← The Athletic Hockey Show
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- [02:02]
Jesse Granger
This is the Athletic Hockey Show.
- [02:16]
Max Boltman
Hey everybody. Max Boltman here alongside Mark Lazarus and Jesse Granger for another episode of the Athletic Hockey Show. And Laza. I want to start with this because we're recording this late Sunday night. Nathan McKinnon has a couple of goals to put him in first place in the NHL scoring leaders and after that you pointed this out, it is just young player bonanza. It's Macklin Celebrini, Connor Bedard, Leo Carlson. The new era is here in the NHL.
- [02:43]
Jesse Granger
Well yeah, as of just like 20 minutes ago, as we're recording this, Connor Bedard was leading the league in scoring, Macklin Celebrini was tied with Nathan McKinnon for second and Leo Carlson was alone in third. And they're, they're all just so red hot right now listen to this. Celebrity is on a 10 game point streak. He's got nine goals and 10 assists in those 10 games. Leo Carlson is on a nine game point streak. He's got six goals and 11 assists in that span. Bedard is on an eight game point streak. He's got seven goals and 11 assists. They are just utterly dominant right now. They're playing great at both ends of the ice, all three of these guys. It's so exciting to see them all taking up. I feel like we've been doing the celebrity versus Bedard thing forever here. But it's so exciting as a hockey fan just to see them all taking this leap at the exact same time. Celebrini, as good as he was last year, wasn't this. And Bedard, you know, you could talk about he was minus 100 or whatever it was a couple years ago, he wasn't this. And Leo Carlson's been like, oh, he's a good solid two way player. He wasn't this. All of these guys are taking the leap into superstardom at the exact same time. And it's just really cool.
- [03:42]
Jesse
I watched Leo Carlson live here in Vegas last night and he scored his.
- [03:46]
Jesse Granger
Oh my God, that goal he scored was ridiculous.
- [03:48]
Jesse
The move to the backhand and it was his 20th point of the season and someone put the stat. He scored his 20th or he scored it in like late February last year was when he hit this point. Pretty ridiculous. And to me, what's the most exciting about these three players taking this leap is their teams are winning. And in a league, I feel like the NHL. The parody is great, but I think that it also is maybe of all the major professional sports, it is the hardest to improve. To go from being bad to good or to go from being good to bad. And we just see the same teams every year. I am more so pumped that the Ducks look legit. San Jose is clearly better than they've been. The Blackhawks are winning more games than we've seen them win in quite some time. The youth movement and maybe a shift in the landscape of the NHL has made the beginning of this season so exciting.
- [04:40]
Jesse Granger
That Leo Carlson goal before he scored, he won three separate puck battles along the walls. Like, this is what's so cool about us. We knew Celebrini was this great two way player, but Bedard, he, he had that goal in. Where was I last? I'm so. I have such a long trip. I was just on.
- [04:53]
Mark Lazarus
I don't remember where I was.
- [04:53]
Jesse Granger
Calgary. I think I was in Calgary. That's right, Calgary. The Hawks have a three nothing lead. There's two minutes left to go in the game. It's coasting time, right? Absolute coast city. Morgan Frost has the puck at his own blue line. And Connor Bedard just says, screw it and he attacks him. He takes the puck right off his stick, then just darts at like, you know, 24 miles an hour towards the net. Makes a ridiculous backhand fake into tuck in the forehand like it was. This is complete package play. And that's what we're seeing from all three of them, is these are becoming complete hockey players. And they're all, you know, 20 years old, 19 years old, and there's. It's not just them going out and scoring a bunch. They're playing real hockey. Connor Bedard's on pace to be like +50 this year with the Chicago Blackhawks. That is not a small feat. It's just incredible what all three of these guys are doing.
- [05:39]
Max Boltman
And you've talked kind of tongue in cheek about the way people talked about Bedard and celebrating a year ago.
- [05:44]
Jesse
Right.
- [05:44]
Max Boltman
And that it was this, you know, but to the extent that there was a gap, that that's what it was. It's. That celebrity was a more complete player. You were noticing him on shifts that, you know, he wasn't even necessarily getting a scoring chance on. But Dard now is a guy that you're noticing almost every time he's on the ice. And that is the difference. And that's the step that he's made. You're talking about the same thing with Jesse or, sorry, with Leo Carlson. Jesse, you know, he's that kind of player. So that's the key for all of them. That's the key to the staying power. And it's why, yeah, if Connor Bedard was in this place in the NHL, scoring wise, but the Blackhawks were horrible because he was cheating for offense. I don't think we're doing this segment right now, frankly. But it's because all three of them have done it this way.
- [06:20]
Jesse Granger
And it's, you know, you're. You're, you know, Jeff Blashell, who you covered for a number of years in Detroit. I don't know if he saw this was one of his buzzwords back then. He always talks about winning hockey, right?
- [06:28]
Max Boltman
Oh, yeah.
- [06:28]
Jesse Granger
That's his umbrella term for good habits. And all he keeps talking about is how Connor Bedard is playing winning hockey. And all three of these guys are doing it. They're so engaged, they're becoming harder on the puck. They're More aggressive in the corners. They're. They're creating plays for other people. They're creating plays for themselves. And now I look, look, their analytics are still a little ghastly. I think these are guys that are overperforming their numbers and are capable of that. Like we saw Patrick Kane for years, always had like a 40% XG and it didn't matter because you could just score from anywhere. Celebrini is at a 41% XG. He's at a 67% actual goals for Bedard's at a 44.5 XG. He's at a 63% actual goals for now. Leo Carlson, he's on a real hockey team. He's got Chris Kreider and Troy Terry on his line. He's got a 57xG and a 63 goal. So we're all talking about celebrity and Bedard. Leo Carlson might be the most impressive of the bunch right now.
