← The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL
The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL
Drake Maye or Matthew Stafford? It's the TAFS 2025 Awards Show!
01:24:19
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- [00:00]
Robert Mays
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- [02:37]
Robert Mays
Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays giving out some 2025 awards today. This show is fun as hell. I'm just telling you guys right now we picked all the big ones, all the ones that you would expect. The same ones we picked on the mid season show. Dug into offensive and defensive player of the year first. Followed that up with some of the rookies. Talked about assistant coach of the year which to me is like one of interesting arguments among all of these. And Dave actually kind of shocked me. We had the same pick. I did not anticipate that happening. Dug into coach of the year which again an incredibly crowded field. Really enjoyed that conversation. And then the MVP debate, the one that we have not talked that much about on this show but obviously there's tons of stuff to dig into there and really enjoyed kind of untangling The Matthew Stafford vs Drake May discussion with my guys Derek Klassen and Dave Hellman. So let's get to that conversation right now. Time to hand out some 2025 season long NFL awards. We haven't really talked about any of this stuff for the most part since our mid season show. I feel like we could have mined the MVP debate more than we did. That's why I'm bad at content I guess.
- [03:51]
Derek Klassen
But how like going back and forth.
- [03:52]
Dave Hellman
On the same like every day like.
- [03:54]
Derek Klassen
In other years it's like I remember, I think it was 2023 when the won it. It was like Dak had an insane like surge toward the end and so it was like there it felt like there was more intrigue this year. It kind of did feel like from like week seven on it was Drake made Stafford.
- [04:08]
Dave Hellman
It's felt very cut and dry and I also kind of appreciate just letting it get to the end and marinating on it because I'm the one and I don't regret it by the way. He was playing great but after five or six weeks I was like yeah, Baker Mayfield would be my MVP right now and look how insane that looks in January. So like it's not a bad thing to just sort of let things simmer.
- [04:27]
Robert Mays
We I think checking in on mid season and then checking it out at the end of the year the way that we do, I'm fine with that process. Like I think if I will continue to do it that way for the rest of the time. As long as I'm in charge of programming the show.
- [04:38]
Dave Hellman
It's so tedious to every week be like, well, well, well, look who threw a pick today. Like that's not for me.
- [04:44]
Robert Mays
We're gonna wait till the end to do MVP the same way we do every single time we have an award show on this podcast. We're going to start where my mid season notes started. I just used the same outline. That's. That's how we're laying this out. There's no more complicated than that with offensive player of the year. I had JSN midway through the season. He was having a historic season. He still had an incredible season. He is not my winner. Now, Dave, why don't you kick us off? Who is your offensive player of the year?
- [05:09]
Dave Hellman
That's really funny and it speaks to how much can change in half a year. Because when we did this at mid season, I made the case for Jonathan Taylor and I was really high on that and I was very adamant that how he was fueling Indianapolis offense needed to be recognized. Obviously, a lot has changed since we did that show and I actually, and I love doing shows like this with y' all because we just, we see things similarly but just just different enough to make it interesting. And you said before the show that it's not going to be JSN for you. That's who I landed on.
- [05:42]
Robert Mays
I think it was you made for jsn.
- [05:45]
Dave Hellman
I landed on Jackson, Smith and Jigba as my offensive player of the year. And I sounds ridiculous to say he hasn't been as good in the second half of the season. I mean, he finished with 1700 yards for the number one seed the NFC. It hasn't been quite as incredible, I would say, over the last like five, six weeks. We know the Seahawks offense has sort of faltered a little bit, but at the end of the day, step back.
- [06:09]
Derek Klassen
That's all.
- [06:09]
Dave Hellman
I step back. 119 catches, almost 1800 yards, 10 touchdowns, led the league in explosive plays, slightly trailed Puka Nakua in yards per route run, 11 air yards per target. And here's the thing that ultimately differentiated this for me, because it, for me, it came down to, with all due respect to Christian McCaffrey, who had a phenomenal season, if he won this award, I wouldn't bat an eye. But between Pukinakua and Jackson, Smith and Jigba, I looked at it and the differentiator for me was that JSN led the league in team Target share.
- [06:44]
Robert Mays
That, to me, is the Most compelling.
- [06:45]
Dave Hellman
Argument 36% of Seattle's targets went to Jackson, Smith and Jake and what percentage.
- [06:51]
Robert Mays
Of their receiving yardage like it was like up near four years.
- [06:56]
Derek Klassen
Not like it was a Michael Thomas.
- [06:57]
Robert Mays
He had a higher percentage of his team's receiving total than like any receiver in the past like several decades.
- [07:03]
Dave Hellman
And I would argue with all due respect to Cooper cup had like a nice year for where he is in his career and and Seattle's got some good backs and the tight ends played their roles in this offense but it's the JSN show and he was the focal point of that offense for the entire year and basically no one was able to slow him down or shut him out. He got his yards, he got his production. He helped the Seahaw score points all season long despite not really having that Batman or Robin next to him. I mean devonte Adams led the NFL in touchdowns this year. That's who Puka Nakua was working with. And Pukinakua might be the best receiver in football. But season totality and what happened and what it looked like on the field, for all of those reasons, I came away thinking JSN should win this award.
- [07:51]
Derek Klassen
I get it because I almost picked jsn. Still, even with the last five or six weeks kind of being a little bit dampened, I do think part of the reason I was still willing to really, really entertain was one that season and stats are still incredible. But also like I, I never felt like the Seahawks offense faltering had anything to do with him. It wasn't like I was watching the Seahawks and being like man, JSN's not playing as well. It's like no defenses are adapting to JSN being so damn good. And then the offense has tried to find other things as like a drop back game and a run game and they've, it's just been a little bit herky jerky.
- [08:21]
Dave Hellman
So since the last time we did this and we just talked about it, Seattle's offense has taken a step back. It hasn't been quite as fun as what they were doing in the first six, eight weeks. His worst game of the back half of the year, he caught two balls for 23 yards against Minnesota. The Max Brosmer game where you knew 10 minutes into this thing that you didn't need to get out of first gear to win this game. Everything else, it's 6 for 84, 9 for 72, 7 for 113. Like he wasn't chunking up stinkers at all. Like he was still having a really good year. It just Speaks to how insane the first eight or nine weeks were.
- [08:59]
Robert Mays
I think he has a really good argument. He would be in my final four, final five. He'd be my final five. He'd probably be like in the top three. The guys that I had up there that I did not give the award to, and I don't think you did either. And so I'm happy to just list off kind of the honorable mentions here. I think Bijan has to be in the conversation. Sure. 2,300 yards from scrimmage. He's an incredible player. I'm very excited to see what he can do moving forward. I think this is kind of the first glimpse we've gotten of just how special he is this year. But I just don't think when you compare it to the receiving seasons, it's quite on the same level. We'll get into that in a second. JSN is there for me. McCaffrey is just beyond the production for McCaffrey. And again you look at the total yards from scrimmage that he had this year. It's the importance to the offense and what he does to make that offense what he is, what it is, the gravity, what it does to opposing defenses from a like a coverage perspective, the amount of bodies they dedicate to the run when he's in there, the difference with man. And just like what teams are willing to do against the Niners, it's very fun because for the most part the only difference between the 2024 Niners and the 2025 Niners is Christian McCaffrey. And if you look at how differently teams play against them as an experiment, your control is Christian McCaffrey. That's really the only thing that's changed. And so he's just one of the most impactful players in the league. Full stop. And Jonathan Taylor had an incredible season. Obviously he fell off, but I think it's worth mentioning. All that being said, none of those guys are my offensive player of the year.
- [10:22]
Derek Klassen
Pukinakua.
- [10:23]
Robert Mays
It's Pukinakua.
- [10:23]
Dave Hellman
I knew that would probably be Yalls choice. Is he yours?
- [10:27]
Derek Klassen
He is also my choice. He was. I think part of it is. I mean obviously the season long stats are incredible, but in a way that is a little bit different to me than jsn. He was like dominant wire to wire in a way that like because of the off the Seattle offense falling off a little bit, I didn't quite feel that way. And then almost similar to McCaffrey. Even though Devonte Adams is great, there's a Lot of other reasons that the Rams offense works. It all does run through Pukinakua and him having 17.3% of his routes turned into first downs, that's the second best rate in the decade, only behind 2023 Tyreek Hill, which. That was another incredibly special season. And then the other thing for me was honestly when I'm giving out some of these awards, especially at the end of the season, I'm just thinking of like, okay, whose plays do I remember the most? And twice a game with Puka Nakua, he's making some outrageous catch that would be the best catch of anyone else's season. And he's doing that twice a week like he's. He's the most dominant player, I think, at that position.
- [11:23]
Robert Mays
What's crazy to me is Puka had 1400 yards as a rookie and then last year he was incredibly productive. He had 1400 yards as a rookie and then last year he led the league in yards per route run. He is a dramatically better player this year than he was in each of his first two seasons. And there's a bunch of numbers I'm going to read off the first one and this is to me the biggest jump he made this season and why he has gone from a player who I think is very productive to one who is genuinely special. He led the league in EPA per route against man coverage this season. That was the only weakness in his game last year is when he would have to play outside the numbers when he was in one on one situations. That's not where he was best this year for a bunch of different reasons. I think his route running and his release game and just the nuances of his game were so much better in those situations. What he was doing in contested catch moments against man coverage, he had a 20.8% catch rate over expectation against man this year, which was number one in the NFL by far. And anecdotally, that lines up with the players that you're talking about. Contested catches. Overall, he had 27 contested catches. Puka did that, led the league. Some of that is driven by opportunity. He had a 71.1% contested catch rate per PFF. He's the only player in the top 20 of contested targets total with a catch rate over 70%. That level of efficiency with that level of volume is insane. That's truly insane.
- [12:54]
Derek Klassen
With volume like that, it's like, oh, he got a bunch of opportunities. Those opportunities are earned. He gets them because he's insane. And Matthew Stafford knows that he's gonna.
- [13:02]
Robert Mays
Make them exactly Every play to Puka right now is an opportunity because of what doing in one on one situations even down the field. And that was not the strength of his game previously. The two numbers to me that blow it out of the water. Puka led the NFL in EPA per route run per Next Gen stats. There is a bigger gap between him and JSN at 2 than JSN and Ryan Flournoy at 14. What Ryan Flournoy and this is the kicker 115 total receiving EPA for Puka this year per Next gen stats. Pickens was second at 82. That's some nasty wait, what was it? 1:15. That 115 mark is the best mark of the Next gen era. It's better than the Cooper Cup Triple Crown season. It's better than the Michael Thomas 2019 season. By a lot of measures. He had the most impressive receiving season in the last decade. Better than what Jamar Chase did last year. The touchdowns are not overwhelming but the per route per play per target metrics and we said this when we were watching games on Sunday. When you watch the Rams this year, anytime the ball was in the air and you knew it was going to him, you just expected that he was going to make an insane play. And he did.
