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Savings with three plus lines include third line free via monthly bill credits. Credit stop if you cancel any lines. Qualifying credit required. Hey, it's Paige desorbo from Giggly Squad and we're partnering with Abercrombie for the launch of their new spring denim collection. This episode is sponsored by Abercrombie. Make Abercrombie denim the core of your capsule wardrobe because denim should feel like this. Abercrombie's 90s inspired fits are better than vintage and the pair you need right now is the wide leg jean. It's lightweight, it's effortless and elevates any outfit. Every pair available in both classic and Curve. Love the the viral fit that eliminates waist gap. It's easy to find your perfect pair, so shop Abercrombie Denim in the app, online and in stores.
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Amazon Pharmacy presents painful thoughts 20 more minutes to kill in the pharmacy before my prescription is ready. Maybe I'll grab some deeply discounted out of season Halloween candy. I never had a chocolate pumpkin with raisins before. Those were raisins, right? Next time use Amazon Pharmacy. We deliver. And no, those were not raisins. Amazon Pharmacy Healthcare just got less painful. This is the athletic hockey show. Foreign.
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Hey everybody. Max Boltman here alongside Mark Lazarus and Rob Rossi for another episode of the Athletic Hockey Show Fun show on tap. Today we're going to be talking about which teams we consider true contenders to win the Stanley cup feels very relevant as we approach the trade deadline. We could probably talk about some teams that maybe can get themselves into this mix, but we've got eight teams here that we, that we think can win the Stanley cup, and the first is obvious. It's the Colorado Avalanche.
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A
Well, it's funny because, you know, like a month ago we were talking about how there's only one or two really good teams in the NHL, right? And there's, and then it's just a bunch of like, kind of middling mess and this, this whole like, Atlantic Explosion and the Pacific Explosion, all of a sudden there's some actual delineation there. There might not be a delineation between the, the, the buyers and the sellers just yet, but the true Contenders versus the kind of like just hoping to get in and make some noise teams. We're starting to see that. And you're right. It's Colorado, right? I mean, they started like we already. I think we feel like you forgot about this. They started out the year 31, 2 and 7, half the regular season. They had two regulation losses. I don't care that they've lost six of their last night. They have nothing to play for. They are on absolute cruise control which championship teams do and it will make them better. I'm not one of these people that thinks you have to be peaking at the right time. You have to do that if you're a new team to this. The Colorado Avalanche are not new to this. They know how to find the switch. They know how to flip it. They are cruising in. You know, I was skeptical going into this year. I didn't believe in the goaltending. Wedgwood and Blackwood have proved me wrong. I did not believe in the Brock Nelson signing after watching him perform against Dallas last year in the playoffs. But he is exactly the two. See, they've needed really since Nazem Kadri left. Marty Naches is putting up Mikko Rant in the numbers. Nathan McKinnon is like, he's. He's just coasting. He's going to have 60 goals. I mean, they have no holes. This is the only team in the NHL that has no holes.
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B
Yeah, I mean, I agree on, on Nelson and nature's wholeheartedly. I. I'm actually at the point where I'm ready to consider Nathan McKinnon at unlevel ground with Connor McDavid. I. I don't even. I might put Nathan McKinnon above him on some nights. I mean, I. I think he's as dangerous as it gets. He's as complete as it gets. Am I crazy for saying that, Rob?
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C
Well, I mean, he has one thing Connor McDavid would love. I don't know if that would, you know, outdoes all of that stuff. Look, I think. I think, think Connor McDavid is one of the three most gifted hockey players that's ever lived. So I think it depends on how you want to view on, you know what right now, McKinnon and McDavid, I think are next level where whoever's won in that discussion, I think, you know, it's personal preference. I have a harder time than you guys with the Avalanche because all the things last said, I still want to see it happen in a playoff series against really good teams. I want to see that goaltending hold up. I want to see the, the depth scoring hold up. Because what's, what's happened is it's, it's not been McKinnon and McCarr in the past. It's been, you know, the other factors. And here's the reality, right? The Avalanche, along with the Dallas Stars and Minnesota Wild exist in this world where one of them is going to probably have to get by the other two to get out of that division. And similar to the, somewhat similar to the Eastern Conference where there's like one team, maybe two, depending on what you think of Florida, if they get healthy. But like you're looking at the whole other division and going well, does that actually benefit them in the playoffs? But because we've seen it right, Edmonton's had an easier road the last two years to get to the Stanley cup final than anybody that comes out of that powerhouse division. But yeah, I think what we've seen from the NHL all year is parody has arrived. Whether you want to say that's parody or mediocrity is depending on your point of view, I will say the latter. But what it has allowed for the first half of the season, I think was all of these teams to sort of be bunched up, except for maybe three or four. Now there's probably like you guys said, probably eight, I would say maybe five that I would say are true contenders, but are not true contenders of teams you can see winning the Cup. But I would just say this about McKinnon. I think he has a little bit more of a killer instinct on his team than the Oilers do. And I don't put that against McDavid. I just think the Avalanche have that thirst to end you more than the Oilers do. And they also don't have Tristan Jariel.
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At the risk of Rob ripping off his Cosby sweater and revealing a 66 black and gold jersey underneath, Connor McDavid is the most talented hockey player that's ever lived. And anyone who says otherwise is kidding themselves. I love Mario Lemieux. Don't get me wrong. I saw him play in his prime. I know how good he was. There's never been an athlete quite like Connor McDavid. That said, it is conceivable that Nathan McKinnon is a more well rounded player, that he can do things that Connor McDavid can't, while McKinnon can do a lot of the things that Connor McDavid can. Right? Like Connor McDavid doesn't have the physicality of anything McKinnon he doesn't have the menace of a Nathan McKinnon. The killer instinct, as Rob said, of a Nathan McKinnon. I think Connor McDavid is indisputably the most talented player in the world. Most talented player we've ever seen. But I do think that right now Nathan McKinnon might be a better hockey player.
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B
Yeah, if the scoring is level. That's where you start to go to those other things. Right. That's always been the big differentiator for McDavid is. Yeah, you might be able to find a guy who's a little better than him in this area or this area. But he outscores the field by 30 points. It's not the case anymore. McKinnon is right there with him and he has those other elements. I think it's close. I think it's, you know, it's, it's 1A and 1B in somewhere.
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Oh yeah. No. Nobody's like trying to slag one of these guys down. They're both amazing. Come on.
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Yeah. Our friends at BETMGM do still have the Avalanche as a pretty clear favorite here. It's +220 to win the Stanley Cup. I'm willing to have the debate though for the next team on this list, which is the Tampa Bay Lightning. They have it plus 600. I, I think Tampa Bay has made a very compelling case that they should at least be less of a gap between them and the Avalanche. They're, they're rolling. I mean they're as hot as it gets in the NHL right now. Dominant since late December. They had won 11 in a row. At one point they had a 15 game point streak that just ended on Saturday. No Andre Vasilevsky in that. I'm almost willing to give them a pass on that. I, I, I think they're, they're, they're an excellent team.
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Does Nikita Kucherov being a winger preclude him from this conversation? Because just ridiculous. He is just quietly marching to 140 point season. He has 10 three point games in his last 37 games. Three of them are four point games and one of them is a five point game. He is like a guaranteed multi point game every single night. He's doing it on teams that are not as deep really as Colorado and maybe Dallas is even, or even Edmonton for that matter. He doesn't have quite the weapons to work with. What Tampa is doing is incredible. They don't just have a 15 game point streak that just ended up. They were 14. Oh and 1. This wasn't like they were 9 and 06 or something like that. They are just dominating right now. They're doing it without Ryan McDonough. They're doing it without Victor Headman. I'm just saying, look, this is the best defensive team in the league. They give up nothing, absolutely nothing. Can as the has the Anaheim Ducks resurgence here move the narrative back to Joel Quinville for lazy voters for the Jack Adams? Or can we finally give John Cooper his flowers?
