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- [00:00]
Max Boltman
AI had the time of my life a I never felt this way before.
- [00:10]
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- [00:22]
Chris Johnson
And I owe it all to you.
- [00:25]
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- [02:22]
Mark Lazarus
Foreign. This is the Athletic Hockey Show.
- [02:49]
Max Boltman
Hey everybody, Max Boltman here alongside Mark Lazarus for another episode of the Athletic Hockey Show. Fun show on tap. Today we're going to have Arpin Basu join us in a little bit to talk about the Atlantic Division, which is shaping up to be one heck of a race to the finish line. But first, I want to go Laz, you were able to talk with Chris Johnson earlier and he's over in Milan right now for the Olympic ice kind of reveal. The first, the first test. As they go through this, there's a tournament going there and CJ's on site watching this. And it's certainly a big talking point right now around the NHL of exactly what shape this arena is going to be in the ice particularly. So I'm curious to hear what C.J. saw when he was over there.
- [03:28]
Mark Lazarus
Yeah, I mean, obviously if you don't have ice, you don't have a tournament and the NHL players want to play and they will play on almost any condition possible. It sounds like the ice is going to be okay and everything else is going to be an unmitigated disaster.
- [03:39]
Max Boltman
All right, well, let's go to that right here. This is Laz and Chris Johnson.
- [03:43]
Mark Lazarus
All right, cj, I want to start with a line in your most recent piece in the Athletic where it was a quote from IHF president Luke Tardif. He said yesterday, the third game at the end the, the puck was still sliding. So that's a good test. Is that how low the bar has gotten here that we're basically talking about like an air hockey table out of.
- [04:00]
Chris Johnson
Dave and Busters Buno Mark. That is true. That is where we're at with this, this tournament. And you know, I do think they, you know, Luke Tardif, he can credibly claim some progress made over this test event because they did play seven games in a 51 hour window this weekend at the arena. And you know, I think they demonstrated that hockey can be played on that ice in that building, which was a question. And really there's still a ton of work to get done and I'm sure we'll get into some of that to come here. But you know, the reason they're celebrating the ice is that that was the one thing that truly could have derailed this entire project at this point in time. You know, I think that it's, it's been clear to the NHL and the NHLPA for a little while that this is not going to be perfect. They might get the building done, but they're definitely not going to finish it, if you know what I mean, if you understand the differentiation there. But you know, as long as there's ice and there's seating in the main bowl, which there are, you know, they're going to be able to have an Olympic tournament. And so, yeah, I think it was a positive step forward that they played that many games and the ice did seem to get better as it was used a little more. But my goodness, it was truly stunning and I mean this with no exaggeration to walk into that arena for the first time and see where it's at less than four weeks from the start of the Games.
- [05:24]
Mark Lazarus
All right, I want to get into all that construction stuff and what's still left alone.
- [05:27]
Arpin Basu
But.
- [05:27]
Mark Lazarus
But the ice is the most important thing. If there's ice, the players will play on it. Like, they're not going to not play in the Olympics because they have to get dressed in a trailer outside of the building. They did that in Arizona for a couple of years. It's not that big a deal. You kind of set the hockey world on fire when you tweeted there was a giant hole in the ice and in the first game and play had to kind of stop for a little while. Take us through that. How big was this hole? And, you know, the NHL does this all the time, where they create ice rinks out of nowhere for the Winter Classic and the Stadium Series games. How different is it, having to play so many games on the ice as opposed to just having to play one?
- [06:00]
Chris Johnson
Well, here's the thing. I don't even know how many games I've been to, but it's in the thousands of games I've been to between NHL playoff games, Stanley Cup Final games, I covered 10 world hockey championships. I've been to multiple Olympics in the past. I'd never seen a hole quite like that in the ice, which is why I characterize it as I did. You know, I'll tell you openly that the organizers disputed my characterization of it as a giant hole. They were trying to say, you know, that there was a hole and it was a small hole, and, you know, it was a tweet in real time as well. Be fair, it was a subjective judgment that I made while watching. It was not an attempt to be sensational or to over dramatize it. I. I actually have a photo that's going to appear in a story that. That isn't up at this moment, but will be up shortly. You know, you could see a giant soft spot, I'd say, the size of like a big stake on the ice in that exact area right before that game started. It was, you know, a little bit into the first period. The, you know, the game was delayed. Know, a few workers ran out. One of them had a big green watering can and was applying water out of the watering can to that exact spot on the ice. You know, I didn't get up. I could. I wasn't on the ice myself. And. And at least one of the players said it wasn't that giant of a hole, but it. It was a hole in the ice. I mean, anyway, you want to slice it here. And you know, it turns out that, that, you know, the ice maker here, Don Moffett, you know, said that that is actually not an unusual occurrence because literally that game was the first time anyone was skating on the ice. I mean, and so that might be the one thing that I've ever, for all the hockey games I mentioned to you I've been to. I might never been in an arena where it was literally the first time someone was skating on newly made ice. Because obviously there's usually more of a process of play here. I mean, the reason that was happening this late in the game is because they've been so far behind in construction, it didn't allow the ice to even start being made here till December 20. There's a process that, that's involved with that. So it, it was significant enough they had to stop the game. The good news is, is they played six more games and two more periods after that point and there wasn't another stoppage, at least nothing as apparent as that that was made after that fact. So, you know, apparently this is part of what should be expected. But it, you know, again, it, it was alarming in conjunction with the fact that that happened within two hours of the first time I'd ever stepped foot on the property. You know, I toured, you know, the secondary areas of the arena, that. Which are still very much under construction even at this moment or not even started yet. And so you couple it all together and that's how I arrived at that, that tweet.
- [08:41]
Mark Lazarus
Well, anyone who's ever skated knows that even a small rut in the ice can, can do some damage to someone skating. And these guys are, you know, the NHL guys going over there are multimillion dollar assets to a billion dollar corporation. So I really, I agree with any hold is a significant one on the ice. But it's good to hear that at least it's been getting better. What about the rest of the rink here? What, like, just how barren is this facility beyond the ice?
- [09:06]
Chris Johnson
It's almost so long. Like I'm going to leave something out because there are so many issues like, like if you were someone who specializes in, you know, project management, say, like if you just walked onto the site, like, I don't even know where you would start to prioritize what needs to be finished between now and the start of the first women's game, which is scheduled 24 days from now on February 5, because the list is extensive. You know, the quick last note on the ice is. I did speak to a player. I was watching one of the games out. Granted it is the Italian second division, but these are still pro or semi pro players. I mean it's, it's not like a beer league. And this player in a three on three overtime literally just like fell. And I asked him about it afterwards and he said, yeah, like the ice didn't hold for him. So I mean, you know, it's, it's a work in progress, the ice. And certainly in the early, those first couple games especially, it was soft and you could see some issues. You know, as for the rest of the building, I'd say that the things that, that jumped out to me is like there, there's no concession stands in this arena. They literally, there's, there's one that says sandwich bar and one that says burger bar. Like they put that on the wall and there was like a cutout for it, but they just dry over it. And then they drove food trucks in front of the building and they just let fans come and go. Like that's how people could get food or beer or what have you. I realized, look, most people that are listening to this probably aren't coming over to the Olympics. It's not going to affect every fan's experience. But you know, in terms of just the hospitality on site, it was extremely barren. You know, to, to kind of fill you in. There's the main game rink, where obviously this is the main arena that will house the games. There's 24 men's games scheduled here, eight women's games over that two and a half week. There's supposed to be dressing rooms and a practice rink in a building beside the main arena. It's meant to have 14 dressing rooms and that would sort of be. Each team gets one dedicated room and that's where they are permanently and effectively what they do is they can be over there and that's where they can practice and be really close to their room. And then when they play a game, players do walk under a canopy between buildings, similar to what was at Mullet arena where the Coyote used to play. And you know, effectively they play it in the game rink and they just use small rooms that are there at the intermission. But it's not really like the team's dressing room, if that makes sense. So those rooms were finished like in the game rink, those rooms, and they are quite barren. They're small, but they're really only meant to be temporary rooms while you're playing. The permanent dressing rooms. Only three of the 14 that are needed were even started at this point. The rest is not even like drywalled in at all. And so they still have to finish really 14 dress rooms, we have to start 11 of them. So I think that's sign like obviously the teams need a place to put their gear to, to have stalls to, you know, they, each team personalizes it. We'll put up Canadian flags or US flags or Swiss flags, what have you. So that that needs to be done. The practice rank is not usable at this point in time. The ice, it only just started to be made over there and the lines painted on it as a Friday. There was actually a chord I could see sticking up through the ice. Like they still. That needs some work. And that's a really important thing here because there's so many games played in the main rink. If, and it seems like they're going to get that done, but if they didn't, teams would have nowhere to practice basically during the Olympics. So it's vital that they finish that. Inside the arena, the hospital, there was no hospitality suites that were evident at all. They were all basically plastered over with black bags and they literally had security guards at each one. They really didn't want anyone to look behind there. So I didn't get a chance to see what was behind there. But you could tell not much was done. The media tribune was not remotely finished. There was no permanent safety bars in the second, you know, deck of the arena. Essentially no one was allowed to go up there. So there's a lot. Even the scoreboard, honestly mark it, it's, you know, I grew up in a town of 15, 000 at the time. It was like as small as the scoreboard in my arena in my home rank in Coburg, you know, and one of the players even mentioned that he was out. He was, you know, he was playing in a game. These were actual games, like these were cup games in Italy. Like they mattered. If you watched like the players were, were into it. He was out protecting a lead in the final minute and he said the scoreboard was so high he couldn't see how much time was left. And it was so small. And so, you know, they're supposed to have a new scoreboard in here in three weeks time that's much bigger. But if they don't, you know, I'm not making light of it but I mean like you could be in a gold medal game, a 2:1 game and, and a team can't even see how much time is left easily. So that probably needs to be addressed too. So. And I'm sure I've left out a whole bunch of stuff here.
