← The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL
The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL
Lessons learned from this season's conference title game participants
01:28:12
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B
In the home and on the go. Feel grounded, feel good.
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A
Find the mood you need right now@pura.com Moods. Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays. We had a really fun show today. We had a really good time. We do the show every year now. The final four lessons teams that made the conference championship games. What can we learn from the way that they were built? What can we take forward from that? What should other teams pick up on? We've done this show since I've started doing the podcast, so it's been, I think five or six years, five or six different iterations. Most of the time the guest that we've had on that show is some combination of me, Nate Tice and Bill Barnwell. So we just decided to do that again. Our old buddies Barnwell from espn. Nate from Yahoo joined us today to just walk through about a dozen lessons we can learn from the teams that were left on conference championship weekend. Patriots, Broncos, Seahawks, Rams. What should teams take from that? Are there any things that maybe are a little bit misleading? What does it tell us about the NFL in general? This was a incredibly fun, wide ranging conversation. Let's get to it with both of those guys right now. And what has become an annual tradition at this point. I feel like we've done this show probably the last four or five years and some combination of the two of you have been on most of the times that we've done it. I figured this was the chance for us to get the band back together. It is time to run through some lessons from the final four teams left in the NFL. Here to help me do that are two of my old and wonderful friends. First of all, from espn, it's my good friend Bill Barnwell. Barnwell, how you doing, man?
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C
Looks like I dressed for a different podcast.
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A
So did not get you so fixated on this. You don't look that much. Great.
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B
Wow.
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C
Okay. So in between, I don't look that nice. I look great. I'm going to take Nate's side of this. Thank you for complimenting me, my friend.
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B
Of course.
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A
That's not what I meant. I meant that you're not dressed like you're not dressed for that much of a different occasion than we are, but you look great. I'm not disagreeing with him. Also joining us today, it's our old friend from Yahoo, Nate Tice. Nate, how you doing, buddy?
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B
I'm doing great. Like I said before the show, I didn't wear a hat on our Sunday show because I finally got a haircut after two months. And I thought some of our listeners, they acted like I was wearing a suit or a tux. Like they were just in shock that they just saw my hair for the first time in about two years. So, yeah, no, I'm doing wonderful. Very happy to be here. I was glad when you sent that text, like, hey, final four teams. Hey, it's time. Let's do it. So very excited to be here. I love this show.
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A
There are like five or six shows we do every single year where, like, no matter what the staffing on the show looks like, no matter how many times a week we do the show, no matter what any of the other structural things are, we're going to do this podcast. And so this is one of them every year we're doing this because I think it's such a fun way to use these collections, this collection of teams, these four teams, as a way to point to what larger themes about the NFL. I, I, I think it's a really good exercise. It's useful and it's fun. And so we're going to continue going back to it. This is a very simple kind of deal here. We each came with I said 4ish to you guys, right? It was 4ish. Was that the draft, 4ish?
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C
I, I, I was like, I think I have like 12, so I don't get a number.
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I said 4ish. 4ish lessons you think you can pull from the final four teams left in the NFL? For those of you guys that are wondering, that means the Patriots, the Broncos, the, the Rams, and the Seahawks. So what kind of through lines can we find from those teams that we can maybe attach ourselves to and use as directives for how teams should think about how to get to this weekend moving forward? Barnwell, you have 12, so we're going to start with you. What is your first lesson that you took away from the final four teams in the NFL this year?
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C
Okay, so this is not my, I didn't come up with this, obviously. I know Greg Olson has talked about this a lot during broadcast. Obviously. I think Greg Olson does phenomenal work, but it is borne out by the final four teams and that is this idea that what really matters in the NFL now is not yardage field goals, but explosive plays and your ability to produce explosive plays and stop explosive plays. And I know like there's a little bit of totality to that. Like, you know, you want to get a lot of those and you want to stop a lot of those, I don't think that's like a brand new idea. But if you look at explosive play differential and I think this is 12 yard, 12 yard runs, 16 yard passes or longer. Seahawks number one in explosive play differential and I think the ninth best explosive play differential rate since 2000 behind a bunch of Shanahan teams. The greatest or 2001 greatest show on turf, Rams. And then a couple of legion of boom teams. Rams number two. Patriots number four, Broncos number five. Four of the five teams atop the NFL and explosive play differential are in the final four. Can you guys guess who number three is?
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Colts.
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Packers. Colts. That is a good guess. Packers. Got it. Yes, dog. Packers are number three. So this idea that like the best teams, what they are doing is they're giving up yards here and there doesn't really matter. Patriots are terrible in the red zone. For example, they're the worst red zone defense in football. But if you can control the explosives and you can create explosives, that is what actually makes the difference and moves the needle in the NFL in 2025.
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B
I love this. This is.
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Where are you natives? You've done your suplex stuff over the last couple years, which for you is like a. It's a, it's a good measure and it's a good thought where you're combining essentially success rate and explosive play rate and trying to build them into one metric to get a sense of not only how explosive these offenses are, but how consistent down to down they are. Have you noticed any sort of vacillations on the line between explosiveness and success rate where it trend more toward big plays with the offenses that you're like, this is what you should be chasing.
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B
Yeah, no, absolutely. They're for passing. I found the golden numbers. 14% just pass attempts. That doesn't include scrambles. I've kind of made up my no own little like scrambling explosives as well because I've realized that the running explosives can get skewed. But no 14% passing. And then I found rushing the exploits explosive runs matter if you don't get explosive passes, but if you do have explosive passes, then explosive runs becomes a little bit less necessary. And I felt like there was rushing success rate. 40% kind of the gold mark. You know, you can go plus one, minus one about from there, but more or less that's the mark I'm looking for. But no, I, I've really taken this as some of my dad's ever has believed in and really he got it from Brian Billick. Brian Bilk had toxic differential which was explosives and turnovers, not just turnover differential. So that's something I've always kind of looked at. But no, I, I really do think that's the way to make a run because especially when you feel in playoff time more than anything how clamped down these defenses are. They're so keyed in on everything you want to do. Watch what the Seahawks did against the Rams offense. One of the truly one of the best offenses we've seen in 20 years, like really of the new millennium. And every third and fourth down they couldn't do anything. They had negative yards on third down for almost the entire game. I, I did not check to update that stat at the end of the game they had negative yards and that's because you had to get it on first and second down. They're so tight to what formations you want to use. Motions you want to use what they expect you to run that getting an explosive on 1st and 2nd down, then we don't have to be perfect on 3rd down, then we don't HAVE to be perfect for 5 plays in a row. So it's just, it's always been important, but it kind of got a little away from that because I think it came became a little bit easier as far as just to be efficient. And now I think as the, you know, we see how these defenses play very top down, very keep everything under, underneath you. Being able to break that bubble is just the key to everything. It opens up so much. You have to threaten. It has to be a valid threat. So it's like three point shooting. That's always why I kind of compared it to in basketball.
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It's interesting now because I think that we used to live in a world where there are a lot of explosives in a single high defensive universe. If you go back to like the 2017, 2018 Rams and it's funny watching because the Bears are really an explosive offense, right? But the Bears weren't that explosive throwing the ball against the Rams. And I think it's because where are you seeking out these explosives with the new offensive world that we play in. Go look at where the Niners Go look at the Niners offense against the Seahawks. I know they were banged up by the time we played those two games, but where the Niners want to throw the ball over the middle of the field, intermediate areas of the field that as defenses are structured like the Seahawks are, it's going to be really difficult to create explosives there. Well, where did the Rams get their explosive against the Seahawks? You can still, despite what some people on the Internet say, win one on one outside the number shots against quarters, that, that, that in this universe is still possible. And that's where the Rams were getting all of their explosive plays. And so where it used to be, could you hit these explosive 18 yard intermediate crossers off play action? Now explosives are still available to you. You just have to access them in different parts of the field. And the team that could do that against Seattle is the only team that was consistently able to string together explosive plays against them.
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C
Other thing I would just mention is we do have different rules now, right. And so going back 10 years, the average field position starting a drive is up three yards from where it was a decade ago. And so with the new touchback rules, with the desire to kick off and play a kickoff as opposed to a touchback coming out at the 20, you only need one explosive to score. And you combine that with the fact that you have field goal kickers who can hit from 55, from 60 teams who are willing to attempt that, you know, increase in fourth down rate and the successes on fourth down, like you really only need one explosive play, not like a 40 yard explosive. You might be able to get a 20 yard explosive, maybe get one first down, maybe not even a first down after that. And that's in field goal range. So you might get three out of that one before, you know, you needed more than that. You needed an explosive and a couple more first downs to score. And so it does. You know, even getting that one explosive, even getting an extra three points that maybe you wouldn't have gotten a decade ago just because of where you were starting on the field adds up and makes a difference over the long run.
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I like this a lot because I think that when you get to the other side of the field, you're more prone to go for it on fourth down. So if you get one explosive play now you're in a spot where like there is a larger percentage. I'm sure the numbers would bear this out if you looked at them, Barton. Well, like if you're on the other side of the 50, your chances of scoring a touchdown increase not only because you're closer to the end zone, but because you're more prone to go forward and use all four downs in those situations. And another thing, I think in talking to defensive coordinators for a show we did earlier this year about the kicking changes, multiple guys I talked to were like, I used to be in a spot where on the other side of the 50, I'm playing with a lot of cushion. I don't want to give up explosives because I want them to string drives together. Well, if you're starting on the 35, that's not the mindset anymore because if you're stringing together a couple, couple first downs, you're already in opponent territory. So now I think there's an easier chance to hit explosives based on defensive mindset because of where the drives are starting. So there's just so many things that into this, it's. It's fascinating.
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It really is. No, I. And it even comes down to receiver size because now you're seeing more zone and the ways that you beat so much cover two and cover six, like the Seahawks. Seahawks are more cover six and quarters. But like these two high defenses is dig routes and stuff over the middle and, and those big routes like you said on the outside against quarters. But that all requires kind of size to like win those spots because there's just so much tighter coverage somewhere. Areas where there's just a lot of muck that you have to throw to. When it was the single high world, when everybody was running Legion of Boom stuff. All right, if it's three match, it's like you said, it was those over crossing routes. That's speed. That's more of a speed thing because you're running away from a guy as opposed to catching and throwing to areas that are tight with a guy over the top and underneath. It's just. Yeah, it's a. It's a really cool thing. And actually I have some Segways from here to my point. But no, this is everything. This is. Explosives are always going to be the name of the game, but it just cranks up even more because defenses are going like, I bet you can't do that eight times in a row. I bet. I bet you can't do it eight times in a row. And that's what they. They're winning right now. I would actually say.
