A (1:25)

The sale ends soon.

C (1:26)

Visit thirdlove.com today.

B (1:41)

This is the Athletic Hockey Show.

A (1:56)

Hey everybody. Max Bowman here alongside Mark Lazarus and Jesse Granger for another episode of the Athletic Hockey Show. We're going to be talking about the playoff pictures in each conference today. Obviously everyone is familiar with the Thanksgiving rule. We're a couple days after that. But I think it's going to be an interesting rule to assess this year because there is so much parody, particularly in the East. Julian McKenzie going to join us a little bit later on. He's going to talk about his upcoming book, Black Aces. But let's start, guys, on the playoff pictures and I want to start in the west because at least in the west, there are some teams on the bottom who look like they're not going to be in it. We're going to talk about the east in a little bit and almost nobody is out of it there yet. The west is fascinating to me because there's a few teams on the bottom and there's one team up top that looks like they're have the potential to steamroll everybody, Jesse. And that's Colorado.

B (2:43)

Yeah.

C (2:43)

I mean, they're the best team in hockey, and it's not close. And I can't remember the last time, like, Florida has been dominating in a way we haven't seen, but I never felt like the gap between Florida and the rest of the league was as wide as it. And even, like, the Boston team, that one that broke. That broke Tampa's record, and that Tampa team, I don't remember those teams kicking the living crap out of everyone the way the Colorado Avalanche are this season. I mean, they are. I think they're like, plus 42 goal differential, and the next closest is like, 16. Like, we're talking 48. 48. Yeah. They've. They've. They're more the crap out of someone else since I saw that stat. Yeah, they. And. And then you look at the underlying numbers, it's like, okay, well, maybe they're just running hot. Nope. The underlying numbers, they're. If anything, they're, like, just as dominant. They're like a 60% expected goal share. This team is just wrecking everyone they play. They came to Vegas last week and they beat the Golden Knights the way they do everyone. And I remember a bunch of fans saying, man, these day games, these afternoon games are just really rough for the Golden Knights. It's like, I think they could play this game at any time you choose. And the Colorado Avalanche are going to kick your butt, because that's what they do.

B (3:52)

The Minnesota wild are, like, 11:1 in the month of November, and they're still nine points out. The Dallas Stars are the second best team in the league, and they're not even in the same zip code as the Avalanche. It's really. I mean, we knew the Central was going to be really good, and we knew the Avalanche always could be this good. We saw it a few years ago when they won the Stanley cup, and they kind of slid back a little bit to, like, really good instead of great. They are on another planet right now. This is like the Bruins a few years ago. This is the Blackhawks in 2013. We. We rarely see teams this utterly dominant in the NHL.

A (4:22)

They have one regulation loss, and here. Here's what's funny to me. They do have six ot losses, right? And, you know, Sean McAdoo loves to rail against the loser point. You know, there was a great article, actually, he had recently about how the hockey gods seem to reward teams that don't get the loser point. I think everyone should go check that out. But this is fascinating to me. So The Avalanche have 6 OT losses, right? If they had lost all those games in regulation, if they hadn't gotten to overtime in those games, they would still have the second most points in the NHL. So this team is, is an absolute wagon right now. Nathan McKinnon looks like the clear front runner for the, for the heart. I think Kel McCarr is always at least one of the top two or three candidates for the Norris. And what's funny is like, you can just kind of keep going and be like, well, I mean, Jared Bednar. Usually the coach of the year is going to go to the coach that turns around a bad team. But I think if, if you go through the whole year on this pace and you only lose, like, I mean, at this point, the pace would be losing like three games in regulation the whole year. I don't think that's going to happen. But if you have like 12 reg calculation losses in the whole year, I think you have to give them serious consideration. So the Avalanche, to me, are in a tier of their own. The question is, how far back are the Dallas Stars from that mark? Because they're not that far. You know, just you mentioned, like, different zip code. They're four points back. They're not that far off in the standings. It just doesn't feel like the, the dominance is at the same level.

B (5:39)

Well, that's the thing. And the Dallas Stars are really, really good. They are to, in my mind, clearly the second best team leads. Jason Robertson's playing his way onto Team usa. I don't know how you keep him out at this point. They're playing so well and they're doing it with Jake Ottinger being kind of mediocre. Right? So like, you could look at it as, oh, do you have a problem? Is this a problem that Jake Ottinger is, is struggling? Or do you think, man, how good can this team be once Jake Ottinger gets his stuff together, which you just kind of assume he will, but even if he does, I don't know how you keep up with Colorado. Like, these two teams are so much better. And then we really shouldn't sleep on Minnesota. They have been fabulous lately, just running roughshod through the league. The three best teams in the NHL right now might all be in the same division.

C (6:20)

I think they are.

A (6:21)

That's a hot take. That's a hot take to put minutes. We were just talking about them in the concern segment with Shayna like two weeks ago.

B (6:28)

Things change quickly in this business, man. They're 11, 1 and 1 this month.

C (6:33)

When the entire NHL is tied with each other, all 32 teams, which is essentially what we've got right now, it doesn't take much for. For the landscape to change drastically. I mean, I totally agree with everything he said about Dallas. And like you said with Ottinger, you can look at it two different ways. I think considering his age, considering the level of goalie he is, it would be shocking if he doesn't play better than he has. And he hasn't been bad. He's still been positive. Goal saved above expected. It's not as if he's going through like a rut that's hurting them, but he. He hasn't been. I thought this was going to be his Vezina year. Like, I. I don't know if I would have picked him, but it's like if there's a year, Jake Ottinger is going to win the Vezina with that team, with his age, everything lining up. I thought this was going to be the Vezna year that clearly isn't. I mean, there's still a lot of hockey to be played. But he's not even really in the conversation because he hasn't been great. And yet despite that, and despite the fact that Miko Rantin's killing someone every other night, that this team is really good, like, we undersell them because Colorado's in their division and they are on another level right now. But if Colorado didn't exist, we'd all be saying. We'd say. We'd be saying most of the same things about the Dallas Stars.

A (7:40)

Sell me on the Wild belonging in the same tier as the Stars last for the playoffs.

B (7:44)

I mean, they're. They're just running rough, shot over everybody. Like I said, they just came through Chicago here to me and Jesse can speak, you know, more eloquently on this than me, but the goaltending is phenomenal. I mean, Jesper Walstead has been just shutting guys out left and right. Philip Gustafson is his usual steady self. Kirill Caprizov is looking like Kirill Caprizov again. Like, the pressure he is under with that contract doesn't seem to be bugging him. Matt Boldy, who, when we talked about the Wild struggling a couple of weeks ago, it kind of started with Matt Boldy being very ordinary. He's been extraordinary now, you know, again, a Team USA fixture all of a sudden. Again, there's just a lot to like about this team and the way they're playing. They're Very cohesive. There's not a lot of superstars beyond those two guys, but everyone's kind of bought in and playing their role and it's just remarkable how far they've come in such a short amount of time. From Panic City to Cruise Control.

A (8:31)

You will not find a bigger Matt Boldy fan than me. You may not find a bigger Joel Erickson EK fan than me. I really believe in both of those players. My, my question is when you get this kind of goaltending, I'm always a little bit. Not that it, not that there's anything against it. It's just I think it makes me question whether you can keep this up when it's on the back of such like no one is going to have as good a two week span for the rest of the season as Jesper Wallstead has had over the last two weeks. Am I, am I wrong in saying that?

C (8:55)

Jesse well, I mean Yaroslav Askarov in San Jose would have something to say about it because he's having a pretty good month, but I agree with you that he's, he's been on absolute fire and like. So I just finished my goalie tandem power rankings that came out this morning and I think the team that will surprise the ranking that will surprise people the most of all of them is I've got Minnesota number two. When you think of the elite goalies in the league, you don't generally think of the wild goalies, but they've been awesome. I think Philip Gustafsson is one of the most underrated goalies in the league. And now with Walstead's emergence, I mean, this is the way Macklin Celebrini and Leo Carlson and Connor Bedard are coming out. Like this is their coming out party this season. To me, as the goalie guy, I view Jesper Walstedt almost exactly in the same light in that this is an elite prospect of a goalie who has all the pedigree and has been amongst the best at his age since he was like down to when he was like 5 years old. This has been one of the best goalies in the world at his age group. And now he did have a disappointing season in the AHL and there was a lot of scrutiny around him. The thing with the AHL is it's a mess and if you're a goalie who relies on reads, it's tough down there because you're so used to when you're an elite player, you're playing with the best of your age group your whole life. These Guys are making the plays they want to make. Then you get to the AHL and.

