Which NHL starts are tricks or treats?

Summary

The Athletic Hockey Show — "Which NHL Starts Are Tricks or Treats?"

Hosts: Max Bultman, Mark Lazarus
Date: October 27, 2025

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Episode Overview

This episode embraces the Halloween spirit by examining hot and cold NHL starts under a “trick or treat” lens. Max Bultman and Mark Lazarus analyze whether surprising team and player performances are sustainable (“treats”), or likely to regress (“tricks”). They dive into teams like the Utah Mammoth, New Jersey Devils, Pittsburgh Penguins, and more, plus spotlight intriguing player storylines. Regular guest Jesse Granger joins for the goaltending-focused "Granger Zone."

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Key Segments and Discussion Points

Utah Mammoth: For Real or Mirage?

[03:36–09:55]

• "Treat" Verdict: Both Max and Mark side with the Mammoth as a legitimate emerging force.

  • Max sees a “five-headed monster” up front: “Now that we've been talking about this talent coming up through the pipeline for years and it's all here… there's no reason to think that the Utah Mammoth are some kind of a fluke.” (Max, 04:24)
  • Nick Schmaltz is noted for unsustainable scoring, but as Mark says: “He is in a contract year, I believe, and that's certainly a powerful motivator.” (Mark, 04:46)

• Analysis:

  • Mammoth are excelling 5-on-5 (+9 goal diff over first 9–10 games), not just relying on luck (PDO).
  • Concerns remain about sustainability when play tightens, especially if much of their offense is rush-based (Mark: “If you're dependent on rush offense, that's what dries up.” 05:50).
  • Despite hot start, Utah’s lack of a “proof of concept” over a full season leaves some uncertainty.

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New Jersey Devils: Special Teams Dynamos

[09:55–14:48]

• Comparison: Max likens hot-starting Mammoth to last year’s fast, fun Devils.
• Devils’ Strengths:
  • Strong special teams, top-tier PK/PP, but surprisingly middling at 5-on-5.
  • Jack Hughes is “probably not going to shoot 22.2% the rest of the season, but…he can sustain this if he stays healthy.” (Max, 10:13)
• **Blue line depth and emergence of award-caliber forwards (Nico Hischier, possible Selke favorite) highlighted: “As well rounded and deep a blue line as maybe there is in the NHL.” (Mark, 11:05)
• Skepticism: Metrics indicate they’re “outperforming their numbers,” raising sustainability concerns.
  • “They are outperforming their metrics…that’s what happens when you have good special teams.” (Max, 12:14)

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Pittsburgh Penguins: Hot Start or Fool's Gold?

[14:48–18:52]

• “Trick” Consensus: Both agree Pittsburgh’s solid early record is illusory.

  • “This is the PDO train at work…Tristan Jarry and Artur Silovs…[are] at 918 right now. This is not real.” (Max, 14:57)
  • Malkin’s early surge dismissed as a familiar October blip: “He does this every season…and then he falls off a cliff.” (Max, 14:57)
  • Mark reassures anxious fans to “enjoy the good times…water will always find its level.” (16:26)

• Notable Moment: Max recalls the Blackhawks’ tank attempts and how even a surprise win or loss can flip a lottery outcome, demonstrating the futility of “perfect” tanking. [17:18]

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Dallas Stars: Slight Malaise or Real Issue?

[20:34–25:41]

• Mark expresses unease: “I just feel like something is off with the Stars.” (Mark, 21:34)

• Max points to new coach and “October messiness,” adding, “I have a tough time getting worked up about any of these teams that continually make long runs” (Max, 21:43) but cautions their end-of-season slump last year should not be repeated.

• Verdict: Veteran-heavy teams like Dallas can coast somewhat but need to ensure they don’t go “limping into the playoffs.” (Max, 23:28)

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Minnesota Wild & What "Early" Means

[25:41–29:52]

• Max raises the possibility of the Wild missing the playoffs after committing major money to Kaprizov, which would cause major backlash among fans.
• When is it not “early”?
  • Thanksgiving is the consensus mark for when season sample size gets “real.”
  • Mark: “You can dig that hole. It's pretty easy to let something slip away from you over the course of 70 games…It’s really hard to dig out when you put yourself in that hole.” (28:27)

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Connor McDavid and the Edmonton Oilers

[29:52–35:56]

• McDavid’s low goal output (on pace for 8) is seen as highly likely to improve:
  • “Jack Hughes isn’t going to shoot 22% forever. Connor McDavid is not going to shoot three and a half percent forever.” (Max, 30:14)
• Issues Beyond the Superstars:
  • Oilers’ depth scoring is non-existent; the pressure is immense on McDavid and Draisaitl.
• Depth Concerns:
  • Max: “This team doesn’t have the depth the previous two teams have…It doesn’t feel like a Stanley Cup contender to me beyond, you know, the three-headed monster at the top.”
• Trade deadline speculation: What will new GM Stan Bowman do to bolster the bottom-six?
  • “He’s never been shy about [moving picks for rentals] and there’s going to be even more impetus because of the McDavid contract situation.” (Max, 35:27)

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Jack Eichel and the Vegas Golden Knights

[35:56–39:04]

• Eichel off to a “heart trophy” caliber start, with scoring trending higher:
  • “If he can become a full 40-goal guy, it puts him in a completely different echelon…He’s getting there now.” (Max, 36:49)
• Notably, Vegas now splits up Eichel and Mitch Marner, offering matchup nightmares for opponents and maximizing line depth.
• “This is the model for championship teams—to have two mega lines.” (Max, 38:15)

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The Granger Zone: Montreal Canadiens’ Goaltending Revolution

[41:25–48:40]

• Goaltending drama: Jesse Granger analyses Sam Montembeault's bad start (.842 SV%, worst in the league, [42:07]) and Jakob Dobes' sensational arrival (5-0, .940 SV%, 10 goals saved above expected).
  • “He looks like he’s one of these 6’6” or 6’7” goalies…He presents himself massively to the puck.” (Jesse, 43:13)
• Max asks the eternal question:
  • “Why is goaltending so stupid? How do guys just forget how to play? How do guys come out of nowhere and then they're the best goalie in the world?” (Max, 44:18)
• Jesse attributes volatility to razor-thin margins and the unprecedented depth of goalie talent in the NHL.

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Tampa Bay Lightning: Time Finally Catches Up?

[48:40–51:38]

• The hosts sense age “creeping up” on Tampa and see the team “looking slow” (Max, 48:56).
• Mark notes Andre Vasilevskiy's new technical approach may actually lessen twitch/reaction skills:
  • “He's doing everything right and then the puck’s just missing his glove by a centimeter…” (Jesse, 51:29)
• Both doubt the Lightning can still flip the switch as easily as in past seasons.

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New York Rangers: Disappointing and Underperforming

[52:05–56:04]

• Fourth-best expected goal share in the league, yet dead last in the conference.
• Igor Shesterkin described as “out of his mind” but still losing because of team ineptitude (Jesse, 53:37):
  • “He had a .957 save percentage and a losing record. .960 losing record. Almost impossible to do, but the Rangers have found a way.” (Jesse, 55:04)
• Lament lack of youth infusion, and skepticism that coaching changes were enough.

