From XLIX to LX: How the league has changed since the last Patriots-Seahawks Super Bowl

Summary

Podcast Summary: The Athletic Football Show

Episode: From XLIX to LX: How the league has changed since the last Patriots-Seahawks Super Bowl
Date: February 5, 2026
Hosts: Robert Mays, Derrik Klassen, Dave Helman

---

Overview

In this Super Bowl week retrospective episode, hosts Robert Mays, Derrik Klassen, and Dave Helman take a deep dive into how the NFL has transformed since the Patriots and Seahawks clashed in Super Bowl XLIX (2014 season). Rather than previewing the upcoming matchup, the trio explores changes in quarterback demographics, coaching profiles, defensive philosophy, personnel trends, and decision-making, drawing fascinating contrasts between the league of 2014 and the NFL of 2025.

---

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Quarterback Age & Demographics

• Younger QBs Now Dominate:
  • Average age of top-10 QBR QBs in 2014: 32.5 years; in 2025: 28.9 years.
  • Only 3 of 2025’s top-10 QBs are over 30: Matthew Stafford, Dak Prescott, Patrick Mahomes (“barely 30”).
  • In 2014, 13 primary starters were 31 or older; in 2025, only 6.
  • Reason: Teams prioritize the cap advantages of rookie-scale QBs, and a lack of strong QBs from mid-2010s draft classes.
  • Notable Moment: Remembering Andrew Luck's early retirement and its impact on QB age averages.

“Back in 2014, the average age of a top 10 QBR quarterback was 32 and a half... Now, it's 28.9.” —Derrik (09:13)

---

2. Legacy and “Peak” Quarterbacks

• Less Decorated Young QBs:
  • 2014 had several QBs with “legacy” resumes (multiple Super Bowls/MVPs); many of today’s are still chasing signature wins.
  • Post-2014, championships have been monopolized by Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes.
  • Explains why “lessons” from Super Bowl winners are often too QB-specific to extrapolate.

“The teams that were winning over the last 10 years were quarterbacked by two very specific guys.” —Robert (18:59)

---

3. Defensive Schemes & Personnel Evolution

• Nickel is the new “Base”:
  • 2014: 46.5% nickel, 38.5% base defense.
  • 2025: 59% nickel, below 30% base.
  • Massive increase in big-bodied “slot” defenders (nickels) — from 4 to 13 6-ft+ players among top-25 in slot snaps.
  • The “big nickel” is vital for new run-fit responsibilities triggered by the explosion of two-high shells.
• Decline of Cover-1 Man Coverage:
  • Early-down man coverage has plummeted (from nearly 28% in 2019 to under 15% in 2025).
  • Only the Browns played significant man in 2025, largely due to their smaller, traditional corners.

“In 2014, 46.5% nickel... This year, 59%... And if you add dime, it’s even further.” —Robert (20:33)

“Nobody plays man anymore... it’s a lot to do with the body types at nickel.” —Derrik (28:51)

---

4. Blitz and Pressure Trends

• Blitzing Out of Style:
  • 2014: 14 teams blitzed over 30% of snaps.
  • 2025: Only 7 teams, with a few (e.g., the Vikings) driving up the average.
  • Shifts are linked to schematic changes (less man, more zone; more two-high looks) and a decline in Belichickian coaching influence.

“There are half as many teams blitzing on 30% of snaps in 2025 as there were in 2014.” —Robert (31:01)

---

5. Coaching Profile Revolution

• Youth Movement:
  • 2014: Average HC age was 56; in 2025: 49 (and with new hires, closer to 48).
  • The number of HCs aged 50–60 is drastically down from 20 (2014) to 7 (2025).
  • Coaches under 40 were nonexistent in 2014; now, there are multiple (McDonald, Kubiak, Moore, LaFleur, etc.).
• McVay (& Shanahan) Effect:
  • Offensive backgrounds dominate new hires (6 of latest 10), and the proportion of offensive HCs skyrocketed.
  • Even offensive HCs of 2014 were often from O-line backgrounds; today, they’re “playcaller” types.
  • The McVay/Shanahan “tree” now branches throughout the league.

“Sean McVay is the most influential person in how the NFL operates now compared to 10 years ago.” —Robert (37:43)

“The middle-aged NFL head coach is not a thing. You are either a 60-year-old lifer or a 38- to 44-year-old young gun.” —Dave (35:42)

---

6. Decision-Making and Analytics

• Analytics-Driven Fourth Downs:
  • 2014: Teams went for it on 12% of fourth downs.
  • 2025: Teams go for it on 24% (double).
  • On red-zone 4th-and-1 to 4th-and-6: 2025 conversion attempts up to 63% (from 31%).
  • Even in “field-goal range” and near midfield, go-for-it rates have doubled or tripled.
  • Only the 2025 Seahawks “buck the trend” by going for it rarely—an exception explained by their defensive strength, not philosophical opposition.
  • Marked contrast from the Mark Trestman-led Bears, who topped the league in 2014 with just 28 attempts.

“NFL teams in 2014 made a go-for-it decision on 12% of fourth downs. It’s double that right now.” —Dave (47:26)

---

7. Changing Model of Quarterbacks

• Mobility Is Now An Expectation:
  • Scramble rates have gone from 3.7% (2014) to 5.6% (2025).
  • In 2014, only 3 teams had a scramble rate over 7%; in 2025, it’s 10.
  • Guys like Drake May, previously outliers for athleticism, are now the norm among high picks.
  • Jared Goff may be “the last top pick without that level of athleticism.”
  • The shift reflects trends from high school and college ball: best athlete plays QB.
  • Matthew Stafford is referenced as a “relic of a different era.”

“Jared Goff will be the last guy without that level of athleticism drafted number one overall.” —Robert (54:50)

“We don’t make them anymore.” —Derrik (56:01)

---

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Quarterback Archetypes:

  • “Matthew Stafford only having like one rushing yard the entire year, that feels like the outlier.” —Derrik (54:16)

• On Defensive Evolutions:

  • “Back in 2014, teams played base 41.6% of the time... Mike McDonald’s team is at 6.2% this year.” —Derrik (41:41)

• On Young Coaches:

  • “We live in... the biggest difference about the league now compared to what the league was in 2014.” —Robert (37:16)

---

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Start of Main Discussion: 02:25
• Quarterback Age/Development: 09:13 – 14:59
• QB Legacies & Super Bowl Winners: 15:31 – 18:59
• Nickel vs. Base Defense: 20:33 – 21:55
• Body Types of Slot Defenders: 21:06 – 22:19
• Decline of Man Coverage/Blitzing: 28:51 – 33:05
• Coaching Age & Influence: 33:30 – 39:11
• Offensive Playcaller Ascendancy: 39:42 – 40:25
• Abandoning Base Defense: 41:41 – 43:53
• Analytics & Fourth Down Revolution: 47:14 – 52:59
• Rise of Mobile Quarterbacks: 52:59 – End

---

Closing Thoughts

This episode provides a rich, engaging journey through a decade of NFL evolution, focusing not only on on-field tactics, but also on the changing faces calling plays and building rosters. The synthesis of data points, anecdotes, and expert banter delivers a nuanced look at just how much has changed—and in some ways, what remains timeless—about professional football since the first Patriots-Seahawks Super Bowl matchup. The consensus: today’s NFL is younger, more aggressive, faster, and more analytical than ever, shaped by seismic shifts in both who plays, who coaches, and how teams make decisions.

---

For fans and observers, this episode is a must-listen (or must-read), perfect for appreciating the NFL’s dynamic evolution.

Transcript

[Robert Mays Rowe]

Well, the holidays have come and gone once again.

[Mint Mobile Advertiser]

But if you've forgotten to get that special someone in your life a gift. Well, Mint Mobile is extending their holiday offer of half off unlimited wireless.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

So here's the idea. You get it now, you call it an early present for next year. What do you have to lose? Give it a [e-mail] Switch limited time.

