← The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL
The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL
Conference Championship Sunday Preview: Rams-Seahawks III meets the rise of the Broncos and Patriots
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- [00:00]
Robert Mays
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- [01:36]
Robert Mays
Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays. Championship Sunday has arrived. AFC Championship NFC Championship Two excellent matchups started with the AFC Championship. Just dug into the path that the Broncos and the Patriots have taken back to this place. I was at the 2015 AFC Championship game when the Broncos won. That was actually the last time the super bowl was in San Francisco and so a lot of weird parallels there. It took the Broncos a while to get back to this place, but they are firmly back in this spot. Patriots what what a terrible three years it was that they had to wait before being a good team. Again. I feel so sorry for their fans that dug into what we're looking for on both sides of the ball. Obviously started with what the Broncos offense might look like with Jared Stidham. What they will ask of him in a game like this before digging into how the Broncos defense might approach Drake. Maybe then move to the NFC Championship Game. As good as it gets. That just just truly as good as it gets. We talked about some of the historical markers associated with the quality of these teams, debated whether this is the best three game series we've ever seen from a set of two teams in the NFL. I'm sure there are some good examples you guys could throw our way after that. Dug into what it looks like on both sides of the ball. Ram Seahawks again, doesn't get any better than that. And can Sam Darnold overcome the Chris Shula demons that have haunted him here over the last year or so? Loved these conversations with me, Dave Hellman and Derek Klassen. Let's get to it right now. Championship Sunday is here. Two fantastic games for us to dig into today. Both of these games presented by BetMGM. Let's start with the AFC Championship Game. Patriots at Broncos. Patriots are four and a half point favorites on the road. This is mostly a product of Bonix not playing in this game. It originally opened with the Broncos as slight favorites. It's shifted over 5 points I believe after the injury or after the news of the bone Knicks injury came down. Dave, where I wanted to start with this is that this is a familiar matchup in the postseason. I remember going to multiple playoff games between the Patriots and the Broncos in Denver. I'm pretty sure there was at least more. There was more than one and one of them was the 2015 AFC championship game. That was also the last time the super bowl was in San Francisco, is that both of these teams are playing in the AFC Championship Game in Denver. I was there. Obviously they were at very different points in the lifespan of their franchises than they are now. They were completely different teams. Tom Brady, Peyton Manning. It's kind of the end of that era of things. And then what happens next, I think is what is so interesting when you're trying to like put into context both of these teams arriving back in this place. And after that game ends, the Broncos like and the Broncos win the super bowl and then they immediately like go into the wilderness. Post Peyton Manning, you have one more year of Gary Kubiak and then in 2017 you draft or you draft Paxton lynch in 2016. In 2017 you have Trevor Simeon starts the majority of your games. We have the Vance Joseph era. They cycle between all these quarterbacks they draft, they sign case Keenum. In 2018, we get to the Vic Fangio era. That kind of peters out. Teddy Bridgewater plays some quarterback for them. Then you hire Nate Hackett, you make the Russell Wilson trade. It's an out and out disaster. You hire Sean Payton in order to kind of get things back on the rails. And it works. And now in that 10 year span where it felt like the Broncos may have been as adrift as any franchise in the league, they are back in the AFC championship game because the big bet that they made on the coach that was supposed to get them back here actually worked out.
- [05:18]
Derek Klassen
I have a few places I can go with this. And thinking about the Broncos specifically before we go anywhere else, the Broncos feel like such a great case study for how bad it can get and then how quickly you can turn it around. It's pretty, it's pretty remarkable where Denver is when you consider all of the stuff that has broken against them. Because remember, we're still only a couple years removed from deciding that the Russell Wilson thing was a disaster. The Broncos won 14 games and are hosting the AFC championship while they're why while they are still carrying Russell Wilson dead money on their cap. It's remarkable and. But it also comes after however many years that was. Like when you were listing all that out in the pre production meeting, like the Ted Teddy Bridgewater time and thinking about Paxton lynch and the Drew Lock year. You're just like holy shit. There's been some rough Broncos football. But the minute you make the right hire and things start to fall into place and it's accelerated when you draft a quarterback that can it work? It can happen really, really quickly when you start making the right decisions.
- [06:24]
Robert Mays
There's no better example of that than the New England Patriots. Yeah.
- [06:28]
Dave Hellman
And like honestly too, what I was the last thing I want to say with like how crazy the turnaround for the Broncos is, it's not just that you have all the Russ dead cap money like stuck with what you've had over the past couple of years. They had to trade to get Sean Payton. Like they had to give up assets to get him and like bleed draft capital. So it's harder to get players. And then still here, two years later, you're already there and you built one of the best defenses in the league. Again, Sean Payton is still one of the best play callers. Like it is pretty remarkable how quickly you can turn it around.
- [06:55]
Robert Mays
And then the Patriots are an even quicker turnaround. Talk about like the five or six years that the Broncos had to spend out in the wilderness. It was most like seven or eight years. The Patriots two years. Two years where they were like an out and out disaster before they're back here and you talk about just the right stuff falling into place. And the Patriots deserve a ton of credit for the turnaround that's happened to go from four and 13 to 14 and three and favored by four and a half points in the AFC championship game, backup quarterback or not, is an absolutely remarkable turnaround. But to have that 4 and 13 season in the year where there was a quarterback draft where you could just sit there with a third overall pick and draft a guy that was as good of a quarterback prospect as Drake May is. Some of this luck is required. Like if you're a team like the jets and you've had to suffer in the way that you have and you have the season that you just did with a first year head coach the exact same way the Gerard Mayo Patriots just did, and you don't have that pathway to a quarterback. You need the brakes to go your way to orchestrate something like this. And the Patriots happen to be very, very bad for the first time in a year where Drake May was available with the third overall pick.
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Derek Klassen
That's my other big takeaway from this matchup is how sick are the other like 13 teams in the AFC? Well, throw out the Chiefs. Obviously the Chiefs aren't jealous of anybody but everybody else in the afc. Like from, from the Bills for very obvious reasons how the Bills are feeling heading into this weekend. But even teams that have been less successful, I mean the Tennessee Titans have had multiple cracks at a number one, number two overall quarterback. The Houston Texans have never made it to conference championship weekend. The New York jets have had cracks at players like this because of their troubles. Teams that have drafted very, very talented quarterbacks like the Jaguars, for all of them to fall short for various reasons or never even really get off. And then while all this is happening, it's the fricking Patriots and then even the Broncos. Like, I know it's been a minute for the Broncos, but we're not that far removed from when they went to the playoffs five straight years and we're in two Super Bowls in a short span. So for both of these teams to step into the power vacuum created by the Chiefs and to a lesser degree, the Ravens not making the playoffs, that would really me off if I were a fan of a rival AFC team.
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Robert Mays
The Patriots especially.
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Derek Klassen
Yes, the Patriots especially. For sure.
- [09:20]
Robert Mays
Let's start with when the Broncos have the ball in this game. I think we have to start there just because of the Jared Stidham element to all of this. You guys both went back and did some Jared Stidham studying. I did as well watch the preseason snaps he had this year. You guys watched the 2023 starts. Derek, what stood out to you about your impressions of Stidham from the kind of the small glimpses we've gotten of him and what that might mean for the version of the Broncos offense that we see this weekend.
- [09:47]
Dave Hellman
Yeah, I think I want to start with some of the things that he does well, just to try to paint, like, the optimistic case here. Obviously, if you're a Broncos fan, he throws a very nice spiral. And I do think as far as, like, the accuracy goes, he's pretty accurate to all three levels of the field. I think arm talent and power, especially down the field, can be a little bit more of a complicated thing, I think, especially deep between the numbers. But he's a really good guy in terms of leading receivers, giving them good opportunities for yards after the catch. Whereas, like, I think Knicks is directionally accurate but sometimes struggles to, like, really lead guys and just let them run across the field. Stidham's really good at that. And the other thing I think that Stidham is good at is he's very quick to get to his checkdowns, which in some sense can be bad. Right. Like, it limits the offense a little bit. But if you're going to be the backup quarterback, like, let's just try to get as many singles as we can. I do think he does a good job of that. And so if you're the Patriots, between how well he leads his receivers and how quickly he's getting to his checkdowns, they better come ready to tackle like Robert Spillane. Those safeties, the corners, they better be ready to tackle in the flats like 30 times in this game.