- [14:00]
Mark Lazarus
It's crazy to think, I mean, as important as this tournament was just to get some games on this ice, they needed those three days to build stuff like that. There's still so much to do. Those are three precious, precious days of construction that they lost on the sula. You and I were both in Sochi, and I remember being like in the air on the way to Sochi and everyone's freaking out. The hotels aren't ready, the rooms aren't ready. People are landing. They don't have shower curtains, they don't have windows, they don't have, you know, running water in their rooms. But people don't realize, like, everyone made fun of me. I remember hashtag Sochi problems was a thing for a while.
- [14:30]
Chris Johnson
Right.
- [14:31]
Mark Lazarus
But people don't remember. The rink was gorgeous. Like both the rinks that they were right next to each other, they were easily accessible. The Bolshoi Ice Dome was a palace. It was a beautiful rink. It had been done years in advance. A year earlier, they had had a test tournament on it. Like, just how unprecedented. I feel like we always think the Olympics are thrown together at the last minute and there's always hiccups like this. But this really feels unprecedented in the scale of an actual facility that's going to get the host one of the marquee events of the tournament.
- [15:00]
Chris Johnson
Yeah, I mean, I think the only precedent predates my time really as a full time hockey reporter was the Turin Games in 2006, which of course just happened to be here in Italy. But at that time, I actually spoke for a story last month to the gentleman that was in charge of basically coordinating those Games. They actually moved them in two or three years out from Finland because they needed some new expertise on the ground. And basically they recognized it was not going in a good place. And he told me that they were within inches of disaster there, that, that like it went until the final minutes. They're, you know, getting the rink ready. And, and it feels, at least to me right now, that's, that's what you're going to see here. I'm not, I'm not predicting disaster. I do, I do think that there will be some parts of this arena that do not live up to what you would expect for the standard of Olympic competition. And, and you know, we know in the hockey world how big this, this, this event is both on the men's and women's side. I mean, from the men's side of it. It's 12 years since we've had NHL players here. The stakes are huge, the storylines are huge. I think they're going to find a way to pull it off, but it's going to be a little shoestring in. In places. You're right. I mean, Chad, there's always challenges with venues or logistics or infrastructure with the Olympics. These are huge undertakings, and, you know, you're going to places where they haven't held them in a long time, at least up here in this part of Italy. But, you know, it's really not ideal. And I'll say this, there were some pretty key decision makers here this weekend. You know, from the ioc, from the local organizing committee. I mean, senior people did acknowledge in interviews on Sunday that this is not ideal. That, like, they didn't at least hide from the fact that this. This has been a challenge and nothing has come easy for them and that they started this arena too late. Like, you know, the beginning where this started, honestly, is the shovels went in the ground too late just to begin, and then obviously, they haven't been able to make up and get ahead of it or. Or somehow speed up the process. So this has sort of been doomed for a couple years. And now we're down to this, the final scramble. And I do think they're going to pull it off, but, you know, it's going to be challenging. I mean, NHL players are used to a certain standard. I mean, this. This will not be what they're accustomed to. I mean, hopefully the ice gets there and, you know, most people are going to experience this through their TVs, so as long as. As long as the games themselves are great, you know, most of this. This talk will fade to the background once the tournament gets going.
- [17:27]
Mark Lazarus
All right, well, one last thing before I let you go, and I agree with you. I think there's almost no way this doesn't happen. These players will play at a mall somewhere if they have to, just to get. They get this tournament. And ultimately the decision does fall on the players. That's been made clear is, like, the only way this doesn't happen is if the players say we won't play. What has to happen for that to happen? Like, how bad would things have to be? What. Give me an example of maybe of what would have to happen for the players to say, you know what? Even we won't play on this.
- [17:52]
Chris Johnson
I think it's all the ice at this stage. You know, I think that they can navigate their way around not having. They're not going to have their normal creature comforts. Like, I toured through the back dressing rooms there. The showers have like four. Like, it's just, it's nothing close to what NHL facilities look like. And I think, I think players knew that a long time ago that this is, you know, they're not building NHL style buildings here. There's no, there's no need in this part of Italy to have like a nice fancy facility like the one you have in Chicago or Toronto or Edmonton or anywhere else that we play NHL games. So. But, so I think the only thing that could really derail this is if the ice was not safe enough. And you know, the fact that they played professional games here over the weekend, like, the games were fine. There's maybe a little bit too much snow at parts and, and you know, they think that that's a temperature issue, that they can adjust. Basically. They learned that in effect by having these games that the, the ice has settled down, that they've been able to, you know, put more layers on it between games. You know, I, I just feel like that, you know, Don Moffat, he works for the Colorado Avalanche, so he's made NHL ice previously in his life. This is his fifth Olympics where he's been part of the ice crew. In this case, he's leading it. Was hired by the organizing committee. They also have NHL staff that have been observing. You know, I just, I think they're going to be able to get it to a point where the ice is okay. And so to me, that's the only thing that could doom this entirely. But I mean, hopefully I'm not jinxing anything because obviously I, I, as much as anyone, want to see this tournament. I've been banging my head against the wall trying, trying to get the NHLs back to the Olympics, basically, since it was decided they weren't going in. You know, we're entering a period where this could be pretty cool because, you know, the World Cups, you know, we all saw four nations. Then you have the Olympics here. The World cup is going to happen in 2028. I would expect the NHLs are back in the Olympics in 2030 in the French Alps. And then Salt Lake City, Utah has it in 2034. There's rumors Switzerland's going to get the Olympics in 2038, which is a pretty good hockey country. I mean, I think you could, this could be the start of an era of 12 to 20 years maybe where international hockey even goes to a level it's never been at before. So, you know, I think it's critical that they, they play the games and I think they're going to find a way.
- [20:07]
Mark Lazarus
Agreed. All right, C.J. thanks for all the firsthand information. Everybody should go read all of CJ stories about the athletic. Safe travels. And I hope you get one last big pasta meal before you come home.
- [20:16]
Chris Johnson
That is the one guarantee I'll make is that I'm going to eat to eat well tonight before flying home tomorrow.
- [20:22]
Max Boltman
All right. So from that, my takeaway is pretty much the talk about the ices is all in service of preparing us, the viewer, for the fact that this might not be what we're used to seeing. I don't. It doesn't sound like it's scaring off any players.
- [20:34]
Arpin Basu
Last.
