The Athletic Football Show – Conference Championship Sunday Preview

Episode Date: January 23, 2026
Host(s): Robert Mays, Derrik Klassen, Dave Helman
Main Focus: Deep-dive preview of the AFC and NFC Championship Games: Patriots-Broncos and Rams-Seahawks III

Episode Overview

This episode delivers a comprehensive, energetic, and analytic breakdown of the AFC and NFC Championship matchups. The hosts leverage their extensive NFL expertise, Xs and Os acumen, and attention to team-building narratives to paint a picture of why these games matter, how the teams arrived, and what to expect on Sunday. Throughout, the tone is sharp, occasionally irreverent, and always deeply informed.

AFC Championship: Patriots at Broncos

Setting: Denver; Patriots favored by 4.5 after Bo Nix’s injury changes the outlook.

The Road Back for Two Franchises

• Broncos’ Decade-Long Wilderness
  • Robert Mays recounts the Broncos’ journey since their last AFC title (2015), from the Peyton Manning era through the “dark times” (Paxton Lynch, Trevor Siemian, Case Keenum, Drew Lock, Teddy Bridgewater, Nathaniel Hackett, and the Russell Wilson disaster) to Sean Payton’s arrival and resurrection of the organization.
  • “In that 10-year span where it felt like the Broncos may have been as adrift as any franchise in the league, they are back... because the big bet that they made on the coach... actually worked out.” (03:41)
• Patriots’ (Much Quicker) Reload
  • The turnaround from a “disastrous” 4-13 to 14-3 and favored on the road in the AFC title game, thanks to hitting on Drake Maye with the third pick after a rock-bottom season.
  • “Two years where they were an out-and-out disaster before they're back here... Some of this luck is required.” (06:54)

The AFC’s Bitterness

• Derrik Klassen:
  • “How sick are the other 13 teams in the AFC... for all of this to happen and it’s the fricking Patriots?” (08:04)
• The Chiefs Exception & AFC Power Vacuum
  • The hosts note that both Denver and New England filled the “power vacuum” left by the Chiefs/Ravens, frustrating AFC rivals.

When the Broncos Have the Ball

Key Topic: Jared Stidham Steps In

• Examining Stidham’s Strengths and Limitations

  • Arm talent: throws a nice spiral, accurate to all three levels, leads receivers well, rapid checkdowns (“If you’re the Patriots, they better come ready to tackle in the flats like 30 times.” – Dave, 09:47)
  • Not nearly as sudden or athletic as Bo Nix; far less escapability and slower release.
  • While the offensive scheme and pass protection help, Stidham’s ability to hit deep/intermediate shots and avoid sacks is a huge storyline.
  • “When you watch how quickly Nix can accelerate... that’s not what Jared Stidham is bringing to the table.” (11:51 – Robert)

• Scheme Efficiency vs. Premier Patriots Defense

  • Broncos’ offense excels at designing open throws, especially deep shots or play-action crossers, but Bo Nix’s athleticism covered for marginal plays; Stidham cannot extend plays the same way.
  • Patriots defense: top 3 in defending deep balls over 20+ yards, yet more vulnerable on deep/intermediate shots outside the numbers.
  • Key stat: Bo Nix’s passer rating/ball placement on layered throws improved massively in the second half of the season; can Stidham replicate even part of this?
    • Early season: 72 passer rating on 20+ air-yard throws; Week 11 onward: 122 passer rating (15:22)

• Sean Payton’s Proof of Concept

  • Stidham was an early Payton signing, possibly a “backup with real belief”—this is a matchup to see if Payton’s eye pays off.
  • “There’s a lot of reason to think this could go pretty well. Now you just gotta go actually do it on the field.” – (18:07)

• Anticipated Patriots Strategy: Blitzes, Mug Looks, Tackle in Space

  • Patriots bring creative pressure (heavy Cover 0 usage in playoffs, mugged up looks with DB blitzers), and Broncos’ O-line/backs must pass protect well, especially on the edges. (21:03)
  • Game will likely hinge on tackling after the catch—lots of balls will be thrown short, so limiting YAC is critical. (22:15)

When the Patriots Have the Ball

Key Topic: Drake Maye Up Against a Tough Pass Rush

• Maye’s “Pinpoint” Game—Volatility Risk

  • Patriots rely heavily on Maye’s ability to make tight window throws under duress, especially against man coverage.
  • “His pinpoint accuracy is phenomenal... I have the utmost confidence in Drake May to throw it into as tight a window as he wants to.” (23:17–24:27)
  • Ball security/decision-making vs. pressure is crucial. Maye’s sack rate doubles against man (11.4%) compared to zone (4.9%).
  • “Even if his ball placement allows him to survive in that world ... that’s your best path forward if you’re the Broncos.” (24:48 – Robert)