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Notable Quotes and Moments

• On season samples:
  • “If my NFL team was 1–1 after 10 games, I wouldn’t think anything of it. Even at 0–2, it’s not the end of the world. You start getting antsy at game five… that’s like 30–35 hockey games.” (Mark, 27:12)
• On the Penguins’ hot streak:
  • “Enjoy the good times while they’re there, because they are not persistent when you’re in this state…water will always find its level.” (Mark, 16:26)
• On McDavid’s slow start:
  • “He can just make goals materialize out of thin air whether he’s scoring them or not.…It is so unbelievably top heavy right now [in Edmonton].” (Max, 31:20)
• On goaltending randomness:
  • “The difference between success and failure [for goalies] is so small. … you can go from being great to being terrible or from terrible to being great that easily.” (Jesse Granger, 44:42)

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Timestamps for Major Segments

• Utah Mammoth: 03:36–09:55
• New Jersey Devils: 09:55–14:48
• Pittsburgh Penguins: 14:48–18:52
• Dallas Stars: 20:34–25:41
• Early Season vs. Real Season: 25:41–29:52
• McDavid/Oilers: 29:52–35:56
• Jack Eichel/Golden Knights: 35:56–39:04
• The Granger Zone: Canadiens Goalies: 41:25–48:40
• Lightning: 48:40–51:38
• Rangers: 52:05–56:04

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Final Thoughts

This lively episode is packed with insightful, stats-driven hockey banter and healthy skepticism about both team and individual hot streaks. The “trick or treat” framework brings an entertaining edge, while the hosts’ willingness to air doubts—even about perennial contenders—makes for a brutally honest and informative breakdown of early NHL storylines.

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Summary by The Athletic Hockey Show Summarizer.

Transcript

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[Max Boltman]

This is the Athletic Hockey Show.

[Mark Lazarus]

Hey everybody. Max Boltman here alongside Mark Lazarus for another episode of the Athletic Hockey Show. And Laz, I know you're a big Halloween guy, so let's do some trick or treating here to kick off Halloween week. Which of these NHL teams and storylines are tricking us and which ones are in for a treat?

[Jesse Granger]

I don't know.

[Mark Lazarus]

I might be laying it on a little thick with the, with the theme on this one.

[Max Boltman]

It's that time of year, right? I mean look, the hockey's janky in October and so is the podcasting. It's fine.

[Mark Lazarus]

That's right. We don't really have that much to discuss yet, so. But let's start with the Utah Mammoth who are giving us plenty to discuss. I mean, they have been one of the best stories in hockey. Logan Cooley looks awesome. Trick or treat on the Mammoth.

[Max Boltman]

You know, I kind of lean towards treat. Last year I thought they were going to make the playoffs. This year I thought they were going to make the playoffs. It's a good team. I mean, the Winnipeg win was a good one for me because they really had had a pretty easy schedule at that point. They had split a games against Colorado, I think, and that's just a bunch of men that they had beaten. But that's what good teams do, right? They beat up on the meh. And look, Nick Schmaltz is second in the league in scoring right now. And Nick Schmaltz is not going to finish the season second in the league in scoring. He's not going to have 120 points. But on this team he doesn't need to be right. He needs to be the fourth or fifth head in the five headed monster of Logan Cooley, Dylan Gunther, Clayton Keller, J.J. paterka and Nick Schmaltz. There's so much talent now that we've been talking about this talent coming up through the pipeline for years and it's all here. And they're all kind of realizing their potential at the same time. They got a good goalie, they've got a good rink, they've got good players. There's no reason to think that the Utah Mammoth are some kind of a fluke.

[Mark Lazarus]

No, I agree. And whether it's, you know, your, your coolies and your genthers and genther has Another big goal on Sunday night. You have this young core coming, but it's the established guys too. To your point, Schmaltz is not going to lead the league in scoring this year, but he is in a contract year, I believe, and that's certainly a powerful motivator that can keep him playing at a really high level. Certainly a lot of incentive every night to come to the ring hungry. So I am buying the mammoth as well. I, I'm a little surprised at how hard you sold treat there though, because when we were show prepping, I think you were a little more hesitant than this last.

[Max Boltman]

You know, the more I thought about it, I mean this is. They're killing it at 5 on 5. Like a lot of the teams we're going to talk about today are riding the PDO train a little bit or they're out. You know, they're outperforming their metrics and some of the teams that are struggling are underperforming the metrics, but Utah's just killing it. I think they're, they've outscored opponents 23 to 14 at five on five. To be plus nine through nine or 10 games of the season at five on five is very impressive. They got a bad PK, they got a middling power play, but they're killing it at 5 on 5. And if you're doing that, that's the hallmark of an actual good team that can sustain this a little bit longer.

[Mark Lazarus]

Now here's the thing is that we have seen teams like this that play this like really fast, young, exciting offense as the year goes on and teams get a little more into their structure, you can struggle, right? If you're dependent on rush offense, that's what dries up. I've seen it in Detroit in recent years. By the time the calendar turns, February, March, teams are really locked in and obviously if they can get to February and March playing like this, they might have enough buffer to survive it. But I am curious if they're going to be able to develop a little bit more kind of hard offense to keep this afloat because they're not playing necessarily the most. You know, I, I, I hear what you're saying about driving the 5 on 5 play, but you know, when you look at the expected goals and stuff like obviously that is heavily influenced by grade A chances off the rush that I'm not 100% sure are always going.

[Max Boltman]

To be there, but they have the kind of talent that should be able to consistently bury a lot of those chances, right? This isn't These aren't guys playing over the heads. We know that. Logan Cooley and Dylan Gunther, Clayton Keller, these are high, high end players that can finish regularly. Will it translate in the playoffs if they do get in? That's a big question. We've seen for years Toronto playing this kind of fun, uptempo style and unable to translate to the rougher, more defensive minded game in hockey. Hockey in the playoffs. We've seen that with Dallas, a number of teams. So I don't know if this is a long term like Stanley cup contender, but I see the only reason I could think that they might not make the playoffs is I don't know yet who comes out. Right. We talked about this a couple of times now. The, the teams that are in the playoffs last year that are expected to make the playoffs this year. Yeah, there's some slow starts. Minnesota is concerning. St. Louis is concerning. But this is still a murder, murderer's row in the Central Division there. And there's no easy outs anymore. You know, Nashville and Chicago are much more competitive. It's going to be a real grind to get into that top four in the Central Division and there's no guarantee you're going to get a fifth team out of the Central because the Pacific is so weak at the bottom that somebody's going to fatten up and maybe sneak in there. So the path to the playoffs is really difficult. But this Utah team certainly looks like a team that's capable of walking that path.

[Mark Lazarus]

Here's my thing about who's going to come out though. Why is that Utah's problem? Like it's not September 15th anymore. We're not, we're not doing this on paper. They're the team in first place. It's not Utah's problem who, who it is that doesn't catch up. It's who's going to catch him at this point. And in the Central Division, like the Minnesota Wild have to be one of the more disappointing teams. You know, we were on here week one overreactions and in Matt Bold, he still looks really good. So I'm not saying we regret that. But the Wild as a whole have not kept up with, you know, obviously the, the excitement around what their top two stars were doing to begin that year and they look extremely vulnerable to fallout. The St. Louis Blues look extremely vulnerable to fallout. So, and, and even to your point in the Pacific, who else is getting in there besides Vegas and Edmonton? Like you're talking about a fourth team. I'm, I'm saying like they're, they're getting their three, obviously guaranteed, but it might be that third team that's in because they fattened up on the bottom of that division.