A (10:18)

It'S just like us, like us.

C (10:19)

Just a slosh and the pucks are just flying at you from random areas.

B (10:23)

I don't see that with forwards too because it's a dump and chase league and high skill guys don't succeed in a dump and chase league. It's not a good analog for the NHL a lot of times, right.

C (10:32)

And for a goalie, specifically one who relies on reads like Jesper Walsted and I, these, this is an elite goalie who is now looking the part. It is like this. This isn't to me a flash in the pan. Oh, look at this year. We see it every year. Some young goal like Alex Lyon in Buffalo had an amazing two week stretch to start the season. Nobody really thought it was going to last and it really hasn't. Walstedt, I feel differently because of his pedigree, because of how talented he is. And I think maybe we're finally seeing it. And I just love this tandem together. It's two Swedes, they're both big, they play similar sty styles in that they, they aren't making saves, they're making blocks. They get into the right position, they position their body and then you shoot the puck into them because you have no choice and there's no net to shoot at. And I think when you look at the stats that kind of bears out, there's only five goalies in the league with multiple shutouts this year. Two of them play for the Minnesota Wild. And a shutout is harder to get than a one goal game because it's like all you need is one mistake. Well, these guys don't make mistakes. They play the type of, the style of goaltending that can be amazing for a long stretch when they're on because they're not having to stab pucks out of the air with their gloves, they're not having to react to shots, they're just in the right spot and then you, you shoot the puck into them. So the, the style, the pedigree, everything about this, to me I, I expect the Minnesota Wild to have the best, one of the best, if not the best goaltending in the entire NHL from here out.

A (11:56)

And they might. It's just that like when I Look at Wallstead, the.938 save percentage, right, like that's still 20 to 25 points higher than Vasilevsky. Connor Hellebuk, he, he might be one of the better goalies in the league, but he's probably gonna settle into like a 920 over, over a longer span, I think. And when you're winning a lot of one goal games like they are, that's I think where my hesitation comes in. But they, they may belong there. Like it's not that I'm saying that they, they shouldn't, they're not going to make the playoffs or anything like that. I'm just kind of questioning the, the Colorado and the Dallas neighborhood as opposed to the next group of teams I want to talk about which is really the three Pacific seeds, Vegas, LA and Anaheim. To me, I. My question I guess to start off Jesse, is what's the bigger surprise that Vegas is down in this tier and not with Dallas and Colorado or that Anaheim and LA are up with Vegas?

C (12:42)

Well, I think Anaheim is the biggest, is the biggest surprise just because we didn't know if that team was going to take this step and they clearly have like I am fully bought in on, on Anaheim as being a playoff team contender. I'm still a little skeptical but in terms of being a playoff team, they're there. And they're not just the skill, they're not just the kids they like. Chris Kreider is scoring ugly goals in front of the net. He's doing everything the Rangers wish they had right now. Like the back end. Radko Gudis is a physical presence on there. Even the young kids. Carlson is a big kid. He's winning wall battles. He that team can play winning hockey in the time of year. You need to win hockey games to make the playoffs. I am fully sold on Anaheim and to me that's a huge surprise. Like we've seen the talent but there are plenty of other teams that we've seen the town. Buffalo Sabres, plenty of talent and we're expecting it every year and it just never happens. And then all of a sudden for it to just come together like this. I think they're the best team in the Pacific. They played the Golden Knights twice already. They beat them twice. They've been the better team in both games throughout. It's like the Golden Knights taking a step back is a little bit of surprise, but not. I'm not nearly as surprised about that as I am with the step the Anaheim Ducks have taken.

B (13:52)

I want to see what the Anaheim Ducks like they're going to make the playoffs. I think that's pretty clear. They have, they have a style that plays in the regular season. I'm wondering if they have a style that plays in the playoffs because they make a lot of mistakes. They give up a lot of odd man rushes the other way. They do. They do not play a tight, structured style. And Joel Quinville is the kind of coach who. It's interesting watching him embrace this. He's embracing the madness with the Ducks and with these young players in particular. But in the playoffs, you know, is Joel Quinville going to be able to. He's the all time great line matcher in the playoffs. Is he going to be able to line match his way to success in playoff style hockey? He's an all time great closer. Can this team close out games and close out series? I mean, I'm already past the. Is this a playoff team? My question is, are the Anaheim Ducks a contender? That's where I'm having a little trouble, you know, calling them that because the goaltending is not as good as we thought it was going to be and this team structure is a mess. They are fun. I love watching them play. But you know, just here on Sunday afternoon, they go up three nothing against the Blackhawks and lose five. Three to a team that had just lost five in a row. This team is all over the place. They are pure chaos. Great in the regular season. I don't know if that's going to transfer into the playoffs.

A (15:00)

I'm with you. I think this tier to me is all going to make it most likely, right? I mean, la. I think there was a flash early this season where you go, oh, are they. Do they have a lot of old defensemen? Are they going to kind of hit a cliff if Anze Kopitar can't will them there? I think they've really leveled off. Corey Perry has been, we talked about it last episode, a fantastic addition there. They seem pretty, pretty solid. And so I feel pretty comfortable in all three of those teams that they're gonna make it, whether it's in a wild card or not. Again, we, I think, we all think Edmonton is coming and we're going to get to that in a minute. I think the teams that, you know, whereas with the east there's this wide bubble, to me, the, the bubble in the west is pretty simple. It's the two teams that are on it right now, Seattle and Utah against everybody else. And when you look at the Kraken in particular, like it's the worst expected goal share in hockey, like that's a team that, that is screaming like, okay, we're going to be one of the two teams statistically, right?

C (15:47)

It's.

A (15:48)

I think it's just about 80%, might be 77 I believe of the teams that are in a playoff spot on Thanksgiving Day and again, we're doing this a couple of days after Thanksgiving, tend to make the playoffs.

C (15:58)

Right.

A (15:58)

So that would say across the league, three or four teams that are in it right now likely won't be. Seattle is number one on my list of teams that are going to fall out of that.

B (16:07)

I agree. I mean, they play that kind of really slow, grind it out style that, that it's John Tortorella hockey where they're going to get a lot of points and they're going to stay on that bubble all year. They're not going to just completely fade off. I think it was Oliver Moore with the Blackhawks when we were in, in Seattle and this is like his first game of the year and as a young guy and he's like, yeah, they don't do a whole lot out there. Like, it's not. It's easy to make fun of the Seattle Kraken because they play such boring hockey, they're such a boring coach. Everything about it is boring, but it grinds out points. They're going to be there all season long. But I'm with you. It's hard to imagine that team actually making the playoffs. To me, it's like, it's like if you go down to San Jose. San Jose and Seattle analytically are atrocious teams, but San Jose has some high, high end talent in Celebrini and Smith and some of these guys. And they've got a goalie, Yaroslav Eskarov, who is just outperforming metrics to a ridiculous level. He is a goal saved above expected machine because he's playing by the team behind which you should give up 10 goals a game. I don't know if he could do that all year long, but I trust that almost as much as I more than I trust Seattle being able to grind their way to 95 points.

C (17:12)

It sucks for the podcast to just unanimously agree like this, but I could not believe in the Seattle crack in less. Like, if I tried. If I tried to believe in them less, I couldn't do it. I do not believe in that team. Not a shred of me believes in that team. And to Mark's point about the goal states above expected for a scar of. I was looking at the numbers the other day and it is like hilarious how and you have to play behind a bad defense to be able to rack them up the way he has. Like, just for context, the leaders in the entire league for the whole season are right around 20 goal stage above expected. That's Swayman and Spencer Knight. Askarov had 18 and a half just in November. Goal state above expected.

B (17:49)

San Jose Sharks.

C (17:50)

Absolutely insane number.

B (17:51)

The Sharks are a very, very bad team but they've got such high end skill on the back end and up front that they can kind of outperform that sometimes. But they are, that is a bad hockey team.

A (18:03)

All right, well how about the other bubble team here then? Utah? Do we have any more? I certainly have more than I have in Seattle. Like Utah was a team coming into the year that I expect to be in a playoff spot. The rise of Minnesota I think is tough for Utah because you also have Winnipeg in that division that's going to be coming for them and or a wild card spot. But Utah is similar. Like a lot of young talent. I think they have enough veterans too. Like maybe goaltending is kind of the tiebreaker there. That works against them, Jesse. But the Mammoth I think have a pretty strong case here as a team that we should be talking about having a chance at the right side of the bubble.

