What is wrong with the Cleveland Cavaliers?

Summary

The Athletic NBA Daily – December 19, 2025 Episode Theme: What is Wrong with the Cleveland Cavaliers?

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Overview

In this episode, Dave DuFour, Fred Katz, and Esfandiar Baraheni break down the New York Knicks' recent NBA Cup win and pivot to a deep exploration of the Cleveland Cavaliers' mounting struggles during the 2025 season. The show analyzes what’s not working for the Cavs, the implications of their roster and injury challenges, and how league-wide dynamics—like the Oklahoma City Thunder's dominance—are freezing trade movement across the NBA.

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Key Discussion Points

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1. Knicks’ NBA Cup Win and Banner Debate

Timestamps: 02:45 – 11:32

• The crew opens with light banter about the NBA Cup, the Knicks’ celebration, and whether a banner for the win should be hung at Madison Square Garden.
• Fred Katz: “At MSG, how are you going to have room? Where’s it going to go, between Harry Styles and Billy Joel?...I don’t think the cup is quite on that level yet.” (05:29)
• Commentary on owner James Dolan refusing to be part of the trophy presentation, stemming from a “beef” with the league.
• Reflection on the emotional toll of the Cup: CARL Anthony Towns and Mitchell Robinson both suffered from overexertion during the high-intensity game, impacting their availability afterward.
• Fred Katz: “If you put a $530,000 carrot in front of me, I’m going for that thing." (08:01)

Notable Moment: The crew notes the Cup adds a playoff-like energy to the season, but its lingering effects—like injuries and fatigue—raise questions about whether teams are burning themselves out too early.

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2. Knicks as Eastern Conference Favorites; Transition to Cavs’ Troubles

Timestamps: 11:36 – 12:45

• The Knicks’ strong play is juxtaposed with skepticism about other East contenders, like the young Pistons and the heavily hyped but struggling Cavaliers.

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3. Dissecting the Cavaliers’ Struggles

Timestamps: 12:45 – 18:43

Performance Decline:

• The Cavs’ slide from the league’s best offense in 2024 to “11th in points per possession and 13th in points allowed.” (12:46)
• Dave DuFour: “They’re 15 and 13 right now…Garland’s been completely banged up, Jared Allen and Evan Mobley just don’t feel as good this year…Donovan Mitchell’s been amazing at scoring but that’s about the only bright spot.” (12:28)

Mobley and Allen’s Fit:

• Fred Katz: “Jared Allen is not playing a lot of these fourth quarters…It makes you wonder about the viability of this group long term together. The greatest flaw a basketball team can have is if it can’t reach its best when its best players are on the floor.” (13:18, 14:51)

Regression & Injuries:

• Emphasis on Darius Garland’s absence: “Not having Garland is one of the...not talked about enough...I think that is number one on the list by far.” (14:52)
• Evan Mobley’s offensive regression and waning confidence.
• The domino effect: Garland’s creation was key to last season’s offensive success. Without him, the team’s three-point quality drops off and offensive flow stalls.

Notable Quote:

• Fred Katz: “Mitchell is their best player. And he’s great. But Garland last year was the one who ran the show…and he ran the show for the offense that was the most efficient offense in the NBA in the fourth quarters too.” (17:58–18:08)

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4. What’s Next for Cleveland? Trade & Cap Constraints

Timestamps: 23:17 – 26:37

Recent Failures:

• Breaking down the Cavs’ ugly recent losses to struggling teams like the Bulls, Hornets, and Warriors (without their stars).
• Lack of depth exposed following injuries and rotation changes. Ty Jerome’s departure and Lonzo Ball’s underperformance are notable gaps.

Cap Realities:

• Fred Katz: “They’re the only team in the league over the second apron…It becomes incredibly difficult to make these kinds of moves because they’re not allowed to trade more than one player in the same deal…There are all of these restrictions.” (25:00–25:38)
• Trading Jared Allen is discussed, but the crew doubts his return value is enough to improve the team.

Trade Market Outlook:

• Many teams, not just the Cavs, will try to get under the tax, further limiting trade partners and options.
• Significant roster moves for Cleveland are unlikely until the offseason.