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You hear how excited he is, Barnwell, about the idea that we're bringing back six, four perimeter receivers. The fact that that's going to be the back in vogue again. You can just hear the glee in his voice that we're treading back that direction.
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We took care.
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We're getting Carolina Panthers fan Nate Tice talking about the.
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They have a receiver room after my own heart. It's. It's. It's the best I know. I mean, shoot. The Rams try to trade for Tetro McMillan. So Im Devonte, Adams, Puka Nakua, McMillan. Oh, this is exactly what I wanted.
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All right, Nick, let's hear your first one. If you have something that's an extension of that, that's great. But it sounds like you have stuff that's in the same general vicinity I do.
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Well, I'm curious how I want to segue here because I have two points I could. But I'll go with this. And this is more of talking about size and everything and talking about skill players and everything. And I know tight ends have been a big discussion of this this whole season. Then 13% all that I went. Why tight ends?
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Not.
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Not a question, just the letter Y tight ends is how important those guys are is basically. Basically with the personnel defenses with guys that are valid blockers. It used to be can a tight end be a valid receiver? And that's more. Yeah, every. All of these guys are because it's just how they have to play in college. Now it's more how can you play in line, how can you play more snaps and impact more snaps and something I've just, I always just love to see the kind of the, the seesaw of this about where what kind of guys are valuable? I mean the Bears, Colson, Loveland, this is why I preferred him over war that process because I was like, yeah, I really like Warren, but Loveland down the road is going to be able to impact more snaps. And if you look at these teams, the final four teams, AJ Barner, of course, great blocker, good re good enough receiver where he's a valid receiver. He's the guy that, you know, you can't just wash away. Parkinson, of course, and the Rams tight ends, but I would say Parkinson most importantly because he is a blocker and a valid receiver as well. The Patriots guys, this is kind of, it kind of tapers off. But they at least have two guys that are playable. I wouldn't say they're great blockers and Hooper and Henry, but they're playable. And they're not negatives. They're not negatives. They don't, they don't have to be hidden. And that's what again, this is again to my point. And then Trotman with the, with the Broncos, very valid blocker. Adam Trotman and, and I, you can feel a little bit of deficiencies there, but at least he can be run behind. And if you look on Next gen stats, strong side runs, so runs towards the tight end are have a 43% success rate and negative 0.04 EPA per carry. That's the highest it's been in Next gen stats history in 2017, which is the furthest you can of like you can go to 2016, but 2017, the numbers are a little bit better. That number was 37% success rate and negative 0.09 EPA per carry. So and this, and this is just a, a, a not just a philosophical thing, but also the personnel that's being used. Defenses are not only using nickel and dime, so it's making these tight ends that are 245, 248, those guys can be wise. Now when 15, 20 years ago. Oh, you're a receiving tight end. You're not big enough to handle DNS because this is my last little point here. Average weight of NFL DNS and outside linebackers. So this is true. Media minimum 200 snaps this year is 263 and a half pounds. 10 years ago in 2015 was 275 pounds. It's dropped over 10 pounds. And so now that's just opened up more possibilities for these guys and I think the impact that they can bring and not just the final four teams. Josh Oliver got paid this year. John Bates from Washington got paid this year. We talked about Jackson Hawes and Middle East.
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Yeah.
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Buffalo Bills. Yeah. Another team.
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And this isn't going away for their 6L stuff from last year. Like moving towards as opposed to ever so out.
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B
Yeah.
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But why, why I think this is so fun is that the six offensive line stuff from last year is already outdated.
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B
Right.
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Because. Because it, it's, it's. And it's so funny how fast.
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B
It's like half a page.
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It's like half a page because now.
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It'S not, it's not outdated. They're just. It's like you can get to it in different ways.
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Well, I think a lot of teams did it this year. More teams did it this year. But then you saw the best offenses already move past it. Right. And so if you kind of tapped into that this year, you were already like a half step behind because. And I think it's for a few different reasons. One, if you have three tight ends on the field like the Rams do, all of those guys are valid receivers. Despite the fact that we saw probably like 10 throws to sixth offensive lineman this season on accident, which were some of my favorite plays of the entire year. Like those guys are not Packers, Bears.
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One was one of my canard was one of my favorite plays of the entire season. They threw one to Benedict in the.
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In the divisional rounds.
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I mean like 18 miles an hour on the route.
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Having those guys, all three of them can catch passes is just such a huge advantage. And the Bills did the exact same thing, but the other part of it. And Nate, I think this plays so well into your point about the smaller defensive ends. There are two games that are coming to mind to me when I think about how these multi tight end teams are trying to run the ball out of those sets. If you think about the Bills game against the Broncos in the playoffs and then the way the Rams attack the Seahawks, they're getting those tight ends on the move and they're trying to cave in that side or cave out that side. You're just trying to move that perimeter defender and get space out there. And so that is impossible in part because of tight ends and because tight ends just move better. Right. You can get those guys on the move. They're just better blockers in space. And so that attacking that specific area, we're Just trying to get like this collective movement on these edge players to kind of blow that side out and try to find explosives there. That's something that just kept coming up over and over again this season when you watch it. And I feel like that's a combination of the tight ends being on the field and those edge defenders just getting a little bit smaller.
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You're retaining like a certain level of plausible deniability. Right. I think there's this push and pull on both sides of the football of we want to hide what our intentions are post snap for as much as possible. And you can do that with. On defense, we see teams spinning their safeties, we see teams providing different looks and teams are more aggressive about that than they used to be. And I think on offense, one of the ways you do that, obviously you can do it with scheme and we'll talk about a lot of other ways, but you can do that with personnel. And so in a league where you want to be running the ball more often, where you're being incentivized on a defensive structure to run the ball more often, like being in multi tight end groupings, being in. Even if you're playing 11, even if you're playing with one to nine on the field, as long as you have a tight end who can block like, it is such a difference maker. And so this isn't like some, again, genius point. It's pretty obvious, but it does. I think it is worth saying I have another one I'm going to get to later on that's kind of in the same vein, but just sort of like this idea of, you know, you're opening up the possibilities and leaving the opposing team with fewer tells for what you want to do.
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That's it.
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As you're lining up.
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It's a tendency thing and that's what's. So I have a point here. It says like, defenders are smaller, but defenses are smarter than ever. Like ever, ever. And I easily can say that. And just when you feel them, playoff time especially. And these staffs are so good, they know your tendencies. Like, I mean, to a T. Who's on the field, where they're aligned, where are the odds that you're going to do something again? This is like a rock, paper, scissors. Yeah. You might not do it a hundred percent of the time, but if I know that so and so is in line 80% of the time, they don't run that to his direction. Dalton Kincaid might be my best example.
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C
All right.
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If he's attached to the formation, they're not running right here.
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C
It's.
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B
It's either play action, they're passing or it's an rpo. And. But then defenses are so good now. Used to be able to get away with that, but then, now, then it becomes the smart offensive coaches play off of that. Like Jake Bobo Touchdown. And the Seahawks. I know that's a receiver, but also checkdowns. And how offensive coaches use these guys has been weaponized. You, you talked about caving in, putting those guys on the move. That's been, I think, the genius of what the Shanahan guys called the Zorro concept, where a guy's emotion and kicks it out. That was a necessity because these tight ends couldn't block the tight. The defensive ends across from them. And so let's give them some help. And now you can see that kind of popularized the checkdowns the Broncos use and other teams. The packers kind of popularized this where the guy chips and then a tight end releases. We talked about this barn while we texted about the Steelers doing it, where they chip and the guy releases. And then there's a swing route right there. So even the guys that are might be, oh, this guy's just. I would just make up a guy. Josh Oliver's on the field. Okay. He's not going to catch a pass. Well, now he's getting weaponized as a weed blocker. And now we can't just tee off on that. That this is actually a pass play they can get to. And on top of it, to bring up to your guys first point, talking about, like how aggressive coaches are and where everything's scoring range is. Third downs have become second downs in some instances. So a third and five. I could run 12 personnel with my wide tight end. A guy that's not a receiver because it's technically almost a rundown, not run down, but more like a second and long than what used to be a third and long. And I think that's another thing. So those downs become more like these guys are on the field more because those downs are more live downs for them. So it's just this, all of it kind of tying together. And I just think that receiving tight ends hit a kind of a ceiling and now the blocking aspect of it is becoming more priority and become more of a valuable commodity for these guys.
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C
Yeah. And then if you are approaching third and five and saying, okay, we can present the threat of running the football doesn't mean you have to run the football. Just because you can have a plausible deniability of we can come up with 12 personnel and just run duo on third and five because we're going to run on fourth down as well. Now you can open up explosives off of play action on third and five for us. Before that was thought typically a down where you might have the opportunity to spike an explosive, you were playing to the sticks.
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B
The Rams go 12 personnel on third and five with Parkinson, Ferguson and Adams and Nakua and they could run anything. And you have to, you have to defend it. Now it's not third and five how it was ten years ago. It's like, all right, pass thousand percent pass here, guys. All right, here comes the blitz. They might just run duo on us, run all over us like that. It's very cool to see how these teams are getting to it now.
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A
It's funny you guys talking about this idea of, you know, defense is being able to hide what they want to do and their intentions and then offense is trying to do the same. That to me, and this isn't one of my points because it doesn't really fit the Broncos, but it fits the Rams and the Seahawks 100%. The reintroduction of high play action rates this season, specifically by teams like the Rams, where the Rams didn't run play action four years ago and they went to the super bowl and now they have the highest play action rate in the game again. And so the reason they went away from play action is because as defensive structures changed, the ways that you would access play action with those crossers became less effective. Well, now they've gone back to it without trying to access those routes. I think in large part because in my mind this is how I've kind of bucketed it. Play action offense is the same as starting in two high shells on defense. It's just a way to be able to do anything. It's just a way to hide your intentions. And so even if you're not accessing the same types of explosive shots off play action you were seven, eight years ago, the the confusion you create by lining up under center and using play action, you're doing the exact same thing to defenses that defenses have tried to offenses over the last five years. And so the more things you can do to credibly provide the defense with three different options before the play, the better. And more and more offenses, I think went back to that world this season after we trended much more to a spread out shotgun. Even like the two teams that did it that, that I think were the teams that like, oh man, like this is canary in the coal mine stuff. We should be Paying attention to this, when the Rams and the Niners stopped using under center play action, that's when the league changed for like three years. And the fact that they're now back there, I think really shows us what that cycle has looked like.