C (18:35)

Yeah, they've, they've got a lot more game breaking type players than like Seattle for example. Like I, when I was just there watching the Golden Knights play them and they put it on Vegas pretty big. Cooley is just unbelievable. Like to me that's the difference is they're kind of the. We just talked about San Jose being like an awful team but they've got the high, high end skill and then Seattle's kind of the opposite. They've got a bunch of grinded out players, like solid players but not any like elite guys. I think Utah is sort of the mix between the two. Like they've got the high end skill but they also have some like it's a deep team that can roll four lines at you and Karel Va Melka in net. Like I don't, I wouldn't call it a strength but I don't think he is a major weakness. Like I think that's he's a solid goalie who's. They're asking a lot from him is the problem is they're, they're. Utah is using Velka the way Tampa Bay uses Vasilevsky and the way Winnipeg uses Conor Hellebuyck and he's just not that tier of goalie. So I do think that maybe he gets worn down as the season goes on. But from what I've seen now he's very good and the only. Yeah, like you said, the problem with believing in Utah is It means that Edmonton and Winnipeg, one of those two, isn't going to make it right. Like, and I don't think that at all. Like I believe in Winnipeg and Edmonton far more even with Ella Buck out like he's eventually going to come back. I believe in Edmonton and Winnipeg way more than I believe in Utah.

B (19:53)

Yeah, I mean I've been in Utah's corner since their last year in Arizona. I've been picking them to make the playoffs and I thought we were finally seeing them take that leap early on this year. But they've kind of settled back into that like 10th place kind of team where like they're going to be in the mix. But it is, it's really hard to see them holding off. Edmonton and Winnipeg, two more proven teams like that for the, over the next 60 some odd games. It just seems like it's a little too much to ask right now.

A (20:17)

And actually you know what, I need to correct myself because I said Utah was the other team that's in there. After Chicago's Sunday night win over Anaheim, Chicago was actually in that spot. So let's talk about the Blackhawks.

B (20:29)

Yeah, that's after a five game losing streak where you know, things were starting to come to. Hey, we talked about how the Avalanche had been destroying everybody. Blackhawks played them a few days ago and it was a one nothing game. They played really, really well against the Avalanche. Connor Bedard's line was matching up. Jeff Blashcher just threw Bedard out there against Nathan McKinnon and they, they played him to a standstill. Bedard had four more points today. He's second in the league in scoring. Now he's ahead of celebrities, tied with Celebrini with one fewer game played. He is the, he, he might be the league MVP right now if the Blackhawks somehow miraculously do get into the playoffs. This is a Taylor hall mvp. It's, it's, it's one guy. You know, Spencer Knight's been amazing and a lot of guys have been really, really good. But Connor Bedard is the reason they're here. He is taking over games. Today was his or. Sunday was his 11th multi point game in 25 games. He is exploding. He hasn't had more than one game without a point in a row all season. He's consistent, he's playing good defense. He's winning 50% of his face offs. Every single thing people were saying about Connor Bedard that he was bad at, he's now pretty good at and he's scoring in bunches. So like right now, if the Blackhawks are in the playoffs and at this moment that we're having this conversation, they are. He's your mvp.

A (21:36)

But to Jesse's point, if for them to get in or for Utah to get in, it's going to mean one of Edmonton or Winnipeg does it? And I think all three of us believe in both of those teams still. Jesse, let's start here. Where does Edmonton rank in your goalie tandem rankings?

C (21:54)

Edmonton fans, close your ears. They are second to last right now. I couldn't put them last because the St. Louis Blues goaltending has been an absolute train wreck. They can't stop anything right now. And actually what's funny is like talent wise, I actually believe in both the Blues goalies, but I couldn't bring myself to put him anywhere but last with how bad the stats are. But one spot above them is the Edmonton Oilers. And the difference between those two teams is the Edmonton Oilers have Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl and are expecting to win a Stanley cup this year. And they're being let down by the goalies. And yet the GM seems totally fine with that. It seems like he's just cool with rolling Calvin Pickard out every three games. And Stuart Skinner is my guy and we're not going to make a trade just to make one. Even though the players aren't any good that we're currently playing. It's, it's very, very strange. Stuart Skinner will have the game here or there where he's awesome because he's a big guy. So when he's on his game, there's not much to shoot at. And he had that game the other night, got a shutout against Seattle, a team we just talked about can't score anything. Maybe that'll quiet the talk a little bit, but not by much because that I think they're dead last and safe percentage and they're just, they're. They're not good enough to win the Stanley cup with Connor McDavid. And you've got to make a move to, to give yourself a chance, the chance that another goalie is good enough. We know these two aren't.

B (23:18)

I agree, but. But again, when it comes down to it, it'd be really cool if Utah made the playoffs, if San Jose made the playoffs, if Chicago made the playoffs. I don't think any of the three of us actually think they will. I think we all think Edmonton is going to course, because, I mean, they're right outside the bubble. They're right there. It's not like they have a huge mountain to climb. And Winnipeg, Same thing. When Conor Hellebuyck comes back, I'm sure they'll just have like a big February or something, or March and blow up and win a bunch of games. Everything will be fine. The status quo will be largely maintained and Anaheim will be really our only gate crasher because these teams are on the verge, which is cool, but it usually takes another year or two before they really crash the party for good.

C (23:54)

If Edmonton didn't do this every year, I don't think we'd have this strong of a belief. It's like I've seen this story before. They always suck the first two months of the year. Like they do this every year and then every year by the end of the season they're one of the best teams and we expect them to go deep in the playoffs. So like if we didn't have all those prior experiences, I don't think our confidence level in Edmonton would be as high as it is right now.

B (24:15)

Well, we'll have the same conversation, I'm sure when we talk about the Florida Panthers, they don't care about the regular season because they know better. They know that none of this matters. They just have to get in. They know they're good enough to get in and they know how to find that switch on the wall in April when it's time to flip it.

A (24:29)

Yeah, I think my biggest question about the Oilers is whether their surge is going to require a coaching change to start some like 15 games and 15 wins out of 17 game streak or if they're going to be able to get it done with Chris Knobloch. Like that's really my only question because it's coming. It's just a matter of Chris Knobloch.

B (24:44)

Did that two years ago. Right.

A (24:45)

I mean this is exactly 100%. So Winnipeg, I will say I have a little more uncertainty on just because Conor Hellebuk is the league MVP for a reason. They've lost four of their last five. Right. Like this is a team that rel heavily on him. He's not going to be out forever. But they could dig themselves into a hole that's hard to get out of Jesse for sure.

C (25:05)

And, and the underlying metrics for Winnipeg are bad. Like they, when you look at like expected goal share, high danger, chance share, all these numbers that typically tell help predict the future more than just the scores on the score sheet, none of those are very good for Winnipeg. And, and to be honest, they weren't great last year. And that's why Connor Hellebuck was the Heart Trophy winner because he was covering up a lot of warts on this team. All of a sudden he's gone. Warts show up a lot more when it's not him back there. And the question is, okay, when he comes back, he's going to do what he does. He's going to make up for a lot of those errors. But is it like, like, like you were saying with Anaheim, Like, I. Even if Winnipeg makes the playoffs, if they're able to eke in, are they good enough to make a run? And.

B (25:48)

Or are.

C (25:49)

Or is Connor Hellebuk carrying. This is one of the things we've never really talked about with the Connor Hellebuk playoff struggles is what if he's just dragging this team that doesn't belong to the playoffs there every year and then he gets whooped on by the real good, by the, by the real playoff teams and then we all blame him for it. Like there is that chance that he's just dragging this team to the playoffs every year and maybe without him for a month and a half, we'll actually get to see what this team looks like without a superstar goalie behind it. And maybe it changes the narrative a little.

A (26:20)

I know we didn't spend a whole lot of time on the Blues, the Canucks, the Flames, the Predators. The Blues, to their credit, have, similar to Edmonton a couple times, done this, dug themselves a really deep hole and found a way out of it. I'm going to assume unless one of you guys tells me otherwise, none of us see that coming this time around.

B (26:35)

No, the west, the west is very different than the East. We will talk about how the parody in the east is insane. The west is like a normal season, right? You have a couple of great teams and you have a handful of really bad teams. And the Flames are really bad, the Predators are really bad, the Canucks are really bad, and the Blues are really bad. I don't think anyone thinks that they're going to really make any kind of realistic thread. Yeah.

A (26:56)

So let's cherish this neat and tidy feeling we have right now where we feel like we have a good handle on the bubble and some consensus on who's coming out of it. Now we're going to take a break and we come back, we're going to have Julian McKenzie and it's going to be chaos because the east is one big tie.

C (27:09)

We'll be right back.

