Olympic roster breakdowns: should Jason Robertson be on Team USA?

Summary

The Athletic Hockey Show – Olympic Roster Breakdowns: Should Jason Robertson Be on Team USA?

Date: January 5, 2026
Hosts: Max Bultman, Mark Lazarus, Jesse Granger

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Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into the newly-announced 2026 Olympic men’s hockey rosters, with a particular focus on Team USA's controversial omission of Jason Robertson. The panel debates the merits and logic of the selection decisions, both for the American and Canadian squads, dissects notable snubs, analyzes goaltending choices, and closes with broader predictions for the NHL in 2026 and beyond. The tone is passionate, occasionally heated, but deeply informed and thoughtful.

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Main Theme

Debate and analysis of the 2026 Olympic men's hockey rosters, with specific focus on contentious selection decisions — should Jason Robertson have made Team USA? What about other high-profile snubs for the U.S., Canada, and Sweden? Plus, the implications and predictions for NHL trends in 2026.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Jason Robertson Snub: Team USA's Most Controversial Decision

(01:42–13:11)

• Mark Lazarus launches with strong criticism:
  • “Leaving Jason Robertson off this team is one of the dumbest, most cut-off-my-nose-to-spite-my-face things I’ve ever seen… He’s a better defensive player than he gets credit for... Never mind that he scores goals. What did the United States not do enough of in Four Nations? They didn’t score enough goals.” (02:00)
  • Questions the inclusion of Vincent Trocheck, Brock Nelson, and J.T. Miller over Robertson.
• Max Bultman is more sympathetic to management’s rationale:
  • Points out the low-scoring, tight style of high-level international play, and argues that Robertson’s offensive ability may not translate as much in a bottom-six, limited-minutes role. Suggests his exclusion is more about team construction than a head-to-head snub versus Miller or Trocheck. (03:19)
• Jesse Granger pushes back:
  • Notes that leaving Robertson off is “setting [Guerin] up to not have this job anymore if America doesn’t win the gold medal.” (05:15)
  • Says the only reason to make such a risky call is if management truly believes in their “correct construction” theory.
• Panel highlights the Four Nations tournament obfuscating the selection criteria:
  • Mark: “We are putting way too much stock in what Four Nations was. That was a ridiculously short tournament.” (13:11)
  • Max: “Best-on-best hockey is tight, hard, and fast — you don’t have the space to operate.”
• Role of personal bias and “hockey men” reputations in selection:
  • Once a player has a reputation, “these hockey men… just do not change their minds.” (Mark, 22:34)

2. U.S. Defensive Selections: The Adam Fox Dilemma

(14:20–18:51)

• Panel is torn between Adam Fox and Seth Jones/Noah Hanifin:
  • Mark: “I probably would have put Adam Fox on [the roster] just on sheer talent and ability. I want my very best players out there.” (14:44)
  • Max: Fox’s smaller stature and less effective play in Four Nations were mitigating factors; Jones’ resurgence in the Stanley Cup playoffs tipped the scale.
  • Jesse: Surprised Noah Hanifin made the team given his struggles in Vegas.
• Laz proposes:
  • Larger Olympic taxi squads for flexibility, due to the distance and risk of injury.

3. Team Canada: Bedard, Snubs, and Goalie Debate

(22:05–34:19)

• Connor Bedard left off Team Canada:
  • Max is “much more sympathetic to the egregious snub takes for Canada”; thinks Bedard’s evolved game warranted selection. (22:05)
  • Mark: “He is fully engaged defensively… Everything about [Bedard] now says, ‘I’m more than a one-way player.’” (22:34)
• Brad Marchand, Mitch Marner, Tom Wilson discussion:
  • Jesse notes the forward group is so stacked you can’t easily choose who to remove for Bedard or Sam Bennett.
• Defense: Matthew Schaefer should have been included:
  • Mark: “He is so game-breaking… If I’m Team Canada, I want that kid on my back end, just pushing the play… He has that big game mentality.” (26:30)
  • Jesse: “There is no hesitation. He feels like he belongs here—and not just belongs, but is the best player on the ice most of the time.” (27:12)
• Goaltending controversy — Jordan Binnington:
  • Mark: “He’s been atrocious this year. And not only is he on this team, he probably gets first crack. Are they nuts?” (27:54)
  • Jesse perfectly sums up the optimal deployment: “I have no problem bringing Binnington as the third goalie. But not as the starter.” (28:32)
  • Max: Defends the “gambler’s logic” of picking a goalie who has been unbeatable in past big moments (30:21)
  • Jesse: “He’s not the starter in St. Louis. Joel Hofer has been without a doubt the better goalie for the last month.” (32:05)

4. Sweden and Other National Teams: Bubble Roster Decisions

(34:39–38:42)

• Sweden’s Forward/Defense choices:
  • Respect for Sweden’s depth; debate whether Sweden is closer to Canada/USA than Finland/Czechia (panel consensus is yes).
  • Max makes the case for Simon Edvinsson over OEL, and notes that several big Swedish names were left off.
  • Jesse and Mark: Emil Heineman and Michael Backlund as “quiet snubs” for Sweden.
• Dark horses & goaltending:
  • Switzerland and Germany discussed as medal longshots, but lack the star goaltending to plausibly upset a favorite.
  • Jesse: “If Grubauer can [get hot], Germany’s live.” (39:01)
  • Czechia’s goalie pedigree lauded, with nods to past legend Dominik Hašek and present depth.

5. Tournament Predictions & NHL Storylines for 2026

(44:06–54:25)

• Western Conference Playoff Preview:
  • Mark predicts the Central’s grueling playoff path could leave the favored Avs too battered to win the Cup. (44:06)
  • Max: “Maybe the freshness [of the Pacific challenger] is enough to tilt it.”
  • Nathan MacKinnon for +100 plus/minus season (45:41)
  • Jesse: Avs’ explosive, quick-strike ability is what makes them special — “The Avs need about five [good] minutes out of 60. If they play five good minutes, they beat you.” (46:41)
• Goaltending in 2026:
  • Jesse: 2026 is the year Logan Thompson finally gets his due as elite — predicts Canada wins gold with Thompson as their starter and that he wins the Vezina. (48:45)
  • Longer discussion of what it takes for a goalie to rise to “elite” status — consistency above all. (51:00)
• Breakout Candidates:
  • Max predicts Matt Boldy hits 50 goals, cements himself as a top-tier winger (52:54)
  • Mark: Sidney Crosby scores 45+ for the second time in his career, and if the Penguins make the playoffs, it’ll be because Crosby “dragged them in.” (54:27)

6. The Winter Classic and the Future of Outdoor Games

(55:36–60:51)

• Hosts reflect on the fading novelty of the Winter Classic:
  • Mark: “It’s terrible television… I want to see more like Lake Tahoe-style games in really cool environments. The NHL only cares about the short payday.” (56:07)
  • Max and Jesse suggest more creative, visually striking locations would rejuvenate interest, even if it costs some in-person ticket revenue.
  • Jesse: “Maybe we just have to wait for the next pandemic [for a forced change to the format].” (59:33)
• Who is the outdoor game really for?
  • “Maybe the answer is the NHL should tell all of us who want to watch it on TV to screw off… if you’re making the experience for the people who are showing up…maybe that’s the answer.” (Max, 59:41)

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Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• On the Jason Robertson snub:
  • “Leaving Jason Robertson off this team is one of the dumbest, most cut-off-my-nose-to-spite-my-face things I’ve ever seen… He’s second among Americans in goals… What has J.T. Miller done to deserve that spot over him?” — Mark Lazarus (02:00)
  • “If Bill Guerin was managing Team USA’s Olympic team just to keep his job…, that’s a bad general manager. I want the general manager who is going to win the tournament.” — Max Bultman (06:54)
  • “If there are a hundred American hockey fans, ninety-nine of them want Bill Guerin fired if they don’t win gold.” — Jesse Granger (05:15)
• On Bedard’s reputation:
  • “Once you have a reputation in this league, it’s so difficult to shed it. These hockey men… just do not change their minds.” — Mark Lazarus (22:34)
• On Canada’s goalie situation:
  • “To go in with [Jordan Binnington] being your guy is a complete joke and disrespectful to the other goalies who are clearly better than he is.” — Jesse Granger (29:17)
• Olympic “miracle” logic:
  • “In the past like century, one time [that selecting ‘the right guys’ over the best players] worked. And they named the movie Miracle.” — Mark Lazarus (04:36)
• Sweden’s snubbed defenders:
  • “Simon Edvinsson is an elite skater… he’s going to be a part of the Sweden Olympic blue line in the future. One cycle too early for him.” — Max Bultman (36:20)
• On the dwindling excitement of outdoor games:
  • “It’s terrible television...I want to see more like Lake Tahoe-style games…All football and baseball stadiums kind of look the same.” — Mark Lazarus (56:07)
  • “Maybe the answer is that the NHL should tell all of us who want to watch it on TV to screw off, because it’s for the people who are there.” — Max Bultman (59:41)

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• Olympic roster reactions, Team USA & Robertson argument:
  01:42–13:11
• US defense selections & taxi squad discussion:
  14:20–18:51
• Team Canada (Bedard, Schaefer, goaltending):
  22:05–34:19
• Sweden’s roster debate, snubs, goaltending for “other” teams:
  34:39–38:42
• Tournament predictions & NHL landscape:
  44:06–54:25
• Winter Classic & outdoor game reform:
  55:36–60:51

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Episode Highlights

• Heated, honest debate about the Team USA’s construction principles and whether “role players” still belong at the expense of stars in modern best-on-best events.
• Nuanced take on how reputation and past performance influence Olympic selections, with concern that management over-values a single short tournament.
• Refreshingly candid discussion of the limitations of the current outdoor games, with creative suggestions for rejuvenating the experience.
• Forward-looking predictions that root recent decisions in broader trends within the NHL.

