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- [00:00]
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- [01:03]
Adam Grant
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- [01:53]
Mark Lazarus
This is the Athletic Hockey Show.
- [02:07]
Max Boltman
Hey, everybody, Max Boltman here alongside Mark Lazarus for another episode of the Athletic Hockey Show. Jesse Granger and Sean McIndo going to join us a little bit later on. But first, we are joined by our NHL insider, Pierre LeBrun as we get set to kick off at NHL Trade Deadline Week. We got a lot to talk about there. But first, Pierre, we had a different kind of news yesterday. The Kings moving on from Jim Hiller. D.J. smith is going to take over in LA. It's a little. Feels a little late to me on the calendar to be making a move like this. What do you think motivated this from the Kings side?
- [02:37]
Pierre LeBrun
Yeah, it's late because it's something Canela never wanted to do. I mean, he, his. His plan all along had been to wait until the off season to make a coaching change or to at least contemplate a coaching change. As everyone knows, he inherited Jim Hiller from Rob Blake. And you know, GMs try to wait as long as they can to make a coaching change. Keep that bullet in the chamber when they become. When they take over a team. And that was certainly the plan for Holland. But you know, after getting waxed the way they did at home to Edmonton, they couldn't. They couldn't just keep going with what they had there. So they made the change. But since significantly did so without bringing in a big name. Right. Interim with DJ Smith and who knows, if he does well, the job could become his. But really what I'm saying is I think there were people wondering whether, you know, can Alan would reach out to Peter the Boar. And that didn't happen. So it doesn't mean it can't happen after the season. But. But it is telling. I think that basically they punted the ball down the road on who ultimately is. Is going to be the head coach. So. So that's really the most interesting part of the news.
- [03:44]
Mark Lazarus
I think this is two straight head coaches that Kenny Holland has fired in season. He's always kind of been a guy that doesn't want to do that, wants to wait until the offseason. Does it just kind of underscore how the game is changing, how the sport's moving at a speed now where you kind of can't take your time anymore? Like when it's urgent, it's always. It's always urgent. It feels like. Yeah.
- [04:02]
Pierre LeBrun
And lies. I guess you can't argue in this case that it's impossible to make trades. So you got to fire the coach he traded for Attorney Panarin for the Olympics. Yeah, I mean. I mean this was one of those situations where it's the last thing and I wanted to do and he just got pushed in a corner and was forced to do it. So. And we'll see if they get the coach bump. I mean they got the coach bump in Columbus, that's for sure, after they made a change there. Rick Bonus coming in for Dean Evanson. So that's what the Kings hope. I mean, the Pacific is still pretty wide open and. Or you could say mediocre. But the playoffs are still very much possibility for la. So that's. That's the point of this year.
- [04:42]
Max Boltman
Do you see them continuing to buy? I mean the Panera and I'm sure is the headline deal of their deadline. But do you think that they'll continue this, this week to look at things.
- [04:50]
Pierre LeBrun
Well, it's interesting, you know, I think that if Kevin Fiala never gets hurt at the Olympics, and, and if, you know, Kuzmenko doesn't need surgery, I think the Kings were actually in a position where if they were totally healthy, they may have needed to actually shed a forward. And now, of course, they don't have to with all the injuries, but I could see them adding, you know, if they can find help at center, I could see that. But certainly, I think they feel that they've made their big move with Panarin.
- [05:17]
Mark Lazarus
The Kings got to jump on the trade deadline by making that Panarin deal. I feel like we've been waiting weeks now. Like, even in the week leading up to the Olympic break, we were expecting some moves to happen. And now we're four days out from the March 6 deadline. That's this Friday at 3pm Eastern time, and there's still kind of no movement. Is that.
- [05:34]
Jesse Granger
Yeah.
- [05:34]
Mark Lazarus
What do you chalk that up to? Is, are there too many sellers? Are there not enough buyers? Are people just feeling things out right now?
- [05:39]
Pierre LeBrun
Well, it's funny you should say that, Laz, because as we tape this, my Monday column just got posted by Jake Leonard, our editor, and that's what I addressed in my piece today. So by the time this airs here, a lot of people hopefully will have a chance to read it. But, you know, I had the same question as you, and it was an incredibly quiet weekend, which is unusual for trade deadline season. Usually the weekend for the deadline, there's a few moves, and we didn't see that. And so there's a number of factors. I talked to a bunch of GMs and agents here in the last 24 hours to get their read on that for the piece I wrote. And, you know, there's two things you have to hit right off the bat. One is obviously the closing of the loophole with LTIR in the playoffs, and the fact there's a playoff cap now is very significant. And so that's number one. I mean, just to illustrate the point, again, let's say Florida was sitting in a playoff spot. They're not right now, but let's say they were sitting in a playoff spot. The fact that they need to keep the door open for Sasha Barkoff to come back because they believe he might if they make the playoffs, means they don't have $10 million at their disposal, which they would have a year ago under the old system. The other factor is the. Is the elimination of double retention and deals Um, I mean, this has been a huge deal here, and, and I've had a number of agents and GM say, yeah, like, you know, you got your team with not a lot of cap space, and that 13 broker used to be a pretty big deal to get a, you know, basically a player salary down 75%, 50, and then. And then another half of that. And. And that's no longer in the system. And so that's had an impact as well. And the third factor is again, the standings and some teams staying in a race that they didn't think they would be in. I mean, you look at Columbus and Nashville and teams that have a lot to sell if they decide to declare themselves sellers, which, by the way, they might still buy Friday. But until that happens, as one GM said to me, there just isn't that much still even on Monday morning on the market that interests me. So, again, ask me tomorrow could be different, but that's where we are as of Monday morning.
- [07:50]
Max Boltman
One of the things that interests me about this deadline is there's kind of a new set of buyers than we've been talking about when we've had John in past years, right? Your Detroit's, your Buffaloes, your Utahs, and Minnesota's already made what will certainly be the biggest trade of this NHL season, but I don't think they're necessarily done either. So it's interesting to see some of the new names. Do you feel like all these teams are really ready to. Detroit and Buffalo certainly have been teams that have been on the other side of these conversations every year that I've been covering the NHL.