- [07:18]
Jesse
He's been so good. And I mentioned the game Saturday night here in Vegas. The Ducks came in. I came away from that game feeling completely different about Carlson as a player and the Ducks as a team because I looked at that game as okay, so the Golden Knights had just had a whole horrific performance the game before. They were not happy. And this is a veteran, strong, heavy team that when they have a bad game, they almost always come out the next game and are awesome. And then you add in the fact that it's a young Ducks team, that they're leading the Pacific Division. And the Golden Knights know that the Golden Knights have owned this division for forever now and they wanted to assert themselves. And I expected this. This is a young Ducks team that's skilled. I expect the Golden Knights to come in and bully them and it didn't happen at all. Leo Carlson, he's not just skilled, he's big and strong. He's. He's tough to beat along the walls. And he came in, he scored two goals. He had a three point night. He assisted on Jacob Truba's overtime winner that, that Ducks team and they did it without Lukas do stall in net. It was Peter Marzika net, who was excellent, but he's not even their star in net. This, this Ducks team, I, I believe in them a lot more after that game because like I said, all the circumstances set up for that to be the game where the Ducks are, where they turn into the pumpkin. The. The. They finally aren't this team that, that's been putting up seven goals and they didn't just play with the Golden Knights, they were the better team for. For 60 minutes.
- [08:45]
Max Boltman
It's interesting if, you know, our friends at BetMGM have the heart odds. You know, it's early, but as of Sunday night, the heart odds, Macklin celebrating plus 2000, Connor Bedard plus 3000. Those are longer shot, but still fairly.
- [08:56]
Jeremy Rutherford
High on the list.
- [08:57]
Max Boltman
And to the extent that they're long shot, I imagine it's probably because if those teams don't make the playoffs, it's going to be hard for voters to vote for them. It's still ahead of Sidney Crosby and Austin Matthews.
- [09:07]
Jesse
Laz.
- [09:07]
Max Boltman
Like, that is the territory that these guys have put themselves in.
- [09:10]
Jesse Granger
Well, if you look, I mean, you know, when you see what the Ducks are doing, when you see what the Blackhawks. The Blackhawks have been. They have had one bad game all year. They played 16 games. They got blitzed by Winnipeg in Winnipeg to start this trip and it was terrible. They have been basically leading or tied entering the third period of just about every single other game they played. Like, this is a legit hockey team that's playing good hockey and Bedard is so much at the forefront of that. Spencer Knight has been spectacular and Lukas Do Stahl in Anaheim has been spectacular. But they're being led from ahead here by, you know, guys who are barely fully grown adults. And that's, you know, so it's easy to look at that and go like, well, those are the most valuable people around their team right now. Like Sidney Crosby has, you know, getting Malkin with him, right. Auston Matthews has Willie Nylander with him. These guys are doing it as young guys and it's, it goes back to what Jesse said. It's just so exciting to have new blood in the league. And it's odd to say that the Ducks and Blackhawks have new blood because when I came in the started doing this job, they were the old blood. But it's been a long time. The Blackhawks have not made the playoffs properly since 2017. It's been a long time. So it's just exciting that we're not talking about the same teams, the same players, year after year. We're always talking about how we want to see some new blood. Well, we're getting it and these young guys are leading the way.
- [10:21]
Jesse
I'll say this, it's exciting now, but with how dominant they are and how good they look, I don't know how long it's going to be until we're sick of talking about these guys because we're. For 10 years from now I feel like we're going to be Talking about these three players dominating the league for 10 years and when are we going to get someone else other than these three? Because it, I mean they, they look so good and, and it's it there. This is not a fluke like you mentioned. This is not a. Sometimes you just go around the net and you get a hot point streak and all of a sudden the goals are going in. That is not what this is at all. This is three elite players leading teams and driving offense.
- [10:55]
Max Boltman
Well, go ahead and sign me up for that problem. Let's take a quick break right there. We're going to come back with Jeremy Rutherford to talk about a team who has had not a lot going right to start this year, the St. Louis Blues. Be right back.
- [11:09]
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- [13:49]
Max Boltman
All right, we're back. And we are joined now by Jeremy Rutherford in St. Louis and J.R. like, we've never seen the Blues start slow before, but I do think this has been a particularly frustrating one for people in St. Louis, right? I mean they, they, they lose 10 out of 13 toward the end of that, right, as they're starting to look like maybe they're getting right. You know, they beat Edmonton, they shut out Buffalo, they blow a two goal lead yesterday and fall flat again. So I guess let me just ask it to you, like, what is going on there?
- [14:17]
Jeremy Rutherford
Yeah, this has been something here in St. Louis and not that anybody else around the league was projecting the Blues to be cup contenders or even get a couple rounds into the playoffs. But I think a lot of people here in St. Louis especially thought that with what they did after the Four nations tournament last year, winning the 12 straight games, sneaking into the playoffs, taking Winnipeg, the President's trophy team, to the brink of Game 7 and should have won it. If not for 26 on 5 goals, they would have been playing Dallas in the second round. You upgrade at center, bringing in Pew suiter Nick Buxtad. When I say upgrade, add depth to that position and the strength of your team is the goaltending with Jordan Bennington, who did so well at the Four nations and could be Team Canada's goalie for the Olympics and Joel Hofer is the backup. It's a pretty good tandem and this season has been anything but what people here in St. Louis expected. Everything that I just mentioned as a possible strength for this team coming in, it's been the exact opposite. And so, Max, you know, the Blues were in Detroit. They were up four nothing on the Red Wings, and they coughed up that game they lost last night with 1.6 seconds to go in regulation. Seattle tied it and then one in overtime. So it's been just one difficult loss and one tough situation after the other for the blues.
