The Athletic Football Show: Wild Card Saturday Preview – Rams-Panthers & Packers-Bears

Date: January 9, 2026
Host: Robert Mays
Co-host: Derek Brown
Main Theme:
A comprehensive breakdown of the Saturday Wild Card games: Rams at Panthers and Packers at Bears, exploring how each team arrived here, key matchups, and what to watch for in both contests.

Episode Overview

This episode is the first of a two-part Wild Card Weekend preview, focusing specifically on the Saturday matchups. Robert Mays and Derek Brown (with Dave Helman absent) dig into both games' major narratives, how each team made the playoffs, and the Xs and Os that could define each outcome. The tone is considered and conversational, but jammed with tactical insight and big-picture thinking.

Segment 1: Rams at Panthers (01:55–20:07)

Setting the Table – How Did These Teams Get Here?

• Panthers’ Unlikely Playoff Berth

  • Panthers as an “almost shouldn’t be here” team: an up-and-down season, benefiting from fortunate circumstances late in the year, with major improvement on defense and a run-heavy offensive identity.
  • Young roster and first-year head coach gain invaluable playoff experience, despite low outside expectations.
    • Quote: “It’s nice for a young team for a first time head coach to get some playoff experience against a team and a coaching staff that has done it as much as anyone over the last decade in the Rams.” (Derek Brown, 04:57)

• Rams’ Slide from Contenders to Wild Card

  • Rams were seen as top Super Bowl contenders most of the season, leading the league in offensive output and strong defensive play before stumbling in the final month (bad losses to Atlanta, Seattle).
  • Rams now have to play on the road; focus on what needs to be rekindled for a deeper playoff run.

Key Discussion Points & Matchups

• Rams Strengths and What to Watch

  • Offense expected to be fine with Davante Adams returning from injury; Puka Nacua’s major contributions continue.
  • On defense, the front seven’s ability to “dictate games” is key. Early-season dominance tailed off, including a poor earlier game vs. Panthers—can they regain that level?
  • Quote: “Defensively... When [the Rams] were one of the better defenses in the league... it was because their front was able to dictate every game... But I think with the run defense having a couple of struggles... I would like to see the front kind of buckle up a little bit more.” (Derek Brown, 06:17)

• Returning Key Players

  • Davante Adams (WR) and Quinton Lake (DB) both now active; Lake particularly valuable in giving defensive versatility and run-force ability (07:13–08:19).

• Previous Meeting: Why the Panthers Won (and Why It’s Unlikely Again)

  • Panthers already beat the Rams this season, but did so mostly through wild swings/variance: a pick-six, red-zone interception, two fourth-down TD bombs.
  • Rams had 70% rushing success rate (their best of the season), moved the ball at will except for a few pivotal mistakes.
  • Quote: “If you play it ten times the Rams likely win nine of them. And that’s why it’s a ten and a half point spread.” (Robert Mays, 09:16)
  • Staffords’ unusually bad performance (pick-six, multiple misses in rain) likely an outlier.

What Could Change the Outcome? — “Narrow Paths” for the Panthers

• If the Panthers Win, How?

  • Heavy reliance on run game to control possession and avoid high-volume passing (“condense the game”).
  • Large, physical WRs on the outside could exploit the Rams’ secondary again, but lightning might not strike twice.
  • Return of Robert Hunt on the O-line may bolster their already imposing run-blocking unit (13:00–14:10).

• If the Rams Win, How?

  • Clean up red-zone mistakes; avoid self-inflicted turnovers.
  • Dominate up front, as in first meeting—Panthers’ run D is strong in spots but susceptible to under-center, power run schemes (15:16–16:15).
  • Quote: “If they want to win this game, that’s a situation where Derrick Brown [Panthers DT] has to take over the game in the middle of that defense.” (Robert Mays, 15:16)
  • Panthers’ run D elite against play-action deep shots (allowing only 25% completion rate on such looks, the lowest mark in the Next Gen era). Rams may counter with more 13 personnel (3 TEs), try to dislodge secondary defenders (17:16–19:22).

Summary

Outlook:
Rams are a heavy favorite and rightfully so; need disciplined offense and front-seven dominance. Panthers must rely on ball control, run-game, and/or variance. Both hosts agree: the happy-to-be-here Panthers could make things weird, but the Rams are much likelier to advance.

Segment 2: Packers at Bears (23:57–44:35)

Setting the Table – Historical and Emotional Weight

• Massive Stakes for Both Sides
  • For Bears fans, this is arguably the most emotionally charged matchup since the 2010 NFC Championship—layers of rivalry, playoff drought, hope for “exorcising demons.”
    • Quote: “Playing the Packers in this sort of game is like the widest range of emotional outcomes you could possibly have for any playoff opponent if you’re a Bears fan.” (Robert Mays, 24:08)
  • For Packers, another chance at postseason heartbreak or glory; higher expectations place more pressure on Matt LaFleur.

How Did These Teams Arrive Here?

