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- [00:00]
Max Boltman
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- [00:13]
Max Boltman
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- [00:15]
Mark Lazarus
Same tee from the same tour.
- [00:17]
Max Boltman
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- [00:36]
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- [02:35]
Mark Lazarus
This is the Athletic Hockey show.
- [02:50]
Max Boltman
Hey, everybody. Max Boltman here alongside Mark Lazarus for another episode of the Athletic Hockey Show. And we are joined today by Eric Stevens, who frankly has the, the news of the day here. Adrian kempe signing the eight year, $85 million extension with the Kings. Eric, huge move for LA.
- [03:06]
Eric Stevens
Yeah, you know, it's funny how teams tend to do this on their off day, their quote unquote off day in between games and it tends to be the time when they get their business done. But yeah, no, this is, you're right, Max. This is big for them and he's the guy that they had to sign. You know, let's, you know, to, to be frank, they're obviously a competitive club. They're, you know, they're a win now club even though they haven't won enough. But that's how they're built. And frankly they don't have say, you know, the prospects in their system. They don't have someone that they can just readily look at and say, okay, well we can maybe part with him because this guy, you know, prospect X is it is our future. He's our future top line right wing or whatsoever. No, Adrian Kempe is their guy right now. He's their best player. And I think actually for what wound up to be the amount, the 85 million over eight years, what the number came in at, I think it's actually something that is going to be fairly agreeable for both sides. It's probably a little bit more than what the LA imagined initially, but we see what, we see what the salary cap is going and we see what, you know, high level, elite level or top level, at least right wings get and so to at least get them underneath 11 and under, what they're paying for Drew Doughty, I think they managed to do okay.
- [04:32]
Mark Lazarus
Yeah, it's interesting. Like if Adrian Kempe had made it to the summer, he would have been the bell of the ball and he would have gotten a lot more than $10.6 million a year. That said, he might not even be a $10.6 million winner. He's a great player, don't get me wrong. He's a, he's a game changing player, but he's on pace like 25 goals this year. He's not exactly tearing up at a 40 goal season a few years ago. He's a very, very good, you know, 80 point player, I would say on, on average in a league that's full of 100 point guys now. So is this, you know, is this an overpay? Is this an underpay or like you said, is this like right on target?
- [05:07]
Eric Stevens
You know, last. He's a fascinating case because of some of those things that you allude to. Because you're right, if you compare him to say other quote unquote, top wingers, career highs of 41 goals, 73 points. In some ways they sort of don't measure up to the who, who we think are the top forwards in the league, the top wingers, top scorers in the league. I think what that though illustrates is a, like I said, that what the going rate is for a top line right wing, a top line scorer, A and then B, his meaning to the Kings, he's their best player. His, he is massively important for them. And so I think that also really increased his value. It would be different, you know, say if, if, if he had lesser numbers or say if he was maybe the second or third best player on the Kings team. No, he's the best guy right now. And, and they, and they don't have say, no one necessarily really waiting in the wings. You know, it's really Quinn Byfield maybe, but he's a center, you know, and he's probably going to be their first line center. He's sort of a different animal. So yeah, I think it's a combination of the two. I think, you know, the fact that he's coming up or he came up for his deal right now at this very time with the cap number jumping as it is, was perfect for him. But you're right, it's a fascinating thing in terms of him. He's unnecessarily what you think of as a 10, near 11 million type guy. But maybe for the Kings he is that.
- [06:52]
Max Boltman
Dom's model has him at $9.3 million market values. Last. So that's to your second point. But really I think the keys in the first thing you said, if he makes it to market, he's the bell of the ball that gives him all the leverage because there really is no one else as good as Adrian Kempe projected to be available on the market. And that to me gave the Kings two choices. Are you going to trade him and rebuild when Anze Kopitar retires or are you going to sign him and stay competitive? And from that lens, I don't think it was much of a choice at all. I think they had to do this because there's just no way to replace him. I mean that's kind of the other side to this angle, as is. Like what is the free agent class going to look like next summer. What is the free agent class going to look like for the next four summers?
- [07:33]
Mark Lazarus
Oh my God. I remember just a couple of years ago we were talking about the 2026. You know, you and I cover teams that are in these long rebuilds, Detroit and Chicago and we're like dot 2026 this summer. That's when you'll be able to expit. That's when you'll be able to get your Marian Hosa. That's when you'll be able to get your supercharged free agent and you know, Jack Eichel, Kirill caprize off Connor McDavid, Kyle Conner, Marty Naches, Adrian Kempe. Now it's what Alex Tuck, an aging Artemi Panarin, Rasmus Anderson. Like how are you supposed to get better in this league? Now this is the, the irony of like for years and years and years, so many teams lost their best players because of a flat salary cap. For the last, you know, even not even flat before COVID year after year contenders would have to shed salaries. Now everyone gets to keep their players. That's great. But now if you're not already great, you're screwed. Unless you're going to be able to develop completely from within every year. Now we're going to find a weak free agent market. Guys aren't going to make it to free agency. Your Mitch Marners are going to be the exceptions, not the rules. Now.
- [08:30]
Max Boltman
Yeah, I think about the teams that are coming out of, you know, their rebuilds right now are starting to or, or wanting to.
- [08:36]
Shayna Goldman
Right.
- [08:36]
Max Boltman
Chicago would be one of them. Eric, you cover another one in San Jose.
- [08:39]
Jeremy Rutherford
Right?
- [08:39]
Max Boltman
Like the Sharks have drafted really well. I'm sure they were hoping to have a nice free agent prize at the end of all this too. And it just may not be available for them. They may have to do this almost entirely internally or via trade.
- [08:51]
Eric Stevens
Yeah, you know what, it's a great point because I think there were, there was some quiet rumblings even dating back to when Leon Dry Seidel was, you know, at least coming up for his deal. Air in line and there were the, the possible connections. Well, because Hassel Plotner is a, you know, German owner and you know, maybe they could kind of start bring building up a contingent there and they'd have all this money available and. No, you're right. I mean, yeah, what good is having, you know, a ton of money if you. There's not going to be anybody out there that, you know in terms of at least a game changing type of free agent? I guess you Know, in their case, you know, they'll just throw, they'll just throw 14, 15 million at Macklin, celebrate celebrity and make sure he's locked up.
- [09:39]
Max Boltman
But I'm sure they want to support him with, with and surround him with like good veterans and right as they're coming out. So it's a tricky situation to be in.
