Three questions about the 2026 QB draft class

Summary

Podcast Summary: The Athletic Football Show – Three Questions About the 2026 QB Draft Class

Podcast: The Athletic Football Show
Host: Robert Mays
Co-Host: Derek Klassen
Date: April 2, 2026
Episode Theme: Deep dive into the unique 2026 NFL QB draft class via three focused questions

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Overview

In this episode, Robert Mays and quarterback analyst Derek Klassen examine the 2026 NFL quarterback draft class, a group characterized by a lack of surefire stars beyond the consensus No. 1. The hosts structure their breakdown around three core questions: the true nature and ceiling of presumed No. 1 pick Fernando Mendoza; the draft value of Ty Simpson; and the mid/late-round QB most likely to emerge as a viable NFL starter. The discussion is thoughtful, nuanced, and leverages Klassen’s deep expertise in QB evaluation while also providing actionable insight for NFL fans and draft watchers.

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Main Discussion Points & Insights

1. Who Is Fernando Mendoza as a Prospect?

• (05:31–10:11)
• Mendoza has been widely presumed as the No. 1 overall pick—by default rather than out of exhaustive scrutiny.
• Perception Issues:
  • Seen as "quarterback one by default" which can cloud deeper evaluation.
  • His underdog college background (Indiana) influences how people view his makeup.
  • Off-field, his “goofy” personality isn’t typical “killer QB prospect.”
    • “He’s just kind of like… a goofy guy.” (05:55, Derek Klassen)
• Physical Tools:
  • Prototype size (6’5”, 230), strong runner, “sensational” arm strength; matches archetypes like Andrew Luck or Carson Palmer more than people realize.
  • Runs well, absorbs hits, throws deep outs and posts with impressive touch and power.
    • “He is the prototype for the position.” (05:55, Derek Klassen)
    • “He rips… not even a speed out, like a deep out from the far hash in college… I stood up straighter in my chair.” (07:09, Robert Mays)
• NFL Comparison:
  • Closest comp is Carson Palmer, particularly for throwing style and physical attributes.
    • “The guy he reminds me of most… is Carson Palmer.” (10:11, Robert Mays)
    • “I think that’s the best comp that I’ve heard for Mendoza this entire time.” (10:59, Derek Klassen)
• Ceiling Discussion:
  • More physically talented than mid-tier comps like Dak Prescott or Jared Goff.
  • Ceiling is “closer to Trevor Lawrence than to Jared Goff.” (13:07, Robert Mays)
  • Floor could resemble Sam Darnold in Minnesota (if it doesn’t work out).
• Intangibles:
  • Toughness and “big game mentality” are clear assets.
    • “He is a big, strong, brave player in the pocket.” (15:08, Robert Mays)
• Negatives/Red Flags:
  • Very RPO-heavy college offense; not tested as much in traditional NFL passing concepts.
    • “The sheer amount of RPOs in the Indiana offense… a bigger portion of their passing game than all the other quarterbacks.” (15:08, Robert Mays)
  • High sack rates at both Cal and Indiana suggest pocket management concerns.
  • Lacks pocket creativity—typically runs instead of extending plays like Mahomes or Allen.
    • “He is not creative really in the pocket.” (20:46, Robert Mays)

Notable Quotes

• “There just are fewer of these guys than you think. And he’s in that bucket and it’s really impressive.” (31:01, Derek Klassen)
• On ultimate recommendation:
  • “There’s, like, no ambiguity… absolutely, he is worth drafting with the number one overall pick.” (22:38, Robert Mays)
  • “He’s a better QB prospect than a number of other guys who have gone first overall—Bryce Young, Baker Mayfield…” (22:58, Derek Klassen)

Landing Spot: Raiders

• Both hosts agree he should sit behind a veteran (e.g., Kirk Cousins) for at least part of his rookie year to acclimate to Clint Kubiak’s NFL system.

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2. Is Ty Simpson Worth a Late First-Round Flyer?

• (33:18–50:49)
• Profile: 23-year-old, one-year Alabama starter, undersized (6’1”, ~205-211 lbs in reality), injured during key moments.
• Play Style:
  • Compared to Baker Mayfield for build, style, and range of outcomes.
    • “My comparison point for him… is kind of like Baker Mayfield.” (35:07, Derek Klassen)
  • Good velocity and occasional touch, but often strains to make throws, leading to inconsistent accuracy.
  • Brings more creativity and off-script ability than Mendoza.
    • “Ty Simpson will just kind of create some shit outside of the pocket. And I do think that’s a feather in his cap that Mendoza doesn’t quite have.” (21:56, Derek Klassen, earlier segment)
  • Aggressive and athletic; used well in boots and keepers.
• Concerns:
  • Age and limited starting experience are significant red flags.
  • Accuracy is inconsistent, particularly under duress; accuracy “drain” is a major red flag by the analytics.
    • “If you watch his three best plays a game… he looks like the first overall pick.” (39:15, Derek Klassen)
    • “If you’re going to be that sort of guy… you need to be, like, super clean to be a high-level quarterback in the NFL. And he’s just not that.” (39:54, Robert Mays)
  • Lacks high-end arm or athletic ceiling relative to smaller size.
  • Not a good enough prospect to justify trading back into late Round 1 for the fifth-year option.
• Draft Philosophy:
  • Most comfortable for teams to take him between picks 45–70.
    • “That’s the range where he should go: 45 to 70 in my mind.” (46:08, Derek Klassen)
  • Fits as a second-round contingency or developmental prospect, not a savior.
• Team Fits:
  • Rams (Pick 61), Pittsburgh (53), Atlanta (48), Philadelphia (54) as possible fits due to ability to sit and develop.
  • Should avoid chaotic or dysfunctional environments.

Notable Quotes

• “There are too many parts of his profile that don’t make sense.” (41:19, Derek Klassen)
• “I do think he’s a worthwhile gamble in the second round.” (46:56, Robert Mays)
• “If he’s there at 77 for Tampa Bay, I don’t think that’s that bad of an idea.” (61:18, Derek Klassen)

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3. Which QB Outside the Top 50 Could Become a Capable Starter?

• (52:19–66:52)
• Garrett Nussmeier (LSU) is Klassen’s choice.
  • Accurate at all three levels, shows toughness, can make throws under pressure.
  • Moves well in the pocket—“quick and flexible,” drawing style comps between Brock Purdy and Jimmy Garoppolo.
    • “He’s the perfect middle point between Brock Purdy and Jimmy Garoppolo.” (54:11, Robert Mays)
    • “There’s a little bit of creativity to Nussmeier, but it’s not quite to the same level as Brock Purdy… but it’s definitely more than Jimmy Garoppolo.” (54:16, Derek Klassen)
    • “He just seems like that kind of guy [career backup].” (57:56, Robert Mays)
  • Aggressive but not reckless, with some “bonehead” moments (like both comps).
  • Viable starter in a plus system (especially Shanahan/McVay frameworks); floor is rock-solid backup.
• Best Fits: Packers (Pick 84), Rams (93), Bengals (72), Eagles, Buccaneers as backup/future play.
• Draft Value: Should go in the 3rd round; still very good value if becomes a functional mid-tier NFL starter.

Notable Quotes

• “If you get [a Brock Purdy/Jimmy Garoppolo hybrid] in the third round, that’s probably pretty good value.” (57:23, Derek Klassen)

Bonus: Another Late-Round Swing – Carson Beck

• (62:59–65:10)
• Beck (Miami/Georgia) could be a viable backup/mid-tier option.
  • Improved size and arm strength at Miami, willing to throw over the middle, solid enough processor.
  • Fit: Cleveland with Todd Monken (107th overall) makes sense as a familiar backup/developmental pick.

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Key Takeaways & Memorable Moments

• Mendoza is a much more physically gifted and high-upside prospect than most pundits realized; Carson Palmer is the best comp – more so than Goff or Dak Prescott. (10:11–10:59)
• If Mendoza fails, “Minnesota Sam Darnold” is the low-end scenario, not total bust. (66:52)
• Simpson should not be traded up for in Round 1; solid gamble in Rounds 2/3 for teams with structure.
• Nussmeier perfectly fits the “Purdy-Garoppolo median;” ideal third-round value as a developmental backup or even “good enough” starter. (54:11–54:16)
• Carson Beck is a viable day-three dart throw, especially for a team with connections and need at backup.
• Overall: Only one true “starter-ready” QB, but there’s real depth for teams betting on development after the top 50.

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Segment Timestamps

• 01:21–04:06 – Episode setup, overview of class, and questions to be answered
• 05:31–31:33 – Deep dive: Who is Fernando Mendoza?
• 33:18–50:49 – Is Ty Simpson a round-one worthy bet?
• 52:19–62:59 – Best longshot QB outside top 50 (Garrett Nussmeier discussion)
• 62:59–65:10 – Bonus late-round discussion: Carson Beck as value backup option
• 65:30–67:48 – Final thoughts: Mendoza’s strengths/concerns; summary of class

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Original Language & Tone

Throughout, Mays and Klassen balance analytic jargon with conversational expertise, admitting past misjudgments and digging into nuanced aspects of player evaluation. Humor and self-awareness leaven the technical analysis (“He’s just a goofy guy”; "I’ve ‘men-in-black neuralyzered’ myself to forget Russell Wilson on the Giants"), making the episode accessible to both draft diehards and casual NFL fans.

