The Athletic NBA Daily – January 16, 2026
Episode Summary: Do the Rockets Pass the Eye Test?
Main Theme
In this episode, Dave Dufour and Esper Henny, with reporting from Joe Varden in Berlin, dive into the latest NBA action with a particular focus on the Houston Rockets. The hosts debate whether the Rockets’ impressive stats actually translate when watching them on the court—the so-called "eye test." The episode is rounded out with a breakdown of marquee games, standout performances (notably Anthony Black’s dunk in Berlin), and major storylines such as the Bucks’ struggles and Ja Morant’s situation in Memphis.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Berlin Game: Magic vs. Grizzlies & Anthony Black's Dunk
- [02:47–04:11, 16:26–19:06]
- The Orlando Magic beat the Memphis Grizzlies 118-111 in Berlin, led by German stars Franz and Mo Wagner.
- Anthony Black's dunk (4th quarter) is described as “one of the best dunks I’ve ever seen” (Dave Dufour, 03:07). Black dunked over four Grizzlies in a clutch moment, swinging momentum for the Magic.
- Memorable Quote:
“This is one of the best dunks I’ve ever seen… he dunked on four guys.”
—Dave Dufour (03:08) - Joe Varden provides context: the dunk shifted the tide and electrified the German crowd rooting for the Magic because of the Wagners (17:28–18:11).
- Quote:
“Black gets in there in traffic over these people… It was nuts. And then the crowd, you know, it’s a German crowd, but they’re all there rooting for the Magic because of the Wagners.”
—Joe Varden (17:51) - The crowd and moment elevated the game’s atmosphere, making the dunk “dunk of the year” material.
- Memorable Quote:
- Franz Wagner’s Return: Looked rusty but took over in crunch time. Joe Varden notes the significance for Berlin and German basketball, and how the NBA’s visit energizes Berlin, especially with the Wagners as hometown heroes (19:06–22:00).
2. Thunder vs. Rockets—Do the Rockets Pass the Eye Test?
- [04:11–08:41]
- Thunder win 111-91; Shai Gilgeous-Alexander extends his 20-point streak.
- Quote:
“They win this game 111 to 91. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, another 20 point game. Where are we at now?”
—Dave Dufour (04:11)
- Quote:
- Main analysis focuses not on the Thunder’s dominance, but on the Rockets’ methods and flaws:
- Rockets: Top 10 in offense and defense, elite at rebounding, but offense is “gimmicky.”
- Their offense heavily relies on offensive rebounds to create shot volume (taking 15 more shots than OKC) but lacks creative playmaking and system buckets.
- Made only 7 threes (vs. OKC’s 16)—this “math problem” dooms them, especially in big games.
- “All of their good offense seems predicated on getting an offensive rebound first...there are no plays being run. There’s no system buckets.”
—Dave Dufour (04:57)
- “All of their good offense seems predicated on getting an offensive rebound first...there are no plays being run. There’s no system buckets.”
- Rockets need a true playmaker; pressure mounts on Reed Shepherd and Amen Thompson. Offense too reliant on Kevin Durant and Alperen Şengün isolations.
- “Quality of the shots that OKC was getting versus the quality Houston was getting...night and day.”
—Esper Henny (06:32)
- “Quality of the shots that OKC was getting versus the quality Houston was getting...night and day.”
- Playoff viability questioned; unless KD/Shengun are keyed in, they struggle to generate easy looks under pressure.
- “It’s not a shot diet that I think a team can survive on. Kevin Durant can, but the rest of those dudes can’t.”
—Dave Dufour (07:21)
- “It’s not a shot diet that I think a team can survive on. Kevin Durant can, but the rest of those dudes can’t.”
- Devil's Advocate Case for Rockets:
- They match up physically with OKC (won offensive rebounding 23–7 in this game) and could grind out a postseason series due to physical play.
- “They do match up well with OKC because the size that they have gives them advantage on the offensive rebounds...That’s the identity they have to keep in mind if they want to get far in the playoffs.”