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Tone

• Energetic, passionate, a touch irreverent. The panel does not hold back harsh criticism but balances it with in-depth, knowledgeable analysis. Occasional levity and banter make the episode accessible even to casual fans.

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Recommended for:

• Hockey fans seeking a sharp, thorough breakdown of international roster politics and Olympic team construction.
• Listeners curious about which snubs matter and why, and what it all means for the games ahead.

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End of summary

Transcript

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[Mark Lazarus]

This is the Athletic Hockey Show.

[Max Bultman]

Hey, everybody, Max Boltman here alongside Mark Lazarus and Jesse Granger for another episode of the Athletic Hockey Show. And guys, we finally got the Olympic rosters. We have projected them, debated them for months on end. They are here. Mark Lazarus, what's your biggest surprise now that we have all the Olympic rosters?

[Mark Lazarus]

You know, surprise. I don't think surprise is the word because I think we all knew where Bill Garon was going with this. But the Jason Robertson, you know, leaving Jason Robertson off this team is one of the dumbest, most, you know, cut off my nose despite my face, things I've ever seen. Look, Bill Guerin doesn't like Jason Robertson. I think that's pretty clear. Doesn't think very highly of him as a player. But Bill Guerin's wrong. Jason Robertson is a terrific player. He's a better defensive player than he gets credit for. But never mind that he scores goals. What did the United States not do enough of in four nations? They didn't score enough goals. And Jason Robertson is second among Americans in goals. He's ninth in assists. He's first in points. He's second in power play goals. He's first in power play points. What has J.T. miller done to deserve that spot over him? What has Vincent Trocheck done to deserve that spot? I hope I like Jason Robertson a lot, having dealt with him over the years. I hope he goes and scores a hat trick every single time he plays the Minnesota Wild for the rest of his life. And I hope he points to the press box every single time because this makes absolutely no sense.

[Jesse Granger]

That's personal.

[Max Bultman]

You are. You are it very.

[Mark Lazarus]

You know. You know, I'm not a jingoistic guy. I'm not really a guy who usually got to have America win. I'm not one of those guys. I kind of like it when like a Slovakia or a Czechia wins. I think what's happening in world juniors is great. I want to see those countries win. But this is like, it's just a slap in the face to American hockey fans to not put one of your very best players on this team because of, I don't know, reasons.

[Max Bultman]

He's had an amazing season. There's no doubt he's a great goal scorer. But when you talk about like the Four nations last year, the US didn't have enough goals. It's not that the US didn't have enough skill players. I mean, it's not like the US roster was untalented. It's that the hockey at those events is conducive to very, very low scoring games. And so if I'm, if I'm. I haven't talked to Bill Guerin.

[Mark Lazarus]

Right.

[Max Bultman]

I'm handicapping why that decision went that way and I can see an argument for it. In fact, I probably would have leaned a similar direction in this particular case. I think you can make an argument for Jason Robertson on this roster for sure. But it's not over those checkers. It's not over Miller and Trocheck. To me, I think it's over Clayton Keller, it's over Tage Thompson. Maybe you can try to make that case over your boy Jack Hughes, but I don't think you want to do that. That's the role that you're going to put a Jason Robertson in. And once you have Kyle Conner, Jack Hughes, Tage Thompson, I think slightly different down the lineup as a center. That's where I think you see Jason Roberson get boxed. I don't really think it is head to head against Trocheck.

[Mark Lazarus]

Vincent Trocheck had no points in Four Nations. Brock Nelson had no points in Four Nations. J.T. miller had no points in Four Nations. This loyalty to a Four nations roster that lost to Jordan Binnington, who right now is one of the worst goalies on the planet, is just, is mind boggling. Is points for more goal.

[Max Bultman]

Is points the only way you want to judge these guys?

[Jesse Granger]

I mean, they didn't win.

[Mark Lazarus]

They did not win. There's this mirror and I keep hearing it from fans about this miracle. You know, we don't want the best players. We want the players. Look, that happened one time in 1980, 45 years ago, two weeks before I was born, was the last time that method actually worked for the United States. In the past, like century one time they've won, it took an actual miracle. They named the movie Miracle. That's how unlikely that championship was. Put your best players on the ice and let them go win.

[Max Bultman]

Well, first of all, that 40 year span you're talking about includes about three tournaments where the best players have been eligible. So I don't know that that's as impactful as the four decades talk there, but go ahead, Jesse.

[Jesse Granger]

Yeah, I mean, I totally agree with Mark that the, the, the idea that the US has to put together this team that isn't their best players, that is like a specific type of player, is ridiculous. And I think that Bill Garon and his staff believe it more than anything they've ever believed in their lives. Because why on earth would you do this? Like Bill Garbage. They know leaving Jason Robertson off this team is going to cause anger amongst American hockey fans. Like I don't. There are maybe for, for every one person that's glad Jason Robertson isn't on the team, there are a hundred American hockey fans that want Bill Garon fired if they lose this, if they don't win the gold. He is setting himself up to not have this job anymore if America doesn't win the gold medal. So therefore, to me, that tells me that he knowingly did this, fully aware that it was going to be against the majority opinion, which tells me that he believes the only way he can beat Canada is this way. Maybe he's right. Bill Garon knows a lot about hockey. He's, he's doing a fantastic job in Minnesota. He might be right. I disagree with him, just like Mark does. But I, I will say he must believe in this with everything he's got because it would have been very easy to just put Jason Robertson on the, on the roster, not have these controversial decisions. And then if he Loses to Canada, you say, well, what am I supposed to do? We were overmatched. We, like I put the, the top scoring guys, I put the guys everyone wanted on the roster. We were overmatched. They beat us, and he probably keeps this job. The way he's doing this is he either he's going to be the hero who was right and we were all wrong, or he's not the GM of the American team anymore. After this is the way I see.

[Max Bultman]

It, what I'll say to that is good because if Bill Guerin was managing Team USA's Olympic team, trying to just keep his job for the next Olympic team and the things that no one's going to get mad at him for if they lose, that's a bad general manager. I want the general manager who is going to win the tournament. And I think that's what he did. The snub of all snubs, Jason Robertson. And again, I think very highly of this player. He's an excellent player, but for all the oxygen it's got of what an egregious error it is to leave him home for J.T. miller. Jason Robertson, on a better team than the New York Rangers this year, has an expected goal share of 53.3%.

[Mark Lazarus]

The.

[Max Bultman]

The woeful, tragic inclusion of JT Miller is 53.29. Laz, this is not this like drastic snub here. I get. He puts the puck in that he's going to play seven minutes a night. If he's there, he doesn't kill penalties. I don't believe he's ever killed a penalty. I was looking at this the other day. I haven't. If he did, it was not statistically significant enough to register. I, I don't have a problem with this decision and I can't believe that it's as big a problem in the overall conversation.

[Mark Lazarus]

I will agree with you guys that, you know, Bill Guerin, he's got, he's got some stones on him, right? He very much could have just gone the easy way and taken the, the guys that score the most goals. And he has a. He believes. But, you know, I, I'd rather see Cole Caulfield or Alex DeBrincat or Jason Robertson. I want to see some guys that can put the puck in the net. This smacks of me to the world. Remember the World cup in 2016, that unforgettable tournament that just changed our lives forever. Justin Abdelkader was on the Team USA because John Tortorella wanted some, he wanted some jam on the team.

[Max Bultman]

Like, do you think any of these.

[Mark Lazarus]

Guys to the bronze medal here at.

[Max Bultman]

Best, you know J.T. miller's at 100 points in the NHL, right? Like, that's not just an abdicator.