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It probably is John Cooper and I think the blue line's a big reason. It is simultaneously a big reason why John Cooper deserves clear coach of the Year honors. And my one hesitance about them because the the blue line is being propped up by guys that just don't have the track record right. Darren Radish has been a good defenseman for the Lightning in recent years. Point per game player with Victor Hebman out this year. J.J. moser, I'm buying that one. He was the key piece in the circuit. Chev trade one of their most important players. Huge minutes, huge territorial share. But like Charles Edwards, Charl Edward Destu spent the last three years in Europe. He is now logging 19 minutes a night for the Lightning at a 59. Expected goal share. I remember when this guy was in the red wing system between like their ECHL team and their AHL team. All of a sudden he's now playing close to 20 minutes a night for one of the best teams in the NHL. I'm both amazed. Like it's a scouting masterclass by the Lightning. It's a coaching masterclass by the Lightning and a little nervous about what it will look like come April and May.
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Rob it's tougher for me to, to really give a a strong endorsement of the Lightning because they've actually looked really pedestrian against Pittsburgh this year. And I don't think Pittsburgh's that great. But I might end up being wrong on that. Based off what we've seen from them, I don't know that they're great, but they might be a little better than I thought. I will say this about the Lightning. I just. If the Florida Panthers aren't in the playoffs, yes, it should be a cakewalk. There's no world in which I see them winning a seven game series against the Panthers. We know how that is. We know how that's going to go. It's going to go the way of the Panthers turning it into something that isn't about hockey. And the Lightning showing they can't resist that and they can't handle that. And so I, I think they're the best team in the east right now. But I just. The difference between the east and the west is so enormous. And at least those top teams in the Avalanche Division have to play each other. At least the Vegas Golden Knights. And on any night you get Edmonton, you have to deal with one of the best players in the world. You're just not seeing that level of competition from the East. It remains fairly described as a, you know, tire fire that's been swallowed by a sinkhole as a conference. And, you know, unless you really think the Buffalo Sabers are going to cause some threat to the Lightning in a playoff series or something like that, I just. Until they show in a seven game series that they can get past what Florida does to them, I just don't think they're a Stanley cup contender.
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If, if Florida does get into the playoffs here and unless they're like WC2, then chances are Tampa is going to face. I guess if they are, then Tampa is going to face them early on. And we don't know if Barkov will be back. Barkov might be back at some point. If the Panthers go on a run, I will take Tampa all day, every day against these Florida Panthers without Sasha Barkov at the top of their lineup every single time. I think that Tampa Bay has a much easier path because of what you're saying about the East. The east has a lot of pretty good teams, right? The west has a lot of garbage teams, but the west also has the best teams. So Tampa Bay's Pat, they don't have to face Colorado, they don't have to face Dallas, they don't have to face Minnesota, they don't have to face Edmonton, they don't have to face Vegas. All they have to face is Carolina. Really. And Carolina is not a team that's proven that they can do it yet.
- [12:23]
C
No, I agree with that. I just don't think they can beat Florida in a series. Now they'll get a chance to prove me wrong even without Barkov. But it's just the way, look at the regular season games between the teams, right? Like the, the Panthers got to get under the. Huh?
- [12:36]
A
Florida's got to get in.
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That's what I'm saying. If the, if Florida gets in, I can't take the Lightning as such a prohibitive favorite in the East. But, but if, if Florida doesn't get in, I don't know who's taking four of seven from the Lightning because I don't think the east has a bunch of pretty good teams. I just think they have a bunch of teams that have similar points because none of them are very good.
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Let's go to the Florida Panthers here because we're talking about them already. They're outside the playoffs right now. They've got work to do. But I think they've earned the benefit of the doubt to think that they're going to get in. They've. They've managed as much as any team has managed thus far to be in this conversation. Playing without Alexander Barkov, playing a lot of the season without Matthew Kachuk. They've had guys step up. Sam Bennett on pace for a career year. Anton Lindell on pace for a career year. Brad Marchand turning back the clock. They're there. I think that they can absolutely beat the Lightning. They could beat anyone in a playoff series. They've shown us that two years in a row. But the question is, can they get there to the finish line at the end of mid April in a playoff.
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Spot without Sasha Barkov?
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Yes.
- [16:27]
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I mean that, that's, that's what I'm saying. I. Nobody's going to bet against the Florida Panthers in the playoff series at this point. Nobody's that stupid. But can they get in? That's the biggest thing. And when they get in, will they be completely spent? Unlike the last couple of years where they kind of, you know, their first year they had to scramble to get into the playoffs and they made that kind of miracle run to the Stanley cup final. But the last couple of years they've been on cruise control. They've been what Colorado is now, where they've been able to kind of conserve energy and rest up and get themselves mentally ready for the playoffs without exhausting themselves in March and April. This year they're going to exhaust themselves in March and April. But unlike that first run, they've had 12 rounds of playoffs the last three years under the at some point you could ask Chicago, you could ask Tampa Bay. This stuff catches up to you at some point. You can't just keep doing this forever. So I believe in the Florida Panthers, but I'm also really skeptical of their chances of even getting into the playoffs at this point.
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C
Yeah, I'll say this. I covered the Penguins teams that went the back to back finals winning 1 in 0809 when they were really young. I covered them when they were in their primes and did it back to back years in 60, 17. Laz is absolutely right. The, the extended playoff runs, once you start reaching the conference final repeatedly, let alone going to three straight final series like the Panthers done, that does that, does it take something out of you in a way that you're not aware until you need it. I will say this. Do I think the Panthers have enough to get to the Stanley cup final this year without Barkov? No, I don't. Do I think they could sort of rally to end the Lightning's run in the second round and that be their sort of proverbial pound of flesh? Yes, I think they can do that. I think they can. I think they have enough to do something like that. More. More than win the championship without Barkov.
- [18:11]
B
There's one position where I think that toll is strongest and that's in net. We've seen it with Sergey Bobrovski this year. It's an.875 save percentage so far. It's going to be very hard for them to get into the playoffs with him performing like that. And obviously Seth Jones being out doesn't help. You like to think that a guy like Bobrovsky is going to be able to turn it on, but that workload for him has been as strong as it is on anyone. And I think that's the biggest place you're seeing.
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A
The toll would have helped having Brandon Bussey behind him right now, wouldn't it?
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Brandon Bussey. Let's go to the Carolina Hurricanes. Plus 8:50. We talked about Bussey. He's been as good a story as I think there is in the league right now. Otherwise, Carolina is pretty much just Carolina. I don't think there's anything surprising here. Anyone's opinion changed by even a percent on Carolina since the start of the season.
- [18:54]
A
I was just in Raleigh on Thursday for the Blackhawks game there and it's just like it's. No matter what year you watch the Carolina Panthers, the Carolina Hurricanes, it look exactly the same. They are fast, they are incredible on the forecheck. They're quite good and you still don't believe them. Like Freddie Anderson and goal. No thanks. Brandon Bussey, maybe. I mean we've been talking for years that if they only got a goalie they'd be able to do something. Auntie Ronta wasn't the guy. Freddie Anderson's never been the guy. Can it be Brandon Bussey? They're selling Bus Stop T shirts in the. In the lounge. Everyone's going nuts for this guy. Is jerseys everywhere in Raleigh right now. They believe they're talking contract extension already. The sample size. You read Jesse Granger story, the sample size is starting to get there. This isn't like a fluky looking thing. This seems like a real goalie. But again, can he do it in the playoffs? The same thing we Always ask about the Hurricanes, and we still don't know if they can score enough, and we still don't know if they can save enough in the playoffs. And until they prove us otherwise, you know, it's like the Dallas Stars. It's like shame on us for keeping, for believing every year.