- [10:47]
Derek Klassen
This won't be overly surprising, but go watch Stidham. At the end of the 23 season, it looks a lot like what the Broncos do right now. And the big, big difference, which I do think matters a lot for this game, is he's just not the athlete that Bo Nix is. He can move in the pocket. He can step up and escape from pressure and to some degree extend plays. Like, he had a couple nice. I think it was against the Chargers, he had a couple nice throws where he had to b up and out and throw on the run, and he can do that. Bo Nicks, full stop. Great athlete. Like, he's explosive, he's sudden, he's fast. Makes him impossible to deal with, and it gives the Broncos a lot of extra options in their offense. Like, you're not calling designed runs for Jared Stidham. And Jared Stidham I don't think has the escapability to make you right. If nothing else, Goes right. But as far as, like, what the quarterback does, it looks the same. Like, you're going to see him rip some digs and some slants, and there's going to be some swings and some scre. I like watching those games back. I was like, these are all the throws that make up 80% of what Bo Nix does in a given game.
- [11:51]
Robert Mays
The biggest difference to me, because Jared said him, he'll scramble every once in a while, and he will make plays outside of structure. Like he. He clears that bar of athleticism. He's not nearly as sudden of an athlete as Nix is. Like, when you watch how quickly Knicks can accelerate, how quickly he takes off, how quickly he gets himself out of trouble. That's not what Jared Stidham is bringing to the table. Like, Bo Nicks this year did not get sacked almost at all. And there are two reasons for that. One, the Broncos pass protection is very good, which I think is worth bringing up when you're talking about how Jared Stidham is set up for success. But the other part of it is Bo Nix had the second best pressure to sacrate in the NFL this year. The only quarterback who was better was Brock Purdy. Like, he does have that sudden athleticism that gets him out of trouble. And you go back and watch the preseason snaps from this year, Jared Stidham took like four sacks in two games. Some of that is playing with backup offensive linemen. But again, he's just not quite as able to get himself out of trouble as Nicks has shown consistently as he that he's able to do well.
- [12:47]
Dave Hellman
Even if you look at regular season games over the last four, five years. Because Stidham played obviously those two at the end of 2023, I think he had some action in 2024 as well. His sac rate is like two and a half times Bo Nix's even in the regular season action that he's gotten. And so part of that is, I think once he gets out of the pocket and can stride, he's fine. Like, he's athletic enough. He's just not sudden. Kind of like we're talking like in and around the pocket. He's just not as quick as a guy like Bonix. And I think that also extends to his release time. Like the ball comes out of his hand slower than it does for Bonix. Like, that's part of why Bonix doesn't get sacked either, is the ball comes out just a hair quicker and he's not ever getting strip sacked, that sort of thing. I do think in A game like this where you're probably going to get a lot of interior pressure, a slightly slower release might actually be a little bit of an issue.
- [13:33]
Robert Mays
One of the crucial things that Bro Nicks brought to the Broncos offense in, like the games where they needed a big performance from the that side of the ball is what he could do with his legs.
- [13:42]
Sponsor/Ad Voice
He.
- [13:42]
Robert Mays
He's done it consistently made plays outside of structure against the Broncos, made multiple plays as a scrambler against the Bills last week. The other area where, okay, we need 28 to 30 because we're playing against a really good offense, what can Bo give us? He has consistently made the throws asked of him down the field in the second half of the year. You go back to the Bronco game, and even at the end of the game, that was happening. And then last week he had three, like, big throws down the field in big moments when they most needed them. That is an area where can Jared Stidham do like a decent Bo Nix impression? Because I think the Broncos are very, very good at providing those opportunities within the offense for the quarterback. Like, those are opportunities catered to you by play design. And just the way that you're structuring things, the Broncos do a great, great job of moving the pocket to find those throws. Like the touchdown to little Jordan Humphrey last week, where it's quarters to that backside for the Bills. They tie down the safety with like a deep dig and then they run Jordan Humphrey back behind it. The Broncos do that a lot. They did it against the Bills last week. They hit the same play against the Jags. That's the type of throw where you can make that throw even if you're Jared Stidham. Like, those opportunities could be available to you. And so how those four to six, we're scheming you up open deep shots down the field. Can you hit them? Throws go in this game, I think ultimately could define how the Broncos offense feels.
- [15:12]
Derek Klassen
And I don't think you can underestimate just how good Bo has been at that, particularly in the second half of the season, because there it wasn't always the case and we struggling with it.
- [15:21]
Robert Mays
For most of the first half of the year.
- [15:22]
Derek Klassen
I mean, we talked. We've talked ad nauseam about that first Raiders game, which was just one of the grossest games of the year, where I think like he went like 2 of 10 or something when he tried to throw the ball downfield. His passer rating on throws of 20 plus air yards in the first 10 weeks of the season was 72 with an EPA per drop back of 0.02. From week 11 to right now, his passer rating on throws of 20 plus air yards is 1.22 with an EPA per drop back of 1.06.
- [15:51]
Robert Mays
You feel that so much.
- [15:52]
Derek Klassen
It's unreal how good he's been at it since. Yeah, like the halfway point of the season. And so I don't think Stidham has to be amazing at it. But it can't, it can't just go by the wayside either. Like, it's been such a huge part of who they are.
- [16:07]
Dave Hellman
And I think to me it's just like how they choose to do that and how they choose to attack it. Because to me, like, I think some of the best stuff. I agree, like the, the Broncos scheming up some of those shot plays over, like, deep over the middle, getting some of those posts, some of those deep over routes that they've run, moving the pocket a little bit have been great. I worry if Jared Stidham has the arm talent for that. Like, I think outside the numbers, they'll be fine because he actually did have a couple of really good touch, like, go balls and stuff in those, like the Raiders games, I think the Chargers game that he played late in the season. But like, to me, any NFL quarterback can throw deep outside the numbers, like, just go balls. It's really more of like if you, especially if you're throwing it on rhythm, like, everyone has the arm talent for that. Some of the stuff deeper over the middle, where your margin for error is a little bit tighter. I do wonder if they can do that. And that matters, particularly against the Patriots. They have the third lowest completion percentage allowed on throws beyond 20 yards. It's like just under 30%. That's against the defense. That doesn't give you a whole lot. Sean Payton's really going to have to dig pretty deep in his bag for some of those, I think.
- [17:07]
Robert Mays
It's funny, you look at the numbers and it makes sense when you look at the way the Patriots play. But at first it seems counterintuitive. The Patriots have been really good this year. I'm like, intermediate throws in the middle of the field. And that's because though, when those guys, like, play quarters, the safeties hammer down on stuff. And so that exact play I'm talking about, not only is that a play the Broncos want to run, where they're running that big over, back behind it against this Patriots team specifically, that's the type of stuff that's available to you because where the Patriots have actually Been worst. Their bottom eight and success rate on deep and intermediate throws outside the numbers. Those are not often plays. I went back and watched, like all of them yesterday, where they're challenging Gonzalez or Carlton Davis on go balls. They're plays where with some sort of route that you're tying down or some sort of crossing at route, you're bleeding the corner out of that and then running something back into it. And so that, to me, those are where some of the opportunities are going to come. And whether or not Jared Stidham can hit two, three of those over the course of the game, I think ends up becoming a huge deal.
- [18:07]
Derek Klassen
A fun angle of this that I'm excited about is it's a chance of proof of concept for Sean Payton, really, like, I mean, obviously as a play caller and a play designer, and we know he's really good at that. But remember, Jared Stidham was one of the earliest signings that Sean Payton made when he got here. And I always remember stuff like that. Like, even now I think about Kyle Juszczyk being one of Kyle Shanahan's, like, go to signings when he first got to San Francisco and what that signals about a player. And so for Peyton to identify him as a guy that he wanted that badly and to keep him around. And Peyton said, like, right after Bo Nix got hurt, just watch. And like, he expects Stidham to rip it and be ready for this moment. And I'm excited to see if that's true because, like, there's a lot of between the infrastructure of the Broncos offense, what Peyton can do for him and what Peyton believes about him. There's a lot of reason to think that this could go pretty well now. You just gotta go actually do it on the field.