[Mark Lazarus]

Yeah, no, no. Yeah, but you're. You're paying. You know, this reminds me of is the Brent Seabra contract here, which here with the Blackhawks where they were paying for past performance and not what he was at the moment. J.T. miller is not good this year. We are halfway through the season. That's a strong sample size. He has not been productive. He's on a losing team. He is not a positive difference maker for that team. You are paying for J.T. miller of two years ago. This is not the same player I want Jason Robertson of now. I don't want J.T. miller from because of what he was two years ago.

[Max Bultman]

You're not paying anything. You're picking a player who's going to pay seven minutes a night of best on best hockey. And the players that you're going to be going up against. Canada's fourth line is like Tom Wilson, Nick Suzuki, Brad Marchand, could be Anthony Sorelli. Like, the purpose of the player that you're picking for that role is not to score a goal in the slot because you're going to have the puck the whole time. You're going to be out there for seven minutes. And most of your job is try to get the puck from Nick Suzuki and Tom Wilson. If I ask you, who do you trust to get the puck from Nick Suzuki and Tom Wilson? Are you taking J.T. miller? Are you taking Vincent Trocheck? Are you taking Jason Robertson?

[Mark Lazarus]

A Trojek's the one that I can. I can live with Trocheck on the team because he does fit that role. I don't feel like J.T. miller fits that role. He just. He's. Jason Robertson is a big, strong body who has this reputation that seems to be. I watch a lot of Dallas Stars hockey. I'm kind of the stars guy for us, the athletic. And he is a much better all around player. Look, he's not. Nobody's trying to say he's Patrice Bergeron out there, but he's a big, sturdy body. He plays a great player.

[Max Bultman]

They're all great players.

[Mark Lazarus]

That's how these goals are going to get scored. They're going to get scored in front of the net with big strong bodies whacking away at loose pucks. And that's what Jason Robertson does better than almost anybody in the league. And leaving him off seems Just unconscionable to me.

[Jesse Granger]

J.T. miller is a good hockey player. Jason Robertson's a good hockey player. Jason Robertson is. It's un. He is unquestionably a better hockey player than J.T. miller. Unquestionable.

[Max Bultman]

In. In the NHL, that's 100% true. But in the NHL, you get to play a ton of different lines where Jason Robertson can use that to. To full extent. Again, like against the.

[Mark Lazarus]

J.T. miller didn't have any points in four nations.

[Jesse Granger]

He has done nothing to deserve this. I like. I agree with your argument, Max. If it comes to like I like, I. I think that Brock Nelson. That argument fits. I would rather have Brock Nelson out there in the defensive zone playing defensive minutes, playing shutdown minutes, and he's having a great year. I just don't think J.T. miller is that player. Maybe I'm wrong.

[Max Bultman]

Yeah. It may or may not be right. I. I know that at the last tournament, like, J.T. miller was a guy who probably underperformed, but he also was willing to play that role.

[Mark Lazarus]

Right?

[Max Bultman]

I mean, it's. Is Jason Robertson going to go out there in seven minutes and play the kind of game. I keep saying seven minutes, who knows? Maybe it's 12, right? But maybe it's three. Maybe it's a scratch.

[Mark Lazarus]

Right.

[Max Bultman]

My one thing that I. That I can kind of come around on the Robertson side of this is that if someone is going to get hurt at this tournament, I think it's more likely to be the smaller skill players than it is kind of your bottom six bangers who tend to be a little more, you know, built a little more durable. And if that happens, if there's an injury you're going to really wish that you had, whether it's Jason Robertson, whether it's Cole Caufield, whether it's Alex DeBrincat, I just. I'm having a hard. It's not even so much that I'm saying, like, they got this right with a bullet. It's that I'm saying I'm surprised that the pushback is this big for what ultimately amounts to like a 13th forward kind of piece.

[Mark Lazarus]

Well, first of all, I don't think Jason Robertson should be the 13th forward. That's where we digress here. But let me ask you this. There is some clear bitterness on Jason Robertson's part right now, deservedly so, understandably. Like, he was in Chicago the night that the team was announced, and I tried to talk to him, and they kept kind of pushing me off, pushing me off. And eventually Robertson Just I was told he didn't want to talk. He was too. He was too upset about it, which I understand. If there's an injury between now and February 5th or whatever the cutoff date is, is Robertson Garon's first call, or is that too acrimonious? Like, is he going to go to Alex DeBrincat or Cole Caulfield rather than swallow his pride and pick the guy he controversially didn't pick, Bill Garon. You know, again, this is a stubborn, proud guy who does things the way he wants to do. And I wonder if. If he'd have the. If he'd be magnanimous enough to call Jason Robertson right now, given all the grief he's gotten for not picking him in the first place.

[Max Bultman]

Well, again, if he's the right gm, that's not going to be what stops you.

[Mark Lazarus]

Right?

[Max Bultman]

If you're the right gm, you do what's best for Team usa. So, you know. But we'll see. That's a complete hypothetical. I have no way of knowing that. Again, like, Jason Robertson absolutely deserves to be on the team by what he did. But I just. I have a hard time when you're picking a team, you're looking at roles. I have a hard time getting that fired up about picking the guy who is extremely talented as well. But he's heavier. I don't think he's any faster. That's the one thing about Miller vs. Robertson is that one of Robertson's big flaws, I think, is the skating. That's a huge flaw for J.T. miller, too. So even though he's maybe a little meaner, it doesn't address that. And that'd be the hardest case I would be able to try to make, is that, you know, pace would be my biggest obstacle in taking Robertson. It's still a question the other way.

[Mark Lazarus]

I just feel like, overall, we are putting way too much stock in what Four nations was. That was a ridiculously short tournament. And I think. I think people are drawing too many conclusions. Even Team Canada picking Jordan Bennington with the season he's having. We're putting too much stock in what happened in a very fluky short tournament last year.

[Max Bultman]

Well, I don't know that it's putting stock in that because they made the same decision before that tournament. I think it's just like it's projecting what best on best hockey is. Like, it's tight, it's hard, it's fast. Like, it's. We know this. We know this from 2006. We know this from 2010. Right.

[Mark Lazarus]

And 2014 Team Canada would just suffocated everybody. It was some of the. Some of the least visually appealing hockey I've ever seen, but it was the most effective hockey I've ever seen.

[Max Bultman]

And that's kind of what I'm getting at.

[Jesse Granger]

Right.

[Max Bultman]

Is like if I thought that you were going to have space to operate in the way that Jason Robertson can operate and granted he's got a quick release. I'm not saying he's not a good one touch shooter. I think a lot of the goals at this tournament are going to be how you describe just finding one around the crease and banging it in. And I'm just not sold that J.T. miller is not one of the very best options in the NHL to do that. I know that the stats this year aren't good, but at the very least, even if I'm not arguing like he had to be on this team, I can absolutely see it. And I think when we projected this on the Prospect Series, I think I had J.T. miller on mine too.

[Jesse Granger]

So along those lines, we've talked a lot about these Rangers who maybe you're on the team and some of us don't think they belong on the team. There is a Ranger that a lot of people do think belonged on the team and he's not on the team. Adam Fox.

[Max Bultman]

Yeah.

[Jesse Granger]

Do you guys agree with the decision to take, whether it's Noah Hannifin or Seth Jones, whoever you want to say, is that last defenseman for the U.S. would you have taken them over?

[Mark Lazarus]

Over. It's tough because. Because we all saw Adam Fox in that. And again, I just said that we shouldn't put too much stock into Four nations, but that game was a little fast for him. It seemed like he was a step behind. Is Seth Jones going to be able to keep up? I don't know. He's bigger, he's stronger. He just had a Stanley cup run. He. Seth Jones belongs on the team. I probably would have put Adam Fox on there just on sheer talent and ability. I want my very again, I want my very best players out there. I don't agree with leaving him off, but I think a case can be made based on his performance of Four Nations. He just did not look like the Adam Fox that won the Norris just a few years ago.

[Max Bultman]

He's having an awesome season. I think he's done everything he can to kind of respond to that. And. And you want to give this a short tournament. Right. But I think what happened in it is what people fear would happen. With Adam Fox, and again, tight, fast hockey. He's a smaller guy. He's one of the smartest, if not the smartest player in the NHL. I don't think any of us would dispute that. But when they're coming at you that fast, it's a different kind of ball game. And I think Seth Jones's play in the Stanley cup finals made him a pretty strong candidate for this too. This was a guy who I think was a big piece of, of of Team USA's kind of outlook four or five years ago. Reputation went in the tank a little bit over the last few, but when he showed that in the Stanley cup playoffs, it was like, oh, right. This guy is a prime age, 6 foot 4, highly mobile defenseman who can smother transition. Now my, my question again here is, if it's an injury situation, who's more like who's the most likely players to get injured? You know, Charlie McEvoy got hurt at last year's tournament and you can't ever project any injury. So it's, it's a little bit of a fool's errand. If, if one of Hughes or Warensky goes down, you're gonna really, really wish you had Adam Fox. But if not, I think if those guys are healthy, Seth Jones, you could probably deploy in more situations.