- [08:16]
Pierre LeBrun
Utah for sure. I mean, I know it's been out there, but Utah looking at Robert Thomas is really interesting to me, and I'll tell you why. Because Utah is not guaranteed to make the playoffs. They're sitting in a playoff spot, but. But certainly if they're one losing streak away from not being in a playoff spot. And I think the idea that they've at least had talks with St. Louis and Robert Thomas, to me, makes a whole lot of sense because it's a team that, you know, is eager to take that next step. But also that's the kind of move that you would just as well do in June, too, in terms of taking that next step. And so that's the other layer to me to this week that I'm wondering if some teams are going to take advantage of, even teams that aren't in a playoff spot. The UFA class is as bad as we've seen a long time for July 1st. And I just wonder if some teams will look at this and say, well, why aren't we looking at our June to do list now in March and get a head start on some things. I got, you know, I'll bring up Toronto. Obviously, the Leaf should be sellers, but they're not nuking their roster and rebuilding either. As long as Austin Matthews is in Toronto, they're good. They're going to try and bounce back next year and make moves. So if you're the Leafs, while you may sell some pieces, obviously, if there's an opportunity between now and Friday's deadline to make a move that you might look at in June, why wouldn't you do it now if you could? And so I'm intrigued by that part of it, too.
- [09:46]
Mark Lazarus
Well, that's what, you know, we were talking about Nashville off air a little bit, and that's what makes them so intriguing, is they seem like the kind of team that could help a team out. I feel like we're moving past the age of rentals so much as it's you want guys with term because you can't get guys with terminal in free agency in the offseason. So, like a guy like Steven Stamkos, who's got a couple years left, or Jonathan Marchessau, who's three years left, or Ryan O'Reilly who has one year left, it feels like that's the guy. Those are the kind of guys that teams would want to be targeting. But Nashville still right on the cusp of the playoff picture. Do you see them being a major player in this?
- [10:18]
Pierre LeBrun
Yeah, that's the thing. I mean, that's why I wrote about them last week in my rumblings, because I referred to them as the great influencer either way on this deadline, because if they stay in the race and they retain all their guys and a lot of teams are going to be disappointed, but if they decide that, that they want to sell, they could really be a player here. And, you know, listen, I dealt with Stamkos last week. I mean, he doesn't want to go anywhere. But as I. And people read what they want to read, if you look at the. What exactly I wrote, I said if the Predators go to Stamkos and say, you know, we're open to trading, you hear some teams that have called, Stamkos is ready with his list of teams, that that's the crux of it. And, you know, I think the problem for Nashville right now is, you know, is that they don't know yet who their next GM is. So it's a tricky deadline. You know, Barry Trots is still running things. Ownership is very involved, but you might be better off unless you get an unbelievable offer to punt the ball down the road to the new GM in terms of what that person would want to do in a lot of the situations. I mean, at the end of the day, I don't know that the offers for any of those guys under contract are going to be that different this week than they would be in June.
- [11:36]
Max Boltman
To be quite honest, outside of Nashville, there's a few other teams that I would put in that big influencer category you mentioned. Robert Thomas at St. Louis is certainly going to hold a lot of cards this deadline. The Rangers with Trocheck and then the Vancouver Canucks. I mean, which team, which of those teams are you most interested in over the next four days?
- [11:54]
Pierre LeBrun
I think St. Louis for sure. You know, Robert Thomas is 26 years old, so the mere fact that the Blues are listening on Robert Thomas, who has another five years left on his deal is, is kind of amazing and intriguing. It doesn't mean they'll move him, of course. I think, you know, I think Doug Armstrong has never been shy in the past to listen on guys, which doesn't mean he'll move them. He's just exploring what's out there. That's your job as a gm. But I mean, he's a prime example of a player, Robert Thomas, that you should be interested in him unless you're. You believe you're set at center no matter where you are in the standings. I mean, contender bubble team, bad team, 26 year old center that the Blues are listening on. You should be picking up the phone and trying to understand the parameters of that conversation in my mind. So that's. To me, the Blues are by far the most intriguing team. I mean, Justin Falk, Braden Chen, Jordan Kyro, lots of interesting pieces there. But again, in the case of Thomas and Kyro, they have full no moves too, which adds to the layers of intrigue. I mean, you know, what if they don't want to go anywhere?
- [13:04]
Max Boltman
So we'll see with the Blues, I mean, when we start talking about 26 year old centers, I'm a little interested that we haven't heard Colton Pareco's name at all. In that when you're talking about a defender who he's a great player. I get why they wouldn't want to move him. But so is Robert Thomas and he's five, six years younger. Are you surprised we haven't heard Perico's name more?
- [13:20]
Pierre LeBrun
I mean, I know a couple of teams have called on him. So, you know, whether or not that hasn't gotten as much attention, you're right. But I mean, I don't. There's not a lot of Untouchables in St. Louis. And again, I think it's just. It doesn't mean they're going to do a million things, but I think they're. They've had a very disappointed, disappointing season, and so they're listening. And, you know, the. The intriguing part to all that is that at the end of the season, Doug Armstrong's giving the GM keys to Alex Stein. So, you know, it's dark. Armstrong's last deadline as Blues gm. So that too is. Is intriguing.
- [13:58]
Mark Lazarus
You know, I was looking at, you know, our friend CJ put up his latest trade board, and there's two names that just jumped out of me.
- [14:02]
Jesse Granger
I was like, really?
- [14:03]
Mark Lazarus
Are these guys really on the buck? One of them is Jordan Bennington. St. Louis. Again, everyone's on the table in St. Louis, but Elias Pedersen is seven years left at $11.6 million. How is it even feasible to move a contract like Vancouver is not going to retain for seven years on Elias Pedersen? How do you. How do you move a deal like that?
