Andrew (2:07)

Welcome to the NBA Daily presented by Ebay. On today's show, we're talking about the defending champions, the Oklahoma City Thunder. And I'm here with my good friend Alex Spears who hosts Slam and Jam with Me on Saturdays. You're familiar with him through if you're listening on this feed. But also we host every week a thunder show called down to Dunk on Wednesday. So if you want more Thunder content, you can listen to us at down to Dunk, which is Also part of the Athletic. Alex, how's it going?

Alex Spears (2:38)

Good morning Andrew.

Andrew (2:40)

Good morning. Let's talk about the Thunder. We talk about the Thunder every week and all the time in general. But. But let's rewind a little bit. What, what were, what do you think is the most impactful thing that happened to the Thunder this off season?

Alex Spears (2:57)

Most impactful thing that happened to the Thunders off season. It's a mix of getting some guys healthy who didn't really contribute as much as the team probably hoped last season.

Andrew (3:09)

Sure.

Alex Spears (3:10)

Mainly talking about A.J. mitchell and Nikola topic.

Andrew (3:14)

Yeah.

Alex Spears (3:14)

While also having this J Dub wrist injury which at least based on what we heard at media day isn't fully healed yet. We still don't totally know how long it's going to take to get back to I mean forget playoff J Dub because he was still injured at that point. But get back to fully healthy J Dub so we can see what his next step is. It's still unclear. I mean he was at media day describing his wrist as a frozen Laffy Taffy that you're trying to bend and you saw the wrist, you know, you saw that it was still a little swollen. And so I think that combination. We're getting some, some new guys in going to be working them into the rotation. But also there's still this kind of question hanging over Jdub is like how long is it going to take him to get back? No one's super worried because the team is so deep, but it still is a question I think.

Andrew (4:04)

Yeah, it will be. It could impact the start of the season. He may play anyways. He's played through a lot of things and so we'll just have to see. A lot of that will just depend on what their docs say. I would also say another significant thing is that they resigned their big three. They got Shea on a four year $285 million extension. Jdove signed a, a five year extension worth up to 287 which has. It will be tough for him to get all of that money. And then chet signed a five year, $250 million deal that doesn't have those escalators in it. And if you haven't heard about this, this summary, if you're not like super dialed into how the Thunder signed these contracts, these escalators for these rookies, the second year maxes you can, you can get up to 287 if you make all NBA or if you win MVP or if you win defensive player of the year. And making all NBA is certainly possible for Both of these guys. Chet didn't take any of those escalators for his contract, so it's going to stay flat. And then Jdub's contract is pretty unique. There. There have been a few others done like this, but not many where if he makes the third team, he gets like an extra percentage. If he makes the second team, he gets 2%. If he gets all the way up to first email, NBA or MVP or deployment, then he gets like the full escalator. So it's a really unique contract that is giving back to the Thunder because if JW does happen to miss time, he's probably not getting any of those escalators.

Alex Spears (5:49)

That's true. I hadn't even thought about that yet.

Andrew (5:51)

And it saves the Thunder quite a bit of money. When you're talking about percentage of the cap, it would be 10% of the cap essentially between both of these guys that you save. That could. Could potentially have been, you know, on the Thunder's books. So they do give back in that way to the Thunder, which I do think is pretty significant. Especially when you're talking about a team that will eventually be in the second apron that's going to pay a lot of money in luxury tax at some point. To have those guys give back a little bit is going to be very helpful.

Alex Spears (6:23)

Yeah, those were team friendly maxes. Like they got so much money, but it's still very team friendly because I think the situation that happened with Evan Mobley last season, you know, in another world where Chet's healthy for an entire season, like that's possible because as. As much as Victor Wembanyama is the overwhelming favorite and probably will be the overwhelming favorite to win defensive player of the year every single year when he has seasons where he doesn't play 65 games, all of a sudden, you know it's going to be someone else. And that jump that Evan Mobley experienced in his contract, I mean, something like that would, if that happened to okc, which it can't now because the way contracts are structured, I. I mean, that would really hurt. You're instantly having to move on from players. Most likely because that jump is going to be so significant, it's going to push them clear into the second apron. And at least for now, I mean, they've got one more season avoiding anything. And Presti believes they're going to be able to avoid the repeater tax through the life of this current cba. That's huge. And that plays into some of those contract negotiations as well.

Andrew (7:27)

Yeah. My next question is this what player do you expect to make the biggest leap this next season?