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For Listeners Who Missed the Episode

If you’re curious about the 2026 QB class, this episode is an ideal, straightforward primer. It cuts through the pre-draft cliché and identifies genuine upside (Mendoza), reasonable gambles (Simpson, Nussmeier), and the value of patience and environment for passer development. The analysis here will be referenced all spring—and the prospect comps and strategic draft insight will resonate long after.

Transcript

[Robert Mays]

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[Robert Mays]

Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays. It is quarterback day here on the Athletic Football show. Digging into the 2026 quarterback class with our guy Derek Classen, who I didn't say this to him on the show, but it is very true. Very few people have an eye for the position the way that Derek does. He does such a great job of articulating what guys, what makes guys unique, what makes them able to succeed. And so we did some of that Today. About the 2026 group of quarterbacks. It's a strange group. You know, there aren't a lot of surefire first round picks. There aren't a lot of guys that we assume are even going to go in the and so instead of going through the class as a whole, we decided to ask three questions about the 2026 quarterback class today. Question 1 what is Fernando Mendoza as a prospect? What type of ceiling are we talking about here? Where does he kind of stack up to guys historically? Because we've just assumed he was going to go number one? Overall, I think I've been guilty of this. I just haven't thought about him as much as I might. Other quarterback prospects. And I think that's kind of clouded some of the actual things that make him who he is as a player. And so I wanted to really dig into that with Derek today. Question two, is Ty Simpson worth a flyer in the back half of the first round? There's a couple layers to that question, and I think we dug into all of it. The player that Ty Simpson is, but also who should be making a bet on a guy like ty Simpson. And three, outside of the top 50, which is where most of the other quarterbacks, all the other quarterbacks in this draft are likely going to be taken. Who is the guy that Derek would bet on being a capable starter at some point during his rookie contract? Those are the three questions we hit today. Me and Derek Classen. Let's dig into it. Right now, It is officially quarterback Day here on the Athletic Football Show. Going to be digging into what we've established is kind of a strange class of quarterbacks. Right? We know who's going number one. There aren't really any debates about much of the ordering, but I still think there are some conversations that are worth chewing on. And even though Derek cheated on us with another podcast earlier today by already talking quarterbacks, we're going to allow that to slide one time and dive back

[Derek Classen]

in today with Nate Tice, of all people, the guy, the guy who I felt burned. But, I mean, I'm glad to do this. Like, I get finally getting into the stage of the draft season where, like, I fully dive into all the quarterbacks is. It's in my handle. It's obviously my favorite part of the draft season. So I've done a lot of the other draft work. But for to spend the last, like, week, like, really digging into these guys, five, six games, like, how do I really think about them? It's been a really good time.

[Robert Mays]

Yeah, I love your takes on quarterbacks, always. I love how you process those guys. I love what you. Your takeaways when you watch them. And like I said, we're not going to dive into this in the same way we have in other years. There are other podcasts, other draft seasons where we've done deep dives on, like, all five guys that might go on the first round. We just know this isn't that sort of draft. We know who's going number one. We know that Ty Simpson's probably going to be the second quarterback taken. After that, it becomes a little murkier and we'll talk about that. But so I wanted to focus this show on three specific questions about the 20, 26 quarterback class. Two of those questions are going to be about specific prospects, and the third one is going to be about, again, those guys who might go a little bit later the draft. This first question, we've danced around this a little bit, but it was before I really had a chance to go watch this player, and that's Fernando Mendoza. And so the question I wanted to ask in the way that I wanted to talk about him is essentially, who is Fernando Mendoza, and what is Fernando Mendoza as a prospect? Like, what type of player are we really talking about here? Because I think as somebody who walked into the draft process a little bit later and just had kind of more picked up on the vibes surrounding this discussion, it kind of felt to no fault of his own, that Mendoza was the top quarterback in this draft by default. And so if that's the case, what type of player are we really discussing? And so that's what I wanted to dig into with you today.

[Derek Classen]

His perception suffers from so many things, I think. I think there's that part of it where it's like, quarterback won by default. So it's like, in a way, we almost, like, stop evaluating him in a way, because it's like, oh, well, he's going to be the guy. So it's like, what does it do?

[Robert Mays]

This exactly. Like, the idea that there's no ambiguity about where he's going or what team he's going to. It almost feels like we can just stop doing this. But in reality, I think there's so much that's kind of worth peeling back

[Derek Classen]

here 100%, because there's. There's that element of it. I think there's also the. He's just kind of like. He's a goofy guy. And so I think we just don't imagine those guys as being, like, the prototype, just like, killer quarterback, prospect, all that stuff. And then I think there's also the element of Indy. He brought Indiana, of all programs, this, like, underdog program. Like, they did it. And I think for better or for worse, in our minds, whenever we imagine underdogs, we imagine, like, the smaller guys, the scrappier guys, all that stuff. And so all of that perception stuff kind of leaks into how we talk about him. And then you look at him and he's like 6, 5, 2, 30, runs incredibly well. He takes hits, his arm is sensational. Like, he just. He is the prototype for the position. And I think when we think about the modern NFL, like, maybe he lacks a little bit of the creativity and agility that you see from like Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, but everybody under that, he's kind of got all the same stuff.

[Robert Mays]

We'll dig into that. Because I do think if you are going to quibble with what he is, that's one of the areas where you can talk about that a little bit. But I'll say this, you and Dave, to your credit, you said, I think you'll be a little bit surprised when you actually go watch him and you try to compare the perception around him and what he actually is as a player. And I think that was spot on. And. And I turned on. I can't remember which game it was. It might have been the Ohio State playoff game. And he rips not even a speed out, like a deep out from the far hash in college. And I'm sitting there and I was. I stood up like straighter in my. Sat up like straighter in my chair. I was like, oh, shit. Like, I don't think I realized, like, this is what we were dealing with here. And so you see the giddy up in his arm, especially on those throws. Like, those are the throws that really made me take notice when it came to the arm talent and arm strength that we were talking about here. Is that his ability to drive the ball outside of the numbers from the opposite hash in college with those wider hashes that you think are the bane of all football at that level, and they are ability to do that is incredibly impressive. Like, you just don't see a ton of guys that make those sorts of throws look that easy. And that's before you even get to some of the throws he's making down the field consistently.

[Derek Classen]

And it's easy. Like, he's just a smooth, smooth thrower. It does not look like he's straining himself very hard to do it. He's just like a guy who's got a lot of natural torque and a lot of natural power to him, and it's really impressive. And like, those outside the numbers throws are huge. The couple of ones that really always stood out to me were like, when he throws a post route. Yes, there are somewhere. It's like 60 yards in the air, hits the guy in stride, and it's like, there's just. You don't find that really almost hardly ever. And so for him to be able to do that, the arm talent really is like, when he's on his spot in the pocket, it's awesome. And then again, I would say he's not like arm elasticity, like creation, as cool as, like, some of the other top quarterbacks. But when he's on the move, he's a very fluid and accurate thrower. Like he, he can just throw from any platform. I think like he's the arm talent really is pretty striking.

[Robert Mays]

So the tooth plays I was talking about that, that deep out was against Oregon in the college football championship. And then the big post that was, that jumped out to me was against Ohio State. He threw a huge post in that game against Ohio State. That really kind of makes you widen your eyes a little bit. And so when I was watching him, and even based on some of the conversations we had had, which again I want to revisit here a little bit as we dig further into this discussion, but I was like, all right, well who does, who does he remind me of? Like if I was trying to compare him to an NFL quarterback and I know that's not, that shouldn't be the foundation of how we do this, but I think it's just tempting to figure out like what are the pathways to success? What do guys in the NFL who have his certain archetype, how have they succeeded, how have they failed? And it was hard to figure out somebody because in terms of like physical profile, like he's kind of built like Andrew Luck. But Andrew Luck came from a very pro style offense in college. I think there are some differences in like in how I would compare them. The guy that I actually, when I really thought about it as a thrower, the guy he reminds me of the most. And I think that the size, his style is a thrower. And I think even early in this player's career he was an underrated athlete and that went away as he got a little bit older. He kind of reminds me of Carson Palmer.

[Derek Classen]

Oh, that's incredible. I love that actually because again, especially those, the deep outs. How often do you remember watching that 2015 Cardinals film where it's just like 1st and 10, they throw it right at the sticks every frickin series.