• Bears: Luck, Progress, and Arrival

  • Early-season wins propped up by turnover luck; underlying play was average.
  • Post-bye offensive surge—most efficient rushing attack in the NFL, tangible progress from rookie QB Caleb Williams and young skill players.
  • Flashes of high-level offense held back by small errors ("so close")—the hosts repeatedly point out how close the Bears are to being a truly dangerous playoff team.
    • Quote: “They are so close. And I don’t know if they get there in this game... some of those four or five moments where they’re just a tick off ultimately are going to dictate the game.” (Robert Mays, 32:36)

• Packers: Unlucky, Then Unsteady

  • Early on, a “really good team that was unlucky,” now faltering as defense and run game underperform (28:45–29:13).
  • Defensive injuries have taken a toll; back seven’s tackling and run fits have been issues, especially in their last meeting with the Bears.

Matchup Deep Dive

When the Bears Have the Ball

• Offensive Identity
  • The Bears’ run game is humming, thanks in part to horizontal movement (pre-snap motions, jet sweeps, creative formation shifts) impacting slow-reacting Packer linebackers.
  • Execution errors (missed assignments, untimely penalties) kept them from breaking through entirely in the last matchup—if those are corrected, a “huge game” is possible.
• Passing Game
  • Caleb Williams’ calibration against pressure will be tested—Packers blitzed 43% of dropbacks in their previous meeting, causing hurried decisions.
  • Quote: “His play speed is just not what it needs to be all the time... sometimes those four or five moments where they’re just a tick off ultimately are going to dictate the game.” (Robert Mays, 32:36 and context after)
  • Bears missing two starting WRs in prior loss, but are healthy now; both teams almost at full strength entering this game.

When the Packers Have the Ball

• Run or Explode: Pick Your Poison for the Bears
  • Bears’ defense struggles to generate pressure or cover one-on-one—if they play man or blitz, Jordan Love can exploit them; if they play soft zones, Packers are happy to run constantly at high efficiency.
  • Quote: “They [the Bears] are a terrible man blitz team… They never get home… The numbers back that up.” (Robert Mays, 39:41)
• Packers’ Red Zone “Stall Outs”
  • Packers often settle for field goals, not touchdowns; Bears need a couple red zone stops (or turnovers) to open a window for the upset (43:00–43:39).

“Limit the Possessions” Game & Possible Outcomes

• Both Teams Likely to Run, Grind the Clock

  • With both offenses likely to move the ball on the ground, possessions should shrink (6–8 total per team).
  • In a low-possession game, a handful of stops or red zone holds could swing things; a higher possession/track-meet game likely tilts to the Packers.

• Prediction and Gut Feel

  • High volatility and genuinely uncertain outcome—could see a high-scoring, back-and-forth affair despite low previous scores.
  • Chance of snow, but unlikely to suppress scoring much—both QBs (Caleb Williams, Jordan Love) unaffected by elements (44:03–44:35).

Notable Quotes

• Robert Mays (On emotional stakes for Bears fans):
  “This to me, playing the Packers in this sort of game is like the widest range of emotional outcomes you could possibly have for any playoff opponent if you're a Bears fan.” (24:08)
• Derek Brown (On the Rams’ defense):
  “When they were one of the better defenses in the league... it was because their front was able to dictate every game.” (06:17)
• Robert Mays (On the Panthers’ previous win over Rams):
  “If you play it ten times the Rams likely win nine of them. And that's why it's a ten and a half point spread.” (09:16)
• Robert Mays (On Bears' offensive progress):
  “They are so close. And I don’t know if they get there in this game... sometimes those four or five moments where they're just a tick off ultimately are going to dictate the game.” (32:36)
• Derek Brown (On potential for a shootout):
  “Feels like both teams have been like boiling to something where like we could get like a 35, 38 type of game.” (43:55)

Key Timestamps

• 01:55 — Wild Card Saturday preview kickoff; structure of podcast explained.
• 03:30 — Setting up Panthers’ season narrative and unlikely playoff berth.
• 06:17 — What can put the Rams back on track; defensive front's importance.
• 09:16 — Discussion of previous Panthers-Rams matchup and why it’s misleading.
• 13:00 — How the Panthers could win: Run game, O-line health, variance.
• 15:16 — What the Panthers’ defense must do; focus on stuffing the Rams’ run game.
• 17:16 — Panthers’ excellence defending under-center play action; Rams’ likely adjustments with 13 personnel.
• 23:57 — Packers-Bears emotional stakes and rivalry context begins.
• 28:45 — Contrasting paths for Bears (from lucky to good) and Packers (from unlucky to unsteady).
• 32:36 — Bears' offensive progress and what’s just missing.
• 35:18 — How the Bears’ run game attacks the Packers; horizontal movement, OL performance.
• 39:41 — Bears’ issues vs. man blitz; Packers’ answers against any style of D.
• 43:00 — Red zone defense, limiting possessions, how things could actually favor the underdog Bears.
• 44:03 — Weather talk, scoring outlook, and emotional impact on the hosts.

Final Takeaways

• Rams vs. Panthers: Lopsided on paper. Panthers may need another miracle. Rams should dominate with offensive firepower and better execution, but quirky elements (run game variance, Panthers’ playoff emotion, defensive adjustments) bear watching.
• Bears vs. Packers: A game loaded with historical resonance and “what-if” narrative. Both offenses are positioned for big nights if minor flaws (execution, pass protection) are ironed out. Defensive stops and red-zone discipline—rather than raw talent—could decide which team advances.

Next up: Sunday and Monday Wild Card previews, available now in the same podcast feed.