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- [00:00]
A
Foreign. This is the athletic hockey show. Hey, everybody. Welcome to another episode of the Athletic Hockey Show. I'm Jesse Granger and today I'm joined by Dom Luchin in Toronto. Toronto, it's July 2nd. We're breaking down all the action from yesterday. It was another interesting open to free agency. I feel like we've had this conversation the last few years where a lot of the good guys have been locked up for long term deals. There's not a lot on the open market, but there's a lot of money to be spent. We are going to spend today breaking down a few of the late signings that we didn't get to in yesterday's podcast. And we're going to talk about the best and the worst contracts with the guy who knows the numbers better than anyone I know. Dom, how are you doing in Toronto?
- [01:04]
B
I am doing good. Learned before the show that it was somehow hotter in Toronto yesterday than it was in Vegas, which is annoying. I don't, I don't like the heat. I. It's too hot right now.
- [01:20]
A
Backwards land. So not only did you get our heat, but usually I'm, I'm the one that's used to being like the center of attention on the day, day one of free agency. Usually Vegas is making all the moves, making all the signings. Seemed like Toronto was busier than anyone yester you. It's we complete role reversal between our cities.
- [01:39]
B
Mm. I mean Vegas still got the, one of the biggest fish out there by resigning Rasmus Anderson, who we will certainly get to. No spoilers on which side he lands on best and worst contracts. But the Leafs made a lot of signings, which I'm not sure I love July 1st, usually the day where you're in bidding wars, you're overspending and they're doing it to fill out the bottom six where usually you can find those guys pretty easily. And they're fairly dime a dozen and they're not these, they're not where I think they need to invest money into. So a little alarming that they weren't a bit more patient on that front. For sure. And obviously the marquee signing is, is one of your guys for sure. In net, Sergey Bobrovsky, who I'm a bit iffy on. For sure.
- [02:37]
A
Yeah. We'll get to plenty of Toronto signings in the best and worst signings. Let's start it off with. It's not, it's basically nothing. There wasn't a sign, there wasn't a trade. We thought we were going to get some Huge news on Zach we Rensky over the past couple days. Not only did we not get the trade Columbus makes ends up coming out with a statement late yesterday that, you know what, let's just forget that it all happened and Zachary is going to come back to Columbus, he's going to play, and he wants to try to win a Stanley cup with the Blue Jackets. And it cracked me up their Twitter admin posted the Men in Black like light that makes you forget your memory. He's like, let's just pretend like this didn't happen. Columbus fans, what are your thoughts on them trying to walk this back? I've seen quite a bit of vitriol online from Columbus fans. What kind of reception is Zach Laurenski going to get when they show up to play a game in this fall? Like it can they just pretend like none of this happened?
- [03:34]
B
I hope they can because he's probably one of the greatest players in franchise history just coming off a Norris win and he may have steered in the wrong direction, but he came back when it mattered and he walked it back. And I think there's something to be admired about owning up in the way they did. And I am just happy for Blue Jackets fans that this is no longer happening, at least not for now. Because with Rensky on the team, with the way things are heading, I truly believe next year is the year things can actually turn around. And that is a city that genuinely deserves a long playoff berth, consistent playoff action. Because if you look at the history of that team, they have had a few first round exits, a lot of playoff misses, a lot of lottery picks, and a lot of players who said no thank you to this city. So it is, it was worrying that Warrensky was going to be add to that list. But if he's back, I think the Blue Jackets can ride that to a potential playoff berth next year. I think they'll be firmly in the mix and I would have hoped they would have added something yesterday because they do have Rensky coming back. But as is, I, I like the team and I think Rensky made the right choice to, to stick it out. Aside from these other American gold medalists.
- [05:08]
A
Yeah, it does seem like everyone on that team and I, I totally agree with you, especially when you mentioned like the history of play, players not wanting to be in Columbus. It's for an organization that's relatively well run. It's not like there's like a bunch of like stuff going on behind the scenes and they're just dysfunctional. Like it's, it's mostly Just the geography or the fact that the team hasn't won. And that's what it's going to take. Right. Like Warrensky says, I'm coming back. I want to win a Stanley Cup. If the team's not any good, we're probably going to end up here next summer as well. I agree with you that they've got a chance to be good. I always go to the goalies. I love Jet Grieves and net. I thought he took. I expected him. I expected him to take the net last year and take big steps. He did. I think it's a big test year too. Like when these young goalies come in the second year. Being the starter is not always easy. We saw it with Dustin Wolf this past year in Calgary after a phenomenal rookie season. So it's going to be a big test for him. But if he can, if he can keep that going, I think Columbus is good. Moving to the other late news yesterday, Baird Hayden. We've got an offer sheet and that's always fun because we hardly ever get them. They are they. And especially so New Jersey offers Utah's Baird Hayden an offer sheet. It's a one year deal for 4.775 million. It was a very specific number and I saw people on social media adding up, doing some math and they figured out that so it's first the compensation if he were to go to New Jersey would be a second round pick. It was $666 short of what upgrading it to higher than a second round pick. So that was pretty clever by the Devils to go with just below six six, six. What do you think about the deal and what do you think about just it seems like they're almost kind of taking a shot at Utah with this deal. Like they're being cheeky with the money amount and it kind of came out of nowhere.