A (27:12)

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C (28:42)

Of course you did. Because you used Instacart to do your grocery restock.

D (28:45)

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B (29:04)

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B (29:15)

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A (29:32)

Terms apply. See capitalone.com for details. All right, we are back, and we are joined now by Julian McKenzie. Julian has a book coming out this February called Black Aces. Essential Stories from Hockey's Black Trailblazers. Excited to talk about that in a little bit. But first, we're talking about the Eastern Conference. And Julian, before you got here, we were talking about the Western Conference. The teams that we feel like are locks. The teams like we feel like are on the bubble and likely to get in obviously relative to the Thanksgiving line that we're always hearing about. And then the teams that we think that are out and can work their way in and now we're going to go to the east on that. And I feel like the east as as opposed to the west has maybe some clearer tiers in this group. Laz, like who are our locks at this point? We're probably talking Tampa, Carolina, Washington, I think we're still talking New Jersey. Anyone else that you feel like really a lock?

B (30:24)

Laz, honestly, are there any teams in the east that you feel really good about? I mean, maybe Tampa or especially in the, in the Atlantic Division. Maybe Tampa. They've got seven straight wins. Seems like they're becoming the team that we thought they were. But you know, New Jersey's in first place. But they're deeply flawed. They are, you know, injury ravaged. You can't feel great about them. With Jack Hughes out, you can find a glaring flaw with every other so called contender on this team. You know, Carolina's got the same questions we always have with them with the goaltending and everything else. And you know, you can find a whole bunch of glaring flaws and all these guys that are like right around the bubble and it makes for really entertaining watching of the hockey. But like the west is so differently constructed than the east right now. I don't feel great about a single team in the Eastern Conference. You could tell me a team's going to miss the playoffs, I will believe you. You can tell me a team's going to make the playoffs and I will probably believe you.

A (31:13)

But the flip side of that is that almost nobody is out of this. Right? Like there's only one team below.500 in the entire Eastern Conference. Almost everybody's within really, almost everybody's within two points, let alone four. So that really you have this full bubble that basically comprises half of what's going to end up being the playoff field. Jesse, if I set the over under for you right now at one and a half, teams out of Montreal, Boston, Philly and Pittsburgh, all of them in right now. If I set the over at one point, five of those to miss the playoffs, are you taking the over? The under?

C (31:45)

I'm going over going. I think, I think two of them will fall out. I don't think more than two. So if it was two and a half, I probably would have went under. But you found the sweet spot at one and a half.

D (31:54)

I.

C (31:54)

Some of these teams like Pittsburgh and Philly Are. It's. It's so tough to figure out what those teams are because like especially me looking at it from a goalie perspective, those, those were the two worst teams in the entire NHL last year when it came to goaltending. Like as a whole, Pittsburgh and Philly. This year, not only is the goaltending not a weakness, they're being carried by it. Like, Dan Vladar has been a superstar for the Flyers. He's the MVP on that team. And we've never seen that from Dan Vladar for like he played five years and he had never had a safe percentage above the league average. He had never been more than just a backup. Now he was behind some good goalies and, and we do see goalies get bigger opportunities and rise to that. And he's clearly doing that. But it does give you some hesitancy of like, can he maintain this for an entire season? Can he be the guy and be a high end goalie, which is what he's been for Philly. Like if, if for those of you haven't aren't watching Flyers games, like, Dan Velar has been awesome. He is a monster in terms of the size. When he's playing well, there is no net to shoot at. It's over. Like, you don't score on him. So. And, and Pittsburgh. Tristan Jari has had like the dude got one waved down to the AHL last year. He's been awesome. Archer, she loves has. He's cooled off a little bit. She loves has. But he's still good. The, the, the prospect Maruschev has come up and been awesome. Like, I just don't trust that all that's going to hold up. It's been fun to watch. I'm a little skeptical and I'm kind of waiting for the shoe to drop on those teams.

B (33:21)

So the question I have is Boston. Boston's a team that makes no sense to me. I have no idea how they are. I mean they're here because of Jeremy Swayman. You want to talk about goaltending? Swayman has been so good in November. I think he's at a 935 this month after, you know, since that seven goals he gave up in Ottawa, Julian, that you were there for. He's just completely turned things around. He's eight and two in that span. This is the third worst expected goals team in the league. They're getting by on special teams. They got a great power play and they got a top 10 penalty kill and they got a great goalie. Morgan Geeke is not going to shoot, you know, 30% for the whole year here. He's a 33 goal guy last year. He's not suddenly a 60 goal guy this year. He's been great and that's great for Boston, but this doesn't feel sustainable. Jeremy Swayman is going to have to be a 935 goalie for the rest of the year for Boston to somehow get in the playoffs. Of Boston, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, I could see three or four of these teams. I know it violates the Thanksgiving rule, but I still, I'm looking at those teams that are on the outside. I still think Florida gets their act together. I can see even Toronto getting its act together. I have a tough time believing Boston and Pittsburgh can keep this up for like five more months.

A (34:23)

Let's stick on Boston there. Julian, you've seen them live, I think twice this year already. So why don't we go to you here? Like, what are you seeing with Boston?

D (34:29)

Just the fact that like, I mean the fact that Morgan Geekie has picked up his play and the fact that he's turned himself into like a star player on that team. Like, I think he's obviously turned into like one of the really good stories on this group. I still felt that all the people who dumped on Boston to start the year, like you could do so much worse than having Pasternox, Swayman and McAvoy. And I get with McAvoy with, with health issues and stuff, it's a little different. But like that's still a good starting point for any team, I find. I just felt with the composition of the players that they had and the goaltender that they were obviously going to get with Swayman and I think Marco Sturm deserves some credit with what he's been able to do with that group. I think that I don't know if they're a playoff team. I don't think they're better. I think they're definitely better than what they're going to show last year. I could see them on the way out. I still think Ottawa is a team that's going to stick in and maybe this is just like the home coverage bias showing up here. And I've seen them more than any other team that we're going to talk about in the Eastern Conference. But like, I just think the goaltending is starting to take a turn for the better. They were among the worst in safe percentage to start off the year. They've actually gotten better in November. The penalty kill. I know, as I know in Dallas yesterday, didn't show up too great against a really good stars team, but even the penalty kill is starting to get a little bit better. Tim Stutzla has played like a really good player. In the absence of Brady Tkachuk, who they now have back, I think just in totality with the fact that they've been able to commit to themselves playing defensively, they could still find a way to just sustain themselves and keep themselves in the playoffs. For a Pittsburgh. I like their start. I like the fact that they were getting good goaltending. I like the fact that their star players are obviously still their star players and they're giving themselves that second breath of life under Dan Muse. I like the fact that Eric Carlson's also playing really well in that group, too. I think they could fade a little bit by the middle of the season, if not later. But you know what? I think they might have done enough to kind of just keep themselves afloat in that Eastern Conference to potentially be a playoff team. I'm not that impressed with so many other teams in the conference, though. That being said, I do agree that Florida's probably going to find a way to turn around. I just think they're inevitable. I think the way that they started off this year with all the injuries that they sustain and they play, they've played a lot of hockey over in the last three years, they were bound to start off pretty slow. Once they get Matthew Tkachuk back, not holding out hope for Barkov, but once they get Matthew Tkachuk back and once they get themselves, you know, further up in the standings, I think they're going to be a playoff team again. And then once they make the playoffs, I mean, watch out to all those other teams in the, in the west, in the Eastern Conference.

B (36:58)

Julian, for the record, all those people that were down on Boston, talking about them in the Gavin McKenna sweepstakes, they were all Bruins fans. Boston. Nobody was, nobody was down harder on the Bruins entering the season than Boston fans.

D (37:08)

Fans.

A (37:09)

Oh, I might have been. I, I, I might have been down.

D (37:11)

There are a lot of people who are really down hard on, on Boston this year. I just, I just felt that with the composition of players that they have, they weren't, they're not a lottery team. I could be, but just remember how.

B (37:20)

Bad Jeremy Swayman was not good last year. Like what he's doing.

D (37:23)

He was not good last year, but he's better.

B (37:25)

We weren't sure he was going to do this.

A (37:27)

It's pretty like logical explanation. He missed all that time at the start of last year. He has the Bad year like that is. That is an easy route back to being good.