- [09:46]
Mark Lazarus
This is going to wind up, I think benefiting the middle class of the NHL which was almost dying. Right. Because some of these teams have to get to the cap floor like a Chicago again next year. Like these guys. Bedard's next contract won't be kicking well. It'll be kicking in next year, but a lot of these guys aren't going to be after that. And when they start moving some of their older veterans that have been these stopgaps, they're going to have to throw money at somebody just to get to the cap floor. These non cap teams and you're going to see a lot of guys getting $8 million that you thought were $5 million players because that money has to go somewhere. That's great. I got no problem with that. Power to the players. But it's, it's not as easy as.
- [10:19]
Max Boltman
It used to be.
- [10:20]
Mark Lazarus
Used to be able to say we're going to go out and get our big free agent in 2029. Yeah, you're probably not. That's just not how it's going to work anymore.
- [10:26]
Eric Stevens
Yeah. What are your second line wingers making right now? You're right. Your second line wingers are going to be seven, eight, maybe you know, a little bit north of that now. And they saw your third liners are going to wind up making about five or so. And maybe people will be good with that, you know, with a, with the big bump in the cap. But that's going to be the reality as you alluded to.
- [10:48]
Max Boltman
And there are teams and the Red Wings might be one of them that, that got some really good deals done right before this. And I'm sure that a year ago they were thinking, oh, Lucas Raymond at 8 million, Moritz cider at 8 and a half. These are going to age amazing. We're going to have so much space to push in for a guy now. It's like now you're just kind of efficient for the sake of being efficient. There's really no one out there that, I mean you got room to extend your own players and that's the win is you can keep every player, everybody. But there's really not that that bell.
- [11:13]
Mark Lazarus
Of the ball drafting is becoming, is becoming A lot more important than general managing, as it were. Like your scouting team is almost more important than your roster building at this point.
- [11:22]
Max Boltman
Yeah, the amateur scouting is, is defining, I think, for franchises. Let's zoom out here to talk about the Pacific as a whole, Eric, because earlier this week, I mean, there was a point a few days ago where it was on top. La, Anaheim, San Jose. I was petitioning to rename it the Stevens Division. I haven't heard back yet from the NHL on that one, but we'll see how that shakes out. But still, the, the Kings and the Ducks on top there. I don't think people would have been floored to see the Kings there. The Ducks obviously have been one of the better stories of the year as well. But talk to us about like, how the Kings have done this because they're an interesting team. They're not like going along playing fire wagon hockey here.
- [11:58]
Eric Stevens
No, no. And that's. They're not their style either. And you know what? I'm, I'm with you, Match in terms of like, for the, over the first few weeks, as they, you know, kind of bum bumbled about here, they kind of got off to a slow start. They managed to get into overtimes and pick up points here and there, but I didn't know really what their identity was. You know, I. Whereas before, they were clearly one where they were defense focused, you know, heavy, and they still are, and they've gotten back to that. I think recently during this surge, especially during the road, you're seeing more Kings like hockey. I mean, Saturday was the picture perfect example of one nothing win in Ottawa where there was no time or space for anybody. I mean, that was not a Picasso that we saw there being played, but that was actually more like what the Kings want to win. That, that. That's how they want to win. That's, you know, that's how they are. It's almost part of their ethos to check first, check second, check third, and then create. But no, they've. They're getting some solid Gold standing. Darcy Kemper has been steady. I mean, he's, he's. I think he's proven over the past year, plus now that he's going to be in the Team Canada Gold's ending mix. So, you know, there, there is that, you know, the, it's. It's just the team, it's a, it's a solid team that, you know, they're not going to get in the track meets with, with others. They want to keep the scores down and be opportunistic when, you know, when they happen. You know, other than Kempe that we've talked about and the retiring Kopitar and Drew Doughty, it's just kind of a group of almost the anonymous guys, but just kind of a group of hard working guys, you know, that, that play responsible hockey and it's not exciting, but they're able to, they've been able to scratch out wins, particularly on the road, which is kind of a total flip flop from last year.
- [13:59]
Mark Lazarus
Actually, we're at the point of the year where I actually start paying attention to the numbers, right? Start believing the numbers, right? Looking for trends. And the Kings are baffling me because they're, they're, they're the usual Kings, right? They're top five in goals against per 60, they're top five in attempts against 60. They're top five in scoring chances against per 60. But they are in the bottom five in high danger chances against per 60. That's a really strange stat. Is there something, did that all happen in one game? How do you explain that stat? Because I don't understand how the math even works on a stat like that.
- [14:31]
Eric Stevens
Yeah, you know what? I, I, I, I could, numbers wise, I couldn't explain it as well. I, the way I see it, the way I explain it is, I think it's just indicative of the changes that they've, that they made that they had to make. How they end the off season. You know, they had to replace Vladislav Gabakov and I think some of that reflects that in terms of those high danger chain chances against. Because look, he was terrific for them last year. He was their best defenseman last year and he obviously parlayed that into a big time deal with the New York Rangers. But in doing that and the holes that were created and they filled with Brian Dumoulin and Cody Ceci. Look, I'm not going to sit here and say that, you know, they replace what Vladislav Gabakov and Jordan Spence gave them on the back end. They're kind of different types of players and those two that I mentioned, they struggled at that the very beginning. In fact, they had them as a pair. They were really bad in the first few games. They split them up. Had one plan with Dal, they had the other plan with Mikey Anderson. Now they've kind of reunited them because I, I think it took them, you know, those veterans some time to kind of get used to the system, kind of get used to the way the Kings did things. And so they've been better of late. But you know, I think a lot of that particularly was early on over this last stretch, and particularly over this. This road trip that they've had. They. They. They've cut a lot of that down.
- [16:04]
Max Boltman
Our friends at BETMG have the Kings with the third best odds to win the Pacific Division at plus 475. It's behind Vegas, plus 115. Oilers plus 260. Eric, I don't know how much you dabble in odds or anything like that, but does that sound about right to you? Too high? Too low?
- [16:22]
Eric Stevens
I would say that's a little too high. Yeah. I'm still not sold on them, you know, per se. I think there's still a lot of the element of the Kings are who they are, you know, to them. And I still see. I still see Edmonton getting their stuff together, even with all the issues that they have in Vegas, you know. Yeah, they're down in the standings a little bit right now, but I think that's more of a function of they just haven't played as many games as, you know, either LA or Anaheim or those that are above them. So eventually the cream, I think, is going to rise to the top and. And, you know, and I think LA will kind of sell into the spot that I. That I've seen them and that they've been in, which is they'll probably going to either play for third in the Pacific or, you know, or a wild card spot.