[Max Boltman]

Yeah, I'm not, I'm not buying the Seattle Kraken. Not yet at least. The Kings. The Kings play that style that really kind of drag you down, defensive boring style of play that is very sustainable. I still think they're going to be okay in the long term, you know, Vancouver, I don't know. You're right. I mean the Pacific is not pretty right now, but that doesn't guarantee a 15 comes out of the Central. It never does because there's a lot of free points to be had there. San Jose is a lot of fun right now, but they're losing a lot of games and there's a lot of easy points to be had out there in the Pacific.

[Mark Lazarus]

My point is they're the fourth. Like they don't need to be the 15th 15. Dallas, Colorado, Winnipeg, Utah at that point. Like who, who in the Central is better than Utah? I don't think it's St. Louis, I don't think it's Minnesota.

[Max Boltman]

I don't think I agree with you there, but St. Louis and Minnesota have some kind of proof of concept. Right? They have been able to do this for an entire season, largely with the group they have. Utah is the team that has not shown they can do that yet. They made a nice run last year to get kind of sort of into the periphery of the mix, but didn't really. Never really in a playoff position. So they have to prove it first. Until, until they prove it, they're an unproven commodity. Whereas Minnesota and St. Louis, they've been through this. They can handle the ups and downs a little bit better. We'll see what happens when Utah is not on like an eight game win streak here and they have to kind of deal with some adversity. It's still a relatively young team though. Those young guys, they're. They're kind of entering their primes.

[Mark Lazarus]

It's funny when you were talking about kind of the fast paced tempo style and you made the Toronto comp. The team that I think about when I think about the Mammoth is the recent New Jersey Devils. And they're our next team that we're going to do trick or treat on because they're in first place in the east so far and look really, really good. Jack Hughes especially looks really, really good to begin this season.

[Max Boltman]

Yeah, Jack Hughes is probably not going to shoot 22.2% the rest of the season. But we know Jack Hughes is a World Class Top 5 Top 10 player who can do this. He can sustain this if he stays healthy. The Devils are kind of the opposite of the mammoth in a lot of ways, right? They're doing this with special teams. I think they have the, their top five in power play, their top one or two in penalty kill, their five on five play is kind of middling, but they're doing it with special teams and you know, it's always curious to see which one is more sustainable in the long term. They've done this without Jacob Markstrom most of the season. Jake Allen has stepped in and done a really nice job for them. And net, they've beaten some good teams. They've beaten Florida, they've beaten Edmonton, they've beaten Toronto, they've beaten, I think Colorado. So you look at their stats, you look at their metrics, and it's kind of underwhelming. But they're doing it with goaltending and special teams, which is a proven path to success in the NHL too, if you can keep that up.

[Mark Lazarus]

But what's interesting when you talk about their 5 on 5 numbers, like this is not a team historically that we've had concerns about that with. It's still a 51% team, you know, expect a goal show team. Historically, they have dominated the play. To me, what I see when I look at the Devils is a team whose roster evolution has taken them from being defined by Jack who Jack Hughes, Jasper Brat run and gun kind of deal to they now have the guy who might be the selkie favorite with no Alexander Barkov and Nico Hecher. And obviously he's been there a while, but I think he's ready to take that step in his game. And really even I don't even know if it's his game. It's just maybe more his reputation. The blue line I think gets so underrated in New Jersey and Luke Hughes gets a lot of the attention there. But I think this is as well rounded and deep a blue line as maybe there is in the NHL. When you go top to bottom and you talk about the Pescis, Brendan Dillon, Kova, Sevic Seagan, Thaler, like there's all these guys that just play winning hockey on that blue line that complement their skill forward so well. If I have a question on New Jersey, it's, it's a similar one to the Mammoth, like how are they going to play when the hockey gets a little bit more rough and tumble below the goal line kind of deal. But roster wise, like, this looks like a team that I should have zero questions on, frankly.

[Max Boltman]

Yeah. Especially at an Eastern Conference that looks a little bit kind of uninspired so far this year. There's not really a lot of great teams out there. It's there for the taking, and the Devils have been one of these teams. They spiked that great season a couple of years ago and then regressed a little bit. Now I think we're seeing the Devils kind of coming into, you know, they're in full right now and we're seeing what the best out of them. But again, and I don't want to. I hate harping too much on the analytics, but it's a good way of just getting a better feel for the team than just the vibe I'm getting from watching them from time to time. They've only got six guys above water in terms of expected goals, but they've only got five players below water in terms of actual goals. So they are outperforming their metrics by a significant margin. And that's what happens when you have good special teams. Right. So, again, there's a lot of talent. I love the blue line, too. The goaltending is there. The east is there for the taking. But I'm a little bit dialed back on them just because I don't like the way they're playing five on five. I just. Jack Hughes is my favorite player in the league to watch. He is the most exciting, the most entertaining player in the league for me to watch. So I love watching the Devils do well. I want them to do well. And Lord knows the New York area could use a good hockey team. So I'm hoping that this isn't just a mirage, but I don't think they're a, you know, win eight out of every nine games team yet.

[Mark Lazarus]

Well, no, nobody is a win eight out of every nine teams in the NHL. But my point is, like, if this was like a breakthrough year for the Devils.

[Jesse Granger]

Right.

[Mark Lazarus]

If this was a team that, you know, we hadn't seen it from, or something like that. Yeah. Point to the metrics, question the sustainability, all that. We've seen them be a very good team at 5 on 5. We've seen them control play well enough, certainly when Hughes is healthy, that's who they've been over the years. So I just don't have that same skepticism toward that. I mean, like I mentioned, Kova Sevic, he's obviously out right now, but he's going to come back into the lineup and be kind of a bruising element for Them it's be to going to add something, right? Like, there's, there's a lot of reasons, I think, to believe in the Devils right now. I'm surprised you're not more bullish on them, frankly.

[Max Boltman]

Well, I don't mean to like, you know, rain on their parade here, but. And honestly, when you look at the Metro division right now, it's pathetic, right? Is the Devils and a bunch of like, all right, the Hurricanes are still there? Yes. Then it's the Penguins. Is anyone really buying into the Penguins? The Capitals are kind of uninspiring right now. The Islanders are, you know, fun to watch with, with Matthew Schaefer, but I don't think anyone's looking at them as a serious contender. The Flyers are a mess. The Blue Jackets are middling and, and the Rangers are a disaster. They're dead last in the conference. The, the, the Metro is, you know, as weak as the Pacific is right now. It's a two horse race. So New Jersey's not really going to be threatened here. They're going to be fine. But like you said, will this translate in the playoffs? Their style traditionally hasn't, not since the trap days of Marty Brodor. So we'll see.

[Mark Lazarus]

You teased it there. Pittsburgh Penguins, that's another team.

[Jesse Granger]

I.

[Mark Lazarus]

This is an easy one, right? I mean, this is, this is early season mirage from the Pittsburgh Penguins.

[Max Boltman]

Yeah, this is, this is the PDO train at work, right? I mean, Tristan, Jerry and Artur Sealovs, I think they had a combined save percentage last year, like 870. They're like at 918 right now. This is, this is not real. Evgeny Malkin. I love seeing Evgeny Malkin turn back the clock, but he does this at the start of every season and then he falls off of a cliff. He's not going to score 100 points this year, much as I'd love to see it. This is, this is smoke and mirrors right now for the. It's fun, good for them, but it's smoke and mirrors.

