← The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL
The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL
Divisional Round losers postmortem: What's next for Bills, 49ers, Texans and Bears?
01:14:22
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- [00:01]
Robert Mays
Oh, could this vintage store be any cuter?
- [00:03]
Derek Classen
Right?
- [00:04]
Robert Mays
And the best part?
- [00:05]
Derek Classen
They accept Discover.
- [00:06]
Robert Mays
Except Discover in a little place like this?
- [00:09]
Derek Classen
I don't think so.
- [00:10]
Robert Mays
Jennifer. Oh yeah.
- [00:11]
Derek Classen
Huh? Discover's accepted where I like to shop.
- [00:13]
Robert Mays
Come on, baby, get with the times.
- [00:16]
Derek Classen
Right. So we shouldn't get the parachute pants. These are making a comeback, I think. Discover is accepted at 99% of places.
- [00:26]
Robert Mays
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- [00:43]
Derek Classen
Go to Monday.com and try it for free.
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- [00:59]
Derek Classen
Hmm.
- [01:00]
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- [01:21]
Robert Mays
Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays. Spending the hangover shows during the playoffs this year, doing some postmortem slash look aheads for the teams that lost the previous weekend. That's exactly what we did today. Four teams Buffalo Bills, San Francisco 49ers, Houston Texans, Chicago Bears. What does their offseason outlook look like? What positions might they address? What are the biggest questions? And how can these rosters be better heading into next season than they were this year when these teams fell short? One other thing to keep in mind, our annual listener survey is live and you can participate by going to theathletic.com surve26 Three lucky entries will win $100 worth of Amazon vouchers. So whether you're a longtime listener or a new one, we would love your feedback. So Please go to theathletic.com survey26. The link is also in our episode description below. Right now let's get to those postmortems Sl look aheads with my buddy Derek Classen. Spending today digging into some divisional round post mortems. That's always what we've called them, but they're not really postmortem mortems. It's not why did the team lose? We actually do that in the recap shows. They're mostly like what comes next for these teams. But I like post mortems as a way to explain them, so I'm just going to continue to call them that. Even though that's wrong, it's the wrong.
- [02:45]
Derek Classen
Term, but still feels like the right term. And I feel like anything I. Because I feel like postmortem does a good job of like, you're. You're talking about something that has just been gone. Like, they've been axed, they pushed away. It's over. And so I still feel like it's. Even if it's the wrong term, it's the right term, if that makes sense.
- [03:01]
Robert Mays
We did these last week in the order that the teams lost. We're going to do that again. And I think today that's especially fitting because the biggest news of the day happened to the team that lost First, Sean McDermott fired this morning as the Buffalo Bills head coach. Me and Dave had an initial reaction to that. You can see that in the YouTube channel. You can listen to that in your podcast feed. I wanted to ask you, though, Sean McDermott out, your initial reaction when you saw that news this morning, which I assume happened before you even woke up. So I assume you woke up to the Sean McDermott news this morning.
- [03:29]
Derek Classen
I woke up to the Sean McDermott news. I was up by like 7:15, and I think he'd been fired like 30 minutes beforehand. And so I woke up and that was the first thing I saw on the docket today. But I listen, I think there is part of me that when you lose in the playoffs so many different times in so many different ways, and then to have it happen this year when you feel like there's no Patrick Mahomes, no Lamar Jackson, no Joe Burrow, this should have been the year. I get why they go and fire him. However, I think only firing him and then keeping Brandon Bean to me was a little bit interesting. And then also firing him in this coaching cycle when there are so many spots open and it doesn't feel like that many guys, like, I think what is interesting to me is that for the last two or three years, there's been some bubblings right of like, maybe they'll fire Sean McDermott, all this stuff. And I think the thinking with that was always, well, then you can go and hire one of these offensive wizards to pair with with Josh Allen. Unless you really like Mike McDaniel. I don't know who you're really doing that with in this cycle. Like, maybe you take the swing on Clint Kubiak, but it just doesn't feel like that. It feels like you're going to get more of like Jesse Minter or Chris Schuller and those guys and those I think are good candidates, but then you're just doing the whole defensive thing again. So I just. The whole all of it I think was really weird to me. I still think Sean McDermott is a good coach. I'm not sure I would have fired him, but I get why they did. After thinking that the playoff field should have been yours.
- [04:54]
Robert Mays
It sounds like I was reading Connor Orr's response to it this morning and Connor obviously does a great job with all the coaching stuff. There's a reason that we have him on all the time when we're talking about the coaching world and it seems like based on his initial read on it and talking to people that they are going to seek out an offensive coach, which I understand this happens all the time. You have a defensive coach, you go the other way. I said this to Dave today though. I feel like when I'm dealing with an elite quarterback, like an MVP caliber top three quarterback, it changes my opinion about what you need to seek out with the coaching staff. Because if your quarterback, I always go back to this. Winning in the NFL is winning with Ryan Tannehill. If your quarterback is Ryan Tannehill. I think it's really important to make sure that you have an elite play caller. And it's easiest to have an elite play caller when you have an offensive coach. I've said this stuff a million times. When you have Josh Allen, I think it frees you up a little bit. I don't think you necessarily have to ascribe to that level of thinking. And so this idea that well, the, the defensive guy didn't work so we have to go with an offensive guy. I understand why that happens in most situations. I don't think it has to happen here. But it does seem like they're potentially pushing in that direction. And like you said, it's an interesting time to be doing that because there aren't that many candidates that are those offensive minded guys in this cycle. So I don't know where you should or where you do land at the end of this process.
- [06:08]
Derek Classen
I really don't either. I'm with you on like that. When you have an elite quarterback thing, you just don't need to do this. Like they've proven they can have elite offense and score 27 plus points a game with like Brian Dable. They did it with Ken Dorsey for a while now they've done it with Joe Brady. And those guys aren't like bad play callers. But I don't think that they're of the level of like the Ben Johnson's the Sean McVay's or anything like that. Like you can kind of be able to pick in that middle tier of play caller and still get elite offense when you have Josh Allen. And I feel like now that they're going to scuttle that in favor of getting an offensive head coach and then maybe having to cycle through defensive guys, I feel like that's tough. And I think the last thing that I would say about some of the team building specifically on defense in my mind, the philosophy and like the build in terms of theory of having lighter bodies and safeties who really need to be smart and being like this four down front. That is all McDermott. Right. Like the vision for what it's supposed to be is McDermott, but the player acquisition is Brandon Bean. Like you still have to pick part of the right players and I think them both being culpable there is a little bit tricky.
- [07:12]
Robert Mays
I think that's hard though. I so it's so funny.
- [07:17]
Derek Classen
The first like McDermott is definitely in there a little bit in terms of.
- [07:20]
Robert Mays
We can dig into this, we could dig into this. But my first note in trying to figure this out in the roadmap for this conversation where the roster fell short body types on defense, small, small, small. How much of that is McDermott? The first thing in my not I think trying to pull that apart is really hard. And so this is a very good example to me. And this speaks to the complexity of how you divvy up blame when it comes to these sorts of issues in the NFL. The Bills signed Puna Ford for $2 million two off seasons ago. Look what Puna Ford has done since leaving Buffalo and how much money he cost this offseason for the Rams is like a priority free agent. So whose fault is it that Puna Ford isn't a Buffalo bill making $18 million a year right now? Like again, I just think it's hard. I think it's hard to untangle this stuff. And when you have one specific position group that consistently they've poured a lot of resources into and it doesn't feel like you've ever really figured it out. And I think the defensive line in the front seven overall is probably a good place to point who at a certain point you probably have to look at both parties and their culpability when it comes to the success of that group. And I do. I'm with you. Like, I I think the roster is not good enough and I think that Sean McDermott did pretty good work with the pieces he was given. This year. But I also feel like he has to take some of the blame for why the pieces look the way that they do.
- [08:45]
Derek Classen
He definitely has to take some of it. I think that's, that is why it gets complicated. Like he, in my mind, basically the way that it happens is like because McDermott is putting certain constraints on like what kinds of players he wants and what kind of bins you're picking from as a front office and as a gm. And that is a little bit limiting for Brandon Bean. But then ultimately like they mostly swung and missed on a lot of the picks that they were getting. And a lot of those guys on defense aren't necessarily terrible. Like AJ Epanessa is not a bad player. You just probably want more from like a second round pick. I think like Greg Rousseau is a pretty good player. Still not an ace for a guy that you probably wanted to be an ace. Just a lot of like picks like that where it feels like not bad, but fell probably one level below what you would have wanted. And again, that is probably part Sean McDermott's fault for wanting the defense built a specific way, but them still not being able to find any sort of impact and like high level Pro bowl, all pro level talents throughout any of that. Like their best draft pick on defense is probably at Oliver.
- [09:44]
Robert Mays
I would, I would argue that in terms of investment plus return, it's probably Benford.
- [09:51]
Derek Classen
Yeah, I guess that's true. That's a good point.
