Will Jacob Fowler start for the Habs in the playoffs?

Summary

The Athletic Hockey Show – March 12, 2026

Episode Theme: Will Jacob Fowler start for the Habs in the playoffs?

Hosts: Haley Salvian & Dom Luszczyszyn
Not present: Sean Gentille (off sick)

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Main Theme Overview

This episode centers on two hot topics in the hockey world:

1. The dramatic emergence of Jacob Fowler as the Montreal Canadiens’ starting goaltender and his playoff implications.
2. In-depth, real-time analysis of playoff races, trade impacts (notably the John Carlson trade), and reviewing some season predictions.

The show mixes detailed performance breakdowns, lively debates about goaltending, team direction, playoff brackets, and a humorous roast of the hosts' preseason awards predictions, all underscored by the athletic’s signature blend of analysis and friendly banter.

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Key Segment Breakdown

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1. Jacob Fowler’s Breakout Performance (00:26–06:02)

• Context: Fowler called up from AHL and outperformed expectations in a critical game versus the Ottawa Senators.

• St. Louis’ Vote of Confidence: Canadiens coach Martin St. Louis prioritizes results, stating, “I think this is the best decision for the game tonight.”

  • Fowler’s Stats: 32 saves vs. Ottawa, including 6 in the final 2 minutes.
  • “Huge, huge night for Jacob Fowler in Montreal.” – Haley (01:38)

• Dom’s Analysis:

  • Questions past decisions to send Fowler down.
  • “This is going to be his net going forward. He’s probably going to be Montreal’s starter of the future. This might be his time to just take the reins.” (03:30)
  • Contrasts Fowler’s hot hand with Montembeault’s recent struggles (4.28 GAA in last 2 starts).

• Implications:

  • The move is strategic, given the 3-goalie rotation’s drawbacks.
  • “You just got to give the net to Fowler at this point. He’s been that good.” – Dom (05:18)

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2. Playoff Prospects for the Canadiens (06:02–07:50)

• Is Goalie the Playoff Differentiator?

  • The East is wide open behind Tampa and Carolina.
  • “That [playoff] could be the difference in a series against Tampa Bay, where if he [Fowler] can just match Vasilevskiy...they could do it.” – Dom (07:31)

• Team Weaknesses Noted:

  • Montreal’s middle six and defensive depth remain concerns.

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3. Around the League – Capitals & Carlson Trade (07:50–13:23)

• Flyers Beat Capitals; Playoff Hopes Fade

  • John Carlson’s move to Anaheim framed as the final playoff blow for the Caps.
  • “It felt like a vibes-destroying trade.” – Dom (08:55)

• Team-Building Perspective:

  • Washington preps for the future with younger talent, accepts a temporary “vibe” loss.

• Anaheim’s Motivation:

  • Ducks pursue Carlson for blue line experience.
  • “I do love it for Anaheim, though...they’re building toward...a lot of offensive firepower.” – Dom (12:53)

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4. News Bites: Nick Schmaltz Extension & Sens’ Draft Penalty Modified (13:23–19:37)

• Nick Schmaltz Signs in Utah:

  • 8-year, $8M AAV extension: “It is perfectly fair. Right on the money.” – Dom (14:55)

• Sens’ Forfeited Pick Amended:

  • Now pick 32nd rather than completely forfeiting first-rounder over Dadonov trade error.
  • “I just don’t think the punishment fits the crime. Just fine them.” – Dom (18:10)

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5. Awards Prediction Post-Mortem (19:39–29:18)

Hilarious, humbling review of their own season-long picks:

• Hart Trophy:

  • Favorite now is Nathan MacKinnon. No one picked him.
  • “All of us other than you [Dom]...were like, ‘let’s think of something crazy.’” – Haley (21:24)

• Calder:

  • Now obviously Matthew Schafer, but hosts missed it.
  • “He wasn’t talked about as a franchise-changing player in this way.” – Dom (25:14)

• Norris:

  • Picks (Makar, Hughes, Dahlin): All defensible; race remains open.

• Vezina:

  • Likely Sorokin or Vasilevskiy; panel all missed this.
  • “That’s goalies for you. That’s not our fault. Goalies are weird.” – Dom (28:18)

• Selkie:

  • Picks included Reinhart, Hischier, Cirelli. Suzuki is current favorite.

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6. How Chaotic Has the Season Been? (29:18–36:56)

• Unpredictability Story:

  • Major deviations from pre-season models, betting lines, and fan predictions.
  • “If you just said, ‘I don’t know, flip a coin,’ you are better than everyone.” – Dom (31:16)
  • Underdog teams' unexpected playoff pushes.

• Biggest Surprises:

  • Ducks leading the Pacific (“like me winning a race against 5-year-olds.” – Dom, 32:30)
  • Sabres atop the Atlantic
  • Penguins & Islanders outperforming expectations

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7. Penguins, Coaching Changes, and Accidental Success (36:56–38:25)

• Analyzing Pittsburgh’s "Accidental" Return to Relevance:
  • Many pickups (Manta, Brazeau, etc.) were expected to be trade assets.
  • “They turned into integral pieces of this return...best case scenario to see one last dance with this core.” – Dom (35:29)
  • Dan Muse, rookie coach, gets special praise for special teams results.

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8. Cup Watch: Playoff Odds, Pathways, and Pressure Points (39:06–51:03)

Tiers and Chances Discussion:

• Penguins:

  • 0–2% Cup odds: “Happy to be there” group.

• Sabres:

  • Despite hot streak, underlying numbers make Dom’s model skeptical.
  • “Their eight-game win streak...my model is not really buying it as true contender status.” – Haley (43:44)

• Blue Jackets and Senators as "Dark Horses":

  • Better underlying metrics, goalie upside influence playoff upsets.