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C
Yeah, I am. I'm in the middle of watching every single Seahawks play action stop from this year for the super bowl preview. That's what I stopped doing to do this podcast. Yeah. Rams number one under center this year. Seahawks number two in terms of under center rate. Patriots nine, Broncos 16.
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B
Yeah. And the fakes. Just speaking of which, you're talking about, and I think offhand someone told me this, so I don't know if I can like, use the quote, but they're. They. I know the Shanahan guys, and I think even Kyle specifically said, like, you, you can't run play action how you used to, because now everyone does what Jim Schwartz used to do. Just tee off on it. Have the guy. How Drake May got sacked against the Broncos on a bootleg. So just a traditional fake zone bootleg outside the pocket and got sacked 10 years ago. No defense end would have been doing that and running straight at him.
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A
That's.
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B
That's totally changed how defenders are taught to play because everybody's running that. So now all the fakes, if you really watch the Rams, but Seahawks too, it's not zone fakes. It's duo fakes. It's downhill.
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C
Yes.
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B
Straight play action. It's a different type of play action that they're using now. And the guys. It's so cool that the guys that kind of popularized the old one are now doing the one that's not really their offense. That's Sean Payton's stuff. That's Eric or El. That's what my dad like, that's what they grew up with and what they did. That's what the Cowboys and Dak Prescott have been doing for 10 years now. But now it's kind of to see the guys that were the zone guys doing the duo gap fakes now. So that's literally what I'm charting.
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C
I'm literally charting, you know, gap gap zone runs on play action and how often they're going out of gap schemes. And they can still get to, like, the boot stuff if they're faking off duo. Like, it's not like you can't get to that stuff just because you're not running outside zone. Just.
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A
You have to account for the edge defender now. Like just nakeds. We just don't see anymore. You have to account for them in some, yeah, even, and even the slices toward those guys, which is exactly what happened on the Patriots play you were talking about. Even that's not enough. Like you have to actually account for that guy and how you're protecting. And I think more and more teams are learning that. All right, let's take our first quick break and then I'm going to come back with my first one.
- [27:03]
C
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A
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- [28:18]
B
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A
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- [29:13]
B
So it's one of my points. So we're good. I went, I said defensive lineman. Yes.
- [29:19]
A
And I know it's almost like a truism when it comes to comes to professional football, but it is worth bringing back every year we do this. And I think the one small nuance to this one, that it has been coming for a couple years, but now I think we're kind of firmly there. I had a coach who I really respect and has a role in their team building process two years ago tell me I believe with my whole soul that interior defensive linemen are more valuable than edge rushers. He's like, I believe it like wholeheartedly now. I think we're getting there when it comes to those guys and how they affect the game. And so if you look at these four teams specifically just on a general level, according to next gen stats, the Broncos, Rams and Seahawks all finished top six in pressure rate. The Patriots were 10th, but they were had a 41% pressure rate with Milton Williams on the field. So when he was out there they were better than 10th, but they're still all four teams finishing the top 10 in pressure rate. But then you take it one step further and obviously some of these teams have really good edge rushers. Right? Jared Verse, Nick Bonito. The Seahawks have 12 guys, whatever. But if you look at the interior players on these teams, I'm looking at the PFF pressure numbers right now. Top five, number one, Zach Allen. Number two, Kobe Turner. Number three, Leonard Williams.
- [30:40]
B
Yep.
- [30:41]
A
Four, Jeffrey Simmons. Five, Chris Jones. Six, Christian Barmore. Seven, Byron Murphy nine, Milton Williams. So we have eight guys in the top 10 in total interior pressures played for the four teams that finished in the Final Four. And so if you, you need to be able to create that with four guys. And now I think maybe more than any time I can remember since I started paying attention to this, those guys need to be on the interior. And just think about going back to last year. Milt Williams was a part of this discussion a year ago. Chris Jones, who was fifth on that list is a part of that discussion a year ago. So now just having those guys where there just isn't that much you can do to take them out of the game and having them be a linchpin of what your team looks like feels like we are, we have come to a place and live in a world where that is a non negotiable part of being one of these teams. That's around till the end.
- [31:33]
B
No, absolutely. I, I, my point was this I said defensive lineman. Yes. And I. I think we did one where. I think we did. Robert, you and I did like kind of lessons of super bowl finalists or like, what the.
- [31:46]
A
Like the non negotiables you need to win a Super Bowl. What do. What does every super bowl winner have for like the last 10 years? Years.
- [31:51]
B
And one was you have to have a guy that can get five or more pressures for you.
- [31:55]
A
And.
- [31:56]
B
And that's always stood out to me and I think it's still a truism. But now I think you need the Monstars out there. You need a motley crew out there. However you want to put it. I. I had my note because I said defensive lineman. Yes. Is that it's not just pass rushers or edge rushers, I should say those are important, but you have to have a variety pack of defensive linemen. And you look at. It's almost like, especially when it comes to playoff time, it's that ability to pivot. Like, okay, they're taking away this. They're taking away this or this matchup. We need to hun. They have a guard that stinks. This guy is not good against speed. Anthony Bradford. Pardon?
- [32:28]
C
Anthony Bradford.
- [32:30]
B
Yes. This world comes from Bradford. Will Campbell, it's, you know, a little bit speedy, Bendy guys. And if you look, you mentioned. You said the 12 guys. The Seahawks have, I think all these teams. Broncos, Allen Roach, D.J. jones, John Franco, Myers, Nick Bonito, Jonathan Cooper, Patriots, Milton Barmore, Tonga, Chase on, who's actually been unbelievable. Chase On, I thought stunk a few years ago. And he's like, good now. He's good now.
- [32:57]
C
Apparently come from.
- [32:59]
B
Yeah, I know. Seahawks. Of course, they're guys. Murphy Williams, DeMarcus Lawrence, Nwosu, Derek Hall Boy Mafi Rams First Young Kobe, Turner Punaford, Braden Fisk. Why I'm bringing up all the names? Not just to like, show that I can look at our lads. It's more just to say, like, you can just throw any of these types of guys at you. One guy has to maul and hold up against the run because if you want to play a certain coverage shell, if we're doing all this rotation and we're doing all like. McDonald runs everything for the Seahawks defense. He can run everything on the back end because he has the front that can do what they need. Sometimes you need guys that hold up blocks. Sometimes you need gap shooters. Sometimes we need to slant. Sometimes all these defenses, they drop guys into coverage. So you need athletic guys that can drop into coverage as well. So it used to Just be who can shoot the gaps and get up field. And now it's like a whole new world. You need. Offensive lines are getting bigger, so you need guys that can maul, but you don't need the fat pluggers. You need guys that actually can do a little something too. We can move across the center space.
- [33:56]
A
So.
- [33:56]
B
And also just speaking to edge rushers and just kind of like how offense has gotten so good with tight ends and moving them around and kind of mitigating maybe any blocking deficiencies. Really good at helping out tackles. It's so much harder to help out a guard in a center. It's so like you can slide, you can everything but chip help. You have to just has to be so much more creative. And if you have guys that can val be valid and moving around, a lot harder to account for that than just lining up with four and going. Unless you're the freaking Texans, you know, like the. The Texans like can do it, but they're outlier, I think, to what more teams are doing now and having just a. Again a monsters that they can throw at offenses.
- [34:33]
A
I love you bringing up the Texans because I think this is something I've had to kind of rewire my brain about. And I would caution fans of teams to think about it this way as well. Like, if you're looking at what your team needs from a defensive line perspective in a given off season, don't just look at like the first line of the depth chart. It's like, oh, well, we have two defensive tackles and two defensive ends. You were talking hockey lines now.
- [34:53]
B
Yes.
- [34:53]
A
And. And the Seahawks specifically, I think are such a good indication of that because I crack jokes when it happened, but when they drafted like Byron Murphy in the first round and then signed to Marcus Lawrence this offseason was like, how many do you need?
- [35:05]
C
Right?
- [35:08]
A
And the answer is all of them. And Puna Ford too. Right? Like, the Rams defensive line was the best thing they had last year. And then the second, and I'll get to that in a second. The second biggest thing they do in free agency is go sign Puna Ford immediately. And so. So this is very much an Ocean's eleven. You think we need one more? You always need one more. When it comes to defensive lines now you always need one more. And I think these teams specifically are very good reminders of that.
- [35:34]
C
Do you think the Eagles influence matters here? Like, do you think teams saw what the Eagles did in the super bowl and we're like, yeah, we want eight. Like, four is not enough. We need six. We need. That is a classic Howie Roseman trope of, like, you know, he's trading for Robert Quinn at the deadline. When they have a stacked defensive line like that, that felt like maybe, you know, other teams have had deep defensive lines before, but it feels like the Eagles prioritizing that maybe a spread around the league a bit.
- [35:59]
A
It's funny because I think last year they actually stopped rotating them as much because that's a Fangio thing. And so it's like. It's kind of a weird, like, intermediate step where the Eagles used to be like that, and then under Fangio, they actually rotated less and then they won the Super Bowl. But I think this is more about just teams and their specific needs heading into the. In a given season. Like, Puna Ford is just the skill set the Rams needed, right?
- [36:21]
B
I think. Yeah.
- [36:22]
A
And again with the Seahawks, I think that they've just been so hell bent on trying to add as many different body types as they can. Like, though what Lawrence and NWUSU are versus and I know Hall's kind of calls very strong, but, like, mafe specifically, like, they're just such different types of players. And so to be able to have those four and be able to rotate them as much as you want to, like, I think it's just about options. And I also think. And Nate, I'm curious, like, the. The. The amount of stunting we see from the really good defensive lines and like, the different body types you need to fully unlock all of those things you want to do only increases the need to diversify the skill sets that you're adding to the room. And so I think that plays into it too.
- [37:01]
B
I. Yeah. If this were just my, like, clean point, I was going to open and say, like, I think everyone can take advice from Wu Tang Financial and diversify their bonds.
- [37:09]
C
Diversify your bonds.
- [37:10]
B
And it's kind of just the same exact thing. They diversify. Can't say the full quote, but they can diversify their. Their. Their full. Their full def. No, but I think it's just as we talk about defenses, defenses, they can tee off on you offenses, too. Like, look what happened to the 49ers defense. Oh, Huff's on the field all right. Running right at you.
- [37:30]
A
So.
- [37:31]
B
And like, that's why I think you. Yeah. That in a situation, Huff is useful. Once you get the playoff time against, AKA the best teams with, in theory, the best coaches, they're going to find that weakness and just pound away at it. And that's what's so cool about some of these Guys, go, oh, you got that? All right, here. Here's DeMarcus Lawrence. That's going to just tee off on you in fourth down.
- [37:49]
C
There's a reason have been a healthy scratch during the postseason last year.