- [09:54]
Robert Mays
But in terms of needle movers, Ed Oliver's probably the best pure player when healthy that they've drafted and he was their top 10 pick. They haven't been picking in that range ever since then. And it brings me back to the Bean stuff overall. And I know that so many people today has been like talking about the cloak and dagger type stuff he must be doing behind the scenes in order to keep his job as McDermott loses his. And I know that stuff is easy and fun to say in the moment, but it's always more complex than that. And I do think that there are a lot of reasons to believe that he's the right sort of person to have at the front of your franchise as you're seeing this transition period through. Everyone in Buffalo does watch the Pulas make like really important decisions about some of their franchises. I don't think wants them to make another one. So Brandon Bean picking the coach and not Terry Pula seems like it actually might be a good idea. But when you look at the fact that they have had some hits in the middle of the draft and they've really done a lot of swinging and missing with the early picks, like the first round pick or early second round pick in the situation like Keon Coleman or Boogie Basham, those sorts of guys. Are we at a place where that's kind of just about variance? Like at some point they will hit one of those and it will make a difference? I don't know if I necessarily believe that, but I'm open to that version of the argument. When you look at whether Brandon Bean should or should not be in charge of building the football team, I might be too.
- [11:08]
Derek Classen
But like it's been a long enough period of him drafting that the variance should have helped you out a little bit more by now. Like if, if this was like a three year period, maybe I could buy that. But he's been the GM for a long time and again I don't think he's done like there are that many.
- [11:23]
Robert Mays
Drafts where they've struck either. Like, I think that's it right there because they found so many of these contributing pieces in the middle rounds. But the fact that they don't have star level talent, it's just, it hits you in the face every time you think about this team and watch them play.
- [11:38]
Derek Classen
Because at a certain point you do need stars. Like we've talked about this with so many of these other teams that have gotten close. The packers, like the Bills. It's like you, there is some value of like consistently hitting some middle round picks and getting C minuses on your draft picks and not having them be complete waste for you. At the end of the day though, you still need one or two of these guys to turn into something that can like scratch on the level of like consistent Pro Bowler or all Pro. And they've just really struggled to do that.
- [12:04]
Robert Mays
How about we tie these two things together? There are guys that you know, obviously Leonard Williams is a big time acquisition, but Tank Lawrence, anybody could assign Tank Lawrence this off season and he's played like a star in Seattle. How much of that is the right coach to get those guys to play like stars? And if you bring in a new I again, I keep coming back to this thing where I would be open to the idea if I were Buffalo. It doesn't sound like they are to hiring a defensive head coach because I think that's the unit where you need to maximize the talent more than you need to on offense because you have Josh Allen. So somebody. And I know schematically this might be a square peg, round hole thing, but like thematically somebody like Jesse Minter and bring somebody like that in and seeing what you get out of these defensive pieces or the ones that you start cycling in, do you get better returns if you change what the system looks like on defense? I think that's possible. And so when you're trying to figure out how much of this is the inputs with the players and how much of this is the outputs on the other end of coaching and development, I think sometimes that's hard to untangle and pull apart.
- [13:09]
Derek Classen
It is hard to untangle and pull apart. I still. I don't know. There was part of me that this is also almost like a Harbaugh situation too, where, like, I still feel like even if I understand some of why Sean McDermott can be culpable in some of this, why you would be frustrated after five or six playoff losses in a row, I still feel like he's going to go get hired somewhere and still be a pretty good coach for someone and like put together a good defense again. I just get why maybe they were tired of it.
- [13:33]
Robert Mays
He absolutely should be.
- [13:35]
Derek Classen
Yes.
- [13:35]
Robert Mays
If you look at. And Sean McDermott specifically, if you. And we talked about this with Dave and we're spending a lot of time on this, but I think it's a worthwhile conversation. We talked about this with Dave. Sean McDermott's, I think, best period as the Bills head coach was in the rebuilding period when they were trying to go from a team that hadn't played a playoff game in 18 years to a respected NFL franchise. I think they did a fantastic job in that stretch of things. So if you're the Raiders right now, I'm calling Sean McDermott like, if that. That's the type of job where I actually think he's well suited for it. And I would want somebody like him to oversee something like that. So I'm with you. I think that he absolutely could be the right choice for a different team. That's at a different point in the process. Even if he was no longer the right choice in Buffalo. One more thing and I'm. You might have some others, but one more area of the roster. We talked about the pass rush that just never, never got really got that right. You know, Bosa was good this year, but it's top to bottom. It's still not enough as a group next year. You get Michael Hoyt back, you get Landon Jackson back from injury. You know, maybe you try to add one more piece there. I can understand them being fine in the long run, but when they. That that team rushed forward this year, they just didn't have enough. And I think that's something that needs to be addressed. The other thing, the pass catchers and the pass catchers, to me that is where I look at the acquisition process and the thought process behind it. And you can't lay that in McDermott's feet because of what his purview is. And I think so often when they've added these pieces and they've thought about how they all fit together, it's been things that sound good in theory, but the results never catch up to that. Like when they drafted Kincaid, the whole thought was we're going to be this 12 personnel team that's create, that creates these mismatches. And the theory of that I think was good. But Kincaid was never a really, was never really a tight end. He's still not really a tight end that allows you to create those mismatches. And so the theory never lined up with the results. Painting Keon Coleman as this outside the numbers true X receiver, like that's what he is going to give us. When I think so many people in the evaluation of him doubted his ability to be that sort of player in the NFL that is again a disconnect between theory and results. And then a guy like Curtis Samuel like where you have this of positional flexibility but it never really plays out that way. Like I think the Bills, the pass catching spots specifically, very often there were a lot of things that sound really, really good May through August and then when you actually try to put them in practice, it never comes together. And that's how you end up taking all of these shots, some big, some small on building out that pass catching room and never really getting there over the course of three to four years.
- [16:16]
Derek Classen
And it almost feels like the entire offensive build, it was like they, they tried to zag too hard from, from what they were with when they were having failings in like 2021 and 2022. Like when they first got the Josh Allen offense off the ground, it was all gun. It was a lot of quarterback run game. We were spread and shred. It was a lot of smaller bodies and they were still a really good offense that way. But they had certain failings in the playoffs because they couldn't run the ball. They spent the last two years really being like this more. Okay, we're going to beef up even more on the offensive line. We're going to skirt having smaller guys who can separate a wide receiver in favor of these bigger guys like the Keon Coleman's, the signing Josh Palmer. We're Going to try to dunk on people and drafting of tight end in the first. Kind of a tight end in the first round in Dalton Kincaid and like really going all the way the other end. And that worked to some degree. Like the run game did kick ass for a lot of that period and they were able to get under center and do a lot of the stuff they wanted. But it was almost like they kind of just traded one problem for the other and now they can't really be a gun spread and shred team with a quarterback who is awesome. And so I do wonder like part of them getting just new faces in the coaching staff and maybe some new ideas about what the offense could be. Maybe they find some balance there. I think that would obviously be the ideal outcome here for them.
- [17:29]
Robert Mays
All right, so let's fix some of this stuff with the resources available to us. Isn't going to be easy. Currently 11 and a half million dollars over the cap per over the cap and there are not that many financial levers for them to pull this off season. Specifically they can move on from Curtis Samuel, potentially move on from Dawson Knox. I think he has like a $17 million cap hit next year because they've kept moving his money around. They would save a decent chunk if they moved on from him. You'd hope that year two Jackson Hawes can give you some version of what Dawson Knox has been within the offense even if he was not that kind of pass catcher this year. They can restructure Josh Allen. That's not a ton of money. I think he has like a $15 million base salary. I haven't looked at what his. If he has like an option bonus or anything like that. Some of these quarterback contracts, there's obviously like weird stuff kind of waiting there. Yeah. So that the option bonuses are already prorated when you look at the cap numbers. And so yeah, it's a sixteen and a half million dollar base salary which they could easily restructure and get some money there. But it's not a ton the other restructure candidates, I mean you got guys like Dion Dawkins who's 32 years old, I want to say this season at Oliver, who's consistently hurt. And so there aren't that many ways like obvious to somebody like me who's not a cap expert where they can create a decent amount of money this off season. And so it's not like we're going to be walking into this year with $30 million in cap space to fix a lot of these problems. I think they're going to have to pinch pennies a little bit more than.
- [18:50]
Derek Classen
That, which I think because part of the problem that they're going to have too is why they've been so good as an offense generally over the last couple of years is the offensive line. But they've got a couple of those interior pieces that are coming up.
- [19:02]
Robert Mays
McGovern and Edwards are free agents. Both of them.
- [19:05]
Derek Classen
Yeah, like to lose. To lose two of your interior players potentially is going to be a really big issue. I would probably prioritize trying to at least keep one of them because to me, I think with Dawson Knox, like he's a good player and I think if he, if they let him go, like he would be a nice contributing piece for somewhere else. I think letting him go is like a good, we can just become something different on offense type of move because you already have Kincaid. Jackson Hawes, I think is not going to give you quite what Dachshund Knox did. But you know, he's an awesome run blocker and he can probably give you something more as a pass catch catcher. Usually these tight ends, it takes a couple of years anyway. And so I have.