[Robert Mays]

The deep outs and the posts, yes, the posts that Carson Palmer, those big posts that Carson Palmer would throw. And so I was, I was kind of like chipping away at it and I was like, what is it? And then was looking at physical comps and him and Carson again, Carson Palmer, 6, 5, 2, 3 prototype, like statuesque quarterback in a good way. Like a statue you'd put in bronze. Because he just built like the guys we imagine them. That's kind of what Mendoza is. And even stylistically as a thrower, that is the guy he reminds me of the most when I like actually think about it and so now that I saw it, I like can't unsee it, but I do think there's something there

[Derek Classen]

I might steal that. I, I think that's the best comp that I've heard from Mendoza this entire time because there are, you're right, he. Of current NFL quarterbacks, I feel like it's a little hard to find. Like, who is the guy that I like the most? Like, you know, I, I, not current technically now, but like Matt Ryan I've seen a little bit, but I think he's even a little bit different than that. Obviously athletically different than that. There's like a little bit of Dak Prescott to him. But I really do think that like Carson Palmer in that similar ish archetype really is like the best, best comparison.

[Robert Mays]

He's more talented than Dak Prescott. Yeah, the arm is stronger than Dak

[Derek Classen]

and that's arm is good, but like it's, this might be a different tier.

[Robert Mays]

And so this is why I wanted to kind of revisit the conversation that we had last week and a listener sent in a mailbag question to us about Fernando Mendoza and the idea of like, well, if he's going to be the 16th best quarterback in the league, is that somebody that's worth taking number one overall? And again, as somebody who hadn't really studied him and thought of him as more like a mid tier player when it came to the tools, I was like, well, is that is the Dak Prescott kind of path, his best path to being like a top eight quarterback in the league. And now after watching him, I actually don't think that's right because I do actually think that he's more physically talented than a guy like Dak Prescott is. And that actually makes in my mind his path to being like a top 10 quarterback in the league. Not as narrow as we were framing it to be during that discussion. And so again, kind of opening up the present and taking a look at actually what's inside, it kind of pushes me to think about him in a slightly different way than I was before when I really didn't understand what I

[Derek Classen]

was working with totally. Because like, if we're using, I feel like Jared Goff is the perfect like gatekeeper to top 10, you know what I mean? Like, he's the perfect guy to hold there. He's way more talented than Goff. Like Goff is a really, really talented thrower, but I think Mendoza is even more talented as a thrower than that, especially down the field. And then obviously athletically, I mean it's just two different stratospheres there. And so like Mendoza I think could absolutely reach into that ceiling of again everything short of like the true, just fire breathing dragon guys, I think is, is like kind of on the table for him because athletically he's just really impressive.

[Robert Mays]

He's obviously, I mean, I'm going to say something, I'm curious if you think this is like too far in terms of like the spectrum of physical talent. He's closer to Trevor Lawrence than he is to Jared Goff.

[Derek Classen]

So actually I. Here's my take. We talked about this a little bit on the show. I think if I'm trying to find like a current comp for him, he's like if Trevor just wasn't a bozo like three times a game.

[Robert Mays]

But it's also, I think the touch he plays with is a little different than the touch.

[Derek Classen]

It is a little bit better.

[Robert Mays]

Like Trevor is a twitchier athlete, Trevor is a more creative player. But when you watch Trevor, even that. And it's to me it's the deep balls like down the, like the vertical, the perimeter deep balls and the touch he has on those. Trevor has never been best at throwing those just because he is more of a line drive thrower. So I think that to me is why that comparison. I almost went there but it didn't really make sense because of that one

[Derek Classen]

specific element and Palmer had that. Which is why again as soon as I heard that I was like that way.

[Robert Mays]

It doesn't with Trevor exactly.

[Derek Classen]

Like it's the Palmer one is really good. I'm not going to be able to forget that now. That's really good. And again, Palmer, obviously Palmer's career was really weird. Like blows out the knee, had all the weird stuff with Cincinnati, goes to the Raiders, obviously they're terrible. But when he found himself again, he was playing like an MVP quarterback. And I don't think people would necessarily say that he was like the second or third best quarterback. Like if you were just drafting him, obviously like Peyton Manning was still playing all that stuff. I mean well, 2015 Peyton Manning. But you, you get my point.

[Robert Mays]

But at Palmer in 2015 if, if Cam hadn't had that season.

[Derek Classen]

Yes.

[Robert Mays]

Carson Palm, Carson Palmer in 2015, his MVP would have been very similar to Matthew Stafford's MVP this year.

[Derek Classen]

Oh, a hundred percent. And like again, if, if Cam didn't have a special special season across from that, he probably wins mvp. And if he doesn't, if he doesn't tweak his, what was it, like his index finger or something going into the playoffs. Like they might have been the team that represented the NFC in the super bowl that year. And I think again, who, who knows if Mendoza quite reaches that peak or can do it consistently, but I do think an outcome like that is totally on the table for him.

[Robert Mays]

All right, So I think that's, those are like the high end, like lofty. These are the things that Fernando Mendoza is bringing to the table in terms of tools and as a prospect. And I think any excitement about that stuff is justified when you go watch him. And that's even before getting to some of like the big play, like big game mentality stuff, the toughness. You mentioned it. He gets smoked on some of these plays. Like he is a big, strong, brave player in the pocket. And I think that the intangible elements, he deserves a lot of credit for what a lot of those look like and how they manifest on tape. The negatives. There are some things that I think are worth bringing up. The first thing to me in going back and watching a few of these games, again, a kind of cold, is just the sheer amount of RPOs in the Indiana offense. Like when you go watch them and it's good stuff, it makes sense in terms of like what they're trying to do. And he's making the right play very often, but the amount of like access underneath hitch RPOs in this offense, it makes up a bigger portion of their passing game than all the other quarterbacks that we're going to talk about today. And a lot of quarterbacks in college football, again, is a very RPO heavy offense that he was running at Indiana. And so I just think there are fewer NFL type concepts that he was asked to do than you'd maybe want in a perfect world. And so I think that does leave a little bit of ambiguity about how he's going to look when he's asked to play a different style of football in the NFL.

[Derek Classen]

It does. And I would say too, one of the, one of the big surprises when I watched him was like, man, physically he is incredibly talented. The second surprise was like the offense doesn't do as much as I thought it would do for like a first overall type of quarterback. And so I think that that's a totally valid criticism. I, I, I'm not necessarily worried about that as it pertains to like long term. I just think maybe like year one is a little bit more slower and up and down than we might expect it to be. Especially because the KUBIAK offense is like the polar opposite of that.

[Robert Mays]

So I want to save this because I do want to have that conversation. But in your mind, I think that's a really important distinction. We always do this with prospects and I think this is a conversation you have to have. Did he not do it because he can't do it or did he not do it because the offense didn't ask him to do it? And in your mind, based on what you've seen in other areas, do you think when he is in a system that requires him to do that a little bit more often and when he has more time in that sort of system, do you have faith that he can become a fluent player in a lot of those things that he's going to be asked to do that he wasn't before?

[Derek Classen]

I do think so. And again, maybe it takes a year or two but I just when he was forced into those situations like you mentioned in some big games, late in games, you're not really rpoing as much like that is a little bit more like drop back four out in the concept like I've got to make a play. And he was pretty nails to me in a lot of those situations. And so I think part of it with Indiana again and maybe I'm just like painting a narrative of a player that I like. To me it was less he can't do other stuff. It was we have three NFL wide receivers, let's dumb this down and just like rip it to those guys. And they did a really, really good job of that.

[Robert Mays]

The other aspect where it's like okay, this I get where people would be a little bit worried about this. When he was at Cal he took an astronomical amount of sacks. His pressure to sacrate at Cal was like more than 25%. It was a top 10 rate among full time starters in FBS according to PFF. And at Indiana it was less. But he still had a 19% pressure to sacrate at Indiana. And again, when you think about the context of the offense and the amount of times where you're even in a position to take a sack, he still is somebody that takes a decent amount of them. And to me it's not even the end result. When I watch him, he's. This is, it's a complicated, it's a complicated thing because he's very tough in the pocket and he's willing to create as a runner and he will take off. But I think he often gets panicky in the pocket more than you want to see him get panicky. In the pocket, like when something's not there, he'll pull the ball down and not really have an answer a little bit more often than I'd probably like in an ideal circumstance.

[Derek Classen]

And do you know who that reminds me of? Funny enough? Sam Darnold. I feel like that is kind of like his lower ish end outcome. Obviously, like any player could be worse than that. But I feel like a, you know, 35th percentile outcome for him is that he's something like Sam Darnold, where it's like he'll hang in there and make some just absolutely nails throws. But if he's got to move off his spot a little bit or he hangs onto it for just a little bit longer, he might do something dumb and he might throw it up and it might be an interception or he might take a sack. He's not supposed to. And so I think for me, it's. I'm not going to sit here and say that that doesn't exist in his game. Like I think it absolutely does. To me, it becomes with those guys who are kind of taking some sacks like that and making those plays, does it come out in the wash with how good his highs are? Like, you think about like the best of Geno Smith, the best of what we saw from Sam Darnold recently. Ben Roethlisberger was a player who took a ton of sacks, but obviously the. The high end of it comes out of the wash because he's just creating so many explosive plays downfield. And I think that that is probably going to have to be the path for a player like him.

