The Athletic Hockey Show (Jan 26, 2026)

Episode: The Eight True Stanley Cup Contenders
Hosts: Max Bultman (B), Mark Lazerus (A), Rob Rossi (C)

Overview

This episode dives deep into the landscape of Stanley Cup contention as the NHL trade deadline approaches, with the hosts debating which teams are legitimate threats to win it all. They break down their list of eight "true" contenders, assess each team’s strengths and vulnerabilities, and explore what could push fringe teams into the conversation. The conversation later shifts to Olympic hockey, especially USA/Canada dynamics and the upcoming 2026 tournament.

Main Discussion: The Eight Stanley Cup Contenders

The Contenders List

The teams the hosts agree are the truest Cup contenders as of late January 2026 (in rough order of consensus and perceived tier):

1. Colorado Avalanche
2. Tampa Bay Lightning
3. Florida Panthers
4. Carolina Hurricanes
5. Vegas Golden Knights
6. Edmonton Oilers
7. Dallas Stars
8. Minnesota Wild

Team-by-Team Breakdown

1. Colorado Avalanche

Timestamps: 02:04–04:07, revisit 42:07

• Dominance Even at Cruise Control:
  "They started out the year 31-2-7, half the regular season. They had two regulation losses...They are on absolute cruise control which championship teams do and it will make them better." — Mark Lazerus (A) [02:29]

• No Holes in the Lineup:
  “I was skeptical about the goaltending...Wedgwood and Blackwood have proved me wrong. Brock Nelson is exactly what they needed at 2C. Marty Nečas is putting up Mikko Rantanen numbers. McKinnon is just coasting...” — Mark Lazerus (A) [02:52]

• The McKinnon vs McDavid Debate:
  "I might put Nathan McKinnon above [McDavid] on some nights. I think he's as dangerous as it gets." — Max Bultman (B) [03:49]
  "Nathan McKinnon...can do things Connor McDavid can't, while McKinnon can do a lot of the things McDavid can. McDavid is indisputably the most talented player in the world...But right now Nathan McKinnon might be a better hockey player." — Mark Lazerus (A) [06:30]

• Skepticism on Playoff Repeat:
  Rob Rossi (C) is less convinced: “I want to see it happen in a playoff series against really good teams. I want to see that goaltending hold up...” [04:07]

2. Tampa Bay Lightning

Timestamps: 07:40–12:57

• Hot Streak and Playoff Credentials:
  “They had won 11 in a row...a 15 game point streak...They are just dominating.” — Max Bultman (B) [07:40]
  “This is the best defensive team in the league. They give up nothing, absolutely nothing.” — Mark Lazerus (A) [08:14]

• Kucherov’s Brilliance:
  "Kucherov is quietly marching to a 140-point season. Ten three-point games in 37. He's a guaranteed multi-point game every single night." — Mark Lazerus (A) [08:14]

• Blue Line Concerns Despite Cooper’s Masterclass:
  “The blue line is being propped up by guys that just don’t have the track record...It’s a scouting and coaching masterclass, but I’m a little nervous about what it will look like come April and May.” — Max Bultman (B) [09:11]

• Florida Is the Boogeyman:
  Rob Rossi (C): “There’s no world in which I see them [Lightning] winning a 7-game series against the Panthers. We know how that goes.” [10:05]

3. Florida Panthers

Timestamps: 15:44–18:36

• Puncher’s Chance but Heavy Wear:
  “Nobody’s going to bet against the Florida Panthers in the playoff series at this point. Nobody’s that stupid. But can they get in?” — Mark Lazerus (A) [16:27]
  "At some point you could ask Chicago, you could ask Tampa Bay. This stuff catches up to you." — Mark Lazerus (A) [16:48]

• Goaltending Decline an Achilles Heel:
  “Bobrovsky, it’s an .875 save percentage so far. It’s going to be very hard for them to get in with him performing like that.” — Max Bultman (B) [18:10]

4. Carolina Hurricanes

Timestamps: 18:36–23:04

• Stuck in System Success:
  "No matter what year you watch the Carolina Hurricanes, it looks exactly the same. Fast, forecheck, but you still don't believe in them." — Mark Lazerus (A) [18:53]

• Yearly Goaltending Question Mark:
  “We’ve been talking for years, if they only got a goalie they’d be able to do something...Can it be Brandon Bussi?” — Mark Lazerus (A) [18:53]

