The Athletic Football Show – March 4, 2026

Strengths and Weaknesses of the 2026 NFL Free Agent Class

Episode Overview

On this episode, host Robert Mays is joined by Derrik Klassen and Dave Helman to deliver an in-depth, high-level breakdown of the 2026 NFL free agent class just days before free agency opens. The trio gives a position-by-position analysis of where the market is strong and where it’s thin, highlights recent breaking news, and considers how this class compares to previous years. They weave in sharp, data-driven perspectives and storytelling, with a conversational and sometimes playful tone.

Key News & Immediate Reactions

Drew Dahlman Retirement Shocks Bears’ Plans

• [05:57] Robert Mays: Announces Bears center Drew Dahlman is retiring at 27, thro wing the Bears’ well-laid offensive line plans into chaos.

  “I mean, just a massive blow to the Bears offseason plans... A massive blow to what the strength of this roster was supposed to be.”

• [07:20] Dave Helman: Emphasizes how unpredictable roster building can be.

  “You could do everything right...You can’t predict what 90 different human beings are going to do. It’s really, really hard to put a championship contender together.”

• [08:14] Derek Klassen: Notes the depth of this year’s center market offers Bears a silver lining.

  “It’s a weirdly deep center free agency class... there should be enough options for them to replace [Dahlman].”

Bears’ Replacement Center Options

• [09:04] Robert Mays: Bears sniffing around Tyler Linderbaum (pricey), but also hosting Tyler Biadasz (more economical).

  “If you were a Chicago Bears fan ...the football ramifications of this, they are pretty intense.”

• [11:00] Robert Mays: Linderbaum is a perfect schematic fit but would strain Bears’ budget.
• [11:37] Derek Klassen: “If they did want to pay up the nose for Linderbaum, specifically because it makes so much sense, I would get it. Even if...that’s probably their entire budget for the off-season.”

Colts Tag Daniel Jones, Let Alec Pierce Leave

• [13:00] Robert Mays: Colts placed the transition tag on Daniel Jones ($37M), giving them right of first refusal but no compensation if he leaves.

  "This entire thing, to me, Derek, is extremely frustrating."

• [14:22] Derek Klassen: Skeptical of giving $37M to Jones—a limited track record, injury worries.

  “Paying Daniel Jones this amount of money...is a little bit scary as is. Especially terrifying coming off the injury.”

• [15:20] Dave Helman: More sympathetic; sees the Colts as "up shit creek" with few good QB options.
• [16:53] Robert Mays: Warns against self-preservation decisions:

  “The biggest missteps...is that they look at this decision and be like, well, I know what this is, so I have to have this thing that I know... when in reality, why wouldn’t you find the next Daniel Jones?”

Tagging Breece Hall on Rebuilding Jets

• [21:37] Dave Helman: Spicy take on the fairness of tagging RBs on losing teams:

  “If you have not sniffed the postseason over a running back’s time on your team... we should be able to bar teams from tagging guys like that.”

• [22:29] Robert Mays: Backs the idea, calls for a competitiveness threshold for applying the tag.

Jonathan Greenard Available via Trade

• [25:19] Robert Mays: Vikings are shopping edge rusher Jonathan Greenard, a productive 1B rusher, for a Day 2 pick; several teams should call.

Big-Picture Analysis: Free Agent Class 2026

Market Dynamics & Top-End Talent

• [34:29] Robert Mays: Statistical context—only about 7-10 non-QBs may break $18.3M AAV this year, down from past cycles.

  “If you actually look at the numbers... we are going to see the top of the free agent group not be rewarded like we typically do.”

• [36:15] Dave Helman: Mike Evans' payday is a wild card for WRs.
• [37:34] Derek Klassen: Instead, the class is deepest and most valuable for mid-tier, “stitching the roster together” types, especially at positions like RB, linebacker, and interior O-line.