- [19:08]
Robert Mays
Straight go balls, Derek against these corners, that's something I would probably shy away from. But they've gotten. They've gotten got a couple times this year on like, double moves from guys on the move because Gonzalez will, like, try to hammer down on some of that stuff. And if so, I think the Falcons specifically, I can't remember who it was. It might have been Drake, London. They, like, had a guy in motion running a rail, and they got Gonzalez with a double move down the field. And so again, the Broncos are pretty good at finding their handful of opportunities a game through structure. Like, just the way that they'll like, do some, like, switch vertical stuff of like, finding these opportunities down the field. I'll just be curious how they end up seeking them out in this game.
- [19:50]
Dave Hellman
And even on top of like the double move stuff they'll do some of that like the fake trip screen where it like the one that Luther Burton actually or the that DJ Moore got to beat the packers. Like they'll do some of that stuff too to again try to get these DBs biting down on stuff.
- [20:03]
Robert Mays
The Broncos this year we've talked about it a lot. They led the league in design rollouts per next gen 96 of them total. Just moving the pocket consistently. The Patriots ranked 29th in success rate on those plays this year. And the other area where I think like on the other side where what the Patriots have been doing and want to be doing lines up with where the Broncos haven't been very good this year. The Broncos finished 24th in EPA drop back versus cover zero this season. That was with Bo Nicks and we've seen it. The Patriots have been up in double digits cover zero wise over the last month or so and even when they're not doing it Derek, it's a lot of mugged up looks where they're bringing some funky pressures. And just think about what the second half of that game looked like last week against the Bills for Denver. Like they're if they're you're going to bring four against them. Even a pass rush that has guys like Milton Williams and has the juice that the Patriots have shown. I still think the Broncos offensive line is able to hold up in those situations, but we've seen that when you start bringing a little bit of heat you can get after the Broncos a little bit. I expect the Patriots to do that in this game.
- [21:03]
Dave Hellman
I really do too. And especially it's been a lot of the mugged up stuff. They're definitely using Christian Ellis and Robert Spain in a lot of that sense and doing really smart stuff with it too. Like they actually ran a Cover 0 play against the Chargers where Spillane like comes up and like engages the offensive lineman immediately pops out and gets a hand in the throwing lane because he knows as well as Justin Herbert ball's got to come out immediately. They also I looked this up because I actually did my video this week that that will probably be out shortly after we have our preview up about what the Patriots have been doing with a lot of their fronts and blitzing and stuff on 28 drop backs just in the two playoff games they've brought in at least one DB that that is insane to have over what like averaging over a dozen plays a game where you are bringing a defensive end and that's just or a defensive back and that's just on passing plays, like they'll bring those guys on some of the rundowns too. And so just the Broncos being shored up, especially on the edges and with their backs, it's going to be pretty huge in this game.
- [21:56]
Derek Klassen
New England's front in general has been so disruptive and impressive in these two playoff games. And talk about proof of concept. I mean, that's against two pretty decimated, pretty leaky offensive lines. Obviously, the Broncos are not that. And so that's a, that is a very fun chess match for this game too.
- [22:16]
Robert Mays
And the last thing I want to mention, because it's important every time you play against the Broncos and we'll see if it continues with Stidham the way that it was with Knicks, where a lot of balls going short of the sticks, a lot of checkdowns and tackling in space is like a huge deal against this team. And you go back and you watch what happened last week, multiple different plays where RJ Harvey is getting a ball spit out to him in the flat, he's making a guy miss. And what should be a play that goes for no gain, goes for eight. And then the big one was, I think it was mims. I think it was mims on that little swing out to the left in the left flat where Cole Bishop just takes a bad angle. And what should be a dead play is a 20 yard game. Like you're gonna, you have to make those plays in space against this team because consistently they're going to give their guys opportunities, whether it's screens, underneath, throws, all of that. So just one more thing I think is worth keeping in mind on that side of the ball. Let's go to the other side of the ball here. When the Patriots have the ball in this game. Derek, the number one thing, the first thing you are looking for when the Patriots are on offense in this thing.
- [23:17]
Dave Hellman
Is what I think this to me, we've talked so many times about these teams that like to play a man coverage and really challenge you. The quarterback has to be willing to challenge them back. And it's a lot of just like, hey buddy, can you make 20 super accurate throws in a given game? You go back and watch what May was doing in some of those instances against the Texans. His pinpoint accuracy like just through a keyhole is phenomenal. The the COVID zero touchdown to Demario Douglas, the one that he spits between two Texans DBs in the red zone for Stefan Diggs is incredible. It's a crazy throw. It was insane. Like for him to put it on there where it's, it's not just that he gets it on him, it's also that he throws it so fast that Diggs has time to haul it into his chest before the DB flying over from the middle hits him. Like just his ability to make all those tight window throws. I think in a game where the DBs are going to challenge your receivers and they're going to force you to make a lot of those tight throws, I think that that's going to show up huge in this game because I think, I think in a lot of ways that can feel like a volatile thing. It's like, oh, a lot of tight window throws. Can you do it? Drake May has proven for four months now, five months, that he can do that against just about anybody. And I do think that that's going to show up huge in this game.
- [24:28]
Derek Klassen
Famous last words. But yeah, like, that doesn't seem to bite. Drake may like guys who are willing to just rip it into crowded areas. Typically, like, you expect bad, bad bounces that can lead to interceptions or high variance plays. But, but I have the utmost confidence in Drake May to throw it into as tight a window as he wants to.
- [24:48]
Robert Mays
Here's the funny part about this. I, I'm, I'm 100% with Derek on like, the accuracy that he has consistently shown his ability to fit balls into those tight windows. At the same time, I still think that's the best way for the Broncos to approach the game. Because if you look at what's happened in the regular season and then into the playoffs, the volatility with him in the pocket, which I think you're a five point underdog, like you need a couple turnovers to go your way. You need some of those volatile plays to go your way. Playing man coverage has kind of pushed him to that place a little bit more often than sitting back and playing zone coverage has this season. Drake made a 4.9% sac rate against zone coverage per next gen. It was 11.4% against man coverage. And then you look at what's happened in the playoffs. They were a really good team, the Patriots were when blitzed in the regular season, but it has been more volatile in the playoffs. He's taken three sacks on 18 drop backs. They have six successful drop backs on the 18 blitzed plays they have over their first two playoff games. And so the Broncos do a fantastic job with their pass rush plan. When they're bringing five, it's not just we're bringing five, everyone's running straight like the intricacies and the creativity with the stunts, the games, the pressures that they bring, combined with his just pension for holding out of the ball a little bit, trying to make things happen against man coverage, I just think that's your best path forward, forward if you're the Broncos. Even if his ball placement allows him to survive in that world in a way it might not for some other quarterbacks.
- [26:19]
Dave Hellman
I honestly agree, like, it is the best way to, I think, handle him. I just, I guess I'm saying, like, I just have faith that May will be able to handle it. But like, with the zone versus man thing, the thing about man coverage is that in a lot of ways it kind of eliminates decision making for the quarterback. It's just a lot of like, is my guy open and can I make the throw? Like, it's not as much. Much processing. Whereas with a lot of the zone stuff, it's like, okay, who's dropping? Where am I reading the rotation right? Do I have, you know, was that guy giving me like a fake look with his zone eyes? Like, was. Was that really where he's going to line up in terms of like, is it cover two, is it quarters, all that stuff? May is phenomenal at that. Like, he's already one of the best pre and post snap decision makers, I think, in the league. And the ball comes out incredibly quick. That's why he doesn't take sacks against zone. But against man, he'll go 1 to 2 to 3 and wait for somebody to be open. But the Patriots receiver, receivers still aren't great. And so if nobody's open, he's probably just going to stand on his spot and Nick Bonito is going to get him or John Franklin Myers is going to crush the pocket, whatever it is. So even though I have the utmost faith in May's ability to do it, I do agree you probably do have to lean into the volatility.