- [19:40]
Robert Mays
You know what it reminds me of a little bit? This is a weird comparison, but the tight end room specifically, it's kind of like Washington where they have John Bates and yeah, like those are. That's actually the two skill sets. Like Bates is probably more akin to what Hawes can become as a pass catcher than somebody like Dawson Knox. But like those you can build a tight end room with like those two skill sets specifically, teams have done it.
- [20:04]
Derek Classen
100% and like they would obviously have less flexibility and less firepower from that room. But if you are doing that in service of having more resources to either keep your offensive line intact or go spend on some sort of useful wide receiver 2 or wide receiver 3 and make the offense feel a little bit different. I think that's a totally fine move to go and do.
- [20:22]
Robert Mays
What are you thinking about with the past catchers? Like if you had to kind of remake this room?
- [20:27]
Derek Classen
Let. Let's.
- [20:27]
Robert Mays
I have two kind of specific timelines or plans that I have in mind. One is the all right, let's cut to the real problem here and let's leave no doubt when it comes to fixing this and it's calling Jacksonville and seeing what Brian Thomas Jr. Would cost like that. That's something where I'm open to that idea. But my issue is they have so many other holes that giving up draft capital to solve that problem. I think it Gets kind of dicey. But if I'm Brandon beat, I'm making the phone call at the very least because this team needs a vertical stretcher receiver. They do not have that right now. Think about how important Brandon Cooks felt at the end of this season and what going out and getting a 24 year old field stretcher could mean. So that's one guy that I thought about and then this team specifically, I do think they tried to solve their receiver issue in free agency in the wrong year to do it, which was last year. Like Josh Palmer was the best free agent receiver available last year and they signed him and I know he was hurt, but even if he had been healthy, the two guys at the top of the free agent receiver pool this year, well, there are three. Romeo Dobbs, I think I. Roman Dobbs is playing really, really good football by the end of the season. Like the Bills signing Romeo Dobbs and just adding him to whatever they have now, I think they would be much better off than they were. Alec Pierce on this team.
- [21:49]
Derek Classen
Alec Pierce is the one because we're talking about field stretching. Like Romeo Dodge is a good player and will be good for somebody else. That, that's like not really where his value is. Like Romeo Dodge is like a great chain mover. He can win you some like one on ones on the outside it would be. He's not one for one with Josh Palmer, but it would feel like there's a little bit more overlap there than you would want on the two guys that you just spent in free agency. Alec Pierce gives you some real like Josh can just chuck it again down the field type of juice.
- [22:15]
Robert Mays
Last one. Mike Evans is a free agent.
- [22:21]
Derek Classen
Man.
- [22:22]
Robert Mays
You're, it's, it's a tough spot with 32 year old free agents but that's.
- [22:26]
Derek Classen
One where he's still playing well when he was healthy this year. Like he doesn't feel like he really fell off.
- [22:33]
Robert Mays
So I, I would be curious if how much you could solve some of your issues at receiver with this free agent pool because typically it's been hard to do that this year specifically feels a little bit different and a little bit better. Even if there's a chance that Pierce never out of there all that. But I think there are more players available that you can spend on this year to help out a group that I think still desperately needs it.
- [22:56]
Derek Classen
And I think with Pierce, I do feel like if you spend on Pierce what he's going to get in this market, that's really about all you're going to be able to do in terms of spending this offseason like he he's.
- [23:06]
Robert Mays
You would just have to play funny money with the contract. He'd have to have like a $6 million cap hit this year and there'd be a million void years on there. This is a team that's willing to do that though. They have shown a willingness to spend a lot of when the situation calls for it.
- [23:20]
Derek Classen
That's a good point. I just I guess he is your fastest and he's still a young player and he would be like your fastest way to fast tracking. Making sure we get a good receiver core off the ground and not having to try to spend it on on some draft picks again. But I almost think that whatever you're going to do with changing how the offense is going to function and get into a new world with the offense, it's going to take a little bit of some uptime anyway. So I actually don't hate the idea of like band aid solution Mike Evans. You maybe spend one or two more draft picks that and I kind of slow roll it into whatever it's going to be because the offense is still going to be good no matter what with Josh Allen.
- [23:57]
Robert Mays
Here's my problem though with like spending even more draft capital on receiver. You need so much help on defense.
- [24:04]
Derek Classen
Yeah.
- [24:04]
Robert Mays
You still Joey Bose is hitting free agency so again now you're trying to paper that over with Michael Hoyt and Landon Jackson. Some combination of that. You drafted a bunch of guys on the interior without Oliver coming back. So you probably don't need to throw that many resources at that position specifically. But let's look at like a safety and linebacker. Poyer is a free agent Rap is coming back next year. Do you want to roll into the season with Taylor Rap and Cole Bishop as your starters and at off ball linebacker you still probably need another body with where Moana is at in his career. And so I just think that they need so much juice defensively still to say like oh we'll just spend another first round pick or another second round pick on a receiver. You probably need to do that. But this is a team that has a lot of holes and so if you can solve one of those problems with some sort of mid tier for agent contract I think that becomes really important.
- [24:54]
Derek Classen
I guess they don't really and you need two offensive linemen but yeah you potentially need to offense especially if you sign Alec Pierce then I well and don't do any funny money stuff. I don't know how much of those offensive linemen you're going to get back. They also don't have any extra picks, which doesn't make it complicated. They're, they're going to have, they're going to have to take a loss somewhere and accept that something about this team is bad. And so I think it's just an old, it's just ultimately like where do you want that to be?
- [25:19]
Robert Mays
And part of me thinks we make it on defense and we hire Jesse Minter to be the coach, which I've been saying all day and it doesn't seem like they're going to do.
- [25:26]
Derek Classen
I think I would probably rather do that too, like kind of shirk on the defense a little bit and just see what Jesse Minter wants to put together. Give him a year to see if, you know, maybe you hit on a couple of late round picks that he really likes and he can get a better idea of what he wants to do with some of those picks pieces there.
- [25:42]
Robert Mays
Well, when Brian Dabel's the head coach, that's not going to be an option. So I hate to break it to you. No, the last thing I wanted to hit with this team just because this is probably not even a conversation that's worth having, but I wanted to have it anyway. Just the entire discourse around Josh Allen in the last 72 hours is just like, so is so funny to me. Like my question, my main question with this is when do you become a playoff choker? Like is it between the wild card round and the divisional round? Like could. Because if he, the way that he played in the, in the wild card round and the fact that the only reason they were in the divisional round is because of how well he played the week before is that when like you become clutch or not is between the wild card round and the division around. And if that's true, why has he played so well beyond the wild card round in the last couple years, including last year in the AFC Championship game where if their kicker can make a field goal, they potentially beat a Chiefs team that they can't ever stop. In 2021, he was phenomenal in 13 seconds. Divisional round game. If you want to do this with Justin Herbert or Lamar Jackson, where they do not show up with their best games in the playoffs, that is a problem. We should be not talking about them as truly elite players because they have not done it in those moments, fine. I don't ascribe to that necessarily, but fine. To do that with Josh Allen is just not correct. Like he's played phenomenal playoff games consistently. They've won a Playoff game each of the past five years.
- [27:10]
Derek Classen
And this was the first time like in five years they've lost the playoff game to not Patrick Mahomes. Like, like the other times they are like it just, to me it is mind blowing. And also in this game, I know this sounds like we're going to be making excuses for a great quarterback. All that jazz. The fact that the Bills got to the divisional round and had to rely on 30 something year old Brandon Cooks who was cut by the Saints earlier this year. And then McColl Hardman in like the key moment of the game. Like, like the fact that that's what it came down to against one of the best pure coverage teams in the league. And like that's what it came to. I just, the whole choking thing is ridiculous. I know it feels bad that like the other quarterbacks were out of it and they couldn't win this game, but this was not that good of a roster and he dragged them all the way to this point.
- [27:54]
Robert Mays
I don't even need and okay, two things. The he. It's not like Josh Allen is playing with a bunch of Walmart employees. The offensive line is very, there is talent on the roster. And Josh, I don't even care who he was throwing to. He could have been throwing to Walmart employees in the game against the Broncos. He still did not play well enough in that game and he was one of the reasons that they lost the football game. That doesn't change so many of the things that have happened up to this point. Like it just, he wasn't good enough. Last week, Mahomes wasn't good enough against the Bengals in the AFC Championship game that year. Mahomes has gotten destroyed in two Super Bowls. Does that mean that he wasn't good enough? Like when is the line, when is the cut off in the calendar? When it stops mattering? That's my question.
- [28:40]
Derek Classen
I think to me, like, to what end are we even having this conversation? Like let's say, let's say Josh Allen is a playoff joker. Let's just say that are they going to cut him? Are they going to trade him? Do you not want Josh Allen more than you want basically every quarterback that's not Patrick Mahomes. I just don't understand like to what point we would even have that conversation.