- [06:59]
B
Yeah. And then we hear that they had a deal that was in the late stages at the draft that fell through and I wonder what that deal was for. When I first saw the number I felt like that was an absolute no brainer to match. You see the center market as it is right now. You see what Colton Sissons is getting, you see what Scotland is getting. Barrett Hayden is probably one of the better third line centers in the league. I think his defensive impact is fantastic. I imagine Sunny is as an analytically inclined GM is paying attention to that stuff and sees that value and one of the comps that I have for Hayden is Michael Backland back before he broke out to being one of the league's best checking line centers. I think Hayden is under the radar in that way in the sense that he limits a lot of chances for Utah. So you see 4.7, you see what other centers are getting, you see that the comp back is only a second round pick when a guy like Nick Le is going for a first easy match in my mind. But the way this is handled, a bit of the poison pill is that Utah can't trade him for the next year and for the next year a year away, he's walking straight to ufa. So you can risk signing him and losing him for nothing because there's a good chance he's just going to end up signing in with the doubles next year anyway or you roll the dice, I don't know. So in that sense it's a much tougher decision than it looked at first glance. And I can see Utah just taking the second and saying we got Trocheck, we got Schmaltz, we got Cooley, we're, we're fine here. But I think losing Hayton for just a second is, is tough. And for other teams who maybe spent 4.2 million on a fourth line center, it is not a great look to see a genuinely good 3C who your GM maybe drafted 5th overall back in the day to be going for just 500k more. So that's, that's a bit tougher for some fans. We won't name them but I think it's a, it's a, it's a calculated bet from, from the Devils and I, I, I'm, I'm a big fan of, of that and their center depth next year could be wild. If they get Hayden, they'll have Hughes, he sure Hayden and then Cody glass as a 4C. Two disappointing fifth overall picks running the the third and fourth line. I, I don't hate it.
- [09:35]
A
Right. Right. Yeah, I mean like disappointing overall but if they're your fourth line center, it's not too bad. It's funny because we spent yesterday's show a big part of it talking about how good Utah looks up front and specifically down the middle. You add Trocheck Stanlin. Also another like bottom six Gu Lee joins that team. He's obviously on the wing but it just feels like like I watched that Utah team play Vegas in the first round and they were fast, they were skilled but they got bullied around a bit. You add tro check and Anders Lee, some big strong veteran guys. Like I love what they've got up front. Losing Hayton would Be a bit a big deal to me. Like I know he's the 3C but that's the strength of this team is up the middle and yeah and to me I see the number and I feel like that's an auto match. I agree with you. Do they not think they can get him like you you were mentioning? Okay, if you, if you do that, you obviously can't trade him for the whole year he hits UFA status. Do you think he just doesn't want to be in Utah and won't resign with them or.
- [10:32]
B
It is tough to say because he has gotten every opportunity to be a top six center there and maybe with Trocheck coming in he sees the writing on the wall. I'm not sure. It is interesting timing that this offshoot came out after the Trotrek trade happened. So it would be a bit of a hole for sure if they do lose Hayton and they'd probably. It'd be. It might be easier if they do keep Schmaltz at center to find a winger that can fill out the top nine. But I even if they lose Hayne, I do still like how this team is looking going to next season. They have Simyshev and Lamro who can fill in for what Dersey was doing on the third pair. I think the defense still looks good. Forwards look deep. Vishmelka I think is a pretty good starter and having maybe a better backup to help him out with the load could be good. I don't know anything about Sebastian Casa. Maybe you can fill us in. But I think Utah is still a team on the rise whether they keep Peyton or not.
- [11:40]
A
Yeah, I totally agree. I like Kosa. He's obviously brand new. Like he like very pretty much no NHL experience. He's a big goalie, very athletic. Obviously wasn't progressing the way Detroit had wanted and they've got other younger goalies that were going to kind of pass him up in the system. So I understand why they moved him. If you're Utah, they haven't had a legitimate backup. Like their backups have been so bad that's playing more games than Vasilevsky and Connor Hellebock. That like that just can't happen. I love Vamelka. I think he's a good goalie. He can't play 60 games a year. Like that's too many for a goalie of that caliber. So I think just taking some away from him, you'll get a better version of him. And then Kosa, maybe he ends up being the franchise goalie. Like, I love that bet on their part. It wasn't cheap. It's. They did pay a first round pick. But yeah, I like that. I like what Utah's doing and it seems like they're like they didn't land any huge fish, but I get the sense that that is a destination. Like I think if that team starts winning, players are going to want to play in Utah. Salt Lake City is nice. They've got a good owner who seems to want to invest in that team. They've got brand new facilities. That team could be dangerous. Like I don't know. I get the feeling that the way we're seeing players flock to certain teams. I think Utah could put itself in the mix if they can win.
- [12:53]
B
Yeah. And they have a gold medal winner in Clayton Keller. So if every team is running by the buddy system, you just got to count which teams have a gold medal winner and that is automatically a destination for anyone in that group. Chat.
- [13:08]
A
I love, I love the saltiness. Let's, let's go. Let's go to Tampa Bay where they signed John Carlson. This was a late signing yesterday after kind of the rest of the dust has settled. They signed him to a two year deal, 8.5 million per year. The defensemen were getting paid yesterday. We're going to get to a few of those contracts later on in the worst contracts of the day. But I didn't think the John Carlson one was too bad. It's obviously short, so, so it limits that. What do you think of his fit on Tampa Bay and what he brings to the Lightning?
- [13:40]
B
I am a big Carlson fan. I think he has like not declined at all for the last five years. Like he, I think still put up like last year. I think his 5 on 5 play driving impacts were some of the best of his career. So that is to me a sign that he still has it. I think Tamp pays attention to that. Defensively, you know what you're getting with Carlson, he's not that great in that realm. But offensively he still has a lot to offer and I think he can be a nice radish replacement as a right shot on that top power play because Headman, as good as his career has been, just wasn't cutting it in that role for the last couple of years. So I like that bet in that sense and I think he still has a lot of top four juice to him. I, I wonder if they play him with Moser or whether that's Moser and Headman and with Moser on the offside it'll be interesting to see how they deploy things. But I, I've liked the Lightning and what they've been doing for a while now. My model was very, very, very high on them last year and with Carlson, that is going to be the case again. Sneaky thing that I like about what they did is finally solving their backup goalie crisis with Dennis Hildeby, who had some good numbers last year. He's obviously unproven, but he has to be better than the previous option of Jonas Johansson, who might be one of the worst goalies in the league right now. And that forced vaslovski to play 60 games, which I don't think he should be doing either. And I think we saw that in the playoffs, where the last four years he hasn't been as sharp as you'd expect.