• Contenders:

  • Tampa Bay (33% Cup odds) leads the way – largely due to Vasilevskiy and favorable playoff bracket.
  • Colorado (22%) strong, but a tougher playoff path.
  • “The path to get there is so much easier for the Lightning.” – Dom (50:33)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On three-goalie dilemmas:

  • “This is part of the drawback with a three-goalie system that a lot of teams are going towards...just give the net to Fowler at this point.” – Dom (05:18)

• On season unpredictability:

  • “If you just said, ‘I don’t know, flip a coin,’ you are better than everyone. Which is, I think, a testament to how wild and unpredictable the season’s been, which is part of the fun.” – Dom (31:14)

• On Anaheim’s ascension:

  • “That’s like me winning a race against 5-year-olds. Like, it’s the Pacific.” – Dom (32:30)

• On Sean’s absence and the show’s vibe:

  • "He really wanted to be a part of bestie hour, and we told him to hit the curb. We were like, just get lost. It’s Dom and I today." – Haley (00:42)

• On predictions gone wrong:

  • "It’s humbling to go back and look at our predictions. It’s like a funny little thing to do..." – Haley (29:18)

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Important Timestamps

• Jacob Fowler’s case as Habs' #1 – 00:26–06:02
• Implications for Canadiens’ playoff hopes – 06:02–07:50
• Caps' struggles & Carlson trade debate – 07:50–13:23
• News bites (Schmaltz extension, Sens’ draft pick) – 13:23–19:37
• Roasting awards predictions – 19:39–29:18
• Season unpredictability discussion – 29:18–36:56
• Penguins and coaching turnaround – 36:56–38:25
• Cup Watch Playoff Odds – 39:06–51:03

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Format & Tone

• The episode blends stats-driven analysis with playfulness and friendly self-deprecation.
• Listeners get detailed context and reasoning behind lineup changes, trade strategies, and statistical modeling—alongside an honest, often humorous acknowledgment of what can’t be predicted in hockey.

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Ideal For

• Hockey fans following the playoff race, goaltending controversies, bold trade outcomes, or just seeking to understand how models (and experts) struggle with the NHL’s volatility.

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Summary by The Athletic Hockey Show’s standards:
Informative, candid, and engaging—this episode is a classic mix of topical news, strategic discussion, and character-driven commentary that makes you feel in the loop, even if you missed it live.

Transcript

[A]

Foreign. This is the athletic hockey show.

[B]

What's up, everyone? Welcome to another episode of the Athletic Hockey Show. It's Haley Salvian and Dom Luce Chishen here with you for a Thursday edition of the show. It was supposed to be a special besties hour edition of the podcast. Sean was trying to be a hero. He is not feeling well, and he was like, I'll just do the show and won't say that much. And he really wanted to be a part of the bestie hour, and we told him to hit the curb. We were like, just get lost. It's Dom and I today. How do you feel about this?

[A]

I feel okay. I think we're strong advocates for if you're sticks, if you're sick, stay home.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

And that applies to even at home work. If Sean's voice makes him sound like Kermit the Frog.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

Maybe he shouldn't do a podcast. We try to get him to do ASMR with his.

[B]

You did.

[A]

You did Raggly voice. I did. And I think that's when he abruptly left.

[B]

Yeah. Yeah. He was like, that's my side business. You can't. You can't tell. Everyone's going to know it's me if I start doing this on the podcast. So, yeah, no Sean Gentile today. It's Dom and I. For this Thursday, there was only two games in the NHL last night. Montreal Canadiens, Ottawa Senators, Caps, Flyers. We want to zero in on habs sends from last night, though. Sends are in a battle to stay in the eastern playoff race. Goaltender Jacob Fowler completely steals the show in Montreal, so he was called up on Wednesday from the American Hockey League and Canadiens head coach Martin St. Louis, essentially giving this young goalie the vote of confidence over Sam Monte. He said yesterday, if you look at where we are today, the results are important, and I think this is the best decision for. For the game tonight. That's Martin St. Louis on the decision to recall and start Jacob Fowler last night. Huge save on Claude Drew at the end of that game. 32 saves, six in the final two minutes. Just a huge, huge night for Jacob Fowler in Montreal. Dom, what did you think of this?

[A]

I thought it was the right choice. I was a bit surprised that he was sent down earlier in the year because he. I think when he was there, was probably the best goalie that Montreal had, and maybe it was the right decision because the extra seasoning in NHL made him phenomenal last night. The last five minutes, he was just on fire. He got the win for the Habs for the year. He saved 4.2 goals above expected in just 11 games. Montembeau has let in 3.7 and 25. So I still have some respect and reverence for Monte Bow because he's been so good for the last three or four years for Montreal. And it is a bit disappointing that now when they need him to be great, he's turned into a bit of a pumpkin. But that is goalies for you with three decent options. If one of them is not going the way Montbo isn't and you got to ride the hot hand and his confidence is where it is. Go with the guy who has been the best for you, and that's been Fowler. This is going to be his net going forward. He's probably going to be Montreal starter of the future. This might be his time to just take the reins because even Jacob Jobish hasn't been great this year. He's been kind of average. He's been fine, whatever. If Fowler can be what he showed to be last night, it's a game changer for for Montreal.

[B]

And like the decision to play Fowler seems relatively easy just based on how poorly Monte Bow has played since the Olympic break. Arpan Basu did a nice story today if you want to read that on the Athletic or Montreal Canadiens reporter. In two starts since the Olympic break, Monte Bow had a 4, 3 overtime loss to the New York Islanders and a 65 shootout loss to the Anaheim Ducks. He allowed a tying goal in the dying minutes of regulation and one of those, and then allowed nine goals on 59 shots and 8.47save percentage of 4.28 goals against average. So just a tough stretch when you've got like a young goalie who can win you points, even steal you points. If we go back and look at that Clojuru goal. Actually, funny enough, they didn't include that as a save because the Staticians. Statician. Oh my God, I just started to say your last name. The NHL officials deemed that the shot was going wide, so that huge glove stop or the huge pad save on CLO Giroud didn't even count officially as a save for Jacob Fowler. So he's getting the Canadiens points. It doesn't mean that Monte Bow is never going to come back or never going to start again or find his game. But this just feels like the right choice for the Montreal Canadiens right now.

