The Athletic Hockey Show: Prospect Series
Episode: "Gavin McKenna drops to No. 4 in NHL Draft rankings shakeup"
Date: December 12, 2025
Panel: Max Bultman (Host), Corey Pronman, Scott Wheeler, Chris Peters
Episode Overview
This episode delves into recent major changes in NHL draft prospect rankings, notably Gavin McKenna's fall from the top spot to No. 4 on Corey Pronman’s updated list. The crew breaks down key omissions and selections on World Junior camp rosters for Team Canada and Team USA, debates defense-heavy draft trends, and fields a robust mailbag. The episode is rich with analysis, developmental insights, and candid opinions, making it a must-listen for draft diehards and prospect watchers.
Team Canada World Junior Camp Roster – Surprises, Snubs & Analysis
[02:12 – 07:25]
Discussing Notable Omissions
-
Justin Carbonneau (QMJHL) and Marik Vaneker were left off Canada's roster.
- Corey Pronman:
"If I had to pick one, it'd be Carbonneau. But I wouldn't say it was shocking either... If you're taking Carbonneau, you're leaving behind a top five pick." (02:57)
- Pronman cites questions about Carbonneau’s power-play fit and lack of penalty-kill ability.
- Corey Pronman:
-
Scott Wheeler adds:
"[Coaches and GMs] weren't surprised either... Carbonneau has always come with mixed reviews about consistency, habits off the puck. I don't think he's everybody's cup of tea." (04:05)
-
On scoring depth and power play makeup:
- Concerns about lack of natural power play scorers on Canada beyond the big names.
- Suggestion: Canada might rely heavily on their loaded first unit.
"Maybe they just run that first unit... McKenna and Iginla and Martone... almost the full two minutes." – Scott Wheeler (05:09)
-
Carter Bear's inclusion surprised Scott more than Vaneker being omitted.
-
“Bear making it over Vaneker was a bit more surprising... Bear got off to a slow start, I did wonder if he was going to be on this team.” (06:02)
-
Debating Defense Selections
[07:25 – 12:22]
-
Carson Carl's (WHL) surges into team contention, possibly ahead of Verhoeff and Jackson Smith.
- Corey Pronman:
"I think he actually has a better chance to be in the starting seven than Verhoeff does... Carl's has been excellent." (07:58)
- Called “an exciting player” with “size, mobility, grit, and hockey sense.”
- Corey Pronman:
-
Chris Peters on the left side of defense:
“Carl's is the inside track guy... maturity to me is a separating factor for him.” (09:21)
-
Sam Dickinson’s NHL status could still change the lineup.
-
Ethan McKenzie is mentioned as a “better than 50%” shot to play, praised for skating and competitiveness.
Bubble Forwards & Goaltending
[12:22 – 14:32]
- Jake O’Brien: Despite OHL success, still labeled “bubble” due to fit.
- Bear & Coutts: Final roster fight likely among PK/depth specialists.
- Goalies:
- Expectation Canada brings two – Ivankovic and George:
"Ravensburg is the best pro prospect... but in a junior game tomorrow, I think it's clearly those two right now." – Corey Pronman (14:19)
- Expectation Canada brings two – Ivankovic and George:
Team USA World Junior Camp Roster Insights
[14:33 – 19:11]
-
Few surprises; Will Zellers' late addition is the biggest roster twist.
- Chris Peters:
"Of course Zellers went off the weekend after the team was announced... Maybe we should have that guy." (14:54)
- Chris Peters:
-
Strong depth and battles among defensemen; Chase Reed is highlighted for improving the power play and his rise into contention.
-
Goalie and center depth remain moderate concerns, but there are confidence-building performers (e.g., Max Plante).
-
On centers:
- Discussion about Max Plante potentially being moved to center for versatility and playmaking.
Prospect Rankings Shakeup: McKenna Falls, Defensemen Rise
[22:27 – 28:24]
McKenna Drops to No. 4 – Rationale & Contenders
-
Corey Pronman:
"There's a group of four players right out the top of the draft... McKenna, Stenberg, Verhoff, and Lawrence. That’s the clear top group." (22:48)
- Stenberg’s performance “against men” is a tiebreaker.
- Lawrence’s two-way game and size compared favorably; recent USHL return matched expectations.
- McKenna’s “tough final month of college hockey” precipitated fall.
- The next few months, especially the World Juniors, could shuffle the order.
-
On Lawrence:
"What he did last year in the USHL was unbelievable... comparison is more like, say, Michael Misa at the same age." (25:00)
-
Increasing prominence of defensemen.
- Verhoff at 2, Carl’s at 6, Chase Reed at 7.
- Albert Smiths (Latvia) lands at 5.
- Draft identity this year: “blue line becoming the identity of this draft?”
"Yes, absolutely... a lot of really exciting defensemen in this year’s draft. A lot of defensemen with significant offense... significant power play potential." – Corey Pronman (26:19)
-
On Villna’s drop:
"Not quite as dominant as I thought he was going to be… mild concerns on his defense. So, when you’re unsure you’d rather take the 6’2 guys who can skate and have offense." (27:15)
The Draft’s Defensive Depth
[28:24 – 29:06]
- World Juniors will be a key measuring stick, with several top defense prospects competing for various countries.