Positional Strengths: Where Value Lies

Running Back (RB)

• [37:34] Derek Klassen:
  • Vibrant, multi-tiered market.
  • Home-run hitters (Kenneth Walker, Travis Etienne) and reliable grinders (Tyler Allgeier).
  • Allgeier compared to “the next Michael Turner” (Mays [39:37]).
  • Quality depth: Rashad White, Kenneth Gainwell highlighted as bargain RB2 types (Dave [41:09]).

Interior Offensive Line (iOL, Center/Guard)

• [57:41] Robert Mays:
  • Deeper and more appealing than last year’s “dark” market.
  • Multiple viable second-contract starters: Connor McGovern, Alijah Vera-Tucker, Zion Johnson, Dylan Parham, Ed Ingram, Isaac Seumalo.
  • Versatility at many price points, from proven starters to developmental bets.

Linebacker (LB)

• [37:34] Derek Klassen:
  • “Every kind of linebacker you need is on the board.”
  • Three-down types, blitzers, run-stoppers; something for every system and price.

Safety

• [45:23] Dave Helman:
  • Deep class with 10–12 startable options.
  • Less star power at the top, but strong depth: Cam Curl, Jalen Thompson, Nick Cross, Reed Blankenship, etc.
  • Low prices likely, thanks to a loaded draft class at safety as well.

  “If I can get these guys even cheaper because NFL teams would rather draft their safety of the future, that’s fine with me.” ([48:45] Dave)

Tight End (TE)

• [41:44] Dave Helman:
  • Multiple contributing archetypes available: Dallas Goedert, David Njoku, Darren Waller, Isaiah Likely, Charlie Kolar—who's a Helman favorite.

  “Charlie Kolar is absolutely in the middle of my shortlist.” ([43:14] Dave)

Edge Rusher

• [58:57] Robert Mays:
  • Not as top-heavy as 2024, but deep: Hendrickson, Oweh, Jalen Phillips, Khalil Mack, Joey Bosa, Quiddy Pay.
  • Plenty of rotation/third edge types (e.g., Kingsley Enagbare).
  • Value in both veteran “prove-it” guys and young rotational players.

Cornerback (CB)

• [50:00] Robert Mays:
  • Few true CB1s—market drops after top names.
  • Plenty of CB2/CB3 options: Monteric Brown, Eric Stokes, Cordale Flott, Rasul Douglas, Cater Kohu, D. Alford, Cheeto Awuzie, Kobe Durant, Josh Jobe (“playoff glasses”).

  “I love the corner class as long as I’ve made my peace that this guy’s going to drive me crazy at times, because that’s anybody but a lockdown CB1.” ([52:36] Dave)

Positional Weaknesses: Buyer Beware

Wide Receiver (WR)

• [62:42] Dave Helman:

  “The wide receivers make me nauseous.”

  • Slightly better than 2025, but thin beyond Mike Evans, Jauan Jennings, Romeo Doubs, Alec Pierce.
  • Pierce expected to command crazy money (Mays [66:34]), and Dobbs could be an overpay relative to production.
  • Mays: “This will be an annual thing and this wide receiver group is better than last year.” ([62:45])
  • Role/fit will be everything—don’t expect many “needle-movers” on their own.

Offensive Tackle (OT)

• [68:04] Robert Mays:
  • Annual “wasteland” for starting-caliber tackles.
  • Rashid Walker, Braden Smith, Jermaine Eluemunor, and Jawan Taylor (released by the Chiefs) headline a thin group.

  “If you have a pulse and you are starting caliber tackle hitting free agency, that's probably what you were going to make.”

Interior Defensive Line (IDL)

• [68:33] Robert Mays:
  • Perhaps the weakest class in memory—John Franklin-Myers stands alone at the top.

  “Holy moly. It’s brutal. It’s John Franklin Myers and no. 1.”