- [14:23]
Pierre LeBrun
I don't. Yeah, Laz. I don't see a world in which the Canucks could ever be interested in retaining on what's left on that deal. So, you know, the only deal that I always thought for Elias Pedersen that made sense to me on some level, and it's only because we know for a fact that Carolina and Vancouver have talk over the last two years about him at different times, was the Hurricanes would. Would they be willing to take him? And then would cocking the Emmy go the other way? And then that. That's almost like a retaining salary mechanism in a way. It gets me as term left on his deal. You know, is that something that makes sense? But I don't know. I don't. I could be totally wrong, which. Which is common at this time of year, but I have a hard time seeing Patterson move. I think that's a tough deal to make in season. I mean, maybe in the off season, we'll see. I mean, the Canucks definitely are. It's almost old school in some ways, but the Canucks are trying to bring it all the way down to the studs here, which you don't see as often in today's NHL.
- [15:29]
Max Boltman
Is there a name that you haven't heard any one of us talk about that you think has a sneaky chance to be a Factor this week.
- [15:37]
Pierre LeBrun
Yeah, let me throw a name out there. And again I, I think it's is probably unlikely but I, but you're asking me a question. So how about John Carlson? He's pending ufa which is the entry point to the conversation. Hasn't signed an extension by now, which on some levels may be mildly surprising given his legacy status there in Washington. The Caps are still in the race, so that's why I don't think they would move him. He's got a, I believe a 12 team, no trade list. I doubt he wants to go anywhere. But I guess what I'm saying is let's just paint this scenario. What if the Caps lose every game they have left this week before the deadline and they get a call, throw a team out there, Dallas Stars who are looking for a right handed right shot D. I don't know. Like the cap showed a couple years ago, they were pretty clever and how they handled their deadline and pivoted and they came back and bounced back. I don't know. Is that a scenario? I think it's mostly unlikely but I'm throwing you a name that's hasn't been out there.
- [16:38]
Mark Lazarus
You mentioned Dallas and you know Rasmus, wrist align and Connor Murphy. There are right shot Ds out there, Colton Reiko even. They have two, two big needs. They need to replace Tyler Sagan in the top six and they desperately need a right handed defense which is the priority for them do you think? Because they probably only have room to make one of them work.
- [16:55]
Pierre LeBrun
Yeah, I think right shot D probably lies, although I think they need both. As you just said, they literally would like to accomplish both this week. The other, you know, factor in all that is that Jim Neal is on record and his market with local media saying he'd rather deal for rentals and not with people with terms. So that takes him out of a few things. You know, if Ryan O'Reilly suddenly became available, does that mean he wouldn't be interested? Tyler Myers would fit in perfectly as a right shot D. And, and we know that Dallas has talked to Vancouver, but is he reticent to go down that path because Myers has another year left on his deal?
- [17:30]
Mark Lazarus
I mean is that just because of Jason Robertson situation that they don't want to get any?
- [17:34]
Pierre LeBrun
That's the number one reason for sure is that they want to make sure they have the flexibility this summer and are not hampered by the cap that they can get an extension down with Jason Robertson. That's absolutely the reason. So. And Thomas Harley's extent extension kicks in. So the stars have to be careful with how they manage all this. You know, the Myers thing, that's, you know, that's still unresolved and as we tape this anyway, and you know, Detroit has an offer on the table, has been widely reported. But I think, you know, wisely, Myers and his agent, veteran JP Barrier saying we're not Friday yet. I mean, let's see if other teams step up. And, and it means that it's not out of the question. He still ends up in Detroit, by the way. It just means that, you know, players shouldn't rush into these decisions when they have time on their side. So we'll see how that one plays out.
- [18:24]
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- [18:24]
Max Boltman
We can't keep Pierre from his phone any longer this week. Pierre, thank you so much for joining us today and good luck. Hope you get a little bit of sleep.
- [18:31]
Pierre LeBrun
I'll get sleep on Friday night. How about that? Hey guys, see you later.
- [18:36]
Max Boltman
We'll take a quick break right there. I'll be right back.
- [18:42]
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- [20:18]
Max Boltman
All right, we are back. And last. Pierce had something there. We said a lot there that was really interesting. But I think one of the things that stuck with me was, was about the importance of this deadline for future roster building. Like for so long we have viewed the trade deadline as being about your playoff push. This year, that year. Right now it's just as as valid of a time to acquire players in a longer term build as anything.
- [20:40]
Mark Lazarus
It feels like it's actually the only way to get players long term this time because the free like, like Pierre said, this is the worst free agency class we're going to see in a long time. And that's probably not going to change. With the cap going up as much as it is, everyone's able to resign their free agents. So when a team is willing to move a player with term, this is your chance. This is your chance to change your team not just for this playoff run, but for the next couple of years, potentially depending on, you know, how many years they have left. Like the age of the rental. There'll always be rentals at the trade deadline. But I think we're seeing the trade deadline evolve this year into something different and frankly something that's more interesting to me when it puts more players out there and it puts teams in a longer term situation where you are not just first round pick, two months of a guy. That's just what it's always been. That's been the formula for years. And it feels like we're getting into something a little bit more nuanced, which I think is exciting.
- [21:27]
Max Boltman
And I wonder if that's why. Like it's interesting to hear all the talk about there's so many sellers because for so much of the year it was like everyone is in it, especially in the East. I wonder if that's kind of why. Because the definition of what fits a seller evolves because you know that those first round picks are in play for guys with term. And if you want a first round pick, if you think you're in a, whether it's a rebuild or a retool, we'll give a guy with one plus one or one plus two. And that'll get us a, a good return here. It can kick start things. And from the flip side, I still think that, that there's teams like, like the Utahs who aren't slam dunks to be in the playoffs.
- [22:00]
Pierre LeBrun
Who.
- [22:00]
Max Boltman
And I think that applies to Detroit as well, where it's like, yeah, but, but you know, you need to win soon here. Minnesota, I Think fits that definition very well.
- [22:08]
Sean McIndo
You.
- [22:08]
Max Boltman
You make a big move for Quinn Hughes for sure, and you spend big to keep Kirill Caprize off. I think now the pressure's up to win in the next three, four years in Minnesota.