C (37:37)

Not only just the. It's also just the mental, like, gymnastics that he went through of. You lose Lena Soulmark, your safety blanket of like, when you've got that other guy in the tandem that, you know, like, if. If I'm not having my best week, that guy will just handle it and the team isn't going to drown if I have a bad week or a bad month. So all of a sudden, it's all on you. Every single time you have a down month, a down week, the team's going right there with you. You get that massive contract, all the expectation. I get it. He's come in this year, he's looked himself. He is like, so goalies can't control the game. They can only react to it. He is the only, like, he is the closest thing to a goalie who controls the game because of how well he controls rebounds, how he, like, he just absorbs everything. It just feels like. And like Mark was mentioning Boston, their analytics are horrible. I think they're giving up the most high danger chances of any team in the league. Imagine if Jeremy Swayman wasn't doing what he's doing because I think he's saving them. Like, it's not just the saves he's making. I think he's saving them from having to make more saves because he controls rebounds so well. His positioning is so good. He is just square to the puck at all times. Everything is going into the corner or sticking in his gut and he's. He's actually making that team look better than it even is. So I agree with Mark that, like, that is thin ice. And then to me, I see Ottawa as the exact opposite. Like, they're right now number one in the NHL in least amount of high danger chances allowed is Vegas. That doesn't surprise anyone. Number two, Ottawa. They are playing great defense, but when you watch the games, it doesn't feel like that because they're in shootouts every night because the goaltending has been so bad. And it's not these horrible goalies that no one ever expects to get better. It's Linus Ohmark. He's a good goalie. Like, maybe he's getting a little up there in age, but he should play better. And like Julian said, he has lately. So you look at the underlying metrics for Ottawa and then you, you, you assume that these go, these aren't terrible goalies. You. They're going to get better. I see a path for, for Ottawa to Be not just a playoff team, but like one of the. If, if, if things start clicking, especially for Omar, that could be one of the favorites going into the playoffs in the East.

A (39:37)

Yeah, Jesse, Boston is, is one of those teams where if they can get into March still in this. I think you kind of like a little bit of their construction in terms of like what wins in the playoffs. It's great goaltending. It's. If they can get a Charlie Mac healthy, Charlie McEvoy back, it's good defense and they got some guys that'll bang bodies and Castell and Jano, like that can play. And to last his point about Morgan Geeky, I felt the same way that you said about like there's no way he's going to shoot 30%. I felt the same way coming into this season and we had Fluto on for the divisional preview and I'm like, Fluto, you know, there's a lot about Boston that feels like it could fall out, you know, Is Morgan Geeky going to shoot 22% again? Well, here he's shooting 29% and Fluto was resolute that yes, he absolutely can score 30 plus goals again whether it came by shooting percentage or not. I'm seeing him score every which way. I saw him score last night or two nights ago on a deflection in front of the net and then later on like a power play, one timer, like he can just do it every which way. And I don't think he's going to continue to match goals with Nathan McKinnon for the rest of this season. But like he looks like he's going to score 40 this year and that is not something I planned on coming in. So I, I agree with the skepticism about Boston, but they only have to defy it so long before their game starts to really fit how late season hockey is played. Let's go to Montreal here because the Canadiens are a team that I really struggle to get my head around. They came out really blazing hot. They had the great run last year. They're starting to pick it back up again. But I still look at them and they only have three wins over teams that made the playoffs last year. Three out of the 13. All the other teams in this group of Montreal, Boston, Philly and Pittsburgh have more than that. Most of them have significantly more than that. Boston has eight of them. Montreal's got three. Does that concern you? I mean, last year's playoffs aren't necessarily this year's playoffs, but I do think there's a decent correlation between who's good and what you've been able to do, Laz?

B (41:21)

I mean, they've got a minus five goal differential. That's alarming. They're not playing great hockey anymore, especially given the way they started. But I still like the makeup of this team. I think they've got seven or eight guys with at least seven goals this year. It's not just Cole Caulfield out there scoring. It's not just Nick Suzuki setting guys up. They have a really balanced offense, which I like a lot. And, you know, you figure that when the goaltending kind of comes back around. And I have a tough time seeing them fall out, but I'm starting to have a tough time seeing them as a true contender with the Tampas and Carolinas and new jerseys of it all.

A (41:53)

Yeah, yeah, it's tough. And then you have Pittsburgh, and Pittsburgh's, you know, kind of been the surprise team of the league for me. A team that we all thought was.

B (42:01)

We keep waiting, right? We keep waiting for the bottom to fall out. Like, they keep having. They lose, like, two or three games in a row. It's like, ah, here it comes. Here comes the regression. And then they pull out, like, a really nice win. It's hard to get. It's hard to get a feel after them.

C (42:12)

Last year, Washington, it was that exact same thing. We were like, this team is old. They will eventually fall apart. They're. And like, they never did. They. They. They were one of the best teams in the east all year. They didn't go all the way, but they were good in the playoffs. Like, they. They proved that they were a good team. So, like, I feel like we're doing it all over again with the Penguins.

D (42:31)

Did you guys hear Carlson on Hockey Night in Canada over the weekend saying it finally took a coach 17 years to realize he could kill penalties? The Penguins have Erik Carlson killing penalties. And it's working. I don't know. I think it's super. I think it's really funny to see this, like, of all the teams that we expected to see compete for the Gavin McKenna sweepstakes, like, Pittsburgh was supposed to be number one. Like, that was supposed to be a team that we all thought was going to be out of it from the first week of the season and to see them be competitive. Like, Dan Muse might get Jack Adams votes for what he's been able to do with this group. Like, I think they're a really cool story to start. I don't know if they're going to end up sticking. It'd Be fun to see them stick and get into the playoffs as like one last gasp for that big three up front. But like, I don't know, I think it's been kind of cool to see them kind of defy expectations.

B (43:18)

It really is astonishing to me how few offensive players get to kill penalties. Like, if you're an offensive star, you should be out there kill. You should be the aggressor. You should be pressuring at the point. You should be trying to create scoring opportunities. You get, you know, you can get more scoring chances shorthanded than you can five on five sometimes if you're the right kind of aggressive. And Carlson's smart on. I know he's never been known as a defensive shutdown guy, but he's a smart enough player that he should be able to capitalize on shorthanded opportunities more than your average player.

D (43:46)

I just thought it was like a fun thing to bring up with the Penguins. Who again, just the fact that Dan.

B (43:52)

Muse might be the leader. You talk about him maybe getting some votes. He might. It's him and Joel Quinville right now. I feel like our neck and neck for coach of the year. I don't think it's a question on.

D (44:01)

A group that couldn't. That either struggled to get into the playoffs or couldn't get into the playoffs with Mike Sullivan at the head.

B (44:06)

Like it's not doing all that well right now.

D (44:09)

No, no. Not doing that well with the New York Rangers at all. Yeah, I. Pittsburgh, it'd be fun to see them in the playoffs. I don't know why, but I feel like maybe Montreal I'm a little bit more sure of just because of the fact that they were able to do it last year. I think the high end talent I think has been, has been solid for them. I, I do like what Ivan Dimitov's been able to play with them, has been able to do in, in playing with them. Obviously the goaltending I'm not as sure about. I think Sam Montan both taking a step back this year. Jakob Dobus could stand to be a little bit better too. And I think even in those games that they did win, I mean there was a lot of high event hockey in the overtime games that they were able to win. I think they just need a little bit more depth up and down the center position. And also the injuries that they sustain throughout the year. I mean, Alex Newhook being out long term, Kaden Gooley being out as well, that does not help a team like the One Truck and Ian So, yeah, they get the win over Vegas, but I think long term, it's still not the greatest situation. Not to mention, they also got their butts spanked by Colorado the other day, too. Like, it's.

B (45:08)

Who doesn't.

D (45:09)

Yeah, it's true. Colorado's been really good as well. I think Montreal, if they make the right move at the deadline, they could put themselves in a position where they could still be a playoff team, but it's still going to be a little bit shaky for them to get there.

A (45:22)

All right, so history says two of these four, Montreal, Boston, Pittsburgh, Philly, do not make the playoffs. I guess technically it's of any of the. But if we assume that the other four are in.

B (45:30)

In.

A (45:30)

Jesse, which two are out in this group?

C (45:32)

Sorry, Pennsylvania. The whole state.

D (45:36)

They're out. It's.

C (45:38)

It's. I. I like what I've seen from them. I just am a little skeptical. I'm not quite sold on it. And sometimes those. Like, I just talked about Washington. I was not sold on Washington all year last year. I was wrong. They did it the whole year. We'll see if these teams can keep it up. I will say with Montreal, I want to see. And it's also like a little bit in the west, like these young, skilled teams that aren't as heavy and aren't as. They don't have as many veterans. They. The hockey in October and November is built for the Montreal Canadiens and the Ducks and the Sharks and like the Blackhawks. And I'm curious how these young, skilled teams are going to fare as the games start to pile up, as the things start to slow down, the time and space available on the ice starts to disappear as the playoffs get closer. Like, that would be my hesitation. Montreal. Whereas with Pittsburgh and Philly, I'm not as concerned about that like, as I am with Montreal. And so I'll go with the two from Pennsylvania. But I could easily see Montreal being one of the teams that falls out, too.