- [27:22]
Robert Mays
I thought the Bills did a good job last week. And the Bills game plan, I mean, they're going to be sick rewatching that game. Like, I thought that the Bills offensive plan in that game was really good. Like, they gave the Broncos offense consistent issues when they weren't turning the ball over. And to me, it was a lot of just misdirection and eye candy all over the place. It's. We're sending guys in motion, the nickels traveling with him. So he's flying out there. We're sending a crosser back behind it. Some of the play action and movement stuff that they were doing just like getting the defense moving horizontally as much as possible. And the Bills are the most motion heavy offense in the NFL. The Patriots aren't that. But I wonder, do we see a little bit more pre smap movement from New England and them trying to lean into that where you're getting displacement from some of those guys in the same way the Bills were able to last week? I don't know the answer, but it's just, it's an interesting contrast between the two styles typically with what the offenses are. And I wonder if the Patriots try to do a little bit more of that stuff.
- [28:18]
Dave Hellman
Yeah, I have no idea. I hadn't actually thought of that because honestly a lot of my favorite stuff from that Bills game was a lot of like getting guys in motion and running like really good man beaters I thought they had in that game. And so I don't know, it feels to me like the Patriots offense is a little bit more like just spread it out, let Drake make Drake may pick a side a little bit or they're just going to block it up and do play action stuff. But that actually is the other thing that I would like to talk about a little bit there. When the Patriots try to just block it up against this blitz stuff, it's not great. And that's where you can get made like kind of stuck in this. Like they're a better versus the blitz team when they spread it out and let Drake may make them right when they want to go like seven man protection, take some shots, they don't block it up particularly well. And the Broncos really get after.
- [29:00]
Derek Klassen
I mean if you're a Broncos fan, you gotta be coming into this extremely confident that your pass rush is gonna give you a shot to make a splash play right. From what we've seen from the Patriots over the last two weeks.
- [29:12]
Robert Mays
Oh, absolutely. That you, you need the pass rush to win you the game. Like in the same way that the Texans were able to last or the Texans defense almost won them the game last week that they were in the game because of what the pass rush was doing. That's what you need with much better play from your offense if you're the.
- [29:28]
Derek Klassen
Broncos in this game, which I am interested to see. I just think it's a, it's a different look this week particularly we shouted out Will Campbell against the Texans and it was the type of thing that could lose you a game if the Texans offense was anything resembling competent. And here you go. Here's another opportunity with the Broncos, but particularly from the Campbell side of things, I wonder, I wonder how he feels about this matchup. And this sounds crazy to say about a guy in Nick Bonito who is a defensive player of the year type of candidate type of player, but maybe this is a shot at a reprieve. Because the guys who have this season and the guys that people thought would give Will Campbell fits coming into the NFL were the big hulking monsters whose hands scraped the ground while they were standing straight up. You know, like the guys over the course of the year, the guys that have given Will Campbell the most trouble. Miles Garrett, Will Anderson, Draymond Jones, Bradley Chubb, Yaya Diabi, Otofe O A in the wild card round. Like, all of these guys that have 34, 35 inch arms just can absolutely hold Will Campbell at a distance. The Broncos pass rushers are really good, but that's not them. I mean, Nick Bonito and Jonathan Cooper both are not guys with these huge wingspans and arms that can, like I said, just dunk on Will Campbell. It's. It's all about speed. And so that's. It's a different challenge. And this could age really poorly. But I would bet that's a challenge Will Campbell and the Patriots would rather deal with than just a guy who is a bigger specimen than what your left tackle can deal with.
- [31:07]
Robert Mays
We've seen guys get the corner on him, though, consistently. That is a problem that are benders like that. And that is what Benito is. And so I do think that in this game, Derek, it would not be surprising to see Nick Bonito specifically or the Broncos pass rush come away with like three or four really big plays.
- [31:25]
Dave Hellman
Yeah, I still think they could too. Cause like, and Will Anderson I think is the funniest one because Will Anderson is long for his size, but he also is pretty fast and a good bender. And he got straight around Will Campbell a couple of times. And so I do wonder if Nick Benito can do a little bit of that as well.
- [31:39]
Derek Klassen
No, I'm. I'm trying to set deep. I'm trying to. I'm hopefully having a tight end on my side as often as possible. If I'm Will Campbell, I feel I still think all of that's fair.
- [31:49]
Robert Mays
Two other just random thoughts about when the Broncos have the ball in this game. One, the Patriots, this year, the Bucks game comes to mind. They've had some moments where they've allowed some like, chunk plays against teams that use a lot of like, nub formations where the tight end will be in line as, like, you know, like a one by three with three receivers. On the other side, the Broncos do that a lot. The Broncos do that at like a top seven rate in the NFL. So that's just one thing to think about. And the other one, the Broncos like some of those receivers and like specifically like Courtland Sutton out of the slot if they play in the red zone. The size matchup against a guy like Marcus Jones is something that I would think about like in the red zone specifically in this game because I, I, I can't remember. I think it was the Christian Kirk touchdown was like a slot fade in that game last week against the Texans. And so can you get a size matchup against a smaller corner in some of those condensed areas?
- [32:40]
Dave Hellman
And like talking about the Christian Kirk play, do you remember the Falcons game? They did a racing.
- [32:43]
Robert Mays
Maybe that's the one I'm thinking about with Drake London. Maybe that's the one I'm thinking about.
- [32:47]
Dave Hellman
They got multiple times where I think maybe one time he was just aligned in the slot, but there was another time where they motioned him from out to in to get him on Marcus Jones and they, I think London scored two or three touchdowns that game doing stuff like that. So that's a great shout.
- [32:58]
Robert Mays
Yeah. Again, they're not that many games. If you look at the Patriots, they in the back half of the season since week 10, there were only two games where the Patriots allowed a positive EPA per dropout. It's week 15 against the Bills and week 16 against the Ravens. Part of that is the quarterbacks they played over that time. They played the jets twice. They played Joe Flacco, they played Jackson Dart, they played Quinn Ewers. But now like they're playing against these teams that are playoff teams and they're still beating them up. So there's aren't a lot of examples. If you're trying to go back and look at where have the Patriots been vulnerable on defense. Like you only got a couple games to choose from at this point. So we'll see what happens. All right, let's get to the next one here. But before we do, let's take our first quick break.
- [33:39]
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- [38:39]
Robert Mays
All right. Rams at Seahawks Seahawks are 2 1/2 point favorites, which essentially means with them at home. This is like a toss up game. This is as good as it gets. Like to have all Bears morning I've had to do this week aside, this is about as good as an NFC championship game can get.
- [38:57]
Derek Klassen
I knew you'd get there. It's, it's so good. I mean, Aaron Shot said it. This is the seventh playoff game in history between two teams that are over 30% in DVOA. It's. I don't know. And it's not to say that, I mean, we've seen Super Bowls be surprising before. It's not to say that this decides anything with finality, but these are the two teams of the season for me, I think, like when I look back on this year, these are the teams that have been excellent the most consistently from beginning to end, I would say by dvoa.
- [39:33]
Robert Mays
And that that same tweet, Aaron Schott said, this is the best matchup of the last 47 years by DVOA. 47 years. That doesn't define everything, but anecdotally it feels like an incredibly good game between two really, really good teams. They played two great games already this year and so the historical numbers would back up how great of a matchup this feels like is.
- [40:00]
Dave Hellman
And I think the two other games leading into this led me to the thought of one, this game, painting it this way, of it being one of the best, like eight playoff matchups we've ever seen in terms of quality. It's the best one in 47 years. Going by DVOA. This also, at least in my lifetime, and maybe somebody will correct me if there's a listener out there who has a better answer. This is the best three game series we've probably ever seen. Like, think about how insane the first game was, how insane the second game was. These were decided by three points. And even that feels like it undersells how close both of these games were. And then now they get to play again where they are in the NFC Championship game. It's the final game going before the Super Bowl. And I think if we ranked these four playoff teams, at least me personally, I would rank them one and two. Like, I'm 100% with you, Dave. I think these are the two teams that have been the most excellent, the most often and consistently the entire season. Like, I just, just. I don't know if we've ever seen a pair of teams play three times in a season and it be of this quality like this with these stakes.
- [41:03]
Robert Mays
Which exact, which one were you looking.
- [41:05]
Derek Klassen
At while you're, which division rivalry was I looking up? I mean, the one that came to mind and it actually, it doesn't pass the test, but 2013 Niner Seahawks, exactly.
- [41:13]
Robert Mays
What I was looking up.
- [41:13]
Dave Hellman
Yeah, that is pretty good.
- [41:14]
Derek Klassen
One of those Games was a blowout.
