The Athletic NBA Daily – March 27, 2026

Episode: NBA All-Surprise Team w/ Fred Katz
Hosts: Dave DeFore & Fred Katz

Episode Overview

On this episode, Dave DeFore is joined by The Athletic’s Fred Katz for a deep dive into the current NBA playoff races and Fred's just-released "All-Surprise Teams" article. The pair deliver a lively, insightful discussion on some of the season's most surprising players and developments, breaking down key matchups, evolving team identities, and the transformation of notable young talents. Whether you're an obsessive NBA watcher or a casual fan, this episode delivers sharp basketball analysis, notable stats, and inside stories.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Playoff Races and Team Identities (01:21 – 11:24)

• West Playoff Race:

  • Focus on seeds 4, 5, and 6—particularly a potential Nuggets-Timberwolves first round series (“that will be the one...every single time those two teams play each other, it is an event.” — Fred Katz, 02:43).
  • Nuggets seen as a team underperforming during the regular season, but still feared if healthy. Denver’s core described as feeling “older” than their age due to play style, not just age (“They feel like maybe a team that would be gunning for a title four years ago, not this new modern [NBA].” — Dave DeFore, 03:59).
  • Defensive injuries (Aaron Gordon, Peyton Watson) and the critical Jokic-Murray two-man game are highlighted: “It’s the best two-man game in the NBA...it works both ways.” (Fred Katz, 05:03–06:13)

• Timberwolves’ Growth:

  • Minnesota’s roster makeup, recent Julius Randle trade, and ability to defend Jokic.
  • Consistency issues are discussed—T-wolves are “heavyweight fighters” against elite teams but prone to upsets.
  • “No matter who the Wolves are playing...I will pick every Wolf series and every Knick series to go six or seven no matter what. That is just what these teams do.” — Fred Katz, 10:09

2. East Playoff Narrative: Celtics vs. Knicks (11:24 – 22:35)

• Preview of a potential Boston-New York second-round clash, with the Celtics lauded for improved big man depth and rebounding schemes.
• Mitchell Robinson’s impact as a generational offensive rebounder is dissected (“If he were playing enough minutes...he would be about to break the record for highest offensive rebound rate in a single season ever.” — Fred Katz, 14:24).
• Discussion on Boston’s adaptive strategies—acquiring Vucevic and developing Nimi Keita to counteract Robinson’s unique “rebounding gravity.”
• Fascinating breakdown of team offensive rebounding crash rates, box-outs, and the trickle-down effects for floor spacing and transition defense (13:11–18:37).
• Dave and Fred compare this year’s Celtics to prior versions, emphasizing defensive evolution, especially Derrick White’s rim protection:
  “There is a larger delta between that skill [Derrick White rim protection] and the average skill for his position than maybe any defensive skill for any player in the league, including Wemby.” — Fred Katz, 21:05

3. Fred Katz’s All Surprise Teams (25:52 – 45:15)

• Concept and Criteria:
  • “It’s not most improved, it’s not just out-of-nowhere guys...it’s sort of vibes. Was I really that surprised?” — Fred Katz, 27:56
  • Fred prefers intuition—a player might not make the cut if he was already on his radar the previous year.

3.1. First Team All-Surprise (29:13)

• Players: Jalen Duren, Nikhil Alexander-Walker, AJ Mitchell, Nimi Keita, Jaylon Tyson
• Spotlight:

  • Jalen Duren (Detroit Pistons):
    Dramatic defensive leap after being a liability last year; now a strength in P&R coverage and rim protection.
    “His conditioning needed to be better just so he could be in a defensive stance all the time.” — Fred Katz, 30:37
    “The most consequential improvement for any particular skill in the league this year is Jalen Duren’s defense.” — Fred Katz, 31:25

