The Athletic Hockey Show Prospect Series
Episode: Should Trey Augustine be the Hobey Baker frontrunner?
Date: February 27, 2026

Episode Overview

This episode is a college hockey deep dive focused primarily on one of the sport’s most prestigious honors: the Hobey Baker Award. Hosts Max Bultman, Corey Pronman, and Flow Hockey's Chris Peters—joined by Brad Schlossman of the Grand Forks Herald—untangle the wide-open Hobey Baker race, debate candidates (particularly goaltender Trey Augustine), and analyze the changing landscape of college hockey recruiting and NCAA free agency.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The 2026 Hobey Baker Race: Up for Grabs

[02:23–09:54]

• No Clear Favorite: The panel agrees that this season lacks a standout Hobey candidate, with a mix of veteran leaders and breakout young players in contention.
• Late Risers: New names are making late pushes (e.g., Gavin McKenna, Ethan Wittenbach), highlighting just how fluid the leaderboard is.
• Award Biases:
  • Traditionally favors upperclassmen and top teams.
  • Recent history, however, shows freshmen can win (e.g., Adam Fantilli, Macklin Celebrini).
  • Voters value both statistical dominance and team impact.
• Team Contexts:
  • Wittenbach: Leading scorer, but plays for Quinnipiac—a strong but not top-four team.
  • Trey Augustine: Three-year starter for Michigan State, the nation’s top team; strong-case goalie but faces high bar for his position.
  • Porter Martone: Augustine's teammate, top skater on a top team.
  • Max Plante: Carrying Minnesota Duluth back into the national scene.

Notable Quote:
"It really does feel wide open right now." — Brad Schlossman [03:01]

2. Debating Candidate Credentials

[04:23–13:58]

• Stat Leaders vs. Impact: Wittenbach leads the nation by 9 points but historic precedent and league strength matter (“the threshold for some ECAC guys is higher”).
• Team Success & Player Role: Voters look at how crucial players are to their teams—e.g., Augustine as "best player on the best team", Plante as “the guy that stirs the drink” for Duluth.
• Off-Ice and Discipline: McKenna’s off-ice issues may hurt his Hobey case. Historic incidents (e.g., Adam Fantilli’s penalties) are cited as potentially disqualifying factors.
• Goalie Odds: The threshold for goalies is higher (“If Connor Hellebuyck couldn’t get there with a .950, how is Trey Augustine going to do with .932?” — Chris Peters [05:24]).
  • But recent winner Dryden McKay didn’t lead the nation in save %, showing narrative can trump stats.

Notable Quote:
"Trey Augustine, to your point, this is a player that is playing at the very top of his game. ... He is the biggest reason to me that Michigan State is the favorite ... They don’t have anything without Trey Augustine." — Chris Peters [10:29]

3. Analyst Shortlists: Top 3 Hobey Frontrunners

[14:09–16:18]

• Corey Pronman:
  • 1. Trey Augustine
  • Notes: Lack of a runaway top skater and team ambiguity strengthen Augustine’s case.
• Chris Peters:
  • 1. Trey Augustine
  • 2. Max Plante
  • 3. Michael Hage ("Most impactful player for Michigan, shows up in big moments")
• Brad Schlossman:
  • 1. Trey Augustine
  • 2. Max Plante
  • 3. Eric Polkamp ("16 goals as a D, physical/defensive presence, ‘Baby Buff’ nickname")

Notable Quotes:

• "Michael Hage ... most impactful player for Michigan ... One of the best players I’ve seen in college this year in terms of impact." — Chris Peters [14:16]
• "Eric Polkamp ... 16 goals ... but he's not just an offensive guy ... brings a physical presence ... ‘Baby Buff’ ... he’s had a really impressive season." — Brad Schlossman [15:13]

4. The Evolution of College Hockey: Transfers, CHL Impact, & NIL

[21:00–32:30]

• Rapid Change: Last five years have been transformative—transfer portal, CHL eligibility, NIL money—all upend old recruiting and roster-building norms (“...more in the last five years than there was in the previous 50.” — Brad Schlossman [21:33])
• CHL Migration: Top CHL players (e.g., Verhoeff, Reschni) excel in college, encouraging more to follow; retention high, few opt to return mid-season.
• Player Development Context:
  • Playing in college seen as a step up physically/mentally, improves maturity.
  • Not all CHL-to-NCAA transitions are seamless (e.g., Caden Lindstrom’s mixed results).
• NIL & Money Realities:
  • Only a handful (e.g., Gavin McKenna) make six figures; most college players see little extra cash.
  • Transparency in NIL is much lower in hockey compared to football/basketball—agents may change that in future cycles.