[A]

Yeah, I. I definitely agree. I It's hard when you have three goalies and this is part of the drawback with a three goalie system that a lot of teams are going towards. But I don't just. You just got to give the net to foul at this point. He's been that good this year compared to everyone else. Montebo, we had him within our top 12 goalies in the player two years this year, and everyone we talked to was a little down on him. And I think the private data was a bit harsher on him compared to what we have publicly. And this is, this might be why we're kind of seeing his downfall. I think he can bounce back and maybe be a 1V still. But this is, this is Fowler's net, I think from now on.

[B]

Does the starting goalie in Montreal matter all that much when we're thinking about the playoffs and where they could go? Like we're going to go over your cup race story in more detail at. In the aftermath of the trade deadline in the next segment, but we can maybe skip ahead a little bit bigger picture for the Montreal Canadiens. Like, is this a team that is really going to make a push based on who's in that regardless, Dom, or are they still just kind of in with the rest of the league?

[A]

It's. It's tough because the east outside of, I think Tampa and Carolina is pretty mid and Montreal's part of that group. And part of it is because goaltending is a bit of an Achilles heel right now with how Montebo and Dobash have played this year. But even with that, like, the middle of the roster, I think still has a Michael Hage size hole, and when he comes in, they'll be a contender. But for now, that middle six is pretty dire. I. I'm not in love with the defensive depth, mainly the third pair. They have flaws just like every other east team I think they can win around. But once they, they get to Tampa Bay, I think that's where there's going to be trouble. And if Fowler can steal games like he showed he can last night, I think that could be a difference maker because the playoffs we've seen goalies steal games and series, we've seen this very team show that ability with Halak and Price in the past. If Fowler is cut from the same cloth that they're developing, developing him the same way, that could, that could be the difference in a series against Stamp Bay where if he can just match Vasilevsky, oh, sure, hey, they could do it.

[B]

The Montreal Canadiens, their third in the Atlantic, by the way, 82 points in the season, they've won three straight. And when I say, are they in with the rest of the league? I should say this is how the tiers are kind of broken up in the Cup. Watch story. We've got the contenders, the dark horses, the rest of the field. And right now on Dom's rankings, the Montreal Canadiens are looking like they're in the rest of the field. But that was of course before Jacob Fowler got called up. We'll see if that young goalie could make some waves for the Habs once the postseason comes. The only other game last night it was the Philadelphia Flyers against the Washington Capitals. Flyers score for unanswered goals. They beat the Caps. Caps have now lost four of their past five games. Does that just kind of verify the reason? Like I know it was shocking for Alex Ovechkin and we talked about this in the John Carlson trade to Anaheim made a lot of sense for the Ducks specifically. But if this is the way that the cup the Cap season is going to continue, it probably makes sense that they were grabbing some assets for a guy like John Carlson. How do you feel about that, Dom?

[A]

It felt like a Vibes destroying trade. If you had as many Capitals fans in your mentions as I did last year, all they would talk about is the power of friendship and how it was propelling their season last year and even the year before that. Carlson seemed to be a big part of that. We saw how it affected Ovechkin, we saw it affected Tom Wilson. The Vibes need a huge monumental shift. They might get it when Cole Hudson arrives and I think that's a big reason why they made the prudent decision to trade Carlson. They have probably someone they think can replace Carlson internally and they can get a first and I think a third for him back. It just sucks for now and it's probably the final nail in the coffin for their playoff odds. They're down to 14% right now. But yeah, it's been a strange season. Washington where they seem like a good team, especially a 5 and 5. Their such teams have been awful and they seem to lose a lot of one goal games and win a lot of two or three or four goal games. So weird season. It makes sense from a team building perspective to move on from Carlson given what's coming up. But for now it's probably the reason they, they might be out of it.

[B]

Yeah. Would you have held on to him for the Vibes and for the future? Because John Carlson's still like a meaningful piece.

[A]

It's. It's so tricky and I, I wish our other friend Sean Gentili was here to speak about.

[B]

This is where he would just randomly be like I want to trade it out.

[A]

No, I don't think. I'm not sure he would have the one. This is why Sean Open, an expert on this subject. He's been around the Caps a lot over the last year and he is from Pittsburgh. So he has seen firsthand how Crosby, Malkin, Latang were treated by that organization. It felt like Carlson was on that same level for Washington, that he was a franchise legend. You saw him retiring with the Capitals and being there from start to finish that it felt odd the way it came down where he woke up to being traded. It said it felt like there wasn't the type of respect you would expect for someone of his stature. Where I think there's a report yesterday as well that Anaheim just kept pushing and pushing and upping the offer until logging said all right, fine, here you go. And I. It was, it was a good trade, I think, but I don't like was it even a good trade like they got as much as the Blues did for Justin Falk and I think Carlson's way better than that. So I guess there's term on Falk's deal. I guess that makes sense. It's just. Yeah, it's, it's a tough way for that era to end.

[B]

Yeah, it was definitely a surprising trade. He makes a ton of sense for the Ducks. Pat Verbeek had a one on one with Mike Sizeberger at NHL.com talking about Carlson's fit with the team and it looks like he. So he was telling the Caps that the Ducks were looking to shore up their defense and the Caps maybe brought up John Carlson themselves. Like Verbeek told NHL.com yesterday that the Caps asked if we would be interested in John Carlson and he was like, yes, because of course he did. And he's close to returning from a lower body injury. He could make his Ducks debut against the Toronto Maple Leafs tonight on Thursday night. But a more realistic target, again according to NHL.com is the game against the Sens on Saturday or against Montreal on Sunday. So we still haven't seen John Carlson and Anaheim, but if that's true and the Caps were just like do you want John Carlson? That makes it a little bit more like, huh, what happened here? Why are you guys doing this?

[A]

Right? And did they ask anyone else? I was there a bidding more for Carlson's services. I, I don't know it. I, I do love it for Anaheim though. I think it might have been nice to get like a defensive stopper shutdown guy because that's what this team needs. But We've seen teams go shy away from their strengths and it seems like with Carlson they're building toward the like we have a lot of offensive firepower on the come up. Why not get someone who can move the puck and have that second layer attack behind Jackson Lacombe's pair.