[Jesse Granger]

Or even Elaine Hudson. Like if you need a power play quarterback. Like there's an argument that if Quinn Hughes gets hurt, you'd rather replace him with Lane Hudson than Seth Jones. Or, or like. I watched Noah Hannifin every day here in Vegas. I was very surprised to see his name on the list because he didn't play much at Four Nations. I didn't think that he played very well in the time he did play. And then he's had a pretty bad season for the Golden Knights. Like they lost Alex Petrangelo, Shea Theodore has been injured, Braid McNabb has been injured. A lot has been put on Noah Hannifin's plate and it hasn't gone well. Like I look at Seth Jones, you mentioned how well he played in the Stanley cup finals, and I totally agree. But also this year, the, the Panthers have had so many injuries and Seth Jones has stepped up and played big minutes and played them really well. Whereas I've seen Noah Hannifin, he hasn't been terrible, but he hasn't elevated his game the way you hoped a player like that would in this type of situation. So I was a little surprised to see Hannifan on the list.

[Mark Lazarus]

It's a good point.

[Max Bultman]

I I'm definitely treating it like it was Jones over Fox. It could have been Hannifin over Fox, right?

[Mark Lazarus]

Yeah. No, I, I think Jones was a no brainer for this team. Like you said, the way he can skate and at his, his size and now the big game experience he's had, I thought he was a no brainer. But let me ask you this. Do you think that given how far these games are from North America, should there be larger taxi squads? I mean, we got two extra defensemen on each team basically, and a couple of extra fours. Should there be three or four? Should teams be able to like rotate guys in and play? Like we see that in some like, like world championship site tournaments. I feel, I feel like where not everybody's going to play all seven games or however many games it is. And you might like, oh, against Czechia, you know, Adam Fox is a better matchup, but against Slovakia, Noah Hadiffin's a better matchup. And you give guys a chance to participate without necessarily just, you know, being. I don't, I don't know, it sounds like a little bit of a participation trophy, but it gives teams a little more versatility, gets more guys in the mix and if there are injuries, you have people at hand in Italy instead of, you know, 12 hours away.

[Max Bultman]

I think teams would love it. The question would probably be, would players love it? Would players want to go over there and have like glorified mascot that they're spending two weeks on a, on a cotton Milan to, To not play in the Olympics? But if they get to be on the Olympic team, maybe that trade off is worth.

[Mark Lazarus]

That's what every number three goalie is there to do. Right? You know, that's if any of these number three goalies play, it's something disastrous happened. So, I mean, if those guys can do it, I think one or two extra defensemen probably wouldn't be the end of the world.

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[Mark Lazarus]

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[Max Bultman]

I have to say, like that's that's the Team USA side of this. On The Canada side of this, I am much more sympathetic to the kind of more like egregious snub takes like Connor Bedard. I, I know he's been hurt lately. I know that he's another one who it's like it's mainly offense. But you know, you had a great conversation with Jeff Blashell about this last week, last that I want to let you get into here because I do think Connor Bedard's game has evolved. I also think he's enough of a game breaker. It would have been very hard for me to leave him off this roster. And that's exactly what Canada did.

[Mark Lazarus]

I think Connor Bedard has he very early got a reputation in the league as a one way player. When he was an 18 year old center, he was a one way player. He got that reputation. And this is, it's like the Jason Robertson argument. Once you have a reputation in this league, it's so difficult to shed it. These hockey men, they form an opinion on you and they just do not change their minds. And I think Doug Armstrong probably hasn't seen enough Blackhawks games this year. You know, he was asked if Bedard's injury played a role in this. He goes, not really. Which means he didn't make the team on his own merits, which is hard to square when you watched him play all year because he is fully engaged defensively. He is digging pucks out of the corner, he is going to the body. He is a, he is not a tall man, but he is a thick, sturdy kid who can handle physicality, who gives out a little physicality, who's back checking with the same kind of reckless abandon that he plays in the offensive zone. He's creating offense for himself now. He's not just a catch and shoot guy like just, you know, firing three pointers from the, from long range. He can do it all. And he was third in the league in scoring when he got hurt. And he's going to be back. He's already skating, he's already shooting. It seems a little shortsighted to leave him off this team, but there's this idea that Macklin Celebrini is Patrice Bergeron and Connor Bedard is this one dimensional fluke when they're kind of the same player. In a lot of ways they are both spectacular. And Bedard has this reputation because he was a bad defensive player on two of the worst teams you ever saw the last two years. And it's going to take time for people to realize that he's more than what he Used to be, even if.

[Max Bultman]

Team Canada didn't think that they wanted to bump like a Mitch Marner out of their top six for Bedard, which I think is fair, Mitch Marner is a very good two way player in his own right. More proven, came up big in the four nations gold medal game. Same argument. Like pace wise, I know Brad Marchand is an amazing player. He's actually had a fantastic season. But pace wise, Connor Bedard or Brad Marchand, that's not even close. It's Connor Bedard at that point. Marchand has a little bit more edge, but he's still a small guy. Like there's a couple different spots on this team that I think you could have found room for Bedard.

[Jesse Granger]

Jesse, this team is just so stacked like the US Team. I find like the difference to me between the US and the Canada snubs is when I say like, I mean we can go on and on about these snubs for Team Canada. Like Sam Bennett to me is a huge snub. But also the difference is when I go to the US roster, I find guys that I would want to take off. Whereas on the Canadian roster it's like, okay, well who do I need to remove to put those guys on? Well, crap, These are the 12 best forwards in the world. Like they, like the forward group on this team is so stacked. As an American, it sucks to say this, but they're so stacked that I have a hard time finding the right guys to take off. Like a lot of people had problems with, with Tom Wilson and they were kind of having the same conversation that we were having about the Americans. Like, oh, are you bringing him for his physicality over some guys who can score? The problem with that argument is Tom Wilson has more goals than almost everyone. People are arguing, should be like, they're like, well this guy has better offense. Like, I don't know. Tom Wilson scored more goals than he has this year and he's killing everyone every night. Like, the team is so stacked. Their forward lineup is so stacked. I have a hard time pulling anyone off the roster.

[Mark Lazarus]

I can understand the argument that if you're going to have Bedard on this team, he has to be in the top six. And it's really hard to crack that top six. You don't want him in a fourth line roleplan. Like, you know, like Max says seven minutes a night. But man, wouldn't have been fun to see him playing with McKinnon or McDavid. How cool that would have been to see what he could have done. With, I mean, he's playing with Ryan Green and Andre Burakovsky in Chicago and putting up these numbers. Imagine what he could do. But the one that really gets me, honestly, it's not Bedard. It's Matthew Schaefer. How do you not put. I mean, we all saw what he did against the Maple Leafs the other night. This kid is a one man, you know, electrical storm. He is so incredible to watch. He is so game breaking. He has clearly that big game mentality. You can tell, like the stage doesn't phase him. He's out there on Hockey Night in Canada against the Maple Leafs and he's owning the game while sick. He has this Michael Jordan flu game. I want Matthew Schaefer on that team. If I'm, if I'm team Canada, I want that kid on my back end, just pushing the play, pushing everyone forward, pushing, bringing some youthful energy and excitement.

[Jesse Granger]

I.

[Mark Lazarus]

That kid, I want him every chance I can get. I want him on the ice.

[Max Bultman]

I'm completely with you. I think Matthew Schaefer is a game breaker. And I know he's 18. I'm sure that that was the deciding factor. Is it. Can you put an 18 year old in a moment that big? I just think everything about his season so far says yes. Like, when has Matthew Schaefer not not only met the moment but like risen to it, exceeded it? Like, did you see his overtime goal the other night? Like, this is one of the best defensemen in the NHL right now. Canada's blue line is good. I wouldn't say it's like the best blue line in the tournament. Like, I don't know how you find a way to leave Matthew Schaefer off of this team when everything he can do six, two skates great, has offense. Like, there's not a situation I would be afraid to put him out there in.

[Jesse Granger]

Yep, Mark nailed it. In terms of like, what stands out to me is just how confident he is with the puck on his stick. Like, there is no hesitation. There is no, like, wondering, should I try to take this game over? I'm only 18 or whatever. Like, no, it is like he feel, he feels like he belongs here and not just belongs, but is like the best player on the ice. Most of the time. He steps over the boards and it's true, he is. I, I'm shocked. And also like we said about if like McCarr were to go down, the guy you want manning your power play is Matthew Schaefer. Not some of these, like the sixth and seventh and eighth defenseman that they're bringing.