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C
Yeah, I think there is an element of that. Although I will say, though, that at least with the Stars, there seems to be one team they can't get past, and that's the Edmonton Oilers, where it doesn't seem to matter who the Hurricanes play. The deeper they go into the playoffs, they run into the same thing. They don't have game breakers. Whether you want to call it. Like my colleague Josh. Yo. He does the superstar element or just the game breaker. And Elijah saw this with those Blackhawk teams. I saw the Penguins teams I covered. I think it's fair to question some of the other teams we're talking about. Do they have those guys that in that moment makes that play that's, that tilts a series that wins you a game, that makes a game out of a game that shouldn't be, that steals you a game that, that just rips your heart out? And I just.
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Sebastian Ajo is not that guy and not that guy.
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Now, maybe this is the year where if Florida doesn't get in and Tampa trips up, there just aren't enough good teams that, that's a factor. But, like, I just don't see it from them. They don't have. And their system doesn't allow for it. Right. The, the beauty of the, of the Hurricanes is that they, they roll four lines. They're on top of you with that four check and they just suffocate you. And that's great until every game becomes 2 to 1 in the playoffs and you need somebody to do something exceptional and they don't have that.
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B
Yeah. I'll say this. Like, I've never noticed Nikola Ehlers less than I did when Carolina was in Detroit the other day. Like, he, he goes there, he's part of the system, numbers are still there. He just doesn't look like the same constant threat that he did in Winnipeg. And there is kind of this assimilation factor in Carolina where whatever you are, you're going to be what they are. And there's something beautiful about that. But it's also like, it's hard to see where that changes. And it seems like they're kind of always around every superstar and I think they kind of are aware that they're going to need that game breaker. But I almost wonder like, there's, there's almost only one tier of player that can transcend their system. It seems like, like, yeah, if you got a McKinnon or a McDavid in there, obviously, but everyone else just seems to kind of absorb to the mass of the Carolina Hurricane.
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C
I don't think the coach wants it, do you. Do you last. Do you think that coach wants that type of player? I don't think he does.
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They have a very specific system. And one of the knocks on Rob Rindemore year after year in the playoffs is he refuses to adjust as a playoff series goes on. Great coaches adjust in Games 5, Games 6 and 7. Brinder Moore is like, this is what we do. This is what we're going to continue to do. And it works, you know, 95% of the time, but it's not working in those big moments against those teams that do have those game breakers. And I had this thought, I was talking to Ben Popa the Sun Times while we were watching the game. I turned to him like, is it just horrible to play for the Carolina Hurricanes? Like, is it just because, like, what they do is so effective and it works and I love it in a lot of ways and I think it's great. But it must be so exhausting to play for the Hurricanes. You are constantly just. It's like being in a full court press 48 minutes the entire game. And it does kind of squelch a little of the creativity that hockey players pride themselves on. So if you are a Jake Gensel, if you are a Mikko Rantnen, a guy who can be a game breaker, I can sort of understand why. You know what? I don't love this. This works. This is effective. This makes mediocre players good and good players very good, but it doesn't make great players superstars. And I'm wondering just how it's so demanding and it doesn't seem all that fun.
- [23:05]
B
Yeah. All right, so they're plus 850 via BetMGM. Right there with them is Vegas, and Vegas just made the splash trade for Rasmus Anderson. They were my preseason pick to win the cup anyway. I certainly think they're a team that can win the Stanley Cup. They're getting hot leading up to the Anderson trade. The question is, are they a deep enough team to overcome, if they're stars, Mitch Marner, some injuries on the back end, and most importantly, if they're goaltending, which has not been there this year, do not rise to a premier level.
- [23:34]
A
That'S What I don't buy, I don't buy them because of the goaltending. I mean Carter Hart was obviously not the answer. You know, Aiden Hill hasn't looked good since coming back from what was it, the groin injury. That's a huge. They're going to face Edmonton in the second round probably right. And I like Connor McDavid and LeAndre Seidel against those goalies. I just, I have no faith in this, this Vegas team, you know, from in front of the goal forward is an absolute cup contender but I don't think they can win with those, with those goalies right now.
- [24:03]
B
And I just look at the lineup and like, like the bottom six forwards. Yeah, you got Tomas Hurdle on the third line. That's really good. If you look at the names and their bottom six, Brendan Bowman or Braden Bowman, Cole Reinhardt, Tanner Lesinski, like these are not household names. These are not guys that you feel like go toe to toe with some of the true third line, true contenders third lines right now and make you feel good about the matchup. The star power is awesome. Mark Stone, pro, if he's healthy for the full season should probably be getting heart love like he's outscoring Macklin Celebrini on the rate stats while also being an elite defensive player. Jack Eichel is Jack Eichel, right. But you're going to need Mitch Marner, Jack Eichel, Mark Stone to be all world because the depth after all the spending they've done just really isn't there. Rob?
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C
Yeah, I just, look, I think they're in a situation where a lot of the great, a lot of the successful franchises have been when you have a core, even if you supplement it or add to it or change it when you still have that situation where you have so many guys counting so much against the cap. I think it's going to be a couple years before they have the depth again that I would trust them in a series against a team that like Colorado or Dallas or Minnesota. But the, the problem there is yeah again it's the Edmonton thing, right. Whoever wins that presumed second round series is, is probably going to get a battered Minnesota, Colorado or Dallas. And that does changes, that does change things. The thing I don't understand, the thing I don't love about the Golden Knights this year is this. It's hard every year to go for it every year to make splash moves and retain the sense of culture that you had when you win. And I think we are seeing a little bit of that. They've, they've they've just made so many of these big moves every year that I think it's difficult to just plug that culture in again. Laz, you saw this in Chicago, I saw it in Pittsburgh. It's great that you're, you're in on that big fish every year, but, but sometimes you have too many big fish and it changes the waters. And I do wonder if we're seeing a little bit of that and if that will, if that will be a difference in maybe a seven game series when you need to call on some of that intangible stuff.
- [26:21]
A
I will say this. To go into Toronto and win on Mitch Marner night after a couple of kind of male losses, I think was Philly and Boston they lost to. That was a statement game. That's as big a regular season game as you're going to have. The emotions behind that game are real. And when you rally around a teammate who's facing that kind of a night and you go out and you win on the road like that, that's as close as you can come to a playoff game in the regular season. And Vegas was very impressive to me that night. I think that's. Yeah, we shouldn't sleep on the significance of that win.
- [26:48]
B
You talked about the team they're gonna have to go through. That's the Edmonton Oilers. And what amazes me about the Oilers, no, they have not been particularly impressive all season. Their longest win streak is actually just two games. If you can believe it, they've had a couple four out of five. So it's not like a truly, you know, indicative stat, but no more than two in a row. And to me, this is a team that has shown us that they can get scorching, scorching hot. Last year they had a 15, 4 and 1 stretch. The year before that they won 16 in a row. I do think it's coming. And the terrifying thing for the rest of the NHL is what if it happens right around mid April and they get this scorching red hot? No, it's not as deep of a team as we saw the last two years. I get that. But we know it's in there. We know they have the stars, they've had the same long playoff runs Florida has. And that's going to be an interesting thing to monitor. But this is a team that can get as hot as any team in the league. And if it happens at the right time, look out.