[B]

Okay, really quickly before we take a break, we want to get to the cup watch. And also this would have been more fun with Sean. Now we're just sitting here being like, wow, I wish we made Sean sit here quietly and only chime in every few minutes. We're going to revisit our awards predictions that we did, the three of us, the beginning of the season. They're horrendous. They're so bad. So we can just dump on all of Sean's picks and celebrate our tiny wins if there are any. But very quickly before we head to that break, Nick Schmaltz signed an eight year contract extension with the Utah Mammoth yesterday with an average annual value of $8 million. So another potential free agent off the board this summer. Schmaltz said there was never a doubt that Utah's worth. He wanted to play the rest of his career. Very happy to sign an eight year extension in Utah. He's 30 years old right now, 59 points in 65 games. Like he's, he was like my favorite fantasy player last year. Just like a random dude. I was like, yeah, he's good for a couple points here. I haven't set my fantasy lineup in weeks. I know this season even tracking that. Are we playing against each other or something?

[A]

No, I just see you at the bottom of the standings and figure that's. That's usually what happens.

[B]

I'm over it. It's too much for me. I'm not over my heartbreak of losing in the football championship game. But anyways, Nick Schmaltz 8 times 8 Dom, you like this deal for for him in the Mammoth?

[A]

I think it is perfectly fair. Like it is right on the money. I had I think 7.9 or something. This is so classic where win, win for both sides. I think Utah gets a bit lower on the AV just so that they can have Schmaltz for eight years and I think the term was a big thing for him. That's probably the sticking point for a lot of people. Last three years of this deal will not be good, but the first five should be great. And that is the UFA experience and

[B]

you can just deal with that in five years. Like I maybe that's goofy and like maybe I'd be a terrible GM because then, like, you know, I would just end up five years down the road being like, where's all my money? I have no cap space. I've overpaid everybody on my roster. But I'm like, whatever, it's a problem for five years from now. I'll deal with it.

[A]

Then they'll be on the cap. On the cap is 150 million like it is. Like they're gonna be teams that need to reach the floor that could really use nick schmaltz at 8 million exactly.

[B]

Hit the can down the road. It's fine. All right, let's take a break. When we come back, our putrid awards predictions. That's coming up next on the Athletic Hockey Show. All right. We are back on the Athletic Hockey Show. It is Haley and Dom. No, Sean. No, Sean has the man flu. Just a little bit of news that just came out as we were taking a break. This is from Chris Johnson. The NHL, I believe, sent out a press release as well. The league has modified the penalty against the Ottawa Senators for the invalidated of getting dadnov trade. Remember that one from a couple years ago? The Sens are now going to pick 32nd in the upcoming draft regardless of where they finish, rather than forfeiting their 2026 first round pick entirely. And all this news did was like, remind me that the league actually made the sense forfeit a first round pick because of all that. Was he like traded to Anaheim? Wasn't that the thing? And he's like, no, this was on my no trade list that you did not disclose. And then the sens lost a first round pick entirely. Now you get to pick 32nd. That's really nice. That's great news.

[A]

They. They're gonna. They might miss the playoffs. And their consolation is picking 32nd. Like it is not at all. It's better than not at all. But the fact they had to forfeit a first round pick for such an inconsequential move, like it's a. It's a Datanov trade. I think that Vegas wasn't allowed to do something else because of it. Vegas is the league's pet. Obviously. They get all this preferential treatment. They get to put Mark Stone on ltir forever. Whatever. It's fine. League's villain keeps winning. Senators get got shafted by this. And this is a nice step in the right direction. And it's good that they get a pick at all. But what were we doing here in the first place to have them forfeit a first round for a Like, obviously it's a massive mistake. I just don't think the punishment fits the crime. Like, just find them. Just give them a large fine. That's fine.

[B]

Yeah. And correct me if I'm wrong, I should have looked this up before we started recording. That was kind of the end of the Pierre Dorian era in Ottawa, right? That was a Dorian mistake. So that's the end of that. They bring in, you know, usher in this new era, I guess, but I don't know. Like, that's a clerical error. I don't think Dorian like was trying to pull one over on anyone. They just like agreed to a trade without checking and then they lose a first round pick. I don't know. Not great. I just pulled up Corey Promens. This was in 2022. Like, this was so long ago, it's ridiculous. Corey Promenade had his prospect rankings out yesterday. If we scroll all the way down to tier four, the middle of the lineup player, that is where we will find the 32nd overall prospect in the 2026 draft. So congratulations to the sens. If you missed the playoffs, you can maybe draft William Hackerson or Ryan Rubrick.

[A]

Great names. That's all I know about them.

[B]

I don't know. That's tough. I struggle to find that to be good news. I guess it's nice that they get a pick now. So we've promised it. This is not great for us, Dom. So at the beginning of the season, you, Sean and I, we made some awards predictions and they were, they were bad. They were, they were quite bad. So this is what we're going to do. We are going to look at who the current favorite is for these major awards and then we'll see what we all predicted. It's going to be a really fun exercise. It's not going to delegitimize us as they'll be humble analysts at all. Yeah, like, it's fun. We're. We're being fun and cool. Let's start. Let's start with the heart. Let's just go right for it. Who's the favorite to win the heart this season, dom?

[A]

Probably Nathan McKinnon. He has been the best five on five player this year. He's outscoring teams and then Leo Rate. He has the points production that can get him there. He's getting Selkie consideration according to Wynsky's latest awards watch. So he's been a dominant force on the league's best team. So I, I think it's him. Show us what we have.

[B]

Okay. Okay. McDavid Caprizov, Kov.

[A]

Okay, those are our three.

[B]

Dom, you at least picked Connor McDavid. I went with Kirill Caprizov. And Sean picked Nikita Kudrov. And I think we all acknowledged like, oops, Nobody took Nathan McKinnon in the moment. But I think we were just trying to be like, let's be unique. All of us other than you.

[A]

All of us.