[Robert Mays]

So that. That's an interesting way of framing it because I think that with Roethlisberger, Roethlisberger created late in the down very often, even if he wasn't a super mobile guy in terms of like being a runner, he did create a lot just outside of the pocket. Like, he extended plays as a thrower very often. And I wonder with Mendoza, is the calculus a little bit different? Because he's not doing that quite as often. Right. He's not quite as creative as a player. And that to me is the last little thing of all.

[Derek Classen]

Right.

[Robert Mays]

This is what would be a knock against him. He is not creative really in the pocket. Like, if he's going to outside of like very quickly making a decision and pushing the ball and being aggressive and being accurate in all the ways you want to see, he's probably going to run like that is the next option he typically goes to. And that's. That is a gap between where a lot of quarterbacks can be and where the best quarterbacks in the NFL are. He's not just. He's really not that creative of a player. And so if you're not going to be that creative of a player, does that change the thought process around how many sacks you're going to allow?

[Derek Classen]

Right.

[Robert Mays]

We allowed Drake May to take a few more sacks one yard deep in the line and in the backfield because of what he can do as a scrambler and what he can do a little bit later in the down. Is Fernando Mendoza giving you enough on the other side of that to justify the number of sacks that he may

[Derek Classen]

be taking in terms of, like, the creative plays outside of the pocket? I'm not sure, because while I think he throws well on the move, which I mentioned earlier, he doesn't, like, create plays out of thin air the way that, like last. Last year, Cam Ward. Cam Ward would get outside of the pocket and just create something out of nowhere. Or Drake May, like you mentioned, Kayla Williams. He doesn't really do that.

[Robert Mays]

But I think Ty Simpson does it

[Derek Classen]

more than he does. Yes, he does. Ty Simpson will just kind of create some shit outside of the pocket. And I do think that that's a feather in his cap that Mendoza doesn't quite have. I do think, though, that if you are good enough throwing down the field to generate explosives, which I believe that he is, and an efficient scrambler, like, when he runs, it is a good gain almost every time. Like, he knows when to do it, how to do it. It's obviously really tough when he runs. I think you can make up for it that way. And I do think that he checks those two boxes. So you're probably still, again, leaving stuff off the table in a way that, like, Lamar Jackson's not going to, Patrick Mahomes isn't going to. But I do think that, like, if we're talking about just, can he get into that next tier of quarterback production, I think even with some of his blemishes, he's probably okay.

[Robert Mays]

Yeah. So I want to talk about the specific landing spot and the plan for him when he gets to the Raiders. You were alluding to it before, and I want to dig into that. First of all, the question of, like, whether he should be the number one pick or whether he's a worthwhile number one pick. There's, like, no ambiguity to that for me. Like, it is a resounding, like, absolutely, he is worth drafting with the number one overall pick.

[Derek Classen]

He's a better quarterback prospect than a Number of other guys who have gone first overall. Bryce Young, Baker Mayfield. I think he's a better prospect than I thought. Kyler Murray was coming out like he's a better pro. Jared Goff, like, he's. I think he's a better prospect than a lot of these guys. And so I think it's just. It's just boring to say it because, again, you're not, like, comparing him to some other guy in the class. It's just like, well, he's the guy, and that's kind of it.

[Robert Mays]

Yes. And I. I'm 100% with you on that. And I think I would rather have him than Ken Ward, if I'm being honest. Like, I think that Cam Ward. I get that one.

[Derek Classen]

For me, I get why you love

[Robert Mays]

Cam Ward, but at the same time, I think that if I were just stacking them up against each other, I think I feel a little bit safer about Mendoza's floor and the amount of blemishes, bad decisions, just kind of volatility on his tape compared to a guy like Cam Ward.

[Derek Classen]

And I think that that's fair to me. They are the same tier of quarterback prospect. And I think, again, there are a little bit more concerns with Ward. He's a little bit smaller. He's not quite as good of an athlete as I think Mendoza is. He's a little bit more prone to putting the ball in danger at times. But I just, for me, the elasticity in Ward's arm and some of the creativity I do really value. And so, again, Mendoza is a great prospect. But if I'm like, having to give a guy a 1% more bump, I maybe put Ward. But again, if I would take Ward 1 last year, I still would have taken Mendoza 2. Like, this is not like, these are guys you still take at that. That spot in the draft.

[Robert Mays]

The other thing I'll throw out about Mendoza that I do think is at least worth thinking about is what he was asked to shoulder within the offense compared to what a lot of other college quarterbacks are asked to shoulder. That team was so good, and they were operating from such advantageous situations all the time. He threw for 2,700 yards in 12 regular season games. Like, that's. It's just not that much.

[Derek Classen]

It's a little bit like the Alabama quarterbacks for a while, where it's like, you guys are super productive, but it's a little bit of rpo. It's a lot of. You got. Got NFL receivers here. It's a lot of, like, your defense probably probably helping you out more than other teams. So like that, that aspect of it I do get, but like the physical tools kind of help me climb out of that and stop worrying about it quite as much.

[Robert Mays]

I think that's fair. I, I, I think I would land in the exact same spot. But again, if you're just going to compare him historically to other guys who typically go in this range, again, 12 regular season games, he threw for 2,758 yards. He threw for 32 touchdowns in those games. But just the pure volume and what he had to shoulder within the offense I think is just a little bit less going back to the Raiders, I think two questions I would ask you and you touched on it a little bit, this idea. And Clint Kubiak has been very open about this throughout the entire process so far where he's like, I think guys would benefit from sitting. I wouldn't want to throw this guy in there right away. And I think with Mendoza specifically, I absolutely think that's the right move just because for the exact reason we started with, I just don't think he has done enough of the stuff that he's going to be asked to do consistently. And I think it's worth allowing him to learn in a practice setting for a decent amount of time before you throw him into that scenario. And let's go back to Sam Darnold. Okay. I vividly remember sitting with Sam Darnold at training camp two years ago, the 2024 season before he became the starter for the Vikings. And we were talking about the year that he spent in San Francisco and how important that year was to his development, how he saw the NFL game and how, how he saw a quarterback's role in the, in an NFL context, all of that happened without playing, all of it. Clint Kubiak was there. Clint Kubiak was the passing game coordinator. It is the, the system is rooted in the same ideas. And so I do think that there is immense value in a guy like Fernando Mendoza coming from the offense he came from in college, just sitting there for eight weeks, 10 weeks, maybe even the full season, maybe, maybe you let him play for the first, last six games of the year just to get his feet wet and get him a little bit of experience. But the idea of bringing in a Kirk Cousins, allowing Kirk to start for the first half of the year, the first 10 games of the year, and then letting Mendoza kind of play some mop up duty in the back half of the season, I don't, I think that's absolutely the right mindset and approach beyond in a vacuum. But specifically for this player in this moment within this offense, we've gotten to

[Derek Classen]

a point where like, we just expect all these guys to play and to start, especially if you're taking them top five that we like that as that has almost been pushed aside the idea of like, oh well you should sit them. But I do think almost any quarterback prospect, even the best ones would probably benefit from like a year on the bench. And like, that's not even to say they can't still have a decent rookie year. It's just like all of these guys would benefit from taking a year to learn how the NFL works. And so if the Raiders could swing that and they can, they can sign like a Kirk Cousins or something to hold it down for eight weeks, I think that that would be valuable. Like, I think, you know, last year, not that Jackson dart was anything special, but I think coming from the, the offense that he came from at Ole Miss where it was a lot of like RPO or these really designer like shot plays, like, it was pretty far away from what an NFL offense looks like. And I do think him getting, you know, five, six, seven weeks, whatever it was to get on the bench and to just settle into what the NFL looked like a little bit, that probably helped him as compared to having had to rush out there week one. And I probably would have been like, I don't know if he could handle anything week one.

[Robert Mays]

I have met in black. What's the memorize the memory thing of Men in Black all bars neuralyzer. I've men in blacked neural. I've men in black neuralizer myself against the Russell Wilson experience with the Giants. I completely don't remember the Cowboys was the starting quarterback for the Giants last year.

[Derek Classen]

Dude, the Cowboys game where he looked, he threw like 500 yards. It's whatever it was like, it's gone.