[Kim Holderness]

50% off regular price for new customers. Upfront payment required $45 for three months, $90 for six months or $180 for 12 month plan taxes and fees. Extra speeds may slow after 50 gigabytes per month when network is busy.

[Mint Mobile Advertiser]

See terms thy ticket lady Jennifer of Coolidge.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

Well, many thanks, good sir. Here is my Discover card. They accept Discover at Renaissance Fairs? Yeah, they do here. Discover is accepted at the places I love to shop.

[Dave]

Get it with the times.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

With the times.

[Kim Holderness]

You're playing the loot.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

Yeah, and it sounds pretty good, right?

[Derek]

Discover is accepted at 99% of places.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

That take credit cards nationwide. Based on the February 2025 Nielsen report.

[Mint Mobile Advertiser]

This episode is sponsored by Gab. The youth mental health crisis is all over the news and we know social media is driving it. And this shocked me. This number, unbelievable. 45% of girls and 32% of boys feel overwhelming stress from being on social media. And together 25% of both feel worse about their own lives. I have a four year old at home, so I haven't confronted this yet. But I know it's coming eventually. And I dread the day that she asked for her own phone and and access to social media. But here's the good news. A company called GAB has solved the problem by doing something no one else is doing. Their approach is tech in steps. Tec in steps works by providing kids safe phones and watches tailored to every age, offering the right device at the right time. From GPS tracking enabled watches for young kids to increase features and parent enabled apps on the phones for tweens and teens. Each device grows with your child. Bottom line, you don't have to give your kid a device that was made for an adult. Get them Gab, which keeps them socially connected safely. I can't recommend Gab enough. Use our code to get the best deal on something that will make parenting easier and give you peace of mind. Visit gab.com footballshow that's G-A-B-B.com and use code footballshow for a special offer.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert May Rowe. Super bowl time rolls on. Today we're doing Something a little bit different on today's show. We've talked a lot about this game over the course of this week so far. We're going to talk more about this game on tomorrow's show. Today we're doing a look back because we've seen this super bowl before, the Patriots and the Seahawks. I thought this would be a good opportunity to look at how the NFL feels different and is different in 2025 compared to what the league looked like in 2014. This is a very open ended conversation. I kind. We gave this prompt and Dave and Derek went with it in whatever way they wanted to. And so some of this is schematic, some of this is the makeup of certain player and coaching pools in the NFL. Some of this is decision making based. So there are a lot of different layers and a lot of different buckets that we took this conversation to. Just what feels different about football and about professional football now compared to what it felt like in 2014. Very much enjoyed this discussion with both of those guys. Let's get to it right now. Welcome to the Athletic Football show coming to you guys live from radio row here in San Francisco. I think it's media row now. I think that's what the sign said.

[Sponsor Announcer]

Oh, no.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

Oh, Bella's just booing me.

[Dave]

He's like, no.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

From the peanut gallery over there.

[Sponsor Announcer]

I don't like media row. I will always call it radio.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

It should just be radio row.

[Dave]

I mean, to, to be fair to them, like how many of these booths are radio?

[Robert Mays Rowe]

It doesn't matter. We're all calling it that anyway. It's like, who's calling it the Willis Tower in Chicago? No one. Even if it's object.

[Derek]

Correct.

[Dave]

That's a great point.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

Here again today, rolling through with our super bowl coverage, we're going to take a little bit of a look back today. We're going to do plenty of looking forward tomorrow during the preview show. You can't really do five shows about the Super Bowl. I don't think you should do five shows about the Super Bowl. And so we're going to spend a little bit of time today going back and looking at the ways the NFL has changed and maybe some of the ways it stayed the same since the last time the Seahawks and the Patriots played in the Super Bowl. The moment that we saw this was the matchup. My mind immediately goes to where I was at that time, where the league was at that time. And so I wanted to use the fact that we have seen this game, this exact matchup before. Kind of do A little bit of a stroll down memory lane about the way the league feels different now compared to the Malcolm Butler game.

[Dave]

A really perfect football game. Like everything about it. A very memorable Super Bowl. I'm really happy about this exercise. It's exactly the type of thing that I love about the athletic football show. But before we look back, can we look to our left and acknowledge, I.

[Derek]

Thought Robert was going to let it run.

[Dave]

No, I was not.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

I was not we were going to go any further.

[Dave]

We just need to address Derek is paying off his wins pool bet. If you're listening to this, please go find. Come find us on YouTube. Come find us on social media. You look fantastic.

[Derek]

Of all the episodes to go find on YouTube, this is the one for sure.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

You can't see it, but the tale is the best part. Go check out the social media and you will see how the tail just perfectly falls. The fact that you did not have to cut a hole in the pants I find a little bit sad. I wish that you had had to cut a hole in the pants in order for the tail to work.

[Derek]

So for me too, I was thinking I had not, like, perfectly tested the outfit before I brought it here. And then I realized I was like, I don't have scissors if I have to cut the butt out of my pants so that I can fit the tail through. And then I put it all on and thank God it, like, sits right above my waistline.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

Anyway, two important moments from this morning. Nate was the first person you ran into outside of your hotel, which is just incredibly fortuitous timing. Again, if you would like to check out interaction, we caught it on camera. It is available to you on all of our social media channels. The best part about having to wear this and what I mean by best is the worst when you're the one doing it, you're gonna see a lot of people, you know, but inevitably you are going to meet people for the first time that you know from the Internet. And so seeing you meet JJ Zacharysson just standing here next to Matt Harmon while being dressed like that, and this is your first impression meeting this person. Those are my favorite moments from today, and I hope we get several more of them.

[Derek]

It's some combination of meeting people for the first time like that or people not even realizing it. To me, like I was when I was talking to Matt Harmon right there, he said he had saw me earlier and was like, who did they let in here? Oh, I shouted out to him right after that and he was like, it took him a second to be like, oh, I do know that guy.

[Dave]

I ran into an acquaintance when you showed up to Radio Row and she was like, I was going to come say hi, but you were talking to some lunatic in a wolf costume. So I just left it alone. And I was like, it's still a fair descriptor.

[Derek]

It's a good call.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

As an objective observ to this, do you. Where would you rank this like, the best to worst? Hot dog, face paint, glitter, and this? How would you stack them up?

[Dave]

Oh, I think the face paint was the worst.

[Derek]

I don't understand how everyone has this at all.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

I don't understand why you don't feel at all like worried about the face paint. You. You don't think that was bad?

[Derek]

The unicorns and the flowers just like, doesn't really freak me out.

[Dave]

That because, like, the hot dog costume.

[Derek]

I'm also hot right now.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

Well, you are so itchy. That's where I'm hot. The actual inside material looks so shitty that I just can't even imagine how.

[Derek]

It's like a burl sacking.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

Yeah.

[Dave]

In my mind I'm just like, yes, the costume is crazy. But you look at Derek and you're like, that's Derek. He's still wearing glasses.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

That's Derek.

[Dave]

Classen. If you've got shit on your face, like face paint and glitter and again, like, you're going to like make eye contact with an NFL player or somebody important that you've never met before, there's no getting past that. There's no, like, hey, I'm dressed like a wolf, but. But this is my face. I'm David Hellman. No, you have glitter on your face. And that's, that's tough.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

The fact that you didn't have to talk to Fred Warner while wearing that, I think we should have made you.

[Derek]

Oh, that would have been devastating. Talking of all the players that I'm.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

A little bit disappointed that that's not what happened, but I don't move past it.

[Dave]

I don't know if he's here, but if I ever meet Tyler Schuck, I'm going to be like, this doesn't matter to you, but you saved me from having to do this.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

So he's here this week, is he? All right?