- [20:35]
Mark Lazarus
No. If anything, it's going to scare off, you know, fans and journalists who are going to be there. I'm. I'm heading over there and I'm very curious to see what my accommodations will be. Not that anybody cares about what the Press Tribune looks like, but it's. This is the Olympics, man. More often than not, this is unless it's in like an established city with like, like Vancouver had a hockey rink already, right? Unless it's like that, it tends to be kind of flying by the seat of their pants. A lot of things are done at the very last minute. In Sochi, it was the hotels for almost everybody, including the players in Milan. It's going to be the hockey rink. It's just not going to be done. There's no way it's going to be completed. I just hope that all the, you know, C.J. told me before the show to dress to pack extra warm because it's the coldest rink he's ever been to. And I think that's probably because there's a giant hole in this side of the building, right? Like, I hope they at least patch up that hole and they have a fully functioning, you know, room temperature building for fans to enjoy these games. It's going to be 11,000 people instead of 14,000 people. There's going to be food trucks outside instead of concession stands. It's going to be a mess. And we all have to go into there knowing it's going to be a mess and that the, hopefully the hockey is so good that none of us will mind.
- [21:40]
Max Boltman
Well, that's the key. I don't think anyone needs Sofi stadium, right? Or the, the palaces in Seattle and Vegas and Detroit right now. I don't think anyone needs it to be that. But the hockey then has to really deliver. You can't have a second rate building and venue and also not have the best on best hockey live up to best on best hockey.
- [21:58]
Mark Lazarus
I think it'll actually be kind of endearing in some ways. Like the players are going to be walking from trailers under like across the street under like a like a tent canopy to get from their quote unquote locker rooms, which are basically just holes in the wall to the rink. There's going to be something kind of endearing about that to fans watching from home that they've like, the players were totally cool with this because like they weren't really all that cool within a mullet arena to playing the Coyotes is one thing, playing the Olympics is quite another. And I think it's going to actually have almost like a weird quirky charm to it after a while.
- [22:30]
Max Boltman
Kind of like the winner the original Winter Classics where it's like, oh, look at this, there's this pomp and circumstance. Yeah, Winter Classic probably would have quite, quite a bit better accommodations from the track record.
- [22:39]
Mark Lazarus
You know, Winter Classic, they do the ice with only a couple of weeks notice. Also, the difference is they're not playing three games a day on it for three straight weeks. That's going to be the real, the real test here.
- [22:48]
Max Boltman
Yeah, no doubt. All right, let's take a quick break right there. I'll be right back with Arpin Basu. Now that the holidays are over, you might be feeling like you've got a big spending hangover. The drinks, the holiday food, the gifts, it all adds up. Luckily, Mint Mobile is here to help you cut back on overspending on wireless this January. With 50% off unlimited premium wireless cut out Big wireless's bloated plans and unnecessary monthly charges with 50% off. 3, 6 or 12 months of unlimited. Use your own phone with any Mint Mobile plan and bring your phone number along with all your existing contacts. I use this and you should too. Mint Mobile's wireless service is solid. Probably better than my old provider provider. Plus, I'm saving money with Mint Mobile this January. Quit overspending on Wireless with 50% off unlimited premium wireless plans start at $15 a month at mintmobile.com NHLShow that's mintmobile.com NHLShow this is a limited time offer. Upfront payment of $45 for three months, $90 for six months or $180 for 12 months. Plan required $15 a month equivalent taxes and fees. Extra initial plan term only greater than 50 gigabytes. May slow when network is busy. Capable device required availability, speed and coverage varies see mintmobile.com.
- [24:21]
Mark Lazarus
Shell V Power trusted, used and recommended.
- [24:24]
Max Boltman
By Scuderia for rehp.
- [24:26]
Arpin Basu
Did you know that the Shell V Power used in my FM1 car is.
- [24:30]
Chris Johnson
Very similar to the Shelby Power you.
- [24:31]
Mark Lazarus
And I can buy at pump?
- [24:35]
Commercial Announcer
Oh, could this vintage store be any cuter? Right.
- [24:38]
Chris Johnson
And the best part, they accept Discover.
- [24:40]
Arpin Basu
Except Discover in a little place like this?
- [24:43]
Mark Lazarus
I don't think so, Jennifer.
- [24:45]
Arpin Basu
Oh, yeah, huh?
- [24:46]
Chris Johnson
Discover's accepted where I like to shop.
- [24:48]
Arpin Basu
Come on, baby, get with the times.
- [24:50]
Commercial Announcer
Right.
- [24:51]
Arpin Basu
So we shouldn't get the parachute pants.
- [24:54]
Chris Johnson
These are making a comeback, I think. Discover is accepted at 99% of places.
- [25:00]
Max Boltman
That take credit cards nationwide. Based on the February 2025 Nielsen report. All right, we're back. And we are joined now by Arpin Basu in Montreal. Covers the Canadians for us. And Arpin, today we're going to spend some time on the Atlantic because I think it's the most interesting division in hockey. The Central is obviously loaded. Three powerhouse teams, three at least of the five best teams in the NHL, I think are in the Central. But the intrigue is the Atlantic. I mean, it's not just how tight everything is there. It's how they're playing right now. The Red Wings are atop that division after a win in Montreal the other night. They're 72 and 1 in the Atlantic Division. That's just kind of par. Tampa's not when nine of their last 10. So as Buffalo, the Leafs have won seven of their last 10 and took two more to overtime. Watching this division right now, I think we just kind of wanted to have you on to dive into what this race is like.
- [25:52]
Arpin Basu
Well, yeah, it's funny talking to the players, especially heading into that game Saturday night against Detroit. The Canadians, players, I should say, you know, it's like it's, you know, no one's gaining ground like Buffalo goes on a 10 game win streak and still weren't in a playoff spot at that point. You know, they eventually got into one, but it just shows, you know, everyone talks about the parody and, and how close everything is, but the fact that everything's so close means there's a lot of teams and there's a lot of teams in that bunch. And to leapfrog teams is really difficult. Not only with how much teams are winning in the Atlantic, but just generally speaking, how many games are going to overtime this season. It's really, really hard to make ground. So I mean, you know, you look at Ottawa at the bottom of the division like I don't think they're done. You Know, like, I mean, they're like this top to bottom is just. There's going to be some really good teams that don't make the playoffs out of the Atlantic Division. Well, really good. Might be a stretch, but. But good, good teams. Playoff, legitimate playoff teams that aren't going to make the playoffs. And it's, you know, Ottawa's a great example. You go into one bad stretch and next thing you know you're last in the division and like four points out of. Of second to last, which is Florida, the back to back Stanley cup champion. So, yeah, it's. It. I agree with you. It is the most interesting division. It's not the best division, although I don't think Tampa gets enough love for, for their contender status this year. But. But it's definitely the most competitive and the most interesting for sure.
- [27:19]
Mark Lazarus
At this point of the season, you've got, you know, we're more than halfway through the season and seven out of these eight teams either entered the season with legitimate playoff hopes or have established that they now have playoff hopes. And, you know, depending on how much you believe in, like Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, two, three, maybe even four of these teams are going to be left out. I mean, it's going to be a fascinating race. And like you said, it is so hard to make up ground that every game, every game that you can win, a regulation in particular, feels massive right now, which isn't something we're used to saying in January.
- [27:49]
Arpin Basu
No. And I think it just, it adds a level of, it adds a level of stress. Like, yes, it's entertaining for the fans, but it's, it's not normal for these players to be walking into a game in mid January, I would even say early January, and be like, wow, this is a huge game. You know, like, we really got to like, it's just not. And so that having that level of, you know, teams try to manufacture that at this time of the year, you know, you're trying to like, manufacture. Urgency is really the term that coaches love to use because it's just you're kind of in the doldrums of the season and you're sort of in the midpoint. The trade deadline's still kind of far away, although it's not that far away in terms of how many games teams have left until the trade deadline. But this urgency doesn't have to be manufactured anymore just because of this parody. Like, these are legitimately. And we know that at the end of the season, like a point lost in a shootout here or, you know, failing to reach overtime in a game that you led in the last minute there. Like these little moments, I think players and coaches are acutely aware that these, these single points or two points that you kind of throw away in what used to be a nothing game in the middle of January could come back to bite you. And I think that's. That really kind of paints everything these teams are doing right now because you don't want to have that regret of like, oh man, remember when we blew that two goal lead in the third period on January 16th against Boston? And now they're one point in and we're out and we shouldn't have done that kind of thing. So the urgency is there very early, which makes for pretty compelling hockey because you don't see teams just coasting through these games right now.
