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- [00:01]
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- [00:53]
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- [00:56]
Jonas Siegel
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- [00:58]
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- [01:35]
Jonas Siegel
This is the athletic hockey show.
- [01:50]
Sean McIndoo
Hello. Hello. Welcome to the Athletic Hockey Show. I am Sean McIndoo. This summer at the Athletic Hockey show, we're doing something a little different. Other Sean Gentile and I are going to be profiling NHL teams that could use some fixing. And we've we're going to pick out eight or 10 teams, including today's the Toronto Maple Leafs. This is a team that doesn't get a lot of attention, so you may not have heard very much about them, but they could use a little bit of fixing. Last year. Not great. So we got our Leafs reporter Jonas Siegel here. He's going to join us for the next 30 minutes or so and we're going to talk about the overhaul in Toronto. Got a new gm, a new advisor, new head coach, a new assistant coach as of very recently as we're recording this, as well as first overall pick and a whole bunch of new players. But are those new players? Enough is going to be the big question. Hey Jonas, how are you? How's your, how's your summer going?
- [02:54]
Jonas Siegel
It is good. It's been a lot to process as I'm sure it has been for you. Like there's been just since the start of January, like, forget about last fall. The amount of stuff that has happened with this team is just overwhelming.
- [03:10]
Sean McIndoo
Yeah, it's, it's been, been a high volume of change certainly. And it feels like some pretty extreme swings up and down. I mean, nothing will ever top that 24 hour or so period where we got the John Chaika, Matt Sundin introductory press conference, which I think it's fair to say did not go optimally, no. Followed by the draft lottery win. So it kind of feels like that's the ups and downs and then everything else is in between. And what makes it interesting is at the end of all of it, when you look at this roster, it's, it's very different volume wise, large percentage of guys having changed. But is it going to be enough? And I, I, let's start up front because that's where the, the heaviest volume has been. I mean it feels like we're going to get pretty close to a 50% turnover and yet the vast majority of that 50% is going to be the bottom six. So I will ask you this to kind of frame the discussion and then you can, you can tell me what you think of all the moves we've seen so far in all of the post mortems that you read, consumed, wrote, created all those conversations. Did you ever hear anyone say that the 20, 25, 26 Maple Leafs, their biggest problem was the bottom six?
- [04:49]
Jonas Siegel
No, but I think if you look at like the type of players that they added, they meet the qualifications in some ways of what I think they were missing in part. I'm glad you broke it up into the top six, bottom six too, because I think the bottom, the top six, it's now easy to kind of overlook that it's, it's not really that different, like if it's different at all. But the bottom six, like I looked at them heading into free agency and I thought they needed to get faster. I thought they needed better defenders in their forward group. I thought they needed more tenaciousness, I thought they needed more playmaking in their forward group. And I think you look at the forwards that they got and like they checked off some of those boxes. I thought they needed more help at center. Are they substantially better at center than what they were before? Maybe, like, it's definitely not like a sure thing as of yet. They have not replaced or found an upgrade on John Tavares in the top six as far as like center ice goes. So like you could make an argument that the forward group is better in some ways and maybe worse in some ways or, or the same in some ways. Like which part is more interesting to you, what they did in the bottom six with, like, the Pauls and the seasons and types like that?
- [06:05]
Sean McIndoo
Or is.
- [06:05]
Jonas Siegel
Is the fact that they didn't really touch the. The top six beyond obviously, winning the draft lottery with McKenna. And then I guess what you think of. Of Jack Roslovic.
- [06:14]
Sean McIndoo
Yeah. Who. Who is sort of the. The wild card here, because he's. He. He is. He really reminds me a lot of a Max Domi that in theory, you look at the numbers, you look and you go, yeah, we can find a spot for that. And yet he's kind of a guy who. You look at his skill set, he's got to be there in the top six. And yet is he skilled enough to be in the top six? Can he produce enough? And then you drop him down to the bottom six and you go, wait a second, this isn't the skill set here. And especially with what the. What the Leafs seem to want to do. And so where did. Where does he slot it? Where do you think? Ideally, in a perfect world before injuries and all the other stuff that we know is going to hit hits, where do they see Jack Rosslovic going right now?
