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The Athletic Hockey Show
Maple Leafs get No. 1 pick in NHL Draft Lottery surprise | Instant Reaction
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- [00:00]
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Max Boltman
This is the athletic hockey show prospect.
- [02:00]
Scott Wheeler
Foreign
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Max Boltman
hey everybody. Max Boltman here alongside the Athletics Corey Promen, Scott Wheeler and Flow Hockey's Chris Peters for another episode of the Athletic Hockey Show Prospect series. Our live reaction to the 2026 NHL Draft Lottery and it is a doozy. The Toronto Maple Leafs are picking first overall Corey. They pretty much had to have it. If they weren't going to win the lottery, they were likely going to forfeit this pick to Boston. So as a condition in the Brandon Carlo trade and they move all the way up to number one.
- [02:34]
Corey Pronman
Yeah, obviously a, a very interesting draft lottery for them. They could have lost the pick altogether. They could, they could have picked five. But you know, but they end up picking at the now at the one spot in the incoming management group. Get to make a very interesting decision here on what direction they want to go in to start the next iteration of the Toronto Maple Leafs. And there's so many angles we can discuss now with this pick. You know, obviously this is a team that's thought they were in win now mode, but they weren't this past year. Does that lend you to take players who you think might be more NHL ready than not? This is also an organization that has, you know, seen issues with depth over the years and now like at the premium positions at center. You know, John Tavares is getting older. They've been dying for premium defense talent for a long time. You know, there's a lot of really good defensemen in this, this year's draft and of course, and I'm sure we'll be beating this drum a little bit, they've built their team in a very specific way over the last decade. You know, they had, you know, when they were making their, their, their great regular season runs and then, and obviously their unsuccessful playoff runs, they had these three, four really high end skill guys in their lineup. You know, really dangerous power play, but lack depth and lack the ability to play at even strength consistently in the playoffs. Do they turn to a 511 winger and someone like a Gavin McKenna who I think you can make reasonable analogies to Mitch Marner at the same age. You could probably argue Marner a little bit better, you know, two way player. McKenna is probably even a higher level of skill than Marner, but you know, it's, it would basically be trying to build in a very similar fashion. You're envisioning a power play with Matthews and Nylander and McKenna and that being the crux of how you generate your offense. So it'll be really interesting to see what, what they do and there's a lot of pressure on this team and as well they don't have a first round pick for two more years after this. So this, this pick is safe to say it's extremely important they get this one right.
- [04:41]
Max Boltman
Very important.
- [04:42]
Scott Wheeler
And how about the last 24 hours in Toronto? You've got the awkward, uncomfortable, testy moments yesterday in the press conference. You're staring, you're entering into the organization, staring down potentially losing a sixth or seventh overall pick to a division rival. And now a day later, Matt Sundin, a former first overall pick, though not to the Leafs, is sitting on TV accepting basically the best news imaginable on day two of his job.
- [05:14]
Chris Peters
I, I find it amazing that the Maple Leafs won the draft lottery this year for the reason Scott just mentioned and because of what Corey just talked about, we're talking about two marginal, you know, like, like wings that have holes in their game. It, it's not like, listen, Gavin McKenna is a superstar talent. There's a lot of things he does offensively well, but that there are holes in the game. And, and the thing is, is that, you know, this is not a year the Maple Leafs are getting a no doubter when they had Auston Matthews, you know, this is not a year where you're getting that. And it's kind of funny that we're talking about, you know, two kind of wings that, you know. And I'd say Stenberg is the more competitive between the two. Gets a little bit more to the interior than, than McKenna does. But I just find it fascinating that, you know, the Maple Leafs win the draft lottery this year and it's. And at the top of the lineup is two guys that either could be the heir apparent to Mitch Marner, which, and we saw how badly they missed him last year. But, but now like, honestly, you know, is this the best outcome for Toronto to win it this, this year? Essentially?
