← The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL
The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL
Now that you've slept on it...NFL Draft takeaways
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- [00:01]
Rob Rang
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Rob Rang
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- [01:21]
Dane Brugler
welcome to the Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays. One more look back at the 2026 NFL Draft today with our guy Fran Duffy from the All City Network, a very good friend of the show. Talking to Fran about how we wanted to approach this. The idea that we landed on was now that we've slept on it, here's a thought that we have about the draft. We do this stuff in real time. I mean, especially the first two nights where we're just reacting to the picks one by one by one by one. You wake up on Saturday morning and the draft starts at 11am and and you've got hundreds more picks that are coming down the pike. It's hard to really sit with a lot of this stuff because you're reacting to it all as the bullets are flying. And so what we wanted to do today is now that we've had a couple days to remove ourselves from the news cycle, the constant wave of stuff that's hitting us. What are some thoughts that may have shifted about this draft and how we feel about it? So that's what we did today. Ten A dozen thoughts. Now that we've had a little bit of time, space and room to think about it, now that we've slept on it, these are the thoughts me and Fran Duffy, have about the 2026 NFL Draft. Let's get to it right now. All right, we're spending one more show on this feed. Over the course of this week. I was going to say digging through the wreckage of the 2026 NFL Draft, it's pretty terrible connotation. Just kind of sorting through everything that went down last weekend. You know, for us, I mean, you're in the same boat as you guys react to everything that happens in real time. There are things that you just are never going to get your arms around fully in the moment. And so kind of sitting with everything and looking at the draft classes and really pursing them with a little bit more time and space over the last couple days, I think inevitably some of your thoughts about what happened over the course of the weekend are going to change or they're going to shift. And so I wanted to spend a little bit of time with you today, Fran, and talking about a few of those moments, a few of those instances where since the draft has happened, as we've gotten a little bit more distance from it, what have we reconsidered or maybe what has come into focus that wasn't necessarily apparent as things were happening in real time this weekend.
- [03:40]
Rob Rang
Yeah, and I, I love the. The concept of the. Of the show. I think that at the end of the day, we are so reactive right away, and a lot of it has to do with the preconceived notions and expectations going into draft weekend. You know, Carnell Tate goes number four, and it's like, whoa, like we did about this happening. And then it's like, all right, now I have to reset with it for a little bit. Maybe we'll talk about that soon. But I would say for me, and correct me if I'm wrong, I feel like we're going to continue to have an evolving conversation about the tight end position. And I think that that's not something that's going to be going away, and I'm probably going to be spending a lot of time thinking about it and watching the tight end position, not just like through the summer and the rest of the off season, but as we get into the fall.
- [04:19]
Dane Brugler
So that was one of mine that. That was one of my five that I had. And my note about it was I'm still sorting through what to make of this because I think that there are a couple different directions you could go with it. I had a conversation with an offensive coordinator at the combine, and I told him when we were sitting there, I was like, I think Jackson Hawes is going to be the most influential player in the NFL from 2025. He's like, what does that mean? I was like, I just think that teams are going to try to find this guy. I think that we're just going to have this world as we kind of chase the hot things schematically in the league and teams are going to be like, how can we find a blocking tight end to put in there? Because of all of the myriad advantages that that can create for you. And then we saw it happen, like we legitimately saw it happen on day two. And so you look at last year's tight ends, there were four tight ends drafted on day two last year. Three of those guys were Elijah Arroyo, Terrence Ferguson and Harold Fannin, which are just different sorts of tight ends that were drafted in day two this year. 143 catches in college for Ferguson. Fannin had like 143 catches his final year in college. And Arroyo was less productive, but he's a 235 pound player. So the day two tight ends that were drafted in 2025 are the sort of high value pass catchers that I think the league had chased at that position over the last 5, 7 ish years. And then you look at this year, there were eight tight ends drafted on day two this year. And after Stowers, how many of them weigh less than 245 pounds almost to a man? And you know this more than me. Those eight guys drafted, their biggest selling point is that they're big bodied players that hopefully you can utilize in some of these looks. And so maybe some of this is available talent in the draft, maybe some of this is an overreaction schematically, but I think maybe both of them converging at the same time to create this really crazy pivot when it comes to body types at the position that early in the draft.
- [06:16]
Rob Rang
This is something that I've been kind of sitting on for, I want to say like 18 months or so, because last year at this time I had Jackson Hawes comfortably inside my top hundred. He was inside my, just inside my top 90 going in. And the way I do my big board, and we'll talk about this a little bit too, but the way I do my board is not necessarily how I see them getting drafted, like which order. I'm not trying to guess the top 100 picks, I'm trying to foresee, like, you know, how valued will this player be four or five years from now? And so when I looked at Jackson Hawes, I'm like, this guy's got the ability to be a dominant blocker, like a. A numbers changer for you in the run game. And so this was coming off an off season where, you know, yeah, we saw this. This year. We saw Charlie Kohler get paid $8 million, Daniel Bellinger get paid $8 million a year. But we've kind of been living in this world already. You know, Luke Farrell got paid just under 7 million last year. Josh Oliver was at 7 million. The off season before, like, that's real money. That's like starting linebacker money, starting running back money, starting db, starting offensive lineman, guard, center. So, you know, guys like Will Disley, Charlie Warner, Brock. Brock Wright, they're in that Bucke. And so I'm like, all right, like, this is a position that the league is showing us. There's a handful of these guys, but the league is showing us that there is real value in this player. And so if I'm looking at Jackson Hawes, who was just. He was such an awesome run blocker. Yeah, I think that he's going to be a guy that will be valued this way a few years from now. And then, lo and behold, like, as we get into this season in 2025, not only was he awesome, but then you just see the proliferation of the 12 and 13 personnel. And it became such a talking point whether it was like the. The A.J. barner aspect of things in Seattle, but then Obviously, once Sean McVeigh gets involved with all the 13 personnel and what they were doing, now it's in vote now everybody wants a piece of that. And so it's going to be an ongoing discussion. And obviously the. The draft has a big part of that as well.
- [08:03]
Dane Brugler
And I think Sean is the most clearly chased offensive coach in the NFL when it comes to trends. Ben Johnson is closing in. When you talk to other coaches around the league and who they're watching, I think a lot of teams are interested in what Ben was doing in Chicago last year. And obviously this is a team that loved to be in 12 personnel. They've overinvested in the tight end position yet again. My question with this is not why it's happening. I think it's obvious why it's happening. It's how much does this. Is this really going to matter? Like, this reminds me a little bit of all of those teams chasing these pterodactyl corners in the early 2010s because everyone wanted to be like Seattle. And then you kind of realize that there's a special sauce that you can't just create by taking the same body types. And so even as we over index to these sorts of tight ends, how many teams are actually going to have the right combination of players and the right plan to implement these sort of guys and make good on the investments that they're pouring into it? I think that remains to be seen. I think that's kind of where I, I don't know where I land on this. Like I get why it's happening. Whether it was the right decision and the right pivot for a lot of these teams, I think we're yet to find that out.