- [07:05]
Jonas Siegel
It's a fascinating question. I've spent the last week, like, playing around with every possible line combination that they could explore. I think, like, there are 5,000 of them, and it's like, everywhere I put him, I'm like. Like, I don't know if I love that. Like, obviously you look at his connection with Auston Matthews forever ago. Like, does that matter? I don't. I don't really know. Maybe it does, maybe it doesn't. But it's like, do you want to play a. A guy who's not great defensively, more shooter than passer? Do you want to play him on a top line against really tough competition? It's like, I don't love it. Like, I could see it, but I don't love that. And then it's like, okay, well, let's move down the line. Do you want to play him with. With John Devares potentially? And like, I don't know who's on the other side? Is it Matthew Nyes? It'? I don't love that. And then, like, you mentioned the bottom six, it's like, well, if I'm going to use Nick Paul, let's say as the third line center, I want to use that line against other top lines. I want to play in the defensive zone. It's like, do I really want to play him there? It's like, not really. So it's like it, it, it presents the same Domi question where it's like, yeah, like you can find stuff about Domi that's, that helps. Like he, he can make a pass, but it's like when you try to put him in the lineup and you're like, where is the best fit? It's like everywhere is, is comes with this little caveat. And so I don't know. I did think it was interesting that John Shaika mentioned that they wanted to get another right shot into their forward group. And you think specifically a right shot to play with Auston Matthews. Because ever since Mitch Marner left, it's been mostly lefties with the odd bit of William Neanderthals in there. So you wonder if that's something they're thinking about, like having a right handed shot playing with Matthews, if that opens up more opportunities for him. So I don't know, like I, I don't know that I see an ideal fit for him. Like I, I like Easton Cowan more as a top six player than him next season, but I mean they signed him for two years too. Like I liked Victor, Victor Harvinson as a fit better than him. I, I don't quite know what happened there, why he wasn't the choice, especially because the money wasn't really that much more for a significantly better player in my opinion. But I don't know, like, is there somewhere that is screaming out to you or it's like he has to play there?
- [09:14]
Sean McIndoo
There, there isn't. And, and that's, you know, that's the, the question mark. And I hope, I hope it's not the Auston Matthews connection. You know, the fact that these guys knew each other as teenagers. Like I'm, I'm having flashbacks to the Sue Greyhounds thing under Kyle Dubas where you know, they're like, no, our, we have somebody who knew Matt Murray when he was 13 and so that's why this move is going to work out. And then, you know, surprise, surprise. And then when it comes to the, the guys who are definitely penciled in for the bottom six, I will say there's a part of me that likes us because I'm, I'm, I was going to say I'm old school. I'm just old. But I'm old enough to remember when the Leafs had like the Zazzle Berg Osborne checking line. I love that line. That is one of my all time favorite Maple Leaf lines. So you just send them out, they're going to win every Face Off. They're Going to win every battle and I've been begging for a return to, you know, something that looks like that. Again, that haven't been said. Don't we do this every year in Toronto? It feels like every single year in Toronto they go, we don't have enough truculence, snot, whatever the word is we're not hard enough to play against. We need more grit and sandpaper from the bottom six. So here's a whole bunch of new bottom six guys that we went out and got and paid and maybe overpaid and then after we get a year of that and then they go, okay, obviously we got the wrong guys. So. But this time, this time we're going to get all new guys who are going to come in and it's, and it's just like, I mean this, this is Bradshaw living. Did this. You know, Dubas tried to go a little more skill initially, but towards the end he was going very old school on the hard to play against. I mean is, I guess my question as a fan would be why is this group that came in, why is this going to be different than the Dakota Joshua last year and you know, the guys two years ago and on down the list of how often they
- [11:26]
Jonas Siegel
seem to do this, I think the case you can make is that these are different players. These are, I mean are they better players? I don't know. Like, I like these players individually. Like Colton Sissons played a lot in a lot of different roles for Vegas last year. Like I can see why they would like someone like that. Like someone you can play at center, someone you can play on right wing, someone who's going to kill a lot of penalties. I don't love the contract. That's a lot. Four and a half or four, two, five for two years for. And I think he's going to be 33 in November and like not going to produce a ton of offense. Like the contracts you could really quibble with like a three year deal for duhaim, it's like fourth liner getting a three year deal. Like we've seen that before. You're right. Like they're all bets. And, and I think maybe the most interesting one, the most potential to actually pay off is Nick Paul. But it's like why is, why is Tampa trading him? Like Tampa is. I mean I would probably say is it, is that the smartest team in the league? If it's not the smartest, it's the second smartest.
- [12:21]
Sean McIndoo
And, and we can get into that as we go through the other positions because I had somebody point out the. Point this out to me. And, and if you're keeping track at home, this is going to be the second early 90s Lisa reference of the show, not the last, I'm sure.
- [12:35]
Jonas Siegel
Can we get to 10?
- [12:36]
Sean McIndoo
We might get to double digits. But somebody pointed out to me that when, when Cliff Fletcher showed up in Toronto, the first thing he did as far as establishing the winning culture and everything that he wanted to do, he started going out and getting Oilers and Flames and bringing them to Toronto. Grand Fear. Glenn Anderson, Doug Gilmore, obviously, and, and all of that, because those were the two best teams in the league and those were the two. Those two rivals. And he wanted that intensity and he wanted everything. And now here we are. Lord knows how many years later. I don't want to think about how many years later. And. And it feels like John Shaika and Matt Sandin are kind of doing the same thing with the Panthers and the Lightning. Except, man, the Panthers and Lightning are two real smart teams. And when you see them saying no thank you to certain players and then the Leafs jump in and grab them, it's kind of like, all right, does feel a little bit like the whole, like, if you can't spot the sucker at the pool table or at the poker table within a certain number of hands, bad news. It's probably you. Are we the suckers here? Like, is that. Is that possible?