[Robert Mays]

You, you, you, you talking about it is the only reason I am now aware that that actually happened. But I think that's a great comparison and I, I think that that's. He would benefit from that in the same way. So if we're conceding that Mendoza would probably benefit from sitting a little bit when he gets to that point where it's been an entire off season, an entire training camp and two months of the year to kind of sit within this offense, how do you think he fits what Clint Kubiak wants to do? Based on what we saw from Seattle

[Derek Classen]

last year, I think he'll ease into it pretty well. And I do Think, you know, the biggest thing for him transitionally is probably just going to be like, what is his footwork and comfort look like? Going from pure gun RPO stuff to a little bit more like, all right, we're seven step, drop under center, play action, all that stuff. But with me, that's one of those things where it's like, if the guy's good enough, he's going to be able to learn how to do it and it's not going to be a problem. And I do think that Mendoza's footwork otherwise, when you watch him like, is pretty crisp. It is pretty timely. I think he looks pretty good in that sense. So I think he'll probably take to that stuff pretty well. And then in terms of where the offense wants to attack, because it's under center and it's a lot of zone stuff, you're going to get a lot of boot. I think he's a really good thrower on the move. He'll probably handle that stuff well. I think a lot of the, you know, in breaking play action stuff they want to do, I think he can rip those really well. And you saw some of that and then the down the field shots that he wants to take, I think that that is going to fit really well for him too. So if I'm the only complaint I have really with the fit is when you watch Mendoza, one of, one of his best traits, one of his best throws is those like 16 yards, stop route outside the numbers, pins it on a back shoulder. The Raiders do not have a player who is ready for that kind of ball. So maybe if they could get a guy like that in a year or two, that would be great. But that's kind of my biggest complaint with the fit right now.

[Robert Mays]

All right. Anything else about Mendoza? I think we hit most of the stuff I wanted to, but really interesting player. I just, again, somebody that was a little bit surprising. And I left way more excited about him than I think I expected to for all the reasons that we said. I just think that the strangeness of this draft and of this quarterback class has kind of, in my mind, at least from an outsider's perspective, clouded the way that we've talked about him a little bit. And so it was fun to kind of have the skies clear and like, actually get like a real view of what this actually is.

[Derek Classen]

Yeah, he's. He's a player who grew on me. Like, the last thing I'll say is when I watched him at first, like on just a couple of broadcast games in like December Just to get a look at him, I was like, you know, he's, he's all right, but this kind of just feels like whatever. And then you really watch him. You really look at what he is physically. You compare him to other guys and it's like there just are fewer of these guys than you think. And he's in that bucket and it's really impressive.

[Robert Mays]

All right, we're going to take our first quick break and then come back with question number two about the 2026 quarterback class.

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[Robert Mays]

Question number two. I think according to the consensus board, most analysts, maybe even you, I think your yours is a little bit closer than most people. But a lot of people out there have Ty Simpson from Alabama as the second best quarterback in this draft class. The question I wanted to ask you about Simpson is not whether he's number two, whether he's number three, but it's about the range of the draft he might Go in. Do you think in your mind that Ty Simpson is worth a late first round flyer from a team that believes in him?

[Derek Classen]

Only if you really, really, really think the fifth year option is like, holds a lot of value, which at that position it kind of does. But that to me is really the only argument because I think if you look at what his profile is, this to me is just. Is not really a first round quarterback and there's stuff that he does well, which we'll talk about. But if you just look at his profile from like a overarching 10,000 foot view, he's a little bit older. He's 23 years old, which can be fine if you have experience. He's a one year starter at Alabama, which, like that, that's a little bit concerning. For about half of that season he was hurt and banged up like he had some back issues. I think he ended up having like a stomach problem where he wasn't playing well down the year. He's a little bit undersized. Like he's, he's one of those guys who's like 6:1. I think at the combine he was 211, but you know, let's be realistic. That's probably more like 205 playing weight. It's just, it's a lot of these factors where it's like this is just typically not a guy who goes in the first round, especially when you have all of those factors together.

[Robert Mays]

Let's talk about him as a player first and then we can talk about the range and the value and the set of decisions that a team might have to make. So as you watch him, what kind of quarterback are we talking about here? Like what kind of player are we discussing when we dig into Ty Simpson?

[Derek Classen]

So my comparison point for him, and it's, it's not necessarily one to one, but it's kind of like Baker Mayfield. Ish. And that is part of the stylist in comparison. And it's also like part range of outcome. I think that is like at the top for him where Baker Mayfield is somewhere between like 13 and 20, you know, however you want to put it, just depending on how he's playing right now. And I think that like in the best outcome, that's what you're getting from Ty Simpson. I think some of the reasons, I think they are kind of similar is Ty Simpson gets velocity on the ball and there are a couple of instances where he can get touched. But I think like Baker Mayfield and he really strains to throw and because of that, sometimes you get Accuracy, drain, I think, especially in the short area. And I think similar to Baker, and you see this a lot with the shorter quarterbacks. A lot of the shorter quarterbacks can get like, typewriter feet and be like, really on their toes because they're shorter. Like, they want to be able to get up and see. Baker Mayfield has this problem. Bryce Young, Drew Brees was like this, but obviously overcame it because he's Drew Brees. But I think because of that, sometimes those guys can get a little bit. They can get out of rhythm with their footwork and they can get out of sync. And I think you see that a lot, I think, with Ty Simpson, especially after he comes off of his first read. But to his credit, I do think, and we could. We said this against Mendoza, there is a little bit of creativity to his game when he gets outside of the pocket. He's a pretty good scrambler. He knows how to make throws. He's willing to make aggressive throws down the field. And so which is kind of like Baker, like, when Baker gets out there, like, you'll go do some stuff and then, you know, he can make some plays for you. I think it's just a matter of, is he making enough of those to make up for the fact that he's a little bit smaller, he's. He's missing some throws, all that sort of stuff. So I. I get the appeal of him, but I am probably a little bit lower on him than a lot of other people.

[Robert Mays]

I don't know what to make of it. I. I really don't know what to make of it. Because when you watch him, there is a lot of stuff where you're like, I can work with that. And I think the creativity is absolutely part of it, like his ability outside of the pocket. And they used it. They used him on a ton of. Of keepers and boots. And when he got out into that space, he did a great job of, like, finding guys late in the down when guys would uncover, like, you see those plays deeper and deeper into the play from him creatively, that there's a lot to like there. And I think that. And you know, people have really had a problem with Dan Orlofsky talking about how Ty Simpson was his number one quarterback in this class. If you actually listen to Dan's argument, a lot of the tenets of his argument do make sense. And one of them is Ty was asked to do more stuff in out Alabama that you were going to be asked to do in an NFL offense. Then Fernando Mendoza was asked to do in Indiana that feels just objectively correct to me. Like the the amount of RPOs at Alabama's offense was not nearly at the same rate as it was in Indiana's offense. And if you go watch Ty Simpson camera, which game it was might have been the Vandy game. Early in the Vandy game, which was early in the season, he was playing well. He comes back to like a backside in breaker, like on time in rhythm, hits it. There's a decent amount of that on his tape. There's a decent amount of him sweeping the board, going from right to left, progressing to open receivers on the backside of concepts. Like he can do some of that stuff. And so to me it is what he can do in the boot game because he's going to be asked to do a lot of that. What he did with some of those more like pure progression, front to back concepts and the creativity and plus and the two other things, aggressiveness. Like you said, the amount of hole shots he was willing to take when they were available to him, he will take those, he's ripping those when they're available to him. And the last thing he is a decent athlete. Like he can take off, he can create with his legs. And so those kind of five pillars I do think are enough to make him like a compelling quarterback prospect. But I don't know if at 23 years old with limited physical tools there are enough wow plays on the tape to justify the amount of what plays on the tape, if that makes sense. Like I, I, I just am not sure that ratio is in your favor to take a guy like this in the back half of the first round.

[Derek Classen]

That's so spot on because to me, like if you watch his three best plays a game, he looks like the first overall pick. Like, like his three best plays are incredible. Like some of the outside of the pocket stuff he will rip. Some of those hole shots like his handful of best plays in a game look great. There's just a lot more up and down in between those moments. And again some of it is the is the decision making and I think a lot of it too is like I mentioned, it's the accuracy drain for a couple of reasons. One, even when he's on time, like I said, you, you get some of the Baker Mayfield ah, he's straining and he'll just miss a throw. And then there is also a lot of when he's under duress, I think you really start to see it fade away from him. And that's the biggest every time when

[Robert Mays]

it's not all Lined up, there are some sprays. And when he gets a little bit spooked, that's where you see some of the accuracy. And that's part of what I struggle with here, is that the hot there is like a ceiling to his game because he is creative and he is a decent athlete, but it's not a super, super high ceiling. He's still a smaller prospect. He still doesn't have a huge arm, even if he has enough arm. And if you're going to be that sort of guy, if you're going to be 6, 1, 2, 10 and not be a crazy good athlete, you need to be like super clean to be a high level quarterback in the NFL. And he's just not that. And part of it might be he started 15 games in college. Okay, but why, but why? And he's 23. And so I think the best argument for him is that he, you might clean up some of that stuff if he got a chance to sit for a little bit. But then if he's sitting for a little bit, we're Talking about a 23 year old prospect that doesn't have a super high ceiling when it comes to the tools. And so that's why I struggle with it where it's like, well, if he's going to need to sit when he gets into the NFL and the ceiling isn't even that high anyway, what is this? And I don't even, I don't think that it, you necessarily have to land on a bad answer. And I do want to talk about a couple of the landing spots or situations that I do think could work out. But those are kind of the different factors that I'm weighing when I'm thinking about him.

