← The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL
The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL
Divisional Round Preview: The best weekend of the NFL season
01:34:08
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- [00:00]
A
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C
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D
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- [02:15]
A
Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays. Divisional weekend is here. I started off the show saying this. I firmly believe it. This is my favorite football weekend of the year. I think this is the best time of year in the NFL. And if Wild Card weekend is any indication, I think that we're on track for one heck of a set of games. We dove deep on all four of the divisional round weekend games. Just went in chronological order, all of them on this show. Let's get to it. Me, Dave Hellman, Derek Klassen, Divisional weekend, Here we go. I say it every year when we get here and I definitely feel it. Last night I'm sitting in this office, I'm watching Bears tape getting ready for this and it just kept hitting me over and over and over again. This is the best football weekend of the year. This is the best football weekend of the year and we have four fantastic games that we're going to be digging into today for divisional weekend, which is my favorite two day stretch of the NFL calendar.
- [03:18]
B
And such a new looking divisional weekend too. Like with the exception of Josh Allen being here. And I guess you could throw in Matthew Stafford as well. Just so many fresh faces, so many new guys to look at. Ironically, I can hear Houston fans reminding me that the Texans have been here the last couple years as well. But this, the whole vibe of this weekend feels new and different to me at least than it has over the last four or five years.
- [03:43]
A
And even though the Texans are mild under dogs this weekend, I still think they come into divisional weekend with different aspirations for the end of their season. Like, even if you had faith in what the Texans defense was over the last couple of years, this is the first time I feel like the Texans defense is good enough, Derek, for them to win the Super Bowl. Because of the Texans defense.
- [04:02]
C
They are like the epitome of what we've talked about this being like a weird season where there are different paths to winning. Where I think even as, as recently as like halfway through this season, we were like, no, you got to bet on the quarterbacks. Like we, even when you did our like whittling down the, the table at the end, we were like, no, we're still picking the quarterbacks. Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, their teams are going to be fine. We're at a point now where it's like, is the Texans defense the best single unit left? Like to me it's probably them or the Seahawks defense, right?
- [04:29]
A
Yeah, I think that's, I think that's right. I think those are the two best single units left. I mean the Patriots, the Rams offense was the best offense in the league, but I think they've shown more vulnerabilities in the back half of the year than either the Texans or the Seahawks defense has. So I think that's right. And we talked about it on that cutting down the table show this idea that if you look back at the Final Four for the last 10 years, I think there was one team in the Final Four that did not finish top 10 in EPA per play on offense and it was the 2015 Broncos. If the Texans win this game, they will be one of those teams like they will be a historical outlier in the Final Four if they win this game. And I like Derek said, I think that speaks to what kind of season we've been dealing with here.
- [05:06]
B
Giving new hope to all Future teams that start 03 can point to the 2025 Texans as a reason to lose face.
- [05:14]
C
Yeah, just have the best defense in.
- [05:15]
B
Like piece of cake.
- [05:19]
A
All of these games are presented by BetMGM. We're just going in chronological order with all four of these kicking things off with Bills at Broncos Broncos are one point favorites at home. This game is like, it's annoying you. You have anxiety over this game.
- [05:35]
B
I so we were just talking about this before we did, before we started recording. Like the way you prep for these shows, you try to allot a certain amount of hours per game to rewatch some games, watch some film, look at some stats and just really take a deep dive. And yesterday I looked up at the clock on my laptop and I had spent like four or five hours in a Broncos Bronco Broncos Bills wormhole and I was like holy shit, I've got to move on to something else. Like I have been trying to get to the bottom of this game for so long that I'm like behind schedule and it gives me anxiety. This is a it's a deeply annoying game for me. It's the best quarterback left in the field against the 1 seed. A a a team that has won 14 games has one of the best defenses in the NFL. The Broncos are 7th in total DVOA for this season, but a weird team. I think that's completely fair to say. The Denver Broncos are one of this the 2025 Denver Broncos are one of just four teams I could find in the super bowl era to lose three games or less and have a point differential of less than 100. So this is a very complete team, but a very flawed 14 win team in my opinion. And then a Bills team that has Josh Allen and it definitely has things going for it but is a beat to shit flawed roster in its own right. And I don't know trying to have a definitive opinion about who wins this game. I think is is a fool's errand.
- [07:05]
A
The Broncos won 14 games, they're playing a very flawed Bills team and it's a coin flip game at home. They're one point favorites. I think that says a lot with the six seed going to play the number one seed. So I think that speaks to the dynamics around this game.
- [07:18]
B
I.
- [07:18]
A
There's another game we're going to talk about. That was. That was the version of it, what. What you just said about just the complete lack of an ability to find a handle on it. There's one of those waiting for us a little bit later. That was my version of that. I think I have a better handle on this game for a few different reasons. One, we saw it happen in the playoffs last year, and so I think it's easier for me to understand what the Bill's path forward might be on offense, even if the Broncos defense is slightly different. Like, I can picture the way that the Bills would need to win this game in a way that's a little bit more difficult for me a little bit later on with one of the games that we're going to talk about. And I do think that the Broncos specific vulnerabilities on defense this year. We've seen it creep up enough times where I'm like, okay, that seems like something consistent that you can tap into. And so for me, Derek, this is a game where I have a clearer picture of it than maybe a couple of the other games we're going to dig into today.
- [08:09]
C
I kind of think so, too. Like, I also think there's a part of it where, like, even if you're a little bit uneasy about, like, okay, this is a very flawed Bills offense going against a Broncos defense that has mostly been pretty good, had a couple of stumbles at the back end of the year. You can also still like, very easily picture a game where Josh Allen just kind of goes nuclear, even with a lot of the issues that they've had. Yeah, I do think what makes this game a lot different than the last game that they played in the playoffs last year. Last year, the Broncos got ran all over by the Bills. Like, the Bills ran the ball incredibly well. A lot of that was them putting six offensive linemen on the field. And they have only really done that like a dozen times this entire season. That's mostly because they now have Jackson Hawes who can do a lot of that stuff. Because really, if you're going six offensive linemen, you're just saying, like, we don't have anyone else who can block, so we're just going to go put this guy out there. Now they have Hawes who can do that. And so it's still a lot of the same concepts. But I do actually think the Bills being a little lighter actually does work a little bit more in the Broncos favor personnel wise. The Broncos are also just way better than they were in that game. Like the linebackers in that game were Cody Barton and Justin Sternod. This year it's going to be Alex Singleton and Dre Greenlaw. I think even if GreenLaw is not 100%, I think that that is a pretty huge get for them. And then the down safety in that game was P.J. locke, who's like a fine rotational backup safety. Now it's Talanoa Hufanga, who is one in all pro and two like just wants to hit and kill people. I actually do. The Broncos are a lot more equipped to handle their run game in this game.
- [09:37]
B
Did you see the quote from Hunga this week where he was like. He was like, yeah, last year, like lingers in our mind and we've got a chip on our shoulder. I know I wasn't here for it, but like I want to be part.
- [09:48]
A
Of the get back.
- [09:49]
B
I was like, all right, let's go, man.
- [09:51]
A
It seems like a man who's looking for any sled he can possibly find at all times. I do, I do think it's funny that if you looked at the Greenlaw and ifanga moves, you could probably tie those to the way that the Broncos season ended and now they're playing against the team that ended their season last year. I do think there's something beautiful about that. Before we get into the individual side of the ball in this game. You mentioned that the back the Bills are just beat to shit and just hitting that specifically. It looks like at Oliver might be back in this game, which is obviously huge trail. Bernard is going to be back potentially. But you look at the guys who are not going to play in this game. Jordan Poyer likely not going to play in this game. Tyrell Shavers and Gabe Davis tore their ACLs last week. So the Bills are down to three healthy receivers. If Curtis Samuel plays, that gives them four. But he hasn't played for half the season at this point. And Maxwell Hairston is hurt. And so the Bills are pretty beat up heading into this game, which I think that is something to consider. When you think about how this thing.
- [10:51]
B
Might go, doesn't it kind of say it all that Curtis Samuel, I believe he was a full participant on Thursday as well as Demar Hamlin. And that news was celebrated by Bill's fans like, like this huge development. I was like, you know, you know, you're beat to shit if this is getting you excited. If Curtis Samuel being part of this makes you feel relieved, which it should, based on the injuries that they've had to deal with.
- [11:16]
A
It was a strange experience because we're going back and watching the game last this morning. I was like, oh, man, I forgot that demar Hamlin was the starter for the Bills at safety. And it's like, oh, man, Demar Hamlin might have to start at safety for the Bills again because I'm not sure they want Jordan Hancock in that spot after the way the things look last week when he had to play. All right, let's dig into when the Bills have the ball in this game. Derek, you. You touched on it a little bit, but I feel like the Bills had a very specific approach last year. They had 16 plays where they went jumbo according to Next Gen against the Broncos. Off about Broncos defense, they ran the ball efficiently. This version of the Bills against this version of the Broncos, what is the first thing you're looking for on that side of the ball?
- [11:55]
C
I mean, the run game wise, they probably will try to do a lot of the same stuff, right? Like. Like, in terms of the run concepts, they were getting to a lot of the weak zone. A lot of the duo, like, they. They can run that exactly out of their 12 and 13 personnel stuff, the same way they did out of their six offensive lineman stuff. So whether or not the edges can hold up and honestly, the linebackers coming up and hitting and really forcing those plays to cut early, I think that was actually what Jacksonville did really, really well. And so I think I'm going to be looking at that. And then the other part of it to me, in the passing game, we've talked a lot this year about how Denver's defense, there's more to it than you think. Like, I think we imagine them of just like, oh, they're sending five and playing man coverage all the time. And they. That's still like kind of what they major in, but it's a lot more zone. I think they bring more like simulated and weird stuff than you think that they do. But I think this is a game where it's like, go back to your roots. Let's just rush five and six. Let's ask them to play, man. Because I know the Bills passing game can beat you in other ways. Like with Kincaid, maybe they hit, you know, some of their guys out of the backfield. But if on the 13, 14 times they have to throw to wide receivers. We're just manning them up and beating them. I think that that's how you as the Broncos kind of choke this game out.
- [13:04]
B
That's exactly what I said is it's and I think it's good on your part, Derek, and you've pointed this out a few times this year to say the Broncos do more than what is ascribed to them. Like they don't just play man and do cover one and all and all that type of like leverage stuff. But this is a game where you probably can. This is a game where it would make sense if you want to crowd the box and just single them up. I mean, the Bills lost three receivers to season ending injuries over the last two weeks and this receiver core has been a source of consternation for them all season long. I mean, I would like to think you can man up what they have available, whether it's Curtis Samuel, whether it's Keon Coleman and just force them to do things the hard way and trust that you're going to win those matchups far more often than you don't. This feels like a week where the stereotypical Broncos game plan would work very nicely.
