The Athletic Hockey Show – March 16, 2026

Episode Theme: Who’s the NHL’s Luckiest Team?

Hosts: Max Boltman & Jesse Granger
Featured Guest: Sean McIndu

Episode Overview

The main theme of this episode centers on determining the "luckiest" team in the NHL this season. Hosts Max Boltman and Jesse Granger explore which factors contribute to “luck” in team performance, referencing advanced stats (PDO), divisional disparities, and individual player and front office advantages. They also welcome Sean McIndu for a deep dive into the Toronto Maple Leafs' injury struggles, their “unluckiness,” and what the future may hold for the troubled franchise. The episode wraps with discussion of Jesse’s NHL goalie tandem rankings, including analysis of this year's goaltending surprises and underperformers.

Key Segments & Insights

1. Luckiest Teams in the NHL (02:40–15:11)

Pacific Division Woes

• Vegas Golden Knights highlighted as this season’s luckiest team, largely due to the weakness of their division:
  • "I don't think we've ever had a division winner since they went to four divisions. A division winner under 100 points and the Pacific winner might not get to 90 points." — Jesse Granger (03:24)
• Vegas’ mediocrity masked by division:
  • 31 wins, 76 points, 14 from OT losses.
  • “They keep losing and yet I check around the league and so did every other team in the Pacific. So it doesn't matter how many times they lose, they never drop in the standings.” —Jesse Granger (03:24)
  • Despite a strong roster, struggles with pace and aging core noted.

Team-Building and Market Luck

• Vegas’s unique market advantages: “Every single player that's not happy with his team…come on down.” (05:30)
• Aggressive front office gets credit for seizing market and division perks—other teams with similar perks don’t capitalize as well.

Playoff Skepticism

• Results against playoff teams: Only 2 wins in 17 recent games vs. playoff-positioned teams.
  • "When they've played good teams, they have not looked like a good team." — Jesse Granger (07:00)
  • Playoff flip-the-switch theory debated: “The switch doesn't flip on April 16. The switch has to flip sometime in the month of March.” — Max Boltman (07:32)

Other “lucky” and “unlucky” teams considered:

• Detroit & Pittsburgh: Start as contenders for “luckiest,” but both hit by injuries and negative momentum.
• Boston Bruins: Outperforming expected metrics; Jeremy Swayman’s goaltending called the “luck” factor.
  • Discussion of PDO (shooting % + save%) and how top teams (Colorado, Dallas, Tampa) also lead in PDO and aren't just “lucky.” (10:55)
• Seattle Kraken: Borderline playoff team with unimpressive roster but high PDO—likely due for a letdown.
• San Jose Sharks: Labeled lucky for winning Macklin Celebrini in the draft—a "generational" talent carrying the team.
  • Celebrini’s impact: “94 points. The next highest player on the Sharks has 45. That’s Will Smith with 45. Less than half the number of points that Macklin Celebrini has. He is unbelievable.” — Jesse Granger (12:42)
  • Overtime wins and reliance on “coin flip” points noted as another lucky break (14:42).

2. Toronto Maple Leafs: A Study in Unluckiness (18:25–38:03)

Matthews’ Injury & Suspension Fallout

• Discussion led by Sean McIndu analyzing the Radko Gudas hit on Auston Matthews and Maple Leafs’ ongoing issues with luck, response, and the Department of Player Safety.
  • "Dirty, ugly hit and honestly, whether the suspension is five games or eight games or 10 games, it doesn't really impact the Toronto Maple Leafs because they're without their most important player now for the rest of the season." —Sean McIndu (19:16)
• Fan and analyst frustration with the expected “response” from Leafs’ players: “This should have been four guys on one guy immediately...tells you how fundamentally broken this team is on the level of what it even means to be a team.” —Sean McIndu (21:36)

The Fork in the Road: Leafs’ Future

• Team facing yet another “fork in the road” moment; discussion of possible strategies: retool, rebuild, or stand pat.
• Big moves are unlikely due to a front office that habitually chooses “the path of least resistance.” —Sean McIndu (26:33)
• Rebuild hamstrung by lack of first-round picks: “To tear it on down...you’re going to finish in last place and you’re not going to have a pick at the end of the rainbow to look forward to.” —Sean McIndu (26:33)
• Matthews’ contract and health scenario central to franchise future; club’s lack of options means yet another “wait and see” (30:38)
• “This team has been at a fork in the road for years now and they always choose the same path. Which is the path of least resistance, what's easiest...” —Sean McIndu (26:33)
• “The easy way is to sit back and you wait and then maybe you get a phone call from Auston Matthews this summer or next summer saying, you know what, I want to be a Florida Panther....then you try to trade him for 25 cents on the dollar.” —Sean McIndu (33:28)
• Management’s unwillingness or inability to make hard decisions critiqued; calls for boldness.