- [37:53]
A
It's so funny that we used to think about that with offensive lineman. Right where we used to be like offensive linemen, you could weaponize against one guy. And now it feels like we're at a place where defensive linemen are in the same boat, where if you've got that one guy they can pick on, it's just going to be a problem. And so you need to make sure you don't have that one guy. And it's. I. I've never really thought about it that way, but clearly we've gotten to that place.
- [38:13]
C
Yeah. And if you think about the crustiest old school thing of all, the offensive linemen, there's no continuity. They're too young. They don't look at trading. If you that, okay, great. The way to attack them is to give them every possible look, force them to communicate, force them to pass stuff off, force them to deal with every twist, every slant, every stunt you can get. And you see, you know, I'm thinking about some of the weaker offensive. I mean, Dylan Parham, Jonah 7A and Miami, like guys, young guys who struggled in pass pro. Every week when I'd watch all the pressures, all the sacks, you would see them getting hit on twitch, you'd see them getting hit on stunts. And that is like, if you believe that as a coach, that is the thing that is like the table stakes for being a good defensive coach is just having every way possible to attack those guys.
- [39:00]
B
Watch what the Bears did to McClendon at right tackle, who actually was fine, but they went, this is the guy we're getting. They. You can tell the Bears coaches were, we're going to bring these saw pressures, you know, all the safety, the DB stuff, but they're like, that's the guy we're getting. And they gamed him up.
- [39:14]
A
And it.
- [39:14]
B
Yeah. Again, when you get these, it's so cool when you see it play out exactly probably how they intended going. And the mean way is they say, who's the fish? And that's what these defensive coaches do. And they go, oh, there's the fish. All right, we're going to just. I wait until we watch the Seahawks right guard next week. I think there's going to be so much movement on that right side, like from the Patriots front. But, like, that's exactly what these coaches do. And it's, yeah, again, cool to see play out.
- [39:39]
A
The. The Bears are such a great example here, though. And like, how it's not when you don't have enough because Dennis Allen threw just a almost perfect game at the Rams in that game, but when you have to go back to it too often, eventually they're going to get there. And so you can have this great, specific, bespoke defensive game plan where you're bringing all these pressures, but when you get to a place where you can't do it with four, eventually a good offense is going to beat you. And so I think that's where the little gaps are. All right, Barnwell, what's your next one here?
- [40:09]
C
Ooh, okay. I have a very big picture one. It might not come together well in my head it makes sense. I'll let you guys decide if that is the case. So I think sort of like, if I'm having a really broad picture, like meta, this is what smart teams in the NFL are doing versus teams who are less smart. It's not new, but I think they're focusing on it more than in years past. I think you're seeing teams really drill down on, trying to reduce the complexity of the opposing team's playbook, try to take as much out of it as possible, try to drill down to the stuff that they can predict that is more reliable, where there's a smaller amount of things teams can get to and then taking advantage of that. And so that happens on both sides of the football. On defense, you know, I think the thing you see it with as an example are some pressures, right? Like presenting certain looks that, you know, teams are going to have only a couple of protections for us only. So many things you can do for, you know, an overlook at the stop and then knowing, okay, if we're getting a full slide in the situation, 90% of the time we're going to have a call that's going to take advantage of a full slide on offense. And I think this is the one that leads more into a 2025 thing, or maybe more of a Focus on 2025 thing. It's okay. What can we do to get out of exotics? What can we do to get teams out of all of the things they want to throw at us that we can't possibly do? What can we do to eliminate and reduce the number of things the defense can do? And so that can happen in a lot of different ways. You can do that with motion, although I don't think it's unimportant. You can do it with personnel. And the Rams 13 is a great example because there's only so many things you can do to deal with 13 personnel. I think six offensive lineman is kind of the same thing. So when I said earlier 6 ol 13 personnel, like there's differences, but it's still that idea of, okay, you're not dealing with this on a regular basis. You can only run certain things. It's gonna eliminate or limit what you can do defensively in terms of your personnel, in terms of what you can call, how you can fit the run. But then the things that came to mind for me this year, two things. Number one, formation into boundary, which Mays, when Mays was predicting what I was gonna say before the show, called that one out, which seems impossible to me. But the idea that you can have, you know that you're putting. You're putting the strong side of your offense into the boundary as opposed to the field. So less space to work with. You're limiting the hunts of play. There's just not as many calls for that stuff. You're asking defenses to communicate in a small slot, but you're asking them to deal with four strong concepts. You're asking them to deal with fast to the flat stuff. Screens. There's opportunities for picks and rubs. Seahawks, Broncos, Patriots, all in the top 10 in fib this year. Seahawks number two. The other one nubbed tight end. Kind of the same idea of what can we do to account for this? We're overloading a side of the field. Are you changing your front? Are you giving us good run looks? We want to run outside all four teams in the top 12 in nub. Tight end users. Seahawks 2, Broncos 7, Patriots 8, Rams 12. There's a lot of different ways you can do this. These are not just like perfect examples, but just this idea of there's so many things we can possibly see on a weekly basis. What can we do to eliminate as many of those as possible, get the most predictable response we can and then take advantage of that predictable response spots.
- [43:19]
B
Yeah. No, it's. Yeah. Coverage checks is the. That's the. That's the golden thread you're trying to pull as a coach. Like, or as far as an offensive coach is if I do this is what Shanahan's so good at. If I shift like this, get into this formation, they don't bump, they don't do this. But like, if I can go like empty might be the best way I can put this. If I go into empty and I know that you're Only getting to two things. As opposed to like this is how you used to be able to get Fangio was you go into empty. Especially if you go in base personnel, like 12, 21 or something. Go empty quarters. You know, like I. I know what I'm getting every single time. And they. They don't have the personnel to like make that tough. Like, yeah, if you have Cooper Dean sawing guys off in the slot. But if the year before that. Oh, man, who'd they fire? They brought in Patricia. But the year before that. Thank you, Sean Desai. Nip Blash from the past. But no, it is when they were running that coverage, same exact thing. They didn't have the horses. So it was like anytime they. Anybody that played the Eagles that year, empty. And because it was just so predictable. This was how he used to be able to get spags was it would to make him more simplistic. All these teams have so many creepers and simulated looks. It's like you're playing Rex Ryan every fricking week now that this is. You have to. So just dovetailing off what you're saying, Barnwell. Yeah, I think that's what. That's the goal. Like that's what you're trying to find every single week. And I think teams are getting better at that. And I'm just talking about the offensive side, but yeah, defensively you can do that as well too. But offensively, that is something you really see teams trying to do more and more. The one by three nub stuff is. Is. Is definitely see that.
- [44:49]
A
Yeah.
- [44:49]
B
God, I would just. I just. The Patriots did it a couple weeks ago against the Broncos do a ton of it.
- [44:54]
A
The Seahawks do a ton of it.
- [44:55]
B
I mean, Rams have done it a ton. Like that was the. You brought up the. Their first super bowl run with Stafford. That was what they did every play. It was empty. One by three, it was. Tyler Higby was the lone receiver, like all the time. Yeah.
- [45:06]
A
And Seattle's such a good example of this. Like you think about. All right, we. We want to be in very specific things to make you very specific. The Seahawks, when. If you get the percentages of their drop backs into base defense this year, I believe it was the highest in the league or it was definitely up there. The only reason it wasn't the highest number of total base drop backs is because they didn't throw the ball very often. But then the Seahawks use a ton of empty. Like one of my favorite play calls of the entire game against the Rams, they come out in 21 personnel and go out and get into empty. And so the Seahawks were very good at this, where they were like, we're going to make you just live in very specific buckets offensively. And it's why I just am so impressed with the job that Clint Kubiak did all year, where it's a combination of play calling field, but also just having a really, really good sense of how we're dictating the game to opposing offenses and then their defense or defenses, and then their defense refuses to be dictated to. There's like nothing you can do to make us do what we don't want to do.
- [46:00]
C
And then you flip it back to our prior point, though. Like, how do you counter that if teams are getting you out of all the exotics and sims you want to run, have a bunch of shit kickers up front, like, that is the solution. You can not. You're not going to be able to get the Seahawks to check out of having a bunch of dudes up front that you can't block like that. That is inevitably the solution. Which brings it back to the oldest thing of, hey, control the line of scrimmage and you win games, which you don't need to hear if you're listening to this podcast. But it's at the end of the day.
- [46:24]
A
That's why it's true.
- [46:25]
B
It still is true. I know. And that's also the fallacy, I think. Obviously, Robert, you and I talked about Brandon Staley till we're blue in the face, but that was the downfall of that defense in LA was they never once invested in the split. And that might have been Tom Tesco's issue, might have been stale. Like, whoever it was, that was the Achilles heel of that whole regime. They didn't know what made their defense, which is you have to have ass kickers up front to hold everything down. If you're going to be in quarters every time, good quarterbacks are going to figure it out, good coaches are going to figure out. You know, it's frustrating to know exactly what the defense is in and you still can't beat it because your OI can't block it or your guys can't win down the field. So I always just. That always sticks with me because then I watch the Seahawks, I'm like, oh, my God, look at these light boxes. Just run duo on them. And there's Leonard Williams teeing off on a guy, DeMarcus Lawrence suplexing a guy. And I'm like, oh, yeah, okay. All right. Yeah, I guess you got to Trick him up a little bit.
- [47:19]
A
Well, so. But it's so funny to me because you look at the first half of last season for Seattle, they wanted to live this way, and they were getting gashed just over and over and over again. And then the two biggest differences. The two biggest differences between that version of. Of the Seahawks in the first half of last year in this version is they trade for Ernest Jones. And Byron Murphy is a very different player now than he was last season. And so his ability to hold up in those looks, you talk about transforming the spine of the defense. They did that. Those two moves transform what the spine of the defense feels like for Seattle, and that's why they're allowed to live this way. All right, Nate, what's your next one?
- [47:55]
B
Oh, man, I have two. I will go with, man. I'll go with this one. Special team games. Don't forget about it. Yeah, I know that you are. You know, as a Bears fan, you're all about the four phases, Robert. You know, the four. The fourth phase is the fans. Right. In Chicago.
- [48:14]
A
I get on our show, Dave always gives me for not wanting to talk about special teams, and it's. Maybe it's because I'm scarred from having special teams be too important in my life. At one point, it was the highlight.
- [48:24]
B
Of a Bears game.
- [48:25]
A
Exactly.