- [17:17]
Mark Lazarus
All right. I need to ask you about Anaheim. You're the Ducks guy. You hired Joel Quindley. You expect this team to become a possession monster, and they're certainly scoring a lot more than they were last year, but they're. They're actually kind of terrible defensively. They're giving up more scoring chances per hour in league than last year, and they were the worst team in the league at that last year. What. How sustainable is what they're doing? Like, they have so much talent, so much excitement, and so much skill and speed. Like, it's fun to watch them. They've got Lucas Dostal, who's playing very well. That 903 save percentage might not look that good, but it's great behind that defense because his goal saved above expected is terrific. It's like 11. How sustainable is what Anaheim is doing? Because all the underlying numbers say the bottom is going to fall out of this, but when you watch them, you're like, nah, this is legit. These guys are for real.
- [18:04]
Max Boltman
Yeah.
- [18:04]
Eric Stevens
You know, last. There's two ways I see to look at the Ducks right now. I, you know, it's almost like they've got one part of their game together, which is the offensive side of it. These young guys all kind of coming together all at once here and sort of exploding, you know, you know, with, with Leo Carlson and Cutter Gaultier kind of at the top of that. So you have that one part of that side of them that's kind of come together here and then you have that other start, the other side that still I think is in construction here, which is that, that defensive element of it. I know that they're, you know, they're still adjusting to, you know, Joel's, you know, more zone defensive system where they've been playing strictly man to man over the last few years, which I don't think was, you know, geared, quite frankly, you know, to what the personnel that they had on the back end. So I think there's, there's a little bit of that going on. It's, some of it's, you know, going to be mindset. I mean, you know, last you've seen it, I mean, they've been terrible defensively for years. Okay. This is, I mean, even before last year, I mean, they had some of the worst defensive metrics of the entire salary cap era. It was almost embarrassing how many grade 8 chances they would give a per period, much less per game. So it's, it's incrementally. I think it's incrementally gotten better in some ways and I think there's room to grow. And so, yeah, the sustainable part, you can say, no, it's not sustainable. You can't win six to five track meets every night. And there's a part of them that, that has been willing to engage in that. And I think Joel, you know, I think he knows this even. He even said earlier to me, you know, earlier this year that they're willing to trade scoring chances. It's, you know, it's, it's where those scoring chances are located, you know, that, that he's more concerned with. But I think that there is a path for them to get better, though. And so I think that that's where it can be sustainable. If you watch them from night to night, though, they're, they're competing with everyone and yes, they're not going to score four or five, six goals every single night. But the talent that they have on that team, you know, the way that it's been put together, the young guys that are exploding right now, some of the veterans that have been renewed, I mean, Chris Prider and even Jacob, Jacob Trua They've played very well on the outset and I don't. They play beyond what I think most people have expected right out of the gate. So that's helped them, certainly. But yeah, if they want to though, be serious. If they, if they, you know, this is a year where I think they're sort of playing with house money right now, right this moment. I don't, you know, they were looking to be in that playoff mix, so right now they're ahead of schedule. But I think if they, you know, they want to be serious, if they're going to think that they, you know, they can seriously do something this year. Yeah, they've obviously got to get better on that defensive side of the puck and at least, you know, not make it to where Lucas the stall is having to deal with having to make 10 bell saves every other shift.
- [21:27]
Max Boltman
One last thing I wanted to get you on with the Ducks, Eric. We've talked about Leo Carlson on the show. He's having a fantastic year, breakout. One of the best stories in the league so far. Couple other young guys though, for the Ducks who have really stood out, maybe even surpassed, like where, where I certainly, I think surpassed where we thought they would both be cut. Or Gauthier, who's got the 12 goals and 21 points in his first 18 and 19 year old. Beckett, Seneca. Not looking. Maybe on occasion, but a lot of the time not looking.
- [21:50]
Mark Lazarus
19.
- [21:51]
Max Boltman
He's been really productive. 6 goals, 6 assists in 18 games. More impressed by Gauthier at age. I think he's 22 now. Or Seneca at 19.
- [22:01]
Eric Stevens
Good question. I'm more impressed with Seneca if you frame it that way. Because I didn't see him. I saw him maybe contending for a spot on the roster. I saw him getting his nine games and then, okay, we're going to decide, you know, what are we going to do with him, are we going to keep him around, you know, are we going to keep them up to the world juniors, et cetera, whatsoever. I did not see him grabbing a top six spot and producing the way he has right now. And to your point, Max, you're right. There are times and periods where he definitely looks like a 19 year old player playing his first few games in the NHL. You know, whether it's defensively, maybe taking some, you know, ill advised penalties, you know, you, you can see where that's popped up. But you can also see the skill that he has. He's. He kind of reminds me, sort of remind me of a young Corey Perry in the sense that he's he's kind of long and lanky. He has no fear in going to the net and it, you know, I don't know if he has necessarily that, that, that, you know, that want and will to just, just be a nuisance to every single goaltender that's out there. But he's not shy about going to net and mixing it up and you know, maybe, you know, take taking a little bit of punishment as well in order to, you know, kind of announce his presence there around the crease. He's got great hands. He's got, he's got a great shot. And yeah, I know there's, there's a lot of young Corey Perry that I see in him.
- [23:38]
Max Boltman
And I said Gauche was 22, he's 21, so I guess so he's two years older than Seneca. They'll both turn one more year older in January. But yeah, I mean, when the Ducks were here and frankly when I was in Anaheim earlier this month, I, I number of times I checked my sheet to just go, who's 45? Like it was enough to tell me that, oh, this kid's like making an impact on the game. So really impressive stuff from Beckett. Seneca, one of many Ducks doing great things to begin this season. Let's take a quick break right there. We're gonna be right back with Shayna Goldman, talk, Jack Hughes, the Devils and more.
- [24:11]
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- [25:12]
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- [25:25]
Mark Lazarus
Up to.
