Super Bowl LX Preview

Summary

The Athletic Football Show: Super Bowl LX Preview

Podcast Date: February 6, 2026
Hosts: Robert Mays, Derrik Klassen, Dave Helman
Teams: New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks

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Episode Overview

This Super Bowl LX preview brings together Robert Mays, Derrik Klassen, and Dave Helman to analyze Patriots-Seahawks from every possible angle. The hosts set the stage with the storylines, explore how both underdog teams arrived here, and dissect critical matchups on both sides of the ball. They offer Xs & Os breakdowns, debate MVP narratives, highlight coaching evolutions, and make final game predictions—never losing sight of how rare and unpredictable this Super Bowl matchup is.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Unlikeliest Super Bowl Matchup

• Both the Patriots & Seahawks entered the season as huge underdogs (60-1 and 80-1 odds, both with preseason over/unders at 8.5 wins) ([04:40]).
• New Eras: Both franchises transitioned from legendary coaches (Belichick, Carroll) to new defensive-minded ones (Vrabel, McDonald), and the results "could not have gone better" ([06:19]).
• Host Take:

  "This is the most unlikely Super Bowl in recent memory...it's fitting for such a strange year." — Robert Mays ([04:40])

2. How the Teams Got Here

Seahawks

• Defense and Nontraditional QB Play:

  "If you told everybody...they're not going to find a superstar quarterback...but they'll also be back in the Super Bowl, I think a lot of people would have been like, 'How?'" — Dave Helman ([08:48])

• Sam Darnold Redemption: Seattle leaned into Darnold as a 2nd-chance QB rather than seeking a superstar, opening up roster-building possibilities ([09:15]).
• Team-Building Philosophy: Mike McDonald's philosophy might spark a league-wide rethink toward defensive coaches and 'scrap heap' QBs ([10:04]).

Patriots

• Defense Came Alive Post-Bye: It took the defense until week 15 (vs. Bills) to "find its gear," but then both offense (MVP-level Drake May) and defense peaked ([14:23]).
• Changed AFC Landscape: Injuries and downturns for the Chiefs, Ravens, etc., "opened paths" for both New England and Denver ([15:35]).
• MVP-Contender Drake May:

  "He’s going to be in the thick of those [best QB] conversations...Early success can do so much for a guy." — Derek ([13:56])

3. When Did We Start to Believe?

• Patriots: Week 15 vs. Bills for Dave; mid-December when rivals faltered for Derek ([14:23], [15:35]).
• Seahawks: Key moments included the Rams comeback, Max Brosmer "defense-eating" game, and early offensive flashes ([17:01], [18:47], [20:37]).
• Host differences: Robert bought in much earlier, seeing Seattle’s offensive plan gel in week 2 ([19:01]).

4. Seahawks Defense vs Patriots Offense

Pressure, Protection, and Explosives

• Seattle’s Pass Rush Prowess: Patriots O-line is vulnerable, and "Seattle might have the best front among all playoff teams they’ve faced" ([31:51]).
• Will Campbell’s Sacks: 8.5 of 11.5 sacks he’s allowed came versus long-armed edge players—Seattle’s specialty ([31:15]).
• Mays on Path to Patriots’ Success:

  "To overcome [the pass rush], you’re going to need to string together four or five, six explosive plays..." — Robert Mays ([33:43])

• New England’s Haymakers: Bill for success = 2+ deep completions & several scrambles from May, despite Seattle’s strong discipline vs. mobile QBs ([37:54], [38:27]).
• Personnel Usage: New England’s heavy jumbo (extra OL) and empty sets are discussed as potential schematic edges, but Seattle’s defense is built to counter them ([29:04], [39:07]).

Notable Quotes

• Dave:

  "Seattle’s second wave of guys is better than every other team in the league...no room to catch a breather." ([32:13])

• Robert:

  "Why should I believe Seattle won’t do what other fronts have done to [the Patriots], but better?" ([31:51])

"Can May Hit Downfield Shots?" Debate

• Patriots' best chance is big downfield throws, but the Rams are the only team to consistently do damage to Seattle’s corners, thanks to superior outside WR matchups and Matthew Stafford’s arm talent ([36:21]).
• Derek & Dave debate how/if Drake May can replicate that blueprint ([35:03]-[37:03]).
• Stat: Rams had 10 20+ air yard completions in 2 games vs. SEA; rest of NFL combined: 10 all season ([36:33]).

5. Patriots Defense vs Seahawks Offense

Pressure & Explosive Plays

• Patriots' Defensive Strengths:
  Interior pressure with Milton Williams & Barmore aligns with Seahawks’ O-line weakness.
• Seattle’s Offense is Perimeter-Run-Heavy: Patriots are 31st in defending outside run since Week 10—a major concern ([48:02]).
• Seattle Tricks: Seahawks vary their run game, using outside zone, pin/pull, creative tight end motion, and bootlegs to get Darnold away from pressure ([49:05]).

JSN (Jaxon Smith-Njigba) Mismatch

• Hosts detail how Seattle could flex JSN around the formation to keep him away from New England’s big, physical outside corners ([50:29]).
• Patriots may use aggressive double-teams, copy Rams' blueprint, and look to muddy the middle ([51:38], [51:57]).
• Dave:

  "If you are New England and want to muddy this game up, anytime [JSN] is outside the numbers, you are holding him and daring them to make you call it." ([51:38])

Blitz Packages and Forcing Mistakes

• Since their bye, Patriots have blitzed at the 3rd highest rate. Against zone blitzes, Seahawks O has struggled (28th in success) ([53:07]).
• Sam Darnold is "top 10 in success rate vs. blitz, but also leads the league in interceptions when blitzed" ([54:15]).
• "Patriots need 6 splash plays: 2 turnovers, 4 sacks" to win ([54:42]).

Notable Quotes

• Derek:

  "I'd rather double [JSN] and tip your cap if [others] beat you than not and let JSN do what he's capable of." ([52:37])

• Robert:

  "The worst version of [Darnold] aligns with what New England wants to be on defense." ([53:07])

Kenneth Walker & Personnel Chess

• Patriots will hunt for mismatches against RB Kenneth Walker in pass pro (his weakness) ([55:46]).
• Seahawks’ 12 personnel is a potential problem for New England’s D. If NE matches with nickel, Seattle may run; if with base, Seattle might pass—host discussion on the game-within-the-game ([58:11]).

6. Special Teams (Quickly, but Genuinely)

• Seattle's edge: Jason Myers (SEA) is top 10 in field goal over expectation; Bora Gallos (NE) is below average and a potential liability ([62:27]).
• Both teams strong in return game: Rashid Shahid (SEA punt returns), Marcus Jones (NE, punt return TDs) ([61:55]).
• Could tip 1 or 2 possessions in a field-goal-heavy, tight contest.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "This is the most unlikely Super Bowl in recent memory. ...It's fitting for such a strange year." — Robert Mays ([04:40])
• "If you told everybody...they're not going to find a superstar quarterback...but they'll also be back in the Super Bowl, I think a lot of people would have been like, 'How?'" — Dave Helman ([08:48])
• "He’s going to be in the thick of those [best QB] conversations...Early success can do so much for a guy." — Derek on Drake May ([13:56])
• "Why should I believe Seattle won’t do what other fronts have done to [the Patriots], but better?" — Robert Mays ([31:51])
• "Seattle’s second wave of guys is better than every other team...no room to catch a breather." — Dave ([32:13])
• "I'd rather double [JSN] and tip your cap if [others] beat you than not and let JSN do what he's capable of." — Derek ([52:37])
• "Patriots need 6 splash plays: 2 turnovers, 4 sacks—that is the path.” — Robert Mays ([54:42])
• "If you're the Patriots, this has to be a very, very bad Sam Darnold game. I think that's your best path to victory." – Derek ([65:49])
• Fun moment: Jurassic Park dinosaur handler sighting at Radio Row sets the tone for “peak saturation” ([03:30])
• Running jokes about "weirdest thing seen today" and the superstition of overwhelming one-sided picks ([03:30], [64:05]).

