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This is the athletic hockey show.
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B
Hey everybody, Max Bowman here alongside Jesse Granger for another episode of the Athletic Hockey Show. Ton to talk about today, some massive trades over the last few days. We got some more potential news in the coming days that we're going to talk about. Matt Fairburn is going to join us later on. And thanks to everyone who watched the Quinn Hughes Live reaction on Friday night. Scott and Corey did a great job on that. Make sure you subscribe on YouTube at YouTube.com/at the Athletic Hockey show so you can join in next time. But that's where we're going to start this one too. And we're going to bring in Thomas Drance, Canucks writer here at the Athletic. And Drancer, we talked about it when we had John. I don't know if that was a week ago, two weeks ago at this point, but things obviously moved fast to the point that on today as we speak, Z Bouilliam already has his first goal as a Vancouver Canuck.
- [03:32]
D
Yeah. And Quinn Hughes already has his first goal as a member of the Minnesota Wild. A couple of promising debuts for, for a pair of super talented defensemen. But there are levels to this and Quinn Hughes is a different sort of player. He's a transcendent piece and I mean he's full value for what the Wild pay. Like one thing, gentlemen, this is, this is, I'm going to start with a very general take about how we analyze hockey trades. And, and one thing about how we analyze hockey trades. And not just the three of us, but everyone who does our job and, and frankly, all the fans that we engage with in various online spaces, whether it's in the YouTube comments or, or on the Athletic or on Twitter, people focus on the details a little too much sometimes and miss just the big picture of oh my God, the Wild just acquired Quinn Hughes. And, and by the way, I don't think this is unique to hockey fans. I wonder if a whole bunch of NHL general managers who had quote unquote untouchable pieces on their roster but will probably never have as good an opportunity to acquire a player of Hughes's quality across the next five years. Maybe one of them works in your city, Max. But, but I'll tell you this, a GM who meets that description does not work in Jesse's city. Point being, sometimes just swing man, like you have a chance to add Quinn Hughes to your lineup. You have a chance to in any game that you're trailing three two, just throw out Boldy, Caprizov, Hughes, Faber and whomever down the middle, probably Yoel, Ericson Ek at the same time. I mean, my God, the, the, the, the fireballs that the Wild are going to be able to throw at the top of their lineup now in any game state that they're trailing like any game that they're trailing. They are going to be a threat to put up one of those, you know, absurd like 28 shot attempts to 4 margins and just completely demolish an opponent. I, I mean we're going to see this build too. There's going to be chemistry to be mined and to be found across the next several months. And, and what's the risk here like? The risk here for the Wild is as straightforward as it gets. It's a timing risk. It's, it's a timing risk that, hey, we, we're not guaranteed to have Quinn Hughes beyond a period of 18 months. Okay, sure. But also this summer you're going to have the opportunity to put an eight year contract in front of him with a signing bonus structure that will disappear when the rules of the new CBA kick in entirely because some of them have already kicked in. But it's staggered how it's being rolled out on September 15th. So I mean the truth is, is they're going to be able to put an offer in front of Quinn Hughes that in terms of total compensation is 30 plus million more than any offer Hughes will ever be eligible to receive again this summer. That seems to be a weapon worth paying for if you're also getting two playoff runs with the second best defenseman in hockey, a player who I still would argue it should not be slotted necessarily in its second additionally. Right. You're going to have a chance this summer to offer that deal and instead have Hughes come back with, you know, we think the cap's going up so rapidly that we'd prefer to just do a two year deal. You know, that syncs me up in terms of my term with Jack Hughes. Like that, that then, then you know, I get a three year run trying to win a cup with Kirill Caprizov and then I have the freedom to explore options with my brother. And we, we're not committed to New Jersey. We can pick wherever we want to go. I mean that, that seems like a possibility. Right? Like the, there's all sorts of different ways that this is not just a rental for the Wild. They bought time and they bought an elite player. And so I, I don't understand why everybody didn't have a ze bom quality prospect on the table if there was a chance to acquire Quinn Hughes. Like these guys don't come available. This quality of player does not come available. And when they do, historically anyway, they either are coming off of a concerning back surgery that no NHL player has ever come Back from. Or they haven't shown it yet. Alice. Sam Reinhardt, or they play for the Buffalo Sabres, so we're not sure if they're a winner or. Or it's, you know, Eric Carlson. And the fallout in that locker room was so toxic that people were concerned about, you know, the risk on Quinn Hughes is just time. It's just contractual status like this is a sure bet. An elite player, as we've seen move in a trade in a long time. And it's stunning to me that only the Wild were. Were paying up to the extent that they did, and they did pay up. I'm not criticizing Vancouver here either. I. I mean, I think this was necessary for Vancouver, but that. That's. I think my biggest picture takeaway from this is if you got a chance to acquire Quinn Hughes and you're holding on to X guy, that will probably never matter as much as Quinn Hughes. I think you've lost the plot.
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Right.
- [08:39]
A
Zeve Williams, a heck of a prospect. He might even be Quinn Hughes one day.
- [08:42]
D
Yeah, right. Maybe. Or. Or he's a boat. No, I mean. I mean. And I think that was critical for the Canucks here, right? Z Boyim gave them a return where there was one fundamental piece in the trade package where, you know, you could dream on potentially getting a player back who can be as impactful for you as Quinn Hughes is today. But, you know, there. There is some projection involved there, of course. Look, Z Boum, the. The confidence, the. The amount of winning that he's done at every level. You know, he threw a huge hit on, like, his second shift today in Newark on. On Jesper Brat that I. That I was wildly impressed with. He. He ended up with two points. But if you're watching the game or you go back and watch the highlights, one was an own goal, and the other was one of those plays where he actually missed a pass D to flank on the power play. Like, missed it so badly that Connor Garland had to circle back and reload and then put the puck down to Jake Debrusk, who made an exceptional individual effort. So he. He actually got a secondary assist for a missed pass. The two points is not why he provided value or. Or why he was awesome in his Canucks debut, because he was. It was the physical play, it was the transition ability, it was the fact that he played 17 minutes and played well defensively in a game that the Canucks led narrowly. But, yeah, I mean, he's an. He's an incredible piece for the Canucks to have netted here. He's not Quinn Hughes, though. Right. And that's vital. But also, you know, this Canucks team is probably belated that the Canucks are beginning to look more aggressively toward the future. And that said, you know, I thought this package was good for the Canucks from the perspective of, like, you know, making the best of a bad situation, even if that bad situation was entirely of their own devising. You know, I think this is the sort of trade that they need to be making, but it's also insufficient. Right? You make this trade, you win a game against New Jersey, you dust your hands off and say, great, rebuild. That was easy. No, it's insufficient. This is going to require years.