Notable Quotes:

• “If you can’t play in college hockey, what makes you think you can play in the NHL?” — Brad relaying college player perspective [27:44]
• "A half a percent of college hockey players are getting [$100K]." — Brad Schlossman [29:35]

5. How Money is Reshaping Recruiting

[32:30–39:38]

• Blue Bloods Have Most Resources: Big Ten (esp. Michigan) can offer the best NIL packages; “everything else”—even top programs like Boston College—get a fraction.
• You Don’t Need Superstars to Win: Western Michigan’s championship run cited as example—no elite prospects, but great team.
• Big Contracts as Program Changers: Penn State's Gavon McKenna signing is about raising the program profile, not just one player's impact.

Notable Quotes:

• "If these schools are spending tons and tons of money and they're not getting over the hump, ... do they say, what are we doing?" — Corey Pronman [36:30]
• "The arguments for whether you stay or go to college have largely not changed. Unless you are a major outlier like a Gavin McKenna..." — Chris Peters [33:53]

6. College and International Free Agent Watch

[42:13–56:09]

• NHL Prospects from NCAA/Europe:
  • Alexei Pinchuk (Dynamo Minsk): Only “sure thing” pro among international free agents (big, skilled wing, likely NHL 3rd-liner).
  • College Standouts:
    • Tyson Gross (St. Cloud State): Top NCAA free agent; checks multiple boxes (size, skating, scoring).
    • Josh Ernesy (Michigan): Massive, physical, projects as an NHL depth forward.
    • Lawton Saager (Northeastern): Top goalie in the NCAA free agent market.
• Role Players vs. Elites:
  • Most NCAA FAs who earn contracts end up as bottom-six/platoon options, not top-six stars.
  • Size, skating, and ability to kill penalties highly valued.
• Names to Know: Jake Levinovich, Ellis Rickwood, Grant Slickinski, Hayden Hennan, Lucas Wallen, among others, are highlighted as key NCAA prospects with NHL interest.

Notable Quotes:

• "Ernesy is huge and can skate and is physical too ... That profile projects much more into a bottom of the lineup role in the NHL." — Corey Pronman [46:59]
• "You already have your first-round draft picks that play top six, right? ... Who can play that third and fourth line role." — Brad Schlossman [51:02]

Memorable Moments & Quotes

• Augustine’s Case:
  • “They don’t have anything without Trey Augustine. I’m telling you right now, he is the biggest difference-maker in the country.” — Chris Peters [10:29]
• On CHL Player Adaptation:
  • “If college hockey is too hard, good luck in the NHL.” — via Brad Schlossman [27:44]
• New Era of NCAA Hockey:
  • “Massive change after massive change for each of the last five years, and coaches have really had to adapt on the fly ... dizzying amount of change.” — Brad Schlossman [21:33]
• On College Free Agent Realism:
  • “That is the market of the, of the college free agent.” — Max Bultman [56:09]

Timestamps for Important Segments

• College Hockey Deep Dive Begins: [02:23]
• Hobey Baker Field Breakdown: [03:01–13:58]
• Panel’s Hobey Top 3: [14:09–16:18]
• Changing College Landscape (Transfers, CHL, NIL): [21:00–39:38]
• Free Agent Watch (NCAA/International): [42:13–56:09]

Closing Thoughts

This episode paints a comprehensive picture of a transformative moment in college hockey—not just in terms of awards, but in how programs recruit, retain, and develop players amid new transfer rules, increased player movement, and the advent of NIL deals. The Hobey Baker race encapsulates this uncertainty, with no clear frontrunner and heated debate over what voters will value most. The conversation closes with an in-depth look at the free agent landscape, underscoring that for most players, fit and development matter more than big dollar deals.

Panel:

• Max Bultman (The Athletic)
• Corey Pronman (The Athletic)
• Chris Peters (Flow Hockey)
• Brad Schlossman (Grand Forks Herald, guest)

For further details, read Corey Pronman’s college/international free agent rankings at The Athletic.