- [15:42]
Jesse Granger
Now, J.R. you wrote not that long ago. The story that no fan ever wants to read is that it's really not this bad. The underlying numbers are great. So I. I took a dive into some of these underlying numbers. They're hilarious. Like, this team has given up A League worst 3.88 goals against per game despite being top 10 in shots against per game. So, like, they're suppressing shots but giving up all these goals. And you look at some of the individual statistics. It's hilarious. Alexey Torychenko, in nine games has a 52% expected goal share. The Blues have been outscored 8 to 1 with him on the ice. The save percentage with Torpchenko on the ice is 789. Cam Fowler is a 52XG and they've been outscored 18 to 9 with him. How do you explain that? I mean, the goaltending is awful. Is it just the goaltending being awful?
- [16:29]
Jeremy Rutherford
Yes, it's not just the goaltending.
- [16:31]
Mark Lazarus
Sorry.
- [16:32]
Jeremy Rutherford
It is a lot more than the goaltending. And the best way that I can explain it, like if when you talk about putting, you know, your eye test to the numbers that you just mentioned, it's a situation where you will see the Blues go down, set up shop in the offensive zone. They'll have a couple good opportunities, maybe a backdoor, and the forward at the net doesn't have his stick down or he can't bear down and convert the goal. And they'll have a couple great scoring opportunities, won't score, and then the puck goes back the other way. And literally two seconds after the opposition crosses the blue line, it's in the back of their net. Now it's defense. It's. It's the forwards getting back. It's the goaltending. It's. It's been everything. It's just hard to comprehend how some of those numbers can be so good, but yet the Blues just aren't converting. And maybe you can easily chalk it up to, well, there's just not enough talent or enough skill and they're. They're just not executing. And, you know, that could be the case. But, you know, the goaltending for number one has been Pretty good the past couple years. And you look at what it is now, an.862 save percentage.862. That's 31st in the league. And it's been both goaltenders that have had trouble, Jordan Bennington and Joel Hofer. You know, it's a situation where it's almost like, which one do you go to? We just went to this guy and, you know, he got run out of the game and, you know, now we're going back to Joel Hofer and he's having trouble stopping a beach ball. It's just been very difficult to comprehend how this team became this way so quickly.
- [18:07]
Jesse
You've mentioned the goaltending multiple times and I just, I don't understand going into this year, I, my hopes could not have been higher for, for this gold goalie tandem. And I do the goalie tier story where I talk to a handful of goalie coaches around the league and retired goalies, and these are people that know what they're talking about better than I do, better than anyone else does when it comes to goaltending. And they were all in on the St. Louis goaltending. Bennington got high score after high score. I had people saying that they think he could actually be in the Vezina conversation for the first time just because they thought Montgomery was going to bring a more defensive kind of style of play to this team and maybe we'd see more consistency than we typically see out of Bennington, even at his best. And then I've got other guys that, like, I had, I think, 37 goalies in my list and I had plenty of coaches ask me, why is Joe Hofer not on this list? Like, he's one of the best 30 goalies in the world. He would have be, he'd be starting for some teams, but he's just happens to be stuck behind a stud. In Bennington, all of this. They have one of the best goalie coaches in the world, Dave Alexander. He's going to be the coach for Team Canada in the Olympics. He's, he's been an excellent goalie coach in St. Louis. Everything was set up to be so good and then it's just, it's just been a disaster. Like, do you think they need to turn to Hofer more or do you think they need to maybe stop with the rotating and give it to Bennington? And maybe that gives him confidence. Like, if it was up to you, how do you handle it?
- [19:30]
Jeremy Rutherford
JR Well, I think that you still have two goal good goaltenders and I think that both of these guys are capable of turning it around. But the team game has to be better. But these goalies have to come up with not just a big save, but, you know, a number of saves to give the team confidence that they can go out and play their game, too. But it's just all the Blues being a lack of connectedness. And, you know, I think when you talk about the expectations for this pair and you're right, you know, talk to similar people who have very high opinion of these two goalies. But, you know, Jordan Bennington, you know, that's a lot of talk and pressure and expectation about him potentially being the team Canada goalie, right. So he knows that he's got to come out and have a great start to the season. And Joel Hofer, I'm going to go back to, I think it was against the Chicago Blackhawks last. Hofer served up that pizza in front of the net. The Blackhawks score. And from that moment on when he gave that up, it was about the next three to four games where he just couldn't stop anything. The teams were scoring on their first and second shots of the game, much less their. Their first shot. And then, so then it became a huge storyline. Neither goalie is performing, you know, the team's not performing, and then it just, you know, snowballed from there. So, you know, I personally think that these two guys still can get the job done, but it's up to Jim Montgomery to do his job, which he is doing. I think he does a great job in terms of getting these guys back playing together like they were after the Four nations tournament. It's just completely disappeared. Jim Montgomery, as you guys know, is a pretty honest guy, and he said that. I can't fathom, can't understand how it's hard to carry things over from year to year. We all know that. But how little has been carried over from last season.
- [21:25]
Jesse Granger
So in the Central Division, like, it feels like Colorado, Winnipeg, Dallas, those teams are just etched in stone, right? And it was supposed to be St. Louis contending for that next spot. What is the organizational level of concern? I know the Blues are kind of the poster children for you can come back from a really bad first two months of the season. They're everyone's, you know, idealized version of coming back from something like this. But Utah is looking really good. Chicago is looking very competitive. They're in a playoff spot right now. They've won three in a row. Minnesota still there. Nashville is Nashville. But, like, beyond the locker room, what is the organizational Level of concern that, oh crap, this, this division is passing us by here.