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5. The Thunder’s Dominance and the “Frozen” Trade Market

Timestamps: 26:54 – 34:36

Psychological Effect:

• Teams are reportedly hesitating to make big moves (“keep the powder dry”) as the Thunder look “maybe unbeatable”—drawing KD Warriors comparisons.
• Fred Katz: “Are the Thunder so good that it’s not really worth going all in...because it won’t make a difference in terms of winning a title?” (27:16)

Thunder’s Assets and Youth:

• Deep dive into OKC’s jaw-dropping stockpile of picks and young talent.
• Fred Katz: “This is a loaded roster which could get even more loaded. So maybe it’s the time to actually go in…this is not the peak for [the Thunder].” (30:35, 31:14)

Opportunity vs. Caution:

• Even with a juggernaut like OKC, playoff series (injuries, upsets) can flip the narrative—referencing the 2019 Raptors as an example.
• Fred Katz: “Scared money don’t make none...Preparation and opportunity—when they meet, it looks a lot like luck.” (34:24–34:36)

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Memorable Quotes

• “The greatest flaw a basketball team can have is if it can’t reach its best when its best players are on the floor.” – Fred Katz (14:51)
• “Garland last year was the one who ran the show…for the offense that was the most efficient offense in the NBA in the fourth quarters.” – Fred Katz (17:58)
• “They’re over the second apron…There are all these restrictions…They can’t trade with any team over the first apron. So all those teams are off the table.” – Fred Katz (25:00–25:38)
• “Are the Thunder so good that it’s not really worth going all in with what we have right now?” – Fred Katz (27:16)
• “Scared money don’t make none...Preparation and opportunity—when they meet, it looks a lot like luck.” – Fred Katz (34:24–34:36)

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Segment Timestamps

• Knicks’ NBA Cup Win & Banner Debate: 02:45–11:32
• Knicks as Finals Favorites, Cavs Underwhelm: 11:36–12:45
• Cavs’ Performance Breakdown: 12:45–18:43
• Cavs’ Trade & Cap Problems: 23:17–26:37
• Thunder’s Impact on the Market: 26:54–34:36

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Conclusion

This episode provides a thorough, candid look at why the Cleveland Cavaliers have faltered: key injuries (especially to Darius Garland), the regression and awkward fit of Evan Mobley and Jared Allen, and limited flexibility due to salary cap constraints. The hosts also frame the league’s lethargic trade outlook by detailing how the Thunder’s rise has dampened other contenders’ appetite for big, midseason moves. Through it all, listeners get both sharp analysis and plenty of humor, making the episode engaging for any NBA fan—especially those wondering what’s truly “wrong” in Cleveland.

Transcript

[Andrew Schlecht]

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[Fred Katz]

Good morning and welcome to the NBA Daily for December 19, 2025. I'm Dave Defor here with Fred Katz and Esperahenny. We're going to talk about the Knicks winning the cup because it means more talk about the Cavs and what's wrong with them. And are the Thund going to kill the trade deadline? What's up, everybody? Welcome back to the show. We're home from Vegas. NBA cup excitement. Fred Katz, we didn't see you in Vegas.

You didn't?

No.

You didn't.

You don't respect the cup?

Honestly, I think it's a little invoked to defile the cup. Is this right? I'm kind of pro defiling the cup.

Oh, so wrong. You respect the cup.

I'm gonna zag when everybody else.

[Dave Defor]

A lot of defiling the cup the last couple days on this show, you know?

[Fred Katz]

Yeah, I mean, look. I mean, Josh. Josh Hart defiled the cup celebration, so why can't I defile the cup?

Well, all right. Let's talk about the Knicks. They did just win the NBA Cup. That was a really fun game. That there will never be proof. Well, do we want to start with that? How come they're not going to hang the banner? And is this going to open up the door for like. Like the Lakers are going to take that thing down. Right.

So I'm going to take you just through the timeline. Okay. I'm not going to tell you why they're not going to hang it. I'm just going to take you through the timeline. So none of our reporters, not me, ask the players leading up to the. The cup final, do you think if you win, you should hang a banner? Everybody seemed to be fine with it. Mike Brown, you think you should hang a banner? Fine with it. Everybody's fine with it. Knicks received the trophy. Mike Brown receives the trophy. Jalen Brownson receives the trophy. They all celebrate. They all seem genuinely excited that they won.

Yeah.

James Olin does not accept the trophy on the court.