- [48:27]
B
I will say, my couple years as being a Bears fan, it was very fun to go to a game and have the entire stadium stand up for a punt return. And, like. And they played. Oh, my God, now I'm forget. Oh, God, no, I know the song I'll think of in a second. But they would play a song before, and it would really get everyone amped up. Well, they did Soldier Boy a little bit, too. But we got Schooler for the Patriots. Unbelievable as a gunner. Seven tackles as a gunner.
- [48:50]
A
So we're getting to punt gunners on this show. I. I shouldn't be surprised. Surprise whatsoever. It was inevitable.
- [48:56]
B
We're in the fifth iteration. I gotta turn over every stone. This one. It's gonna be specialties. This is actually my point number one. This is the first thing I put down last night. I was like, all right, going on tafs. All right, all right. What's one? All right. We'll knock everyone's socks off. Special teams.
- [49:10]
A
All right.
- [49:11]
B
But the Seahawks have a guy, Pritchett, 34 times this year, he hit 20 miles an hour or more. And the Seahawks special teams, I think, is obviously one of the best units we've seen this year, and it was. But it's a. It's a key component to their success when it's classic. I mean, we just joked about the Bears teams, but it's classic. Amazing defense, amazing special teams. That's how you can survive Sam Darnold having his bad moments. That's how you can survive having a center botch a snap. Kenneth Walker maybe doing something wrong. Like that's how you can survive. That is by the other two phases, winning. And I know where this whole show is almost like the old coaches were right kind of thing. But it's like it kind of is funny how it just Football is football. Like, the DVOA ranks don't really bear this out, but like, you know, Seahawks were second, but the other teams are kind of middling, mostly off of kicks and stuff. But punt returns. Seahawks were or Patriots were first in punt return. EPA Seahawks were third, Broncos eighth, Rams 23rd.
- [50:03]
C
But the Rams don't count.
- [50:05]
A
Yeah, the Rams are not involved.
- [50:08]
C
They're the exception that proves the rule.
- [50:12]
A
Teams.
- [50:12]
B
Yes, you can't just wave it away. I the year and a half ago or two years ago now, the Rams finished the draft and they didn't have a long snapper kicker or punter on their roster. And I was like, this is going.
- [50:24]
C
To cost me fantasy football drafts.
- [50:27]
B
And no linebackers either. At least that doesn't show up at all. But yards per punt return, including the playoffs Sea Extra 2nd Patriots 3rd Broncos 7th Patriots 20 or Rams 23rd Kickoff returned EPA Seahawks 3rd Rams 7th Patriots 10th Broncos 21st the Seahawks ranked 1st an opponent average field position after their kickoffs and they ranked third in their own starting field position after their own kickoff returns. And again, this is hidden yardage. The Seahawks had five special teams touchdowns this year, including the playoffs. Patriots had three. Those are two super bowl teams. I could just leave it at that. But it's just definitely felt it a lot more this year. And I know the kickoff rules have changed. I think returners are becoming they get prioritized just a little bit more. I remember talking with Dane about this a year or two ago. Um, but they become a little bit more and actually I think punters have become a little bit more valuable to me and just the sense that yeah, they might be punting for midfield a little bit more, but coffin corners matter again as far as just booming it, um, weather and I know more teams are going to be in a dome in about five, 10 years where it's like going to be like 28 teams in a dome. So maybe not as much. But I was just that Broncos Patriots game Just stood out to me so much. I was like we think about quarterback arms cutting through this win and cutting through all that. What about the kickers and punters in games like this this matters just as much. So I don't know. It just I, I think my point, I think my overarching point would be don't ignore it and how much it can turn into a weapon. In a wide open playoffs, in a wide open NFC or AFC wide open season. Don't ignore a phase that can win you the game. And I, I think the teams that didn't, you can feel them kind of like oh they just popped this. Now they're in midfield and scoring position, yada yada.
- [52:05]
C
Yeah. The only reason that the Broncos had a chance of scoring in the second half of that game is because Blake barring heard a couple of really bad punts. He got them in true range. It was an opportunity where the Patriots second team was not very good and that gave the Broncos a shot. I had elite return man on my list. The Seahawks get Rashid Shahid. He was so good. Marcus Jones for the Patriots, phenomenal Marvin Mims over the last couple of years. Maybe the best return guy in football over that two year span. And for the Rams just have an ellipsis and said wish you had one of those guys, don't you? And I think this is a league. We're scoring this down from where it was five years ago. Number of plays are down from where they were five years ago. Field position after kickoffs has improved from where it was five, 10 years ago. Having the ability to get either a touchdown or again an explosive play that in itself puts you in field goal range or flips. Field position matters then for punters given the given that you can get the ball at the 35 now the average distance for a after getting the ball back is on the 30 yard line. Your only chance of opposing stopping the opposing team and having them start deep inside their own 10 yard line now is on a punt or by failing on fourth down. Like you're not going to get the touchback to the 20, you're not going to get kick returns to the 22 and then a holding penalty. It happens occasionally but that's really rare. And so that's the only time you're going to get that opportunity to do that. And so this is the only way I think field position it, it ma like it matters less in the traditional ways but it does matter in a different way now maybe than it did 20, 30 years.
- [53:37]
B
That's yeah that maybe Is. Yeah, that's kind of why I kind of looked at it too. Think of it in first downs. Like if you get a guy 15 yards shorter or close, closer or further away, that's another. We just talked about explosives. That's one more explosive they have to get. Or that's three more successful plays they have to get. Like, like you start thinking in first downs, then I'm like, oh my God, 22 yards. That's two first downs. They don't have to get now or they do have to get now and those.
- [53:59]
A
It's funny because I think some people would be like, well, how does that play into teams going for it more on fourth down? Well, it's. You have to weigh how many more first downs you need. But also the possessions. Both things can be true at the same time. Like it still is a game of possessions, but the difference in field position does matter. The possessions matter more. But the field position also is important. And so Barnwell, you, you saying the scoring is down, possessions are down, plays are down. That brings me to kind of my next one here. Who is defense back? Do. Do we have to reconsider what this group usually looks like? And I'll, I'll come from my own perspective on this. I. My worldview when it comes to how I think NFL teams should operate is dictated in part by what the makeup of the final four teams has looked like since I started covering the NFL. If you go back to like 20, I've always done it since 2014 or 2015. I think it was because of the first time I did the exercise. It was 10 years. But if you go back to like 2015, the only team in the Final Four that did not finish top 10 in EPA per play on offense was the 2015 Broncos. That was it. Every other team team that played in the championship games was a top 10 offense by EPA for play in that given season. This year, The Seahawks were 13th and the Broncos were 10th. And if you look at some other metrics, The Broncos were 15th in offensive DVOA. The the Seahawks were 14th and weighted offensive DVOA. One year is not a trend, right? There is a chance that this was just kind of a strange season and that over time prioritizing your offense will still be the way to make sure that you are a championship caliber team. And that's always what I've believed. It's why I believe in offensive minded head coaches. It's why I'd always go that way. Because I think if I had to choose, I would always try to make sure I had the fifth best offense in the league every single year. We'll figure the rest out. Are we in a place where defenses have caught back up to offenses enough that it might be time to reconsider whether that is a non negotiable thing thing or is the gap between the importance of offense and the important defense started to shrink a little bit? I don't know but it's. I, to me it's a question worth.
- [56:12]
B
Asking A A line that you use that I always like is who holds the pen last. And I feel like more defenses are holding that pen last than offenses right now. Not saying everybody. I would say maybe if we're looking at when offenses were just crushing it because everyone was was trying to run man coverage at cover three ten years ago, eight years ago, I thought you know, majority of the offenses were taking it to most of the defensive coordinators like I would say like 22 of the offenses and there's maybe 10 defensive coordinators that were worth their weight. I would say now it's almost flipped and I, I think we hit a, you know, McVeigh's McVeigh and Shanahan's Shanahan. But as far as like the auxiliary guys for maybe that tree, like maybe they've hit a ceiling with what they can get away with until and I think there's a we're hit of a ceiling and we're going to see some innovation. Already seen a little bit right now as far as. But it's kind of the innovation is to going going old school. You know, I think the Bears are the best example of that with Ben Johnson and everything. And I think you see more Sean Peaton. I, I call Sean Payton offenses but more of that at you offense and play action game where we see a little bit more of that becoming invoked. So I wouldn't say it's like I, I say defenses have an advantage right now. I say defenses. We talked about defensive lines. They're ahead of offensive lines league wide. There's more of them, there's more pass catchers. DBs are the best they've ever been. The linebackers are the fastest they've ever been and I think coordinators much more creative on defense. I just made the joke a little bit earlier that I was like it's like going against Ruck Ryan every week and that's because I'm just, it used to just be like all right, Dick LeBeau and Rex Ryan and the other guys. You kind of know what you're getting, you know, quarters cover two, cover three. Now it's like 26 teams running all these funky blitzes on first down and simulated and creepers and stuff. So I will say that there's more maybe defensive innovation that's caught up than where they're, where we're at with offense. But having said all that, I kind of see, I'm seeing some things with offenses and what do offenses do? They copy. It's a copycat league. So they're going to watch the Bears, they're going to watch the Rams. So I think we're going to see more of this kind of, you know, maybe trickle out a little bit. They always, they always catch up. A team always catch. They always catch up. Some side always catches up.
- [58:18]
C
Well, the league, the league will just give the offense the advantage by changing the rules if the.
- [58:22]
A
Maybe that's it. I'll just rely on legends on the line.
- [58:25]
B
He's doing nothing right now, right?
- [58:28]
C
Bill pollian is not 100% sure that.
- [58:31]
A
Change the offensive rule because I feel like you, I feel like you, you will like throw cold water on this for me where it's just like a.
- [58:37]
C
Little bit of cold water on it.
- [58:38]
A
Because I'm ready for you to. Because again, this like it shakes my principles to my core to consider this as an option. But I think that this year specifically, it's, it's made me want to go back and be like, all right, let's, let's actually think about how true this is. So where do you land on this?
- [58:54]
C
Something very funny about like the lifelong Bears fan being like, yeah, maybe defense really matters.
- [59:00]
B
Maybe, maybe I don't want this offense.
- [59:02]
C
I want my back. You get your first good offense in 30 years and you're like, I don't shoot out yucky.
- [59:10]
A
I think it's, I think it's probably why I, I prioritize the offense as much as I have because it's like I know how hard it is to live the other way. And so, but I, that's one thing where again, over the last like 10ish years, I think really since the McVeigh version of the NFL came to, to be you, Nate, you guys know this. I, I, that is one have been one of my like, I am unwavering in this. If I'm hiring a head coach, he is going to be in my offensive play car. That is going to happen. I'm not, I am not getting off that and watching what Mike McDonald has done and the fact that we have two defensive minded head coaches in the super bowl for the first time in like 10 years. I think I would be not doing my like due diligence at this job if I didn't at least question whether, whether holding steadfast to that previous opinion is the right way to approach it.
