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- [00:00]
Robert Mays
We will answer your call as soon as we can.
- [00:03]
Derek Classen
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Robert Mays
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Derek Classen
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- [01:13]
Sponsor/Advertisement Voice
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- [02:51]
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- [03:39]
Robert Mays
Foreign.
- [03:43]
Derek Classen
Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays. It's part two of our Wild Card preview with me and Derek Classen no Dave today. He is taking care of a family matter but he will be back with us to recap the games on Saturday and Sunday night. We hit the Saturday games on part one of our preview, hitting the Panthers and Rams and Bears and Packers. Today it is the Sunday games and the Monday game. So we chatted a little Bills, Jags, Niners, Eagles, Chargers, Patriots and Texans Steelers. Really enjoyed digging into all of this with Eric. Let's get to it right now. Part two of our Wild Card preview here on the Athletic Football Show. Got four games with this one obviously the three Sunday games plus the Monday game. Be hitting these in chronological order. Let's start with the Bills at the Jags. These games presented by BetMGM. The bills are one and a half point favorites in this game. What? Let's start there. What do what do you make of that?
- [04:52]
Robert Mays
I don't think they're the better football team at this juncture. But also at the same time you think that okay. But also at the same time, imagine telling someone in like before Halloween that the Buffalo Bills would one be playing a playoff game against the Jaguars, but that they would only be a one and a half point favorite in a road playoff game. That is completely insane. The fact that we've arrived there, I think that says a lot about. I think it says more about the Bills, honestly.
- [05:19]
Derek Classen
But yeah, we hit this on the first show. Just want to kind of set the table of how we got here with each of these games. The Jag season has been. It's been weird as hell. Like, like there's no way around that.
- [05:30]
Robert Mays
It's been perfectly, like it's been a perfectly Jaguars good season. Does that make sense? Like a good Jaguar season could have only happened this way and it should have only happened this way.
- [05:40]
Derek Classen
Just think about all the beats of this Jag season, right? You have that game against the crazy game against the Chiefs on Monday night, which was incredibly fun. You have all these turnovers early in the year. You have that game against the Seahawks where they just get wiped off the face of the earth. The offense does. And then we brought this up a bunch. I have at least over the last few weeks as we've kind of sat with what the season has been. A lot of these teams who like one double digit games and feel like a threat to win multiple games in the playoffs had a moment this year where it just felt like their season was over. Where it was like, okay, cool, like year one of Liam Cohen didn't go the way that you wanted. We'll regroup and get better. And that was when the Jags played the Rams in London. And then they come back from that London game, come back after their buy. The Jacoby Myers trade happens and this Jags team who had won a decent amount of games early in the year, but again, it was a lot of it was turnover. The offense was like bottom five in passing success rate. None of it felt substantial, real. After the buy, they now have turned into what feels like one of the most real, substantial teams in the entire NFL.
- [06:47]
Robert Mays
It's a lot about like what we talked about, the Bears on the Saturday preview where it's like for the first eight weeks of the season, the record might have been fine. And they had some good moments that didn't feel real. Like we watched the Chiefs games and we were like, oh, that's crazy that they did that. That's probably not going to happen again. And I don't know if they're real. And then as you get to like.
- [07:04]
Derek Classen
Six on the goal line.
- [07:05]
Robert Mays
Yeah, the pick six on the goal. Like Trevor falling on his ass and then getting up and scoring like it just none of that game made any sense. And so none of that felt real. They make the Jacoby Myers trade. And even honestly, for the first like two or three weeks of that, I was like, okay, it's cool. Like, Jacoby Myers is what we thought he was going to be for them. He's like a safe guy over the middle. Trevor trusts him. This still feels a little bit too. A little too late. Like, it would have been nice if they got to start the season with him. And then as you get to like weeks 13, weeks 14, like when they played. I know the Titans are not a great defense, but when they played them, I think in week 13, that was, I think, the first game where I watched that passing offense and I was like, oh, shit. Like, they, this could be real. If they can do this against some real defenses, I'll believe it. And then they had the insane game that they played against Denver and then I know Indy's defense isn't great either game too. Yeah, the Chargers. That's right.
- [07:53]
Derek Classen
Yes, Chargers. And either.
- [07:54]
Robert Mays
Incredible.
- [07:55]
Derek Classen
It was a strange game because obviously Trevor throws a couple interceptions. You have the weird fumble that gets returned for a touchdown. The way they looked against the Cardinals, that was one of those games where I think it was because it was in a late window and I was just watching it really closely. But it was one of those things that happened in real time where I was just like, I kind of like this. Like, even with the turnovers, how vertical the offense felt. It just seemed like they were trending towards something very real. And now you look at it, the Jags overall, and I think the difference between the Jags and the Bears, we don't have to like sit in this. But the Bears defense is still a bad unit. The Jags defense is a borderline top five unit. Combined with what the offense is doing by weighted dvoa, the Jaguars are third as a team in the NFL. The only team they're behind are the Sea is the Seahawks and the Rams. That's it. That's insane. Like, we are at a place where if you sat here and with a straight face said, I think the Jags can come out of the afc. That's not a crazy thing to say.
- [08:55]
Robert Mays
I think. I think I kind of do believe that again, which is going to look really dumb when they lose this game. But I think I really do believe.
- [09:02]
Derek Classen
They are underdogs in this game.
- [09:03]
Robert Mays
I know, I know. But when I said on the Week 18 Sunday show that I really do believe, like, this might feel like the AFC championship game, I Think there's a good chance that we come out of this game being like that. Whoever wins this game does feel like they can do it.
- [09:15]
Derek Classen
Okay, so we have a Jags team that I picked Anthony Campanile for assistant coach of the year yesterday. Right. I mean that's. The defense looks great, the offense looks great. Trevor is playing the best football of his career. They're again, they're third in weighted evoa. There's a chance they can win the Super Bowl. They are one and a half point underdogs in this game. So where does that leave us with the Buffalo bills? It is January 8, it's 4pm Central Time. How do you currently feel about the Buffalo Bills?
- [09:43]
Robert Mays
I. I think at least a couple of points there on that over and under are purely just like Josh Allen might go nuclear, which he like he can do even against really good defenses. I think that he's proven that he can do. But at the same time, like there have been games against some of the better defenses, especially ones I can get after the quarterback a little bit, which that's not really how this Jaguars defense wins necessarily. But like you think about the Falcons game, the Texans game, like teams that can like get on them with a pretty good game plan. Every now and then you see the Buffalo team struggle and I will say, like they're. I've harped on this all year when they can get under center, when they can run the ball and they can be in like all the heavy stuff that they want to. It's not just that they control the game that way. The only thing they're good at as a passing offense is getting into that stuff and throwing down the field, which actually do the. Is probably the best way that you can beat this Jags defense. Like if you watch the Denver game, they played Denver's offense pretty well for the most part. The couple of times that they got beat where when they were in some of their split field coverages and Denver did a really good job of maybe it's cover six and they like run off both the quarters guys with two posts and they just run it deep over into that void. They did some really good stuff like that. And the Bills, that's the best stuff in their passing game. So if they can. If they can live in that, they'll be good. Whenever they've not been able to do that this year, they've been a little bit shaky.
- [10:54]
Derek Classen
The Jags run defense has been excellent this year. I mean and it's excellent against everything under center. It doesn't really matter the personnel packages that you're playing with. Like the Jag run defense, the numbers.