B (46:42)

All right, let me. Let me reframe this debate if I can. Which of these teams would. Would it be detrimental for them to make the playoffs because none of these teams are winning the Stanley Cup. Right. I'm sitting out here, you know, I'm in the Western Conference. I'm seeing Connor Bedard play MVP hockey. I'm seeing Macklin Celebrini play MVP hockey. I'm seeing Leo Carlson play MVP hockey. I'm the guy who has railed against Tanking forever. Now, I destroyed Kyle Davidson when he started the tank in 2022 at the draft in Montreal, and I've been steady about that, and I'm starting to look really wrong. So let me ask which of these teams does itself a disservice? Look, everyone wants to make the playoffs. You make more money, the fans are happy. But in the bigger picture, which fluky team, for lack of a better word, screws itself by making the playoffs this year?

D (47:24)

It's Pittsburgh number one. Then it's easy. Okay, I just, here's the thing. Like, I get it. Like, Pittsburgh, with the core they have up top, you try to maximize as much as you can. But like, if you put yourself in a position where you could pass the torch along to a high level prospect, a Gavin McKenna, like player, if you put yourself in that position, if you're Pittsburgh, like you're preparing that succession plan. Montreal, I don't think they hurt themselves that bad by making the playoffs. Their prospect pool is already as stocked as it is. And I think just with, with some of the younger players that they do have in Suzuki and Caulfield, who already have that playoff experience, like you're trying to build off of what you have, I think it's less so for them, maybe more so for, for a Pittsburgh. Philly and Boston could fight for second place, but I think number one with a bullet is it's Pittsburgh.

C (48:11)

So the reason I disagree is because I think if, if this team's good enough to make the playoffs and they, like, I keep going back to the Washington, if they're Washington, if they're good, if the Penguins are actually good and they have Sidney Crosby and Evgeny Malkin, they can win playoff series, that team can win play. Like, because if they get to the playoffs, they've proven they're a good team. At that point, right now, we don't fully believe it, but if we're in March, May and April and they're still a good team, nobody wants to play Sidney Crosby in the playoffs. Like, with a good team like that dude can win playoff series, can he win the Cup? I don't know, but maybe.

B (48:43)

Whereas, I'd love to see it, right?

C (48:44)

Whereas, like, right, we'd all love to see it. But like, whereas, like the Flyers, I don't think they can win the Cup. Like, the Philadelphia Flyers aren't winning the Stanley Cup. So to me, Pittsburgh, yes, I agree, getting Gavin McKenna would be great. But when it, like a chance to win another cup for Sidney Crosby, when I think there is a small percentage chance that it actually could happen to me, I don't think Pittsburgh's the Answer here.

D (49:07)

I would just feel so much more sure if like the times we've seen this court in the playoffs, I mean, not to say this core in the playoffs. I should say just in the last few years, this. Even when they've been in the playoffs, they haven't gotten out of the first round. You have to go back what, at least like, what, 2019, 2018? No, even earlier. Yeah. 2018, I think is the last time they won around in the playoffs. It's not as if, like the Pittsburgh Penguins are just having this moment where, all right, like, like remember Tampa Bay a couple years ago, they had all these different injuries and they weren't able to make the playoffs. They end up back in the playoffs and that's a team that eventually goes on to win Stanley Cups. Like, Pittsburgh is not in that mode right now. Like, like I. Like, yes, it's Sidney Crosby and of getting Malkin and Chris Latang. Like, everyone should be scared of them, but like, I don't know, depending on who they play in that first round, like, if they get Tampa Bay in the first round, I think Tampa Bay beats them. Right.

C (49:57)

Well, like, to me, Tampa's the best team in the east, so I agree with you there. Right.

D (50:01)

But my whole point is, is that I don't think Pittsburgh's going to put themselves in a position where they're like top two or three in their division where they give themselves a more favorable matchup. If they sneak in and get into the playoffs, they might get beat by a really good team at the top of that conference.

A (50:14)

The one thing about making the playoffs for Pittsburgh is that it might actually help them keep Sidney Crosby. That's the one, like, caveat to this. But I think it's both Pennsylvania teams that need the top pick. Let's go to the teams that want to displace these teams, though, because like we said, everybody is still in this here pretty much. You could argue the Sabres, they're five points out right now, but that's not that much in the big picture. So the bubble teams on the outside looking in right now are the Islanders, the Senators, the Red Wings, the Rangers, the Blue Jackets, the Panthers, the Maple Leafs and the Sabres. I think we're all going to be unanimous here and that we very much expect the Florida Panthers as they get Matthew Tkachuk back, to climb this list. The next team after that, though, Julian, for me is the Ottawa Centers. This is a team that before the year, one of my bold predictions was that they make the final four in the east, that that's feeling a little ambitious to me now. But I'm still not thinking it's crazy because I do look at a team that has Tim Stutza, that has Brady Kachuk, that has Jake Sanderson, who continues to get better and better and if Linus all Mark can write the ship, which is a big if right now. I get it, but we've seen it from before. If Linus all Mark can write the ship. The Senators are the team that I think knocks out in addition to Florida, one of the teams that are in it right now.

D (51:20)

I think if you put the Sunday result where Ottawa loses big to Dallas and Lena Salmark just tough night at the office for him. Tough nights for. Tough night at the office for everybody. But leading up to that point four one and one has lost six starts, 914 save percentage. I think he had some good performances during this road trip and I think for this Ottawa Senators team, in order for them to make the playoffs, they need him to play well but they also need their number two to play well in Levy. Mary Linen, who I think in his last five games he's 3 and 2. I think he's also gotten a little bit better. He had a really terrible first game against the Buffalo Sabres. They need him to play well because as of right now, Lina Sol Mark is trending towards playing at least 62 games. That's what he's projected to play, which he's never played more than 49 in a season. And as Jesse could attest to like the best goaltenders in the league. Yes, you have your elite guys who could play the 60, 65, but typically you want your goaltenders to be playing between 50, 55, maybe just below 60 games this season. You cannot afford for Linus Hallmark to over tire himself. So you need Levy Maralainen to be your solid number two. And I think he has been in his last few games. But you get the goaltending on the right track back, you give yourself a chance. The penalty kill, I know it has not been great for this team going forward. I think they've had a better November than October. Again, you're going to have to put that, that, that Dallas result aside because Wayne Wyatt Johnson on his own, I think through the power play was able to kind of displace the sentence. But I just think with some of the little things that they've been able to put together and get better at, that's going to keep them afloat as a playoff team. Tim Sutzler I think when Brady Tkachuk was was hurt. I think he played really solidly in that top line role. Drake Bathurst deserves a lot of credit as well. Up and down with the centers that they have. I think they have really good center depth and the fact that they're going to get pretty good check back playing on that wing. I think obviously we know how much of a game breaker he can be. I think they have the pieces to return to the playoffs again. It's just that goaltending question for me. They just have to get out of this early season blues that they've set for themselves. Like Lena Salmark did it last year where he was arguably the best goaltender in December last year. There's reason to believe he could do it again.

A (53:27)

Yep. At one point I think I would have said the Rangers have a very good chance to be in that mix. They're obviously in a tough spot right now with Adam Fox going on ltir. This is an interesting one last because I'm at the point now where I think it's a toss up of who I think has a better chance between the Rangers and the Islanders.

B (53:43)

You know that that was the team I was going to bring up was the Islanders. I just feel like, like you look at them, if you look at the roster side by side, you're going to lean towards the Rangers. But if you watch them actually play, the Islanders have a vibe about them. Right. There's every year there's a team that just kind of has that vibe about them where it's like, you know, they're doing something special. And it all traces back to Matthew Schaefer on the back end. He's just fundamentally, fundamentally altered the DNA of that entire franchise. Really. It's like the anti Lou lamarello team now. They're all fun and gun Bo Horvat is crushing it. There's a lot to like about that team all of a sudden. And you know, they've got Ilya Sorokin in now. You know, when you got Shusturkin on the other side in the city with the Rangers. I understand that argument, but I kind of like the Islanders more than the Rangers are. The Rangers are just. They're dour and they're. They're so bad at home and none of this makes any sense. Like I just. It's hard to put any stock on what the Rangers are doing right now. They just, they don't look like a playoff team ever to me. They just don't.