- [21:59]
Jeremy Rutherford
Well, Mark, this is about the time of year that Doug Armstrong has a State of the Union. He's done it the past two years. We thought that maybe this week would be the third year in a row where in November Doug Armstrong is doing a State of the Union. And no word of it yet, but I have to feel that Doug Armstrong knows that he is going to have to break up parts of this team. There's a lot of focus on the core here in St. Louis. When you talk about the corps, it's Jordan Cairo, it's Robert Thomas, you have some of the aging guys in a Braden Shen, you have Colton Pareco on the back end, you have Jordan Bennington, Pavel Buchanavich, you know, considered part of that core, but he just signed a new six year deal that kicked in this year and he is not producing at all. Like his name, if you're putting together a list of guys who are not producing, is at the top of the list. And so I think if you look at the calendar and say, okay, it's November, Doug's probably got to wait a couple months, you know, leading into the trade deadline to be able to break this thing up. I don't know that he's going to be able to wait that long. The Blues, Everybody here in St. Louis knows they're trying to compete, be a contender. You know, they're not tearing it down. It's not going to be a rebuild. They're not going to draft top five during this entire situation. But at the same time they're going to try to put a playoff team together and develop the young players like the Snuggeroods, Dvorskis, so on and so forth. That's a tough assignment in the NHL, it really is. But that's the way they elected to go. So they've got to live with what they're trying to do. You know, if it's go one round in the playoffs and it's picking 18th in the draft, then that's what it is. That, that's, that they're, they're, they're welcome to that. But when you get into a situation where now it's two or three years in a row, you've gotten off to the tough start. You have to have the State of the Union every single November. I really think the Blues have to believe at this point when I say blues, I'm talking about management, that maybe everyone was kind of fooled with what this team did after the Four nations run, they had their backs against the wall. They knew the point total that they had to get to get into the playoffs. They did it. They really played well. You have to give them a ton of credit. But I think it probably fooled some people into thinking that you could add to that group and come back and make the playoffs this year. And it just obviously doesn't look like it's going to be the case.
- [24:11]
Max Boltman
Well, I want to go back to what you said about the young players because that is one of the moves that they made over the weekend. You know, Logan Mayo had struggled. He gets sent down to Springfield, but that's an important player there. I mean, maybe not quite yet, but kind of maybe more symbolically important after they, you know, Zach Bullduke has the great rookie year last year, they trade him away for Logan Mayu and now here we are, you know, November 10th and he's in Springfield.
- [24:35]
Jeremy Rutherford
Yes, that is a huge storyline here in St. Louis. And with Logan Mayo getting assigned to the American Hockey League this morning, it's going to be a big one as this week continues because people were already on Doug Armstrong and the management team for making the trade, sending Zach Bolduc to the Montreal Canadiens. They felt like they had a plethora of, of wingers, of young wingers. When you talk about the Jake Neighbors and the Snuggeroods and Daborski being a center, you know, another forward, young guy in that group, you have Otto Stenberg. Just a number of young guys from these last few drafts that they could afford to trade Zach Bolduc and they wanted to bring in the young right shot defenseman who was NHL ready. And Logan Mayhew had spent a ton of time in the American Hockey League and seemed to prove just about all he could in the American Hockey League. So they made the trade for him. Well, they did that. And the hole immediately on the third line, right side with Zach Bolduc leaving was glaring and they didn't have anybody to fill that. So that was the concern early on is like, who do you have to fill Zach Bolduc's spot? Well, now not only do you have a hole to fill, you have don't have a defenseman because the defenseman you acquired in the deal is now in Springfield, Massachusetts. So, you know, all the criticism that the Blues were getting for making this trade initially has been magnified with Maillew vastly underperforming and now he needs what Doug Armstrong is calling a reset.
- [26:00]
Jesse
JR you mentioned Bushniewicz is maybe at the top of that list of guys who aren't producing another guy who, I mean he is producing Jordan Kyro. He's second on the team in goals, one behind neighbors. He's I think tied for the team lead in points. And yet the other night he, he, he sat up there in the press box and that's not something we see from a player of his caliber. I guess for Anyone not following St. Louis super closely, what happened there and what do you expect out of obviously one of the most talented players on the team moving forward.
- [26:26]
Jeremy Rutherford
Yeah, Jesse. And you know his name came up in trade talks right over the, the summer and you know where the blues going to trade him before his no trade clause kicked in on July 1. He and Robert Thomas signed those deals a few years ago and turning 27 years old and their time in the league, those no trades kicked in on July 1st. More talk obviously about Jordan Cairo than there was about Robert Thomas. But with Kyru, the interesting thing about him getting scratched to me guys is this and I think this, you know, people who follow whatever team around the league, I think this is what interesting what Jim Montgomery said is that you can look at the stat sheet and you can say, okay, well this guy isn't producing, he should be the healthy scratch. Well, what Jim Montgomery told us was that each guy has a role on the team and they have certain traits that they need to bring to the team for the team to be successful. And if they're not performing those traits then that's what we're missing. And that guy needs to realize and I'm going to use Kyro as the example here obviously because he was the healthy scratch. But what Mani said was that he creates anxiety with his skating for the opposition and he does. You guys have seen him. Once he gets the wheels going, it just makes people, you know, tremble, right? You're like, oh, he's going to be beat me wide, he's going to beat me up the middle. And he wasn't doing that. And that's one of his, you know, that's one of his, you know, best attributes. And so he had an eight game point streak early in the season. If you're going to pick a guy to healthy scratch a couple nights ago, you know, it would have been Pavel Buchanavich, it would not have been Jordan Cairo. But they want Jordan Kyru to understand that you can do X, Y and Z and you're not doing it, we're going to sit you and hopefully when you come back you'll be ready to play like that. Now maybe they have to address that same situation with Pavlov Buchnevich, but in terms of fulfilling the role that you have on the team, they felt like Kyru was a guy who was coming up short on that and that's why he got the healthy scratch.