- [22:17]
Mark Lazarus
And what do they need? They need a center. What who's on. Who's the top. The top trade target available? It's a center. It's Vincent Trocheck. And everyone looks.
- [22:24]
Max Boltman
They probably can't afford him.
- [22:26]
Mark Lazarus
Well, yeah, exactly. I mean, you look at that and it's just so obvious that Trocheck fits what they need, that it's almost too obvious. It's like when Brock Nelson went to Colorado, we almost didn't think it was going to happen because it was too obvious. And so you wonder if they can make that work because Trocheck is going to be a hot commodity right now. He's still a good player. He showed at the Olympics what he can do in that kind of defensive and penalty killing role. And, you know, Caroline is going to be in on him. Detroit's probably going to be in on him. Boston might be in on him. I think. I think the quick turnarounds that Boston and Pittsburgh have had here, these quick retools, you know, I don't know if they're sustainable yet, but I think they have changed the way a lot of teams view this. Like Pierre said during that last segment, you know, it's been a while since the team has torn it down to the studs. I'm like, no, it wasn't. It was three years ago in Chicago and it was two years ago in San Jose. But it already does feel like that's a relic of a different era. Now you have these teams that want to be able to do it on the fly. And the way you do that is hockey trades, not just futures trades. It's not about getting a first round draft pick three years from now. It's about getting a young player who can help your team right away. And I think, you know, a Vincent Trocheck can, the right kind of trade, just as it did with Vancouver, can instill some young guys into a team that needs it, like New York, and give a veteran player that can help right now, like a team that needs it, like Minnesota. So it's really interesting to see how this will play out.
- [23:41]
Max Boltman
Put yourself in Chris Jury's shoes for a second here because you're right, we've all connected the dots so thoroughly to Minnesota, and I think that it's obvious why.
- [23:48]
Mark Lazarus
Right.
- [23:49]
Max Boltman
Like, they have the need. He's one of the top names out there. He has the term that Minnesota would obviously it's A great contract 5.6 million the Bill Garon, Team USA connection. But you're right when it becomes that out there that obvious there is sort of this sense of like are we too tunnel vision on this? Minnesota has used most of its premium assets to bring in Quinn Hughes. They still have some. They got a first round pick, they got some young players. I imagine they don't want to deal off their roster if they can avoid it. When Harmon and I mocked up like a perfect fits article last week, we we ballpark the price at a first round pick. Charlie Stramel, who's a borderline Hobie Baker candidate for Michigan State, certainly one of the top players on the top team in college hockey, but who got off to a rocky start. Former first round pick. I wouldn't say it's been a smooth path to him to this point but but he's a good player now 63 center but he might just be a 3C if it's Charlie Stramel in a first and maybe there's another prospect thrown in there. Is that enough for Vincent Trocheck if you're the New York Rangers?
- [24:47]
Mark Lazarus
Well, I mean the thing is the Rangers don't have to make that move right now, right? Like Pierre said, they could wait until June to do this stuff too because he is under contract of the year. If they don't like that offer, they could see what's out there in the summer too. So like there's not as much urgency on the Rangers side as there usually is with a pending ufa. And that's another wrinkle that these guys would term add. I don't know what Carolina can offer. I don't know what Boston can offer.
- [25:09]
Max Boltman
Well, for Carolina, Carolina is interesting because in addition to picks like they have, they have some prospects. They have a guy, Bradley Nadeau, who is one of the top scorers in the ahl, but he's a winger. And so it gets into this conversation of like if you're the Rangers, do you want a 3C which is a valuable piece but it's not like a high end piece. And by the way, you just sent this letter to your fan base about how you're going to do do all these things. I think that that's an underrated factor in all this. We talk about like they can wait till the summer. You can. But I also wonder if the fans, if you have a quiet deadline, are the fans going to go what the hell what was the letter for then?
- [25:43]
Mark Lazarus
It's a fair question. When you put yourself out there and you say, this is the plan, there is external pressure to actually adhere to that plan. But you also don't want to rush into stupid decisions. And like you said, Minnesota gave up almost every exciting asset it had to get Quinn Hughes. It was a good trade. And Vancouver did well, and Minnesota did really well. They got an absolute difference maker in Quinn Hughes. They don't have a ton left. So I don't know if I'm the Rangers. I don't want to be boxed in. Just because the fit works for Minnesota doesn't mean the fit works for the Rangers. The Rangers have to be careful. They don't have a ton of great tradable assets, and Vincent Trojek is the best piece they have. They have to maximize the value. Whether that's now or in June shouldn't matter because the next two months don't matter in New York at all. So I think you could sell that to your fans and say, hey, look, we're going to make sure we get extract maximum value out of our best asset and we'll go from there. And you just have to be a little bit of patience.
- [26:35]
Max Boltman
It's like a mixed feeling situation. As a fan, when you have the player that all these good teams want, you're like, okay, good, we're going to get a lot back. But it's also like, wait, if all these teams want him, you know, and New York, I don't think is going to be in position to take advantage of the rest of Vincent Trocheck's prime, which could just be a year or two at this point. He's 32, but you hope for the bidding war, but you have to reckon with the fact that, like, there's a good chance you're just not going to get, like, if a player is this good and this established, Carol, like Carolina, we know what it's going to look like. If it was Carolina, he's done it before there. He's an excellent player. We've talked about how not everyone fits the Rod Brindemar system. We, we know for a fact Vincent Trojek fits it. So you hope for the bidding war, but you also have to reckon with the idea you may never get a guy back as good as him.
- [27:20]
Mark Lazarus
Yeah. You know, sometimes you put your house on the market and you don't get that bidding war you were looking for. You just never know. Trocheck is an older player. You know, he does make, you know, his contract is very fair, don't get me wrong. But it's still a lot of money for a lot of teams to handle. And if he goes to one of these teams other than Minnesota, who he might just be their number one center, you know, it's him and Erickson Ek some, some symptoms he might be a third signer on. Like if you're a legitimate playoff contender, Vincent Trocheck might come in and be a checking line center for you and you might not want to spend five and a half million dollars on a checking line center. So I don't know if there will be a bidding war. He's a good player. He is not, you know, a complete game changing superstar like a Quinn Hughes was. So I don't know that there's going to be a bidding war. I think you're going to get a lot of pretty good offers and the Rangers are going to have to decide if that's good enough for them.