- [09:12]
Rob Rang
And I think it's definitely pertinent to that specific archetype of tight end. Where my head goes is like, what does this mean for the past first guys? So you mentioned Eli Stowers going to the Eagles, know Justin Jolie, he lands with Sean Payton, Sean Payton trades up to get him in like the fifth round. And I, I love that because Sean Payton has proven like, yeah, this is how I use this player. I'm, I feel really confident in that. But if you are going to try and live in a 12 and 13 personnel world and you have these past first guys, you know, we just saw this with Buffalo with Dalton Kincaid, you know, I think of Noah Fant, I think of Mike Gasicki, I think of Evan Ingram, I have Kyle Pitts, Luke Musgrave who got passed by a guy in his own draft class, and Tucker Kraft. So you know, Gerald Everett. Like these guys, it feels so often that they fail to reach that expectation from pre draft or contract, whatever it is. And it, because it's hard. It's a tight needle to thread to get defenses to respect the fact if you're going to be in 12 personnel with this player that they're not just going to treat it as 11. And so, and that's what I worry about with Stowers. And I think the way I'm kind of like starting to wrap my head around it is are you a pass first tight end or are you a pass only tight end? And I fear for a guy like Stowers that he's more of the latter. And to me it's more in the bucket of some of those other guys already listed as opposed two guys like Sam LaPorta who, you know, like wasn't the best blocker but they found ways to be able to use it. You know, Colston Loveland, like, yeah, in Michigan, like you got a block, it's maybe not a strength of his, but you know, he can work around it. Harold Fannin Jr. Like all guys where it's like, yeah, check the box as opposed to like defined weakness. And it's going to be really interesting to watch those guys kind of play this out in this new world.
- [10:45]
Dane Brugler
It's very funny what we're looking for now though, and the box you have to check and the bar that you have to clear. Because with those past first guys it was can you survive? Right? Can you die slowly? Are you a credible blocker here? Because the archetype of player that we're chasing has changed. Now you need to clear a much higher bar as a blocker. And so the idea in theory with all these pass first tight ends is, well, if we were in nickel, we'd be able to grind you down against the run. And if you were in base, our pass first tight end is better than the third linebacker you're putting on the field. That the promise of that teams often fell short of it because, well, if they're going to be a nickel and you can't grind them down because he's not a good blocker, what advantage are you gaining? That's the Dalton Kincaid kind of quagmire that I think the Bills found themselves in. Well, now the promise of this idea is different. It's, we're going with the blocking guy first. Well, you can maybe be a credible blocker to an extent in college, but are you a really good blocker now? You have to be like an assertive blocker in order to make good on this sort of investment. And so the, again, how high the bar is, you have to clear in certain aspects of the position have dramatically shifted from how we were thinking about it three or four years ago. And so while all of this stuff sounds so good in theory, the question is going to become the, Are these big body guys that seemed like they were good blockers in college, can we actually get there with them in the NFL? And that's just not the question we were asking about the tight end position. And especially day two tight ends over the last like five to seven years.
- [12:14]
Rob Rang
Yeah. And like I can't wait to see what like Darnell Washington gets paid. Right. And just see like, all right, these guys that are these needle movers, you know, when Jackson Hawes is up, you know, those kind of things. Like, I'm excited for that. And then even too, like as you were talking, I was thinking about the, you know, those past first guys in the, in a previous world, you know, we're talking like a decade ago in the NFL where in RPOs were all the rave and it's like, oh, well, you know what? Like, we can use the tight ends on a pop pass in the RPO world and we're. And that's how they're. They're effective. We can use them on these slide routes where they're, you know, maybe they're going to slice the defensive end, but actually they release out into the flat and, you know, keeping defenses honest that way, as defenses have kind of caught on to that, you have to find other ways to be able to use those tight ends. So it's going to be a really interesting kind of back and forth with those different archetypes at the position.
- [12:58]
Dane Brugler
It was interesting to me because Howie was pretty explicit about his re evaluation of body types at tight end when he was talking to the media earlier this spring. And then he comes out in the draft and drafts Eli Stowers in the second round. So it's like. What is like is Johnny Muntz the manifestation of that reevaluation is that like, kind of where we ended it. And so the fact that he said that and then they drafted a pass catching tight end in the second round, I just found that funny.
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Rob Rang
Yeah, I mean, they've brought in so many guys, you know, Alberto Kuebunam and you know, Tyree Jackson, like, they've had a handful of these guys that, you know, the converted quarterback turned tight end. And so Stowers being available late in the second round and them saying, yep, this is the guy we want to roll with shouldn't have been as big of a surprise as it was, but here we are.
- [13:41]
Dane Brugler
I wonder the last thing I want to ask you about this because this can tap into like your knowledge of the draft class overall. I wonder if these guys were maybe a little bit overdrafted. Like, the run starts with Borkature, who is one of the more overdrafted players. When you look at the consensus board and that has been the conversation about Jacksonville for the last 72 hours, which we can talk about or not. And I. And I wonder, is that happening in this draft specifically because teams are so down on what things look like after pick 100, where they're sitting there being like, all right, I could draft a developmental player that is a situational pass rusher for me, or he's a traitsy corner, or I could draft a player who I think has more clear utility in who I'm trying to be. And I wonder if that was part of the thought process. Conscious or not, that kind of led to the run that we saw on these sorts of tight ends on day
- [14:30]
Rob Rang
two, do think it was probably the perfect storm, because I think the closer we got to the draft, you know, it was a lot of discussion about, all right, well, even in the back end of the first round, as that first and second tier of player went off the board, you were going to start to see teams, hey, we're. We're just going to keep this in the fairway, you know, Keelan, Rutledge, come on down. Right. Like, those kinds of. Those kinds of selections. And so thinking about it, like, those kinds of tight ends are very easily projectable. And so, yeah, like, if you're Ben Johnson and Ryan Poles and it gets to be the third round and everybody thinks you still haven't added a pass rusher yet, you still haven't added a defensive lineman yet, what are you doing? And rather than reach for a player that maybe requires more development or isn't quite the best fit for Dennis Allen's scheme, it's like, hey, we lost Durham Smythe. If we want to play the way that we want to play offensively, we need this guy, Sam Roush to come in and, you know, be our third tight end right now. And so that may seem sacrilege to what we've come to know for positional value, but I think it makes sense.
- [15:25]
Dane Brugler
Honestly, the Sam Roush thing I had no issues with whatsoever. The Xavier Thomas thing is a different conversation than we could potentially get to. All right, so we both had the tight end one, so why don't you give me your next one? What is the next thing that you've kind of been mulling over and may have reevaluated or kind of sat with in the last couple days about this draft?
- [15:42]
Rob Rang
All right, so now that I've slept on it, I think I'm more accepting of the Cardinals taking Jeremiah Love at number three.
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Dane Brugler
So I have. I have Jadarian Price as my one of mine, so I. I can't get there with Jeremiah. All right, so give me your argument. I. Cause I'm very curious about this.
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Rob Rang
Well, that. This is actually interesting because I thought you and Bill Barnwell had a great conversation last. Was that last week? Last month?
- [16:03]
Dane Brugler
Yeah, it was last week. It seems like a year ago, but it was last week.
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Rob Rang
You're right. But I thought you guys had a great conversation and so much. One of the most enlightening things I caught from that was the running back at the end of the first round being a less fruitful area to be able to pluck those guys. So I'm interested to hear your take with, with Price. But you know, I think at the end of the day, look, the draft is about acquiring great players, right? And this, we know that this was an unusual draft in that there weren't those blue chip guys, especially at the premium positions at the top. And I do think that at the end of the day too, this is where, like, the human element does come into play with this franchise in particular, this owner in particular. Even though it was a different regime like everyone's talked about, like, oh, Arvell Reese. Well, they might not do it because of Isaiah Simmons, but it's not just Isaiah Simmons, like Zavin Collins, Hassan Reddick, Deion Buchanan. You know, some of these guys hit like Buddha Baker was kind of a hybrid guy as a second round pick, but they've dabbled in these waters of like the positionless player a handful of times and really struggled to be able to nail down like, what was the best fit for this player. And then on top of it, they have invested so much capital into that defense over the last couple of years and basically ignored offense all off season last spring. So I get, you know what, we're going to just give this offense as much juice as we possibly can. And I don't even think it's a thing. You know, I know that there's been some, some stuff out there about, oh, like, Monte Ostevor doesn't understand positional value. One of the things I do because I'm, I'm, you know, sick and headed when it comes to this stuff is that like, I studied like GM tendencies and talk, you know, in terms of, like, what do they like to do? What's a typical archetype of the players they hunt in the draft? No one drafts premium positions at a higher rate than Monty Austin for it. When you look at his time, I mean, literally it was the same when he was in Tennessee under John Robinson. But it's one of the highest rates over the course of the entire draft. And it climbs when you get into just day one and day two and certainly in round one. And so where has that gotten them? Right? They've taken maybe lesser players in some of these spots at premium positions. And if you're sitting here and you're like, man, we have the number three pick in the draft, we can either trade down and if we're not getting the offers that we want, like, we're kind of out of luck there, or we stay and we take a lesser player with a lower grade at a premium position that might be a gamble. And it's something that this owner has watched us do time and time again. Or do we just take Jeremiah Love, Right? And so I actually, as we've sat on, sat on a bit. I think I feel okay with it. I think I'm all right with what that, what that decision ultimately ended up being for Austin.