- [15:24]
A
Yeah, I completely agree. I think that's a big reason why this team hasn't been the dominant playoff force that they had been in years prior. And like, Vasilevsky still had some awesome games, but he hasn't been like in the playoffs, but he hasn't been consistently as good. And I think that overplaying him, they're like, I've, I've spoken to people. Their philosophy there is like, well, yeah, we're going to pay Vasilevsky all the money, but we're not going to invest in the backup because of that. And it's like, okay, I understand that. But also, you can get cheap goalies that are better than what you've had. And they, they, they, they do seem to have prioritized that backup position a little more. I like what we saw from Hildeby last year in Toronto. He's obviously not starter quality, but he is a, an upgrade at backup for sure. And back to Carlson, I agree with you. I don't think he's lost a step to me. It's, it's the, the way he skates is what gives me confidence that he's going to be like, be able to live up to this contract. Is a guy that big that age, you always worry like as soon as he loses a, of the speed and the skating, things can go off the rails pretty quickly. Watching him last year, he doesn't look any slower to me. Like he's still flying around out there for, for his age. And yeah, like, I, he's not a defensive anchor, but he's solid enough back there and is obviously great in the offensive end.
- [16:40]
B
So you'll take that just slightly below average. That's, that's fine, that's fine. They have McDonough, they have Moser, they have Chernax. Still great defensively, even if he is a bit below average because of his offense. So it is a very good blue line. Obviously would have been extremely special if they were able to add Orensky instead, but Carlson is a fantastic consolation prize.
- [17:10]
A
All right, let's go to Edmonton where they added two goalies. We spoke quite a bit about the Levi trade yesterday, but late in the afternoon they add Freddie Anderson. Stanley CupW winning Freddie Anderson on a one year deal. It can be up to 2.75 with if he hits all of his incentives. Obviously he's. He's an older goalie so they were able to kind of work that contract. What do you think of Edmund?
- [17:35]
B
You can, you can do that with older goalies. You can have bonuses that incentivize play well when they're.
- [17:43]
A
When they're sure fire first ballot hall of Famers. They may not be as open to those types of contracts.
- [17:50]
B
Gotcha.
- [17:51]
A
Okay, what do you think of Edmonton's goalie situation? Because I get on here and I hammer the Oilers goalie situation and the way they've handled it, I feel like I do it once a week. It is like a segment, a weekly segment on the Athletic Hockey Show. Let's bring Jesse on so you can complain about how he doesn't like the way the Oilers are handling their goalie situation. And I did give him some props yesterday. I thought Levi was a low risk potentially. Like I think that's a potential solution for them. I'm skeptical about Freddie Anderson. What do you like? I to me, I thought last year looked like it was the end. With an older player you're always wondering. It's going to come eventually. I thought that was it for him. Now I looked wrong. Through three rounds of the playoffs he was playing well. I thought he was very insulated. And then the moment he wasn't insulated, we saw that he is still not very good at this age. I've loved him over his career. I don't think he's a very good goalie anymore at this age. What are your thoughts on Edmonton taking a low, low cap hit? Obviously it's a pretty low risk chance on Freddy.
- [18:50]
B
Of all the things they could have done between the pipes, this is probably the best thing they could have done. Anderson throughout his career has been a hot and cold goalie. He either looks like the best goalie in the world or the worst goalie in the world. And you sort of take the variance that on balance he's been a Pretty good starter for most of his career. The problem with him has always been availability. Maybe not always, but definitely will last several years. So I don't know. Even if he only plays 20 games for Edmonton, I think it'll be an improvement over what they have trotted out over the last five years or so. Maybe not some of the peak Skinner years because Skinner feels like Anderson light with the way he also runs hot and cold. But I. I like the bet here. I like what they did with Levi as well. Hopefully Jari can bounce back. It feels like they have a bit more clarity at least. And hey, maybe Anderson can play 40 games for the first time in, I don't know, five years or so. And he was so good in the playoffs that I still have belief that he can add some value. And at that cap hit, why not? There probably wasn't a better option other than the guy they already spurned.
- [20:09]
A
Right? Right. Yeah, I completely agree. And it's going to be interesting. With three goalies under contract, I would imagine either they're going to hold three, which seems unlikely, or Jari is going to end up getting buried in the minors. Because you're not. I would be very surprised. You obviously can't put Levi down there. The whole reason you have Devin Levi is because he was going to be waiver exempt and Buffalo knew he wasn't going to get through waivers, so they had to trade him for something. So Levi's definitely going to be on the roster. Freddie Anderson, this tiny little contract, you could lose him on waivers. So Jari, you know, nobody's going to claim him on waivers. So it wouldn't surprise me if Jari ends up being the one, the third goalie in this system. Even though he obviously makes the most money by a lot, I think that helps you be able to get him through waivers. You can ride with Freddie and Levi. And then in the event that Freddie doesn't stay healthy for the whole season, which has pretty much been his M.O. lately, you do have Jar. You can call Jari up and you still have tandem. Is that kind of how you see it shaken out?
- [21:09]
B
Yeah, when you put it that way, it feels kind of low key. Genius. That Jari's cap hit is so bad that he's basically waiver exempt. So I don't know if they have the room they can keep on the roster. But like, why not send the ahl, let him work on his game, work out the Kings. Because when he's on, he's been a good goalie. He was a good goalie before. Edmonton traded for him and I think people in the know realized that that was a classic Jari hot streak and they were buying at a high. But I, I, when you put it that way, I do like that bet that they can basically run three goalies while also knowing that Jari can play in the AHL whenever he wants, basically.
- [21:54]
A
Right. Unless he's awesome. And if he's awesome, then that's a great problem to have. Like, like if you get to a point where you're like, we can no longer waive Jari or he'll get claimed, well, going great. Like, like at that point, you're, it's a good problem to have. All right, we're going to take a break. We're going to come back with the best value contracts that were signed yesterday. They weren't a ton, but we tried our best to find them. All right, welcome back. And during the break we got breaking news and it's very exciting and it's perfect timing because we're going to talk the best contracts and this is a heck of a contract. Alex Ovechkin, the NHL's all time leading goal scorer, is coming back to Washington for A very minimal $4 million, 4.25 AAV for the best goal scorer to ever live. Dom, your thoughts?