- [28:21]
Max Boltman
They do have Calgary up next on the schedule. I mean, if that's any consolation, that should be a game that St. Louis has a chance to get right in, especially at home. But we will see. Thanks so much for doing this, jr. We're going to take a quick break. Be right back with Peter Ball to talk about the Metro.
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11 Pro for well qualified credits end and balance due. If you pay off early or cancel contact us Hi, this is Robert Mase from the Athletic. This time of year always gets busy, but that's when having Peloton in my life really makes a difference. The new Peloton Cross Training Tread plus, powered by Peloton iq, helps me fit in great workouts no matter what's on my schedule. It's Peloton's most advanced equipment yet, giving you real time guidance and endless ways to move. Peloton IQ plans your workouts, tracks your progress, and corrects your form so you can train smarter and make the most of your time. Let yourself run, lift, flex, push and go. Explore the new peloton cross training Tread plus@onepelaton.com All right, we're back and we're joined now by Peter Baugh. And Peter, I want to start with the team that you cover probably the most closely. You were in Detroit this week covering the Rangers and They looked really good. That's been a common story for them. When they go on the road this season, then they go home and they look like kind of another team entirely. So I want to start there and get your take on what is behind this whole Jekyll Hyde dynamic for the Rangers. Based on what arena they're playing in.
- [30:37]
Mark Lazarus
It's truly one of the stranger starts to a season I've covered. I think a lot of last year I was banging the drum that the Rangers weren't a very good hockey team. A lot of people maybe thought they were going to turn it around after their, their middle of the season skid. Thought that this was a good team, just kind of going through a tough stretch and I was very adamant that I didn't think they were very good this year. I don't think they're an amazing team, but I feel completely differently. I think that this is a, a solid hockey team and, and maybe that's just because the most recent time I saw them in person was on the road when they looked really solid against the Red Wings. But a lot of their underlying numbers are really strong. I just think this is a team that is really struggling to finish and it's, it's hard to. Hard to explain where is the offense.
- [31:24]
Jesse Granger
Going to come from here? Because I feel like, you know, point per game guys are growing on trees this year. Every team's got a couple of them at this stage of the season and the Rangers don't have anyone even close. Like they got like. I think Adam Fox is their leading scorer, something like 11 points.
- [31:36]
Mark Lazarus
Yeah. Taylor Radish is their leading goal scorer right now.
- [31:38]
Jesse Granger
Yeah, that's not ideal. So like, where not like, you know, you say that the underlying numbers say they're better than this and they just can't finish. Where is the finish going to come from? Who is going to lead this team offensively?
- [31:48]
Mark Lazarus
That's, that's a great question and I think one that, I mean, the obvious answer is Artemi Panarin. It needs to start with Panarin and he hasn't been very good this year. He's not finishing his chances as, as frequently as he was last year. He's generating a lot of offensive looks, but they're not all going in the net other than in two games. He had a big game in Detroit that Max and I were at together and he had a big game in Montreal in October, but it hasn't been working for Panera. And he, he mentioned all our co worker Vince, Vince Mercagliano, that that some of the pressure maybe of, of the contract is weighing on him, of, of him being on the last year of his deal. He said he doesn't think about it during the games, but he was kind of musing that maybe that's on his mind, but he's, when you look at sources of offense, it's got to be him and it's got to be J.T.
- [32:33]
Jesse
Miller.
- [32:34]
Mark Lazarus
Those are the two guys that are most capable of bringing offense or at least have the career highs to, to show that, that it is. The Rangers certainly hope is in there somewhere.
- [32:45]
Jesse Granger
For the record, in the athletic hockey fantasy team, I protected both J.T. miller and Artemi Panarin and I'm 0 in 5, so.
- [32:52]
Max Boltman
Well, J.T. miller does seem like one of the obvious answers to that question.
- [32:55]
Jesse Granger
Right?
- [32:55]
Max Boltman
I mean, that's, this is why they traded for him, because he could score a certain kind of offense that they're missing, you know, be hard around the net. I, I, J.T. miller's been, you know, one of the highest scoring players in this league over the last several years, so he certainly would be one of the candidates to drive that offense. But, you know, Peter, at times this year I've tried to kind of draw parallels between the Rangers and the Winnipeg jets in terms of reliance on the goalie, you know, the forward situation. They have some good top six lines, but maybe not the world's deepest team. I know some might debate that on the jets side, you know, but outside of really Adam Lowry, I don't really find their bottom six that threatening either. But it's. So the jets are finding a way to get it done. The Rangers really haven't. And I look at that and I just say, well, yeah, they don't have their Kyle Conner, they don't have their Mark Scheifele production yet from, from Panera and Miller, who to me are the obvious guys.
- [33:43]
Mark Lazarus
Yeah. And I mean the, the interesting thing, and this is a much more complicated thing than I'm about to, to make it sound like, but it's, it's funny about them wanting net front scoring and all of that. Chris Kreider does a lot of those things and he's off to a really good start down in Anaheim. Now, I think it, to be fair to the Rangers, they don't get Vladislav Gaov without shipping away Crider. There's a lot of. It was going to be hard to, to repair some of the stuff that went wrong with Kreider and Truba last year. And so I think that that's probably an unfair thing to say, but at the same time, they're definitely missing goal scorers and I think some of this is going to balance out, but I think that ultimately it's a big concern if they make the playoffs. That is, I think, perhaps the biggest thing that would separate them from being a true contender.