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Timestamps for Major Segments

• [02:10] – Episode Theme & Overview by Robert Mays
• [04:40] – Bird’s Eye View: How Patriots & Seahawks got here, New Coach Eras
• [08:08] – Historical/Coaching Significance, Defensive Head Coaches
• [10:04] – Impact for Future Team-Building Philosophies
• [13:56] – Drake May’s rapid rise & QB Hierarchy
• [14:23] – When Did Patriots' Playoff Belief Start?
• [17:01] – When Did Seahawks' Legitimacy Crystalize?
• [25:25] – Seahawks Defense vs Patriots Offense: Key Matchups, Protection, Explosiveness
• [31:15] – Can the Patriots Survive Pass Rush? Haymaker Theory
• [35:03] – Can May Replicate Rams’ Downfield Success?
• [44:40] – Patriots Defense vs Seahawks Offense: How NE Can Win, Interior Pressure
• [48:02] – Seattle’s Perimeter Run, Patriots' Defensive Weakness
• [50:29] – Scheming Around Patriots' Physical Corners
• [53:07] – Patriots’ Bltiz Patterns & Darnold’s Blitz Performance
• [55:46] – Targeting Kenneth Walker, Personnel Chess
• [58:11] – Seattle’s 12 Personnel vs. Patriots' Nickel/Base Dilemma
• [61:36] – Short Special Teams Discussion (Kickers, Returners)
• [64:05] – Game Predictions

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Hosts' Final Picks & Predictions

• Derrik: Seattle 25-20 (“I like the Seahawks to cover. Patriots can muck it up, but Seattle is just the better team.”) ([65:01])
• Robert: Seattle 24-16 (“Feels like the Seahawks are in control for most of it... hard for me to imagine New England moving the ball consistently.”) ([65:09])
• Dave: Seattle by at least the spread; envisions a possibly ugly, low-scoring game (“Easier to picture a world where Seattle’s defense is dominant but the offense sputters a bit—like 18-12.”) ([64:41])

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Tone & Style

The hosts balance sharp analysis and inside details with plenty of banter and chemistry. They bring deep expertise, reference stats and league trends, and foresee how this game could ripple across the NFL's future. Despite the analytical rigor, the conversation is lively, accessible and fun—grounded in love for “why we all love this sport.”

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Summary prepared for listeners who want the full story and strategic depth, with big moments, insights, and predictions—just skip the commercials!

Transcript

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[Podcast Host 1]

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[Robert Mays]

Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays. Not a whole lot of preamble needed here. It's a Super bowl preview. Me, Derek and Dave hit Patriots Seahawks from every angle that we could. Started with some of the storylines associated with this game. How these teams got here when we knew they'd be capable of playing in this sort of game. What this means for a Mike McDonald, a Sam Darnold, a Drake May, and then just dug in to each side of the ball. How the Patriots can find a path forward on offense against Seattle, where their explosives might need to come from? What matchup advantages does New England have, even if it doesn't seem like there are a lot of them? And then on the other side of the ball, when Seattle has the ball in this game, I think all of us agreed that was the Patriots best path here. Can they ugly this game up? Can they get a couple turnovers, several negative plays? Can their defense, like it has all playoffs for New England, carry them in what is the biggest moment of their season? So really enjoyed this conversation with Derek and Dave. Let's get to it it right now. Welcome back to the Athletic Football show coming to you live from Radio Row in San Francisco. Gentlemen, it's about that time.

[Derek]

We are at peak saturation right now. So it is. I think it's time to preview this game and get. Get it underway.

[Robert Mays]

What is the weirdest thing you saw today?

[Derek]

It happened just now, and that's how I know it's time to talk about the game and get the hell out of here. Because, I mean, you see, there's football players here, there's celebrities here, there's TikTok. But I walked in to get to the set to do the preview show, and there is a Jurassic park dinosaur handler.

[Robert Mays]

Yes.

[Derek]

With like a lifelike velociraptor puppet. I didn't even know there's a Jurassic park movie coming out this year.

[Robert Mays]

There's always a Jurassic Park.

[Dave]

I hate to find this guy. I miss the raptor.

[Derek]

It's a lady.

[Robert Mays]

There's two of them. There was a guy and then there was a lady. The guy was petting the raptor at one point. I thought it was two in character. That's an act with the animatronic raptor.

[Derek]

I thought it was a real. I thought it was like an iguana.

[Robert Mays]

You thought it was a real dinosaur?

[Derek]

I thought it was a real lizard. I thought it was a real lizard. And I walked up and I was like, no, that's a velociraptor. And then I was like, we need to talk about this game. So I don't need to be on Radio Row anymore.

[Robert Mays]

Yeah. Thursday. Radio Row is a. It's a surreal experience. Every single year, you're going to see some of the weirdest shit you've ever seen. In a professional space. And today was no different. Yesterday, we were the ones providing the weird shit because it was a man with the wolf costume.

[Sponsor Voice]

I was the one.

[Dave]

I was.

[Derek]

Somebody else's podcast is like, this guy's dressed. Dressed like chiefsaholic. What the hell's going on?

[Robert Mays]

We're going to dig into this game from every angle we can possibly think of. Start with the bird's eye view of this and just kind of talk about how we got here. We've discussed this on so many different fronts throughout this entire season. It was a strange year. It was just a very strange season in terms of who the contenders were, which we had to wrestle with the entire year, which teams were going to be around at the end. And this is the most unlikely super bowl in recent memory. I think probably since I started doing this. These teams coming into the season were 60 and 80 to 1 to win the super bowl, and one of them will be the team that lifts the Lombardi Trophy at the end of this. The over, over, under for both of these teams was eight and a half. And so the fact that this is the end of what has been a very strange season, Derek, it feels like super bowl. We never could have predicted. Being the final points to what this year has been is fitting especially too.

[Dave]

That both teams came in with those eight and a halfs were probably different. Like, they were there for very different reasons. With the Seahawks, it was like, well, they grind out some wins with their defense, but, man, that. That conference and that division is going to be really tough. Their schedule is going to be brutal. And then with the Patriots, it was like, well, Rabel will lift the floor a little bit. The quarterbacks were excited about him. You know, easy schedule. They should get to, like, eight, nine wins, and we'll see if they can get there.

[Derek]

I remember one of the first shows I did with just you, Derek, because Robert was, I think, out of town or something, but it was like way back in the summer, and we were like, I love the Patriots. I love the Patriots as a team to be better. But over eight and a half wins, like, let's pump the brakes a little bit. Like, we're not. I bet you on that show, we probably said, they're not going to jump straight to the super bowl right away. And. And here they are.

[Robert Mays]

These are both teams that are pretty early on in new eras of the franchise. Right? And you have two teams that. We talked about this yesterday. We saw these teams play in the Super Bowl 11 years ago with Pete Carroll and Bill Belichick. Seahawks only won one super bowl, but the Carroll era in Seattle was a roaring success. I mean, you think about that stretch from 2011 to 2015, they were probably the best team in the league every single year during that stretch. They got a lot of DVOA banners they can hang if they want to. And then obviously we know what the Belichick era was. And so for both of these teams to have moved on from legendary mainstay coaches in the last two years, what they landed on and what the pivots are, they've both gone as well as they possibly could have. Like, could you be a Seahawks or Patriots fan and be more enthusiastic about what the early returns from the Mike McDonald and Mike, Mike Vrabel eras have been?

[Derek]

No, you're in the super bowl and I'm glad you're framing it this way. And this might just be me, but when you've seen these teams play a Super bowl against each other in recent memory, I mean, it's still just 10 years ago, it's easy to sort of gloss over that. And I think neutral fans probably, they want to see new jerseys in the super bowl and just have it be a new look. And particularly on the Patriots side of this, it feels very familiar. And I wouldn't be surprised if some neutral observers said boring just because this feels familiar. And that that couldn't be further from the case. Like if you remove the fact that we've seen these teams play a Super bowl before, what a cool story for both of these teams. And the way the Seahawks weren't satisfied with good and took it to great and the way the Patriots have found a way to retool and live up to the standard that they set for themselves. And it's not doing it justice to just say, ah, we've seen this super bowl before. And so I'm, I'm glad that we're talking about it that way.