- [10:52]
B
We'll pause on that.
- [10:53]
D
Okay.
- [10:54]
B
Because that's one of the reasons that I think Vancouver and Minnesota were a good fit together. It's funny that we almost. I don't think we talked about Minnesota once, at least on our show. I don't know how much Minnesota was out there at all, but once you see the trade come down, it fits for the reason that you were starting to lay out there. Well, two reasons, actually. One is the reason you laid out great, which is that Z Bouilliam if not going to be Quinn Hughes, at least in that mold. Right. So from the Wild standpoint, you don't change the look of your team, really. I mean, you lose Marco Rossi, who seemingly, they've been pretty prepared to give up the first time they got a good offer at any point here. So he just becomes the price to upgrade from Z Bouilliam, who you hope might someday approximate Quinn Hughes in style, if not in substance for actual Quinn Hughes, who is an upgrade in every way and the timeline wise, much better for a team with Kirill Capriz off and Matt Baldy. But two, the reason that you make this kind of trade and the reason that I think the Wild can offer up what they offered up is because of what it does to their team and what it does conversely to Vancouver's team this year. These are two teams that just positioned themselves better for what they needed to do. You know, Minnesota is in the toughest division in hockey. They have to compete with Cale Makar. They have to compete with Miro Haskanen, and when he's healthy, they have to compete with Conor Hellebuk. That's a division you absolutely 100% have to have stars in. And they really only gave up again, like a second line center who they were dropping much further in the low up and much further in the lineup in the playoffs. And a pick, you know, that's going to come at the end of the first round, in addition to like a depth winger who again someday might be great, but doesn't serve their purposes of getting out of the Central Division. Vancouver, meanwhile, like they changed the look of their team for the better going forward here. They did not get better, but they change the look of their team and what they have to build around. And part of that is because they can wait two or three years for Z William to get to whatever he's going to get to. And they added that second line center, which is something they needed.
- [12:44]
D
It's a really good point because that's the other thing that we often do in trades. Winners and losers. Right? That's a classic. And it's classic for. For good reason. It's, it's fun to think about transactions in that frame. And some trades have clear winners and clear losers, like the Pittsburgh Edmonton trade. But the, but, but the truth is, is that trades are cooperative and a good trade should in fact, like the loser of a good trade should in fact be the 30 teams that couldn't find a way to get in the mix, right? Not, not the two teams that cooperated to better sort of fill each other's needs. Look, the Canucks. The only thing I disagreed with that you said there was the Canucks can afford to wait. The Canucks don't have an option. They were in 32nd in the NHL with Quinn Hughes in the lineup. Right? I mean, this season and this build has been a cataclysmic, right? I mean, it's time to just accept that the Vancouver Canucks made five top 10 picks between 2014 and 2019. And out of that six years of misery made the playoffs twice. And, and in some ways it feels like the Canucks failed rebuild. And that's what it is. Hasn't got the same guff that you know what, what happened in Arizona or Buffalo did, because at least they made the playoffs a couple times. At least they had some fun along the way. But not enough, right? Like not enough. They, they didn't even build a consistent playoff team around a Norris caliber defenseman. They were 32nd in the NHL this season, losing games at home to Buffalo while playing Quinn Hughes 30 minutes a night. Right? I mean, this was a failed rebuild. And you know, Jim Rutherford didn't execute the, the rebuild of it like the, the rebuilding part happened before him. And, and I think he took it all over when it was already well on its way to failing.
- [14:43]
B
Which is why you go get Jim Rutherford to try to be a consistent player. You don't go get him to Rebuild you, you, you bring Jim Rutherford in because you, he, you've seen him, Crosby's prime and you're trying to get him to do that.
- [14:52]
D
Well, 100 and, and he's a good team builder and we saw that in 20, 23, 24. The problem is, is that the Canucks had bled so much value, so much future value, so much just aggregate value across Jim Benning's tenure that, you know, I think by the time Rutherford came in, and I was saying this at the time, this is not me sort of doing hindsight stuff, I, I just thought they couldn't build a conventional team and durably win because I, I didn't see the depth of talent there. Like I thought they needed to engage in a short term rebuild then to try and sort of get back on track before Hughes's contract expired, simply because you, you sort of looked at all of the aging players on the books, the lack of prospects, the lack of cap space. I mean, it was grim. It was grim then. And, and the fact that, honestly the fact that they were able to, you know, identify guys like Kuzmenko and Dakota Joshua and Kiefer Sherwood, eventually Kevin Lankanen, the Ian Cole, like a bunch of good depth players and build a team that won the division and made it to the second round was an accomplishment that exceeded what my expectations would have been for that group's ability to succeed in the short term. And you know, you have to weight that heavily in evaluating the body of work that Rutherford and general manager Patrick Calvina put in. I just think fundamentally this team had bled far too much value. And it's little things. It's like, you know, with the 10th overall pick in 2019, the Canucks pick facility Pod Colson ahead of Cole Caufield and Matt Boldy. That, that on its own is not fatal, right? That on its own is not fatal. That sucks. But it's not a fatal mistake by any means because Pod Colson's a good NHL player. The problem that you bump into is Pod Colson's first NHL season. The Canucks don't really know how to use them. They change coaches midway through the year. You know, he makes progress in the second half of that year, but regresses as a, as a 21 year old. And then they change coaches again and Pod Colson can't gain the trust of Rick Talkett and now he's sort of wasting away as a depth piece in your organization without a coherent development plan. And then you trade him to the Edmonton Oilers in return for a fourth round pick and Then you trade that fourth round pick back to the Edmonton Oilers for evander Kane, who's 33 and not helping your team win now. And so it's like you see how mistakes compound, right? Or, or this team traded a third round pick to Jason Dickinson ahead of the expansion draft and then traded a second round pick to Chicago to get off of Jason Dickinson, who immediately bounced back and is good for Chicago. They signed Ilya McKayev to a four times $4 million contract and then paid a second round pick to get off of Ilya McCabe. And it's like, I can find 18 examples of this for you gentlemen, right? And it's just this slow bleed where it's not just that the club's making understandable evaluative mistakes because hockey's difficult to predict and