- [28:58]
Robert Mays
Josh Allen has thrown 29 touchdowns and six interceptions in the playoffs. Lamar Jackson has thrown nine touchdowns, touchdowns and six interceptions in the playoffs. Like if we want to have this discussion about some other quarterbacks that have not shown up in the postseason, the way they show up in the regular season. Fine. Josh Allen is not one of those quarterbacks. He's consistently had very good moments in the playoffs over and over and over again. And so just this idea that, like, it's the same every year. It's not the same every year. Well, he just turns the ball over all the time. He hadn't thrown an interception in six playoff games before the one that they just played. And so there's always this moving target for, like, why Josh Allen isn't good enough and why we shouldn't be considering this really good player with him specifically. Sometimes you just get unlucky in the playoffs. You run into the wrong teams in the wrong moments, and your team isn't good enough in some areas. And so with him specifically, I just find it so incredibly silly. And again, it probably wasn't even a discussion worth having, but I wish I was better than avoiding it and ignoring it, but I'm just not.
- [29:58]
Derek Classen
I just think that if we're questioning Josh Allen and what he can do in December and January, then quarterback discourse is just, like, fully broken. Like, like, what is the point?
- [30:06]
Robert Mays
He's been really good in December and January for the most part in his career.
- [30:09]
Derek Classen
Other than Patrick Mahomes. He's like, the best quarterback, and he's already the best quarterback other than Patrick Mahomes, basically. But, like, he's been lights out in those two months, and it. Sometimes you just get unlucky.
- [30:19]
Robert Mays
He has 15 playoff games, I think, at this point, and I believe in those playoff games, he's thrown for about 4,000 yards, 29 touchdowns, and six interceptions. And you combine that with. He's done on the ground.
- [30:31]
Derek Classen
He's had, like, an MVP season in the playoff games that he's played. Point.
- [30:35]
Robert Mays
It's the, the, the efficiency numbers are not quite there. It's only 0.13 EPA per drop back. But that even. That includes, like, his earlier playoff games. Like, but.
- [30:44]
Derek Classen
And that's also like, 2020 playing against the best teams in the playoffs. Like, you're not getting to, like, boost those numbers by playing against a couple of shitty teams in week five or whatever.
- [30:53]
Robert Mays
That's. That's true.
- [30:54]
Derek Classen
Yeah.
- [30:55]
Robert Mays
You don't get. And he's been bad against the jets, but. But you don't get your two games against the Dolphins in the playoffs every single year. It doesn't feed into those numbers. All right, that's enough Josh Allen discourse talk. We're going to take a quick break and then come back and chat about the San Francisco 49ers.
- [31:11]
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- [36:10]
Robert Mays
Digging into the 2025 Niners and what comes next when you think about the most important things the Niners can do this off season and the most important additions the Niners can make this off season, they're all already on the Niners.
- [36:24]
Derek Classen
Yeah, they're just coming back. You just need to wait. It's a waiting game.
- [36:28]
Robert Mays
The best player who will join The San Francisco 49ers this spring is Joey is Nick Bosa.
- [36:33]
Sponsor Voice 1
So.
- [36:34]
Robert Mays
And the same. Or Fred Warner, whichever one you want to throw in there. So I that's, you know, we. Injuries happen to every team, but to lose your two best defensive players when the rest of your defense was full of rookies and like super young guys, it just, that's, it's the reality of where they landed. It's not more complicated than that.
- [36:51]
Derek Classen
They lost. In all, they lost the best linebacker in football, they lost a potential all pro pass rusher and they lost their first round pick, Mikel Williams. Like what. How do you feel a front seven when that is the case? And then that doesn't even include all the other like depth pieces that went down for a lot of this season for them. I honestly, If I'm a 49ers fan, obviously it sucks to lose in the playoffs, all that stuff and especially the way you lost, it stinks. If I'm a 49ers fan, I feel as good or I feel as good as you possibly can after having lost the game. Like I feel great going into next season.
- [37:27]
Robert Mays
This season went as well as getting blown out too.
- [37:30]
Derek Classen
Yes.
- [37:30]
Robert Mays
Like to lose a game like that, you feel probably as good as you can after losing a game like that. I'm sure 49ers fans don't want to hear that right now, but I completely understand where you're coming from right in the moment.
- [37:39]
Derek Classen
It feels like, yeah, when you lose a game 41 to 6, it feels terrible. But then you can wake up the next day and be like, all right, right. We're going to get a lot of the offense back. Our two best players on defense are coming back. Michael Williams is coming back. We have most of the picks that we want. We have a little bit of money that we can spend in free agency if we want. Like this, you have a lot of the secondary is still good and wasn't really able to show it because of how bad the front was. Like this is a roster and a team that. And you know, obviously Kyle Shanahan coming back with how good the offense can be like this, I still feel like this is. You probably feel as good as as you possibly could have. Like them in the Bears, I think think are probably the only two teams that lost and still feel pretty good, if that makes sense.
- [38:21]
Robert Mays
It's funny with a team like the Niners, they're. They finished 28th and weighted defensive DVOA and typically if you're a playoff team and you have a top 10 offense and then you have a bottom five defense and we have a conversation like this, you would immediately go to a place where you would say, well, these are all the things you need to do to improve the defense. Right. These are the players you need to add. These are the pieces you need to add. I honestly, when I'm looking at the Niners and like where they need to add guys this off season, I go to the offense before I go to the defense.
- [38:49]
Sponsor Voice 1
Yes.
- [38:50]
Derek Classen
Because if so, let's, let's. I love that because let's do this. If you get Fred Warner back, then you have him and Dee Winters. Okay, that's a, That's a pretty good starting your two linebackers there. You get Nick Bosa and Mikel Williams back off the edge. Okay, that's pretty good. I think the defensive interior was, was not great this year, but you already spent a couple. A bunch of young picks. Yeah, it's all young guys and so if any of those you've kind of like committed there and maybe you sign like a veteran to help out, but that's. You've kind of committed there and then the secondary is like pretty good. Like, I think Renardo Green is a solid outside corner. The Lenore is a good corner. I think both of your safeties have played pretty well. Like, Malik Mustafa is a really good player. Upton Stout, like, maybe you don't love him because of the size. I think for where you got him as like a late round pick and as a rookie, he was really good. Like, do you have reason to believe that this can be a pretty good defense? And I think Robert Saleh, Robert Saleh coached it really well. Obviously at a certain point you're just outgunned. But like they were playing incredibly hard. I thought they were doing some really interesting stuff in terms of like how they were using some of their safeties and some of their nickels. Like, I just. This feels like the defense can be good again. The offense is more just like you want to make sure you have a little bit more depth at receiver. George Kittle's getting a little bit older. You probably want to make sure that you can reload behind him. Trent Williams, same thing. Load the offensive lineup a little bit. But like the defense, man, this is probably about as good a turnaround as you can get without really having to add anything.
- [40:10]
Robert Mays
I think they, they need depth along the defensive line. I, I think.
- [40:14]
Derek Classen
Right, but that's pieces. Starters.
- [40:16]
Robert Mays
Yeah. And, or you, you use the guy. I mean, let's let CJ west is like a fourth round pick, right? Like the idea that like, oh, he's just going to be a starter for us, you don't need to do that. If you want to sign somebody that you think is like a day one defensive tackle starter for next year and then you use this year's rookies to be your depth pieces, that's also an option. So I, I just think that some depth at both edge and along on the interior is probably stuff they need to add this year. And whether that's in free agency or it's in the draft, they have two extra fourth round comp picks this year and so that's like a perfect spot to be building out defensive line depth. We'll see what they do at edge. Bryce Huff, they can save some money if they move on from Bryce Huff. He has no guaranteed money left on his deal. I think it's only like 8 million bucks. And if you're going to bring M. Williams back and Bryce Huff is just like a third DPR type that doesn't need to play on early downs, that's fine. And so again, I just think that there is enough elements of the defensive roster that are probably set up to be okay. You look at the offense, I'm with you. Left tackle of the future probably needs to come at some point. Right? Like that's, that's something. I'd probably rather be a year ahead of that than a year behind that. And in an ideal world, is there any way you can draft somebody in the first round and he can be your left guard this year and he can move to left tackle when Trent Williams moves on, like is that, is there any world where that can happen? Because I think that would be ideal. Because I do think even if Trent Williams is going to be there, even if you're not accounting for the succession plan, the interior. Let's do something here. Like if I say this for like the 20th year in a row, can we get one more like quality body on the interior of this offensive line?
- [41:53]
Derek Classen
They, they absolutely have to. And I, I'm honestly even fine like the the ideal scenario obviously is if you can draft like a, a Tyler Smith situation where he's a tackling college, you move him to guard. And I think the theory there was like he could play left tackle if he wanted to. Obviously he becomes an incredible guard, so you just keep him there. But like, even if whoever you draft in the first round can't play guard for you, I'm totally fine taking a red shirt first round tackle. Like, I actually think that that's fine because you know the offense for this year is going to be really good anyway so long as a majority of the pieces are healthy and not completely broken. And then defensively you should just by getting guys back be like a top half of the league defense probably when you get guys like Fred Warner and Bosa back. So if you just take a redshirt year in favor of making sure that we have something behind Trent Williams, I'm totally okay with that.