- [14:04]
A
The Broncos played about half man coverage last year when these two teams played and the Bills picked on them a little bit in the playoff game. The Bills receiving core is not as good as it was last year, which is crazy because we were hemming and hawing about how bad it was by the end of last year. That's how depleted they are. And if you look at this year specifically, the Bills are just a tick above average in almost any metric you want to look at against teams that play a man coverage against them, they're top five in success rate. EPA drop back when teams play zone coverage against them like they just don't have the horses. If you can really challenge them in that way. And obviously the Broncos are equipped to challenge them. And so I'm 100% with Derek. Like I think this is one of those games where you play a lot of man if you're the Broncos and you dare those guys to beat you, the run game part of it specifically, Derek and I are on the same page. If you look at what the Bills did last year to the Broncos and how they ran the ball, it's the same stuff the Bills want to do now. And it's probably the same way. I would attack the Broncos on a couple different fronts. Like they just tried to cave in or cave out those edges. You're just Trying to move those guys in the same way we saw them do against Jacksonville last week. And even if it's Jackson Hawes instead of Al Alexander, those guys are still small, right? Like, those are still undersized edges if you can kind of get some push in that space. And then the other part of it is you watch the huge Josh Jacobs run that happened in the Broncos game or in the packers game. That's just straight downhill duo. And the. The Broncos, you can get them a little bit doing that exact kind of stuff. And that's what the Bills want to be. And so who the Bills want to be in the run game. I actually think even if the Broncos run defense is excellent, those are the specific areas I would try to run the ball against this team.
- [15:40]
C
And actually to that point about double teams, I actually think the specific guy you can pick on there to me is Zach Allen. I think Zach Allen is great in a lot of ways, but his body type is actually really poorly set up for him to handle double teams. He's kind of has a thinner, smaller, like, lower body relative to how big and tall he is. And it's. He's like a very top heavy guy. So if he gets off balance just a little bit, he gets moved pretty quickly. And so you actually see that in a lot of these games where, where they struggle to give up some of these interior runs. Like, yeah, you can just knock him. Knock him off. So if they can get a double team with, you know, Dion Dawkins and David Edwards and they're just getting under him, like, that's a good way to just dig out like 8, 10 yards pretty consistently.
- [16:19]
A
One thing we've kept coming back to consistently this season for the Broncos is they can give up some explosive passes to tight ends. That ha. That has happened in a lot of the games where offenses have had some moments. It happened in the Giants game multiple different times. The packers got a couple to Luke Musgrave. Brent Strange had an explosive in the Jacksonville game. And that's another area where that's the only shot the Bills have based on the players that they have right now. Like, this feels to me like the sort of game where Dalton Kincaid needs to explosive catches. I was going back and watching the last playoff game and in the first drive of that game, the bills come out 12 personnel little yy. Look where both of the tight ends are in line next to each other on the same side. It's under center play action Doc Dawson. Knox starts running a big crosser left to right and then bends it Back outside. It's a 25 yard completion. Like Derek pointed out different personnel for the Broncos right now, but that's the sort of stuff where I think you need a couple of those in this game if you're going to have a shot.
- [17:18]
B
A funny thing I looked up on true media, which is it's probably a good thing for Denver to be honest, but they have the worst success rate in the league on targets to tight ends. But I would imagine that's a lot of check downs and safety blanket throws. But a you can do it. And so to have really two guys in Knox and Kincaid who can be that for Josh. And then you just alluded to it, but the number is 17 explosives to tight ends this year. And it wasn't just Green Bay and Jacksonville did it a few weeks ago. Washington, Zach Ertz, remember that? Remember how jarring that was? So you can hit them. So if, if those two guys can be the most consistent piece of your offense and if Denver is willing to give it up, fine. But then also scheme them into two or three of those big type of plays. You mentioned the Brenton Strange. The Brenton Strange explosive I last week against the Bills, ironically where he was, I think he was like a lead blocker in the backfield and they like schemed him through the line.
- [18:19]
A
Exactly what happened against the Broncos. Yeah, yeah.
- [18:20]
B
And the Broncos as well. And then we talked about it before the show. The Chiefs hit or against the Chiefs, the Bills hit all three of their tight ends for an explosive in that game in various ways. It's that type of stuff I think you're going to want to come up with rather than trust Brandon Cooks to beat Riley Moss or Patrick Surtan on any kind of consistent basis.
- [18:41]
A
Top to bottom, the Bills offense is outmanned against the Broncos and how good the Broncos offense or defense has been this year. But I think there are specific things that the Bills can tap into that they want to tap into that give them a path in this game. And I think it's worth mentioning because too often when we do these sorts of previews, we don't say shit like this, Josh Allen is the best player in this game. Josh, the fact that Josh Allen is the best player, you just sort of take that French name.
- [19:04]
B
You just sort of take that for granted after a while. But you're so right.
- [19:07]
A
And we this has a great year for not overvaluing that. But then you look at what happened last week and it's just like, oh yeah, they have the best player. Like that does matter sometimes.
- [19:16]
C
In a game like this, 100% matters, like especially too against the defense. I know we just like talked about a couple of ways that you can pick on the Broncos defense, but ultimately this is a defense that like the style that they play. You kind of just have to like flamethrower and out talent them in some ways. I'm not sure the rest of the Bills offense can do that. I know that Josh Allen can have like a half dozen moments if he needs to.
- [19:38]
A
What is your confidence level, Derek, that the Bills are able to tap into those things that we're talking about? Or do you think that because of what they're rolling out there right now and where the Broncos defense is, this is just one of those games where they get snuffed out.
- [19:50]
C
I'm a little bit worried. Unless Josh Allen as an individual has like five or six truly incredible moments, I'm just not sure they're going to be able to get enough in the passing game. Like, I won't be surprised if we get two or three of those chunks to Dawson, Knox, Dalton, Kincaid, whatever it is. I just. Those still need to be supplemented by like a really good run game and finding a couple of downfields to Brandon Cooks or whoever it is. I just. This Broncos secondary, even if they've been a little bit gettable at times, still a lot better than Jacksonville secondary. And I think it's going to be harder for them to live that way the way that they did last week.
- [20:24]
B
Do you think it's a non starter that the Bills can impose their will? Like does last week against Jacksonville linger too heavily in the mind?
- [20:35]
A
I think impose their will is strong. That would be like if the Bills run game controlled this game. I would be surprised if they were more successful this week than they were last week against the Jags. That wouldn't surprise me. And that's not because the Broncos are a worse run defense than Jacksonville. I just thought that it was kind of shockingly bad performance by the Bills run game last week.
- [20:55]
C
I think they just need to like keep the heart rate steady. That's it. Yeah, they just.
- [20:59]
A
That's right.
- [20:59]
C
They just need to not get blown off the ball. They were for all but like four runs last week. Yeah, if they can just have like an average rushing day. Not even average for them because average for them is pretty damn good. But just like average in general, that might be enough to just like let Josh Allen have the moments that he.
- [21:15]
A
Needs better than most teams perform against the Broncos. Yes, like that, that's.
- [21:19]
B
That.
- [21:19]
A
That's the Bar that is worth clearing here.
- [21:21]
B
One other thing I want to mention because we talked about the receiver injuries. You would think that with all these injuries that the Bills might go back to the whole 21 and 22 thing. And remember like we talked about that midway through the season. Like Reggie Gilliam had that moment and it was something that we talked about a lot when we talked about the Bills. Don't get me wrong, the Bills have like they've always used a lot of 11 personnel this year, but over the last three games they've ticked all the way up to 74%. Eleven personnel, like they've just kind of gone away from that. I don't know if Denver's the team that you want to try to go back to that against, but. But it could be on the table considering the injuries you're dealing.
- [22:00]
A
I wonder if we just see more 12 because they don't have enough receivers to play that way and they, they haven't played much 12 personnel this year. I think it's like 11% of snaps when I was looking at it on true media this morning. But do they have to do something a little bit different just because of the cards that they're playing with right now? Let's talk about the other side of the ball, Derek. The number one thing you're looking for when the Broncos have the ball against the Bills in this game.
- [22:22]
C
So I think what's interesting is like everyone loved the game plan that Sean McDermott threw against the Jackson I think he had. They absolutely that defense threw a heater. What I think is different about that game against the Jaguars compared to this game is the Jaguars passing offense. Their drop back passing game is like we want as many people out in the outside of whenever they're doing their play action stuff like they want people out in the progression. They want four and five out. They want Trevor Lawrence to like go through the entire field. All that stuff. When you are changing coverages and like doing weird stuff on the back end, you can catch the quarterback every now and then doing that. That's just like not how the Broncos passing game really operates. To me it's a lot more of like we're taking our one on one shots. The numbers like pre snap like kind of just like alerting that it's a lot of RPOs, it's a lot of screens, it's a lot of underneath stuff. Like it's just a much different consideration that I just don't really think a lot of that disguise stuff is as valuable in a game like this as.
- [23:17]
A
It was last week, I think that's totally fair. And when I went back and I was looking at the way the Broncos played this year and just what we've seen from the Bill secondary specifically, the thing I kept coming back to was the outside corners for the Bills need to be really, really good in this game, and I believe that they can be. Christian Bedford's a really good player, and we've seen what Trey White has done recently. He's had a really nice season. And so I do feel like if we, if we had said in week four that Trey White would be a divisional round starter for the Bills against the Broncos, I think you'd be a little bit worried about what Cortland Sutton could do to him in this game. And. But we're really not in that place considering how well he's played this season. But I think both of those guys need to play really well. And I expect Benford to be on Cortland Sutton a good majority of this game because I think he's played across the number one receiver on like 47% of snaps per next gen this season. So he has traveled like a decent amount. I expect him to do that again. They need to be really good in this game because I agree with Derek and the numbers bear it out. The Broncos this season have 105 passes between the numbers that have traveled five or more air yards. 105. That is bottom seven in the league. They are top seven in the league in their numbers of, in the number of throws, five or more air yards outside the numbers. And anecdotally we understand that about the Broncos, but the numbers will tell you the same thing. Like they want to attack outside and they want to get those one on ones. And how the Bill's corners hold up in those one on one situations I think goes a long way in figuring.
- [24:47]
B
This out and how the Bills handle their potential injuries at safety as well. I'm ripping this off purely from our guy Aaron Shots who does such great work, but I thought it was such an interesting stat. The Bills have the second best defensive DVOA in the league when they run too high, which is great, and it's a great way to try to keep that stuff from happening. But Jordan Poyer is dealing with a hamstring injury. Is that Demar Hamlin? Is it Jordan Hancock, who. I thought I had a couple nice moments in that game moving.
- [25:17]
A
They picked on him.
- [25:18]
B
Okay, thank you. He had a couple nice moments moving toward the line of scrimmage. Everything else was a bit Dicier. So depending on what that looks like, you might be able to take advantage of that more than the numbers would suggest for the year.
- [25:31]
A
I also think with the safety injuries, it actually plays into Derek's point that maybe you're less inclined to try to disguise as much when you don't have somebody like Poyer out there who is saying he's fluent in this system, understates it, right? Like he's. He helped create it and make what.
- [25:46]
B
It is the deep magic to him. He was there when it was made.