- [59:57]
C
So two things, and these don't refute your point, but I just think they're reasonable counters to what you're saying. Number one, we lived in an era for 25 years where it's pretty much either been a Tom Brady led team or Patrick Mahomes led team in the Super Bowl. And so those two teams are primarily offensive driven. Doesn't mean that you can't win otherwise. But just those two teams have been so dominant and so good on one side of the football. Not that the Chiefs haven't had good defense, not that the Patriots haven't had good defenses. They have at times. But just this idea of, well, you can either have the best quarterback of his generation or you can do something else. And if you are going to do something else, and this is one of the years where something else has been able to get all the way up to the top, maybe it's easier to have a good defense than find a almost a generational quarterback. But the other thing I would say is I want to see how teams react to this during the off season because last year the Eagles were I think 31st or 32nd in cash spend on the defensive side of the football. They drafted a ton of guys and felt good about them, but they did not invest a ton of defense at all. I think their highest paid defensive player might have been James Bradbury who did not play a single snap for them all season. This year the Rams, or sorry, Patriots and Broncos are two of, I think the five highest teams in the league in terms of cash spending on the defensive side of the football. They spent Patriots, obviously a ton of free agency. Broncos signed a bunch of guys to extensions. They signed Sir Tan, they signed Benito, they signed Franklin Myers, they signed Allen. That they have a ton of deuce they feel good about on the defensive side of the football. They brought in Greenlaw, brought in Fanga as well, paid a premium to bring those guys in. Rams were 32nd in defensive spending and you could argue hey came back to bite them. You know, in terms of cornerbacks got pretty iffy by the end there. Linebackers were stretchable, shall we say in coverage and maybe not the best tackling linebackers I've ever seen in my life. But you know, I, I think there's this thing of you're almost like Somebody, this question of, are you min. Maxing it? Are you sort of seeing like, okay, we believe in defense, but we think our best way to get that is just to draft a ton of guys on that side of the football and just invest everything in our offense the way the Rams do, the way the Eagles do. Or I think you can flip it. I think you're seeing this idea of teams being more aggressively willing to throw a lot of their financial resources into one side of the football and draft on the other side of the football. Bengals, maybe when Burrow Chase Sangers were on rookie deals, maybe a good example of that as well. But I think at the very least what we can say is there's not a clear like, path this year. Like, you can't sit here and say, well, if you don't have a quarterback, you are screwed. The San Darnold super bowl appearance changes things, I think, from that perspective. So I do think there's some truth to it.
- [62:38]
A
I think that's right. And I think for me, the way that I would have approached the McDonald's situation a couple of years ago is I would have said, well, of course there are going to be exceptions, right? There's always going to be a defensive coach who's that good, that that's just the nature of how it's going to go. He's exceptional, but is he maybe less exceptional as the league changes and is he something you can actually chase as an archetype with some credibility and have that be a viable path forward? I don't know because at the end of the day, my stance has always been you need the offense because at some point in the playoffs you're going to need to score 35 points. And guess what? The Seahawks needed to do that. Like they needed to score 30 in order to get, get there. So I still do think that if I had to choose, that's the one I would choose. But it's up for debate more now based on how this season has gone than it has been in my opinion, at any time over the last 10 years. And one of the notes I had in here by what's funny that you say that quarterback play and what you need from the quarterback, it changes in this version of the equation and it changes where you can seek that quarterback out. And you look at the teams that are in the super bowl right now, the teams are in the final. They got their quarterbacks in very different ways. You know, you have the most expensive quarterback in the league against the cap this year was Matthew Stafford. You have the least expensive quarterback room in the league this year was the Patriots. You have a mid tier quarterback contract of the likes of which we almost never ever see, but in my opinion is cheat code is strong.
- [64:07]
B
It is a favorite thing in the world. You love the middle class quarterback contract. That has been like one of your favorite things. I mean, I'm not, I'm not making fun of you.
- [64:14]
A
I like existed. And so it's always been a thing.
- [64:18]
B
Yeah.
- [64:18]
A
Now that we've had two, we had two years in a row where the Bucks last year and the Seahawks this year, paying Sam Darnold $33 million a year when every other quarterback is making $55 million a year and having him perform better than a lot of those better or as good as those $55 million quarterbacks. It's massively valuable. And so the fact that we've had all these different kinds of quarterback contracts play into the way that the final four looks in terms of part because the team constructions and the strengths of the teams are different than they often look. I think that's a fun little wrinkle to it. The quarterback does play into that exact conversation.
- [64:55]
B
Yeah, this was. You asked me about the suplex stuff and that's what I've kind of reconfigured my thinking too. It's not that you have to be the best of the best. You just have to have. You have to just be legit enough like that as far as running the ball, as far as explosive passes, doesn't mean you have to have Josh Allen just to win this game. But can your offense generate explosives when you need to? Like, that's kind of how I've just viewed it. Do you just pass that through threshold? And that's kind of like how again, even defensively too, as far as pressures and all that. But anyways. But as far as offense, that's kind of just what I've kind of keep. I, I've kind of reconfigured how I view it. It's not that you have to have the best and be ranked first or second or third. It's just like, oh yeah, they're 12th, but oh, they're above the mark. Okay, okay. It's valid. And yeah, kind of.
- [65:35]
A
And again, Shadow's offense is a very good indication. Like they're very explosive, but overall they are the. They clear the bar offense.
- [65:42]
B
That was, that's why I was bullish on this season. Going into season, I'm like, all right, I think this defense can be top five pretty, like put in Put it in a top five. I don't think it's going to be the best run game, but I think they're going to be at least average where it's going to hit that mark. What I say 40% in the second half of the year. They did. And then I think the. The just a Kubiak Shanahan offense, they generate explosive passes like, you know, like. Like it's candy. Like, you know, they can do that. That's part of their offense. Did I say they can make a Super bowl run? I never made that prediction, but I did say I was like, hey, I think they're going to make the playoffs and I. Maybe they can win the division. A formula that wins games, it's not the best, but they can pass those thresholds. So. Yeah. And even just talking about defense, you're talking about just who makes the finals and everything, you're talking about the offense being top 10. I don't. I. I looked this up a few weeks ago, but it was. I don't think there's been a Final four team since 2013 that hasn't had that. They've all had a positive or they've held offenses to a negative epa. Maybe that's the best way I can frame that. They've all passed the threshold of just having enough on defense.
- [66:43]
C
I think.
- [66:44]
B
I think it's every single one, every single final form. There's no exceptions that have all been zero because it says defensive EPA and true media. So that's why I'm trying to reconfigure this in my brain. But held offenses to negative epa. So that's always just something just past the threshold as opposed to being the best of the best.
- [67:00]
A
And that's the funny thing is I think that's how I always used to think about it, where the offense. It's not. I don't want the offense to have to pass the threshold. I want the offense way, way above the threshold. Can I get the defense past the. The threshold? Are we seeing a world where maybe that flips and I'm still not there yet? Like, it's. Again, it's been one season where we've lived here and it's been a strange season, but this is the type of year where I'm like, huh? All right, well, let's. Let's see how. Let's see where this goes from here.
- [67:27]
C
Yeah, but. And I'm not saying you're wrong. I'm just. I'll be intrigued to see if that's true. We should see teams investing a ton of money this offseason on defensive linemen, on dudes who can kick ass up front. Like, I know the Patriots paid so much for Milton Williams last year that we were like, you know, he's a good player, but there's no way he's ever going to be worth that contract. If Milton Williams was a free agent this year, he would get significantly more. He would get 30 plus million a year.
- [67:54]
B
Yeah, by the way, I hope I'm.
- [67:56]
A
Wrong because it's the first time my team has had a good offense in my entire life and so I really hope the offensive centric model is the right way to go. We're going to take one more quick break and then come back with a couple more more of these. Thy ticket lady Jennifer of Coolidge. Well, many thanks good sir. Here is my Discover card. They accept Discover at Renaissance fairs? Yeah they do here. Discover is accepted at the places I love to shop. Geth with the times. With the times. You're playing the loot.
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B
Yeah.
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A
And it sounds pretty good, right? Discover is accepted at 99% of places.
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B
That take credit cards nationwide, based on.
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A
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B
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B
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- [69:28]
A
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B
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- [69:44]
A
Barlow, I think you're next. What's your next one?
- [69:47]
C
Unfortunately like eight of mine got folded into other discussions.
- [69:50]
A
That's okay. That's this is a free flowing conversation.
- [69:52]
C
One I don't know if we can use that term. One I have and this is inspired by your colleague and I think all of our friend Ted Winn. This idea of you need to have a good nickel and I think like that being more of a priority for teams than maybe even your starting off ball linebackers. And you think about these teams, they have very different kinds of nickels, but they're all playing at a high level. You think about the bigger guys, Nick Edmond, Warri, Quinton Lake. That idea that, okay, if we're going to live in our sub pack, if we're never going to play base, we don't want to ever play base if we don't have to. Having a dude who is big enough in the alley, big enough as our overhang defender, still good enough in coverage that he can survive. This idea of we don't have to worry about getting outmatched by teams. We want to play 12, we do want to play with bigger bodies, we want to put a second line on the field. We have the ability to counteract that by having nickels we feel good about. Then you flip it. Jaquan McMillan, Marcus Jones, look at players in totally different ways. Smaller players, better in coverage. But this idea of we can have you cover all those attempts to run away over the middle of the field, we can have you cover all the sales we're going to see. You have good instincts for dealing with the things when you're in zone just sort of feels like this is not a new thing. It's been a trend for a long time now, this idea that we have to value that position. But I wonder if it's becoming even a prerequisite to be in elite defense at this point.
- [71:22]
A
Iman Warri feels like the tipping point to me. Like, I think you could have said Kyle Hamilton's enough of a unicorn, where if you're seeking out Kyle Hamilton, is that, are you. Are you going to come up empty more times than not, right? Iman Warrior doing what he did this year and obviously he's a physical freak in his own right. Like, I understand that there aren't a lot of Nicki Minwaris walking the planet, but I think now the frequency fact that we have two and Derwin James is kind of doing a little bit of that for the Chargers. Like, I do feel like now this thing of like, can we find our 220 pound nickel defender that allows us to play nickel to everything. I'd be shocked if we didn't see three to five dice rolls on that exact idea this off season from teams that are trying to find their version of it. I'd be surprised. This, this feels like the moment where.