- [11:04]
Robert Mays
Are very, very good and from too high. It's a lot of in the same way that we always talk about the Eagles and the Chargers being like, you know, maybe the success rate is like just okay, but they don't give up explosives and they like again like them just being okay as a run defense sometimes by success rate is actually really good when you scale for how good they are when they're a pass defense, when they get you into those spots.
- [11:24]
Derek Classen
Yeah, they're like top 10 in a lot, in a lot of those metrics and so. And their top five in rushing success rate defensively, I was looking the next gen numbers against all heavy personnel runs. And so I think that's worth pointing out to the Bills. And so the only thing, and this is like very, very granular, but the Jags run defense has been relatively worse against weak side runs this year. And the Bills run weak side runs more than half the time. I think it's the second highest rate in the league per next gen. That's like the one tidbit I could find of like where the Bills might have a definitive advantage on the ground. The Bills run rushing offense is good enough that in any game they could explode and that can happen. But it's not like a matchup that's tilted in their favor as we get ready to do this.
- [12:06]
Robert Mays
It's not and I will say like I, the Bills run game can't have these good games where they just, you know, five, six yards at a time, couple of eight yard runs here and there. They have been at their absolute best when James Cook has like two like 2030 yard runs, whatever it is, and he really is able to move them immediately into field goal range and all that jazz. The Jaguars, since week 10, they are one of only five teams who have allowed three or fewer runs of 20 yards. Like they, they really do not give up explosives. And it's because kind of like we talked about on the coach of the year show or on the award show when we were talking about assistant coach of the year, they tackle incredibly well. Like these guys fly around, they hit, they are not afraid to take like really aggressive angles. They don't really give you a lot of those explosive runs and the Bills probably would need a couple of those. So I think comfortably win the game.
- [12:49]
Derek Classen
You mentioned this and I think if I'm trying to build a plan for how the Bills can throw the ball in this game, the Jags were the 11th worst passing by passing success rate. They were the 11th worst defense out of base personnel this season per next gen stats. And so with Dalton Kincaid back healthy, hopefully what does this look like when the Bills can throw the ball out of 21 and 22 personnel? Because those are the chunks that I think you are going to need in this game. Because if you're going to get into some of those third downs where it's third and seven, the Jags are comfortable playing man in those situations. They bring a lot of funky pressures. The bills are 27th this year and success rate against man blitzes. Like they just that that passing offense like situationally they just have so many limitations and so unless they're able to dictate how the game goes on that side of the ball, because they're running the ball well and they can kind of use complimentary play action off of it, I just think that there are so many limitations personnel wise, especially with the receivers and it's led to such a volatility in the passing game against a really good pass defense. If the Jags are able to play their game on that side of the ball, I think the Bills are at.
- [13:58]
Robert Mays
A serious disadvant and the Jaguars corner room is deep. Like I don't think they have a superstar there, but all those guys can hold their own. They're all playing well and they're all playing their best, especially against this team.
- [14:07]
Derek Classen
What is there?
- [14:08]
Robert Mays
Who are you scared of?
- [14:09]
Derek Classen
Is there one single on the perimeter? Is there one single matchup that you think favors the Bills? Even if it's a bunch of DBs that most general football fans will be watching for the first time this, this weekend. My Tarek Brown, Antonio Neo Johnson, like.
- [14:24]
Robert Mays
I don't think like Jerry and Jones. I can't even like say this like full heartedly. I was going to say like, okay, well you know they got a couple of Brandon Cooks plays the last time but like I think all these Jack Stevies are better than Brandon Cooks right now. Like I just, I really think it is going to be kind of difficult for them if they can't run the ball the way that they want.
- [14:41]
Derek Classen
It's silly to kind of come back to what seems like a really simplistic answer. But the joke you made about like Josh Allen's doing a lot of heavy lifting when it comes to that, the line, that's what needs to happen. That's what needs to happen in this game and that's what needs to happen throughout these playoffs. Like he needs to have nuclear performances like we need to have the sort of games where you look up at the end of it and he's created three or four explosives and then on the ground he has seven carries for 86 yards in a touchdown. Like that is the type of game I think they need from him in order to do some damage against what is a very good Jaguars defense.
- [15:14]
Robert Mays
And honestly, I will say I think he can do that if it's a 24 to 20 game and you just gotta make two or three superstar plays. If this becomes a game where the Jaguars score like 30 and he's gotta make a bunch of those and the pressure is really high to like throw all the time, obviously he's great, but just like when he's not equipped with that many good receivers against what is a pretty good Jags passing defense, I do think that is a pretty heavy lift that he's gonna have to have.
- [15:37]
Derek Classen
So do we think he's going to need 30 based on what you expect the Jags offense to be able to do against the Bills?
- [15:45]
Robert Mays
Kind of like you really do you.
- [15:46]
Derek Classen
Think, you think that they're going to be able to like move the ball at will in this game?
- [15:49]
Robert Mays
I'm so. I. What I normally say against the Bills run defense is that you can get after them in the run game. The Jaguars cannot do that.
- [15:57]
Derek Classen
They're 31st in rushing success rates since the buy.
- [15:59]
Robert Mays
They've been terrible. And which is funny because they actually had to like when the, when the passing offense was.
- [16:03]
Derek Classen
It was the best part early on.
- [16:05]
Robert Mays
Yeah, they actually had a couple of games where they ran the ball really well, but they really have not been able to do that. Like they just. We knew that this was a line that was driven more by some of the stuff they can scheme up rather than some of the talent. And I think you felt that as the second half of the year has gone on, they've just gotten away with being a really, really good passing offense. And I will say, like the run game has been supplemented a little bit by the fact that Trevor will scramble now. Like he. He actually is running at a higher rate than he ever has. Like he's. Since week 10, which that I keep using week 10 because that to me feels like when the Jaguars became a real team. He has a 7.7% scramble rate, which is the highest of his career by almost 2% and it's higher than like Caleb, Bo Nix, Brock Purdy. It's the same as Mahomes. He actually has the same exact amount of scrambles and scramble success rate as Drake may. And so I do think that he's probably going to have to run three or four times to be able to do that instead of. And I would think about using him as a design runner in this game because he is a really good athlete.
- [16:59]
Derek Classen
The fact that we finally have this version of Trevor Lord, I know where he's doing all this, it's like all we've ever asked for. The fact that this doesn't feel like the sort of game where the opponent's running game can take over to me creates a path for the Bills because the numbers are. There's a lot. There's a lot baked in here. They are 10th in defensive passing success rate, I believe in the back half of the season. Some of that is driven by the fact that they played against the Browns. They played against an Eagles team that did not complete a passion in the back in the second half of that game. And so there's a really low success rate games as part of that equation. I don't know if that's necessarily an indication of the overall quality of the past defense, but this is the sort of defense that you use the phrase in the last show talking about bespoke game plans. This is, that's what this defense is like that in that exact way. I think that's why they are potentially well positioned for the playoffs. Because if you cannot grind them down on the ground and you're going to be in enough third and sevens over the course of the game, this coaching staff is pretty good at devising hyper specific ways that they want to get after the teams that they're playing against. The second half against the Patriots, the game they played against the Chiefs, like we've seen them do that this year.
- [18:15]
Robert Mays
Against even good quarterbacks, even the Ravens game I think was actually one of the high like week one was one of the highest blitz rate games that they had in the Sean McDermott era. And obviously the Ravens Guild scored a ton, but that was because of the run defense really more than anything.
- [18:27]
Derek Classen
I'll be curious what that sort of bespoke game plan looks like against the Jacks because in your mind I think you, if you were trying to build a way and you know Trevor well enough that like you know where the bodies are buried. I think in your mind you would want to see a team or you would, you wouldn't want to see a team play a bunch of man coverage and make him make throws the entire game.
