NBA All-Surprise Team w/ Fred Katz

Summary

The Athletic NBA Daily – March 27, 2026

Episode: NBA All-Surprise Team w/ Fred Katz
Hosts: Dave DeFore & Fred Katz

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Episode Overview

On this episode, Dave DeFore is joined by The Athletic’s Fred Katz for a deep dive into the current NBA playoff races and Fred's just-released "All-Surprise Teams" article. The pair deliver a lively, insightful discussion on some of the season's most surprising players and developments, breaking down key matchups, evolving team identities, and the transformation of notable young talents. Whether you're an obsessive NBA watcher or a casual fan, this episode delivers sharp basketball analysis, notable stats, and inside stories.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Playoff Races and Team Identities (01:21 – 11:24)

• West Playoff Race:

  • Focus on seeds 4, 5, and 6—particularly a potential Nuggets-Timberwolves first round series (“that will be the one...every single time those two teams play each other, it is an event.” — Fred Katz, 02:43).
  • Nuggets seen as a team underperforming during the regular season, but still feared if healthy. Denver’s core described as feeling “older” than their age due to play style, not just age (“They feel like maybe a team that would be gunning for a title four years ago, not this new modern [NBA].” — Dave DeFore, 03:59).
  • Defensive injuries (Aaron Gordon, Peyton Watson) and the critical Jokic-Murray two-man game are highlighted: “It’s the best two-man game in the NBA...it works both ways.” (Fred Katz, 05:03–06:13)

• Timberwolves’ Growth:

  • Minnesota’s roster makeup, recent Julius Randle trade, and ability to defend Jokic.
  • Consistency issues are discussed—T-wolves are “heavyweight fighters” against elite teams but prone to upsets.
  • “No matter who the Wolves are playing...I will pick every Wolf series and every Knick series to go six or seven no matter what. That is just what these teams do.” — Fred Katz, 10:09

2. East Playoff Narrative: Celtics vs. Knicks (11:24 – 22:35)

• Preview of a potential Boston-New York second-round clash, with the Celtics lauded for improved big man depth and rebounding schemes.
• Mitchell Robinson’s impact as a generational offensive rebounder is dissected (“If he were playing enough minutes...he would be about to break the record for highest offensive rebound rate in a single season ever.” — Fred Katz, 14:24).
• Discussion on Boston’s adaptive strategies—acquiring Vucevic and developing Nimi Keita to counteract Robinson’s unique “rebounding gravity.”
• Fascinating breakdown of team offensive rebounding crash rates, box-outs, and the trickle-down effects for floor spacing and transition defense (13:11–18:37).
• Dave and Fred compare this year’s Celtics to prior versions, emphasizing defensive evolution, especially Derrick White’s rim protection:
  “There is a larger delta between that skill [Derrick White rim protection] and the average skill for his position than maybe any defensive skill for any player in the league, including Wemby.” — Fred Katz, 21:05

3. Fred Katz’s All Surprise Teams (25:52 – 45:15)

• Concept and Criteria:
  • “It’s not most improved, it’s not just out-of-nowhere guys...it’s sort of vibes. Was I really that surprised?” — Fred Katz, 27:56
  • Fred prefers intuition—a player might not make the cut if he was already on his radar the previous year.

3.1. First Team All-Surprise (29:13)

• Players: Jalen Duren, Nikhil Alexander-Walker, AJ Mitchell, Nimi Keita, Jaylon Tyson
• Spotlight:

  • Jalen Duren (Detroit Pistons):
    Dramatic defensive leap after being a liability last year; now a strength in P&R coverage and rim protection.
    “His conditioning needed to be better just so he could be in a defensive stance all the time.” — Fred Katz, 30:37
    “The most consequential improvement for any particular skill in the league this year is Jalen Duren’s defense.” — Fred Katz, 31:25

  • Jaylon Tyson (Cavaliers):
    Not just a shooter (46% from three), but a high-impact ‘vibes’ guy—adds toughness and edge.
    “He has such a sophisticated game for a second year guy, especially one who didn’t play as a rookie...is there a world where this guy is just like, legitimately awesome?” — Fred Katz, 38:31
    “I think he might be an elite catch-and-shoot guy already. He can defend like crazy. He's going to be on the court.” — Dave DeFore, 38:19

3.2. Second Team All-Surprise (39:09)

• Players: Ryan Rollins, Collin Gillespie, Keyonte George, Anthony Black, Peyton Watson
• Spotlight:

  • Ryan Rollins (Milwaukee Bucks):
    Breakout as a volume scorer and defender playing real rotation minutes, not just garbage time.
    “He was going up against reserves...now he’s maintaining these numbers against starters.” — Fred Katz, 42:12

  • Keyonte George (Utah Jazz):
    Major leap in ability to get by defenders; possible future All-Star.
    “He can get by guys now. Like, no one can stay in front of him. That has opened up the floor for the entire team.” — Dave DeFore, 44:18
    “His foul rate is way up...his free throw rate is 43%...it’s because of that ability to play with pace and finish through physicality.” — Fred Katz, 45:39

3.3. Other Notables

• Difference between "opportunity" and genuine improvement: The challenge of evaluating stats contextually (41:03–41:22).
• Anthony Black’s improvements also flagged for increased pace, poise, and multi-positional utility.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “This regular season feels kind of fake for [the Nuggets].” — Dave DeFore, 07:13
• “Mitchell Robinson is one of the few rebounders in the league who has gravity on the offensive boards.” — Fred Katz, 16:10
• “Boxing out is such a lost art.” — Fred Katz, 18:55
• “Derrick White is giving legitimate rim protection from your point guard...analytics paint him as like clearly in the same area as legitimately good rim protecting centers.” — Fred Katz, 21:05
• “[Jaylon Tyson] has got this mentality that is just like he’s the best player on the court, even though he’s not. He’s got like a bulldog sort of thing to him.” — Dave DeFore, 35:30
• “There are a number of times where I’ve watched [Tyson] this year, I’m like oh, like, is this guy going to be like, actually, like, like, an All-Star?” — Fred Katz, 38:31
• “The talent curve in the NBA has flattened over the last 20 years and now like, there’s just no bums out there.” — Dave DeFore, 46:57