these signings often go awry. It's that those mistakes then get compounded with the team continually paying Peter or stealing from Peter to pay Paul. Paul getting fat while Peter starves and going about their business while they're just constantly losing value. And so here we are, they've traded Quinn Hughes and they've sort of begun something of a new era with three young players under the age of 25 coming in and an additional first round pick. But that's insufficient. Like this still needs to be a multi year exercise in which the team dispenses, dispenses with team building considerations like we need a center, we need a winger, we need. You need nothing. You just need talent. You just need as much elite talent as you can find wherever you can find it, right? Because there's not a lot like look up and down this roster and even the players you like, their value is complicated, right? I mean, Kiefer Sherwood is going to be a player that the team will probably sell ahead of the deadline and he's going to be an easy piece to auction with multiple teams driving up his value. Tom Verlander would sort of meet that specification. Let's put the players that they acquired from Minnesota side, because those guys just came in. Almost everyone else on the Canucks roster would be complicated to trade, right? I mean, Thatcher Demko, we all know what he looks like at his peak, but he's been regularly hurt. He's signed for three years beyond the season. An extension that hasn't even kicked in yet, that has the same cap hit as Connor Hellebuck. That's complicated. Kevin Lankan in four and a half times, I think it's five. On the other side of this, with this being the first year of that deal. That's complicated. Philip Hronik, he's a top pair, right handed defenseman, you know that that's a player that you could probably move. But he signed through 2032, which is a long time from now, gentlemen. And he's got a full no move clause. So it's not like you can create some sort of auction like they were able to do with Quinn Hughes, right? He's going to have a fair bit of say in, in terms of where he goes. That's a complicated three dimensional transaction execute and you know, go up and down. Besser, Garland, debrece, they're all signed forever, right? Like there's just not a lot of hockey value in this lineup. And Elias Pederson, right, signed 11.6 million for another seven years. I mean there's just not a lot of hockey value in this organization. They've added some depth to that, but at the expense of their best trade chip. They need to spend a few years just. Honestly, in my mind, don't worry about what your team looks like. Don't worry about team building. Get talent. I mean, I'm not saying to wave the white flag, game in, game out. In fact, you want to have a structurally sound team that works hard, but you can't be like, oh, we need a center. You need as much raw talent as you can get on this roster. They need like a, like a diuretic of, of talent, an injection of it. And, and that's going to require, you know, selling as high as they can, treating players like they're, you know, depreciating assets. The players on this roster like they can't be, that's our first line center. It's like that's a depreciating asset, one that you have to manage really carefully. I don't think they're prepared to go there yet, even though they've made a start here. And I think that's where my concern begins to kick in, where they've done well on the Quinn Hughes trade, but it's insufficient. This has to be the start of a new mode of thinking about, you know, how this team has built across the last 14 years. Because if that doesn't change, you know, I don't think this the path or the results will for this team either.
- [21:31]
B
Where do you. Obviously you wouldn't draw the line. It doesn't sound like really anywhere on what to strip down, but where do you think they would draw? Because now they, they've gone through this process, they've talked to a good chunk of the league and pretty much knows what's available from a good chunk of the league. Now the guys that are available for Quinn Hughes are not the same guys who are available for a Jake De Brosk or a Marcus Patterson or guys like this, obviously, but they have a good idea for what's out there at least. Where would, where do you think they would draw the line on what becomes available on their roster over the next 12 to 18 to 24 months?
- [22:01]
D
Yeah, I mean, I think the players that we're going to be watching most seriously in the short term are going to be the expiring UFAs. And so some of those guys are like camp and Bluer. Bluer's injured too, so that's not a straightforward one as it stands. Evander Kane and certainly Sherwood. Right. So for now, that's who I'm going to be eyeing as we move forward here. You know, I think there are some other players, some older players, guys like Tyler Myers, that'll be worth monitoring here. He's got a full no move clause and is deeply rooted in Vancouver. So I, I think that's a complicated one. Although he sort of transfers his trade protections, transfer to a, you know, a modified clause after this season. So, so that maybe that's a little bit longer horizon, but that's one that I'll be monitoring too. Maybe Drew o', Connor, who has two years left, they're playing him at center right now. So, you know, are they showcasing his versatility? I, I sort of wonder about. Especially given that they scratched ATU Ratu, who's a young center. They're five on five points leader on Sunday in Newark. That's certainly something that, you know, I'm at least thinking about. Even if I, I, I wouldn't expect that to be a front line. Like I wouldn't expect him to be shopped aggressively. So yeah, I mean that for me is sort of the short list of, of who's realistic, who we should realistically be be monitoring. And then, you know, beyond that, what I'd say is in terms of where should they draw the line? Like, I, I am curious. Like they have an American League goaltender in Nikita Tolopilo who's come up and given them two really solid games. It's like a really big body. He's looked pretty good in NHL action and honestly he's generally been pretty successful in the American League too. And, and like, I'll kick this to Jesse for his opinion, but can, can you have 13 million in cap allocated to two goalies if you're Rebuilding, like does that make sense to anybody?
- [24:01]
A
Right? I totally agree with you. Not like with the goalies with Elias Pedersen. They have a bunch of talented players who are on contracts that are appropriate for a contending team. Like, like you're not going to be able to move them and they're, they're going to help you kind of now, but they're not going to help you do what you ultimately need to do. Like Thatcher Demko, I think everyone thinks that when he's at his best, but by the time this rebuild happens, that's going to, it's not going to be him. It's like Demko is not going to be the guy when this eventual team, when this team eventually tries to win again. It, it's the, the goalie contracts are contracts signed with contending in mind.
- [24:39]
D
Right.
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A
If a team like Edmonton had these two contracts signed, I don't think anyone would bat an eye at it. It's totally fine, acceptable way to structure your goaltending. But to sign those deals and then enter a rebuild a couple months later seems less than ideal. Seems less than ideal.