[Derek Classen]

Yeah, that, that is exactly where I'm at too. Where it's just against. Too many parts of his profile don't make sense. And where I come back to of him not being a super clean prospect, but being a little bit of an older prospect. Obviously Kenny Pickett played a lot more in college, so it was even more concerning. But Kenny Pickett, the whole thing when he came out was like, okay, he checks the boxes for arm talent and athleticism. And then I think there was this idea that because he was an older prospect, that he was like a clean guy, clean processor, he was productive, all that stuff. And you watch him and it's like, that's not really true.

[Robert Mays]

So skittish in the pocket. The idea that he was like some clean prospect is hilarious.

[Derek Classen]

Exactly. And I think Ty Simpson's a better prospect than that to be clear. But there is a little bit of that same element to it where it's like you're 23 and it just feels like this should be a little bit more buttoned up than I want it to. One, one point I wanted to put on this for the accuracy thing before we kind of move on to like fit and stuff like that. Sports Info Solutions does like really, really good draft numbers stuff and they have data going back the past, I think from the 2023 class. And so according to them they have like an accuracy plus minus. Every other first round quarterback in the past three classes had an accuracy plus minus of at least 4%. Like plus 4%. Except for Anthony Richardson who is important, who obviously he has not turned out but he was at least like a freak athlete so you could at least understand it. Every other guy was at 4% or higher. Simpson is at 1%. And even some of the guys that ended up on the fringe the were higher than that. Will Levis was at 3%, Shuck is at 4% and so that's not like a crazy big difference. But it's just again if you're having to also climb over all these other factors with him and he doesn't even clear that bar accuracy wise, it's just kind of hard to get there.

[Robert Mays]

So the question that I asked at the beginning, I, I kind of backdoored into it being a conversation that was more interesting than I expected because my thought was more so like Izzy were taken in the first round more as like a. Not in a. I wasn't really considering the all that went into that like consideration. But now as I've thought more about it, I actually do think it plays. It makes it even a better discussion because the idea of him being a back half of the first round player, if that's the case, then you have a team probably that is coming back up to draft him because they're like we can't leave this draft without a quarterback and that quarterback has to be Ty Simpson. That's what the Giants were last year. The Giants couldn't leave that draft without a quarterback. And so I understand coming back up for Jackson Dart. I don't think there is a team in this draft that should have that mindset when it comes to Ty Simpson.

[Derek Classen]

I don't really think that there is.

[Robert Mays]

Who would it be?

[Derek Classen]

I mean like if the Cardinals did want some sort of young guy in there, like maybe if the Jet. But like I don't think the jets or the Cardinals should really be doing that.

[Robert Mays]

They can wait.

[Derek Classen]

Yes. And especially the jets can wait with all the picks that they have.

[Robert Mays]

And you, you never know. Right. Like maybe you're not going to be in a position to draft that guy again. But I don't think he's compelling enough that you should be worried about that. Where it's like if we don't get Ty Simpson in this draft and maybe we don't pick in the top five next year, we'll figure it out.

[Derek Classen]

Exactly. But he's not a good enough quarterback prospect for me to be scared if I miss him. And again, maybe he can work out like there are paths, but it's just he's not quite up to that level. And even again last year, I don't love, I didn't love Jackson Dart as a prospect. I said that a lot. And I'm still not even sure he's going to be that good. But he was like physically even more impressive than I think that like absolutely. He was bigger, like better runner, like arm was better. It's just, it's hard for me to get there with Simpson, especially considering the teams that would do it.

[Robert Mays]

So that's the part of it that I think is really important. I don't if he's one of those guys, let's say Arizona's at 34, so they might just be able to stick at 34. But let's say they get skittish or jumpy and they think that somebody's going to come up and they trade with trying to figure out the right team. I don't know what's you say it's Buffalo because Buffalo doesn't have a second round pick. They want to pick up picks, they trade with Buffalo, they come to 26. I think him landing in a situation with an unproven coaching staff in a bad organization, that to me would be like the scariest possible outcome for somebody like this. Because I do think that the floor is pretty low based on what he is as a prospect. And so I don't want a team operating with that mindset to end up with Ty Simpson because I don't think that's the place where he should go. If he went and was like kind of a contingency future plan for another. If he went and the team obviously, like people are going to make fun of us for continuing to throw people on this team. But like if the Rams took him at 61, I'm fine with that. Yeah, I think that's like the right thing.

[Derek Classen]

That's the range where he should go like 45 to like 70. In my mind, the quarterback prospect that he is between the film, the. You know, all the other stuff about his profile, that's someone you take between 45 and 70. And so if that's where he goes to the Rams or whoever other team it's going to be, that makes a ton of sense to me.

[Robert Mays]

If Pittsburgh took him to 53, that's. That's fine.

[Derek Classen]

Totally makes sense because that. That's a situation that's good enough that he could be fine. Like the Cardinals are not. I'm sorry.

[Robert Mays]

You know, what a team I was actually thinking about and I have no idea if they'd be interested in this. They probably not considering what they did this off season. But a team that I was like, I actually think this might be a reasonable off ramp. You could sit him for this year and then you could transition to. It would be like Atlanta taking him at 48.

[Derek Classen]

I wouldn't hate that. Like that. That actually does make a lot of sense.

[Robert Mays]

They're just out on pegs and they're like, there's. He may be a guy on a depth chart right now, but we cannot rely on him anymore. This almost feels like. And that's kind of what Simpson. That's what he presents to me, is that I do think he's a worthwhile gamble in the second round because I do think that in the same way that Jalen Hurts was. He can be like an exit ramp for a team that needs one, whether because they've swung and missed on a quarterback or they need a succession plan at quarterback. But I think it has to happen in the right environment on the right timeline. And I think being drafted in the second round allows those two things to come together in a way that being drafted 23rd may not.

[Derek Classen]

It. It gets you in a perfect spot where it's like, we took you in the second round, so we will start you at some point, but it probably won't be immediate. And if you're not the guy, like, everyone's kind of just like, ah, it is what it is. Like, that's what the Saints did last year with Tyler Schuck kind of. And like, I think they're in like, similar, ish boats in terms of like, where I would have graded them, obviously, shuck, like bigger, bigger guy, all that stuff. And so I think you can look past some of the other deficiencies that way. But, like, it's kind of like in that similar idea for what they would want to be doing.

[Robert Mays]

And I agree with that. And that's kind of Why? I was thinking about the difference of trading up for a guy in the first round and letting a guy fall to you in the second round. If you let a guy fall to you in the second round, it's just a different, it's a different risk appetite. You're exten, you're leveraging yourself in a different way. You're not giving up anything. You're just going through the process where it's like, at this point, this player is worth it to us. Like he fell to us in this moment and that where we're going to take him and what we expect out of him with that we're worth, this is worth doing. And I think that's exactly what Tyler Schuck was last year, and I think that's what Ty Simpson should be for one of these teams this year. So we, we said the Rams, I, I said my weird kind of like sideways take is Atlanta. Any of the other teams in the second round where it's like, okay, if they took Ty Simpson, I, I think I'd have some enthusiasm for this.

[Derek Classen]

I think second round is tough. There are a few where if he got to the third, it would be a little bit more interesting. I mean, second round for Pittsburgh I think would totally be fine. Third round, I'm thinking teams like if, if he gets to the third, you know, pick 75 or whatever. A team like Dallas kind of makes a lot of sense to me. In a similar way, it's a backup though. It's like, but like what, how much

[Robert Mays]

different than what we're talking about?

[Derek Classen]

I mean, kind of. Yeah, but like that's kind of the player I think that he is where, you know what I mean? And so I, I, I think, I still think it's more teams like that, um, like Minnesota would be weird because like, obviously they're don't know what they're necessarily doing at quarterback long term, but I just don't think that they should do that. Like, it's a lot of, There are not that many situations to me where I feel like he makes sense in that way.

[Robert Mays]

The Rams to me is the one that makes the most sense because I

[Derek Classen]

do think that he can the quickest off ramp also.

[Robert Mays]

And, but, but that's, when you're, when you are in this position the Rams are in, if you're not going to make like a huge overture with. And this year was kind of strange in that they did have the two first round picks, but there weren't quarterbacks, there weren't enough quarterbacks where you could maneuver to find one. And so if you're never going to be in a position to do that, and it's likely the Rams won't be, you're going to have to get creative in what that off ramp is going to look like. And I do think there is enough to work with with him, specifically in that sort of offense where I think that he would be a worthwhile gamble with that pick. Because I do think that the bar we're talking about here is is he a real solution with the right development, with the right time? Is he a real solution and a real answer for you at some point? And I think with a team like the Rams, the answer to that would be yes. And that's why to me, he would be worth taking in that scenario.