Alex Spears (7:36)

I think it's Chet. And I know that Chet got some flack in the playoffs and rightly deserved in some cases because of his offense. His offense was not great in the playoffs. I get it. He shot the ball terribly.

Andrew (7:50)

He.

Alex Spears (7:51)

His handle was loose, you know, turning the ball over in weird situations where it felt like he was trying to do a little too much. One, I think that really overlooks how good he was defensively and how good the Thunder have been on the court when he's played. Like just in the last year's playoffs, he was a plus 7.6 or the OKC was a plus 7.6 when he was on the court. That was the highest among any OKC player who played at least 500 minutes in the playoffs. In 23 playoff games, opponents shot 52.3% within 6ft of the rim when he was on the court. Chet in the 23, 24 playoffs. So this is that. That series second round, most people remember against the Mavs, plus 18.2 over those playoffs, like he has been. This team has been so good when Chet is on the court and fall off so significantly. And that's with him not being a very great offensive player yet. And so I think if he, if we see any improvement offensively, his value is just going to become so apparent to everyone. I mean, I think people were really on the chip bandwagon and then in the playoffs because of his offense and then just coming off these two weird injuries with the Lis, Frank injury, his rookie season, and then, you know, falling and breaking this bone that people just don't. Basketball players just don't break. Usually people are rightly skeptical about his future. You know, like, one, is he going to be healthy? And two, what is he going to be offensively? But we saw it at the beginning of last season when he came into that season healthy before he got hurt those like 10 games. It looked like a completely different offensive player. And I just don't see a reason why we shouldn't expect to get him to get back to some level close to that this upcoming season. He's had a full healthy off season to work out. He talked about it at media day, all the stuff he's doing. So I think he is the clearest answer for this because I think if we see any offensive improvement, I mean, he's. If we see any offensive improvement, he's going to be in like all star conversations because the defense is so good already and those impact metrics are going to be great regardless.

Andrew (9:58)

Yeah, I just think getting healthy and even just healing completely, like from the atrophy that he had in his legs, because after he had that hip injury, he could not move for a long time. And just like gaining strength back in his legs, I think is going to be really important for him. I don't know. Make all the jokes about Chet having skinny legs. He has very skinny legs. Seen him in person, they're very skinny. But still, he had to regain a lot of strength in his body. And I don't. I would say with certainty that he didn't have all that strength in the playoffs. And so for him, like, just go back and look at a couple of his games that he played before he got injured. He was looking like he was heading toward an all star season.

Alex Spears (10:41)

And so also, like, go back and watch him in some of those finals games, like in game seven, it looked like he was the only guy on the court who could guard T.J. mcConnell.

Andrew (10:49)

He had five blocks in that game.

Alex Spears (10:52)

Like, he was still really good. He just was not great offensively. But like, I just don't want people to forget that he was so good defensively throughout the playoffs.

Andrew (11:02)

He was. He was quite good. He was quite good. Okay, next question. What are the expectations for the best players on this team? We talked about Chet. I think that we turn. Turn to Shay. Like, what, what are the expectations for Shay? I mean, the guy is coming off mvp, finals mvp, all NBA, first team, all star. Like, what in the world can this guy do this next season?

Alex Spears (11:32)

I don't know. It's hard to expect him to like, make another jump. Because when you're having seasons that you can only really compare to guys like Michael Jordan, statistically, it's like, well, how much can I really. How much more can I really ask?

Andrew (11:46)

Right. Scoring. Scoring champ as well.

Alex Spears (11:49)

Yeah, scoring champ as well. I mean, even something like this three point shooting, which is something that we as fans have harped on for years and years, like. Yeah, because there was this one season where he shot 42% from three on about five attempts per game. That was his third season in the league, his second season in OKC. And the next few seasons, everything just reverted. Like he just couldn't shoot again. And then all of a sudden he stopped taking threes. Last season, it like started to come back and he's taking 5.7 per game, shooting 38%. So even that, I don't know if I can really expect him to improve that much more on his three pointers. So I guess I'm just interested to see how he responds to last season. He seems like he comes across as the type of guy who is very easy to just forget about what happened last season and he's going to, you know, attack this new season in a new way. But I don't know what I should expect more than last season. Like, is there any specific skill that you're looking for Shay to improve?