- [27:36]
A
Am I the only one who wants to see a, an Oilers capital Stanley Cup Final after what we saw on Saturday Night, I mean, oh my God. Well, that's as good as a regular season game as you're going to get. What's it, six to five? McDavid Dry, Seidel and Bouchard in overtime? It's not even fair. Look, everything you just said about The Oilers is 100% correct. They are still, in my mind the scariest team out there. They're scarier than Colorado, they're scarier than Florida, they're scarier than Tampa Bay because they do have two guys, not just one, but two guys who can completely take over a series. Leon Draisaitl has single handedly won series in the past, did it on one leg. And Connor McDavid, we know, has single handedly won series in the past. So when you have both those guys, anything is possible. Still, you trust the goaltending. We keep coming back to this. Tristan Jari doesn't get to play Vancouver every night. When he plays good teams, he looks like Tristan Jariel and Connor Ingram. He's looked pretty good lately, but there's no track record there. How could you have any confidence with so much riding on it with Connor McDavid taking the short term deal and saying, show me we can win. And for that to be your goaltending duo going into the playoffs, I don't know how you can feel good about that.
- [28:40]
C
Yeah, I mean, look, this might be recency bias. Their performance against Pittsburgh at home the other night was, was really alarming. I know they, I know they beat the Capitals and more power to them, but that wasn't exactly a defensive showcase either. And look, I guess, yeah, you trust that they've done it before, but I mean, you know, if getting Malkin was stealing pucks off of Connor McDavid and winning races on for a breakaway, that that shouldn't be happening for either player at this point in their game. I still question whether McDavid has the, has the, the elements in his game or the willingness in his game to, to play the type of hockey that will win in the playoffs while also scoring. That's, that's being very unfair. The beauty of the teams I covered in Pittsburgh was they were good enough for Sidney Crosby enough to do a lot of scoring in the Stanley cup final to win, but they also had much better goaltending. Again, I just, at one point they're going to get beat in the first round despite their star power because the goaltending just wasn't good enough to overcome even like the LA Kings or whoever they play. And, and then I think they're going to have to answer some of those hard questions. I wonder if that's this year.
- [29:52]
A
Well, I mean, I mean you kind of alluded that it wasn't fair. It's really not fair because Conor McDavid has won a whole bunch of playoff rounds, often single handedly come to a Game 7. But at the same time you're right, like it's at some point that's going to run out and you can't keep playing that way and you can't rely on one guy. I mean, yes, he's got what, 21 goals in his last 27 games. He's unbelievable. As we were talking about the most gifted hockey player the world has ever seen. But he doesn't have the team around him. They are so top heavy on that team and they've never learned a lesson. Instead of like fixing the depth, they're just putting band aids here and there and trying to get another mediocre goalie to replace their other mediocre goalie. And they never have fundamentally addressed the root of the problem, which is the lack of depth and the over reliance on those two guys. It's just hard to believe in them when it's the same thing. Connor McDavid can do it. He has come so close. He got into a game seven almost by himself. All he needs is one more win. But how many times can he do that before his back just gives out?
- [30:53]
C
And let me rephrase, let me just to be clear because I don't want people to take it like I'm anti Connor. I think it would be a fair and just world if Conor McDavid didn't have to be, you know, some mix of Superman and Hercules in a playoff series offensively and do all the other stuff. But if you look at the great players throughout history, they've pretty much been asked to just dominate the scoring. The Gretzky's, the Lemieux, the, the, the Joe Sakic, the. Those guys didn't have to. I'm talking like, you know, guys you think of as made these long runs. You know, Jonathan Toews is different but you know, as Patrick Kane wasn't asked to be a two way hockey player on those Blackhawks teams when they were winning.
- [31:35]
A
That doesn't mean they also had Marion Hosa and Patrick Sharp and Duncan Keith and Brent seabrook. That's what McDavid doesn't have.
- [31:41]
C
Right? All those teams had depth. The Oilers don't have the depth. So then the difference is the goaltending. You just can't tell Me that the move they made made them any better in goal. It didn't.
- [31:55]
A
It made them different, that's all. It's like, let's just move the deck chairs around here on the Titanic and see how it goes.
- [32:01]
B
We got two more teams on our list of eight. First. First one on the based on the BET MGM ads. The BET MGM gives the stars plus 1700. Man, I know the roster is amazing. You come into this year every year. I think for the past four or five years they've been a team that can win the Stanley Cup Last. I think you've picked them to be the team to win the Stanley cup in several of those. I am getting nervous about the Dallas Stars with how they've been lately.
- [32:24]
A
They're too power play dependent, right? Like it's almost inexplicable how they can't seem to score it 5 on 5 at a regular basis given what they have. But what if they go out and they add our Tammy Panera? What if Jim Neal puts that and then your top six is.
- [32:36]
B
Yeah, that's not powerful.
- [32:36]
A
Jason Robertson, Wyatt Johnston, Miko Ranton, rope hints, Matt Duchenne. That's just your top six. And you still got, you know, Haskin in and Harley on the back end. You still got Jay Gottener. I know he hasn't been his usual self and this is a team, another team that doesn't really care about the regular season that much. We know that it's hard to put too much stock into it, but if they can go out and add one more dynamic winger, man, if you can get Sam Steele out of your top six and replace it with an Artemi Panarin and Jim Neal, you know, is going to try to do that, I might get suckered into it again.
- [33:06]
B
I look at it a little different. I think it's more of a third line ad. I don't think that they need another guy who can, you know, sit on the flank on the power play and, you know, make passes through the seam. I think they need a third line player, maybe a third line center and maybe that's Tyler Sagan when he gets back. I don't know. But I think it's going to be someone who can change their dynamic of how they're going to need to score, score around the net. I think they have guys like Jason Robertson and Miko Ranton who can do damage for them on the power play and they have guys who can score even strength too. They're just not doing it as often as they need to. But I Think it's more of a third line center type that they need.
- [33:39]
A
Yeah. You put a Vincent Trojek on that third line where he's your fifth or sixth best player instead of your second or third best player like he is in New York and it changes things.
- [33:47]
B
Absolutely.
- [33:47]
A
They just need scoring. They need more scoring, more guys that consistently can score that aren't, you're right, power play dependent and that can score in the hard areas because that's, you know, Jason Robertson can score around the net, but the rest of their guys are kind of, you know, there's some skill involved there that they need a little space and little room to work their magic. It can't just be Robertson and Ranton and you need more help than that. I think Trocheck, as producer Chris just alluded to in our chat here, that might be a Panera, is a sexier ad. Trocheck, you're right. It might be the kind of ad that actually fundamentally changes the complexion of the team.
- [34:18]
C
Trochecks make. Makes the Stars much more likely to get past the Minnesota Wild in round one than Panarin does. In my mind, I think he's just the type of player that would more likely contribute in a series that I think Minnesota would want to turn that into. You know, I have picked the Stars every year this decade to come out of the west. So I'm sure by saying I don't think they can means that they will. But it's a, you know, it's a little bit like we were talking about Edmonton. Right. You know, show me what's different. Show me what's different. And you know, the Colorado Avalanche have shown me so far this season what's different from their previous teams. Right. Their depth is a lot better. Their goaltending is a lot better. The Detroit Red Wings are showing us what's different, but Dallas just hasn't. And I, they, they seem to just be on the wrong end of being a great team at a time when there was also Colorado and Edmonton and you know, those teams seem to have each other's numbers in a way. But the Minnesota thing throws a monkey wrench into this whole thing because I think that is the type of team, despite not having done it in the playoffs, is uniquely built for seven game series and, and they probably get the stars at the time when they are healthiest or at least freshest are the.