- [18:25]
Dane Brugler
For part of me, if we're sitting with the practical realities of the current situation with the franchise, I think that's how you more easily get there. Not only what you're talking about with the ownership, but I think what you're talking about with the front office, right? Like this is I was talking to someone in analytics department a couple weeks ago when I was prepping for that show you mentioned with Barnwell. And we were talking about kind of the siren song of taking a running back early when you are a general manager that might be inching toward the hot seat. Because Arvo Reese is still an idea, especially as a pass rusher. He's still an idea running backs. And another person I talked to said Jeremiah Love, according to all of our metrics, all of our modeling, has the best chance of being a productive player of any player in this entire draft. So the fact that he is, quote, unquote, safer, even if you can never be all that safe, let's put the number at 65 to 70% rather than 55%. That's a significant difference. So if you're Monty Austin for it, I think there's something about just survival, right? I think that there's something about just kind of keeping things in the fairway in order to make sure at the end of this year you can look at your top five pick and be like, this guy had 1200 yards. It took 480 touches for him to get to those 1200 yards. But he was still a productive player for us. And so I, I can understand that because part of the argument for me, and this is the most important argument for me, and I've gone back to this multiple times as we've talked about the position in the last month, the opportunity cost to me is the most important thing. But the opportunity cost is like over a multi year period, it's, if you take Jeremiah Love in the top five this year, then you could. You can't find a pass rusher where in theory, if you took the pass rusher, you can find a running back in the second round in next year's draft. There's a chance that money asen fortunes doesn't give a shit about next year's draft or the draft coming after that. And so I understand how it happens and I think too often I can sit back here in this chair and hem and haw about optimized decision making and, and nitpick when it's not optimized decision making when in reality these teams for the most part are never operating that way. Like the report from Schefter this week about the A.J. brown trade likely netting the Eagles a 2028 first round pick. They are afforded the luxury of operating that way because Howie will leave that job when he wants to. That is not how 25 of the front offices in the NFL are allowed to work. And so, I mean it's probably more than that.
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Right.
- [20:47]
Dane Brugler
And so it's, that's a generous number. And so I think that it's important to at least consider the human element when it comes to stuff like this. And so while I can firmly say it is not the optimized way of using your draft capital, I think it's easier to kind of soften on it when you understand the reasons that these things happen. But I'll also say that's why bad teams stay bad.
- [21:08]
Rob Rang
Yep. No, I. And that's the thing is that at the end of the day, do I think it was the best. No. Like not the best possible outcome. But I kind of get it. And I think, I think I'm. I am more okay with it right now than I was 72 hours ago, for sure.
- [21:23]
Dane Brugler
And that's exactly how I feel about the Jadarian Price thing to Seattle. And if you look back at historical data, you're absolutely correct. And the Seahawks are one of these teams, you know, they drafted Rashad Penny in this exact range and he did not work out for them. Some of that is injury related. But the history of these late first round picks at running back over the last 20 years, there are far, far fewer misses than there are hits. And there are guys who have maybe like one good season, two good seasons, d' Angelo Williams, people like that. But compare d' Angelo Williams is on field impacts to the premium positions that you're going to. And I'm not picking out d' Angelo Williams, I'm just using as an example people are going to look at some of these like and remember a couple of these fantasy relevant seasons that these running backs had and be like oh, that guy was kind of a hit. It's like no over, over like one to two contracts. It does not compare with the other players that you can draft. But for Seattle specifically in this position right what you're looking at their roster and you're looking at their needs and you're looking at the lack of picks that they have. No running back went off the board after Jadarian price until 90, and that was Caleb Black, who people thought was overdrafted.
- [22:24]
Rob Rang
It was a non combine invite.
- [22:26]
Dane Brugler
So. So there you go.
- [22:27]
Rob Rang
A guy who won the worst line
- [22:30]
Dane Brugler
was, was the next running back taken at 90 and people thought it was one of the biggest reaches of the draft for the most part. We got all these guys out of the top 100.
- [22:37]
Rob Rang
Okay.
- [22:38]
Dane Brugler
And so you're Seattle and I do think that sometimes we can. You can ascribe like a certain magic to the teams that are winning, that it sounds great in the short term and then when you actually play it out over the long term, it becomes less great. But when we've seen what Mike McDonald has done with back seven players in Seattle specifically, and the idea that, all right, we're going to find safety depth in round two, corner depth in round three, I trust this defensive infrastructure to make those guys work. And because you have Mike McDonald on that defensive staff, I think the place where I landed is, was running back and poppet running back actually the scarcest skill set that Seattle could seek out in this draft. And if we're talking about scarcity as a reason to not take the running back in the first round for them specifically, is there actually a scarcity argument for why it's justifiable for them to do this? And I think I land in maybe. I, I don't. I don't think I could firmly say it, but I think I land on maybe.
- [23:35]
Rob Rang
Yeah. And it was interesting because he. And I actually was thinking back to last year's draft about this as well, because John Schneider's former partner in crime in Seattle, this. The same thing happened with Pete Carroll and the Raiders last year where everybody was my. All like the, the sharp analysts and macho. It was Gent Ashton Genti going to the Raiders and it was like, oh, this is a classic smokescreen from Pete Carroll. Like they're, they're not doing this. And I felt the same way about this one. With Jadarian Price going to Seattle, I'm like not going to do it. I know that he's going to trade down. Like it's. And then he ends up taking it. And he said at the post, post draft press conference, John Schneider, he says, yeah, like we, it was. Our love for him was out there so out in the open that we were afraid that someone was going to trade up ahead of us to take them, which, which would have been something. But I guess at the end of the day, you know, it's one of those things where the need kind of supersedes everything else as well. I like, like you pointed out, and the scarcity on the market was absolutely the case in this, in this class. I mean, it was easily the worst running back group I've ever personally evaluated. It was a, it was a bad, bad group.
- [24:35]
Dane Brugler
I think there are a couple other things to consider here. The first is if you were going to be, if you were going to have this level of urgency to find this position in the draft, why not see if you can get in in the mix and resign Kenneth Walker? Like you have the money to do it. And so I'm wondering what the thought process was there. There's a couple things that come to mind. You look at it, Kenneth walker has a $19 million cap it next year for the Chiefs. That's not nothing, right? Like, that's still a decent chunk of change. And even though Seattle has right now, I think it's like 55 million in cap space and they don't really have any other extension candidates that aren't already on the books for 2027. Like Devin Witherspoon's going to get paid, but he has a $21 million cap hit in 2027. And so I think that you could argue they have the financial flexibility to have given out that contract if they wanted to. But the other part of this is they're probably going to sign Witherspoon to that deal sometime this off season. They're already ninth in cash spending this year and after they give him that deal, they're going to be up near the top of the league. So there's a chance. And I again, this is just like trying to read the tea leaves and understand why they wouldn't have wanted to be in the mix for a guy like Walker, knowing that they'd have this level of urgency. Maybe they just said, you know, we spent what we're going to spend this year and maybe there's just a hard line with we're not going to give a running back that sort of second contract. You know, he had a great playoff run, but if you look at the last four years, he's been banged up a decent amount. Like even if it is a hole on our roster, we just don't think the ROI is going to be there for us. So whatever the reason happened to be, I kind of get landing in this place.