- [13:53]
Jonas Siegel
It's possible. And especially because it's not. Like, you look at Nick Paul's contract and you're like, man, they really got to get off that contract. The contract looks fine, like 3.15 for the next three years. But then you look at last year and, like, it wasn't a good year for him. He was hurt to start the year. The production was down. He didn't play as much. Tampa has better forwards. So, like, you can kind of make a case. Like, you can be like, well, they added Gourd and suddenly, like, they, they don't need him as much. And like, they had Gensel and they have Point and they have Kucherov and they just have. They have Sorelli, you know, like, they can. They. You could make a case where it's just like, he got a little older, he started late, it didn't go great. And the Leafs are betting on the fact that, like, he's going to be more important to them. He's going to bounce back. He's not old. Like, he's 31, but it's like Tampa traded him for a backup goalie. It's like huh, that's interesting. But, like, you could see the idea of it. Like, I think he'll spend time in the top six like he did in Tampa. Like, he played a lot with their best players. Is he going to be the. The third line center that this team has been craving? Like, maybe. Is he so much better than, like, Nick Wa. Maybe. But then, like, you look at other editions, like, I like Teddy Bluger. I like. Is he so much better than Scotland? In some ways, yeah. In some ways, no. So, like, you could, you could kind of pick these guys apart and be like, is it so much better than what they had before? I think defensively and speed wise it is. But then as you and I both know, this team's issue in the playoffs has not generally been that. It's been the goal scoring. And so I think, like, looking at all these forward additions kind of gets away from the big question is like the biggest question of all is like, what is Auston Matthews going to look like next year? Because, like, all these other guys like it. It doesn't really matter if, like, if he looks the way he did at times last year where he's just not the same player, it won't matter, right? Like, it's just not going to matter.
- [15:45]
Sean McIndoo
Yeah, if it's. If it's 40 goal Auston Matthews and not, let's say 55 goal Austin Matthews, ideally with gusts up to the 60s, but then you're right, it. It, this, this doesn't matter. And what about a guy we've mentioned but Matthew Nies? Yeah, what is the deal here? Because it feels like the Leafs have been waiting for a player like this for so long on a nice cheap contract, all of that. And we're now into like, it was one thing when we heard that Brad Trellivan was trying to trade him, because that, that may have been a GM fighting to keep his job. We're now into a second administration that really seems hell bent on moving this kid. Why? And where is this coming from? And what kind of impact is this going to have on a 23 year old who has got to be feeling like, am I really wanted here?
- [16:48]
Jonas Siegel
I think there's so many different layers to it. I think one of the layers is you look at their roster and he is like the one screaming trade chip. You have to get somebody who fills a more important need. So, like, we talked about Zach Orensky as a possibility. Like, if you can trade Matthew Nice for Zach Orensky, you do it. So I think that's one layer because, like, William Neanderth, no movement clause, Austin Matthews. No. Then you're not trading those guys. Like, if you're trying to compete and then you go down the rest of the roster, it's like the rest of these guys, like, aren't going to get you anything substantial. So there's that. I think one of the other interesting things with him is like, I think there is probably some debate internally about how good he actually is and whether some of the surface stuff, like the goals, the physicality, how impactful he is on actually like driving, winning. Because if, like, if you really want to get into the numbers, like, you could, you could pull his numbers. And I've looked at this. When he doesn't play with Auston Matthews, it doesn't look as good. Shocking. And so you could be like, well, like, is he, is he really that good? And like, he didn't score as much last year. Mitch Marner wasn't there. Like, was he cashing in on playing with like, Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner, two of the best forwards in the world? Like, was that part of it? So I, I think that there's that layer and, and I think that's probably overthinking it a lot because if you look at the minutes he plays that aren't with Auston Matthews, it's generally with, with John Tavares, who is a very good player, but obviously not Auston Matthews, a different point in his career as well. So there's that. And then your question about, like, how is he going to handle this? I don't know because, like, I'm not convinced that this is done, like, that they're just keeping him now. And I wonder once, once this is kind of out there, if this just is going to linger until they actually trade him. Like, don't you kind of feel like this is just an inevitable point? That whether it's a year from now, six months from now, a month from now, he's just going to be traded for something. Because for some reason, maybe it's one of the reasons I mentioned, they're just not convinced that he's as good as he is and they feel like they can get, use him to get someone better.