[Dave Defor]

Yeah, he wasn't part of the cause. Usually it's the. The owner that comes and accepts that.

[Fred Katz]

Which is silly.

Yeah, it is silly.

[Dave Defor]

Yeah, I agree.

[Sequoia Capital Podcast Host]

Yeah.

[Fred Katz]

But it was notable that James Dolan didn't do it because James Olen has had a very public, we'll say kerfuffle. No, it's not a kerfuffle. A kerfuffle is quick.

Yeah.

Yeah.

This is a beef.

[Dave Defor]

This is.

[Fred Katz]

This is a Beef.

A grudge.

Beef with the league pretty quickly with Adam Silver. Mike. Mike Vanov wrote a great story last year, kind of detailing so much of what goes on there. And then the Knicks didn't hang the banner, even though the league has made it very clear to champions of the past that you got to hang the banner in order to show that we're legitimizing this thing.

[Dave Defor]

The Lakers and Bucks. I remember there was a little bit of controversy about whether people made fun of wouldn't actually.

[Fred Katz]

Yeah, right. And I, to be fair, though, in the rafters at msg, how are you going to have room? Where. Where's it going to go between Harry Styles and Billy Joel? I don't know, man. I don't think that the cup is quite on that level yet.

That's true.

I mean, you know, at least you should sick. Like, it is a thing that they won. And I thought Mike Brown, like, after the game, he said, hey, I don't care what anybody says. If there's something where you lose and go home, if you win it, it feels pretty good. And these guys looked happy. Carl Anthony Towns, I watched him walk out of the arena with the. The trophy in his hands.

[Dave Defor]

So he was very happy. Yeah.

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Yeah.

[Fred Katz]

Great. Now may I defile the cup?

Do it.

[Dave Defor]

File.

[Fred Katz]

Yeah, I will defile this thing. Carl Anthony Towns played well in that game. Had a couple of incredibly adventurous passes. Maybe the best pass I've ever seen him.

[Dave Defor]

Oh, that one Dave called the travel, by the way. Anyway, sorry, go ahead.

[Fred Katz]

No, there. There. There is an. There should be an unspoken rule in basketball, which is if what you did was incredibly awesome, it should.

[Dave Defor]

That exists. I think that is cool.

[Fred Katz]

That exists.

[Dave Defor]

Yeah.

[Fred Katz]

Yeah.

If it's cool.

That was more than cool. That pass OG Was insanity. Carl Anthony Towns played well in that game. Mitchell Robinson had 10 offensive rebounds in 18 minutes.

Yeah.

[Dave Defor]

Very well. Yeah.

[Fred Katz]

Guess who's not playing tonight in Indiana when the Knicks are there? Carl Anthony Towns and Mitchell Robinson. Yeah, Towns got hurt in that game. Mitchell Robinson looked gassed. Mitch has been on a very strict resting plan this whole season. The Knicks have insisted he's not injured, but he was. He played 18 minutes in the first half of the first preseason game, and now all of a sudden has played. Only. Has played 20 minutes only twice all season as past 20 minutes.

[Dave Defor]

Yeah, they've learned his sweet spot is like under 20 minutes. Absolutely.

[Fred Katz]

Yes. For sure. Played him in a game that doesn't count in the final. Now he's not playing in this one. That does count against. Against Indiana. This is first half of a back to back. Mitchell Robinson doesn't play on back to back. I'm sure he'll play on Friday. So I think he would have been out for this game regardless. My, my, my, my point here. Towns Towns got hurt, came back in now is out tonight. Let's just, let's just remember what happens. Like what can happen here.

Yeah. You know, like cup might mean too much that maybe we're under something too much.

Look, it's. If you put a $530,000 carrot in front of me, I'm going for that thing. So this is not like a judgment to the players or anything? No, close to that. Totally with you. I'm just saying it's like it's. It's. It's a bit of a. An emotionally rough situation to go through. It's a little playoffs E. It is. You're a week ish. Little less five days in Las Vegas which just is. Eliminates. Eliminates any amount of soul you might have had.

Absolutely.

[Dave Defor]

As you can see on me and Dave's face.

[Fred Katz]

Yes, absolutely.

Right. 100%. You guys, this isn't even real you. This is just AI I'm talking to you. You guys are out.