- [25:51]
A
The. The area, the other area of this side of the ball that obviously we have to talk about how well can the Broncos run the ball in this game? Because we saw it last week. Like, even if the Bills can funky shit up on the back end and can make things really hard on you and their past defense is built for these sorts of playoff moments, the run defense is eminently gettable. The Jags, when they run the ran the ball on the perimeter last week. They did what they wanted to. And to me, this is. It's an area. Where could we get to a stalemate for the Bills defense? And how important would that be? RJ Harvey this season, per Next gen, second lowest explosive run rate in the league among running backs with at least 100 carries. And so if you can limit some of those explosive runs, if you're the Bills, I think that's a big deal.
- [26:35]
B
I know I said that I was struggling to get a handle on this, but that mainly because I don't know how that's going to go. Like, if you could tell me how the Broncos run the ball, I'll tell you who wins this game. I think it's the single most important component of this match.
- [26:47]
A
I think that's fair. I don't think that's oversimplifying.
- [26:50]
B
There is enough, like, there's enough cause to believe either side of it. Like, if you tell me that the Bills gunk this up and keep the Broncos from really doing what they want to, I can believe that. If you tell me that the Broncos have a nice day and it lets Bo Nicks hit his layups and run the offense the way that he wants to, that's completely believable, too. I think it's. It's easily the biggest piece of this whole thing.
- [27:11]
A
The over under is 45 and a half, like 24 to 21. Like, that kind of feels right. Like, I feel like that's like the range that we're going to be playing in. And the other side that I think is the other specific element of the Bills defense against the Broncos offense that I think is worth considering. Derek mentioned this. The Broncos are a team that throws the ball short of the sticks at a top five rate. They rely on a lot of yak. That's, that's what they want to do. They want to throw screens, they want to check the ball down, they want to get the ball to guys in space. And there's this weird disconnect with the Bills where they allow explosive runs at one of the highest rates in the league. They were better in the second half of the year, but they were still like a bottom 10 team. The Bills allowed fewer yards after catch this season per next gen than any defense since 2017. And so they've been really good at limiting those run after catch opportunities that the Broncos want to have. And so where that comes out I think will go a long way in determining this thing.
- [28:04]
B
Another thing that ties into that and I wish I had looked into this before the Jags game because it might have aff my opinion of that. The Bills have batted a pass in 16 of their 18 games. They have 20 total batted passes at the line of scrimmage.
- [28:18]
A
They on Walker's tall them and the.
- [28:19]
C
Steelers, man, always getting hands on passes.
- [28:22]
B
But like, I mean, you're right but like so many guys do it. Remember like Benford had that play against the Bengals. AJ Epanessa has gotten his hands on some footballs this year. Rousseau's done it plenty. And with the amount of stuff like that that the Broncos like to do, I won't be surprised if the, or, or let's say if the Bills managed to get their hands on a couple, it could, it could swing things.
- [28:43]
C
And the last thing I'll say to like put a bow on the yak stuff and the run game stuff, I think the Broncos need both of those because they want this to be as few possessions as possible. Like, I know their defense is great, but you want to give Josh Allen as few bites at the apple as possible and only have to make six or seven stops instead of 10. And so if they can like go on some of these longer drives, 9, 10 play, 11 drives, even if on some of them you're only getting, getting three, I, I think they kind of have to win that way.
- [29:10]
A
The only other thing on that side of the ball I think is worth mentioning. Derek, I think your point about not really needing to be as funky with the coverages does make sense in this game. I still think simulated pressures and not necessarily blitzing because the Broncos haven't been bad when blitz this year. But you go back and you watch the game last year and you just think about who Bo Nix is as a quarterback. If you're going to flash something in front of him, right? If you're going to bring a second level defender and you're still going to get seven back in coverage and he sees that little bit of color, you can push him out of the pocket quicker than he wants to leave. And so I think them tapping into some of that and again that's not against type with who the Bills are, they're more than comfortable dropping those edges off and bringing some linebackers in order to press the pocket that way. And so even if maybe the disguise isn't as important, I think some creativity with the pass rush plan is an important part of this for the Bills.
- [30:01]
C
I think that's a great point because like the disguising stuff on the back end that's you're you're trying to bait a quarterback into making a mistake 15 yards down the field over the middle, which you just pointed out, Broncos aren't really doing that anyway. When you're bringing some of the simulated and stuff, it's when they're trying to be quick, replacing the blitz, trying to throw some of these RPOs, trying to throw some of these screens that you can get like some sort of free runner or just make him make a mistake. I think that's a great point.
- [30:24]
A
All right, before we move on, let's take our first quick break.
- [30:28]
B
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- [32:06]
E
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- [33:37]
A
Let's get to our next one here. The 49ers at the Seahawks. The Seahawks are seven point favorites in this game. It is the only line that is more than three and a half per bet. MGM as we record this it kind of feels right to me. Like when I went back and I started digging into this I was like yeah, it does feel like the Seahawks have kind of a significant upper hand as we get into it.
- [34:00]
B
Well yeah, I mean you can't let the Eagles game completely color your opinion of the 49ers. Like, this is a team from a personnel perspective that. That just does not have a full deck of cards. So I will just say I do. I will continue to ride for the 49ers in the sense that this is a division rivalry. It is the second time in three weeks that they will be playing each other. I think very highly of Kyle Shanahan and Robert Sala. I think. I think this will be. I don't. I would be surprised if this is a walk for the Seahawks or if it is, it would be the type of game where, like, it doesn't start to get out of control until the fourth quarter. But I think even if I understand why the Seahawks are favored by a full touchdown, I don't think San Francisco will make it that easy on them.
- [34:46]
C
I actually sort of took the other end of that, which I will talk about the Seahawks offense and what they might do, but in my mind, when I look at this game, Mike McDonald getting an extra week of prep for a team that he's played twice and just played with, how deep and talented this defense is. I like, I love Kyle Shanahan. The Niners have a handful of good players. This just seems really difficult for me to build the case for how this offense is going to be a handful.
- [35:12]
B
Of good players is so patronizing, but I get the Niners.
- [35:16]
A
But that handful is smaller than it.
- [35:18]
B
Used to be, for sure.
- [35:20]
C
I mean, I don't know if Trent.
- [35:22]
B
Williams and Ricky Pierce all play. It's a bigger handful than you had a couple weeks ago. Just ignore the part where George Skittle's out for the year. Just don't mention that.
- [35:30]
A
Yeah, I think. I don't think it's going to be a walk. I don't. I think the last game wasn't. I mean, even if the Seahawks defense was dominant for most of that game, if the Niners score a touchdown on that drive where Purdy throws the interception on that throw to McCaffrey in the flat, it does become a game deep into the second half. And so I think my hardest time with this. And we can start with this side of the ball, Derek. I just have a hard time figuring out what the path is for this Niners team without George Kittle to score more than 20 points against the Seahawks. Like, I feel like 17 would be a win based on where the Niners are right now, based on what the Seahawks defense is, and also just how equipped I think the Seahawks have shown they are. To take away what the Niners want to do.
- [36:16]
C
That's exactly where I'm at. And like, granted, 17, I guess, would have won them the last game, but again, I. You're.
- [36:21]
A
That's the point, right? It might, it might in this game. But I think 17 is like where I sit with it.
- [36:25]
C
I 100% agree because I think it comes down to like a lot of different things. One I just think think I've talked about before when we talked about the Rams and the Seahawks. Matthew Stafford is, I think, uniquely equipped to beat the Seahawks defense, especially over the middle. They are the best defense at squeezing windows over the middle, making those 10 to 20 yard throws in between the numbers really, really difficult. That's what the Niners want to do. And I think Purdy typically is good at those. But against the Seahawks, because of how tight a lot of the windows are and how quickly they're squeezing those, you need a lot more velocity than I think Brock Purdy typically brings. And so I think some of those are going to be tough for him. We've talked about before, too. I think a lot of Brock Purdy's worst moments are as a passer are when you squeeze the space in front of him. We saw on the interception that he threw against the Eagles where they crushed the pocket in front of him. He doesn't want to throw that drifter out that's right there. He turns back to his left and then there's more pressure in his face and he kind of just freaks out and throws an interception Anyway, so the Seahawks win with guys like DeMarcus Lawrence, Leonard, Williams, like all their guys are pocket crushers. They are built to do that. And then the last element of it to me, the Niners could not and really did not try not to run the ball at all in the last matchup. I think they only had 12 rushing plays and hardly any of them worked. Now you don't have George Kittle, who and I know you'll have Trent Williams back. So there's a little bit of a push and pull there. But that to me probably comes out in the wash. And I'm assuming the Seahawks defense is going to have a lot of answers.
- [37:48]
B
Once again, what's my rebuttal? Fair. And I do think this would be very tough for the 49ers, but I go back to the availability of Trent Williams and the availability of Ricky Pearsall. I'm basing any optimism for San Francisco on the availability of those two players. I have a hard time imagining it going any other way without both of them playing.
- [38:11]
A
If Pearsall doesn't play, it's. It's really hard for me to imagine a world where they're explosive enough in the passing game where they can find even four or five of them over the course of the day to make this possible.
- [38:21]
B
If you go back and watch the Week 18 game, it just felt like the Seahawks were a wood vice and they were just spinning it on the 49ers, like every single snap, like there was no room. There was no room in the pocket, there was no room on the field. They didn't honor like any, any ability of the Niners to create space, like they didn't honor any of it. And so I think you need both of those guys. Ironically, I want to shout out Austin Pleasance, who played left tackle in that game. I thought he played pretty well, all things considered. But having Trent Williams back, I think at least gives you a chance to help Colton McKivitz. Because you talk about DeMarcus Lawrence, Derek, he, he dominated that game. Especially like in the early going before the Seahawks were able to build up a two possession lead. He just, he blew so many plays up. So if you get Trent Williams back and Colton McKivitz can benefit from chips and slides and extra protections and things, that maybe it keeps the pocket from getting crushed quite as badly as it did in that game. And then you just, you need a guy like Pearsall who, you know, against the Seahawks, I think it would be tough regardless, but at least gives you somebody who can exploit, exploit space and open things up. Because I think, let's be honest, even if Piersol plays, there's gonna. This game is going to be so dependent on Christian McCaffrey and hopefully Kyle use check as well, like taking short passes and doing things with them. But if you go back and watch that game, when those targets got out, there were four Seahawks on top of those guys immediately because they were in position to get there because they weren't honoring anything downfield.
- [40:03]
A
So they squeezed the life out of it.
- [40:05]
B
It was unbelievable watching it back, like the boa constrictor of it all. And so, yeah, I can't imagine the Seahawks scoring more than 17 points, even maybe 20, even if things go really well for him and all these guys are healthy. But I do think that could give you a shot to get there. If you have these guys who could buy Purdy more time and give this offense more of a vertical element than it had in the last game.