- [35:46]
A
Wild built for a second with, with. With what they have down the middle. I look, I Love Joel Erickson Ek but he's not a 1C. Neither is Ryan Hartman. I mean, you see time after time the teams that win championships are strong down the middle. Minnesota is fabulous on the wings. They've got a great defensive core now, especially with Quinn Hughes joining Brock Faber. They've got excellent goaltending though. They have to prove it in the playoffs. Still, they, we haven't seen it from those guys yet. They just don't have it down the middle. I don't think that's a team built to win a seven game series just yet. Not against a team like Dallas.
- [36:14]
C
See, I think the opposite. I think Dallas might be the one team they are built to win a seven game series against because I think they're so strong in the other areas that Dallas not being able to score at 5 on 5 is going to be a real challenge. Even if Minnesota doesn't have the great scoring centers, I, I suspect Minnesota is going to try to address something about one of the, you know, one of the centers. I don't know what you can do though because there's so many teams in it right now. I don't know what the deadlines, the deadline deals are going to be, but either way, are they, are either of those teams beating Colorado if they, if they take each other to a seven game holy war and then they get the Avalanche in the next round? I think that's the question too. That's. It's why it's so hard to have this discussion because you have to assume one of those two teams is going to emerge. But what version of that team will emerge against Colorado if Colorado gets by?
- [37:03]
B
For what it's worth, the wild sides are plus 1800. Funny enough. I think they need the same player we just talked about for Dallas. I think they need a Vincent Trocheck, obviously. Yeah, you'd love the Robert Thomas. You'd love the higher end version. They don't have anywhere near the capital to go after that. After what they had to give up to get Quinn Hughes, they might have just enough to chase Vincent Trocheck and I think he would transform. I love Eric Sinek. I think he's a great player. I think he's at least comparable to Rope Hints, different profiles. But I think in terms of overall impact, like the heaviness that Heck brings the way he scores around the net. Yeah, you love Hints of skating. Uh, he, he could probably be a higher point producer than Joel Erickson Ek, but I think Erickson's excellent. And if you had Erickson Ek, TRO check and then Hartman, I mean Dallas's star power is good. Minnesota's is almost as good as any team in the league at this point. Between Caprizov, Quinn, Hughes.
- [37:47]
A
Yeah, it's still not Barkov, Bennett, Lundell, Nosek down the middle though. It's not anywhere close to what it. It's not McDavid and Draisaitl down the middle. It just doesn't compare. And look, I feel like the Wild had this like almost unfair reputation as a really good defensive team. They're a terrible defensive team. They give up more scoring chances than just about anybody outside of the fun and gun Ducks. Like, this is a team that does not have a. I want the Wild to win. Like that's a fan base. It's like Buffalo. Like if I could have my dream Stanley Cup Final for the. For beleaguered fan bases, it would be Minnesota versus Buffalo and it would be awesome. Minnesota deserves it. I don't think this team has the winning formula yet. They are starting to. They're putting the piece together. They have the stars now. Now they got to figure out the pieces around the stars because you know, they're poor defensively. They have. They're weak down the middle. And yeah, adding Vincent Trocheck helps that, but that does not fix the problem. He does not single handedly make this a good defensive team. I just don't think they have a playoff winning formula yet.
- [38:39]
B
If you compare them to Florida, yeah, they're always going to fall short. How different are they from the Colorado team that won it? They don't have Nathan McKinnon. I grant that, but that's a little more in their profile. It's the run and gun. I mean, Trocheck is maybe not quite Nazem Kadri, but I could see a little bit of rhyme in that. And they have the star power. Absolutely. They can play the fast.
- [38:58]
A
You're talking about the, you're talking about the AVS team that won in 22. Yes, they had. They had McKinnon and Ranton. Who does. Minnesota's got Caprice off and then that's it.
- [39:06]
B
I think Baldi's not that far off of what ran and was at that time. I don't think Baldi's that far off where Randon was.
- [39:12]
A
Yeah, yeah, it's not, that's. You're not wrong. You're not wrong. I just, I don't, I just. I don't see them having the team yet.
- [39:20]
C
That style rarely works in the playoffs. Like Colorado made it work once.
- [39:27]
A
To your point, once.
- [39:27]
B
They didn't make it work.
- [39:28]
C
It's very tough. We Talk about certain teams that have won as playing that style, but when you go back and look at those playoff years, they didn't. So it's a really hard style. It will be the most interesting first round playoff match. Not because of their records, just because, as Laz has pointed out to. I think stylistically, you know, the. What, what, what Colorado can't do five on five. The Wild seem to only do. But yeah, that down the middle is, is a big concern. The question is, you know something you said Max is, is, is boldy there. I think he's real close. If he's not, and if he is, that changes things. We've just never seen it where it's been two wingers leading that charge up front, not two centimetermen.
- [40:14]
B
Yeah, I think it's a valid point.
- [40:17]
A
When you, when you look at like, you know, we talk about Colorado's depth, we're talking about it down the middle, we're talking about how Brock Nelson changed things by when they didn't have that 2C, they didn't win. Right. They won when they had Kadri and now they might win when they have Nelson. So I just think it matters more than, you know, I think I, I want it for Minnesota. I really do. I want a changing of the guard. I want new teams, I want new blood and I want happy fan bases. But I just don't see it with this Minnesota Wild team yet. They have the pieces now. Now they have to put together a team.
- [40:45]
B
If we teared this out, because I think Rob's point earlier was accurate. We went for eight. I think we probably only feel good about four, maybe five of these teams. If we teared it out like it's Colorado, Tampa are definitely in tier one, I would put Vegas there. Is Edmonton in it? Is Carolina in it?
- [41:02]
A
I mean, all three of them have the goaltending question, right?
- [41:04]
B
I mean, so maybe it's, maybe it's a top tier of 2. Top tier is Colorado, Tampa. Next tier is Carolina, Vegas, Edmonton, Florida.
- [41:13]
A
I would put Dallas ahead of Florida at this point just because, okay, Florida has work to do.
- [41:17]
C
So let's, let's cut the tear before I'm ahead of Carolina. I just can't, I can't. Here's the thing. I mean, just show me Carolina. It's, it's been a half decade of this. I mean, I, we're talking about the.
- [41:26]
A
Same thing about Dallas.
- [41:29]
C
But Dallas there, I, I, I think it's Colorado and Tampa and then I think it's a drop off. I really do.
- [41:36]
B
I Think everyone else in the next tier, 16, I think.
- [41:39]
C
I think that's a jumble. All of those teams have a flaw. You know, if we assume that. That even a diminished. If the. Even if they're in a diminished Florida won't be enough to get past Tampa. How do you objectively look at Colorado and Tampa? Based off the body of work they've given us this year, and based off what we know about their best players and what they've done in past postseasons, how do you not say they are the prohibitive favorites?
- [42:07]
A
And let's not forget Colorado right Now is the 27th best power play in the league. That's not going to be that way forever with the talent they have. So they still have room to get better. That's the terrifying thing. I really do think it's Colorado and then everybody else with Tampa at the top of that list. But I feel like anything short of a Colorado Tampa final is just going to be normal Stanley cup playoffs wonkiness because those are clearly the two best teams in the league.
- [42:32]
B
All right, so those are our eight. I want to know which teams, if any, you guys think could maybe persuade you to put them somewhere in that eight with the right deadline move or moves. Does anyone come to mind? Rob?