- [29:30]
Mark Lazarus
Now you guys are both in this, you're both in the Atlantic Division regularly. I'm in the Central, I don't see it as much. So I'm looking at it from afar. When we talk about the parody, I'm seeing a lot of mediocrity. You can go through every one of these teams except for Tampa Bay and I could find a major flaw with them right now. I was doing it in the hour before we were coming on to record and I was like, wow, I don't believe in any of these teams really, except for Tempe. Tampa Bay is on another level. They are, you know, they feel just in, just to be able to sustain staying in this, like not to have like a six game losing streak that's going to knock them out of a race close because they feel the most sustainable. They give up the fewest scoring chances per 60. They're top 10 in creating scoring chances. You've got the goal. And we don't ever talk about Nikita Kuchero because we're talking about McKinnon and McDavid and Bedard and Celebrini and all these guys. Kucherov is unbelievable, especially lately. He's got what in seven games since Christmas he's got nine goals and 11 assists. Who does that? He's got 23 multi point games. A third of his last 21 games have been three points or more. So this feels like that's a team, that's a, that's a Stanley cup contender. Team Detroit, right now I don't see a Stanley cup contender. Montreal, I don't see a Stanley cup contender. Florida right now I barely see as a Stanley cup contender. And that's based on history. It seems like it's Tampa Bay and A bunch of mediocre teams. Am I way off?
- [30:41]
Max Boltman
Isn't that the league, though, right now? I mean, I don't. I would argue that there's maybe four teams that scary across the whole league, and it's Colorado's one of them. Maybe Minnesota's elevated into one of them. I actually haven't been that impressed by Dallas this year, but they are kind of always there, and their roster is there. Maybe Washington's there. But I think what explains it in the Atlantic is for. For a long time, this was the most stratified division in hockey. You had bonafide contenders, Tampa, Florida, Toronto, Boston. And you had, like, true dedicated rebuilders that, like, sure, they'd like to win, but it was not the priority issue. What you have right now is you have all of those teams, all of those rebuilders trying to come out of it. Two of them, Montreal and Ottawa, made the playoffs last year. Two more of them, Detroit and Buffalo, have the longest playoff droughts in, like, NHL history. And then the others are, like, kind of at a pivot point. And Toronto loses Mitch Marner. And they're trying to see what they are at this point. Boston lost everyone and is trying to figure out what they are at this point. I say everyone. They lost Martian. They lost Bergeron. That felt like everyone. You know, Florida's so banged up. And then there's Tampa, who I think is still. We know what they are, but it's just kind of. I guess that's. That's part of the curiosity for me is like, is this the middle ground? And it's the transition, and we're going to see the Detroit's, the Montreals, the Buffaloes, the Ottawa's, flip it, or. I don't see a reason Tampa can't hang on to this. I don't see a reason once Florida's healthy that they're going to completely vanish here. And I think that's what makes it compelling.
- [32:03]
Arpin Basu
Well, I think, you know, you look at the Central and the way I would define the Atlantic is you have, like, half the division has a window that's closing, and half the division has a window that's opening. And it's basically the teams that have their windows opening, you know, last. Like, your assessment's not wrong, but it has to be taken in the context of where they're coming from. You know, like, I mean, yes. Is Montreal. Mediocre team? Probably. Is Detroit, Yes. Buffalo, yes. But compared to what they've been and the trajectory that they're on, they all seem to be hitting A window at the same time. And I don't even knock Ottawa out of that, but they're in that category. They're, they're having a tough time right now. But these four teams grouped together, you know, I think there is going to be a flip. Like Tampa, yes, they're a wagon right now and, and they're an excellent team, but they can only continue doing this for so long. Like they're aging out. Kucherov is phenomenal still, and still probably has two, three, maybe even four elite years ahead of him, but there's a limit to that. Vasilevsky is getting older. Like, I mean, they have, I mean, yeah, the whole team. And Julian Brisbane does a masterful job and really has done probably the best job of, you know, a cap strap team, keeping a window open. Like, he's done it with like, with glue and scotch tape and I don't know how he's done it, but he does it every year. He manages to fill out a roster that's cap compliant and keeps that team competitive, but it's, it's got a limit to it. And you know, Toronto, we're starting to get, you know, even though they've been really, really good of late, big picture wise, if they don't win soon, they're just not going to win and they're gonna have to start over. Florida's kind of the same thing, although, you know, they've already won two, so if that happens to them, who cares? But they probably have another one run or two in them. But this, this division is in the, in the, in the process of flipping and that's what, you know, what the Atlantic was, is kind of what the Central is now.
- [33:58]
Mark Lazarus
Right?
- [33:58]
Arpin Basu
Like it's, it's, you know, these top teams and then the rest of the team's kind of chasing them. But what's interesting about the Atlantic at least is that, you know, those teams, Montreal, Detroit, Ottawa, and it should have been Buffalo, but because it's been so inept there for so long, they were, they weren't grouped in with them, but they were all in various stages of a rebuild. And the big question was who's going to get out of it first and who's going to be able to challenge the top dogs? And I think that's what we're seeing right now is that that process is, is coming and by next season that could be flipped. You know, like, I mean, you look at Detroit, Montreal, Buffalo in particular, but even Ottawa, like, because, because those teams are, are not only have young players on them, they have young players coming that, that could help this whole process along. So that's what I find so interesting is that for years we've been waiting to see when is like, like cracking into the top three in division was a four team race, you know, for, for forever and now it's, now it's not.
- [34:57]
Mark Lazarus
Arvin, talk me into Montreal because like I look at Jakob dovish being 13, 5 and 3 with an.889 save percentage as kind of just summing this team up. Like I don't really know how they're even in. They seem like they're, I don't know, they're less than the sum of their parts. I look and they should be so dynamic. You got Nick Suzuki's two way game, you got Caulfield and Dimitov, you've got Slavkovski, Hudson and Dobson on the blue line. They, I feel like they should be more dynamic than they are. I feel they should be more competitive than they are. They give up a ton of chances. The PK is middling the bad, the power play is decent. But like how are they even in this race right now when. When nothing seems to be going all that well?
- [35:36]
Arpin Basu
Well, they don't lose in regulation very often, for one. So that's. They have, they have sort of latched on to the theme of this season in general. But the fact that they get to overtime as often as they do is a big reason why they have as many points as they have because they don't win in regulation that often either. In fact, no one except for Ottawa has won in regulation less than the Canadians. But like I used to harp on them for that because that's the first tiebreak to get into the playoffs. I'm starting to come around to the notion that you should probably start looking at regulation losses as being sort of a barometer for how a team is playing. Because as, as you know, as derisive as people can get of, you know, the points you get for overtime losses or shootout losses, calling them loser points and in many ways they are, but that's how you keep track of score in the NHL. That's how you, that's how you do the standings.
- [36:25]
Mark Lazarus
And second, that's the Tortorella method, right? Is just get enough loser points to get as the seventh seed in the playoffs. John Tortorella built a career doing that.
- [36:32]
Arpin Basu
I have an issue with the loser.
- [36:33]
Max Boltman
Point terminology too, because you were already getting a point. It just used to be a tie. Like the extra point, the cheap point is the one that goes to the winning team that couldn't do it in 60 minutes. That's the one people should be ashamed of.
- [36:44]
Arpin Basu
Not the.
- [36:45]
Max Boltman
Not the one for the tie that they were getting anyway.