—Esper Henny (07:40)
- “They do match up well with OKC because the size that they have gives them advantage on the offensive rebounds...That’s the identity they have to keep in mind if they want to get far in the playoffs.”
- They match up physically with OKC (won offensive rebounding 23–7 in this game) and could grind out a postseason series due to physical play.
- Summary: The Rockets look strong on paper but the lack of playmaking and reliance on tough shot-making makes their playoff ceiling questionable.
3. Chet Holmgren, Wemby, and Defensive Excellence
- [08:43–10:00]
- Chet Holmgren’s Bounceback Game:
- After a tough game vs. the Spurs, Chet posts 18 points, 9 rebounds, 4 blocks vs. Houston.
- His defense is lauded; provides “prime Rudy Gobert” level protection and is suggested as a Defensive Player of the Year candidate if Wemby misses time.
- “If Wemby misses games here, Chet is the Defensive Player of the Year.”
—Esper Henny (09:10)
- “If Wemby misses games here, Chet is the Defensive Player of the Year.”
4. Bucks Embarrassed Again—Is It Time for Drastic Changes?
- [10:00–14:36]
- Bucks lose another blowout, this time to the Spurs, trailing by 37 entering the fourth quarter.
- Giannis left and returned after a knee collision with Wemby.
- The Spurs and Wemby are described as regularly dominant; the Bucks looked disinterested.
- The Bucks’ last three games:
- Loss to the Jokic-less Nuggets
- Blowout by the Timberwolves
- Demolition by the Spurs
- Is Giannis’ Future in Milwaukee in Jeopardy?
- Team described as a “dead pirate ship” — aimless and lacking spark.
- Increasingly likely the Bucks will have to move on from Giannis unless they attempt desperate trades (Levine, Morant, Michael Porter Jr.).
- “If you have to act desperate to try to keep him, fine, man. Go out there and beg in the rain. Do whatever you need to do. Right? Hold up the boombox. I don’t care.”
—Dave Dufour (13:57)
- “If you have to act desperate to try to keep him, fine, man. Go out there and beg in the rain. Do whatever you need to do. Right? Hold up the boombox. I don’t care.”
- But no real optimism the Bucks’ situation will improve.
5. Magic in Germany: NBA's European Presence
- [19:06–22:24]
- The presence of the Wagner brothers in the NBA inspires Berlin and promotes basketball’s growth in Germany.
- Their success—World Cup and EuroBasket gold—contrasted with Dirk Nowitzki’s more individual path.
- “Their development is something that you can point to as success. More so than Dirk Nowitzki...They are real development success stories. Especially Franz.”
—Dave Dufour (22:24)
- “Their development is something that you can point to as success. More so than Dirk Nowitzki...They are real development success stories. Especially Franz.”
- Their success—World Cup and EuroBasket gold—contrasted with Dirk Nowitzki’s more individual path.
6. Grizzlies & Ja Morant’s Uncertain Future
- [22:24–27:18]
- Memphis’ collapse: Blew a 20-point lead to the Magic.
- Ja Morant Situation:
- Morant was on the trip, not playing due to a calf bruise; Adam Silver expressed disappointment that Ja didn’t play (24:04–24:40).
- Tension: Ja acknowledged as on the trade block for the first time, taking it hard; recent argument with teammate Vince Williams during media-available practice (24:04–25:45).
- Memphis won’t rush a trade, but recognizes they may not get commensurate value given the baggage—return might not be worthy of a "former #2 pick, three-time All-Star." (24:04–26:40)
- Quote:
“I do believe he’s probably run his course as you’re mentioning, like with a lot of his teammates… The Grizzlies aren’t going to trade him just to trade him.”
—Joe Varden (24:56)
- Quote:
- Off-court issues differentiate this from other star exits, such as Trae Young in Atlanta.
- Trade likely waits until summer unless the right offer emerges.
7. NBA in Europe and Around the League Moments
- [27:21–28:36]
- The Magic and Grizzlies are heading to London next—increasing excitement, but note that neither city (nor London) are traditional basketball hotbeds.
- Joe Varden shares a fun anecdote about running into NBA legends Dirk Nowitzki and Steve Nash at a restaurant in Berlin, highlighting the convergence of NBA "royalty" during these global events.