[B]

Or Sean and I were like, let's think of something crazy. Was I the one?

[A]

Well, it's a, I think there's, it's a four person race. Right. At least among forwards. You might get a D in there. You might get stroken in there.

[B]

Capriof anywhere in the conversation.

[A]

No, probably not. Kucherov definitely is. He has some Gretzky like numbers over the last two or three months. So he's, he's there. He has, he, he could win it himself. To some people, he might be the favorite. I still take McKinnon. Two of us are, are okay. One of us are bad. That's okay because the next one probably isn't great either.

[B]

Oh, it's very bad. Okay. Calder. Favorite. It's clearly Matthew Schaefer. Right. Like, obviously we should have seen this coming.

[A]

Obviously. Let's, let's see who we picked.

[B]

Okay, so Sean did okay. Like Dimitov. He scored for the Habs last night. Good job, Sean. I picked Zev Boyam. I had obviously like just read a bunch of Mike Russo propaganda before that episode. And then you picked Renzel.

[A]

Yep. Yes. Let's, let's go through our thought process here because I think we both have the same one. We thought that these two guys would run their power plays and get a bunch of points. And I think we both thought that Matthew Schaefer was not a lock to make the Islanders because we did this relatively early in the off season. I think if we knew Shape was making the team, one of us was taking Schaefer. But it still, I think, shows how unprecedentedly great he's been as an 18 year old. Like, yeah, 18 year old defensemen usually suck. There's a reason they don't make the team. This is a hard league for defensemen. Schaer makes it look easy every night and that's why he's getting the, the capital G word treatment some nights where he, he looks like a generational defenseman.

[B]

Yeah. Yeah. And I think at, at that point there was nothing. Everything was very non committal of like he's just going to en. Ride a training camp. And the Islanders didn't look like they were Going to be great this season. So there was this question of, like, do you just let him marinate in a different league rather than force him into a team that might be bad? He's not really going to have opportunities to like, score, play his game. And that just hasn't been the case. So just really, really dumb. Really dumb by us. Someone should have just been like, whatever, I'm taking. Schaefer would have been smarter.

[A]

I blame would have been smarter Corey Promen and Scott Wheeler for not hyping this guy up more. I didn't know he had this in him at all. I don't pay attention to the prospects at all. On draft night. I'll read some profiles from our boys.

[B]

Well, we all loved him after the draft night. The stuff with his mom and his suit. Every interview with Matthew Schaefer, it's like, oh my God, I love this kid. And then a couple months later, he's. People are asking, should he be on Team Canada? And very obviously the Calder favorite.

[A]

So I just. He wasn't talked about as like a franchise changing player in this way. And I think his comparison was Nero Heiskinen, which is probably fair given the type of game he plays and his, his skating and his defending and the whole package. And I don't want to throw my friends under the bus here. Like, Schaefer didn't play a lot last year. He didn't get a lot of viewings, and he is probably blossomed into a level that few could have seen coming. It's just, I think I'm just trying to give us some cover for why we didn't pick him. He. He didn't have the hype that. No, he's displaying.

[B]

Miro Haskin is great. Didn't win the Calder.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

So the Norris isn't that bad. Norris isn't that bad. I picked Quinn Hughes. You picked Makar. Sean picked Rasmus Dahleen. That's not terrible.

[A]

That. That is perfectly defensible.

[B]

We think the car is going to win this year.

[A]

I think Makar is probably still the favorite, but it is become razor thin. And I think this is like the deepest field of Norris contenders we've ever seen. Like, yeah, like, if I just rattle off the list of players in the top, like defense, in the top 15, there's eight of them. Makar, Hudson, Cider, Bouchard, Sanderson, Dorinsky, Hughes. Like, if you pick any of those guys, there's a strong case to be made and I think that'll make some people angry or like, how do you have this guy. Favor. There should be this guy. Like they're all really close and this will be I think the most, the biggest vibe pick in terms of who you. It's like you're just taking whoever your favorite is. And I don't, I, I, I really don't think there's a wrong answer. There's a lot of, There's a big push for Orensky who we don't have.

[B]

I think we talked about him as someone we didn't vote for, though we did acknowledge that that could have been a mistake.

[A]

Yeah. I think the darling pick is coming around. He obviously started the season up slow for very obvious reasons like his, his council was not doing well health wise. Since he came back from Sweden, he has been maybe one of the best defense in the world. He's been that good for the Sabers. He's the one of the biggest reasons they've maintained this special pace going forward. And especially over the last month or two, he's been on fire and put himself it back into this conversation.

[B]

Yeah. And also should mention Quinn Hughes since being traded to the Minnesota Wild. 41 points in 33 games.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

Like I think that killed my boo and pick and that's not my fault. Who would have thought that Quinn Hughes would get traded to the Minnesota Wild? Not me.

[A]

Not me.

[B]

We can skip the Selkie and go to the Vesna because this, I don't know if it's. Who's the favorite for the Vesta right now. This is me being like, I don't want to say. This isn't terrible. It's not bad.

[A]

Could I come down to Sorokin or Vasilevsky? This one's voted by the gm. It's voted by the gms. And they could look at how Sorokin is carrying the Islanders or they could say Vasilevsky has a lot of wins. Like they might do that. Great. I, I think Sorokin has been on another level this year entirely. I would, I would give it to him, but who knows how the GMs vote.

[B]

So we didn't pick either of those two.

[A]

Okay.

[B]

We went with Shusturkin. Sean went Hella Buck. I went Jake Ottinger.

[A]

Those. That's goalies for you. That's not our fault. Goalies are, Goalies are weird.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

Imagine taking Hella Buck and that being one of the worst picks of the group. Like he just, it's just so funny.

[B]

Except he was so good at the Olympics. That really pissed me off. Like I thought he was supposed to turn into A pumpkin.

[A]

He did the opposite of his usual thing where he was clutch when it mattered and has been normal otherwise. Pretty. Pretty good bit pretty good bit very rude.

[B]

Selkie. We did pick Reinhardt. He sure and Anthony Cirelli which is fine.