- [41:15]
Robert Mays
It was a 29. They, they played in week two. It was, we had just talked about this game recently on the, on the show. I was at this game. It was a Sunday night game. The Seahawks won 29 to 3. They lost the second game 19 to 17. And then obviously you get the Richard Sherman Crabtree moment in the NFC Championship game. And so there, that one was pretty good. But the first game did not hold up. And so when it comes to like the two regular season matchups playing into this one, I'll be curious if people listening have a better example. But I would harden to beat this.
- [41:46]
Derek Klassen
I would love to hear some examples because I know, I know we're not thinking of something, but this, this, it's. It's got to be up there if it's not the best.
- [41:55]
Robert Mays
And just think about like how both of these teams arrived at this moment. Like the Rams after they won that 20, 21 Super bowl, which really, even in that moment, it felt like they were threading a needle a little bit. You trade for Von Miller, your offense goes on such a heater in the playoffs, you get it over the finish line, you win the super bowl, it just changes the way we think about McVay and, and Stafford and like everything they did and why they went out to get him, it all is worth it. Like they all, they make good on every single bit of it. Then you have the disaster 2022 season and it really did feel like, okay, like the team is getting so young in 2023. Is there any way that they can build up the rest of this thing enough to get themselves another shot while Stafford is still the quarterback? And then you see what they did over the last couple years. It was a resounding yes, like they're a competitor again, like they're a contender again. We know that coming into the year. But, but what does Stafford's health look like? And so all of these like kind of sliding doors moments about what would have needed to fall into place for the Rams to have a season like this and to be in this position again before Stafford retires ends up happening. And so now you have a real shot to get your second one with him and McVeigh in this five year period.
- [43:07]
Derek Klassen
And it's, it's interesting in the sense that of the, of the four teams playing this weekend, and we know you can't guarantee anything but, but three of these teams probably feel great about the long term outlook. Like, Bo Nix is obviously hurt, but the Broncos and the Patriots have these young Quarterbacks that have proven they can get them here. Most, I mean Sam Darnold just signed in Seattle and most of the pieces on that roster with like the exceptions of Leonard Williams and DeMarcus Lawrence are young players. It kind of feels like now or never for the Rams. And I know like Stafford's got another year on his deal, he might play next year, but you cannot take that for granted. And so the urgency in that building has to be at an all time high. Like this is you have to take advantage of this. You're one game away from getting back. Stafford turns 38 the day before the super bowl. And yeah, and I mean he even, let's say he even comes back. We spent all of August wringing our hands about how much time he was spending in the, in the health trailer and he defied all of our expectations. But we know that stuff is real. Like that's, that was not unreasonable just because he managed to have this very healthy MVP caliber season. You never know what next year is going to bring.
- [44:23]
Robert Mays
Even if he's healthy next year. This was the best season of his career. He was the first team all pro quarterback in a year where you have all of these MVP level guys still in their primes. And I know Lamar was banged up, it was a weird Mahomes season, whatever. Like the fact Stafford just had the best season of his career by almost any measure. And so even if he's healthy again, are we going to see him playing at this level? The, the Rams offensive line and the pass protection, we've talk about how important that connection is. Like the quality of the pass protection with this team often plays directly into the type of season we get from Matthew Stafford. The Rams offensive line was excellent this year. Like it does feel like everything that needed to happen for them fell into place. And will it happen again? And then you go up the road to Seattle and all they did this year was build the best team in the NFL. Like for all we talk about sliding doors moments, the Seahawks defense, we always knew this was possible. Like you watch the second half of their year and what they were in the second half of the them being the best defense in the league shouldn't surprise anyone. I think all of us were confident that they were going to be in play to do it and now they're even better than we would have thought. But the offense, new offensive coordinator, new quarterback, you trade DK Metcalf, you have multiple new starters along the offensive line and every single bit of it came together as the best possible version of whatever you could have hoped. And so all of those things falling into place. And then the kind of beautiful thing about this matchup with these stakes to me between these coaches is that Mike McDonald was hired to be that sort of transformational coach on defense, the same way that Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan were supposed to be on offense. And he has been that, like, he has been everything you could have hoped as, like, the guy who could go toe to toe with. With the coaches in your division. And it really does feel like this transformational thing that has built the Seahawks into an absolute monster.
- [46:13]
Derek Klassen
Part of it is definitely the hiring pool. And we know. So the list of offensive candidates has been kind of picked clean over the years because of the success of people like Sean McVeigh and Kyle Shanahan. But don't you kind of get the feeling that Mike McDonald is launching this copycat thing of teams want this? For the first time that I can remember, the defensive calling head coach like, that play caller, that guy is like, it's in vogue. It's sexy. It is what people want. And I think you have to give a lot of credit to Shaw or to Mike McDonald for that.
- [46:46]
Robert Mays
It's going to be curious. I'll be curious how many teams can actually replicate.
- [46:50]
Derek Klassen
Oh, sure, there's going to be six cheap imitations that flame out.
- [46:54]
Robert Mays
But I mean, you. He's the best defensive play caller in the NFL right now, probably. Right. And you have a defense that has 15, 16 guys.
- [47:05]
Dave Hellman
Yes. That, like, legitimately can play start for other people. Like, Ty Okada was on the bench for them and he could start for like half the NFL right now. Like, and the other thing too, with like. And this is actually true of all the offensive play callers, obviously, we hire some of these coaches off these trees and it'll be like, oh, if you just do a lot of the same stuff they're doing that we see schematically, it'll work. And it misses the point that so much of why this works is like, the very fine coaching details, like making sure guys are playing with the right leverage and they're tackling hard and. And they're, you know, not giving up gap integrity and their rush lanes and stuff like that. Like, it's not just the X's and O's, it's how. How dialed in a lot of the details are. And when you watch Mike McDonald, it's him and Fangio are probably as like, detail oriented of defensive play callers as we've had in the league over the last decade.
- [47:49]
Robert Mays
Or so let's get to when the Rams have the ball in this game. Derek, the number one thing you got an eye on when the Rams are on offense in this one is what.
- [48:00]
Dave Hellman
I think what I wanted to start with is that we know that the way the Rams play offense is that they're their safe play is what they do in the run game. They run a lot of duo. It just keeps them on script. And then in the passing game it's very volatile. They want to throw intermediate, they want to throw down the field. The thing is, and we've talked about this before, the Seahawks make that as difficult on you as possible. And I've talked about before, Stafford is really good at attacking the middle of the field against them in a way that is pretty unique. He's like kind of the only guy who can actually fight the Seahawks over the middle of the field. But they still make it really, really difficult. Difficult. And where most teams have been able to attack Seattle a little bit is okay. If you're going to take away everything intermediate and deep, we'll throw at the backs. The Seahawks have seen more targets to the backs than any team in the NFL. The Rams at 11% throw to their backs less than any other team in the NFL. Like they are not a passing game that like is willing to dink and dunk and chip away. They're going to consistently take their shots. And I think we saw especially in that first game game if a couple of those shots don't go your way and the running game starts to fall apart a little bit, they really don't have that many things on offense. Like they're really good at the two or three things they do. They kind of only do two or three things.
- [49:14]
Robert Mays
So here's, here's what I think is interesting is that I agree with you to an extent. They obviously don't throw the ball to the backs, but they do have an underneath passing game that is actually kind of surprising. Like when you I did a video about it this week. It'll be out on our YouTube channel this week weekend. What's been cool about watching the Rams kind of schematic evolution over the last seven years of the McVeigh era is that they were a play action heavy team and then when Stafford got there they became this gun drop back team. And then over the last couple years they've come all the way back around to being a play action team. And there's a lot of reasons for that. But the biggest difference between the Rams as a play action team in 2018 and a ramp. The Rams is a play action team in 2025 is where those throws are going. So on 41 1/2% of their play action passes this year they've gone between zero and nine air yards which is the fourth highest rate in the league. When they drop back they don't want to throw the ball short. But when they're in some of this 13 personnel stuff they're more than happy to let Colby Parkinson kind of block down for a second release to the flat and then just spit it to him. And against the Seahawks they did a very good job of that in the second game. And I think that's kind of the right, right mode moving forward is like can we just consistently try to chip away with those sorts of plays that are connected to the 13 personnel run game? That wasn't that dynamic in the second game but they had a 40% success rate. They kept chipping away at it. And so I think the short underneath passes are kind of connected to the run game because that's what a decent chunk of their play action stuff has looked like this year.