- [24:56]
D
So you know, while, while I say like, I'm not sure where they draw the line, like at some point, at some point, especially if you're not winning games, the bean counters or, or ownership directly is going to say, hey, should we be spending 13 million in goal when we've got a perfectly good American League goalie on, on the last year of an elc? Like, does that make sense for us? You know, at some point that's going to happen and so, you know, we'll see exactly where this all evolves. But I, I mean I listed for you guys the, the names that I'm going to be monitoring in the short term. But you know, as this, as this process unfolds and as the Canucks account for, you know, what this looks like going forward, I would expect, you know, some surprising names will ultimately have to be involved. Even if they do still intend for this to be a relatively quick, very Canucksy rebuild.
- [25:48]
B
Yeah, awesome stuff. Trans. There's so much more obviously to come with, with the story and the fallout of this, especially in Vancouver. I think we're at the start of a years long, really interesting process for them and Drance is going to be all over it. Drance, thanks so much for coming on.
- [26:01]
D
Anytime.
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A
Gentlemen.
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C
Mic check, one, two.
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D
Are we recording?
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All right, we're back. And Jesse, that Drown segment was outstanding. It was a lot about Vancouver. I wanted to get you before we move on subject wise, just to talk about the other half of this deal, which I think for a lot of people, like the urgent fallout of this is what to make of Minnesota now because they have been a good team and you talked about how their goaltending has been among the league's best to this point. Quinn Hughes joins this team and it certainly makes him better. There's no question about that. But playing in the Central, which is home to the best team in the NHL and quite possibly home to the second best team in the NHL, I think my question is, does it make them better by enough to actually come out of this division? Whether it's this year, next year, when they know they have him or know that they can have him, or in the future when they also still got to hold off Chicago and Utah who were going to be coming on hot. I think it's a fascinating kind of short term and long term analysis for the Wild.
- [29:36]
A
Yeah, it's super interesting. And like I, I'm so split on this because I feel like on one side he makes them so much better and not only does he make them better, he gives them what they've been missing. Like Caprisov is a superstar, but to me, when I watch Minnesota games, like I, I covered the series against Vegas last year and they pushed Vegas. But they don't feel dangerous in the way that Colorado or Edmonton or the other top teams in the west do. They feel like a good structured team with one superstar who, when the puck's on his stick, it's electric. But outside of him, they don't feel super dangerous. And Quinn Hughes is the type of player who can, not only is he dangerous, but I think he makes the whole team dangerous. The way, the way he transitions defense to offense. You're just on your heels the whole game when you're playing against Quinn Hughes and because he's out there so often it, that team is going to feel way more dangerous. So, like, part of me is super excited and I couldn't be higher on Minnesota. Then I look at the standings and I think the third seed in the Central is the spot of death. I don't think there's a single place in the entire NHL I'd want to be less than third in the Central because that means you're going to have to beat either Dallas or Colorado as the road team. And then if you somehow do that, your reward is the other one of them in the next round on the road. Again, that sounds impossible whether they've got Quinn Hughes or not. So I'm split. Like I love this move for Minnesota. I think there's so much better of a team. I also think they're pretty screwed in terms of where they are. Like there's a lot of hockey to be played. There can be injuries, an injury here or there for Colorado or Dallas and things suddenly look different. But as it currently sits, being the third best team in the Central feels pretty hopeless.
- [31:25]
B
It's interesting because I look at them in the team of recent memory that they kind of remind me the most of is Colorado, where you have this like extremely dynamic top two and maybe not two guy at the top of it in the game in Quinn Hughes and he's your obviously your Makar analog, but you also have more around and you have your favor who can kind of be your Taves or Brodine I think is still an outstanding defenseman. You know, Spurgeon still has plenty left in the tank. You got your dynamic game changing superstar and Capriz off. You got your two way horse and Matt Boldy which is kind of, kind of your either your ran in or your landiscog depending on your flavor there. I think there's plenty of Colorado in them, but they're going to have to go do it against actual Colorado. And so who doesn't have Renton anymore? Obviously they're on, he's on Dallas now but they're, they got Martin Nature who's in that spot. And so they remind me of the Colorado teams coming up. And now they have to try to knock off the Colorado team that remains and they have to get through potentially Dallas to do it. Like to me, I look at Minnesota and think it's very possible that they, I mean they shellacked Boston today. I think it's very possible that they can beat either of these teams in a series. But to your point, like the division as a whole is rock solid and that may be why they had to make a move like this is because they're the team that has kind of just sat there in the wild card for the better part of this generation of players. And so I do admire it by Bill Garon. I mean it doesn't necessarily make you the clear cut divisional favorite. Like I think you would want to be. But I think it's certainly beats just kind of languishing around the wild card. And you know, the jets are kind of interesting fallout and all this by the way too, because this has been the place they've occupied in this division. Now Minnesota has kind of usurped that from them. But I applaud Minnesota for going and doing this and now I'm fascinated to see what comes of it.
- [33:12]
A
Yep, I was talking to somebody about Connor Hellebuck's return last night and I actually brought that up of well, they look like they're the fourth best team in that division now, but that might be the best thing for them. Like I think I might rather be the wild card and get sent over to the Pacific side of things in the bracket and try to fight my way through there rather than trying to get through what's clearly the best division. Hockey. Yeah. I mean I use the word hopeless for third. But I will say this, adding Quinn Hughes gives you some hope. Like if they don't have Quinn Hughes as currently constructed before this trade, I think Minnesota is a good team that is clearly a playoff team that is clearly in one of the better teams in the league, but they had absolutely no shot at getting through Colorado and Dallas. With Quinn Hughes, there's at least a shot. Like there's, there's a chance that this dynamic player transforms the way this team looks. And maybe we're looking at Minnesota the way we look at Dallas and Colorado not that much further from now. They have the goaltending. Colorado and Dallas have good goalies also, but you could argue that Minnesota feels better about their goalies going into a series with one of those two teams. So at least there's a little hope. It's, it's, it's third place in the Central is a hopeless spot, but Quinn Hughes gives you a little I think.
- [34:22]
B
If you had told any Wild fan a week ago that you can hit the fast forward button on Z Bouilliam and not only are you going to hit the fast forward button on him, you're going to guarantee that, that he hits the absolute, absolute, absolute ceiling that he can get to, which is Quinn Hughes and the cost is Marco Rossi, Liam Ogre in a first round pick. I think a hundred out of a hundred Wild fans take that deal and that is effectively what they've done here. So I really like the look of it. If you want a handicap and kind of see where Vegas is at on them, the Wild were somewhere in the range of plus 4000 to plus 5000 to win the Stanley cup. According to our friends at BetMGM going into this trade now it's +2500 as an improvement. Still only ninth best, Jesse.