- [26:03]
Rob Rang
Yeah, And I guess too the other part of it is and I've heard Howie Roseman say this time and time again over the years of like, you know the, the team building calendar does not stop after the draft. Right. You know they've done that time and time again. But before this point like it was just Emmanuel Wilson that they added. It was you know a nice like change of pace option Green Bay. But if Charbonnet can't go and let's say a team trade up ahead of you and you and, and sniped you on Jadarian Price, like what was, what was going to be the answer? I guess it might have been one of these guys that are still out there on the open market. You know, maybe you swing a trade for, for a veteran but at the end of the day, you know they, they were playing with fire a little bit. They didn't have a ton of draft, you know, draft capital to be able to, to move with. So you know it worked out in their favor if they really felt, felt like Price was the guy they had to come away with.
- [26:49]
Dane Brugler
So part of the reason I've softened on this a little bit is because again I thought that corner depth and defensive back was. We had kept to kind of mock Colton Hoods of the world to them at 32 and if they found players at those positions a little bit later, does that make the Price thing easier to stomach? Something that Dave brought up yesterday that I wanted to ask you about, the edge argument is a good one because their edge depth now with boy Maffe not there anymore and DeMarcus Lawrence was healthy last year, he's getting a little bit older. Is there an argument that that's the direction that they should have gone there and by bypassing that that's the mistake they made and how they allocated the draft capital in that moment I would be willing to hear that argument. I'm curious what you think about that.
- [27:27]
Advertisement Voice
That.
- [27:27]
Rob Rang
Yeah, you know, there were a couple of players that were kind of like oh this is their kind of guy. That could make some sense there. You know, Gabe Aus is what is certainly one that popped into my mind right away is like okay, he ended up being a second round pick. You know, he, he kind of fits that model. I think at the end of the day, like, you know, I'm looking at the rest of these guys that went off the board right away in terms of edge rush. No, I mean, yeah. So R. Mason Thomas, Cassius Howell, like I'm not sure if Howell was quite there their cup of tea but I think our Mason Thomas I think could have been someone Derek Moore, you know, with, with the way that he wins. Zion Young, probably he's a different kind of player. So yeah, I mean that's where, that's where the run kind of happened. TJ Parker went three picks into the second round. Yeah. So that's where the glut of those guys ended up going was in that first 15 picks of the second round. I guess that's, that's the gamble they took and they didn't really get a chance to put a heavy asset into that after the draft or after that pick.
- [28:25]
Dane Brugler
Your point about team building not stopping when the draft ends though. If you look at the available running back free agents and you look at the available edge free agents, I think you can make a solid argument that there are more rotational edge pieces on the market still than there are running backs that give you a little bit of giddy up that they needed. And so that also might be playing into the thought process. It's like we can go get Derek Barnett for 4 million bucks. He can eat up 15 snaps a game for us. There is no one on the free agent market that's going to give us what Jared Aaron Price does in the best case scenario. Maybe that's part of the thought process.
- [28:57]
Rob Rang
Mercenary Pass Rusher is one of the best archetypes that you could find right now on the, on the free agent market and at running back.
- [29:03]
Dane Brugler
My team sure hope so.
- [29:04]
Rob Rang
Yeah, well, yeah, they are. They are far less reliable at running back in that market.
- [29:09]
Dane Brugler
All right, let's take our first quick break here and then come back with a couple more of these ideas that we've been sitting with.
- [29:16]
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- [33:01]
Dane Brugler
All right, so you went love, I went price. What's your next one here?
- [33:04]
Rob Rang
All right, so now that we've slept on it, I think a couple of the teams that did not have a first round pick still kind of crushed it in the draft. I, I like what a couple of these teams did that did not have because so much focus has gone on a number of teams that had a bunch of picks. But I look at what the Colts did and I will give Chris Ballard, the GM of the Colts, a lot of credit here because C.J. allen is not their typical archetype of player. They are usually like hyper athletes. You know, the guys that are kind of off the radar a little bit. C.J. allen was falling down the board. Falling down the board and he's like, yeah, like he's going to be the green dot for us right away. He makes a lot of sense in Luana Rumo's defense from that standpoint. But I look at it all my intelligence, talking with people there was like, yeah, yeah, keep an eye on Edge Rush. Even like the night before, like as night one came to an end was like, yeah, like Edge Rush tomorrow. And the fact that it's like, all right, no, like C.J. allen fell down the board to us and we, we couldn't say no to that. I love that AJ Halsey, I think he could start right away and honestly, the bar, the body type is Pretty similar to Nick Cross and I liked his film more than I liked Nick Cross, you know, when he was coming out of Maryland a few years ago. Jalen Farmer in the fourth round, like those are three guys that to me off my evaluation, I think could potentially start for this team within the next couple of years. So I kind of like what the Colts did. And then I look at Buffalo and it's not sexy. They trade down a bunch of times. It's a bunch of just like solid players. TJ Parker, Davison Igbonosin, the corner from, from Ohio State has been volatile over his career, but I thought the film this year was better than last year. Jude Bowery's got some potential to tackle. From Boston College, Jalen Kilgore I think is a good scheme fit. Zane Durant, the, the undersized three technique from Penn State, a bunch of guys with high floor to be useful and then like the upside to maybe turn into something down the line. The only caveat is, and I know you've talked about this a lot, this team just like, can you get a star there? Like, do they have the needle mover there? Is that, is that going to come from this group? But at the end of the day, when you don't have the, when you don't have the first round pick and they were missing a second Buffalo, that's why, you know, they traded down and got all that extra capital. I still like what they did and I would say the same about Sean Payton and Denver. I really like what they, they didn't pick it till the third round, but I thought that they plugged a lot of holes and got guys that fit. I thought they got good value.
- [35:08]
Dane Brugler
I'm with you on the Colts 100%. Like if you look at what they did, I think they executed their plan perfectly to get an extra fourth to move down and get C.J. allen there because they, they, they traded with the Steelers who went up for Jeremy Bernard there. They use that extra fourth round pick to draft Betcher and get another linebacker because they needed more linebacker depth. And so the way they played the board and pass rush for them is another one where I think they could be in the veteran market trying to find one more body. There's a reason that they were chasing after Trey Hendrickson and didn't end up getting him. So I, that that's the one thing with, with the, with the Colts, but they had enough holes on defense where even if they had found a pass rusher there, you're going to be sitting there saying who the is going to play linebacker for the Colts this year? Like, I feel pretty good about how they handled it. It's funny that you feel that way about Buffalo because one of mine, when it happened in real time, it was kind of like, I like TJ Parker, TJ Parker's a good player. And then like a bonus in. I don't understand exactly how it fits, but like you get some of that, like the high end traits, like if it works out, he seems like he's going to be a good player. And so in real time, I was kind of like, okay, you know, the Bills had like a solid draft and then I sat with it for a little bit and I found myself more and more disappointed by what it looked like. And I think it was for a couple different reasons. One, I was wondering whether the new staff would lead to them chasing a different sort of player in this draft, specifically at a player like edge rusher. Right. So they, over the last five years, as you look at the guys they've drafted in the McDermott era, it's a lot of these, like high floor, big bodied players. Like, that's how many of them have come through that team. Boogie Basham, AJ Epanessa is that sort of player. Like Rousseau has a little bit more juice than that, but they've chased these sorts of guys. And so I'm thinking about what Denver felt like over the last couple years and the types of bodies and skill sets that they had been willing to embrace on the edge. And I'm like, all right, is this, are they going to be a Malachi Lawrence team now in a way that they wouldn't have been over the last two or three years and instead they trade down and draft TJ Parker and it's kind of like, okay, you know, like this is more of the same. And I think that's my frustration with where it landed is this feels like more of the same. And I think that's probably okay because Brandon Bean is not done like an abhorrent job in the way that some people make it out to be. But I look at the front seven specifically, and even the whole defense, you can extend this even to safety. And I really hoped that they would just seek out more juice across the defense this offseason. And that didn't happen. It was really just Bradley Chubb. So Bradley Chubb has to carry that mantle as like the guy who's going to make this thing feel different outside of whatever scheme. Changes happen. And I just don't know if I love that being the place that we landed with this team on that side of the ball.
