The Athletic Hockey Show – Episode Summary

Episode Title: Which Thanksgiving bubble teams will actually make the playoffs?
Date: December 1, 2025
Host(s): Max Bowman, Mark Lazarus, Jesse Granger, with guest Julian McKenzie

Overview of Theme

This episode centers around the NHL’s “Thanksgiving Rule”—the truism that teams in a playoff spot by Thanksgiving are likely to remain there—and examines which “bubble” teams are real playoff contenders in both the Western and Eastern Conferences. The hosts provide in-depth, analytical, and often passionate analysis of current team form, goaltending, and roster construction, and speculate on which teams could surge or fall as the season progresses. Later, Julian McKenzie joins to discuss his upcoming book, "Black Aces: Essential Stories from Hockey’s Black Trailblazers."

Western Conference Playoff Bubble Breakdown

Segment Start: [01:56]

Colorado Avalanche and the Central Division

• Avalanche’s dominance: Labeled as “the best team in hockey, and it’s not close.” ([02:43])
  • “They’re more the crap out of someone else since I saw that stat…This team is just wrecking everyone they play.” – Jesse ([02:43])
  • Avalanche’s goal differential of +48 dwarfs every other team; “They have one regulation loss...” ([04:22])
• Individual accolades:
  • Nathan MacKinnon: clear Hart Trophy frontrunner
  • Cale Makar: perennial Norris candidate
  • Jared Bednar: potential Coach of the Year consideration
• Dallas Stars:
  • “Four points back. They're not that far off in the standings. It just doesn't feel like the dominance is at the same level.” – Max ([05:39])
  • Jake Oettinger’s form is “kind of mediocre,” sparking speculation about Dallas’ ceiling and potential Vezina upside ([06:33])
• Minnesota Wild:
  • Recent 11-1-1 run; incredible goaltending from Jesper Wallstedt and Filip Gustavsson.
  • “From Panic City to Cruise Control.” – Mark ([07:44])

Goalie Deep-Dive

• “When the entire NHL is tied with each other, all 32 teams…it doesn't take much for the landscape to change drastically.” – Jesse on rapid shifts in team fate. ([06:33])
• Jesper Wallstedt’s emergence likened to highly-touted prospects.
  • “I just finished my goalie tandem power rankings…and I've got Minnesota number two.” – Jesse ([08:55])
  • Detailed technical praise for both Gustafsson’s and Wallstedt’s Swedish blocking styles ([10:32])
• Caution that Minnesota’s phenomenal numbers may regress to the mean as the season goes on ([11:56])

Pacific Division Surprises

• Anaheim Ducks:
  • Significant positive surprise; physical, talented, embrace “chaos” hockey.
  • “I'm fully bought in on Anaheim as being a playoff team contender.” – Jesse ([12:42])
  • Doubts about their playoff style: “They are fun. I love watching them play. But...they are pure chaos. Great in the regular season. I don't know if that's going to transfer into the playoffs.” – Mark ([13:52])
• Vegas Golden Knights and LA Kings: Solid but not as dominant as previous years.
• Playoff bubble in the West:
  • Wild card battle likely between Seattle, Utah, Chicago, and possible late surges by Edmonton and Winnipeg.

Bubble Team Confidence and Analysis

• Seattle Kraken:
  • “If I tried to believe in them less, I couldn't do it. I do not believe in that team.” – Jesse ([17:12])
  • “Statistically...they’re screaming they're going to fall out.” – Max ([15:58])
• San Jose & Utah:
  • “San Jose has some high, high end talent…but that is a bad hockey team.” – Mark ([17:51])
  • “Utah was a team coming into the year that I expect to be in a playoff spot...the Mammoth have a pretty strong case.” – Max ([18:03])
• Edmonton and Winnipeg:
  • All three hosts think both will ultimately make the playoffs, displacing current bubble teams.
  • “They always suck the first two months of the year…by the end of the season they're one of the best teams.” – Jesse, about the Oilers ([23:54])
  • Winnipeg’s reliance on Connor Hellebuyck; uncertain without him, and “underlying metrics are bad.” ([25:05])

Eastern Conference Playoff Bubble Analysis

Segment Start: [29:32]

The Tightest Bubble in Years

• Every team but one above .500; almost everybody within two points of each other ([31:13])
• “You could tell me a team’s going to miss the playoffs, I will believe you. You can tell me a team's gonna make the playoffs, and I will probably believe you.” – Mark ([30:24])

Rapid Fire Over/Under (Montreal, Boston, Philly, Pittsburgh)

• Jesse takes the over for more than 1.5 from this group missing the playoffs ([31:45])
• Goaltending defines Philly and Pittsburgh’s fortunes:
  • Dan Vladar “has been a superstar for the Flyers.” “Tristan Jarry ... has been awesome.”
  • Skepticism about sustainability: “I'm kind of waiting for the shoe to drop on those teams.” – Jesse ([33:21])

Boston Bruins’ Sustainability

• “Boston’s a team that makes no sense to me. I have no idea how they are. They're here because of Jeremy Swayman.” – Mark ([34:23])
• “That is thin ice.” – Jesse, on Boston’s reliance on elite goaltending ([37:37])