- [36:48]
Arpin Basu
Yeah, but like, the point is, is that. That because of the format, like, the Canadians are actually quite good at overtime. You know, they're not very good at the shootout, but they're pretty good at overtime. And so they have like, an impetus to get to overtime. Like, they. They like their chances in overtime because of all the players you mentioned last and, and you know, to say that you look at them and they should be more competitive. I mean, they score a lot of goals, which. Based on the goals per game. Yeah, that's it. But it's just that they give up a lot because they're young. They're the youngest team in the league and they have a lot of guys. You know, Dimitov's in his first full season. He's just turned 20 like. Like a month ago. Slavkoski's in his fourth season. He's 21. Like he'll be 22 in. In April or May or something this spring. You know, the. The best is yet to come for these guys. Like, all of this is. Is kind of. Well, Ken Hughes actually flat out said it last week. I mean, he's. They're ahead of schedule. You know, they did not expect to be this competitive, this quick. So that's why everything they do has to be looked at through that lens. Like, where would you reasonably expect a team that was so far in the bottom only, you know, three years ago or even two years ago, and just scratch their way into the playoffs last year? Which in and of its. That. That in and of itself was a bonus that wasn't expected. But they entered the. They. They actually got younger over the offseason. They lost like two of their key veteran pieces that helped them make the playoffs in Dvorak and Armia and replaced them with. Answer, actually, and replaced him with, well, Dobson, which is a huge upgrade, obviously. But like, Dimitov came in companion comes in and he leads league in goals by a rookie and has really completes that line with Slavkovsky and to meet off really well. But they're a young team and you're not supposed to be collecting points at a 622 clip when you're the youngest team in the league. It's just not how it usually works. So I think a lot of what's happening with Montreal is a bit of a bonus, which is what makes them kind of unique in this sense, because you look at Detroit, Ottawa is kind of in a similar boat. Like, like, you know, they kind of have to make this group work. Whereas I think Montreal's group is still sort of evolving a little bit and still has other pieces that are coming that could have a significant impact, including guys on their own team. Like, I, I, I kind of look at 27, 28 as the start of Montreal's contention window. And at that point, Dimitov will be, he will turn 22 that December, and it's like, you know, you're in pretty good shape. Like if, if you're. All of your core is between the age of 22 and 28, and that's kind of what they have going on.
- [39:16]
Mark Lazarus
Yeah.
- [39:16]
Max Boltman
If these are vamp years for them. Right. Like, this is years to learn lessons, it's a good spot to be and it's why, I mean, we did a piece this weekend, Arp, and ahead of the game between the Red Wings and Canadiens about kind of lessons of, of two rebuilds that took pretty different tracks. Like, not always by choice. I'm sure the Red Wings would have preferred to get a first overall pick. You know, I'm sure there's things that could have gone better for them and, But I think Montreal moved really decisively into their rebuild and has had kind of the dream rebuild like the one that other teams around the league, if you're. And granted, there's not really a lot of teams right now that are initiating rebuilds. Maybe there's a couple that are going to get forced into them, but if you can do it the way Montreal did it, and that's to steer into it, like, don't kid yourself. Don't delude yourself. Go, go head on into it and make some moves early. And you know, you're not going to hit on every trade in quite the way that Montreal has, but they're kind of the model for any team that's going to start it.
- [40:10]
Arpin Basu
Yeah, a little bit. And, and I mean, the one thing that they missed is that they, they, they picked first overall in a year where you didn't have like, a transformational superstar available in the draft, you know, like, I love your restaurant. Koski is a very unique player, and I think he was a worthy number one pick. Even though you can make an argument for Logan Cooley that year, you could even make an argument for Lane Hudson, who had 60 seconds. So, but you know that he's not Macklin Celebrini, he's not Connor Bedard. Like, that's, that's really the, the dream rebuild has that as a centerpiece. And so the Kings didn't get that. But despite that, they did a lot of things that did move this thing along. They placed a priority on, on acquiring players that fit with their core age wise. And so like they identified their core as being sort of Suzuki Caulfield. That's basically it actually in terms of, in terms of what they inherited. And they went out and got a Kirby Doc who's in that age bracket. Hasn't really panned out that well. But still that, that was a principle. Alex Newhook is a good complementary player as far as I'm concerned. Fits that age group. And so they kept adding players and not simply going after draft picks and not simply looking to trade players who are not in the NHL yet. Like they, they had a real interest in adding NHL ready players or any players who were already in the NHL who fit with the rest of the core pieces that they already had. And so I think that's where they differentiated themselves a little bit because they were very aggressive in doing that. You know, like the, you got to think like this. This administration's first draft, it's held in their home building. The draft was electric. You know, this, the place was stand sold out, the Bell center was full. And in that draft they announced that they're trading away Alexander Romanov, who was an immensely popular player in Montreal for Kirby Dock. And it was a risk. I think a lot of people saw it for what it was, that it was worthwhile. But trading Romanov, you know, they could use Romanov right now, like that would. That would really help their group right now. So it, it's, it's risks like that that I think a lot of rebuilding teams are kind of averse to. That this team right from the start showed a willingness. Not only willingness, but actually aggressively sought situations like that where they could take a big swing and hopefully hit on it. And it's telling that they didn't hit on that first one. You know, Kirby Dock has not panned out. He's been injury riddled his entire time in Montreal. But I think the actual, the sentiment behind that move is something that more rebuilding teams should probably embrace.
- [42:32]
Mark Lazarus
It's such a copycat league, but I think this is where the copycatting stops. Like, you know, Florida goes out and builds a team really through trades. Right, through trades and free agency. They had a couple, they had a decent base there with some draft picks, but then they went out and they made big trades.
- [42:45]
Arpin Basu
Nobody Alexander does that.
- [42:46]
Mark Lazarus
I mean well, yeah, no, they had. You have to start with something, of course, but. But that's not a team that was built through the draft by any, in any means. So, you know, what Montreal did is a lot harder than doing what Chicago is doing, than doing what Detroit did. When you're a GM and you're building through the draft, you get years and years of job security because nobody expects anything from you. When you take the Montreal way, you are expediting the process of saying, we're going to get there quicker and you're putting a lot more pressure on yourself because you're making hockey play hockey trades that can be immediately assessed. Not like trading Alex to bring it for a number seven pick that, you know, years later still hasn't turned out because Kevin Korchinski is still in the ahl. Like, it's the. For a GM to take the Montreal method or the Florida method, really, he has to really put himself out there. And I don't think most GMs are really willing to do that.
- [43:33]
Arpin Basu
Well, most owners should be, you know, if you go into a rebuild. So, yeah, you have to pitch it to your owner, right? And your owner has to be willing to deal with anywhere between three and 10, well, five to 10 years of, of bad hockey and having trouble selling tickets and filling your building and. And that's a commitment on that owner's part and a willingness to maybe lose money for a few years and not, definitely not get that playoff revenue. And so if I'm an owner, I'm just kind of like, hey, can we speed this along in a responsible way? Like, I don't want you to take shortcuts and wind up doing making like, egregious errors that get you in a situation like Buffalo found itself in because they made some shortcut moves, you know, like signing a posto and free agency. And there's a whole bunch of stuff they did a long time ago that really derailed them or what's happened in Vancouver or whatever. Like, it's. You don't want that. But if I'm an owner, I'm looking at not only Montreal, but, I mean, I think. I think you look at any sort of progressive and aggressive GM and be like, you know, be more like that guy. Like, I want, yes, I'm willing to rebuild. Yes, I'm willing to be patient, but we have to sell something to our fan base. And what Montreal did a very good job with is selling hope, you know, but the hope you didn't have to look four or five years down the road to get it? It was on the roster and you could see it and it was happening. And even when they were losing, they were still competitive. Like you could see them becoming more and more competitive. They were exciting. They were, there was a lot of talent and the more talent that showed up, the, the more appealing they were as a, as a product. You know, I mean the Canadians are never going to not sell out. Yeah, but it's, you need to, you need to give something, you need to give something that, that puts on a show in your building every night.
- [45:14]
Mark Lazarus
Steve Iserman and Kyle Davidson didn't. They had the best job security in the league.
- [45:17]
Max Boltman
Well, the difference between Montreal too and like a Vancouver for example that you talked about, like they, they were aggressive, they, they were just also tanking while they were doing it or bottoming out or whatever you want to put it. Like they didn't try to sell, skip the phase where you're a bottom five team in the league for three or four years. They were just also working on top of that. It wasn't patience for the sake of patience. We got to see what these prospects are before we can make any moves around them. It was, yeah, give us a first round pick. We're going to take Sean Monahan, we're going to flip him for a first round pick. We're going to bring in Mike Matheson. He was a present day player. Like there's no, yeah, there was no like long view view that like oh yeah, he's not there yet but he's going to help. He was. No, he was going to help him right then. It just also now he's going to help them into the future. And so they, they didn't, they didn't pick one or the other. They, they did both. They did a retool and a rebuild and they're, they're being rewarded for it.