- [42:45]
C
Geez, I don't know. I mean, it's a really good question. I think, you know, there. There's. There. There is a team. I can't believe I'm going to say it because I'm not even sure they're going to get in. But if they get in and they can add the type of guy that. And I don't know if you can get this type of player, given where the standings are. Don't worry, Laz. I'm not going to say Pittsburgh. I'm actually going to say Washington. I think I will say this. I think Pittsburgh, if they got in, would be absolutely frightening because nobody would have expected that. And Crosby might treat it like his Alamo. Right. But I think the Washington Capitals have really good goaltending. I think they can play a lot of different ways. I think they're really well coached. I think sometimes they get a little too out ahead of their skis. They're not as disciplined as they were in years past. If they could add the type of player up front that I don't think they need a great player, a great name, but the type of player that solidifies their. They still don't have that. That replacement for Backstrom. And I understand that's a huge, huge thing to say because Nicholas Backstrom is one of the great players of this era. But, but they don't have that guy that like, who's the clear number two up front. If for some reason that power play isn't going and Alex Ovechkin isn't scoring five on five, who's going to get them the goals? Who's going to create offense for them? They still need that guy.
- [44:24]
A
To me, could be RJ Panarin also.
- [44:26]
C
Could be, could be.
- [44:28]
B
It could be the return of Pierre Luke Dubois. I mean, you never quite know. He's a little bit of kind of a coin flip of what you're gonna get. And coming off an injury, I think that only heightens the uncertainty. But if they traded for Panarin and got a healthy Dubois back, I start to like them a little closer to that tier of guys now. For what it's worth, like Venom, Jim has a huge drop off. So between the Wild, who are the eighth of the eight teams that, that we just broke down, The Capitals are ninth. It's plus 3500. Remember, the Wild were plus 1800, so it's almost double the long shot. But I think if, if those two things both broke right for Washington, they could make some noise.
- [45:00]
A
Yes, I'm going Buffalo, man. I, I, I'm, I'm a believer. I don't care. I, I want it. I want it, I want it and I going to see it. I think Buffalo, we're seeing now what they're doing. I know there's some recency bias there, but let's not forget, even when they were in last place, they had good. All of us kept pointing out their underlying numbers are actually pretty good. They were so low. They were, they were on the PDO roller coaster all season here. Now they're riding high, I get it. But we're seeing a ceiling for the Sabres that is higher than the ceiling for other teams. Yes, the floor might be lower than it is for Detroit or for Washington, but that ceiling is higher. This is now a six week sample size. This isn't like a fluky little hot streak. This is six full weeks of just dominating five on five at nearly the same rate as Colorado and Tampa. Do I just, I'm starting to buy it. I'm starting to think that this is a team that in a pretty open Eastern Conference can make some noise.
- [45:50]
C
The caveat there though is the six weeks we've seen from them are coming sort of during the doldrums of the hockey season as opposed to the pressure cooker. And they just don't have many guys on that team that have been through that. And I'm always hesitant. You know, Laz, you've seen it. That first run is, you know, it's tough. You know, you say you could have.
- [46:11]
A
Said that about the Florida Panthers.
- [46:12]
C
No, no, you absolutely could.
- [46:14]
A
At some point you have to get it.
- [46:15]
C
You know, you do have to get there. You have to get it. I, the other team that's interesting me is the one that you cover. Max. I, I, I, I have wanted to buy into the Detroit Red Wings for like three years in a row and they just this year finally feels like it might be safe a little bit with them. Sort of. What? A little bit. What I question we've talked about in the past with Carolina is, you know, do they have that guy, do they have that guy that's going to elevate in a seven game series? But Laz, you said something there and I can't stress this enough. It's a different conversation in the Eastern Conference. We're talking about their teams because they may not have to, they may not have to have that guy that does it. A lot of times they might only have to do it against say one series against Tampa. And that's much different than what we're asking the Western teams to do.
- [47:05]
B
If it's going to be Detroit, I'll say, like we're talking about with a deadline at. I think it, it's interesting because the place that they would need it as a top 4D. I think their blue line is still really top heavy with cider and Evans and Evans is actually out right now, which is scary for them. It's not as sexy of a D market out there. I mean, now that Quinn Hughes obviously is off of it, certainly when that was in play that looked really appetizing. But you know, where else are you looking? Is it, is it Justin Falk? Like that's probably the number one target for them for me. But does that really change the outlook of how you view the blue line? It makes it better for sure. The other thing that they need is a top six forward and that's probably where you might find that difference maker. Rob. Like they're a team that does have the assets to make a push for Robert Thomas. They could definitely win a bidding war for Vincent Trocheck if they feel like they're ready for it. We have to see if Steve Yerman is ready to make those kind of moves.
- [47:50]
A
The most conservative general manager in the history of the world. Yes.
- [47:53]
C
Yes. Well, let me, let me be the homer here. Now, let me just ask you guys this, because I don't think it's going to happen.
- [47:57]
A
Wait, Rob, you're going to be a homer.
- [47:59]
C
Yeah.
- [47:59]
B
There you go.
- [47:59]
A
Rob Rossi.
- [48:01]
C
Hey, Pittsburgh. I'm just asking. I'm just asking the question. They're. They're in second in their division now. Over the last four or five weeks, they've been on a very. On a heater, I guess we would call it. Sidney Crosby is still Sidney Crosby in that he's playing at an exceptional level for his age. Evgeny Malkin, when healthy, is doing that. Eric Carlson looks like a hockey player who cares, which has been revelatory. And honestly, I, I, Kyle Dubas has. Has made. Made them better in some areas than I. That I thought they would be. I'm asking this because it feels like the Pittsburgh situation is interesting, because this feels like a year where a situation like that can maybe have more success. I don't think they're going to the Stanley Cup Final, but can maybe do a little bit more damage in the playoffs if they were to get in a team like that that we weren't expecting just because they have some cap space to play with. And also they have the east, and I wonder if the east, this year we are going to see a team in a conference final where we weren't expecting. I'm not saying Pittsburgh, but let's use them as the example. Is that. Is that out there this year for the East?
- [49:14]
B
It could be. My issue with Pittsburgh is their D, right? Because to go through the Metro, you got to go through Carolina. And their D is very like the way Carolina would forecheck Latang and Carlson and even Brett Kulak, who I really like, would terrify me if I was Pittsburgh. But that being said, like, I just watched Pittsburgh play consecutive games against the Red Wings at New Year's. Sidney Crosby is unbelievable, and he is absolutely capable still, even at this age of winning a playoff series by himself. I just have a hard time seeing the Penguins defense rise to the level.
- [49:42]
C
I agree with that. I agree with that.
- [49:44]
A
I really do feel. It's funny. I feel like Pittsburgh and to a lesser extent, Boston this year, like, we all came into the season with such a preconceived notion of what they were going to be, that we're all, like, convincing ourselves it's not real. Well, we're past the halfway point of the season. Here we are. We're going to be out of the dog day soon into the home stretch, and they're still doing it. So it's almost like Washington last year where Max and I spent the entire hockey season going, ah, Washington. That can't be true. That can't be real. I don't know. Well, were pretty good.
- [50:09]
B
Detroit reminds me more of Washington because it's this like this amazing coaching job. You're kind of riding the energy of this all time Greats record. Chase REM's having that with Kane. The. The Capitals had it with Ovechkin and Detroit's goaltending like quietly. If you go back and look. John Gibson since December 1st has been one of the two or three best goalies in the league based on how he started. He's not going to show up on any leaderboards because it was that bad for the first six weeks. But he's been excellent. He's stealing them games. He's been awesome. So if he keeps that up, the Red Wings have a chance to be very similar to last year's Washington.
- [50:39]
C
I think Metro is so bad. It's just so. It's. He. I mean it really is the Metro so bad. It's even tough for me to think that great of Carolina obviously because like you get to play all the. I keep saying to everybody like there's probably going to be four but there's definitely going to be three teams from that division that make the playoffs. And like I don't know if there's definitely three of the top eight teams in the east but like they get to play each other so much.
- [51:06]
A
It's that that's gonna be above. There's so much dead weight in the Metro.