- [40:31]
A
You just felt the pocket condensing and you felt the space condensing and you just watch how limited the Niners passing game felt through the first three quarters of that game. Through three quarters per next gen, Purdy was averaging 3.1 air yards per attempt. He has one other game and hit the past three years with that was under five air yards per attempt. Like it just was a completely neutered version of the Niners passing game. And the one thing and even in the so The Seahawks played 71% split safety coverages on early downs. It was a lot of quarters and it was a lot of COVID six. And so and they're just packing the paint. The Niners do not want to throw the ball outside of the numbers. That that's not where they want to attack people. If you look at it in the second half of the season, the Niners had 37 attempts outside the numbers beyond 10 air yards. That was bottom seven in the NFL in the second half of that game. That that is the space that the Seahawks are giving you because that's where they know you don't want to attack them. And in the second half of that game, those are where some of those chunks started coming for the Niners. In the fourth quarter. They had that big sale route to Kittle. They hit another one that's like a little circus route to Juwan Jennings where he releases inside, bends it back outside into the whole shot. And then they had a deep comeback to DeMarcus Robinson against Man coverage. On the opening drive of the second half, it was like a third and four. Those were the throws available to you, and those are the throws you're going to have to make in this game, in my opinion, if you're going to have a shot. And that's why the Piersol thing just feels really, really important. Because if he wasn't playing, I just don't know where some of those chunks come from. In a world where Kittle isn't in.
- [42:07]
C
The game, I hunt up like you could, you could get one or two of those without Pierce. All right, but you probably need five or six and if he's not in the game, you're not going to get five or six.
- [42:16]
B
The other thing I would note too, I noticed that on a few of those plays, I just think. And when I say trick it up, I'm not talking about trick plays like what they did against the Eagles with Juwan Jennings. I mean, that's cool if you've got that in the bag. This is a good week for it. But I just think McCaffrey and us check need to get their steps in, in this game. Like they need to be, they gotta be motioning, they gotta be moving all over the place. And I don't, I don't know if it's gonna work. Like this is a really well coached defense, but anything you can do to create conflict and maybe confusion if Nick Emin worries, not sure if he needs to bump to the flat or worry about the guy in the, you know, in the corner or whatever, Anything you can do to try to gain that edge, you should be doing. I don't know if it'll work, but I would be moving those two guys frequently and, and as on as many snaps as possible.
- [43:08]
A
It reminds me in the second half against the Eagles last week when you were manufacturing explosives with that sort of mindset, I think that is where Kyle Shanahan has to be as he approaches this game. The one other thing I want to mention on that side of the ball, the Niners or the Seahawks for the second straight game against the Niners, they did it in week one. And part of me thought, okay, is that an echo of how teams are playing as the Niners last year and are they going to go away from it? They played more man than they typically do. They played like 20% man on first down against the Niners in week 18. And so I'm them using that as a little bit of a change up and them kind of saying like, we're not afraid of you in these moments. We think we can do this. That's interesting. And then the other element of Seattle's defense that they really been leaning into in the second half of the season, just because the personnel has changed, they played 78% dime on third down in week 18. That is the second highest in any game this season. They've done it at least 40% of third downs since week 11 because the guys in the secondary are back healthy. And so this was already probably the best defense in the NFL right there with the Texans for the first half of the season, the first 12 weeks, and now their personnel is better than it was over those first 12 weeks and they have more different things they can tap into.
- [44:20]
C
Well, and because you know, too specifically for this game, if, if you're telling me the Seahawks defense was going to play more man than they usually do and be a little bit lighter than maybe they have at other parts in the season, the guy on the Niners offense I would be most terrified is, is George Kittle, but he's not going to be in this game. And so Seattle can probably Continue to do all that stuff the way that they have over the back half of the year.
- [44:41]
A
So if we think it's going to be a tough road for the Niners to put up a lot of points in this game, I don't necessarily mean, I don't necessarily think that means the Niners have no shot in this game. I think there still is a path for them to win this game. They just need an ugly day from the Seahawks offense and the question becomes how realistic is that?
- [45:01]
B
And they just held him to 13 points two weeks ago. You take that every single time. If you're The San Francisco 49ers, I don't know if you can duplicate it. But, but you, you just did it. So that's one one place to start.
- [45:14]
A
Do you think that performance lasts in Week 18? Derek, where the Seahawks did move the ball pretty efficiently and they shot themselves in the foot multiple times. Do you feel like it's more likely that we see another sub 20 point performance from the Seahawks or do you think the down to down efficiency speaks to them being better in this game than they were a few weeks ago?
- [45:36]
C
I think that they will probably be better than they were in the, in the game a couple of weeks ago if, if only for like of the worst performances that they had all season as an offense. I just don't see them doing that twice, especially against. I know that the Niners played well in that game and that they've had a couple of decent performances here with that game. And then obviously I think they actually played pretty well against the Eagles. This is still a team that is massively, massively outgunned talent wise. And I actually think the secondary does have some guys and so if they're going to really try to like, you know, make some tough one on ones in the passing game, I think that that could, that could happen. But I just think the front, even with Seattle's run game and offensive line not being great, I still think that they are outmanned and it's more likely to me that they'll be able to be at least get to like 21, 24 in this game, which what we just talked about with the other side of the ball. That should be enough for you.
- [46:27]
B
This feels like a week for Robert Sala to go out on his shield. You know, actually San Francisco's pressure rate in that game was 36.7% which is their best day rushing the quarterback since Nick Bosa got hurt.
- [46:41]
A
No Charles Cross in that game, no.
- [46:42]
B
Charles Cross in that game, which he was downgraded to limited this week and Josh Jones is also dealing with an injury. We'll see how that goes for a playoff game. I'm sure Cross will try everything to be ready for this, but you're right, that's worth mentioning. Even still, I think you just try to play it aggressively as possible. Like you know that you're outgunned, you know that that you probably need some variants in this game. I would, I would do anything to try to manufacture pressure which they only blitzed Sam seven times in that game. They forced three incompletions, they got a goal line sack and they forced the turnover on downs on fourth and goal when they did it. I'd probably dial that up a little bit. Sam Darnold's turned the ball over five times in the last five games and that doesn't include two other fumbles that the Seahawks managed to fall on. So so dialing up the pressure and hoping to cause some chaos feels like a great way to start.
- [47:37]
A
That feels like the right path for me. The Niners haven't played much man this year, but they've been above average epa drop back sex rate, anything you want to look at when they have played man coverage, especially on third down. The Seahawks have been decidedly below average in those same metrics against blitzes on third down in the back half of the season. And so you those exact moments from the last game where you can kind of create a little bit of variance, I would be challenging them. And I think the real downside to that is you have JSN against these corners specifically like him on the left side against Renardo Green. And it's not to me the fear Derek of like getting beat over the top. It's him just being able to work underneath. If Green is going to be playing off of him in man coverage and them just picking at that over and over and over again. If you're going to be playing man man throughout this game, that's probably the thing I'm most worried about. But that to me feels like the risk reward as you like. Look at that. Feels worth it to me if you're the Niners.
- [48:32]
C
I couldn't agree more. Like they JS he's probably going to get his no matter what. The Seahawks will probably hit two or three or four explosive passes almost no matter what. You need to call plays in a way where you can get yours as well. Where you can get two or three sacks on Sam Darnold, you can force a tight window throw where he's a little bit crowded maybe it gets tipped up for an interception. You just need to do some of that stuff. Because I know the Seahawks offense has been explosive for a lot of the year. It's obviously cooled down a little bit, but even when they were good, they were turning the ball over like Sam Darnold was giving it up. They were still throwing interceptions. And I do think that, you know, need to turn up the heat a little bit in a way that tries to get some of that stuff out of them.
- [49:11]
A
The idea of getting them into some third and sevens, third and eighths, and see if you can force the issue a little bit. The Niner, the Seahawks ran the ball well, if you look at like the total output in that game, but they were explosive, but they weren't that efficient down to down. They finished with a 38% rushing success rate, but they had six runs of 10 plus yards. And if you look at it, this is mostly true. When they won on the edge, they won in the run game. That that's what happened. When they could get the ball onto perimeter, that's where a lot of those plays came from. And I wonder because of that, how much does Bryce Huff play on early downs? Like, if the Niners can hold up on the perimeter, I do think that if they can limit that to maybe you give up one or two explosive runs and you still keep that down to down success rate down under 40ish percent, that to me feels like one of the building blocks for how you get there.
- [50:05]
C
And how aggressive do they use the DBs in the run game? Because that was actually what they did really well last time is they were firing guys off the edge. They were firing them through like the B gap at certain points, and they were kind of doing their best to supplement their edge players and help them out a little bit. And so when those guys made plays, when maybe Upton Stout was able to squeeze through and get into the backfield or Jair Brown, whoever it was, could get into the backfield, they could make stops. If that guy either missed a tackle or a tight end got enough of them and they were able to spring it to the perimeter, that's when you got your big explosive plays. So I'm curious to see how aggressive they keep that, which.
- [50:38]
B
The Niners missed 40% of their tackle attempts in that game, easily their worst performance of the season. Which watching them last week against the Eagles, that's crazy. And it's. I mean, it was a completely different set of linebackers. Obviously they got. They dealt with injuries in this game. So how they handle that and how well they do that, as opposed to what they did last time, could. Could say a lot.
- [50:59]
A
I think it's a tough path for the Niners to carve.
- [51:03]
B
This is like threading a needle for sure.
- [51:05]
A
If. If they do it, I think it's because it's an ugly game. I think that's the game the Niners have to win.
- [51:11]
B
I.
- [51:12]
A
The. The idea of the Niners winning this game, like 31 to 27, I just. That. That's really, really hard for me to picture.
- [51:18]
C
I don't even know what that Seahawks defense giving up that many points would look like.
- [51:22]
B
Have they given up that many points all year?
- [51:24]
A
The Rams, that. That was like. That was just the Rams.
- [51:26]
C
That's the thing. It's such a. That's such a. Like, I can't imagine Niners team playing that way. Like, it just. That doesn't make compute to me.
- [51:34]
A
Even like a 20, 24, 21 niners win or 27, 24 niners win? That's just harder for me to imagine. I think the Niners can win this game if it's in the teens, but I feel like. And that puts a huge onus on their defense, but that's the version of the game that I feel like the Niners are most likely to win if it happens.
- [51:51]
B
Both versions of this game were that game 1713 and 133. I mean, week one is. There's no reason to talk about week one considering everything that's happened to the Niners since then. But both of these games have followed more defensive scripts.
- [52:07]
A
Last thing about the Seahawks Niners game, just because I think we should mention in some capacity, Fred Warner probably not going to play. He's on the practice field and has been there this week. And the fact that that's even happening, considering his foot was turned sideways, what, like two months ago, is crazy. But it doesn't seem like he's going to be ready for this game specifically.
- [52:26]
B
Yeah, that feels. They. They say maybe if. If they were to win this game, maybe he'd be available for the NFC Championship. But great for the vibes to have him back on the field. That was wild.
