The Athletic Football Show: Free Agency Mailbag – March 3, 2026

Host: Robert Mays
Guests: Dave Helman, Michael Beller

Overview

In this episode of The Athletic Football Show, Robert Mays, Dave Helman, and producer Michael Beller tackle a packed free agency mailbag as the NFL off-season heats up. The trio dig into major Houston Texans trades, dissect the complexities of roster building, debate the current state and value of NFL free agency, and answer thoughtful listener questions covering everything from Tyler Linderbaum’s contract dilemma to the role of explosive plays in evaluating free agents. The conversation is rich with tactical insights, real-world examples, and the signature mix of sharp analysis and conversational candor that defines the show.

Key Discussion Points and Segments

[Trades & Housekeeping: Houston Texans’ Moves] (04:50 – 14:34)

• David Montgomery Trade: Texans acquire RB David Montgomery (age 29) from the Lions for a 4th, 7th, and utility lineman Juice Scruggs.

  • Mays: “Fourth, seventh, and Juice Scruggs for Montgomery... a steep price to pay for a little bit of certainty for a guy who’s going to be 29 years old.” (07:36)
  • Hellman: “He averaged seven carries a game down the last stretch of the season, clearly wasn’t happy in Detroit.” (06:06)

• Philosophy on RB Value: Texans’ move seen as seeking certainty given a weak free-agent class and uninspiring rookie RB crop.

  • Hellman: “If you want that unquestioned bell cow, I don’t have a problem with you seeking it out in David Montgomery... unless you really hit a home run in the draft, even at running back, it’s easier said than done.” (09:02)

• Titus Howard to the Browns: Texans trade veteran OL Titus Howard for a 5th-round pick; Howard promptly gets a 3-yr, $63M extension from Cleveland.

  • Mays: “You were getting rid of a playable offensive lineman... It’s possible they’re looking at this and saying, we could find a starter for half that price that we feel 75% as good about.” (11:26)
  • Hellman: “To think there’s a guy out there worth $11 or $12 million a year who isn’t noticeably worse... It’s really, really hard out there to find offensive tackle play.” (12:37)

• Texans’ O-Line Turnover: Both hosts note the Texans’ perpetual cycle of offensive line reshuffling and urge they soon need cohesion.

[Mailbag Questions & NFL Roster Building Insights]

1. New Coaching Staffs & Free Agency Disadvantages (16:51 – 23:44)

• Question: Do established NFL teams have a significant advantage in free agency vs. teams with new staffs?
  • Mays: “Undeniably, yes… Even teams that become successful, it takes time to hone that process.” (16:51)
  • Hellman: “It’s a very optimistic time… you have to spend money to make money… you haven’t proven you can screw it up yet.” (18:14)
  • Mays: “Is it good for the staff? Yes. Is it good for the long-term health of the franchise? That we can debate… It all correlates to how good the coaches actually are.” (20:10)

2. Tua vs. Kyler Murray as QB Options & The ‘Reclamation’ Market (23:44 – 32:43)

• Question: Is Tua really a worse option than Kyler Murray? Why isn’t Justin Fields more often cited as a 'downside' outcome?
  • Hellman: “Kyler is pretty definitively a better option… Tua's concussion history, I just can’t invest resources there.” (24:05)
  • Mays: “If Kyler gets released and you’re paying him the minimum, it’s a no-brainer to swing… it doesn’t have to be a top-10 outcome to be valuable.” (27:08, 31:36)
  • Hellman: “Lottery tickets, man! Buy as many as you can and you won’t care about the money you wasted if you ever hit.” (32:38)

3. Is Cap Space Still Valuable As Free Agency Weakens? (36:09 – 45:01)

• Question: As the cap rises and teams keep their stars, is cap space overvalued?
  • Mays: “You don’t want $100 million in cap space – that means your team just isn’t good... to me, it’s more about financial flexibility.” (36:35)
  • Hellman: “Every team can create financial flexibility... but if you’re the Saints, all you’re doing is getting cap compliant, not better.” (38:47)
  • Mays: “Free agency has always been mostly about replacing draft mistakes with competence... it’s always been that way.” (41:39)
  • Hellman: “Cornerstone players just don’t reach the market by and large anymore... blue chippers aren’t out there.” (39:57, 42:57)

[Free Agency Market Deep-Dives]