[Robert Mays]

Another element of this that's, and it's been written a couple different times. I think Sando said this this week and it's going to depend on how you qualify or classify about Bill Belichick. But Bill Belichick never outwardly was the defensive play caller from the Patriots, even if I think there were years where he probably was a defensive play caller. Right. But this would be if Mike McDonald wins this game, the first primary defensive play caller in the ever to win a Super bowl for his team as the head coach. And Mike Grable is a defensive minded head coach. And so either way, no matter how this game goes, this will be the first time a non Bill Belichick defensive head coach has won the Super bowl since 2013. Wow.

[Dave]

That's insane that it's the same franchise too. And I think what's funny about like the entire Seahawks rebuild is if you told me, like as they were moving on from the Pete Carroll era, let's say, like before we knew they were going to hire Mike McDonald, if you told everybody, like, yeah, they're going to stick to defense and over the next two years, they're not going to find a superstar quarterback. Obviously they found like an answer with Sam Darnold, but they're not going to find a superstar. But they'll also be back in the Super Bowl. I think a lot of what people would have been like, how do you stay on kind of the same track and then end up in, in the Super Bowl? It doesn't really make any sense.

[Derek]

I mean, think about the paths that so many teams have been on in this era of football where it's almost like, if you don't have Patrick Mahomes or if you don't win that quarterback lottery, what's even the point? Sean McVay traded away a guy that he got to a Super bowl with. Kyle Shanahan is cycling through good but not great quarterbacks. We talk so much about, yeah, like he's, he's good, but can you win the super bowl with him? And I mean, we obviously saw it with Philly last year and. But even still, that's a guy that they drafted and developed. Like, this is very interesting and unique for the Seahawks to bring in Sam Darnold middle of the road contract. And this is supposed to be the guy that you're trying to get away from. And the Seahawks are like, no, we will take that and we think we can get somewhere with you. And you're one win away from a championship.

[Robert Mays]

And I think from a team building perspective, you have two different things in mind there. One, the idea of a defensive minded head coach and a defensive first head coach and the viability of that all the way till the end. Because we've had guys that were defensive head coaches that have been successful, but we haven't had one that I think has kind of been a catalyst to for what other franchises are seeking out in a very long time. And I think that has the potential to be the case with Mike McDonald. Like, the McVay thing really starts after they go to the super bowl and after you have a bunch of owners watching Sean McVay in the Super Bowl. If the Seahawks Win. Jesse Minter is not going to be the last guy cut from the same cloth as Mike McDonald who's going to get one of these head coaching jobs. And so I think that has a chance to kind of reshape some of the larger scale decision making in the NFL. And then you mentioned it. What happens with Darnold, like, if that. That path becomes viable where you can find this second chance guy and he can be a piece of everything else that you're building, you can get it over the finish line with somebody like that. It's only going to cause more teams and more franchises to seek out that sort of path if they feel like they have everything else in place.

[Derek]

And I think that's. That's really exciting because I've always thought it was derivative and boring and uninspired to just reduce a quarterback to that. Like, well, you can't win the super bowl with him. Like, he falls short in big games. And there's, like, so much more to it than that. And even if they don't win this game, like, I mean, the Seahawks are playing in it. They are evidence that this build can be wildly, wildly successful.

[Robert Mays]

And the conversations around the quarterbacks, we talked about this a little bit yesterday, but. But there are still plenty of people out there who are going to. They need to see it with Sam Darnold before they believe it. Right.

[Dave]

Which is crazy because he's coming off of probably the best game that he's ever played.

[Robert Mays]

But you say this all the time. Do it again.

[Dave]

Yeah, do it again.

[Robert Mays]

I believe he can. And I think that this idea of him being a liability in some of these moments, I think he's overstated. And I absolutely think he can do it again. But if he does, then the entire discussion around Sam Darnold changes the guy where I don't think he needs to win the super bowl for that discussion to already be changing. We talked about this before we started recording. You're interested in just what this entire run means for Drake May and kind of the equity that he is able to build up because of something like this.

[Derek]

I think I called it plot armor.

[Robert Mays]

Yes.

[Derek]

Drake May is going to have it. I mean, when you what, he's 23 years old. We're recording this before NFL Honors. So we right now don't know who's going to win NFL mvp. He's at least got a chance to win it. He's one of the two guys that are up for the award. So you combine a season that he's had with reaching the super bowl. And I think we compared him to the Joe burrow run in 2021. Nobody remembers how much help Joe Burrow had getting to the fourth quarter of that Super Bowl. Nobody remembers the Raiders game or the Titans game.

[Dave]

The Titans game was a miracle. It got away with that.

[Derek]

And Drake May not to take credit away from him. If I like, I'm buying all the Drake May stock I can. I think his arrow is firmly pointed up. But you contend for MVP and reach a Super bowl in year two, it's going to lift you into a different stratosphere. And I think most people have Joe Burrow as like, number 4 or 3B, depending on who you talk to. And I very much think Drake May is about to join that conversation in a big way where I think a lot of people are going to say, okay, it's, it's these four and Drake May. And then we start the conversation ironically, oh, my God, we did that. We did the sixth best quarterback podcast, like, at the start of this season. And I don't think we even mentioned Drake May because how could we, how.

[Robert Mays]

Could you, how could we have known you couldn't do that?

[Dave]

I loved him, but it was like, we, it was.

[Robert Mays]

If you had said that, we would.

[Derek]

Have been like, Derek, yeah.

[Dave]

It would have been like, come on. Like, I. It's like it was one of those things where he could get there. But you can't make that proclamation based just off his rookie season and now.

[Derek]

Even again, independent of the result of this game, he's going to be in the thick of those conversations when we fire up all of our favorite content ideas in the off season. And that's A, it's really fun, and B, it's amazing what early success can do for a guy. And we already think highly of him and now that he's just going to be in, I don't think you can say unassailable, but a very advantageous space when you're talking about the hierarchy of NFL quarterbacks.

[Robert Mays]

When do you think that you knew the Patriots could be playing in this game? At what point in the season where you're like, okay, they are this sort of team game?

[Dave]

I think we've talked about this a lot. I think for a long part of the season, the defense was like, fake. The defense was just not very good. And I, I truly think when they came out of their bye week, and I think it was week 15, their first game out of the bye week, and they played the Bills, some of the stuff that they were throwing on defense, I was like, all right, the offense has its flaws, but you have a potential MVP quarterback. They have enough playmakers that it's like they could reasonably score on most teams and make this run. And then the defense was starting to show life. And it was always a talented defense. Right? That's why it was kind of confusing that they weren't that good early on. Like, the interior is good and like the linebacker play was improved and the corners are really good. It just kind of took them. It took them three months to like get into this new vision post by. And I think for them to go and have a game like that against Joe Brady, against Josh Allen and really throw a lot of this creative stuff and kind of catch them on their heels, I was like, if they can do that five, six more times than maybe they have it. And they obviously did. They did that through the rest of the regular season. They did it for. They did it even better for the playoffs. They killed every team that they played. So I really, to me, it was like, especially the first half of that Bills game, I was like, all right, they can do something.

[Derek]

I'm about to sound like a hater, but that second Bills game coincided with the Chiefs loss to the Chargers. And the Chiefs were. Patrick Mahomes got hurt and the Chiefs were eliminated from the playoffs. And I think somewhere around there I had to have a conversation with myself where I was like, the cavalry's not.

[Robert Mays]

Coming if they're Ravens too, right? And they're in multiple teams. Or it's just like, all right, this is not going to happen.

[Derek]

They've already shown they can beat and play with the Bills. The Chiefs are not. That surge is not happening. The Ravens surge is not happening. And right around then, Denver and New England both, you look at it and you're like, I've been, I've been writing these teams off because of who I thought was going to be rounding into form and that's not happening. And so right around mid December, I was like, even with their flaws, these teams are capable of doing it in large part because of who's not going to be in their way.

[Robert Mays]

I think the pointing out the defense is a good thing to do because the offense was the most efficient drop back offense in the NFL for a good majority of the season. Like that was. That happened immediately. The defense was much more of a question. And we talked a lot about Zach Cora on the show we did earlier this week about the people who have changed the discussions around them over the course of this year and the defense showing the gear that it had down the stretch, after the bye into the playoffs, they needed that type of defense. Like, if that. If the defense wasn't playing at that level, they wouldn't be here right now because of how much the offense has struggled.