- [14:13]
Derek Klassen
Most of the time it's it was. We've talked about the phenomenon of like Pete Patrick Mahomes if he rolls out of the pocket and as soon as the ball releases you're just like he's hitting Kelsey somewhere and it's going to be completed. I feel that way when I know that Stafford is targeting Nakua and the ball's in the air and like they're contested. He's fighting on the sideline. I'm like he'll come down with it. Like it's I don't even consider that it's going to be dropped.
- [14:33]
Dave Hellman
I mean ironically it was a play that he didn't finish. But the we talk Falcons recap show that that cat not catch that almost catch at the sideline against the Falcons where he just went over the top one handed and looked like he was gonna get them in position. And then I've seen receivers do that when they're catching on the jugs.
- [14:53]
Derek Klassen
Right.
- [14:54]
Dave Hellman
You know, I've never seen that in a live must have game on the line situation. No I have not.
- [14:59]
Robert Mays
I and then the one that didn't count against the Falcons that got called back, the one down inside the five that can like crazy contested catch that he had. Some of his plays that didn't count are the most impressive plays of the NFL season.
- [15:10]
Dave Hellman
So here's. I agree with everything that you just said, and I feel like you're going to accuse me of talking out of both sides of my mouth a lot on this show because of the way that I view this. But when I think of Offensive Player of the Year, like, I think I would say Puka Naku is the best receiver in football coming out of this season. But. But when I think about these awards, I'm trying to think of, like, the story of the season and week over week, and JSN being it for the Seattle offense that won 14 games, having the season that he had. And it's not all about wins and losses, don't get me wrong. But to be sitting on top of the NFC with an offense that not very many people were bought in on heading into the season. And it's. It's so much about what JSN did every single week. He showed up for that offense every single week. And I think I would take Puka over him if I were drafting them as players, but I think he had the more memorable season for me that I'm going to like. When I think about the 2025 season, I'm going to be like, oh, that was when JSN just went off and was the focal point of an entire team.
- [16:18]
Robert Mays
I think that was true halfway through the year. I think what Puka did in the back half of the season and you put the spectacular plays in there, I think that his play lingers more for me than JSN's does, because I do think of the highway moments, and I.
- [16:31]
Dave Hellman
Do agree with that.
- [16:31]
Robert Mays
It's not just the highway moments. It's the. The production was also more overwhelming than what JSN did. And when you combine those two things together, that's enough for me. All right, let's get to Defensive Player of the Year. I don't even spend a lot of time on who the winner of this should be.
- [16:46]
Dave Hellman
Last time we did this, I remember I came up with a guy and I was like, well, we're going to say Miles Garrett, but that's boring. So I'll come up with a guy. But I didn't bother this time. Like, it's.
- [16:56]
Derek Klassen
Yeah, why would you. He broke the sack record like he was. I'm glad we got to spend a lot more time on Offensive Player of the Year and probably some of these other awards, because Defensive Player of the Year, it's. You broke the sack record. You. You have to give it to him.
- [17:06]
Robert Mays
The only thing I Will say. And I, I think I've brought this up every single time we've talked about defensive player of the year and Miles Garrett is that in my opinion, in any other season, Will Anderson should be the defensive player of the year.
- [17:20]
Derek Klassen
He's the only other guy I wrote down, I wrote under Miles Garrett. I was like, but we should celebrate others. And then I wrote Will Anderson Jr. And then I just stopped the. Because I was like, I don't even know if anyone else, except maybe like Micah Parsons before he got hurt, was close to what Williams was.
- [17:32]
Dave Hellman
He went down and that had an effect obviously.
- [17:34]
Robert Mays
But I just, I just want to talk about. This is funny for me because we, we've danced around this a little bit and a lot of the videos I've done this year have kind of focused on these sorts of players. I think if you look at like the most improved players in the NFL this season, it's a, it's a fun list. Like Alec Pierce is up there for me. Like step like point A to point B. I actually think that JSN and Puka are in the conversation for the most improved players in the NFL this season. Like what they were last year and what they were this year. Which again with Puka, that sounds insane. But like what he is down to down is so much better. I legitimately think that Will Anderson is in that conversation too. Like he went from being.
- [18:10]
Dave Hellman
You've been banging that drum since August.
- [18:12]
Robert Mays
Will Anderson has been awesome. Was awesome before this year, but he took a dramatic leap in a lot of different ways. And if you just look at some of the statistical numbers for Will Anderson this year, the sacks aren't overwhelming. But what he's doing down to down is absolutely crazy. He finished third in the NFL in quick pressures per next gen stats. Only Miles Garrett was chipped more often this year than Will Anderson. Only Miles Garrett in the entire league. He led the NFL in PFF pass rush win rate. He finished second in pressure rate in one on one situations this year per next gen stats. He led the NFL by a lot in splash play percentage which is, it's a combination of a lot of different things. It's like pressure sacks, run stops, TFLs, third and fourth, fourth down stops. He led the league by like several percentage points according to true media. And when you look at it, it's not just what he did as a pass rusher. He finished third in the NFL in run stop percentage among players who played at least 150 run defense snaps on the edge third.
- [19:13]
Derek Klassen
He's because that was the selling point coming in is that I was okay. He can be a really good run defender. We'll see what the ceiling is as a pass rusher. The fact that he's absolutely hit the ceiling as a pass rusher.
- [19:22]
Robert Mays
It's higher than I thought it would be.
- [19:23]
Derek Klassen
It is.
- [19:24]
Robert Mays
He is a better pass rusher this year than I. What he was as a pass rusher this year is beyond the pass rush ceiling. I think you could have like the median outcome pass rush ceiling for him.
- [19:35]
Derek Klassen
It felt like he would be dominant run defender, Pro bowl pass rusher. Yeah, like that to me, like coming out, which it still might end up in the wash like an all pro player altogether. But he truly is like one of the most special pass rushers.
- [19:46]
Robert Mays
He's the second best defense player in the league this year after Micah Parsons got hurt.
- [19:49]
Dave Hellman
I don't have this on the record, so I can't beat my chest too hard. And then I didn't see Will Anderson becoming the second best pass rusher in the league, but I knew he was really, really good. And I do remember feeling like when people talked about his projection coming out of college, I was like, no, like this, this could be a double digit sack guy like with regularity and maybe better. Like I never felt like he really got the kudos he deserved coming out. So I'm glad this is happening and first team all pro is a nice consolation prize because other than that, it's bad timing to have an amazing year because Miles Garrett has 23 sacks and, and I, I love Will Anderson. That's really great. I do think it's worth saying like he definitively deserves to win. I don't care. Yes. Oh, yes. Okay. Because we're, we're talking a lot about Will Anderson. I just, it's, it's just such a.
- [20:38]
Robert Mays
It'S such a given that Miles should win.
- [20:40]
Dave Hellman
We're glossing over Miles because there's not much to say but like what an incredible season and what an incredible player.
- [20:46]
Robert Mays
Well, I said it on Sunday. It's an all time great season by an all time great player.
- [20:50]
Dave Hellman
I'm glad you said that because that was the big thing I wanted to look up up because he's going to win this award. I don't have a vote, but I feel confident saying that only eight players in league history have won defensive player of the year multiple times. You do. It'll be bad podcasting if you guess so I'll just tell you. But they are, they are bad.
- [21:08]
Robert Mays
Mother Taylor, Ray Lewis, J.J. watt, Aaron Donald Julius. Did Julius Peppers win it twice?
- [21:15]
Derek Klassen
No.
- [21:16]
Robert Mays
Bruce Smith.
- [21:17]
Derek Klassen
Yep. That's a good one.
- [21:18]
Dave Hellman
You're doing great. Have you said Mike Singletary? Oh, you're one away.
- [21:24]
Robert Mays
I mean, can.
- [21:25]
Dave Hellman
Can.
- [21:26]
Derek Klassen
So what did you say? He was eight.
- [21:28]
Dave Hellman
Eight. You're at seven.
- [21:30]
Robert Mays
Ed Reed didn't do it.
- [21:31]
Dave Hellman
It's old. Old school. Iconic old school NFL player.
- [21:36]
Robert Mays
It's like one of the Steelers guys.
- [21:37]
Dave Hellman
Yes. Pretty famous nickname. Drink Cocoa Green. Yeah, There you go.
- [21:43]
Derek Klassen
Okay. Yeah.
- [21:43]
Dave Hellman
That is an incredible list.
- [21:45]
Robert Mays
I feel pretty good about that.
- [21:49]
Dave Hellman
Well, but that's the list and Miles Garrett's going to be on it now and well deserved. But like, when you think about Miles Garrett, that's the company that he's about to join.
- [21:59]
Robert Mays
I said it on Sunday. There are three guys that since I started watching this league and since I started covering the league that stand above everybody else's defensive players. It's him, Aaron, Donald and J.J. wat. They're like in their own conversation. And he now joins that group of those guys as the eight. Two of three of the eight players that have ever done this twice.
- [22:15]
Derek Klassen
And I think this season Worley was a reminder of obviously he's been incredible to this point. I'm so excited to see where it ends because he has like 10 more sacks before age 30 than anyone else ever. And his game is going to age well. He's 280 pounds and strong as hell. Long as hell. Like he's.
- [22:30]
Robert Mays
He had the best season of his career, I think this year.
- [22:33]
Derek Klassen
Yes.
- [22:33]
Robert Mays
I think a lot of like the pressure numbers and things like that just because of how much think about the Steelers game. Right. Just anecdotally think about the Steelers game, like how hard teams made it for him to dominate some of these games. So I think when you look at those traditional numbers, they're going to be lacking when you think about all time greatness. But just watching him down to down and what he was as a player this year, I think this might be the best version we've ever seen of Miles Garrett the football player, which is funny.
- [22:59]
Derek Klassen
We said that last year.
- [23:00]
Robert Mays
Yeah. And he was better against the run this year than he's ever been ever been in his entire career. We talk about that like guys run defense numbers. He's up there this year in terms of runs, run stops. And that was never really the thing you would mention about Miles Garrett. But I think you can make a serious argument that this was maybe the best season he's ever had as a run defender, which I think is incredibly impressive and worth noting. All Right, let's take our first quick break and then come back and shout a cup chat about a couple rookies.
- [23:29]
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- [25:40]
Dave Hellman
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- [27:21]
Royal Match Advertiser
All right.
- [27:21]
Robert Mays
Offensive Rookie of the Year. I know we have the same pick so I'm going to start with Dave.
- [27:27]
Dave Hellman
I bet it's a sweep then just cause I know. Well I know Derek but look, so my thing with Offensive Rookie of the year, like there's a lot of guys that deserve consideration but in my opinion a lot of guys that didn't put together an entire campaign of sustained success like Tyler Shuck had a phenomenal second half of the season. I'm more than happy to eat crow about how good he was, but still talking about a guy that didn't take the field till November. Jackson Dart I mean raw numbers alone, 2,700 yards and 24 touchdowns. But you only start 12 games. You missed some time due to injury a little bit. And also like the results weren't always that good. Like the Giants were not a good football team. Emeka Buka not all his fault certainly, but he averaged three catches for 30 yards over the final eight weeks of the season. And then Tyler Warren and Colson Loveland kind of flip flopped when they were good, you know, like you're talking, you're still talking like eight to 10 weeks of sustained success. And in the middle of all that, that Tet, McMillan was a starter day one, played all the way through the season. 17 weeks as a starter, 17 weeks of production. Only thousand yard rookie on the year led all rookies in receiving touchdowns. He was much like jsn. Not as good as jsn, but like he was it for the Carolina offense.