[A]

The favor is probably Suzuki. This has been a fun year. It's been a chaotic year. I don't think like, especially if you look at the teams not to segue for you, but if you look at the teams and the standings right now, no one in their right mind at the start of the season be like, yeah, I think that's how it'll shake out, shake down.

[B]

And I think that's the fun transition point. Yes. It's kind of, it's humbling to go back and look at our predictions. It's like a funny little thing to do on a day on the podcast when there was only two games the night before. But I think it really does speak to how bad like everyone was at predicting this season. It's been a little bit chaotic and we can touch on some of this with the trade deadline aftermath. Looking at the cup favorites and if we like compared that to the preseason team previews and like the rankings, you know, like trying to make beliefs they were they were going to be good this year. Pittsburgh Penguins, I think you guys had them bottom two or three. I don't think anyone predicted the Buffalo Sabres would be leading the Atlantic Division. Like, there's been a lot of chaos this season. Like, just how unpredictable has this season been for like prognosticators?

[A]

Dom this is how bad it's been. I, I touched on this in 16 stats last week where usually the odds makers are a strong barometer for what's going to happen this year. If you bet against every favorite to miss the playoffs and every underdog to make the playoffs, usually you're going to lose money. That's just the way it goes. You can't just bet the underdog for every pick. If you did that this year, you would have made a fortune. That's how unlikely a lot of these playoff teams are. That's how unlikely a lot of these misses are. To the point that if you were to take every prediction made this year. So that's my model. Other models, the betting market. J. Fresh runs a fan prediction contest every year. So he has thousands of submissions of standing predictions. The average error for points. So if I guess 95 and a team got 90, that's five points of error and you average that out for all 32 teams. The best prediction at the start of the year would have been, I think every team's gonna get 91 points. That's how chaotic it's been. Where. Yeah, if you just said, I don't know, flip a coin, you are better than everyone. Which is, I think, a testament to how wild and unpredictable the season's been, which is part of the fun. I think this is what makes hockey great, is we are seeing a season where literally any team can win and we're seeing the playoffs make out that way, where the east has four to six teams that didn't make it last year. Something along those lines. And mm, it's gonna be fun.

[B]

Is there one team that shocked you the most in terms of the projection and where they're at

[A]

that is.

[B]

Is it the Ducks leading the Pacific?

[A]

Well, leading to Pacific is kind of like, what?

[B]

You don't think that matters?

[A]

That's like me winning a race against 5 year olds. Like, it's the Pacific. It is surprising that Vegas and Edmonton have been bad enough that like Anaheim is leading. I think people did see Anaheim taking a step. I think a lot of the chaos is in the east, where Pittsburgh and the Islanders, I think are two teams that people did not expect to do anything this year. Boston as well. Buffalo. I was one of the most optimistic people about them and I had them like 90 points just because, like the market had like 80 points to start the year and they might win the Atlantic. That's just the way it is. It might.

[B]

It.

[A]

To me, it's kind of surprising that Florida, Toronto, they played such an epic playoff series last year. In the second round, they look like contending teams. Like, they look like warriors and they just have limped all year and just not made in. Florida has an excuse. They didn't have Barov. They didn't have Kachuk. They had a lot of injuries. They've played a lot of hockey the last three years. The Leafs clock struck midnight on a team that was winning a lot of one goal games and depending on goaltending. So it's not too surprising about the direction some of these teams went. It's just the, the, the sheer magnitude of it. Rangers too. Like, I, I thought Sullivan was a great coach. I thought it was a great hire. I thought they'd be fine. A lot of other people did too. They're the worst team, the East. It just, it's fun. It's a fun season.

[B]

I think the Pittsburgh Penguins are one of the ones that like, you guys had them in the preseason as the second or third worst team, I think.

[A]

Third, yeah.

[B]

By the projections. Sean was on local radio in Pittsburgh talking about how they're going to be horrendous this season and they're playing like, good, relevant hockey.

[A]

Emphasis on good. Yeah.

[B]

And like, they. They're doing it. And like, Eric Carlson's been great. Chris Latang has looked better. I'm trying to. The Justin Brazo, like, starts the season looking unbelievable. Besides, Anthony Manta is playing great. They've got young players who are making, you know, a meaningful impact on the roster. And it's almost funny to have the conversation of the Penguins and Leafs beside each other when we know who's the architect of this Pittsburgh Penguin season. Kyle Dubas may be girl boss. Too close to the sun. I thought they were going to gun for, like, a retool, and now they're accidentally good. I don't think it's an accident, though. I think Kyle Dubas is a good general manager. I was like, let's get some, like, good, cheap options. Some good young players will use our assets correctly. And, ooh, the Penguins are relevant again.

[A]

Yeah. Part of our reasoning for the Penguins being bad is they. We thought they would trade a lot of players, Raquel, Rust, Carlson, even. And they obviously didn't do that because they were so good right off the bat. And you talk about dubious girl bossing a bit too close to sun. I think a lot of these acquisitions were made for the. The reason to trade them for assets for this retool. Like I think they said, looked at Mantha and said, we think it can be a solid top six player for us. We can probably get a second round pick at the deadline for him as we boost his value. Maybe same with Brazo. And instead they turn into integral pieces of this return, which, like, I think is the best case scenario to see one last dance with this core. Because I. That's what I've been wanting for the last three years. And they kept coming up short of expectations. This year, they had no expectations. And maybe that helps a little bit where they come in thinking, okay, everyone thinks we suck. Let's prove them wrong. And they have. And Dan Muse deserves so much credit for all of this because I remember when the Penguins hired him, I said, who dat? And I think a lot of people also said that. Not me, not you.

[B]

I'd interviewed him before and was like, I like that Dan Muse.

[A]

Oh, look at that. You. You. You should have tweeted something because I,

[B]

I like that Dan Muse fellow. That's my tweet.

[A]

Look at him now. I think one of the. The Strong barometers for whether a coach is good is you look at the special teams and see how good they are. And Penguins have been really strong in both power play and heli kill despite a personnel group that maybe shouldn't be getting those kinds of results. It's been. It's been amazing to witness. I really want to see another Crosby playoff run. Whether that's a series, whether that's three. We all want to see it. I. I can't wait.