[Dave]

I got to, I got to find some point.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

He may be stopping by. I'm not sure if we actually booked that or not. All right, so we. This is a very open ended exercise. I gave you guys very little direction about this. It was essentially, go back, look at what the league looked like. In 2014 and look at what the league was in 2025. And let's have a conversation about those two worlds. And so I assume we're going to land on like three or four things each just kind of maybe a dozen things that compare the NFL in 2014 to the NFL in 2025. Derek, I was peeking over your shoulder earlier and saw your notes. The one at the top for you is also one that I had in some capacity. So I'm going to let you kick this off. What is the first thing that when you were comparing the NFL 10 years ago, 11 years ago to the NFL now, that struck you?

[Derek]

It's something that has been on the minds of people, I think kind of since Philip Rivers came back and had to play a few games. Is that the age disparity in really all starting quarterbacks but like the best starting quarterbacks is a lot different than it was in 2014 than it is now. Like right now the average age of the top 10 guys in QBR is 28.9 years old. Only three of them are above 30 years old, which is Matthew Stafford, obviously Dak Prescott and then Mahomes is barely 30. Like he barely hits that marker. Back in 2014, the average age of a top 10 QBR quarterback was 32 and a half. So a three and a half year difference. I was talking to Beller about this before as we were talking earlier. That's like an entire contract, basically. It's like an entire extra contract until these guys became that good. And with that group, it's only three of them that are below 30 years old. It was Russell Wilson who was sixth and then really at the bottom of that it was Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan who were barely under 30. They were 29. Like it just the caliber of guys and what kinds of quarterbacks are good right now is so different.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

Was Andrew Luck in there?

[Derek]

Andrew luck was actually 11, so he was very close. But it wouldn't have changed the age thing that much because 11th this year, barely qualifying was like Mac Jones. So it's like he was probably about the same age that Andrew Luck was.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

That was one of the When I was looking back at just statistics from 2014, seeing Andrew Luck at the top of a lot of those lists, I was just like, oh man.

[Derek]

It made me go back and watch the Bengals playoff played dog. The throw that he makes to Dante Moncrief is just like Dante.

[Dave]

We've got Dante Moncrief mentions on the show.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

There's going to be a lot to remember some guys associated with this show. One of my first notes was very similar to this. It was essentially just the age disparity with quarterbacks in the NFL. And so you looked at it through qbr. I just looked at it for primary starters, you know, the guys that were the starting quarterback for their team entering the season. There were 13 primary starting quarterbacks in 2014 that were at least 31 years old. Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Josh McCown, Carson Palmer, Tony Romo. Remember the Josh McCown 2014 season? That contract he got from the Bucks because of how he played for the Bears?

[Dave]

How could I forget?

[Robert Mays Rowe]

Classic times. Carson Palmer, Tony Romo, Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, Kyle Orton. A lot of former Bears starting quarterbacks in this list. Ryan Fitzpatrick, Aaron Rodgers, Jay Cutler. Thirteen guys this year in the NFL, there were several. Six primary starting quarterbacks who were 31 or older. Aaron Rodgers, Joe Flacco, Matthew Stafford, Geno Smith, Dak Prescott, Jared Goff. That was it. So twice as many guys were at least 31 in 2020, in 2014 as there were in 2025. And I think we understand why this is the case, right? The economics associated with starting quarterbacks in the NFL. Teams are incentivized to go really young and really cheap. Because in 2014, I still think we were just coming to the epiphany about rookie, rookie scale quarterbacks and their value.

[Dave]

I mean, the 2014 Seahawks, really, 2013 and 2012 too, but those iterations of the Seahawks, that was. That was the zeitgeist of like, yes, find this guy on this rookie deal and build a phenomenal team around him. We were right in the thick of that at that time.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

And I also think that if you look at the drafts, right? So how many quarterbacks from the 202004 draft are in this group? Rivers, Rodgers, Rivers Roethlisberger, Eli. We talked about this a lot. There is a missing era of starting quarterbacks in the NFL that was like the 2013 through like 2015 drafts. Essentially it's like the EJ manual draft, the Marcus Mariota draft, the Jameis Winston draft. Those guys are no longer starting quarterbacks in the NFL. There's an entire swath of drafts over like a three to four year period that none of those guys are currently starters in the league anymore. And so the incentives for going younger because of the money and the fact that there's an entire era of guys missing that has pulled down the average age of quarterbacks in the NFL drastically over the last 10 years.

[Dave]

And throw in, too. Not quite that draft, but the best of those guys, Andrew Lucky Luck retired very early. Not to blame him for that, but that skews things, too. When he could be. If Andrew Luck was still playing, imagine the age that he would be in and the way that he would skew those numbers, and it would probably be him and Matthew Stafford at the upper end of, like, every age conversation when you're talking about starting quarterbacks in the NFL. So for him to retire, was he. How old was he when he even retired?

[Robert Mays Rowe]

It was 2017. And so that was nine years ago. He was 27.

[Dave]

Yeah. He wasn't even 30 years old when he retired.

[Derek]

He wasn't 30.

[Dave]

There's no telling.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

Is that right? So he. No, excuse me. 2019 is when he retired. So in 2019, he would have been. He would have been like, 29.

[Derek]

Yeah.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

Yeah.

[Dave]

Still not 30 years old.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

Yes.

[Dave]

So 29.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

I'm sorry.

[Dave]

It's wild to think the effect that he would have as a quarterback in that age range if he was playing and still near the top of the league, even if he wasn't the best in the league, what that would do to those numbers.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

I also think it plays into the conversation we've long had, and it's been pretty popular over the last couple years just about the idea of quarterback development in the NFL and how many guys are winning between the ears compared to previous eras. And I don't even necessarily think it's a development problem. I think it's just the demographics of the quarterbacks influence that. Like, as this group gets older, I do think that we'll have the same feeling about watching late career Mahomes and late career Josh Allen as we had watching late career Peyton Manning. Like, this idea that Peyton Manning was like a bag of bones who won in a cerebral way is only true later in his career.

[Derek]

Same thing with, like, Drew Brees. People always talk about, like, pop gun Drew Brees, and it's like, dude, go watch, like, 2009 Drew Brees. He's throwing the shit out of the.

[Dave]

You could even argue, like, even, like, you could argue. Really, only 2015 and maybe 2014. Manning was a bag of bones. Like, in 2013, he threw 55 touchdowns.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

He was still. His physical skill set had deteriorated by that point.

[Sponsor Announcer]

It had.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

But, like, close neck injuries.

[Dave]

Yeah. But it still looked better than, like, what people think of when you're thinking about that final Broncos championship, of course.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

But he was a really good athlete. Like, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees were not, like, statuesque Couldn't move pocket passers early in their career. And so I think as this group starts to get a little bit older, the current group in the NFL, we're going to have an appreciation about the ways that they can win that are more similar to late career Peyton Manning, late career Drew Brees.

[Dave]

So if you'll allow me, because one of mine was similar enough to Derek's that let's just throw it in there. And it is just talking about the age range of quarterbacks at that time versus right now, and consequently the legacies and what has been accomplished by quarterbacks in the NFL right now. Like, if you go back to 2014, these were. These were the guys we're talking about. Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning. Throw him in there. The guys I'm leaving out, Philip Rivers, Matt Ryan hadn't won his MVP yet, and Matthew Stafford obviously had a lot of football left to play. Most of the guys I just listed had already, like, accomplished their legacy, cementing stuff like Aaron Rodgers at that point.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

The first, like, six guys you listed off at all. One Super Bowl.