- [37:52]
Rob Rang
It's funny because one of my comps, actually I think it might have been the first comp I had for TJ Parker was Bradley Chubb. So it made, it makes total sense that that's the team he ended up with. But I to me too, like as I looked at it, Buffalo Law, I mean they turned over so much of the roster, especially on defense with a lot. All right, like a lot of these Sean McDermott guys are out. We're moving on, especially in the, in the back seven. So to like trade down and we're just going to accumulate bodies and try and try and like build up a new look and a new feel. I get like the vibes aren't necessarily different, the style isn't, isn't necessarily different, but I always find it interesting, especially given the fact that you've got two, I shouldn't say two new coordinators because Joe Brady's been there. But when you've got got Joe Brady taking over and maintaining on offense and you bring in Jim Leonard, both guys have been in college in recent years. So like was there going to be any kind of through lines to some of the guys that they added in or some of the, you know, like new wrinkles from that way and we didn't necessarily see that. But I, I'm still, I'm cautiously optimistic here. I think they found a couple of nice like glue guys defensively. We'll see if, if that it's able to manifest itself with, you know, how it looks in the next two, three years.
- [38:59]
Dane Brugler
I think you're probably right in that like they, the responsibility involved with some of the picks was probably the right way to hand handle it. I just wanted to be a little bit more excited about it and I think my, one of my only quibbles is I'm just curious about the Egbonison thing because I, I just, I wonder like why cornerback depth in that spot was more important than trying. Like Kieran Crawford went six picks after Igbonison did and, and I just think that if they had done that instead, how would I feel about what the Bill's defensive roster looks like right now? I think I would feel better about it. Maybe, maybe I shouldn't. Right. Like maybe that was the right pick, but I just didn't expect that to be where they went with a second round pick in this draft given what they've invested at the position. And so I think I'm still sort of wrestling with like how I'M supposed to feel about this overall?
- [39:47]
Rob Rang
Yeah, I'll be interested to see. Like, you know, I know they they brought in D. Alford, but like, if you've got Benford, you got Hairston, who just spent a first on last year to add in Igbosan into that group. Who's playing inside of those three guys are on the field at the same time. That will be very interesting. But yeah, it's Buffalo will continue to be at the forefront of things. Obviously, they added DJ Moore and they didn't do too much else. They brought in Trent Sherfield in terms of the past game. So you're putting all your eggs in the DJ Moore basket to see if he's able to solve a lot of the issues that Josh Allen faced last year.
- [40:21]
Dane Brugler
I think it's just a team I wanted to be more excited about than I am. I think that that's where I land with it. Even if, again, it's some of the picks they made might have been the prudent way to go with some of those moves. All right, so I had the Bills are one of mine. That was my, like, now that I' now that I've slept on it, how do I feel about the Bills? So what's your next one?
- [40:36]
Rob Rang
All right, now that we've slept on it, I think you're going to like this one. I'm probably too intrigued to watch the four defenses in the NFC east this year. And when I think about it, it's. You have Vic Fangio and the Eagles, right? And, you know, hopefully it's like a. It's a healthy Jalen Carter. You swap out Jalen Phillips for Jonathan Granard. You mix in, you know, a healthy no Nolan Smith. You've got Zach Bond. Jihad Campbell elevates back into the starting lineup. With Nicobe Dean out the door, you bring in Reek Woolen to replace Adore Jackson. They still got some things to figure out at safety, but feel good about that defense. I'm really excited there. Then you have three new defensive coordinators and teams that added pivotal pieces to those units. So you look at the Giants, they bring in Denard Wilson, previously with the Titans. Before that, the Ravens and the Eagles. Denard's awesome. I'm really excited to see what he does with this defense. Obviously, you got Abdul Carter and Brian Burns. You bring in RFL Reese. You put him next to Trane Edmonds. I'm trying to think of, you know, because they've already said he's going to play linebacker. Arvo Reese, who is like the analog with John Harbaugh, like, in terms of like a guy that was used as a true. Like, all right, he's going to play off ball, then he's going to come down. The only one I could like, really feel good about was like, Malik Harrison. And I'm trying to, I don't know, like, who, who else would be that guy, Like Bart Scott maybe early on, but even still, like, I wasn't quite. That I couldn't quite figure out a guy that I felt good about with that comparison in that scheme. So. So it might be that they're going to do some different things than what they've done in the past. But the cornerback group, like, you have Paulson, Adibo, Greg Newsome, Drew Phillips, they draft Colton Hood in the second round. Deontay Banks, we'll see if he makes the roster. But you know, you're five deep at corner there. Javon Holland, Tyler Newman, Ardarius Washington, Jason Pinnock is the safety group. We know that they like to play in. Sub in that. In that defense. Like, I don't know, I'm kind of intrigued to see what that group looks like for the Giants. Dallas, you know, Christian Parker, like, you know, both the. I think you and I on the same page there, you know, in terms of who they're handing the reigns over to. But you get Caleb Downs as kind of like your fulcrum piece. You bring in Jalen Thompson, you have Malik Hooker still that cornerback group where you have Duron Bland, hopefully healthy, Kobe Durant, you come over from the Rams, and then you have two young guys in, Siobhan Ravel and Devin Moore who have like legit tools to be at like starting caliber outside corners as long as they can stay healthy. Overshone's healthy now. You bring in Dee Winters, you draft Jayhon, you draft Jayshon Barham from Michigan, you got the new look. Edge rush group, including the first round pick, Malkai Lawrence, you have Quinn and Williams, Kenny Clark inside. Like, that's a, that's kind of a fun, feisty defense that if they go from just being like one of the worst to like average, I think Christian Parker gets them there. This is a more feistier team. And then Washington, like Durante Jones, one of the quietest defensive coordinator hires in the league right now, comes over from the Brian Flores tree. And so everything we come to expect from that, I'm surprised that that coaching staff has not been poached over more often. So he comes over, Sonny Styles, drop him right in the middle. I think it's a really, really good schematic for it. Leo Chanel is kind of like your Andrew Van Ginkel and you have Frankie Luvu there to kind of do some of those similar kinds of things. You have the Rush group of Odafe Oway, Kayla Von Chason and Dorance Armstrong with Duron Payne and Charles Omenahu up front with Dietrich Wise and Javon Kinlaw, Tim Settle. Like, I like the depth up front. They still have some work to do on the back end, but I don't know, man. Like all four of these units, I'm, I'm kind of excited about.
- [43:49]
Dane Brugler
I totally agree. Like, I'm at least interested in watching it. And the Sunny Styles thing, I, I don't know. I'm curious how you felt about the Sonny Styles thing. That was one where even in real time I was like, this needed to happen. If this didn't happen, they are in a bad way at that position specifically because all they had was Chanel and Luvu. And so you have these guys that are best moving forward. Those are your two linebackers, like where one of the biggest issues with that team last year is that they had no range at linebacker, like zero. Bobby Wagner just cannot move that way at this point in his career. And so finding a guy with the juice that Styles has, like, it would almost felt like necessary for them to leave the top 10 with Sonny Styles, even if they're, you know, if Carl Tate had fallen to them, et cetera. Or whatever. So I, I'm with you on that. I'm excited to watch what that front seven feels like. Let's not talk about the back end. The other teams with the Giants, Lee Harrison's a good shout, but like even Malik Harrison was more used in that role in the wine of scrimmage and like run bot and like run for situations like he. So I don't know if there is like a proper analog. Like obviously, you know, Patrick Queen was a he use blitzer and so they're willing to have a guy that again, your best trait as an off ball linebacker in pass for situations is moving forward. And so I think that that's maybe something we think about with Arbo Reese, but I also just think that he's going to be everywhere when it's third and eight. And we said this in the moment when he got drafted. It's like imagine that team on third and eight. Like if he's going to be used as an on the line of scrimmage
- [45:17]
Rob Rang
player in those situations, very fun in that in those instances I'M very excited. Yeah.
