feed is another edition of the off season Mailbag coming your way on Monday. So be on the lookout for that for now. That's all we got. Appreciate you guys listening. We'll talk to you very soon. Thanks for tuning in. Make sure to hit that subscribe or follow button so you never miss an episode. If you enjoyed what you heard, please like like comment and leave a rating. We'll see you next time.
- [82:46]
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Derek
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