- [28:07]
Max Boltman
The bar to me is if you feel like you get back what New York, the Islanders got back for Brock Nelson, that's when you can pull the trigger.
- [28:15]
Mark Lazarus
Yeah, they got a real player and a first round pick, right. They got Calum Richie in a first round pick. That's a, that's a deadline trade. Right. That's where you really cashed in, where you get a player for now and you get an asset for the future.
- [28:27]
Max Boltman
Speaking of the Islanders, we talked about teams that are, that are full on tearing it down to the studs. A year ago we thought the Islanders might be in that position last. Increasingly they look like the team that's going to somehow pull off the retool. They traded Brock Nelson, they traded Noah Dobson. But through all the ashes emerges. Matthew Schaefer scored his 20th goal last night. First rookie in NHL, his rookie defenseman in NHL history to score 20 goals as an 18 year old. The only, the only the rookie record for this is Brian leesch. He had 23, but he was 20 years old when he did. I think there's a very good chance that Matthew Schaefer is going to have that record by the end of the year as well. I am amazed at just how big a turnaround the Islanders have had and I give at least 60% of the credit to that to Matthew Schaefer.
- [29:16]
Mark Lazarus
You know, I was just, just this morning I was noodling around on hockey references stat head which I love to do with, with Matthew Schaefer. And so here's, here's what I came up with. 18 year old defenseman in the NHL history. Only 22 have had even 10 points in a season. 2218 year old defenseman attend. Only 13 have had 20. Only 8 have had 30. Only 4 have had 40. Phil Housley, Matthew Schaefer, Rasmus Dahleen and Bobby Freaking or good company. This is the company he's keeping. He's in Bobby or territory. What he's doing does not happen. He has the most goals all time among 18 year old defensemen. Already he's played 60 games. Like it's unbelievable. It's not just what he does on the ice. Like if you, when you have a defenseman like that, like, look, I'm in Chicago here. And the Blackhawks drafted Artem Levshinov second overall. You expect that kind of impact from a defenseman. And he came up and he's 20 years old and he's a roller coaster ride. There's some games where he looks really good and there's some games where he looks like a disaster. He never looks anything like what Matthew Schaefer looks like every night. This is incredibly unusual. That's not, that's not a dig on Levchinov. That's young defenseman.
- [30:21]
Jesse Granger
Take time.
- [30:22]
Mark Lazarus
Cale Makar didn't come into the league until he was 21, I think after two years of college. So this is extremely unusual. Matthew Schaefer is doing, but not only is he changing the team on the ice, he's making the Islanders the world's most boring team forever. He's making them exciting. He's completely changed the vibe of that team. That, that team has some swagger now. And it's coming from a child, a literal child has just injected this team with so much swagger. And who would have ever thought you'd say, you know, the Islanders are on, I have to go watch. You have to watch the Islanders every time they're on TV because you can't not watch. Matthew Shaver, he might be the most exciting player in the league.
- [30:56]
Max Boltman
Four of his goals are game winners too. I believe that the number 20 went down as a game winner. Then that's been. I'm surprised it's actually that low. I feel like it's been like six or seven times this year. That in the clutch moment, it's Matthew Schaefer coming through for the Islanders. How long you give it over? Under three and a half years till he wins his first Norris.
- [31:14]
Mark Lazarus
Oh boy, it's tough with McCarr and Hughes still around. Like they're still in their primes. Right. And it's coming. Warrensky's got to get his first. Right. I mean, the Norris is the narrative award and it's whose turn it is. But yeah, I would say three, four years. He'll definitely have one, no question.
- [31:30]
Max Boltman
All right, let's take a quick break.
- [31:32]
Mark Lazarus
Let me ask you before you go into the break. So I don't even remember who was that tweeted this. Someone tweeted this yesterday. Can you make a case for Matthew Schaefer in the heart trophy this year?
- [31:41]
Max Boltman
You can make it. I think it's a harder case to make, but certainly by. By the. By the definition of most valuable to his team. I just gave him like 60% turnaround. I guess I have to give this a good faith consideration. I mean, it. I think that the defensemen that we're talking about in the MVP are tend to be like Warrensky Hughes types where it's just like they're so clearly the best player on their team. And maybe with Hughes, you know, Caprioff and Boldy, but the way he elevated them since he got there and elevated himself since he got there, I don't
- [32:12]
Mark Lazarus
think anybody impacts the game as much as Quinn Hughes does. The puck is just always on his stick. He has complete command of every game he plays.
- [32:18]
Max Boltman
Yeah.
- [32:18]
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- [32:18]
Max Boltman
And I think Schaefer will get there. And certainly he's had an outstanding season. I still think for a defenseman to be there, like it needs to be a little. A little more.
- [32:27]
Mark Lazarus
I bet he sneaks in a few fourth and fifth place votes though, when all said and done here, I think he's going to warrant a couple of. A couple of. You know, I want to make a gesture towards just how impressive this kid
- [32:36]
Max Boltman
has been by the written definition of the award, like playing 24 minutes a night. He's the leading defensive scorer. He's probably the most impactful player on his team. A team that is a surprise playoff team. He's in the top 10, I think. I think you make a very real case that. Yeah.
- [32:53]
Mark Lazarus
Which is amazing considering six months before the draft last year, none of us had any clue who this kid was. It kind of. It kind of. You live in that prospect world and you know, he was not a Connor Bedard. He was not a Macklin Celebrini. He was not a Gavin McKenna. We hadn't heard about him for years to come and people were like, wait a second, this guy's going to get it over. James Hagan's is going to be this random defenseman that nobody's ever heard of who's been hurt all year. But man, it's just, it just goes to show you just don't know when a guy is going to just, you know, take that meteoric rise, take that next step. It's exciting to watch.