[Max Bultman]

That's more pronounced too. I mean, like, you got Thomas Harley, you got Shea Theodore, you got Josh Morrissey, all like very good power play quarterbacks. But Matthew Schaefer is a different level of dynamic than those guys.

[Mark Lazarus]

All right, I want to talk about whatever. The opposite of a snub is a bad decision, and it's Jordan Bennington justified. To me, Jordan Bennington, like, look, past is not prologue. Again, I keep harping on this. What happened in four nations doesn't matter. He was great at four nations. Surprised us all. He's been atrocious this year. The day he's announced to Team Canada, he immediately gives up six goals to Colorado. Yeah, Colorado is good. You know, guess who else is Team usa? Sweden, Finland, Czechia, Slovakia, Germany. Like, I don't understand how you could possibly put Jordan Bennington between the net, between the pipes. And not only is he on this team, he probably gets first crack at this. The way Team Canada is talking, are they nuts?

[Jesse Granger]

Okay, here's my argument for the Team Canada goalies. Because I think that I'm fine with the three they're bringing. As crazy as that sounds, I'm going to not be fine with the way they deploy them. Because to me, this is how I see it. There are three clear top Canadian goalies in the world right now, and that's Logan Thompson is number one, MacKenzie Blackwood is number two, and D' Arcy Kemper is number three. Now, I don't have a problem bringing Jordan Bennington as the third goalie. And the reason I say that is because, say, say it's the three guys they bring. I would have had Blackwood over Kemper, but let's just say the three that they brought, Kemper and Thompson, I would give those two the first crack. Logan Thompson, you're our starting goalie. If he doesn't play well, okay, we'll play Kemper. Now, if we have had two goalies go in and both fail enough that we're looking at the third goalie, the guy I want to bring in is Jordan Bennington. In that situation, in that very specific situation of the world is collapsing on us at the Olympics, the dude I want in the net is Jordan Bennington. However, that's not how they're going to play it. They're going to have Jordan Bennington be the starter and Logan Thompson is going to have to be on the bench and then you're going to turn to him if things go wrong. To me, that is totally wrong. Logan Thompson and or Mackenzie Blackwood and. Or Darcy Kemper should be the starting goalie for Team Canada and Bennington should be pull in case of emergency, throw this dude in who has proven that under stressful circumstances he can come up with a big game. But to go in with him being your guy is a complete joke and disrespectful to the other goalies who are clearly better than he is. Logan Thompson, clearly a better goalie for a extended period of time. He should be the starter, but he probably won't be.

[Mark Lazarus]

That is. That is the correct and nuanced perfect take. You are correct, Jesse, and you are also correct that they won't do that at all.

[Max Bultman]

Not to be the status quo defender here. I'm not, I'm not actually agreeing with Jordan Bennington here, but I think the. The argument would be we talked about miracle earlier on this episode, right? And the not looking for the best guys. I'm looking for the right ones. There's another quote from that movie talking about Jim Craig. And I don't know if this is a real quote or if this was invented by the movie, but it's like you ever seen him when he's at his best. And I think that's the argument here for Jordan Binnington is that whether it's about the four nations specifically, we have seen Jordan Bennington in big moments, step up and be unbeatable.

[Mark Lazarus]

He.

[Max Bultman]

He was outstanding in the gold medal game last year. And it's not about. Because the four nations are so important. It's. It's. It's a continuation of being a pretty good big game goalie historically. So I think Canada is probably doing this because they're like, well, we've seen it before. We know, we don't know for sure what we're going to get from a Logan Thompson in a big moment, but you have a good idea that Jordan Binnington has it in him. If he, if he continues what he's done in the NHL this year, you got to sit him down, but I think you got to give him game one just to see if he's capable of when that maple leaf goes on his chest, finding whatever headspace it is that switches him into robot mode.

[Mark Lazarus]

I don't know. I feel like this has to be a meritocracy, right? And he hasn't earned it. He. He was great. Look, if he doesn't make those couple of saves, I think it was on Matthews during overtime of the gold medal game for, for four nations. We're having completely different conversations here. He was spectacular, but he has a huge body of work this season where he has been atrocious and he does not deserve, based on something that happened a year ago, he doesn't deserve it over Logan Thompson and Darcy Kemper and Mackenzie Blackwood and a number of other goalies who are just better right now and have earned it more. This has to be a meritocracy. And a lot of times these kind of international rosters don't feel like meritocracies. They feel like, oh, the coach likes his guys and the GM likes his guys and these are the guys we're going to go with.

[Max Bultman]

I think that's, I think that's true.

[Jesse Granger]

The format makes me worry about like if they're going in and playing Bennington and seeing if he can be the guy. The fact now I think Canada opens up with Czechia, which is a tough opponent, but the way this sets up is for Canada to just smash a couple countries and just demolish them. And whoever the goalie in the net is, you're going to think that guy's locked in right now. Because I think I would probably look locked in playing behind that Canadian team against some of these countries. And then when you get to the knockout stage and all of a sudden things are real and it's a one game, what if, what if Bennington isn't informed? Like he clearly hasn't been informed this year. He's not the starter on St. Louis like Joel Hofer has been without a doubt the better goalie for the last month in St. Louis. So he isn't on form. And I think that you could be tricked into thinking he is on form because the team in front of him is just dominating. And then all of a sudden when, when things are level and you're playing against an equally, maybe not equally. If you're Canada, there are, there aren't many equals, but someone close to your skill level and you need the goalie. What if Bennington isn't in the form you think he is that you've been tricked into thinking because of these group stage games where you just smash these cans. I mean, we'll see.

[Mark Lazarus]

I do wonder, you know, I keep going back to Sochi because that's the last time we really saw best on best four nations was as close as we've gotten. But that, that wasn't an Olympics, right? So the last time we saw this was Canada under it was Mike Babcock and they were the most incredible defensive team I've ever seen. Canada, they just took the life out of other teams like that gold medal Game was like the one nothing or the Team USA game was one nothing. And Team USA barely ever got it across the blue line. They had no chance in that game. And Carrie Price got all this like hero love for it. And the guy made like 11 saves a game because that team was so. I wonder if Canada is going to be able to duplicate that if you can do that on NHL ice. Sochi was on the wider ice where it's easier to keep teams to the outside and really play a defensive style or if they're going to be a little more fun and gun. Given that they have Nathan McKinnon and Connor McDavid as their top two centers, I'm really curious to see the style of play that this Olympics has because in the past Olympic hockey's been kind of boring. This time around. I feel like it might be a little bit more uptempo and, you know, more four to three games and less two to one games.

[Max Bultman]

The talent gap is also shorter and there's no chance 12 years ago Team USA would have been able to leave Jason Robertson or Adam Fox off and have or even be an argument.

[Jesse Granger]

Right.

[Max Bultman]

This is the most talented US Team, the most that they'll be pushed. You know, they granted they went to overtime in 2010, so I guess they were pushed pretty good there, but it's the most that they'll have been pushing in 20.

[Mark Lazarus]

Quite something that was on NHL ice though. That was in Vancouver.

[Max Bultman]

That's true. And so maybe that's another kind of point to your argument. According to our friends at BetMGM, Canada plus 135. That is still the favorite. USA not far behind at plus 190. There's a gap after that. Sweden plus 525. Finland plus a thousand. Czechia plus 1300. Then you get into the real long shots.

[Mark Lazarus]

I feel like Sweden deserves a little bit more respect.

[Max Bultman]

I agree.

[Mark Lazarus]

Yeah, like Sweden should be Canada, U.S. and Sweden. There's not a lot of, a lot, not a lot of air between those three teams. Those are three ridiculously stacked teams.

[Jesse Granger]

Yeah, I agree that Finland, I mean Sweden feels closer to the US and Canada than they do to Finland and Czechia. Like those. That's where the tear break is to me. I agree.

[Max Bultman]

Yeah, no, I mean the question is probably other as many layers of game breaking depth on Sweden. They're also like their stars are in general younger than some of the like more like Prime McDavid. Prime McKinnon is a ridiculous one two punch that nobody can match. But like Leo Carlson, as good as he's going to be someday. Like there's still an age gap there in terms of like how many times you've been in those moments.

[Mark Lazarus]

And he's Sweden's number one center most likely too.

[Max Bultman]

I would have to think so. Yeah.

[Jesse Granger]

Sweden is overmatched at forward quite a bit compared to the US and Canada. But I think that they have great defenders and they've got two really good goalies, both coming from Minnesota. And obviously Markstrom's there too. But that tandem in Minnesota has been awesome. I feel like Sweden, even though they like if you're just stacking it up player by player, they're not nearly as good as the US or but I feel like because they've got good defense and good goaltending, they could be a pain in the butt for everyone who has to play them.