- [42:41]
Robert Mays
I think so too. I think you just, again, I want to be a year ahead of that, not a year late on it. The other spot on offense, they need another receiver. Juwan Jennings is a free agent. DeMarcus Robinson's 32 years old. They need one more receiver. And Pierce never healthy. Pierce hall is never healthy, but I just think one more like big body perimeter receiver is something that they need. Obviously you never could have foreseen what happened with the IUK stuff. He'll likely be traded this offseason. I think you'll save a little bit of money there. I don't know exactly how much just because certain elements with the guarantees and all of that, but they, they need one more receiver. And even if no matter what happens with the IUK money and like they could restructure Bosa if they wanted to, it seems like they're going to have like 30 ish million dollars in cap space either way. And so they will likely have some flexibility to make a move or two if they want to.
- [43:31]
Derek Classen
See. They feel more like a Romeo Dobbs team to me in terms of like, yeah, that's.
- [43:35]
Robert Mays
Yep.
- [43:36]
Derek Classen
Like replacing Juwan Jennings, be like he can be our kind of bigger bodied guy, bully a little bit, just win at the sticks like that. That to me feels more like the Romeo Dobs team.
- [43:44]
Robert Mays
I actually really like that. I think, I think Romeo Dobbs is like an option for them on the outside to go along with pierce. All Kittle McCaffrey. Like I actually do think that makes a lot of sense. That's a, that's a fun one. But other than that, like there Wasn't that much other stuff that came to mind in terms like what I wanted to talk about with this team. It get. You get blown out in the divisional round. And I think for a lot of different organizations, that would bring you to a place where, man, we got to ask some hard questions about where we're going. And maybe I'm being naive, but I just don't. It's not how I feel about this team right now. Like, for the second year in a row, they have a disappointing kind of end. And I, I feel better about Brock Purdy today than I did at the beginning of the season for the second year in a row.
- [44:28]
Derek Classen
And you feel good that they'll be good next year because, you know, Shanahan always gets them there. And like, we like the defensive play caller now that Sol is back in the building. Like, they just. I think with almost all of these, the reason it doesn't take that long is we're looking at some of these teams and it's like, why did it go wrong for them? What could they have done differently? All this stuff. Stuff with the Niners, we're looking at them and we're like, it's kind of a miracle they got here. Like, we don't have to really, like, pick apart what went wrong. Like, it's a miracle they even got the team here. We'll see how far they can take it next year when they get some guys back.
- [44:56]
Robert Mays
All right, let me play devil's advocate. Is there something we're hand waving here that we should be a little bit more worried about than we are. What is the element of this? We're hand waving that might come back and look really stupid in a year.
- [45:09]
Derek Classen
To me, it's only if both sides of the interior, they can't do anything. Like, if they don't do enough to sign like a veteran and stopgap guy to help them along the defensive interior and neither of those rookies take a step, you will probably get run on. Even for as good as like the linebackers are, you're probably going to get run on and that's going to be an issue. And then again with the, with the offensive line, let's say Trent Williams takes a step back and whatever rookie they maybe take to help them there doesn't give them anything. Let's say maybe they try to make a move at center or one of the guard spots and that guy isn't very good. Like, I do think there is a world where maybe some of the offensive line stuff starts to fall apart. If Trent takes a little bit of a step back because he did look a little bit slower to start this year. And then obviously he gets banged up a little bit. Like that's got to come at some point. But I think at least with the offensive side of the ball, like, I have so much institutional faith in Kyle Shanahan that like, they'll figure something out.
- [46:00]
Robert Mays
Let's get to our next team here, the Houston Texans. They're in a fascinating spot. Like it. When you think about where they are in, like the building process and how last offseason went compared to where they are right now. You know, the Texans have six picks in the first four rounds. That's pretty good because they cause the Tunsil trade.
- [46:21]
Derek Classen
Yeah.
- [46:21]
Robert Mays
So they have an extra two. They have an extra four. So they have six picks in the first four rounds. They have four picks in the top 100. And so they have this like cash of draft capital to build out certain parts of the roster, which. That's really nice. They also are $11 million over the cap right now. Like, we. What's going on with the quarterback almost makes everything else feel moot to an extent. And so this is a team where there's so much to really like about where they are, but there also doesn't feel like there's a really clear roadmap to how this immediately gets better. And I think a large portion, a large portion of that is the black cloud that kind of hangs over the way that the quarterback played over the last two weeks.
- [47:04]
Derek Classen
And I think to me this was like what had happened to them over the last like six, six weeks of the season to me was like the worst case scenario for what you tried to do with the offensive line, where you are scrapping everything, you're losing a really, really good left tackle, you're putting in a lot of stopgap options, a lot of young players, and by the end of it, even if they had a couple of nice games like the Steelers game or whatever, they ultimately got the quarterback smashed. And we're still a very bad offensive line. And I think now it's cool that they have all these picks, that they're going to be able to potentially slow build this thing up. But it's going to take a couple of years. Like, they scrapped this down and I think they hoped that in the immediate future it would be like we could be the 23rd, 24th best offensive line and that would kind of like bridge us to getting this new era of the offensive line. That's not what happened. And now you're in a spot where you really, really do have to go and spend all of these resources to me on the offensive line. Even if you do have some issues elsewhere, like there's going to be some defensive pieces that you maybe want to replace, especially like depth wise and you have a couple of older players like Daniel Hunter that maybe they're to going going to have to start thinking about. But ultimately this to me is like they really went all out the last couple of years. They've scrapped it down and now they're feeling it and they're going to have to to me fix the offensive line because that's, you know, we talked about it on the recap show like what has gone wrong with CJ Stroud and he's obviously very culpable in a lot of this and some of the decisions that he's making. Some of the new mistakes. To me it's ultimately like if we can fix the offensive line that that gives it a lot more of a foundation that he can start to get get his legs back under him again. Again.
- [48:33]
Robert Mays
They get they did get to a place by the end of the year where the last kind of iteration that they had tinkered with where it was Titus Howard at left guard and Trent Brown at right tackle, it was working better than it had at earlier points in the season. Well, Ed Ingram and Trent Brown are both free agents, so now you're in a spot pretty old. He's absolutely Trent Brown being like their where they them landing on him as their starting right tackle at the end of all of this experimentation is kind of a very strange and surprising place for them to have ended up. And the fact that he didn't play in that game and then now you get worse in two spots and you're moving Titus Howard around. It speaks to where that team was at that when they didn't have Trent Brown in the division around it was like oh man, we're really noticing this. So they need to two new starters period. And so they have resources to go out and find those guys. But you still need to replace two starters along the offensive line. Other than that, on offense I think you need some sort of innings eating early down running back. Right. Like Woody Barks was never supposed to be that for you. My assumption is they move on from mixing this off season. They'd save like $8 million if they did that. So you find that somewhere. But other than that, I mean the pass catchers are in a spot that what else do they need? Like I Jaylen Noel think steps in for what Kirk was giving you, hopefully. And it's Noel Higgins and Nico Collins, you know, plus some of the depth pieces that you have. It seems like that group overall is in a pretty decent spot.
- [49:57]
Derek Classen
I 100% agree. Like, I actually really thought that, you know, Jaden Higgins was a guy that I think I was not as super high on coming into it, but I thought he actually played really well for them. Again, if Jalen Noel can just be what Christian Kirk was, I'm fine with that. I think because of some of the commitments they have at tight end. I. I would like a little bit more juice at that spot, I think even than running back, truthfully. But I don't know how they would want to address that. I don't know if that would be like a draft pick. I don't know if they to go sign somebody, but I would probably want a little bit more juice there just because especially how much of the passing offense tries to operate over the middle of the field. I think that that would be fun. But this to me is like, the pass catchers are fine. If we can fix the offensive line, I think that goes a long way in because. Because to me, the issue with the Houston Texans offense and why you had C.J. stroud playing the way that he did, where he's not letting plays die and he's getting frantic in the pocket. The offense has zero easy buttons. Like, there's no. There's nothing they did that was like we can just get our quarterback into second and one, or we can consistently scheme up X, Y and Z. And it's because they can't pass protect when they want to and they can't run the ball. And so I think if they fix that, it really does like, solve a lot of issues. Because I know there were certain points where it's like Ed Ingram is kicking ass in the run game, but game to game, the run game was still really bad. And he still didn't help them at all, really, in pass protection. And so this to me is like center to right tackle. If they can upgrade that, that pretty much does everything they need on offense. I. I think to me, like, what they do with C.J. stroud's contract is the most interesting part, like in terms of picking up his. You pick up the option. You have to pick up the option.
- [51:27]
Robert Mays
Yeah.
