The Athletic Football Show

Divisional Round Preview: The Best Weekend of the NFL Season

Date: January 16, 2026
Host: Robert Mays
Co-hosts: Derrik Klassen, Dave Helman

Overview of Episode Theme

The Athletic Football Show dives deep into the four NFL Divisional Round matchups, with host Robert Mays and analysts Derrik Klassen and Dave Helman offering Xs and Os breakdowns, matchup angles, and bold predictions. All three hosts agree: this is the "best football weekend of the year" due to both the quality of teams and the number of storylines in play. Each game is previewed chronologically, providing a comprehensive and engaging look at why these matchups matter and how each team might win. The panel mixes wit, inside knowledge, and tangible football expertise, ensuring listeners are entertained and informed.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. NFL Divisional Round — Why It's the Best Weekend (02:14–04:00)

• Robert Mays opens with enthusiasm, calling divisional weekend “my favorite football weekend of the year.”
• Unique mix of familiar and new faces in the playoffs generates excitement.
• Notably strong defensive units stand out this season, with the Texans and Seahawks defenses described as the "best single units left" (04:01–04:28).

Memorable Quote:
"This is my favorite football weekend of the year. I think this is the best time of year in the NFL." – Robert Mays (02:14)

2. Game 1: Bills at Broncos (Preview & Deep Dive)

Segment Start: 05:18

General Analysis & Stakes

• Denver is a 1-point home favorite, but the hosts agree it feels like a coin flip due to uncertainties on both sides.
• Denver: 14 wins, strong defense, but described as “a very flawed 14-win team” (05:34–07:04).
• Buffalo: Injury-riddled, especially at receiver and safety, but with Josh Allen as the “best player in this game” (18:40–19:06).

Bills Offense vs. Broncos Defense (11:16–22:00)

• Expect the Bills to attack the Broncos’ run defense with “weak zone” and “duo” concepts—double-teaming interior defenders like Zach Allen, who’s described as vulnerable to those.
• Tight ends Kincaid and Knox must produce explosive plays; Broncos have given up 17 explosive plays to TEs this year.
• The hosts stress the need for Buffalo to “just keep the heart rate steady” in the ground game (20:55–21:19).

Memorable Quotes:

• "Josh Allen is the best player in this game. ... You just sort of take that for granted after a while. But you're so right." – Dave Helman (19:04)
• “This feels to me like the sort of game where Dalton Kincaid needs two explosive catches.” – Robert Mays (16:19)

Broncos Offense vs. Bills Defense (22:00–30:24)

• Broncos’ dropback scheme is RPO-heavy, quick game—less susceptible to the disguised coverages that stymied Jacksonville last week.
• Expect a focus on one-on-ones outside: Bills’ corners (Benford, White) must win their battles against Denver’s wideouts.
• Bills’ defense strong at reducing yards after catch (YAC), which is key versus Denver's short-pass, YAC-based offense.

What Will Decide the Game?

• Can Denver run the ball? Both teams have reasons for optimism.
• The hosts expect a close, physical struggle likely decided by 3 points or less: “24 to 21… that kind of feels right.” – Robert Mays (27:11)

3. Game 2: 49ers at Seahawks (Segment Start: 33:36)

Strength vs. Strength (Seahawks Defense vs. 49ers Offense)

• Seahawks are 7-point favorites.
• Mike MacDonald's defense (SEA) is “deep and talented” and especially equipped to neutralize the Niners’ middle-of-field attack.
• Brock Purdy’s struggles vs. quick pressure and tight windows over the middle are highlighted.
• Loss of George Kittle looms large: “What is the path for this Niners team without George Kittle to score more than 20 points against the Seahawks?” – Robert Mays (35:30)

49ers Keys on Offense

• 17 points "would be a win" for SF.
• Availability of Trent Williams, Ricky Pearsall critical; without them, explosiveness is nearly impossible.
• The Seahawks squeeze space, play quarters, and crowd the box, forcing SF to throw deep outs and comebacks—throws Brock Purdy struggles with, especially minus Kittle.

Quote:
"The Seahawks were a wood vice... there was no room in the pocket, there was no room on the field. They didn't honor like any ability of the Niners to create space.” – Dave Helman (38:20)

Seahawks Offense vs. 49ers Defense (45:01–52:36)

• Seahawks moved the ball well in Week 18 but failed to finish drives; hosts expect better efficiency this time.
• Niners' only path: turn up the heat, blitz more, invite chaos. Need to “thread the needle” and keep the game ugly and low-scoring.
• Missing Fred Warner is a potentially huge loss.

