The Athletic Hockey Show — "Kempe’s Kings Deal Proves NHL Free Agency Is Dead"
Date: November 17, 2025
Hosts: Max Bultman, Mark Lazarus
Guests: Eric Stevens, Shayna Goldman
Episode Overview
This episode centers on the Los Angeles Kings’ major contract extension for Adrian Kempe and explores why the current NHL landscape signals the decline of major free agency. Hosted by Max Bultman and Mark Lazarus, with insights from Eric Stevens and Shayna Goldman, the show also covers the Pacific Division race, the impact of Jack Hughes' injury on the Devils, and which teams are most concerning one month into the season.
The tone throughout is analytical, candid, and sometimes irreverent, with deep dives into team-building strategies, contract economics, league-wide trends, and player evaluation.
1. Adrian Kempe’s Deal and the End of NHL Free Agency
[02:49–07:32]
Key Points:
- Kempe Extension Details: Adrian Kempe signs an eight-year, $85-million deal with the LA Kings, averaging $10.6M per year.
- Value for Money: Eric Stevens emphasizes that while Kempe’s stats (41-goal, 73-point peak) may not match top "superstar" wingers, his unique importance to LA justifies the price, especially given the team's lack of another elite wing prospect.
- Eric Stevens [03:06]: “Adrian Kempe is their guy right now. He's their best player... it’s something that is going to be fairly agreeable for both sides.”
- Market Dynamics: Kempe likely could have fetched more on the open market, but teams seldom let top players reach free agency anymore.
- Mark Lazarus [04:32]: “If Adrian Kempe had made it to the summer, he would have been the bell of the ball and gotten a lot more than $10.6 million a year.”
- Shift in NHL Free Agency: The rising salary cap gives teams power to retain their stars; as a result, the upcoming free agent classes look disappointing—even teams with cap space can’t “buy” help the way they once could.
- Mark Lazarus [07:32]: “Guys aren't going to make it to free agency. Your Mitch Marners are going to be the exceptions, not the rules now.”
Notable Quotes:
- Max Bultman [06:51]: "If he makes it to market, he's the bell of the ball. That gave him all the leverage because there really is no one else as good as Adrian Kempe projected to be available."
- Mark Lazarus [07:32]: “Now, if you're not already great, you're screwed. Unless you're going to develop completely from within every year... Now we're going to find a weak free agent market. Guys aren't going to make it to free agency.”
2. Consequences for Non-Contenders and the “Middle Class”
[07:32–10:48]
Key Points:
- Harder for Rebuilders: Teams coming out of rebuilds (like San Jose and Chicago) can't look to free agency to add star power—they must draft and develop or trade for growth.
- Max Bultman [08:38]: “The Sharks... may have to do this almost entirely internally or via trade.”
- Eric Stevens [08:51]: “What good is having a ton of money if you're not going to have anybody out there that, you know, in terms of at least a game-changing type of free agent?”
- Contracts for “Middle Class” Players: With top stars locked up and teams needing to hit the salary floor, average players will start earning premium contracts.
- Mark Lazarus [09:45]: “You're going to see a lot of guys getting $8 million that you thought were $5 million players because that money has to go somewhere.”
3. Pacific Division Deep Dive—Kings, Ducks, and Sharks
[11:21–21:27]
LA Kings' Identity
- Emphasis on Defense: Kings are reverting to their defensive, checking-focused identity after a slow start. They win tight, low-scoring games.
- Eric Stevens [11:58]: “They're not going to get in track meets with others. They want to keep the scores down and be opportunistic.”
- Goaltending: Darcy Kuemper’s strong play is a key reason for the club's early season stability.
Statistical Oddities
- Strange Trends: Kings’ defensive numbers show low goals against, but surprisingly high high-danger chances against, attributed to offseason changes and defensive pair adjustments.
Pacific Power Rankings / Betting Odds
[16:03–17:17]
- Kings Not Favorites: Kings have the third-best odds to win the Pacific; Eric Stevens predicts they settle into a Wild Card or third in the division.
- Eric Stevens [16:21]: "I would say that's a little too high... I still see Edmonton getting their stuff together... eventually the cream is going to rise to the top."
Anaheim Ducks’ Surprising Surge
[17:17–24:11]
- Explosive Young Offense: Ducks' youth movement led by Leo Carlsson and Cutter Gauthier is delivering offense; Beckett Sennecke (19) has also been a revelation.
- Defensive Struggles: Anaheims' defense, adapting to Joel Quenneville's system, remains porous—bad underlying numbers suggest the bottom could fall out if they don’t improve.
- Eric Stevens [18:04]: “They've got one part of their game together—which is the offensive side... the other side... is still in construction.”
- Eric Stevens [19:11]: “They've been terrible defensively for years… but I think there is a path for them to get better.”
- Comparisons: Sennecke’s playing style compared to a young Corey Perry—fearless and willing to take punishment at the net.
4. The Devils and Handling Star Injuries (Jack Hughes)
[25:46–34:59]
Hughes Injury Fallout
- Team Struggles: Devils’ shaky depth (even before Hughes' injury) is now truly exposed. Dawson Mercer will need to step up but cannot be Hughes’ replacement.
- Shayna Goldman [27:45]: “You're asking [Dawson Mercer] to not just shift back to center, but, oh, replace the MVP of this team. Like, it's a huge ask.”
- Survival Strategy: Success will come from the team adjusting its play style—not from Mercer or others “doing a Jack Hughes impersonation.”
- Max Bultman [28:56]: “If Dawson Mercer is coming up in the lineup and trying to do what Jack Hughes does, they're going to lose a lot of games.”