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Important Timestamps

• 01:21 - Start of NBA content, playoff conversation
• 02:43–07:20 - Nuggets, Timberwolves, pace vs. chemistry, aging teams
• 11:24–14:23 - Celtics-Knicks playoff preview; Mitchell Robinson’s rebounding
• 14:23–18:37 - Advanced rebounding, “gravity” of Robinson, Vucevic’s trade impact
• 21:05 - Derrick White’s defensive uniqueness
• 25:52 - All-Surprise Team: concept, criteria
• 29:13–39:09 - First Team All-Surprise deep dive
• 39:09–45:54 - Second Team All-Surprise, Rollins & George spotlights

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Episode Summary Table

| Time | Segment | Key Points | |-----------|-------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------| | 01:21 | Playoff Race | Nuggets/T-wolves, Western race, style vs. athleticism | | 11:24 | East Matchups | Celtics-Knicks preview, rebounding chess match | | 25:52 | All-Surprise Teams | Origin, criteria, 1st team breakdown: Duren, Tyson | | 39:09 | All-Surprise Second Team | Rollins’ emergence, Keyonte George’s pace leap | | 46:57 | League-wide Trends | More depth, fewer “bums,” future expansion debated |

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Final Thoughts

This episode is a must-listen for NBA fans who love deep dives into both player analytics and the more intangible “vibes” aspects of team construction. From actionable playoff matchups to fascinating player development stories, Fred Katz’s All Surprise Team segment provides both hard numbers and insightful scouting. The friendly banter and sharp observations make it a standout edition of The Athletic NBA Daily.

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Hosts: Dave DeFore, Fred Katz
Recorded: March 27, 2026
Podcast: The Athletic NBA Daily

Transcript

[Fred Katz]

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[Fred Katz]

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[Dave DeFore]

Good morning and welcome to the NBA Daily presented by Amazon prime for March 27, 2026. I'm Dave Defora here with Fred Katz. Coming up, we go deep on the playoff races in the east and the west and we talk about Fred's all surprise teams. Good morning everybody. What is up? Fred Katz in the house. How are you, man?

[Fred Katz]

I'm doing great, you know, doing wonderfully.

[Dave DeFore]

I, you know, I see your name all the time. Other people talking about how good you are on podcasts. I, I, I thought you should know that.

[Fred Katz]

Well, that's just proof they're not listening to me on podcast, my friends.

[Dave DeFore]

I don't know if that's true. You're everyone's favorite guest. I mean, you always have something interesting to talk about. You know, you watch everything.

[Fred Katz]

Yeah, I do. I unfortunately watch everything. That if that's your way of saying I don't really have anything better to do, then I guess, oh, well, I guess that part is true. This we'll consider this podcast in that case, my flu game.

[Dave DeFore]

I'm, oh, fighting through it.

[Fred Katz]

I'm ready to go, ready to talk some ball.

[Dave DeFore]

I appreciate you, buddy. I really want to talk about the playoff race with you. You know, again, you watch as much basketball as anybody. What is your, what is your favorite little micro race right now? Is it, is it the west?

[Fred Katz]

4?

[Dave DeFore]

5, 6? Is it OKC San Antonio? I mean, what are you watching right now?

[Fred Katz]

Well, I think you Kind of have to define. You know what? You don't have to define favorite. I'm going to say it is 4, 5, 6 in the west. I'm going to leave the Lakers out of it just because if we get Nuggets Wolves in the first round, no matter who the four and who the five is, that's going to be the first round series. Like that will be the one that those two teams, every single time those two teams play each other, it is an event. The Wolves beat the Nuggets in the playoffs a couple of years ago. They are built even since making the trade for Julius Randle. They are built to guard Nicole Jokic. They are built to go up against that particular type of team. I think I keep thinking that the Nuggets are going to be better than their regular season has shown. Like, I'm not out on the Nuggets. I'm just not out on the Nuggets. So much of their season has just been like, all right, it's been whack a mole. Like Aaron Gordon's been out and then it's like Peyton Watson's not there. And it's like when they have their full go, they are still something to watch. They. But they need Gordon and they need Watson on the way. Yeah, they need those guys.

[Dave DeFore]

There's a thing. So I was reading a friend of mine, John Wilmus over at Real gm, he wrote about the Nuggets kind of being an old team and their average age is like 30. Like their core is like 30 years old. And they feel older though. That's the thing is like even. And I know they've had the injury stuff, but they don't feel as in your face as OKC and San Antonio. You know, they do feel like maybe a team that would be gunning for a title like four years ago, not this new modern. Like you got to have 12 guys and they all got to be interchangeable. You know, everyone in Denver just feels like they have a very particular role and it's starting to make me nervous.

[Fred Katz]

Yeah, I didn't read that jump piece. John is great. He's probably very good. I mean, I think that's a very good thesis and I think the reason why is not necessarily because of age, but more because of style. They in this era, with teams that want to break and play fast and play above the rim, how many guys do they have who play above the rim? Like Aaron Gordon plays above the rim. But Aaron Gordon's also been hurt all year.

[Dave DeFore]

Right.