- [51:28]
Derek Classen
I just wonder how much hemming and hawing they're going to do and how much like, weird reporting we get. I think you absolutely have to pick up the option.
- [51:34]
Robert Mays
I think it's more about when you start the extension conversations because this is a team that has been very quick to extend its young players. Think about how early the Stingley extension happened. Mo Anderson is going to be extension eligible. This eligible this off season. I would bet pretty heavily he gets one as soon as they can possibly give him one. The fact that they're probably going to wait on Stroud tells you just how much things have changed since his rookie year. And we spent a lot of time talking about this last night. I want to revisit it just a little bit. Let's say the offensive line gets to a place where by the end of next season they're the 16th best offensive line in the week. We have these pass catchers that I think absolutely clear the bar. Give this team, put this team in a pretty good spot. How confident are you right now that CJ Stroud comes out on the other side of this as like a long term? I'm paying him $50 million a year. I think we can be consistently competitive with him at quarterback guy.
- [52:32]
Derek Classen
I think after his rookie year, I think we thought maybe there was a chance that he could be one of those guys who cracks into like top five or six. Like we really thought maybe he had like a Joe Burrow scene. I'm honestly probably like ship has sailed a little bit on that. But in terms of him being a guy who can consistently be like quarterback 10 in the league and give you like a really, really high powered offense, I'm pretty confident that he can still get there like seven out of, I would say at least a seven out of ten that he can get there. Because again, I do think a lot of this comes down to over the last two years he has been literally like bad play has been beaten into him by what he's had to deal with with the offensive line and really carrying so much of the burden of the offense having to move the ball. And so I really do think if they can fix the offensive line, give him some more easy buttons, take some of the burden off, I do think that he can be a pretty damn good quarterback.
- [53:19]
Robert Mays
Again, you think some of these bad habits and these bad tendencies that have crept in, you think these are things that can get fixed?
- [53:28]
Derek Classen
I think so because. Because so they're frustrating, but they are not to me inherent to who he was as a quarterback. And so that makes them really frustrating now. And maybe there is scar tissue that he never gets over. But like when he came into the league and when he was good, he wasn't a guy who dropped his eyes and ran all over inside of the pocket. And he wasn't a guy who was so panicky and letting like not letting plays die. He used to be willing to do that. He used to be able to throw the ball away. He used to be able to stand in his spot on the pocket. And so I really do think if they fix the offensive infrastructure and make him feel a little bit more safe and not like every single play we have to get 30 yards here. I actually, I do think that he can go back to playing pretty good football again.
- [54:10]
Robert Mays
I hope that's true. I've done a lot of thinking about it over the last couple weeks as we've watched him play this way. And I mean, no, it's no secret, like I loved him after his rookie year.
- [54:20]
Derek Classen
How could you not? He was awesome.
- [54:22]
Robert Mays
And I, and I, I think I've tried to be better about this and I've looked at some of the guys, I've pushed very hard, very quickly and wondered, okay, like what was wrong with that process and maybe why did I fall in love with those guys and think that they belonged in a different conversation than they might have. And I think that oftentimes, and this is a whole different discussion, right? Like, I think it's a discussion I want to have about Bo Nix at some point and about some of these other guys. Like how aesthetics play into what people like us want out of quarterbacks is a really interesting discussion. And I think with Stroud specifically, when I watched him play as a rookie, there were a lot of things aesthetically about the way that he played the position that were really attractive. And I think that just he's a beautiful thrower of the football. And that still is true in some of these moments. Like he made a throw against the Steelers where he just the touch and the placement on like an outside, the numbers throw from him. He's still. It's as pretty as it is with anybody. And I think sometimes, and I won't speak for other people sometimes I can overrate how important that is to what it is to be, to be a good quarterback and to play quarterback in the NFL down to date. But even if I was over indexing for some of that stuff and just seeing these like flat footed arm changing arm angle throws in the pocket in my sleep after his rookie year, I still think he has devolved as a player from what he was then. It's not as if I was, we were, it was a total mirage of what was happening then. Maybe we accelerated the conversation about him, but that player is not the player that we watched yesterday. And for that to be the case where it's not. It's not like he didn't just develop and progress from where he was as a rookie, is that he's actively worse. That's just a spot that, to me, I walk away from that being afraid at, like, the trend of where this is going and whether or not he can pull out of it.
- [56:21]
Derek Classen
It's concerning. But again, I just. He's so young and the highs were so high, and for him to be making mistakes that, again, to me, were not inherent to who he was. Where, like, I look at some of the ups and downs that Baker made.
- [56:35]
Robert Mays
Doesn'T that make it scarier, though, the fact that they weren't inherent to who he is and now they exist, doesn't that make it more worrying?
- [56:43]
Derek Classen
I mean, maybe, but I just feel like, to me, like, that's just, again, not how he. I don't know. I don't think that that's as scary. Like, I think if this continues for multiple years, then, yeah, you probably chalk it. But I just. Just. I do not feel like he came into the league with these issues, and I feel like it's been beaten into him so bad that if you can, again, to me, just fix the offensive line and environment that he's working with, I really don't think it's that crazy to get back him. Get him back to the spot that he was early on in his career.
- [57:12]
Robert Mays
I hope you're right and I. And I don't disagree with you. I think when you watch things materially change around a quarterback, we can see them operate differently within the pocket. I mean, like. Like the progress that we've seen from Sam Arnold over the last few years, like, it. That it can happen when you're put into better circumstances. And so I hope you're right and I think there's a chance you are right. I just. I don't know what I watched over the last couple weeks, I just find really, really worrying. And if they don't fix what's happening up front, I just am concerned that we see this kind of continue at the rate that it's going. The last thing we didn't really talk about this, the defense overall, I mean, obviously it's one of the best defenses in the league, if you had to think about, and I've got a couple examples here, but just some of the tweaks you would make to the defensive roster heading into next year with some of those available resources. Where do you think the defense can Get a little bit better and maybe a little bit deeper moving forward.
- [58:03]
Derek Classen
I think to me it's just making sure you have insurance primarily off the edge. Like again Daniel Hunter is getting, is getting a little bit older. And then I would say just making sure to me it really is just like depth along the front four. Like actually I think at linebacker you're totally fine.
- [58:16]
Robert Mays
Fine.
- [58:17]
Derek Classen
The cornerback room you're obviously pretty fine. Like I mostly think it is to me just like making sure. Because again their front for the most part this year was like pretty healthy. And so I think just making sure you have insurance there, that to me is the biggest thing.
- [58:29]
Robert Mays
And Rankins and Bartnett are both free agents and so even your depth pieces from this year are guys that probably need to be replaced. Safety I would say is another area where like you could one probably have a new starter there and be so.
- [58:41]
Derek Classen
Young there that I'm at least willing to like if they wanted to play the string out there because what was it? Jalen Reed like missed a lot. And I know he wasn't like a first round pick or anything like that, but I do think that they were excited about him and wanted him to play. So at least at that spot I'm like willing to let them play out the string there if they wanted to.
- [58:58]
Robert Mays
Yeah, it's I think just a lot of depth across the board. And again, when you have six picks in the first four rounds, I think you're pretty well equipped to build up the depth in some of those areas and it seems like like they'll have opportunities to do that. All right, let's take one more quick break and then come back and chat a little.
- [59:13]
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- [63:39]
Robert Mays
All right, let's dig into this. The Chicago Bears heading into the off season currently $4 million over the cap per over the cap. There are some ways that they can get around that, but overall I think it's a good reminder that this is a team that has spent and not necessarily in the best ways. Grady Jared has a $19 million cap hit next year that you can't really get out of. Diode Dangbo has a 20 plus million dollar cap hit next year that you can't really get out of. The two moves that when you look at the cap numbers for the players that I'd be most interested in how they're going to handle that. The DJ Moore conversation will be one that starts immediately after that play last night. But that's also been something that I think people paying attention to this team have been thinking about for a while. They would save $16 million if DJ Moore is traded this off season. The acquiring team, he has a $23 million base salary so I don't think you're going to get much for him. Like I think this would be like a late round, whatever. It would mostly be as a team willing to take on that money. But if they do, you save $16 million against the cap for a team that does need to find some cost cutting moves somewhere along the way and.
- [64:45]
Derek Classen
I think that they should because I just think like, like to me what makes this Bears seat like season and them moving forward like they are into me a Similar boat with the Niners where like you lose this game, it sucks, but like you still feel pretty good about how this thing is going to move forward. And I know next year there's a couple of like regression candidates. Stuff like them obviously with all the turnovers and stuff like that. But when you look at the foundation of the head coach, the quarterback, Colston Loveland, the offensive line mostly coming back intact, like, I just feel like you feel so good about, about things moving forward. I think letting DJ Moore go, even if he's still like he was a capable player for them for a lot of stretches of the season. I know there's been a lot of frustrations, but he was a capable player for them. I would still be okay them moving on, kind of replacing him with a lower tier vet. You give Luther Burden some more of those snaps and like just moving the offense forward that way. I don't feel like they have to be tied to DJ Moore, even if they think he can still be like a pretty useful player in the offense.