- [35:03]
A
And I think that's a huge improvement for one player in hockey. In a sport like hockey where this.
- [35:07]
B
Isn'T basketball, where almost twice as likely.
- [35:10]
A
Right, right. Like in a sport like basketball you add one player and it's like okay, well now you're probably going to win. Or football you add a quarterback. Like hockey is a sport that is tough for one player to make that kind of a wave in odds. So I was, yes, it's, they still got a long way to go. Like you said, ninth best. But that's a massive change in the odds. And that's probably so just they feel like there's about to be a bunch of Minnesota money coming in. So let's, let's not give them a great price on it. But yeah, that's, that's a, that's a big swing in odds for one player in hockey.
- [35:41]
B
Avalanche still the favorite at plus 3 10. I mean that tells you kind of what the market sees is still the gap between these teams. And it, it's interesting because I, I do think there will be some people who judge this trade solely on whether, you know, either A, you resign Quinn Hughes and you give yourself kind of unlimited more tries or you know, for, for a time, certainly for an era or B, you get it done while you have them in this year or two. But I do think there's something to be said for just changing kind of the, the identity of the Wild for some years has been just being that plus side of the middle of the pack. Now they're at least in this conversation that we're having and it's going to be really interesting to watch play out. There is another team, Jesse, that made a big trade that I think was going to probably dominate our show today right up until 7:30, 8 o' clock Eastern on Friday night when that all changed with the Quinn Hughes trade. Of course, that is the Edmonton Oilers. We've been calling for them to make a goalie move. They make one. It is Tristan Jari who we've discussed for them the cost, Stuart Skinner, Brett kulak and a 2029 second round pick.
- [36:44]
C
Your thoughts?
- [36:46]
A
It's, it's dis, it's, it's underwhelming for what I had hoped because they had been saying at least the reports we had seen from the insiders for what's felt like a couple Years at this point is that they weren't going to make a lateral move. And I do think this is a lateral move. I think Tristan Jari can be better than Stuart Skinner. They're very different stylistic goalies, and that's maybe what they're looking for. But he's not a clear upgrade there. I don't think anybody would say. There's no doubt Tristan Jari will play better in the playoffs, which is all that matters for the Oilers, than Stuart Skinner has. So that part of it is like you paid a lot. You brought in a goalie who's making double the salary that Skinner was making, who also has two years left on his deal. And it's a deal, it's a contract that less than a year ago was so bad that he cleared waivers because no team wanted to claim him. Like Tristan Jari is a good goalie and nobody wanted to claim him off waivers. So that just tells you that's. That's the appetite for that deal. So you bring in that deal and it's like if they had traded for. We just talked about Demko. If they had traded for Demko, it's like, well, if, if that's your. Demko is healthy. He is an upgrade over Stuart Skinner. I keep throwing out UC Soros, even though there's no indication that Nashville wants to trade him. If you trade for UC Soros, there's no question we have upgraded at this position. Whereas I think Jariel, he's. He's more of an instincts goalie like Stuart Skinner is a technical big blocking goalie who plays his angles well. He gets in the right spots and he lets the puck hit him. Tristan Jari, very different type of goalie. He is not as structured. He's kind of just free flowing. He reads, plays really well. Great anticipation. If you told me, tell me where Tristan Jari is better than Stuart Skinner. To me, it's anticipation. It's. It's anticipating passes, it's predicting and reading the play and getting to spots faster than Stuart Skinner can. Tristan Jari is not the most athletic guy, but he reads the play so well that he does get across. And he had in his debut the other night, he had a couple really big saves where I, I loved his anticipation. So I think there are reasons if you're an Oilers fan to have hope that it is an upgrade in goal, but for what they paid, the contract they took on, it's a risk. This is not a guaranteed upgrade. And he very well. I mean, his, his playoff stats aren't. He hasn't had a big sample size, but they are worse than what we've seen from Stuart Skinner. So it's going to be super interesting that we. We've been waiting for this move for so long and then we get the move and still feels unresolved to me.
- [39:21]
B
We've seen the upside of Stuart Skinner and it's funny to me because we talked about how difficult of a deadline this is going to be for the Penguins to manage. This is kind of a perfect trade for the Penguins as far as I'm concerned because you still have a goalie who if you get into the playo you have a goalie who can get hot and I think he can get hotter than Tristan Jari can and gives you a better chance to steal a series. He also has at least as good a chance to implode. And so that's that. But that was always there with Jari too. You also got either an upgrade on defense in Brett Kulak or a very nice deadline trade chip in Brett Kulak. Brett Kulak's a nice player. I think any if the Penguins fall out of it, you could trade Brett Kulak and get some more for your future out of this and you get the pick. This was a perfect line straddling move by Kyle Dubas to not hamstring his team's current pursuit of what they're doing and also get more future capital and potentially a fair bit more depending on what they do with Brett Kulak. So for the Oilers it felt like doing something to do something to be honest. And for the Penguins it felt like completely taking advantage of that.
- [40:26]
A
Yeah. And from like the Penguins goalie perspective it sets them up well because they. They had this contract was a problem for them. Even though Jari bounced back this year, the contract was not ideal. They waved dealing with it last. Yeah, they. They were dealing with it last year. He was. He was counting 5 million against their cap while playing in the AHL at one point last season. This is not even a year ago and now and. And it just felt hopeless. Like they last season they were the only team worse than them and goal stage above expected as a team were the Flyers who were an absolute train wrecking goal. Both the Pennsylvania teams have actually turned it around and net but like the feeling if you're a Penguins fan of your goaltending has completely shifted because now you've got a talented goalie and Stuart Skinner who has played in cup finals and you hope that playing goalie for the Edmonton Oilers is really difficult. I talk to goalie coaches I talk to goalies. I talk to like private goalie coaches. I hear it over and over and over. It's. It's the pressure of playing behind a team with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl where the. You're getting the blame every time you don't win. You can win every game up until the last game and lose that game and you're still getting the blame. I think there's a chance Stuart Skinner, we see another level from him in Pittsburgh. So if you're the Penguins and it's. And it's no risk because he's a UFA at the end of this year. So you get a trial run with a talented goalie who could. Who's now entering in, I think an easier situation to play goalie. And so there's that upside. You've got a young goalie in Archer she loves who's looked really good at flashes this season. He was excellent in the AHL last year. He's showing good development. Sergey Murashov is. Has looked the part every time I've seen him. It's a limited sample size in the NHL, but he's looked good all of a sudden. The Penguins, their goaltending situation, feels very optimistic going forward. I totally agree. They nailed this trade and for the Oilers, maybe they did. I mean if Jari I got. I will say this. He's got so many ties to Edmonton. He lives in Edmonton. He bought a house there because he spent his junior hockey days for the Oil Kings. Watching him come off the ice with the. And he had his Oilers pads on him writing something right now. I just talked to the people at Vaughn about how they got him his Oilers pads so quick for that debut. Watching him skate off the ice in those Oilers pads, like there is the potential. I know it's. It's not like we're kind of down on the Oilers on this trade, but there is the potential that this trade is awesome and it is the move that puts them over the top. And Tristan Jari wins a cup in Edmonton and it's. And it's a fairy tale ending. So I think there's a chance it works out for Edmonton. But if we're talking about percentages and probabilities, it seems like this wasn't the move they needed.