- [06:23]
Max Boltman
Well, that I think is really interesting, Chris, because when we talk about the, the Marner factor to all of this, right. There's one part of me that says, well, I think that their build had them being a consistent 100 point team. And if you take the playmaking winger and you bump him down from what Mitch Marner was making to an entry level contract, it actually does leave you a lot of room to address some of the deficiencies the Toronto Maple Leafs previously had. The issue is Corey, is that I don't think Gavin McKenna can step in on day one and be Mitch Marner. I don't, I mean he, he, he should hope to be Mitch Marner by year three. By year four, we've seen players like Jack Hughes, like select like Alexi Lafreniere and those are, you know, two, two different end products but harsh transitions to the NHL game. Gavin McKenna played college hockey this year. I think to help him. He got better as the year went along. But is he ready to step in on day one and be a difference maker for the Toronto Maple Leafs?
- [07:15]
Corey Pronman
It's a great question. I think McKenna's biggest advocates will point to Jack Hughes as probably a, you know, a meeting, case development path where it could take a little bit of time. Mind you, he's, I think like 10 months older than Hughes was going into his draft. So he's a little bit further along. I think you Know, I think the people who like McKenna are thinking maybe he could be somewhere between like 45 to 55 points next year in the NHL, which would be a really good player. Yeah, but obviously it's not, it's not martyr and you're maybe you're hoping by year two, year three, he can get to that level of offense, but it's a fair question. The other part of that too is even though if he could step in, and I think Stenberg has kind of indicated he wants to come to North America, he wants to compete for an NHL job, is these other players like Caleb Malhotra and Chase Reed and Albert Smith and Carson Carls and Keaton Verhoff are all very likely going to play college hockey next year. So these non wingers are at least a year away, if not two years away from meaningfully helping the Toronto Maple Leafs if they were to go in a different direction. And I mean, Scott lives in that city. He can give me an idea if I'm mistaken, but this doesn't seem like the most patient fan base, the most patient organization to say we got number one pick. Just, you know, he's going to go do the Owen power route though. He's going to take another year in college and maybe by year two, year three, he's going to start playing real minutes for us.
- [08:43]
Scott Wheeler
No, that's not. It doesn't seem like the most patient ownership now either. There's been a change in ownership in Toronto in recent years and Rodgers has acquired more and more of the stake. They will soon have 100% control over MLSC. And from ownership on down, it seems like priority number one is making sure that they don't lose Auston Matthews and William Nylander in the coming years. And that means pushing and pushing and pushing. And that's, I think, what John's marching orders have been here as well. And that's Sundin. The message from everybody on down is we've got to get this back on track. I believe Austin turns 29 in September. Nylander's already 30. Those are your two guys, so you now have another piece of the puzzle to pair with them. It's ironic after all these years of talking about the core four, that we now might have some different version of the core four here in Toronto. But the reality is that they. It's go time. And so I think there is something to not wanting to wait two, three, four players. It probably takes a defenseman just out of the equation altogether with what we've seen from young defensemen trying to break into the league in recent years. It's a lot easier to do it as a forward and it probably takes players like Caleb Malhotra and guys who are on different paths than maybe a stenberg or a McKenna or who want to come over and play in the NHL next year. We know that Stenberg hasn't signed his contract, hasn't re upped his contract, I should say, with Rolanda and those, those two names in particular I think are what you zero in on from an outside perspective, not knowing anything about with the way that the Leafs brass are, are thinking right now. And then on top of that they have said that Leech is going to run the draft board. So this is very much. We'll see how true that is. But this is very much in the hands of an amateur scouting staff that are also awaiting contracts in many cases. And there's a lot at play with the Leafs amateur department and decisions that they need to make on all sorts of staff. And now they go into the draft with a critical decision for the next decade plus of this organization.
- [10:48]
Corey Pronman
My question, and this goes to like what Max just said too, is if McKenna comes in, he's like a 70, 80 point guy right away that changes things a little bit. But if he comes in and he's like a, let's say a 45 to 50 point, you know, winger, does that really move the needle for Toronto and does that really change the core issues that we're talking about here in terms of, you know, near term contention?