[Fred Katz]

His hamstring has just been on and off all year. Peyton Watson is, is a really good athlete. He's also been in the lineup. He's played like 50 games for them. Gordon's missed more than half the season. And then you've got these other role players who are not necessarily dudes who are, they're, they're guys who are like masters of pace. Like Jamal Murray has been amazing this year. I have not gone through what my all NBA ballot would be. I have to imagine that he's going to be a lock on there. I. He has been incredible this year and he is a good athlete. But Jamal Murray's mastery, what makes him an all NBA players is his smarts, his kind of deviousness, his intelligence with angles, his ability. I mean him and Jokic are unquestionably, it's not even close. I don't even know who would approach them at second. It's the best two man game in the NBA. And the reason why is because it works both ways, right? Like I think if you look at the list of, of most assisted, most assist combinations, I, I think yo, Murray to Jokic is number one in the league. Or maybe Jokic to Murray is number one.

[Dave DeFore]

Yeah.

[Fred Katz]

And then number two is the opposite, right? It's like they're like literally 1 and 2 or 1 and 3 or something like that. Like they, they're a team that's built on, on chemistry and not necessarily playing above the rim, not necessarily attacking to, to that degree. They're not like a high three point rate team. They're a good free throw rate team but their free throws don't really come. I bet you if you look into the numbers and you look at the ratio of free throws that come off of drives, right? I bet you they have the lowest number in the league. I bet you the most disproportionate number of free throws of them come not off of drives come off of post ups or whatever else.

[Dave DeFore]

Well, that's one of the reasons why Peyton Watson is super interesting to me come playoff time because I do think like his off the dribble stuff and getting to the basket is a nice pace. Like we already saw that in the couple games that he's been back, especially with him and Jokic, their two man game, it has a little bit more lightning to it where he can drive to the basket. So I do think that they've. The depth that they've added this year, it should matter come playoff time. I just, man, I just. This regular season feels kind of fake for them.

[Fred Katz]

It does. Somebody, somebody Asked me a great hypothetical question yesterday that I'm going to pose to you, and then I'll tell you what my answer was. Who were the two realistic teams you could see making the finals that would most inspire takes of the regular season? Doesn't matter anymore.

[Dave DeFore]

Well, Denver for sure.

[Fred Katz]

I said Denver too.

[Dave DeFore]

I mean Houston.

[Fred Katz]

Well, I was thinking one in the east and one in the West.

[Dave DeFore]

Oh, okay. So I mean Denver and I mean Charlotte would be the funniest one.

[Fred Katz]

That would really be that. That wouldn't even necessarily be regular season. Doesn't matter because it's like, yeah, regular season record is. But they, they've been amazing.

[Dave DeFore]

Right.

[Fred Katz]

Since January 1st.

[Dave DeFore]

I'm not sure.

[Fred Katz]

Even though obviously they've got a very good record and they'll win 50 games. Like it's, you know, they've had a disappointing regular season after winning 64.

[Dave DeFore]

Yeah, I mean, well, they, they blew up their young core in the middle of their roster.

[Fred Katz]

Yeah.

[Dave DeFore]

Yeah. And it is, it is kind of weird that, that they still are. I think that a chance at the finals, I mean, James Harden's been awesome for them. So. Okay, we talked Denver, Minnesota, this series. Look, Minnesota built to, to beat the Nuggets. They, they just last, you know, last night they win this big game over the Rockets, which was just insane. Absurd. No. Anthony Edwards. I really believe in the Timberwolves, and part of it is I've just watched them the last couple seasons. I believe in Anthony Edwards. They seem to step up in these big games against big teams. Right. They're just, they're heavyweight fighters, but then they have these games against like the Pelicans and it just falls apart. And you, you know that. I think that that really erodes our trust, but to me is if you pay attention to them in big games, they're always in it. And I don't know, I mean, you think the series, is it like a seven game slobber knocker and it. Would you be surprised if Minnesota beat Denver in round one?

[Fred Katz]

Well, first of all, I would not call it a slobber knocker. Treading on the Hollinger esque innuendo with that one. That's pro wrestling.

[Dave DeFore]

Come on, man.

[Fred Katz]

Okay, so this is how I feel about the Timberwolves, and it's also how I feel about the Knicks because they're the same. Yeah, they made, they made a trade. They traded all star power forwards, slash big men for each other, and then they just cursed each other into being the exact same team forever. Where they will beat anybody, they'll Also play too close with anybody they shouldn't. I feel the same way about the walls I do about the Knicks. You can hold me to this come the playoffs, no matter what, no matter who the Wolves are playing, no matter who the Knicks are playing, whether they are playing the easiest possible opponent you think they could be going up against and that opponent is missing its 12 best players or if they are playing the Thunder And Shea is averaging 50 a game in the playoffs. I will pick every Wolf series and every Knick series to go six or seven no matter what. They, they're just, they're just all going to go six or seven. Easiest opponent, they're going to slip up for two games and it'll just go six ye. Shea is going for 50. OG will just be unbelievable on him or Bridges will be unbelievable on them or McDaniels will be unbelievable on him or anybody else ant will step up whatever else and they'll push OKC to seven games because that is just what these teams do. So do I think that Denver, Minnesota would go seven when every time they play it seems to be just this barn burner of a game or a barn burner of a series? Yes, I do. And I think that that would be a really fun. That would be the first round series. If, if the matchups went as they are today, if nothing changed, that would be the first round series. I would be the most excited to watch. As a basketball fan.

[Dave DeFore]

We're, we're setting up in the east to have Boston in the Knicks in the second round. I, I think the Celtics are better this year. I just think, you know, the big man rotation is, is much improved. They got all these athletic wings. You know, there is going to be a certain amount of. They're going to have to prove it and not turn into a pumpkin come playoff time. But this is, this is going to be to me the series in the East. I, I think the, the finalist comes out of this second round matchup between Boston and New York. How do you think, how do you think Boston handles Mitchell Robinson, especially with the way he's playing right now?