- [72:08]
B
It changes and it changes safety value. Because if you have a guy that like, is a Guy that can play the slot too. You're just a hybrid player now like as far as again what used to be like oh three safety looks haha big three big big nickel. It's like no, that's base now. And you think the guy that always comes to my mind because I think he's such a good blitzer is Kyler Gordon for the Bears who had an up and down year, faces injuries, all that stuff when healthy. A very good slot player and a very good blitz. And how like Dennis Allen has used them, how Eberfluss used them was they are doing what used to be a three, four common pressure which is you rush the three defensive linemen, drop one outside linebacker and the other off. Think of James Harrison back in the day with the Steelers. Now it's just the slot is the pressure guy. So you're running a creeper rushing forward. But the slot is the outside linebacker now. But then the slot has to run into coverage. He has to blitz, he has to fill the run because that's the gap on an open side. And it became like I was just even looking at the divisional round teams like Toron Johnson was one of these guys. But now you see Toron Johnson, he kind of became a weakness for the Bills this year. I mean there's so much with the Bills that you could just dice apart. I know but it's just with him they were trying to okay, we get into base and everything. But then they kind of got the worst of both worlds was Johnson's not big enough to do all the dynamic things that we want him to do. And then our linebackers aren't that. So they kind of. And that was something I got on Bean about Brandon being was like how did you not have a succession plan? You guys have lived a nickel for 95% of the time in the last five years and you never had a drafted a backup guy. Guy that can maybe take over the 180 pounder.
- [73:40]
A
But anyways that now is almost 30.
- [73:43]
C
Yeah.
- [73:43]
B
And like how'd you not. I don't know. Yeah but Texans Jalen Petrie full on weapon. Yes, full weapon. And also just think bubbles flats all the screen stuff every team does. That's an extension of the run game. That guy is the guy that's pardon. Swing screens.
- [74:02]
C
The swing screens that you're. Everyone's running.
- [74:05]
B
Those guys have to be so dynamic. Now you can't just be a coverage guy. You are an all arounder and it's. If you're not teams are going to get after you the 49ers have an interesting rookie, Upton Stout, who had some nice moments there, you know, and then even I already mentioned the Bears with Kyler Gordon when he's healthy, he was that. So it is something. It's just become. It's such a point of attack player now when it used to just be you're on third down and you have to play man coverage against the tiny stuff. Now you have to guard a tight end, you have to guard a receiver, you have to guard a running back, you have to blitz. You have to just be. And that's why it feels like the best players play there, because they are the best football players. You know, like that might as well put them there. But a guy like Amanda worry the fact that his he was a deep safety at South Carolina and was slow to react to stuff. A big long athlete and you're like, okay, if you get him to the right spot. But I was like, is he a box player? Like, I don't know. He's not super physical. Get him in sports space. But also not make him do so much of the deep safety stuff. He can react quicker now because he's closer to the ball. That opened my mind. Okay, I was getting coached by Mike McDonald helps, but it just has opened my mind to. You can get more projecty types or get guys that you might not think are going to be starters for you might be an interesting deep safety. And now you can weaponize them and get your best five out there as far as dbs wise. So yeah, this is why I love Cooper Dean when he was coming out because I was like, this guy is a best five enabler. No, he can line up wherever and get your best five. Okay. You have other guys that can play outside corner qu Mitchell stuff. All right, Put him in the slob and turn him into a weapon and just knocked everything out. So I, I, yeah, it's not going away. It's only getting more and more important. Colleges are the same way. There's tons of these prospects coming up that have experience doing exactly what they're going to do in the NFL. It's not going away. This is the thing now what I.
- [75:48]
A
Like though, and I think what what Mike did so well with Emanue specifically and I think he learned his lesson from the Kyle Hamilton thing. When you watch those early struggles of the 2022 Ram Ravens defense, Kyle Hamilton's on the back end and you Dolphins game and think about all those losses.
- [76:05]
C
Where he's on his horse trying to catch Tyree from 30 yards away.
- [76:09]
A
Kyle Hamilton is one of the best players in professional football. He is an incredible football player that I think that experience early on, I'm guessing here, I think that experience early on may have influenced the way he thinks about the scope you're giving to a player like that early in his career, where when he had Kyle Hamilton on the back end and they're doing a little bit of everything, that guy's swimming a little bit. And the downside of a young player learning as a deep safety is significantly lower than the downside of a young player learning as a nickel. And so if you look at the. Because I think that's what people are thinking, well, will he play in this spot? In this spot and that spot?
- [76:48]
B
Nope.
- [76:48]
A
He is a nickel and box player. That is what he is this year. And by limiting that, they were successful. Cooper Jean, just a nickel player as a rookie. Derwin James, even. I think one of the smartest things that Jesse Minter did was shrinking the menu for Derwin James after the buy. He played more safety this year, but for the most part, he was a nickel and box player. And that's exactly what the Seahawks did. And I think that is going to be something that continues where it's like, we don't need him to play five different things. If he plays one thing well, that's just as valuable. And I think we're trending more and more toward that direction. All right, Nate, what's your last one here?
- [77:23]
B
Kind of nice little tie in. This was the fourth one. I kind of was like, man, I feel like I need a little bit more philosophical here. You know, as I talk about special teams and why tight ends and how I kind of got it was my like one liner for this is we're at a new level of aggression in the NFL. And now I'm talking about fourth down play calling. I'm talking about owners and team decision makers. I'm talking about just we're at a crossroads in the league. And I know, I know we felt that this year how wide open the NFL felt. I talk about quarterbacks, that we got new crop kind of growing up in front of us, which has led to so much discourse that I'm. I'm so ready to unplug from completely until I have to write an article, write an article about it. Oh, my God. But if you just look at how these teams got here, just these four. The Patriots fired Jaron Mayo after one year, Hired Vull. Broncos fired Nathaniel Hackett after one year. Traded for Sean Payton, a first rounder gave Him a shit ton of money. Money cut Russell Wilson, took on the dead cap and just said we got it. And they made to the five playoffs two years in a row. Rams went all in, won a Super bowl, traded for all these guys. Totally tore the team down. There's Stafford and the Funky Bunch. Revamped their whole team with a cheap rookie contracts.
- [78:32]
A
And then they made playoffs immediately.
- [78:34]
B
Immediately, immediately revamped their whole offense. It's been one of the. That's why again, McVeigh deserves every ounce of praise that we throw at him because like it's the most fascinating thing. Every year I'm giddy to watch what the Rams do because I'm like, what do you got this time? What. What do you got this year Around? Like it's in heavyweight.
- [78:50]
A
It's a football test kitchen. I mean like that's, that's what it is. Like it just. That's what it is.
- [78:55]
B
I know it's obnoxious for neutral fans, but it's so fun.
- [78:57]
A
I don't give a.
- [78:58]
B
It's, it's, it's heavy. It's the movie heavyweights. It's like last year they got jet skis in the year before they got the blob.
- [79:04]
C
This year 40% 13 personnel 13% one time last year. Oh yeah, it's.
- [79:09]
B
And, and we just Talked about the 2021 random were empty like half the time. It was, it was insane what they were doing.
- [79:15]
A
Still the most, still the most empty drop backs of any team in the next gen era was the 2021 Rams.
- [79:19]
B
It was, it was fascinating to me because you could see teams trying. We're getting so frustrated against that. But the Seahawks fired their longtime coach, a legend. Traded away their starting quarterback, signed Sam Darnold. Everyone's laughing at that. And here they are. And on top of it. Patriots spent the most money in free agency. Seahawks spent the fourth most in free agency this year. Ownership firing coaches left and right. We had 10 new coaches this year. Just a couple years ago we had 10 new coaches. And that's because that whole VC money coming in, they're just like, hey, this actually isn't so bad. Maybe the soccer.
- [79:50]
A
50 million.
- [79:51]
B
The soccer owners were on to something here. Let's just fire these guys. Let's get this going. Let's get a new whole new staff in here. This is so bad. Mark Davis, the broke. The broke. His team in the NFL has like three head coaches. They're paying right now because they sold so much VC money. Rights and streaming rights. Like we're entering A whole new world. Like, we're about to get 18. I don't care how much players want to complain about everything. We're getting that. And that's going to change. Scheduling, that's going to change. We're in so much new stuff here. That might change roster construction as far as how much. How many players teams can have. That might be the change up on all of it. Coaching turnover, like I said, too, but also the ramifications of firing 10 head coaches a few years ago. 10 head coaches this year. The well is tapped. And the NFL is very insular. Yeah, we can say it's the good old boys network. It is. But everybody wants a Shanahan guy for years and years and years. It's tapped. It's tapped. Now we're getting retreads of those same guys. There's no new guys to, like, kind of bump up. And we're seeing owners who only watch TV kind of just go, like, I don't know who to who we're going to like Corn ferry. Who do you think we can sign? And it's just the same exact people. So that is where, again, like I said, we're at crossroads. There's got to be a new tree that sprouts up. Like, I don't know whose tree it is, but there's got to be new ideas, new inflection is ecologized coming in. Jim Leonard is a defensive guy, and we're.
- [81:09]
A
It's the Peyton tree.
- [81:10]
B
You.
- [81:10]
A
You alluded to it earlier. To me, it feels like it's the. It's the Sean Payton tree.
- [81:15]
C
I was going to say it's the. Is it The Harbaugh, Mike McDonald, Jesse Minter tree?
- [81:19]
A
Oh, yeah, that's interesting one. Yeah. Well, defensively, I think that's it. And then I think if you look at the. Davis Webb is going to get one of these jobs eventually. The McVeigh guys are going to continue getting these jobs, but I think, think there will be like, Declan Doyle, I.
- [81:32]
B
Was just about to say.
- [81:33]
A
Yeah, and. And he's obviously, like, indirectly, he is off the Peyton tree to an extent. And so, yes, I think that collection of guys is where we're going to start mining next. And then we're going to frack it too much and they're going to be some implosions.
- [81:45]
B
Yeah, yeah. Then we're getting fires and everything. And yeah, it's. It's. It's fascinating to me because I felt like this year it was like, oh, yeah, fire the guys. Oh, where are the young coaches at? Like, Because I, everybody kept getting, getting fired. I'm like, who are they interviewing? Like, who. Like I feel like I'm pretty well versed on who are the interesting candidates. And I'm like, like, I don't know guys.