- Scott Wheeler:
“This year, you’re going to have some measuring stick games… if Sweden and Canada play... that’s the most compelling game of the tournament, because you get Stenberg and McKenna on the ice together.” (29:03)
- Scott Wheeler:
Small Winger J.P. Hurlburt’s Surge
[29:50 – 32:01]
- Pronman:
"He has grown since his program days... he's competing more consistently... And he's just been tearing up the Western League." (30:11)
- Hurlburt’s creativity and playmaking outweigh mild projection/translation concerns; now ranked ahead of earlier “top five” Belches, which is detailed in the mailbag.
Mailbag: NHL Prospects, Trades & More
[35:36 – End]
Trevor Zegras’s impact on the Flyers
- Chris Peters:
"Having Zegras playing as well as he’s playing right now... that’s a really good thing... Do I think he’s a cornerstone? Not necessarily, but he’ll be an important piece." (36:20)
- Flyers still need “more premium position guys.”
McKenna—What if He Stayed in Junior?
- Pronman:
"Even the Western League people I know... still question his compete, his pace... but it might be more like an Alexis Lafreniere situation: he might have issues but if he has 200 points, you take him." (39:32)
Ranking the 2024 D Class, Two Years Later
- Scott Wheeler:
- Top four: Levshinov, Perek, Bouilliam, Dickinson.
- “The top four might be reordered slightly, but it’s those four up front, then a gap to Salayev and Yakimchuk.” (41:38)
McKenna’s World Junior Outlook
- Chris Peters:
"To get back to number one overall, he's got to be the MVP of the tournament... but it's not just about points, it's about can he drive play, make others better, compete hard." (43:55)
Ben Kendall’s Value in a 2025 Redraft
- Pronman:
"He went 11, I guess 9 or 10, probably... just because he's got into the NHL first doesn't mean he's leapfrogged the premium prospects above him."
- Chris Peters: "The NHL can lie to you sometimes... just because a player makes it first doesn't make him significantly better long term." (49:01)
Quinn Hughes Trade Hypotheticals
- Scott Wheeler:
"If I’m the GM of Vancouver, I’m not making that deal without a Simon Edvinsson level player... Hughes is a Norris Trophy caliber player. That’s what it should take." (50:33)
- Max Bultman:
"If I was Detroit, I would not put Simon Edvinsson in this deal... I don't see the precedent, even for superstars... You want Hughes to go with Seider and Edvinsson, not just swap them out." (51:59)
Notable Quotes
On Canadian Team Power Play Talent:
"Only in Canada can you look at a team that has Michael Misa, Porter Martone, Gavin McKenna and say there's not enough power play talent on this team."
– Host/Moderator (05:44)
On defensemen rising in the draft:
"A lot of big mobile defensemen in this year’s draft. A lot of defensemen with significant offense... significant power play potential."
– Corey Pronman (26:30)
On McKenna’s World Junior Stakes:
"For him, the best way to quiet things down is a strong World Junior championship... It’s not just about the points that he has to score, it’s about, can he drive play, can he make the others around him better, does he compete hard enough?"
– Chris Peters (43:55)
On the Quinn Hughes hypothetical trade:
"If I’m the GM, I’m not trading Hughes for anything less than a Simon Edvinsson-level player."
– Scott Wheeler (50:33)
"If I was Detroit, I would not put Simon Edvinsson in this deal for a couple reasons... you want Hughes to go with Seider and Edvinsson, not just swap them out."
– Max Bultman (51:59)
Timestamps of Key Segments
- 02:12 – Introduction to World Junior Canadian camp roster surprises
- 05:09 – Debating Canada’s power play and depth roles
- 07:58 – Carl’s rise on Team Canada’s defense
- 12:29 – Forwards and bubble players on Team Canada
- 14:54 – Chris Peters on Team USA camp and Will Zellers
- 22:48 – Pronman explains McKenna's drop in the rankings
- 25:49 – The rise of defense prospects in the 2025 draft
- 30:11 – Hurlburt's surge and concerns with Belches
- 36:20 – Zegras impact on the Flyers’ rebuild
- 39:32 – If McKenna had stayed in junior: would the ranking be different?
- 41:38 – Retro ranking 2024 D class two years later
- 43:55 – What McKenna must do at World Juniors to reclaim No. 1
- 50:33 – Quinn Hughes trade package debate
Tone & Style
The panel is conversational yet data-driven, candidly weighing pros and cons, and not afraid to criticize or challenge mainstream opinion on trending prospects. The chemistry between the hosts leads to spirited debates without heat, and their deep familiarity with prospect evaluations and draft trends ensures nuanced context throughout.
Summary
- Team Canada’s World Junior roster shakes up conventional expectations with notable snubs and high-stakes battles for defense and bottom-six spots.
- Corey Pronman’s latest draft rankings see Gavin McKenna fall to No. 4, behind an emerging "big four" at the top, signaling a major shakeup and reflecting premium on multi-dimensional, pro-ready defensemen.
- 2025 NHL Draft projected as defense-heavy; several defense prospects could be high first-round picks, with power-play upside and international pedigree.
- World Juniors will play a massive role in final draft perceptions and comparisons between high-end prospects like McKenna, Stenberg, and the top defensemen.
- Mailbag covers wide-ranging topics: the Zegras resurgence, hypothetical blockbuster trades, effects of prospect choices (NCAA/junior), and real-time re-evaluations of past draft classes.
For prospect nerds, NHL draft watchers, and fans of team-building debates, this episode is packed with sharp analysis, raising timely questions on how we evaluate hockey’s next generation.