[Dave]

Exactly. Rodgers had already won his super bowl and multiple MVPs after the 2014 season. Brees had won his Super Bowl, Manning had won his first Super Bowl. And even though Brady was about to start another run, he had won three Super Bowls. We could. We could crystallize our opinions of these guys already, even with that much time left in their career. Now go look at it. I'm not saying anything revolutionary, but since the Patriots beat the Seahawks in that 2014 Super bowl, these are the guys that have won championships. Brady four more times, Patrick Mahomes three times. Stafford and Peyton winning closer to the end of their career than the beginning. And then Nick Foles filling in for Carson Wentz and Jalen Hurts is the closest thing you could describe to a young quarterback with a lot of his career left in front of him. Like, it just. We haven't been seeing that. And so, like, so many good quarterbacks in the NFL right now, they haven't gotten there. Or if you want to be optimistic about it, they haven't written the final chapter, and hopefully they do. But a lot of really good quarterbacks in the NFL right now who are still waiting on that moment.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

I think it's two things come to mind when you say that. One, we forget that there was a long period of time where the Patriots weren't winning Super Bowls. Yes, right. Like, I think in our minds, like, the Patriots were in it every Single year. It's been funny this year seeing a lot of. I worked at the Boston Globe out of college, my first job. And so people I worked with at the Globe still work at the Globe. And I would see them at the super bowl seemingly every single year because the Patriots are in it. And then now there was a couple year gap and now they're all back. And so that's even bringing me back to like, oh, yeah, this is what the super bowl used to feel like. But there was a long period of time from like what, 2012 through 2017 where the Patriots were not playing in the Super Bowl.

[Dave]

There was a period of time where we were like, oh my God, I can't believe, believe Eli Manning stole Brady's legacy. Like, are, are they ever going to do this again? And another note I made while I was looking at this was in 2014, Brady Manning was a neck and neck contentious debate, like, who's the. Who's the better one? And Brady just took it and ran with it to a degree that I don't think even then you could have predicted. But that, that was not the case when the Patriots were getting ready to play the Seahawks in 2014.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

Yes. Excuse me.

[Derek]

So they, it was like after the undefeated season.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

Yeah. So like when they. So in 2012 and 2013, they obviously missed the Super Bowl. In 2014, they win the Super Bowl. 2015, they don't go. And then, then you have that run. 2016, 2017, 2018, that's when they go three years in a row. And so for the most part, like the only times they went between the undefeated season and then in 2014 was 2011.

[Dave]

Yeah, they lost Indy.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

There was like a significant stretch where a lot of other teams were winning championships. And that just hasn't happened over the last 10 years. And I think the other part of it, one of the other things that comes to mind is whenever. This is why I always do the lessons from the Final Four show, not who, lessons from the teams that won the super bowl. Because the teams that win the super bowl is an extremely small group. And especially over the last 10 years, the only teams winning Super Bowls essentially were Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady. So what can you really learn if that's always going to be your North Star? And so. So I think that's also why it's a little bit misleading to only look at the teams that are winning, because the teams that were winning over the last 10 years were quarterbacked by two very specific guys. All right, so my first one here I Had the age of the quarterbacks. There aren't a ton of 2014 is right before we start getting some of the next gen stuff. And so things like coverages, box counts, all of that. Even PFF doesn't have those numbers going back that far. And so. So I think anecdotally we probably understand that the league was a lot more single high back then. It was a lot more cover three back then. Gus Bradley was the coach of the Jaguars by 2014. The next year, Dan Quinn would become the head coach of the Falcons. And so you started to see the legion of boom effect take over the league in like in this era. But we don't have a lot of numbers on that one schematic thing that we do have information on. And I do think it's really important, even when you compare it to this super bowl, the league in 2014, 46.5% nickel, according to True Media, 46.5%. This year, 59%.

[Dave]

I looked that up too.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

We go from being slightly less than 50% to being 60%. And if you add in all the dime snaps, it's even further in this direction.

[Derek]

I did it the opposite where I just looked up like base.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

And so what were the base numbers?

[Derek]

So in base it went from 2014, it was 38.5% and it dropped to 29.8. So like a 10% drop in how often anybody is playing bass. And I think that also, like, you see that in the numbers, but you also see it in the way we talk about it. Like we added nickel to like all proteins and stuff. Like we added a position to the way that we talk about the game.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

So the amount of nickel that people are playing, the prominence of that position. But then the other thing I was looking at was the body types of guys who were playing in the nickel. And so in 2014, I just looked up the top 25 guys in slot snaps on pro football on PFF. Four of the top 25 guys in 2014 were 6 foot or taller. This year, 13 of the top 25 guys in total slot snaps on defense were 6 foot or taller. And that's not even including guys like Jalen petrie who are 511 but weigh 205.

[Mint Mobile Advertiser]

Right?

[Robert Mays Rowe]

And so if you did 205 or 6 foot, it's just drastically different. Like when you look at the guys who are getting a ton of slot snaps in 2014, it was like Captain Munterlin, right? Like, those are the types of guys that were at the top of those lists.

[Dave]

It's wild to think we're not that far removed from like when you're scouting cornerbacks or talking about draft prospects at cornerback, it's like, oh, he was, he was good for his college team, but his arms are 29 and 7, 8 inches long. Like he'll, he'll be a nickel. And it's just like, yep, you're not good enough to do it outside in the pros. So we're just going to move you to the nickel.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

You're too big, you're too small.

[Dave]

Yeah, yeah. And so like even as recently as like probably 16, 17, 18, people talk that way where it's just like, well, we're just, we'll move you to nickel because that's where you can play in the NFL. And look where we are now. And it is this highly specialized skill set and guys have gotten bigger and you are prioritizing looking for them. And I think we've mentioned it before, it's, it's only gonna, it's going to turbocharge from here. In my opinion, with the success that some of these teams have had, where everybody is going to be hunting this type of player, rather than being like, I don't know what to do with you. Can you play nickel? Like, that's just not the way we talk about it anymore.

[Derek]

And it's because when Everybody into like 2014, even up until like this didn't really start to turn into like 20, 19, 2020, when we got a lot more of the, the offenses and defenses started to change a little bit, but you could be a little bit lighter at the nickel when you were loading the box and like you had a heavier, strong safety that was going to be in the box for you and stuff like that where you just had the body count. So that guy was a free fitter sometimes and it didn't really matter that he was a little bit lighter. Now if you're going to be teams like specifically the Seahawks, you kind of need your big bodied nickel to be able to defend the run. Same thing with like Kyle Hamilton, like all these team. Cooper DeJean is really good at it. Jalen Petrie is really good at it. Like they have to be part of the run fit consistently. They have to, to be able to take space and not just like tackle every now and then. That's a huge reason why it's, it's like, that's why it's so tied to the too high movement is like, well, if you're going to lose bodies in the box, they need to still have like weight in the box.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

If you look at the two high numbers even from like 2016 compared to 2021, 2021 is the first year that the league was more than 50% starting from two high shelves. And so but if you look back at like 2016, which I'm sure it was even more pronounced in 2014, we're talking about like 42%, 43%. And so that has been a drastic change, even if we don't have the numbers specifically from 2014. And it's playing into again, the types of bodies that we're seeing in those nickel looks. All right, before we move on, we're going to take a quick break.