[Mark Lazarus]

Yeah, you just, you just don't look at this team, this very young team, and there's some good storylines, right? I mean, you, you even talked about how, you know, you read some of the names in yoi's coverage, right? And you're like Harrison Brunicki, who I, who I really like, Ben Kindle. Like, these are names for the future. These are not names for right now shutting down teams to the tune of 1, 2 even. They've had, you know, a couple shutouts here, like zero goals against that they're going to be able to sustain over a year. That doesn't happen with teams this young, with players this young, even when they also have the legends like your Crosby, your Malkin, your Latang. You know, Carl, like these are not guys who you're thinking of as shot suppressors outside of really Crosby at this point in his career.

[Max Boltman]

If you're a Penguins fan right now, are you just like gritting your teeth? Because it's kind of nice to see Crosby and Malkin flying and the team's winning, but you know this isn't what's best for the team in the long run. You kind of want, you want your best chance at Gavin McKenna. This is what is sustained. The Penguins franchise for 40 years is getting the best player on the planet at age 18. Are you a little angsty about like this? Is a little thrown off the plan a bit?

[Mark Lazarus]

I can't speak for Penguins fans last, but you and I have been living this for a few years and I can say if, if Penguins fans are feeling like this, do not worry for two reasons. One, water will always find its level and you will end up where you're supposed to end up. Enjoy the good times while they're there because they are not persistent when you're in this, in this state. And two, the lottery does not promise anything either. You can finish with the worst record and end up with the third pick in the draft and that might be a fine pick this year. It's probably not going to be like a defining player. You know, there's a few names that are really exciting. Ethan Belkids, Keaton verhoff after Gavin McKenna. But you're just as likely to end up with one of them as McKenna. You're actually more likely to end up with one of them kind of if you have the worst record. And conversely, if you finish third or fourth, you don't have that much worse of a shot at McKenna anyway. So I say enjoy the good times while they're there.

[Max Boltman]

Pittsburgh, I'm with you. I remember a few years ago during the Connor Bedard tank year for the Blackhawks, they started the season like 4 and 2. They had a four game winning streak in October and fans were like, what are you doing? No, this isn't how it's supposed to work. And then at the end of the year against the Penguins, they had this, this, this very. The Penguins were scrapping and fighting for their playoff lives. Like second to last game of the season, the Blackhawks were dead last in league or they have the best odds of Connor Bedard and the Blackhawks went to Pittsburgh and won that game. Buddy Robinson scores this tying goal, the one of the most faithful goals now in Blackhawks history because that that leapfrog the hawks into the third worst record in the league and the third worst record in the league wound up getting Connor McDavid, Connor Bedard. So it's funny how, you know, you stress about tanks like this and you gotta be dead last. Dead last doesn't always get you the first pick. And a nice little run in October usually doesn't mean much at the end of the season.

[Mark Lazarus]

Makes the season much more palatable too. Right, because you're going to get better moods from everybody. I mean, now I'm speaking like a reporter. I guess they don't really care what the players moods are in the fan base, but better vibes. How about that? That's the word that I think will be more universal. And it's good to see Ben Kendall have some moments. It's great to see Harrison Brunicki have some. It's good to keep Sidney Crosby, like invested. Right? If you're someone who wants Sidney Crosby to stay in Pittsburgh, hey, runs like this really help the cause at least because it shows some, some idea that there can be success. So enjoy it while it lasts. I don't, I don't think either of us expects that it will. Let's take a quick break right there. We'll be right back with more tricks and treats from the early NHL season.

[Max Boltman]

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[Mark Lazarus]

All right, we're back. And you guys know it is the best time of year to be a sports fan. You got football, baseball, basketball, hockey all on the slate. And to celebrate, BETMGM is giving you not one, but two parlay boost tokens to enjoy on any sport, no matter the sport you choose. There are countless options waiting for your parlay picks, so place your parlay and make this sports equinox one to remember. Laz, for years now, you've loved the Dallas Stars. You've been picking the Dallas Stars relentlessly to win the Stanley Cup. And you know what? Sometimes I've agreed with you. I still think they're one of the most talented teams, most interesting teams in the NHL. And I really can't argue that their place in the standings is really cause for any concern. I mean, they're fourth in the Central, but it's a tight race, it's very early. I'm looking at that negative goal differential though, and I'm looking at the fact they've already had a four game losing streak and, and I just feel like something is off with the Stars. And I don't know if it's, you know, we, we give grace to teams like the Edmonton Oilers early in the season for some early season malaise. So maybe we should just do that for the Dallas Stars. But I wanted to take your temperature on, I don't know, a lukewarm start for the Dallas Stars. Trick or treat.

[Max Boltman]

I definitely keep a closer eye on the Stars and a lot of teams because I do tend to spend my springs in Dallas covering them. Yep. Yeah. And you use the exact same term that I use. They just look a little off, like something's not right there. New coach Glenn Gulletson. There's going to be some learning and any October hockey is going to be messy, but with a new coach, it's always extra messy because you're learning new things, you're thinking out there, you're not reacting. But they've been really underwhelming and you know, Merrill Heiskinen had had a slow start to the year. There wasn't a lot of offense. That four game losing streak was concerning. That went over Carolina though over the weekend. Followed up with a, with a nice win over Nashville. Kind of settles the nerves a little bit. I have a tough time getting worked up about worked up about any of these teams that continually make long runs. And here's the thing with Dallas, like we talk about this a lot where we know really good teams don't really care about the regular season. We said that about Florida, we've said that about Edmonton. They just got to get in and then they know they can make a run. In your mind, has Dallas earned that right? They have been to the Western Conference final three straight times, but they've lost all three times. Have they earned the right to go on cruise control in the regular season?

[Mark Lazarus]

Yes, I mean, I think they're the West's Carolina or the Central, I guess is Carolina. And in that, you know, we know that they're very capable, they're going to make the playoffs, they're very capable of winning around or two and then the questions come in the spring. So I have no doubt that Dallas is going to make the playoffs. I guess what my, my question to you really more is and maybe it's just something that you're not going to feel strongly about in October. Are you seeing anything that. Does the lack of pop make you feel like, oh, they're not going to have that kind of juice at the end or does it signal similar to what it is with a Florida where it's, you know, they know that they don't need the pop right now. They're saving the pop for when they really need it in, in April, in May.

[Max Boltman]

I think it's more the latter. They don't, they don't, they don't look like they're playing with a lot of juice right now. And it is really difficult. I mean these guys are human beings and they've been playing, you know, Final Four hockey in late May for three straight seasons. It's really tough to get up for some random weeknight game and you know, Raleigh or Carolina or Los Angeles or something. It's just these games don't feel like they mean a lot when you've played these monster, monster games where they feel like they're life or death. So it is A challenge for veteran players. And this is a veteran heavy team. These guys have been around the block a few times. It can be really hard. I saw it in Chicago. It was like that in Detroit before, you know, before their rebuild. It's been like that in Edmonton and Florida. They're just kind of, you know, we just got to stay healthy and get through all this. We'll win enough games on sheer talent alone and with our goaltending and then we'll worry about this stuff later. But remember, the Stars finished the season last year on a seven game losing streak and it was bad, it was ugly and it took them like that. Colorado series was a, was a, was a barn burner because they were still trying to find their legs. Yes, veteran teams can flip a switch, but you don't want to just limp into the playoffs. So I don't worry about October. I'd worry a little bit more about March and April. Trying to fine tune yourself so you're peaking at the right time. Yeah.