- [33:24]
Max Boltman
It's a good lesson too about those, you know, two to three year in advance guys and how to, how to recalibrate your expectations through the year. I think there's a real instinct for people to when you start to hear a new name and it happened with Shane Wright, you know, it certainly happened with James Hagan's happens, happened a little bit this year with Gavin McKenna. Like you want to cling to it because you're like, no, I've been, I've been certain for two years that this is the guy. It is okay to update, update those projections throughout the year, update those evaluations. McKenna, funny enough, like of late, is coming back around and it seems like he may indeed be the first.
- [33:59]
Mark Lazarus
Overall, it's almost like him punching a guy out, increased his stock because I was like, oh, he's got some toughness to him.
- [34:03]
Pierre LeBrun
He's a leader, whatever it is, right?
- [34:05]
Max Boltman
Like he's kind of coming back around. But it is a snapshot at any given moment. Like the best player in the class is a snapshot of what we know to that point. And that is constantly changing. And Matthew Schaefer is certainly evidence of that. Let's take a quick break right there. We'll be right back with Sean McIndu and Jesse Granger.
- [34:25]
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- [36:07]
Max Boltman
All right, we are back and we are joined now by Sean McAdoo and Jesse Granger, who had an excellent piece of late last week about Connor Hallebuck and after the Olympic gold. Jesse, you know, we know that Connor Halibuk is a guy who changed his story for the better in the last week, and he was always been one of the best NHL goalies of his era. But now that he has this Olympic gold medal, the premise of the article really is just how high has his stock risen and what company is he keeping now?
- [36:33]
Jesse Granger
Yeah, it's interesting because it's tough to go Olympic gold medals because we haven't had them for 12 years in the NHL. It's almost like hard to really quantify, like how you compare that to a Stanley cup, for example, which is what most of the goalies were comparing Hellebuk to have. But having that team success performing in that big moment, it was something he needed to his resume. Obviously the guys got individual awards. I mean, already hall of Fame worthy when you look at his trophy case with three Vezina as a heart trophy, two Jennings. Um, it was really just that, that big moment success which we kind of just equate to the Stanley cup playoffs. He obviously found another avenue for that. But yeah, it's, it, it's, it's, it's a, it's a fun debate. And, and Sean was the one who brought it to me. We poured over it. It's. I still don't think we're at a, like, real consensus, but just, I guess. Sean, where, where do you feel like we are after that discussion with, with
- [37:31]
Sean McIndo
Conor Hellebug, I think we wound up with, okay, there's in, in the modern era and we're talking post expansion here. So if we didn't try to compare Connor Halibuk to Terry Sawchuck or Jacques Plant or guys like that, I, I mean there's, there's just too big a gap there. But in the modern era, there's sort of a big three and it's in some order. It's Hassick, Wa Br. Those are the guys that seem to be head and shoulders above on most people's lists. And we kind of said, all right, Connor Helbuk's not there yet. Is he knocking at the door? And I feel like we figured he's still not quite at that point yet, but he's getting close with all those accolades you mentioned. I mean, the knock on Conor Hellebook, yeah, he's got the three Vezinas, he's got the heart trophy, but he never won the big one. And like you said, he didn't just win the big one last week, he stole the big one. This wasn't a guy who went out and, you know, had 24 saves and did what he needed to do. This was a guy who had the game of his life in the biggest game of his life. So, no, he doesn't have the cup ring, but does that not tick that box off? And if it does, then, then where does he wind up? I feel like you and I kind of went the big three is still ahead. I think both of us sort of have Ken Dryden next in line as, you know, whether it's whether he's number four or whether it's a Mount Rushmore and we mix him in with those other three. I think Helibuk's got as good a claim as almost anyone to be in that top five. And maybe that's recency bias. I will tell you though, and Jesse, you can jump in here and let me know what you thought. I was kind of stunned at the level of pushback that we got from some people, commenters, you know, readers, people reaching out. The number of people who feel like Connor Halbuk is not even in the conversation was pretty stunning to me. I, I don't know if you got that sort of feedback.
- [39:37]
Mark Lazarus
Yeah, for sure.
- [39:38]
Jesse Granger
And it's, it's because he was so bad in the playoffs last year. Like you, you mentioned recency bias for the Olympics. I think that's what it is. If you. If we just could Men in Black erase everyone's memory of the playoffs last year? Because he was terrible. The thing is, two years ago against Colorado, the Aves were just so much better than the jets. And I had a hard time placing much blame on Conor Helbuach. Did he, did he single handedly save them? No. But it's not like he was the reason they lost that series. Now, St. Louis, they didn't quite lose the series because of a miraculous buzzer beater, but if they do lose that series, it's absolutely Conor Hellebuk's fault. And I, I genuinely think that that is the sole reason for the negative view of Conor Hellebuk and his legacy. Because when you compare his stats, like people were like one of the goalies. And this is an easy one for me to push back on because it's. To me, it's not even a debate. But Osgood is one of the ones I was getting. And you look at the. And it's like, okay, yes, he won cups, but it's important what the goalie does on his own, like his individual statistics. That's like, like saying Chris Osgood's the best goalie of all time is like saying Garrett Wilson is the best wide receiver in NFL history, but he has bad quarterbacks so he can't put up stats. It's like, well, ye. But that's part of it. You have to put up the stats. You have to in order to be an all time great. And Chris Osgood saved like two goals above expected his whole career. Conor Hellebuyz saved 170. And like one of the debates we had was just cap ERA and active goalies. Bobrovsky and Vasilevsky, I think, have legitimate arguments to be above Conor Hellebuk. They both have two cups. Bobrovsky's got two Vezinas. To me, the difference when you look at those is Conor Hellebuk is elite. Every single year, his whole life, he's never not been elite. Whereas Vasilevsky and Bobrovsky, as great as their ceilings are, they're not elite every year. They have down years, they have valleys in their, in their statistics. And Conor Hellebuk from a statistical perspective is basically flawless.