- [45:21]
Dane Brugler
Yes. And. And I think that they will have a plan for him, and I think they will have a good plan for him. And so him playing off the ball on early downs and then being used as sort of a move around the formation pass rushing piece everywhere, like, in those moments, I'm very excited to see what that happens because I'm with you. I think that Dard Wilson, you know, in Tennessee, like, the cornerback room in that building over the last couple years, combined with the lack of edge rush talent, like, it's just hard to get by that way. I'm very excited to see him. Like you said, a team that goes four deep a corner and now has all of these pass R bodies. I think that we're going to be talking about Dinard Wilson much differently at the end of this year than we are right now as, like, a football collective. And in Dallas, it's like, yes. Like, I. I've been wanting to see this, and so the Cowboys is actually where I wanted to take this.
- [46:09]
Rob Rang
Okay.
- [46:10]
Dane Brugler
Now, now that I've sat with this, now that I've slept on it and just been thinking about the Cowboys over the last couple days, I don't think they could have positioned themselves any better in the last 12 months than they have based on where they were. Like, if you told me 18 months ago that the Cowboys are going to hire Brian Schottenheimer as their head coach and they are going to trade Micah Parsons, what they now have, where they now are on. On the opposite. On. On the other side of both of those things, I could not feel better about what the Dallas Cowboys are on the other side of those two choices than I do right now.
- [46:50]
Advertisement Voice
Now.
- [46:52]
Dane Brugler
I really don't think I could.
- [46:53]
Rob Rang
I think that's totally fair. I think the. The. The only thing that has me a little bit worried is the George Pickens thing is still kind of like in the orbit, right? And that's like, all right. Like, that feels like it just needs, like, one spark to completely blow up, and then to me, the other big one. And this is. This has been really big with this team is the. Can everybody stay healthy? Like, Bland has faced injury issues. Overshone has faced injury issues. I mentioned those two corners. They, you know, making sure that those young guys can stay healthy. Like, like, if they're able to stay healthy, you feel really good about it. But if not like that, that's where the house of cards can come falling down.
- [47:29]
Dane Brugler
It's not perfect by any stretch. They're still thin on the interior, the defensive Line they, I think for all of this to come together, kind of need Malachi Lawrence to pop in year one. Like if you look at the rest of that room like they're. They need to thread some needles. They need stuff to come together. And the other one I had was this feels like a one year shot with Pickens, right? Like your offense has constructed, this is probably the last year you have with this. But I think on so many different fronts, like they've been creative in ways they weren't before this. They've been situationally aggressive in how they've built the team in ways they weren't before this. I think that the choices they made and how they've assembled the staff, you know there were mistakes, right? Like, I think we've seen this a few times recently where we have the first time head coach hire the former head coaches as defensive coordinators, kind of like a high floor move and then realize pretty quickly that, that the floor is lower than you want it to be. But I think by going out and doing what they did with Christian Parker, they've corrected in the right way. And now I think that the defensive staff and the choices there mirror the choices they made with the offensive staff. Because part of my concern with Brian Schottenheimer as a head coaching hire is that when is Brian Schottenheimer been like a sought after play caller that is going to be one of those difference makers in that role when you elevate him to being a head coach. But even the moment when they hired Clayton Adams and then when they got, when they went and get Connor Riley as their offensive line coach, like I think they did such a good job of building out the rest of that offensive staff in order to kind of supplement what he was bringing to the table. And then you saw the results from them last year and now I feel like that level of kind of ingenuity and finding the right minds in the right places has extended to the defense. And then you add in what they did in the draft and it just, again, I just feel as good about them as I possibly could after some of those seismic decisions that they made that I think there was a lot of consternation about. And we can still argue about whether trading Micah Parsons was the right move, but I think the ways they've used those resources in the aggregate, they've done it about as well as you could have hoped.
- [49:31]
Rob Rang
Yeah, I, I think at the end of the day where I land with that group is just we feel really good about Dak Prescott when he's healthy. We feel really good that, that, hey, that, that offensive line, like that run game, Clay, you know, they, they, they secured Javante Williams. Like all right, like all systems go. It's just the, the. And look, this is the case with every team, right? Like if Patrick Mahomes goes down, like, all right, you know, things are, have unfolded.
- [49:52]
Dane Brugler
I think there are more realistic concerns with this team though than there are with Simon. Right.
- [49:57]
Rob Rang
I didn't even mention Javante Williams. Like he was healthy last year, but that was, that was a big issue for him in Denver. Like you go like literally through the offensive line. Like that's been an issue. So that's honestly like my only hang up. Otherwise there's no reason why that team shouldn't be in contention to, to represent the NFC when, when it comes to.
- [50:15]
Dane Brugler
And I think that's where I land with it. Are there reasons to think that this is more fragile than you want it to be, especially over a multi year period? 100%. But I think all I really wanted from this team with this quarterback and some of the other talent that they had was is your best good enough to win the Super Bowl? If it all comes together for you, are you good enough to get there? And I think with the Cowboys right now the answer is yes. Like, I really do think it is. And I just don't think I would have believed that if you were to rewind a year and a half into the past. And so I'm just surprised to have landed in this place with them. And I think getting a guy like Caleb Downs and having that be potentially the skeleton key that allows the Christian Parker thing to come together in a way similar to what happened with the Philly defense in that draft class they had two years ago. I don't know, I just feel like the heights that this team can get to are pretty damn high. And I think you'd feel pretty good about threading that needle based on where you were. If you were a Cowboys fan, if
- [51:17]
Rob Rang
you were watching that defense, you know, a year ago, to think that we'd be sitting here on, you know, in late April and saying, you know what, like there is a non zero chance that this defense ranks higher in like EPA per drive than the offense does next year. Like that's not with it. Like that's not non zero.
- [51:36]
Dane Brugler
I think you better hope that's not the case though. I think the offense has to be like the second best offense in the league that's come together in the way that we're talking about.
- [51:43]
Rob Rang
Let's Say they have a slight drop off, they get down to 11 and then you say that the, the Cowboys are the. Or the defense is the as a top 10 defense. Like it's not completely out of the question.
- [51:52]
Dane Brugler
No, it's not. But I think for them to be the team we're talking about this has they need Guyton to stay healthy. They need like it all to come together and they need to be a like, oh man, like the Cowboys are coming to town sort of offense. And I think that has to happen for them to make good on what we're talking about here. All right, we're going to take one more quick break and then come back and hit a couple more of these.
- [52:16]
Rob Rang
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Dane Brugler
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Rob Rang
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Dane Brugler
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Rob Rang
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Rob Rang
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- [53:57]
Dane Brugler
All right, so now that you've slept on it, what's one more thought that you have about this draft?
- [54:03]
Rob Rang
All right, well, now that we've slept on it, I think our focus, and I mean this collectively on consensus boards may have gone like a little too far.
- [54:13]
Dane Brugler
I was I was hoping you were going to bring this up so I didn't have to.