• Need Game-Breakers:
  “They don’t have game breakers...Sebastian Aho is not that guy.” — Rob Rossi (C)/Mark Lazerus (A) [20:31]

• System Stifles Stars:
  On Ehlers: “He just doesn’t look like the same constant threat… There is kind of this assimilation factor in Carolina, whatever you are, you’re gonna be what they are.” — Max Bultman (B) [21:06]

5. Vegas Golden Knights

Timestamps: 23:04–26:47

• Goaltending: Major Weakness:
  "I don't buy them because of the goaltending...from in front of the goal forward, absolute Cup contender, but I don't think they can win with those goalies." — Mark Lazerus (A) [23:33]

• Depth and Chemistry Issues:
  “Hard every year to go for it ... sometimes you have too many big fish and it changes the waters.” — Rob Rossi (C) [24:45]
  "The bottom six...these are not guys that go toe-to-toe...you're going to need Marner, Eichel, Stone to be all-world." — Max Bultman (B) [24:02]

• Culture Fatigue:
  “When you have a core...but you keep making splash moves, it’s difficult to plug that culture in again.” — Rob Rossi (C) [24:45]

6. Edmonton Oilers

Timestamps: 26:47–31:54

• The Scariest High-End Talent — With Familiar Flaws:
  “They are still, in my mind, the scariest team out there. They’re scarier than Colorado, scarier than Florida, scarier than Tampa Bay, because they have two guys, not just one, who can completely take over a series.” — Mark Lazerus (A) [27:36]

• Goaltending and Depth Questions:
  “Tristan Jarry doesn’t get to play Vancouver every night...How could you have any confidence with so much riding on it ... for that to be your goaltending duo?” — Mark Lazerus (A) [27:36]

• Can McDavid Keep Carrying the Load?
  “He doesn’t have the team around him...It's just hard to believe in them when it's the same thing.” — Mark Lazerus (A) [29:52]

7. Dallas Stars

Timestamps: 32:01–34:17

• Power Play Dependency, Lack of 5-on-5 Scoring:
  “They’re too power play dependent...It’s almost inexplicable how they can't seem to score at 5-on-5 at a regular basis given what they have.” — Mark Lazerus (A) [32:24]

• Depth Needs Identified:
  “I think it's more of a third line ad. I don't think they need another guy who can sit on the power play. I think they need a third line player, maybe a third line center.” — Max Bultman (B) [33:05]

• Playoff Proving Ground:
  “Show me what's different...Colorado have shown me this year what's different from their previous teams. Dallas just hasn’t.” — Rob Rossi (C) [34:17]

8. Minnesota Wild

Timestamps: 35:45–40:44

• Down-the-Middle Woes:
  “I love Joel Eriksson Ek but he’s not a 1C. Neither is Ryan Hartman...Teams that win championships are strong down the middle.” — Mark Lazerus (A) [35:45]
  "They just don't have it down the middle. I don't think that's a team built to win a 7-game series just yet." — Mark Lazerus (A) [35:45]

• Fun, Not Fundamental?
  “This is a team that does not have a...they're poor defensively. They're weak down the middle...I just don't think they have a playoff winning formula yet.” — Mark Lazerus (A) [37:46]

Contenders in Tiers

The consensus (41:02):

• Tier 1: Colorado, Tampa Bay
• Tier 2: Vegas, Edmonton, Carolina, Florida, Dallas, Minnesota (all with notable flaws)

Fringe Teams Who Could Crash the Party

(42:31–54:53)

• Washington Capitals:
  “If they get in and add the right center, they can play different ways, have solid goaltending, are well coached.” — Rob Rossi (C) [44:23]

• Buffalo Sabres:
  "The ceiling for the Sabres is higher than the ceiling for other teams...This is now a 6-week sample size...dominating 5-on-5 at nearly same rate as Colorado and Tampa." — Mark Lazerus (A) [45:00]

• Detroit Red Wings:
  “They need a top-4 D and a top-6 forward to reach the next level. They actually have the assets to make a push.” — Max Bultman (B) [47:05]

• Pittsburgh Penguins:
  “If they got in, would be absolutely frightening because Crosby might treat it like his Alamo.” — Rob Rossi (C) [48:00]