- [22:46]
B
How can you not love this deal? How can you not love Ovechkin coming back for one more season? And honestly, the Caps have built a good enough team with free agency with some trades that they've made that there's a chance that OVI can go out on a high, win one last cup. It is impossible not to root for that scenario where Ovechkin retires after one last swing around the ice and obviously his game is not where it once was. I have been adamant for several, several years. Every time we do player tears, the Caps fans get mad at me because we have Ovechkin lower than they think because he scores a lot of points. But people around the league realize how he gets that and not nothing wrong with that, especially since they've built a fantastic team around that to hide Ovechkin. The offensive zone. He didn't have any. I think he had one defensive zone start last year or something. Power play time, what have you. But at 4 million, he can still score, he can still put up points. That is a hell of a deal. If I'm thinking Alex Ovechkin at 4.25 or Colton Sissons at 4.25, I think I know what I like better.
- [24:09]
A
Yeah, I think he's Going to give him a little more value. Washington, like now, winning the off season is not always a good thing. It does not always work in your favor. But I would argue that maybe the Capitals are the winners of the off season. I mean, they get Jordan Cairo, they add Alex Tuck, they add Boone Jenner, you bring Alex Ovechkin back. This team now up the middle with Dylan Strom, Pierre, Luke Dubois, protest. They're not the strongest up the middle, but this team is absolutely loaded on the wing. They add dejarne on the defense. Their defense was already really strong. I like both their goalies. I like the tandem that they've got going between Thompson and Lindgren. There's a lot to like for Washington. And Carolina is the clear class of the Metro Division. Unlike the Atlantic, which is just stacked from top to bottom, the Metro is a gettable division. Like I think washing easily be the second best team in that division. They're having a hell of an off season.
- [24:58]
B
Yeah, I don't think it's particularly close. The one thing I really respect about Washington is I think they know they probably have one of the worst first lines in the league. They might have the best bottom nine in the league after this where you talk about running four lines. They're going to run four lines and they are going to have maybe three second line. They might have four second lines, which. Why not? I, I don't hate what they're doing. I know Caps fans been at war with them for a decade now, mostly because they don't have that top end talent. But they're getting to like an inflection point where the depth is so good that they might be able to do something. Carolina, like last season, they don't have the top end talent that Carolina has. That's my concern. I don't think it'll work. But this is the best example I can see of a team being able to do a lot without a true star. And when I say that, I do mean a true star skater. Having Logan Thompson as one of the top five goalies in the league is a heck of a thing to ride on if you have a team like that in front of him.
- [26:13]
A
Yeah, he's been phenomenal, all right. The best contract that was signed yesterday before OVI came in and broke the Internet. Ivan Demidov in Montreal. It wasn't a UFA signing. It's obviously just them extending him. But he gets 8 years, 9.15 million. We spoke about it on the show a little bit yesterday about how teams are starting to do this more, especially Montreal, signing these guys out of their elc. You can get value as a team. The player is happy to take all that big bag of money from a value perspective and just projecting this over the next eight years. How great is his contract?
- [26:47]
B
It is fantastic as is. And that is if you are as conservative as possible about Demidov's trajectory, like just the baseline of what he can be. You think that is going to be a first line player? That's his baseline. And with that, I think you can get to him being in $11 million play on average the last few years of the deal. That could push to like 14 or whatnot. And that is just based on him being a normal first line player. If that is the average case and it's already a great deal and you know everything you know about Ivan Demidov. The potential for this to be one of the best contracts in the league is immense because of how high Demidov's ceiling is where he has franchise winger potential, he has Kucherov potential. If he gets to that level where he's one of the best wingers in the world, which is a definite possibility with how talented he is. Like, we could be talking about someone who ends up as a $20 million winger making less than 10, which is sort of what they already have with Hudson on defense. So that combo makes Montreal extremely scary over the next decade where having that efficiency means they'll be able to add whoever they want as they enter the prime of this. This window.
- [28:17]
A
For sure, that core locked up and I was kind of comparing it yesterday to like the Nathan McKinnon contract way back when. And like you look at it, I remember like towards the last couple years of that contract, you're looking at, you have to like almost do a double take. Like, I can't believe he makes. How the hell did they sign him to that deal? This deal, by the last couple of years of it, we could be looking at it like that, like now 9 million feels like a lot. Six years from now, the cap's going to be so high, 9 million is going to be. You're going to be paying like second line wingers that amount. And this guy could be one of the best in the entire NHL. It could be ridiculous. I agree. Another winger who got a huge extension. Tyson. Tyson, Forster in Philadelphia. Not as like, I don't know. He only scored 13 goals in 29 games last year. He was banged up. He gets eight years, $7.1 million. How does that project for. For you? And then I Guess compared to the Demidov deal.
- [29:11]
B
Yeah. I think on the surface you see someone who's paced at just under 50 points two seasons in a row getting 7 million and you think there's some sticker shock there. That's a second line forward, if that, maybe a third line forward. I know there's some Flyers fans who are frustrated about his lack of production. Perhaps they know he can score but like the rest of it might not be there with Forester. Like that is not what the Flyers are spending this money on. He is I think one of the most underrated defensive wingers in the league. And obviously you want centers with that profile, but having the kind of impact he does on the wing is a huge part of their identity as a defense first team. And I think with what he adds in that realm, the fact he has 30 goal potential, he is definitely a lot more valuable than the 7 million. Especially when you figure this is eating up his entire prime as the cap goes up when by the end of this, 7 million might be what we're paying for middle six guys. And he has, I still think he has some top line upside even if it's not like at a premier level. He might be someone who's there because his defensive impact is so good and he can put the puck in the net the way he does for sure.
- [30:33]
A
All right, let's go to the guys that were actual UFAs yesterday. Victor Arvidson signs in Detroit, a guy who had a big bounce back year with Boston. How do you think he fits? Because I feel like this is a player who he's been on a bunch of different teams lately and at times he looks like this deal could be a great value. He signs for two years with the Red Wings at 5 million a year. But then we've seen him on other teams where whatever, the fit wasn't right and he just didn't look like he would be worth a $5 million player. What do you think about how he fits with the Red Wings in that contract?