- [18:56]
Sean McIndoo
That's, that's what it feels like to me. I, I, I had an NHL GM tell me once that every time they're about to trade for somebody, the thing that keeps them up at night is what, what did their, what does their current team know about them that we don't? Yep. Why are they willing to move him when they know him better than anybody else. And is it possible that they see something we don't? And you just wonder that with, with Matthew Knives. And I say this as someone who's, like, I've said for a long time, there should be no untouchables on this Leafs team. So if Knives is the guy that everyone's calling about, take the calls, have the conversations, and. But it just, at some point, it feels like it's hit a bit of a tipping point where there's, there's more to it than, than that. So, so let's, let's use this as a. We'll, we'll transition to the blue line and we'll start off with the name you mentioned, Zach Warrensky, where it seemed there, there was about a 12 hour period where that seemed like it could be imminent with him coming to Toronto. And then we all saw the, the, the sort of kiss and make up that happened in Columbus and the statements and you know, we're going to be here. Is, is that dead or is that sleeping for now? Is there any chance that Zach Warrenski comes back onto the market anytime soon? And would the Leaf still be at the front of the line if that happened?
- [20:14]
Jonas Siegel
I would think so. To both questions. I guess the, the bigger question for the Leafs is if what you had wasn't getting it done in the summer, is that going to change? And I guess it could, right? Like, if Matthew Nice comes out and he's just like, takes a real step and it's like, man, this guy's gonna score 35 goals. And it, it's like, this guy is, is leaping up into something else. But then I guess the question becomes like, then do you want to trade him? Like, he's on a good contract, he's still really young. I mean, I guess, like, other pieces could become more attractive. Like if Easton Cowan takes a step, I guess that's possible. But to go back to like, Nice, clearly Columbus was like, that's not good enough, I would think. Or that the trade would presumably be done. Like, if you could put your best package in Nice as a centerpiece, I mean, obviously they decided that wasn't enough. So is that going to change in the season? I don't know. Is, is it going to change for Tampa? Like, I just feel like the Rensky situation, I don't know. I'm sure you probably feel the same. They're just kicking this can down the road. Like, he has basically told them, I am not resigning in two years. So what are you waiting for? Like, and then as time goes on, like how does the Leafs offer change? Does it change? I don't know. Like, I just think it's really interesting and he would obviously change the complexion of everything for them, especially if in a year from now you could resign him or extend his contract. I mean, so I don't know. Like I, I, I can't imagine it's, it's dead. I, I kind of just think, as you said, it's sleeping
- [21:49]
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- [22:59]
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- [23:55]
Sean McIndoo
So doesn't sound like Zacharysky is going to fall out of the sky anytime soon. But they did add another guy who got some Norris votes.
- [24:03]
Jonas Siegel
Did he this year?
- [24:04]
Sean McIndoo
Darren Radish was one of 14 defensemen I want to say that got Norris votes this year. And he got more. He got, I mean, it was a handful, but it was, you know, it was a few. And I'll say you look down the list of those other guys and it is just a non stop list of guys who in theory would never be available at any price at any contract, whatever you want to say. And then you get to Darren Radish and the Leafs go out and get him for a fifth round pick and they sign them to a contract that at the time felt kind of reasonable. And I mean, it feels like the entire salary thing has been reset by Leo Carlson. So now suddenly, maybe he's a bargain. The term is obviously ugly, but where do, where are we on this player? Because this is not a profile that we have seen very often where a guy isn't even in the NHL, finally cracks it, has a couple of good years, and then has a legitimately great year last year. And we should emphasize this isn't. This wasn't just a guy who went on a shooting percentage bender and scored a few more goals than he normally would. He was really good, all 200ft, driving play. Go on down the list of what you want a defenseman to do, but he's done it one time and at his age is, is. I guess maybe my question would be, what's your sense of what are the Leafs banking on? Do they think they're getting that guy from last year in Tampa for the most of the next eight years or something else? Or what's, what's the thinking there to take this enormous gamble on a guy who seems like such a question mark?
- [25:51]
Jonas Siegel
Well, I think if you're them and you're trying to improve the defense, you're looking at free agency. And besides him, there's not really anybody else you're looking at. And you're like, that guy's gonna make us so much better. Like Rasmus, Anderson obviously resigned in Vegas. I don't think he's changing their team in the way that Radish potentially can. And then it's like, well, okay, can you make a trade for someone better? It's like, well, the best guy available we just talked about is Zach Orensky. And like, obviously they, they didn't have enough to get that done. So you look at his skill set and you look at what they've had and it makes sense. Like I get it. Like, he's got a big shot, one of the hardest shots in the league. They have lacked that obviously for a long time now. They've lacked that specifically on their power play forever. Like you and I have watched all those playoffs where it's like, man, they could really use somebody who could shoot the puck and they just have never had it. And then you mentioned like playing tough minutes and like he can play a lot. And, and, and so the question is like, how much of last year was real? Like, I don't think he's going to score 22 goals. I don't think he's gonna have, think he had 72 points. I would take the under for both those things. But if you told me he had 15 goals and 50 points next year and he's playing 23 minutes a night and he's, he's reliable and he's pretty good, I wouldn't be really surprised. And I just think it's like a, a 12 year bet really, that revolves around Austin Matthews. Like if he comes in, he helps their team, they make the playoffs, they have a good year, Matthews extends his contract, then it's like cool. Like the cap is going to continue to go up. That, that contract will look okay depending on how he ages, obviously. But if, if Matthews decides after next year, you know what, I'm not sticking around, then they're rebuilding anyway and like the contract, like, it doesn't matter as much and maybe they can move that contract at a certain point. Do you know what I mean? Like, I get the logic behind it. I think the bet makes sense given the other options, given what they had. But it like, it is a bet. Like, and you mentioned like, it's an eight year contract and he is 30 and it's like Tampa is like a unique organism. And it's like what happens when you're outside of that you're not playing with Kucherov, right? It's the same thing.