- [52:37]
A
All right, we're going to take our last break here and then come back and chat a little. Texans Patriots. It's that time of year again for Texas. We all know the stress of the old way of filing. You send your documents off and then absolute radio silence. You're stuck refreshing your inbox and sending awkward. Just checking in texts, wondering if they've even started. But with TurboTax Expert full service I know my TurboTax Expert takes taxes fully off my plate and updates me every step of the way so I don't have to worry. That way I can get back to the things that matter to me like going on vacation in the spring or enjoying the NFL off season. So stop chasing updates. It's time to switch to the modern tax filing Solution with Intuit TurboTax. The best part? You can get experts progress right on your phone while you go about your day. So go for a run or grab a coffee. You'll know your dedicated expert is handling it, looking for every last deduction to get you the best possible outcome and every dollar you deserve. File with confidence. Visit turbotax.com Only available with TurboTax Full Service Experts Real time updates only in iOS Mobile App Boost Mobile is now sending experts nationwide to deliver and set.
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B
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Wait, we're going on tour? We're delivering and setting up customers phones? It's not a tour.
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B
Not with that attitude.
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A
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F
Fast and confident decisions.
- [54:12]
B
Transform the everyday with Siemens.
- [54:20]
A
Let's get to the next one here. Texans at Patriots so Patriots are three and a half point favorites in this game. The game I was talking about earlier when I was bringing up the game I had zero feel for whatsoever. This is the one. I have no idea what this is going to look like.
- [54:38]
B
That's kind of, it's, it's fun. Cause they're similar games, right? Like, I mean the two of the best defenses in the league this year. Two of the best quarterbacks in the league this year. Like those are. Those are the selling points for both of these teams. Talking about Broncos, Bills and Patriots Texans maybe.
- [54:54]
A
And again, I don't want to put too much stock in what happened in last year's playoffs, but because I've already seen the Bills do like win a game against the Broncos, I've already seen what that path looks like and I do think there are more specific things to point to. It's easier for me to imagine the game that the Bills offense needs against the Broncos defense for them to win. It's harder to do that with the Patriots offense against the Texans. But of course I know the Patriots offense has been incredibly good this year. It's just harder for me to picture what it looks like specifically. In my mind I can see the six to eight plays the Bills need. And the Bills get to win that game against the Broncos with this one. Derek. I just don't know what those plays are against the Texans defense.
- [55:37]
C
I'm in the same boat, man. Like, I think the Patriots offense is good. They also. They have not played an offense or a defense of this caliber in the Chargers defense.
- [55:45]
A
We keep doing that though. We keep saying that every single week. I know, like this. But.
- [55:50]
C
But they played a good defense last week and they were not very good last week.
- [55:53]
A
That's right.
- [55:54]
C
And this is one a better defense but also a much different defense. This is a defense that it's. They're going to challenge you a little bit more. A lot of tight windows. The pass rush is obviously incredible. And so it really is like a hard game for me to get a handle on the thing. I do think too, if I had to like figure out what is the toughest game for me to pick, it's maybe this one, maybe the last one we'll talk about. But it's one of these two. The last thing I want to say.
- [56:15]
A
God bless you.
- [56:16]
C
I know this I think is a cool full circle moment in a way. You remember last year when Drake May did not start the season and then he finally came in against the Texans and everyone was like, bad idea. You can't start your rookie quarterback against the Texans. And he actually looked pretty good for a rookie. Obviously they don't end up winning that game.
- [56:32]
F
Game.
- [56:33]
C
And now he has to come back as the potential MVP and play against a better version of that Texans defense. I think story wise that's kind of fun, man.
- [56:42]
A
We did.
- [56:43]
B
We wrote his obituary before that game, didn't we?
- [56:46]
C
And then he played pretty slow.
- [56:49]
A
Watching what, how after watching what happened to Jacoby preset in that offense, I felt I was very scared for Drake May.
- [56:56]
B
I have zero regrets. I just. It just speaks to what a good player Drake May has become and was clearly capable of becoming. Even at the time time I was.
- [57:05]
A
Looking at this game and so you look at the Texans just coverage splits. Overall, they don't play a lot of COVID two. They play like about an. An average level of COVID six. They play 56% combined cover three, cover four. That's. That's what the Texans defense has been this year. The Patriots offense this season is number one in EPA per drop back against cover three and quarters. And so that's where I sit with this game. It's like what am I supposed to do with this? Like it's just so hard to Figure out who actually has the upper hand in that matchup. And I tend to think that it is the Texans based on how they're playing right now. But Derek, is. You're considering that Drake May, this offense against the Texans defense, like, what is the first thing that you're thinking about?
- [57:49]
C
I honestly think that you really do have to challenge them down the field because I think the thing with this Texans defense is they play in a way that should be volatile. Like, they do play a lot of like one on one matchup coverage and you can sometimes attack them down the field. The problem with attacking them down the field is usually the quarterback can't hold onto the ball long enough for that to happen. Drake May, I do think is willing to hold onto the ball and he's very willing to lay it, lay the ball out down the field, especially deep outside the numbers. And when he's done that, he's been about as accurate as you can possibly be on a lot of those throws. And I do think that when we've seen some of these really tough games from the Texans, it's been these games where this stuff can be volatile, but they get two, three, four shots allowed down the field. Some of them can be blown coverages like they're struggling to pass guys off in some of their deeper zone coverage against play action or sometimes like Kamari Lassiter is great, but he still is like ultimately a cornerback too that you can beat over the top a little bit. And so I would be curious to see if the Patriots, I really think you do have to challenge them down the field. And I think May's willing to do it and certainly capable of it. Will. I think I'm more curious to see if the receivers are up to the challenge there.
- [58:59]
B
This is where my brain drew me when I started looking at this. Obviously we know the, the Texans don't blitz that much. It's like 22% of the time. And maybe you don't want to against Drake May anyway because he leads the league like everything versus the blitz this year. 15 touchdowns, no picks, 1600 yards, top five in the league in EPA per drop back versus the blitz. So that took me to. If you just rush four, which the Texans love to do and are very good at, and you get pressure, how will that look?
- [59:31]
A
The best quarterback in like eight years.
- [59:33]
B
Thank you.
- [59:33]
A
Yeah.
- [59:35]
B
Best success rate and best EPA per drop back in the league, as well as the third highest yards per attempt when he's under pressure. So not just. Not just if you send four in the pats deal with it. But if he's under pressure, he's that good. The one thing, and I think we talked about this on the award show, he's taken 34 sacks in those situations this year, but only half of those were for more than three yards. And we've mentioned that before. Like he's really good at sacks. Not ruining Patriots drives because a lot of them just aren't for that much yardage because of his athleticism. And so and this is ironic because we're coming off of a game where the Chargers strip sacked him twice. But as long as you keep that from happening, then I, I, I think Drake May can overcome this is what I'm trying to say. And I don't mean that to minimize what the Texans are capable of. I, I've watched them plenty. But I, I don't know man. I think I trust Drake May's body of work.
- [60:30]
C
Dave. I'm trying actually really cool. He, I think that's such a great point about the sacks that like the particular types of sacks that he takes where it's a lot of like three yards and less. He doesn't bail from the back of the pocket like he's, if he feels pressure, he's stepping up, he's going to run through the A gap, he's going to do that, some of that stuff.
- [60:47]
B
And so that's how you have Drake Mays. Half of his sacks this year are him getting ankle tackled at the line of scrimmage by a who is in pursuit. Absolutely.
- [60:56]
A
And again you think about just risk reward him trying to move up and out of the pocket, the plays he can make as a passer navigating the pocket, what he does as a scrambler. Like you'll take a few of those sacks because the rewards on the other end of it, he's doing things under pressure and when having to move off his spot that almost no quarterback in the league is doing right now.
- [61:16]
C
100%. Like if he's, if you're worried about him taking a sack that gets you into like second and 12 on a first and 10. But then you know the next play he can just like slide up against pressure again and then hit a 20 yard hole shot. Who gives a shit if he's taking a couple of these sacks.
- [61:30]
B
The one thing that gives me pause see how you like this. Louisiana State University might swing this game.
- [61:39]
A
I'm shocked you came. You went here.
- [61:41]
B
Daniel Hunter versus Will Campbell is that's quite a matchup. And Will Campbell has had a fantastic rookie season. He, he has lived up to the billing. But this is the type of pass rusher and the type of pass rush that can expose the questions about him like the athleticism, the length. When people were trying to pick Will Campbell apart, it was people like Daniel hunter who have 34 and a quarter inch arms and have 18 pass rush moves in their bag. That's what people were imagining when they said Will Campbell top five pick. I don't know. And, and and Anderson both play on.
- [62:20]
A
Both sides but Anderson played So Anderson's played 75% of his snaps on the defense's left side coming into the game last.
- [62:27]
B
Hunter's mainly been right but he was left last week.
- [62:29]
A
They flipped it last week. So Anderson was at 75% last week. And so that was just kind of a. A interesting, you know tweak for that game specifically. But yeah that for the most part Anderson has played on the left side.
- [62:39]
B
Daniel Hunter, Will Campbell. Like all the nice stuff I just said about Drake. If, if Will Campbell isn't either on his A game or getting some help then that, that could send things sideways for sure.
- [62:51]
A
And then the K shan booty part of it.
- [62:53]
B
You're so right.
- [62:54]
A
We talk about taking those deep shots and like where they might come from and challenging those guys. That's the guy that potentially will be doing it.
- [63:00]
B
Go Tigers.
- [63:01]
A
Few different things again. If I'm trying to figure out what are those plays look like with the Texans, I think Derek is right. I think you have to try to challenge them down the field. They've been worse. The Texans have out of those single high looks that they have been playing quarters this year and the one play I'm thinking of. So I was trying to figure out which games to watch like go back and like which teams had success against the Texans defense and where we could find some ideas. The only team I believe since week two that had a success rate above 41% throwing the ball against them was the Raiders. EPA models are different in different places. But the next gen EPA model specifically the Texans have not allowed a positive EPA per drop back since week two.
- [63:44]
B
To be that good and to struggle with the 2025 Raiders is so silly.
- [63:49]
A
And so the Raiders. The one big chunk that the Raiders hit in that game is just Jack Besh on like a huge crosser against single high that Geno just lays out and that it takes a really nice throw. But what do we know about Drake May like Drake May can be accurate pushing the ball down the field. And so I think that that idea of we need to try to take a few shots in this game you get a PI against a team that can get a little bit grabby. I think that has to be part of of it. Few more things that I came to while watching some of this stuff back the Texans this year they have been about average against play action, designed rollouts. And the Steelers last week they hit that big crosser to DK with Rogers rolling back to the left. So that is an area where the Texas defense have been average. And average is a win. Like you if they're average, they're worse than they are in most other areas. One other thing that this isn't necessarily surprising, the Texans defense this year per next gen is bottom five in success rate on outside runs. And you think about how hard they flow and if you can. My first thought when I'm thinking about this is two distinct types of plays. The Patriots will do this. They'll be in 21 personnel or some sort of heavy look with in an eye formation and they'll do that kind of reverse pitch out to Henderson to like against the norm, like the flow of the play. Trying to get a couple chunks off of something like that. I expect at least one end around attempted in this game by the Patriots and I think if they tried like some sort of funky trick play that would not surprise me at all.