• Team Building and the Soft Metro:
  "There's so much dead weight in the Metro...easy points to be had" — Mark Lazerus (A) [51:06]

Notable Quotes and Moments

• On McKinnon vs McDavid:

  • "Nathan McKinnon might be a better hockey player right now." — Mark Lazerus (A) [06:30]
  • "He has one thing Connor McDavid would love." — Rob Rossi (C) [04:07]

• On Tampa–Florida playoff matchups:

  • "There's no world in which I see [Tampa Bay] winning a seven-game series against the Panthers." — Rob Rossi (C) [10:05]
  • "Florida's got to get in." — Mark Lazerus (A) [12:36]

• On Buffalo’s renaissance:

  • "I want it, I want it, I want it, and I'm going to see it. I think Buffalo...has a ceiling higher than other teams." — Mark Lazerus (A) [45:00]

• Playoff fatigue reality:

  • "Extended playoff runs...take something out of you in a way you're not aware until you need it." — Rob Rossi (C) [17:17]

Olympic Talk: 2026 Milan Games

(56:35–66:28)

• Tournament Structure and Potential USA/Canada Snub:
  “It’s not a guarantee USA and Canada are actually going to face each other based on groups and bracket...That can’t be allowed to stand.” — Max Bultman (B) [57:20]

• Which Dark Horse Could Ruin It?:

  • “All it takes is one goalie standing on his head in the quarterfinals..." — Mark Lazerus (A) [58:18]
  • “I’m Germany curious...Stützle, Draisaitl, Seider, Grubauer can steal games.” — Max Bultman (B) [58:51]

• Who Should Captain Team USA?

  • "When I close my eyes and think about this version of Team USA...the guy who keeps popping into my head is Brady Tkachuk. Is that a crazy take?" — Max Bultman (B) [59:39]
  • "He is the emotional heartbeat...he’s going to be one of the loudest guys on that team." — Mark Lazerus (A) [60:16]

• The 'One Goal' USA Narrative: Skill vs. Structure

  • "Canada wins by playing team defense...that's what has proven to win these tournaments in the past." — Mark Lazerus (A) [64:05]

• International Tournament Unpredictability:

  • "Short of Slovakia winning gold, probably anything can happen out here." — Mark Lazerus (A) [66:28]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• (02:04): Start of main content, who are the true Cup contenders?
• (03:49): McKinnon vs McDavid
• (07:40): Why Tampa is a favorite, Kucherov's run, blue line X-factors
• (10:05–12:57): Can Tampa conquer Florida? The state of the East
• (15:44): Florida Panthers’ playoff endurance and Barkov debate
• (18:36): Carolina’s perennial playoff barrier
• (23:04): Vegas and the goaltending/chemistry problem
• (26:47): Edmonton’s high ceiling, familiar problems
• (32:01–34:17): Dallas's power play/5v5 split, needs at deadline
• (35:45): Minnesota's flaws, playoff formula debate
• (41:02–42:07): Ranking/tiering the true contenders
• (42:31–54:53): Which outsiders could break in post-deadline?
• (56:35): Olympic preview: USA, Canada, and the international field
• (59:39): Who should captain Team USA?
• (64:05–65:58): Does USA need "more skill" or to embrace the grind?
• (66:28): Predicting Olympic chaos

Overall Tone and Takeaways

The tone is informed, lively, and often irreverent, with plenty of friendly ribbing but also nuanced breakdowns of each team's ceiling and holes. The consensus remains that the Avalanche and Lightning are the class of the league, but a jumble of other teams lurk with fatal flaws or paths to fix them. Olympic talk stirs up both anticipation and cynicism about tournament structure and North American expectations.

If You Only Remember Three Things

1. Colorado and Tampa are seen as a (slim) tier above the pack, with mostly established stars, depth, and recent playoff pedigree.
2. Serious doubts linger about goaltending (Edmonton, Vegas, Carolina), depth (Edmonton, Vegas, Minnesota), or playoff wear (Florida).
3. The East is considered open and weak after the top, making dark horses like Buffalo, Detroit, and Washington intriguing, potential “chaos-makers.”

For full breakdowns on each team and their playoff prognosis, as well as an entertaining look ahead to Olympic hockey, this episode is an essential reference as trade season heats up and bracket speculation looms.