Yeah. It's actually AI powered by AI Allen Iverson is doing the direction less than.

48 hours after tipping off in Vegas on Tuesday. And what was a really hard played like well played fun game. I'm not knocking these existence of the cup. I'm saying that like it's. I think it's working as the NBA intended it to work. But like less than 48 hours later the spurs and the Knicks are tipping off in other games and it's like Knicks have a back to back, a road home. Back to back. Right out of this life goes on.

[Dave Defor]

Yeah, exactly.

[Fred Katz]

We're already.

You have to be like oh damn, wait, the season's not over. Is already all star break. Or we just tried really hard to do this thing and now we don't have CAT for a regular season game.

On our programming sheet we're looking at these two teams to see which one of them stinks coming out of the cup. I mean like this is built. We know that this is. It throws teams off. And I will say I. I think that you know when they get rid of the. The neutral site for the semis and you know whatever they wind up doing with the final, if they come up with a better way to do that to. To soften the travel blow, I think that's going to help with this Stuff. But the I and but you respect the cup itself. That's. That's the important part here, Fred, is that the games just mean more. So I just from the.

[Dave Defor]

From a banner perspective, can I say, obviously, as you guys know, the Knicks have not won much in the last 50 years. Would have been cool. Would have been cool for them to like put this thing up and actually celebrate because you don't know if you're going to win the championship. And look, the Oklahoma City Thunder are pretty good cases. You probably won't win the championship.

[Fred Katz]

You know.

S. You have never sounded more Canadian to me.

[Dave Defor]

It's not like it's a second place trophy.

[Fred Katz]

So pure of heart. Yeah, it would be cool. You accomplished something. Congratulations. I'm just saying, as a New Yorker means nothing. As somebody who was raised by cynical New York Jewish parents, New Yorkers are going to have some attitude about hanging a banner that's not a title. Even though Knicks fans are insanely loyal, unbelievably dedicated to the cause, do not ever run away from that team, no matter how low they stay.

[Dave Defor]

That celebrated a first round series win against. You know what I mean? Like you want to. Right?

[Fred Katz]

I just freak.

The bing bong moment came. People think the bing bong moment came after some huge moment. Came after an opening night win over the Boston Celtics during a 37 win season.

[Dave Defor]

Yeah, I feel like that's the exact type of franchise banner up.

[Fred Katz]

Well, they didn't hang a bing bong banner.

[Dave Defor]

To be fair.

[Fred Katz]

Maybe they didn't.

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Okay.

[Fred Katz]

Banner they call it.

Let's move on from the Knicks because there's a team that has not been. Been looking good. And I think we all agree the Knicks right now, they're probably the. The front runners for the finals in the East. They're the best team in the East. You know, we just. The Pistons, they're young and we just don't. We need to see them do it. But the Cavs are a bit of. I'm not going to say, I'm going to say a surprise, but also a disappointment because this was supposed to be the season, you know, last year they, they get the new coach, they have this incredible regular season, they fail in the playoffs in the exact same way that they did the previous season. And this was the year where they were supposed to figure out this new identity. What was the thing that leveled them up. And guys like they've just taken step steps back like they're going in the wrong direction. Some of it is health. Right. Garland's been just completely banged Up Jared Allen and Evan Mobley. I just don't feel like they've been as good this year when they've been out there together. Donovan Mitchell has been pretty amazing at scoring, but that's about the only bright spot I would say, for. For them this season. I mean, you know, they're 15 and 13 right now. Fred, what. What the heck is wrong with the Cavs, man?

Well, the thing that really stands out to me is after last year being the best team in the league offensively, they're 11th right now in points per possession and they're 13th in points allowed for possession. Yeah, like, don't get me wrong, that's not a bad team, but it's not just before win team.

Jared Allen and Evan Mobley, you think that built in. That's a top eight defense.

Yeah, yeah. And. And right now it's 13th there. Jared Allen is not playing in a lot of these fourth quarters.

Yeah.

What. What seemed like, you know, two years ago when the Cavs go 48 and 34 and they have this like 48 and 34 is a good record, but it was after a 51 win season and you're expecting them to take a bit of a jump and they go 48 and 34. They underwhelm. It doesn't look right. They have a lot of injuries throughout the course of the season. And the thing that really looks the worst from a. How is this group going to continue together? Standpoint is that Evan Mobley and Jared Allen are pretty rarely on the court together in the most important moments.