- [42:57]
B
You mentioned Mirashov real quick there on Pittsburgh. Best save percentage in the AHL as well. So even if it's a limited sample, I mean for a 21 year old to have that the best safe percentage in the AHL is quite impressive on the Oiler side of things. I think you almost have to look at this and say they're taking something closer to the Carolina approach to goaltending, which is that you're just trying to have extreme predictability. It's. You're not looking for someone who's gonna steal you a series. What you're looking for is someone that like, you know, if. If everyone in front of them kind of does what they're. What you expect of them to do and what they can do that you're gonna get by on that. And so I think they've just kind of narrowed the band there. You're not gonna get. Stuart Skinner in these last couple playoff runs for Edmonton has had some stretches. Granted those are only like four to six game stretches where he's been excellent. I don't think you're going to see that level from Jari personally. You're the goalie guy. I'm not. But that's just, you know, going on his recent history. Right, That's. But I think you're going to have higher lows. There's going to be a higher floor from what you're going to get in the goaltending position. And maybe that's all you need when you have the best player in the world.
- [44:00]
A
To me, the difference between Carolina and Edmonton, and I agree with you, if they got an excellent 1B behind Jari, I would feel so much different about this because the way Carolina has approached it is we're going to have a bunch of like B level goalies and we're going to play really well in front of them and we're just going to hope that at the right time one of them, and like Freddie Anderson has played elite hockey for stretches. Peter Kachetkov, not an elite goalie, but for stretches he has played well. And they're just hoping they get that stretch. Brandon Bussey has stepped in and been awesome for them this year. He's like breaking every record that's ever been set by a goalie for an undrafted kid that came out of nowhere in Edmonton with Calvin Pickard back there, like Tristan Jari, it's all on him. Like Tristan Jari has to do it. Whereas if they had an. If they like. I know it doesn't work with the cat because Jar is saying, but if they had traded for Tristan Jari and not sent Stuart Skinner the other way, I would be heaping praise on the Oilers because to me, a tandem with those two is. It's like, well, one of them is going to be good enough. Like if If Jari's not getting it done the first couple games of a series, we can turn to Skinner if it. Or the other way around. Whereas right now, it just feels like they. They traded a un. Like an unpredictable starter for another unpredictable starter. And I know. I watched the press conference and Bowman said we loved his consistency and that was the main thing we brought in. And it's like, well, yeah, but this is the goalie who got waved to the AHL last year. I don't see how you can say that that's the strength you were looking for and that's the trait you were looking for in a goalie and then bring up and then bring in a goalie who has not been consistent. He did have a stretch of a few years where he was an all star every year for Pittsburgh, and he was consistent. But it's been a long time since. Since Tristan Jari's looked like that.
- [45:43]
B
There are nearly three months until the trade deadline. There's nothing that says they can't still go find that one B, right? I mean, like, Detroit's doing pretty well right now, so I don't think Cam Talbot, like, is. Is necessarily a topic right now, but depending on where things are at come March, Detroit's got Sebastian Cosa down on the hl that may need a look at some point, too.
- [46:02]
A
I.
- [46:03]
B
If I'm Edmonton, I would keep in regular contact there and just see what the status is. There's other guys like that. I'm bringing up Talbot because he's backyard here. You get my point. Like, you got time to keep surveying the situation. 1B's are going to shake loose before the deadline there.
- [46:15]
A
There are quite a few teams with three Alex solid goalies. Like, yeah, yeah, Buffalo's got three. We just talked about Pittsburgh. We just mentioned all three of theirs. Like, maybe, maybe you go get another one of those guys. Or. Or Montreal with Jacob Fowler coming up and he's looked awesome right away. Like, maybe if. If. If the Canadians decide, okay, Fowler has proven enough, we're going to keep him up. Well, maybe Jakob Dobish, I like, that's.
- [46:38]
B
That's a.
- [46:39]
A
Like, that's a guy. Jakob Dovish. Is he a. Is he a superstar goalie? No.
- [46:42]
D
But.
- [46:43]
A
What. I feel a lot better about Edmonton. If they had him as an option to go with Jari. I would feel so much better about that, about the odds of you getting the goaltending you need, because this position's hard to predict if you don't have Connor Hellebach or Igor Shusturkin. Or one of these guys, you don't know what you're gonna get. That's what's so hard about it. And it's why GMs have struggled so much with it. And it's why you can't trade for a goalie because once they get one that they, that they believe in is going to give them that every night. They don't want to let him go. So I just think increasing your odds by giving you guys who can hit that level at certain stretches, I just think given giving yourselves more than one option at that would, would help Edmonton a lot. So we'll see. Like I said, I'm rooting for the storybook ending. I think it'd be awesome to see Tristan Jari go to Edmonton and under the bright lights. I will say this. I mentioned how hard it is to play goalie for the Edmonton Oilers because of the bright lights and the expectations and how I think Tristan Jari, his demeanor is built for that. Like he is just flatline. Like the guy does not get excited. He doesn't get down. He is like as flatline, like such a professional, such a, like calm guy. Like he's, there's just a calmness to him. I think he is built for, for that situation better than, than most.