- [65:41]
Robert Mays
I'm with you. I just think that it's hard to justify what he's going to cost for what sort of role he has within the offense. Just difficult to do that. I mean, there were games where he's getting three or four targets when everybody's healthy and even there were stretches where Rome wasn't even playing and he was getting three or four targets. And it's just hard to do that for a guy that I think is going to cost like $28 million against the cap this year. The other one, and you and I have talked about this, Tremaine Edmonds has a $17 million cap hit next year. They save $15 million if they decide to move on from Tremaine Edmonds. I don't think Trey Amendments is a bad player. $17 million is a lot to pay a non like superstar off ball linebacker. And so I think that's at least something you talk about if you're a team that doesn't have an overwhelming amount of resources.
- [66:26]
Derek Classen
I don't think it would be that crazy. And like, I guess it would be in a tricky spot because like TJ Edwards is getting a little bit older and he's been banged out pretty consistently.
- [66:33]
Robert Mays
Yeah, that's, that's, that's part of the issue.
- [66:35]
Derek Classen
And so then if you have that issue and then Tremaine Edwards is gone and like even if when they paid them, they were probably overpaying for the quality of play overall that they got from them, it's still a Steep drop off to go from those two to whatever you would probably be replacing with them with. I do think if they wanted to do that, I would get it. But I think I would be perfectly okay if they just kind of played the string out with Tremaine Edmonds. Even if he has like some really, really frustrating moments, I do at least think like what he can give you in terms of coverage and in terms of his size does actually work well in that defense, in Dennis Allen's defense. And I do think if the front play ahead of him is a little bit better. We saw at times when he was in Buffalo, like when the front play was really good, he triggers a little bit faster and he will get into the back. That just obviously wasn't really the case this year with Chicago.
- [67:22]
Robert Mays
So let's dig into that. That's obviously in my mind that is the area of the roster that needs addressing. The problem is you've committed so many resources to that position group specifically that what can you really spend, especially like in free agency on a player at those positions? Like again, you have a combination of sweat and odangbo that against the cap next year are going to make like like $48 million or something like that. And you've already paid for Grady Jarrett. And so where they seek out help there, I feel like that's just something where you take a couple bites at the draft, especially high in the draft and you see if you can stumble into like a true high end pass rusher like as part of that process. Because I don't think this is a situation where it's going to be tempting to oh, can you sign Trey Hendrickson or can you trade for Max Crosby? I, I'm just not sure I think you should be in the market to do either of those things or even.
- [68:19]
Derek Classen
If you could be, they can't overleverage like that. Like I just don't think there's any reason to. And I under. I would understand why some people would think that like you get so close this year, right? Like let's just make the move. But that feels really dangerous to me.
- [68:31]
Robert Mays
I agree.
- [68:31]
Derek Classen
That feels really, really dangerous to me. Whereas like I actually take the opposite end where kind of like I said at the top when you have what feels like such a clear foundation in the offense with the quarterback, you have a star tight end like Roma Dunes is a good player. Luther Burden solid and the play calling head coach. I actually feel like it's okay if you take a breath and take like a little bit more of the slow approach like with trying to rebuild this roster and so on the defense. Yeah, we don't have to go out and get a Max Crosby. Let's take a couple of swings especially to I actually think Dennis Allen having multiple times been a head coach and probably not going to get a head coaching job anytime soon because of that works in their favor where I think now they actually have time to take some of these defensive resources that they have and some of the capital and take some of these young players and build a defense that is like clearly in his image, which I actually think like you have such a clear vision moving forward for what they want to do there and they have some resources to do it. So I actually hope they don't over leverage themselves too hard into this off season.
- [69:29]
Robert Mays
If you go into next year, let's say you use your first round pick on an edge rusher just hypothetically. So then you'd go into next year you'd have sweat Odangbo coming off a serious injury and I think that's obviously something to think about. We'll see what his health outlook is. You have Austin Booker as like a third depth piece plus whoever you drafted in the first round and so you could go four deep at that spot. And the hope is that guy you draft high can become like a real difference maker for you on the interior. Dexter, you have Shemar Turner, who you drafted in the second round last year, was hurt for like a good majority of this season. So you have that. Those two plus Grady Jarrett. I think that's an area where you could also justify like if you love a guy early in the draft draft. I don't think the current makeup of that room should prevent you from doing anything there. But one like very important investment along the defensive line with draft capital this year I think is worth. Is worth making it one of those two spots.
- [70:24]
Derek Classen
I have a question for you. Obviously I agree they, they should focus a lot of their resources primarily up front. I think a lot of the issues that they had on defense trickled down from the front not being very good. What do you do at corners this offseason? I honestly. Outside corner spot. Do you do anything?
- [70:41]
Robert Mays
I don't think you have to. Really?
- [70:43]
Derek Classen
Really.
- [70:44]
Robert Mays
I mean I will. Let's see. I'll. We'll see what ends up happening at that second outside corner spot. Cause Tyreek Stevenson's still under contract and so if the. And then Terrell Smith, who I think had had shown some flashes for them was hurt all year this year. And so if you roll into the season with Jalen Johnson and some combination of like Terrell Smith and Tyreek Stevenson at the outside corner spots. With Kyler Gordon coming back healthy, I think corner is a place where you might be okay. Safety is the more concerning one because Brisker and Kevin Byard are both free agents. So what you do at safety, to me is a much more pressing question and conversation than it is a corner. Why? How do you feel about it?
- [71:25]
Derek Classen
I would like competition. Like, I think Terrell Smith has been fine off the bench for them at certain points. I think Stevenson a little bit earlier in his career showed some moments, but that feels, feels to me like I would still want one more body there to really push the issue because it does feel to me like if the turnovers really don't start coming the way that they did this year, you really, really start to feel how weak they were at that position. And I think you're making some low, low probability bets and hoping that a lot of those guys just come back or bounce back.
- [71:56]
Robert Mays
I think that's reasonable. When you say competition, do you mean like a big swing or a big investment? Or is this like a day to pick?
- [72:03]
Derek Classen
Yeah, it's like a day two pick. Like just get a little bit more juice in there. Like it doesn't. They don't have to go sign the second highest cornerback, whoever's going to be in this market. It doesn't have to be that. I just would like another guy in the mix.
- [72:16]
Robert Mays
I think just refreshing all of the positions you have on defense with some sort of like safety, linebacker, like anything. I am not in a place and I don't think any team should ever be in this place where, well, the offense is set. We're not going to do anything there. There are two things that I think need to be addressed or need to be in front of my mind. Interior, offensive line, depth. Like they, Luke Newman was some guy they drafted this year. But we talked about this. Offensive line health is probably not going to be where it was last season. Trying to insulate yourself from that as much as possible. So trying to build up depth on the offensive line I think should be a priority. And then the big question, this is the unfortunate question. If Tropillo doesn't get hurt and he doesn't get the specific injury that he gets, you're going to roll into next season. Depending on how you want to designate DJ Moore. With all 11 of your offensive starters back now you have to plan for what left tackle has to look like in a world where he does not Come back healthy. And so does that mean you sign, like, some sort of stop gap? Like, I was looking at free agent options available today. Like, do you go out and try to get like a swing guy like Josh Jones and just say, all right, if it takes a month and a half, can we live with Josh Jones at left tackle again? That's just like a placeholder name. Kieran Magazi, who they drafted in the third round a couple years ago, he was hurt for most of this season. So if you're in a place where. And I think Theo Benedict is a restricted rights free or is an exclusive rights free agent, so he can be back if they want him to be. So is that enough for. You don't have to address that and you can kind of bide your time until Tripo gets back? Like, that's really the only unfortunate consideration that they now have on offense because of what that injury is. And when that injury happened, I'm okay.
- [73:55]
Derek Classen
With them just trying to get by. Like, if they really like the commitment with Chapillo and really want him to be the guy and thought that he could really develop into that role, I think it's totally fine to just, like, take one more year of, like, okay, we're going to sign some sort of stopgap. Even if it's just bringing Benedet back, we're going to get by for a couple of months if we have to, and give Tropillo like, eight weeks to prove, like, okay, do we feel like we can go into next offseason feeling like that's okay? Like, I think if they give him a little bit more time and they have to reassess this next offseason, I think that's a totally acceptable way to handle this.
- [74:26]
Robert Mays
To me, I'm overall. This is famous last words, but I am overall kind of with you on just the general vibe and feeling at the end of this season, like, it. So many fans of teams look at their team at the end and think, like, oh, we'll be back. You know, like, this is. This is the start of something and it just never happens that way. But I do feel like when you look at the complexion of the offense, how young everything is, and the quarterback specifically, I don't know if I've said this on the podcast. You and I have said it to each other a thousand different times. When I look at his overall development, Caleb Williams, and like, the arc of his development, the thing it most reminds me of is Josh Allen. And when you look at Josh Allen from year one to year two, there you just. 2019, Josh Allen. I went there, I went to Buffalo to write a story about him at that point. And he was so much better than he was as a rookie, but he still was not, not a finished product.