[Dave Defor]

A lot of staggering fourth quarter.

[Fred Katz]

Starting that first round playoff series against Orlando, which they won. Fourth quarters in that series, fourth quarters during the ensuing series against Boston. Really, even the second half of the season, during the regular season, they're kind of choosing one or the other to close the game more often. Mobley last year, Kenny Atkinson comes in as head coach and they kind of iron out a lot of those issues. And those guys play together and play together really well, and they close a lot of games together. Guess what's happening right now. Jared Allen is sitting for a lot of fourth quarters. It's going back to that issue that they had before that I don't want to say it was solved, but was. It was bogged way down the list of issues. It's. It's rising up again. And it makes you wonder about the viability of this group long term together. Because ultimately the greatest flaw a basketball team can have is if it can't reach its best when its best players are on the floor.

Yeah.

You want to be able to be at your best when your best players are out there. And right now, the Cavs are struggling in that. Now, I think not having Garland is one of the. I don't think it's talked about enough. Yeah, just all the stuff Garland's going through, I think that is number one on the list by far.

[Dave Defor]

He's also had some weird injuries, like, so many strange injuries. I remember, Fred, we've talked about how, like, OG had a history of just very strange injuries. Garland kind of has the same history. If you look at it.

[Fred Katz]

Well, it's like he picks up these little. If what seems like it should be like a bang or a bruise.

Right.

Like a toe. And he's out for two weeks, you know, I mean, and part of that, it's the way he plays, you know, I mean, he. He needs to be up on his feet and he's running around and all that off ball movement, but I mean, sometimes you just need him on the court. I actually think one of the things that's a little underreported, I mean, Evan Mobley as an offensive player, he's not only stalled out from what we saw last year, I mean, he's regressed. He's not shooting the ball nearly as confidently, in my opinion. He's not really looking for his own shot in the same way that. That he kind of showed that growth last year. We don't really think about Evan Mobley the same so far this year. You know, if you consider how we felt about him going into last season, this season, I felt the exact opposite. I don't feel that he's been nearly the force defensively that he has been. And this was a guy that we thought was going to be their franchise player. And he's.

I don't.

I don't think he's that guy.

Well, look, a huge part of their success last year, honestly, I think all this is related to Garland. Yeah. Because people think of Donovan Mitchell as the guy on that team. And don't get me wrong, he is. But a huge part of their success last year was him taking a legitimate step back. And he got a lot of credit for kind of putting his ego to the side and saying, you know what, whatever it takes to win, I'm not going to handle as much. I'm not going to facilitate as much. I'm going to give up shots, I'm going to give up whatever it takes. And he took a lot of very deserved credit. The effect of that was Darius Garland is really going to be the one who runs the offense. Mitchell is going to have Mitchell possessions and he's going to make the right basketball play. But Darius Garland is going to be the best 3 point creator on this team. He's going to run the most pick and roll. He's going to bring the ball up the most. He's going to be the guy who's able to get into the teeth of the defense the most because he's going to create threes from there. He's the best three point creator they have. He's specifically really important on those corner threes. They're still taking a lot of threes. The quality of their threes right now is not what it was last year. And I think a huge part of that is because Garland isn't there to be able to facilitate corner threes and be able to kick out and then have the ball swing around the perimeter. They're just not operating in that same kind of way without Garland. And they had the number one offense in the league. And I, I voted for Garland for all NBA last year. And my justification was people talk about he didn't make it, but my justification was people talk about Donovan Mitchell in this fashion, but Garland is the one. Mitchell is, is their best player.

Yes.

And he's great. But Garland last year was the one who ran the show.

[Dave Defor]

Absolutely.

[Fred Katz]

And he ran the show for the offense. That was the most efficient offense in the NBA in the fourth quarters too.

[Tommy John Advertiser]

He was.

[Fred Katz]

This is a little bit like Suggs in Orlando. You know, the. The most important player on their offense is Jaylen Suggs in Orlando.

[Sequoia Capital Podcast Host]

Right.