[Dave]

It's the Joe Burrow Bengals run against that Bengals defense wasn't good early in the year and they kind of just rounded into form at the right time at the end.

[Robert Mays]

When did you know about the Seahawks?

[Derek]

Oh, man, when did I know they could get to the Super Bowl? Probably that Rams rally, like the second Rams game, really? Which, like, I know that's late, I know that's late, but, like, think about how much swung. I knew they were a good team. I knew they were a good team, but think about how much that game swung things.

[Robert Mays]

I guess that's true because that was.

[Dave]

Like, you need a lot of evidence to know that, like Sam Darnold and the offense really can do this. And the offense spent 18 weeks proving it in different ways.

[Derek]

I think this is a great example of the different ways we look at this. And like I said, the Seahawks look like a monster. This is going to sound dumb. The Max Brosmer game where the defense just ate him alive and they scored 26 points without the offense doing anything. You just kind of have a moment where you're like, this defense is really special and this defense could carry them far no matter what Sam Darnold is doing. I say the Rams game because I think we talked about it in the buildup to the conference title game. Let's say they don't get those two point conversions and Rashid Shahid doesn't have that punt return. We're talking about a world where you're playing for the five seed and you're potentially going to Carolina instead of having it all go through Seattle and only having to play two games. It's very easy to imagine a world where the Rams have home field advantage. So when that game flipped the way it did, I knew the Seahawks were good. But when that happened, I was like, oh, shit. Like, they could have home field advantage and be two wins away from the Super Bowl.

[Dave]

It's like two different moments, right? Like that Rams game is like the flip of like, oh, they're the favorites in the.

[Robert Mays]

Yes.

[Dave]

Like they should. They should be the best team in the.

[Derek]

They went from like, good team that's gonna have to go on a run to like, it's all gonna run through Seattle, which up until that game, I thought that would be the Rams. Halfway through that game, I thought it would be The Rams, because like I.

[Dave]

Think the first moment is to me when they, I know the Texans offense has their problems. When they made C.J. stroud in that offense look like they did not belong on the field, I was like, oh, that. That's different.

[Derek]

What is it for you?

[Robert Mays]

Week two.

[Derek]

Oh yeah. You said Pittsburgh when they played Pittsburgh.

[Robert Mays]

And when the offense looked the way that it did and you felt like this, the offense has something to it that like the, what their plan was, what they wanted to be, they did it. Like this idea of JSN is going to have to carry us. We need Sam to play well and the structure of the offense is going to lift the floor of the offensive line. As soon as I saw that over the first like two to three weeks, I was like, done. Like it's. You need to sustain it. But seeing the offensive vision come to life and then knowing that the defense would be what it is. So I think early on I was a big believer in like what they were trying to be. And then we've talked about this. It's a weird game because they only win the game by three. The Thursday night game they played against the Cardinals where the offense and the plan on offense and the game from Kubiak was so good. And now you get to a place where the defense is the defense. I believe in the defense before the season even started. And then they were as good or better as we even could have hoped to watch them have a schematic and play calling advantage on offense while the talent, the level of talent clearly was enough. Like watching Sam, the extra explosiveness he provided them, plus jsn, that like explosive element was clear early on. But to watch Kubiak in that game against Arizona and be like, okay, they have an offensive play caller who's going to consistently be one step ahead of the teams they play against, combined with the defense, they're terrified. And it happened that early.

[Derek]

I think it's a really good point and it's something, I mean it's so easy to glide loss over September and October at this point in the year. The Seahawks changed my mind about who they were probably really, Even though it was a loss. The Tampa Bay game where just you see the offense just zipping down the field and Darnold making some of those throws. And then the very next week they went to Jacksonville and just mauled.

[Robert Mays]

It was the two polls of who the Seahawks could be.

[Derek]

And so I think that two game stretch was where I was like, oh, this is a really, really good team. I wasn't I wasn't giving them enough credit. I still stand by what I said, where my perception of what they were capable of winning this year flipped. When they won that Rams game where I was like, okay, this is, this is more than an 11 or 12 win team that's going to open the playoffs on the road. Like, this is maybe the super bowl favorite.

[Robert Mays]

All right, before we move on, let's take a quick break.

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[Robert Mays]

All right, let's dig into the individual sides of the ball here. Let's start with the Seahawks defense against the Patriots offense in this game. Derek, number one thing for you that you are looking for when New England has the ball in this game is.

[Dave]

What I'm guessing based on game script we're going to get like 40 Drake may drop backs because I just do not really trust New England's ability to run the ball a whole lot in this game and so I think it's going to come down to a lot of third down. A lot of how are the Seahawks manipulating pass rush lanes and stuff. And the more I look at it, the more it's hard for me to understand how New England is going to pick up some of this stuff. Like I think against most teams they actually pick some stuff up well and actually do a good job of manipulating some of their, their, their pass protection rules. Like no, we've talked about it with some of these Shanahan teams is they're always just like sliding three to the one Tech having man on the other side and that's kind of it. That's all they do in protection. New England will do some other stuff like they'll kind of just like pinch down to the one Tech and leave their left tackle just like all on an island, which is cool. If you think Will Campbell can handle that. I don't know if he can do that against demarcus Lawrence and UCHENA nwosu and so I think you get a little bit pinched there. And then I actually do think the way that Mike, Mike McDonald brings a lot of his pressures manipulating the bat, kind of wasting them, certain stuff like that getting out good droppers. I know Ramandre Stevenson is a great pass protector. I feel like they're going to be on the like Seattle is going to be on the front foot of kind of wasting him, not letting him get out because he is a good pass catcher too. You don't want to let him get out of the backfield. And I just feel like Mike McDonald is going to do a very good job of keeping him in kind of wasting him. And now Drake Meg just kind of has to play one on one ball with all these receivers where the Seahawks DBs are just a lot better than the guys that they're playing against for the most part.

[Derek]

I'm really interested to see a couple things you said that I love and I want to hit on. I'm really interested to see how the Patriots balance Travion Henderson being a playmaker with needing Ramondre Stevenson to be on the field in this game.

[Robert Mays]

I think they've shown you that and told you that over the course of the playoffs.

[Dave]

Yes.

[Derek]

Which leads me to think like Ramandre Stevenson is going to have a very busy night on Sunday. And what he's been, he's been there third down back 90% of the time in yardage situations that are beyond like 2 yards. Like if it's anything that you can't pick up with a diver, a sneak or something like that right up the middle, it's from Andre Stevenson, which I think is going to help Drake may as a passer but potentially handicaps the explosive ability of an offense that that already is kind of lacking in that area.

[Robert Mays]

It's just hard for me to imagine a world where in normal personnel the Patriots run the ball consistently in this game. Like the Patriots aren't a very good running team, period. They're about to play against the best run defense in the NFL this year. The one area where I'm curious how this will play out is influenced by some of the news that we got this week. Nick Amanwari is hurt, right? And so he has a sprained ankle. Mike McDonald came out and said that today. It sounds like he is going to Play. Is he 100%? How close to 100% is he? Does he play all the snaps? And why I think this is specifically important we saw the Rams. They were able to line up in 13 personnel and even if they weren't explosive on the ground because you're going to get nickel and smaller bodies from Seattle no matter what. If you're going to put three tight ends on the field, can you grind them down a little bit and chip away 4, 5, 6 yards at a time on the ground? New England is not going to do 13 personnel stuff, but they have used a lot more jumbo in the back half of the season than they did early in the year. Per Next Gen, 18.4% of the Patriots plays since Week 11 have been with an extra offensive lineman on the field. They did it almost 33% of the time in the AFC Championship Game. I assume that was somewhat driven by weather, game script, those sorts of considerations.

[Derek]

It is a hard game to draw.

[Robert Mays]

Conclusions, but we saw it 19 times total over the previous two games and so I do think that we're going to see them try to do that and see what Seattle matches with. If Seattle matches with nickel when they're using jumbo and Emari isn't 100%. If you get Devon Witherspoon in the slot in some of those looks, is New England able to kind of grind the game down running the ball out of those big personnel groupings? If Seattle was going to stay small, that's a small ball thing that I don't think will dictate the game, but I think the Rams were able to show you if you can run the ball a little bit, it just gives you a lot more breathing room elsewhere.

