The Athletic Football Show: Wild Card Sunday and Monday Preview (Jan 9, 2026)

Hosts: Robert Mays & Derek Classen
Key games: Bills at Jaguars, 49ers at Eagles, Chargers at Patriots, Texans at Steelers

Episode Overview

Robert Mays and Derek Classen (sans Dave Helman, who is out for family reasons) deliver a deep-dive preview of the NFL Wild Card round’s Sunday and Monday games. They break down the matchups with their signature blend of schematic insight, data analytics, and smart (occasionally irreverent) banter, focusing especially on why these games matter, where the matchups tilt, and what fans should expect.

Game-by-Game Breakdown

1. Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars

[03:43–23:46]

The Jags’ Bizarre/Perfect Season

• The Jaguars’ year has been “weird as hell,” marked by wild swings, key mid-season trades (e.g., Jacoby Myers), and moments when it seemed their season was over.
• [05:30] Derek: “There’s no way around that... The Jag season has been. It's been weird as hell.”
• The team looked unspectacular for much of the year, but evolved into a “real, substantial team” after the bye ([06:47]).

Why Are the Bills Slim Favorites?

• Bills are just 1.5 point favorites on the road, an “insane” proposition earlier this season ([04:51]).
• [04:51] Mays: “Imagine telling someone before Halloween that the Buffalo Bills would only be a one and a half point favorite in a road playoff game against the Jaguars. That is completely insane.”

Jaguars' New Identity & Playoff Threat Level

• The Jags' defense is “borderline top five” and their offense, especially post-Myers trade, is now truly dangerous.
• “By weighted DVOA, the Jaguars are third as a team in the NFL... They're behind only the Seahawks and the Rams. That's insane.” ([07:55])

Bills’ Offensive Identity vs. Jags’ Defensive Strengths

• The Bills’ run game relies on chunk plays and keeping defenses off balance, though their ground success is hard to bank on against a stingy Jaguars run D.
• [11:03] Mays: “The Jags run defense has been excellent this year... They do not give up explosives.”
• The Jags defense’s only statistical vulnerability is weak-side runs, which the Bills favor ([11:23]).

Passing Game Matchup

• Buffalo’s only route to consistent passing success: exploiting play-action from heavy personnel and hitting deep shots against the one structural area where Jacksonville’s D is average (base looks).
• But the Jags’ cornerback group, while lacking a superstar, is “deep” and matches up well against Buffalo’s receivers ([13:57]).

X-Factor: Josh Allen

• Bills need an “alien” performance from Josh Allen: improvisation, big runs, superhuman throws ([14:40] Classen, [15:13] Mays).
• If the game becomes a shootout (30+ required), Bills may fall short due to lack of supporting cast.

Jags’ Offense vs. Bills’ Bespoke Defensive Plans

• Jaguars' run game has fallen flat since midseason; their offense is now built on Trevor Lawrence’s improved play and increased scrambling ([15:56–16:58]).
• Key for the Bills: Craft custom coverage plans to mix zone/man and blitzes, aiming to force a couple Lawrence errors ([18:26, 20:59]).

Pivotal Individual Matchups / Strategic Notes

• Brian Thomas Jr.’s emergence as a vertical threat gives Jags flexibility if the Bills over-commit to stopping the short game.
• If Buffalo can’t win up front or on the edges, they’ll need turnover luck to keep the score manageable.

Picks

• Robert Mays: Sticks with the Jaguars as the better football team.
• Derek Classen: Hesitant, but ultimately picks the Bills, trusting “the alien quarterback” (Allen) to make the difference ([23:12]).

2. San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles

[26:32–38:01]

What Are These Teams, Really?

• 49ers: Up-and-down, defined by injuries and “Brock Purdy or bust,” but dangerous when clicking offensively.
  • Their offense looked like a playoff threat vs. the Colts/Bears, but was “dismantled” by Seattle’s elite D ([28:47]).
• [28:47] Mays: “How scary are they really? ... I’m not sure where I land.”

Eagles Outlook

• Defense is the best unit in this matchup; offense continues to be dependent on O-line health and scheme hitting on all cylinders ([28:57–29:52]).
• Mays: “They can win a game like this, I just don’t know if their defense rises to the level of, ‘They can win four straight games.’”

Niners Offense vs. Eagles Defense

• Eagles’ two-high/simulated pressure scheme is a particular challenge for Purdy, who has struggled with disguised looks ([30:15]).
• The Niners’ best avenue: Get McCaffrey involved underneath, attack Eagles linebackers in space ([31:21]).
• Injuries to Trent Williams and Ricky Pearsall may limit the Niners’ ability to attack outside the numbers ([32:15]).

Eagles Offense vs. 49ers Defense

• Eagles have feasted on weak defenses; 49ers are, at this moment, unambiguously a bad defense ([35:06]).
• Should be able to move the ball—talent edge is clear up front on both sides ([35:57–36:38]).
• For the pass game, Eagles should keep it simple: short RPOs, low air yardage plays, let Goddard and Brown make plays after the catch ([37:06]).

3. Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots

[38:01–53:18]

Patriots’ Miraculous Season

• Mike Vrabel has supplied competency; Drake May (potential MVP) has achieved a “99th percentile” sophomore outcome ([38:52]).
• The catch: Their 13 wins have mostly come against a soft schedule, with just 1–2 impressive victories ([39:38]).

Chargers’ Year: Frustrations & Silver Linings

• Despite injuries, a brutal OL, and a DC who may depart, there’s optimism: Herbert is playing at a top-tier level, the defense is smart, and the future is hopeful ([41:07–43:01]).
• Uncertainty looms with possible loss of DC Jesse Minter; “is this a wasted opportunity or not?” ([43:01]).

Key Matchup: Chargers O vs. Patriots D

• Patriots’ pass rush is talent-light, but they bring “funky” and creative blitzes (e.g., “hot coverage” and wild zone drops), and can manufacture confusion ([44:51–46:09]).
• Chargers’ pass protection plans have been “terrible” at times; if the Patriots can scheme free rushers, Herbert may be forced into mistakes ([46:09]).
• Chargers must attack with deep over routes; Herbert’s arm is one of the few that can threaten Patriots downfield ([47:00–47:49]).

Patriots O vs. Chargers D

• Can the Pats run against the Chargers’ light boxes? They must, as LA is designed to bait you into methodical, underneath play ([47:49–48:38]).
• Chargers are the best downfield pass defense in the league; Drake May leads the NFL in downfield attempts, but Chargers allow negative EPA on such throws—unheard of for 10+ air yards ([49:20–51:10]).
• Patriots must execute “boring” short gains, avoid their own tendency one-and-done, and limit negative plays ([51:32]).

4. Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers

[55:05–65:26]

Texans’ Inexplicable Transformation

• Started 0–3, had one of the league’s worst offenses in September, now look like dangerous AFC dark horse ([56:05]).
• [56:05] Classen: “Not sure there is any better representation of how weird this season is than the Houston Texans.”

Steelers Defensive Surge

• Historically, Pittsburgh’s D limps into playoffs, but in 2026, “the front is playing so well,” and unexpected contributors (Nick Herbig, Keanu Benton) are making an impact ([57:00–59:21]).
• DBs like Joey Porter Jr. have become legit, and the team’s schematics are finally matching its talent.

Key Matchup: Texans O vs. Steelers D

• Texans’ O-line is better now, but still “pickable” by elite fronts like Pittsburgh’s ([60:03–60:20]).
• The Steelers must move away from man coverage and disguise their schemes, as Stroud is among the league’s best against man ([61:37]).
• Matchup to watch: Nico Collins vs. Joey Porter Jr.—physical one-on-one battles outside ([62:30–62:41]).

Steelers O vs. Texans D

• “Do we have any faith that the Steelers offense is going to be able to do anything of consequence against the Texans defense?” ([62:58] Classen)
• Texans are best in the NFL at eliminating short throws—the thing the Steelers do most ([64:27]).
• [63:10] Mays: “Maybe DK Metcalf has the game of his life. Other than that, I really don't know how I'm supposed to see it... I have a hard time seeing how they move the ball in this game.”
• Steelers are overmatched both schematic- and talent-wise.

Notable Quotes & Moments

• “I think the Jags are a better team. I think the Bills win. I think that's fair...I just think they're the better team.” – Mays, [22:34], capturing the logic-bending feeling of this Bills–Jags matchup.
• “If this becomes a game where the Jaguars score like 30 and [Allen]’s gotta make a bunch of those [plays], and the pressure is really high...that’s a pretty heavy lift.” – Mays, [15:13]
• “This Patriots season has been the best case scenario and even that feels like it’s underselling it.” – Classen, [38:01]
• “I have a hard time seeing how they move the ball in this game.” – Mays on Steelers O vs. Texans D, [64:27]

Timestamps – Key Segments

• 03:43 – Bills-Jags preview opens
• 09:42 – State of the Bills offense & Allen’s “nuclear” potential
• 14:07 – Bills WRs vs. Jags DBs breakdown
• 17:00–19:51 – Game plan ideas for both defenses
• 22:00 – Hosts pick winner: split decision
• 26:32 – 49ers-Eagles preview begins
• 31:10 – How the 49ers attack the Eagles & injury impacts
• 35:06 – Eagles offense vs. 49ers defense: physical mismatch?
• 38:01 – Chargers-Patriots preview starts
• 44:51 – Chargers OL vs. Patriots pass rush plans
• 48:38 – Patriots offense must be patient, Chargers' downfield D
• 55:05 – Texans-Steelers preview kicks off
• 57:00 – Steelers defensive improvement
• 62:58 – Steelers’ offensive challenges laid bare
• 65:08 – O/U thoughts: expect a slugfest

Final Thoughts

This episode is a treasure trove for both schematic nerds and general fans, providing:

• Deep, granular analysis of how matchups might play out on the field
• A candid exploration of teams’ trajectories and real chances
• Several “game within the game” matchups that could decide outcomes (Allen vs. Jags D, Herbert vs. Pats blitzes, Porter Jr. vs. Collins)
• No fluff, no distractions—just smart football talk

If you want a serious edge heading into Wild Card weekend—or just want to sound smart at your football party—this episode delivers!