[Fred Katz]

But you wouldn't know it if you just look at the stat sheet because he does a little bit of everything. And the biggest thing he does is just gets everyone else moving a little bit more. And Garland does that because what happens is they wind up especially late in games. You know, Donovan Mitchell can get his own shot and it's the only thing they have going. You know, Lonzo just has not given him anything. DeAndre Hunter having a down year.

[Dave Defor]

That was the issue against Indiana in the playoffs too.

[Fred Katz]

Right?

[Dave Defor]

Same thing.

[Fred Katz]

But to your point, man, this is. It points to Gar and his importance and the lack of health. I mean, I guess. Look, we need to take a quick break. When we come back, I'm going to ask you how we fix this, guys.

[Andrew Schlecht]

Hey, Andrew Schlecht here. The NBA on prime is back this Friday with another thrilling double header. It tips off with Tyrese Maxey and those spunky Philadelphia 76ers. Heading up to Madison Square Garden take on Jalen Brunson and the New York Knicks. Then the action heads west as SGA and the Oklahoma City Thunder visit Anthony Edwards and the Minnesota Timberwolves. That's a rematch of the Western Conference Finals, by the way, and if you're not a Prime member, that's not a problem. Sign up for a 30 day free trial to get started today. Sixers and Knicks, the Thunder and the T Wolves. I can't wait to watch both these matchups. High Powered Guards, the Eastern Conference Aries Maxi's taking a leap. If you haven't watched Tyrese Maxi play, this is the perfect setting. Everybody wants to play well at msg. And then Ant versus sga. We got Fire versus Ice. I mean, come on, everybody wants to watch this one. Coverage starts Friday at 6:30pm Eastern only on Prime. Restrictions apply. See Amazon.com Amazon prime for details.

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[Fred Katz]

Okay, the the Cavs are not necessarily broken, but they're busted right now. They just cannot win this as the losing to the Bulls right now is just kind of inexcusable regardless of who's.

Missing and the Hornets.

[Dave Defor]

I have to say it's not just the Bulls and the Hornets. Look, the last four games they have lost to the warriors without Jimmy Butler, Steph Curry, Draymond Green, Al Horford. They beat the Wizards, the 4 and 20 Wizards, but that was thanks to 48 points by Donovan Mitchell. They lost to the Hornets in overtime in a game where the Cavs didn't score in overtime and then a 16 point loss of the Chicago Bulls who have been 2 and 8 have just been nosediving in the standings. This is not just like the bottom has fallen out at this point and I think that's the concerning part. Also, their depth isn't what it was last year. Like losing Ty Jerome has hurt because Darius Garland hasn't been available. You don't have that secondary creator and I don't think Lonzo Ball has been able to like fill that gap in any sort of meaningful way. DeAndre Hunter hasn't been the type of player that they're looking for him to be so that, that like loss of depth is really hurting them. They're also a second apron team. So when you think about trades, it becomes very, very hard for them to make a move. So if we're, if we're looking at trades, I have no idea.

[Fred Katz]

Yeah, Fred. Who do they even trade? I mean, you know, the first name that comes to mind I think is Jared Allen. You say, okay, this is the guy out of the four, he's the most expendable is Jared Allen. But what does the market look like for. I think, you know, the Lakers might be interested. But what are you getting back for Jared Allen that's going to make you better than you would be with Jared Allen?

I think they're, I think it'll be very difficult for them to make a trade of significance in season because of everything you guys just said. You know, them being they're the only team in the league over the second apron right now. They have the most expensive payroll in the NBA right now. And that becomes incredibly difficult to make these kinds of moves because they're not allowed to trade more than one player in the same deal because they're over the second apron. They're not allowed to take in more money than they give out in a deal because they're over the first apron. There are all of these restrictions on how they can structure trades and, and make these deals. They can't trade with any team over the first apron. Period.

Yep.

They can't trade with any team over the first apron. So all those teams are off the table. On top of that, there are an unusual amount of teams in the league that are going to be looking to get off of money before the deadline. There are a lot of teams like S's, Raptors, who are just kind of barely in the tax. Yeah, like no team like that, you don't want to be in the tax. In that team, you're going to have an objective to try to get out of the tax.

Boston month to month on his lease right now. Right. Like, he's got to be right.