[Dave]

How, how likely do you think it is that they can execute on I.

[Robert Mays]

Don'T think they can. I Don't. I just don't believe in their ability to do that. That's what Seattle wants you to do.

[Dave]

Exactly.

[Robert Mays]

They want you to get into something where the best thing you can do out of jumbo looks in the NFL right now is throw out of them against base D3. The Seahawks are not going to allow you to do that. They're daring you to run the ball out of those heavy personnel groupings. They're going to let you run the ball for 2.8 yards of carry and they're going to put you behind the eight ball the entire game. So I think leaning on that is playing into their hands. But I still feel like you have to try to see what's available to you there, at least early in the game.

[Dave]

That being like a first quarter, like 20 minutes, first 20 minutes of the game, like poking and prodding to see what you can get, I do think actually makes sense. I just, just. I'm kind of with you. Like, when I look at not just the offensive line personnel, but like one, they are a little bit smaller than the Rams. Like, the Rams have a big offensive line.

[Robert Mays]

Huge.

[Dave]

Yeah. Those guys are massive. They are massive. They are built to just get double teams, and that's not necessarily how New England has built it. And to me, a lot of New England's best stuff is movement stuff. It's getting Jack Westover on the field and they're getting him out on the perimeter or they're moving some of their guards and stuff like that. And that's just. I just feel like Seattle keys that stuff. Stuff so well. That. That's going to be really difficult to do. And then even their tight ends, the. The Rams tight ends are massive. Like, those guys are huge and long and like, I just don't know if New England has a lot of that, which to your point, like, they bring on Jumbo and it kind of fixes.

[Commercial Announcer 2]

That a little bit.

[Dave]

But this to me feels like something they maybe can poke and prod at. But kind of to your point, like, the duo get six offensive linemen on the field, that's like a slow try to matriculate down the field. They need haymakers in this game. Like, I just. That's the only way to play.

[Derek]

The other thing I wanted to bring up off of what you mentioned, Derek, we talked about this throughout the playoffs. Eight and a half of the 11 and a half sacks that Will Campbell has allowed this year have come to pass rushers with 33 and a half inch arms or longer.

[Dave]

That checks out.

[Derek]

That's all of Seattle's pass rushers except.

[Robert Mays]

Maffe, he's the only one except boy.

[Derek]

Maffe, who's 32 and 3/4 inch. So I mean, DeMarcus Lawrence, Derek Hall, Leonard Williams, Uchena Nuwosu, these guys clock in like they could touch the tunnel on both sides if they want to. And that sounds like trouble.

[Robert Mays]

So this is where I land on this. Okay? I 100% agree with that. We have seen other fronts in the playoffs kick the shit out of the Patriots offensive line and ruin these games. And the Patriots have had to win. Very, very ugly. What reason should I have to believe that Seattle, who might have the best front amongst all of those teams, is not going to do the exact same thing to them?

[Dave]

That's exactly where I'm at. Because even I think that what makes this even more likely is some of the other teams that were kind of giving them a lot of trouble. Teams like the Chargers, teams like the Texans, all those guys, like their first wave of guys are really good. And that is obviously true of Seattle. Seattle's second wave of guys is better than every other team in the league. Like there's not going to be any room to like kind of catch a breather. And so this to me does feel like a game where they're going to get hammered a lot. And like, like I think even more so than like the Texans. Right? The Texans kind of just are like we're going to rush four and that's going to kind of be it. Seattle does so much manipulating. You know, you're going to get a couple of one on ones here that maybe you wouldn't in games like that. That on top of how talented all these guys are, I just, this feels like a game where they're going to get hammered pretty much across the board. Left tackle, the right tackle.

[Derek]

Can I present? This is one thing I think about when I, when I'm looking at the Patriots offense. Can I talk you into Drake May hitting shots downfield against these outside corners?

[Robert Mays]

Okay, so this one. One more note about the pass protection that I wanted to point out because I think the stat is really telling and I think it speaks to what the Patriots have been in the playoffs versus the regular season per next gen. May's been sacked 15 times this postseason. That is the most of any player to reach a Super bowl since 1970. In the playoffs, he's taken a sack on 48 point of his pressure drop backs. That is double his rate from the regular season. And again, I just don't understand why that won't happen against Seattle when it's happening as all these other fronts. Their best path if they're going to overcome this stuff, to me, like Derek said, is haymakers.

[Derek]

Yes.

[Robert Mays]

You're going to need to string together four or five, six explosive plays in this game. And to their credit, even when they've relatively struggled in the play playoffs, they have still been able to hit a lot of these explosives and that includes the Texans game. And so that version of the game I do think is possible given what we've watched over the last month. But against Seattle, how available do you think some of those explosives down the field actually are?

[Derek]

I mean they're going to be few and far between, but am I crazy if I kind of think they can hit them like two or three times?

[Dave]

Can I sell you on how they're going to hit them?

[Derek]

You're trying to sell me or I need to sell you?

[Dave]

I think I can like sell you a little bit. I don't know how much I buy it, but I do see the path.

[Derek]

Please.

[Dave]

Like I so on third down specifically I went and I wanted to go back and watch what the Patriots do on third down and when they're in third and pass it is all three by one. Everything is three by one. And then Drake May will put the back wherever he needs them. They're gonna do whatever and in a lot of cases sometimes they'll use the isolated player like tight to the formation and it's a tight end so they can get a little bit of man zone tell. And I do think McDaniels does a good job of that with with with May. But I think also McDonald disguises so much. That's going to be tricky. Where I think they can get them maybe is whoever that isolated player is, especially if he's to the field and he's got a lot to work with. You put Khaan booty out there if you can get him on on Josh Job for four or five snaps a.

[Robert Mays]

Game and you job is usually the boundary corner though.

[Dave]

Yeah, that's a good point. But they'll dig into the boundary too. It doesn't really matter.

[Robert Mays]

They do feel boundary so but Job is typically the boundary corner so that's where you're going to need to have those one on ones for the most.

[Derek]

Am I crazy? And again like these are. These are few and far between opportunities obviously, especially when you're dealing with that pass rush. I think you can get Jobe and Reek Woolen and Evan Witherspoon. So here, okay, here's here's my hot take. The guy that's done it, the Rams have done it. Obviously. Who else is on the podium for mvp? I mean if this guy is actually.

[Robert Mays]

If this guy is, I will hear that argument. I will hear that argument like oh.

[Derek]

Oh, they can get hit by an MVP caliber quarterback. Well, guess who they're playing on Sunday.

[Dave]

This is going to come as a surprise. I will not hear that. Actually, I think Matthew Stafford is such a different thrower.

[Robert Mays]

I so I think and you and I have talked about this and I think that you have articulated in a very clear and really concise way. The Rams are uniquely positioned in my mind to move the ball against Seattle's defense thing for two different reasons. One, their outside receivers are matchup advantages consistently against any outside corner duo you're probably going to play against, and that includes Seattle. Keisha Booty has been really nice this year for what he is. He is not Puka and Devontae Adams.

[Derek]

I will recognize that flaw in my plan. When you look at the numbers that the Rams have put up or what the rather the Seattle cornerbacks have given up, it's Puka and Devonte doing the vast majority of this damage.

[Robert Mays]

So here's the number on that that I wanted to come to this with. In the last two games that the Seahawks played against the rams in week 16 in the playoffs, they gave up 10 passes of 20 plus air yards. In those two games from week two through the end of the season against every other team, the Seahawks gave up 10 passes of 20 plus air yards. Pretty good. So why do why should I believe that this Patriots are going to have five explosives in this game?

[Dave]

And because here's the thing, to me, like Drake May is a really talented thrower. Drake May is a talented thrower because one, his shot selection is awesome. Like Stafford shot selection is good too. But he's also like intentionally being more aggressive than he should at times because that's he can get away with it. But Drake May shot selection is really good and I also think his touch and ability to like put over routes just over a guy is really nice or a corner route, whatever it is. But Stafford's ability to just put it past your ear hole or he looks at the COVID two hole shot and he's like I can do that and Drake May can do that sometimes. You could sell me on Drake May hitting two or three of those in this game. But it took eight for Matthew Stafford to make that last game close. And I just think and Drake May obviously balances that out a little bit. He's got so much more athleticism than Stafford does and I do think he'll probably make four or five plays a game in that sense.