4. Tyler Linderbaum & Baltimore’s O-Line Conundrum (45:01 – 53:39)

• Scenario: What should the Ravens do about Linderbaum—re-sign or not, and then what?
  • Hellman: “I’d be perfectly happy re-signing Linderbaum. At worst, he’s a top-10 center... then draft a guard and just maul people.” (45:25)
  • Mays: “When I went down the road two or three steps... I don’t love the alternatives. I think they should make this work.” (48:21)
  • Hellman: “If all you get are mid or bad players for the same price as Linderbaum, who cares?” (49:50)
  • Mays: “None of this happens in a vacuum... but after walking through the alternatives, I’ve made my peace with paying up for Linderbaum.” (53:39)

5. Packers, Comp Picks, and Roster Holes (53:48 – 57:37)

• Question: How should the Packers balance potential comp picks vs. signing free agents to fill holes?
  • Mays: “Comp pick considerations should be a tiebreaker, not a driver. They’ll likely have a third and probably a fourth coming; I don’t expect them to cancel those out.” (54:11, 56:38)
  • Hellman: “I’d be pretty surprised if the Packers are splashing cash three years in a row. That’s just not what they do.” (55:35)

6. Kenneth Walker & Tariq Woolen’s Market Value (59:51 – 63:35)

• Walker Projections:
  • Mays: “Three years, $33 million, probably right around where Kyren Williams signed.” (59:51)
  • Hellman: “James Cook, Kyren Williams range... If it gets up to $12 million, that’s just the free agency tax.” (60:43)
• Woolen Projections:
  • Mays: “I think he lands close to the Paulson Adibo range, $18 million/year, maybe Super Bowl tax bumps him a bit.” (61:10)
  • Hellman: “Wouldn’t shock me to see him get a top-10 deal — $75 to $80 million contract.” (62:20)

7. Do Teams Value ‘Explosive’ Metrics in Free Agency? (64:08 – 68:05)

• Question: Are explosive play rates becoming more important than counting stats in free agent evaluations?
  • Mays: “I don’t think teams are looking with that level of granularity... explosive offenses are more about scheme than individual speed.” (64:31)
  • Hellman: “A roomful of coaches is just watching the guy on tape, deciding if he fits... stats aren’t overweighing the process.” (66:33)

8. Free Agency ‘Winners’ and What Works (68:05 – 73:51)

• Question: Are there trends among teams that ‘win’ free agency?
  • Hellman: “Packers in 2019 — signed Zadarius & Preston Smith, Adrian Amos. Immediate defensive turnaround.” (68:24, 70:35)
  • Mays: “2024 Eagles: Buying talent in the right career phase, betting on players in better situations, and familiarity. Are they second contract guys, were they held back by scheme or circumstance? Those are where you find value.” (70:35)
  • Both: Identify why a player is available; if it’s a reason you can exploit, that’s where value lies.

9. 49ers’ Wide Receiver Room Post-Aiyuk (73:51 – 76:16)

• Question: How should the 49ers approach life after Brandon Aiyuk?
  • Mays: “Can I interest you in Romeo Doubs to the Niners?”
  • Hellman: “I’ll sign off on any receiver for Shanahan, honestly. Mike Evans in San Francisco would be a hell of a lot of fun.” (74:55)

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On Free Agency Realities:
  • Mays: “‘It’s always been that way’ — free agency is mostly for filling holes and patching over mistakes, not building core rosters.” (41:39)
• On Lottery Ticket QBs:
  • Hellman: “Lottery tickets, man! Buy as many as you can and you won’t care about the money you wasted if you ever hit.” (32:38)
• On Offensive Line Priorities:
  • Mays: “None of this shit happens in a vacuum.” (53:14)
• On Veteran WR Markets:
  • Hellman: “Mike Evans in San Francisco could be a hell of a lot of fun. Not a prediction, but could get on board.” (74:55)

Conclusion & Next Steps

• The episode is a comprehensive, honest look at how NFL teams approach free agency in 2026 — with nuanced views on positional markets, the cap’s impact, and organizational strategy.
• The hosts preview deep-dive positional shows and live coverage of the free agent tampering period in the coming week.

Up Next:
Tomorrow – General overview of the 2026 free agent class, highlighting positional strengths, weaknesses, and the biggest open team needs.

This summary captures the major discussion points, with all timestamps in (MM:SS) format for easy navigation for listeners looking to revisit key sections.