[Mark Lazarus]

No, and really, you look at the individual players, all the names that you want to see are having good years. There's nobody who's like, oh, what's wrong with this guy? It's, it's just kind of a, I don't know, it's not really a malaise. Yeah, yeah, they're fine. And now that we've said this, they're going to win like six in a row. And you know that that kind of happened. We were talking about Buffalo, but obviously very different starting places for those two franchises. To your point, I do think that the Stars have earned that, that grace that I think we're going to give them here the Central Division odds. This is interesting from BetMGM. I think they paint a picture of that too. Right. Like Colorado is the favorite. We talked about how Utah's in first place. Colorado is the, is the betting favorite for BetMGM plus 135 to win the Central. Dallas right on their heels, plus 225. And then it's a gap. The jets at plus 600, the mammoth at plus 650 in the wild. Cover your ears, Russo. Army plus 2000. So the market is not liking the Wild's chances, but it really sees even clear delineation between the Aves and Stars and then that next tier of jets and Mammoth.

[Max Boltman]

How bad would it be if the Wild missed the playoffs this year after giving $17 million a year to Kirill Capriza? What would that do to a market that's always on edge? Like Wild fans, they care as much as anybody. They are so invested in this team that constantly lets them down. How on edge would that city be, those two cities? Would they be if they missed the playoffs a year after the year of giving out the biggest contract in history while seeing other superstars take much less money at the same time?

[Mark Lazarus]

And, like, this was kind of a light at the end of the tunnel year because you had the Paris Suiter contracts, like, finally lightening up. The cap goes up. Like, the Wild were basically playing on a $65 million cap or $70 million cap for years, while everyone else played with more money because of the Paris A suitor buyouts. This is supposed to be the liberation, and it would be. It would be a twist of the knife if. If they missed the playoffs. Now, now it's early. I'm not saying it's happening. And we. I. I talked about, like, I think the Mammoth are the fourth team in the Central, but there might be five in the Central and that might still be the Wild. They. I think they have the star talent, certainly. Again, I think Capri's off and Boldy can put you on their back and you get booyah going. You got Faber. I love Joel Erickson. Ek. I'm not giving up on the Wild, but it looks grim so far.

[Max Boltman]

All right, we've already said it's early about 30 times on this show. When is it not early, Honestly? When is it? We always talk about American Thanksgiving.

[Mark Lazarus]

That's the.

[Max Boltman]

I know, like, Elliot. Elliot Friedman likes the November 1st stat. And there is. There are numbers to back that up. When is it not early to you, Max?

[Mark Lazarus]

Probably about Thanksgiving. December. Yeah.

[Max Boltman]

That's like a third of the season, though.

[Jesse Granger]

That's a long way in.

[Mark Lazarus]

So here, here's the one way I think about this, and we're going to go on a tangent here. Hockey season's 82 games. The NFL season 17, roughly one NFL game is like five NHL games. And so I try to think about, like, would I be panicked as a fan if my NFL team was 1 and 1, which is what it is after 10 games? No, I wouldn't think anything of it. Even at 02, you're, like, annoyed, but it's not the end of the world. You start NFL season, I think you start getting, you know, antsy at, like, game five, game six, maybe game seven, right around where we are now on the NFL schedule. You translate that out, that's like 30 to 35 games.

[Max Boltman]

Yeah, that's fair. That's fair. But I don't know. At some point, I Don't know what the right sample size is. Most of these teams have played nine or 10 games now. That's an eighth of the way through the season already. A lot of these teams are going to be what we, what they look like right now. Like, you, you can't expect all. There are so many good teams struggling right now. Your Lightnings of the world and your, your, your Rangers and even your Oilers just kind of middling their way through. Florida's a.500 team. They can't all bounce back. Right. Like, mathematically speaking, some of these teams are just going to have bad years and someone's going to fall out and someone's going to have, you know, Panic City on their hands. So it's, it's, it's early, but it's not as early as it was last time we talked about.

[Mark Lazarus]

Well, that's where I think I buy more into the slow start than I do the hot start as something to read into. Right. Like when a team gets out to a great start, Pittsburgh, great example, you're like, okay, well, I still look at what they have on paper and don't see a path for them to continue doing this. For the slow starting teams, you can often see the path, but then you're worried about math. Right. Like, if you think a team is like a 98 to 100 point team, but they have a slow start and they only get like 7, 8, 10 points in their first 15 games, you start doing the math and you're like, ooh, they got to be really good now to get to where I thought they were going to be. So you can dig that hole. It's pretty easy to let something slip away from you over the course of 70 games or 65, 60 games. It's really hard to dig out when you put yourself in that hole.

[Max Boltman]

And with the loser point out there, it's so difficult to make up ground in the NHL. That's why the American Thanksgiving comp always seems to work.

[Mark Lazarus]

Yes.

[Max Boltman]

Because if you're, if you're four or six, eight points back, it could take you a month or more to make up that much ground. In baseball, you know, the Mets are playing the Phillies and the Mets are three games back. You sweep a series, bam, tied first place. That doesn't happen in hockey. There's so many points that teams just kind of stumble into. If we had three point regulation wins and you had teams really going for regulation wins, maybe you'd see a little bit more, you know, upward mobility in the standings. But, but it is really difficult to make up ground in the NHL.

[Mark Lazarus]

It is. Speaking of this, let's go to some individual players here and Connor McDavid, who Conor McDavid, statistically has not put up Connor McDavid like numbers to begin this year. I think you had a note in our show sheet on pace for eight goals this year. I mean, that's. We know that's not going to happen, but it does kind of underline how quiet it's been, at least on the goal department for Connor McDavid.

[Max Boltman]

Well, it's like I said, Jack Hughes isn't going to shoot 22% forever. Connor McDavid is not going to shoot three and a half percent forever. He's a career 15% shooter. Guy's pretty good at hockey. So we kind of went through this last year. If I remember, he had a slow start. He only had a few goals in the first month. And I remember him talking like Daniel Nugent, Bowman saying, like, I got to start being more selfish here. I got to start scoring goals because he is still handing out a ton of assists. He's still creating plenty. He had a month last year. He had 20 assists in one month. Like, he can just make goals materialize out of thin air whether he's scoring them or not. But obviously he's got to score him because the Oilers are getting absolutely nothing beyond the big guys, beyond McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and like Ryan Nugent Hopkins, they're getting nothing. Manjapani Roslovic, Bouchard Pod Colson, Trent Frederick, these guys are doing nothing out there right now. So the pressure is really on McDavid to make sure those goals go in so that the Oilers don't have one of those hills to climb that we were just talking about because he has to score 40 or 50 goals. The way this team is playing right now, it is so unbelievably top heavy right now.

[Mark Lazarus]

And the thing is, it's not who he's been for most of his career, right? Like, he mostly lives in the like 30 to 40 range, goals wise, and he piles up the assists. But we know it's in there because I, and I will go to my grave believing that. Austin Matthews scored 60 goals in 20, 21, 22, and McDavid comes back the next year. And whether it was conscious by him or not, I swear there must have just been some. Oh, you think that's special in. In his mind because he goes out and he does 64, right. And it looks like an outlier year, but it's kind of like, you know, remember how like they said Ichiro, like if Ichiro tried to swing for power, he could have been like a 40 home run guy every year. But because he was so dedicated to having the, you know, 300 and whatever average, that's what he did. That's how it feels like. I think McDavid could have 50 goals every year if he wanted to.