  • Jaylon Tyson (Cavaliers):
    Not just a shooter (46% from three), but a high-impact ‘vibes’ guy—adds toughness and edge.
    “He has such a sophisticated game for a second year guy, especially one who didn’t play as a rookie...is there a world where this guy is just like, legitimately awesome?” — Fred Katz, 38:31
    “I think he might be an elite catch-and-shoot guy already. He can defend like crazy. He's going to be on the court.” — Dave DeFore, 38:19

3.2. Second Team All-Surprise (39:09)

• Players: Ryan Rollins, Collin Gillespie, Keyonte George, Anthony Black, Peyton Watson
• Spotlight:

  • Ryan Rollins (Milwaukee Bucks):
    Breakout as a volume scorer and defender playing real rotation minutes, not just garbage time.
    “He was going up against reserves...now he’s maintaining these numbers against starters.” — Fred Katz, 42:12

  • Keyonte George (Utah Jazz):
    Major leap in ability to get by defenders; possible future All-Star.
    “He can get by guys now. Like, no one can stay in front of him. That has opened up the floor for the entire team.” — Dave DeFore, 44:18
    “His foul rate is way up...his free throw rate is 43%...it’s because of that ability to play with pace and finish through physicality.” — Fred Katz, 45:39

3.3. Other Notables

• Difference between "opportunity" and genuine improvement: The challenge of evaluating stats contextually (41:03–41:22).
• Anthony Black’s improvements also flagged for increased pace, poise, and multi-positional utility.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “This regular season feels kind of fake for [the Nuggets].” — Dave DeFore, 07:13
• “Mitchell Robinson is one of the few rebounders in the league who has gravity on the offensive boards.” — Fred Katz, 16:10
• “Boxing out is such a lost art.” — Fred Katz, 18:55
• “Derrick White is giving legitimate rim protection from your point guard...analytics paint him as like clearly in the same area as legitimately good rim protecting centers.” — Fred Katz, 21:05
• “[Jaylon Tyson] has got this mentality that is just like he’s the best player on the court, even though he’s not. He’s got like a bulldog sort of thing to him.” — Dave DeFore, 35:30
• “There are a number of times where I’ve watched [Tyson] this year, I’m like oh, like, is this guy going to be like, actually, like, like, an All-Star?” — Fred Katz, 38:31
• “The talent curve in the NBA has flattened over the last 20 years and now like, there’s just no bums out there.” — Dave DeFore, 46:57

Important Timestamps

• 01:21 - Start of NBA content, playoff conversation
• 02:43–07:20 - Nuggets, Timberwolves, pace vs. chemistry, aging teams
• 11:24–14:23 - Celtics-Knicks playoff preview; Mitchell Robinson’s rebounding
• 14:23–18:37 - Advanced rebounding, “gravity” of Robinson, Vucevic’s trade impact
• 21:05 - Derrick White’s defensive uniqueness
• 25:52 - All-Surprise Team: concept, criteria
• 29:13–39:09 - First Team All-Surprise deep dive
• 39:09–45:54 - Second Team All-Surprise, Rollins & George spotlights

Episode Summary Table

| Time | Segment | Key Points | |-----------|-------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------| | 01:21 | Playoff Race | Nuggets/T-wolves, Western race, style vs. athleticism | | 11:24 | East Matchups | Celtics-Knicks preview, rebounding chess match | | 25:52 | All-Surprise Teams | Origin, criteria, 1st team breakdown: Duren, Tyson | | 39:09 | All-Surprise Second Team | Rollins’ emergence, Keyonte George’s pace leap | | 46:57 | League-wide Trends | More depth, fewer “bums,” future expansion debated |

Final Thoughts

This episode is a must-listen for NBA fans who love deep dives into both player analytics and the more intangible “vibes” aspects of team construction. From actionable playoff matchups to fascinating player development stories, Fred Katz’s All Surprise Team segment provides both hard numbers and insightful scouting. The friendly banter and sharp observations make it a standout edition of The Athletic NBA Daily.

Hosts: Dave DeFore, Fred Katz
Recorded: March 27, 2026
Podcast: The Athletic NBA Daily