- [28:41]
Robert Mays
Immediately, immediately, immediately, immediately and consistently, unambiguously the most important pass catcher on their.
- [28:47]
Dave Hellman
Team from day one with the exception of the Seattle game, which A Seattle's a much better team and B, he had the flu. He was consistent all season long. He didn't put up a ton of duds and just looked the part of a top 10 pick. There were a lot of guys that had good moments this year, but he was from beginning to end the best offensive rookie.
- [29:06]
Derek Klassen
I couldn't agree more like wire to wire. He was so clearly and immediately the guide for that team. And I think you really see it in like obviously the run game was really good at certain parts of the year, especially for the first like eight or ten weeks or so. But the passing game, it only really moved because they were throwing the ball at Tettaro and McMillan. I want to read you guys the list of over the past decade rookies and their first downs. First down rate per target, the first 14 players. Michael Thomas, T. Higgins, Lad McConkey, Justin Jefferson, Tetaro and McMillan, Jamar Chase. So he's between those two. By the way, the two LSU stars pretty good company. Rashi Rice, Puka Nakua, Jalen Waddle, Ceedee Lamb, Devonta Smith, Smith, Drake London, Amon Ross, St. Brown, Chris Olave. It is all like minimum Pro bowl and a handful of all pros. Like he's one of those guys with not very good quarterback play for a lot of this. Like some of those guys had some good players with them. This was a struggle for Tele McMillan for him to get to a thousand yards, be as efficient as he was. He's an incredible football player.
- [30:07]
Robert Mays
I don't think it's a conversation with falling off the way he did with Howard Warren falling off at the end of the year for reasons that are not his fault. Obviously. I don't even think it's a conversation the quarterbacks last year giving it to Jaden Daniels over Brock Bowers. Fine Jaden Daniels played the entire year. Jaden Daniels was the quarterback of an elite offense. When you look at the numbers, Jane Daniels had a great season this year. If we had given it to one of the quarterbacks over Tedro McMillan, that would be a crime. Like you should have to play most of the season to win these awards. I fully support that. Terror McMillan was the, was the best rookie in terms of this sort of award. The last thing I will say about this, the best offensive rookie in the NFL this year, the best one, not the one who should win offensive rookie of the year is Colson Loveland.
- [30:52]
Derek Klassen
I.
- [30:52]
Robert Mays
He is the best player. I. We will talk about this tomorrow. I went back.
- [30:57]
Dave Hellman
Interesting.
- [30:58]
Robert Mays
I think if you just purely like the best offensive rookie in the NFL this year. I think it's, it is Colson Loveland compared to his position.
- [31:06]
Dave Hellman
I will say this. Cole said, speaking like takes that aged well. We, we brought up Loveland on the mid season show and we were like, oh, we might have to talk about this guy in a few more weeks. Because at that point he'd only played like two good games. He's amazing. And I think I said to y' all on Sunday, like skill players wise, I think he's, he's certainly the best player on the Bears offense. Like just watching him make plays and when they go to him and, and what's on the line and why they target him, can't say enough. I think I'd still probably take McMillan, especially considering the quarterback play that each is getting.
- [31:43]
Robert Mays
I don't think that's, that's a different conversation to me just in terms of like. Because it's positional value and it's things like that. Like it. But I think when you compare him to his peers.
- [31:51]
Dave Hellman
Oh, you just mean among tight ends.
- [31:53]
Robert Mays
Or just like the best player. Like the best player when you compare him to other guys at the position and like the hierarchy in the league. Like the best NFL player right now, I think from the 2025 rookie class is Colston Loveland. Okay.
- [32:06]
Derek Klassen
I actually do think I agree with that. Like if I, if Colson Loveland is the third or fourth best tight end in the league by this point next year, I don't think I'll be shocked. For as much as I love Tedro and McMillan, I would probably be a little surprised if he's that good.
- [32:19]
Robert Mays
I think that's right. And I, I think honestly third or fourth is like he might be better than that.
- [32:24]
Derek Klassen
I don't think he's that crazy.
- [32:25]
Robert Mays
What he does as a Receiver. His, his instincts as a receiver, his feel for the game at 21 years old is wild. The thing that puts it over the top came to this thought it was actually, it's the first play of the Bears game against the Packers. The last time they played they. He goes in motion and kicks out Eden Cooper on the right side and the way he snaps his hips into that block. He is an explosive blocker. Now a lot of the guys who have his receiving talent, just pure skill and ability, do not have his talent or explosiveness as a blocker this early in their careers. Like the combination of everything and how complete of a player player he already is at 21. He's going to be insanely good if he stays healthy. Insanely good.
- [33:11]
Dave Hellman
Now I'm just, I'm digging, I'm looking through the draft class because I'm just trying to think because there are, there are so many good players in this draft class that we're never going to win these sorts of awards, you know. So now I'm just trying to think like, do I think he's better than like Armand Membu? Like, is that I do. Okay. I'm not saying you're wrong. I think I just need more time.
- [33:29]
Robert Mays
Armament is good for a rookie, is just good.
- [33:34]
Dave Hellman
Yeah, he's a phenomenal player and I think he is. We've talked about him plenty, but he's still probably not getting enough credit.
- [33:41]
Robert Mays
That's why I want to play. I just don't think, I don't think we've really dug into like what he is already as a player and actually.
- [33:46]
Derek Klassen
We'Ll say in terms of like moving forward into next year, like debating if you just want this player on your team. I honestly think positional value goes out of the board if you are like the second best guy at your position. Like if you are that level of a difference maker, like it's. I don't think any of the positional stuff really matters.
- [33:59]
Dave Hellman
I, I always think I'm ready for what we're going to talk about on these shows and I'm never, ever right.
- [34:05]
Robert Mays
Get to defensive rookie of the year. This is going to be an interesting one because I went in a direction I didn't necessarily expect after looking at some of the numbers and just digging into it. Derek, why don't you kick this off? Who's your defensive rookie of the year for 2025?
- [34:16]
Derek Klassen
Mine is boring because it's the same player. I came into it with the mid season awards, but to me it's still Carson Schlesinger. And it's for a couple of reasons. 1,78 stops this year, which like next gen stats basically counts as like tackles you make that are negative. EPA plays for the offense and he was 10th in the NFL with those. He had 20 quarterback pressures, two and a half sacks, very good moving downhill which also in the run game was very surprising to me given what he was coming out of college. He's a little bit lighter. I thought he was going to be like Terrell Bernard, like a really good run through player but not necessarily a good guy who was taking back space. I thought he actually did that really well. And then in coverage I thought that he was pretty good this year. I think he's already good at understanding zone awareness and knowing when crossing routes are coming back into his face. He had an awesome interception on Drake May where I still remember May saying like I just forgot he could jump. Which was a really funny. One of my favorite quotes of the season. So I think it's all of that. And then this is a position that so rarely guys come into the league and are.
- [35:11]
Robert Mays
It's a great point. Awesome. It's a great point.
- [35:12]
Derek Klassen
Like usually like even Fred Warner took like two or three years and like really since Roquan Smith we don't get that many guys who like year one are.
- [35:19]
Robert Mays
And even Roquan it was, it was mixed. Yeah, it was mixed early in Roquan's career. It was not like great from day one.
- [35:24]
Derek Klassen
The flashes were incredible. But you still. There were some ups and downs. Whereas I watched Sweatshirt and it's like.
- [35:29]
Robert Mays
The exception was like really from day one.
- [35:33]
Derek Klassen
Exactly. It was 15 years ago.
- [35:34]
Dave Hellman
I was thinking about offensive rookies when we just had the leveling conversation. Carson Schlesinger deserves mention when you're talking about like who's the best football player at his position.
- [35:44]
Derek Klassen
Relative.
- [35:44]
Dave Hellman
Yes, relative to being a rookie. Carson swinger is my pick too. I will hear Abdul Carter. I get it. I know the pressure numbers.
- [35:52]
Robert Mays
That's my, that's my pick. It's that, that's why I went that way. It's just like if you look at it, the production with the sacks is not there. But down to down what he was as a pass rusher, he was 12th in total pressures this year he finished first in the league in both quick pressures and time to pressure per next gen. Abdul Carter did first in the NFL.
- [36:12]
Dave Hellman
Maybe I just spent too much time with Derek now, but I could just, I could hear him in the back of my head going through this where just like there's a linebacker problem in modern football. There aren't enough good ones. Like there aren't enough guys who know how to play all linebacker.
- [36:25]
Robert Mays
It's my favorite part of the argument.
- [36:26]
Dave Hellman
I like that he's eighth in the entire league in tackles and he missed a game. He led all rookies and tackles for loss. He's one of 50 players with double digit tackle for loss and he's one of only two rookies. He's tied for second among all off ball linebackers in tackle for loss, two and a half sacks. He's one of 12 off ball linebackers with multiple interceptions. Did all of that at a rookie at a position that's notoriously hard to figure out in the NFL. At the end of the day, Abdul Carr is awesome and he did exactly what I thought he would do. Like I said, maybe it's, maybe it's like the excitement of seeing that type of linebacker where you watch him and you're like oh, oh that guy, he's awesome. It just that got me over the finish line.
- [37:08]
Robert Mays
There were two awards that we're going to talk about to me that were coin flips. That was like I changed my answer immediately before we started. The defensive rookie of the year was one of them between Abdel Carter and Schlesinger and assistant coach of the year is the other which we'll get to.
- [37:20]
Dave Hellman
Can I say I would like to at least mention Nick Emenwari.
- [37:25]
Robert Mays
I think there are three other guys that I think I would throw out here.
- [37:28]
Dave Hellman
There is, it's, it's more of an existential argument though where like Nick Iman Warri is the big nickel that let Mike McDonald call his defense the way he wanted to. And, and again, if you're talking about like the narrative of the 2025 season that matters so much, like Seattle's defense is this fire breathing monster not purely because of Nick Imanwari, but he was a big part of unlocking that and helping them play the way that they wanted to. Ultimately I thought Swessinger's performance was just that good that I, that I gave him the nod.
- [38:00]
Derek Klassen
I did think about em and worry for that reason because he's like, he's an imperfect player still and his lows were lower than these other two. But he is kind of the skeleton key for the way that this thing unlocked. And so I totally would have got, if somebody went that way. One of the other ones, and this might be one of the ones you were mentioning. Malachi Starks was really, really good this season.
- [38:17]
Robert Mays
I had him up There Malachi Starks and I think Xavier Watts was really good for the Falcons and James Pierce had ten and a half sacks for the Falcons as a rookie down to down. Like overall I don't think he played enough to get this. He had like 40 pressures on the year and he is an objectively bad run defender at this point and so I don't think he should be defensive rookie of the year but he deserves mention. The guys who have had double digit sacks as rookies, it's a very small list of players.