[Robert Mays]

That's going to need to happen. Right. And so if we're trying to figure.

[Derek]

Out what if, what if the Lions share those explosives are Drake May that.

[Robert Mays]

If I'm building, building the path for the Patriots offense to score enough points in this game, I still think you do need one or two downfield completions of some kind, right? You need them to happen and they're going to take those opportunities. And so if Drake May throws, let's say Drake May has six completions of 20 plus air yards in this game, I think two of those need to be complete for the Patriots to win and I think two more of those explosives, they're going to have five or six needs to come with him as a scrambler. And unfortunately for New England, like Seattle has been very good against scrambles this year. They do not give up a lot of chunks on the ground against running.

[Dave]

Quarterbacks because they crush the pocket like there's no air to get out anywhere because all those guys are long, they're 280 pounds and they just kind of suffocate you.

[Robert Mays]

One other area where I'm just trying to figure out like, all right, what is a spot where maybe Seattle's a little bit weaker that the Patriots can find some advantage. The patriots this year nine or 7.9 yards per play out of empty on offense, which is a very good number. Seattle's defense allowed the fourth most yards per play and the ninth highest explosive play rate against empty sets this year. And so if you can undress them a little bit, that is at least a narrow path for opposing offenses. And the Patriots will do it and have had success doing it this year.

[Derek]

How willing are you to do it? Knowing the pass protection issues presented by.

[Robert Mays]

This matchup, it's a damned if you do, damned if you don't sort of thing. Right. Couple other stats that I wanted to throw out with new with the Seahawks defense specifically that I just was blown away by looking through some of it. So per next gen of 91 defenses to blitz on fewer than 25% of their pass rushes since 2018. The Seahawks 59 unblocked pressures were the second most by any team in that stretch. The only team with more the 2023 Ravens.

[Derek]

Shocking.

[Dave]

He's pretty good at it.

[Robert Mays]

He is very, very, very good at that. One specific thing, like when you're trying to figure out like what are the examples numbers that point to how good of a play caller Specifically Mike McDonald is? It is the efficiency one blitzing. They have been so devastating whenever they've decided to do it and I think it's because he has such a great situational and schematic feel for what he needs to do and when he needs to do it.

[Derek]

It's such an interesting the coaching matchup here is very fun between Vrabel's feel for situational stuff and the edge that he gives his team there and then McDonald is just an elite play caller.

[Robert Mays]

The last one that I do think is worth mentioning, New England did a really good job this year of manipulating opposing defenses with heavier personnel. You're getting a lot of base defense on the field and they saw a lot of single high despite the fact that their run game wasn't that great. The only team that saw a lower percentage of too high pre snap looks than the Patriots was the Ravens and so this is just not something they've really had to deal with as much as other offenses in the league. A lot of that explosiveness, a lot of that pass game efficiency was coming against looks that are a little bit more ripe for offenses to take advantage. We know that Seattle is not going to give you that. I mean they had the third highest split safety pre snap look of any team in the net next gen era. This year it was at like 78% and again New England was at 42% for the year and the Patriots have been fine against those looks when they've played against them, but they just have not seen as many of them over the course of the season as like an average NFL offense would. So that's just like one more thing I would keep an eye on.

[Dave]

And the one they saw of this caliber is I'm sure the Chargers are kind of up there and like they're they did not have a very good game against that Chargers team.

[Robert Mays]

Before we get to the other side of the all, let's take one more quick break.

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[Robert Mays]

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[Robert Mays]

All right, let's get to the other side of the ball. The Patriots defense against the Seahawks offense is a four and a half point line, but I think all of us are of the opinion that Seattle has a pretty decided advantage overall as we move into this game. If I'm trying to build a New England path to winning the super bowl, it starts on this side of the ball. Like, I think that the Patriots defense and what it has been over the last month and what it has been, like you said post buy, they have to make the biggest plays in this game and they have to muddy up the game and make it ugly for the Patriots to win. Do you agree with that?

[Dave]

I think they absolutely have to. And I think the thing that everybody's going to say about how they do it is like this front has to play out of their mind and they might like we even actually, what's funny is before the New England defense was good, I remember I brought this up in like week five or six or whatever it was. There was a point in the season where Milton Williams and Christian Barmore were like the only defensive tackles with 30 plus pressures. Like, and they've been doing that the entire season. And so. And it's not just the pressures. Like, I do think getting interior pressure on Sam Darnold, giving him that flash of color, you get one or two balls that knocks off of a guy's hand and maybe you can get an interception that way. I think that is going to do it. But I also think you have to get into the backfield in the run game like that. That's going to be the big thing. You do not want to allow for how good Clint Kubiak has been. You don't want to allow him to get into second and five, second and fours where he can consistently do that. And Seattle's run game has been a lot better and a lot more varied over the last like six, seven weeks. Like, they're really digging into a lot of stuff, which I think has been interesting and so I think if those guys can wreck shop like that is really their truest path to making this game tough.

[Robert Mays]

Think the path for New England here is getting the Seahawks into third and seven and plus consistently. Yep and I think that has to.

[Dave]

Happen and that I actually do think they can and will do. Like I I I don't think this Seattle interior is very good. Like I Anthony Bradford is kind of gettable. The center has been up and down all year and like Graeme Table has had a good rookie season since he got banged up in week 11. I think he's a lot more gettable and just does not push guys around in the run game the way that he was earlier.

[Robert Mays]

We saw that second Rams game where Kobe Turner got him several different times and the Rams interior and the Rams front in general was a really good group. Patriots interior is pretty good too. Like that's what they do well I'll.

[Derek]

Go as far as to say I was looking through this and I don't know if it's as decided as Seahawks defense, Patriots offense I think this is a fairly favorable matchup for the New England defense with what they can generate up front what their interior can do to the to the Seahawks offensive line. By the way, a dream for defensive tackle enjoyers across this game like the combination. I think Leonard Williams and Byron Murphy are second among all DT duos in the league in pressures this year. Williams and Barmore are fourth which is like two of two of the best interior defensive lines in the league I think. What are we, what have we talked about all year? JSN exceeding expectations despite being the focal point of the Seahawks passing game. And I'm not willing to say that the Patriots can shut him down because so few teams have been able to limit him. I like these Patriots big physical cornerback, not Marcus Jones, but the two outside guys in this game. I think it gives you a chance of at least being able to limit that and limiting the explosive element of the Seahawks offense to the point where you can really make it difficult. On Sam Darnold.

[Robert Mays]

I want to talk about that in a second. Putting a final point on the run game stuff. I don't disagree with that. The one thing I will say the Seahawks run game, especially as we've gotten deeper into the season, it's all perimeter stuff now that Walker is the primary back. So they've run the ball outside the tackles on 65% of their runs in the postseason. The Patriots this year per next gen stats 31st in run in run defense Success rate on outside runs since week 10 and when you look at it, think about Chase son and just like, how he's built that you can get the ball on the perimeter against them. And the team that I think did a really good job of it. And if I'm trying to find some sort of blueprint for how we can do this consistently, the Ravens did a phenomenal job against them in that game. Derek Henry didn't run the ball enough in that game.

[Dave]

Right.

[Robert Mays]

But when they were doing it, some of the pinpole stuff that they were doing, some of the nub stuff they were doing, they were consistently getting the ball on the edge and getting gashes because of that. And so that one area of the Patriots run defense, it does align with a strength of how Seattle actually wants to run the ball.

[Sponsor Voice 2]

Ball.