- [41:27]
Mark Lazarus
Look, I'm the guy who wrote a column like a week into the Olympics saying, you know, can a gold medal change the narrative on Conor Hellebuk? Right? And I'm still not sure I believe even that because he did it. And I still can't get over the fact that he's been horrible in the playoffs. Like, he's not just been like, you know, this isn't like a Dan Marino situation where he just never got the chance to win. He has been a problem over the last three playoffs. He is dead last among 42 goalies in goal saved above expected and gold saved above average. You look at like Billy Smith and Grant Fiore, their save percentages go up significantly in the playoffs compared to the regular season. Conor Hellebuyck drops from, I think it's like a 917 to a 903. And a 903 in 2025 is like an 875 in the 1980s. So, I mean, it's not just a small thing. It's not just a minor blip in his career. It's a huge problem. And I'm a big hella buck guy, you know, he's been in my heart trophy ballot multiple times. He is the best regular season goalie of the modern era, without question in my mind. But he's not just not getting it done in the playoffs. He is the cause of a lot of the problems in the playoffs. And I have a tough time putting him ahead of guys like Fiore and Smith who elevated their teams in the playoffs because of that. See, I went, I went there. Nobody has. Nobody has. I mean, I'm just dead right.
- [42:45]
Jesse Granger
It's, it's certainly fair. It's. I think that Connor Hellebuk also, it has a little bit of Hashik in him in terms of early in the career when he was carrying those Buffalo teams to the playoffs and then they wouldn't, couldn't win in the playoffs. Now Hasik would put up a940 in the playoffs and they'd still lose because they're the Sabres. Hellebock's not doing that. So it's not quite the same. But I will say that I think Hellebuyck, especially after watching how good he was in the Olympics, I think the jets aren't nearly as good as we think they are. And we think of them as like the President's Trophy winners. And even like the year seven years ago when they went to the conference final, I just think my, my opinion of the Winnipeg jets as a team has, has plummeted. I think Connor Hellebuck is absolutely carrying that team to the playoffs. He's the only reason they're even in the playoffs every year. And we, because Hellebock's so good and so consistent during the regular season, we think the jets are good. Then when they're bad in the playoffs, it's like Hellebug gets all the blame. What if he's just tired from carrying this bad team every year to the playoffs? I genuinely think that's part of it.
- [43:48]
Sean McIndo
But, but Jesse, the only way we could ever know that would be like if there was a season where Hellebuck, like, missed a chunk of injury and then we could see what happened in the Jets. Oh, right, that's happened this year. And they're in the running for dead last. I guess my, my question is, and to go back to what, what Laz was saying where you said that Hallebuck is the Best regular season goalie of his era or of this era, or whatever it was. If a guy is great in the regular season, repeatedly, and in this case of Connor Halibut, you're talking a guy playing 60, 65 plus games regular season after regular season, but then he's bad in the playoffs for five games, is that Giant sample size versus little tiny sample size where just weird stuff can happen, or do we really view it as the playoffs is just a different type of game and if you're truly great, you will be great in the playoffs? Or is there a third option where it's like, hey man, maybe this is just narratives, maybe we're just, you know, picking and choosing, but this is the business we're in and you can't be truly great if you don't have that narrative to back you up. And so the fact that this guy is bad for two weeks most seasons after being amazing for six months, somehow the two weeks outweighs the six months.
- [45:04]
Mark Lazarus
I don't, I don't need him to be great in the playoffs. I need him to be at least good in the playoffs. Right? I mean, he's been flat out bad in the playoffs.
- [45:10]
Sean McIndo
And I feel like his first three years he was, he was a very good playoff goaltender. And then.
- [45:14]
Mark Lazarus
Yeah, all right, yeah. But, you know, as he, as he hit the peak of his career when he was his most dominant during the season, that's when he had his biggest playoff. And again, I feel like I'm talking against myself here because I'm actually a big helibut guy. I like, I think he is in this conversation. But when you're trying to parse the difference between some of these guys, especially across eras, like playing goalie in the 1980s, standing up with your little skinny pads, flailing around like an idiot, as opposed to now where these Giant guys, they're all six six and they have heavily padded and they're playing these perfect, you know, technical styles. It's impossible to compare. All you can do is find the differences. And it almost always comes in the playoffs. Like these other guys got better in the playoffs. They played 60, 65 games a day. Billy Smith wasn't playing a 42 game schedule. Right. So they elevated their play in the playoffs. How come Conor Hellebuyck hasn't been able to do that?
- [46:05]
Jesse Granger
And that's. It's a fair criticism. That's the thing is like, I can, I can explain it, whatever, but at the end of the day, that is a fair criticism. And it's why he's to me, the top four, Hashik, Brodeur, WA and Dryden are clearly like, there's a gap between them and Hellebuyck. I don't even think Hellebuk's knocking on the door unless he wins a Cup. If Connor Hellebuck drags the Winnipeg jets to a Stanley cup now, the conversation is, okay, is he on that Mount Rushmore of the greatest goalies of all
- [46:32]
Mark Lazarus
time, but even a conference final or a Stanley cup final, just get him somewhere.
- [46:36]
Jesse Granger
Well, he did that already.
- [46:37]
Sean McIndo
2017, he's been to a conference final. It's interesting because we're starting to thread the needle a little bit in terms of the modern goalies. And look, I, I grew up watching 80s and 90s hockey as it's the favorite, my favorite version of the NHL. But when I was growing up, there were 21 teams in the NHL and about half of them had no chance of ever winning anything. So, you know, if you were one of the 10 or 12 teams that had a chance, yeah, you would expect over your 15 plus year career, you should win a cup or two. In the modern, in the cap era, it's sort of been the story of the, the elite goaltender who never wins the cup, right? Luongo Lundqvist, Carrie Price, those guys never did win the big one. Now, what do they have in common? A couple things. First of all, they all won gold medals. Connor Helbuk's in that, in that crew now and again, I, I can't get my head around saying this guy isn't good in big pressure situations. He's not good. He can't win the big one. When a guy's won a gold medal. I guess the other thing you'd say is, is all three of those guys went to a final and came close and maybe that's it. But again, like, this starts to feel like we're, we're parsing this a little too fine, aren't we? If we're saying like, all right, eight, six wins in the playoffs isn't enough, you need to get to 10 would be okay. And if you get to 13, then you're in. But like, I don't know, for a guy who's playing 65 games a year at an incredible level of excellence than the two weeks that comes at the end when he might be exhausted because his team stinks in front of him,
- [48:13]
Mark Lazarus
I think we're all in agreement here that Hellebuck is in that hall of Fame. Like he's a Hall of Fame caliber goalie because of his, we're talking about Mount Rushmore. That's we got some reason. We're talking inner circle here.