- [50:50]
Dave Hellman
I, I just, I think if I'm Seattle I'm not that worried about that. Like I don't think I would scared of because I'm not scared of any of the Rams tight ends with the ball in their hands with the way that I would be with some other like maybe Terrence Ferguson. But otherwise like I'm more scared of them getting down the field which they do do some of that in 13 personnel as well. But like I'm just not that scared of Colby Parkinson turning 6 into 15. Whereas I think I would be scared a little bit more of some of the Rams backs capability to do that. They just don't give them chances to do it very often. And even a lot of the stuff they'll throw short is it's just screens to the backs which their screen game can be pretty good. But it's not a lot of we're just going to throw the over the ball, check down type stuff.
- [51:28]
Robert Mays
A lot of those like 6 that turned into 20 completions to the tight ends and there were a couple of those in the last game. It's because there's no one there. It's because that entire area has been vacated because of how guys are playing the run. And so that has to. Colby Parkinson's not dusting anybody in space. But if you can get Colby Parkinson where no one else is around, that's what they were doing in the last game.
- [51:46]
Derek Klassen
I'm Mainly just curious how well all of this is going to work. And when I said these are the teams that I'm going to think about years from now, like the teams of the season. This rams pivot to 13 is a huge part of that. Like, it's been such a cool story that halfway through the year they were like, what if we just put them all on the field and then it became their offense. And the Thursday night game against Seattle was kind of this crowning moment. They hit the Seahawks for 318 yards and four touchdowns out of 13 personnel on that Thursday night. The weird thing is every week since then, they haven't been as good at running the offense out of 13 personnel. And in the playoffs in particular, 30 snaps of 13 personnel. In the two postseason games, their yards per play has dipped from 6.2 to 3.2. So just cut in half completely. The other interesting thing, you know, they scored 32 touchdowns out of 13 this year.
- [52:40]
Robert Mays
What it shouldn't be that surprising because they're running the ball a lot of it down there. And then that's a lot of like the devonte just split out by himself plays.
- [52:48]
Derek Klassen
I mean it makes sense, but it's still. I think it's wild just considering it wasn't how they like, it's not what they started the year doing. And then to score that many touchdowns out of that personnel group. Point being they haven't scored a touchdown in the playoffs out of 13. And they really. They barely did it against the Bears last week.
- [53:06]
Robert Mays
I expect that to change.
- [53:07]
Derek Klassen
I do too.
- [53:08]
Robert Mays
But even with the. So Devonte was hurt in the week 16 game. Right. And so that may be one of the reasons they were leaning on it as hard as they were, but they were. The Rams used 13 personnel on 61% of their plays in that game. And to me, the most important difference is, and this is kind of what I mean, Derek, about just trying to be kind of modest and patient in the ways you're trying to move the ball for most of the game. In that game against The Seahawks, the second time they had 61% 13 personnel. They ran the ball 30 times and they threw the ball 24 times when they played them. The first time it was a lot more 13 personnel runs and not as many passes. And so I think it's just, can we be in 13? And essentially anything is on the table when we're in that personnel grouping. And a lot of it is tied to the play action game. Cause that's what they did in the second game. And I Think I really liked the plan. Like they hit a couple big shots in that game, but just how methodical they were about the way they wanted to move the ball and just saying like, we're going to take four or five at a time here because you guys are going to sit and nickel while we do this. And we think that even if we're not going to be dynamic on the ground because the Seahawks run defense is still really, really good, we can keep making progress. And so I think that version of the Rams offense in that game and how patient they actually were, that's really important because we don't often see that. But in this one it was, it really did make a difference.
- [54:29]
Derek Klassen
I actually off that point, the Thursday night game against Seattle and really against the Bears as well. I think Kyron Williams is such a big piece of this and he's been so, I mean, I know he had two touchdowns against the Bears. It's not like that went under the radar, but his, his performance has felt under the radar in the way that, I mean the Bears only hit two, or excuse me, the Rams only hit two explosives against the Bears in the run game and they were both just 10 yard gains. But the way that Kyron Williams, like I said in that game as well as the second Seahawks game, the way that he just grits out tough yardage and turns what could be a 3 yard run into a 6 yard gain purely through either squeezing through a gap or just rolling off of contact like he has been crucial for them. Rams in week 16 are the only team this year that rushed for a hundred yards between the tackles against Seattle.
- [55:24]
Robert Mays
That's all it was. Yeah, and I think that was actually really smart because some of the negative runs in the first game, they're trying to pull somebody, they're trying to kick somebody out and it's like we're just going to build a wall where we're gapping you out with these like multiple tight end sets to one side and we're just going to run straight downhill runs. And that's what they were doing over and over and over again. It wasn't anything fancy.
- [55:45]
Derek Klassen
And they tried to go outside the tackles on the first fourth down of that game. Absolutely nowhere. And everything else was between the tackles, which you can look at it and like you look at it and say, oh, 39% success rate, that's not that good but go watch it back. And it's, it's pretty impressive the way they were able to just stay on schedule.
- [56:04]
Dave Hellman
You run that volume on 39% like that's actually fine.
- [56:08]
Robert Mays
And again, I think it's about giving credence to the play action stuff you're trying to do off of it where everything becomes tied together. Because that's what was happening where I think a lot of the 13 personnel stuff they've done at other points this year are them trying to take like deep shots off of it. But if you. Because I think that's what people think against the Seahawks specifically. This is why this is interesting because when you're playing 13 against most teams, you're getting base defense and so that allows you to break it out where you can take these big shots off of it. Well, the Seahawks don't play base defense and so you're getting nickel to your 13 personnel stuff. So trying to create explosive passes off of it. That's not really in your best interest in your. It's in your best interest to see can we get a bunch of guys in the box, make sure their eyes are in the backfield because they're so worried about stopping the run and then we're spitting the ball out to the flat in a tight end because the safety has his eyes in the backfield like it. To me, it's just about tying those things together in a way that doesn't necessarily have to be explosive. You just kind of have to pick your spots four or five times over the course of the game.
- [57:09]
Dave Hellman
That actually makes sense to me in the same way that we'll talk about teams who like to screen a lot as like a replacement for the run game if they're using a lot of that, like the short stuff as like replacement for the run game in terms of just we want to be efficient and stay ahead of the sticks all the time. That actually does make a lot of sense to me, especially when we know how. How fearsome the, the Seahawks pass rush can get if you give them like a third and seven, which I do think, like if they get five third and seven pluses in this game, as opposed to only one or two, that to me, like, it's probably the difference in this game.
- [57:38]
Robert Mays
It was 40% success out of 13 last game. I would not be surprised if it was worse in this game because when you go back and you watch it, those downhill duo runs, those guys are getting to the second level in that game in week 16 so fast. Like we're talking about, we're. It's a little shoulder nudge to the first level and then I'm already up on the linebacker and that creates a lot of kind of what turns into like de facto one on ones for the Seahawks defensive line, which they can win. We see them do that all the time. Like Leonard Williams standing up, Warren McClendon in the hole. If he's going to not have a lot of help, we can see that happening. Byron Murphy crossing Coleman Shelton's. If it's going to be one on one, we can see that happening. It just didn't happen as consistently in the second game. But if you told me after the game was over that the Seahawks defensive front dominated this game, that would not shock me whatsoever.
- [58:30]
Dave Hellman
Even with Dotson back?
- [58:33]
Robert Mays
Yeah, even with Dotson back. I think that's possible. Yes.
- [58:35]
Dave Hellman
Okay.
- [58:36]
Robert Mays
Because there are a lot of one on ones created even against tight ends. Like you go back to the first game, one of the duo runs, it's just Parkinson on Newark NWOSU and Nuosu walks him back into the play. Like there are. There is enough talent along that front where if you're going to have three essentially one on one blocks on some of those downhill runs. I do think the Seahawks are set up to win a decent amount of those. They just didn't do it as often in week 16 as I anticipated they would.
- [59:02]
Derek Klassen
And I was going to say it sounds like excuse making, but that's a Thursday night game late in the season as opposed to you're on a regular schedule. You had a week off as well. I don't think that that'll mean everything, but it could be at least a slight edge when you're talking about something as physical as as the run game.