- [28:00]
Sean McIndoo
Tampa had this guy. They in theory know him better than anyone. That is not an organization that has ever been shy about giving max length deals to guys that they, I mean you, you look down their list whether if first line, third line, bottom pair, they will give you seven, eight years if they feel like you're an indispensable piece. And they not only did not choose to do that with Darren Radish, they traded him, facilitated a sign and trade with a division rival. I can't help but be a little bit nervous about what Julian Brisebaugh and friends might know. Or think they know here that that is. That is something that's. That's makes me nervous. And we'll get to make that point one more time when we get to the goaltending. But before we do, because Radishes is the big change on the blue line. Other than that, as of now, it's not that different. What's. What's the Morgan, Morgan Riley status at this point?
- [29:10]
Jonas Siegel
It is interesting because for like three weeks there, it was like, he's getting traded. And I went into this whole process thinking, I think this trade is going to be harder than is being perceived. Like, there was just this perception, like, yeah, they're just going to trade him. He's just going to submit the teams. They're just going to trade him. It's like, well, there's like all these complications. Like, he's getting older. He's 32. He didn't have, like, the last two years weren't great. His contract is former years. He has no movement clause. Like, how is this, like, why is this going to be so easy? And if I'm another team, why am I just helping the Leafs take him? I think another question is, like, why are they moving? I'm like, what is the urgent need to trade him? So I'm assuming he's coming back, but I would not be surprised if August, whatever, we wake up and we're like, yeah, they traded him. They decided to pay. I don't know, what do you think it costs to. I guess, like, what is a sweetener to get a team to take Morgan Ryan?
- [30:06]
Sean McIndoo
That's the question, right? Because, I mean, what. What does that look like in a world where Darnell Nurse just got traded with no retention? Who was the guy who. Yeah, but you better.
- [30:18]
Jonas Siegel
But, yeah, but then, like, think back to like, some of the sweeteners that the team we're talking about here has paid. It's like the Leafs paid a first round pick for one season of Patrick Marleau's contract. They paid. I'm trying to remember the price for Nick Ritchie when they had to trade him. Was it like a second and a third or something? It was something like that. And like, I think he had like a two years left and not like, it wasn't a huge contract. So, like, if I'm team whatever and I'm like, you guys, like, you want to trade him, I'll just wait until like, you've. You've given me what I want. And then like, to go back to your point about nice, it's like, is he Just going to come back and like we're just going to forget about all this. Like, what is, what do you think that even looks like?
- [31:02]
Sean McIndoo
And I guess, you know, also why are they looking to trade him? Because they, the blue line of this team is old and made up of a lot of guys who are locked in long term. So I get you might just look at it and say, okay, Morgan Rielly, we have to move Morgan Rielly in order to free up space for Darren Radish and other guys that may be coming in. Or is it about we need to change the culture, change the dynamic. Morgan Riley's been here forever. He's the one guy who reaches all the way back to, you know, even, even the days before Auston Matthews. It's time to move on in in order to have the fresh start. In which case kind of feels like at that point you're not trading for value, you're just, you're trading to move on from a guy. In which case you got to go out and get it done. I don't know. I mean there's, I go back and forth. There's a part of me that says if, if there are teams in this league that voluntarily want Jacob Truba At 4 years times 8.5, there should be somebody out there who wants Morgan Rielly at 4 times 7 and change. But clearly that hasn't, that hasn't materialized yet.
- [32:14]
Jonas Siegel
Well, and Sean, like to that point I had Shayna Goldman, who obviously works for the Athletic, pull up like what Morgan Riley would have been projected to get as a free agent. It wasn't like that much different from his contract. Like I think we did a three year contract and it was like six something and he's got four years left at seven and a half. But to your other point, like about it, just feeling like it's time. Last year was like the first time where I felt some of the. I've kind of had enough of this vibes from him. Like the same vibes I felt the last couple years with Mitch Marner where it's like even the season before he left, it was like he doesn't look like he's like enjoying this anymore. And part of that with Riley is obviously it was really rough for him. It was really rough for the team. So like it kind of makes sense. And you wonder if now you have a coach who is more of a backer, a believer, whatever you want in Jim Hiller, like maybe it works and maybe it's different, but then it's like, is it just time. Like it's 13 years a long time. Like maybe it's just time, but I don't know. Like it's. It's such a weird situation because usually like with nurse, these things get out and then they just happen.