[Max Boltman]

Yeah, he's. He's like Mario Lemieux that way. Right? Where he can be the playmaker or he can be the finisher. He can just do whatever he wants out there. If he says like, you know, this is a goal scoring year for me, he'll go out and score 50 goals, I'm a playmaker now, he's going to have a hundred assists, which only a couple of guys have ever done. So he can still turn it on when he needs to. It's time to turn it on, Connor. They need you to.

[Mark Lazarus]

Yeah, it is. And that's usually where it comes up is like when the team is struggling. The team needs the best player in the world to be the best player in the world. There's some takeover effect to it. Now he also, you know, we say this like it's easy. Like he's getting everyone's best matchup every night. And their whole goal is to keep him specifically from scoring a goal, which is part of the reason he's able to make so many plays. He draws this attention. Guys are in on him. He has all world hockey sense, all world skating ability, all world hands, all world everything. And he can, you know, find the guy and make the play. But they will at some point. I mean, this is as reliant a team on its top two players as there is in the league.

[Max Boltman]

How do you feel about the Oilers as a team right now? Like, McDavid and Dry Seidle are arguably the two most talented players on the planet. And I don't feel good about the Oilers at all. Like, beyond. I don't, I don't. There's not a whole lot like Matthias Ekholm got walked yesterday. Like, there's not a lot to like right now. The guys you expect to be good aren't playing well. We know that the goaltending is a huge concern. This doesn't feel like a team that's crying for yet another Stanley cup run, is it?

[Mark Lazarus]

It's just that we've had this conversation with them both of the last two years and that's exactly what it resulted in. Right. So like I agree with you, if you were telling. If we were Doing like a blind resume thing. And you're telling me, you know, team A is off to this start and their best player only has one goal and you know, their, their complimentary players haven't really had any pop and it's like, okay, yeah, that's a bad sign. But because I know it's the Edmonton Oilers and I've seen this movie before, I would be lying if I said I was particularly worried about them outside of the ways that I worried about them, like in general going into the season. I still wonder about the goaltending. I still wonder about, you know, the secondary, you know, the next wave of scoring when McDavid and Draisait will have quiet nights. But they've proven in the playoffs that they're able to survive that right up until, you know, they have one more hurdle left to clear. But I don't see a reason to say that they're going to fall anything short of what we've seen in the last couple of years because it's exactly what we have seen and that often.

[Max Boltman]

Is because of Connor McDavid winning a series by himself or Leon Draisaitl winning a series by himself. You're right, they have the guys that can do that. But it just feels like this team doesn't have the depth that the previous two teams have. It doesn't feel like a Stanley cup contender to me beyond, you know, the three headed monster at the top of that lineup.

[Mark Lazarus]

And that actually that is a very important distinction I guess that we should make because I, you know, two years ago when you had your Dylan Holloways in there, you saw paths for like this guy can break through. Maybe there's a couple of those. Like you're hoping Matt Savoy can have a breakout. Obviously you know, they signed Jack Roslovic. We've seen him get hot and have some good offensive stretches here. You know, Vasily put Coles in is another guy who I think you know, for the pedigree, you wonder is there just a little bit more in there that can come out. But I do agree, like when you're looking at fourth line right now, I'm read it to you. Isaac Howard, David Thomas, like Matthew Savoy until Howard or and he's another guy who could break out until Howard or Savoy has the breakout. That's not striking fear into anyone's heart. Lazar Henrique, Frederick, like maybe in a matchup like you could see them having a, a decent amount of success in a playoffs. It's not going to strike fear into anybody. So I do get Your point about.

[Max Boltman]

The depth and I'm curious to see what Stan Bowman does when we get closer to the trade deadline. Because remember, not only does he want to win, he's got to keep Connor McDavid happy. He's got to show Connor McDavid that this team will make sure that it is as, as prepared for the playoffs as possible. So he's going to have in Bowman's his time in Chicago, he gave away every first round pick he ever had basically and just like whatever, give me a guy, right, I get a rental. So he's never been shy about that. And there's going to be even more impetus behind that because of the Conor McDavid contract situation.

[Mark Lazarus]

Most years when we do our preseason like athletic poll that they have for us of who's going to win this award and who's going to win the Stanley Cup, I default to McDavid as the heart winner this year. I remember taking a long pause with it and there were three guys that I was really strongly considering. Nathan McKinnon, who I think probably deserved it last year in my mind, at least on the same level as Connor Hellebuck, Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel. And I picked the Vegas Golden Knights to win the Stanley cup this year. So that was part of it was like, well, if they're the best team, I think Jack Eichel is going to be a big reason why he's off to even a better start than I would have forecasted for him. He looks like one of the best players in the league and if, if maybe, maybe the best player so far right up there. Again, I think similar group of guys. If Connor McDavid's going to have a slow start last at least goal scoring wise, this door is open for Jack Eichel to kind of have his moment and have his heart trophy year.

[Max Boltman]

He's the best player on one of the very best teams in the league. Absolutely. And I, you know we saw last year he finally kind of popped that really big point total number. He was healthy, he was in the 90 point total. We're still waiting for him to be like a mega goal scorer. He's always been like a high 20s kind of guy, but he's got what, six goals through his first nine games. If he can kind of become a full 40 goal guy, it puts him on a completely different echelon. He's always been like a tier one. I, you know, I don't, I don't know what he officially was in our tiers, but in my Mind, he's like that one B. You've got your. Your McKinnon, Draisaitl, Jack Hughes, even, and McDavid, those guys. And then you've got those Jack Eichel types, the guys that, you know, can get to that point but haven't really gotten there yet. He's getting there now. He was. Got his foot in the door last year, and if he starts scoring goals at this kind of a pace and can keep that up, he's going to be in that same conversation with some of those guys.

[Mark Lazarus]

What amazes me too is they've split up him and Marner now, right? Like, it's Eichel on. On one line and Marner on another. So it's not even like, well, yeah, you got these two, you know, dynamic players playing off of each other. They're able to split them up, which is a huge advantage for Vegas to be able to do and have one of those two guys on the ice at all times. I thought Eichel was probably Team USA's, if not there, maybe their best forward, certainly one of their two or three non Kachuk division at the Four Nations. Like, he's, he's putting his stamp on this. He's.

[Max Boltman]

He's.

[Mark Lazarus]

He's always arrived. He's always been an elite NHL player. I think he's elevating into this very top echelon of the league right now.

[Max Boltman]

I agree. And there's. There's all the talent in the world. And, And I. You're right. By having him separated from Marner, you know, it forces opponents to pick their poison. He can get better matchups. And you're right that one of them is on the ice almost all the time. And it's really tough to load up. Who do you load up against? You load up against Eichel or, Or do you load up against Marner? Because most teams don't have two shutdown lines. So the way they're working it right now in Vegas, this is the path to success, is keeping the. Those guys separate. You always want dry. Seidel on the second line, McDavid on the first. You always wanted Kane and Tave separated. This is the model for championship teams, is to have two mega lines. And you don't want to have to load up. You want to have that option in your back pocket. That nuclear option is always there.

[Mark Lazarus]

Yeah, you're down a goal late.

[Max Boltman]

Yeah, yeah, 100%. And those guys will get together on the power play. They'll still see time together so that they'll be able to have some of that chemistry. But if you can keep them apart and they're both producing and you're winning, that's the best case scenario by far.

[Mark Lazarus]

Yeah. All right, let's take a quick break right there. Jesse Granger is going to be back right after this for the Granger Zone.