[Sponsor Announcer]

This might sound like a parenting trope or an advertisement written for the Lulz, but I got to say it's true. I have two kids and I can say, I don't know, roughly 65, 70% of nights my wife and I are like, so what's for dinner tonight? A lot of times dinner time hits and the fridge is full of question marks. And that's when Butcherbox has our back. Start the year strong with high quality protein delivered right to your door. Including kid friendly favorites that make weeknights easier for the whole crew, Butcherbox delivers more than 100 premium protein options straight to your door, including 100% grass fed beef, free range organic chicken, crate free pork and wild caught seafood. For more than a decade, Butcherbox has led the industry with meat and seafood that's antibiotic free, hormone free and independently verified. It's the clean, trustworthy protein you want to be eating, especially at the start of a new year. Every product meets the same rigorous standards. Whether you're cooking a filet mignon or popping chicken nuggets into the air fryer. It's all quality across the board. And whether you're meal prepping for a strong start to the year, feeding a family with picky preferences, or just trying to keep your weeknights simple, Butcherbox offers fully customizable plans that fit your routine, your goals and your schedule. As a certified B Corp. Butcherbox is committed to doing things right, from how the animals are raised to how their team supports workers and reduces environmental impact. Plus, every box ships free always and members get access to recipe inspo tips and exclusive deals that make every meal easier, healthier and more enjoyable. As an exclusive offer, new listeners can get their choice between organic ground beef, chicken breast or ground turkey in every box for a year, plus $20 off when you go to butcherbox.com athleticfootball that's right, your choice of organic ground beef, chicken breast or ground turkey in every box for an entire year plus $20 off your first box and free shipping always. That's ButcherBox.com AthleticFootball don't forget to use our link so they know we sent you what if sports were traded like markets? Now you can put your sports IQ to work in real time with Robinhood Prediction Markets. It's not you against the house, it's you participating in a live market. You can buy or sell your positions live all game long. Use your sports knowledge in the moments that matter. Robinhood Prediction Markets changes the game. It's people moving the action so when momentum shifts, you can move with it. I always knew the game but never had a dynamic way to apply that knowledge. Now I can actually take part live. In a market powered by people, you're no longer just a spectator. Play by play, you decide. Trade every play with Robinhood now available across the U.S. download the Robinhood app now to begin Futures and Clear Swaps Trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Event contracts are offered by Robinhood Derivatives llc, a registered futures commission merchant and swap firm. This episode is sponsored by BetterHelp. Sometimes it can feel like everyone else has it all together in their love lives. No matter where you are in your romantic journey, therapy can help you find your way, help you determine what you want, what feels heavy, and how you can take some pressure off yourself. BetterHelp therapists work according to a strict code of conduct and are fully licensed in the US BetterHelp does the initial matching work for you so you can focus on your therapy goals. A short questionnaire helps you identify your needs and preferences and their 12 years of experience and industry leading match fulfillment rate means they typically get it right the first time. If you aren't happy with your match, switch to a different therapist at any time from their tailored recommendations. With more than 30,000 therapists, BetterHelp is the world's largest online therapy platform, having served more than 6 million people globally and it works with an Average rating of 4.9 out of 5 stars for a live session based on 1.7 million client reviews. Sign up and get 10% off at betterhelp.com maze that's better. H E L P.com maze.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

All right Derek, what's your next one? What your next lesson or next difference from the 2014 NFL compared to this one?

[Derek]

I did have one that is actually a little bit tied to that in terms of the types of coverages we're getting and I think this is partly related to the nickel. So if you look at, I think when we all imagine, like, the single high versus the too high world, a lot of it is like, well, they just played a ton More cover three back in, like, 2014 and 15. And that's a little bit true, but teams still play a lot of it now because it's a nice base call. You can play it on everything. It's a really good, like, simulated pressure look. Or if you're bringing five, whatever it.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

Is, it's still the most popular, right? Exactly. Like, if you look at everyone's day one, still the most popular coverage in the NFL, 100%.

[Derek]

The difference is that nobody plays man anymore. And part of that is when you had smaller nickels, when the guys. 511, 190. Well, yeah, he can run with anybody. When you have a Nick Edmond warrior and he's like 6, 2, 2, 10, it's like he can run with some guys in certain matchups, but you just don't want to necessarily put that guy in man coverage all the time. And so I looked at, like, early down cover one back in.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

Where did you find this?

[Derek]

So I couldn't go all the way back to 2014. This only goes back to 2019. But again, this, I still think feels very, like, similar to. I don't think we got that change until, like, 2021.

[Dave]

Like, you're talking about digging for 2014 era impossible.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

It was. It was hard. Yeah. There's really nowhere you can turn.

[Derek]

That's why I did some of, like, anecdotally, like, trying to mesh you with what I got from as close as I could get. So I got to 2019 and early down cover one in 2019, on average was 27.6. And you got a ton of teams that were, like, above 40%. And this year in. In 2025, that was 14.9%. And you hardly got anybody, like, over 25% because it's a lot of these teams with bigger bodies that just don't have nickels that can run. Really. The only team, even if you look beyond early downs, the only team that ran more than 30% cover one or man coverage at all this year was the Browns. And it's because they still have smaller, lighter corners. Like, that's how they had built the room. Most other teams just aren't built that way anymore, and so they can't really play that way.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

So it's funny, we were on a somewhat similar wavelength. Man and blitzing are obviously, obviously tied together. Right. And so that those numbers we do have for 2014 compared to 2025. So I was looking that up. In 2014 you had 14 teams that had above a 30% blitz rate in the NFL.

[Sponsor Announcer]

14.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

This year there was seven. So literally half. And the league wide blitz average is about, is down about 3% in now compared to 2014. But that number is skewed because you still have teams like the Vikings that are blitzing on like 48% of snaps. And so there are still enough teams that are doing it at an extreme level where the overall league averages aren't that much different. But when you look at how many blitz heavy teams there are, we got.

[Dave]

We got three teams doing a lot of lifting.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

Exactly, exactly. There are. So there are half as many teams blitzing on 30% of their snaps in 2025 as there were in 2014.

[Dave]

I'm trying to like in the moment think of the catalyst for that. And it's. I mean it's just teams not trusting themselves to. I think it's just you're generate pressure in that way.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

You're making it easier on offense.

[Dave]

You're going to get. Get yourself eaten alive.

[Derek]

Yeah, it was. They lived in. Nate was really good at this term. It was like a gash or B gash world in like 2018, 2019 when some of the the zone stuff really started to take off. It was like, well, some of these teams, the Shanahan's, McVeigh is. They were like, well, if you're going to be in heavy boxes all the time and you're going to be in man coverage all the time and you're just going to throw bodies, we're just going to like block it up on this play action stuff and we're just going to hit you over the top consistently because we know what we're getting.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

And I think it's all again, it's tied to when you're playing more single high and you're playing more man, you're just going to be blitzing more. Just like that's just the nature of the sport at that point. Point.

[Derek]

And the other small part of it too. Like think about like in from like 2014 to like 2019, how many more of the defensive guys permeated around the league were Belichick guys? Yeah, it was guys who were blitzing and playing man. Whereas like we just don't really pick from those trees quite as much anymore.

[Dave]

That is a really. And I'm going to touch on something related to that in a minute. But the, the Belichick tree's influence on the league and how that has shifted to other coaching trees and other coaching philosophies here over the last four or five years.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

So while you guys were talking, I was just curious. I was looking up the some of the coaches that were coordinating some of these blitz heavy defenses in 2014. So the Rams had the number one blitz rate in the NFL in 2014. It was like 44%. Greg Williams was the Rams defensive coordinator. Third on the list, the Arizona Cardinals. Who is the Arizona Cardinals believe scoring in 2014?

[Dave]

Todd Bowles.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

Todd Bowles. And so we have some of the very familiar blitz heavy characters from that era are guys that have been the blitz heavy characters in the NFL over the last like decade and a half.

[Dave]

I'm just on a like post college early career acid trip right now, like hearing some of these names.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

So the other one, the last one, the packers were also in the top five. Dom Capers was the defensive coordinator for the packers in 2014. So all of those dudes from that era who were like the heavy pressure guys like that was still very prevalent in 2014 in a way that now it feels like more of an outlier. Dave, what's your next one?