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- [34:43]
Sean McIndoo
I've stalled long enough. Let's talk about the I think Darren Radish is the biggest move of the summer, certainly as far as dollars, but I don't know that there's one that's going to have a bigger impact on the team than Sergey Bobrovsky coming in at, I would argue a reasonable cap hit, but a three year term. So this is another big bet. It's a risk. And it's a risk where reportedly the three times seven was was what Bobrovsky's camp went to the Panthers with. And the Panthers said no, thanks for the two Stanley Cups, thanks for being one of the most important players in the history of our franchise. But no, you're not worth three times seven. And then they take that offer to the Leafs and the Leafs say, yep, we'll jump on that. Walk me through what the thinking here is and and what are the what are the odds that this works?
- [35:45]
Jonas Siegel
So they're obviously betting on his resume, which is strong hall of Fame worthy.
- [35:51]
Sean McIndoo
They are betting on one of the great, perhaps the best goalie in history, according to John Chaika, when it's all said.
- [35:56]
Jonas Siegel
And yes, he yes, hyperbolic statements have been there at times. Yeah, I think he also said like Radish is like a defenseman that they've, like, never had. And it's like, I guess that's kind of true, but it's like. Anyway, so they're betting on his resume, the fact that he's been a very good goalie for a very long time. They're betting on the fact that he plays all the time. Like, he is durable. He's 50 games. Ish every single year. He plays all the time in the playoffs. Like, they have obviously had issues with that with their many goalies over the last decade, plus dating back to, like, I mean, Frederick Anderson played a lot, but then obviously had some playoff issues. Jack Camp, like, they've just had, like, a lot of instability in the crease. So they are betting on someone who can just play all the time and. And potentially play well. I guess the question I've been thinking about a lot lately since I started thinking about this possibility, what would make it a success? Because, like, he won a Vezna trophy forever ago. He, like, he was a finalist a few years ago. Okay, so, like, he had a really good year, like, three years ago. Like, his average goaltending, Would that be okay? Like, is that good enough? Is above average? Like, what do you think actually makes it where you look back and you're like, yeah, that made sense, them going out and signing him.
- [37:13]
Sean McIndoo
I. I mean, I. I think it is average goaltending, or maybe the way I would phrase it, would be good enough goaltending to get you into the playoffs and then you get playoff Bob, which doesn't necessarily mean he leads you to a Stanley Cup. I think we have to be realistic about what this Leafs team is, but that if I'm John Shayka, I'm probably thinking that this, The Bobrovsky Stallers combo gets me to the playoffs and. And then for the first time, maybe in the Matthews era, we go into the playoffs with no goaltending questions. We have a guy, a guy who has done it. He's won in the playoffs, he's got cup rings. He's not going to get phased. We're not going to be looking over our shoulders going, who's, you know, who do we start? Oh, boy, is this playoff ready. What's happening to Jack Campbell on down the list? That I suspect is probably what they're ideally looking for. Could it happen? I mean, it could. It's. It's. If you follow the NHL at all, you never say never on goaltending in any direction with any player. But I.
- [38:32]
Jonas Siegel
Well, can I tell you something that
- [38:33]
Sean McIndoo
Feels like what it is. Yeah. Yeah.
- [38:35]
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- [38:35]
Jonas Siegel
Well, here's something. I just, I was doing some research on him today. I believe he will be the oldest goaltender in the league next year. So just like, just keep that in mind. Like, we've been like, yeah, he's turning 38 in September. Unless James Reimer signed somewhere and Cam Talbot some signed somewhere, Sergey Barofsky will be the oldest goaltender in the league. And it's like, yeah, like, old goaltenders sometimes work, but a lot of times they don't. And like, he was not a very good goaltender last year. And it's like, you can make a lot of reasons for that. So like, I'm just, I just, I don't, I get it. I just don't think it's as, like, I don't even know what percentage I'd put on it that it's going to work. And then there's like the whole Joseph Wall trade component, which, like, I am not like the biggest. Like, I've never been like the biggest Joe Wall backer, but he was on like a pretty good contract. He's shown some things. He's been better than Bobrovsky last couple years. So, like, it's an interesting bet and I, and I get it, but I don't think it's as foolproof as like, it's like, oh, Sergey Bobrovsky, like, we're watching, I'm watching the World cup right now as we record this and guys his age are just like, yeah, they're done. They can't, they can't. They can't play anymore. You know what I mean? It's like time is, is undefeated. Right.
- [39:48]
Sean McIndoo
Like, and we have seen it with goalies, obviously at Belfor is the name that, that leaf fans are, are crossing their fingers for. Dominic Hasek played well into his late 30s.
- [40:00]
Jonas Siegel
That is the greatest goaltender of all time. Let's be clear.