[B]

Ben Kendall's been great, too.

[A]

Just another name, another best w 11th

[B]

overall pick by the Penguins in 2025. He's been great. I think watching the Penguins, it the one of the more surprising things and maybe it shouldn't be just based on the results over the last couple of years. Just watching them under Dan Muse, like, damn, this looks really bad on Mike Sullivan. Just the way that they were playing the last two years. Just like, I guess maybe it was. Maybe they should have moved on a little bit sooner. No one's going to. I think it's fine that they stuck with their guy as long as they did. But now you're looking at a new coach and a new playing style and a new voice, and you're like, oof. Oh, this is making a big difference.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

So Pittsburgh Penguins, they've been a big story this season. Toronto Maple Leafs Penguins, flip flopping a little bit. Let's throw in a break here. When we come back, we will go through the Cup. Watch. That's coming up next on the Athletic Cocktail Show. All right, we are back. One final thing, I guess on the Pittsburgh Penguins, I should have asked, where are they at on the cup contender watch list from Dom Lucia. And like, we're saying all this nice stuff about the Pittsburgh Penguins. Are they a realistic playoff contender in your mind, Dom?

[A]

Like, probably not. This is such a weird season that, like, usually my model gives deference to teams with a track record. And so a lot of those teams show up at the top of the list. And they show pretty emphatically because the field feels so much more random with a lot of middling teams that I'd expect the Lightning, the Hurricanes, the Avalanche to have a much easier time in the first round and maybe even the second round for those east teams where I think Lightning and Hurricanes are like, head and shoulders above the rest of the East. So that middle group, they have a very winnable first round. They can have a successful season. Pittsburgh, if they play the Islanders, they can probably. They can win that series. Hurricanes are probably a very different story. And we Saw a bit of that play out earlier this week where they had a very spirited comeback against Frederick Anderson, who's been kind of weak this year. But it was the Hurricanes controlling that game from, from start to finish. So I don't think they're a contender. I think there's a lot of teams that maybe qualify in the happy to be their category, and I, I'm happy they're there, but I don't know if they can make a lot of noise given how strong the. The top two teams in the east are.

[B]

So they're in like the rest, which means they have a 0 to 2% chance at winning the Stanley Cup. It makes sense based on, you know, everything we've just talked about. Like, that's fine. I'm not shocked. I'm not appalled by the Penguins being lower down. Although, like, that probably means they're gonna make it to the Eastern Conference final or something. The way that things have been going, what is a little bit more surprising, especially considering Sean Gentilly, McIndu and Frankie Corrado spent so much time gassing up the Buffalo Sabers, who had an incredible win against the Tampa Bay Lightning earlier this week. The Buffalo Sabers are in the same tier as the Pittsburgh Penguins wins 0 to 2% chance at making the playoffs. There's so much to love about the Buffalo Sabers this season that I was surprised I had to scroll so far down. Dom, why are you hating on the Sabers? Why are you doing this to us?

[A]

Do you remember the show we talked about awards where I was gassing up the savers so much because I thought, like, I was one of the more optimistic people about them. A lot of the models were. They have a. They had a very young team. They had a lot of bad luck in past years, past decades, whatever. They looked like they could be a team on the rise that can finally figure it out once everyone gave up on them. And they have absolutely done that, obviously they barely lose anymore. It's great to see every day they win. They don't move up that much in my model. It's because unfortunately, the way they're winning is not the way maybe the Lightning or the Avalanche win, where they control the run of play. Since December, early December, when they started this run, they have a 49xG rate and the highest PDO in the league. And I think they're a great finishing team. I think they have the forward depth and talents to be one of the top finishers in the league and make hey with that. That's their strength. That's their advantage. But what surprised me is that a lot of this winning streak is because they have the best goaltending in the league. And when the tandem is Alex Lyon and Ugopek Lucanin, I'm not as inspired by that tandem to believe that aspect of it is real. And you look at it like that game against Tampa Bay is a perfect example where Lukanin gives up seven and yes, the Sabres scored eight Heroic. I don't care as much because Jonas Johansen was on the other side and he stinks. Like that's a different game with Vasilevsky and that where maybe it's like 74. And I think the seven part is the worrying side for me where I think the Sabers have the firepower to hang with anyone in the East. Maybe not the top end. They don't have a Kucherov like the Lightning Jew and that's my biggest fear. But they I think defensively still have a bit of work to do as a young team.

[B]

I mean they have a Pretty good goal differential plus 35. But is your model basically like you? The model is looking at their eight game win streak. Them being at the top of the division is a bit of like, I don't want to say smoke and mirrors, but it's not really buying it as true contender status.

[A]

It's buying them as a good team. They're a good team. I think I'm pro. I'm definitely underselling them in some way. There's a part of this where teams have like a swagger or about them where they know they can win and they do what's needed to win. And I think Buffalo this year is figuring out the exact necessary thing to do to win. Where there are a lot of games like during this streak where their XG isn't that good. There's a lot of games where they have put the team away early like in the first year, the second period where they might still lead and it's just a bunch of garbage time. They're allowing chances which is fine. But I think when the playoffs come around they. I'll. I'll. I think they'll win the first round. I think Tampa will be a welcome to the playoffs moment where they see just how high the level has to go. I personally hope the Sabers go all the way because it's awesome. I, I just have a bit more caution based on how they're getting wins during the streak where everything's going right. They've spent a lot of time where everything has Gone wrong. So why not.

[B]

But why are so this is where I start to like attack you and your model. It's not personal. Why are the Columbus Blue Jackets and Ottawa Senators dark horses in the east but the Sabers and the Penguins are not?

[A]

So the Blue Jackets.

[B]

It's fishy to be Dom. It's a little fishy to me. The Sens aren't even in a playoff spot.