[Dave]

And that's a good point, too, because they've. The Seattle run game has actually been a lot more varied than you would think of. Just like a Kubiak zone run system for, like, the last six, eight weeks. But a lot of their best stuff has been a lot of the zone stuff, like getting some of those moving double teams, really using Barner across the formation, stuff like that in a game like this, that probably is great. I mean, there was a play in the Rams game where they got Barner on a moving double team against, I think it was Laurel Murchison. Barner puts him in the ground and that play pops for like 15 of JSN and like, puts a better block on the perimeter. And so I do think they can get some of that stuff. And why, like, if they can get that going, I do think that is their best path, because I think you want to be able to get Sam Darnold on the move and booting as much in this game because that's going to get him away from some of the potential interior pressure that he's going to face. And I actually thought specifically in that Rams game, they had such a good game plan for what they wanted to do with their boots. Like, there were three or four instances where they were booting into the boundary and right before the snap, shifting AJ Barner into the boundary there and just using him as like, a chip force that guy inside so that Sam Darnold can get out. And then he's just there as your flat guy. It was just the little details of how they were piecing it together. And so I think if they can do that consistently, maybe they'll have a chance. But I just feel like even if they get that going, if they can get five or six plays, almost like the offense where you just need five or six haymakers. I think you just fight for those drives where you can get them into a second and 12. Now you're on the front foot. Now you're going to throw all the blitzes that you've been throwing for two months.

[Robert Mays]

I want to talk about the JSN part of this because I'm curious what the plan is from Seattle and how much they want to avoid those corners. Like and so we get to a place where maybe we see some one by three nub stuff where JSN's the number two. Do we see some 11 personnel stuff where he's lined up inside in order to get away from those guys. I, I wonder just what the layers of creativity are to his usage specifically in this game given the makeup of this Patriots defense compared to the other defenses they've played against in the. Really in the back half of the season but also in the playoffs.

[Sponsor Voice 2]

Yeah.

[Dave]

Or do you put him in the backfield like eight times?

[Robert Mays]

That's my other thing is how often do we see him in the back? What is the wrinkle off of that? Yeah, so we've seen him run choice routes against linebackers from there. We've seen him run that, that sale route and for the touchdown in the Rams game. I expect to see him in the backfield at some point in this game. What is the next, the next layer and the next wrinkle based on the other things that we've already seen them do? I don't know the answer but I think that they will try out. They will.

[Derek]

I'm trying to think of the answer.

[Dave]

Might get him on a railroad. You know, I mean something like that.

[Robert Mays]

I, I think we will see him used in a bunch of different ways again to potentially avoid what New England's corners can.

[Dave]

And I think you have to look, listen. JSN is obviously one of the best receivers in the NFL and he's clearly proven himself as an outside guy. I do think if you are New England and you want to muddy this game up anytime he's outside the numbers, you are holding him and daring them to make you call him. Like you are just daring them to make you call.

[Robert Mays]

Do we see like a aggressive kind of bespoke game plan where you see him double in man coverage a decent amount? Other people have mentioned that and it's like, like I can understand that.

[Dave]

I would be surprised.

[Robert Mays]

As a one off thing, you're an underdog. He is so demonstrably the focal point of that passing game. Do you just say you know what it we are not going to let him beat us. Somebody else is going to beat us. And New England we know plenty that the one double stuff they've done in the past is different coaching staff. But like VRA comes from a world where he has watched his defensive staff do on those teams specific things in games like that. Do we have something like that in the quiver? If you're the New England coaching staff.

[Derek]

I think I'd rather, I would rather do that and tip your cap if Cooper cup or name your other option makes you pay for it than not and let JSN do what he's capable of doing.

[Robert Mays]

This idea of if they can get them in third and seven if the Patriots can get the Seahawks offense in third and seven off often enough, that's the path to them winning the game. And I think part of that is just what we've seen from them as a blitzing team really since the buy so per next gen the Patriots have blitzed on 40% of drop backs since their week 14 buy. Before that it was 24% of snaps. And so the new the Seattle offense specifically against those third and clear pass situation blitzes this year it's been two different worlds against man blitzes this year on third down Seahawks led the NFL in success rate and if you include the playoffs it's over 60%. So if you've played man when you've blitzed them they've had quick answers. He's known where to go with the ball and they've been devastated. If you play zone on those third down blitzes the Seahawks were 28th in success rate against zone blitzes on third down this year and the Patriots if you look at the number numbers 54% zone on those blitzes since that week 14 buy and anecdotally we've seen this prop up multiple different times this year when you can kind of funky stuff up on the back end and there's somebody sitting there he didn't expect to be there. Sam will give you one or two against those looks and so I do think that the worst version of him kind of aligns with what New England wants to be on their side of the ball.

[Derek]

It's very funny building off of what you just said. He's across all blitzes, everything he's seven. He's top 10 in the league in success rate when he's blitzed. He also leads the league in interceptions when he's blitzed. So I'm guessing you'll give you know he he will get you. But if you can get him twice, those plays will likely outweigh the losses. And again, that's how I would be approaching this if I were the.

[Robert Mays]

They need to me they need six splash plays defensively, two turnovers and four sacks. That. That is the path.

[Dave]

The 60% success rate doesn't scare me. That's like listen, they're. They. They might get that anyway. We need to. We'll live with them getting 60, 65% of their plays in those instances. If we can get a hand on three passes and we tip one of those up and we intercept them or. And I think what's so inspired about a lot of their zone blitzes is like some of these teams will do a lot of zone blitzes and it's the same 5 like 3D 300 BS that it's like really easy to read out. Sometimes the Patriots will put like seven guys on the line of scrimmage and they're playing drop eight like it. They just. It is so all over the board. And I think Sam's a sharp guy but like there are still instances where he's going to throw that thing no matter what and he's going to trust it. And that's how you get. The Rams get him multiple times. Obviously it's like they do a lot of that similar stuff. There's. Other than the outside corners, there's a. Actually a lot of overlap I think between the Rams defense and what and what the Patriots like to do. And so I don't know given how much trouble they've given him at times, I know he's coming off a really good game against the Rams that on top of how good these corners are, there is a world to me where like they can slow him down pretty bad.

[Robert Mays]

The other element of the Patriots blitz looks against Seattle that is worth thinking about in this game, the Kenneth Walker part of this. He's been a star with the ball in his hands in the playoffs. There is a reason that he does not play that much. The passing snaps that Kenneth Walker played this season per next gen stats 226 of them. He blocked on 29 of those 226 plays. They do not want him to do that. That is why Charbonnet played as much as he did this year. And so if you're going to be this blitz heavy team with him in the game that the two like matchup specific things New England can pick out in my opinion opinion it's Milt Williams and Barmore against Anthony Bradford and it is whatever the Blitz plan looks like against Kenneth Walker. Like those are the two areas where you got to pick at it if you're the Patriots and you're going to win this thing.

[Dave]

And to that point, I think a small thing that I would think about if I'm New England, New England, especially if I have Chase on or really any of my herald non Harold Landry edge players on the field, I would want them to Kenneth Walker's side. And if we're blitzing, we have that end peel off and just handle him because they, they're not going to keep Kenneth Walker into pass protect. Like, they don't want to do that. They want to get him out. And if, even if that guy can't run step for step with Kenneth Walker 20 yards down the field, he doesn't necessarily have to. He just has to be a flash of color. When Sam Darnold goes to look for that check, down he goes, oh, shit, that guy's not open.

[Robert Mays]

Now.

[Dave]

Sam Darnold holds on to the ball. And I do think Sam Darnold in the first 2 1/2 seconds of any snap is incredible. Like the arm talent really shines in a lot of those moments. The longer he holds the ball, the more you get some of these mistakes in some of these instances. And so I think if they can do that and just have like a kind of bespoke game plan to put some sort of lid on Kenneth Walker out of the backfield, that's a good way to limit some of their explosives.

[Derek]

It has not bitten him since that Carolina game toward the end of the regular season. Darnold has also put the ball on the ground four times in the last four games and some of that is botched snaps and you fall on it right away. I think that happened against the Rams and they had a miscommunication in the backfield against the 49ers in the regular season. It has not bitten them. But don't have one of those things go wrong in the Super Bowl. You know, like you wave that off when you fall on it right away against the Rams and nobody remembers it. It's a game defining play. And so four, four fumbles in the last four games, regardless. And all it takes is for that to get kicked into a Patriots grasp and it changes the entire game.

[Robert Mays]

The last kind of just schematic thing that I think will go a long way in determining how this side of the ball goes is what the Patriots do when The Seahawks play 12 personnel. That's what the Seahawks want to do. And so New England's response to that has changed situationally over the course of the year. A couple Seahawks offense stats in 12 personnel before we get into the Patriots side of this corrington as next gen against base defense this year when passing Sam Darnold 12 personnel against base when throwing the ball 11.3 air yards per attempt 13 and a half yards per attempt 31 explosive play rate 62% success rate 10.1 yards per play.