Deep Dives

• Montreal Canadiens: Hot start; concerns about lack of wins vs. top-tier opponents and a minus goal differential ([41:21])
• Pittsburgh Penguins: Surprising resilience; “We keep waiting for the bottom to fall out.” ([42:01])
  • New coaching utilization: Erik Karlsson killing penalties—“finally took a coach 17 years to realize he could.” – Julian ([42:31])
  • “Dan Muse might get Jack Adams votes.” ([43:52])
• Who would most harm themselves by making the playoffs?
  • “It's Pittsburgh, number one, then it's easy.” – Julian ([47:24])
  • Jesse pushes back, saying, “A chance to win another cup for Sidney Crosby…when I think there is a small percentage chance that it actually could happen...” ([48:43])

Bubble Teams Trying to Crash the Party

• Florida Panthers: Everyone expects them to surge as they get healthy ([55:55])
• Ottawa Senators: Seen as the best bet to jump in; “If Linus Hallmark can write the ship...the Senators are the team that I think knocks out, in addition to Florida, one of the teams that are in it right now.” – Max ([51:20])
• Rangers and Islanders: “I kind of like the Islanders more...the Islanders have a vibe about them.” – Mark ([53:43])
• Toronto, Buffalo, Detroit, Columbus: Dismissed as serious threats.

Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

On Colorado’s dominance:

• “I don't remember those teams kicking the living crap out of everyone the way the Colorado Avalanche are this season. I mean, they are.” – Jesse ([02:43])

On believing in the bubble:

• “If I tried to believe in [the Kraken] less, I couldn't do it.” – Jesse ([17:12])

On Pittsburgh's playoff calculus:

• “There is a small percentage chance [Crosby’s Penguins] actually could [win the Cup]…Nobody wants to play Sidney Crosby in the playoffs.” – Jesse ([48:43])

On the anxiety of book writing:

• “I write every day…I have it. Writing a book seems so daunting to me.” – Jesse ([69:12])
  • “For a book…that lasts forever. If I want to save a story off the Athletic, like I got to save the PDF and you send people links. Like my grandmother…does not have a subscription…But… I could give her the whole damn book.” – Julian ([69:55])

Julian McKenzie Interview: "Black Aces"

Segment Start: [59:01]

What Inspired the Book?

• “I've always wanted to write a book since I was a little kid…”
• Prompted by reporting on Bill Peters and Akiem Aliu’s story; saw a gap in deeper storytelling about Black players in hockey ([59:17])

Key Takeaways and Stories

• Focuses on both well-known and overlooked Black trailblazers: Willie O’Ree, Grant Fuhr, Jerome Iginla, Blake Bolden, Dante Abercrombie, Kelsey Koelzer, Angela James, among others ([59:17])
• “I learned a lot of stories… telling stories of players like Angela James. I like the fact that I was able to get female players in this, too.” ([59:17])

On the Herb Carnegie Chapter

• “Of all the chapters I wrote, that chapter was the one in my head I needed to get right…If someone could find a way to turn Herb Carnegie white, they would put him on the Leafs tomorrow…which is like a very brutal story.” ([64:09])
  • Carnegie’s line was called the "Black Aces," also the book's title ([64:09])

Approach to Book Writing

• “Writing a book is such a legacy thing… I definitely put a lot of pressure on myself to get this right.” ([69:55])
  • “I'm going to do that. I'm going to be insufferable…the first month of this book being out.” ([72:31])

Timestamps of Important Segments

• Avalanche’s dominance & Central Division analysis: [02:43] – [07:40]
• Pacific Division & Anaheim discussion: [12:42] – [15:00]
• Goaltending deep-dive (Minnesota, Seattle, San Jose): [08:55], [15:47] – [17:12]
• Edmonton/Winnipeg surge expectations: [21:36] – [25:48]
• Transition to Eastern Conference (with Julian McKenzie): [29:32]
• Philly, Pittsburgh, Boston, Montreal under the microscope: [31:45] – [37:37]
• Pittsburgh’s playoff futility and risk: [47:24] – [50:14]
• Ottawa and Florida optimism: [51:20] – [53:27]
• Julian McKenzie book discussion: [59:01] – [74:15]

Conclusion

This episode is a comprehensive midseason checkpoint that mixes statistical rigor, personal favorites, and hunches. It casts a skeptical but hopeful eye on bubble teams, unpacks the real stories behind the numbers, and brings a thoughtful, human perspective to hockey’s past and present through Julian McKenzie's interview. Listeners will leave with a clear sense of which NHL teams look like playoff locks, who might crash out, who could surprise, and the central importance of superstar goaltending, all while gaining a poignant appreciation for the game’s evolving culture off the ice.

Book Highlight:
Black Aces: Essential Stories from Hockey’s Black Trailblazers by Julian McKenzie
Out February 3, 2026 (Triumph Books) – Featuring trailblazing stories from the sport’s history, for anyone seeking to better understand or share the legacy of Black excellence in hockey.