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- [25:46]
Max Boltman
All right, we are back and we are joined now by Shayna Goldman. And Shayna, let's, let's get into this first because last week on the show Laz posed a question as to which Metro team you felt the most confident in. And I think last year resounding answer was the Devils. But obviously that is a very different outlook now that we've got a injury to Jack Hughes, a freak accident that is it's going to sideline him for potentially six to eight weeks here. And so I want to know from your perspective, we'll get to Laz in a second. But Shayna, like what does this do to the Devils and how do they survive a loss to. I mean it's not the first time Jack Hughes has been out, but it's, it's a important, it's the most important player on the Devils.
- [26:24]
Shayna Goldman
Yeah, I, I had some concerns before this injury because like you look at the Devils once Brett Pesci got hurt and their defensive game started getting a little sketchy there and it felt like the goaltending hasn't always been perfect. This year it's been some ups and downs and I think Allen helped pick up the pace when Markstrom was hurt and I think he played better for a minute there too. But that was like the first strike for me. And then you see Nico, he share who I thought had an excellent start like by late October start struggling. So then it was like, oh, like there are some issues below the surface you have to work out. Now you're down Jack Hughes and it's just devastating because it's not like he shares playing at this like unbelievable level like he was most of last year that you could be like, okay, it's fine because you can split him and Brad up and you have a really good top six. And look, Dawson Mercer is playing great. You could try shifting him back to center. He's played in Jack Hughes's place before. I just feel like there's too many things going wrong that now you're losing your best player that it just, it feels like this is your make or break moment.
- [27:24]
Mark Lazarus
That's what I was going to ask is, is Dawson Mercer A1C kind of player? Can he step into that role even for just a month or two and really kind of take on that Mantle? Because that's 22 minutes night, that's, you know, tons of power play time. That's your driving offensive force. Dawson Mercer might be the second best offensive player on this team, but is he capable of taking on what Hughes takes on every single night?
- [27:45]
Shayna Goldman
I'm going to give Jesper Brat the second best hat. Jack Hughes, I feel like he's so underrated, but I would say Mercer can be your 2C. But now you're 1C. But it's going to be really interesting because, like, you go back to his rookie season and it's funny, this was like my first Devil story when I was like covering the Devils for a minute. There was about Dawson Mercer and how well he stepped up in Jack Hughes's place and like he legitimately did. And I think he did all the little things right. He was doing the big things right. He was scoring goals, he was driving play, he was doing everything. They needed him more and then they've had him shift back to that role, you know, this season afterwards, and it just didn't work. And then you look at last year, not only is he on the third line, but he can't even shake it as the 3C for really the last two seasons. So he's finally back on track. But he's back on track now as a winger in the top six, which is where he belongs. So now you're asking him to not just shift back to center but, oh, replace the MVP of this team. Like, it's a huge ask. I think the fact that he's coming into it confident is a good thing. The fact that he has, you know, a past of doing it, another good thing. But you're going to need someone really good on his wing. Like, I really wonder if they're going to staple Brat to his wing, which they did, if I remember correctly, the first time around when he was a rookie and see if they can rekindle some of that magic and kind of carry that line.
- [28:57]
Max Boltman
I find that the teams that succeed when their star player goes out, like, it's usually not because someone comes in and replaces that guy. Like, if Dawson Mercer is coming up in the lineup and trying to do what Jack Hughes does, they're going to lose a lot of games that way. But if Dawson Mercer comes up and plays a Dawson Mercer kind of game, that I think is how you survive this. Right? Like your, your identity of a team necessarily has to change when you lose a player as good as Jack Hughes, doesn't it?
- [29:18]
Mark Lazarus
And this makes your team better when that happens too. Right. If you, if Guys take on that role. In the short term, it makes your team better. In the long term, it'll make this team better equipped for the playoffs if and when they get there. And you look, the good thing for the Devils here is they have the advantage of this great start they've had. They have a big cushion. So many of their so called competitors in the Eastern Conference are off to these lousy starts. So you don't have to worry about really being lapped by the field here. Like they can, they can muddle through these next six to eight weeks and when Hughes comes back, the Devil should still be in the thick of it. They're good enough that they should be able to get by and they have enough of a cushion that they should be able to withstand this even if it takes. Even if it is a big body blow.
- [29:55]
Eric Stevens
Yeah.
- [29:55]
Shayna Goldman
Like if you can get the whole team clicking now. Right. And then Jack Hughes comes like, it all falls into place. But like Max, your point about like Dawson Mercer can't be. Jack Hughes is so spot on because they have totally different games. Right. Like a big reason the Devils did not trade Dawson Mercer when I felt like he was everyone's trade trip. Like, oh, it's a waste of his talents if he's on the wing and he shouldn't be 3C because he's so much better than that. And all of that was true at the beginning of his career. But it's because he brings something different to the lineup than Nico and Jack and, and Brat too. Like you need someone like Dawson. Mercer has that dog in him.
- [30:23]
Mark Lazarus
He's.
- [30:24]
Shayna Goldman
He's everything those guys aren't. So he has to do his best right now and that'll definitely help. But I won't be surprised if they don't look to the trade market. Like, if I'm them, I'm looking for someone that could come in and maybe be the 3C when you know Jack Hughes is healthy and Mercer's back on the wing. Ideally like that I think could be the move right now just to like strengthen everything and give yourself a better depth approach because their bottom six isn't perfect still. And I think Cody Glass has been good when he's healthy, but you always have that, like when he's healthy. Tag there too.
- [30:53]
Max Boltman
Yeah. You're not making the Nazem Kadri push here if you're the New Jersey Devils, right?
- [30:57]
Mark Lazarus
Yeah.
- [30:57]
Eric Stevens
Yeah.
- [30:57]
Shayna Goldman
Right.
- [30:58]
Max Boltman
All right, so that's the Devil's side of this. The other side of this conversation, I think is about Jack Hughes and, and I think, you know, obviously this one sounds like it's a. It's a not. It's obviously a non hockey. It's a freak accident. But this is a player now who's missed or who, who's played 62 or fewer games in five of his first six seasons. It sounds like this will be six and seven. Now, if my math is correct on how many, how many games are in eight weeks, is there any concern here about this kind of trend for Jack? You.
- [31:23]
Jeremy Rutherford
Shayna.