[Dave]

Actually, it's, it's a perfect dovetail for what I wanted to talk about. This is the first thing I thought about when I heard we were going to do this show because 2014 was such an interesting coaching matchup because it's Belichick. He's been the coach of the Patriots for 15 years. By that point, longer, I guess he'd been the head coach of other NFL organizations, however briefly. He, the guy won super bowls in the 80s with the Giants and coached the Browns. Pete Carroll was an NFL head coach in the 90s, created a college dynasty, won a Super bowl, had done all of this. So it's like two of the biggest, most successful names in coaching. Pete Carroll was 63 and Bill Belichick was 62. Head coaching that game. Now think about the matchup we're getting on Sunday. Mike McDonald is 38 years old, not very far removed from just being a college D.C. and Mike Vrabel, obviously he's got the bonafides as an NFL player. So it's not surprising that he would kind of fast track his way to a position like this. But he's still at the age of 51, on his second head coaching job in the NFL. And so I'm just struck by the difference in coaching age and coaching experience over the last decade. And I went back and looked at it the average age of the NFL head coach in 2014 was 56. In 2025. And I used coaches heading into the 25 season. Obviously it's changed with the amount of turnover.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

It's gotten younger. It has, it's gotten significantly younger.

[Dave]

It's, it was 49 heading into the season.

[Derek]

And so almost a decade, it's almost.

[Dave]

A decade of difference in head coaching experience. And I broke it down by age too. Ironically, the number of 60 plus year old head coaches is similar. And I reason that out by saying, okay, well if you want a steady hand, if you want somebody with that level of experience, if John Harbaugh is your, what your, your cup of tea, what you're looking for, then maybe you hire that guy. But in 2014, there were 20 head coaches between the ages of 50 and 60. In 2025, seven.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

That's crazy.

[Dave]

Like the middle aged NFL head coach is not a thing. You are either a 60 year old lifer or a 38 to 44 year old young gun. That's what it is.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

So I had a very similar one to this and I had different numbers but the exact same thought process. And there were 10 coaches that were 57 or older in 2014. There are five now. And so it's just drastically different. And if you look at this current cycle, how many younger than 40 coaches just got hired? Clint Kubiak, Michael Fluor, I actually, no.

[Dave]

I went back and looked to account for 20, 26. So the age, if you account for the new hires, it's 40. The average age drops down another year to 48.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

And even the average is not indicative of the actual makeup because of what you're saying. It's on the polls. So there are like 40 or younger. There are at least everybody except for.

[Derek]

The legacy guys like the Andy Reid's, the Harbaughs, all that.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

So right now, I'm looking at it right now. Shane steichen is 40, he turns 41 in may. Kevin o' connell is 40, he turns 41 in May. Liam cohen is 40. Sean mcvay is 40. Ben johnson turns 40 in May. Mike McDonald is 38. Kellen moore is 38 or turns 38 in May. Lafleur is younger than 40. Clint kubiak is younger than 40.

[Dave]

You know how many younger than 40 head coaches there were in 2014?

[Robert Mays Rowe]

Zero.

[Dave]

None.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

Mike tomlin was the youngest one. He was 43.

[Dave]

There were only two head coaches in the NFL in 2014 younger than 45.

[Derek]

Tomlin and who?

[Dave]

It was Mike Tomlin and Bill O'. Brien, who was 45 at the time. Those are the two.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

It's just we live in that. That, to me, is the biggest difference about the league now compared to what the league was in 2014.

[Dave]

It just, it was unfathomable to put your trust in a guy with who was that young and who had that little experience. Obviously, it's crazy to think 2014 was still a few years before McVay and like a few years before this whole thing really kickstarted in earnest. And, I mean, the effect is undeniable.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

Sean McVay is the most influential person in how the NFL operates now than it compared to 10 years ago. Since I started. Yes. Since I started covering the league, no one has influenced what the NFL looks like more than Sean McVay. And I think that there are both good and bad things associated with that. But we're still seeing it. Like we talked about it with this coaching cycle, was this going to be the year where because the offensive pool of guys had been picked so clean, were we going to see more defensive coaches get some of these jobs because they were more qualified? The answer is no. I mean, there were 10 openings this. This offseason. Six of them went to offensive coaches, three of them went to defensive coaches, one went to a CEO coach in John Harbaugh. So we had twice as many offense compared to defense, even as we admit that the offense offensive pool has been completely fished over. And if you look at the makeup, not just in terms of age, of the coaches in 2014, there are 21 offensive head coaches in the NFL right now with an offensive background. There are, I think, 10 or 11 defense or CEO types. In 2014, it was 17 offensive versus 15 defensive. So it was essentially 50, 50. And even the types of guys who were offensive head coaches at that time. So he took over as a interim for Dennis Allen. But three of the offensive head coaches in the NFL in 2014 were former offensive line coaches.

[Derek]

Really? Who were they?

[Robert Mays Rowe]

Doug Marone, Joe Philbin, Tony Sparano Jr. Yeah. Okay, so even then when you had offense centric guys, and then Andy Reid is another one, by the way, even then when you had offense centric guys, they were still like this gruff football guy. Like I am the what you understand a head coach to be. So even that the fact that it's a 17 offensive guys is still not indicative of how different the offensive coaches feel now compared to what they were 11 years ago.

[Derek]

Well, and even then, it's like the makeup of, like, what kinds of play callers we were even Hiring in that next, like three to four year period after 2015 or after 2014, Doug Peterson goes to the Eagles, Ben McAdoo with the Giants, Matt Nagy eventually with the bears. That, like, four year run after 2014. It's a lot of the west coast guys. It's a lot of like, people seeing, like, oh, Andy Reid's doing some good stuff. And like, so even as we were trying to get some more of these play callers, it was like, well, we still think the west coast style of thing is the way to do it. And it wasn't really until like 2019 that we started to get more of the, like, Obviously by then McVay had become and really established that. And then his trees, Shanahan's trees just started getting plucked. It was like Zach Taylor's, Matt LaFleur. Arthur Smith in 21, who had obviously worked with Matt LaFleur. Kevin O' Connell in 2022, a third.

[Dave]

Of the league has some sort of tie to McVay and Shanahan, like the head coaching hires. It's crazy.

[Sponsor Announcer]

Yeah.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

And I think that will continue to happen. All right, Derek, what's your next one?

[Derek]

We've talked a little bit about just like some of the coverages and stuff that a lot of these teams are doing and how much base that we're playing and all this stuff. But like, to bring it back to this game specifically, I think it is interesting. We already talked about teams are playing like, way more nickel, playing way less base. I think even as that was true in like 2021, 2022, as we started trickling to that, there weren't that many teams that had like, fully abandoned base as a concept. Like, Sean McDermott had done it a little bit, but for the most part, teams just weren't doing that. You look at the Seahawks specifically, when they were the Legion of boom. In 2014, they ran base 41.6% of the time. Mike McDonald's team is at 6.2 this year. And that's just like, it's such a. To completely abandon it, I think, is such a bizarre thing that we've gotten to at this point where I think so much of what happens with the ebbs and flows of scheme and stuff in the league is that teams push something to such an extreme that eventually it has to come back the other way. And I'm sure in two to three years from now, we'll be talking about the idea of like completely abandoning base as like a bad idea. Like, offenses will probably have adjusted by then and There will probably be some sort of change to that and I.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

Think it's a place where teams will have what they think is their version of Ian Warrior, where they can defend it. And you'll have learned the wrong lessons from what the Seahawks are. Exactly.

[Derek]

Which is what happened with the Legion of Boom is teams are like, oh, just get the tall and long corners and you can figure it out. And like that's not the secret sauce.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

Teams are going to have. They're going to find a 220 pound nickel who's actually not that versatile, who's a little bit too stiff, who can't do all the things you need him to do and then, I mean, this is the best example of this is like the Brandon Staley Chargers, right where you are drawing. You're trying to have the same ideas that powered what is the new meta defensively in the NFL, but you don't have the component parts to see through those ideas. And I think teams are going to look at, well, if we just get a big nickel player, then we'll be able to just play nickel to everything. Not like not going back and watching Byron Murphy take on double teams this year.