- [47:57]
B
Yeah. All right, let's take a quick break right there. I'll be right back on the athletic hockey show.
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B
To $15 per month required new customer offer for first three months only. Speed slow after 35 gigabytes if network's busy, taxes and fees extra. See mintmobile.com all right, we are back and we are joined now by Matt Fairburn from Buffalo. Matt, you had a great story coming into the weekend along with Tim Graham that I want to get at right off the top here. The lead of that story kind of says it all. The Buffalo Savers have been holding internal discussions about replacing general manager Kevin Adams. It's interesting timing for this because they are, they are on a little win streak coming into Sunday night and as we are recording this, they are ahead. So I guess let's just start here. Do you anticipate this being an imminent thing? Is, is, are we at the point where this is results dependent or, or where, where do things stand here?
- [51:27]
C
I don't get the sense that one game is going to swing things, but I suppose when you're, you're talking about sports owners, you never quite know what will kind of, you know, change their direction a little bit. But they have three days off before their next home game and I think that's really the, the timeline that, that we're looking at here. Just because of the way things have been in that arena specifically directed at Kevin Adams most of the time when the team is not performing well. So you know, they got off to a tough start on this road trip, lost the first three games of it. Philadelphia, Winnipeg, Calgary, they held on to beat Edmonton. Then they had a same kind of hold on for dear life type of win against the Canucks. And like you said, they're doing well against the Kraken. But this is sort of, you know, this is five plus years on the job for Kevin Adams. So I don't anticipate that that one, one game is going to necessarily change the direction too much.
- [52:28]
B
What do you think prompted like the timing of this happening? Because you know, to your point, five and a half years. I think we all know what's happened with the Sabers over the last five and a half years, but what's different today than would have been the case in May of, last of May of this year?
- [52:43]
C
I think the big difference is probably, it's probably if you focus on, you know, the business part of this and like I mentioned, the, the atmosphere in the home arena has been. They've gotten better attendance and they've had some really good crowds, but the crowd's also been pretty quick to turn and there's been multiple times where they've chanted for Kevin Adams to be fired. I think the environment now is different than it was, you know, a year ago in that there's a logical candidate internally to replace him. And there's a lot to.
- [53:20]
B
Being Jarmo Kekalainen.
- [53:22]
C
Yeah, Jarmo Kecolinen who they hired as a senior advisor in late May, early June, ish. You know, after the season they went through a pretty extensive process to find a senior advisor, get more experience in their front office. And now because of that they have a logical place to turn. And they haven't had a GM with prior GM experience since Terry Pegula has owned the team. And so, you know, there's some of those factors at play. And I would also just say, as you know, the, the hockey calendar is a little bit different and so a lot of teams will make these types of changes in the off season, but doing it in season, you know, every move you make impacts your team this year, next year, sometimes two, three years down the road as we just saw in Vancouver and Minnesota. So there's never really a right or wrong time to consider something like this. And the Sabers have a lot of hockey business to handle. They have Alex Tuck unsigned and if that's not going to resolve, then that becomes a situation where he might need to be traded. They have Zach Benson, Josh Doane and Michael Kesselring, all expiring, you know, due for contracts. They'll be restricted free agents this summer. And obviously things aren't going well. Right. They're in last place in the Eastern Conference, and as tight as the east is, I think there's a, you know, there's probably a morale type of reason to do this, too. You know, not just from the fan base, like I mentioned, but maybe give. Give the team a bit of a jolt and maybe they're not quite out of it if they act swiftly and, you know, this could have a ripple effect. You know, it's. It's one, you know, one name that we're talking about right now. But, you know, there's a lot of moving parts to this, which is why I think, you know, it could take, you know, it's why the timing isn't at the whim of a game here or there. It's something that they're kind of thinking through and figuring out how it all looks now.
- [55:18]
A
You sort of nailed it in terms of bringing up those contracts, but, yeah, that's. That's kind of where I was going to go is like, how much of this do you think is if we're going to make a change, if we're going to have someone else, like, leading this ship, we want that person to have a say in how we handle these, the Alex Tuck situation and the other contracts coming up before the deadline, because obviously that once the deadline passes, that takes away one of your options in the direction you want to go. How much of it do you think is if we're going to make a change? If we decide to do this, the new person should have a say in this, in these decisions that are going to shape the way this team goes.
- [55:50]
C
Yeah, I think that has to be a big piece of it. I mean, you look at the current landscape in the NHL and when do you have a chance to impact your team from a roster building standpoint? Free agency has become pretty thin pretty quick already for next summer, and it's already not the ideal option for Buffalo in particular to be building a team because of, you know, the challenges they have attracting talent to play for a team that hasn't made the playoffs for 14 straight years. So the moves you make now are really setting you up not just to maybe try to get your footing here and make a push to climb the standings, but they're setting you up to build your roster for next year. And beyond. And there needs to be, I think, you know, and this is me, you know, just speaking my opinion here is there needs to be a sign to the players, to the fan base, to the league that they're taking this situation seriously, right. That they're trying to climb out of this and turn this around. And with five plus years of Kevin Adams, they haven't made the playoffs. The closest they came is 91 points a couple of years ago in 22, 23. They've gone backwards in the two years since. They've had a lot of injuries. Kevin Adams resume as a general manager is not, you know, without some, some strong moves over the years. But the build as constructed hasn't worked. And so to your point, you want the, you know, if you're going to make a move, you want the next person to get their hands on things as soon as possible. I think the good part of this is if it is Jarmo Kekalainen who takes over, he's been really present as a senior advisor. He has been there almost every day at practice. He was there throughout training camp, he was on some road trips. Even though he's technically based in Columbus, he has been around the team a lot. And I know these positions can vary from team to team. Some senior advisors are in their home office year round, but Yarmo Kekalainen is absolutely boots on the ground and very hands on. So I feel like he's already put some of his stamp on this roster since he got here.
- [58:03]
B
If it does go that way and it is a change in the GM chair, does that signal what, what does that signal to you about like what the Sabers want to do? Because I, you know, I don't know that there's. You talked about those boos. I don't know that those booze really get any lightened. If it just seems like three more years of rebuild and try to do this process again, maybe I'm wrong, but I would imagine that doesn't actually really change the direction or anything that they're looking to do here.