[Fred Katz]

Well, I don't know if there is a person in the NBA who has more respect for Mitchell Robinson than Joe Missoula last year in the playoffs in order to get Mitchell Robinson out of the game. I don't think I've ever, I don't ever remember seeing this in the regular season. Certainly never remember seeing this in the playoffs. It's one thing to go to the hack a strategy with a guy who doesn't shoot three throws. Free throws well, and he's under 50%.

[Dave DeFore]

Yeah.

[Fred Katz]

It's one thing to go to the hack a strategy. Joe Mazzulla was fouling his team into the bonus when they weren't yet in the bonus just to hack Mitchell Robinson, send him to the line and get him out of the game. And then doubled down on it and just kept doing it for the whole series because he was like, they need to get Mitchell Robinson out of the game. And when he was asked about it, he was just flatly saying, yeah, he is a complete game changer. And he was a complete game changer in that series. What does Boston do against Mitchell Robinson? First of all, shouts to Nimi Keita, who I had in my annual all surprise team that published on the Athletic this morning.

[Dave DeFore]

We're going to talk about that after the break.

[Fred Katz]

One of the best surprises in the NBA this year and one of the things that has been like, okay, so if Boston is the most surprising team in the league this year, to me the most surprising development on Boston is the defensive rebounding. We came into the offensive rebounding is like they scheme that. It makes sense that they would be good at that. They crash the boards more aggressively than any other team in the league. If you look at the metrics, their crash rate is like, according to second Spectrum is like way higher than anybody else. I think. Number one crash right in the league right now is Hugo Gonzalez. Number two crash rate in the league right now is Jordan Walsh. Like, they just crash so hard. They are schemed to go get offensive rebounds. They want the offensive rebounds, so they're going to get the offensive rebounds. The first month and a half of the season, they were a bad defensive rebounding team and they changed some things up. Right. They changed their pick and roll coverages a little more drop to keep centers near the basket and that would help rebounding because they were going to be near the basket at the time. Since December 1st, they're second in the league in defensive rebound rate now against Mitchell Robinson. Does that matter? Maybe not.

[Dave DeFore]

Yeah.

[Fred Katz]

If Mitchell Robinson were playing enough minutes, I believe this is still true. If you were playing enough minutes to qualify, he would. He would be about to break the record for highest offensive rebound rate in a single season ever. He is having per minute, arguably the greatest offensive rebounding season ever. He is. He and Stephen Adams were watching two generational offensive rebounders who can completely change the game with one skill. And it's not just the offensive rebounding with Robinson. He's legitimately elite at creating Three pointers off his offensive rebounds. And the Knicks get a lot of threes that way. If you look at the Knicks offense, they're like seventh or eighth in the league in points per chance and you would want that higher with their offensive talent. They're like seventh or eighth in the league in points per chance. But if you go points per possession chance meaning like, you know, first chance, second chance, I refer to second chance points. If you go to points per possession, which accounts for the offensive rebounding, all of a sudden they're top three. A lot of that is Lazar Carl Anthony Towns who has had a great rebounding season, lot as Josh Hart, obviously an incredible amount of that is the fact that they have a center is having the best offensive rebounding season that any of us have seen.

[Dave DeFore]

Right.

[Fred Katz]

Including Moses Malone and Reggie Evans and whoever else you want to say, just the best one there. How does Boston go up against Mitchell Robinson? I think they're probably going to hack him, assuming they play in the second round. I think Keita is going to get super physical with him. I do think part of the Vuchovic trade had to do specifically with Mitchell Robinson.

[Dave DeFore]

Pulling him away from the basketball.

[Fred Katz]

No, not even that. Oh. Like Vuch is. While he is not the player he once was, he's one of the better fundamental box out bigs.

[Dave DeFore]

He's in the league too, by the way. Like, and I think people, people don't realize that because he does shoot so

[Fred Katz]

many threes and he's much bigger than Keda. Keda is very physical, fights very hard, very good box out guy, very good rebounder and he goes and gets the ball and he's very good. Vuch is like more of a carve out rebounder, I would say, where he's able to just stick his behind into a dude and kind of try to back him up. And so what you can do is Mitchell Robinson is one of the very, very rare players in the league who we talk about gravity with offensive shooters all the time. Maybe a guy spacing to the corner and the guy who's guarding him isn't going to help into the lane. Or maybe Stephen Curry is dribbling like a chicken with his head cut off and all five defenders are just following him everywhere. He's running around a screen and everyone's like, oh no, we're Steph. And it pulls defenders in his direction. We talk about gravity in that sense. Mitchell Robinson is one of the few rebounders in the league who has gravity on the offensive boards where teams feel like they actually have to double or triple team him in order to just keep the basketball away from him. And what that does is, number one, it opens up lanes for guys like Josh Hart, who is a chicken with his head cut off, will just crash everywhere and get in. And it opens up lanes for those guys to scurry in and get offensive rebounds. Mikhail Bridges gets about one offensive rebound a game just because of that, where it's like, oh, I'm going to come in. He's got these long arms and he's just going to tap it back out. And that helps the Knicks team offensive rebounding a ton. The other thing that it does is it hurts your. It hurts your defense after the other team gets the offensive rebound. And it doesn't allow the other team to get back in transition too, because you're sending guys in the opposite direction. So what happens is you got three eyes on Mitchell Robinson after, which is part of why he's so good at creating these threes after, because when you got three guys on him, two guys are going to be open. You got one guy, and he knows where to look and he knows the reads. He knows where to look. He knows that he's got the reads down pat.

[Dave DeFore]

Yeah.

[Fred Katz]

And if you've got Vuch with him, if Mitchell Robinson's coming off the bench and you can match Vuch's minutes with him or someone match Booch's minutes with him, maybe you don't have to shade as hard over to Mitch as you would with Keita out there. Even though this is not knock on kata. I mean, you gotta shade people over Mitchell Robinson, no matter who's. I don't care.