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[Mark Lazarus]

Welcome to the Granger Zone. You know whose Music that is Jesse Granger joins us now for the Granger Zone. And Jesse, we're doing tricks and treats today, right? A little Halloween theme. And one of the teams that's been certainly a treat to begin this year is the Montreal Canadiens. They have best team in the Atlantic division so far. It's this young core. I wondered coming into this year, are they really going to be able to sustain this? Is Nick Suzuki going to stay at the same level he was at in the second half of last year? Is Sam Monte Bow going to give them everything he was able to give them last year? The answers to those questions have varied, but the big picture answer is the Montreal Canadiens are here.

[Jesse Granger]

Yeah, they're, they're good. They're fun to watch. One of the most exciting teams in the league in terms of the way they're developing. And from my perspective in net, there's some super interesting stuff going up in Montreal because I have been kind of singing Sam Montembo's praises for a few years now. When you look at the, the analytics, the goal stage above expected, he has always been good for, we're talking two, three years in a row. He's, he's outperformed, I think what the public's view of him is as a goalie, he's been a very good starting goalie for that team. But early in this year, Sam Mountain Bow is struggling mightily. He's. He's got a.842 save percentage at the moment, which is almost the worst in the league. When you looked at his goal saved above expected, which I just mentioned, is a number he has dominated for two or three seasons. He's negative 6.6 right now, which is dead last. There are 68 goalies that have played in the NHL and Montembo ranks 68th out of them. Now, goalies have a bad few games here or there, no matter how good they are. So that part of it I'm not concerned about. But what is concerning if you're Sam Montembo is Jakob Dosh, the young big goalie for Montreal, has come in and played stellar. I mean, he's five and oh, he's got a.940 save percentage and he saved 10 goals above expected already, which is second in the league behind only Spencer Knight in Chicago. So this, he's. He's young, he's big, he's athletic. He reminds me a lot in terms of the way he plays of Anthony Stolars and what he's doing in Toronto. He's not quite as big as Stolars And I was actually surprised to see that that dobish is only 6 4. I say only 6 4, because when you watch him play, he looks like he's one of these six, six, six, seven goalies. Like, he presents himself massively to the puck. The way he stands, the way he plays. He is a huge goalie. He's got great lateral movement, which is usually what is like, the biggest issue when you have a goalie of that size. And he's playing really, really well right now. And if you look at the way the Canadiens have distributed the starts, I mean, it's like, early on, it was mountain. Bo is getting three out of every four. Well, the last four games, Dobish has played three out of four. And goaltending can turn on you quick. Montembo is a good goalie. I don't think he's done, but it is interesting. And we may be seeing a change of the guard in net for Montreal right when they're hitting their window that they think they can win.

[Max Boltman]

All right, I have a highly technical question for you. Why is goaltending so stupid? Why does this happen? How do guys just forget how to play? How do guys come out of nowhere, and then they're all of a sudden, like, the best goalie in the world? This happens with goaltending more than any other sport. You don't see just, like, some random defenseman come out and all of a sudden be Cale Makar, other than, like, Jonathan Chichu. You don't have a guy just randomly potting 50 goals one year. Why is goaltending particularly prone to this happening?

[Jesse Granger]

Yeah, it's super volatile. I think the answer is just how slim the margins are. Like, I think that this. And I say that in two different ways. The margins, in terms of how, like, the difference between success and failure at the position is so small. Like, there aren't defensemen who can kind of do what Cale Makar does, but they're just, like, a millimeter slower than Cale Makar. That doesn't exist. Whereas in goaltending, you look at, like, Conor Hellebuk and Igor Shusturkin, the best in the world. Well, there are a hundred goalies that can do exactly what they do, but they're, like, a millimeter slower than they are. So when the. When the margins are that slim, you can go from being great to being terrible or from terrible to being great that easily. And then the other thing is, I just think that goaltending is deep. The pool of goaltenders is deeper than we've ever seen Like, I think when you think back to. Let's just go back to the Brodeur Wa Hashik era, I think the difference between those three and like the average goalie in the NHL was massive because those guys didn't grow up with goalie coaches. They taught themselves. They. The difference between the haves and have nots was huge. Whereas now I think we've. Every goalie in the NHL has been training with a specialized coach since he was five and they all are so good. I think. I really do think that they've almost like de. Emphasized themselves because they've got. There are so many good goalies now. Like, Jakob Dobish is a guy who wasn't really thought of as one of the top 30 goalies in the league. He has been one of the best goalies in the world. And I think you can get that out of so many different guys. If all of the. The environment like works right for him. I think that goaltending stats are heavily, heavily reliant on the team in front of them more than any other position. Like, I think you can play on a bad team and score a bunch of goals. You can play on a bad team and still get assists. You know, you. It's very hard to goal 10 behind a horrible team and put up good numbers. Look at Dustin Wolfe. I think Dustin Wolfe's been amazing this year and his stats are terrible. So, yeah, I just think it's a combination of the margins being slim, the talent pool of goaltending being as deep as we've ever seen it, so that even the 50th or 60th best goal in the world still has the talent to put up huge numbers if things go right in front of him. And then, and then you see, obviously the environment changes drastically and Montreal's playing really good hockey right now.

[Mark Lazarus]

Well, I think the other thing here is the timing, right? And you mentioned like, right as this window was opening for Montreal, like, here comes Jakob Dovish. Like, it looked like they. They didn't have like a. Their top prospect was Jacob Fowler. They didn't have a clear answer if, if not for Montembo to bridge to Jacob Fowler. Well, now it might not be a bridge if Jakob Dobish is legit. He's 24 years old. He had a pretty good, you know, small sample last year at 23 year old, 23 years old, Jesse. And so to me, this is a huge breakthrough for them organizationally because I mentioned the varying results on my big questions on them coming into the year. Well, Nick Suzuki's answered his end of this. And. And even though Montembo really hasn't, now you have Dovish coming in. So if you have, you know, these, these great young forwards and these exciting young d. And now you add not just Fowler a couple years away, but a right now exciting young goalie and Dovish who, you know, I don't want to get ahead of my skis, but what happens if he's this year's Lucas Dostal and all of a sudden you have that guy in net? Like, that's a lot of pieces coming together at the exact right time for the Habs. It's. It for sure is.

[Jesse Granger]

It's exciting if you're a Habs fan. The goal, like we just talked about how quickly things can change in net. To have a veteran like Montembo who has proven year over year over year he can be a good goalie and I don't think, like, his stats have been bad this year. I expect him to bounce back. He may not be elite, but he's going to be a solid goalie who you can count on. Now you've got Dovish Fowler, like you mentioned, super high pedigree prospect who the ceiling is obviously incredibly high for him. You have to like your chances at one of those three working out. And like Doish say he is maybe, maybe this is a bit of a mirage and he's not quite this good, but he's still good. Well, you combine that with Montembo coming back up to his standard of what you'd expect, it seems like you can count on good goaltending for the Habs this season, whoever it's coming from. Yeah.

[Mark Lazarus]

All right. A couple more teams that we got to get to here before we wrap today. One of them is the Tampa Bay Lightning. This was a popular preseason Stanley cup pick, if not to win it, then to make it out of the East. They just don't. Again, they don't look right, but in. In a different way from Dallas last. Like, they're actually ending up on the losing end of a lot of this.