- [11:12]
Scott Wheeler
Am I alone in thinking that even 40 or 50 points might feel optimistic?
- [11:18]
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No.
- [11:19]
Scott Wheeler
Well, he's gonna have a really tough time in the league next year. Like similar to what Jack Hughes went through. What did Jack have like 26 points or something?
- [11:28]
Chris Peters
It wasn't good, Jack.
- [11:30]
Corey Pronman
Jack Hughes didn't get to ride shotgun with Austin Matthews still on the top.
- [11:33]
Scott Wheeler
No, no, no.
- [11:35]
Chris Peters
Is he. Yeah. Is that, is that going to be where you put him? I mean, you know, like I, I think. And so with all that in mind too, you know, we're talking about this and if it wasn't the Leafs, I feel like we wouldn't really necessarily be having this discussion. But I, you know, I threw it out on Twitter. Probably trolling a little bit, but still thinking about it a little bit more is how say trade the. No, I'm not saying trade the pick. No, no, that, that wouldn't, that wouldn't go over well. But how far away are the D from McKenna and Stenberg in your guys eyes? How far away are those players Because Chaika said recently, you know, yesterday in one of his many interviews that, you know, didn't, you know, where he wasn't personally attacked was we need to, we need to look at the blue line like. And that's anybody that with eyes can look at the Toronto say we need, we need help on D. Is there any world in which that is an alternative option for. And this is just a devil's advocate thing. I'm not saying the LEAF should do this, but is there a world where that makes sense to either of you guys?
- [12:42]
Corey Pronman
I think it does. Like, I think those D men are like pretty. There's some couple of those even that are pretty much a tie with McKenna for me. Or like a margin or like, like a half step below him.
- [12:51]
Chris Peters
Yeah.
- [12:52]
Corey Pronman
Depending on your evaluation of them. And maybe they, maybe Toronto, whether Toronto agrees, disagree with that obviously is the more critical factor. But you know, Max said earlier they could always just take McKinnon and use that and go out and get a D. And you know, externally I'm not sure who that would be. It doesn't seem like there's some premier defenseman in free agency they can just go after.
- [13:12]
Chris Peters
No.
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Corey Pronman
And one would argue that and, and Jacob has actually said this when he was the Arizona gm that he looks at the draft for what kind of pieces he can get. You know, he looks at what's harder to get on the open market when he was talking about what he would like to draft. So that could be a variable in try to figure out who the first pick is.
- [13:37]
Chris Peters
That's. That's the thing. Go ahead, Scott.
- [13:39]
Scott Wheeler
No, I was. My worry with that if, if I'm sitting in that chair would be that you don't know. It's the same conversation we always have about drafting for need. You don't. Let's say Chase Reed and these guys are two, three years away. You don't know what your needs are going to be two, three years from now. They could be completely different than you're going to have two or three free agencies between now and then. You're going to have two or three trade deadlines between now and then. It could take even after those guys break in, in two, two and a half years. It could take them time to establish themselves. Like with some of these D, you're. You're often talking four or five years down the line before they're making a real impact in the league. Even Lane Hudson, it's. It. It took him three years before he was impacting the league. Well, not three years, but pretty Close Simon Edmondson, you go down the list. It takes time with those guys. And I don't know whether they have that and, and I don't know whether they can risk playing that long game with, with hypothetical needs in the here and now. Like just take, take the player that can help you sooner. And if, if you think that player is Gavin or Ivar whoever, or if it's a defenseman, make that calculus on the defenseman. But it feels to me like that player probably wouldn't be one of the
- [14:54]
Corey Pronman
D. I think Chris's point is more like baseball. Tie goes to the runner is that if, if it's, if it's tie or close to a tie between the winger and the D or the winger in the center, but let's say it's one of the D that I think there'd be a really strong case to take the defenseman. And I would agree with that. And that's how I kind of view this, the situation now. I know Scott just released a board now. You don't view it that way. You view there's a distinction between McKenna, Stenberg and the rest of the class. So. And I think there's some risk. That's the critical question. Yeah, I mean, there's risk in all the players. I mean, there's no Shaffer this year. Everybody, every player has holes this year that I've seen anyways. But I think that's a critical question is like, what's the gap between those players? That. That's the most interesting question. Not. You know, Obviously I think McKenna and Stenberg are more likely to produce in the near term.