• Broncos’ Defensive Creativity/Blitz Plan

  • Denver brings “stunt-heavy, individualized” five-man pressures requiring Maye to process quickly; any volatility could shift the game.
  • “The Broncos do a fantastic job with their pass rush plan. ... you need a couple turnovers to go your way.” (24:48–25:00)

• Mismatch to Watch:

  • Will Campbell (Pats rookie LT) vs. speed rushers (Nick Bonito, Jonathan Cooper); Seahawks’ pass rushers are smaller/bendier than the giants who gave him trouble earlier, so this is a different test.
  • “Will Anderson is long for his size, but he also is pretty fast and a good bender. He got straight around Will Campbell a couple of times.” (31:07–31:39 – Dave)

• Other Red Zone/Matchup Angles

  • Look for Broncos to exploit size advantages vs. Marcus Jones in the slot/end zone (32:46), inspired by how Christian Kirk and Drake London have victimized New England recently.

NFC Championship: Rams at Seahawks (Part III)

Setting: Seattle, Seahawks by 2.5 (essentially a toss-up)

“As Good As It Gets” —Historic Matchup in DVOA Terms

• Historical Significance

  • The hosts highlight the exceptional quality of this three-game series:
    • “Aaron Schatz said, this is the best matchup of the last 47 years by DVOA. ... Anecdotally, it feels like an incredibly good game.” (39:33)
    • 7th playoff meeting ever between teams both over 30% DVOA, best in nearly 50 years.

• Best Three-Game Series Ever?

  • “This is the best three game series we've probably ever seen... Both regular season games were decided by three points, and even that undersells how close they were.” (40:00–41:03, Dave)

Team Arcs & Urgency

• Rams:
  • The “all-in” 2021 Super Bowl, then injury disaster in 2022, rebuilding with youth, and suddenly everything (Stafford’s MVP-caliber resurgence, OL health, 13 personnel shift) falls into place for potentially “last run” with this core.
  • “It kind of feels like now or never for the Rams... Stafford turns 38 the day before the Super Bowl.” (43:07)
• Seahawks:
  • Mike Macdonald’s transformation of the defense into the league’s best; new OC, new QB, new OL after trading DK Metcalf.
  • Macdonald as the new “defensive play-caller prototype,” praised for “fine coaching details” and launching a new wave of defensive head coaches.
  • “He’s the best defensive play caller in the NFL right now, probably.” (46:53–47:04 – Mays/Dave)

When the Rams Have the Ball

• Identity: Power Run/Play Action/Intermediate Passing

  • Rams' basic run game (duo, 13 personnel) keeps them "on script"; prefer chunk yardage through the air rather than dinking/dunking (lowest RB target rate in NFL).
  • “The Rams at 11% throw to their backs less than any other team in the NFL.” (48:00 – Dave)
  • However, their “efficient” short play-action passes—often to TE Colby Parkinson—are extensions of the run game, especially in 13 personnel (49:13–50:50).

• 13 Personnel Revolution

  • Rams pivoted to heavy 13 personnel as their identity mid-season, with the Thursday night Seahawks game as the “crowning moment.”
  • Yards per play and TDs from this formation have slipped in the playoffs; teams catching up? Still, expect it to be the plan Sunday.
  • “The Rams used 13 personnel on 61% of their plays in that game... I really liked the plan.” (53:07 – Mays)

• Kyren Williams as Crucial Under-the-Radar Factor

  • His vision, contact balance, and ability to keep the offense “on schedule” have helped mask average run blocking.
  • “...the Rams in week 16 are the only team this year that rushed for a hundred yards between the tackles against Seattle.” (54:28)

• Pass Protection & Stafford’s Unique Skill

  • Stafford's arm/eye manipulation vs. Macdonald’s zone: Rams uniquely able to attack the middle of the field against this defense, using Stafford’s eyes to move zone defenders.
  • “Stafford is really the only guy... just like, dude, I’ve been doing it for 17 years... I’m gonna trust I can put it past your earhole.” (61:14 – Dave)
  • In Week 16, 30% of all Seattle’s deep-middle pass yardage allowed all year came in that one game vs. Stafford. (60:42–61:14)

• How Much to Blitz?