[Dave]

That ain't bad.

[Robert Mays]

Good, pretty good impact against nickel Yards per attempt goes down by 2.5x the explosive play rate is a third of what it is against base and the success rate goes from 62% to 47.5%. So that's 12 personnel against nickel. Looks why that matters here. The Patriots have it's been disparate their plan against 12 personnel whether they match with nickel or base. The determining factor for the most part has been whether Spillane is playing when he's in the game. They match per next gen, they match multiple tight end sets with nickel 45.5% of the time. When he's not, it's been 28.5% of the time. So essentially they're comfortable playing the run out of nickel against 12 when Spillane is playing. And we see that when you do that against Seattle, the passing game efficiency falls dramatically. So this then the question becomes if the Patriots are going to play nickel to 12 personnel, can Seattle run the ball against those looks with multiple tight ends on the field? Since the buy, the Patriots have allowed a 54% success rate on 12 personnel runs, which is 31st in the league over that time. So the gives and the takes when Seattle's in 12 and what you have to sacrifice defensively with New England, can Seattle take take advantage of whatever that choice is for the Patriots? That to me might be the most important thing, period, on that side of the ball because it drives what we're talking about, about being able to stay ahead of the sticks and make sure you're playing the game you want to on that side.

[Dave]

And I think too kind of with with what you were talking about earlier, like when, when New England is in base, it's not putting a third linebacker on the field, it's putting Kairos Tonga on the field, which is going to help you stop a lot of those inside runs because he's an incredible inside like nose guard. He does a really good job there. And so in some ways that gives you a little bit more like you kick Milton Williams and Christian Barmore out slightly, maybe a gap over Maybe they can run across like an outside zone, cut something off. But that's still not necessarily helping you on a lot of those outside runs that you're talking about, because when they're in 12 personnel, a lot of times they're putting those two guys on the same side of the line of scrimmage. You're creating these three and four man surfaces. Then you can hit the perimeter of the way that you're talking about. And so I don't know, I, I, I would almost want to be a nickel and just, just to have more team speed to the perimeter. More than anything, I would, I want.

[Robert Mays]

To make them run the ball against me to win this game. I do not want to allow them to hit four or five explosives throwing the ball out of 12 against base. And I think they've shown you that when their starters are out there, they want to play a nickel to 12. And I would not be surprised if that was their answer.

[Derek]

I'm asking my linebackers to have the game of their lives. Yeah, that's fine with me.

[Robert Mays]

All right.

[Derek]

Absolutely not. No, we're not done. We have to talk about special teams. We're going to podcast about special teams.

[Dave]

This Seahawks special teams is incredible. I mean, it's, it is kind of working.

[Derek]

Absolutely not. Okay. No. There are a couple things we have to mention specifically for the Seahawks side of this. Think about what Rashid Shahid has done.

[Robert Mays]

Yes.

[Derek]

For Seattle.

[Robert Mays]

You're right.

[Derek]

On special teams, by the way, Marcus Jones is tied for the league lead in punt return touchdowns on this.

[Robert Mays]

That's why I didn't feel like it was that important to talk about because both special teams are good.

[Dave]

Comes out in a while.

[Robert Mays]

That, that, that's kind of where I landed with this.

[Derek]

I'm glad you said that, though, because I think there is a little bit of a discrepancy. And it comes down to the kicker I pulled this off of. Yeah, you love that. I pulled this off off of.

[Sponsor Voice]

Next gen. Three people on the show.

[Robert Mays]

I. It was a mistake. It was a huge mistake.

[Derek]

Andy Bregales was one the of of eight kickers this year to finish with a negative field goal over expectation number. Of the eight that did that, five got cut this year. And another one was Brandon McManus, who Packer fans spent most of the year trying to cut. It's not.

[Robert Mays]

And he cost them in the end game.

[Derek]

Yes. BORRE Gallos was 7 of 11 between 40 and 49 yards this year. And he missed two extra points, missed two kicks in the AFC title game. I'm not going to hold that against him. Him too much because of the snow, but you still got to keep that in mind. Jason Myers, top 10 in field goal over expectation 4.2. So given the difficulty of the kicks, he's one of 10 kickers that had that high of a number. Though it's worth pointing out he had a rough day in the regular season finale against the 49ers. He missed from 47 and he missed from 26. It makes the main thing that makes me wonder is, is, is Bora Gallas enough of a liability that it makes Vrabel play things that much more aggressively? Like maybe you're not willing to settle?

[Robert Mays]

I, I think that's the mindset. They should probably take it in the game either way.

[Derek]

And the, and we talked about it on a previous show this week, the Seahawks are not a go for it team. They do it less than anybody in the league. Myers is typically reliable. Don't have a bad day. Don't let this be the day where you underperform what has been a mostly very good season.

[Robert Mays]

You feel better now?

[Derek]

I do feel better. Watch. It's gonna matter. It is going to matter.

[Robert Mays]

I'm. I'm giving him. I knew he was gonna do this and so it's why I didn't have to prepare any special team stuff for this show. All right, who WINS Super Bowl 60?

[Derek]

I don't, I don't like the vibes when it feels like one team is the overwhelming pick. But I think the Seahawks are a better team. Spreads four and a half.

[Robert Mays]

Four and a half.

[Derek]

I like the Seahawks to cover in this game. I think that, I really do think the Patriots defense can muck it up.

[Robert Mays]

That to me, is the path. When I saw four and a half originally, I was like, huh, what do I not understand about this? I think the answer to that is if it's an ugly enough game, even if Seattle feels like they have control of it the whole time, is it a five point game at the end because the Patriots ugly it up so much? Like that version of the game is easy for me to picture and understand.

[Sponsor Voice]

Yeah.

[Dave]

Yeah. That's kind of where I'm like, I, I do think the Seahawks win this game. I think that they probably cover, but it's easier to see the world where like the Seahawks defense is exactly as good as we think they are, but their offense sputters in the way that we've kind of just talked about a little bit and this ends up a, I don't know, like an 18 to 12 that sort of like, score type of game. That's a lot of. That would be a lot of field goals.

[Derek]

I love, I love a weird score in a Super bowl, though. I'm a big fan of like a memorable score line. I'll take Seattle, like 25, 20.

[Robert Mays]

I got 24, 16 Seattle. Yeah. So they cover and I think again, it's just a game where it feels like they're in control for most of it because I just, I don't want to overreact too much to what the Patriots offense has looked like in the playoffs. But this is the best defense they played against. Like, it's just hard for me to imagine a world outside of them hitting four or five explosives that maybe sneak up on us where the Patriots consistently move the ball in this game. It's hard.

[Dave]

Like, there were other circumstances for why they struggled in those games, the weather, all that stuff. But like, they, those were the three best defenses they played all year and they did not look good outside of like a couple of drives against Houston. Like, it's just when you, when you up the ante even more against the Seahawks team, it's tough.

[Derek]

I think you gotta. If you're the Patriots, this has to be a very, very bad Sam Darnold game. I think that's your best, best path to victory. But yeah, I like, I like the Seahawks.

[Robert Mays]

I think the Seahawks have been the best team in the league and I think they will show us again that they were the best team in the league the entire season. All right, that is all we've got from radio row here in San Francisco. Sincerely appreciate everybody checking out the stuff that we've been doing all week. We will have all of the play breakdown telestrator stuff that we've been doing with players that's going to be coming out on the YouTube channel over the next couple days. Could be coming out of the YouTube channel over the next couple weeks. Encourage you guys to check that out. We will be live from Levi's Stadium sometime after the game. I'm not going to give you a time because who knows what the Internet's going to look like? Who knows where we're going to be shooting from, the logistics of doing it from the actual game, we can debate whether they're worth it. I like going to the Super Bowl. So we're going to the Super Bowl. That's where we're doing it from. Be on the lookout for the broadcast time information for when we're doing that show, but it will be coming your guys way on Sunday night. Sincerely appreciate everybody listening to the show all year. We've had a blast. We got one more podcast to go and hopefully it's after a very, very good game. That's all we got for today. That's all we got from Radio Row. Appreciate you guys listening. We'll talk to you very soon.

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