- [34:36]
Jesse
What do you think about this team outside of, like, the lack of goal scoring? The. You mentioned the underlying numbers. I think they're like third in the league in goals, like expected goal share there. All the underlying metrics say this team is like dominating possession, dominating the chances. And yet the games I've watched, I feel like Jonathan Quick has been excellent in that Igor Sterkin has been excellent, and yet they're giving up a bunch of goals and they're not winning games. Is it just the lack of goal scoring or do you think that there are other issues to like, like you said, you think they're a better team. Do you think they're better everywhere?
- [35:05]
Mark Lazarus
I think defensively they are infinitely better from last season. Last season was, at points, just a total mess on the defensive side. And this year they, they look a lot sharper under Mike Sullivan. I've, I've been really impressed with what Mike Sullivan has brought. I think the team is more structured. I think it's defending harder, and maybe some of that is contributing to the offense. Maybe they're. They're not taking as many chances and, and getting as many golden looks. But I think that defensively this is a much better team than it was a year ago.
- [35:39]
Max Boltman
And the guy we were talking about walking out of the building, Peter, that night Friday was Will Borgen, who I think's, you know, been obviously tremendous for them. That's why they lock him up. But I think that can be their identity. You go get Gavrikov and now you got this Susie Borgon pair that I, you know, on paper, I wasn't sure what to make of it, seeing it live. I think it's exactly what you want your second pair to be. So I think that's the identity they almost have to lean even further into because that is where their strength is.
- [36:01]
Mark Lazarus
Yeah. And. And it's going to be interesting to see how this team looks with Gabe Perot in the lineup. They just called him up and we were talking about the need for an offensive spark, and that's going to be. The Rangers are surely. They're not calling Gabe Perot up for defense. They're calling him up to get an offensive spark, and that's going to be a really important factor for them going forward because they're, they're searching for offense, especially at home.
- [36:27]
Jesse Granger
Let's head out east to Elmont. Hit another team in the metro there, the Islanders. I don't know what to make of them right now. Bo Horvat looks like a true number one center right now. Ilya Sorokin is starting to come around. Matthew Schaefer still maybe the most fun guy in the league to watch that. It's so hard to tell anything with the standings that are this bunched up. Does this feel like a playoff contender to you? I mean, Jersey's doing what we expected Jersey to do. Carolina's doing what they always do. Pittsburgh, it's hard to make heads or tails of. Can the Islanders make a run at this?
- [36:55]
Mark Lazarus
Well, Max and I were talking on the drive back from the Wings Rangers game the other night. We were discussing how there are just a lot of spots up for grabs in the East. How many teams do you guys think are, are true? You know, you would, would bet a huge sum of money on what to make the playoffs. There's not, there's maybe five or six. And that leaves a lot of spots up for grabs. So I think there are teams like the Islanders that we might look up in March and, and suddenly they're still in this. What, what intrigues me about the Islanders and something that I think that Matthew Darsh is going to have to, to think long and hard about is what do you do if you're kind of in the mix come the trade deadline? Do you. It's probably going to be a seller's market again because there's a lot of these teams who are going to be fighting. Do you capitalize on some guys who, who other teams are going to have a lot of interest in, whether it's Anders Lee, whether it's Pageau. There's, there's a lot of these players that they could probably move for significant returns. And I'm curious, under Lou Lamarello, it felt like every year they were taking a bit more of a short term approach of trying to make the playoffs, trying to maximize what that year could be. And I'm curious under Matthew Darsch, especially now that you have this foundational piece in place with Matthew Schaefer and, and you have some, some key forwards. Bo Horvat looks like a true number one center. Like you were saying, how much of a long term view do you take or do you go for it and think that you have a real shot here?
- [38:21]
Max Boltman
You talked about how the Rangers have kind of underperformed what the advanced stats would, would lead you to believe where they would be another team along those same lines of the Washington Capitals. And they were obviously one of the breakout stories of last year and all the success they've had under Spencer Carbury. They're another team that you look at the standings, you're not blown away. You're kind of like, oh, they're off to a slow start. You pull up the underlying numbers. This looks like one of the most impressive territorial teams in the league.
- [38:45]
Mark Lazarus
Yeah. And it's another team that has a coach that I really trust. Spencer Carbery has been excellent since he took over there. What interests me with them is they had so many guys last year that had career years, or in Alex Ovechkin's case, not a career year, but certainly an uptick in production from what we saw in the years, the few years before. And so it's, it's interesting seeing if some of these guys maybe are just having slow starts, but are. Who of these players are going to be able to rebound and have similar production to what they had last year, and how many of these guys are kind of regression candidates who are going to take little steps back. And if they all take little steps back, the Capitals might, might struggle. So they're, they are off to an interesting start, and I think they'll be okay, but I definitely don't think they're going to be as good as they were last year, even when they kind of get. Get going a little.
- [39:37]
Jesse
I'll tell you what, Protoss is the guy I'm not picking to have regression. That dude is a monster.
- [39:41]
Mark Lazarus
And he is big that, that he is a big, big kid.
- [39:45]
Jesse
And he just, the way he releases his wrist shot, he's so big, he just kind of leans on it a little and the, the stick turns into rubber and it just fires it off like he's got a shot. Like, I can't think of another player in the league that shoots the puck like him.