[Max Boltman]

They. They look slow, don't they? When you watch them play, they just look slow. Like it's. It's funny how that can, you know, age can kind of creep up on a team and then it's just. You just fall off a cliff. And that's what I see when I look at the Lightning right now is I thought this was going to happen two years ago, but through sheer force of will and good coaching and good management, they've been able to keep their window open. Longer. But you knew this was coming. And I don't feel good about the lightning, about them being able to come back and do something that there's so much talent there. It's a good defensive team and they've got Andre Vasilevsky, so they're going to be competitive. And I could, yes, they could still certainly make the playoffs, but Brandon Hagel has one goal, but Braden Point has just two. They just, they just don't have that. That feel that they've had in recent seasons.

[Jesse Granger]

I totally agree with you. In terms of the team looking slow as a whole. I just watched them last night against the Golden Knights and they ended up winning 2 to 1. Not a lot happened in that game. It was like the Golden Knights have played thrilling hockey. Like they have comeback wins in almost every win they've had this season. They have played exciting hockey to watch. And that game against Tampa Bay was the opposite. It was not exciting at all. It was. Both teams were kind of plodding around, checking well, keeping teams out of the center of the ice and just not really allowing any dange dangerous chances. And I. Tampa Bay has looked slow and Andre Vasilevsky, to me that, like, I, I think he's looked fine, but if, if you're like looking for, okay, what. What is he not doing? Well, he doesn't look as twitchy and fast as he used to. And I don't know if that's. I, I think it's a combination of an age thing, but I also think it's. I think he's playing a different style of, of goaltending. Like he, he changed his personal goalie coach a couple seasons back to Adam Francilia, who does amazing work. But Francilia has worked with Connor Hellebuck for basically his whole career. Like, mental goalies who kind of read the play, they don't. They're not all over the place the way Andre Vasilevsky is. I think we've seen him change his style to being more of a positional goalie who is not as active. He's more kind of passive near his goal line and he's, he's been in great positions. The goals against I've seen from Vasilevsky this year is he's great, he's in great position, and then he just isn't making the save. And I don't know if that's. His hands aren't as engaged and he's not like, just because, like when you, when you, when you kind of turned the dial back on how fast you're Playing. I wonder if that also, like, affects your reaction time. And now all of a sudden your hands aren't as quick as they used to be. Your feet aren't as quick as they used to be because your whole body is just sort of slowed down because you're changing the, the process to be a little bit more passive, a little bit more of a blocking style. I don't know, it's. It's interesting. I, when I watch him, I don't see a goalie who's out of position or who is looking bad on these plays. He's doing everything right and then the pucks just missing his glove by a centimeter or whatever each time. It's super interesting. I'm not overly concerned with him, but he hasn't looked at his best for sure.

[Max Boltman]

We need to talk about. You keep going into the metric system here. This is, this is, this is not the Canadian edition of the Athletic Hockey Show.

[Jesse Granger]

Jesse, what is. Okay, I just had this discussion the other day. How bad is our system that once it gets smaller than an inch, we have to switch to the other system? What's smaller than an inch? How do I stay in our system? I'm going to, I'm going to say an eighth of an inch out here. Come on, give me something.

[Max Boltman]

This is America, damn it.

[Jesse Granger]

We've got to have something smaller than an inch so that I don't have to go to centimeters once we go. It's killing me.

[Mark Lazarus]

Nate Bargett would disagree. We're going to talk about the New York Rangers next year. And this is a team who, you know, similarly slow start. I think I've been kind of the high guy on the Rangers here, and it's just getting harder to defend. I keep waiting. I keep being like, yeah, it's going to come. I even know. I actually think they've even looked better than they have in past years. And it's just not happening.

[Jesse Granger]

Last.

[Max Boltman]

They're dead last in the conference right now. In the preseason shows we were talking about this. Everyone was picking, I think 60 something percent of athletic writers picked the Rangers to make the playoffs. And why? What did they do that makes them better this year than last year other than changing a head coach? Mike Sullivan can't suddenly make Artemi Panarin not be mid-30s, you know, and play like one. And J.T. miller getting a letter on his shirt doesn't fundamentally alter the DNA of this team. This is.

[Mark Lazarus]

They got the best defenseman on the free agent market and they, and they have a reset year with a guy who scored 100 points recently. I don't think they did nothing.

[Max Boltman]

They didn't do enough with how bad they were last year. Like they're, they're, they're shedding talent. They were getting rid of guys because of way. The way things were going. And you know, Alexi La frontier. He might just be who he thought he was that year. That he spiked a big number and got a big contract. Like up here comes. I don't think it's common. This is what he is. He's a, he's a third line guy. And there's not a lot of young, exciting talents that's ready to step in and rejuvenate this team. This is other than Igor Shasturkin, who's, Who's played well, but not like out of his, out of his mind. Well, this is just a mediocre team and mediocre doesn't cut it.

[Jesse Granger]

Yeah, I actually disagree. I think Igor Shusturkin has played out of his mind well and that tells you just how bad the Rangers are that they still can't win. At one point now he's had like his last two games. He's given up five goals in each. And by the way, the game against Calgary last night. Go watch the goals. It's unbelievable. He has basically no chance on any of them. There was one. That ball scored from the point and he scores it. It's a clean shot. I'm like, oh, screen. Calgary must have had a great net front. No, there's no Calgary player. Between the face off dots, there were three New York Rangers players screening Igor Sterkin on the play. Calgary didn't even have to. Don't even go to the dangerous areas. Don't worry. The Rangers will screen their own goalie. Four of us, three. Three of them will screen their own goalie for us. He. And, and, and then on the other end, they're breaking goal scoring droughts set by dudes named Odie Cleghorn from the 1920s. Like, their inept offensive game is unbelievable how bad they are.

[Max Boltman]

Minnesota Wild are the only team scoring less than they are.

[Jesse Granger]

I mean when you look at. And they have talent, like they've got goal scoring talent. I, I don't understand why the Rangers can't score as well. Like, I, I really do think Shusturkin has been the best goalie in the NHL this season. When you just look at like watch the film, how they're playing. I think Igor Shusturkin has been the best goal in the NHL at one point before these last two blow up games he had a.957 save percentage and a losing record.960 losing record.

[Max Boltman]

Those are Paul Skeen's numbers. Jacob deGrom numbers.

[Jesse Granger]

Yeah, almost impossible to do, but the Rangers have found a way.

[Mark Lazarus]

Laz, you went to the metrics well on, on the mammoth earlier. Like the Rangers at the fourth best expected goal share in the league. It's 56%. I just, it's hard to fathom it.

[Max Boltman]

And then you and lafrenier LA Frontier's underlying numbers are really good too. He is underperforming his metrics. Really bad.

[Mark Lazarus]

They had a stretch earlier this year where they held three playoff teams, the Capitals, Leafs and Oilers to 1, 2 and 2 in in three straight games and lost all three. Like, it's just like it, it, it seems like it should be coming and it's just not. And then they get into now. Now is where you get stuff scared because now you've given up five or six to the Flames and the Sharks and these are teams that are bottom feeders. You're basically allowing them to get a little bit of hope going and that's where you get scared.

[Max Boltman]

And to go back to the conversation we were having about how difficult it is to make up ground, this is a team that's going to have to have Igor Shasterkin do it almost all by himself. He's just gonna have to go out and pitch like four straight shutouts against division rivals for them to make up the kind of ground they need to make up, you know, by Thanksgiving area.

[Mark Lazarus]

Yeah, it's, it's tough for the Rangers right now. All right, that is going to do it for us. Thanks for listening to this episode of the Athletic Hockey Show. You can subscribe on [e-mail] heathletic hockey show to watch full episodes. Frankie Corrada will be between two Sean's on Wednesday. We'll talk to you soon.

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