[Mark Lazarus]

Max, make the case. I know we're not going to get too deep into the snubs with Sweden here. Make the case for Simon Edmondson. How much is what he's doing is because he's playing with Moritz Cider and how much is he elevating Moritz Cider?

[Max Bultman]

It's both. I mean they're both better when they're together because they're with another very, very good player. Cider's the better player right now. Right. But Simon Edmondson is an elite skater. He's an ex. He's a one man breakout. He's got physicality. Recently he's shown some offense. If you're go look at the overtime goal he scored against Toronto. That's one where you saw and you were like this guy probably needs to be on the Olympic team, but he doesn't make it. And look, he's not the only snub on that blue line. Matthias Ekholm didn't make this team. Like that was very surprising to me. Even Hampus Lindholm getting up there in age but quite the track record. A guy I certainly would trust. And I guess that's true of Oliver Ekman Larson as well. But I think Simon Edmondson definitely did everything he could to put himself on that radar. He's dominant in transition both directions. Keeps the puck in well knows when to activate. Like he's going to be a part of the Sweden Olympic blue line in the future. I guess it was just one cycle too early for him.

[Mark Lazarus]

Yeah. Ekman Larson is the one that I would have. I would have replaced him with Evanson like Oel. He's a great player. He's been a great player for a long time and I'm happy for him that he's getting this chance. But if we're going by meritocracy, he's not having a great year on doing it on a bad defensive team. And yeah, I would like to see Evans. I want to see the new blood as often as I can.

[Jesse Granger]

Yeah, the one snub I had for Sweden, it's not nearly as like, it's not the same level of player that we've talked about snubs for the US And Canada. But I thought Emil Heinemann has been phenomenal on Long island and I was surprised and like, okay, who do you take out? I don't know. Pontus Holmberg to me was a little bit surprising just because he's not putting up the numbers again, this is like a player who's playing a role who they're specifically looking for. Maybe he plays that role better than Hyneman, but I just thought based on the season he's had, I expected Heineman to be on the roster and he wasn't.

[Mark Lazarus]

Michael Backlin too, he's having, he's, he's going to be on, you know, he might be a Selkie finalist this year and he didn't make this team that, that again, that shows how good Sweden is and how deep they are too, that they're having similar star players left off. Like really, really elite players left off. But that's the kind of guy that these, you know, these, these Olympic GMs tend to say we need guys that can kill penalties and can play on the fourth line and can check against a Conor McDavid. And Michael Backlin is, might be the best Swedish player for that position and he didn't even make it.

[Max Bultman]

Two more odds that I didn't mention. Switzerland plus 2500. Germany plus 8000. I think if either of those two teams had like a stud goalie, they would be a phenomenal metal dark horse because of some of the star power that both of those can boast. But I just don't see that goalie that can steal you that, that medal round game or that knockout round game to get you there.

[Mark Lazarus]

Oh, Jesse, what was the name of the latvian goalie in 2014 who almost beat Canada? Who was that? I can't remember yet. He had like a 70 save game in Sochi and it was like, that is exactly what you're talking about, Max, where one goalie can completely change the course of that once you get to the medal round can just single handedly end us, end a team's run. I can't remember who the goalie was though.

[Jesse Granger]

Yeah, I will not stand for this Akira Schmid slander though. Akira Schmid, amazing goalie for Switzerland. He's, he's obviously, I mean he's, he is a backup goalie in the NHL. He's played a lot this year for Vegas. Just because Aiden Hill's been hurt, I'm excited to see what he does. They also, I was talking to him the other day and like, so Switzerland's the type of country that leans on like international experience. It wouldn't surprise me if like they've got, I'm blanking on his name but they have a veteran goalie. He's like almost 40, but he's been playing over in the Swiss league. That might be their starter who's like kind of their go to guy for world championships. They've got decent goaltending. It's definitely not on the level of, of obviously like the top four. Germany's got Philip Grubauer. Who Philip Grubauer has been on a brutal run. Like we're talking about Jordan Bennington being bad this year. Grubauer has been worse than that for about four years since Seattle signed him. It's been a disaster. However, this is a bounce back year for him. He's been much better for the Kraken if he can. Like you said, they've got dry Seidel, they've got Stutzler. Like they've got some high insider. Yeah, if Grubauer can have a miracle like, like play the way he has for Seattle this year, maybe Germany's live.

[Mark Lazarus]

And you know every single one of these goalies on these non big four teams are in the back of their head. They're like, I could be on a postage stamp, man. Like all I got to do is one big game in the medal round and I am on a postage stamp and I am a hero for the rest of my life. You can't really say that. If you're like a forward or a defenseman, a goalie can do it. You know, you could be the opposite of what Tommy Salo was in Sweden and you could become a megastar for the rest of your life and never have to buy a drink again.

[Jesse Granger]

I have a story coming out on the Czech goalies and it's kind of along those same lines of like, you can be like Dominic Koshik in 98 is probably the best example ever. I mean like obviously the Czech goalies are very good. Loki Sto, Stahl, Karel Vomelka. They're not on Hasik's level. But there was a time when Hasik and Jagger single handedly drugged that team to a gold medal. I don't know if these Czech goalies are ready to do it, but like, that's kind of the, the, the narrative is like, hey, not only has it been done, it's been done in this country. And they've got the goaltending. Like, Czechia is going to be a tough out. They obviously have very good forwards too with posternach and nature. But the Czech goaltending is going to be phenomenal in this tournament. They're. They're going to be a tough out.

[Max Bultman]

Here's your answer from producer Chris Laz. It was Christers Gudlevskis.

[Mark Lazarus]

That sounds correct. Yes, yes. It was one of the most amazing games I've ever seen an athlete play at any level. It was in the. Oh my God. The tension among the Canadians during that game was. It was delicious. That's what I love about the Olympics, right? Like, I grew up rooting for like Slovakia because I was a Ziggy Palfi fan. And I never rooted for Team USA or Canada. I always rooted for those smaller countries because it just feels like, like if Canada wins the gold medal, it's going to mean a lot to them, those guys. Like, don't get me wrong, I've seen Jonathan T. With a gold medal around his neck and he was on the verge of tears. But if you're like Finland, if you're the Czechs and you pull out a gold, it means so much to so many people. Finland winning the World Championships four or five years ago was like life changing for some of those guys. So I'm always rooting for the smaller countries to pull off those upsets like we saw in the World Juniors. I loved watching the Czech team beat Canada and what was it, the Fins that beat the United States. I love seeing that. That's the best.

[Max Bultman]

And both of those teams earned it. Like, those were not flukey upset wins.

[Mark Lazarus]

Those were excellent performance, awesome last night.

[Max Bultman]

Absolutely. A lot more Olympics obviously to come over the next two months here. We're gonna take a quick break right there.

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[Max Bultman]

All right, we are back. And as we get into 2026 here, guys, I wanted to make some room for us to make some predictions here. I know we, we mostly do that at the start of seasons, but the start of calendar years feels relevant as well too. Laz, so what do you got here in, in 2026, what's going to happen?

[Mark Lazarus]

All right, I don't know how firmly I believe this, but I do. I, I don't think the AVs are going to win the Stanley Cup. I think it's going to be like ruins a few years ago where they are not tested enough during the regular season and then they immediately have to play like it's going to be either Dallas or Minnesota in the second round. That's a pretty quick conference final, Stanley cup final level matchup. The three best teams in the, in the league are all in the Central Division. And I just think whoever comes out of that Central is not going to win the Cup. They're gonna even if the ADS come out of that, the Pacific's terrible, so maybe they get past that. But then someone in the east will have just rolled through and will be feeling healthier and be feeling better at Tampa or, or maybe an upstart team like an Ottawa or someone like that can go and really make a nice run. I just feel like chances are the best team in the NHL is not going to win the championship. And the ADS are so much better than everybody right now. Like they, they are like the Bruins and, you know, they are kind of like the 2013 Blackhawks, who did win the Stanley cup, but I just feel like I'd still take the field because it's really hard to win the Stanley cup, especially in that division.

[Max Bultman]

I think that's actually an interesting point for, like, for the Oilers sake, right? Like, this is a team that we have not been excited about this year. They've started to kind of come on a little bit, but not in a way that you would, like, be like, oh, yeah, here they go.

[Mark Lazarus]

Their first two rounds are going to be cakewalks, potentially, the way the Pacific looks.