  • Bears had cover zero/blitz success in snowy conditions; Seahawks rarely blitz, and chunk plays came for Rams in Week 16 when Seahawks sent pressure.
  • “Stafford against the blitz in that game: 8 of 13 for 140 yards. ...I’m not sure I’m bringing a lot of second-level defenders if I’m the Seahawks.” (62:29–63:35)

• Areas to Attack:

  • Double moves for Puka Nacua, empty formations (Seahawks are average vs. empty), motion to isolate favorable matchups.

When the Seahawks Have the Ball

• Theme: Can Chris Shula Outscheme Sam Darnold Again?

  • Shula (Rams DC) has consistently fooled Darnold with disguise, simulated man-to-zone coverages, and well-timed stunts. Darnold’s two multiple-INT games in 2025 were both vs. the Rams.
  • “If the Seahawks don’t claw back to that win, we’d be hearing all week about whether Sam Darnold can keep from sinking this Seahawks season.” (72:21 – Klasse)
  • Specific examples: dropped linemen, baiting Darnold into turnovers, disguising coverage by having defenders “run with” WR motion and then dropping into zone (70:04).

• Run Game Variable; Rams Tough Up Front

  • Solid inside linebacker duo Lamman/Spates and aggressive run fits make a repeat of Seattle’s recent run-game explosion unlikely.
  • “Their run gameplan defensively is so good... the amount of stunts and shifting... I find it harder to imagine the Seahawks running the ball as well in this game as they have over the last couple of weeks.” (73:30)

• Stafford’s Audaciousness vs. Darnold’s Hesitation

  • When in trouble, Seahawks must avoid back-breaking turnovers; Rams' secondary feeds off anticipation and aggression.

• Seahawks’ Avenue: Heavy Looks, Early Down Play Action

  • Circumstances to exploit: Rams using base defense vs. SEA 12 personnel (especially without Quinn Lake in the slot), with Seahawks able to isolate JSN or others outside for leverage and space.
  • Play action in-breakers have been the Rams' defensive Achilles heel.

• Seahawks Must Pass Protect Better

  • Critical for Seattle to pick up stunts/twists after a rough outing last time (Kobe Turner, Puna Ford had quick wins up the middle). If the OL can’t stand up, Darnold will struggle (77:13–78:03).

• Cover 2: Darnold’s Reluctance

  • Sam Darnold has one of the league’s lowest air-yard averages vs. Cover 2 (“cloud” coverage), with the Rams running it frequently; his caution limits Seahawks’ usual aggressiveness.
  • “Against Cover 2, Darnold's air yards are the fourth lowest… doesn’t actually take shots like we imagine.” (78:03)

• Injury Notes:

  • Charles Cross (Seahawks LT): Mike Macdonald “optimistic” for his return, critical for matchups against Rams edge rusher Jared Verse. (79:39)

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On Broncos’ Dead Years:
  • “Holy shit. There’s been some rough Broncos football. But the minute you make the right hire ... it can happen really, really quickly.” (05:18 – Derrik)
• On AFC’s Jealousy:
  • “That would really piss me off if I were a fan of a rival AFC team.” (08:04 – Derrik)
• On Bo Nix’s Growth:
  • “Since the halfway point of the season... he’s been unreal at hitting the deep ball.” (15:52 – Derrik)
• On Stafford’s Renaissance:
  • “This was the best season of his career. He was the first-team all-pro quarterback in a year where you have all these MVP-level guys.” (44:22 – Mays)
• On Defensive Coaching Trends:
  • “For the first time ... the defensive play-calling head coach is in vogue. It is what people want.” (46:13 – Derrik)
• On Stafford dictating Coverage:
  • “He’s really the only quarterback brazen enough to challenge [the middle of the field]... I can put it past your earhole.” (61:14 – Dave)

Key Timestamps

• History & Team Arcs: 01:36–06:54 (Broncos/Patriots path back)
• Broncos with Stidham: 09:20–19:08
• Patriots Offensive Attack: 23:17–29:11
• NFC Historical Context & Team Paths: 38:38–47:04
• Rams Offensive Plan: 48:00–54:28
• Stafford vs. Seahawks D: 59:22–62:29
• Seahawks Offense vs. Shula: 70:04–75:33
• Seattle’s Play Action & Darnold: 76:52–79:39

Final Thoughts

This episode is a must for fans who want granular Xs and Os, deep franchise context, and the storylines that define championship weekend. Both games showcase franchises that rebuilt fast, stylish coaching matchups, and attacks destined to stress their opponents’ weaknesses.

The hosts promise a Sunday night recap, ensuring the storyline-following continues, win or lose.

Next Up: Live Sunday night recap – be sure to tune in!