- [54:16]
Rob Rang
And I say this like I, I think that consensus boards are awesome. Like you know the one that I go, I go to Arif all the time. Arif Hassan does an outstanding job with it. Like and it's absolutely a useful tool especially for us on the outside. But a few things, especially when it comes to like the NFL teams and like their usage of the consensus boards, not every big board is created equal. Right. Like so you know what Dane sees, what you know Daniel Jeremiah sees is different than you know, the, the 118th big board might see. Right. Not every big board serves the same purpose. I referenced it earlier like way that I do my board and like my top 100 is more about like looking into the future. What I think guys are going to be. I know for a fact and guys are very public about this. When I put out my top 100, I'm trying to predict the top 100 players that go off the board. I don't care about that. That's what mock drafts are for. So that's what, when I do mine that's, that's not the way I go about it. So to just go strictly off those rankings, that, that kind of muddies up the data a little bit. The other thing is like teams don't have 300 players on the board board. The teams have like 140 on the board. 175 maybe. Like I know some teams like below 100. So it's like you don't have this huge, huge board. It's for a number of different reasons. Teams have all their, their specific guidelines and preferences. You know akeem Ezador went 22 overall. He goes to the Chargers. He would have never got, never gone 24 overall to the Cleveland Browns net. Like Andrew Berry is not selecting a 25 year old pass rusher in the first round. That's not going to happen. Some teams completely avoid character and medical red flags. Other teams actively seek them out because they see it as a value play. You know some teams have extremely strict body types on like athletic testing thresholds. You and Dave. I listened. I, I wanted to make sure I got all of my like thoughts in order for this show before I listened to yesterday's. So I listened to it just before this and you and Dave talked about, about the Panthers on yesterday's show and like the through line on size and watching those guys come through, you know as these names card come through, man, this is a big draft Class that's been the case over the course of the Dan Morgan era. There is that they don't. They don't take small guys. Since Dan Morgan has been the general manager, they don't select small players. And so everybody's.
- [56:29]
Dane Brugler
The Panthers don't select small players.
- [56:32]
Rob Rang
Exactly. Right. At least in the last two. The last three drafts now. So at the end of the day, yeah, like, everybody. And that's not even taking account, like, team needs and. And things of that nature. So these boards are really, really small. And, you know, I know, like, you point to Nate Borkature going in. You know, where he went in the draft. I know that there were some teams that were picking right behind Jacksonville that Borkature was ready. Was. Was ready to go, you know, and so at the end of the day, if you. You feel convicted, this is our guy. Like, I. I love Keldrick Falk. Right? Love Keldrick Falk. I had him very, very high. Would I have taken him that high? No, I would have tried. If I. If. Let's say I was picking ninth, I would have tried to train, you know, try and move down. I would, you know, do what. Do whatever I got to do. If that's the guy I want, that's the guy I want. I, you know, bite the bullet a little bit. But at the end of the day, like, the teams are working within some very specific guidelines. Yeah, I. I think that we can go a little overboard on criticizing a team like San Francisco or Jacksonville. Now, you don't want to live in that world. You don't want to consistently draft guys, like, outside of the. You know, outside of what that consensus is. But at the end of the day, like, I think you got to stay true to your convictions.
- [57:41]
Dane Brugler
Two questions. One, do you think this draft led to more of these moments than a typical draft would? Because it feels like two things are happening at the same time. The analytics community, which offers a ton of value, of which I am a. A. Let's call me an enthusiast, if not an active participant. I don't know enough to be an active participant. I appreciate the work that a lot of those people do, and I abide by many of the principles they land on. Right. Yes, I think they are. They have gained a voice when it comes to football media, and, like, there it is a louder voice than it probably would have been 10 years ago on the Internet. That coming at the same time that this draft class comes along feels like we're pulling at this thing from two different directions, and it's snapped in the middle, middle, right.
- [58:27]
Rob Rang
Yeah. I think that it's a great point. And it was, this was a class. Everybody saw players a lot differently. And you know, there's. Now that the draft is over, we're hearing like analysts, reporters, like insiders all leak out. You know, oh, look, this team had Deshaun Stribling over Malachi Lemon. This team had this guy over that guy and that. But that's how it is in, in every draft. And you, you talk to coaches like you, you get this is that, you know, people I think would be taken aback by how often a coach, a gm, a high ranking executive might see your favorite, you know, these, these three players in a stack and say, like, oh, this guy's not even close and he might go ahead to that player once we get into draft day. And that's the part of it too, is that each team, you have all these, all these evaluators under one roof. They don't all see these players the same thing. It's the same way. And so the, the consensus for. When John lynch says the only consensus we care about is like our consensus, I get what he's saying and I also get why the reaction to it has been, has been the way it is. But I just, I think that the, the wholesale, oh, if you're not going off the consensus board, you're doing it wrong sentiment, I think that's probably a bridge too far.
- [59:36]
Dane Brugler
The other question that I had for you in that vein, is there a point in the draft where you think it becomes even less important to abide by the wisdom of the crowd's value that the consensus board provides?
- [59:48]
Rob Rang
I think that's a good question. I honestly think that it's probably most important and it's because it's the easiest. Easiest is probably not the right word. But when you're picking early, there's just more people are talking about more of these players, right? So you can get more intel. You have a more understanding of, hey, like the Pittsburgh Steel, if Makai Lemon falls to The Steelers at 20, they are going to take Makai Lemon even though everyone thinks they're going to take a tackle. Right? You know, if everyone knows, like, oh, Kaden Proctor, he's probably not falling past Detroit. So if you want Proctor, you got to get ahead of him or you got to take them earlier than that. When you get to the sixth round, when you get to the third round, you get to the fourth round, that type of intel becomes a little bit harder. And you know, so much of it, you're dependent on your pro scouts, your pro scouting staff who have a deep understanding of all the teams that are inside their area. So every scout, you know, responsible for four teams, six teams, eight teams, whatever, depending on the, depending on the franchise, they are the ones that are going to be the experts on those teams that they are responsible for. And they say like, hey, these are their needs. This is what you know. And then that's when they plug all of that stuff into their own models to try and project forward. Hey, this is where we think a guy's going to come off the board to be so stubborn about it. Say like, oh, we're not going to pay attention to any of it. That's wrong. That's an extreme. But I think that if you're Jacksonville, you're the Rams. I know the Rams are like getting crushed. They traded three picks to go up and get C.J. daniels, a six year wide receiver from Miami. Like he's a good player. He's had a history of foot injuries that have lingered for like three years. But like I, you know, I get it. It's. But to me, like I, it's, it's. I find it hard, hard to argue with that knowing like the, the work that I guess goes into it and through the entire process for, and how it's going to look different for all 32.
- [61:26]
Dane Brugler
All right, so I have like one and a half more. The one I absolutely wanted to mention now that I've slept on it, is the Brown's biggest problem over the last five years simply about volume, which comes
- [61:41]
Rob Rang
down to one thing, one decision.
- [61:43]
Dane Brugler
Check. Sure.
- [61:43]
Rob Rang
Yeah, it's a.
- [61:46]
Dane Brugler
Is, is that, is that if we move. I was going to say if we move past that decision. Aside from that, aside from the franchise crippling choice that this regime made, you look at the Browns over the la over during the Andrew Barry era. I think this is right and I, I. You can double check my math after we're done, but I think this is really right. In the Andrew Barry era. So since 2020, okay, the Browns have had seven top 75 picks before the last two years. From 2020 to 2024, they had seven picks in the top 75. Jed Wills, Grant Delpit, Greg Nome, J. Okay. Martin Emerson, Cedric Tolman, Michael Hall. It's not great, but it's not horrendous. That hit rate in the top 75. And then when you look at picks outside of the top 75 overall, I'm sure you have historical hit rate data on that. What is it, 20% outside of the top 75 for a guy to turn into a starting caliber player.
- [62:48]
Rob Rang
Something like that. Yeah.