- [18:46]
Robert Mays
Yeah, because. Because I do think like he's playing incredibly well right now and I Think he's seeing it well. And I think whenever he's played at his best, even before, but even I think right now, when he knows he's getting zone coverage pre snap and he can like kind of pick a side and all that stuff, because their, their passing game is a lot of pick a side. It's not as much like peer progression as some other teams. He's phenomenal at that. He'll get to the top of his drop, he'll rip it, he can throw the ball really hard through some of these tight windows. I do think when you ask him to throw against man coverage, you can get some games where he's just not fully dialed in with some of the accuracy every, every now and then. And so I think asking him to do that, that might be the way to go. What I will say is like, you know, Buffalo has oscillated in terms of like what that bespoke game plan is. Sometimes it'll be heavy, man. Sometimes it'll be some weird zone stuff. When I looked at what Trevor did against Indy where he's taking a lot of the underneath stuff and he's doing a good job of like dealing with some of the simulated pressures, I'm like, okay, that's awesome. He did the same thing against that Tennessee game that I mentioned earlier. And then you look at what he did against the Broncos where it is a lot more one on one main coverage and he was making some of those. So I'm like, he's proven to me he can kind of do both with the current construction of this offense. So I really am excited to see where the Buffalo takes it.
- [19:51]
Derek Classen
In the first, like, month after they made the Jacoby Myers trade, the splits between man zone were heavily in favor of what they were doing against zone coverage. It was him just like ripping the ball into voids. And when they were forcing him to make some tighter window throws, the offense just was a little bit less dangerous. That wasn't really the case over the back half of the season. Like those things, the gap between those numbers really started to close because they were finding a ton of explosive plays against man coverage. Some of that is the ability to like turn Brian Thomas Jr. Into this, like outside the numbers, one on one vertical piece of the offense and allowing him to just kind of be that while everyone else got to do the more well rounded, nuanced stuff. And so they have an option if you want to play like that too. And the fact that Maxwell Harrison doesn't seem like he's going to play in this game missing that long speed against the team that is really deploying Brian Thomas Jr. In that way. I think that's something to keep in mind. So the fact that the again, the man zone quality is kind of come to a similar level over the back half of the season, I still think if I was trying to build like the game plan, I'd want to see from the Bills. I think I just want to see it be as funky as possible.
- [20:56]
Robert Mays
You want that Arizona game again? Yeah, I think you just want it because you thought it was fun.
- [21:00]
Derek Classen
I think that's what I want to do. I think it's. We're setting a bunch of simulated pressures. There's a ton of disguise on the back end. Like can we get one, can we get one or two? I think that is the version of the game I'd want to see from the Bills. Even if in your mind he's been a little bit better if you give him some of those windows against man against own coverage.
- [21:19]
Robert Mays
And I get that because like he's. I think he's gotten much better about knowing when to holster stuff and knowing when he's got a bad look and stuff. But once a game he does. He does still try to give you one.
- [21:30]
Derek Classen
And I also think that the Bills front like Rousseau is playing well. Bosa, this is why you went out and signed Joey Bosa. Like, if you make him hold it for a tick in the pocket, can some of those guys get home? Especially if you're going to be bringing some funky pressure. Looks like the Jags offensive line still is overall the weak link of what this offense is. So I. I'll be really curious. I don't know what the answer is, but that is one of the things I'm most looking forward to finding out this weekend is what do the Bills think the best plan is for this version of the Jags offense?
- [22:01]
Robert Mays
I'm going to put. Do you. Who do you think wins this game? I want to put you on the spot because you. You know who I'm picking. Of course I'm picking the Jags, I have to believe. But I want to put you on the spot on this one because I do think this probably is like objectively the hardest game to pick this in this bracket. Maybe the Packers. Bears is pretty tough too, but I think this one is insane.
- [22:19]
Derek Classen
You didn't pick it on the. On this. On the podcast, but you picked it on the live show last night. You think the Bears are going to win?
- [22:24]
Robert Mays
I do think the Bears are going to win that other game. Yes.
- [22:26]
Derek Classen
Which is just terrifying to me. Here. Here's what I will say. I think the Jags are a better team.
- [22:34]
Robert Mays
I think the Bills win. I think that's fair. I mean, they've done it before. Like, Josh Allen's got playoff experience. Sean McDermott does. This is a very young Jags team. I just. I. I do think they're the better team. And I probably default to, like, that simple black and white thinking a little bit too much of, like, I just think they're the better team, but I just. I do.
- [22:52]
Derek Classen
Maybe this is just me, like, shrinking into nothingness when it comes to thinking about the game this way, but the fact that Josh Allen is, like, the last one left there is. Is like the last vestige of just like. I think I'm just gonna pick the alien quarterback. And I was gonna say the better quarterback. I don't want to. Like, the other quarterback in this game is playing. Really? Really.
- [23:10]
Robert Mays
When it's one of the three, you can say that. It's fine.
- [23:13]
Derek Classen
Yeah. Because I think better is. You're trying to indicate that, like, the other quarterback isn't good. Like, that would be. I don't. I don't even want to say one of the names. Like, if. If the Bills are playing against Denver, I'll say it. It's fine. Yes. If the Bills are playing against the Broncos, I think you could easily. That that's when we'd be like, I'll pick the better quarterback. I. That's not how I want to frame what Trevor Lawrence is. I think that's why, like, in. I'll pick the alien quarterback doing the alien things one last time, because he's the last one that we have.
- [23:45]
Robert Mays
That's fair. I get it.
- [23:46]
Derek Classen
We're going to take our first quick break and then come back and chat a little. Niners Eagles.
- [23:52]
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- [26:04]
Robert Mays
Mom, I like to propose a dinner.
- [26:06]
Derek Classen
Optimization plan for 2026 soccer practice every week. Get back late and you're stressed out about making something fast but acting nutritious for dinner. When Ashley's mom picked me up, I.
- [26:14]
Robert Mays
Noticed that she made Blue Apron.
- [26:16]
Derek Classen
It came like a little kit. By the time it was ready, I still had shin guards on and it was real food. Fresh veggies, protein, actual flavor Taker from.
- [26:23]
Robert Mays
The younger generation were innovators.
- [26:25]
Derek Classen
Give me a couple Blue Apron meals around. Not the worst idea.
- [26:28]
Robert Mays
Get 50% off your first two orders.
- [26:30]
Derek Classen
Plus free shipping with code.
- [26:31]
Robert Mays
Listen, 50 terms and conditions apply.
- [26:32]
Derek Classen
Visit blue apron.com terms for more. All right Niners at Eagles The Eagles are 4 1/2 point favorites in this game. The Niners. It's not exactly like the Jags because obviously the Niners offense was playing better even when Mac Jones was playing. But for the first half of the year it felt like oh, the Niners are kind of a fun story and, you know, they're winning a lot of games against a lot of bad teams, and Mac Jones is playing pretty well. And look at the job Kyle Shanahan is doing. But how scary are they really? And then Brock Purdy gets back, he doesn't look healthy. And you have a game against the Cardinals where they destroy Arizona, but the quarterback doesn't play very well. You have that ugly game against Carolina, it's like, all right, like, are the Niners really going to get to a place where they feel like a threat in the nfc? And then you have that stretch where the offense really just starts to roll against the Colts, against the Bears, and then they get dismantled by the Seahawks. And so I think where I'm at with the Niners is we know that the defense is hanging on for dear life to no fault of their own. It was an incredibly young unit that was relying on two guys that needed to be superstars for it all to come together. And then they lost both superstars. The offense was going to have to carry them. And so how you feel about the Niners right now and how you feel about the Niners chances in these playoffs comes down to, are they the team that played against the Colts and the Bears, or are they closer to the team that played against the Seahawks? And I, I'm not sure where I land on that, because the Seahawks are the best defense in the league and one of the best defenses we've seen in, like, several years. So I don't want to diminish them too much for what that performance looked like.