[Derek Classen]

I mean, to bring it all the way back. You know who looked good for a few games when his career was dead in Los Angeles? Baker Mayfield. And I think if he's a similar type of player like you could kind of make it work.

[Robert Mays]

All right, we're going to take one more quick break and then come back with our last question of the three.

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[Robert Mays]

All right, question number three among the rest of the quarterbacks in this draft, the guy's likely to be taken outside of the top 50 picks. Who would you bet on being a capable NFL starter at some point during their rookie contract.

[Derek Classen]

For me, it's pretty comfortably Garrett Nussmeier. And I think he's a lot closer to. I have him closer to Simpson than a lot of other people. I. I think given the right scenario, I might prefer him to Simpson. I just think that there's. There's some more stuff that I like to his game. Even if Simpson's ceiling is maybe a little higher just because of the arm talent, but Nussmeier is. There are some stuff that I would normally not love. Like, he's also undersized. He was also banged up the way that Ty Simpson was this year. The arm is, like, not great, but he just does a lot of, like, high floor. Kind of does stuff that I like. I think he's a really accurate passer. I think he does a good job of all three levels being able to add touch where he needs to. I think he actually moves around pretty well, kind of similar to Simpson, where my comp for him, like, how he moves is actually very similar to, like Brock Purdy, where he's not necessarily like a super fast straight line runner, but he's so quick and like flexible around the pocket that I think that he can get himself out of some jams. And then the thing that I love most about him, that dude will take some shots like him and Mendoza in this class will just stand there, take one to the chest, and move on to the next play. And it's really, really impressive. And so again, all that stuff, I think the ceiling is limited, but could he be in the best circumstances, like a Brock Purdy, like, middle of the pack quarterback who gets helped a little bit by some of the. The surroundings around him. Like, I can see an outcome like that.

[Robert Mays]

Okay, so here's my comparison. Here's the player that Garrett Nussmeier reminded me of when I was watching. It wasn't one player. You said Brock Purdy. To me, I think that Garrett Nussmeier is the perfect middle point between Brock Purdy and Jimmy Garoppolo.

[Derek Classen]

Oh, okay. Actually, I don't hate this.

[Robert Mays]

He's just halfway between those two players.

[Derek Classen]

He kind of does because he's. He's. Brock Purdy is, like, quicker to go out and like, actually do stuff and create. And I think there's a little bit of creativity to nuss Meyer, but it's not quite to the same level as a guy like Brock Purdy. But it's definitely more than Jimmy Garoppolo. But like, Garoppolo like, Jimmy would stand in there and take a hit and fire the dig route, and Garrett Nussmeier will stand in there and fire that dig route.

[Robert Mays]

That's exactly what it is. And even, like, the little kind of sidearm flip that they have, he reminds me of the way that Jimmy throws as a thrower. The way he's able to access the middle of the field reminds me of a lot of the ways that Jimmy played. But he's a little bit quicker. And the thing that brings him halfway between those guys toward the Brock Purdy pole is that he's more aggressive. He's willing to push the ball in the same way that Brock Purdy is. And so I, I. And the last thing his, like, bonehead moments are when he gets.

[Derek Classen]

They're so pretty ish.

[Robert Mays]

But it's almost like Jimmy, like Jimmy in those. When Jimmy would throw those, like, robber interceptions.

[Derek Classen]

Oh, yeah.

[Robert Mays]

Where it's like, I think I'm getting one thing and then I got another thing, and I have trouble, like, waiting in waiting between that. That's actually. That shows up with Nussmeier. And so I truly do think that he has, like, half of Brock's traits and half of Jimmy's traits, and you just shove them together. And why I also think this works is that in that offense, I think he's viable. I think he absolutely would be viable in that sort of offense. I think that there is enough to him where you could see him being a capable starter in those sorts of circumstances.

[Derek Classen]

I do, too. I was thinking the Brock Purdy for the boneheaded moments, because I feel like once a game he just, like, turns around and, like, dead sprints backwards, which is a thing that Brock Purdy will do. All right.

[Robert Mays]

Even more perfect. He has some of the Brock Purdy bonehead moments and then some of the Jimmy ones. They're just combined together.

[Derek Classen]

Exactly. And the Jimmy, once again, they're perfect. Like, I think Nussmeier is chalkboard smart, which Jimmy was also chalkboard smart. And then sometimes when the bullets are flying and a safety rotates, the way that he doesn't think he throws a shallow route, he shouldn't. And he gets his receiver's head taken off. Just certain stuff like that. That can be a little bit frustrating with him. The Garoppolo one is good, too, because Jimmy, his arm was fine, but he was a very smooth thrower, and it was very quick, and it all just, like, flowed really well. And Nussmeier, to me, is similar, where it's like the Arm isn't really overwhelming. Sometimes he loses a little bit outside the numbers, but it's all so smooth. It's all just so flowy. He can throw from all these different platforms. And so, so it's actually a pretty good. Like he is somewhere in like a weird amalgamation of those two players.

[Robert Mays]

Like, if you think about it, we have. It's a good experiment because we have the Niners offense with Jimmy and then we have the Niners offense with Purdy and we've gotten to see what the differences in those things are. And I think the Niners offense with Garrett Nussmeier and this is in the plus outcomes, right? Like, Jimmy Grapple was a functional NFL starter for very good offenses. Even if we may take some issue with playstyle, what happened with Jimmy since the Raiders contract, all of that stuff is fair. But I think this would be the positive outcome for Garrett Nussmeier. I do think that the positive outcome of Garrett Nussmeier would be a version of the Niners offense that landed somewhere between the Jimmy version and the Brock Brady version.

[Derek Classen]

It really would be. And that is again, that's not like a special starting quarterback, but if you draft, I mean that a quarterback like that is probably like, you know, mid teens, mid, mid to high teens in terms of like actual quarterback production. If you get that in the third round, like, like you're paying nothing to, to be able to get that guy. That. That's probably pretty good value to me. And I think even I, I think his lower end outcomes are not starting quarterback, but like pretty good backup.

[Robert Mays]

Yes.

[Derek Classen]

Like, I, like, I don't feel like the floor is just like, oh my God, if, if he stinks, he just can't play it all and we ought to cut him. I, I just don't think the floor is that low.

[Robert Mays]

I think he'll be a backup in the league for a really long time. I, he. He just seems like that kind of guy. The spot that to me makes the most sense. And they might not do this just because they are operating with fewer picks. Him going to green bay at 84, it just totally tracks to me. They do not have like a quality starting, quality backup on the team anymore with Malik Willis gone. I think that that's pretty rich for a backup quarterback. But I, to me, I think that that's probably where he should go. And I think it's worth investing in your backup quarterback and developing him in that system and like him potentially being a guy that if he were to get a little bit of spot duty at some point, being a player that you could flip after seeing him in that offense for a little while, like, that's the one I keep coming back to with him specifically.

[Derek Classen]

I think that's a really, really good one. And then again, not to keep doing the bit, but like, if he's there at 93 for the Rams, like, obviously the Shanahan and McVeigh offenses are a little bit different, but like, I do think that there's enough overlap there that like, he could be good there. And then there's a couple other teams that like, there are some that I think he would be like a really good backup for this team, but they can't afford to spend a pick like that. Like I think, like Cincinnati, like that that is a perfect spot for him, where I do think that he could be a good backup there. They're just not really in a position where they can spend that amount of capital on a backup quarterback.

[Robert Mays]

So I honestly disagree. Really legitimate. I legitimately think that him at 72 to Cincinnati. When you think about how often Burrow has been banged up and how desperate they've had to be in some of those moments when he was banged up, I don't think that's crazy.

[Derek Classen]

It's. Yeah. At 72, like, again, I think I'm so just in the mode of like, their defense is so bad, they got to fix it. But again, if Joe Burrow is going to miss five, six games a year, you can't be going back to the 40 something year old. Joe Flacco, Jake Browning, all that. Like we, we can't really be doing that anymore. If they could like find a guy that they felt good about to land on for a few years, that would be good. Again, if Pittsburgh wanted to do it, I think that that makes a lot of sense for them. This is maybe like a good, like Philly in the third round. If they want to do like the Jalen hurt, like try the Jalen Hurts type thing again.

[Robert Mays]

I, I was about to. I was actually gonna go back to Ty Simpson because my spiciest one is ty Simpson going 54th to the Eagles.

[Derek Classen]

Isn't that what it hurts? Go like 52, like almost that exact same range. It was like literally almost to the. To the dot.

[Robert Mays]

Don't think I wasn't looking up how tradable Jalen hurts. His contract is starting next summer. Don't think I already haven't started looking at that based on the way he's played and also just all the smoke today.

[Derek Classen]

There was a story today.