Andrew (12:51)

I think his passing can get better. I think the team's passing overall needs to get better because you could see at times the offense would get pretty bogged down during the playoffs and it would get in the mud and it would, there were, there were parts where it was like really tough for them to score. Even though this is a great offense during the regular season, I do think his passing overall can get better. I talked about media day and kind of laid a similar question out to him about this. I listed all his accolades that he achieved last season and he just talked about how his motivation isn't necessarily for accolades. He, he said my, his real interest is in maximizing the basketball player he can be and like trying to like, see where it goes. Like he doesn't know, I mean, I don't know that he even had, you know, any dreams of this actually being his life. I mean this is a crazy life for a guy that was not expected to be here. Like this wasn't like LeBron coming out of high school that people expected to be here. Like he wasn't expected to be this guy. But his motivation is more so in just like completely maximizing who he can be as a basketball player. And he's just talked about how excited he's, he was to see where it goes, which should be like, that should be really exciting for NBA fans because I do think he's, he's getting better. He's. I don't think he's at his peak yet and he already has achieved so much. It. What's weird to me is like thinking about his career. He's only a three time all star. Like I think this, this guy's gonna make a lot of all star teams. He's only done it three times. It's. It's just kind of strange to think about it that way. But Shay has, he still has a long way to go. I mean, he just turned 27 in July. He's. He still has a lot of room for growth. And I don't know exactly what that looks like, but if I were to push the, the little, the little switch for NBA 2K to one side. I would pick the passing one. I think it should become a better passer.

Alex Spears (15:01)

I think bringing up passing is, is a a good one because earlier when I mentioned, you know, bringing in Topich and A.J. mitchell, that's what I was thinking of. You know, that sure. This team needs some injection of creative high level passing and I still don't know if that's going to come from, from Shea or or Dub, even though I do think Dub got better last season. But those guys in Topic and AJ just improves the overall passing of the team and maybe we do see some kind of jump there from Shea. That would be very exciting. I mean, just thinking about the idea of Shea, Gilgis Alexander not being at his peak yet is exciting because last season felt like such a peak season. It felt like, oh, this is obviously the season you'll go back to and look at on Basketball Reference. It'll have all the awards listed out. Like that'll be the line you look at. But who knows? Who knows?

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Dana (16:29)

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Andrew (18:11)

The next question I have that we've talked about on some of these is like trades, but I don't think the Thunder are a team that's going to be looking to make a lot of moves. One, they won the NBA title and they're bringing everybody back. You don't necessarily need to make moves. They're bringing in Nikola topic like you mentioned. They also have Thomas Sorber who is recovering from an ACL tear. He'll come. He won't play this year, but he'll come back next year. So like they have these pieces in place. You also have potentially high draft picks coming for the 2026 draft. So you have like all these pieces that are coming in. But I would say they also won't make trades too because they are below the tax like we talked about. So they're not going to take on money that could potentially put them in danger of going into the tax. But I do think like if you were, if they're going to deal one guy, it's probably Usman Jang, who did not get an extension. He was the only guy that they drafted in that class, including Chet, J Dub and Jay Will. They all got extensions this summer. Us did not get one. I don't think we expected him to. But typically the Thunder move on from those kind of guys that don't get their extensions. They usually trade those guys, you know, before the next summer. So I would expect that to be done. But as far as like a lot of moves to be made, I wouldn't have very high expectations for that for okc.

Alex Spears (19:33)

Yeah, I think that kind of showed us that last season. I mean in a season where Chet misses 50 games, Hartenstein misses like another ton of games. Yeah, there were, there were moments during that season where the Thunder fan base was calling for trades. Like can we please get some reinforcements in here either because our we don't trust our big men coming back and being healthy for a whole playoff run, which they did end up being. Or because of the shooting. Like there were moments during that season and especially during the playoffs even where you're like, man, this team could use a real Shooter. I mean, I remember back in. I guess it was January, like, okay, what. What would it. What would he need to give up to get Cam Johnson on this team?

Andrew (20:11)

The Cam Johnson conversation. Yep.

Alex Spears (20:13)

Yeah. And that would have been fun. Would have been fun. But they won the title, so it doesn't really matter for right now until we play Denver in the playoffs and he hits 11 threes in a game, then it will. Battery game.

Andrew (20:24)

We could have traded for him. Yeah. What do you think is the biggest swing factor for this team? Like, to everybody's. Now the conversation shifts from like, yeah, you won the title. It's amazing. What a great team too. And now can you do it again? What's the biggest swing factor in them actually doing it again? Okay.