- [59:22]
Robert Mays
We talked about it a little bit with the throwing the ball over the middle of the field and the Rams throwing the ball over the middle of the field against the Seahawks. Derek has mentioned this a bunch of different times and there are multiple plays from the last game where you see this, where Stafford is uniquely positioned to attack that area against this defense in a way that almost no other quarterback is for two different reasons. His ability to move zone defenders with his eyes is fantastic. You go back to the play in the shadow of his own goalposts in the first half of that game where he throws that little dagger to Puka that's just over the hands of Ernest Jones. And you watch his eyes on that play. He keeps them to the right just long enough to get Ernest Jones to take one step off the hash and that one step is enough for him to layer that ball over. And then the play in overtime, he does the exact same thing where he moves him just a hair and that with the ab, with the arm strength and with how quickly you can get the ball there, that's enough to create an explosive play. This year the Seahawks against all other teams, every other team in the league. 05 EPA per drop back on throws to the middle of the field. 6 touchdowns, 12 interceptions.05 is like a top 8 rate. Stafford the Ship Year 28 EPA per drop back 29 of 48407 yards, 5 touchdowns 8.5 yards per attempt.
- [60:43]
Derek Klassen
30% of Seattle's downfield yardage given up over the middle of the field. So 10 plus yards downfield in the middle. 30% of it was that one night against Matthew Stafford. Like no nobody. Baker Mayfield hit him for a chunk in that crazy game early in the year too. Those two, two Baker and Stafford in those two games have accounted for 51 percentage of the 51% of the yards given up downfield and over the middle. Without those two games, Seattle's giving up like 20 yards a game in those instances.
- [61:14]
Dave Hellman
Wild and cause it's not just this version of McDonald's defense. We. One of our favorite games of like recent era is the Ravens game that the Stafford played against them. And I think 2023 when it was Mike McDonald's defense and Stafford was. He's really like brave is almost the wrong word. He's really the only quarterback brazen enough to challenge Audacious over the middle. Yes, audacious. He's really the only guy who is just like, dude, I've been doing it for 17 years. I still have the strongest arm in the league. I'm just going to move you a little bit and trust that I can put it past your ear hole like almost every other quarterback. Unless they really do a good job of tying Ernest Jones down with the concept, which again, that's really hard because he's a good player. Almost every other team and quarterback is scared to actually challenge them there, but Matthew Stafford's not. And even in the first game, they like kind of flubbed a couple of opportunities. Like there was one where devonte Adams was open on like a deep drift route. Stafford threw it a little bit short because I think Byron Murphy like exploded the center right into his face. There was another one where he put like a post route on devonte Adams in between traffic. He's not able to come down with it like there. Stafford puts the ball there over in the middle of the field and if the guys make plays like it's. That could be where they get them.
- [62:30]
Robert Mays
One thing that the Bears did last week and I think people are probably are going to be quick to say, like, well, the Rams offense just hasn't looked the same, you know, over the last four or five games as it looked when they played against Seattle in that week 16 game. And I think that's totally fair. One of the things the Bears defense obviously did really well last week is all the pressures they were bringing, especially those DB pressures, pressures were given the Rams a lot of trouble. Part of me, my first thought about that is, well, that's like something they've never really leaned into that extent. And so you jump on the Rams a little bit in those moments. When I go back and watch the Week 16 game, a part of me thinks I don't want to be blitzing a ton because the last time in that game that's where a lot of the chunk plays for the Rams were coming. Like when the Seahawks would be sending second level defenders and vacating space. That's where the chunks over the middle of the field happen multiple different times. Stafford against the blitz in that game, 8 of 13 for 140 yards. And so even if the Bears had some success with it last week, Derek, like I'm in a place where I'm not sure I'm bringing a lot of second level defenders if I'm the Seahawks and vacating any of that space and.
- [63:35]
Dave Hellman
Cause that only worked for the Bears because it worked on like a, they committed to it for the entire game. It wasn't just like oh, one or two of these like one off cover zero calls worked and oh, they just did a really good, good job of scheming an open guy, an open rusher on this play. It was like you commit to it for the entire thing and you could see Sean McVay was, was spinning a little bit. They were like, I don't know if we have a cover zero plan today coming into this game. And they were clearly spinning a little bit trying to, you know, going to some of those, oh, we're just going to throw the smoke screen, try to get out of this drive. And that that kind of stuff didn't work. And so I think they struggled figuring out what they wanted to do against cover zero because again, it was a, this might happen on every play. That's just not what the Seahawks do. Like sometimes on third down they'll bring zero and challenge you. But even that for them is like a pretty rare change up. And I would be shocked if like the whole reason the McDonald defense works, right? And this is true of like Fangio too, like a Similar style defense. They play how they play. Like they are not like a we're going to do super crazy things and stuff like that. So I would be pretty startled if they have like a outsized blitz rate in this game.
- [64:38]
Derek Klassen
I think it's probably worth mentioning too. And it was really impressive work by the Bears, don't get me wrong. But snowy, shitty field, bad visibility conditions, cold as hell as opposed to, you know, I think it's going to be 40 and clear on an artificial turf field. Like, I don't. I don't know that you would get the same return on investment from blitzing the shit out of Stafford in this game as you did on Sunday.
- [65:04]
Robert Mays
Two specific plays I'll bring up in the week 16 game before we move to the other side of the ball. They Puka had a double move, was wide open at the end of the second quarter and they did a really good job of setting that up. They motion the tight ends at number one, the tight end motions in. So now Pooka's the number one receiver in a condensed split and you can see the safety and the corner to that side really accounting for him running a dig from that split. And instead he runs a double move. He's wide open. Stafford misses him. So trying to get a couple of those. We're like, all right, we know you want to turn the middle of the field into like a snake pit. Can we try to get you because of that one time in this game and that I would be on the lookout for. And then the Xavier Smith chunk play in that game came out of empty. And the Seahawks this year have been an average past defense out of empty. And obviously average is not bad, but it's bad compared to what the Seahawks are in a lot of situation league. Exactly. And so though. And the Rams did it a couple times, the Rams hit a couple plays out empty in that game. And so I would not be surprised based on their success with it. And. And just an area where the Seahawks have been relatively a little bit worse. If we see a couple more of.
- [66:10]
Dave Hellman
Those in this game and like quickly, the Rams don't do as much empty as they used to, but like they won a Super bowl doing exactly that. So like it's in the Sean McVeigh playbook somewhere.
- [66:20]
Robert Mays
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- [67:43]
Derek Klassen
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- [67:51]
Dave Hellman
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- [69:23]
Robert Mays
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- [69:49]
Dave Hellman
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- [69:52]
Robert Mays
Qualifying credit required. All right, Derek, Number one thing you've got an eye on when the Seahawks have the ball in this game is winning.
- [70:04]
Dave Hellman
What I think part of me was, you know, how how the Seahawks are going to be able to dictate getting base personnel out of the Rams defense and how they're going to be able to run the ball because in the first game ran the ball incredibly poorly against base defense. Ran the ball fairly well, got some explosives out against base defense. But to me, actually the more I think about this game, it is how much can we make Sam Darnold dizzy, which Shula has done a good job of, obviously at multiple stops now. And to me there were so many different little things that they did that really bugged Sam Darling Darnold in the past handful of games, obviously he throws the interception to Kobe Turner where he's popping off the line of scrimmage, which is a great change up for the Rams because they'll do some funky stuff, but they don't do that a whole lot. And so I thought that that was a great change up. They did for a lot of especially in the second game they were doing a lot of like if Seattle motioned their slot receiver one side to the other, the Rams guy would run with him. It looks like man coverage. They pop out into zone. They got an intercept off of him doing that. And then in the third quarter there was another incompletion where Sam Darnold sees that he thinks that he can go look to the left side and they have this little stick concept going with one guy just on the little curl route and another one running into the flat. He thinks it's going to break out differently based on the slot corner running with him. It doesn't. He has to turn that down. It's an incompletion doing little stuff like that. And then I think if you can disrupt his timing. I think we've seen with especially because Seattle will at times play pretty condensed if the Rams edge players and linebackers or sometimes they'll roll down a safety, sometimes like Quinton Lake is near the line of scrimmage immediately getting a hand into a chest of that slot receiver and just disrupting their timing getting up the seam across the field. Whatever it is, Sam Darnold like kind of needs things to go in the exact order that they're supposed to go. And so if you can mess with him a little bit in that way. You saw him get a couple of bad plays the last time these two teams played.