C (54:36)

I see those two teams as very similar in that if you don't, if you take two of the best goalies in the world, Sorokin and Shusturkin. And honestly the backups, big save, Dave, Dave Riddick and Jonathan Quick have been out of their minds lately. So you take those four goalies and put like league average goalies on those two teams and they're both horrific. Like, I think the Rangers and Islanders are the worst team in the NHL with average goaltending. They're being propped up by amazing goalies. Now I think the Islanders have a little more juice like you said, they've, they've got some more scoring power. The Rangers, it feels like it takes a miracle for them to play put the puck in the net. Like I watch tons of Rangers games because I love watching Igor Shusterkin and I tote. Like, I don't know if there's a more frustrating team to watch. Maybe the Buffalo Sabers. If you're a Sabres fan. Other than the Sabers, I think the Rangers might be the most frustrating team to root for because they just can't generate anything offensively and the goalies are standing on their heads no matter which guy it is that night. Quicker. Shusterkin, Sorokin and Riddick have been awesome. I, I agree with you. I, I tend to lean more to. Towards the Islanders in terms of a chance to get it together, but I'm honestly not all that high on either of them. I think they're, they're subpar teams that are being propped up by the goalies.

A (55:48)

Does anybody want to jump on the stump for any of the Red Wings, Blue Jackets, Maple Leafs or Sabres here?

B (55:55)

I just want to say about the Panthers, like when we, when we, when we just assume the Panthers. No, absolutely.

D (56:02)

Absolutely not.

B (56:03)

But I feel like, I feel like we gloss over the Panthers and people, I don't want people to think that we're saying that, that just because they're the two time defending champions. They're playing really good. Like they're playing good hockey right now. I think they're, I think only Colorado and Carolina have a higher scoring chance edge than they do. They are. The puck's going to start going in and they're going to start winning a bunch of games and they're fine. I just don't want people thinking that we're just, you know, oh, the Florida Panthers, they must make it because they're chips. No, they're playing well without arguably their two best players. I think that, I think you need to mention that, that this. We're not just assuming them. We're. We're seeing something with them.

A (56:35)

I'M also just assuming them.

D (56:37)

No. Yeah, I'm with Max here. I think they've earned the benefit of the doubt at this point, and I get that they've played a lot of hockey over the last three years at this point. For me with this group, I expect them to play well enough to get into the playoffs, and then even if they enter as a lower seed, they could likely be the favorite in any series that they've played. They've played. We know what to expect from this group group when the games really matter. Like I'm. I'm okay with assuming that they can make it. If they don't make it, then, well, that's on us. But like, it's also on them too.

A (57:08)

A good note from our producer, Chris Our friends at BETMGM have the senators minus 175 to make the playoffs. Slightly better odds in the Canadiens minus 165. So if you're looking for one place that Vegas potentially sees it flipping, that's a good one to look. Let's take a quick break right there. We're going to come back, we're going to talk about Julian's book.

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All right, we are back. And Julian, one of the reasons we wanted to have you on today is of course, that you have a book coming out in February, February 3rd, I.e. black AC is essential stories From Hockey's Black Trailblazers. Let's just start here. Like, what inspired you to write this one and what were some of the big things you learned on it?

D (59:17)

The I've always wanted to write a book since I was a little kid. I thought the idea of writing a book was just this really cool idea. This really cool just. I'm pretty sure everyone who at some point wants to be in journalism or in writing has wanted to do something like that. And then in 2023, actually I got to to write a story about Bill Peters, the former NHL coach who ultimately was forced to leave his position from the Calgary Flames after reports of an incident surfaced between him and Akeem Aliu in the American Hockey League in which he unfortunately used racial slurs toward him. I had written a column about Bill Peters getting an opportunity to coach a Western Hockey League team, and I thought the parameters of him getting that opportunity were a little bit, a little bit weird. And what was really, what was a big sticking point for me in that story was the fact that he had gone through another coach to try to curry an apology to Akeem. And my column, essentially, was about that. And an agent approached me after the fact and said, hey, it'd be cool if, if, if you were interested in writing a book, it would be cool to do it. Obviously, I was just trying to think of different ideas. And while I think there have been books where writers have profiled certain black players in hockey, I think we're at a point now where there's been, there's been a great deal of them throughout the history of the game that are worth profiling, that are worth telling stories over. And not just players that we just know immediately in the NHL, but even people like Adante Abercrombie, who is set to lead a hockey program at Tennessee State University, the first to do so for an hbcu. I hope through this project that there are some obvious names like a Willie O'Ree, obviously you're going to read about, or a Grant fear or Jerome McGinla, who was kind enough to provide the forward. But it'd be cool for people to read about Blake Bolden, who we now see on on Amazon broadcast and ESPN and was a scout for the Los Angeles Kings. But telling her story was. Was really cool. As someone who aspired to play for Team USA one day at the Olympics, or Kelsey Kohsler, who is the first black player, male or female, to ever be drafted first overall in a North American hockey draft, it was really cool to. I learned a lot of stories, such as Kelsey's or such as Blake's and what she was trying to do, and even just telling stories of players like Angela James. I like the fact that I was able to get female players in this, too, and it wasn't just male players being honored in this. Yeah, I'm really happy about the process for this book. I'm really happy about the fact that we're almost at the finish line and it'll get published and people get to read it. And, yeah, I'm really excited for people to read it.

B (62:04)

I have a very important question. When you call up Anson Carter, does he answer the phone? Ace here.

D (62:11)

You know what's funny? Initially, I'll tell you this. Initially, when I interviewed Anson, the nickname thing did not come up. Up at all. But as I was, like, putting the final touches on the book, there were people who were reaching out, being like, hey, you know, you kind of have to. You have to ask him about the Ace thing. Right? And I did try to get like. Like a. I tried to get some kind of explanation from. From Anson, and TNT essentially reached out. And I'll just say the explanation was not as. It's not this crazy story with Ace. But I also understand. I understand why the nickname came to be. It's just like a simple thing. But at least that's. That's how they define it, right? Like, maybe there was something else. Maybe there's another story.

B (62:56)

But still, that was Mario Lemieux's nickname, too. Nobody called him Super Mario on the team. They all called him Ace. I think there's a fair amount of Ace.

D (63:04)

I heard about that. Yeah, I heard about that. Like, Ace, like, Super Mario is a much cooler nickname for Mario.

B (63:11)

You're not going to call your buddy, hey, Super Mario. How are you? Super Mario?

A (63:15)

I'm open.

B (63:16)

Yeah.

D (63:17)

But as Shane Doane said to me for this book, like, hockey nicknames are stupid. Like, hockey players are awful. They're awful. Like, no, of course no one is going to call Burial the View Super Mario. They'll call them like Mario or just something basic like Ace doesn't. I don't get the correlation with Ace. For him, it's a cool name. Ace. I have a different answer.

B (63:38)

I did want to Ask. You know, you mentioned that, you know, you wanted to spotlight some other names and you know, it's funny, we do a. Well, we used to do a shadow committee for the hall of Fame voting every year where Eric Duhatchik, who's been in that room, would kind of lead us through the process and we would try to advocate for players and builders to get in. And a few years ago we, we, we put up Herb Carnegie and it's almost embarrassing, but I think the majority of the hockey writers in that slack channel did not know exactly who Herb Carnegie was. He's in the hall of Fame. You have a chapter on him. Tell us a little bit about Herb Carnegie.

D (64:09)

I think of all the chapters I wrote, that chapter was the one in my head I needed to get right. Like writing a chapter on Jerome McGinlow, like that's one of my favorite players growing up. PK Suban, same deal. Like there's a lot of emotion you put in those chapters. But like Herb Carnegie, the fact that he, there's like, even if he didn't make it to the NHL, the fact that you could say that he was arguably the best black player to never make it to the NHL, the fact that, that he played on an all black line playing semi pro which had never been heard of beyond the Colored Hockey League of the Maritimes and fun fact that line was called the Black Aces. Like that there's so many elements of that chapter that needed, I needed this to go well. But also just learning about his story and for people who want to learn more about him, you should also read his memoir A Fly in a Pail of Milk that he and his daughter Bernice co wrote. I think it's very much worth your time and to get it. Yes, absolutely. One story to me about Herb that's always going to stick in my head is when he was a lot younger and he played on a local team in Toronto. They had a practice at the Maple Leaf Gardens. And that day, it just so happens there were members of the Toronto Maple Leaf staff there, including Con Smythe, who I believe was the GM and team president and might have even been owner at the time too. And the legend says that as he was watching Herb Carnegie play, he was, he had told one of his coaches who then relayed that message to Herb, that if someone on the Leafs or if someone could find a way to turn Herb Carnegie white, they would put them on the Leafs tomorrow or they'd pay them a whole bunch of money, which is like a very brutal story. And on YouTube. You can find Herb Carnegie being interviewed about that with Elliot Friedman in, like, 2008. And Elliot is talking to Herb about it. And Herb is, like, visibly upset that this is still something that's just gonna follow him forever. And he's, like, openly, like, crying and bawling and his daughter is going to console him. Like, hearing stories like that, to me, even if it was decades ago, like, we're not that far off from. From that being a thing. And I just thought it was just so heartbreaking and to have to tell that story in the context of the book. I mean, obviously it's not something you feel great about, but I think those are still essential stories that people need to read and understand when it comes to knowing about the history of black people in the sport of hockey. So, yeah, I felt of all the chapters like that one, I just felt my mentality. I needed to get that one right. And I hope people feel the same when they read it.