Alex Spears (20:48)

So I feel a couple different ways you could go with this, but it's hard not to say health because Presti brought it up during his press conference. The 11 guys who played during the playoffs, they. Or the playoff rotation in the playoffs, they only played for 11 games together during the regular season. It was something like that.

Andrew (21:11)

Yep.

Alex Spears (21:13)

Which is easy to forget because they were so dominant in the regular season. And it's just hard as a Thunder fan not to think about what if they did get a fully healthy season from their big men. Let's just start with one position now, the Jet.

Andrew (21:26)

The.

Alex Spears (21:26)

The. The J Dub. Wrist injury does like kind of throw a wrench into that if he's coming in the season. Not healthy. But I would just love to see what this team's ceiling is if they are completely healthy. Because the other thing about all those guys missing time is we really didn't get a lot of exploration time for that Double Big lineup until the playoffs. That was basically the chance for Mark to really explore that lineup and let's see what it can do. And so getting a more extended period with that Double Big lineup, because as good as that double Big lineup was at times, it clearly wasn't locked in because as soon as we got to the finals, Mark made a lineup change, which he eventually reverted back to the double Big. But it clearly wasn't. He wasn't so confident in it that it's just like locked in. I'm going to start this every night because he subbed in case in. So I would love to see what that double Big lineup can do over the course of a full season. And can something be unlocked there? Because there were times when it felt really good. There are also times when it felt really clunky. And if that is unlocked, that could be a huge swing Piece.

Andrew (22:35)

Yeah, I think internal development with regards to shooting is really important for this team. And I think must it's one of the swing pieces. And specifically in the playoffs, and this is kind of where I point back to the passing, just like getting guys better shots. And I do think adding, I don't know how much Nikola Topic is going to play in this next playoff run. I honestly have no clue what to expect from Topic overall, but I think AJ Mitchell just being a more dynamic player can help that. Because you think about some of the other guys that they have coming off the bench. Like Isaiah Joe is like purely a shooter. Aaron Wiggins is purely a score. And AJ Kind of provides like passing, shooting, scoring, like all of that. Like he's just a much more dynamic offensive player. And so I do think injecting that could help. But when you look at the percentages that these guys shot, the guys that shot worse from three in the playoffs, of the following guys, KENICH William shot 20%, played a bit role for the team. Shea was 28%, Chet was 29%, J Dub was 30%.

Alex Spears (23:47)

So bad.

Andrew (23:47)

You can point to the 30% for J Dub, you know, with the wrist, because it was his shooting hand, of course, but then. Or you can also point to chet at 29% as like, hey, he was recovering from injury still and did not have his left legs under him. Okay, Shea at 28, I think a lot of that was the probably the looks that he was getting. And so you look at other guys that did get good looks. Alex Crusoe is 41, Isaiah Joe was 41%, Wiggins was 36%, even Dort was 34%. And some of that is he's just a streak. You can be really streaky. But they need internal development from their big three, specifically in these high leverage moments. Because I think like if those guys just shoot even close closer to their averages from three, we're talking about much shorter series. Like I think you can point to those percentages and specifically some of the ball movement stuff and say that's probably the reason why they had like these two seven game series was just their inability to really make shots in some of these high leverage moments.

Alex Spears (24:56)

Yeah, it really revealed their margin of error because they shot 28% from three as a team in those playoffs. I don't think you can get away with that. Again, I think that is eventually going to come and bite you. In fact, I thought it was going to happen this year. Especially like during the Denver series. There were just moments where it's Just like they cannot hit a shot. Yeah, no one can hit a shot on this team. We saw it. I mean, it popped up in every single series. What was the game when they only.

Andrew (25:29)

Hit three threes and one? It was game four against the Indiana Pacers in the finals. That was disgusting.

Alex Spears (25:39)

What a gross game.

Andrew (25:40)

And I think they're like 28 of 30. From three or something like that. Or not from three. From the free throw line.

Alex Spears (25:46)

Yeah.

Andrew (25:46)

Like they. They lived at the free throw line and they nearly died from three. They made three the whole night. I remember Shay hit the one down the stretch of that game four, and it felt. It felt like a hundred threes went in, in that one singular moment, because they had a.

Alex Spears (26:06)

They had games in all of their series, actually, where they hit fewer than 10 threes, so. Shot like 20% a game against Memphis, 26% against Denver, 27% against Minnesota. And to their credit, they have found ways to win those games.

Andrew (26:22)

They did.

Alex Spears (26:23)

But if they're going to repeat, I do feel like that has to change. They were living on a knife's edge for some of those series because of their shooting.