- [38:41]
Dave Hellman
We Dane and I did his all rookie team yesterday on building the beast and going through it I was like holy crap, there were a lot of really fun rookies this year. Like it was for not being this super sexy draft last year. Like a whole hell of a lot of really fun early contributors can came out of it.
- [38:59]
Robert Mays
Let's get to our next one here. First time we've done this on a year end awards podcast Protector of the year. Dave, why don't you kick us off here?
- [39:07]
Dave Hellman
I don't want to. This gave me highs.
- [39:09]
Robert Mays
This is a tough one.
- [39:10]
Dave Hellman
This gave me highs. It's a tough one because so here's my thing. It like and it wouldn't be lazy. He's an amazing player. But it, it would have just been easy to give it to Lane Johnson for all that he's done and his role in the offensive line community in the NFL and the fact that he's going to be a Hall of Famer and he's incred even at this advanced stage of his career.
- [39:32]
Derek Klassen
And we saw what they looked like.
- [39:33]
Dave Hellman
When they didn't have him with the injury though. It just, it's hard and anticlimactic and so then I, you get stuck between a bunch of other options. And again it goes back to I know that there are some really incredible guys. I think people are going to bring up Panay Sewell and that is completely fair. People are going to bring up Aaron Brewer in Miami and that is wonderful. And I keep saying it like wins don't necessarily matter, but I'm thinking about like the story of the season and how did we get here and what matters. And I landed on the fact that the Denver Broncos are the number one seed in the afc. We don't really like their quarterback that much. What enabled Bo Nicks to play well enough to lead the Denver Broncos to the number one seed in the afc. And you look at it and you say Garrett Bowles is one of eight offensive tackles in the NFL who played 4, 400 or more pass blocking slat snaps and allowed fewer than 20 pressures. He's the only one of those eight who played all 17 games and the only one who didn't allow a sack. He's one of three offensive tackles to play 80% or more of his team's pass blocking snaps and not surrender or sack. And at the end of the day, when we're when it's razor thin, I think it matters that he was one of the anchors of an offensive line that helped the Denver Broncos be the best team in the afc. So I picked Garrett Bowles.
- [40:55]
Robert Mays
Garrett Bowles is a very good choice. I think there are a lot of guys worth mentioning. You talked about a couple of them. Based on what Derek says, we'll hit some of the rest. But Derek, where did you end with protector of the year?
- [41:04]
Derek Klassen
I honestly landed with what feels like the laziest one in Penul. That was also my he's still incredible. And I know the Lions obviously the offensive infrastructure overall fell a little bit, but according to Sports Info Solutions, among tackles he had the second lowest blown block rate in pass protection, only behind Andrew Thomas, who also worth mentioning for.
- [41:21]
Robert Mays
This week, if Andrew Thomas hadn't missed time, he would absolutely be in the combination.
- [41:24]
Derek Klassen
He was 100% be up here. So you you have Sewell doing that as a pass protector and he's still very, very good. And then as a run blocker again, I know down to down the line's run game wasn't as good, but so many of their pop runs. Sure, it's because Gibbs can erase angles and all that, but it's because Penne Sewell can clear one or two guys completely out of like the Giants run on the touchdown in overtime. He just immediately flies to the second level and clears the guy out of the space. And Gibbs is able to take off like he does that all the time. He's a unique weapon on the goal line. Like it is still to me like until proven otherwise. And so long as Lane Johnson is missing games like it's it's still Penne Seul.
- [42:00]
Robert Mays
That's pretty much where I did it as well.
- [42:01]
Derek Klassen
I did like the Bulls. The fact the Bulls argument of like why does this offense work? It's because the offensive line protects the quarterback incredibly well.
- [42:09]
Dave Hellman
Quinn Minors and Garrett Bowles are an enormous piece of why the Broncos are as good as they are, and it feels like they get lost in the shuffle a lot.
- [42:18]
Robert Mays
I think that offensive line ecosystem that they've created there is incredibly impressive. Like how much Mike McGlinchey has improved in pass protection. Like it's just like that. Like it.
- [42:27]
Dave Hellman
I watched, I watched the Broncos Texans game back this morning and I was mainly watching Bulls and he was just handling Daniel Hunter in a way that you shouldn't be able to. But then you look over and you're like Mike Mclin. You're, you're doing the thing too, man. Like it's, it is a really good offensive line they've had.
- [42:44]
Robert Mays
Their left guard has been hurt for a good chunk of the year. We haven't even noticed that. And they. Lloyd Cushionberry left in free agency two years ago. Luke Wattenberg steps in that we don't really, they don't really miss a beat. Like their ability to get the best out of players at that position since Zach Stref has gotten has been incredibly impressive and Bowles is a good reflection of that.
- [43:01]
Dave Hellman
I will say this is a tough choice. And like if the voters just decided to make it a Trent Williams lifetime achievement thing because we have a conversation. He's had a very good year. Not what you associate Trent Williams with, but he's still had a very good year. If he won it A, because he's been good and B, because he's going to the hall of Fame and this is the first time we're doing this award, I wouldn't be mad at that either.
- [43:25]
Robert Mays
He was on my short list. Laramie Tunsil was incredible in pass protection this year. He gave up six quick pressures on the season per next gen stats. Andrew. Andrew Thomas, we mentioned Aaron Brewer. Absolutely. Like just the way that they weaponized Aaron Brewer in the run game this year in Miami for a run game that was so much better than it had any right to be. Like what he's doing in the run game at center. Other than peak Jason Kelce over the last five years, there are not a lot of players being asked to do more for their team in the run game specifically than Aaron Brewer was for the Dolphins this year. I landed on Sewell because he's still an elite pass protector. 6.3% one on one quick pressure rate this year, which was six or excuse me, eighth among all tackles. And he's the best run blocking tackle in the league. Him and Trent Williams. And so when you combine those two things, like I think in a world where Lane Johnson missed this chunk of time, you can make a serious case that Penny sue was the best offensive lineman in the league.
- [44:18]
Dave Hellman
I think that's. And it reminds me of what I said about Puka and JSN where I'm like I would take Penne Sewell over Garrett Bowles if I were drafting these players. But you think about what happened this season and where we are heading into the playoffs. It's not everything, but I do think that matters if the margins are close.
- [44:35]
Robert Mays
Let's get to our next one here. This one is again, it was a coin flip for me. I think you can go a bunch of different directions. Assistant coach of the year. Derek, why don't you kick us off here? Who is your assistant coach of the year in 2024?
- [44:48]
Derek Klassen
This might be me just taking my preseason pick, but I. I had Vance Joseph because in my mind, the three best defenses in the league this year were Houston, Seattle and Denver. The other two have head coaches who are calling the plays and really doing a lot of their work for the defense.
- [45:04]
Robert Mays
That's Matt Burke calls the plays in Houston. That is worth mentioning.
- [45:08]
Derek Klassen
Yes, that is. Still feels like a lot of it to D. It still feels like d' Amico's defense.
- [45:12]
Robert Mays
When it, when you're deep, when your head coach is a defensive guy and he was the play caller previously, it muddies the water a little because there.
- [45:19]
Derek Klassen
Have been times like that with the Andy Reid offense where it's like different guys are calling plays, but like it still feels like Andy Reid's offense.
- [45:25]
Robert Mays
Yes. And also with the Texans specifically, and I'm sure we'll talk about this for a preview. The Texans don't do anything on defense.
- [45:32]
Derek Klassen
That's the other thing. Which, like, yeah, I, I love them for it, but like, it's a player's defense.
- [45:38]
Robert Mays
Obviously, it's discounting like, what goes into the reason the coaching points are way. And like I said, I think I love Matt Burke. I think he's done a really good job. I think d' Ameco has done a really good job, but it's a different consideration than a lot of the other defensive coaching jobs that we're digging into this season.
- [45:55]
Derek Klassen
Yeah, exactly. So when I watch the Broncos, like, I think part of it with the Broncos is that they actually have done more than you ascribe to this defense.
- [46:02]
Robert Mays
Like, they are not like this lineup and play man coverage defense in the way that people think they're not.
- [46:07]
Derek Klassen
They're really good when they do it and they're still like sixth in the league in man coverage. But it's not like they're fighting with Jim Schwartz at one or two where they're like running it 45% of the. Or anything like that. They really are a little bit more of his own defense. They bring a lot of really interesting pressures. I think the way that they can manipulate the back is good. They use their linebackers in terms of. Those guys, to me, are not great, pure coverage guys, but they do a good job of popping them off the line of scrimmage in ways that are going to make them useful. And so I think Vance Joseph has done a really, really good job of getting the most out of a really good team. And like, I know they have Patrick Shirtan and I know the front is great, but again, the linebackers can be up and down in coverage and a lot of their DBs, even just outside of Patrick Zertan, like, you can get them in coverage sometimes. Like, it's. The fact that they've still been that good of a past defense is. It's pretty incredible to me.
- [46:52]
Robert Mays
He was on my short list. I have six defensive coordinators that I think you could make a real case for.
- [46:59]
Dave Hellman
It's amazing how the offensive candidates kind of dropped off as the season.
- [47:05]
Robert Mays
Well, there's just all the best offenses in the league and a good majority of the best coordinated and constructed offenses in the league. It's offensive calling or it's play calling. Offensive head coaches.
- [47:14]
Derek Klassen
Yeah.
- [47:14]
Dave Hellman
And we talked about Seattle's offense downturning over the.
- [47:18]
Robert Mays
I think Kubiak deserves mention in the season.
- [47:20]
Dave Hellman
He deserves mention, but I didn't pick him to win.
- [47:23]
Robert Mays
I think there are two. There are two different things when it comes to offensive coaching, in my opinion. There's plan and there's execution. What is your identity as an offense and how do all the pieces fit together structurally? How are you trying to dictate the game based on that structure? I think the Seahawks have done an incredible job in that. Like, we're going to get you in heavy bodies. We're going to understand even like that chunk run that Kenneth Walker had against the Niners last week where they're in a nub look and they get him one on one with the corner. Like, they do things structurally that put their players in really good positions. And I think Kubak has done a great job. Execution is play calling. Feel sequencing. I think he's done a good job with that. Like, I think he's been excellent this year on both fronts. I don't think he's been as good as the defensive guys. And the other offensive guy that I would mention that I think has done a really, really good job is Josh McDaniels. I don't think he's done a good enough job to win this award because his quarterback is One of the two candidates for MVP and I think has gotten them out of a lot of jams as the season has gone.
- [48:22]
Derek Klassen
It's a little bit hard to like give both of them equal credit in that sense.
- [48:25]
Robert Mays
I think McDaniels has done a very good job.
- [48:26]
Derek Klassen
I think like good hire, but we don't have to necessarily put him in.
- [48:29]
Robert Mays
If I'm going to reward someone in that group, it's probably going to be Drake May. So the defensive guys I had were Vance Joseph, Chris Shula, Burke, Brian Flores. I had seven defensive guys and then my top three. But before I do that, I want to know who won for you.