[A]

We all know I'm paid by big Sens and big Blue Jackets. The the two drivers of the NHL. The Blue Jackets have been a bit of a model pet this year. Like even before they got bonus behind the bench. Like I think they're last in the east and my model will still give him like a 30 chance to make the playoffs because the underlying team still felt solid. They have a great defense backed by Zaparenski. But the big thing was Jet Grieves who over the last two years has saved more goals than expected per game than any goalie in the league. Any goalie. Hello. Sokin, Vasilevsky, Shisterkin. Jet Greaves might be the future and I don't think like I so that is the main reason that my model loves Columbus a bit more is that during the playoffs Jack Reeves should should because they they do start Elvis a lot. Jack Reeves should get the bulk of the starts and that gives Columbus a bit more series stealing potential. The other thing is that Columbus is in a much weaker part of the bracket. Like if Columbus gets the Islanders in round one, the Sabers get Montreal. I think the Sabers are closer to 5050 there. Columbus I think would be a considerable favorite over the Islanders because the Islanders don't control play very well. And then I think Tam Bay is way stronger than Carolina where the path has a lot to do with it for Columbus. Ottawa has been the best possession team since the new year. So that is their strength is start the season. They were a good team getting completely sunk by goaltending. Since Omar has come back they've been a lot better because he just has to be average. That's all he has to be because of how well they create chances and especially suppress chance. I think defensively they're one of the best teams in the league and we talk about defense winning championships. The Sens defense when healthy is really good.

[B]

Yeah, Jake Sanderson's great, but all Mark wasn't very good last night against the Habs. No, no, he wasn't something to keep an eye on. We'll see if that turns into another problem. Okay. I want to get to the contenders really quickly like the true contenders. And I guess I just have two questions. Why is Tampa such a heavy favorite and why is Colorado not the favorite especially when and I should say Tampa bay has a 33% chance to win the Stanley Cup. The Colorado avalanche are at 22%. And that's despite you saying that Nazima Kadri was the biggest needle mover at the deadline added to a team that already includes Kale Makar and Nathan McKinnon. So why is Tampa so far ahead? The pack. And like a pack that includes a team like the ABs who have lost what, 10 games in regulation this season? Explain yourself.

[A]

You're right, it does deserve explanation. I think it is something that I have looked at every day wondering how I have temp day this high. So like all the concepts I just talked about are relevant here. So we have track records where Tampa and Colorado I think have been the best two teams or the last two years probably. I think not just this year. Past seasons matter and Tampa having one of the best goal differentials in the league last year matters a bit to this discussion. The big thing for Tampa Bay is the same thing that applies to Columbus, which is the bracket and goaltending. So Vasilevsky starting every game is a massive advantage for a team that is deep at every position, has so much star power because usually you'll see these great teams have to make sacrifices somewhere along lines and usually it's a net. So Edmonton, their Achilles heel is always goaltending. Vegas after Achilles heel. Carolina, same thing. Tampa doesn't have that problem. They have one of the best goalies in the world. So when he's starting every night they have a better chance to win compared to Colorado where Blackwood is is a great goalie. He's just not Basileski. So they that makes them a bit more even in terms of their projected playoff strength. Where in a playoff series I, I do have lightning ahead just because of Basilevsky. The other reason is that Colorado, they'll have a cupcake first round matchup just like the Lightning will. But the second round they have to face Dallas or Minnesota, which is going to be a gauntlet. It's going to be a difficult series. It's a series Colorado is heavily favored in, but not to the extent that Tampa Bay would be against like any team in the East. So that second round matchup that should be a lot easier. Tampa, where they might have like an 80% chance against anyone in the Atlantic that plays the I think the biggest role where if they both make the finals It'll be closer to a coin flip. And I'd probably lean Tampa Bay just because of goaltending, but the path to get there is so much easier for the lightning, so that's the big reason.

[B]

Okay. So it's kind of a credit to the strength of the Central and just how chaotic and kind of Mid the East has been this season. All right. Fun. Thanks, Dom. That's it. I think we're done.

[A]

What a great show.

[B]

Yeah. Wow.

[A]

We did. We didn't need Sean.

[B]

Who needs Shonda Tilly? Not us. I hope he feels better, though, I guess, because I don't want to have to do this again next week.

[A]

I wish you could pop in for five minutes just so, like, viewers for. Who are here for the whole thing to just hear his, like, raspy voice. Yeah, like, imagine if he did the asmr. Now. That'd be a great callback. And we'll never get that.

[B]

Yeah, we should get him to do. Send an audio drop in for producer Jeff. Just throw that in there for. For everyone to know what we're talking about. No, it was ridiculous. He was like, no, I'll still do the show. I'll just, you know, nod for the video and chime in every once in a while. It's like, what are you talking about? Just go to bed. You don't have to be a hero. It's fine. We've got this. We don't need you. We ended up doing just fine. So, Dom, thank you for stepping in for Sean. Thanks, everyone, for listening to this episode of the Athletic hockey show. The Prospect boys have our next show on Friday. 14 games the NHL tonight. Ooh, poor. You're gonna have to deal with sick Sean during power rankings. With that many games, he is going to be sick and cranky. That's tough. Tough?

[A]

Barely. It's hard enough getting a text from him under normal conditions. Hey, it's power rankings time. Six hours later. All right, let's. Let's get going. So today. Today could be tough because we. We know for a fact there's gonna be, like, a 6 to 7pm danger zone nap mixed in there.

[B]

Oh, my God. Yeah, of course.

[A]

So you might wake up.

[B]

All I know about Sean is that that dude naps, like, every. Every Thursday.

[A]

Well, here's the thing. Scientifically, it's proven that napping increases brain power. I. I read this the other day, and this one I did read.

[B]

Yeah, you didn't tick tock that one.

[A]

This. This one wasn't on. Tick tock this one I. I read.

[B]

Okay.

[A]

On Twitter.

[B]

All right. Well, good luck to you, Dom. Good luck to the power rankings readers. Everyone be on like typo. Watch for Sean's blurbs tomorrow. It's going to be a rough one. Thanks, everyone, for listening. Prospect boys have it on Friday. Hopefully Sean will be back next Thursday.