Notable Quotes & Moments (with Timestamps)
- Anthony Black's dunk:
- “This is one of the best dunks I’ve ever seen… he dunked on four guys.”
—Dave Dufour (03:08)
- “This is one of the best dunks I’ve ever seen… he dunked on four guys.”
- On the Rockets’ offense:
- “All of their good offense seems predicated on getting an offensive rebound first...there are no plays being run. There’s no system buckets.”
—Dave Dufour (04:57)
- “All of their good offense seems predicated on getting an offensive rebound first...there are no plays being run. There’s no system buckets.”
- On Rockets’ playoff viability:
- “It’s not a shot diet that I think a team can survive on. Kevin Durant can, but the rest of those dudes can’t.”
—Dave Dufour (07:21)
- “It’s not a shot diet that I think a team can survive on. Kevin Durant can, but the rest of those dudes can’t.”
- On Chet Holmgren:
- “If Wemby misses games here, Chet is the Defensive Player of the Year.”
—Esper Henny (09:10)
- “If Wemby misses games here, Chet is the Defensive Player of the Year.”
- On the Bucks’ malaise:
- “They’re just kind of like on a dead pirate ship at this point. You know what I mean? Like a ghost ship sailing through the Atlantic trying to find, digging a ditch to nowhere.”
—Esper Henny (12:28)
- “They’re just kind of like on a dead pirate ship at this point. You know what I mean? Like a ghost ship sailing through the Atlantic trying to find, digging a ditch to nowhere.”
- On Bucks keeping Giannis:
- “If you have to act desperate to try to keep him, fine, man. Go out there and beg in the rain. Do whatever you need to do.”
—Dave Dufour (13:57)
- “If you have to act desperate to try to keep him, fine, man. Go out there and beg in the rain. Do whatever you need to do.”
- On the Ja Morant situation:
- “There is an awareness on the part of the Grizzlies that like the return that they’re going to get for a former number two pick three time all star, you know, may not match what that sounds like on paper...if the offer’s right, they will move him. If they think there’s a better chance for a better offer come summer, they’ll wait till then.”
—Joe Varden (24:56, 26:56)
- “There is an awareness on the part of the Grizzlies that like the return that they’re going to get for a former number two pick three time all star, you know, may not match what that sounds like on paper...if the offer’s right, they will move him. If they think there’s a better chance for a better offer come summer, they’ll wait till then.”
Important Timestamps for Key Segments
- 02:47 – Magic vs. Grizzlies in Berlin; Anthony Black's dunk
- 04:11 – Thunder vs. Rockets, eye test discussion begins
- 05:19 – Rockets’ playstyle analysis; offensive rebounding reliance
- 06:32 – Rockets' need for a playmaker
- 07:40 – Devil's advocate: Rockets' playoff prospects
- 08:43 – Chet Holmgren’s defensive impact
- 10:00 – Bucks blown out by Spurs; Giannis and future in Milwaukee
- 13:57 – Giannis trade/double-down desperation
- 16:26 – Joe Varden live from Berlin; Black’s dunk detailed
- 19:06 – Franz Wagner's return and German impact
- 24:04 – Ja Morant’s trade status and situation in Memphis
- 27:21 – Preview of Magic vs. Grizzlies in London; NBA and Europe
- 28:36 – Joe Varden’s restaurant anecdotes, NBA camaraderie
Tone and Style
- The conversation is lively, filled with friendly banter and deep basketball insights. The hosts balance analytical rigor with humor and vibrant descriptions, making complex basketball nuances accessible and entertaining—especially for listeners who haven't caught the games.
Conclusion
The episode thoroughly debates the legitimacy of the Houston Rockets as contenders, highlighting their dominance in rebounding and defense but exposing shortcomings in their half-court offense and shot creation. Meanwhile, they celebrate memorable moments from NBA Europe, spotlight the Bucks’ malaise, and deliver insider updates on Ja Morant. Above all, the team delivers memorable analysis with both expertise and levity, making for a can’t-miss NBA breakdown.