- [71:55]
Derek Klassen
I run the risk of making Seahawks fans a little mad here, but have you stopped to consider how much shit had to go right for Seattle to avoid a narrative heading into this game of first of all, the game might be in LA if a bunch of shit doesn't go a different way. And then for the narrative to not be Chris Shula owns Sam Darnold. There's nothing Sam Darnold can do. Because think about, I mean it requires.
- [72:22]
Robert Mays
A Rasheed or a Rasheeper and several.
- [72:25]
Derek Klassen
Two point conversions, one of which being the goofiest play of the entire 2025 to get the Seahawks here. And that's all water under the bridge. It doesn't matter. They've got the home game and they look terrifying. But Sam Darnold has thrown multiple picks in three games this year, two of those coming against the LA Rams. And it's just what Derek said and.
- [72:45]
Robert Mays
Go back to last year. Go back to.
- [72:46]
Derek Klassen
And then obviously the Vikings Rams game. Yeah. So that, that three game sample size, if the Seahawks don't claw back to that win, we would be hearing all week about like can Sam Darnold keep from sinking this Seahawks season? So I just, I think that's interesting to think about and I definitely think it's the number one thing in this matchup is cancer. Shula throw enough at Sam Darnold or conversely, can Sam Darnold overcome that? Because the pressure is going to be there, the stunts are going to be there, the weird shit dropping in coverage is going to be there and you just to have to. You don't even have to make enough plays. You have to avoid making the two or three backbreaking plays that he's made in these games before.
- [73:30]
Robert Mays
I think Part of the reason that they've been able to avoid that over the last couple of weeks for the most part, is that the way they've run the ball consistently in those two games against the Niners, I'm just not sure that happens in this game. Again, the Rams defense is just a different sort of beast against the run and just the amount of stunts and shifting and just like firing linebackers and crashing ends. Like their run game plan defensively is so good and I honestly think especially against the run, I'm like Lambman and Spates just are good in that defense. Like they do a really good job of what is asked of them in that defense. And so I find it harder to imagine obviously the 55 yard Kenneth Walker touchdown in the last game. But down to down consistency, I find it harder to imagine the Seahawks running the ball as well in this game as they have over the last couple of weeks. That being said, I do think if you look at what happened in like the back half of that game last time, third quarter, into the fourth quarter quarter, I do feel like Clint Kubiak was like starting to really get a handle on what he wanted to do and how he wanted to attack them. Like that sequence there, the drive that was in the late third, early fourth quarter when they're trying to claw back into the game, they really started picking on matchups with JSN outside against base defense. And that becomes my biggest question about this game. In the first matchup, the Rams played nickel to the Seahawks 12 personnel like 65% of the time. Last time they played base to the Seahawks 12 personnel on 18 of 19 snaps, Quinn Lake didn't play. So maybe that's part of the consideration. But the Seahawks were really able to throw the ball against those base looks out of 12 personnel. And I really start like they felt like they started to click into that later in the game. And so for me there is like a version of this on 1st and 10 play action in breakers, which the Rams aren't very good against. We're going to play like jsn, having a little space and leverage against those outside corners. Like I do see a world where the Seahawks can consistently throw the ball out of heavier looks on early downs in the same way they really were able to in the second half of that game.
- [75:34]
Dave Hellman
And I think honestly to the point of like making some of those DBs because like their DBs will all click and close on stuff. And so if you can get some of these double moves or whatever, it's going to be but the other one was the A.J. barnard touchdown at the end of the second game where they're, they're just running like this play action. You know, it looks like weak zone to the right and then they boot back into the other way.
- [75:54]
Robert Mays
So it's a Shanahan classic.
- [75:55]
Dave Hellman
Exactly. And. But it's such a good, like these Ram safeties are going to pin down on stuff and AJ Barner looks like he's running that corner route and it just looks like weak flood and then he just bends it back and runs that deep post in front of his face. And so I think just scheming up a couple of shot plays that would. Is probably going to be their best bet because I think too, when you watch a lot of what the Rams DBs were able to do and how they're picking off Sam Darnold, it was a lot of them being aggressive like in the first game. They're. They have a pressure where they just twist. I think Jared Verse, he gets a free run on Sam Darnold. Kobe Durant knows the ball's coming out immediately. He's flying before the ball is even out. There was another one where Camp Kitchens, they're trying to throw a seam route at him to Elijah Arroyo. He's firing on that because he knows that he can get ahead of it. Like them just, they know that Sam Darnold wants to get the ball out really quickly in a lot of those instances. And so if the Seahawks can take two or three times where they can kind of play off of that tendency and make the Rams pay for it, I think that that that's a pretty good avenue for them.
- [76:52]
Derek Klassen
The Rams, to your point, Robert, are bottom five in the league against play action over the last six weeks and.
- [76:59]
Robert Mays
They were dead last in EP paper drop back on play action in breakers this season.
- [77:02]
Derek Klassen
Ironically. I thought they played fairly well against the Bears.
- [77:06]
Robert Mays
I thought they were really good.
- [77:07]
Derek Klassen
Yeah. But it's, it is something that they, that you can get them on over the second half of the year.
- [77:13]
Robert Mays
The last thing I wanted to mention, just when it comes to. All right, what is a really successful Seahawks offense game look like this week? The pass protection just needs to be better than it was in the last game. Like in multiple different areas. You talk about Derek, like when the Patriots are trying to get a lot of bodies and kind of wad things up on play action. The Seahawks struggle doing that multiple times. Last time these two teams played where you got somebody backdooring it immediately disrupting things. Even when you got six or seven in Protection. And then there were several, just one on one losses in the middle of the offensive line. Kobe Turner got Gray Zable twice. Puna Ford I think got Sundell once. And so there were multiple like quick pressures up the middle from those defensive tackles the last time these two teams played. And that you need to pass protect better against this team if you're going to not send Sam Darnold into that mode that we're worried about.
- [78:03]
Dave Hellman
And especially the first game. I don't know if they picked up a twist all day. Like, like just the. Some of the stuff they were sending with Verse and some of those defensive linemen. It just didn't feel like they were able, able to pick any of those up. I think if I had one more note on this, on this side of the ball, I think so. We all remember the insane Cooper cup throw that he makes at the end of. At the end of one of those games where that is against cover two at the end of the second game, that is against cover two. Like, that's an incredible cover two hole shot where you throw it just over the flat defender, just under the deep defender. Sam Darnold in general, though, and the Seahawks passing offense are not very good against Cover 2, and the Rams are like a huge Cover 2 team. Sam Darnold this year has a negative 0.16 EPA per drop back against Cover 2, which is 27th out of 36 qualifying defensive backs or out of quarterbacks, obviously. And then I think what's interesting too is we imagine Sam Darnold in the Seahawks passing offense is like very aggressive, right? It's. It's all about seeking out explosives, all of that. And against cover two down the sideline, you can do that. Sam Darnold's air yards against cover two is 4.5, which is the fourth lowest in the league. He doesn't actually like taking shots against cover two. In the way that we think about some of these other, you know, the Matthew Stafford and Jordan Love and Caleb Williams and these more aggressive quarterbacks. And so I think if they can play some of that, how well, Sam Darnold is basically willing to be aggressive. I think that could swing the game a little bit there.
- [79:25]
Derek Klassen
I wonder why that is. Is it just like the cloud coverage scares people, man. Yeah. An abundance of caution, I wanted to say also, while we've been recording, Mike McDonald did say he's optimistic. Charles CR will be ready for this game.
- [79:40]
Dave Hellman
So that's huge.
- [79:41]
Derek Klassen
Every little bit helps against Jared Verse.
- [79:44]
Robert Mays
All right, that is all we've got. Two excellent games on tap. Very much looking forward to it. We will be back here on Sunday Night Live to recap those games. Would encourage you guys to come join us. For now, that's all we got. Appreciate you listening. We'll talk to you very soon.
- [80:07]
Sponsor/Ad Voice
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- [80:17]
Robert Mays
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Dave Hellman
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Robert Mays
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Dave Hellman
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Robert Mays
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