- [62:50]
Dane Brugler
So the idea that like we, we think about David Bell and Anthony Schwartz and all these guys, it's like, let's look at other third. We only talk about that because they were like the first picks that they made in those drafts. I think we'd be less fixated on them if we had first and second round picks to talk. So they had seven top 75 picks over the last five drafts. Do you know how many top 75 picks they've had in the last two drafts combined?
- [63:15]
Rob Rang
Probably the same amount. Eight. Yeah, more.
- [63:18]
Dane Brugler
They've had one more in the past two drafts than they had over the previous five combined. Those top 75 picks over the last two drafts. Mason. Mason. Graham. Carson. Swessinger, Quidsad Junkins, Harold Fannin, Spencer Fano, Casey Concepcion, DENZEL Boston, Emmanuel McNeil.
- [63:33]
Rob Rang
Warren.
- [63:33]
Sponsor Voice
Warren.
- [63:35]
Dane Brugler
You feel pretty good about that. And so is, is, is this, is it the case that the Browns actual problem is not that Andrew Barry doesn't know what he's doing, it's the fact that he had no picks to work with for the first five years of his tenure. And now that I slept on it, I think that might be the case.
- [63:52]
Rob Rang
I, I wholeheartedly agree with you. And that's why he's still there, to be honest. Like, I think that, look, it's unfortunate how things kind of ended with he and Stefanski and how, you know, that like a move it was felt like had to be made there. But, but Andrew Berry being the general manager of Cleveland, of the Cleveland Browns, like that, that to me is a well deserved role. Like I tell you, he's, he's, he has not done an abor job. Especially if you kind of remove that, that decision. You say like, hey, if that wasn't him, then, you know, you look at the rest of the body of work and I, I don't think that it's been terrible.
- [64:24]
Dane Brugler
Yeah, I just, and I, I, I said this in the moment when they kept him and I said it in the moment when they kept him in Stefansky two years ago ago. Can you make an argument that this, even as we transition from one era to the other, these are the right people to be in these roles. NFL teams often don't do that. Right. Like it's, there's a stink on the previous regime to the point where you're just like, yeah, it's just easier to clean house and start over. Even if we think this guy is as good or Better as whoever his replacement is going to be. NFL teams do that a lot. They chose not to do that with the gm. And so maybe this is colored by the fact that I think Spencer Fano and Casey Concepcion are my two favorite players in the draft. But you look at what they got in that hall last year and the potential of this sort of class and kind of how it fell. I don't know, man. It seems like the Browns have done an okay job of like digging themselves out of the grave over the last two drafts. And I think a huge part of that is the fact that it helps when you have picks.
- [65:16]
Rob Rang
I agree. Can I throw one more at you? You sure can, and it's kind of riding off of you. And Dave talked about it yesterday, so that's why I bumped it down my list because I was going to bring it up. Now that I've slept on it, I think I might want to buy some stock in the Titans. I think I'm kind of buying what they're selling and it's probably going to come back to bite me. I think Salah raises the floor and part of it could just be like hopium for me because they drafted Keldrick Falk. It's really funny that Keltrick. One of my lead comp for Falk over the summer after studying from last year, was Reek Armstead. And I'm like, of course he ends up there. But to me, he is going to be. It's going to be the polar opposite of what he was asked to do in that Auburn defense where it's like three man, like contain rushes, keep these mobile SEC quarterbacks in the pocket. And now like just pin your ears back and go, go, go, go. Yeah, we're gonna feel. I'm gonna feel one way or the other about my Kelder Falk evaluation and projection pretty quickly. I don't think I don't have to wait long on that one. But like, you add John Franklin Myers and Solomon Thomas and Jordan Elliott, it's like, yep, these guys all know, like, how to play in the scheme. They've added a lot of guys to the secondary draft. Anthony Hill, you guys talked about it all yesterday, but, um, yeah, I'm cautiously optimistic. I don't think they're going to win, you know, 11 games this year, but color me intrigued by the Tennessee Titans.
- [66:33]
Dane Brugler
I said this in the moment when we were talking about Keldrick Falk, but I was kind of like, I don't know, man. Right. Like, man. And part of it is because of the way he was used and like you can go whole games without seeing him get more than three reps as like a wide, not like a wide edge rusher in like a pass first situation. But even in the moments where he was doing that, I was kind of like, I don't know, like I just, how do I feel about that? This and then I watched the Georgia game and I was like, all right. Like, it's like you look at the frame, you look at the testing, you look at the age. Like I was like, all right, I, I'd bet on this. And so get them at 31 the way that they did, I think they have to feel pretty good about that. So I have come around on Keldrick Falk just for you.
- [67:12]
Rob Rang
Now I remember when I came on the show last, before the draft last year, we talked about Shemar Stewart and I was like very out on Shamar Stewart. And I know that there's been a lot of comps from Shamar Stewart to Kelk Falk and I, I, I could not get that. To me, like they are not the same. So I am, I'm really excited to see what he looks like here in the NFL.
- [67:31]
Dane Brugler
Kel Falk is just so much smoother than Shamar Stewart as a player. Like, it just like you watch Kel fall play and there is like a smoothness to him and I, that, that's just such a rigid player. There's, they're very different to me, very much so. And so I, I, I definitely understand the appeal of a Keldrick Falk and the excitement about him. So we'll see about the Titans. I, I have like a one year moratorium on getting excited about the Titans. I'm gonna, I'll, I'll let somebody else get excited about the 2026 Titans. Warranted.
- [67:57]
Rob Rang
Yeah. Look, I don't have to talk about it every day, so I don't have to live it like you do, but I'll just, I'll just be here in the corner. I'll just be sitting here watching. I'll be cautiously optimistic and my ears will perk up every time I might have to watch them on tv.
- [68:09]
Dane Brugler
All right, that was fun. That's all we got for today. Very good to have you. I'm sorry we did not have you on during the pre draft process. I do not know how I did that as somebody who schedules all this shit. So thank you very, very much for taking the time after the draft to do this. I know that hopefully you and Dane and a lot of other people will be getting some sleep here over the next week or so when things quiet down. Please tell everyone even with the draft being over where they can check out all the work that you guys are doing over there at All City.
- [68:35]
Rob Rang
Yep. You can check out the Die Hard Draft Guide. It's available. You can go in, I write, I wrote up hundreds of players bios on on hundreds more. So go check that out. The $26. It can get you just the draft stuff even if you're not a member of one of our markets across the country. I've got the All NFL Draft newsletter perfectly. That's, that's free. Get an email from me once, once a inbox and it's anything that's percolating in my mind, draft related. It's going to be a lot of like team building stuff and philosophy and things of that, you know, position specific. So I'll be doing a lot of that this summer as I start to watch this 2027 class that everybody's excited about.
- [69:09]
Dane Brugler
Awesome. All right, well, we will be back tomorrow with our last thought about the 2026 NFL Draft and that's projecting forward a little bit. Now that the draft is over, what are the biggest questions that we still have remaining? One of them is who's going to play on the right side of the offensive line for those Tennessee Titans? So we're going to have a lot of that over the next couple days. Looking forward to that conversation. And then on Friday, I believe we're going to start our buying or selling offseason series that we did last year, breaking the league up into four groups, which I loved doing a year ago. Very excited to bring those back again this year. For now, that is all we got. Sincerely appreciate you guys listening. We'll talk to you very soon. Thanks for tuning in. Make sure to hit that subscribe or follow button so you never miss an episode. If you enjoyed what you heard, please like comment and leave a rating. We'll see you next time. It's smart to always have a few financial goals and a really smart one. You can set earning cash back on what you buy every day. And with Discover you can get this. Discover automatically matches all the cash back you've earned at the end of your first year. Seriously, all of it. And we trust you to make smart decisions. After all, you listen to the show. See terms@discover.com credit card.
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Rob Rang
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Dane Brugler
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Dane Brugler
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