- [46:02]
Arpin Basu
Well, I think, I think one thing that, that they did is that they created sort of multiple layers like you just mentioned. But like, you know, like Suzuki, Caulfield, Kaden, Gooley. If you want to throw Doc in there, you could throw Doc in there, you could throw new hook in there. But they represent like a pocket of, of an age group in their. Robson Dobson would be added to that after. Yeah this summer and the other one is, you know, anchored by Hudson Slafkovsky, Demitov, perhaps Michael Hage will join that group or he might actually represent a separate development window. But like those younger guys, like my line is that the Canadians will be in contention when Dimitov, Hudson Slafkovsky are In their prime. But they're in their prime at the same time as Suzuki, Caulfield, Guhe, Dobson are still in their prime. Like they're, they're towards the middle, if not the late phase of their prime. If you can marry primes like groups of players that are in their, at various stages of their prime and marry them together for a window of two to three years, I think you're really in business in terms of how you rebuild a team.
- [47:12]
Max Boltman
And so that's been Dallas.
- [47:14]
Arpin Basu
Yes, that's been Dallas. But Dallas, you have to draft like so phenomenally well to be Dallas. Like it's, it's, it's not reasonable.
- [47:21]
Mark Lazarus
That's what Chicago and Twitter are trying to do. Right? You have your Bedard, Nazar, Kaiser, Vlasic. These guys could be like 27, 28. When Frondell and Cancerov and all these, these next generation all start coming in whoever they pick this year. That's the dream. Right? It's just that Detroit and Chicago took six, seven years to do that. Ideally Montreal condensed that into just a few years. I think that that aggressive style, if you pull it off, fantastic. And I wish more teams would try.
- [47:48]
Arpin Basu
Yeah, I don't know if they pulled it off yet, though. That's true. That remains work to do.
- [47:52]
Max Boltman
Yeah, work to do all around. I'm going to read you the Atlantic Division odds from our friends at BetMGM. The Lightning runaway favorites here at minus 300. They got the three games in hand. They're the best team. They're one point back. I don't think we're getting any disagreement here, but I think it's interesting what the rest of them reveal. Canadians are next at plus a thousand. Red Wings plus 1100. Sabers are tied with the Florida Panthers plus 1500. I did not think I'd be saying that sentence this year. And then it's a huge gap to The Maple Leafs plus 3,500. Senators plus 8,000. And they do not believe in the Bruins one iota. They don't care about 10 to 2 over the Rangers and then a 1o shut out the next day. Bruins plus 15,000. Almost twice as long shot as the Senators.
- [48:34]
Arpin Basu
Is that to win the division in the regular season?
- [48:35]
Max Boltman
Yes, that is to win the division. Yep.
- [48:37]
Mark Lazarus
I want to jump in on Buffalo here because I don't Buffalo either. Either the Buffalo Sabers are nonsense or all advanced stats are nonsense. Because they were a better team when they were in dead last than during their 13 and 1 stretcher. Like significantly so by almost every measurable Metric. It can't all be just. It can't. Well, that's just. It can't all just be pdo, right? I mean, like, it's like, what do you believe? Do you believe the Sabres are the terrible team they were or are they the great team? They are. They're probably somewhere in the middle, but there's no way you can, like, reasonably come to that conclusion based on any measurable aspect of their team.
- [49:12]
Arpin Basu
Well, the one thing I would say to that last is, is that the Canadians, like, for the better part of more than a calendar year now, have been severely outplaying what the underlying numbers would suggest they should do. And so for the longest time, I'm like, this is, this is phony. Like, this is bogus. Like, this is going to, this is going to shatter. This is not going to last. Like, this doesn't work. You don't, you don't. You're not, you're not controlling 45 to 48% of the expected goals over months at a time and, and coming out of that as a winning team. And the Canadians have consistently done that for a long time. And I think one thing that's happening is that, you know, public expected goal models are getting a little messed up by the puck tracking data that's starting to get introduced. And it's, it's. They're not as reflective as they used to be. That's one thing. But another thing is that just the way teams attack, like, I don't think it's the end of the world if, if you lose, you know, if, if you lose the quote unquote possession game and you're getting out shot regularly. Like, I think the way teams attack makes it very difficult to use. It makes it more difficult to use those numbers as a gauge than it used to be. And, and I'm learning that the hard way just because, like, the team I cover has basically flown in the face of those numbers for more than.
- [50:28]
Mark Lazarus
I find myself defaulting to scoring chances and high, high danger scoring chances more than anything I know.
- [50:33]
Arpin Basu
But the way they track those, even.
- [50:34]
Mark Lazarus
That way they track, even that is not reliable. Right? Exactly. It varies team to team, the proprietary team information versus the publicly available data. Like, we don't know. You know, you just, if you're just scraping the, the play by play, there's no way of knowing if that's a high danger chance. It doesn't include the pass that leads up to the shot. It doesn't include the motion of the play. It doesn't include like, like, there's so many things that the public data we have now just doesn't show you that it's getting. You're right. It's getting harder and harder to believe the numbers.
- [51:00]
Arpin Basu
I just think the gap is wide.
- [51:01]
Mark Lazarus
Regressing to the eye test almost.
- [51:03]
Arpin Basu
Yeah, the gap is widening between the, like, between the public data and the proprietary stuff that the teams use. I don't think it's. It's not a wide chasm or anything. Like, it's. Generally, they give you a general idea, but I think it's. It's not as. It's not as close as it used to be. Yeah.
- [51:21]
Max Boltman
And just for context, people have heard us talk about the puck tracking. I don't know if you guys have noticed watching on Jumbotrons during the season, like, shots on goals are fluctuating like crazy during a period.
- [51:31]
Arpin Basu
Oh, Jesse Granger did a great story on that. If people haven't read it. But they'll. They'll. They'll take a shot on goal away two days later.
- [51:39]
Max Boltman
Yeah.
- [51:39]
Arpin Basu
And like, shots on goals. Yeah.
- [51:42]
Max Boltman
You can't have any expected goals if it's not a shot on goal. So it could have been a great shot that the goalie gloved. And if puck tracking 36 hours later determined that it was going to go wide by a centimeter, that 0.4 XG chance vanishes into thin air. So it's a funny time as we all try to, like, sort through all this. And, you know, it's funny, like, I'll tweet, like, the shots at the end of a period and I'll look up at the start of the next period, and it's 3 lower than what it was when I tweeted it 20 minutes earlier.
- [52:07]
Arpin Basu
So the next day you filed your story and you filed this story like, oh, he had a 20 save shutout. That's it. And it's not. It's a 24 save shutout, and you look like an idiot. You know, like, it's. There's nothing you could do about it. But I, I mean, you know, accuracy is better. Like, more accuracy is good, I guess. But. But the reality is, like, this whole world is changing. So, like, so last. So to your point. Yes. Is Buffalo what those numbers say they are? Probably not. And. And I think there's a lot of. I think there's some catching up to do in terms of how we track the performance of these teams and, and what they're actually doing. Like, it's, There's a lot of. There's a lot of Shot quality stuff going on. Like, I mean, I think a lot of teams, you know, other than Carolina and a handful of others, like, there's not that many teams that just fire pucks at the net indiscriminately from all over the ice. And so, you know, the days of gaming Corsi and all that stuff, I think are over. Like, I mean, the quality of the shot is, is more important. And that's, you know, when you have a team like Montreal who, Who does have a lot of dynamic talent, like they, they are often egregiously guilty of overpassing because they're trying to create and it's.
- [53:16]
Mark Lazarus
And, and goaltenders, but they've also got more finishers. So like you said, they're going to outperform their metrics sometimes.
- [53:21]
Arpin Basu
That's it. And, and you know, an expected goal to an expected goal to like Anaheim or, or you know, pick a Columbus is probably not the same as an expected goal to a team like Montreal or even, you know, Connor Bedard. If Connor Bedard choose to puck or someone else shoots the puck, the chances of resulting in is vastly different.
- [53:41]
Mark Lazarus
Yeah, we saw that with Patrick Kane for years. He always, for 15 years outperformed his metrics. Like, you had to, like, there was like a curve you had to apply to him because he was just, he could just score from places other people couldn't. Yeah.
- [53:51]
Max Boltman
Cole Cotton shoots the puck parallel to the goal line, a foot off the goal line down there on the left side, and it's going in the net. And it's probably a 0.01 XG shot, but not for Cole Caulfield.