- [31:03]
B
Well, just one team he didn't fit with and that is somehow the team with the two best centers in the league or two of best centers depending on how you feel about Tri Seidel. So none of that is a problem here in Detroit where he'll play with Andrew Cop and that worked well in Boston when he was playing Zaka worked well in la. Forgot who he was playing with, might have been Janelle, but he is a real good threat off the rush. He when he's not playing with the best player in the world is a 60 point pace threat and I think pace is a very important thing to say here because he might not play 60 games this year. He is always injured in some way. But even with that in mind, I think this is really good value for Detroit and gives them a genuine top six piece that this team is, is hungry for. And the fact he can drive play and be an efficient score at 5 and 5 is A, is a big deal because they, that's something they've been missing from their offense where a lot of their goals come from a stacked power play and then they just don't do anything at five and five. Arvidson was third in five on five points per 60 last year behind Kucharov and McKinnon, which is wow, huge. And obviously a lot of that comes with the role he plays and being behind Pasternak. But when you're scoring like that, I think that's, it's hard to chop at. What was it, 5 million?
- [32:30]
A
Yeah, not bad.
- [32:31]
B
Not bad.
- [32:32]
A
He, he, he can forecheck too. They, they trade for Golden Knights fourth line forward Keegan Kolasar who is not a prolific scorer, but he is a heck of a four checker. He gives line a little bit. What do you think of, of what Detroit's doing? And like they're a fascinating team because they, it feels like the rebuild is done but they're, it's hard to see them moving up the Atlantic. Like the Atlantic. We just, I just mentioned how stacked the Atlantic is. Like where do you, where is Detroit to you right now at this point in their, in their what has been a forever rebuild at this point. And there aren't a lot of elite, correct me if I'm wrong, there aren't a lot of elite guys coming up. So it feels like this is the rebuild. Like this is the team. Are they good enough?
- [33:16]
B
No, I, I think this was the risk they took three years ago when they started accelerating before they accumulated the kind of franchise cornerstones they needed to be competitive. Like I love Raymond. I love cider. Edmondson's great too. If those are the three cornerstones that you're working with, you are several pieces short. And I think that's the issue, especially because they have not hit on picks outside of those three. Like Nate Danielson still has a lot of time, but he did not really impress in his I think first season back in the day. I think there's a Kenny Holland pick. Michael rasselson was like ninth overall. He is just topping out as a third line guy. best, Marco Casper. I still have some hope for him, but like, like you're hoping he's a top six center. I don't know if there's first line center upside. So there's just not a lot of players coming up that can be genuine difference makers. And there are a lot of players that they have that just feel like they're just there. And so when the Atlantic is rising up and there's an arms race, even if you think like Detroit is like just a shade below average with Larkin that is seventh or eighth in Atlantic, it's just not good enough. They need like monumental jumps from some of these young guys that are, you'd hope over ripening in the ahl and maybe there's something there, but it just feels like they drafted for floor rather than ceiling and now they're not even getting that floor. And looking. I. I was doing some draft pick analysis because I wrote a thing on rebuilds last week and the Red Wings looking at the pick capital they had and what they've turned it into is the story like they had close to enough pick capital compared to other rebuilds. They just have not turned it into capable NHL talent. Yep.
- [35:25]
A
I totally agree. All right, we're. We're sticking with wingers. To me, this was one of my favorite contracts yesterday. Matt Succarello goes to the Kings for one year. $1 million. $1 million. We're seeing. We're seeing guys who maybe don't have as many points in their career as Zuccarello did last year for the Minnesota Wild getting 4 million and Zuccarello for 1 million. I don't know what's going on here. How did Zuccarello not give more than that? Maybe he just really wanted to land in la. I don't. This is a, A phenomenal contract for the Kings. He still looks like he has plenty left to offer and adds to a really stacked group of wingers already in la.
- [36:05]
B
Yeah, I think like later in the day, and I missed this as well when I was writing best contracts, but I don't think it matters is that there's a bonus I think at 10 games for like 5 million or something like that.
- [36:15]
A
Oh, okay.
- [36:16]
B
So that makes things make a bit more sense. But even at that price, I think Sucral is worth it. He was almost a point per game player last year. I think he is a definite top six forward. He's probably one of the best playmakers in the league still to this day. And obviously there's a bit of a capri sav effect to his numbers last year, but he still has a lot of juice offensively. I think he like his. His worth to me was like closer to 7 or 8 million. So there's still a lot of value here. And even if you think, oh, he's old, he's gonna drop off, which I. I do project with that 7,8 million number, if he drops off a little more than that, like, I think it's still, there's still a lot of leeway for him to be worth this deal. And considering the King's best winger, our Tommy Pan Aaron, who is old, Kirill Caprisoft, basically. And at this point, like, I like the fit as well and it makes the Kings a lot more formidable and I think a very soft Pacific Division.
- [37:21]
A
Yeah, totally agree. And like the caprice of effect of him, like, well, if he's playing on the top line with Panarin and Quentin Byfield, like he's. He could probably have the same effect. Like maybe those guys aren't quite Kirill Capri sov, but they're very good players. So. Yeah, I totally agree. I think LA's got some questions. Up the middle right now. Eric Halla is their second line center, which is not ideal, but on the wing they're stacked and they've got a good defense. So they're going to be. It's interesting and like you said, the Pacific's not the strongest division. All right, let's wrap up the strongest or the best contracts of the day with my favorite contract of the day, Stuart Skinner. I can't believe he only got 3.25 million or 3.75. Whatever it was, it was under $4 million. For a goalie who is a proven workhorse starter who can play 50 games a year, you can argue whether he was the reason they were in the Stanley Cup Final or whether they drug him there. And he was. They somehow made it despite him. I think it's somewhere in the middle. I think he played a role, he played his part. I think a better run team would never have pulled him in the playoffs. I think he's a significantly better than goalie than Calvin Pickard and he never should have been pulled in my opinion. Whatever the case is, he's a starting goalie who plays 50 games a year and has played in two Stanley cup finals. He was good enough to get there regardless of who the players in front of him were. So for Winnipeg to get on a day where everybody's getting four and five million dollars to get a starting goalie for three. Three and change is phenomenal value for me.