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- [17:31]
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- [18:25]
Max Boltman
All right, let's transition this away from the Leafs. We'll have a lot more time over the next month and a half to talk about the number one pick. The number two pick is arguably just as interesting here because at the top of the show I said if they didn't win the lottery, they were probably given this pick to Boston. That is because the San Jose Sharks won the second spot in the lottery, jumping the up in the draft. And so they're going to pick second. That would have pushed the Leafs down to six otherwise. At least six otherwise, depending on who had won instead of them. But the San Jose Sharks are a team that has a lot going for them already. Of course they have Macklin Celebrini, they have Will Smith, they have Sam Dickinson on the back end, but they do kind of lack that running mate for him, that more offensive defenseman. And at the two spot, that's a pretty good place to find one, Corey.
- [19:10]
Corey Pronman
Yeah, and when you think of their power play now long term with Celebrini, with what Will Smith, you figure Michael Misa is going to get there at some point. You know, obviously I don't know if Turner Shev is a top power play guy or not, but obviously he had a very impressive year this year in San Jose. Does feel like they're in a situation here where they have needed a premium young defenseman, a guy was with high end skill for, for quite a few years now into this rebuild. And it does feel like the stars have kind of aligned here at the two spot. And I don't know who that player is going to be. I don't know whether it's Keen Verhoff or Chase Reid or Albert Smith or Carson Carls or Jackson Rudolph, you know, there's, I think there's a variety of ways they could go, but it does feel like this is their time here to get that defenseman and to really assemble one of the most promising young cores I can remember over the last 10, 15 years. Doesn't always work out. You know, we raved about Buffalo's core for so long until it finally kind of turned into something. But it's also, if they leave here with a Chase read, you could kind of look at them in the same way you looked at a really young Colorado Avalanche organization 10 years ago and be like, hey, this is a lot of talent and if it goes well, like there's a lot of really good things that can happen in San Jose.
- [20:32]
Max Boltman
Is it read with a bullet? Like is is read the, the top D with a bullet here? I mean there's, there's a cluster of really good players. Carson, Carl's, Dax and Rudolph, Albert, Smiths, Keaton, Verhoff, of course, like there's a big group of D, but we're talking, it seems like mostly about Reed.
- [20:45]
Corey Pronman
No, I don't think it's him with a bullet, but I think he, he and Rudolph are the two best candidates to run a power play. I don't think we, anyone here envisions Sam Dickinson running our first power play unit in the NHL. I think even there's some questions if he's running a second power play unit in the NHL right now. So I think if you're looking for that guy who could be a 50, 60 point to heavy minutes defenseman. I feel like all signs are pointing towards Reed right now, but it's not a sure thing.
- [21:10]
Chris Peters
Yeah, I, I would go with Reed as Well, I, you know, for me that, that seems to make the most sense. I think he checks the, the most boxes for you. You know, the, the, the Sharks are going to be a team that's going to beat a lot of teams in transition with, with the way that they're, they're set up and you need to really good mobile defenseman that can, that can move pucks. And I think that that's what Reed does. I think he's also a guy that's going to be involved in the rush and you know, I just think that he is, is a really nice fit for them. I think this is a good situation for San Jose to find themselves in where they're, the pressure is off a little bit for that first overall pick. I think a lot of people have said in the past, you know, I'd rather pick two or three just to, you know, to, to have that, have, you know, have some of those decisions made for me because there are tough decisions to be made. But I do think that Chase Reed checks the most boxes for me among those guys. I think a lot of these defensemen in our, our grouping with Reed, I, I do feel like there's been a, at least, at least for me, a little bit of separation between him and the others. You know, I think each of them have holes and, and Reed does as well. But to me, I just think, I look at the way that the Sharks are being built and I see a hand to glove fit with that particular player.