- [51:11]
C
Yeah.
- [51:11]
A
And easy points to be had that The Atlantic. I want to see five Atlantic teams. I want to see. Yeah, that's. Those are the teams I want to see in the playoffs and we might get stuck with 4 and 4 or even 5 on 3 the other way just because you know the Carolinas the world are going to fatten up.
- [51:24]
C
I think you're right, Laz. I think it might be more likely that you see five from the bad Metro just because they're getting a points against each other.
- [51:30]
A
Just Buffalo's luck for that to happen.
- [51:32]
B
Yeah, no, it's. It's going to be five from the Atlantic. I feel really strongly about that. I want to go back last to your Buffalo pick because we talked about this as teams that need the right deadline acquisition to kind of get into the conversation. It's interesting for Buffalo because so many of their moves were already from last summer and it feels cruel to me for. For Kevin Adams that he has to watch Josh Doan, Michael Kesselring, Ryan McLeod and some of these guys were already playing well before he got fired. But everything that he kind of put in place is what's working like there. If there's a move out there to be made, it's. It's probably in goal. But Alex Lyon has played really, really well for them. So what would the move be that you had in mind when you said Buffalo? Or is it just ride it while it's hot?
- [52:10]
A
I think you're right changing in goal that it almost never works at the trade deadline. Goalies don't adapt to new systems in a short amount of time. And Lion's done this before he has gotten a team into the playoffs. It's funny that you mentioned that. How great would it be if Kevin Adams won GM of the Year this year? If the GMs had any sense of humor and they were like, see, you shouldn't fire us. You should give us a permanent lifetime response, job security. Because like, it does take. There's a lag here. And that's why you see, you know, your Steve Yzerman and your Kyle Davidsons of the world, we're not going to be able to judge them for still years to come. And there is a lag with the moves you make. It's not instantaneous gratification usually. And yeah, Kevin Adams has got to be watching this with mixed emotions. He's got to be proud and he's got to be furious at the same time.
- [52:53]
C
What could, what could a Terry Pegula press conference be after the Buffalo Sabres lose a controversial playoff series? Who, who would he fire then and.
- [53:03]
B
Which player would he throw under the bus?
- [53:04]
A
Yes.
- [53:04]
B
Yeah, here's my, here's my fun stat of the day for you. The Buffalo Sabers have three top five pick defensemen on their roster. Last Rasmus Darling is obviously the highest scoring of their defense score this year. Who's the next highest scoring blue liner on the Buffalo Sabers this year?
- [53:18]
A
Well, the way you phrase that question is going to be some guy that I'm not even thinking of. So I already give up.
- [53:22]
B
It's Matias Samuelson who is.
- [53:24]
A
Yeah, I was gonna guess that rugged.
- [53:26]
B
You know, more defense. He's got offense for sure. But I think of him as a more defensive D. He's outscoring both Owen Power and Bowen Byram this year. I did not have that on my bingo card.
- [53:36]
A
And remember, Bo Byram has done this in the playoffs before. What he did with Colorado as a rookie, that's a guy who has succeeded in the playoffs before, he could be a difference maker for that team.
- [53:45]
C
I will say this to back what Laz says about Buffalo. I would not want to have to go in there and play a playoff game.
- [53:53]
A
That place, that crowd's gonna be so loud.
- [53:56]
C
I mean, it's been so long. I think it's the best hockey market in America. They love it. They just, they've had so little.
- [54:04]
A
They've just Buffalo, Detroit, and Minnesota right now. Those are the three fan bases that I feel would be just, that are just ready to explode and jump on a bandwagon so fast. And I don't mean that derogatorily like jumping on the bandwagon is what you do when your team is good. It's okay.
- [54:18]
C
Yeah.
- [54:18]
A
And like, I feel like those cities are ready to just go nuts for hockey team.
- [54:21]
B
Yeah. All right, we're gonna take a quick break right there. But first you listen to us. Now we want to hear from you. We're asking you to fill out a quick survey about you and your podcast habits by going to theathletic.com survey26. Three lucky entries are going to win $100Amazon gift card. So whether you're a longtime listener or a new one, we want your feedback. Go to theathletic.com survey26. That's theathletic.com survey 26 links also in our episode description. Be right back.
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Line free via monthly bill credits. Credit stop if you cancel any lines. Qualifying credit required. All right, we are back. And Laz, I don't know if you saw the interview that Pierre Lebrun did for the Athletic show with Brady Tkachuk this weekend. It's the athletic sports weekly show. It airs Saturdays on Amazon Fire next day available on YouTube. And he talked to Brady ahead of the Olympics and I thought it was a pretty fun interview. I mean it def. I'm excited for the Olympics already but it definitely got me to the place where I am ready for these things to start. One thing that was said that terrified me that I hadn't even considered the possibility of. I forget if Pierre or Brady brought it up, but the possibility. It's not a guarantee at this tournament that USA and Canada are actually going to face each other based on the way that the groups in the bracket is set up. That can't happen. That can't be allowed to stand.
- [57:21]
A
It absolutely can happen. And all it takes is one goalie standing on his head in the quarterfinals for that to happen. It's, it's, it's, it's the flaw in this tournament. The way that pools are set up. It, it's kind of to protect the big teams but at the same time we don't get to see that round robin game. That and, and, and, and even if they do meet in the semis, let's say it is lessened by the fact that they hadn't met yet. Like it's usually what happens in the first game informs what happens in the, in the next game. That's what happened at four nations, right? The silly fights and all that that the Tkachuk started that informed and made the next game when they were playing for the gold medal that much of a bigger deal internationally, globally. And yeah, I remember in Sochi we were so excited for us to play Canada and they didn't meet until the semifinals. It was one of the worst hockey games I ever saw. It was a 1 nothing Canadian win and it was a blowout. If you had a. Ever had a one nothing blowout, that was the game. It was such a letdown for that to be the only matchup we got out of those two teams. That, that's the, that's the risk we run of an Olympic tournament the way it's designed.
- [58:18]
B
So who's your quarterfinal pick of a team that could. Could ruin this for everyone?
- [58:23]
A
You know, we had him submit some bold predictions for the Olympics. And I kept coming back to Czechia. I feel like Lucas de Stal is. They have just enough talent up front and they gotta, they have legitimate star kind of goaltending. It's all it takes, remember, and again to go back to Sochi. Kristers Gudalevskis, the latvian goalie made 55 saves against Canada. It was 11 with like five minutes to go in the game and all of Canada was freaking out. The greatest team ever assembled almost lost to Latvia. You're telling me Czechia can't do that?
- [58:51]
B
I'm a little Germany curious. I mean, I, my, my fear on them was goaltending, but 918 so far from Philip Grubauer. And you add that to a team that has dry Seidel Stutzler and Moritz Cider. I know they don't have quite the NHL depth of a Czechia, but man, you get those three guys all at 100% and you get the right game from Grubauer and that could be a terrifying night too.
- [59:11]
A
This is what we want, right? We want more teams capable of beating the big teams. Then we'll complain that, oh, we didn't get to see the matchup we wanted. But this is what we want is a deeper, better tournament and the rise of teams like, like Germany and even like to Lesha, Switzerland and Denmark and kind of Czechia returning to prominence a little bit. Slovakia has gotten a lot better after really kind of bottoming out the last 10 years. This is what we want. We want it to be a tournament where anybody can beat anybody. And we're not quite there yet, but we're getting closer.
- [59:39]
B
One of the other things that made me think of as Brady was talking is just reminding me that I really think and this might be a hot take. I kind of feel like he should be the captain of Team usa and I know there's a ton of candidates on this team. Basically the whole team is captains on some level, whether they wear the C or the A for their team. And I know that his older brother Matthew also would have a claim to that. But one of my tests has kind of just been when I close my eyes and think about this version of Team usa, whether it's from the four nations or what I expect at the Olympics, the guy who keeps popping into my head is Brady Kachuk. Is that a crazy take?