[Dave DeFore]

Right.

[Fred Katz]

If Stephen Adams is on him, you gotta bring people over, you know, and so the, the Knicks play Houston next week. And I'm like, oh, I would have loved Adams versus Mitchell Robinson. I mean, that would have been my super.

[Dave DeFore]

That's what it's all about, Fred. That's what everyone would have been buying tickets for.

[Fred Katz]

Dude, boxing out is such a lost art.

[Dave DeFore]

I, I know. And because it was replaced so much by boxing in. Do you know, I mean, you know, the entire schematic change, like shooting, aiming for back rim misses on threes so you get the longer rebound.

[Fred Katz]

Right.

[Dave DeFore]

I mean, the game is so much different now. And that's why it's kind of amazing that, that these guys like Mitchell Robinson. He's been able to carve out an elite role. Like, it's not just like, hey, he comes in on free throws. I mean, you know, this guy is like hugely important to what they do. So I mean, how do you feel like, I mean, Boston is such a. I don't even want to say surprise because it's like they're a good team and they've got good players, but I think the year that they've had has been such a surprise. And the Knicks, you know, we've talked often this season about some of their issues, like is, is this going to look like last year in the playoffs where the Knicks, you know, just can, can run the score up on them with that offense or, or do you feel like Boston's changed enough that, that they can hang with the Knicks?

[Fred Katz]

I don't think you can compare it to last year's series and I don't mean that in a negative or a positive way towards either team. I just think this Boston team is completely different. Yeah, the Knicks beat Boston last year, but number one, I think they're going to play stylistically differently. I think they learned stuff from how they lost games one and two and they blew 20 point leads and started taking ton of threes late and they were settling for stuff and ran bad offense. I'm not saying taking a lot of threes is bad offense. I'm saying the way they took threes in those games was bad offense. I also think this is, I mean this is just a different, this is just a different Celtics team. I mean, there's no Drew Holiday, there's no Al Horford, Nimi Keita is a million times better of a player. They. Jalen Brown is a better player having a better year than he ever has. This is just a different team. They're using Derrick White differently defensively. I mean, Derrick White is guarding the other teams, you know, is guarding really good perimeter players a lot less than he did and has become. I don't want to say become because he was an all defensive player before, but has reached this level of off ball defense that is unmatched obscene amongst anybody who's not seven feet tall. Anybody. It is insane to get legitimate rim protection from your point guard, legitimate rim protection, shot blocking and verticality without fouling from your point guard. There is a larger delta between that skill and the average skill for his position.

[Dave DeFore]

Yeah.

[Fred Katz]

Than maybe any defensive skill for any player in the league, including Wemby. Because Wemby, if you're comparing the average rim protection for a center to Wemby, I think that is a smaller difference than, than the average rim protection for a point guard, which is. He might as well not be there. And Derek White, which is the analytics paint him as like in the same area as like legitimately good rim protecting centers. And you talk to, I've talked to players about it. They're like, yeah, it's insane. I don't understand, I don't understand.

[Dave DeFore]

One of the secrets to their defense, they've got a lot of guys who, who can actually protect the rim. Detroit, you know, Cade Cunningham, he's so good at defending around the rim that it allows them, you know, to, to do a lot of stuff on, on the perimeter.

[Fred Katz]

Yeah, but so Boston I think is a very different team. So I don't know if you can, I think you'd have to evaluate it as this and I think ultimately it'll come down to like, I mean, to be back, you know, so simple. But what's Jason Tatum going to do in this?

[Dave DeFore]

What is Jason Tatum going to do? He looked great last night. Guys, stick around after the break. We're going to talk about Fred's all surprise team and he's going to talk about some guys.

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[Dave DeFore]

Over at the Athletic Fred just published his All Surprise Teams. This is a I don't know. Is this a combination of Most Improved? Is it just names you might not know that came up out of nowhere? What's the criteria that you use to put this team together?

[Fred Katz]

So the way it came about I did the first one last year and the way it came about was because I really thought, first of all, I don't like that the 65 game rule applies to Most Improved. I don't think it should apply to Most Improved. I feel strongly about that specifically for Most Improved. And I thought Norm Powell deserved Most Improved Player last year because of the way that the Clippers used him so differently stylistically. But he played like 61 games and I wasn't going to be able to as a voter vote for Norm Powell because he wasn't eligible. So I was like, you know what, let me. Let me find a way to just be like, here are the guys I actually think improve the most. And I kind of thought of this all NBA version of if MIP had an all NBA version but two teams instead of three because three would just be too long of an article and how can I make kind of an all NBA Most Improved and I call it the All Surprise Team. I somewhat deviate on it from Most Improved, although I kind of hint at how. I'll tell you what, people are going to get angry about who I don't have or do have or whatever else. I'll tell you in some ways, the difference between this and MIP is not very scientific to me. It's just like. Yeah, was I really that surprised? Like, like, like I got, I got a comment on there being like a very nice comment, but just being like, I'm a Hornets fan and I would have loved to see Musa Diabate on here and Musa Diabate was on my list. Yeah, he was on my list. And, and I, he's been so great. And he was on a two way contract last year.

[Dave DeFore]

Yeah.

[Fred Katz]

And now he is like a legitimately good big man for a team that is also legitimately good. And he's imperative to them.

[Dave DeFore]

And he tied that starting lineup together.

[Fred Katz]

Yes. He's. He's awesome and he's so fun to watch. And then I was like, you know what? Last year, even when I was on a two way contract, I have my Friday weekly notes column and I wrote a note about how Moussa Diabate is the most fun rebounder in the NBA and wrote about why it was the most fun rebounder in the NBA. And I was like, I can't really say that I was that surprised if I wrote this last year. So I'm cutting them. Totally unscientific. Completely unscientific. That's why most of the abate is not there.