- [58:27]
C
I will say that if they make this move before the next home game, I'm fascinated to see what the crowd will be like because I have never in my time covering pro sports seen a fan base as unanimous towards a move as, as this one. And that in particular would make it, at least in the short term. They would have a lot of gratitude, I think, and a lot of excitement about. Like I said, you kind of need to signal to them that you're taking this seriously, that it's not just going to be more of the same. And it's not going to be, you know, just stay the course and be patient. And I think if you talk to people around hockey like Buffalo, the roster isn't that far off. Agreed. Not, it's not, you know, Stanley cup ready, but it's not that far off from turning a corner. You know, they've been at this for a while with some young players, some of whom have started to, to make their way into the NHL. And, you know, Noah Osl and Isaac Roseanne starting to look like capable NHLers. They have a pretty good core to build around. And if you can convince, you know, maybe whether it's Alex Tuck, maybe he sticks around, maybe he doesn't. I think either way, as long as you can get the buy in from some of these other pieces, particularly Tage Thompson and Rasmus Dahleen, and then you can make the right moves around that core, you can, I think, turn this thing around pretty quickly. I don't think you need to tear it down to the studs. And that could be another impetus for making a move like this is if you look around and say, you know, the players might not buy in by the time you get to the end of the season, it might be too late for some of these guys, especially for an Alex Tuck as he gets closer to free agency. So there's definitely, you know, a piece of that. And I don't know that this would change their direction dramatically because this is not a team that is looking to tear it down and hit the reset button. They recognize the urgency needed to end this playoff drought from a hockey standpoint, but from a business standpoint, you just can't continue to do this to your paying customers too much longer.
- [60:40]
B
I agree. And I think, I think part of it is even a couple of the moves Adams has made, ironically, like that Paterka trade. We all went into thinking this is a tough situation for them to be in, similar obviously to the Dylan Cousins one. I didn't think the Dylan Cousins one went very well for them. But, but Paterka, you come out of this with Josh D. And Michael Kesselring. I think they got closer in that trade, ironically, even though it was a situation that they kind of got backed into. Like, that's something that, you know, when the next person takes over, whenever that is, that's suddenly an asset to have a player like that in the fold. And it's a playoff type player. It's the kind of player I think you, you would be looking to acquire anyway. So I, I do think I agree with you that there are the pieces in Buffalo. There's a pretty solid collection there. It does entail keeping a few key guys around. And so I think that's a very good point, that if it's inspiring some kind of reason to want to stick around in an Alex Tuck, even in a Bowen Byron, who I think is one year out, one year out there, you know, these are important players to be thinking about how they view the organization.
- [61:39]
C
Yeah, absolutely. And you have, you know, Bowen Byram has another year on his contract after this one before being an unrestricted free agent. But I think you look at that Paterka trade and you say another move or two like this helps you. And doing them quickly, doing them, you know, proactively instead of getting, you know, kind of backed into a situation. That's where if it is Yarmo Kekalainen, we've seen him be pretty bold in the past, right? And he's not afraid to go in and identify some players that. That don't fit and ship them out. So he's been aggressive. He's all, look, his resume as a general manager isn't perfect. I think the irony of, you know, teams seeking out general managers who have done it before, they've been fired usually from their other job. Right. So obviously there's going to be some holes in their resume. But the experience that he has in a small market like Columbus, attracting talent there, building a roster there, you know, I think his drafts were pretty solid over the years. And, you know, he got that team to the playoffs, what I believe five times during his. His time there. So not perfect, but I think in this particular situation, he's somebody. He's obviously still hungry to be a general manager. Unlike some senior advisors. Right? Some senior advisors are. There's a big emphasis on the senior part of it. And I feel like Kekalainen is, is still, you know, ready to, to take the reins if need be. So he'd be an interesting candidate for sure.
- [63:13]
A
I'll never forget that deadline in Columbus when, like, Bobrovsky was on his way out, was on his way out. We're all expecting them to just sell everything and then. No, they were like the biggest buyers in the NHL. That deadline like that, when I think of Jarmo Kekalainen, that's what everybody remembers, is that bold deadline. I want to see him take over in Buffalo just for that alone, just to see what we can get on this deadline. Maybe he'll surprise us. Maybe. Maybe it's moves to convince a Guy like Alex Tuck to stick around. I know Alex Tuck loves Buffalo about as much as any player in the NHL. Like, I remember talking to him about it when he first got traded for Jack Eichel. Like, I feel like if you give him a reason to stay, he does want to stay and try and try to win in Buffalo. Like, that's his preference is to win in Buffalo. He obviously wants to win, but I don't know. I could see Kekalainen shaking things up and maybe things feel a little bit differently.
- [64:03]
C
I think Alex Tuck is. There's a case to be made that his best financial situation would be to stay in Buffalo. You know, I think it's the only place he can get eight years. And so when you're talking about total dollars, you know, there's a chance it could be the best situation. He's got a lot of leverage, obviously, you know, considering they would not like to lose a fan favorite locker room favorite player who happens to also be a 35 plus goal type of guy. But, you know, if he hits the open market, he will be a big prize, right? He'll be one of the better players at forward on the open market. But will somebody go, you know, seven years and will they best that Adrian Kempe number? Probably not. Maybe. I don't know. Things could get crazy on July 1st. I guess none of us really know. But there are reasons for him to think, you know what, this could potentially be the best situation. But I think you're right. He has to believe that he can win. And that's. That's a piece of this with Kevin Adams is that if you went line by line on his resume, every move he made, all the trades he made, I don't think you would come out of it thinking he was totally clueless, right? That he was, you know, terrible at this job. But I think what sort of happened in the last year or two is that the pressure of the situation has started to get to him. Him for sure. And that's shown up in some of his public comments and, you know, his overall demeanor, I think. And that job is as much about leadership as it is about the personnel moves that you make. And, you know, to your point about inspiring some belief in Alex Tuck, it might be past the point of no return. And when it comes to Kevin Adams, like, it might require somebody else in that chair to convince him that this team is heading in a different direction than it has been in the last five years.
- [65:59]
B
Certainly a ton to watch in Buffalo over the coming days. Matt's going to have outstanding coverage on all of it. That is going to do it for us. Thanks for listening to this episode of the Athletic Hockey Show. The line for Wednesday's show has been set at plus or minus one and a half. Sean's me personally, I take the over. Gentile McIndone Corrado will have you covered. Then we'll talk to you soon.
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A
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