- [65:23]
C
I don't think it surprises me. I think the run game point is a really good one too. Cause if you're running at or near the edges like Will Anderson Jr. Is one of the best edge setting defenders in the league. Daniel Hunter is like less like, you know, put two hands in your chest and like defend the run. But he will just get under a tackle and blow up the plate. You kind of have to just run all the way to the perimeter outside of them and just pray that you can get away from them. Or like you said some of that pitch stuff that I.
- [65:48]
A
You need to have the ends crash inside and then get the ball back on the perimeter. The one like explosive run that the Steelers had last week was that Kenneth Gainwell Wineback run. Where I think it was Hunter, it might have been Anderson actually crashes inside and then they wind it back to the left side, all the way to the perimeter. Like those are the types of runs I'm thinking of. And then the one other thing that kept up crept up a couple times when I was watching some of these games and the cos hit one last week. The Texans this year have been if you look at their play action numbers, anywhere between the numbers, negative 0.15 EPA per drop back against play action outside the numbers, it's 0.12 EPA per drop back. Which is if you look at the league as a whole, it's still not bad. But those plays specifically have been much more valuable to the offense than a lot of other stuff that you can try against the Texans. And they hit kind of the one on like a sale route last week where they bleed out coverage to that side and then because the linebackers are filling up against the run, I mean this is normal football but like because the Texans kind of play with that downhill mentality. If you can get Al Shire taken one or two steps and then you're throwing it back into that hook area where he's supposed to be, that's one spot where if you can hold up, can you get one or two of those? And we've seen the Patriots like doing that. Like the Patriots want to attack that area. They do it all way the the time. So those are, those are like the three or four things that I had. But it's. It took me like two hours of digging to figure out like where like what four or five specific things would I try to do against the Texans.
- [67:18]
B
Drake. Drake May leads the league in yards, touchdowns and EPA per drop back on throws of 10 plus yards and outside the numbers. So that gives credence to, to your point, which I can't. I. We said this in the production meeting, didn't we? Like of the four game unit on unit matchups, this is, this is top billing for me.
- [67:40]
A
I think so. I mean the Patriots were number one in EPA drop back this season and the Texans were number one in EPA drop back on defense. Like I think this is probably the biggest strength on strength match and I.
- [67:49]
B
Don'T want to hear if, if, if, if the Patriots manage to win. I don't want to hear any more of this. Well, they haven't done it against so and so. Like they like this is, this is it. If you feed the game changes the.
- [68:02]
C
Discussion, it's all over.
- [68:03]
A
Yeah, I do think that it's hard for me to imagine a game where the Texans defense really gets picked on right now with the way that they're playing. The question then becomes if the Texans defense can slow down this offense, can they do enough on the other side of the ball to win this game? And I just don't know if they can right now because if you look at what they did last week, I think there are a couple different things that come to mind. The way they ran the ball against The Steelers last week, that feels like an outlier, right? Like they have not been able to run the ball downhill like that all season. Like their efficiency running the ball just straight downhill runs out of those jumbo sets last week. They've been actively bad in that area for most of the year. And so is that an indication that things are trending in the right way or is that a performance that we just kind of throw out? When you take it in context with everything else that's happened and then now, now you lose Nico Collins and so you lose your most explosive pass catcher and you for the most part have struggled to run the ball this year. And Derek, I think there are specific elements of who the Patriots have been defensively over the last couple months that do make it even harder on this specific version of the Texans.
- [69:15]
C
As far as that run game against the Steelers, like throw it out as maybe strong. But you got to prove it to me again, you've been bad for basically the entire season. I think I said when that game was happening, when they were just like having a couple of those drives, they where, where they were just marching it on the Steelers front. I was like, I don't know if I've seen the Texans do that since the Jags game with Davis Mills, which was in like week eight. And that was when they first pulled out the six offensive lineman stuff. And I think it caught them off guard. So they've got to prove that again. And I do think personnel wise, I struggled to see them doing that against the Patriots in this game for a couple of reasons. One, we've actually seen that Steelers run game have some pretty low lows even though they've been decent at certain points this year. But to me the trio of Milton Williams, Kairos, Tonga and Christian Barmore is a better interior than the Steelers have. Especially Tonga is really, really good right now. And so if he's going to be back in this game and he's going to be healthy, I think to me it's hard to see how they push them around. And then obviously in the passing game one, I think you struggle to match up now one on one. Even if Christian Gonzalez is out on the other end, like if you don't have Nico Collins, I think the rest of the Patriots secondary is fine, fine.
- [70:21]
B
He's not out by the way. Gonzalez practice, he practiced.
- [70:24]
A
It sounds like Gonzalez is going to play and Nico's not going to play.
- [70:27]
C
Then that is. That is like worst case scenario for this Texans passing game. Cause I just again, matchup wise, I don't see it like Jaden Higgins is a nice player. I think what we like what he can be, but if he's got to go toe to toe with some of those other corners and he's got to be the guy for them, it's. It's hard for me to imagine how this goes all that well for them.
- [70:44]
B
I feel like I sound like a Patriots cheerleader in this segment and I don't mean to, but like looking through it, I just came away with the conclusion. I think not, not on our show, but like just in general. People talk about the Patriots as if they are like a bad team that rolled over a bad schedule and Drake May is awesome, but it's not that good of a team. And I'm not saying that they're the best roster in the playoffs, but I think this is a better roster than it's gotten credit for for a lot of the year. Probably because they weren't regularly testing themselves against the best in the league. And now you look at this situation where Milton Williams is back, Kairos Tonga is coming back. I looked this up. Tonga's been out since week 10. Milton got hurt shortly after that. So for roughly eight weeks you haven't had the two of those guys. The Patriots defensive rushing success rate was 39% over the first 10 weeks of the season, which is decidedly solid, and it fell all the way to 47% over the last eight weeks. You get those guys back, you have Carlton Davis and Christian Gonzalez. Robert Spillane comes back from an injury that he was dealing with as well. And then you have the, if the likely MVP or at least a contender for mvp. A quarterback like this is not a juggernaut of a team, but I think they are a much better team than, than the popular narrative suggests.
- [72:05]
C
And I think too what I would say with the defense is actually that we've said this about a couple of different units and teams throughout the year. I think they were not that good in getting away with it for a lot of the like first half of the year against playing against some bad teams, some bad quarterbacks. I think over the last six weeks it's actually done some really cool shit, especially up front. Like I think some of the pressures that they're bringing who and where they're dropping guys from, like how they're manipulating some of the pass rush plan. Like I thought the way that obviously the Chargers offensive line is very gettable in terms of manipulating pass rush plans, but like they really took it to the max in that game and they've Been doing that for a lot of the last like month or so of the season. And so I think now that they've dialed in some of that stuff and like you said Dave, they've got a lot of their guys healthy like Milton Williams, their best pass rush pressure, Spillane being back in there that you can kind of use him as a hammerhead too in the passing game. Like they, it's, it's not a perfect defense, but they've got some stuff and they're throwing more pitches.
- [72:58]
A
Now if you look at it, the next gen numbers, I think they're like a yard per carry better with Spain on the field than with him off the field this year. And we, we know normal caveats about the noise with on off splits, but I do think it's at least worth mentioning. I think some of what you're talking about is that they were starting to play with lighter boxes in the middle of the season. And so there are some structural reasons that I think teams are running the ball better. But the fact that now have all of your best front seven players back in the mix is certainly helpful. I just think that a lot of the ways the Patriots want to play defense right now is, are set up to give the Texans problems with the way that they've played specifically. The Patriots will kind of play whatever they need to on the back end based on who the opponent is. Like whatever you're not very good at. They're comfortable doing that against the Ravens and the Bills. They played a lot of man because teams the Ravens and the Bills weren't as good against against mankind coverage. But they're happy sitting in a bunch of split safety coverages. They did it a lot against the Chargers last weekend. The Texans this year per next gen bottom 10 in passing success rate versus split safety coverages, sixth in passing success rate against single high coverages. And just think about it, you can imagine it just some of those crossers against single high and their ability to hit some of those in breakers. That's what they want to do. And so if you're trying to clog the middle of the field and you're taking that away, I do think that the Patriots are going to have the right plan for who the Texans want to be. And Derek mentioned this. The Patriots in the back half of the season, they've gotten more creative with the pass rush plan. Four of their highest cover zero rates all year have come in the last six weeks. They went up near 10% like three different times since week 13, which is a lot. The Texans this year per next gen stats, 31st in success rate versus cover zero. They lost more EPA on those plays than any team in the league. League negative one EPA per drop back against cover zero, not point one. So the Texans lost a point of value every single time a team ran cover zero against them. And the Patriots have started to do that more and more as we've gotten deeper into the season.
- [74:58]
B
And now you tell me they don't have Nico Collins. Yeah, that sounds. That sounds like a recipe for trying to. To get wild with it and run some cover zero.
- [75:09]
A
I think that the Texans defense is in a place where they can nuke any game they play in. I just think that figuring out how the Patriot, how the Texans offense is going to score enough to win this game, it's tough for me. And that brings me to the first point I made. It's like, I don't know how to square this. Like, I don't know where I land because of that.
- [75:29]
B
Would you rather have an A plus and a D or two Bs? Because I'll take the two Bs.
- [75:38]
A
Historically, my answer is two Bs.
- [75:40]
B
If you want the A plus, I get that. And I'm not trying to say the Texans can't win this game. Like, this defense is ferocious, but I'll take my chances with two pretty good units, one of which has one of the best quarterbacks in the league this year over a very imbalanced team at this point in time.
- [75:58]
A
I think that's the right answer. But you're not sure it's my answer.
- [76:01]
B
You just don't want to be on the other side of this fun of a defense. And that's totally fine.
- [76:05]
A
I think that might be it.
- [76:06]
B
That's fine.
- [76:06]
A
I honestly think that might be it. I'm. I'm willing to admit that I'm in the same boat.
- [76:10]
C
I think, I think so often my North Star, for games that I really struggle with, are just like, all right, what is the unit that I think is the best one? And I think it's the Texans defense. Like, I think they might be the best unit left in the entire playoff field.
- [76:24]
A
And so Seattle's defense, I think will. Seattle certainly gives them a run for their money.
- [76:30]
C
It's one of those two, I think, like, pretty clearly to me. But I. We've talked about this a little bit too. I think because of the style of it. I lean towards Houston and I just. There. There's something about it that is. I, I think they could just go and win a game.
- [76:44]
A
This I was trying. I was thinking about this earlier this week. Just again, we've made this comparison a bunch. And the Seahawks, by the way, the Seahawks are physical. They're fast. Like, this is not some like finesse defense. Now I'm not, I, I say this with love. This is not the Bills defense where they're getting by with finesse. That's not what the Seahawks are. The Seahawks will come out and kick the shit out of you. But if I'm, if I'm trying to land on like what is different about. About it? When you play the Seahawks, it feels like they have 12 guys. It feels like they have more players than you. When you play the Texans, they have 11 guys. But all of those guys are insane people. Like they're, they're just absolute monsters, every single one of them.