- [28:12]
Robert Mays
That's the thing. And like, I think it being week 18, where it's the last time we saw them, I think if that happened in week 17 and then we got one of the Colts or the Bears game after that, I think we would probably feel a little bit differently. I am, like, mildly worried that one of the really good defenses could give them a little bit of trouble like that again. And not to get too far ahead, but, like, they do play one of those this week in the Eagles, and they play. It's not just that the Eagles are good. They're like, DNA wise, very similar to what the Seahawks do. And so I, I think against a lot of teams, the Niners could look closer to, like what they did against the Colts. But this is going to be one of the games where I think it could be the other way.
- [28:47]
Derek Classen
I asked you this about the Bills. What do you make of the Philadelphia Eagles right now? Again, the Philadelphia Eagles, who are favored by four and a half points to win this game.
- [28:58]
Robert Mays
I. I think the offense, I almost, you know. You know what's weird? I almost feel very similarly to. Even though they're a much more talented team, and I think obviously their defense is the best unit of all these teams, I don't feel that differently than I do about them against, like, the Steelers, where it's like, they can win one of these games, maybe even the next game, if it's a great matchup. I just struggle to, like, really feel like this team has the juice for round one because the offense is built through the offensive line, it's not playing as well, and it's still a little bit banged up. And then they've had oscillations of years where if the play call is right, offense is good and they can go in or go to the super bowl, win the super bowl, and when it's not, they can't. And this year, I think, is one of those can't years. The defense is awesome, which is why I do think that they can win a game like this. I just don't know if their defense rises to the level of they can win four straight games. The way I feel about the Texans or the Seahawks or potentially even, like, the Broncos or something like that.
- [29:53]
Derek Classen
I think that's fair. Let's start with one. The Niners have the ball in this game because that's easily the most interesting side of the ball here. You said pretty definitively and with some confidence that you think the Eagles defense is the best unit of the four in this game. You think the Eagles defense is a better unit definitively than the Niners offense? I'm just saying. I was surprised to hear you say with that level of conviction.
- [30:16]
Robert Mays
I think because of the matchup. Yes. Like, I think if I'm just saying, like, all of these four units against X average opponent, I think maybe I would pick the Niners just because obviously I love Kyle Shanahan. But I do think that, like, the way that the Eagles defense is built, which is very similar to the Seahawks, where it's a lot of COVID six. It's a lot of these two high rotations where we're spinning a guy down, they're not really bringing a lot of extra bodies. They're doing a lot of these simulated pressures, which I think Brock Purdy at times when you get him, it's because you get him guessing on a lot of these simulated pressures, and he holds onto the ball, comes back to routes a little bit late. And so I think that there is a chance that this looks you know, they won't hold them to three points the way that the Seattle Seahawks did. If they hold them to like 18 or 20, I don't not think that that is unreasonable. And then like this Eagles offense, even for as much as I don't like watching it like they can score 24 or 27 against this 49ers defense. So I like that to me is like how this game could play out for them.
- [31:11]
Derek Classen
What do you think is the best path for the 49ers offense in this game against what you seem to think is like and rightfully so, is a very good Eagles defense that's playing some of its best ball right now?
- [31:22]
Robert Mays
I actually think it's kind of hard to find Cause I do think like in the back end where I get scared for this is like obviously some of the stuff that they do in terms of rotations and disguising coverage. I think maybe you can get pretty once or twice I them closing a lot of the windows on him with how well the Gene and Mitchell are playing. That scares me especially over the middle down the field. I do think if they can get Christian McCaffrey really working like in the underneath area, like I don't think Zach Bond has been quite as good in space this year. I think Nakobe Dean is really good when he's moving forward, when he has to like see stuff and really like, you know, take an option route out of the backfield, whatever it is, I think he struggles. And so if they can get, I don't know what the number would be, but if they can get a lot of those targets to Christian McCaffrey over the middle of the field, especially underneath, I think that is probably a good way for them to do this because I still think like Vaughn is good when he's getting depth and playing stuff. But again in some of those one on one scenarios where he's just got to go tackle a guy, I think he's been a little bit worse this year.
- [32:15]
Derek Classen
The two guys that might not play in this game for the Niners on off on offense, Trent Williams is still hurt, still nursing that hamstring. And to me not having Ricky Pearsall in this game is like massively important because against a lot of teams when you just think about matchups and the way that you can attack them, the Niners offense can survive without Ricky Pierce. All in games where they're hitting chunk after chunk on in breakers 10 to 15 yards past the line of scrimmage that those are, those throws are not going to be available to you against the Eagles, Ricky Pearsall and like some explosives outside the numbers in one on one situations against Adore Jackson, like that becomes hugely important against this version of the Eagles. And so not having him like you miss that, like they're the only real explosives they've had to receivers this year have been in this like isolated moments when Ricky Piersoll has been able to play. Juwan Jennings is a reliable target in some situations. He's not an explosive piece. And so I think that they've been able to do a really good job with the fact that Pearsall hasn't played that much this year. But in this game specifically, I think you will miss him if he does not play.
- [33:20]
Robert Mays
I think you absolutely will. And I wonder like, you know, again, Vic Fangio is not a guy who blitzes a ton. I would think about it in this game, not because it really has anything to do with Purdy or anything like that, but I would try to really do whatever you can to occupy the running back. Because if I just said like the best thing that you can do as the Niners offense, especially if Pierce Law is not going to play, is try to see if we can pepper McCaffrey underneath. Well, if we can hold him in pass protection two or three more times than he normally would be, I think that's probably the best way. Especially again if those Niners don't have a guy that they really trust to win. Deepen outside of the numbers.
- [33:51]
Derek Classen
And getting Jalen Carter back, and getting a healthy Jalen Carter back is worth mentioning. Like that has been hugely important for the Eagles defense. Looking like a different unit over the last few weeks than the, I mean you look back and like what the Bears run game did to them and the fact that Jalen Carter was just like clearly not healthy in that game, getting him back and getting him back close to or at least or at 100%. You've really noticed the difference in like what that does for the Eagles defense.
- [34:16]
Robert Mays
Because again, Vic Fangio doesn't want to bring extra bodies. And so if you just have Jalen Carter who can nuke stuff all by himself. And I do think that this, you know, 49ers interior is obviously pretty gettable and the left tackle might be gettable if Trent Williams doesn't play in this game. I do think them being able to get home with four, even if it's some of these simulators where we can occupy the back, that's. That's going to be how you win this game.
- [34:35]
Derek Classen
Let's get to the Other side of the ball. You mentioned it. The Eagles, even with their relative struggles, should in theory be able to move the goal, move the ball against this version of the Niners defense. If you look at what the Eagles offense has been over the back half of the season, the games where they have been productive offensively, Washington and the Raiders, it's really it. And so when they've played bad defenses, they have been able to find some answers. And unfortunately the Niners coming into the playoffs are an unambiguously bad defense.