- [48:44]
Dave Hellman
So I thought about Vance Joseph and I actually, I thought about Vic Fangio really hard.
- [48:49]
Robert Mays
Especially consider number three for me, considering.
- [48:51]
Dave Hellman
Everything Philly's defense has done to keep them close to having a shot to, to repeat in a year where they.
- [48:57]
Robert Mays
Turn over all that personnel, where they have like serious questions at the outside cornerback spot. Like this is. This is. It's a talented unit. It's not like a overwhelmingly talented unit the way that it was last year.
- [49:08]
Dave Hellman
I still didn't choose him and I was looking through this and it's most of the same names that you just said. And I landed on the guy who basically went from worst to first with mostly the same cast of characters that his team had last year. And that would be Jags DC Anthony Campanelli.
- [49:28]
Robert Mays
That is also my pick.
- [49:29]
Dave Hellman
Let's go here. Here.
- [49:31]
Derek Klassen
Weird. Where I'm not the Jaguar.
- [49:32]
Dave Hellman
I was. I was really expecting you to be the Jags guy. Check this.
- [49:35]
Robert Mays
I'm glad we, I'm glad this happened. I, I'm. I'm surprised.
- [49:38]
Dave Hellman
Eight of the Jaguars top 10 leaders in defensive snaps this year and 10 of their top 50 were on the team last year. Eric Murray and Jordan Lewis have been great signings and Andrew Wingard's healthier this year. Those that. That's worth mentioning.
- [49:54]
Royal Match Advertiser
That's it.
- [49:54]
Dave Hellman
That's it.
- [49:55]
Robert Mays
Travis Hunter didn't play.
- [49:56]
Dave Hellman
It's the same guys. And yet this year the Jags jumped from 31st in defensive DVOA to 6th. They jumped from 28th in defensive success rate and 31st in EPA per play to 10th in defensive success rate and 3rd in EPA per play play. They were dead last in takeaways last year with nine and they had 31 this year. Their jump in interceptions went from six to 22. It's the largest single season jump from last year in the league. Them and the Bears had double digit improvement in getting interceptions. They allowed a 10.8% explosive play rate which was third best in the league along with Seattle, tied for third best in the league. Excuse me, Seattle, Denver and Green Bay, the only defenses that were as good at limiting explosives as Jacksonville. And then the really important one, they jumped from 28th and scoring defense to 8th. They did all of that with basically the same guys like middle of the road nickel and safety signings typically aren't enough to reverse something like that.
- [51:04]
Robert Mays
Hurt now.
- [51:05]
Dave Hellman
Yeah. And, and and he missed time during the course of the year as well. And I believe Eric Murray did too like to to do this with basically the same stuff that was unplayable last year is incredible.
- [51:17]
Robert Mays
I'm 100% with you. I'm glad you mentioned a lot of like the personnel things because it absolutely plays into it with me. Derek and I were talking before we started recording because I told him that was my choice. And if you're who did the most with the least, I think that he has a very strong argument for that. The what they're getting out of Monteric Brown right now, Antonio Johnson right now, Jerrion Jones coming in because Jordan Lewis is hurt. It is seriously so impressive. And the reason that and by the way my runner up and again this is a coin flip for me was Jesse Minter who I want to talk about in a second. Jesse Minter is real really good at his job. But the, the thing that sets it apart For Camp and UA to me they're fifth and weighted defensive DVOA. They're 24th in pressure rate when bringing 4. 24th. You know how hard that is. You know how hard it is to.
- [52:03]
Dave Hellman
Especially when you have good talented edges like the Jags do. They're Trayvon Walker missed some time this.
- [52:09]
Robert Mays
Year and Trayvon Walker is not a pure pass rush. Trayvon Walker is a very good useful football player. They do not have an elite pass rush or even a good pass rush rush. All these other teams that we're talking about, Vance Joseph, Chris Shula, Vic Fangio, they have good players up front. They have like very good to elite four man pass rushes. The Seahawks are like that. The Jags aren't that. And they have built a borderline top five defense without that which is incredibly difficult to do. And we've talked or kind of danced around it all year of how they've done that. When you watch them just play play very generic zone coverages. We're, we're the way where Camp Nela comes from similar to what the packers done over the last couple years. A lot of two high structure, and we're just going to rotate down and we're going to play some cover three. When you watch them do that, they're extremely good at it. Like the way that the coaching points are, the way they squeeze things in zone coverage. So the bones and the nuts and bolts of it are excellent. And then you watch what they're doing when things get a little bit funky. And I just think that the layers he's built into the defense, the numbers that really jump out to me are what they do when they blitz. So they blitz at like a 30% rate, which is about league average a little bit more. But what they're doing behind it, they essentially. There are only five teams in the or seven teams in the NFL I think with a zone blitz rate of 45 to 55%. So you're essentially split man zone. When you blitz, there are only seven of them. Those, they're almost dead even. When you look at the coverages they play while blitzing, it's almost equal, like 25 to 30% cover one, cover three and two high with like 12 and a half percent cover zero built in there. And they'll use the same pressures with different coverages behind it. Like, it's just, it's such a multifaceted thing and they need to generate and manufacture some of that because the format pass rush isn't good. And so to me, the details, the complexity combined with how good it is, is when it's simple, quote unquote, it's. It's incredible. Like, he has done a really, really, really good job this year.
- [54:14]
Derek Klassen
And they've done a good job of like, when they drop their ends, they actually do a good job of like making sure they're getting hands on guys. And guys know that like, okay, if I drop off, because sometimes teams will like drop an end and they're kind of just like head spinning. They don't really know where they're supposed to be. There was a play against Denver where Josh Hines Allen actually drops off the field kind of into the left flat, and he immediately whips around and like smacks the tight end like two or three yards short of the six. I'm like, man, if you, if you're defensive end, who's your best pass rusher can make coverage plays like that, clearly the coaching is good. And I would say the one part of this that didn't get mentioned that, like, if I'm going to make the case for Anthony Campanile, Devin Lloyd being a good player now, is I meant.
- [54:49]
Dave Hellman
To Bring that up.
- [54:50]
Robert Mays
Every single guy on the defense is the best version of himself. And that means Devin Lloyd is playing at the level that Devin Lloyd is playing at.
- [54:56]
Derek Klassen
And it's, it's not just that he's better. The want to, it's a lot higher. He was a player that I think in previous seasons he, you saw flashes in coverage. He could kind of run a little bit outside of the perimeter and stuff that like, like that was never a guy who wanted to come down and like hit a guard, hit a lead, block, any of that. He will take back space now and it's actually really impressive to watch that he's gone from that. Given what he was the first few years of his career.
- [55:17]
Robert Mays
It's been remarkable. I again wanted to mention, it's a coin flip for me. Jesse Minter has done an incredible job. The Chargers are 31st in spending on defense.
- [55:28]
Derek Klassen
31St, which I, I complained a lot about going into the season.
- [55:32]
Dave Hellman
I was going to say that sounds right with how I know they handled their off season.
- [55:34]
Robert Mays
The Rams are 32nd but the Rams are more talented than the Charger.
- [55:38]
Dave Hellman
The Rams have handled on like a.
- [55:39]
Derek Klassen
Ridiculous amount of picks immediately. Exactly.
- [55:41]
Robert Mays
And so. But when you look at what Jesse Minter has done and you said something in the off season that I think people took the wrong way when you said that. Watching Jesse Minter last year, it was like watching a first year defensive coordinator and like with the how kind of.
- [55:56]
Derek Klassen
Simple and it was, all they did when they pressured was three deep, three under fire zones. That was it. And it's like I get it, like.
- [56:02]
Robert Mays
You want building a foundation of like what they wanted the defense to be. And I think what has been so cool this year is watching them build on top of that on early downs they're still doing a lot of the same stuff they used to do. They're. They have these big ass defensive tackles where it's Caldwell Tire Tart. They've done a great job of finding the right personnel to be good enough against the run in these super light bodies and play all this shell and just kind of almost entice offenses to play the way they want to there. We're going to try to run the ball downhill on you. That's what we're going to do. And that is the right way to attack the shot Chargers. But they're good enough at stopping it that by building your entire game plan around that you're playing into their hands the way they want you to. And so on early downs they're doing all that stuff that they used to and it's it they're very good at again kind of coaxing the game out of opposing offenses that they want when they get into third down. Now the layers to his third down plan, they don't blitz a lot but they don't. They also don't bring four guys that are just lined up like that. The amount of the COVID zero percentage this year per next gen is like the same as it was last year for the Chargers but the variations off of it is wild. The way that they're bringing a non traditional for who they're dropping out the watching them play against scrambling quarterbacks and how they accounted for those scrambling quarterbacks when they played. Go watch the third down snaps for the Chargers against Eagles and watch the the layers of the game plan from Jesse Minter. Like he is an exceptional defensive football coach and so for me that's the reason that him and Campanile were 12 just because we talk about doing more with less and I think there have been phenomenal defensive coaching performances all over the league. Those guys do not have as much talent as some of these other teams have and their results have been akin to a lot of the other great.
- [57:55]
Derek Klassen
Defenses in yeah Jesse Mentor is incredibly I wanted him to show a little bit more iteration especially on the back end and some of their coverage is mixing it up and he absolutely did. And also in terms of like getting the best out of some of your players. Tuli tui Polotu had 13 sacks this.
- [58:10]
Robert Mays
Year which like he's been huge for them.
- [58:12]
Derek Klassen
I thought he would be I thought he was like a nice if he's your number three maybe like a low end too you're pretty happy. He's he might be better than that. Like he he's been really good for them.
- [58:20]
Dave Hellman
I know the Pro Bowls kind of diminished in value but I was surprised and happy to see him make the Pro bowl because Chargers players sometimes get snubbed in those sorts of situations but.
- [58:31]
Robert Mays
Well deserved the the tiebreaker for me that eventually made me choose Campanile over Jesse Minter is that even if guys like Khalil Mack have been banged up at some points over the year, for the most part Jesse Minter is working with the deck he thought he would be going into the year. Camp Vanilla is not like not having Travis Hunter like it just it's a different set of players even than I think they thought it would be and they still have been like a borderline.
- [58:53]
Derek Klassen
Top five and Minster got to build from year like Campanile this is all like we're he had to figure this out on the fly.
- [58:58]
Robert Mays
All right, we got three more. We're going to take our last quick break and then come back and chat a little Executive of the Year it's that time of year again for Texas. We all know the stress of the old way of filing. You send your documents off and then absolute radio silence. You're stuck refreshing your inbox and sending awkward just checking in text, wondering if they've even started. But with TurboTax Expert full service I know my TurboTax Expert takes taxes fully off my plate and updates me every step of the way so I don't have to worry. That way I can get back to the things that matter to me, like going on vacation in the spring or enjoying the NFL off season. So stop chasing updates. It's time to switch to the modern tax filing Solution with Intuit TurboTax. The best part you can get Experts progress right your phone while you go about your day. So go for a run or grab a coffee. You'll know your dedicated expert is handling it, looking for every last deduction to get you the best possible outcome and every dollar you deserve. File with confidence. Visit turbotax.com, only available with TurboTax Full Service Experts real time updates only in iOS mobile app.