- [77:23]
B
The Seahawks have 12 players. The Texans have 11. But all 11 of them have a hammer.
- [77:28]
A
Yeah.
- [77:29]
C
Yes, yes, yes. They all have a hammer and they all have jet packs.
- [77:34]
A
That is what it feels like. Two more stats I wanted to throw out that I think are worth noting. The Patriots have been slightly worse against man coverage this year than they have been against zone and the Texans played this per Next Gen 17 and a half percent man over the first half of the year, 32% in the second half of the year. So they've really cranked up the amount of man coverage. They played Houston in the second half of the season. Curious if they do that again. May did struggle relatively against the man looks at the Chargers threw at him last week. But that's enough of a change up for the Chargers where maybe you can jump on them a little bit. The Patriots are going to have a plan for what the Texans man stuff is going to look like in this game and the other one that I think is worth throwing out because again if you're imagining the plays that the Texans offense can make Houston this year sixth highest rate of condensed sets in the NFL. Patriots are fourth in EPA per drop back against condensed sets this season. So you think about all of the. Again, just those crossers from condensed sets, those in breakers from condensed sets that the Texans want to run. The Patriots for the most part have been really good against those this year. Let's get to our last one here. The Los Angeles Rams at the Chicago Bears.
- [78:39]
E
Can I jump in really quick? I am sorry guys.
- [78:41]
A
You sure can.
- [78:41]
E
We can. Let's rewind one game because we just got a little bit of information. Officially Fred Warner not playing. So we got that Sam Darnold has popped up on the injury Report questionable with an oblique injury that came from nowhere.
- [78:54]
A
So there you go.
- [78:55]
E
Charles Cross is playing for.
- [78:56]
A
I think Sam Darnold's playing too.
- [78:58]
E
I think he is too.
- [78:59]
A
Just a heads up worth noting, but.
- [79:01]
C
Injured Sam Darnold sounds prone to ugly football game.
- [79:05]
B
So you're telling me to believe there's.
- [79:07]
A
A chance Derek is starting to believe. Rams at Bears. Rams are three and a half point favorites in this game. Imagine if I told you on Halloween that the Bears would be playing a divisional round playoff game against the Rams and the Rams would only be three and a half point favorites and the.
- [79:26]
B
Game would be in Chicago.
- [79:27]
A
Yes.
- [79:28]
B
I wouldn't have believed you. I would have said, ha, that's cute. Robert. Join me in reality.
- [79:33]
C
Yeah, I said that being the case, you would have had to told me that.
- [79:37]
B
Actually.
- [79:37]
C
I don't even know like you would.
- [79:39]
A
Have had the Rams.
- [79:40]
C
Yes. You would have had to tell me that like Matthew Stafford went down and they just like lost more games than they should have or something like that. That's the only way I could see it.
- [79:47]
B
I mean they did lose more games than they should have, but still does not prepare me for the Rams visiting in the divisional round.
- [79:56]
A
This is a tough push and pull when you're thinking about the emotional aspect of this game because there's part of you, it's like, man, what a fun season. This has been.
- [80:04]
B
Incredible.
- [80:05]
A
You're playing with house money. If you lose this game to the Rams, it's like you're. That isn't a perfectly acceptable way for your season to end. But once you get to the divisional round, that shit's out the window, man. There's none of that to be had.
- [80:17]
B
I can tie this together with Chicago, actually, because I remember the 06 Saints came out of nowhere to reach the NFC title game. And it was the year after Katrina and it was like the most feel good season ever. And we were just happy to be there. There, you know what sucked? Getting walked down by the Bears in the NFC title game. Like house money doesn't exist after a certain point. And when the end goal comes into view, which is divisional weekend, that's all bullshit. Like, you can tell yourself whatever you want, but every team left in the field is starting to believe or already fully believes.
- [80:50]
A
Yeah, when you're down to the final eight, I think you have to get yourself there. And I unfortunately, unfortunately for me, I do think that I'm there.
- [80:57]
C
Well, and also the way they won their last game, like, you cannot win that that way and be like, I guess the Rest is just house money. Get the out of here. Like we're going all the way.
- [81:11]
A
I'm trying to protect myself here. Derek is just refusing to let it.
- [81:14]
B
Happen because it's a lie.
- [81:15]
A
You guys are 100%.
- [81:16]
B
It's a lie.
- [81:16]
A
You guys are 100% right? I, I mean, I think Scott was there when Scott was at the game, but last week when, as soon as they won, I started talking myself into who I wanted to play, who I wanted to see win the next week, who I like. It's immediately when that game ends, you start getting yourself there and unfortunately I'm there. The fact that I am shouldn't surprise anybody. We're sitting here talking about this game before we record and Derek is starting to say some out of pocket shit about how likely he thinks it is for the Bears to win this game.
- [81:45]
C
Listen, man, I, I, there's a couple of factors like the, like Matthew Stafford with the weather, the way this Bears offense matches up. Like I'm, I'm spinning myself into it pretty fast.
- [81:56]
A
All right, let's start with that side of the ball because if the Bears are going to win this game, I think it is going to be driven by the way that their offense plays place. So what about this Bears offense against this Rams defense, do you think gives the Bears a shot in this thing?
- [82:08]
C
The Rams defense down the field especially is not very good and I think at earlier parts in the season that was true and they were just doing a good job of the run defense was so good, teams just weren't able to get them in passing downs, all that stuff. I actually do think over the last, actually funny enough really, since like the first Panthers game, like week 13, week 14, it's been clear that you can get this Ram secondary down the field, especially their corners. If you make their corners do anything but sit on top of routes and like drive on stuff that's under 10 yards and just like go try to pick balls off. They struggle like they, you can snap them off on some of these deep corner routes. If they try to go chase a dig, they're always a step slow. And then even if you're just size matching them up like one on one, you saw what the Panthers were able to do with Tetaroa, McMillan, Jalen Cody. They can just outsize guys like Emmanuel Forbes and Kobe Durant. I know the Bears receiving core isn't quite that, but like Roma, Dunze has some of that to him and then to me, really the guy, Colson Loveland can basically be a wide receiver and so if they split him out and match him up against some of those guys like I just the way that this team is built and the way that the Bears want to attack, right, like all they want to do is throw 15, 20, 25 yard chunks down the field. It just feels to me like they are built for a game like this to score 30 plus on this Rams defense.
- [83:27]
A
It's funny because the love one stuff he lines up as the number one receiver split out wide consistently within the offense. They're doing that in large part to get coverage tells to kind of do things to teams formationally, not necessarily to create matchups for him against corners in this game. It might actually be something worth thinking about.
- [83:44]
B
Box him out.
- [83:46]
C
Yeah, I, I, I want Colson Loveland on Emmanuel Forbes as many times as I can get it.
- [83:51]
A
I do think, and I'm with you, I think that a lot of the things the Bears want to be offensively, that's the way that you want to attack the Rams. The first point I'll make the run game just flat out. The Bears have had one of the best run games in the NFL this year. It was not good last week. That's because of the way the packers were playing them. The packers per Next Gen loaded the box. So more defenders than blockers on 75% of the bears runs last week. Week. That was the second highest mark in a game this season by any team.
- [84:21]
C
That, that is, that's some like one off playoff bullshit.
- [84:25]
A
Yes. And so I just don't expect The Rams have two games this year where they were over 40%. The packers were at 75 last week. That's not the way that the packers want to play.
- [84:35]
B
Not the Rams.
- [84:36]
A
That's not the way that the Rams want to play. They're playing with light boxes at a top eight rate. I assume that they'll devote more resources to the run than they would against an average team. But I don't think it'll be that extreme. And I think the Bears will look better this week than it looked last week. That aside, the way the Bears want to throw the ball like Derek said, the Bears want to be ripping these digs off play action. That, that, that is what the baseline of the offense is this year. The Rams are 29th in success rate allowed off play action per Next Gen. And here's the kicker. They are dead last against in breakers off play action of any team in the league and that's the entire Bears off. And so I do think some of the in breakers all play action. Some of the crossers and the Bears are really good at this where I'll be curious what the Rams do against the 12 personnel the Bears want to use because the Rams play base to 60% of their 12 personnel snaps. If they do that and you're the Bears, the Bears are more than comfortable breaking out those 12 personnel looks where they'll create some horizontal stretch and running some big crossers to burden like out of those. Look they'll do things where they'll have commit just going like some sort of exit motion. Create that with horizontally and then they'll have burden come back on one of those crossers. You can see that against the Rams defense the way that it's currently built. And so there is a path there. There 100% is.
- [85:57]
B
This sounds harsh because he was so good in the early going of the season and what deserved a contract extension. But Quinn Lake got picked on last week and first game back. First game back in 78 weeks. Maybe, maybe he's better with a, you know a week to get his feet underneath him. But I would want to find that out if I was the Bears. Like where's, where's 37 and who's on him? Let's get the ball to that guy because he gave up 8 for 94 on 11 targets. Easily his worst worst day of the season. So Luther Burton DJ Moore plays plenty in the slot. Like I would be looking for that.
- [86:32]
A
Early and often Couple of run game numbers. Rams are dead last in stuff rate this year defensively. They just do not create a lot of negative plays in the run game which that's a lot of the I get me get out of here with the weird run game bullshit in this game. If, if I see a reverse pivot handoff to a running to a wide receiver that goes for negative 5 yards in this game, I'm going to lose my mind because if you just line up and run the ball, I do think that there will be enough down to down consistency for you to feel good about it.
- [87:03]
B
You know who your coach is.
- [87:04]
A
I, I, I, I really do know who the coach. I really do. So those are the things I'm like really looking for on that side of the ball. The thing that is and again the Rams still have a good defense. They still have a good run defense. And so while I think the Bears run game will be better, I don't think this is a situation where the Bears are necessarily going to run all over them. And if you get into some of these third and seven third Nates there are two things that have left me in like a cold sweat. Jared Verse against the backup left tackle is make me is going to make me lose sleep over the next three days. Like that is something that's con that is absolutely worth worrying about about. And the Bears in some of those looks third and seven, third and eight. Especially if teams are going to mug it up a little bit. They do run a lot of screens in those situations. In order to limit the downside. The Rams have been the best screen defending team in the NFL this year. 20% success rate against screens and so if they can be stout against the run and you're forcing the Bears into those pass first situations, I do think that's where things maybe start to unravel a little bit.
- [88:06]
B
If you're do you have a preference of Theo Benedetta or Braxton Jones?
- [88:11]
A
I think it's probably Benedict just because he's been playing like the idea that Braxton Jones is coming in cold that would concern me.
- [88:18]
B
Jared Verse has 22 pressures, two sacks, three quarterback hits over the last month and that's not to mention what he did on special teams in that Falcons game.
- [88:28]
A
Jared Verse, who is one of my favorite players in the NFL being the person who nukes this Bears season would be it's not the way I want to go out.
- [88:35]
C
A small note I'll actually say on the pass rush to the the Rams edges because they're long and strong. Keeping Caleb in the pocket actually probably is the better way to rush the passage here as opposed to like giving him some of those you know, you try to to bend the edge too fast and he just wheels out the back the way that he usually can.