3. NHL Goalie Tandem Rankings Breakdown (40:18–end)

Toronto’s Goalie Outlook

• Leafs’ tandem of Joseph Woll and Anthony Stolarz ranked 28th—team could consider moving Stolarz to clear cap and recoup assets, with prospect Hildeby as a potential internal replacement (40:46).
• “If you're looking for somewhere to clear some cap space and possibly get something in return. I think one of those goalies is probably a good way to do it.” —Jesse Granger (41:06)

Top Goalie Tandems

• New York Islanders (Ilya Sorokin): Sorokin called the likely Vezina winner; “He’s so good. He’s the only reason the Islanders aren’t one of the worst teams in the league.” —Jesse Granger (44:10)

  • Sorokin’s high-danger save % is “bananas”: .879, league average is .813.

• Buffalo Sabres: Surprising top-5 ranking, Alex Lyon praised for newfound stability and consistency.

  • “He looks phenomenal. And when you watch the film, the numbers are good, and the film backs it up.” —Jesse Granger (45:00)
  • Both Lyon and UPL give Sabres fans hope for the playoffs.

Notable Quotes/Moments

• On Alex Lyon: “He’s the kind of guy who, I think, when his playing days are done, can do anything. He can work in hockey, he can work in tv. He’s just an incredibly bright guy, very driven guy, and I’m very happy for him." —Max Boltman (47:23)

Tampa Bay’s Dilemma

• Lightning’s reliance on Vasilevskiy knocks their overall tandem down a few spots despite elite starter: “They basically do league minimum salary and we'll just put whoever we can there because we're going to play Vasilevsky 65 games. I think if they gave him a better [backup]... you could keep him fresher for the playoffs.” —Jesse Granger (49:21)

Florida’s Goalie Situation

• Future of 38-year-old Sergei Bobrovsky: “We don't need to play him the fourth most of any goalie in the entire NHL. What are we doing? Especially when Daniel Tarasov is above league average in just about every stat.” —Jesse Granger (52:43)
• Preference for a one-year extension for Bobrovsky, transition to Daniel Tarasov as future #1.

Open-Ended: Goalie Tandem with Most to Gain?

• Calgary Flames: Dustin Wolf and Devin Cooley have the most ground to gain next season. If Wolf returns to rookie form, tandem could leap up rankings.

  "I could see Calgary's got a lot to fix, but I could see them saying, wow, we are set in net and they are one of the top five top 10 goalie tandems in the NHL for the long foreseeable future." —Jesse Granger (56:07)

Notable Quotes

• “They keep losing and yet I check around the league and so did every other team in the Pacific. So it doesn't matter how many times they lose, they never drop in the standings.” —Jesse Granger (03:24)
• "Dirty, ugly hit and honestly, whether the suspension is five games or eight games or 10 games, it doesn't really impact the Toronto Maple Leafs because they're without their most important player now for the rest of the season.” —Sean McIndu (19:16)
• “This should have been four guys on one guy immediately...tells you how fundamentally broken this team is.” —Sean McIndu (21:36)
• "He has a really hard time staying healthy. Denn Hildeby has come up and I've loved what I've seen from him just in the limited time. He is gigantic. He moves so fluidly...If I was the Maple Leafs...I would be comfortable with the tandem of Hildeby and Wall going forward." —Jesse Granger (41:06)
• “Sorokin is finally going to get his deserved Vezina. And the numbers for Sorokin this year are Absolutely. Just ridiculous.” —Jesse Granger (42:28)

Key Timestamps

• Pacific Division, Vegas discussion: 03:24–08:23
• PDO and luck metrics explained: 08:56–10:55
• San Jose’s miraculous season/Celebrini: 12:04–14:42
• Toronto Maple Leafs’ turmoil: 18:25–38:03
• Goalie Tandem Rankings intro: 40:18
• Leafs’ goalie analysis: 40:18–42:16
• Vezina/frontrunners & Sorokin: 42:17–44:10
• Buffalo tandem surprise: 45:00–47:23
• Tampa Bay and backup goalie issue: 49:21–51:28
• Florida’s future in net: 52:03–55:22
• Most to gain — Calgary tandem: 55:41–57:20

Episode Tone

Conversational, frank, and analytical, with plenty of candid criticism (especially toward the Leafs). The discussions are detailed but accessible, peppered with advanced stat explanations and real-world comparisons. There is a clear balance of stat-based arguments and “eye test” observations.

For Listeners

This episode is a must-listen for fans following the league’s power balance, the Leafs’ ongoing spiral, and those interested in how analytical stats shape discussions around luck, team-building, and playoff futures. The goalie tandem ranking segment is essential for understanding goaltending dynamics as the playoffs approach.