- [22:24]
Corey Pronman
Is there much difference between him and Lev Shunov? Same point.
- [22:29]
Chris Peters
That's a great question.
- [22:30]
Scott Wheeler
I think he thinks it better.
- [22:33]
Corey Pronman
Yeah, I, I, I think there's obviously distinctions. It's not, it's not an overlap, but there's enough, there's some rhymes there, I would say between the, the big R toolsy offensive tilted defenseman.
- [22:44]
Chris Peters
Yeah. And I, I think, I think I, I, I'd lean that Chase's, you know, overall skill level is, is, is a cut like a slight cut above, but not, you know, like, but let you know, I think there's a lot there and I, I, his, his defensive urgency is a little better too. So I think that's fair. That helps. But, yeah, but I mean, I, I do think that this is like the Sharks are in a really good spot here. Like, say you go Stenberg, you go, or you go with one of these D I, you know, I think, you know, heck, you know, you even go Malhotra. Like, I feel like there are so many good options at two and I actually like all of them a little bit better just for where the Sharks are right now than I did McKenna in that spot.
- [23:26]
Corey Pronman
I think the ultimate question is does McKenna or Stenberg makes the most sense for San Jose at 2 because they're gonna have opportunity to take one of them.
- [23:35]
Max Boltman
I don't. To me, Will Smith is close enough to being McKenna that I don't think you need to double up with that. Stenberg could bring a little more kind of driving skilled winger. But I think the need at D is enough that if it's even close, I think you got to take the D for San Jose. That's how I would look at it.
- [23:58]
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- [24:18]
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- [24:59]
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- [25:25]
Max Boltman
all right, let's go through the other top teams here because pretty much everybody slid as a result of the very top team slid because Toronto and San Jose jump up. So Vancouver is going to pick at 3, Chicago at 4, the New York Rangers 5, Calgary 6, Seattle 7, Winnipeg 8. The Florida Panthers pick at 9. Do they make that pick? We'll see Nashville at 10. St. Louis has 11 and 15. New Jersey 12. The Islanders 13, Columbus 14, Washington 16. Those big markets in that 3 to 5 cluster, Scott, Vancouver, Chicago, New York. Who should be the most disappointed at how this shook out for them?
- [25:59]
Scott Wheeler
If you're the Vancouver Canucks, I think you have to be. Excuse me, you have to be at least a little disappointed. Just forget how close the players are at the top. Just being able to control the board is. Is so valuable. And when you're in it and from a sales pitch, being able to sell a first overall pick if you're that ownership, if you're that organization, sell that hope, I think is losing out on that piece of the puzzle. Whether you like the player as much at three as you did at one. That hurts. Like the Blackhawks are fine. The Blackhawks are going to get another important piece to add to their ridiculous number of important pieces that they have to figure out here over the, over the next few years. I don't have much sympathy for, for sort of the situation that they're in, but I don't know, I do feel a little bit for the Canucks organization. I'm sorry, sure, that that fan base was at the edge of their seat watching the balls go and you saw them, their odds shot up a couple of times during each of the draws where it felt like it was going to go their way and then it doesn't go their way. And now they're going to get a very good player at three, whether it's Caleb Malhotra and that sort of center to build around or another one of those D that we just talked about off the top or another Swede in Ivar Stenberg. There are great options there. I think we all like all of those players and maybe even are partial to them in Corey's case, to Gavin McKenna. But they, they could have sold Gavin McKenna. Gavin could have been something for them to get sort of really galvanized around and get excited about criticisms have side of the player, just that piece of it. It's got to be a bit of a sour feeling for that organization, top down. And now they've got to figure out all sorts of stuff there, including hiring their next general manager.