[Dave DeFore]

Yeah, it's vibes. There's.

[Fred Katz]

There's just something to. You know it when you see it. You know, like I, Denny Avdia is. I, I wrote this in the story. Denny Abdia is going to have a ton of MIP votes. He has been fantastic this year. Assuming that he's, he's eligible there. Like he's going to have a ton of MIP votes and I have no problem with any of those MIP votes, but I didn't put him on the all surprise team because he averaged like 23, 10 and 6.

[Dave DeFore]

He's been good.

[Fred Katz]

Last year.

[Dave DeFore]

He was good in, in Washington. You know, this was.

[Fred Katz]

He wasn't this good in Washington.

[Dave DeFore]

Sure. But he was already a good player and he, and he was young. I get it. Let's talk about the team. What's your first team? First team, all surprise. Fred Katz. All surprise team. This is a prestigious honor.

[Fred Katz]

We're hoping to get it there. All right, so the first team is Jalen Duran, Nikhil Alexander Walker, AJ Mitchell, Nimi Keda and Jalen Tyson.

[Dave DeFore]

I love it with Duran. I mean, you know, he's got the pedigree to be this player. He now has a shot at all NBA, which completely throws a wrench into the Pistons future plans. What was it about him that stood out between last year and this year to you?

[Fred Katz]

To me the ultimate thing. And look like Durham was a lottery pick and has been tremendously physically talented since the second he stepped onto the court. But he was this incredibly picked on defender. I mean the game plan against the Pistons as recently as last year in the playoffs, the game plan against the Pistons was throw Jalen Duran into pick and rolls. Throw him into pick and rolls, run picking rolls at him. You pull him away from the basket, he's not going to be that good. Rim protection wise not that good. The eye test said not that good. The analytics said not that good. In some cases quite bad. And Jalen Duran to his credit didn't sit there saying I mis evaluated I'm wrong. He went into last summer and was like everybody and I spoke to Jalen Darren for a story earlier this year. Can I curse on this or no?

[Dave DeFore]

No.

[Fred Katz]

Children's show said no more said his quote was that his mentality going into the off season was no more. No more of this being picked on stuff and he started studying way more film. He changed his body which you would never in a million years look at Jalen Dern and be like like my follow up question was like were you out of shape? Like you. And he laughed and he was like it wasn't that I was out of shape but I had to change the shape that I was in because his conditioning needed to be better just so he could be in a defensive stance all the time. And defensively now I think that is the most consequential given where the Pistons are especially in the standings. I think the most consequential improvement for any particular skill in the league this year is Jalen Duran's defense in general, where he went from the guy who was picked on who was the weak point to now Detroit, which builds its defense from the inside out, has 48 minutes of rim protection between him and Isaiah Stewart, who is also an excellent rim protector. Now Duran is a legitimately good rim protector. He has legitimately improved guarding pick and pop centers which was a huge problem with him before and the Pistons noticed that early. I have a little tidbit in the story about early in the season when they played the Bucks and the Pistons worked on this coverage that they call gold with him all the time, which is when run a pick and roll at the center and Duran's guarding the screener. Endurance has to kind of follow and show on the ball handler. So that means follow that ball handler as he comes around the screen and then once the pass comes out to the screener who's popping, he's got to rush all the way back to that screener and close out. And he had this pick and pop against or Miles Turner had this pick and pop against him when they played the Bucks and he guarded it perfectly. And I know there were people on the Pistons bench who were like, oh yeah, that, that is the best. That is. That is it like that. There we go. Like that's what you've been working on all summer. There we go. Like that was perfect and it was a good contest. And he cut off the drive from Ryan Rollins with 32 in the previous game and he closed out. Doesn't sound that impressive given where the Bucks are right now, but that was like, that was like a, the thing he struggled with and they were like whoa. And he's just been doing that all year. Yeah, that kind of stuff, the nitty gritty stuff. He's unbelievably physical on top of the fact that he's expanded his offensive game. Right. He's handling the ball more and set of post moves and yeah, he's add to his face up game and like

[Dave DeFore]

he's been a true number two for them on offense in my opinion. I mean I just think like he's a guy, you know, you watch him, he gets double teams now that Cade's out. Like you have to. He's a guy you have to pay attention to.

[Fred Katz]

And how's he. And how's. How's he done by the way?

[Dave DeFore]

Honestly, he's been amazing. I. I open it.

[Fred Katz]

He's going nuts. I think he's the MIP favorite.

[Dave DeFore]

Yeah. I have a comp for you on one of your guys. Jaylen Tyson. Dylan Brooks. He's got a little Dylan Brooks in him and I, and I mean this as a, as a compliment, I think that he has been good for the Cavs.

[Fred Katz]

It's.

[Dave DeFore]

It's odd to say but like he's kind of added toughness to the Cavs as a rookie and they have needed a guy like this. Not just that he can shoot 40% from three, but he like he has an edge to him. I really, I like fell in love with Jaylon Tyson this season. He was fantastic.

[Fred Katz]

Me too. Me too. I think he is, he is going to be a heck of a player. He has such a, a sophisticated game for a second year guy. Especially one who like didn't play as a rookie. Such a mature game. I didn't write about this in the story, because I had mentioned it in one of my notes columns earlier this year and I didn't want to regurgitate. But one of the things that he does, which is just so veteran because he looks. Could you ever think that he was a dude? Like, how many total minutes did he play last season? I mean, did he play. He played 453 minutes last year. Like, did you ever. Could you ever guess when you watch his game, how mature his game is? You want to talk about looking old, but in the good way.

[Dave DeFore]

Yeah.

[Fred Katz]

Like, could you ever guess that Guy had played 453 NBA minutes coming into this year? 453. Professional.

[Dave DeFore]

Amazing.

[Fred Katz]

He is really. I don't know if I see. Do you see the Dylan Brooks thing? Stuff more defensively, you mean?