- Trade Market Rumors: Devils may seek a trade for a 3C, but aren’t in the market for a star like Nazem Kadri.
Jack Hughes—Injury Concerns
- Durability Questions: This is shaping up to be his sixth season missing significant time, but not all are recurring injuries.
- Shayna Goldman [32:21]: “If [shoulder issues] become a reoccurring theme... you could put the injury-prone tag on him. This one, it's a freak accident.”
- Mark Lazarus [34:59]: “The best ability is availability, right? It’s a cliche but it’s true.”
5. Most Troubling Teams: Flames, Leafs, Wild, Blues
[37:01–56:12]
Calgary Flames
- Goaltending Bright Spot: Dustin Wolf’s play is a major plus, but the offense beyond Kadri is inadequate.
- Shayna Goldman [37:31]: “They don’t have enough finishing talent—Nazem Kadri against the world sometimes.”
- Kadri’s Trade Value: Multiple teams (Montreal, Toronto) are tossed out as fitting trade destinations, with the humor of a possible "Kadri sweepstakes."
Toronto Maple Leafs—Organizational Crisis
- Flawed Construction: GM Brad Treliving leaned too hard into toughness/defense, sacrificing skill and failing to replace Mitch Marner after his offseason departure.
- Shayna Goldman [39:53]: “I just feel like the Leafs went too defensively minded with things instead of...the fact that they needed scoring depth.”
- No Easy Fix: Max Bultman defends the attempt but notes the salary structure doomed any hope at replacing lost stars. Mark Lazarus highlights the "damned if you do, damned if you don't" nature of managing this core.
- Max Bultman [44:39]: “I'm not saying I'm not worried about the Leafs. I'm just saying I'm not like, how could they be in this position? This is where it ends up when you fail for a whole generation of those players.”
- Lack of Direction: Concern over coaching staff synergy and the organization’s lack of a clear "vision" moving forward.
Minnesota Wild
- Trapped by Success: Wild have a respectable core but seem stuck after conservative moves instead of getting younger or faster when cap space opened up.
- Shayna Goldman [49:07]: “You need to get a little bit younger, a little bit faster, and they're like, oh, we're just going to extend some veterans and just hand out some money this way.”
- Mark Lazarus [48:48]: “They're in the worst kind of limbo... they've got some stars, but not enough around it to make it a contender year after year.”
- Window Worries: Have to maximize years of Kaprizov and value deals before time runs out.
St. Louis Blues
- No Upside Detected: Blues are simply a bad team after years of mediocrity. The offseason moves didn’t address the lack of top scorers; goaltending is failing, little hope of improvement.
- Shayna Goldman [52:51]: "They have a lot of good forwards, but you don't look at it and go, well, they have a ton of game breakers... now the fact that both goaltenders are just god awful."
Structural Problems—NHL Team Building in 2025
- No Quick Turnarounds: With weak free agent classes and flatter standings, teams can’t rebuild midseason via trades or July free-agent splashes.
- Mark Lazarus [51:15]: “Parody is so insane right now... the trade deadline is going to be quiet. Summer free agency is going to be a complete dud... there's no winning for [stuck] teams.”
6. Memorable Quotes & Moments
- Mark Lazarus [07:32]: “If you're not already great, you're screwed. Unless you're able to develop completely from within every year.”
- Eric Stevens [11:58]: “It's almost part of their ethos to check first, check second, check third, and then create.”
- Max Bultman [28:56]: “If Dawson Mercer is coming up in the lineup and trying to do what Jack Hughes does, they're going to lose a lot of games that way.”
- Shayna Goldman [39:53]: “Hiring Brad Treliving... you're kind of getting what you paid for, right?”
- Mark Lazarus [48:48]: “They're in the worst kind of limbo... they've got some stars, but not enough around it.”
- Shayna Goldman [52:51]: “They have a lot of good forwards, but you don't look at it and go, well, they have a ton of game breakers... now the fact that both goaltenders are just god awful.”
- Max Bultman [55:11]: “We're not just sitting here saying, like, who are the four worst teams in the NHL?... these are the teams that, both about this year and the big picture, worry you.”
7. Timestamps for Notable Segments
| Timestamp | Segment | |-----------|---------| | 02:49 | Opening on Kempe’s contract—context for the deal, roster management | | 07:32 | Decline of impactful NHL free agency, implications for team building | | 11:21 | Pacific Division round-up: Kings’ identity, odds | | 17:17 | In-depth on the resurgent Anaheim Ducks and their vulnerabilities | | 25:46 | Shayna Goldman joins: Impact of Jack Hughes' injury on Devils | | 37:01 | Segment: Troubling teams—Flames, Maple Leafs, Wild, Blues | | 52:51 | St. Louis Blues analysis and general NHL team-building challenges | | 55:11 | Wrapping up: The real concern is about big-picture trajectories, not just standings |
Summary Flow
The episode delivers broad, interlocking analysis that weaves player contracts, organizational direction, talent development, and macro league trends into a unified narrative. The group frequently contextualizes individual team moves within broader league shifts—namely, skyrocketing contracts, disappearing free agency opportunities, and increasing pressure on draftees to fulfill roster gaps.
For teams in the middle of the standings or on the playoff bubble, this landscape looks especially bleak. The episode closes with the refrain that in today’s NHL, teams may not be able to rebuild on the fly—so smart drafting and internal talent are more important than ever, while simply “waiting for free agency” is falling out of touch with reality.
For First-Time Listeners
This summary covers the full content segment of the episode — all high-level analysis, team breakdowns, and candid panelist reactions — omitting ads, intros, and outros. The show offers robust, accessible insight for fans tracking team-building trends, contracts, and the state of competition in the NHL.