- [27:55]
Chris Peters
Yeah, and you know, I, I feel for Vancouver as well, but I also think that there's potentially a blessing in disguise here of, of the teams that we're going to pick first. I really feared Vancouver For Gavin McKenna's sake, just because I felt like he was going to be needed too much there, whereas now he's going to Potentially go into a situation where he's a little more insulated, which I think is better for a player like him and will help ease him and maybe set him up better for success. What I think for Vancouver here is now you're. You're in a position where I think you've got a number of good options available to you. They're not the best option necessarily, but they're still going to be pretty good. And I, you know, this is a position where I wonder if a Caleb Malhotra makes sense. I think as. As a guy now is. Is he as exciting enough? Does it. Is he going to get you out of your seat the same way that maybe a Stenberg could? I don't know, but I just watched him throughout the playoffs and I saw a player that, you know, potentially could be a cornerstone piece for a team that is maybe not the star, but a guy that is going to be a pretty significant piece for a good team. I think he's a very complete player. I think he plays the game at a pretty high level. That's a player that I would look at and say, hey, this guy could be part of our new identity. This guy could be part of our future. He's one of those players I feel strongly, might would be able to handle that. Obviously, there's the familial, you know, a relationship with the organization. I think that's a player, you know, he told us a long time ago, like, that was his team. That was, that was the team that he. That he loved as a kid. I think that he would relish that opportunity. So I don't know if that's going to end up being the pick. I don't know if that makes the most sense for them. But I do think that Kayla Malhotra, we start having that conversation right there at three.
- [29:39]
Max Boltman
I will say, like, they already have Braden Coots, and I think Mahalter is a better player than Coots. But if, if you don't think Mel Hultra can be a 1C and maybe you do. I mean, he. He's had a phenomenal playoffs or had a phenomenal playoffs there. Like, they're early enough in their rebuild. They're going to be picking high. I feel confident in saying a lot of times they're going to have other chances to get the center. They. They might be one of the rare teams that I would endorse saying, just take whoever your best player is, regardless of what you see as positional value, because you're going to have a lot of cracks at Positional value, I think. Is that fair? I mean.
- [30:11]
Corey Pronman
Yeah, I think so. I also think like who they're getting at three is not substantially much different than who they'd be getting at 1 or 2. Like the only teams that saw massive deltas today in terms of was was San Jose and frankly Toronto not falling out of the top five like those, those are the, the two, you know, you know, off obvious because they were the two lottery winners. But in terms of the most significant things that happened to organizations say that was it. Like, yeah, it'll suck if they don't get McKenna. But, but I feel, I mean we're literally having this Stenberg vs McKenna debate and there seems like a pretty decent chance Denver could be there at three.
- [30:44]
Max Boltman
Yes.
- [30:45]
Corey Pronman
I don't know. So like, I don't know. I think they're fine. I mean, or at least no less fine than they were 24 hours ago, for sure.
- [30:55]
Max Boltman
I just, I think most, most years, if we were debating a 632 way center and a 511 scoring winger, I think most of us are pounding the table for the 632 way center. I think Vancouver's like kind of uniquely suited to be able to, to say, you know what you need talent, period. Just, just take it where it's there.
- [31:12]
Corey Pronman
Right. Obviously there's other variables to, other than that to consider, but I get, but I get what you're saying and I think that, you know, I think that's kind of interesting debates that we're going to have in the coming weeks. Here is where are the lines in the draft when we get to our consensus board, what we're going to do in a few weeks. I think trying to tier this draft is going to be a very fascinating exercise.
- [31:34]
Max Boltman
Yeah, absolutely. We will have a lot more to come, including a full kind of lottery. Once we've had a minute to sit with our thoughts, we'll do that. We'll do it again later this week for the Friday show. So we'll have more there. But for now that's going to do it for us. Thanks for listening to this episode of the Athletic Hockey Show Prospect series. We'll talk to you soon.
- [31:55]
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