[Dave DeFore]

No, no, it's, it's a vibe thing. And, and part of it is defense, but it's just the willing shooter. He's got this, this mentality that is just like he's the best player on the court, even though he's clearly not. And I just, he's got like a bulldog sort of thing to him. You know, I mean, it's. When we talk about Dylan Brooks and the mentality that he brings to a team and what, what they lack when he leaves, I feel like Jaylon Tyson is going to be one of those guys.

[Fred Katz]

Yeah. I mean my, my, my, my little nugget in that story is about when he scored 39 in a game against the Sixers earlier this year and he had the game winning assist and he scored 39 on 13 for 17 shooting. And he will. One of the things he does, he's very close with Donovan Mitchell and Donovan Mitchell had a total off night that night. He had like 13, 14 points, wasn't shooting the ball well and Tyson saved him in a game against the Sixers. They won by two. He was, I mean, 39 on 17 shots is 13 for 17 is crazy. That's insane.

[Dave DeFore]

Yeah.

[Fred Katz]

I think he's seven for nine from three and he was talking about that game and he turned to Donovan Mitchell and he said I'm the number one option now.

[Dave DeFore]

And yeah, again, I like, I didn't even know that story. That tracks for me.

[Fred Katz]

Yeah. And he was clearly, clearly joking, to be clear. Clearly joking around. But he's held so many different roles for them this year. One of the, the coolest Jalen Tyson thing is, is, and this is what I was going to say earlier is he turns, cuts into crashes. That's the coolest Jalen Tyson thing I talked to him about that. I didn't, I didn't write it my thing. But he said he learned that in college. He went to three schools. I forget which school he said. I think he said Texas Tech maybe. I forget which school he said he learned it at. But he turns cuts into crashes. So he'll be cutting and if a shot goes up, he will then mid cut deviate into it being a crash. He is. The Cavs crash the boards hard. We were talking about the Celtics. The Cavs are similar, though not at that level in terms of just how often they do it. But Jaylon Tyson is like their best crasher. He just is like loose ball hound. He's good in the short role. He's a good passer. He's a good secondary creator. He's shooting 46% from three. He guards wings, he starts, he comes off the bench. It's like this dude is doing everything and I feel like I don't want to be like, I don't want to look at him and be like, this guy's a supercharged role player. I think right now he's a supercharged role player. I don't know. I'm watching him, man, and I'm like, is there a world where this guy is just like legitimately awesome? Like, like it's his second year. Like, yeah. Look at the progression from year one to two. Is he, is he going to be like, There are a number of times where I've watched him this year, I'm like, oh, like, is this guy going to be like, like actually like, like,

[Dave DeFore]

like he might be an elite catch and shoot guy already. He can defend like crazy. I mean, he's going to be on the court, right? So now it's just, what, what does the development off the dribble look like for him?

[Fred Katz]

Right? But even, even if the development of the dribble off the dribble become comes like fine enough, Is he going to be so awesome at so many other things that like we're just like, oh, okay, like, is this guy going to make all star teams? Is that in the cards for him? Like, I know that's a crazy hot take. Yeah, it probably is based on the way people talk about him. But like, I don't know. I can't, I, I, I can't lie. I have thought that multiple times while watching Jaylon Tyson this year. Like, I don't know. This is, he's 23, so it's not like he's a 20 year old second year player, but we talk about 23. Sometimes like it's 58. Like 23 is still 23. You know, like he's really good.

[Dave DeFore]

I mean, I think that we're gonna find out a lot in the playoffs because they're gonna need him actually. Like they're, they're gonna need everything that he does. I just don't, I don't know if I trust their other wings as much as I trust Jalen Tyson. So I think we'll, we'll learn a lot. Your second team, Ryan Rollins, Colin Gillespie, Keante, George Anthony Black, Peyton Watson. Who is the biggest surprise on your second team?

[Fred Katz]

Probably, probably Ryan Rollins. I just had no idea Ryan Rollins was capable of doing this. The off the dribble stuff this year has just been at another level. The step back has been the Bucks bailout shot. Especially when Giannis is out late in possessions. He kind of gets that like, that like four seconds left in the possession. Chris Middleton, give it to him sort of thing. And he's kind of that new guy and shooting like 40% on off the three dribbles, which is top 10 in the NBA. He had taken 20 pull up threes in his entire career coming into this year. On top of the fact that, and this is less of a surprise because he's always been a good defender, but he's a very, he's a very good defender. His defense has, has held up against. Sometimes I think we go too far in the other direction to look against the counting stats. So like, you know, he's averaging 17 points a game. Last year he averaged 6 points a game. And you look at that, you're like, oh my goodness, what an improvement. And then comes the counter argument. Well, it's just the minutes and the opportunity, it's. And then you look at the per 36 minute numbers and you're like, he's barely averaging more points than he did when he was at averaging six minutes. When he was averaging six points. He's barely averaging more points for 36 minutes. He's barely averaging more assists. Is he really improved or is it just opportunity? And what gets overlooked being able to

[Dave DeFore]

maintain it at the volume is the thing. It's 100%. That minutes argument is. It's always frustrating, man, because a guy can come in, play seven hard minutes, take two threes and. Okay, great. Yo, you're, you're 42% three point shooter on two a game. Do it on 10.

[Fred Katz]

Yeah. And the other part of it too is that production was coming against reserves and third stringers.

[Dave DeFore]

Right.

[Fred Katz]

That production was coming against backups in, you know, the early second quarter.

[Dave DeFore]

He's probably not on the scouting report.