A (66:51)

I did a story with Dan Robson a couple years back about the mental toll of fighting in the game of hockey. And even though it's evolved, I think that's still in there for the guys who do it pretty often. And it was really shaped by the quotes Dan got from George the Rock. And I know that's a guy you talked to for this story. Super thoughtful, I think a fascinating person. What did you learn from him in the reporting for this book?

D (67:13)

For George, the fact that. What I find super interesting is that he's a guy, especially when I talk to him for the book, he's a guy that's not. He doesn't like fighting as much as you would think for a guy fought as much as he did or was as associated with the code. Remember the code and fighting. Yep. That's not someone who.

B (67:33)

He's.

D (67:34)

In one hand, he's like, yeah, like, I. I had to fight because I had to do it. It wasn't something I took pleasure in. But then when you look at how people remember him, like, I think of, like, Sarah Nurse saying, like, yeah, like, one of the first characters I got to play, I think whenever I would play EA Sports, NHL games, was George the Rock because of the fact that he could fight, like during one of the cup finals in the last few years, where obviously the Edmonton Oilers are in it. Like, George the Rock releases this line with Death Row with these short. With these shirts of him fighting. Like, that is such a massive part of who he is as a person. One of my favorite things about George Larocque, one of My favorite NHL moments, which is, like, the way his chapter starts. I'm sure you guys remember it when he was with the. The Coyotes. They might have still been in Phoenix at the time. And he's mic'd up, and he's about to fight right to Ivanins of the Los Angeles Kings. And you just hear him just be like, all right, you want to go, all right, we'll do it. And then they just start fighting, and it's like, one of the most, like, epic fights you've ever seen. Like, usually we think of a fight as like, all right, I'm mad at you. I'm mad at you. Like, rah, rah, rah, we're gonna fight. But George was just like, all right, you want to do this? All right, we're gonna do it. And then just crap. Like, that's such a huge part of who he is is. And it's a very much a focal point of that chapter. But as you read it, there's, like, another moment that I really want to focus on with George because of the way that just the excitement he had in talking about this particular, specific moment that I focus on in the book. Like, for me, I was just like, this is just gonna be awesome, because everyone's gonna see George Larocque written in the book, and they're gonna be like, well, yeah, you're gonna talk about fighting. And, yeah, we definitely do talk about fighting. But I think when you. You read the chapter more and you see what's focused on a little bit more, you'll be like, oh, holy crap. I had no idea he did this.

C (69:12)

What a tease. What a tease. All right, absolutely. Julian, I wanted to go back to something you said about just, like, you personally insane. Like, people who go into journalism maybe dream about writing a book. You dreamed about writing a book since you were a kid? I write every day. I write long stories. I write 5,000 word stories, and I have it. Writing a book seems so daunting to me. So my question to you is, like, how different is that process? And maybe, maybe, like, how much more did you enjoy the process? How different was it, and how much more did you enjoy it compared to what we're all doing every day, which is writing words. But it's obviously different when it's part of a bigger thing. Do you see each chapter as a story? Like, I guess. Just how did you approach it, and how different was it?

D (69:55)

I think the fact that Black Aces, to me, is, like, such a passion project that definitely played into the love hate relationship where There's a lot more love. But when you're trying to write stories in the middle of you moving halfway across the country from Calgary to Ottawa, like, that's not easy to do. And you're getting yourself settled in on a new beat and you're getting used to everyone in Ottawa, but you're also spending time like, like writing 2,000 words at a time about Grant Fear, for example. Like, there's definitely been some moments where I'm just like, ah, this process is like very time consuming and, and draining. But I don't know, I, I feel like for writing stories at the Athletic, where I find a lot of the time, obviously you're, you're, you're trying to follow the team. And it also depends on the nature of your beats too, right? Like, depending on which teams you cover and, and the market size you have, like, it might even depend on the frequency. Whereas for Black Aces, I definitely felt more pressure, not to say I definitely feel pressure in the job I have now, which I love at the Athletic, but I feel like for a book, like hardcover copies, man, like you get that on a bookshelf that lasts forever. That lasts forever. If I want to save a story off the Athletic, like I got to save the PDF and you send people links. Like my grandmother, God bless her, like, does not have a subscription to the New York Times. But whenever my articles get published in the New York Times, like I try to give her a copy so that way she could just have it, she could read those stories. I don't have to worry about like sending her copies of like a chapter from a book. I could give her the whole damn book. Like, I, I can't wait to do that. But also just, I think just the fact that writing a book is such a legacy thing for me and is a legacy thing. I think for a lot of people who do it, I, I definitely, I definitely put a lot of pressure on myself to get this right. But it was also really fun to do and I don't know if I'll do it again, but like, I really enjoyed getting, getting that opportunity to, to put a project like this together.

B (71:55)

I feel that I always say, like, I love having written a book. I did not necessarily love writing the book itself like I did in mid season when I did mine. I know exactly what you're talking about. But once you do see, when you see it on, you know, you still, you poke your head into a bookstore, you go to an Indigo or you go to a Barnes and Noble and you see it there, you're going to be so proud, and it's going to be a really, really cool moment.

D (72:14)

I can't wait until, like, I walk into a bookstore with somebody and maybe they have no idea. And then I could just be like, hey, that's me.

B (72:24)

What I always do, I always make it so that mine's on display. I always grab mine and make it into a better display. And with someone else's book, I tuck.

D (72:31)

It in, dude, I'm going to do that. I'm going to be insufferable. The first month of this book being out, I'm going to be insufferable. Guys. When I get, like, my. My copies of this book, like, I'm going to be promoting this everywhere. I'm going to start doing tiktoks promoting this thing. Like, I. I'm so proud of what I've been able to do, and I really can't wait for people to. To read it and to do it on black hockey players, right? And to have, like, Jerome McGinla provide the forward for it. Like, I remember when, like, I was talking about it with my agent with this project, and I was trying to think of all these different people I wanted in the book. I remember approaching Jerome about it before, like, some practice. And in my head, I thought, well, if Dro McGinla is not going to do this project, there's no point in doing this. If he says, like, nah, I don't have time for you, but. And like, to this day, I've never been more nervous approaching anybody for anything in my life. Like, even talking to him, I was like, yeah, so, yeah, do you want to get interviewed for this book? And he was like, yes. And even when he said yes, I'm like, really? You want to do this? Like, I was so surprised. But, like, Jerome was the best with his time, and I really appreciate. Great. I really appreciate Jerome giving me his time for it. And also one other thing that was really cool about it. I know I'm rambling, but talking to other people about the. The subjects I focused on, like, that was also really cool. Like, getting to talk to Sidney Crosby for five minutes about Jerome and how he loved him as a player growing up. And, like, going to Calgary to play in the Max Bell youth tournament and then getting to watch him in a Flames game that night. Like, hearing stories like that from all these different people about some of the different subjects I focused on for the book, like, that was super cool, too, to know how much of an impact these players have had on some of our favorite NHL players and personalities.

A (74:15)

Yeah. Well we are thrilled to be the first stop on the publicity tour. Again, the book is Black Aces Essential stories from hockey's black Trailblazers. It is due out February 3, 2026. You can buy it@triumphbooks.com and again, some of the names it features Jerome McGinla, Grant Fiore, Sarah Nurse, P.K. suban, Anson Carter, George the Rock, among others. Someone in your life wants this book. Make sure they get it. That is going to do it for us. Thanks for listening to this episode of the Athletic Hockey Show. Remember, you can subscribe on YouTube@YouTube.com heathletic hockey show to watch full episodes and everybody's favorite Sean, your second favorite Sean and your favorite Frankie will have you covered on Wednesday. We'll talk to you soon.

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