- [48:24]
Sean McIndo
We got three times you win three
- [48:26]
Mark Lazarus
Vezina trophies and a hard trophy. You are in the hall.
- [48:28]
Sean McIndo
Crazy.
- [48:29]
Mark Lazarus
Yeah, yeah. But we're talking inner circle here. We're talking Babe Ruth, not Bill Mazeroski. We're looking for like the inner circle now.
- [48:36]
Max Boltman
And I think that that ties to Jesse's conversation about the jets and certainly we've talked a lot about narrative here. Like when we talk about Andre Vasilevsky right now. Like Jesse, Connor Helbuk and Andre Vasilevsky have the exact same career save percentage. I know you talked about the consistency element, but I've got his stats in front of me here. He's got one season below 9:15 since he's been like a 40 game starter in the NHL. It was a 900. That's what Conor Hellebuk has this year. Like, I don't think that they're drastically different. I think we just talk about them differently because the expectations for the Tampa Bay Lightning are so high for sure.
- [49:09]
Jesse Granger
I think Vasilevsky has a little bit of like we, we talked about Grant Fear in this piece and I Grant Fear is a great goalie. But when in like, kind of like Laz was just saying, once you start comparing him to the all time greats, I have a hard time comparing him because I think he was. He played behind a great team and I think Vasilevsky gets some discount on his. But why? Because of that. Also because, because I'm not saying he doesn't deserve the cups, but I'm saying they. There's a small percentage of those cups that are not going to be like he didn't carry them to those cups. He was.
- [49:44]
Mark Lazarus
Well, that's not Ken Dry conversation. Ken Dryden was buying the greatest team of all time year after year after year.
- [49:50]
Jesse Granger
But if Andre Vasilevsky won the Cup 90% of his seasons, then he'd be Ken Dryden.
- [49:55]
Sean McIndo
Okay, but guys, let me, let me just, let me throw this. Not to beat the dead horse, but let me throw some stats at you, okay? 882 save percentage, goals against average well over 3.374 wins, 12 losses. Is this ringing any bells? This is Andre Vasilevsky's last three years in the playoffs the same time period. We're talking about Connor Hellebuck being a bum. Andre Vasilevsky's been a bum too, in the playoffs on a much, much better team. Now does it make sense to go Andre Vasilevsky is Not a good playoff goal. Well, no, because he's, he won Cups, he's won Khan smites. Like what are we talking about? But I think it proves that even an elite all time goalie, which I think Andre Vasilevsky is three bad years in a row in the playoffs. Three bad years on a resume not crazy for goaltending. You could find this for a lot of these guys.
- [50:47]
Max Boltman
My point is not that Vasilevsky is clearly better than Hellbuyk. My point is I think they're on level. I think these are, we're mirror images of each other which with those two players we keep voting Hellabuk.
- [50:57]
Jesse Granger
Well, we don't.
- [50:57]
Max Boltman
But the, the, the voters keep voting Hellebuck for the Vezina because he's in front of an inferior team where, where Vasilevsky's finishing second, third and he's got all these number two and number three finishes that don't go in his trophy case. But he was right there. Like the difference between the number one and number two goalie in a season is so minute.
- [51:14]
Jesse Granger
I agree with you and I, and I, I will say I'm like a big Vassi fan. Like if we had to pick, if, if, if I had a hockey team and we're playing a game tomorrow and we have to win, I'm still picking Vasilevsky over Hellebuck and maybe that but to me when I, I think Hellebuck's career and because of the trophies again it's like finishing second. But when Connor Hellebuck finishes second in the playoff series, he gets no credit for it. There's a difference.
- [51:40]
Max Boltman
One is picked by voters. We don't vote who wins a playoff series.
- [51:44]
Jesse Granger
Connor Hellebuck doesn't single handedly determine who wins the playoff series either. But it's I again I think Hellebuk has a more impressive resume. When you just list out his career resume I wouldn't definitively say he's a better goalie than Andre Vasilevsky. I think his resume is more impressive. But his, the just purely like you said, when you look at them, to me they're very similar and I think Vasilevsky is arguably like, like when Vasilevsky's a game is better than Hellebox A game.
- [52:13]
Max Boltman
Yeah, to me they're, they're, they're mirror images. The two best goalies of the era. Shusterkin has a chance to get in there on. I don't think he's going to have the six Bobrovsky's had. The resume certainly gets in there but it's a great conversation. I mean, there's a lot of names here that we could get to. I just, to me, when there's a mirror image of you in your era, it's hard for me to put you like clearly in that, you know, top four, top five of all time.
- [52:37]
Jesse Granger
It's certainly fair. It's certainly fair. And, and Bobrovsky is probably more of what I was talking about in terms of the inconsistency. Like he's had disaster seasons, like where the statistics are just horrific for six months. Whereas Connor Hellebuk, that's never happened to him in his entire life. Like he's never had more than two weeks of bad hockey. It just.
- [52:56]
Mark Lazarus
Darn it.
- [52:57]
Jesse Granger
Why does it always have to be at the time when everyone is watching?
- [53:01]
Max Boltman
In fairness, we've never debated whether Conor Hellebuk has the worst contract in the NHL. That was a multi year conversation with Sergei Bobrovsky. All right. It's a great article. Everyone should check it out. After Olympic gold, where does Connor Helbuk rank among history's best goalies? That's on the Athletic. That's gonna do it for us. Thanks for listening to this episode of the Athletic Hockey Show. It's the Sean's and Frankie back with you on Wednesday. We'll talk to you soon.
- [53:30]
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- [54:03]
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- [54:34]
1Password Advertiser
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