Quote:
"This is like threading a needle for sure. If they do it, I think it's because it's an ugly game." – Robert Mays (51:02)

4. Game 3: Texans at Patriots (54:20–76:44)

The Unit-on-Unit Matchup of the Weekend

• Patriots favored by 3.5
• Patriots’ offense (with likely MVP Drake Maye) vs. Texans’ top-ranked defense—“the biggest strength-on-strength matchup” (67:40)
• Pats are best in the NFL vs. the coverages the Texans play (Cover 3 and Quarters), but the Texans pass rush and man coverage have ratcheted up in the second half.

Patriots Offense vs. Texans Defense

• Patriots must attack downfield—Drake Maye is “as accurate as you can possibly be” on those throws (57:49).
• Maye excels vs. blitz and under pressure; his knack for minimizing the damage of sacks (“he’s really good at sacks not ruining Patriots drives”) is discussed (60:30).
• Will Campbell’s matchup with Danielle Hunter on the edge is cited as critical.

Quote:
"Would you rather have an A+ and a D or two B's? I'll take the two B's." – Dave Helman (75:29), arguing Pats are the more balanced team.

Texans Offense vs. Patriots Defense

• Texans run game explosion last week was seen as an outlier.
• Losing Nico Collins is a potential death blow: “Worst case scenario for this Texans passing game.” – Derrik Klassen (70:26)
• Patriots have gotten healthy across the defensive front, matched up well scheme-wise with what Houston likes.
• Pats bring more aggressive, creative pressure recently, and Houston has struggled mightily against Cover 0 (74:57).

5. Game 4: Rams at Bears (Set-up: 79:01–99:44)

Emotional Stakes and Matchup Vibes

• "House money" feelings no longer apply now that Chicago is in the final eight—every team left is "starting to believe" (80:50).
• Bears’ offense matches well against a Rams defense vulnerable to downfield passing and play action in-breakers.

Bears Offense vs. Rams Defense

• Bears’ run game should bounce back against Rams’ light boxes; Rams are dead last in stuff rate, struggle off play-action in-breakers.
• Colson Loveland could be a unique weapon as a split-out “receiver” versus undersized corners (83:26–83:44).
• Jared Verse presents a major pass rush threat, especially if Bears are forced into obvious passing downs.

Quote:
"All they want to do is throw 15, 20, 25 yard chunks down the field. It just feels to me like they are built for a game like this to score 30-plus on this Rams defense." – Derrik Klassen (83:26)

Rams Offense vs. Bears Defense

• Rams could go run-heavy (especially with Kevin Dotson back) to control the game, given Chicago is poor at defending explosive runs.
• Bears’ best shot: early down blitzes to create some negative plays, and hope for game-changing turnovers or special teams errors.

Quote:
"The Rams have been good at running the football all year... do the Rams just try to steamroll this game and just take the air out of the football?" – Dave Helman (95:22)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments (with Timestamps)

• Mays (02:14): "This is my favorite football weekend of the year. I think this is the best time of year in the NFL."
• Helman (19:04): "Josh Allen is the best player in this game. ... You just sort of take that for granted after a while. But you're so right."
• Mays (35:30): “What is the path for this Niners team without George Kittle to score more than 20 points against the Seahawks?”
• Klassen (83:26): "All they want to do is throw 15, 20, 25 yard chunks down the field. It just feels to me like they are built for a game like this to score 30 plus on this Rams defense."
• Helman (75:29): "Would you rather have an A+ and a D or two B's? I'll take the two B's."

Timestamps for Major Segments

• Opening/Setting the Stage: 02:14–04:00
• Bills at Broncos Preview: 05:18–30:24
• 49ers at Seahawks Preview: 33:36–52:36
• Texans at Patriots Preview: 54:20–76:44
• Rams at Bears Preview: 79:01–99:44

Closing Thoughts

The Athletic Football Show team provides an expert-level, high-energy discussion for fans wanting to understand the nuance, schemes, and narratives that could decide each Divisional Round matchup. With clear-eyed breakdowns—backed by film and analytic evidence—plus the right amount of humor and perspective, this episode primes listeners for what the hosts agree is the NFL’s most entertaining weekend.