[Derek]

And so that's if we could like.

[Dave]

I mean, Nick Emenwari is incredible, but there's a lot more going on here than just him being a great young player.

[Derek]

Yes, that's the thing. Like, Nick Eminwari is cool and he's great, but so much of what actually fuels like how they can fit the run and all this stuff is like, well, yeah, Byron Murphy and Leonard Williams can be two gaps away if they want to at the snap. Their edges are so long and they can hold space in a way that other guys can't. Ernest Jones is like the best fixer in the league as a middle line. Like they have so many other things that make it work. And to your point, somebody's going to make the wrong mistake of, oh, we're just going to take this 220 pound hammerhead safety, we're going to ask him to start running with guys from the nickel and it's like that just problem solved. Yeah, I don't know about that, guys. I don't know.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

And then teams are going to do exactly what the Rams did. They're going to line up in jumbo or 13 personnel and they're going to look at that and be like, we're going to run for 6 yards of carry because you can't stop them. And I think it's funny because even the Seahawks ran into that last year where they tried to play a certain way based on how the way that Mike McDonald wants to play and they didn't have the horses to do it. If you look at their run defense over the first half of the 2024 season, out of those two high looks, it was abysmal. Like they could not stop the run playing structurally how he wanted to play. Last year in Seattle. They needed to go out and get an Ernest Jones. They needed Byron Murphy to take this step and so even the team that perfected it by this season was still bad at it as recently as last season.

[Dave]

I needed to hear this As I get ready to spend draft season hunting for Nick Immunwari body types, I needed this reminder.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

It's never as simple as one thing. It's never just the one thing. And I think similar to the long corners, I think we will inevitably have teams that learn the wrong lessons from what the Seahawks are All right, before we move on, we're going to take one more quick break.

[Sponsor Announcer]

Life insurance is one of those things that we don't really think about until we have to think about it. For me, story is pretty similar to a lot of people. I didn't really think about life insurance until my first kid was born. I have two kids now and I could not imagine not having some sort of coverage Ethos makes getting life insurance fast and easy 100% online. You can get a quote in seconds, apply in minutes, and get same day coverage. There's no medical examination. You just answer a few simple health questions. You can get up to $3 million in coverage. Some policies are as low as $30 a month. As of March 2025, Business Insider named Ethos the number one no medical exam instant life insurance provider. Ethos has 4.8 out of 5 stars on Trustpilot with more than 3,000 reviews. Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos now by going to ethos.com athleticfootball in as little as 10 minutes, you can get your free quote and up to $3,000,000 in coverage at ethos.com that is E T H O S.com Athletic Football ethos.com AthleticFootball Application times and rates may vary.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

People keep asking about my 2026 resolutions and sure, I've got the usual goals. Read More Tweak my workout routine. Make sure I'm eating well. But this year there's a new one at the top of my list. Get comfy. That's where Bombas comes in. They're bringing serious comfort to all my everyday go tos. The All New Bombas sport socks are engineered with sport specific comfort for running, golf, hiking, skiing, snowboarding and all sport. This year I really want to go on some longer walks with the dog over the course of the week and these socks are perfect for that. They're cushioned where I need it most, sweat wicking and loaded with other tech features to keep me comfy and locked in. For those everyday around the house resolutions, Bombas also has you covered with the comfiest footwear imaginable. Anybody doing some spring cleaning and just wanting to be comfy around the house. Their luxurious Sherpa Sunday slippers will feel like walking on clouds. Made with a super comfy and lightweight eva, the Friday sandal, the new squishy Sunday suede slip on for comfort on the go and underneath it all the softest base layers that will have you rethinking your entire wardrobe. Bomba's underwear and T shirts are flexible, breathable and buttery smooth premium everyday go to's that I won't leave the house without. And for every item you purchase, an essential clothing item is donated to someone facing housing insecurity. One purchased, one donated is. With over 150 million donations and counting.

[Dave]

Head over to bombas.com athletic and use code athletic to get 20% off your first purchase. That's B O M B A S.com athletic code athletic@ checkout.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

Boost Mobile is now sending experts nationwide.

[Sponsor Announcer]

To deliver and set up customers new phones. Wait, we're going on tour?

[Robert Mays Rowe]

We're delivering and setting up customers phones.

[Dave]

It's not a tour, not with that attitude.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

Introducing store to door switch and get.

[Sponsor Announcer]

A new device with expert setup and delivery.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

Delivery available for select devices [e-mail]. All right, Dave, you have one or two more.

[Dave]

I've got one more.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

Okay.

[Dave]

And it was the second thing that came to my mind other than coaches, which is think about how decision making has changed in the league over the last decade.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

I was hoping somebody was going to do this because I forgot to look up the numbers.

[Dave]

I got you. And I mean I've got quite a few. But in totality NFL teams in 2014 made a go for it decision on 12% of fourth downs. It's double that right now. That's, I mean that is, that is the, that's the nut graph right there. Like that is cutting to the chase.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

Absolutely.

[Dave]

Teams are going for it twice as often a decade later as they used to. But you can break it down. I mean in the red zone I wanted to look up manageable distances in the red zone. Fourth and one to, like, fourth and sixth. NFL teams in 2025 were going for it 63% of the time.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

What was it in 2014?

[Dave]

31.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

Yeah, it's more than half.

[Dave]

You can see it's like a 15 to 30% jump across everything. I even you bumped the distance up to fourth and two, so it's a little bit less of a sure thing. You kind of take sneaks out of it. Take the tush, push away. Still 31% in 2025. The Charmin. The Charmin Bear walking past us in the middle of this conversation. That is. That's what the super bowl is all about.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

Trying to keep focus while doing these shows as everything happens around you is a real skill, even if you bump.

[Dave]

It up to fourth and two. So it's not a sneak and it's not a gimme 31% this year. 11% in 2014, or three times as much. Go into the open field. I wanted to look up what the distance was like. I used the Plus 28 to the Plus 25. So a makeable field goal, but not a guaranteed field goal. 4th and 1 to 4th and 6. 47% this year. 33% in 2014. 48% if you bump it back to, like, around the logo. 48% this year. 21% in 2014. I mean, double and triple the amount of times NFL teams are willing to go for it a decade later. The most interesting thing about this is there's one. One team in the league that didn't buy into this in 2025, and it's the se. The Seahawks. They did not go for it on fourth down very often. Like, they've got the barnyard. They do their sneak with AJ Barner on occasion. The Seattle Seahawks went for it on fourth down just 12 times this year, which is easier.

[Derek]

That proves the rule thing where I think a lot of times in like, 2014, the. The conventional wisdom was like, oh, our defense will hold. And it's like, that doesn't really work if you have the ninth best. Best defense. When you have one of the best defenses of all time.

[Dave]

The Seahawks are built. They're built to play more conservatively if that's what they want.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

But I also don't think he wants to do that. Like, if you hear Mike McDonald talk about it, that isn't, like, something that he wants to be, like, ingrained in his DNA as a head coach. I think they just kind of accidentally were that this year.

[Derek]

Well, their offensive line is not really good enough for that necessarily. Like you, you can understand how they arrived there given what they have.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

Here's what I'll say. Even if, if the Seahawks defense is as good next year as it was this year, I don't think they will be at the bottom of the league in the amount of time they're going for it.

[Dave]

Well, Mike McDonald and he talked about it sometime during this whole run up to the game. He talked about his analytics guy who was the one that was in his ear about using the timeouts early against Indianapolis. You remember that?

[Robert Mays Rowe]

Yes.