- [60:09]
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- [61:13]
Robert Mays
All right, Executive of the Year Year this is a tough one, but not for normal reasons. For me, we can dig into why, like I the reason I almost didn't give it to my winner isn't because of the job he did. It's just because of the way I normally hand out these awards. But I'm curious where you went with this.
- [61:31]
Dave Hellman
This is one of the easiest ones that I did and like I tried to cast a wide net and think about as many angles as possible for a lot of these. But this is one where I. I'll be honest, I didn't consider that many other avenues other than just saying congrat John. John Schneider of the Seattle Seahawks.
- [61:50]
Robert Mays
Did you also pick John Schneider? So did I. The only reason that I even had a slight bit of pause is because Mike McDonald is my coach of the year and giving it to both of them is hard.
- [62:01]
Dave Hellman
I could see, I could see why you feel that way.
- [62:03]
Derek Klassen
But the reason I'm willing to separate it is the, the. The stuff on that I can still give Schneider the award without even really giving him that much credit for the signings or drafts on defense like them doing what they did with the offense and making the bet where, where I.
- [62:18]
Dave Hellman
That's. That is a phenomenal point that you could give Schneider this award without even factoring like take, take em and worry off the board. You could even take. Even though this like signings are front office things. But you could take the Tank Lawrence signing off the board if it was just the plan to trade Gino and replace him with Darnold and move on from DK and like all of that stuff, everything about retooling the offense and being right about it would be enough for me. And then if you just give him a little bit of the credit for the defensive side of equation, I think it's a no brainer for me.
- [62:52]
Robert Mays
I think it's a combination of things. There's enough stuff that happened on the offense that pushes it over the top for me. But also there's a difference between player acquisition and proper schematic deployment. Right. And like Mike McDonald is doing an incredible job with the players. But to me, I think you do need the Emin worry thing in order for. To get this over the top in my opinion because of how he did it.
- [63:13]
Dave Hellman
So I had forgotten this. Do you remember this?
- [63:15]
Derek Klassen
No, I do not remember this.
- [63:16]
Dave Hellman
Eminwari was picked with a after a trade up using the pick that DK Metcalf netted them. They got picked 52 in the DK trade from the Steelers and they traded up with the Titans to pick Nick him and worry. So when I, when I saw that and remembered that's what happened, I was like, oh this is, this is over. There's no reason to even look at what other teams did.
- [63:38]
Robert Mays
They traded a third round pick to do it, but they still had a third round pick because they got one in the Geno.
- [63:43]
Derek Klassen
Yeah.
- [63:43]
Robert Mays
And so that was always the argument. And we don't have to do the Gino thing again. I part of me is always. Is going to be always sad that we're not going to remember how good Gino was over his last couple of years in Seattle because of how good the team is now and how bad Geno was this season.
- [63:56]
Dave Hellman
Okay. You're just writing off Gino's chapter in Minneapolis. Like I calm down.
- [64:01]
Robert Mays
I'd still take a dice roll on Gino, believe me on that. I think that. But the argument for why this could always work out was if it was multifaceted. One, you're getting younger. Two, if the contract's going to be the same and you're getting a third round pick for Gino and you don't have to give up any capital for Sam, that was a very good argument as to why this was still worth it. And I also always, from the first moment I said last season they should trade DK Metcalf. Like I always wanted them to do that. And so all of those moves and the way that it all kind of came together, he deserves a ton of credit for that Gray zable in the first round. This is a really small one, but them signing Josh Jones and free agency, I like that at the time because I just think that too many teams are not urgent enough with making sure they have the right level of tackle depth. Charles Cross hasn't played in school high.
- [64:54]
Derek Klassen
Many weeks and Abe Lucas has hurt all the time.
- [64:56]
Robert Mays
Yeah, he's been healthy this year.
- [64:58]
Derek Klassen
Right. But I mean like generally he's been a guy who's been struggling.
- [65:02]
Dave Hellman
Missed at least two.
- [65:04]
Robert Mays
I think more than that.
- [65:05]
Dave Hellman
Yeah.
- [65:05]
Robert Mays
And we. How much have we really talked about it? Because Josh Jones is a. Is a decent swing tackle. And so I think there's so many different things that John Schneider did. And again, I think for me it's hard. Like last year, for example. I'm not given. Or maybe it was two years ago. I'm not giving Nick Sirianni coach of the year and Howie Roseman executive of the year at the same time. Like that's not happening. But with the Seahawks, specifically because of what Mike McDonald is adding to the defensive side play in and play out combined with so many other things that I think are his purview. Compare compared to the player acquisition purview. That's why I'm comfortable doing both from the same team in a way I don't think I typically so let's do coach of the year then. I had Mike McDonald.
- [65:49]
Derek Klassen
I also had Mike McDonald and here's, here's. It kind of sells itself. I mean, they're the one seed, the defense is incredible, but by default I.
- [65:56]
Robert Mays
Don'T think it sells itself. I think that's more of a controversial thought than most people would.
- [65:59]
Derek Klassen
Well, that's because we're so used to being like, oh, who is the team who was dog shit, who's decent now? And I don't think we need to do that with the sell for Mike McDonald is that he calls the plays on defense. By DVOA this is, this team is better than the Legion of of Boom. And I think you could make a very strong case that the Legion of Boom had four players who were better than anyone Seattle has right now. The two safeties, Richard Sherman and Bobby Wagner. Better than all of the players at the Seahawks. And I know they have some good players. Like Witherspoon is great. Leonard Williams is really good.
- [66:28]
Dave Hellman
They have really good players.
- [66:29]
Derek Klassen
They have a lot of very good.
- [66:30]
Dave Hellman
Maybe not all, but they don't have.
- [66:32]
Derek Klassen
Like the field tilters that the Legion of Boom it felt like they had. And so for him to bring a unit like that and coach them all up so well, have such a clear vision for all these guys and make a them not holding a suffocating defense against the middling and whatever offense is like to give, especially in that first game, like Sean McVeigh and the Rams trouble to give the Niners.
- [66:53]
Robert Mays
They had one bad game. It was on a short week.
- [66:56]
Derek Klassen
Yeah, exactly. Like they just I what they've done this year from top to bottom has been incredible. And you've seen in season development from some of these guys. Nick Emmanue has been better. Ty Okada has been better than he was in like week four and five. Drake Thomas has really come along this year. Like even the young guys have really given them something that I just, it's, it's been phenomenal to watch.
- [67:15]
Robert Mays
He has built a historically good, perfect modern defense and he is the person at the center of that. It's. He deserves an unbelievable amount of credit for that. And when we think about him compared to Mike Vrabel, Liam Cohen, all that stuff, Ben Johnson, even, I think people are going to look at how bad those teams were last year and then try to project how much the coaches mattered in changing that. The Bears, the Patriots and the Seahawks had the same preseason over under the same. It was all eight and a half.
- [67:46]
Dave Hellman
That's wild.
- [67:47]
Robert Mays
And the Seahawks are one of the best teams in the history of DVOA and the one seed in a much, much tougher conference in the best division in football. So the total team success, what his side of the ball has done overall, the fact that the special teams is the best is one of the best in the world.
- [68:04]
Derek Klassen
Another great show.
- [68:05]
Robert Mays
Complete. They're just complete from top to bottom. That is also the it's the purview of a defensive head coordinat and a head coach combined. You can make an argument that he's been the best at both of those things. Him deciding to move on from Ryan Grubb after last year and hiring Clint Kubiak is a game changing type of decision that I think he deserves a ton of credit for as well. And so I just think for me, every single, every single bit of that, that's why Mike McDonald is the winner. Even though I think there are guys who are absolutely deserving just under that. We could talk about them in a second.
- [68:39]
Dave Hellman
I'm gonna. I will go down on this ship. I will stand on this island. I don't expect this to happen. And Vrabel deserves mention. Ben Johnson deserves mention. If I was betting on it, I would bet on Mike McDonald to win. That's everything y' all just said. Plus the fact that he's the head coach of a of a one seed that had low preseason expectations. The other 13 teams in this year's NFL play playoffs averaged 85 snaps from their QB2 this year. The Houston Texans and the Green Bay Pack and Packers leaned on their backup quarterbacks more than everybody else. But Malik Willis and Davis Mills combined to play fewer snaps than Mac Jones did for the San Francisco 49ers. And that is just the tip of the iceberg of the bullshit that Kyle Shanahan had to wade through in this 2025 season. There are 11 teams in the league right now with or more in average per year salary on their reserve lists and unavailable to them. Nine of those 11 teams are a combined 46 and 1 oh7. One of those is the packers, who were locked into the seventh seed two weeks ahead of time and relative to expectation, disappointed. The last one is San Francisco, who just finished 12 and 5 and was a couple of plays away from being the 1 seed in the NFC.
- [70:02]
Robert Mays
How much of that is a on defense? A defense that is actively bad.
- [70:06]
Dave Hellman
Your two best players at the very least.
- [70:08]
Robert Mays
But. But like how much of I don't have the value. I don't have defense.
- [70:11]
Dave Hellman
I don't have the breakdown between offense and defense.
- [70:13]
Robert Mays
That, that to me is like, I, Kyle Shanahan absolutely should be on the short list.
- [70:17]
Dave Hellman
I, I, do you not think I, I have their, I have their snaps pulled up in front of me. Fred Warner played 30% of the year and Nick Bosa came in at like 11% of the year. Like, you're field tilting players that could have turned this into a competent defense missed basically the entire season.
- [70:37]
Robert Mays
I'll be clear. I'm not, I'm not sure changing them from the defense being bad. I don't think it's their fault that the defense is bad. I'm just saying that a lot of the value they've lost is not the reason that the team is good. I would argue they haven't overcome that to make the team what it is. George. That's my argument.
- [70:53]
Derek Klassen
George.
- [70:53]
Dave Hellman
George Kittle got hurt in the season opener and missed five weeks. This is his lowest snapshare since 2020 20. Brandon Iuk, we talked forever about, like, when they get Brandon Iuk back, he is gone.
- [71:05]
Robert Mays
That's. Yeah, he's the player they've missed.
- [71:06]
Dave Hellman
He is absolutely gone. Ricky officially missed half of the season. Trent Williams missed two games, including the decider. And look, I get it. That's football. I'm not making excuses for the Niners, but Trent Williams missed the game that could have potentially given them the week off in the playoff. Oh, by the way, they lost Tatum Bethune during that game. And D winners is questionable for the trip to Philadelphia. It just keeps coming with these guys. They've been patching this thing together with duct tape all year, including on the offensive side of the ball. And San Francisco finished second in offensive DVOA, which is the second best number of Kyle Shanahan's entire tenure, only trailing 2023 when they were the official. They were second in the league in DVOA, second in offensive success rate, seventh in EPA per play, 10th in scoring. And on the defensive side of the ball, I'll point out as well, he got Robert Sala back into the fold, which as bad as San Francisco's defense has been, Robert Sala helped them achieve.