- [40:04]
Sean McIndoo
Until Sergey Bobrovsky gets a couple of. Couple more years under his belt, he's keeping, he's keeping the throne warm. Yeah, I mean, it could, it could work this year. It could work. $7 million worth this year. I feel like. And I mean to, to bring up a name that we've already brought up once I saw somebody describe this contract as, as Marlow esque. And that's what it kind of feels like. And, and I get like. And part of this is it doesn't it feel with the Leafs that you're just projecting ahead the next two years and then there's just this black hole on the horizon.
- [40:46]
Jonas Siegel
Yeah.
- [40:46]
Sean McIndoo
And it's almost like, you know, we, we kind of said it with Radish, but like with Auston Matthews hanging over everything, two things happen in the next two years. Obviously Auston Matthews contract is up and also the era of, we gave away our first round picks ends. So it really feels like two more years to contend and then maybe the whole thing blows up anyways and maybe nothing matters past two years and maybe I shouldn't be sitting here worried about year three of, of a contract on a goaltender who might not even be here or he might be retired or he might be on LTIR, although it's a 35 plus deal. And you know, but wait, see, I
- [41:29]
Jonas Siegel
think we need to think about year one. Like, to me, like, are we sure about year one? Like that's, that's what I don't know.
- [41:36]
Sean McIndoo
We're. We're sure that year one, like year one feels reasonably in play to me in a way that year three doesn't.
- [41:43]
Jonas Siegel
Fair.
- [41:44]
Sean McIndoo
Yes, but it doesn't feel like a lock at all. No. And I tell you, man, but to give you a sense of sort of where I'm at, I'd feel a lot better about Sergey Bobrovsky if he was here on a one year deal at a higher number than seven.
- [42:00]
Jonas Siegel
Yep, fair.
- [42:01]
Sean McIndoo
And then you go, you know what, we'll just do this a year at a time and if that means that we end up giving you 9 million in year one and 8 million in year two and then you're still good and by year three, and we look back go, oh, we ended up spending more than we needed to, okay, that's called playing it safe. And that's, that works. I just, I really wonder about this. And you know, with Anthony Stallers, who's got a decent contract of his own, like, it's not like there's, they're not cheap on goaltending, period. And, and I, I wonder, do you have any insight? Like, Stallers came here to get out from under the shadow of Sergey Bobrovsky. Partly, you know, to, to be either a starter in this league or at least a guy who was not playing like the, the 25 games a year like he was in Florida. And I think, you know, the balance might be a lot closer to 50, 50 during the season. But how does he feel about this? Like, oh, here comes the guy I used to, I used to sit behind and now he's here again.
- [43:06]
Jonas Siegel
Well, I think the thing with him is like, even if they hadn't done this and they had just kept Joseph Wall, he's probably playing. Like, I don't know how much more he's playing, but it's probably, I guess it's probably closer to 50, 50, 60, 40 maybe for wall. But like we've just seen it. Like he, he, he's not going to be able to play more than 30 games and like probably 25 to 30 is the right number for him. Like, he just keeps getting hurt and like there's nothing you can do about that. I guess. Like it's just one thing after another. So in some ways, like I actually think this is great for him. It's not great for opportunity, but I don't know that the opportunity was going to be there anyway. Like, I don't know. I actually think there's a higher chance now with Bobrovsky that he bounces back because he's just going to be asked to do what he was in Florida where it's like, just play, just play once a week. Just like give us one good start a week. And I think there's a pretty high degree of likelihood that if he does that, he's probably gonna stay healthier, I would think. And I think the goaltending will be a lot better than it was. So they're better. Like it's an interesting bet that they've made. And then obviously Acti mob is like their long term security blanket like for the post Brabrovsky era.
- [44:19]
Sean McIndoo
And we'll see like, and probably this year too, as you know, not needing, not needing waivers.
- [44:25]
Jonas Siegel
Yes.