- [38:49]
B
Yeah, it's hard to hate that deal. I wonder obviously if that's a precursor to a trade for Hellbuck and what the ramifications are with that. But even if they keep Hellbuck, having Skinner around to play 25, 30 games of quality hockey is I think a big deal for this team where you can rest Hellback more and be better prepared on the nights where he's not playing. No disrespect to Eric Comrie, he was fine. But Skinner is a lot better where they have some flexibility at the position where if they do trade Hellebach, they can still be an effective team because they have a proven workhorse starter. And obviously Skinner is not the ideal workhorse starter, but at that price, you just really can't go wrong at all. And it is frustrating if you're an Oilers fan to be on the Jari train right now for I think he's still making five or whatever it is because a Skinner Anderson tandem would have been great and a three headed monster with Levi behind them, I, I think would have been a really good bet. It's just a shame that they sold low on Skinner at the bottom of his value for Jari at the top of his.
- [40:14]
A
Yeah, for sure. I, I think it does mean Hellbacks getting traded just because I would never pay Connor Hellebock's backup that much money. Even even though I said it's a great value. Like he's gonna play 60 games. So because he's kind of like, you can't tell him no, I don't like I agree that maybe it'd be better if he played 50, but he won't, he'll play 60. So I think it's going to happen. But I agree with you, like say, okay, the hypothetical one is Buffalo. You get ukopec a Lucanin back if you're Winnipeg, I think a tandem of UKO Peka Lukonen and Stuart Skinner, you can still like compete for a playoff spot with those as your goalie. So like assuming the guys in front of them are good enough, I think that that tandem can get it done. So yeah, I totally like it. Let's take another break and we'll come back and Dom can anger fan bases by telling them how bad the contract their team just signed was. All right, welcome back. And now the fun part. We get to talk about the worst contracts and we're going to start with. It's funny because I remember reading the. The, the teams that are in the best cap situation. We had a story on the athletic that was really great and it broke down every team and under the Sharks said bad contracts none. And then a day later they signed Jacob Truba to four years, $8.25 million per year. I think that the nun label on bad contracts has come to an end.
- [41:29]
B
Dom, how did he get a raise? How did that happen? I don't, I don't understand. He wasn't, he wasn't that good last year. That's the, that's the like I understand he had a bounce back because he was that bad with the Rangers the year prior because he was getting buried in tough computer. But you see just how good Miller was away from him in Carolina and obviously some of that is the Carolina factor. But I just don't think he was that good last year. I think he played at like a number four level. He's at an age where it's not safe to continue expecting that. He's had red flags before the, before free agency opened I had an article saying like looking at the free agents to avoid and Truba was top of list because of all these factors. And his projected contract was I think around six and a half which felt like too much for someone who is a 4 or 5. The fact that he got 8.25 is ridiculous to me for what he is at this stage of his career. I think he has a lot of intangibles, leadership. I believe he is a former Mark Messier leadership award winner. I could be wrong. So you know, he is a good teammate, good locker room guy, all that stuff. I don't mind the addition to the Sharks locker room because of what he adds, but at this price it is very difficult to stomach and you just have to hope that it doesn't interfere with what the Sharks need to pay a bunch of up and coming forwards. If they need to bridge anyone because of this deal, it would, it will be a massive failure.
- [43:21]
A
Right. Okay. So you kind of took me to where I was going to go with this was because I think if you just ignore the dollar amount, pretty much everyone would unanimously agree that this is a good addition for a young Sharks team that could use some physicality on the back end and a veteran like him like that, that part of it pretty much everyone would agree is good. Now the sharks had like $50 million in cap space so you could say well it doesn't like money doesn't matter to them because they have so much cap space that they can just overpay him. Do you think there's A chance that within this four years they do need cap space. Like it, like, is there, like, are they on a pace where three years from now they're in a cap crunch? Because right now they clearly aren't in the contract doesn't matter for this season, but things happen quickly in the league. They've got a bunch of really, really good young players who are going to need huge bags of money. It's just a matter of like, when is that going to happen? Do you think this contract could end up hurting them?
- [44:16]
B
I think in isolation maybe not. And it might have been fine. Once you also add Darnell Nurse and you're paying 17 million for two guys who. I think, I think Nurse is a true top four defenseman. So I, I hate that less. Maybe they didn't know they were getting Nurse because I think that was a last second thing for Nurse where he switched up who he'd be willing to wait for. Having both could be genuinely detrimental to the point where I think I would preferred 15 times one for Truba if you really, really wanted him. Like the money doesn't matter this year, it might matter next year and the year after that. And I know we're in an era where the cap is exploding and every year a new 10 million gets added. But once a bunch of legacy contracts start drying up, once Celebrini needs his extension, what, Smith needs an extension, once Misa needs his extension, once Stenberg needs extension, things are gonna add up pretty quickly here. And if Sam Dickinson leaps off the page next year, that could be a pricey one too. And I don't know, it's just, it feels like an unnecessary risk for a guy who doesn't move the needle on the ice as much as I think a lot of people expect him to. And it just feels like an extreme overpay for all the other stuff that, that does matter, but just not at this price for sure.
- [45:46]
A
Another defenseman on a young team that got paid a ton of money, Bowen Byram, comes over in the trade from Buffalo, gets inked to a six year contract at $12.5 million per year. He is the highest paid defenseman in the entire NHL. And that seems like it shouldn't be the case.
- [46:07]
B
Yeah, I think you can just say Bowen Byram is the highest paid defenseman in the NHL and think, yeah, that's probably not correct. Look, I think Byram has more to give as the top dog. I don't think it's as much as Chicago thinks it'll be. Like, I think if you give him all the power play time. If you play him with Bedard, he is probably has like number two upside. The defensive game is just not there. He is currently a number three defenseman. I don't know how you make the leap from number three to highest paid defenseman in the league. The whole point of finding a secret number one is you get value somewhere. So Carolina for example, they got Miller last year for two firsts and a second I think if I recall and they signed for seven and a half million. His value is now above seven and a half million. That was the upside. The first and second I think Moro who doesn't matter like there's a bit of sticker shock there but at least got value on the contract. Chicago paid a higher price for an at the time worst player and then gave him a contract that is almost unfathomable because of the lack of upside that is here. Like I like Byron obviously had all the leverage because of the trade cost and they sort of said you got to pay us is what it is. It's not even for the full eight years. So I don't know. It is just hard to believe a team operating in 2026 would give a deal of this magnitude to a player this. Okay, that's, that's the gist of it, right.