- [39:57]
Mark Lazarus
Yeah, he's really fun. I like him a lot. But McMichaels had a bit of a downturn. Like, is he going to get it going again? We'll have to see. But it's, it's an interesting team. Tom Wilson's had a really good year, but Ovechkin hasn't, hasn't really gotten it going. He got to 900, but he hasn't done much more other than that, so. And this team needs goals, so we'll see if they're. They're going to be able to find that from. From some of the guys who were really good from them last year.
- [40:23]
Max Boltman
No surprise bet MGM has Carolina minus 120 to win. The Metro Devils are the next team up after that at +210. I assume nobody's got any problems with that. But after that it is the Rangers and the Capitals. Capitals or sorry, the Capitals and the Rangers, in that order. Capitals plus 9 50. Rangers plus 1400. If, if each of you had to pick a team to upset that apple cart, upset that top four and squeeze into the top four of the Metro, who would it be last?
- [40:49]
Jesse Granger
You know, I kind of lean Islanders just because of Ilya Sorokin. I just kind of think that that's the kind of guy who can. We've seen the Islanders scratch and claw their way into the playoffs a hundred times. It's kind of their whole thing. But the team I'm most curious about maybe in the entire league is still the Pittsburgh Penguins. I have no idea what to make of these guys. They've. They've lost four of their last five. They're kind of coming back down to earth a little. You start looking at their numbers though and like this is the time of year where I'm really looking hard at pdo. I know it's kind of an old school stat at this point, but that's usually when you have only a 15 game sample size or so, it's usually pretty telling. They have an exactly 100 PDO, they are exactly where they should be and right now they're in a playoff spot. And I don't know how much I believe that. I don't trust their goaltending at all. And their goaltending has been good so far, but I just, I've learned better than to bet against Sidney Crosby at this point.
- [41:36]
Jesse
I totally believe in their scoring. Like I believe in Crosby's ability to do this for the rest of the season. I believe in Malkin, I believe in the young kids that they've got coming up. But I think you nailed it with. When I look on goal stage above expected and both Artur Shilobs and Tristan Jari are near the top, it's like I don't know how long those names are going to be at the top of that. I little hesitant on that side of things, but it's like maybe they can just outscore teams. That seems fun to watch all like they, they have wild games, they blow three nothing leads like it's nothing. The Penguins have been so entertaining to watch.
- [42:08]
Mark Lazarus
Yeah. And Kyndale is Kendall. Kendall Is. He's, he's been a revelation for them. What a pick. And he's been an awesome, awesome addition. So it's, it's fun to see. I really hope it lasts. And they're playing meaningful games because I want to see Crosby and Malkin and, and Latang and Carlson and big games. And they need some of those young guys if they're going to do this. And they're getting contributions from them, which is exciting.
- [42:34]
Jesse Granger
I can hear all of our fans in all of our listeners in Montreal right now going, no, no, no, we want Crosby in March.
- [42:42]
Max Boltman
Any buyers on the Philadelphia Flyers, I mean, point per game, Trevor Zegras, Madvey, Mitchkov hasn't even really gotten going to full level yet. And, and yet here are the Philadelphia Flyers knocking on the door and a.
- [42:54]
Mark Lazarus
Coach that seems to get the most out of his players in Rick Talkett. So there. I, we, we talked about them the other night too. I, I struggle to see them having quite enough. I kind of feel the Penguins, I, I fear will come back to earth as, as, as Jesse said, with their goaltending, it's hard to see that continuing and they give up a lot. And the Flyers, I just, I look at their roster and I'm not sure if there's enough talent there, including in net.
- [43:24]
Max Boltman
I mean, that might be the biggest flaw of the whole operation, Jesse, for sure.
- [43:28]
Jesse Granger
Peter, you're a big coach guy, huh?
- [43:31]
Mark Lazarus
Well, you know, it's hard not to be when, when you see the Rangers go from, from a poorest defensive team last year to really defensively structure this year with a lot of the same personnel. It matters.
- [43:44]
Jesse Granger
It matters if you have a good one. It doesn't matter if you have a bad one.
- [43:47]
Jesse
Right.
- [43:47]
Mark Lazarus
Right. Yeah.
- [43:48]
Jesse
I think this, the Flyers are just going to overachieve for like, what. That's what talk it does. It reminds me of when he was in Arizona. Like, they're not going to be good enough to beat any good teams, but they're a pain in the ass to play. Like, you don't look forward to playing against them. They're going to be difficult. They're going to forecheck you, but at the same time, when the cream rises to the table top, I just don't see the Flyers being there. My question for, for Peter and for you guys is we haven't really talked about the top two teams because they're just like the Devils and Carolina. They're just kind of rolling. Which of those two teams are you more confident in right now? Like, like, I like the Devils, we're finally seeing them healthy, they're exciting, they've got exciting players. Carolina, it's almost not exciting because they've just been doing this for so long and then they always fall flat in the playoffs. Like if you had to pick a team to hit your wagon to right now between the two top two teams that are rolling like we expected. Who do you like better?
- [44:37]
Jesse Granger
Well, it depends. Are you talking about to win the division or are you talking about to win the Stanley Cup?
- [44:41]
Jesse
Because to win the Stanley cup very differently.
- [44:43]
Jesse Granger
To win New Jersey then I'm picking New Jersey then until Carolina proves it. And you know, we've all been, we've all seen it happen. We've, we've hitched our wagon to them and then, you know, got knocked off course pretty easily in the third round. Like look, Carolina is a great team with a great system that works to a degree and until they prove otherwise, I'm going to put my, my chips behind. Check Hughes, who is maybe my favorite player in the league to watch. Maybe one of the five best players in the world. I like their goaltending. Jake Allen showed that even, you know, they have, they have two good goalies. Jake Allen was really strong when Markstrom was hurt and that's a team that I believe in. Nico, he sure it's just top to bottom. I think I would put New Jersey over Carolina right now.