- [31:24]
Shayna Goldman
Okay, so when we did player tears this year, we originally had Jack Hughes, as I remember. I won, See, and we were asking everybody, do you think he's injury prone? And is that why you'd move him down? And they were like, I would not put that tag on him yet, but I'm still moving him to 2A. Like, I think he needs to, you know, like, get up there a little bit better. And I get the argument, but it's like when he has a shoulder issue, I think if that becomes a reoccurring theme, and I know he has had multiple shoulder issues now, but if that's the reoccurring theme moving forward, I think you could put that injury prone tag on him. This one, it's a freak accident. It's just like really bad luck. I feel like guys like Stamcos in the past have gotten that injury prone tag too, when it was just like multiple freak things that just have. It's not your fault that these things happen. It's not like, okay, you have a groin issue and every couple weeks it's the same thing. Like, someone like Dr. Demko deserves that tag, but I don't think Jack uses there yet because of this situation. I think if his shoulders don't hold up or his game slows down at all, and it didn't obviously, in the first month of action because of that, then you can.
- [32:21]
Mark Lazarus
Yeah, I think typically a quote unquote, injury prone guy is a guy who gets soft tissue injuries. I think of like a Peter Morazic who every year would have a groin injury every year. Then. Then you start questioning preparation, you start questioning his training, you start questioning just his body in general. When. When it's a different kind of injury and it's. It's breaks or it's freak accidents like this. I mean, this is, this is. I'm almost amazed this doesn't happen more often. I don't want to make light at all of what happened to Jack Hughes, but we see, you know, these NHL contracts will have like, you're not allowed to go skiing during the season.
- [32:50]
Max Boltman
Yeah.
- [32:50]
Mark Lazarus
And all these clauses to protect. You can't go water skiing, you can't do this, you can't do that. And guys just get hurt. Brian Leach slipped on the ice outside of his apartment. Corey Crawford fell down the stairs at a concert. Like, we all fall down and get hurt. I'm a klutz. I get. Happens to me all the time. It's almost amazing that this doesn't happen more often where serious injuries happen away from the rink, just by being a human where we're soft and squishy and very vulnerable, aren't we?
- [33:15]
Max Boltman
We sure are. And frankly, I don't even think that guys like Marasic who have the persistent soft. I don't think it's their fault. I don't think that they. You can, you know, train out of that necessarily, especially once you get to a certain age. But I do think it enters my mind when I think about, you know, the bankable, the best players in the league. Like last, last. When we were having that segment last week, you kind of threw out there like Jack Hughes, fringe top five player. That to me would be one of the things that keeps him out of it is to be a top five player. For me, I need you playing. Maybe it's not 82 games a year, but I need to know I'm getting 70, 75. It's just hard to be in that tier. I think without that.
- [33:47]
Mark Lazarus
Yeah, he's. He's got the talent and the skill and the watchability of a top five player, but he has not been able to have that complete, like 120 point season because he's always missing time. You're absolutely right.
- [33:58]
Shayna Goldman
When you get to the top of the league. And this was something we were like debating every single player in that top 10 for tier one. Right. It's like when you get to one, see, it was players with nitpicks, but that's POS and Capriof nitpicks. Like, this is now your next level. But when you get to the top of the league, that's what you have to do. You want to talk about the best centers in the world. Like, you have to go through every single detail of their game and be like, okay, they. Their skating is 1% less than the other guy. And you know what? This guy takes more penalties in these big moments. And that it's going to add up in the grand scheme of things. You don't care. Why would you give a. If Leon Jerry said it takes a couple extra penalties, he's one of the best players in the world. But when you're going to be comparing him Today to Nathan McKinnon, you're going to be like going through those like nooks and crannies. You have to do it. So yes, this is something that's going to hold him out of that very top of the league. And it's just, it's out of his control. But like, sorry, it's a hard league for a reason. There's a reason like Kale McCarthy didn't win the Norris a couple of years ago when he missed 20 games. He was the best defenseman in his minutes. But when you're going head to head with literally the best players in the world, like, you have to make some distinction somewhere.
- [35:00]
Mark Lazarus
The best ability is availability. Right? It's a cliche, but it's true. If you're not there, you're not the best player in the world.
- [35:05]
Max Boltman
That's right. It's a cliche for a reason. That being said, I think we're all obviously wishing the best for Jack Hughes. We're going to take a quick break right there. We're going to come back and talk about the teams that have us the most worried so far this season.
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- [36:20]
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- [37:02]
Max Boltman
All right, we're back and we're going to wrap today by talking about the teams that have us the most worried at this point in the season. We're about a month and a half into this month and a week, so it's early, but we also have a pretty good amount of data, Shane, on some teams, and I want to get your read on a couple in particular. First, let's start with the team that's in last place. That's the Calgary Flames, 13 points. They're bringing up the rear. It seems like, you know, fire everywhere. I do know the underlying numbers for them are a little more favorable. So can you kind of help us square what to make of the Calgary Flames right now?
- [37:32]
Shayna Goldman
Yeah, I mean, listen, they have Dustin Wolf and that's a huge advantage for them. We saw it last year, right? Like, he was the reason they were anywhere near the playoff picture. I just think the team in front of him is lacking. I think at the end of the day, that's. That's what it is. They don't generate enough offense. They don't have enough finishing talent. Right. Like, it's Nazem Kadri against the world sometimes in Calgary. So I think there's a lot of room for improvement on both ends of the ice, but you look at it at the same time and go, that's okay. Because the big picture's in mind. Like, you see the underlying numbers go, well, there's more that they can play up to. And it's like, okay, if they do, they do great. If they don't, whatever. You just don't want to burn out your starting goalie. Who is going to be your franchise goaltender. That's my, like, one and only thought with them when I watch them. Like, because it's not even when you watch the Blues. You go, okay, why aren't you scoring up to expectations? The Flames, I'm like, okay, so you're not. Just don't hurt Dustin Wolf and we'll be fine.
- [38:23]
Mark Lazarus
Where would you wish cast Nazem Kadri to, like, where's the best fit in the league that you see for. Everyone always needs a to see and he's like the quintessential to see where does he fit best right now.
- [38:33]
Shayna Goldman
Okay. I would love, like a Nazim Kadri sweepstakes because I just think it would be so much fun because I feel like the Leafs would be involved and then lose out on him, and I think that would be great.
- [38:45]
Max Boltman
I don't think they can afford him. I don't know who they could give up for Nazem Kadri right now.