  • After that? “There isn’t even an opportunity to hand out misguided contracts on the interior of the defensive line this year.” ([69:12])
  • Plenty of cheap, one-dimensional nose tackles, but true starters/difference-makers are almost nonexistent.
  • Derek: “I think it’s the worst in the class by a mile.” ([68:54])

Notable Quotes & Moments

• Aldi Analogy:

  “This is an Aldi free agency class. ...You go to Aldi... holy crap, all of this was 60 bucks. There are some deals to be found at the Aldi...”
  —Dave Helman [03:59]

• On Colts, Daniel Jones, and QB Scarcity:

  “The uncomfortable truth is that self-preservation is a big part of this... But I think you’ve got to make the decision that gives you the best chance of not getting fired in December.”
  —Dave Helman [16:43] “The Colts have moved past optimization.”
  —Robert Mays [20:35]

• Running Back Tag Policy Proposal:

  “If you have not sniffed the postseason over a running back’s time on your team... I think we should be able to bar teams from tagging guys like that.”
  —Dave Helman [21:37]

• Charlie Kolar Tight-End Appreciation:

  “Charlie Kolar is absolutely in the middle of my shortlist.”
  —Dave Helman [43:14] “If you’re paying Cade Otton $10 million a year, would you rather just pay Charlie Kolar $3 million a year?”
  —Robert Mays [43:41]

• Free Agent Edge “Value Guys”:

  “If he’s part of your defensive line rotation, I think that he’s a winning player. I really do like him.”
  —Robert Mays on Kingsley Enagbare [61:12]

Important Timestamps & Segments

• Retirement of Drew Dahlman, Bears impact: [05:57–11:37]
• Colts and Daniel Jones drama, Alec Pierce market: [13:00–18:38]
• Breece Hall and RB tag policy rant: [21:37–24:36]
• Jonathan Greenard trade talk: [25:19–29:29]
• Market Analysis/Market Size: [34:29–37:34]
• RB/OL/LB positional strengths: [37:34–45:16]
• Safety & Tight End deep dive, Charlie Kolar: [45:23–44:37]
• Cornerback depth and value: [50:00–53:52]
• Live on-pod: Kyler Murray to be released: [53:52–56:24]
• Interior Offensive Line and Edge analysis: [57:41–61:12]
• Weaknesses – WR, OT, IDL discussions: [62:42–71:28]

Tone & Vibe

• Insightful, opinionated, occasionally contrarian.
• Conversational and humorous, mixing analogies (Aldi, running back tag “policies”) and “fan’s-eye” perspective.
• Self-aware about NFL team-building realities and market inefficiencies.
• Willing to argue, but with mutual respect and levity.

Summary Takeaways

• 2026 free agency is an "Aldi class" – not headline-star heavy, but rich with value in certain position groups, especially for smart, picky shoppers.
• Strengths: Running back, linebacker, interior OL, safety, and edge/rotation options. Many “role player”/mid-tier starters, especially for scheme fits or teams wanting to fill out a roster efficiently.
• Weaknesses: Top-end WRs, true OT1s, and especially impactful interior defensive linemen are in very short supply.
• Notable market trends: Top deals will be fewer and more conservative, with much of the real BAU action happening in the “middle-class” free agent tiers.
• Key news (Dahlman retirement, Colts’ tag saga) will directly impact team priorities right as negotiations open.
• Safety & tight end markets are notably deep for all roster-building styles.
• QB dominoes (Kyler Murray now free, Daniel Jones overpaid) will shift downstream priorities for several squads.

Coming Up on The Athletic Football Show

• Tomorrow: Historical comps — mapping 2026 FAs to recent archetypes (hits and misses).
• Friday: Free agency superlatives — bargains, best fits, buyer-beware picks.
• Monday (Live!): 5-hour YouTube special reacting in real time as free agency news breaks.

“If you are a team with a modicum of a need at quarterback with any sort of ambition to be a contender – for the price it would cost you, why the hell not [sign Kyler Murray]? I don't understand if decent teams are not interested."
—Dave Helman [55:29]