- [47:59]
A
I, I think he has upside and I think he could end up being really good. But I totally agree with your point. I think the. You, you completely nail it with the point of the trade value and the contract they are paying for peak like they're paying for the best he can be. So there's no option like he won't overplay. Like he's not going to outplay this contract. He's not going to outplay because you're, you're paying him as if he is going to hit his peak and it just. The only thing he can do, the best thing he can do is live up to the contract and anything else is going to be. Is going to be a bad value. Like it's, it does seem like a tough one for him to live up to and let's stick on that. It seems like a trend defenseman getting tons of money here in Vegas. Rasmus Anderson, it's. It was the worst kept secret. It's funny because when I mentioned Vegas did nothing yesterday and you were like well they got one of the biggest fish like in. In my head Rasmus Anderson has been signed for six weeks. So it didn't even feel like an announcement when they announced it yesterday. Like I knew he was going to be in Vegas. Like he, the guy has, has been wanted. He wanted to come to Vegas before he was even here. When he was in Calgary. I figured that this extension was coming from the moment they traded for him last January. He ends up signing a seven year deal at 8.5 million. He wasn't a great fit here in Vegas. I'll start by saying I've watched superstars get integrated into a team more than most beat writers over the last few years because it seems to happen at least once a year, sometimes twice a year. And they all follow a similar path. Like I remember when Max Pacioretti first got here and I was like, wow, this guy is not what as good as I expected him to be. And then it happened with Alex Petrangelo when he first came in. I was like, wow, this contract might be a disaster. He's not the like the guy. But then eight months later, he is the guy. It happened with Jack Eichel when he came over. It happened with Mitch Marner this year. The first three, four months of Mitch Marner were not great here in Vegas. And that was the case for Rasmus Anderson. The way they're paying him, he better find another level because he was not great. It was not a great fit here in Vegas. He didn't have the best playoff run. Part of me wonders if that's just. He's just following the same trend I've seen with all these other players. And he is going to find another level. The Golden Knights certainly are going to need him too, for what they paid him.
- [50:19]
B
Yeah, I think when you bring up the past players, the difference for me is they were all stars and I don't think Anderson is that. Yeah, like I was paying attention to Marner this year. I was paying attention to Eichel when he came along. Like I felt like those players like seeing them come along, you figure they're gonna be better. You figure there they have another gear because you've seen the other gear. I we've seen the gear that Anderson has in Calgary. It's just not at an 8.5 million level. I think he had a pretty good 10 game stretch to end the season last year with Vegas where you think, okay, maybe this will work. Maybe he does have that chemistry with Hannifin. But then the playoffs happen and I think this is the biggest problem is against tougher opponents, he gets exposed. His defensive game is not very good. A lot of his offense stems from like individual point production where I don't think he's really moving the needle for the team wins wise more than. He's just padding his own stats. And there's nothing wrong with that in a vacuum. That does have value in some ways, but it just feels like a lot to pay for that for a team that's generally been pretty price sensitive on good players like this is he's the highest paid defenseman on the team and he is the fourth best defenseman on the team. Perhaps depending on how you feel about. I don't know how old Braden McNabb is at this.
- [51:57]
A
He's old, but he's. He's old, but he's awesome. He's. He's awesome. Yeah, he's like the engine of this team. Like, the, the guys love him. And yeah, he's definitely not gonna be. He doesn't show up in the highlights as often as rasmus Anderson, but McNabb's still a great defenseman.
- [52:11]
B
Yeah. So I'm not incorrect then in saying that Anderson's the fourth best defense on the team, making eight and a half million dollars. They got a deal with Theodore. They were. They did okay on Hannifin. They did great on McNabb's deal. All of that went to Anderson, and I'm just not sure he's the bet I would have made, especially given. I don't know if he's 30 or he's about to turn 30, but it's just. I don't know. I don't. I don't think he's that guy. I don't. I. I have always viewed him as. Maybe not always. He had that one year in Calgary where Pedro and Kachuk went off, but like, he's just always felt like a secondary layer and that's an expensive ticket for, for what he is. And I know we're gonna. We're about to fight about Pavel Dorfev, but I would have rather just given that money to him, given how good he, how much a weapon he is on that power play, how strong he was on the second line, whether he was driving it or not. I think he adds more to this team than Anderson does.
- [53:16]
A
I mean, that's a fair argument. I, I think Anderson, he's. I agree with you. He's not great defensively. His gap control for. He. He's a good skater. Like, the guy is fleet of foot. He's a good skater. Usually if you're a good skater, your gap control is excellent because that's like the main factor in that. But for some reason, he just, like, when I watch him, it seems like he can't get it right. Like he either backs off of guys and gives them all the time and space in the world when they're entering the zone or he's too aggressive and gets burned around the corner. It's very strange for a guy who moves as well as he is for his gap control. Like if you told me the problem is just in front of the net, battles in front of the net. Okay, I would understand that a little more. He's more of a finesse player. He's an offensive guy. Like it's not that surprising that he's not a force in front of his own net. But to not be good in transition is strange. Like Shea Theodore, for example. Offensive defenseman. He's not the strongest guy in front of the net, but in transition he is like just a wizard. Like he is brilliant with the gap control. That wasn't the case for Rasmus so far, at least offensively. It's going to be hard for him to. It's going to be hard for him to live up to this deal with his point production because most of his points in Calgary were on the power play. And now you're on a Vegas team that either uses five forwards like now with Dorothy have gone, maybe things change. But they used five forwards for 99% of the season last year. Or it's not going to be Rasmus on the power play. It's probably going to be Shea Theodore there. If they do use a defenseman, they don't use the second unit basically at all. They all just, they just play the top unit, the entire power play for the most part. So even if he's on the second unit, it's going to be very limited. So he's going to have to get those points at 5 on 5. It just seems very unlikely that, that he's going to. You're not going to go well. The defense isn't great, but his offensive point production is making up for it and it's worth 8 million. It's going to be tough for him to do that, I think without getting much power play opportunity.