- [75:21]
Derek Classen
His footwork was still terrible that year.
- [75:23]
Robert Mays
He was kind of all over the place. And the accuracy specifically, and I remember talking to him about this, the accuracy in like the short to intermediate area of the field improved dramatically. It was so much better than it was when he was a rookie. But his deep ball accuracy that, that second season was awful. Like it was really, really bad. And then by 2020, they bring in Stefan Diggs, it all comes together. He becomes one of the best players in the league. League. You know, everybody celebrates. Ascribing that sort of three year timeline to a lot of quarterbacks is a fool's errand because most quarterbacks are not as talented as Josh Allen. Well, the Bears quarterback is as talented as Josh Allen. And so like that sort of layout and that sort of timeline. He is one of the very few guys where you can tell yourself that type of story. And I think he was better this year than Josh Allen was in year two.
- [76:15]
Derek Classen
Yes.
- [76:16]
Robert Mays
So I just think, I don't think you're telling yourself a story to believe that by year three he can become something really special, even if there are still some shortcomings to his game that are worth thinking about or worth acknowledging.
- [76:31]
Derek Classen
And he's tied to an offensive play caller who kicks ass. Like, that was not the case with some of these other teams that we've gotten really excited about. Like obviously everyone's going to go to Houston and Washington. Bobby Sloch was okay as a play caller that first year, but that offense ultimately was like a middle of the pack offense and it was still a team that was carried by the defense and some flashes from the quarterback. Last year with Washington, the Cliff Kingsbury offense did some stuff, but we've seen with Cliff before, it can get off the ground hot. And then they kind of run into a little bit of an issue like Cliff Kingsbury, even if he had some moments and has some stuff that he does well, not the same caliber of play caller as Ben Johnson. And then even more specifically with the Washington thing, that was a really old team and roster, like they were the oldest in the league and they got a little bit lucky that like, I know some of the guys on the Bears are old, especially along their interior, but like when you look at some of the core pieces, the quarterback again, the tight end, you have a young receiver room you have a young head coach. It just feels like this is a pretty firm foundation to me. Even if some of what got them here this year is going to come back down to earth.
- [77:32]
Robert Mays
I said it last night. Ben Johnson has been the architect and play caller for a team that has finished in the top five by weighted offensive DVOA each of the last four seasons presence. It's hard to do that. It's just. It's really hard to do that year over year. And he has shown an ability to do that. And so I am tempted to see it the same way where I think there are elements of what this team is that make them a little bit less susceptible to that sort of fall back to earth that some. That's happened with some of these other teams that have been surprises. It's going to happen on defense, right? Like the defense needs to be better for you to overcome the turnover aggression. But I think on offense specifically, you can really convince yourself that the arrow is pointing up in such a way that maybe again they win the same amount of games next year or they're a 10 and 7 team but they're a much better team than they were this year. Like I do think that is a possibility.
- [78:24]
Derek Classen
If they're 10 and 7 and you feel like Caleb Williams is like eighth in success rate instead of being like below average and you're still getting the explosive. That's what you want. That's what.
- [78:35]
Robert Mays
That's the thing. And that. And that's when you look at him, it's. I've used like very vague terminologies. We've talked about this before. Like, like the calibration is a little bit off and like it's things like that. To me it's. The offense has been explosive but not consistent and like that's how you have these moments where they look. It's like a rocket ship half the time and then the other half the time they can't even get the thing out of the driveway. Like it. That's be. It's because they're inconsistent and easy. Like the explosiveness and the EPA per play and all of those sorts of numbers, those are going to be where you want them to be. That's the nature of the offense. But there just isn't like a steady heartbeat to the offense. With the passing game specifically because of some of his accuracy issues. Because it's a young team, because receivers are struggling at the catch point. Like they're. Ben Johnson said like 12 weeks into the season openly at a press conference, the passing game is not good enough right now. Like that moment happened in the back half of the year for this team and I do think it can get there. But to pretend that there aren't things that need to improve on that side. There absolutely are. In order for them to just be more consistent down to down than they were this year.
- [79:42]
Derek Classen
Yeah. And I'm again, I think I'm kind of with you on like the Josh Allen timeline. Again, maybe he doesn't reach those peaks, but like I just with some of the progress we already saw with how talented he is, it's very easy to buy in why he would. And the thing is he doesn't. I think obviously the comparison is going to be like, oh well, look at what Jared Goffin did in Ben Johnson's offense and look at how efficient he. Some of the true best quarterbacks in the league. Again, I think if he's eighth or ninth in success rate next year, like he doesn't have to be Jared Goff where you're at like 54% a handful of time. If he can just be like in that range and keep the explosives that gets you to a spot that you want to be with a player like him.
- [80:16]
Robert Mays
Jared Goff is also in year five.
- [80:18]
Derek Classen
Right.
- [80:18]
Robert Mays
By the time that offense was good in Detroit, like it's. This is year two of a guy that they had to like completely tear down and build back up from scratch. And I think by the end of the season you could feel pretty good about where they. They were. Last thing before we get out of here. Got some breaking news.
- [80:34]
Derek Classen
Do we?
- [80:34]
Robert Mays
Jeff Halfley is the new head coach of the Miami Dolphins.
- [80:41]
Derek Classen
I think my initial reaction is meh. Like I don't think that he's a bad coach. I just did not to me feel like the caliber of play caller some of the other defensive guys that I got really excited about. But I totally under. It is funny that Miami is doing the thing thing of like we have this young hotshot super offensive play caller and then they want to go the other way with a guy who is even if at the college level, like been a head coach before, obviously called like a decent defense with the Packers. So I, I think this is fine. But I'm, I'm not like terribly jazzed about it either way.
- [81:15]
Robert Mays
I don't think he's the level of like defensive coach that maybe somebody like Jesse Minter has been. Even though I do think that Jeff Atley's done a good job over the last couple of years. Like, I think that he's there especially in 20. I think before the Parsons like injury this year I did, I did like a lot of things they were doing on defense. I thought he did a very good job in 2024. Even with some of their personnel deficiencies. What I think makes Jeff Halfley well suited to this sort of gig is that you're overseeing like what is going to be a rebuild, right? Like this is a team that's going to take a. They're going to have to take a lot of medicine this year. We'll see what happens with Tua. I assume they move on from him. This is a roster that is very much in transition, very much in flux. They're going to have to do a very intentional job over the last couple years. Going from the, my, the model that they had under Greer to a Packer centric model is about as much of a left turn as you can take when it comes to like team building philosophies in the NFL. The Dolphins made fewer draft picks or were in the bottom three than like any team in football over the last three to four years. Years. The packers are never going to be that sort of team. The packers are like draft and develop organization. That is who they want to be. And so that's, I think what you're going to see with the Dolphins. But that has not been the case. And so I think you're going to see like a pretty patient, methodical approach to adding talent to the roster over the next couple years. It's not going to be some overnight fix. And I do think that Jeff Halfley, personality wise and with a lot of the other kind of quieter elements of the job, I do think that he is potentially well suited for what is going to be kind of a rough start to this thing.
- [82:57]
Derek Classen
And what I'll say too is like, I think from our position it's easy to get very caught up in like just the play calling stuff. One that's not the entire position like you're talking about. Like there's a lot of other considerations and this to me feels actually a little bit like the Kellen Moore hire last year where Kellen Moore purely as a play caller is like a B minus to me. I don't think he's special, but I think he gets you over the line. And that to me is kind of how I felt about Halfley's time in Green Bay. But then if you are that on top of some of the other quieter stuff that we don't necessarily get to see on the field, I think if you can piece that stuff together Especially, like you said, going into a rebuild similar to what the Saints were going to have to do. I do think that he could, he could be nice. This, to me was just like, I think when I thought of all the, like, super defensive hires that could go in this cycle, he was not one of the first ones that I thought was going to go.
- [83:43]
Robert Mays
And obviously there's a natural connection with Jada Sullivan, who's their head coach. Their general manager now was just in Green Bay. Right. And so those two guys know each other. You have alignment with those two sides of the building. I heard that he was impressive during their head coach interviews. Like the new gm, like, this is somebody that inspires confidence for whoever was going to get that job. And so I think in a lot of ways this was a pretty natural fit. Even if it might not be the most exciting name, like from an X's and O's perspective of the guys available in this cycle. I'm sure we'll have plenty more time to dig into that. We're going to have another kind of coaching roundup show in the middle of this week. We'll talk about Stefanski, Jeff Ulbrich staying there. Drew Petzing is now the Lions offensive coordinator. Like, this stuff is just going to keep rolling in over the next couple days, and so we're going to spend an hour on Wednesday into Thursday just scooping up all of the coaching stuff that has come out really, since the last time we hit it. So that is coming later in the week. Encourage you guys to check that out. Out. For now, that is all we've got. Appreciate you guys listening. We'll talk to you very soon.
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Derek Classen
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