[Fred Katz]

Exactly. He's not even on the scout. That's a great point too. He's not even on the scouting report. Like, he's not even in the rotation. He's not in the scouting report. And if he is on the scouting report, if it's a super in depth scouting report with all 18 guys on the scouting report, guess what? It's the portion of the scouting report that especially in a regular season game, none of the players are going that far deep. Like, that's just not happening. No one's turning to that page. It's not happening. No one's wasting their time doing that. They're like, this is too much information. I can only pretend so much because I'm a human being and I am, I am going to know as much as I can about the guys who I need to know about. And if Ryan Rollins is in this game, it's not going to be important enough to, to matter anyway.

[Dave DeFore]

Yeah.

[Fred Katz]

And the other part of it is like he was going up against these, these reserves and second, you know, third stringers, and now he's doing it against starters. Like, he's maintaining these numbers against starters. He's maintaining the defensive intensities or he's really good in passing lanes. I, I, he's, he's won them some games. I struggled with Rollins and I struggled with Keonte George because those guys have obviously gotten better. But I also am like, especially with Utah, I'm like, they're not playing real basketball, you know, like, they're not playing real basket. This is not real basketball. But Keonte George's advancements were so obvious and I could talk about it in the context of, of real basketball and I was like, you gotta acknowledge that. And with Ryan Rollins, you know, Ryan Rollins is, was playing real basketball, but also it like not real basketball in a different kind of way where, you know, everything for this season has been to play Kate Giannis, who's been in and out of the lineup. And you know, they've, they've just, it's

[Dave DeFore]

been a weird ball here in Milwaukee. I mean, like, Ryan Rollins is the bright spot of their entire season, right?

[Fred Katz]

Yeah. Yes, yes. Without, yeah, without question. Is there another bright spot?

[Dave DeFore]

I don't think so. Okay, quickly, before we go, Keonte George, you just mentioned him. The biggest thing for me with him is that he can get by guys now. Like, no one can stay in front of him. And that wasn't what it looked like previously. And I'm not sure what it was. What's the difference? Like whether it was training? Maybe he had an injury that we didn't know about or you know, there was some limiter. But that has opened up the floor for that entire team. It's why they have to keep shutting him down. He's too good to not create good looks on offense. And these are NBA shooters. I'm thinking about next season when it's him, Lowry, Markkanen and Jaren Jackson. I mean they kind of have a team. Especially if he can maintain this level of play. Like Keonte George. You see him as like a future all star.

[Fred Katz]

The west is tough. I mean, it's on the table. He's 20 points a year.

[Dave DeFore]

Yeah, yeah.

[Fred Katz]

Like it's, it's on the table. I mean, I will, I will give you some credit here where I wasn't sure what to write on Keonte George. I was like, what is, what's the interesting angle? Because I try not to make it just like a generic, generic. The points have gone up. Like I try to find some interesting, specific thing about their game. Wasn't sure what to do. And you were the one who made this point to me of like, go look at like how he's getting by guys. He's getting by guys so much more this year. And you're totally right. And I watched a bunch of Keonte George stuff and I was like, it's not just that he's getting by guys more, it's also what he's doing once he gets by guys. So with him and with another guy who I had in the team, Anthony Black, the biggest change to me is is their ability to play with pace. And it remind you've seen Bull Durham, I assume.

[Dave DeFore]

Yeah, of course.

[Fred Katz]

You know like that whole movie is about a catcher teaching a pitcher how to pitch with pace. You know, how to live with pace. That's that whole movie. Breathe through your eyelids, right? That's the, that's the whole, the whole movie. Nuke Lelouch throws 99 miles an hour and all he does is just try to throw 99 miles an hour. You know, Randy Johnson didn't become Randy Johnson until he learned how to paint some corners and incorporate the slider better

[Dave DeFore]

and that circle change that he developed.

[Fred Katz]

There you go.

[Dave DeFore]

Yeah.

[Fred Katz]

And then all of a sudden he went from this guy is dynamic and walks way too many guys and has an ERA in the high threes to oh well, this is the best left handed pitcher we've ever seen in Dirt Killer.

[Dave DeFore]

Yeah.

[Fred Katz]

And Bird killer, the best left handed pitcher I've ever seen. And so that's what happens when you learn how to play with pace. And Keonte George and Anthony Black have learned to play with pace but in different ways. So with Keonte George I think a lot of it happens when guys are already on his back. So he gets by and he's been very, very good at keeping defenders on his hip. And with that he's able to draw fouls, which his foul rate is way up. His free throw rate is 43% which means he shoots 0.43 free throws per field goal attempt. It's a very high number, significantly higher than last year when he was at like 30 and as a rookie when he was in the 20s. It's a huge leap and it's because of that ability to play with pace and also finish through physicality. He is a better passer out of those situations because he keeps his defenders behind him and that's a huge thing. Ironically, you know who else has gotten way better at that specific skill? And I'm really just thinking about it right now as Keyshawn George has gotten way better. Way better that specific skill.

[Dave DeFore]

Another guy who probably was on the bubble for your all surprise team. There were this One of the most fun things about the NBA developing into a league that is about depth is that I think that we're going to get more and more of these guys that seemingly come out of nowhere because the talent level is extremely high. Like the talent curve in the NBA has flattened over the last 20 years and now like there's just no bums out there. I don't know if there's enough to to hold up to adding two expansion teams, but that'll be a Fred Katz conversation for another day when we get another chance to do this because we've gone so long. Thank you Fred for hanging out. Guys, go and read his all surprise team article over at the Athletic. And number one, it's a fun read but also you're going to learn about some guys that you may not have had a chance to really see all that much. And I don't know, it's eye opening. Fred, one of the best sports writers in America. Thank you very much for Fred Katz. I'm Dave DeFore. This has been the NBA Daily. Thanks for waking up with us. Thanks for listening. Make sure you hit the subscribe or follow button so you never miss an episode. If you enjoyed it. Drop a like leave a rating or let us know in the comments. Thank you guys for waking up with us.

[Pablo Torre]

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