The Athletic Hockey Show — "Which NHL Starts Are Tricks or Treats?"

Hosts: Max Bultman, Mark Lazarus
Date: October 27, 2025

Episode Overview

This episode embraces the Halloween spirit by examining hot and cold NHL starts under a “trick or treat” lens. Max Bultman and Mark Lazarus analyze whether surprising team and player performances are sustainable (“treats”), or likely to regress (“tricks”). They dive into teams like the Utah Mammoth, New Jersey Devils, Pittsburgh Penguins, and more, plus spotlight intriguing player storylines. Regular guest Jesse Granger joins for the goaltending-focused "Granger Zone."

Key Segments and Discussion Points

Utah Mammoth: For Real or Mirage?

[03:36–09:55]

• "Treat" Verdict: Both Max and Mark side with the Mammoth as a legitimate emerging force.

  • Max sees a “five-headed monster” up front: “Now that we've been talking about this talent coming up through the pipeline for years and it's all here… there's no reason to think that the Utah Mammoth are some kind of a fluke.” (Max, 04:24)
  • Nick Schmaltz is noted for unsustainable scoring, but as Mark says: “He is in a contract year, I believe, and that's certainly a powerful motivator.” (Mark, 04:46)

• Analysis:

  • Mammoth are excelling 5-on-5 (+9 goal diff over first 9–10 games), not just relying on luck (PDO).
  • Concerns remain about sustainability when play tightens, especially if much of their offense is rush-based (Mark: “If you're dependent on rush offense, that's what dries up.” 05:50).
  • Despite hot start, Utah’s lack of a “proof of concept” over a full season leaves some uncertainty.

New Jersey Devils: Special Teams Dynamos

[09:55–14:48]

• Comparison: Max likens hot-starting Mammoth to last year’s fast, fun Devils.
• Devils’ Strengths:
  • Strong special teams, top-tier PK/PP, but surprisingly middling at 5-on-5.
  • Jack Hughes is “probably not going to shoot 22.2% the rest of the season, but…he can sustain this if he stays healthy.” (Max, 10:13)
• **Blue line depth and emergence of award-caliber forwards (Nico Hischier, possible Selke favorite) highlighted: “As well rounded and deep a blue line as maybe there is in the NHL.” (Mark, 11:05)
• Skepticism: Metrics indicate they’re “outperforming their numbers,” raising sustainability concerns.
  • “They are outperforming their metrics…that’s what happens when you have good special teams.” (Max, 12:14)

Pittsburgh Penguins: Hot Start or Fool's Gold?

[14:48–18:52]

• “Trick” Consensus: Both agree Pittsburgh’s solid early record is illusory.

  • “This is the PDO train at work…Tristan Jarry and Artur Silovs…[are] at 918 right now. This is not real.” (Max, 14:57)
  • Malkin’s early surge dismissed as a familiar October blip: “He does this every season…and then he falls off a cliff.” (Max, 14:57)
  • Mark reassures anxious fans to “enjoy the good times…water will always find its level.” (16:26)

• Notable Moment: Max recalls the Blackhawks’ tank attempts and how even a surprise win or loss can flip a lottery outcome, demonstrating the futility of “perfect” tanking. [17:18]

Dallas Stars: Slight Malaise or Real Issue?

[20:34–25:41]

• Mark expresses unease: “I just feel like something is off with the Stars.” (Mark, 21:34)

• Max points to new coach and “October messiness,” adding, “I have a tough time getting worked up about any of these teams that continually make long runs” (Max, 21:43) but cautions their end-of-season slump last year should not be repeated.

• Verdict: Veteran-heavy teams like Dallas can coast somewhat but need to ensure they don’t go “limping into the playoffs.” (Max, 23:28)

Minnesota Wild & What "Early" Means

[25:41–29:52]

• Max raises the possibility of the Wild missing the playoffs after committing major money to Kaprizov, which would cause major backlash among fans.
• When is it not “early”?
  • Thanksgiving is the consensus mark for when season sample size gets “real.”
  • Mark: “You can dig that hole. It's pretty easy to let something slip away from you over the course of 70 games…It’s really hard to dig out when you put yourself in that hole.” (28:27)

Connor McDavid and the Edmonton Oilers

[29:52–35:56]