- [55:07]
B
Yeah, I. Here's another worry is because they paid him the most is they give him that power play opportunity instead of Theodore, which is an on ice loss because I don't think Anderson's even that good on the top power play. They might go. They won't go three forwards, two D but maybe they just like that. So I, I don't know. I, I figured after seeing it not work, especially in a playoff setting that Vegas would have said Never mind. We don't want to do this anymore.
- [55:44]
A
After trading all that for him, though, they gave up a first, a second Zach, White Cloud, and a prospect I feel like they had cornered themselves into. It's like, it's almost like a law, like a lost cost fallacy, if I'm saying that right. It's some like they, they just were like, we already traded all that. We can't not sign him. Is. Is the way I viewed it.
- [56:03]
B
Yeah. I don't know if you should be operating a team based on the sunk cost fallacy.
- [56:08]
A
There you go, There you go. There you go.
- [56:09]
B
It is a sunk cost. It didn't work. Cut your losses, which is what they probably should have done because they probably could have found a top four defenseman who was better and cheaper. Like, I, I don't know. I, I think for an organization that is generally smarter than a lot of others, this felt. Not that.
- [56:39]
A
Yeah, it is. It is. This is a team that. And it's a team that makes hard decisions better than most. And this would have been a hard one. They. They clearly believe in Rasmus. We'll see. Like I said, I've seen. I've seen players start out slow and come around. We'll see if he ends up doing it. All right, let's wrap it up quickly with an argument about Sergey Bobrovsky. Because I came on the show yesterday and said it's absolutely brilliant. Now it's only going to be brilliant if the Leafs are good. If the Leafs aren't any good like they were last year, then this is a stupidity signing him to this. But I think the Leafs were better than they showed last year. I think the goaltending problems were a big reason they were as bad as they were. I think they can still be a playoff team. And if they are, this was my argument yesterday. I'll lay it out to you. You're. You've. You've suffered with the Leafs. Unlike the guys who I laid it out to yesterday, the Maple Leafs in the playoffs. There's clearly a mental hurdle there. When something goes wrong, it certainly feels like that team says, here we go again. We're the Maple Leafs. Here it goes again. I can't think of anything in the world that would get rid of that feeling more than having Sergey Bobrovsky in the net. And I can't think of anything that would give them confidence that this is going to be different this time. So that when something goes wrong, you don't immediately feel that way. Then having a 2 time Vezina 2 time Stanley cup champion. Yes, he's coming off a bad year, but this guy has just been nails in the playoffs. And even if he has a mediocre regular season, I think there's still belief that he's going to turn it on in the playoffs because we've seen him do it in Florida. That's my argument for why overpaying Sergey Bobrovsky was a good deal. Why do you hate it?
- [58:15]
B
I think in that sense, sure. I hope it works. We saw that happen to the Leafs with Carey Price who was mediocre in the regular season, turned it on in the playoffs and ruined lives in Toronto. If that same thing happens. But for Toronto, that would be great if you could be reasonably confident that will happen. Because you are reasonably confident that Sergey Bobrovsky is a big game goalie. Absolutely. Sure, why not? I don't really buy that. I think there's some element of clutch to his game. I don't know if you can set your watch to it to the point where you can stomach him being being mediocre during the regular season. He's 38. He's coming off the worst season of his career. The season before that was also below average during the regular season he in that playoffs. I think the defensive strength of the team maybe didn't carry him but was a much bigger story than the year before that and the year they went to the cup final where Boboski ruined Toronto's life in the second round. So I think in that sense a lot of his ability has been hidden by Florida being a very strong defensive team. I do think that it's a bit underrated what he had to deal with last year with injuries and I think despite Florida being a like a great defensive team, it is underrated. The kind of shots that he has to face, like I think they're because they're so aggressive. There's a lot of breakaways, there are a lot of stuff like that that Carolina plays a similar fashion where I think public numbers will underrate Bobrovsky a little bit. To me I don't mind the addition. I like the idea of it have him in source of tandem. It is the price and the term where I think it is too expensive given what he was last year and I think it's too long given his age. If this was two years, I probably don't care about capit. If this is three years, I care that it's $7 million. The fact that I think they lost on both of those things is the issue for me. We just saw Carolina go the distance with Frederick Anderson and Brandon Bussey because the money was spent where it matters. Where you can predict with a, with more clarity of what value you're getting. The fact that you have no, like we have no idea what Bobrovsky is going to be. And that is part of the fun is that he could just return to form and be amazing and awesome, be worth every dollar. There's also the chance that he can be exactly as bad as he was last year and cost $7 million when that could have been another top six forward. You look at Florida's top nine and it is stacked from top to bottom. The Leafs spend all this money on a goalie they maybe didn't need, on a bottom six that doesn't add a lot of offense. And it just feels a little backwards to where the top teams in the league are going with Carolina, with Florida, with Colorado, where there is not just depth in terms of players that can play, but like depth in terms of players that can play in both directions. There are a lot of now one dimensional guys in Florida, in Toronto's bottom six and they earmarked I think a bit too much money into a problem that I don't know if it needed to be solved. I would have been perfectly fine with Stollers and Wall and Hildeby as a, as a three goalie thing. I don't know if Emil Andre is worth giving up Wal and then paying 7 million to a guy who was notably bad last year enough for Florida to go in a completely different direction. So Florida saying we don't want you. I don't know. I'm. I'm worried.
- [62:30]
A
It's certainly fair. You, you lay out a pretty logical argument. I believe in Sergey Bobrovsky and I just this, the sheer drama and storyline of it. I cannot wait. I can't remember a season a storyline involving a goalie going into a year this juicy in a while with Bobrovsky getting all the money to go to Toronto to be the savior. Oh, I hope, I hope they're in the playoffs just for, just for how fun that storyline is going to be. This has been awesome. Thanks for joining me, Dom. Thanks to Jeff, our producer for setting all this up and thanks for everybody for listening. The Prospect series will be the next show on Monday. Thanks for listening and watching this episode of the Athletic Hockey Show.