- [38:49]
Shayna Goldman
Nope. I would wonder a little bit about a Montreal. I feel like they could make some sense. I feel like their second line had a lot of scoring pop this year so far, and it's really exciting, but with the new hook injury, I'm like, you know what? They could use a little bit of help. And they're one of those younger teams that I think could. I think when you're a young team, you could go way veterany, right. And totally screw yourselves. And you think of, like the Sabers when they sign like those so deals like they weren't ready for them in that moment. I think the fact that they took such a measured approach this summer, you know, I think that allows them to go for a veteran now because they went young, as they should. Right.
- [39:27]
Mark Lazarus
So let's look ahead now and, you know, you already brought them up, but we always have to ask, how does this affect. The Leafs are a tire fire right now. You know, they're not that bad. But in Toronto, it feels like the apocalypse right now. Auston Matthews is hurt. He wasn't scoring at his crazy rate of a couple years ago. Anyway, Joseph Wall looked good against Chicago Saturday night. That's encouraging because goaltending's been such a step back this year. But what has to be fixed in Toronto? Can this be salvaged?
- [39:54]
Shayna Goldman
I mean, everything I. Listen, I think these are problems at every single level. And I'm not going to be like, oh, wow, I told you so, but I'm sorry. Like hiring Brad Tree Living, you're kind of getting what you paid for, right? Like, to me, he's not this inventive draw manager. And then it was that overall direction to go, tougher and grittier, and I understand teams needing that. When you see the Panthers win back to back, I think there's that, like, push towards it even more. But it's hard skill. It's being tough to play against in a different way. And I just feel like the Leafs went too defensively minded with things instead of, I don't know, the fact that they needed scoring depth when they had 100 point Mitch Marner on their roster. So it feels like this is just a situation of their own making. Right. They hired this general manager. I don't think he's done the right thing. He hired this coach who, I'm sorry, I don't think Craig Baruby is the coach. For a team that needs more scoring when it matters the most. Yes, they need to be more battle tested, but that's not problem A to me. Right? And then the roster is flawed and it's a result of that. And I think guys are underperforming. You're like, well, who could have predicted this?
- [40:56]
Max Boltman
Let me push back on that a little bit here because I, I see your point. Right? The, the, we all called for years for the Leafs to get stronger, tougher, more defensive. I think for good reason though. And I think what you're seeing now is not that the Leafs, you know, leaned too far into that identity. It is that they lost Mitch Marner. And yeah, they couldn't afford as much of a supporting cast when they had him and Nylander and Matthews and Tavares because they were all making those huge salaries. That's the league. That's, that's the salary cap. You cannot have this many offensive minded players, this many point producers and afford it. I, I think the issue is not that they overdid it, it's just that they lost Mitch Marner. Like there's just not anyone out there they could have replaced him with. And so in, in some ways it's a mess of their making their, their asset list because of how hard they pushed. I don't have a problem with how hard they pushed. You can quibble with the players they pushed for right now. I did think Scott Laughton was a good fit for them last year. I'm not going to quibble and say that that's worked great. But I, I do think this is. They, they did what we all said they should do and I don't think they were wrong to do it. It just didn't work out. They took the Panthers in seven games.
- [41:57]
Mark Lazarus
Has there been a more catastrophic trade than that, that Lawton trade?
- [42:01]
Eric Stevens
I mean, it was bad.
- [42:02]
Mark Lazarus
He's no better than David Camp who they're paying to go away and they gave up a first rounder to do it.
- [42:07]
Max Boltman
I'm not defending that like it's, it's a great trade or something. I'm just saying I don't, I'm not confused about why they did that. I don't think it was a bad idea from the jump. I, Shane I do think you panned that trade at the time, so you can definitely victory lap that 100%.
- [42:20]
Shayna Goldman
No, wait, I'm sorry. I just. The. They took the Panthers to seven games is what we heard from so many Leafs fans for months. Like, hang the banner.
- [42:28]
Max Boltman
I'm not saying hang the banner. I'm saying, like, they. That is how close they were.
- [42:32]
Shayna Goldman
Yes. Right. Like, it wasn't that much.
- [42:34]
Max Boltman
If that goes the other way, they're still without Mitch Marner, probably. But yeah, it's like, that's why they did that. They did that to push the Panthers and they pushed him harder than anyone else did.
- [42:44]
Shayna Goldman
I think if you're gonna lean as defensive as they did, right. And like, I'm not faulting getting Chris Tanovan players like that. Right. Like, that makes sense for them. And I think you see, like, how Benoit has become a really good defenseman for them. Like, those kinds of players. Sure. If you're going to go that route, though, like, you already know you have a scoring problem, that it's like, okay, so now you need to. To fix that. And that you had that problem with Marner, like, giving Max Domi more minutes wouldn't have been the answer. Right. You look at just, like, things along the way and it's like, okay, Michelle, yes, I get the vision. Right. Here's a playmaker. Maybe if you put him with better guys, he'll be good. And that's the kind of bet you should be making. But I think you needed more certainty than that. Right. And you were never. If you're the Leafs, you're never replacing Mitch Marner in free agency. It doesn't happen. Players don't make it there. And we know that he's, you know, he. He technically didn't even make it there because he got traded. But I think it's like, you need to find that balance because you can't just bet on the fact, like, okay, well, if you can keep games to 2, nothing score, you know, 3 to 1 because your defense is so good, like, you can't win in this league. And I think we see teams like the Oilers, the fact that they thrive and make it to two straight Stanley cup finals is. Is proof of that. Right? Like, you can get by with a more chaotic approach. I think if you can have that pace and tempo and it's like, that should have been their bread and butter. Maybe they should have leaned into it a little bit more while fixing the fringes.
- [43:59]
Max Boltman
But I think that, like, if the Oilers never win a Cup, we're all going to be able to point to one reason why they didn't win a cup and it's because they never had a goalie, right? Had the Leafs leaned more into offense, it would have been the exact same way we would be having this exact same conversation. And it was because they never got serious about having hard depth, about, you know, a defensive identity, right? Like they leaned into the thing that they obviously needed to try to fix and it just didn't work. Like, I'm not saying that that it worked. I'm saying that like it. They tried the approach that was the obvious approach to take and it failed. I am extremely worried about them. I'm not saying I'm not worried about the Leafs. I'm just saying I'm not like, how could they be in this position? This is where it ends up when you fail for a whole generation of those players. Sorry, last.
- [44:40]
Mark Lazarus
My God, how much would we have torched them had they just run it back yet again? Like, there's no, there's no winning for this team.