[Max Bultman]

And then you get a be Central Division champion, whether it's the AVs or someone else. And maybe the freshness there is enough to tilt it for, you know, two of the best players. Maybe the two, but certainly two of the best players in the world. It's actually an interesting question who maybe I'll use this to kind of transition here less, because I know you have another prediction here about Nathan McKinnon. I wonder if this is the year that we start to put Nathan McKinnon on equal footing as Connor McDavid and not just a strong one B. I.

[Mark Lazarus]

Feel like he's there. I really do feel like he's there. Like he is the runaway MVP favorite at this point. McDavid is still the most talented player in the world. I don't think anyone is going to catch him in that category. I do think Nathan McKanan has been the best player in the world now the last couple of regular seasons. We need to see another extended playoff run to really put him in that. But my prediction for him is he's going to be a plus 100 this year. A plus. He is a plus 50 halfway through the season. The modern record in the. In the 21st century is Johnny Goudreau in 2122 is a plus 64, and McKinnon is already a plus 50. There's only been three plus one hundreds in the history of the NHL, and the most recent one was Wayne Gretzky as an even plus 184, 85. I think on that team, with his ability, he could get to plus 100.

[Jesse Granger]

He's so good. And it's not hard to argue for the AVS to win the Cup. But like, to me, what's different between this AVS team and the Bruins team that was dominant is.

[Mark Lazarus]

Let me guess, it's going to be goaltending.

[Jesse Granger]

No, it's not. That Bruins team had Swayman and Olmark. That was phenomenal. I mean, it. Honestly, it's kind of similar in, like, the cohesion between the two goalies. Like, I don't think there's been a more cohesive goalie tandem since that one until this. This, the Lumber Yard, I think, is what they're calling Blackwood and Wedgwood in Colorado. But to me, what it is is how explosive the abs are. Like, that Bruins team was very good and they scored goals, but they didn't. They weren't quite as high octane. And like, the thing I've been saying lately about the abs, I watch them almost every night, and it's like this team, you always hear coaches saying, we need 60 minutes. We need 60 minutes. The Avs need about five. If they play five good minutes out of 60, they beat you because they will score more goals in those five good minutes than you will in the 55 that you were, like, battling to. Like, I watched it here in Vegas. Vegas was the better team for a lot of the game. But it's like the Avs don't need 20 good minutes or 30 good minutes or 40 good minutes. They only need to be good for about a third of a period. And you are screwed because they score so many goals when they're on. And that, to me, is like, what. It's going to be so hard to knock this team out of the playoffs because even when they have bad games, they still win. And that's why they've got this ridiculous record. And it just. It just feels like I can't remember a team that needs less of its game to go right for it in order for them to win. And it's. It's going to be tough to beat them over four times over seven games.

[Max Bultman]

As you cover the Central Division, I need you to do a story with Brock Nelson about the whiplash from going to those lock it down Islanders teams to this absolutely down your throat Colorado Avalanche team and what that. What the difference is. Like, he's played on both of those two teams. He's been excellent on both of those two teams.

[Mark Lazarus]

Yeah, he's not playing for Barry Trots anymore, is he? It's got to be fun. And Nelson, he's having a spectacular season. His underlying numbers are so good, some of the best league, and he is producing, and I know a lot of people. To go back to the original argument we had on this show, we're talking about that he shouldn't be on the Olympic team. He absolutely belongs on the Olympic team. He's the quintessential bottom six center for an Olympic team that's going to make a run at a gold medal. He's been great.

[Max Bultman]

You got a prediction, Jesse?

[Jesse Granger]

Yes. I talked about it a little bit with Logan Thompson and Team Canada. I'm going to say 2026 is the year of Logan Thompson and the year that we finally put him in the elite category because he's been doing this for a while now. And look, I'm as guilty as anyone. I haven't believed in Logan Thompson. Like I. He has had to prove himself more than most goalies in my eyes, just because of the way he does things. He's very unorthodox. His stance is a disaster technically. Like, like if you, if you go through like what a, what a goalie coach tells you what your stance is supposed to be. Logan Thompson does none of that, but it works like there's more than one way to stop a puck. And this guy I like. Looking back at his time here in Vegas, maybe the Golden Knights made the wrong decision. Like they chose Aiden Hill over Logan Thompson. Aiden Hill won the Cup. Two years later, it's looking like that might have been the wrong decision. And at the time I felt it was the right decision. So I'm, like I said, I'm right there with everyone else who's been doubting this guy basically his whole life. And I'm done doubting him. The he's, he's first or second in goal state above expected, depending on what night you look. He's right up there. He's done it two years in a row. I thought maybe his first year in Washington, maybe he was a little insulated. Okay. It's a one year type wonder. He's doing it a second year in a row. He's been too good for too long. I'm finally ready to say Logan Thompson is one of the elite goalies in the league. I expect him to eventually be Team Canada's top goalie. I think if Team Canada wins a gold, it'll be with Logan Thompson in net. And I think he wins the Vezina because he is just the most consistent. Like the other guys around him just haven't been as consistent as Logan Thompson has.

[Mark Lazarus]

So I just, I just have a.

[Jesse Granger]

Ton of belief that he's going to continue it.

[Mark Lazarus]

That makes me wonder who is the last time, who's the last goalie that we promoted to that elite level. It feels like you've got Heluk, you've got Chesterkin, you've got maybe Sorokin. I'm sure I'm leaving off someone Obviously.

[Jesse Granger]

In Bobrovsky in the regular season.

[Mark Lazarus]

People don't think of him that way, though. I feel like we got a ton of like, Jeremy Swayman types, Thatcher, Demko types, these guys that are really good, but we haven't put in that kind of like, holy triumvirate yet the way we have Hellebok, Shesturkin and Sorokin. What does it take for a goalie to make that leap? Like, Spencer Knight's a guy who's trying to make that leap. There's just tons of guys that are that kind of like to use your tiers, like 1B, 1C, you know, 2A, 2B that aren't quite 1A yet. What does it take for a guy to reach that level?

[Jesse Granger]

To me, it's just consistency. Like, it's. We talk about, like, to me, the best statistic we have for goalies is goal save of expected. And it's so much easier to lose them than it is to gain them. Right? Like, you can play great for a month and then you can undo that entire month with like two bad periods where you give up six goals. And the expected goals was 0.8 goal. And it's like all of a sudden all that work you've done for a month to build it up and like, Hellebuck is the shining example of consistency. The dude is always at the top of the league in goal save of expected. And to me, Logan Thompson, like, is the closest thing we've seen to that other than Hellebach. Like, Igor Shusturkin, to me, is the most talented goalie in the world, but he has off nights, like, where he gives up five and, and three of them were bad. And it's just like. But then the next night, he's amazing. I think he's still the most talented goalie in the league, but to me, Logan Thompson is showing a level of consistency that we haven't really seen from guys other than outside of Hellebok in, in recent history. To me, that's the difference is being able to over month after month after month. Like, those numbers just don't go anywhere. Every morning I check the goal state expected, Logan Thompson's at the top. It's been three years now. Like, I'm ready to just say, okay, that's where he belongs, is at the top.

[Max Bultman]

And season after season too, right? I mean, that. That's. We're not going to give this to a guy who has one outstanding year. We're going to elevate him because he's done it two, maybe Three years in a row because there are so many goalies that we see that can put up a. A 9. 31 year, and then it's at 906 the next.

[Mark Lazarus]

Right.

[Max Bultman]

If Logan Thompson starts stacking those 925s and certainly has a chance to do that, that. That gets him in that territory.

[Mark Lazarus]

I think it's. I think it's real quick. I think it's easier for, like, a Jesper Wallstead or a Yaroslava Scarov to crack that elite category because they're expected to. Right. Like, Logan Thompson was not, like, a huge name to hockey fans, and then he was kind of like this, you know, middling journeyman goalie almost. And it. I think it takes longer for the public to recognize a goalie like that who has made that leap, you know, especially when they're not doing it in Toronto or New York.

[Jesse Granger]

Yeah.

[Max Bultman]

My predictions on Matt Bouldy and early this year, very early, was one of our, like, overreactions or whatever. I think Joe Smith said that Matt Bolley was going to score 50 goals and 50 assists. Well, 50 assists is looking like a little bit of a stretch at this point, although it would only take one good week for him to get back on that track. He is on pace for 50 goals, though. And, guys, I say he does it. I mean, this Minnesota team, since adding Quinn Hughes, only got more dangerous. It's an excellent power play. Matt Bouldy is establishing himself as maybe one of the three or four best wingers in the NHL. I think he's got 50 goals in him, and I think he does it this year.

[Mark Lazarus]

I think I made fun of Joe for making that prediction, too, at the beginning of the year. So I'm eating my words now. He was absolutely right. Boldi is. He is another guy. We talk about taking that leap when you go from a very good player to an elite player. And I think the Olympics could be a really great stage for Matt Boldy to kind of entrench himself. Like, every year, every time there's, like, a tournament like that, somebody steps up and becomes the guy, and it stays that way for the rest of his career. It could be Matt Boldy this year.