- [88:53]
A
I just like spit out everything I thought about this game. Anything else on this side of the ball that you guys feel like is worth mentioning or is it fun of mine for you?
- [88:59]
B
You it ties into what Derek said at the top but since that loss to the Panthers the Rams have allowed the second most explosive pass plays in the league. 46 over the last whatever that is. 5, 6, 7 weeks of the season their explosive play rate has ballooned up to almost 18% which is a bottom 10 number in the league. You you can get them and I like the Bears between between just the way the passing game functions on its own. Caleb's ability to extend plays and the skill talent like there should be explosive plays for the Bears in this game as long as the weather semi cooperates.
- [89:37]
C
And to the point about extending actually the team that's gotten a ton of the explosives against the Rams secondary has been the Panthers. And I think the Bears can do a lot of what the Panthers have been doing. The one thing the Panthers couldn't do successfully was boots. Just because anytime Bryce Young got out, like once he started to wheel around, whoever was chasing him was just a better athlete than him and could hunt him down. That's not the case with Caleb Williams. Like Caleb Williams is a pretty special boot player. He can probably get a couple of explosives, maybe take one or two of those as a carry and pick up some yards. So I just again, almost no matter how you look at it, I just feel like the Bears offense is designed and equipped to put up a lot of points on the Rams here.
- [90:16]
A
I certainly hope so. I think it's worth mentioning we. And because it's so extreme that it absolutely might affect the game, it's going to be really cold and so there is a chance that just the quality of the offenses is diminished in this game because of what the conditions look like. Last point on this side of the ball, I went back and watched the Lions game. I just felt like that might have been the best. All right, what did the Rams do against the Lions offense? Because there's some shared schematic DNA. Golf hit 2 just like posts against quarters, like foot in the ground. My guy has the leverage. I'm letting this thing go. Can you get one of those in this game? Can we get like one deep post touchdown against early down quarters which the Rams have played more of in the second half of the season than they did in the first half of the season. That's not been Caleb's strength like really letting those ver. He's been very good pushing the ball down the field. But those sorts of like the safety's taken one step down. I see that this ball is coming out right now. That's not necessarily who he is. But I do think that there was an opportunity for a play like that might be there against.
- [91:16]
C
If there's any time for them to pull that out and for him to take what does feel like a next developmental step for him, this would certainly be the game.
- [91:23]
A
Why that's important is I think the Rams are also probably going to score a lot of points in this game.
- [91:28]
B
Unfortunately could be the most entertaining game of the weekend. I mean I'd be. I. I don't want to say that because like all these games are great in their own. In their own right. Let me rephrase. Highest scoring game of the weekend. The only thing that gives me pause is the fact that it's going to be like 5 degrees.
- [91:42]
A
I think the over under is like 55 or excuse me, 50. The over under is like 50. It was like 50 to 51 and a half even with it being like 5 degrees outside. And so I, I do feel like the offenses are set up for success. Derek. I just have a hard time imagining like what the Bears best plan is on that side of the ball if they're going to slow Stafford down.
- [92:03]
C
I, I think I, I come down with a couple of, of. I think it's very difficult. I will say, say if we're talking about the weather, I feel like that does hurt Los Angeles more than it hurts the Bears because I just think if both of these teams can run well, I think the Bears are more equipped to get more explosives. And so if that's going to be part of the game, I think that hurts them. I also think Caleb Williams just being a better younger athlete like that probably helps them as well. Whereas I think we've seen like he is like at Stafford.
- [92:31]
A
This is, this is, this is the, the comment of a 28 year old man who's like man, he's 37, he might as well be dead.
- [92:37]
C
Oh, I don't know man. Did you see kind of looks.
- [92:40]
B
Did you see Stafford try to scramble against the Panthers last week or.
- [92:44]
C
Honestly I, Last year Stafford threw the belt the ball really well against the Eagles. A couple of those moments where he maybe could have moved in the pocket or got knocked off his spot because it was I think a little bit cold and snowing like I, Those moments I think did hurt them in that game. We'll see how it shows up in this one. Obviously that Eagles defense was. Miles. Miles, I was about to say, do.
- [93:04]
A
You think the Bears defensive line is going to be pushing him off his spot in this game? Game?
- [93:08]
C
Well, that does lead me to my next point. If I'm the Bears, I'm throwing the kitchen sink at Matthew Stafford. I'm, I'm throwing everything and I know that, I know that he does really well to replace it. They're going to get some explosive plays no matter what. I think if you're going to win this game you have to get four or five really uncomfortable moments from Matthew Stafford in the pocket. I just don't know if you do that if you're rushing for.
- [93:34]
A
I think that early down blitzing can be part of the plan. And when, when they've thrown the ball, by the way, the Rams on early downs, when teams have blitzed them, they have torched teams 0.35 EPA per drop back against the blitz on early downs. 57% success rate. I think one of the reasons you maybe live with the volatility there is the reason the Bears were able to start slowing down the packers run game in this second half of that game is that they were sending a lot of run blitzes. It's guys coming off the edge, it's brisker, it's Gordon. You can crash the defensive ends inside because of that. And so if you can start creating some neutral or negative runs on first down, if it's second and 10, I think that's when it's worth doing. I don't want to be vacating space on third down against this team. I think that's where it gets scary. If he's sitting back in the gun and you got a guy coming from the second level, that to me is where he can start to pick you apart. But if you want to blitz on early downs as part of your run defense plan, that to me is probably where I would try to tap into that stuff.
- [94:36]
C
What do you want them to do then?
- [94:39]
A
I don't know. I really don't know. I really, I really don't know. I. Because like, what do you you thinking? Like zone blitzes where you're like. Because if you. This team is a terrible man coverage team. Like a terrible man coverage team. You saw that happen last week. And so if you're play man against this team in blitz, I just feel like you're setting yourself up to get barbecued.
- [95:04]
B
You.
- [95:04]
C
You probably are, but I almost think it's. We've talked about this a little bit before with the Bears. Like it is a damned if you do, damned if you don't defense. I am maybe this is me just like personal preference. I'm going down swinging, man. Like I'm. We're going to throw some stuff at you and we're going to hope that we can get one or two explosives back.
- [95:22]
B
I hate to say, I hate to call it a pivot because the Rams have been good at running the football all year. But, but when you think about the Rams, it's so easy to fixate on the receivers and Stafford slinging the ball the way that he does. Given the conditions and given what you might be able to do, do you think the Rams could play a more buttoned up possession style of football? Because that's when I, when I heard that Kevin Dotson is probably coming back for this game, I started wondering like, do the Rams just try to steamroll this game and just take the air out of the football and football for as long as they possibly can.
- [96:01]
A
They can, yeah, I think they absolutely can. There is a world where they're just running for 567-576 like that. That version of the game is not hard for me to imagine whatsoever.
- [96:10]
B
Four games since Kevin Dotson got his footstepped on in the Seattle game, the Rams rushing success rate has dipped nine points from their season long total. Like I think it makes a huge difference. They didn't manage a single explosive run run in in the last two games. The only other time that's happened this year where they didn't have a single explosive run was when they played the Texans in week one. So I think they're going to try to make a concerted effort to get the run game going. The Bears explosive run rate is 4th worst in the NFL. Like not obviously Puka and Devonte Adams are going to touch the ball in this game, but I wonder if this is going to be a more smash mouth style of football because ironically the, I think the popular talking point is that the Hollywood team that plays in the glitzy stadium in LA doesn't know how to do that. But I bet they'll try at Soldier Field.
- [97:02]
A
I think they're well equipped to play that. I, I, I feel like that's the team they've been all year. I think one of the reasons this game could be lower scoring is if we don't have as many possessions because both teams are just stringing drives together like that wouldn't necessarily surprise me. The last element on that side of the ball that I think is worth bringing up the Rams this year. I, I feel like the obviously like the Panthers beating them and then giving them a closer game than we might expect. It would be simple to say like we'll just do some of the stuff the Panthers are doing. We mentioned this last week heading into the game the Panthers are the best team in the league this year at defending under center play action passes. And so that element of what the Panthers were doing to them specifically I do think is worth trying to tap into. And what the Panthers did a great job of is though the flat defenders on that defense are just getting so much depth that you are making them try to throw the ball underneath. And if they're not, can you get one or two? And that to me it feels like a necessary component of this. Can you win the takeaway, win the turnover battle by one, hopefully two. And can you get a special teams flub? Because I think if that happens you give yourself A shot.
- [98:11]
B
Look at you being the one to bring up special teams.
- [98:13]
A
I need to grasp at any straw I can.
- [98:14]
B
But you know, that is such a phenomenal point and I'm usually the one that brings it up. But like the Rams, special teams have screwed them at times this year and that, that is very worth remembering on a nasty day.
- [98:27]
C
If this is going to be a game where both teams are running the ball and we're limiting possessions, those special teams errors matter more because it's like a more outsized part of the game now. And so I just. There is a way for the Bears to do this.
- [98:40]
B
There really is a stat that I loved. You won't be surprised to hear the Bears are not very good at defending on our center play action, which is.
- [98:49]
A
They're one of the worst teams in the league.
- [98:50]
B
They are one of the worst teams in the league. Their down to down success rate is third worst in the NFL. Their EPA per drop back is better than that because they bounce into interceptions and have goofy shit go their way.
- [99:03]
A
That, that to me is what needs to happen. Yes, you, you need like a sinking flat defender to get his hand on the ball and, and, and tip up an interception because Stafford is trying to fit a ball into a window. Because you look at the numbers Stafford this year, 51% of his attempts have gone to the sticks. 51%. That is the highest rate in this team. Wants to push the ball like that's who they want to be. And I think trying to use that against them in the way that the Panthers were able to in both matchups this year. And you can steal back to one to two possessions because of that. I think that has to be part of this.
- [99:38]
B
It's a really cool story that the Bears managed to win last week without the bounces going their way.
- [99:45]
A
And like the turnovers didn't go their way. I'd say some bounces went their way.
- [99:48]
B
I mean that. But, but the turnover bounce, you know, the Watson fumble and the Fumb kickoff and all that type of stuff didn't go their way. But it needs to happen in this game. Like they, they need to make those plays or like they won't beat the Rams if they don't win the turnover margin or like have those, you know, the fluky football plays go in their favor. I don't think we are in a.
- [100:13]
A
Place where all I could think about is that hope is a dangerous thing.
- [100:16]
B
Would you rather get it out of the way early or are you happy that it's the last game of the weekend?
- [100:20]
A
Oh, I'd rather get out of the way early. Again, the fact that we have to record and then roll right or the fact that ends we have to roll right into it. We'll see how that goes.
- [100:28]
B
I can't wait.
- [100:29]
A
Really looking forward to all the games this weekend. Again, it is the best football weekend of the year. I could not be more excited. We will be coming your guys way on Saturday and Sunday night live from this spot right here. So please come back and check things out on Saturday night. For now, that's all we got. Appreciate you guys listening. We'll talk to you soon.
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F
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D
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