- [54:00]
Arpin Basu
It's not right. And, and the fact that goaltenders have to, goaltenders know that and have to account for that opens so much up for his line mates because like a goalie cannot go to sleep because Cole Caulfield has the puck on the goal line. Like, you actually have to be extra alert and then all that's impossible to.
- [54:17]
Mark Lazarus
Reflect in the numbers also. That little.
- [54:18]
Arpin Basu
Exactly. So it's always been, you know, all the people who are anti advanced stats have always said, oh, it's just part of the story. And you're just like, yeah, okay, we all know that. Right? But it's an important part of the story and you have to like, you have to, you have to take that part of the. You can't. You don't read a book and leave out an entire chapter. Right. You have to, you have to take it in. But I honestly think like, those people are starting to be more and more. Right. Just because the numbers that we have access to are getting less and less reflective of, of what's actually happening on the ice. And I'm, I'm trying to like retrain my own brain and how I view these things because it's been honestly like a 90 game sample with this team that I cover where everything that I've known or learned on how to evaluate how well a hockey team is playing doesn't necessarily apply to this group. And so that got me wondering, like, do they apply to other groups as well? And so maybe they do. I don't know. But it's. So, yeah, a long answer to the question, but it's no, it's an interesting, you know, like Buffalo, like when I look at Buffalo, it's, it's Buffalo's finally behaving the way they look on paper. Like, they've looked on paper like a team that should be doing this for a long time and for, for a variety of reasons, cultural and, and otherwise and just poor management decisions and lots of things. They haven't been able to do that. But you look at the players, they have, you know, like, to me the, the best example is like Owen Power, like, Owen Power is a hell of a defenseman. He's been ripped to shreds in Buffalo because of how long it's taken him to get, to get to this point because he's the number one pick. He's under a lot of scrutiny. He's a big guy who's not overly physical. So this attracts criticism normally. But like you look at own Powers like a big reason why Buffalo has figured things out, because you need that depth. Like, you can't just have Rasmus Dalin be the only guy on your blue line who's, who's running the show and who's dominating every night. Like, you know, Bone Byron has been great for them, especially after all the drama of him wanting a trade and all this stuff. Like it's, you know, a lot of the, a lot of the peripheral drama is, has been pushed to the side and it just coincidentally happened when Kevin Adams got fired. But I don't think it's actually a causal relationship. Like, I just think this is kind of the natural maturity of this team to some extent. But yeah, I would, I would, I would avoid or I would try to try to take the numbers behind the Buffalo Sabers with a bit of a grain of salt because I think there's just a lot of intangible things happening there that can't be accounted for on a Spreadsheet. Even though just saying that just made me want to wretch. Because I hate that, I hate that term, but it's true.
- [56:57]
Mark Lazarus
So it wasn't a causal relationship with Kevin Adams. Was it a causal relationship with Mark Savard in Toronto? Because how else to explain why all of a sudden they're, they're really good again. They're starting to look like the Maple Leafs that we know. Other than Dennis Hildeby turning into, you know, Jacques Plant here. What are we seeing in Toronto that's working so well?
- [57:16]
Arpin Basu
I mean, the power play is the one thing that, that they, they fired Mark Savard and their power play got as good as it should be. Right.
- [57:23]
Mark Lazarus
It shouldn't happen that fast though, right? It shouldn't.
- [57:25]
Arpin Basu
Well, no, but that's, it's, it's, it really makes me wonder what the hell Mark Savard was doing over there. Because it's like, But I mean, no, I like, it's honestly like the simple, the simple answer in Toronto is like, Auston Matthews looks like Auston Matthews again.
- [57:36]
Chris Johnson
Again.
- [57:37]
Arpin Basu
Like, it's really not that complicated. It's not more complicated than that. Like, that's how big of a difference that guy makes. And so there's still like a lot of, in my eyes, just team building issues in Toronto. Their defense is not built for the modern game. They're a big, slow, kind of lumbering group on defense. It's not ideal. It might help them in the playoffs, which is what they were, what they were trying to do. That's, you know, they were sort of overcompensating for years of playoff failure. But that's not an ideal group on the blue line. But Auston Matthews is still Auston Matthews and he wasn't for the first half of the season or much of it, and now he is. And I think you're seeing that. And so that's why when you, when you listed those, those odds, like the guy, the odds I'm looking at are Toronto's. Toronto has a good number there value wise. Like, I'm not a sports better at all. But if you're looking for, you know, if you're looking for rate of return, like the odds on Toronto to win the division are. They probably won't win the division. They're too far back. But still, I would, I would take a flyer on that if I were there.
- [58:33]
Mark Lazarus
They've got a brutal schedule. Between now and the Olympic break, I feel like we're going to know what they are.
- [58:37]
Arpin Basu
They have a brutal schedule the rest of the season. That's the worst part of their start was that it was home heavy. It was a lot of opponents that were beatable, like, you know, non playoff teams. Like, they had one of the easiest schedules in the league through like mid November, I want to say. But like, for, for a good chunk of the start of the year, not only were they losing, but they were wasting the most favorable part of their schedule. So yeah, now to climb up, they're going to have to, like, go through the toughest part.
- [59:01]
Mark Lazarus
We'll know what they are by the time we all go out to Milan. We'll, we'll have a better sense of what the Leafs are, I think. Yeah.
- [59:06]
Max Boltman
Yeah. All right. A lot more intrigue to come in the Atlantic, certainly through the rest of the way. Arpin, thanks so much for coming on and joining us, man.
- [59:13]
Arpin Basu
All right, thanks, guys.
- [59:14]
Max Boltman
We'll take a quick break. Be right back.
- [59:21]
Mark Lazarus
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Chris Johnson
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Chris Johnson
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Max Boltman
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Mark Lazarus
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Max Boltman
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Mark Lazarus
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Max Boltman
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Mark Lazarus
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Max Boltman
Hey, it's Adam Grant from Ted's podcast Work Life, and this episode is brought to you by ServiceNow. AI is only as powerful as the platform it's built into. That's why it's no surprise that more than 85% of the Fortune 500 companies use the ServiceNow AI platform, while other platforms duct tape tools together. ServiceNow seamlessly unifies people, data workflows, and AI connecting every corner of your business. And with AI agents working together autonomously, anyone in any department can focus on the work that matters Most. Learn how ServiceNow puts AI to work for people@servicenow.com. All right, we're back. And Laz, first of all, that was a fun conversation with arpa. But as we were going, I looked up because we were talking about the loser point and how we should judge teams in that way. Was it you or was it him that said the regulation loss thing? What we should really be judging? I think it was Arpin Said that was Arpin.
- [61:02]
Arpin Basu
Yeah.
- [61:05]
Max Boltman
I went and looked and man, the team whose profile gets the biggest lift from that lens is Vegas. Vegas only has 11 regulation losses this year. It's the same as the Wild. It's one less than Dallas. And oh, boy, are the narratives different around Vegas versus Minnesota and Dallas so far.
- [61:21]
Mark Lazarus
Well, that's why so many of us want to see like a three point system. Right. Where you get three points for a regulation win and only two points for an overtime win. Right. Like that changes things a little bit. Bit. It creates just enough separation, just enough motivation to go and win in the third period. Because you're not talking tiebreakers, you're talking real standings like Montreal, which is like, like Arpin said, really good at overtime, is playing for overtime a lot. And that's the smart thing to do. But it sucks from a fan standpoint, from a viewer standpoint. I want teams going for it in regulation and giving that third point for a regulation win would change a lot of things in the NHL.
- [61:52]
Max Boltman
Montreal is one of the few teams that I would buy is actually like good at overtime because of just their makeup. They're so fast, they're so young. They're so like, quick, quick. I can buy that. They would be a really scary team to play against in three on three, but I, I largely view three on three and the shootout as close to a coin flip. And so that's where like when I see Vegas has five overtime wins this year. Five overtime or shootout wins this year and, and 12 losses like that just feels completely.
- [62:19]
Mark Lazarus
Yeah.
- [62:20]
Max Boltman
Unlikely for.
- [62:21]
Mark Lazarus
I mean, three. Three on three is not hockey. Like we always talk about the shootouts, not hockey. Well, neither is three on three. That's not the way the sport is played. So. It is. There's an element of randomness to it. It's more hockey than the shootout, I suppose, but it's still not hockey. So deciding anything when that in that kind of a system. System, it's for an entertainment standpoint. It doesn't really show anything about competitive balance in the league.