[Jesse Granger]

Minnesota was just here in Vegas, and I remember talking to Russo before the game, and he was like, to me, oldie is like, basically in the same category as Caprisov. Like, I see them very similar in terms of how good they are, and I'm just like, whoa, that's.

[Max Bultman]

That's like.

[Jesse Granger]

That's quite the proclamation. And so then during that game. And by the way, Minnesota just steamrolled Vegas in the game. And I'm watching specifically, was watching boldy just because of what Mike said. And I'm like, I want to see. I have a hard time arguing with him after the game. He's. He's the best player on the ice. Every time he steps out there, like, he is so good. I agree with you. It's like we should start considering him. Kind of like the conversation with Thompson, like, he has made a tear jump.

[Mark Lazarus]

Yeah.

[Max Bultman]

All right, lads, you got one more.

[Mark Lazarus]

Sidney Crosby. I don't know if you guys have heard of him. I, I, I want to be here and be ballsy and say, like, he's going to score 50 goals for just the second time in his career, but I'll be a little bit more modest and say he's gonna score 45 goals for the second time in his career. He's got 24 and 41. He's just. Look, I don't have anything new to add about Sidney Crosby. You all know Sidney Crosby. I just feel like we have to mention Sidney Crosby every now and then because he is dragging his team into the fight here. And if that team, if that Penguins team is actually in a playoff push, if they're still in contention in the second half of the year, I think Sidney Crosby is just going to go absolutely ballistic. And I think he can get close to fifth.

[Max Bultman]

I was just going to ask you, if he gets 45, is that enough to get him a wild card spot?

[Mark Lazarus]

It might be in the Eastern Conference. It very well might be, yeah.

[Max Bultman]

I'll say this. If McKinnon delivers on your other prediction, that the 100 plus minus, I will agree to start taking plus minus seriously as a static end.

[Mark Lazarus]

That's.

[Max Bultman]

That's the promise.

[Mark Lazarus]

I don't take it seriously, but, you know, plus 100, you're on a pretty good team, and you're pretty good. And all of his splits, you know, Corey Massacre, old friend, he's always tweeting these ridiculous stats about Nathan McKinnon, and every time I'm like, how is that even possible in the modern NHL for someone to be this dominant? He is just unbelievable.

[Max Bultman]

All right, one more thing I want to get to before we head out here today. Jesse. And that's the Winter Classic. First question here. Did you watch it?

[Jesse Granger]

I did. I mean, it was Sergey Bobrovsky versus Igor Shusterkin. You're gonna. It doesn't matter where they're playing. You're gonna have a hard time keeping me from watching that game. But I always watch the Winter Classic every year. I don't get a whole ton out of it. Like, I will admit that even though I am like, that's just my thing. I. If the Winter Classic's on, I'm going to watch it. But it has lost a bit of its. The specialness that we had early on.

[Mark Lazarus]

Yeah, I've covered six or seven of these because I cover the Blackhawks. So I'm at outdoor games almost every year. As everyone will joke, they are really cool when you're there. I understand the appeal. They are. It's kind of like an All Star game where it's for the local audience, it's for the advertisers, it's for the fans who are there for the whole weekend. There's like a whole thing going around it. It's great. It's terrible television. It always looks bad on TV because the camera angles are wrong. The announcers can't. They're either at ice level or they're a mile away and they can't see what's going on. It's bad tv. I want to see more. I wrote this last year. I want to see more like Lake Tahoe style games in like really cool environments. There's that. There's that lake that's half in the United States and half in Canada. I think it's in Minnesota and Manitoba. Love to see a game there where the red line is the border between the countries. How cool would that be? We always talk about Lake Louise, the national mall in D.C. i want to see that because that's made for a TV audience. That would be cool. But the NHL only cares about the short payday, not the long term vision. And I don't think we're ever going to see it outside of like a football or a baseball stadium. And all football and baseball stadiums kind of look the same whether you're in Nationals park or Busch Stadium or whatever the Marlins Field is called. It just doesn't look that good on tv. It's not that cool. I'd like to see them think a little more outside the box. But it's a big payday and I can't deny it is fun when you're there. I always make fun of like, oh, God, I have another outdoor game to cover. And then you get there. I'm like, this is pretty cool, right? Wrigley Field. It's pretty nice.

[Max Bultman]

Yeah. I think that's where I'm at too, is I'm just having a hard time getting excited to watch one from afar. I didn't watch any of it. I picked the world Juniors over it this year, and I don't regret that. Those were great games. And that was USA Finland that night to lead into it. And then the Canada game was a little more lopsided, but I'm having a harder time getting into. I agree with you, though. So it's for the people who are there. And I love your idea about the border war game. I think that happens. What we need is those teams then do not switch sides in between periods too. The US Team is always defending the US side of the border. And whoever the Canadian team that you would have, they're the Jets. I suppose it probably the jets in.

[Mark Lazarus]

The wild, to be fair. I don't know how logistically feasible it is to have it on an actual lake where people could theoretically die. But it'd be cool to watch.

[Max Bultman]

You don't have to actually do it on that lake. You could just do it along that border. Right. Although I don't know what the. What the situation is, I suppose. But I think that's a great idea. The Tahoe one is the only one of recent memory that I've like, gotten excited to see because of the visuals you have to give the TV viewer. And maybe it is kind of the player matchup, the goalie matchup. Right. I think I could get excited about seeing Macklin Celebrini's first, like, outdoor game at a Winter Classic. And I get Jesse's point. You get Bobrovsky and Shusturkin. That's a good game, period. But when the hockey to me is just not as good as in a building hockey, because the ice is different, the circumstances are different, it makes it a harder sell. It feels more like an exhibition.

[Mark Lazarus]

It doesn't help that the game this year sucked. The game last year really sucked. That a Hawks Blues game was horrible. Like, too often we get a matchup that, you know, it's made for. I mean, Rangers, Panthers should have been better, I suppose, but it just wasn't a good. And you can't predict that. You can't guarantee a great game every time. But if you have a great. If you have a game like the first ever one where you have Sidney Crosby scoring, you know, the shootout winner in the snow that lasts with people. Oh, crappy game. Sometimes you just get a crappy game. That's hockey.

[Jesse Granger]

Yeah. I totally agree that the way to save it is exotic locations of like, just things that pop on the tv. Things that make you say, like, wow, I can't believe they're playing a hockey game right there. And obviously that takes away the audience. You're not going to be able to sell as many tickets. We might just have to wait for the next pandemic. Right? That's the first pandemic. Gave us Tahoe. The only. I mean, that was the only reason they did Tahoe. Of course they wouldn't have done that if, if they could have sold tickets. They.

[Mark Lazarus]

I just don't want another pandemic, Jesse.

[Jesse Granger]

They're like, we can't sell tickets, so we'll do something cool. So we just don't worry, guys. Another pandemic eventually, and then we'll get something cool.

[Max Bultman]

Maybe the answer, though, is the opposite of that. Maybe the answer is that the NHL should tell all of us who just want to watch it on TV to, you know, screw off because it to last. His point, if it's. If you're making the experience for the people who are showing up and you're fitting in four, four times or three times the number of people that can normally go to a game and in cities even, like, you know, I'm sure that they would love for more people in South Florida in. Granted, you know, the Panthers have given them every on ice reason to be hockey fans already, but it's just one more way to get someone in the door to see your product. Maybe that's the answer, is that we need to stop treating it like it's for us.

[Mark Lazarus]

Well, that's right. I've been saying that about All Star games here. I've been to a ton of All Star games and they are really fun. That whole weekend is really fun if you're in town for it. And that's who it's for. And sometimes that's okay.

[Jesse Granger]

Yeah, well, but we already have three outdoor games every year. Like, maybe one of them can be what we're talking about, something for the TV audience to grow the sport on tv. And then you can still do the other two for the local audience.

[Mark Lazarus]

Rational compromises.

[Jesse Granger]

We're doing it three times a year. It's not just the Winter Classic, like it's. They do this. It feels like once a month during the season we have an outdoor game. So just one of them give us something cool on tv.

[Max Bultman]

That's true. The stadium series is in a stadium. And either the Heritage Classic or the Winter Classic could be, you know, on the ponds in a. In a more exciting location.

[Mark Lazarus]

Now you're talking.

[Max Bultman]

Yeah.

[Mark Lazarus]

All right.

[Max Bultman]

That's going to do it for us. Thanks for listening to this episode. Of the Athletic Hockey Show. Sean Sean and Frankie have you covered on Wednesday. We'll have a live reaction after the World Juniors Gold Medal game tonight for the Prospect Series. Talk to you then.

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