- [82:04]
A
Like, there were no Ben Johnson to. No Liam Cohen's in this, in this thing. And that's the problem we, we were talking about before we started the. Where we've arrived with this coaching cycle is a perfect storm of bullshit. Because you have all of the just the complete, the frustration from some of these long standing teams now winning the super bowl when the Chiefs were not involved. So you get the, the Brown Bills and the Ravens jobs open. You have the constant turnover that you're talking about combined with this crop being not good enough and so much worse than the last couple of years. And so you have the most jobs open in recent memory. You have the most prestigious jobs open in recent memory. And you have no coaches to fill those jobs. That's exactly what happened.
- [82:45]
C
And you have owners who are having to do things that make no logical sense. I mean, today the Browns hired Todd Monken as their head coach. And I think Todd Monkin's a good coach. I'm not saying like he's a terrible, incredible coach. But this same ownership group fired Todd Monken as offensive coordinator in 2019. Do you really think he got so much better over the last six years that he's now suddenly a good head coach? Like, I'm not saying he's a bad head coach, but like if your eval then was this guy's not even good enough to be roc. What does that tell you about you're hiring him as an HC now or.
- [83:20]
B
Or, or the owner of the Bills going, hey, these stupid coaches made us draft Keon Coleman. Hey, we're going to put them on the promote them. And then they, and then they tried to pass the buck to the receiver coach. And then it's like Joe Brady played receiver. His background is receivers. So you guys went over the head coach and over the OC to blame.
- [83:38]
C
The second high, second round pick on a. From the wide receiver coaches.
- [83:43]
B
33.
- [83:44]
C
It's basically.
- [83:44]
B
Yeah, psych. Okay, like, all right, all right. Sorry. The Bills have been. Mike. Oh they just been such a joy for me because it's just how much bullshit they're spouting and it's just so much fun to just parse through it and go wow. They. You guys can't even get your lies straight.
- [83:58]
C
Yeah. Days to prep.
- [84:01]
A
My, my last one is almost directly connected to this and that is like the aggression, the, the aggressiveness being at an all time high. I think we've had to recalibrate our concept of what windows look like for NFL teams. The Patriots and the Seahawks have Preseason overrunners of 8 and a half and they're playing in the Super Bowl. And so, and I think for both of these teams, I was guilty of, of this. When the Patriots were throwing all this money around in free agency, I'm like, why, like what? Like to what end is this happening? Well, yeah, it's like the, and there are good contracts and bad contracts in free agency. When the, the Carlton Davis one specifically, I was like, you think you're going to be good enough quick enough for this to matter Me, right. And they're about to play for the Super Bowl. And so, and I think. And the Seahawks are, again, it's, it's not totally the same because they won a bunch of games last year, but when the Seahawks traded Geno Smith and DK Metcalf, one of the first responses was, oh, the Seahawks are rebuilding now, the Seahawks are in the Super Bowl. Right. And so I think that this idea that there is like a logical sequence of events that has to happen for you to build yourself into a championship team over like a multi year period, it's kind of gone now. And I think one of the reasons that that's the case is that offensive context can change so fast for these teams, in part because of what the right play caller can do for you. Right. Like Clint Kubiak being what he was this year combined with Sam Darnold, there is no possible way for us to accurately predict what that would have looked like and what it would have meant for the Seahawks. It's impossible to do challenging for 2000. There's no world where you can do that. And so there's no world where you could have predicted that this would have been the opening of the title window for the Seahawks. Even if you were the biggest Drake May supporter on the planet and you had faith in what the Josh McDaniels, Drake May thing could look like, there is no conceivable way that you could have had him in with a season where he averaged 0.25 EPA per drop back, it'd be crazy to predict that. But I think because of all of this, because of the power that a lot of these coaches have, the good ones, William Cohen and Ben Johnson did this year, like that that's possible. And so the convergence of that with quarterbacks that we don't really properly understand, until they're in the right context, everything about the way that you view these teams before and after can change immediately. And so I just think that our understanding of what that means for their ability to win championship and the timeline it takes to win them also has to change. And I think this year was like a really good example of that.
- [86:49]
B
We're back in the mid aughts.
- [86:50]
C
That's what it feels like. I don't disagree. This is the astronaut meme for me. It's always been this way. I don't think this is a new thing. I go back to the Rams with McVay. That team went from being all laughingstock, definitely one of the worst seasons we ever saw to being playoff team of year one, super bowl team. Year two, the Bengals with Burrow coming back from the acl.
- [87:13]
A
Bengals. The Bengals are the best comparison to the Patriots. If I'm trying to tie them together, that's the team they remind me of the most.
- [87:20]
C
Same go back to the Niners with Harbaugh. The first year Harbaugh got there, they go from being a mediocre team to 13.3 NFC. They probably should have beat the Giants in the NFC championship if it wasn't for those special teams, which turns out it mattered then too. I'm not saying you're wrong. You are completely correct. I just think, and this is. I think I mentioned this to you guys before. I don't know if it's totally true, but I feel like this is so based on the Jordan era Chicago Bulls, where they went through such a linear process of we're going to win, we're going to lose the first round, we're going to win in the first round, we're going to lose the second round, we're going to make it to the conference title game, we're going to lose in there, then we're going to make it to the finals, then we're going to win every single year from that point forward.
- [87:58]
B
And the team we lost to before in the playoffs, we beat this year. Like, you know.
- [88:04]
C
It is such a. I'm going to go through the entire stable to get to the main heel.
- [88:10]
B
Bookings and it's the Dungeon of Doom.
- [88:12]
C
It's great when it works out that way. We're going to derail this podcast six hours in for Dungeon.
- [88:18]
B
Let's talk about 1995 Halloween Havoc. Let's talk about some monster trucks.
- [88:23]
C
I mean, listen, listen. I would say that Drake May is the giant falling off a Kobo hall and getting up and not having any.
- [88:30]
A
Water on him right now. You can. Guys are done.
- [88:34]
B
You're a Tony Schiavone here, Robert.
- [88:37]
A
I've always aspired to be exactly that. You're probably right, Barnwell. And honestly, I say this, but I'm.
- [88:42]
C
Not saying you're wrong. I'm just saying that I think we.
- [88:44]
B
Underestimate how quickly Dynasty seem to warp people's brains. Like, speaking of the Bulls, I actually, it was so funny you said Bulls. I was about to bring up the warriors, where the warriors warped everyone in the NBA. And then all of a sudden people have realized, oh, actually, yeah, pace and space, shooting, shooting, shooting. Everyone tried to, to copy it. Well, it gets tap over, tapped, whatever. And then also it's like, well, you have to counter that. And then we see, you know, the Nuggets using size and Yochi Jokic and everything. Of course, having been the best player in the world helps, but same thing, I think the, you know, Brady and the Patriots followed by immediately followed by Mahomes and the Chiefs. That screws you a little bit because you go, well, we need that, we need that, we need that. And it's like, man, shoot. Even think of those first Patriots teams, Patriots teams, Chiefs teams. I guess you go Patriots here too. But first Chiefs teams was Mahomes. Remember how bad those defenses were? Like, it wasn't like, and that's what's funny. It was like, that's not exactly how you want to build a team, like when you actually look at it. But again, just, I mean, this is like a nice way to kind of like end it. But it's just like kind of like speaking what you say, it's like just enough, you have to have enough, you know, kind of like enough of everything just to be valid and all that. But it's, it's fascinating to me what you think is kind of tying in what you said, Robert. It's like kind of changing what you need. Like what I think you regauging it maybe is the best way to put it. Like, do you, is that important or how important does these things go to be a quarterback passing game, run game, defense, it's special teams, et cetera, et cetera. So yeah, no, I, I, it's fun how much it changes around, but I do think that dynasties kind of warped our brains a little bit. And I'm including myself here, the Bull.
- [90:14]
A
And I think that's what I'm saying. It's like I'm have, I have to like, make sure I'm thinking of this the right way. Because in my opinion, and Barwa that the fact that it might, that might honestly be it. Where it's just like that bulls like sequence of events is burned into all of our brains. Where it's just like there's a way to do this so clear there's a timeline you must do it on. But I also think there are examples where there's so many to me where teams jump the gun and they pay for it, that that's why I feel like this. There's actually a way to do this. And even like, listen, the Patriots may lose the super bowl and that Carlton Davis contract might look like a disaster next year. I still think there are proper ways to handle free agent contract that you give out. But again, I just think that the this year specifically there have just been multiple teams that have flown in the face of our idea of like what a window really is. And you go back a couple of years, the Broncos and the Rams did this like the Broncos free agent class in year one under Peyton. I was like, what are they doing? And then those guys that they signed, it was crucial in what this team looks like. The Rams in 2023 were like, well, when's that window going to open back up? The answer is immediately. Immediately. And so I just think maybe I'm too mired in this where I think too traditionally about what the sequence of events has to look like when in reality the right play call or quarterback combination I think is always at the center of this. The right quarterback play caller combination smashes that wheel maybe more often than we want to admit. And we should be open to that idea. When thinking about how quickly teams can.
- [91:42]
B
Can do this, there's more paths to victory. I think that's like, yeah, get tying my board game stuff. This is like speaking of wheels, wheels within wheels. Bill Dune, Imperium. Man, that board game, it's good. There's multiple paths to victory. It's just like football. Can we talk about the US Soccer team too? We got the World cup coming up. We can get that in there.
- [92:02]
C
The Ricardo Pepe transfer to Fulham.
- [92:04]
B
And oh, did you see Alex Freeman got signed. FC Central. FC Central. Robert Antonio Freeman, son.
- [92:13]
A
I knew soccer player. I knew this was a mistake. All right, that is all we've got for today. Always good to do this with you guys. Barnwell, tell people where they can check out the work that you're doing right now, including the super bowl preview. You're already maniacally working on like a psycho.
- [92:30]
C
ESPN.com Go to the Psycho section. You will find me and Nate.
- [92:35]
A
Where can people check out the work that you are currently doing over at Yahoo.
- [92:40]
B
And a little bit, a little bit of NFL plus stuff. Have some videos kind of coming out now doing some breakdown stuff. But yeah, Yahoo. Check it out. Football 301. All the good stuff over there.
- [92:48]
A
All right, guys, that is all we've got for today. We'll be back tomorrow with an update on the coaching carousel. We were going to do a mailbag for Friday. There's just way too much shit we have not talked about yet. Like it's, it feels like there have been 30 coaches hired that we haven't talked about. And so we're going to sit tomorrow and just download on all of that with me, Derek and Dave. We're also going to have a couple of our beat writers on to help me walk through a couple of the processes that I don't understand, like the Bills hiring Joe Brady. So we're going to do a couple of those tomorrow as well. For now, though, that is all we've got. Sincerely appreciate you guys listening. We'll talk to you very soon. In a world where January is supposed to be boring, one staple of the.
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C
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B
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A
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