Andrew (26:32)

Yeah. And it. It also revealed their margin for error is pretty wide.

Alex Spears (26:38)

It is. It is.

Andrew (26:39)

I don't. I don't know what other team could shoot like that and win the NBA.

Alex Spears (26:44)

Title, but at the same time, like, we're all expecting Denver to be better going. So. So there's some of these west teams that they're going to face that are just going to be the caliber of opponent maybe and probably should be higher in this upcoming playoffs.

Andrew (26:58)

It. It should be. Yes. It should be better than what they played this last year, but things get weird. It was supposed to be this bloodbath this last year, and it was. It was not. Not that it wasn't tough. It was tough, but it should be a little bit harder this year. Okay. Realistic expectations. Al, what's the most realistic expectation for this Thunder team going into this season?

Alex Spears (27:24)

Well, it's hard not to go back and look at recent champions because everyone knows that going Back to the 2019 Toronto Raptors, although I guess you could even go back to the 2018 Warriors. No, it wouldn't work with that. If you go back to the Raptors, every champion has not made it past the second round.

Andrew (27:41)

Yeah.

Alex Spears (27:42)

And I was just going through playoff rotations for all those teams, and every one of those teams up until Boston last year lost at least one piece of their top eight minutes, played their main playoff rotation. They lost at least one of those guys. The Biggest one obviously being Toronto losing Kawhi, but, you know, the Lakers lost Danny Green and Rajon Rondo. Denver, you know, lost Bruce Brown and Jeff Green, who I forgot how much he played in that playoffs. But then last year, Boston, they brought back everyone. And I think a lot of people correctly identified, okay, if a team has a chance to repeat, Boston seems to be the best setup for it. And then they get down, you know, oh, two to the Knicks, and then they lose Jason Tatum. Now, I think OKC's case is even a little bit stronger than Boston's just because of their youth. It feels like there's more room for improvement in terms of internal development and just with all the injuries they experienced during last year's regular season. That said, I feel like the realistic expectation should be okay. They should make the conference finals, they should make the Western Conference finals. And then if it comes down to them in Denver, which I think is a lot of people's expectations right now, that's kind of the, that's, that's, that's the goal. Like, you just want to see those two teams healthy and battle it out. Seven games and may the best man win. Because I, I've talked to you about this. Like, this era is so strange because we're just getting a different champion every single year. And I really feel like the first team to win their second is going to really solidify themselves as the team of this era. And I think Denver and OKC are clearly best set up to do that. And so I hope, I would love to get that rematch of a series just because that series was terrifying as, as a Thunder fan, but very fun. I mean, that game five is one of the greatest games I've ever seen.

Andrew (29:37)

It's all timer, the Lou Dork game.

Alex Spears (29:40)

Yeah, but, but realistic expectations. In my head, I'm saying conference finals are bust. Conference finals, or I'll be really mad. Yeah, but they obviously have title aspirations. You know, they have, they have an expectation to go back to back, I'm sure, internally, but realistic. They have to at least make the conference finals.

Andrew (29:59)

Yeah, I think that is the most realistic outcome as well. And then we'll just have to see where it goes. All right. You can listen to Alex and I on Saturdays, every Saturday during the season, on the Saturday slam and jam. And then you can listen to us on down to Dunk every week, the Wednesday show. So be sure to, to tune in, hope everybody is doing well. And we will continue our season previews the rest of this week up until the following Monday. And Then we will start doing season previews the rest of the week with hopefully some very special guests. So stay locked into everything here on the Athletic NBA Daily.

Jeff Bridges (31:01)

Morning Zoe Got donuts.

Dana (31:02)

Jeff Bridges why are you still living above our garage?

Jeff Bridges (31:05)

Well I dig the mattress and I want to be in a T Mobile commercial like you teach me.

Dana (31:11)

So Dana oh no, I'm not really prepared. I couldn't possibly at T Mobile get the new iPhone 17 Pro on them. It's designed to be the most powerful iPhone yet and has the ultimate pro camera system.

Jeff Bridges (31:24)

Wow. Impressive. Let me try. T Mobile is the best place to get iPhone 17 Pro because they've got the best network.

Andrew (31:31)

Nice.

Dana (31:32)

Jeffrey, you heard them.

T Mobile Announcer (31:33)

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Jeff Bridges (31:40)

So what are we having for launch?

Dana (31:42)

Dude, my work here is done.

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