- [60:11]
A
No. I mean, it depends on what you're looking for in a captain. Like, you think of Sidney Crosby being the captain for.
- [60:15]
B
There is no Crosby. There is no Crosby.
- [60:17]
A
That's what I'm saying. But. But Sidney Crosby is not a fiery guy. He's not a. He doesn't drag you into the fight with him, so to speak. He's just so good and so respected. You just want to follow him. Right. Whereas Brady Tkachuk is not even one of the five or ten best players on that team, probably. But he is the emotional heartbeat. He is the guy. Whether he's got a C on his jersey or not, he's going to be one of the loudest guys in that room. He's going to be one of the loudest guys on the ice and he's going to be playing a style that does drag other guys into the fight. I love the idea. I'm. Look, I'm mentally. This is the first I've thought of it. I'm looking through the roster in my head right now. I can't think of a better option. There's no guarantee. There's. There is. Like you said, there is no Crosby here. There's no easy choice. Auston Matthews, he's going to be the captain, I guess. Right.
- [60:58]
B
And I just.
- [60:59]
A
Is Austin Matthews a guy that you like, go to war with?
- [61:01]
B
It doesn't feel right to me. Right. He hasn't had. And granted, Brady hasn't had like the playoff success either yet. But the way that Matthews is. And I don't want to hold that all on Austin.
- [61:09]
A
Right.
- [61:09]
B
But it's like he's not the rah rah. And I'm also like. He didn't play as well at the Four nations as, like, I mean, he. I thought Brady was a lot better at the Four nations than Austin Matthews was. Like Jack Eichel probably was the. If you want to look at the centers, Jack Eichel and Dylan Larkin and both of those guys have warrants. Zach Warrensky's warranty. Quinn Hughes is warranty. Like, there are a lot of good options, leadership wise for this team. It just. For me, it kept coming back to like, I feel like Brady Tkachuk is the emotional leader of the team and, and the guy that you talked about in the Crosby profile is getting left at home. That's Patrick Kane. Right. So I just keep coming back to. I. I think if it was me, I would make it Brady Chuck.
- [61:42]
A
I'd be fine with that. I mean, Matthews has the status. He is considered the best.
- [61:46]
B
He's won the mvp.
- [61:47]
A
Yeah, he's. Yeah, like, he's. He's got. He gets it by default that way. But. And this isn't a knock at him. You can't be someone you're not. If Auston Matthews tried to be Brady Tkachuk, it would ring hollow and guys would see right through that. Like, it's not a knock on Austin Matthews to say that that's not his personality. That's just who he is. And that's fine. Who he is is very, very good in terms of hockey. But, yeah, I do like the idea Brady more than Matthew. To me, I feel like Brady kind of, again, whether he has that letter or not, he is going to be the emotional heartbeat of the team. Everything that happened to four nations kind of stemmed from Brady could. Chuck, in a lot of ways, I love the idea.
- [62:21]
B
Yeah. One last thought that I had, and you've talked about this before, again, I don't know who. Which one of the two brought it up, but it was this idea that has come up a few times. One of them from you recently, that USA just is always one goal away. And I, I want to know how that informs, kind of how you look at the way that this roster is built, because I know a lot of people take that to mean more skill. More skill. I, I'm. I'm just. I go back to the way that some of these Olympics have played out. And you talked about the Goodlevskis run and the way that these Canadas have been built. These Canada teams that have won have not been scoring five goals. And so I. It's just an interesting, like, framework that I think everyone is using to find one conclusion. And I wonder if it's. If it's a little forced. I don't know.
- [63:01]
A
Well, again, you go back to the last time we ever had NHL players in the Olympics in 2014, Canada was the most dominant team I've ever seen, and they won every game, like two to one or one. Nothing. They just suffocated you. Carrie Price had to make like 11 saves a night and became a national hero for doing it. He never saw a shot on goal, man, like, they, they used the big ice out there and they're not going to have that possibility. You're not going to be able to, you know, I think it was Mike Babcock. He, he had them, you know, playing to such a defensive style that the opposing team was always 100ft from the net almost at any moment. And you couldn't get a good, a great, a scoring chance. You can't do that on a, what is it, 197 foot rink. Right. Like this rink is going to be NHL size, a little smaller than that. So you can't quite do that. You can't play that style. But Canada wins by playing team defense. And we could talk about, you know, we got our Tage Thompson on the team now and, you know, all these, all these good young goal scorers and why isn't Cole Caulfield on there? And I get that. I'm with you, but at the same time, that's not what has proven to win these tournaments in the past. It's team defense. It's grinding out games and it's making life easier on your goaltenders, which you know, Canada's going to do because their goaltending is terrible.
- [64:05]
B
Yeah, I, I think the, the guys who have to be responsible for that one goal are the guys in the top six already and. Right. And maybe that evolves over the course of the tournament.
- [64:14]
A
Right.
- [64:14]
B
Like Jack Hughes. I, I think there's a valid case of like Jack Hughes's minutes in the last tournament dwindled as it went along. Kyle Connor was scratched as that tournament went along. Like, there's, there's valid arguments for needing guys to replace it, but it's also just like those are the guys that are going to need to, to raise their game to find that goal. Not so much finding off the roster.
- [64:33]
A
We also need to, and I've been as guilty of this as anybody. We have to stop talking about four nations has nothing to do with this term. This tournament is so different. It's so much longer. There's so many more teams there. There are, there are these upstarts that are just that every time they play the US or they play Canada, that's their Stanley Cup Final. Like when Czechia does get either the US Or Canada, however that shakes out, they are going to be, they're going to want it so bad where the US And Canada be like, okay, we just got to win this so we can get to the next one. And I think that this tournament is going to be so much different than four nations that every comparison they made to four nations, whether it's one goal more or not is irrelevant to me. It's irrelevant what Jordan Bennington did at Four Nations. It's irrelevant to how those teams played. And it's there was no turn as the tournament went on. It was like three games. This is a two week tournament. This is a lot of games and it's going to be very, very different than Four nation plus.
- [65:19]
B
Well, you're right. And that's that that goes back to the first thing we talked about here, about USA and Canada not being guaranteed to play each other. My whole mental framework whenever I did a projection on Team USA and I'm sure that Team USA's actual brass was doing something similar, was matching up this team against Canada and when I had the realization that they may never even see each other, I was like, so then what does work against what works best against Czechia? What does worse best against? Right? What does work best against Switzerland? And you'd like to think that the talent on Team USA is at least a tier above some of these teams, but Finland certainly didn't make life easy on Team USA at the Four Nations. They are always ready to play in international hockey. I don't know.
- [65:59]
A
We spent so much time in Sochi Talking about the U.S. russia matchup and then we got that incredible prelims game where with the TJ Oshi Shootout and then they both flamed out. Like, you have no idea how this tournament's going to be. Everything that we talk about going in, like, you know, I'm going to Milan, I'm leaving in like 12 days and we have all these storylines in my head. Like I got to be prepared for this, this, this and this. I'm sure that whatever happens will be the one thing I didn't think about and that's what makes this tournament great. Is that really, you know, short of, you know, Slovakia winning gold medal, probably almost anything can happen out here.
- [66:29]
B
Well, you can't say I didn't tell you to prepare for Germany. That is going to do it for us. Thanks for listening to this episode of the Athletic Hockey Show. Sean, Sean and Frankie will be with you on Wednesday. We'll talk to you soon.
- [66:44]
A
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