• McDavid’s low goal output (on pace for 8) is seen as highly likely to improve:
  • “Jack Hughes isn’t going to shoot 22% forever. Connor McDavid is not going to shoot three and a half percent forever.” (Max, 30:14)
• Issues Beyond the Superstars:
  • Oilers’ depth scoring is non-existent; the pressure is immense on McDavid and Draisaitl.
• Depth Concerns:
  • Max: “This team doesn’t have the depth the previous two teams have…It doesn’t feel like a Stanley Cup contender to me beyond, you know, the three-headed monster at the top.”
• Trade deadline speculation: What will new GM Stan Bowman do to bolster the bottom-six?
  • “He’s never been shy about [moving picks for rentals] and there’s going to be even more impetus because of the McDavid contract situation.” (Max, 35:27)

Jack Eichel and the Vegas Golden Knights

[35:56–39:04]

• Eichel off to a “heart trophy” caliber start, with scoring trending higher:
  • “If he can become a full 40-goal guy, it puts him in a completely different echelon…He’s getting there now.” (Max, 36:49)
• Notably, Vegas now splits up Eichel and Mitch Marner, offering matchup nightmares for opponents and maximizing line depth.
• “This is the model for championship teams—to have two mega lines.” (Max, 38:15)

The Granger Zone: Montreal Canadiens’ Goaltending Revolution

[41:25–48:40]

• Goaltending drama: Jesse Granger analyses Sam Montembeault's bad start (.842 SV%, worst in the league, [42:07]) and Jakob Dobes' sensational arrival (5-0, .940 SV%, 10 goals saved above expected).
  • “He looks like he’s one of these 6’6” or 6’7” goalies…He presents himself massively to the puck.” (Jesse, 43:13)
• Max asks the eternal question:
  • “Why is goaltending so stupid? How do guys just forget how to play? How do guys come out of nowhere and then they're the best goalie in the world?” (Max, 44:18)
• Jesse attributes volatility to razor-thin margins and the unprecedented depth of goalie talent in the NHL.

Tampa Bay Lightning: Time Finally Catches Up?

[48:40–51:38]

• The hosts sense age “creeping up” on Tampa and see the team “looking slow” (Max, 48:56).
• Mark notes Andre Vasilevskiy's new technical approach may actually lessen twitch/reaction skills:
  • “He's doing everything right and then the puck’s just missing his glove by a centimeter…” (Jesse, 51:29)
• Both doubt the Lightning can still flip the switch as easily as in past seasons.

New York Rangers: Disappointing and Underperforming

[52:05–56:04]

• Fourth-best expected goal share in the league, yet dead last in the conference.
• Igor Shesterkin described as “out of his mind” but still losing because of team ineptitude (Jesse, 53:37):
  • “He had a .957 save percentage and a losing record. .960 losing record. Almost impossible to do, but the Rangers have found a way.” (Jesse, 55:04)
• Lament lack of youth infusion, and skepticism that coaching changes were enough.

Notable Quotes and Moments

• On season samples:
  • “If my NFL team was 1–1 after 10 games, I wouldn’t think anything of it. Even at 0–2, it’s not the end of the world. You start getting antsy at game five… that’s like 30–35 hockey games.” (Mark, 27:12)
• On the Penguins’ hot streak:
  • “Enjoy the good times while they’re there, because they are not persistent when you’re in this state…water will always find its level.” (Mark, 16:26)
• On McDavid’s slow start:
  • “He can just make goals materialize out of thin air whether he’s scoring them or not.…It is so unbelievably top heavy right now [in Edmonton].” (Max, 31:20)
• On goaltending randomness:
  • “The difference between success and failure [for goalies] is so small. … you can go from being great to being terrible or from terrible to being great that easily.” (Jesse Granger, 44:42)

Timestamps for Major Segments

• Utah Mammoth: 03:36–09:55
• New Jersey Devils: 09:55–14:48
• Pittsburgh Penguins: 14:48–18:52
• Dallas Stars: 20:34–25:41
• Early Season vs. Real Season: 25:41–29:52
• McDavid/Oilers: 29:52–35:56
• Jack Eichel/Golden Knights: 35:56–39:04
• The Granger Zone: Canadiens Goalies: 41:25–48:40
• Lightning: 48:40–51:38
• Rangers: 52:05–56:04

Final Thoughts

This lively episode is packed with insightful, stats-driven hockey banter and healthy skepticism about both team and individual hot streaks. The “trick or treat” framework brings an entertaining edge, while the hosts’ willingness to air doubts—even about perennial contenders—makes for a brutally honest and informative breakdown of early NHL storylines.

Summary by The Athletic Hockey Show Summarizer.