- [62:43]
Max Boltman
Yeah, no, I mean Colorado, Montreal. I'm trying to think of the teams that I would buy as like, that team would be terrifying in three on three. It's the teams that have the fast.
- [62:50]
Mark Lazarus
Highly skilled players, Kucherov and Braden point out there and you're going to be okay.
- [62:54]
Max Boltman
That's right.
- [62:54]
Arpin Basu
Yeah.
- [62:54]
Max Boltman
San Jose Celebrini can. And Will Smith can take you quite a ways and with that much ice to work with. So I don't know, I'm going to Chew on that. That's going to probably factor into how I'm judging teams a little bit more because I like that. That sentiment that the regulation loss maybe should. Should weigh more into my thought process. I did want to talk about one more Atlantic team that we didn't spend a whole lot of time. Edmonton. Yeah, that's our producer Chris says I missed a big one. That is the scariest team. And I don't know if you to want watched that LA and. And Edmonton game late Saturday night. That was a doozy of a finish.
- [63:25]
Mark Lazarus
That was past my bedtime.
- [63:27]
Max Boltman
It was really good. I mean that's one to almost go back and watch.
- [63:29]
Arpin Basu
The last Saturday night it was.
- [63:31]
Mark Lazarus
It was Bears world in Chicago on Saturday night. There was not.
- [63:34]
Max Boltman
Oh no kidding. One more Atlantic team that we didn't spend a whole lot of time on in that segment but is certainly in the news right now is. Is Ottawa. And you know, it's a. It's a tough one because it's, you know, Linus. All Mark's absence for personal reasons basically has. Has led to a lot of speculation that went to way too far and in Ottawa ended up having to issue a statement, you know, putting it to rest and calling him Fabricated false stories spreading around social media about the club and anytime it gets to the point that the club is putting out a statement like that tells you that it. It's become kind of taken on a life of its own and you know, you've covered a situation. I don't remember if Chicago put out a statement to dispel it when it was. When it was Corey Perry a couple of years ago.
- [64:14]
Mark Lazarus
But.
- [64:14]
Max Boltman
But I was just curious like from your experience, what is that like to cover and to be around the players in a locker room as a story kind of completely jumps the shark in that way.
- [64:23]
Mark Lazarus
I've seen this twice in my time covering the Hawks. The last year's one, the one with Corey Perry was interesting because like as that rumor spread online, I was very quickly able to confirm that it was obviously untrue. Right. It was such an absurd thing that clearly didn't happen. And I had discussions with my editor. I had discussions with the Blackhawks, who you and me and the Blackhawks aren't exactly best friends over the years. But I said like, like they wanted me to write a story dispelling this rumor because I was confirming with them like everything that I already knew that it was clearly not true. But we at the Athletic decided not to run that because all that was going to do was draw more Attention to a salacious rumor that had no basis in reality. I did not hear this rumor until the Ottawa Senators put out that statement. And then all of a sudden I'm like, well, crap, now I got to go. I'm on Twitter searching, you know, Omar and seeing then. And then you very quickly find out. Like, I'm sure hundreds of thousands, if not millions of people found out about it because of the statement the Senators put out. So it's not always an easy thing to do. Obviously what happened last year weighed on one particular player with the Blackhawks more than others, but it was so ridiculous, it didn't really last. Back in 2015 though, in I think was like February or March, like as they were about to make their cup run, the rumor started going around about players and players wives and it was, it was really salacious. It was untrue. It was actually, I know more, way more about this than I wanted to know at the time. It was like four different things that happened that were like conflated into one oh my God rumor. It was like four little things and it got conflated into this one big thing. And like local sports radio in Chicago was talking about it openly as if it was fact. They were calling players drunks. They were saying, this guy's doing this to this guy. And like just talking about it like it was real. And it really like Patrick Sharp had to like make like a teary eyed statement in the locker room after a practice. He had to address it like flat out rumors about him. It was, it was really, it was tough on that room for several weeks there. It affected them, it affected their play there. They bottomed out in that March. They had like a four game stretch where they played like their four worst games they've ever played. And it was because all this was going on in their heads and obviously they came out of it. They went on to win the cup that year. But these kinds of things can. They don't tear a room apart. Like that's not what's going to happen, but they weigh on a player. When your family gets dragged into this stuff, it weighs on you as a player. When the, the insular, safe, protected bubble of the locker room gets infiltrated like that and your family gets dragged in. These guys are only human and it's hard to focus on your job when all that's going on.
- [66:47]
Max Boltman
Yeah, it just, it gets to a place where, you know, I'm, I'm sympathetic to fans wanting to know an answer when a player has been gone for a certain amount of time. Like, I think fans are generally willing to accept something for. For a game, two games a week. And I'm sympathetic that once it gets beyond a week, you're like, what. What's going on here? But the solution is not to just make up a. A reason or. Or buy the first reason that is put in front of you. And that's. That's where this stuff really breaks. Contain it. I got it got to me a couple hours before the senator's statement. So I did end up seeing it kind of organically, just through, you know, people sending it me tweets, oh, did you see this? And I'm like, you know, but that's.
- [67:24]
Mark Lazarus
That's the problem when it comes from, like, a Twitter account with, like, 300 followers. Like, why are. I don't understand why people are so credulous, but it kind of explains where we are. Where we are right now in the world at large. I think if I remember back in that 2015 one, it was like a New York Giants offensive lineman tweeted something about it, a guy with like, 50,000 followers, and he had, like, a friend of a friend of a friend of a friend who knew these guys. And that. That kind of seemed to give it credence to some people that don't that have very, very heard of the guy before. Yeah. So, like, they could just. They could pin it on him. And then, you know, these. Again, talk radio has a much lower bar, journalistically speaking, than a newspaper does. And the athletic does. You know, this is before the Athletics time, but like the New York Times, our owners, we have incredibly strict uses of sourcing and anonymous sourcing, and you got to really be 100% sure of something before you put it out there. Local radio station doesn't have to do that. They just put whatever they want out there. Right. So that's. Then it starts building steam because, well, he talked about on the radio and this Giants offensive lineman talked about it. It must be true. Right? And of course it wasn't. But then as a reporter, you can't exactly refute it because it's things, you know, that are off the record that refute it. Right. You start running into these brick walls where you just have to let it kind of run its course because you're never going to convince these people anyway. And you just sound, oh, you're just holding. Carrying water for the team, like, there's no way to win. When these rumors take root in the fan base and in the. In the hockey world at large, there's absolutely no Way to stem the tide. And it's just going to go on.
- [68:48]
Max Boltman
Well, we wouldn't be talking about it right now if not for the fact that the Senators put out a statement about it. So that's, to your point, like it.
- [68:54]
Mark Lazarus
And I don't know if that was right or not. Like, maybe it was right. I mean, it was so, it was, it was emphatic, like it was a good statement from that respect. But it also, you know, again, I don't pay that much attention on the daily basis to the Ottawa Senators. I don't think most hockey fans do. And this called, this was like putting a glowing red arrow pointing at Ottawa. Look something up about Ottawa. Look something up about Ottawa. It greatly expanded the, the breadth of the rumor. But while trying to shut it down, there's, it's a no win situation.
- [69:23]
Max Boltman
I think it was the right call because whether you call a little more attention to it or not, the important thing is you send the message that it's not true. And that's the important message that you're sending to anyone who is following it. And anyone who follows it from there goes in with the precedent that it's already been, you know, shot down.
- [69:39]
Mark Lazarus
But I, I bet you they had, you know, I bet that we, we, we're good with the Ottawa, with the Ottawa vp. I, I haven't talked to him about this, but I'm sure Ian Mendes had a lot of, a lot of long conversations about this with upper management and how to handle it because it's just an absolutely no win situation.
- [69:54]
Arpin Basu
Yeah.
- [69:55]
Max Boltman
All right. That's going to do it for us. Thanks for listening to this episode of the Athletic Hockey Show. Good news for you. It's double Sean Wednesday. Next episode, Gentili Macindo, Frankie Corrado.
- [70:03]
Arpin Basu
Have you.
- [70:03]
Mark Lazarus
Then we'll.
- [70:10]
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