- [44:26]
Sean McIndoo
This is the guy who can come up when, when somebody gets hurt. I'm just going to say it because you look at the, the two guys they've got. I think it's, it's likely. So. All right, I'm going to ask you two more questions and we're going to wrap up one. One question. I feel like this could be a whole podcast on its own, but maybe you can give me the short answer. Why Jim Hiller and what is going to, what is he going to do that's going to push this team in the right direction next year? As a fan, other than it probably can't be worse than year two of Craig Berube. What, what am I, what am I excited about here? From a guy who didn't exactly get rave reviews in la, I think the
- [45:12]
Jonas Siegel
hope is that he can get them to defend better than they have because like you saw last year and even the year before that defensively they just were not very good and you can't make the playoffs, let alone contend for a Stanley Cup. If you're bad defensively, like, it's just. It's just going to be impossible. So I think the hope is, is that he can help with that. He obviously, again, like, it goes back to the Rostovic thing. It's like, how much does it matter that he coached these guys before? I think it, it probably matters more than the Rostovic connection with Matthews just because there's a comfort, there's a familiarity with Matthews, with Nylander, where he has coached those guys before, knows those guys before. I think the roster is better set up for him to exploit those guys more than. Than Craig Berube, where they have like some defensive centers who they can give some of those tougher matchups to and not have to use Matthews and Tavares as much. I think he can help the power play potentially. I guess Daniel Alfredson can help the power play some in, in theory. Ottawa had a good power play last year, but their power play in the years before that wasn't very good. But anyway, we'll see. The power play weapons are better. Like, they have radish, we mentioned McKenna, I think can play an integral part on their power play. If the goaltending is better, that obviously is going to make the coach look better. They had to obviously make a change with Craig Berube. And it's like you looked around at all the options. The one that it doesn't really ever seem like they were super duper all in on is Bruce Cassidy. And I still don't really understand that because I. His resume just trumps Jim Hiller's. But I get the bet on Jim Hiller. Like, I can see why they settle on him after a forever long process, but it's not like the big home run swing like with Babcock. Like, even like, remember the introduction with Babcock where it was like they did it inside, like the big entryway of Scotiabank Arena. There was like employees. It was like this huge deal and it just didn't feel like that with him, with Jim Hiller, like in any way. And we'll see whether it actually turns out better than it did with Babcock.
- [47:15]
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- [47:17]
Sean McIndoo
Yeah, I would say that I would go back and double check the, the clips of that, but video review is a bit of a sore spot with Jim Miller, so I won't, I won't go there. All right, last question. Let's wrap it up.
- [47:33]
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- [47:34]
Sean McIndoo
Where does this team end up? You look at the Atlantic, what's the best case? What is this? A playoff Team. Is this a team that's even in the mix? Where, where do you have them right now in your, your horse race?
- [47:50]
Jonas Siegel
I've been thinking about what I would project for them, like, point wise. I always like to, to do this in my head and then check with Dom, like, what he actually predicts. And last year we were obviously way too optimistic, but I remember saying, like, I kind of see like 100, 101 points and his projection was like 100.5. I was like, yes, right online. So, like, if I was guessing right now, like I've been thinking about it, I would think somewhere in the 95 to 100 point range kind of feels right, but it's dependent on so many things. The biggest of all is, is Matthews, like, is he back to being in the running for the heart trophy? Or is it more like the last couple years? Is Bobrovsky going to be average, better than average, or is he going to be like what he was last year? Are some of the new guys going to fit in? Because, like, that's a lot of change all at once. And sometimes you bring in a lot of new players and it's like there's too many new players here, let alone the coach. Is the defense going to hold up? Because, like you mentioned, it is an old defense, like really old. I'm guessing it's probably got to be the oldest in the league. Like, they did add Emil Andre, who's young, but Everybody else is 30 plus. So there are a lot of questions and then like, how good is McKenna right away? Like, if he comes in and he's just like, he's not a superstar, but he's 40, 50 points and he's clicking with Matthews and he's helping the power play, that makes a big difference. So it just feels like there's a lot of range of outcomes for this team, but it looks like it has the potential to be a lot better than last year's team. Maybe a lot better as strong better.
- [49:24]
Sean McIndoo
Yeah, I mean, I, yeah, I'm with you on better than last year because I feel like last year was sort of a everything that can go wrong did sort of year. I don't know that for me right now, 95 to 100 feels optimistic. Yeah, maybe 90 to 90. Maybe I'm a low 90s guy, which isn't that. I mean, we're not that, that far off, but that could be the difference. Because I mean, this, you look at the Atlantic, I mean, certainly starting off, you got to put Tampa, Florida, bunch of all ahead of The Leafs, Buffalo, I mean, based on what they did last year, more volatility, I think in Buffalo than the other three, but they're right there. So now, I mean, if, if those are four playoff teams, you've got one spot left at the most in the wild card and you've got 100 point Boston team, you've got Ottawa and, and even a Detroit team that say what you will about them finish ahead of you last year. So it's a big climb. I'm not, I, it might be too big, but we have seen some very weird stuff happen. Well, I don't.
- [50:31]
Jonas Siegel
And Sean, I was just gonna say, like, they, they do need, they need more. Like they, the roster might not be settled. They could use one more. Like whether it's an impact defenseman or an impact forward. Like they're a little, like they're not as we talked about with the top six. Like they, they could use one more Walmart guy who's like a real guy. I just don't know how you get that player. And if they can get that player,
- [50:56]
Sean McIndoo
that, that, that feels like it could be a slogan for a lot of spots on this, this ticket.
- [51:02]
Jonas Siegel
Sure.
- [51:03]
Sean McIndoo
All right, that's a good place to wrap. Thank you, Jonas. And we'll obviously keep an eye on all your Leafs coverage as the summer rolls on and into next year. And thank you for watching and listening to this edition of the Athletic Hockey Show. Thank you to again to Jonas for coming on Talk about Maple Leafs with us and to producer Jeff. We will see you next time on the Athletic Hockey Show.
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