[Dave]

He's got those people giving him advice. It's not like Mike McDonald is ignoring the analytic revolution.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

He's a conspiracy conservative, defensive minded. We gotta play small ball. Coach. Think back to that moment in the NFC championship game where they're throwing the ball in those situations with three minutes left. Like again, that's why I don't. There's some coaches like Mike Tomlin over the last few years where Todd Bowles before they made him start going forward on fourth down, they don't want to do this. I don't think Mike McDonald is one of those people who doesn't want to do it. I think and he said as much this year, he's like, that's not the plan. Like we just kind of of stumbled into this version of ourselves this year.

[Dave]

In 2014, 29 of 32 NFL teams went for it on fourth down less than 20 times on the year. The Bears led the league in fourth down attempts that year with 28.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

Cutting edge.

[Dave]

The Josh McCown Chicago Bears led Mark Tressman, visionary. In 2025, 31 of 32 teams went forward on fourth down 20 or more times. Carolina led the league with 43. So I like it is the numbers are staggering.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

Riverboat round every.

[Dave]

Yes, something like that. Every single team in the league with the exception of this year's Seahawks is doing this shit on a regular basis. In most cases they're not even thinking that hard about it. And when you think back to a decade ago, I mean we knew all of this was going on. But it's just stark to compare the numbers.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

It really and you mentioning like the stuff around midfield, those are the moments to me that the red zone, I just, it feels less stark for some reason to me. It's like the idea of you have the ball, it's fourth and one on the minus 47, you're going for it now. It's just like an understood part of how the game goes. And back then I think it would have been surprising to watch a team go for it in its own territory in those situations.

[Derek]

And I do think now because of the way the kickoff works, if you lose the ball on the plus 20, it's just like, well, that's there further to their own end zone than they would be if we kicked the ball off to them. Whereas now if you do lose the ball in the plus 45 like that, that does suck. Like you should still go for it, obviously and you want to hold the ball, but like you're giving up a lot more.

[Dave]

It is really cool that Belichick was the famous early example of this, that famous 06 game where he went for it on 4th and short in his own territory and broke the brains of the football establishment. But I don't even know if he saw it going where it is today, where like that would still be seen as a bold decision, but I think it would be very quickly rationalized by people who are paying attention to football.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

My last one, just talking about, I think McVay has been extremely influential in how the league is different. I think the other person, you could lump all three of them in together. Like what the 2017 and 2018 quarterback drafts did for how we think about quarterback and what you need from your quarterbacks. Like the trio of what Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson have done for the skill sets that we're seeking out, the players that we're seeking out and the number I think that best reflects this. In 2014, league wide, there was a 3.7% scramble rate. This year it was 5.6%. So that uptick isn't that high. But in 2014 there were three. Three teams with a scramble rate above 7%. Three. Two of those teams are quarterbacked by Colin Kaepernick and Russell Wilson. In 20. In 2025, there were 10 teams with quarterbacks that had a scramble rate above 7%. So we've gone from a place where you have outlier quarterbacks that are these mobile guys who can make stuff happen deeper into the down to now a third of the league is filled with those sorts of players. Players. And the guy Drake May like, did like Drake May would be an outlier in 2014. Now it's just kind of how we understand top five quarterbacks to be.

[Derek]

Well now Matthew Stafford only having like one rushing yard the entire year, that feels like the outlier. Whereas like, yeah, 10 years ago that just felt like, well, yeah, all the other good 35 year old quarterbacks, they just don't move, they just beat you from the pocket. The Drew Brees Peyton Manning, whoever it was.

[Dave]

I mean, I don't want to speak in absolutes, but. But it starts to feel after a certain point that that level of athleticism is a prerequisite to being drafted that highly. Like the first guy that comes to mind that doesn't fit that would be Jared Goff.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

So I did a story and that.

[Derek]

Was 10 years ago.

[Dave]

That was 10 years ago.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

Yeah, I did a story for the ringer in. It was right before I left the ringer. So it was probably 20, 19, 2020. And it was about this idea about how we've gotten to a place where this level of athleticism and mobility for quarterbacks is almost a prerequisite for being drafted in the top five. And I think it might have been Jordan Palmer who said to me, and it's in the story, it's on the record, he said Jared Goff will be the last guy without that level of athleticism that gets drafted number one overall. And it's like, I guess the question is how do you feel like where does Fernando Mendoza fit into all this?

[Dave]

Fernando Mendoza is, he is like a, he's a better athlete than Jared Goff. Like Fernando Mendoza has a level of mobility. I mean if you saw his famous fourth down play in the national title game, like Fernando Mendoza is not Caleb or Jaden Daniels, but he can do those sorts of things. And it's this, I mean Darnold and Joe Burrow fits that description as well.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

Where like Joe Burrow feels like that's the most analogous case. Like Mendoza's athletes.

[Dave]

Yeah, agree with that.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

So it's it, it has very much changed in that way where we have these like statuesque pocket passers in 2016 that are still going number one overall and those guys just. And it's almost just because those guys don't really exist anymore.

[Derek]

We don't make them anymore.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

Yes.

[Dave]

Yeah.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

Like we just have a different type of athlete that's playing quarterback. And I think again the same way that the coaching pool is influenced by like what the McVeigh guys have done, I think the quarterback pool has been influenced by what the Mahomes, Allen, Lamar Jackson trio has. Like how it's reshaped the position well.

[Derek]

And it's like we talk about how the sport has changed. Twenty years ago, high schools and colleges realized that having the best athlete have the ball in his hands on every single play is probably the best way to do it. And so the NFL is always, there's always going to be some sort of catch up period. Especially with how long. We had some of those good pocket passing vets in the league, but we're now at a point where it's like those are kind of the only guys that even get a chance to play quarterback anymore.

[Robert Mays Rowe]

Matthew Stafford is like a weird relic of a different era. Yes, it's very fun to watch, but it is a relic of a different era. All right, that is all we've got for today. We will be back tomorrow with our big blowout super bowl preview. Very much looking forward to that. We're going to have video stuff coming your guys way all throughout this week into the next couple weeks. We're banking a bunch of stuff, doing a bunch of telestration with players. Derek talked to Fred Warner yesterday, not while wearing that costume, which is very upsetting to me, but we're going to have a lot of that stuff coming your guys way. Please, if you have not check out the Merch Store. We have Athletic Football Show Merch now. The link to the Merch store is available in the show description below, so encourage you guys to check that out. If you have not subscribed to the Athletic Football Show YouTube page, now is the time to do it. So please be on the lookout for a bunch of more stuff coming your guys way this week. For now, that's all we got. Appreciate you listening. We'll talk to you soon.

[Kim Holderness]

Hi, this is Kim Holderness from the Laugh Lines Podcast. Let's talk about spring break. You might be thinking, oh no, Kim, nothing good happens on spring break. Well, I'm here to tell you it's time to redefine our vacation time. We all deserve a getaway that is meaningful but doesn't require a ton of planning. Spring break isn't what it used to be. It's better this spring. Stay three nights and get a $50 Best Western gift card. Life's a trip. Make the most of it at best Western. Visit bestwestern.com for complete terms and conditions. The youth mental health crisis is growing and social media is a major driver. Kids are spending up to nine hours a day on screens, often unsupervised, and studies show a direct link to anxiety, dep and even suicidal thoughts. That's where GAB comes in. GAB offers safe phones and watches with no Internet or social media. Just the right tech at the right time. From smart watches for young kids to advanced parent managed phones for teens, Gab keeps kids connected safely. Visit gab.com getgab and use code getgab for a special offer that's G-A-B-B.com getgab Gab Tech insteps independence for them, peace of mind for parents after the holidays. Your home deserves a reset, not another routine right now. Get a free Pura Home Diffuser when you subscribe to 2 cents for 12 months, risk free for 30 days. Create calm on your terms. Visit pura.com.