- [45:21]
Max Boltman
Big fan of what the Devils have done in the postseason then last.
- [45:24]
Mark Lazarus
Yeah, I was going to say at.
- [45:26]
Jesse Granger
Least it's something new, right? At least it's something new.
- [45:29]
Jesse
They haven't lost as many times their.
- [45:31]
Mark Lazarus
Last two times in the playoff. Do you know who beat them? The Carolina hurricanes fool me 17 times.
- [45:38]
Jesse Granger
Shame on me.
- [45:39]
Mark Lazarus
So I like both of those teams a lot. I think they both have really good rosters. The Hurricanes, to me, I loved their off season. Getting Ehlers, getting Keandre Miller. I think Keandre Miller is a perfect fit in there.
- [45:52]
Jesse
Couldn't agree more.
- [45:53]
Mark Lazarus
I think that that team is, yes, we can say they haven't done it, but a lot of these teams haven't done it. And the Hurricanes have consistently put themselves in position to have a chance. So they have experience, they have really good players and I think they've got a little bit more firepower than they did last year. Certainly when they, obviously they, they traded Natus who was a big offensive producer for them, brought in Ranton, that didn't work out and they took the long term approach and went for Stankov and so they, that wasn't a team that had a lot of firepower last year, whereas this year it's still not a team. It. They don't have McKinnon and McCarr and guys like that, but they, they have Ealers, they have Keandre who provides a bit of offense and they've got all these young guys who I think are going to keep taking steps like Jackson, Blake, like Logan Stankhoven. So to me Carolina is the one I probably hitch my wagon to. Of of those two teams though, I think that that would be an excellent playoff series and I think both of them are really good teams. I, I just trust Carolina's infrastructure more.
- [46:57]
Jesse Granger
I do too. But how many times have we all picked at the beginning of the season, Dallas versus Carolina.
- [47:02]
Max Boltman
It doesn't stop you with Dallas.
- [47:03]
Jesse Granger
How many times are we going to do it?
- [47:05]
Max Boltman
Carolina?
- [47:06]
Jesse
Look at the last teams to win the cup though. This is how it goes. Like Tampa Bay was the team that just couldn't get over the top and then they finally did. Vegas was the same way. Colorado kind of was, was the same way. Like I feel like these teams that win the cup are the Florida. They lost in the final. I don't know. I feel like Carolina's now but I will say, I'll say that I think Carolina is probably the team but then I will also say Bruce Cassidy I the Golden Knights just played Carolina twice in a couple of games and he said something super interesting that like we're always wondering like why does Carolina not get down the playoffs? And he gave such a good answer and he said like they, they pressure you so much all over the ice that you just have no time and when you're not used to it and it's like once out of 82 games it just catches you off guard and by the time you can adjust to it it's too late and you've lost. They've got a three nothing lead and it's over in a seven game series. You adjust to it and it and all of a sudden their superpower, their pressuring that just, just overwhelms. Teams just completely disintegrates. And that would, would lend you to believe that this isn't just a good team that hasn't gotten over the top. There's an actual reason they aren't winning in the playoffs, which is a little more troubling if you're a Carolina.
- [48:10]
Jesse Granger
And what's the big knock on Rod Brindemore? He does not make adjustments during series. This is exactly what happens every time they go up against a really good team.
- [48:18]
Mark Lazarus
Yeah. But if we're talking about Metro Division teams who's gotten farther in recent years, I mean, they've made the, the Eastern Conference final twice. The Rangers have made the Eastern Conference final twice, but certainly have had lower lows in between those than or between then and now than. Than Carolina has. So. I don't know. I think it's, I, I get, I understand the. Well, they haven't done it before, but it only takes once. You only have to do it once to be remembered. And, and I'm not picking Carolina, actually. You know, I, I did. I think I did. I always forget who I pick in the preseason.
- [48:50]
Jesse Granger
We always pick Carolina. We all.
- [48:52]
Mark Lazarus
Yeah, I think I probably did pick them going into the, the season. I just, I really liked their off season and they've got, I feel like they've got more things they can trade if they want to upgrade some more at the deadline like I saw them recently. And that team had. It was down Keandre Miller, it was down Jacob Slavin, and it was down another defenseman. I'm blanking on. On who? Oh, Augustus Beer. And they played the Rangers. Who? I know the Rangers can't score at home, but they had three rookie defensemen in the lineup. And those guys, they kind of got picked on a little bit for probably the first 10 to 15 minutes and then they just survived for the rest of the game and were solid. Like, I feel like they can just plug anyone in there and they'll, they'll be a sufficient player. And that is so impressive to me. And I think you, you kind of just have to keep getting there, keep getting kicks at the can and eventually maybe you break through or maybe you don't and it's a bummer. But I, I like what they're doing and I like their process.
- [49:49]
Max Boltman
Yep, I'm with, I'm with you. I'm on Carolina as well. That is going to do it for us. Thanks for listening to this episode of the Athletic Hockey Show. Remember to subscribe on YouTube@YouTube.com heathletic hockey show to watch full episodes. Couple of Sean's a Frankie. Plenty of hockey all coming at you Wednesday. We'll talk to you soon. Introducing family freedom from T Mobile. We'll pay off four phones up to $3200 and give you four free phones, all on America' largest 5G network. Visit t mobile.com familyfreedom.
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