- [44:47]
Shayna Goldman
There really isn't. And that's what makes it even better. But it's like they're leaning to like, we need to collect everyone's ex captains because we don't have leadership. It's like, I feel like it's like they either half ass their experiments and then they change course and it's like, well, none of it's going to work because now all of a sudden they're going to start scrambling for what, like more offense. But instead they were like, we'll bring in Dakota Joshua and here are more players of the same. Like, I just don't think that there's a strong enough vision at the top. And I think that's where it's like, okay, so you went defensive. What do you do now? You can't just do one thing in this league, right? You can't just say, okay, we're going to fix one thing and that's it. Like, you need to be like, okay, we need to be a well rounded threat that has three scoring lines. Okay, what are you going to do about that? Well, you're going to get fourth line, guys. You're going to bring in Mitchelli, who is a healthy scratch in Utah at the end. I just, I have concerns. I just. It's everywhere. And now the other part of it too, that I don't. It's getting talked about in Leafs land because everything does like let's we know that is the Lane Lambert, Derek, Land of it all. I, I am so perplexed at Derek Lalonde because I thought he was so good with Tampa Bay as a PK coach, as a defensive coach. And yes, they've brought in other coaches and it still worked because John Cooper is very good at his job and they have really good players. But I think we saw like a little bit of a step back from Tampa when Lalon, left, goes to Detroit and is horrible at the things that he should be good at. And now Lane Lambert leaves and I don't think everyone was like clamoring for Lambert per se, but like, I think we know he could be an elite defensive coach, an elite PK coach. And he showed, hey, he can do it away from Barry Trouts. Derek Lalon goes there. Okay, go back to your strengths. Maybe. Maybe like Lambert, you struggled at being a head coach in your first go around, but you can go back to being a very good assistant coach. What is happening with that?
- [46:32]
Max Boltman
I don't know. Like, I.
- [46:33]
Eric Stevens
It's.
- [46:34]
Max Boltman
It's always hard to parse coaching dynamics, right? All I know is the Red Wings pk, as you well know, Shane, it was a disaster last year too, right? So it's like that is not out of nowhere necessarily there. And you never knew how much of that is Bob Bugner, who was technically in charge of it in Detroit, how much of it is the lone. Obviously the struggles have certainly seemed to follow him. To kind of loop this all together, though. Like, when I talk about this with Toronto, I'm not saying I'm very. I'm much more worried about them, for example, than I am the Calgary Flames. Not in terms of making the playoffs this season because I think the Leafs are much more likely to make the playoffs this year than the Calgary Flames, but more about the direction overall, because the Flames, like you alluded last, like, they could probably trade. They're probably going to trade Nazem Kadri. They're probably going to trade Rasmus Anderson. This is now as obvious of a rebuild situation as there is maybe in the NHL. Like, you're going to kickstart this and you have two premium assets to kickstart it with. I don't know, Laz, how the Leafs get out of this. Because you have a great bargain contract in John Tavares and it's going to go to waste if they're not able to progress further than this, right? Like, you have your star players, but you clearly don't have enough of really anything and you have no assets because of the obvious, what you did, which was chasing it while you had that window And I have no idea where Toronto goes now from this.
- [47:49]
Mark Lazarus
Yeah, it feels like Toronto is where Chicago was eight, nine years ago, where Pittsburgh was six, seven years ago, where Tampa was maybe two years ago, we thought. Except those teams had multiple championships to sit on. And Toronto is in that same situation where they've got some stars, but they don't have enough around it to make it into a contender year after year. And they're locked into these contracts and they don't have any banners hanging from that era. So they have no goodwill from the fans to lean on, no good faith from the hockey world to lean on. And they're just sitting there with these onerous contracts and really, really, really amazingly good players and not enough of them and nowhere to go with them. They're in the worst kind of a limbo because, you know, Chicago can do the kind of rebuild that they've done over the last. This is just scorched earth. Burn the shire to the ground. Rebuild because they have three banners and Pittsburgh eventually is going to get there. They're kind of playing with our emotions right now, but when they do, they will have the same kind of goodwill. Toronto, there's no goodwill in Toronto. There is none at all. And it's not an enviable position to be in right now.
- [48:48]
Max Boltman
Not as toxic of a market here necessarily, in terms of the. Well, I shouldn't say that about the market. Not as toxic of a discourse as in Toronto, but the Minnesota Wilder in a similar situation like that, right? Like, they're one of these teams that has stars, but they haven't really ever won and they are off to a tough start and I wonder what you make of them.
- [49:08]
Shayna Goldman
Yeah, it's tough because, like, again, you get into that nitpicking zone, right? When you talk about the best players in the world and like the Austin Matthews and William Nylander is not going to take away what they are, but they don't do it when it matters most. So if you're going to commit a ton of cap to these guys, I think you need to know that they can do it. Well, I don't want to fault Nylander because he's really good in the playoffs, but like with Matthews, right, Like, you needed that if you're paying these huge star players that they're going to do it all of the time. Minnesota at least knows that. Kuroka Priests off. I get it. You're going to say, oh, it's an overpayment. Everyone said in the freaking out. Because then you see the other contracts that Come out afterwards. Right? I don't have an issue with it because it is really hard to get star players. And Kruger Kufritsov is one of the best wingers in the world and he can do it in the playoffs. So can Matt Boldy. And I think you figure it all out and you go, that is fine. Right? Like, it works for them. I think, too, when you're a team like Minnesota, you don't have the goodwill to be like, well, look, we're Vegas. We're a perennial contender. We're not going to overpay. You. Like, you're Minnesota, you're barely getting out of the first round ever. You have to be like, okay, our star player here is everything that you can want more, because without you, they're completely toast. So I think they're in an okay position in that they have, you know, Boldly Caprisov and they have Brock favorite. That's a good core. And I think Spurgeon still pretty good. And you have Z Boyam, who, yes, there's some defensive warts, but you see the upside there. I just. I struggle with the fact that they had all this cap space finally opened up and what they did with it. I feel like this is a team that, you know, you need to get a little bit younger, you need to get a little bit faster. And they're like, oh, we're just going to extend some veterans and just hand out some money this way. And it's like, it doesn't. You didn't do enough. You didn't thread the needle there when you had the opportunity to do so. So I think that's what really hurts them. I think the key to all of this with teams is when you recognize that you're not that good. Right? Like, do you just hope for the best and push for the playoffs and get out in round one again? Or you go, okay, maybe this isn't our year. We step back this year and we're going to be great. We can start reloading right now. Like, if you can recognize that, immediately stop the bleeding, fix your problems, get set for next year. You don't have these problems continuing for year after year after year, which then becomes, oh, we should retool and just kidding. Now we have to tear it down completely. So not to be, like, overdramatic, but I wonder if they don't figure it out soon, do you make a decision and just start prepping for next year?