- [35:07]
Robert Mays
Because that's the thing, right, is when you watch the Eagles offense for most of the year it's like okay, the talent is great and it's whenever they face like an average or better defense than that, it's like man, they just can't out scheme anybody and they're just not helping any of their players. But then yeah, when you face some of these bad defenses, the Washingtons, the Las Vegas, whoever it is, well, even if we can't scheme guys open, you don't really have to do a whole lot of help for AJ Brown or even I know the run game has been success rate wise not as good as you want it to be. I think if you chip away at this 49ers front, especially with just how insanely banged up that they are, you're going to get two or three explosive Saquon Barkley runs. So I really do just think about.
- [35:45]
Derek Classen
What are able to do.
- [35:46]
Robert Mays
Like if the Seahawks can do it, you can do it as the Eagles again, even if you are a diminished version of yourself. So I really do think that this, if they just try to control the ball, they are just too talented I think to not come out of this.
- [35:58]
Derek Classen
Okay, sounds like Lane Johnson is going to play in this game which again if you that was my concern about the Niners even a month ago when we watched that game they played against the Titans, I was like when we get into the playoffs, any, almost any one of the teams they play outside of, maybe the Bears and now the packers without Micah Parsons, but the Rams, the Seahawks and the Eagles in the NFC playoff field are going to be better up front on both sides of the ball than the Niners are. And that's where we've arrived. Like we were at a point where the Niners are worse up front on offense and defense against this Eagles team. And it's a simplistic way of seeing things. But like it's hard to win games when that's the case.
- [36:39]
Robert Mays
It's incredibly hard to win games, especially if like we just mentioned if Rick, you could. I could sell myself on the world where the Niners have to throw the ball a ton and if Ricky Pearsall is out there, they could win the game that way. If he's not going to be out there. And you kind of do need your offensive line to help you out a little bit more, both in the run game and the pass game. It's. It's hard to imagine they're going to be able to do that.
- [36:58]
Derek Classen
What do you think outside of the run game, what do you think, like the pathways are for the Eagles passing game? That has been incredibly frustrating for most of the year.
- [37:07]
Robert Mays
Honestly, I really struggled to figure out what I wanted to do with the Eagles passing game because I really think that they've struggled to tap into a whole lot of anything this year because I think in previous years a lot of their favorite stuff has been like, we're going to throw a bunch of sail routes to Dallas Goddard. And that's really not something that they've done this year. I will say some of their best moments this year have been a lot of their shorter stuff, whether it's some of the short RPOs, especially like the slide routes. And I would say want to tap into that a little bit because I do think the Niners DBs are ferocious and I like the way that they play. A lot of them are pretty small and I do think that there's like a high percentage chance that Dallas Goddard can just like bounce off of a guy and go pick up five or six more extra yards and they can move the ball consistently that way. So I would probably try to tap into that and keep it as like low volume a game as we can be on 10 air yards outside of like pure go balls. If you want to throw a few of those, that's fine.
- [38:02]
Derek Classen
Speaking of low volume plays outside of 10 air yards, let's get into the Chargers at the Patriots. Patriots are three and a half point favorites in this game at home against the Chargers. This Patriot season has been the best case scenario and even that feels like it's underselling it. Like it has been everything you could have wanted and so, so much more. If you're a Patriots fan, you hire Mike Vrabel. The entire point of this is to bring like some stability and some validity back to the organ you immediately have gotten it. And even if you were high on what Drake may could be in year two, the idea that he was going to be that next guy that would be an MVP level player in his second season. What percentile outcome is that? It's like 99th and that's what happened.
- [38:52]
Robert Mays
Even as like a humongous Drake May supporter, I was like, I hope he gets here by the end of the rookie contract. Like that. That to me was like the, the Rosie outlook. The fact that he in year two pretty comfortably feels like that guy is. Is insane to me. And we've talked about it a number of times before. It's everything. It's the decision making, the accuracy. In spite of him throwing the ball down the field all the time. Like, he is accurate to every single level of the field. Like, he's just, He's. He's been incredible for them.
- [39:19]
Derek Classen
The Patriots are the number two seed in the AFC. They've won, what, 13 games.
- [39:23]
Robert Mays
13.
- [39:24]
Derek Classen
They won 13 games. The biggest question about New England is going to be how much of that is a product of the teams that they have played. The Patriots just haven't really beaten that many complete teams over the course of this season. Like, what's the best win on the Patriots schedule outside.
- [39:39]
Robert Mays
Outside of the first Buffalo game? Like, I was going to like instinctively say the Bucks game, but even the Bucks game doesn't really feel like it's that impressive at this point.
- [39:48]
Derek Classen
The Bucks were already cratering by the time they play. That was like the beginning of the cratering for the Bucs was in early November.
- [39:54]
Robert Mays
We can put that on Drake May's MVP resume that he started through in the Bucks. Other than that, it's like, I mean, the. And see, I was going to say the Ravens too, but it's not the mark I heard the first quarter exactly. Like, they really don't have a super impressive win on this other than that, that first Bills game.
- [40:09]
Derek Classen
And I don't mean, I don't say that to mean like their fraudulent.
- [40:14]
Robert Mays
And no, because they did dominate most of the other teams that they played. The bad teams. They beat the hell out of them.
- [40:18]
Derek Classen
All you can do is play the teams on your schedule and beat the shit out of them if you're a good team. And that's exactly what the Patriots have. I say that only meaning, like, do we really have a sense of how good the Patriots are based on the teams that they have played this year? I think it's hard to say yes or no.
- [40:33]
Robert Mays
I think it's incredibly hard to say yes or no. And I like, honestly with. With the offense, I can at least feel like it's some amount of real. Because Drake May is awesome with the defense. I do think it is tougher because they played like an incredibly easy schedule of quarterbacks. I think when you watch them, you can feel a lot of the issues that they have. No, Milton Williams has been like a big issue for them. Like they. The defense is the one where it's like, if they. And maybe it won't happen in this game because the Chargers offense has all its flaws, but, like, if they lose a game at some point in the AFC playoffs because someone just scores 38 on them, even a team like the Broncos, where I think the offense can be up and down, I don't think that that would be that surprising to.
- [41:08]
Derek Classen
Me on the Charger side of this. I was thinking about this this morning, just like, how frustrated I would be if a Charger as a Chargers fan. Not how frustrated, but, like, where I would land on this current situation if I were a Chargers fan. Because I think there's part of me that would look at how bad the offensive line has been this year and how much it's torpedoed the offense and say, okay, next season, get Rashad Slater back, you get Joe Walt back. Which that's been part of the problem. Like the interior being so bad with the guys you picked and the pass protection plan and just how teams have picked on them. This goes beyond tackle injuries for what the Chargers pass protection has been. But. But you assume it's going to be better with the tackles back next year. Justin Herbert is playing really, really, really good football. The video I did this week on the YouTube channel is about Justin Herbert. And just like some of the things he's had to overcome this season, he's playing at an insanely high level, even if a lot of the traditional numbers may not indicate that because of what he's had to overcome with the pass protection. So you have this incredible quarterback, your pass protection is going to get better next year. And the defense still is a unit that they're 31st in defensive spending and they are definitively a top 10 unit. And so what you're building on that side of the ball, it's like, okay, this has been a frustrating year, but it's hard not to be excited about where the organization is overall. At the same time, there's a chance Jesse Minter is gone at the end of this season and that the schematic advantages that you've been given on that side of the ball are never going to be as good as they've been over the last couple of years, even if the talent gets better. And so is this a wasted opportunity this season for the Chargers based on so many things lining up for them or is there still so much good stuff from the first two years of the Jim Harbaugh era that you think and the offensive line's not good enough but will there will be a moment where we get there? I don't know which one I land on.