- [72:08]
Robert Mays
A competency better than it should be.
- [72:10]
Dave Hellman
Yes, exactly.
- [72:11]
Derek Klassen
And I do think the Kyle Shanahan thing is impressive in the sense that they can't run the ball very well because the offensive line is just not good. And you can say, oh, maybe that's. It's not Kyle's fault. Like the offensive line is not put together very well.
- [72:21]
Robert Mays
Partially Kyle's fault.
- [72:22]
Derek Klassen
I, I don't know. I.
- [72:23]
Robert Mays
You don't think Kyle's picking the offensive lineman? Oh, okay.
- [72:26]
Derek Klassen
In that sense, I guess. But like the, the talent right now is not very good.
- [72:29]
Robert Mays
Yeah, that, that, I mean, I guess.
- [72:33]
Dave Hellman
That could be like coming home to.
- [72:35]
Derek Klassen
Roost for sure, say like over multiple years. That is his fault. But I, I just mean like it's the offensive line.
- [72:39]
Robert Mays
He's made a conscious choice for what the office, not a team issue.
- [72:42]
Derek Klassen
When I look at it, the run game this year. And then also teams know they have to throw I would like because they're down. Like the defense is giving up 30, 30 points a game.
- [72:49]
Dave Hellman
An argument that I've heard that has annoyed me over the last couple of weeks too. And look, I get Seattle beat them and got the one seed. So who cares Good for the Seahawks if Mike McDonald wins this award like I expect him to. It's well deserved. But people will point out the Niners played a fourth place schedule and the Seahawks played a second place schedule. That sounds really cool. It's three games and this is what the three games were. The Niners played the Browns, Giants, two bottom feeders. The Seahawks played the Commanders and the Vikings with Max Brosmer. I'd say that's pretty similar. And then the nine beat the Bears and the Seahawks beat the Steelers. Like that's the difference in what you're talking about between these two teams. The schedules were not all that different. And for Kyle Shanahan to have this MASH unit half dozen plays away from being the NFC one seed is incredible and I won't let it go. I don't care if I'm the only one that feels that way.
- [73:42]
Robert Mays
I don't.
- [73:43]
Dave Hellman
I won't let it go.
- [73:43]
Robert Mays
I think everything that you said is totally well founded. He's done an amazing job this year. I think it's probably whether this should be the answer answer or not. Mike McDonald's group snuffed out Kyle Shanahan's number two offense by DVOA. That might be it. That might be enough.
- [73:59]
Derek Klassen
If they scored like 20 points in that game and one like we might be talking more about that if it.
- [74:04]
Dave Hellman
Comes down to that. And that's like I said, if Mike McDonald wins this award, I'm not going to be mad about it. And they did win that game in San Francisco. I get it. But over the totality of the year, I gave up on the Niners as a viable thing on like October 5th and they were playing for the 1 seed on January 3rd or whatever it was. It's. It's incredible.
- [74:25]
Robert Mays
I just want to be very clear. You never have to try to convince me of what Kyle.
- [74:29]
Derek Klassen
Kyle Shannon is good. Yeah.
- [74:31]
Robert Mays
That never has to happen.
- [74:32]
Dave Hellman
He, this year proved to me that he is like, he's just inevitable. He is personnel proof. And I was like, I was a purdy doubter and maybe a Niners doubter for a while because I was like, okay, let's see you without nine also pros. And the result was still pretty damn good, all things considered.
- [74:51]
Robert Mays
I honestly think you could make an argument that what he did last year was more impressive without McCaffrey and with how banged up they were on offense. I don't. I, It's. I don't. I'm not trying to make that argument now. But like, what I'm saying is what Kyle Shanahan has done on the offensive side of the ball for the last two seasons has been incredibly impressive. And that was after he had a historically good offense in 2023.
- [75:12]
Dave Hellman
We were talking about it when we. We did a live show about John Harbaugh leaving Baltimore and like Sean McVeigh and Kyle Shanahan, like, if I was. If you're talking about coaches where you might opt to keep them over an all pro caliber quarterback, that. That's the whole list right there. And like a year like this from Kyle Shanahan just solidifies that for me.
- [75:34]
Robert Mays
The other guy that I think if I had to do like a top three. And I think Vrabel has done a good job, but their schedule is horrendous.
- [75:40]
Dave Hellman
Yeah.
- [75:41]
Robert Mays
And I. He has done an objectively good job. Their schedule is very, very bad. And I think that should play into it.
- [75:47]
Dave Hellman
And I would argue the, like, the patri had so many. And I mean, you could argue, you could talk about whether like Elliot Wolf and the guys in New England deserve more mention for executive of the year because Stefan Diggs was so good relative to what people thought and the defense wasn't amazing, but the money that you spent on defense provided tangible results. I just think Mike Vrabel and Ben Johnson for that matter, like, to go back to what you said, Robert, they were working with the deck of cards they thought they were going to have. And Kyle Shanahan was rolling into work at 6am every Monday saying, like, all right, who's out for the year now? Okay, let's.
- [76:22]
Robert Mays
We'll.
- [76:22]
Dave Hellman
We'll get it right by Saturday. We have to.
- [76:24]
Robert Mays
I. You have to mention Ben Johnson's name and what he's done this year.
- [76:27]
Derek Klassen
But.
- [76:28]
Robert Mays
And I think that Liam Cohen, the combination of what Liam Cohen has done with that offense and the fact that Liam Cohen is the person who hired the guy that both of us just said is the assistant coach of the year, that plays into his resume and his case for this award. So it's a strong year.
- [76:43]
Dave Hellman
It is a very strong year. I think all of those guys have good cases, for sure.
- [76:48]
Robert Mays
All right, let's get to it. Let's get to the headliner here, MVP of the 2025 NFL season. I don't know your answer, so I'm curious where you're starting here, Dave.
- [76:58]
Dave Hellman
I wanted. I'll just be honest. I wanted Matthew Stafford to win this award because he's been one of my favorite players forever and he is a joy to watch. And, yeah, it's like a last remaining vestment from. From like my childhood or my early years watching the NFL because he got drafted when I was still in college.
- [77:21]
Robert Mays
It was the first combine I ever went to. I was a junior in College. It was 2009.
- [77:25]
Derek Klassen
Wow.
- [77:26]
Dave Hellman
I wanted Matthew Stafford to win this award, but when I sat down with it and looked at everything, I was like, if we're being fair about this and removing the fact that he's one of my favorite players, I think it should be Drake May.
- [77:38]
Robert Mays
I landed in a very, very similar place.
- [77:40]
Derek Klassen
That's exactly where I landed. Like, I do think that part of the reason. So I did end up going with May. There was part of me that felt a little bit of reservation, and part of it was, I do still think, like, the old test of like, fifth, fourth quarter, I'm down two minutes. I'm a little bit more scared of Matthew Stafford. I understand that's not the mvp. I do think part of it with the mvp. The narrative argument for May, which I think is totally acceptable, is that when these young quarterbacks have this, their moment, we're going to remember that forever. The Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, when Josh Allen broke out, like, we remember when those guys really have their moment and have their season. And Drake May absolutely had that. I do think when I remember certain games this year and certain plays and certain throws, I do come to Matthew Stafford. Like the game that he played against Houston to start the year. Incredible what he did against that defense game that he played against Philly. The. The. Both games against Seattle I thought were just like, it's cinema. Like, he just. I think I'm going to remember more of what this season felt like and again, that watching Stafford, maybe not the way that you vote for the mvp, and that's not even the way I ultimately voted, but I do think in 10 years, some of the Matthew Stafford moments will be. They will remain in my head a little bit more than the Drake may stuff.
- [78:54]
Robert Mays
This is a legacy defining season for Matthew Stafford. For me, in a lot of ways, I think it solidifies the player that Matthew Stafford has been. And for me it's funny because I think a lot of of people would say that chapter starts when he gets traded to the Rams and it actually doesn't. For me. This version of Matthew Stafford for me starts in 2019. It's when Daryl Bevel got hired to be the offensive coordinator for the, for the Lions. And because if you look at Matthew Stafford's career, it's funny because I'm sure a lot of people would love to look back and they'll just be like, well, Matthew Stafford's always been like this. You guys just didn't appreciate it. That's not true and it's not Matthew Stafford's fault. The offenses that Matthew Stafford played in for a good chunk of his career in Detroit were some of the most underneath horizontal offenses in the NFL over that stretch. There were years where Matthew Stafford finished 31st in the NFL, an average depth of target ahead of only Alex Smith playing for the Chiefs. That's a real thing that happened. That's what the alliance offense used to feel like. Darrell Bevel got there in 2019. And in 2019 and 2020 they started running this more vertical down the field offense. And watching Matthew Stafford play that version of football, I was like, oh shit. Like, this is incredible. And then he gets traded to the Rams and then you see him get to become what he has been over the last couple years. And I think in a lot of ways this is the apex of that. And it's because of what Puka Nakua is. It's because of having Devonte Adams. And it's because I think he's been like this for a while. Stafford has. There are zero given he is like at a place in his career where he's just like, I'm going to try anything. And aesthetically it has made him my favorite quarterback in the league. He's going to finish second team all pro this year. And I think this season for me is what I think. Matthew Stafford is a Hall of Famer. Based on what this season is, this is like the tipping point season for me. Whether he wins the MVP or not, because whether he wins the MVP or not doesn't change the complexion of what he was this year in the NFL.
- [80:49]
Derek Klassen
It doesn't change what you just watch.
- [80:50]
Robert Mays
Exactly.
- [80:50]
Derek Klassen
You saw him be that player whether you give him the award or not.
- [80:53]
Dave Hellman
I hope you're right.
- [80:54]
Robert Mays
And, and it's my, that's my opinion on it.
- [80:56]
Dave Hellman
I trust and respect your opinion about these sorts of things very, very, very much. I don't trust the entirety of the football viewing public or the, or the voting block for that matter. And I, I don't know that Matthew Stafford needs another deep playoff run to be a Hall of Famer, but I think that would go a long way towards cementing it if he doesn't win this mvp.
- [81:18]
Robert Mays
I think that's right. But I would look at it if I were a voter and I would his resume already when it comes to the volume when it comes to again what he's been qualitatively over the last few years, the fact that they won a Super Bowl, I think he's already started to, to stack it up. Even if he doesn't win the MVP this year and he's second team all Pro, Matthew Stafford will have been one of the best two quarterbacks in the NFL in a year where Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen were in their primes. It's a pretty good, that's a pretty good point in the rest of that.
- [81:50]
Dave Hellman
Over to his PR people and make sure they're aware of it. That's a good one.
- [81:53]
Robert Mays
I think what Matthew Stafford has done this year, here's how I would frame it. What Matthew Stafford was asked to do within the Rams offense, you could not do, do better than Matthew Stafford did. You couldn't do it better.
- [82:06]
Derek Klassen
Yes, I agree. And that turned into the best offense in football.
- [82:10]
Robert Mays
Yes, but.
- [82:11]
Derek Klassen
So that's the argument.