- [51:16]
Mark Lazarus
But it's so increasingly difficult to do that, to change on the fly, to add, everyone's got cat Space. There's no. We talked about it earlier in the show. There are no free agents anymore and fewer teams. The parody is so insane right now. And everyone except for the Buffalo Sabres and the Calgary Flames are in the playoff picture right now. So nobody's going to be trading any. You used to be able to make trades in November. Every year there would be a bigger trade or two in November where a team's like, all right, we're screwed this year. Let's get rid of some guys, get ahead of this, get some young players back. And we don't have that anymore because everyone's in it until, like, mid March at this point. So the trade deadline is going to be quiet. Summer free agency is going to be a complete dud. It's like, I'm with you. Like, the Wild need to. They can't just stay on this course. But I'm not sure they're going to.
- [51:57]
Max Boltman
Have any other options now that they've signed Caprize off. It does feel like a little more plausible just because you're not, like, going to lose him if that happens. But it's interesting because I feel like the last few years have been when they had that cap jam right from the Paris and Suter buyouts. Those were the years that I feel like you could justify being like, well, we're playing shorthanded, and that's the situation here. This was supposed to be kind of the end of that. And so I think it's disappointing to see where they've come out of it. And you certainly, you don't want to mess around too much with Caprizov's prime years. You don't want to mess around too much with missing Joel Erickson. EK on one of the best value contracts in the NHL for my money on his best window. So they're in a tough spot for sure. The last team I want to hit, Shane, is staying in the Central Division. The St. Louis Blues. And Jeremy Rutherford, I thought, hit it on the head with his column the other day. The Blues have proved that they are just a bad team, is the headline. Do you have any reason to doubt that?
- [52:47]
Mark Lazarus
The meanest thing that J.R. has ever said in his life about anyone or anything.
- [52:51]
Shayna Goldman
I mean, honestly. Right? Like, no, I don't. It's funny, we. A couple weeks ago, we worked on a story together and it was like, how the numbers. You know, it's not all bad. Here's where it actually is bad. And then they won a game where, like, you know what? They need some good news. Like, that's how nice he is. He was like, no, no, we're going to talk about their win. We'll circle back to this, right? Like they're so bad. Like they're a team. That and Jim Montgomery was saying this, right? Like the process is there. The numbers below the surface are better than the results. And he was completely right on that because they were generating more quality offense than the score she showed on a nightly basis. And I at the time, it was when we wrote this, I think Robert Thomas came back for one game or like it was back for his first game. And you go, okay, well, maybe the shot quality from what we can see with public metrics, doesn't capture the fact that the pre shot movement is worse. You are down one of the worst passers in the league in Robert Thomas. Like that could be hurting you. The defense, it's not as bad, but the goaltendings are. And now it's like, okay, you know what? Maybe this roster is more flawed than, than we realize, right? Like, I think their offseason was questionable. I didn't like the Bulldog trade to bring in Logan Mallew. I didn't understand it enough. I didn't like it. But it's not like that's a backbreaking deal in itself. I just felt like they didn't do enough to build off of what they did post four nations like say, Montreal did, right? Like they took their teams and kind of one went very quiet, one went a little bit louder. And I think the Blues could have been a lot louder this summer because they don't have a ton of like, great goal scores on the stressor. They have good forwards outside of Robert Thomas, I should say they have a lot of good forwards, but you don't look at it and go, well, they have a ton of game breakers. Okay, so you're going with the depth approach. You better bring in more scores to make that click, right? And I just don't feel like they did it. And now the fact that both goaltenders are just got awful.
- [54:33]
Mark Lazarus
It's.
- [54:34]
Shayna Goldman
It's horrible out there in St. Louis and it's similar.
- [54:37]
Mark Lazarus
You know, the Wilder I think are 511 in their last seven. Marco Rossi's out, but they've stabilized. Jesper Wallstead is outplaying Philip Gustafson. You know, there's good news to be had there. The Blues have kind of stabilized a little bit. They had another like a 33101 stretch. You know, they got a point versus Philly. They lost to Vegas. It happens. But like, I feel like Both those teams really needed to crash out hard. They needed to really rock bottom out. And I don't think that's going to happen. They're going to get mildly competitive again. They're going to think they can sneak in and get that first round revenue again and they're just going to be on this treadmill of doom forever. Because that's the way the NHL is designed.
- [55:10]
Max Boltman
I think that's the key to this whole segment.
- [55:12]
Mark Lazarus
Right.
- [55:12]
Max Boltman
We're not just sitting here saying, like, who are the four worst teams in the NHL? I think that's a, that's a boring conversation. Like, these are the teams that like what, what you've seen so far, both about this year and the big picture worries you. And I think, I think St. Louis fits in that. I think Minnesota fits into that.
- [55:25]
Shayna Goldman
Yep. And I think with like Minnesota at least I'm like, okay, I can see how things could turn around, right, because of the really high end talent. Because we haven't seen, you know, Z William at his best. And now you have Matt Sucrello back, which I think he's a great support player on that top line. He's super effective. But more importantly, he resets the depth chart. Right? Like, you don't have to load up that top line with bolding Caprisov every time you're in panic mode where you don't have to have players playing out of their positions. Like, it just resets it in a way that you need that you can now look at that team if your management goes, okay, now what's missing? Right? Because the entire time you had that in your back pocket, okay, we were missing that, right? So the Blues, they get Robert Thomas back and it's like, okay, you're still bad. Maybe you're worse now. I don't know. Who's to say? Because I think the expectations are different now with Robert Thomas in the fold. I'm more worried about St. Louis than I am Minnesota somehow.
- [56:13]
Max Boltman
Yeah. All right, well, let's wrap their great stuff, Shayna. Thank you all for listening to this episode of the Athletic Hockey Show. You can subscribe on YouTube@YouTube.com TheAthletic Hockey show to watch full episodes. How many Sean's are too many? We're going to find out the answer to that question on Wednesday when Sean Gentile, Sean McIndu and Frankie Corrado have the next episode. We'll talk to you then.
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