- [43:01]
Robert Mays
I don't know which one either. I think I really would have to think about that a lot and I think, I think a lot of the, the time I would have to spend there is like trying to divorce or trying to separate. How good do I think the players on the Chargers defense are for whoever steps into the job next and how much of this was Jesse mentor? I think that's the hardest part of it, right.
- [43:21]
Derek Classen
I think that they are still there is talent acquisition. I think that needs to happen for the Chargers over the next couple of years either way, right?
- [43:28]
Robert Mays
Like yeah, when you're 31st in defensive spending and that was my complaint coming in, I was like they need to pay for one defensive superstar and they didn't. And I get it. Like you're still what they won 11. They won 11 games without having done that. Like I get it.
- [43:38]
Derek Classen
My pushback is where that defensive superstar would be coming from in free agency, right.
- [43:42]
Robert Mays
I especially this year. I forget who I, I would have said it would have been last year but like still I would have wanted a little bit more punch for this. But they still ended up in incredibly good defense. And even if whoever the next defensive coordinator that they hire is good, it's year one of a system and usually that stuff takes a little bit of a ramp up time. And even for as good as Jesse Minter was last year, that defense still had some holes that I think that you could pick on and teams really did a good job of attacking them down the field and that's something that they patched up this year which is just like I think them having to go through that next year, even if the next guy is good, that that could be what limits their ceiling a little bit.
- [44:13]
Derek Classen
Next time let's start when the Chargers have the ball in this game, I obviously like this is going to come down to how you protect the quarterback because when he has been protected, he has played incredible football. When he hasn't been protected, we have seen the downside cases and just how almost like non functional the offense has been at times. I think the biggest question about this game on that side of the ball is is the Patriots front the type of unit that can turn the Chargers into that like nonfunctional version of itself? Like, can they be. Are they good enough to completely take advantage of what the Chargers are along the offensive line? And I don't know if they are.
- [44:52]
Robert Mays
Necessarily, I think, purely on talent, probably not, especially without Milton Williams. Like, some of the other guys are having nice seasons for, like, what the team paid for them and stuff like that, but it's not a whole lot of other needle movers. What I will say is that kind of, like you mentioned earlier, the. The Chargers pass protection plans in a lot of these games have been terrible. I mean, the Eagles game is like the. The most egregious one that they had where it was just free rushers in the A gap all the time. I do think that New England, especially lately over the past, you know, six weeks or so, they don't blitz a ton. Like, it's not like a Brian Flores defense, but they'll do it about a quarter of the time. And when they do, they bring some really weird shit, man. Like, they, they. The just like, who they're dropping, where they're lining guys up before the snap. I do think it is really funky and they. It's one of those, like, some of it is kind of structurally unsound and, like, kind of crazy. But they're. I think they have to play that way. Like, they'll play a lot of what I've heard called, like, hot coverage, where it's like three deep, two under, where, like, you really are bringing six guys. It's a bunch of like, funky drops and stuff like that. And so I think if they can do that and really force these guys to. To pick some stuff up, I think that's where, where you can get them. Because I do think, like, again, Herbert, I think, has some good moments there, but if you get 5, 6, 7 free rushers over the course of the game, eventually he's going to go down or try to give you one.
- [46:10]
Derek Classen
Yeah, I don't. I don't have a good feel for it. I, like, I would, like, legitimately don't know. I. Because when we have. I guess it's a question of, like, the Patriots defense has not played against that many good offenses over the course of the year. It's the same question about the team overall. And so, like, when the Chargers played against what the Chargers looked like against the Cowboys, right? Like, when you have those units where the Cowboys are obviously the worst defense in the league. The Patriots are not that. But is it going to be closer to that version of things, or is it going to be closer to what we saw against the Eagles what we saw against the Texans when it felt like the offense could barely operate. And so if we get something closer to what they look like against lower tier defenses, I do think that the Chargers defense is good enough in this game where it's going to keep them in it.
- [47:01]
Robert Mays
I actually agree. And honestly the one, the one thing that, for the Chargers offense, that if they can somehow keep some of this stuff protected, the one thing that I want to see from them schematically, a lot of deep over routes. Because I do think that the super deep over routes are. They're very simple, right? It's just like, can, can my guy outrun the corner? But one corners hate running with that because it's really, really difficult. But two, there's only so many quarterbacks in the NFL who can actually make those like 40 yard deep overthrows down the field. The Chargers got one of them. And one of the few things that the Buffalo Bills did really, really well against this New England Patriots defense in both of the matchups they played was a lot of those deep over routes like that. Brandon Cooks dropped one really early in the, in the last game that they played and they were able to hit some of those. So I do think tapping into that with a similarly talented quarterback is probably something you should be doing.
- [47:49]
Derek Classen
The other side of the ball is by far the more compelling side of the ball in this game. To me, it's the Patriots offense and the potential MVP quarterback going against a defense that I really think has just done so much good stuff this year. And there are a couple different things that jump out here when it comes to how you have to get after the Chargers and whether the Patriots are capable of doing that. They have a. The Patriots this year have a bottom seven rushing success rate against neutral and heavy boxes, but they're above average, slightly above average against light boxes on defense. And so we know how the Chargers want to play. And so if you were the Patriots, can you consistently run the ball into those sorts of looks? Because against this Chargers team, you almost have to like, that has to be a component to a successful game against the Chargers based on how they want to play defensively.
- [48:39]
Robert Mays
And I think too, to me, it's not just getting some of the consistent games where you can stay in second and fours and maybe Mentor doesn't get to throw a lot of his pressures and stuff. Some of the worst moments that I can remember just off the top of my head for this Chargers defense this year are at the second or third level. A safety takes a bad angle or he's late fitting in the alley or he just, or some DB just straight up misses a tackle. I do worry about that against like a guy like Trevion Henderson, like he, he can make you miss or like honestly Ramon Drake Stevenson, if he's healthy, like can just run over people when he's playing well. So I just, there is a chance that talent wise the Patriots backs could, could really make some plays against this back, against the back four, back five. Whether or not that they can get to the second or third level enough times, you know, we'll see.
- [49:20]
Derek Classen
In terms of throwing the ball in this game, you mentioned some of the pressure stuff. The Chargers don't blitz a ton but we talked about this on our season long award show. I think that some of the third down plans the Chargers have had this year with some of the mugged up looks that they're giving you and the fact that sometimes it is a cover zero, sometimes they're dropping out both defense tackles like it's. There's a lot of funky pressure plans from the Chargers this year and they've been really effective when they've done it. The Chargers this season have the second highest pressure rate in the league when bringing five or more per next gen. They don't blitz a lot but when they do they're effective. And may has faith the face the fourth most unblocked pressures in the NFL this year. And so that element of it when we get to those third downs, I do think that that's something that potentially and probably favors the Chargers. And then the aspect of this game that is most interesting to me is that the Patriots have thrown the ball down the field as well as any team in the entire NFL. Like that's what they want to do. The Chargers this season are the only team in the league to allow a negative EPA on passes of 10 plus air yards. 10, 10. Not, not, not 20, not 25. Not only deep throws. 10.
- [50:29]
Robert Mays
Yeah. Cause like 20, 20 or 25, it could be like oh well that's a small sample. Maybe you, you know, get a couple of picks played, some bad quarterbacks. Whatever it is, a 10 plus is like that's a pretty meaty sample.
- [50:39]
Derek Classen
And so the reason that there, there's only one team in the negatives there is when you're doing EPA per drop back on 10 plus area throws, it removes sacks. And so you're taking away the entire, an entire bucket of negative plays. The league average defensively in EPA allowed on on 10 plus area throws is 0.35. Drake May the potential MVP is at 0.27 for the season. The Chargers are in the negatives. That's how good they have been on any throws down the field whatsoever over the course of this season.