[Robert Mays]

Yes, you Guys, read that ESPN story. I'll say this, and I think Nate did a good job of, like, tweeting about this in the right way. The idea that anything in that story, when it comes to why the offense is structured the way that it's structured and what some of the limitations are would be surprising. If you've watched the last three years of Eagles football ball is like, none of it is surprising. Like, it's exactly what you would expect based on how the offense has looked. And so if there is, like, real frustration with what that looks like and if they bring in a new offensive coordinator and they're trying to do some different things and it doesn't work, like, are we at a place where they, as a team that has enjoyed the benefits of a quarterback off ramp in the past, are willing to take a chance at somebody to see if they can have an, like, somebody for the future?

[Derek Classen]

I mean, like, I think maybe. I just don't think that. That it's that crazy. I'm trying to think if there was one other one that I think is actually decent because I think this team is in a really weird spot and I think they have a GM that would be willing to not draft for right now, even if it feels like the coaching staff needs right now. If he's there at 77 for Tampa Bay, I don't think that that's that bad of an idea because he would be a pretty good backup for them. And there's like, if they want to off ramp from Baker in a year or two. Potentially for what year of his contract? Yeah, exactly. Like, it's a good. I really think that, like, that is a decent spot for him. If. If we're trying to find a team that is, like, trying to take the swing of like, hey, maybe we can just find a cheap, cheap starting quarterback here.

[Robert Mays]

Yeah. I mean, they're supposedly negotiating a new deal for Baker, but this is the final year of Baker's contract, so I absolutely think that's worth throwing out there. I don't. The other thing about the Eagles is, like, I don't know what's happening with, like, the Tanner McKee thing, but, like, he's in the final year of his

[Derek Classen]

deal, so, I mean, they always have four on the roster anyway. Who cares? Yeah. I don't know. It's.

[Robert Mays]

I understand that it's like a spicy thought, but the idea of, like, the Eagles being in the quarterback market this year, I don't know.

[Derek Classen]

I. I don't think.

[Robert Mays]

I don't think it's that crazy. They can either trade or cut Jalen hurt. They would, they would trade him. But if they trade Jalen hurts even before June 1st next year, it's only like a $2 million hit more than what his, his cap hit would be anyway. Like, it's, it's not like he's untradeable like the AJ Brown would be before June 1st. So something to think about last thing here. Let's add a bonus question one rung down from these guys. These guys that I think are worth taking on the first two days of the draft. And in your mind, Nuss Meyer is who is the other quarterback in this class that you might take a little bit of a swing on that you could get a little bit later?

[Derek Classen]

I, I kind of think there's something there with Carson Beck a little bit. And I think he, Carson Beck, he. What I want to say about him is I think he suffers a little bit from like a perception problem where obviously in 2023, pretty good year with Georgia. Obviously he's playing with Brock Bowers and Darnell Washington and all those guys. He looks good. People think he's going to be a first round pick, plays for them in 2024. Again, it does not look very good. He gets hurt at the end of the year, his star falls, he comes back to Miami and he doesn't necessarily look like a first round pick. Like, I'm not, certainly not vouching for him to be that. But he played well enough for this team to get to the national championship and he played pretty well. Like, I think his timing is, his accuracy is not great, but like good enough for a potential top 100 pick. I think he is aggressive. He's willing enough to stand in the pocket, even if I don't think it's quite as impressive as like a Nussmeier or Mendoza or guys like that. And then actually I was kind of surprised by how much bigger and stronger he looked than when he was at Georgia. Like when he was at Georgia in 2023, he looked kind of like Jared Goff, where he's a little bit skinnier, you know, like the 6:4, like 2:12ish build. But he actually got up to like 230 by the time he at Miami. And like you saw that, I think even in his ability to drive the ball, you saw a little bit more velocity. So this is still a guy that, I think his deep ball, even though he gets good velocity over the middle, he doesn't get good arc down the field. So that's going to be a Little bit of a struggle for you. I think he's a decent processor, but not like a bonafide starter type of guy. And then I do think at the end of the games he made a lot of like boneheaded, kind of through the game away plays, which those all disqualify him, I think, from being like a top 50. That's a starter pick. Does it disqualify him from being like pick 90 and being like a pretty good backup for you? I don't really think so.

[Robert Mays]

What do you think about him and Todd Monk and1:07 to Cleveland?

[Derek Classen]

Do it. Do it. Cause that's who got it to Georgia and it's like, yeah, it's. I kind of like it. I really do like that fit. And that's their best option to get a quarterback in this class. Like, they shouldn't be like the. They're just not in a position where the team's good enough to try first round, second round, any of that. But if you could get a guy you're familiar with at pick one, oh, seven, why wouldn't you try it?

[Robert Mays]

Yeah, I mean, they're in a spot where it behooves you to just keep taking dart throws. You know, I know for all the talk about Deshaun Watson being their starter this year, it's like we can't be doing that. They're in a position where it's worth it to keep taking dart throws. Anything else? Anything else you want to clear up about your thoughts about the 2026 quarterback class?

[Derek Classen]

No, I think, I think that's kind of it. I think we really covered it again, I think with Mendoza, I would behoove people to really look at his profile and realize how, how few guys actually look like that, especially like recently in terms of like, you know, first overall picks and stuff. But other than that, no, it's. That's kind of it for the guys that I think are truly interesting and unlike quality prospects in this class.

[Robert Mays]

The last thing I'll say about Mendoza is we, we kind of ran through what I think some of the shortcomings or concerns are. I don't mean to hand wave those away. I actually do think that those are real enough that they could impede him being like a top level starter in the league. Like the idea that again, he gets a little bit panicky in the pocket when he's asked to do like more big boy NFL things consistently. How does that translate? I do have faith in his ability to overcome or work through those things, but I don't think that they should be blemishes or you know, concerns maybe that we just hand wave away and ignore. Like, I do think they're worth taking into consideration. When you think about him holistically as a pro, as a prospect, that's. That's the last thing I'll say. Like, I think it's. Our discussion was very glowing and I think that for a reason, because I do think he's more appealing than a lot of people might based on how we've talked about him. But I don't think that he is some like perfect, you know, blemish free player by any stretch of the imagination.

[Derek Classen]

I agree. Like, he's. Again, I think he's a really good quarterback prospect. He's not in the same tier that like Caleb Williams or Drake May was to me. I don't think he's quite up in that. Obviously not like Andrew Luck or anything like that. There's. There is a world to me where it doesn't work out. I still think to me the. The world where it doesn't work out is like Minnesota Sam Darnold, which not the best if that's your first overall pick. But that's not the worst outcome for things either.

[Robert Mays]

I think he's a really good bet to make with the first overall pick. And I think that Raiders fans should be excited that they happen to stumble into the first overall pick in this draft when there's only one quarterback. And I think that quarter there's kind of only one quarterback. There's only one quarterback. I would want to walk into the back half of this season being like, that guy's my starter. There's only one quarterback in this draft where I would want to relying on that guy very early to be the future of my franchise. Even if I think there are pathways to Ty Simpson. And so the Raiders getting the number one pick in a draft like that worked out okay.

[Derek Classen]

All right.

[Robert Mays]

That is all we've got for today. Me, you and Dave Hellman are going to be sitting here tomorrow going through the pass catchers in this class. The receivers very much looking forward to that. I did a couple of them for. Are we talking about the Beast breakdowns?

[Derek Classen]

Yeah, why not? We can talk about them. We got a few already. Like totally done. Let the people know.

[Robert Mays]

So this year for the first time, we are actually incorporating video into the Beast. So when you go click on the Beast when it comes out, which will be, I don't know, in the next week or so here, right. April 8th and shout out Dane for

[Derek Classen]

letting us get our grubby hands on his beautiful product.

[Robert Mays]

April 8th. Next Wednesday the Beast will be out. And again, thank you to Dane for letting us infiltrate the beautiful stuff that he's working on that we will have I think upwards of 30 like all 32 top. Like the first 32 prospects in the draft. Right?

[Derek Classen]

First 32 prospects in the beast. Yes. We'll have these 2ish minute video breakdowns.

[Robert Mays]

2ish minute video breakdowns for every single one of those first 32 guys, which we've never done before. Very excited about that. Just again, trying to do anything we can to make what Dane creates into an even cooler kind of compelling digital project product as we've made into that over the last couple years. But I did a few of them and I did a couple of the receivers and it there, there's some fun players. Like there are no perfect guys but I'm like excited to talk about Casey Concepcion tomorrow. Like there, there are guys in this draft that I'm like I with those guys. I'm excited about this Concepcion.

[Derek Classen]

Listen, I said it on, on our mailbag. I was like I like him more than even Levin. Like Concepcion's a really good player.

[Robert Mays]

Yeah, there are guys that I'm really pumped to talk about tomorrow. So we will dig into the receivers tomorrow. Looking forward to that. For now, that's all we got. Appreciate you guys listening. We'll talk to you very soon. Thanks for tuning in. Make sure to hit that subscribe or follow button so you never miss an episode. If you enjoyed what you heard, please like comment and leave a rating. We'll see you next time.

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[Derek Classen]

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[Robert Mays]

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