- [82:13]
Robert Mays
I think there are a lot of other things that help build it into the best offense in football. They have the second best running game in the league by success rate. It's been dominant this year. Their downhill running game has been awesome this season. They have the guy that we just said is the coach that you would pick over all of the other coaches if you were starting from scratch as an offensive schem. Specifically, they have the best offensive architect and play caller in the NFL in charge of this thing. They have the guy that we would pick as offensive player of the year as one of those receivers. So while I think what he was asked to do, he did it as well as he possibly could have, I do not think he was asked to do as much over the course of the season as Drake May was. And we haven't even started digging into Drake May's case. But there are some numbers when I started looking at it, they're just like okay, like here, here, there's a couple. So first of all, Drake May created 37 first downs with his legs this year to Matthew Stafford. Zero. Just, just, just throwing that out there. Drake May leads the league in both EPA per drop back and total epa. These are the two stats that ultimately were okay. I don't know how you don't do this. Drake made the season per next gen stats at a 40.8% success rate on plays RA he was pressured 40.8%. That's not only the best in the league this year, that is the third best mark in a single season since 2018. The reason that I picked 2018 is that the two players ahead of him if Drake May was third were Patrick Mahomes in 2018 and Josh Allen in 2020. The guy right behind him in fourth is Lamar Jackson in 2023. So the seasons where a player has been as good when, when pressured as Drake May was this year, the only guys around him are the alien MVP quarterbacks from the last five years. And here's the other one that again similar company when we talk about challenging situations as a quarterback. I think Matthew Stafford has done a lot of his damage this year. First down, early down play action. Again, what he was asked to do, he did it as well as you possibly could have. In scenarios where you have a 50% or more passing percentage probability according to next gen. So third downs just plays where you don't really have anything on the table. Drake May created 121 total EPA this season. That is the sixth most in the next gen stats era. The guys ahead of him are 2018 Patrick Mahomes, 2020 Aaron Rodgers, 2022 Patrick Mahomes, 2024 Lamar Jackson and 2016 Aaron Aaron Rodgers.
- [84:47]
Derek Klassen
Are those all MVPs except for Lamar.
- [84:49]
Robert Mays
No, Lamar did win all MVPs or first team all pros except for 2024 Lamar.
- [84:55]
Derek Klassen
What a stupid. Okay, okay.
- [84:58]
Robert Mays
Rogers is the only one who didn't get there. And that was the 2016 Matt Ryan year. Matt Ryan's success rate in those scenarios is the best of the next gen era Stafford. So Drake may 50% past probability or higher has 121. Matthew Stafford had 51. No one else in the league had more than 70.
- [85:20]
Derek Klassen
Wow to wait. Where did that rank Stafford this year?
- [85:24]
Robert Mays
Oh, he, I think he Was I think he was third or fourth.
- [85:28]
Derek Klassen
So still pretty good. But that, that puts Drake May in like a pretty different area. And I will say that's with I, I know a lot of people are going to bring up the schedule stuff. When you are that good, the schedule stuff doesn't matter. Like you can do make the schedule argument. If a guy has a season where you feel like maybe he's the seventh best quarterback in the league and it's like it's a nice oh cool sneaky Pro Bowl. No, this was like he dominated every single team that he played against. Especially after his season long numbers are still really good. If you take it from week four and on, which is after the Steelers game, Drake May was had a 0.32 EPA per drop back. The only other two players above 0.2 are Jordan Love and Matthew Stafford. Like he was so clear of everybody else. Especially after that Steelers game.
- [86:09]
Dave Hellman
Drake May and Matthew Stafford also played six common opponents. Drake May played better, turned the ball over fewer times and was 6o against those teams. Matthew Stafford was 3 and 3.
- [86:19]
Robert Mays
I really liked what Barnwell wrote this week and I, he, he always does the work for me, which is why I love him. He's. He did a test where he averaged out like the quality of opposing pass defenses specifically. If you do it with QBR, May's average opponent ranked 18.6 out of 32 defenses. And like QBR allowed Stafford's was 18.4. It was essentially the same, the same wow for past defenses specifically.
- [86:41]
Dave Hellman
And to go back to your point, and I think it's the real right point and this isn't directed at either of you two sickos or anybody probably listening to this show, but we joked about it earlier this year. The Patriots were doomed to 12pm 615 out of 17 times this year. And so I mean Matthew Stafford's incredible. He's my favorite quarterback to watch in the league right now. But he's playing in so many more visible games where there's so many more opportunities to make a throw and have Puka make a catch where you're like holy shit, that was the play of the week. Meanwhile, Drake May already did all his stuff at 2:25 central time with eight other games on.
- [87:16]
Robert Mays
And but the thing about the one game he had on that Thursday night against the. Or the Giants. Oh yeah, Giants on Thursday night. The touchdowns he throws in that game are crazy.
- [87:27]
Dave Hellman
I think. Oh, oh. I'm blending our shows. We're doing, we're doing this, we're recording this before we Go do our live show where we're going to talk about some of this stuff. But the throw that he had in the Tampa Bay game to Kyle Williams, it went for 72 yards. It was mostly yak, but like the throw together, get it there. Kyle Williams is coming across and guys coming off right tackle and is like barreling into him and he layers this piss missile right over Kyle Williams shoulders. I haven't decided if it's my throw of the year, but it's just the most insane thing. And he did stuff like that, if not every week, then with great regularity.
- [88:06]
Derek Klassen
I do think what really made May's season special to me, especially for a young player, I think Stafford's like five best throws are just where it's like maybe him and Josh Allen, like, it's no good.
- [88:17]
Robert Mays
He's one of the most talented, pure throwers of football to ever walk planet Earth.
- [88:20]
Derek Klassen
Yeah, it is like some of the stuff that he is even like you said, willing to try is completely insane. And then to have the talent to do it consistently. But with Drake May, when you watch him down to down, and this isn't even to diminish the decision maker that Matthew Stafford is Drake May's shot selection almost in the way that I've talked about Patrick Mahomes before, like, he's so accurate because the shot selection is incredible. Not the league. Yes, he knows what throws to make all of the time. Both from a I know this guy's open or I know I can fit this window. And then like, when do I throw a little bit of a change up here? When do I add more on it? When do I just rip the shit out of this?
- [88:55]
Robert Mays
Like when do I check the ball down? Exactly. The decision making was so much better this year than I expected it to be. Even if you were a believer, I don't think you could have anticipated the down to down decision making to be as well honed as already is. And then because I've said this all throughout the year, you know the crazy stuff's going to happen. He's uber talented. The crazy stuff is going to happen. Some of the throws he made again, talking about shit that happens at noon or it doesn't matter. Some of the throws he made in the Saints game, climbing the pocket and pushing the ball vertically down the field that 13 people watched other than people catching it on red zone.
- [89:30]
Dave Hellman
He had the long touchdown he had in that game. The all 22 had to zoom like two miles out to get the ball in frame because it was like such a Moonshot. Incredible.
- [89:40]
Robert Mays
This reminds me of last year and a lot of people have said that this week. This is the final kind of note I'll put on it. Just because you're picking one guy does not mean. Mean you're diminishing the other guy. Like I hope that the celebration that we just had of Matthew Stafford is enough proof that like I think Matthew Stafford has had a beautiful, remarkable football season.
- [89:59]
Dave Hellman
I'll do you one better because and I would vote for Drake May. I'm firmly in favor of him winning this. But looking back through this, it is incredible how much crazy stuff happened to the Rams to keep them from being like a 15 and 2 team where Matthew Stafford would be the slam dunk MVP.
- [90:19]
Robert Mays
Is it weird that I don't give a shit about what their records were?
- [90:22]
Dave Hellman
I don't. I think that's commendable. I think it's.
- [90:24]
Robert Mays
I don't care.
- [90:25]
Derek Klassen
I, I felt like they both played really good ball when they needed to.
- [90:28]
Robert Mays
I don't care.
- [90:28]
Dave Hellman
I think if, if Matthew Stafford was the quarterback of the one seed Rams, I think he's winning this award. I think that's why I bring it up.
- [90:35]
Robert Mays
Why other people would pick like hell.
- [90:37]
Derek Klassen
Right though. I do think you're right.
- [90:38]
Dave Hellman
You do you two distinguished scholarly gentlemen. It's not directed at y'. All I'm talk but this is the world we live in though. And I think if The Rams were 15 and two, Matthew Stafford's winning this award and they have a 44 yard game winner blocked at the buzzer by the Eagles. Kyron Williams fumbles on the inch line in that wild Thursday nighter against the Niners. You have three turnovers against the Panthers. An end zone interception, a red zone sack fumble and a pick six in a game you lose by by three. The second Seahawks game falls apart in the final eight minutes.
- [91:12]
Robert Mays
Rashid Shahid, he should have played better defense in that second makes the only.
- [91:16]
Dave Hellman
Rashid Shahid's punt return makes that makes that trade worthwhile for John Schneider. By the way, if it got you the one seed, you do that every time. And then you have another three turnover game against the Falcons with three Hail Mary type plays. Improbably almost happening like the margin for error where the Rams are potentially the one seed is. It would hurt my heart to think about if I were Sean McVey and I bet it does knowing him.
- [91:42]
Robert Mays
All right, that is all we've got for today. We will be back tomorrow with a two part wild card weekend preview. We are going to be doing the Saturday games and Then we're going to come back with the Sunday and Monday games on two separate shows. Both of those will be available to you at the same time overnight. Right? But is that the plan?
- [92:02]
Royal Match Advertiser
Yeah, roughly. It'll be you'll have them, they'll be ready for you. You'll be able to listen to them all weekend long. Although going back to the Saturday one on Sunday might be a little silly.
- [92:10]
Dave Hellman
Yes.
- [92:11]
Robert Mays
So. But those will both be available to you guys pretty much within the rhythm of how they typically would be. And then just a heads up, we're going to be doing live recap Saturday and Sunday and we've got snow game potentially on Saturday here between the Bears and the Packers. Like everything that could make me just an unhinged mess sitting here at this desk at 10:30pm on Saturday. I hope you guys are ready for that. For now, that is all we've got. Sincerely appreciate you listening. We'll talk to you soon. Oh, could this vintage store be any cuter?
- [92:51]
Gab Tech Advertiser
Right?
- [92:52]
Robert Mays
And the best part?
- [92:53]
Derek Klassen
They accept Discover.
- [92:54]
Dave Hellman
Except Discover in a little place like this?
- [92:57]
Robert Mays
I don't think so. Jennifer.
- [92:59]
Dave Hellman
Oh yeah, huh.
- [93:00]
Derek Klassen
Discover's accepted where I like to shop.
- [93:02]
Robert Mays
Come on baby, get with the times.
- [93:04]
Dave Hellman
Right.
- [93:05]
Derek Klassen
So we shouldn't get the parachute pants.
- [93:08]
Robert Mays
These are making a comeback, I think.
- [93:12]
Dave Hellman
Discover is accepted at 99% of places.
- [93:14]
Robert Mays
That take credit cards nationwide, based on the February 2025 Nielsen report.
- [93:18]
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