- [51:11]
Robert Mays
Which is crazy because that was their Achilles heel last year was the really good quarterbacks. Like, I remember Joe Burrow had a game like this. I think Lamar Jack maybe had a game like this where the good teams and good. Baker Mayfield, I think had a game against them like this. The good teams and offenses could throw it over their head. And that has really not been something that they've allowed this season, which I do think is. It has been an incredible point of growth for them.
- [51:33]
Derek Classen
You compare that to what they do on shorter throws. The Chargers have a below average past defense success rate on throws between 0 and 10 air yards this year. And so that to me is going to be the question with the Patriots. Can you methodically move the ball down the field? Can you run the ball consistently and are you willing to just bite it off in small chunks over the course of this game? Because you're playing against a defense where all they want to do is take that away from you. And so if the Patriots don't get bored with that sort of stuff, I do think that's probably their best path.
- [52:02]
Robert Mays
On offense, which I do think is interesting because May has been. Obviously, when you're the mvp, that your success rates are going to be pretty high. But they. When I, I think part of the success rates thing is like, yeah, you're, you're playing some, some middling defenses and, and all that Jazz. I do think May, for as good as he is, lives in the volatility sometimes. Like, he's great, still takes a lot of sacks and he's still willing to hold onto the ball and do some of that stuff. It's just that on the other end, you know that you're getting a lot of the deep throws, a lot of the plays outside of the pocket. If they can limit him to only like, you know, maybe two or three nice scrambles and then not really giving him half as many of the deep throws that he gets, it's like, okay, we're making him play a very different game than he's ever played. If you look at their schedule this year, the only team that is even really sort of close in terms of structure and like a half functional defense is the New Orleans game. They played in like week five or six and Drake May threw it over their heads pretty comfortably.
- [52:57]
Derek Classen
And so again, much, much better as we got a little bit longer.
- [52:59]
Robert Mays
That's the other thing. They're better now than they were at the time. But even if I'm just trying to find like, okay, who, who was a little bit similar that they played and again in that game they were throwing over their head, you can't really do that against the Chargers. Like, it's just, it's a very, very different test for him, which I think I'm incredibly excited to watch. Just as someone who is invested in his development.
- [53:18]
Derek Classen
Yeah, absolutely. I'm very much looking forward to that matchup. Specifically. I think it's one of my favorite ones in the entire weekend. Before we move on, let's take one more quick break.
- [53:30]
Robert Mays
Shipping, billing, admin, payroll, marketing.
- [53:33]
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- [55:06]
Derek Classen
All right, let's get to our last one here. Texans at Steelers Texans are three point favorites on the road in Pittsburgh. Texans are yet another one of those teams that won double digit games and feels like a potential threat in the playoffs. That it felt like their season was over that Monday night game against the Seahawks comes on the heels of them starting 03. It felt like they were completely dead in the water now they feel like as good a bet as any in like a very crowded AFC playoff field, which is kind of a crazy place to have reached. I'm not, I'm not sure. The Jags at least like, all right, it's year one of a new regime. Like the level of volatility that comes with that. Like them coming out of the buy and looking completely different team, like, fine. I know the Texans have a new offensive play caller, but I'm not sure there is any better representation of how weird this season is than the Houston Texans that we watched a month into the year, five weeks into the year are now in a place where, oh yeah, they could win two playoff games.
- [56:05]
Robert Mays
No. Cause even for as great as we all knew the defense was, even when they were losing games, the idea that a team could start oh and three and have a kind of not functional offense that's dead in the water for almost anybody like that, that's that you just don't really recover from that. And so the fact that they have and again not just like scraped into the playoffs and it's like, ah, they're going to get knocked out immediately. It's not like we feel about them like we feel about the Panthers or anything like that. Like, I not only point favorites on.
- [56:34]
Derek Classen
The road, that says a lot about the Steelers, right?
- [56:36]
Robert Mays
But. And it's like, but not only do I feel like the Texans can win this game, it's like if you told me they hold every opponent to less than 20 and they go and get to the super bowl. It's like I can see that world pretty comfortably with how good this defense is.
- [56:48]
Derek Classen
The Steelers side of this, I'll say this, the Steelers offense has made enough plays over the back half of the season. They made enough plays against the Ravens last week. Obviously they hit several explosives against the Lions in that game. I still am at a place where I think the Steelers offense is too limited for them to be one of those teams where it's like, oh, I could see them winning multiple playoff games. That's just hard for me to imagine based on the overall limitations they have on that side of the ball. Even with DK Metcalf back where I can like start talking myself into the Steelers a little bit, especially in this game, is that I feel like what they're doing defensively right now on a bunch of different fronts is it's headed in the exact opposite direction it typically is for the Steelers at this point in the season. Like usually by the time we get to January and we get to the first round of the playoffs, it feels like the Steelers defense is in a position where teams are just going to run all over them. We've seen that happen so many different times. It's a very simplistic defense. It's a defense that you can pick on. They feel outmanned by playoff caliber teams when we get to the postseason. When I watch the Steelers defense over the last month, the way the front is playing top to bottom, and obviously it's the guys that you know about, right? Like, Cam Hayward had an incredible game against the Ravens. He's playing at a really, really high level. Alex Highsmith has had a really nice season. What Nick Herbig is giving them is, like, the way they use him as like a weird spinner in that Ravens game. Like they're. And Keanu Benton is playing so much better. And he was early in the year.
- [58:20]
Robert Mays
I was ready to give up after, like, the first month. He was not playing well at all for the first month. And now he's playing like the guy that we thought he could be when we got excited about him.
- [58:27]
Derek Classen
You throw Derek Carman into the mix, like, I just think the front is playing so well. And so from a talent perspective, you're seeing that the dbs, I feel like that they've stumbled into have played really well. Like, James Pierce played such good football for this team this season. Joey Porter Jr. Is playing well. And so I think talent wise, top to bottom, I feel better about the state of the Steelers defense that I have over the last couple years. And I just think they're doing more interesting stuff on that side of the ball. Like, some of the simulated pressures that we're seeing from them, the unblocked pressures that they're creating, some of the variety on the back end that they're trotting out when it used to be, like, a pretty streamlined, simple defense. I just feel like the combination of talent and deployment with the Steelers defense, I feel so, so much better about that right now than I have in January in several years. And I think in this game specifically, it gives them, like, a very real shot to win.
- [59:21]
Robert Mays
It doesn't. It's funny that they've arrived there because it.
- [59:23]
Derek Classen
It.
- [59:24]
Robert Mays
It doesn't really feel like they arrived there naturally. Like, it's because, like, T.J. watt misses a little bit of time. So we got to start doing some weirder stuff with our front. And then even in the back end, they had a lot of different injuries there where they're moving guys out, who's in the nickel, who's playing safety and I think that they finally like figured out what they want to do with Jalen Ramsey. And I think being, honestly, even just being more comfortable just like leaving Joey Porter to his own devices. He is like, there are not that many corners in the league where I do feel comfortable just like leaving him on your best guy. Don't think about it. Joey Porter is like one of those four or five guys. Like, he's really, really damn good. And so in this game, specifically, like him, him versus Collins is going to be really cool.
- [59:57]
Derek Classen
And I think when the Texans have the ball in this game, we can just dig into it. Like, can the Steelers front win this game, to me becomes the most important.
- [60:03]
Robert Mays
Question because you've said that pretty much every time that we talked about the Steelers. I think in this game they can like, the Texans offensive line is mildly better than it was at the start of the season. It is still not good enough to where I would pick them over this Steelers defensive line.
- [60:16]
Derek Classen
I think they' real strides. I still think it's an offensive line that a good front can pick on.
- [60:21]
Robert Mays
Exactly. When you are a team that is the caliber of, of the Steelers, I do think that you can pick on them. And so I, I struggle to see, especially if like, I think that C.J. stroud is a really good quarterback. I still think he's had a lot of good moments this year. Especially like, I think people were, both of us included after that Seattle game a little bit ready to be like, okay, this year is a little bit shocked. I do think that there are still moments this year that because he's getting heated up a lot, he'll give you, like, he'll get to the top of his drop, he'll have something predetermined and he'll try to give you one. And with the way that the Steelers are like mixing stuff up right now, I do think that there's a chance that he gives you two or three opportunities.
- [60:58]
Derek Classen
That to me, becomes the most interesting question on this side of the ball. I think the Steelers, I think the Texans are going to have a hard time running the ball in this game because the Texans have had a hard time running the ball in a lot of games. And I think the Steelers, again, their front and their run defense period is playing much better. What they do on the back end, to me, becomes the most important question when the Texans have the ball. The Steelers still play a lot of man coverage in this game, specifically. I think it's something I'd probably go away from because the Texans are top five. Stroud is in epaper drop back against man coverage this year and that's where they find a lot of their explosives. And I think those plays you're talking about where we can give you one. I want to change the picture on the back end. Like I want to be doing that as often as possible if I'm the Steelers in this game.
- [61:38]
Robert Mays
And it's because if you're playing man coverage and maybe even bringing extra bodies or whatever it is one, it kind of eliminates CJ Stroud really having to read anything. It's a lot of like okay, I've got two skyscrapers on the outside with like Jaden Higgins and Nico Collins. I can just pick whoever I want and throw one. And then as I've talked about like man coverage a lot before, it is a lot of can you just place the ball where you need to and add touch. CJ Stroud is phenomenal at that. Like if he knows where the ball is going, the touch that he can put on all of these throws is really impressive. Whereas I think sometimes against the zone stuff like he has good velocity, but it's not quite the same as some of the guys like Justin Herbert or Trevor Lawrence when they just get to the top and they rip it. And so I do think making him get to the top of his drop read stuff out, it's not that he can't do it. It's that knowing that he's going to get heated up sometimes he just doesn't want to do it and he wants the ball to be out. And I think when it's zone coverage versus man coverage, that's where you get guys getting hands on the ball.
- [62:31]
Derek Classen
I think you've said that you told this said this to me earlier today. But Joey Porter Jr. Against Nico Collins is I can't wait. Is like one of the cooler like one on one matchups at the entire.
- [62:41]
Robert Mays
Yeah, that is truly like big man versus big man. We're both going to be physical. We're going to try to dunk on each other. Let's see how this goes. And we know that Nico Collins can do it. We know that Joey Porter Jr. Is one of the best like man on man coverage corners in the league. So I'm that matchup could could decide the game in the 10 or so instances the Steelers try that.
- [62:58]
Derek Classen
Here's the problem. Even if the Steelers defense is able to muck up this game a little bit, do we have any faith that the Steelers offense is going to be able to do anything of consequence against.
- [63:11]
Robert Mays
The Texans defense, maybe DK Metcalf has the game of his life. Other than that, I really don't know how I'm supposed to see it because I think, you know, I think the argument you would. You would maybe want to make in terms of, you know, the way that the Steelers have run the ball well against certain teams at points in the season. But if you look at since Week 10, the Texans have a 68.9% defensive rushing success rate. It's the best in the league by 3%. I have a feeling they're going to be able to get into the backfield against the Steelers offense. And then when we think about what the identity of the Steelers offense is, it's a lot of the short throws, it's Robert Rogers is throwing bubbles, he's throwing flat routes, he's throwing bullet slants, whatever it is. And so I went and looked at how often our team's throwing 5 yards or shorter. The Steelers do it 60.4% of the time, which is second only to Denver, which is not surprising when you watch the way that they play. And I think when we watch the Texans defense, you feel anecdotally like, oh, well, they're good at stopping that. But then you look at some of the numbers. 4.2 yards allowed per drop back on. On those throws. Best in the NFL. 65.4% success rate. Best in the NFL. One of the only three teams above 60% with the Bills and the Broncos. 3.31 yards after the catch allowed on those best in the NFL. They swarm, they hit you, they don't give you anything easy. I have a hard time seeing how they move the ball in this game.
- [64:28]
Derek Classen
I unfortunately land in a pretty similar place. Like, I just. Again, you think about all those flat routes, all those instances of him trying to get rid of the ball as quickly as possible and get the ball out in space. This Texans defense, they destroy space. They swallow it up as well as anybody does. And so I think if they can't get a little bit going on the ground, maybe like, you know, couple of those seam shots to Friarmouth, like picking, trying to get something happening in the middle of the defense. But it's just hard for me to imagine what the path is for the Steelers offense in this game because again.
- [64:59]
Robert Mays
Like, I think in a lot of other games, you can be like, oh, well, maybe they throw a couple to DK Metcalfe. This is the best corner duo in the NFL right now. Like, it's. You're probably not going to get Those.
- [65:08]
Derek Classen
Over under 39 and a half in this game, which honestly feels a little high kind of. It, it's honestly higher than I thought it was going to be.
- [65:16]
Robert Mays
Because when I think about this game, I'm imagining like it's like, yeah, 20 to 13. Like that's kind of how I imagine this game.
- [65:22]
Derek Classen
20 to 17 is where I was put it. And, and 17 might be too many touchdowns.
- [65:26]
Robert Mays
It might.
- [65:26]
Derek Classen
Yeah, it might, it might be a 17, 13 sort of game. It does feel like we might be what we might be looking at here. All right, that is all we've got for today. If you have not listened to part one of our wild card preview, that is available in your feeds right now. And we will be back on Saturday night breaking down both the Panthers Rams game and the Packers Bears game live on YouTube. Those shows will be available in your podcast feed, so if you cannot catch them live, do not worry. That will be to you wherever you get your podcast on Sunday morning. For now, that's all we got. Appreciate you guys listening. We'll talk to you soon.
- [66:17]
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- [66:36]
Robert Mays
And the best part? They accept Discover.
- [66:38]
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Except Discover in a little place like this?
- [66:41]
Robert Mays
I don't think so.
- [66:42]
Sponsor/Advertisement Voice
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- [66:42]
Robert Mays
Oh yeah, huh? Discover's accepted where I like to shop.
- [66:46]
Derek Classen
Come on baby, get with the times.
- [66:48]
Sponsor/Advertisement Voice
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- [66:49]
Robert Mays
So we shouldn't get the parachute paint pants. These are making a comeback, I think. Discover is accepted at 99% of places.
- [66:58]
Derek Classen
That take credit cards nationwide, based on.
- [67:00]
Robert Mays
The February 2025 Nielsen report.
- [67:02]
Derek Classen
Amazon, Pizza Hut, Audible.
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Robert Mays
How'd they get so big without soul destroying complexity?
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Derek Classen
On Founders Mentality to CEO Sessions. We're gonna find out who's number one is the customer.
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Derek Classen
My Walmart? If you looked at Audible, it was kind of like girl growth, growth and then growth.
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Derek Classen
Join me, Jimmy Allen, partner of Bain and Company to hear surprising stories from.
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Robert Mays
The world's greatest leaders.
- [67:29]
Derek Classen
Subscribe to Founders Mentality to CEO Sessions.