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[Fred Katz]

You want to try find ways to get out of the CACs, but it's really hard to make trades in season right now. And so I think it's going to be really difficult for them to be able to do anything consequential with this roster in season if anything big happens. I think the most likely scenarios, it happens in the off season. I feel kind of the same way about Giannis right now. I feel the same way about a lot of these big names, it's just going to be really hard to get a lot of these deals done just to pull them off. From a math perspective in season, it is really hard to make trades in the NBA.

[Dave Defor]

When you say the big, there are a lot of big names out. I mean, maybe not like big players, but big names are out there. When you think of basically everybody on the Sacramento Kings, Lamelo, Trey Young, any kind of mid NBA player, Anthony Davis.

[Fred Katz]

Okay, all right. Perfect segue. You know, Fred, over at the Athletic, you just wrote about how the Thunder's dominance might kill the trade deadline. I mean, it is this really like the chilling effect of, of how good they are. And you think, okay, time to keep the powder dry.

I don't know. But I do know that I've spoken to people in the league who are kind of asking themselves that question right now. Are the Thunders so good that it's not really worth going all in with what we have right now? Because it won't make a difference in terms of winning a title. If our. If you're. If you're Denver and you're ceiling, and I'm just using Denver as an example because they're awesome. If you're Denver and you feel like, you know what, this team is awesome. But the ceiling is Western Conference finals, is there any move you can make that can make you feel like the ceiling isn't the Western Conference finals? If you're the Knicks who we just talked about is there, you know, they don't have a lot to give up. They've got a first round pick swap and they got a surplus of second rounders and that's it. They can't trade any first rounders. That's it. But would you give up all that you can have? If you feel like your ceiling is winning the east and losing the Thunder in the finals and is there any move that you could possibly make in which your ceiling wouldn't be winning the east and losing to the Thunder in the finals? And if that's the case, will that affect how you act? I think teams are just asking themselves that question right now. Certain teams are ones who I've spoken to certainly are. It's reminiscent to a degree of when KD was on the warriors and there were teams who were like, we're just gonna wait this thing out. The big difference is that the KD warriors thing, you know, KD went there in free agency, signed a one year deal. He resigned. One year deal. He resigned one year deal, then he was gone. There was always Like a sort of lingering question of like how long will KD really.

[Dave Defor]

There was a shot clock on the whole thing, right?

[Fred Katz]

Yeah, exactly. And so you could wait it out. Whereas here I think you could actually flip this argument over and say, oh yeah. The Thunder are easily the best team in the league right now. However, they have the Clippers unprotected first round pick this year and they might have Utah's first rounder if Utah ends up not in the top eight. And they might have Phillies, probably will have Phillies first rounder. They have a swap with the Clippers next year, which wasn't even part of the Paul George trade. They finagled their way into the James Harden trade, gave the Clippers back a first round pick and in exchange for that got a swap in 2020. And now that might end up being unbelievable because they have the clipper stop in 2027. They are loaded with picks. They got more of them too. On top of that, Jalen Williams is 24.

Yeah.

A.J. mitchell's in his second season. Chad Holmgren's 23.

Yeah.

Kasem Wallace. I, I, I think is 12. Like they're, they're so young. Shay is still getting better, right?

Yeah.

Like Shay is significantly better this year than he was last year.

[Dave Defor]

He is having his best season. Absolutely.

[Fred Katz]

Yeah.

I love Mitchell before Chet, by the way, that, that you're, we're on the same track here. That guy is so good that I think about him often. I mean this team is loaded. I think.

It'S, it's because they keep, it's because they keep finding more pieces in places they shouldn't like chat was the reason I think about him in this context is because like Chet was a number two pick.

Yeah.

Like people thought Chet was going to be awesome and Chet is now awesome. Whereas AJ Mitchell was a second round pick and now all of a sudden he's this offensive, you know, offensive creator and a legit second ball handler next to Shay and is, is really good.

Brooks is a future mvp. I mean like that's probably at this point.

[Dave Defor]

Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised. Yeah, exactly.

[Fred Katz]

Nikola topic. You know, I don't have personal opinions on Nikola topic because I'm not a good prospect guy. But the people like the Sam Vicinis of the world, they're like, they're very topics were healthy at the draft and now obviously he dealing with way more serious stuff than that. But if Tobit were healthy at the draft, like he would have been a, a top four, top five, top six pick. Like this is this is a loaded roster, which could get even more loaded. So maybe it's the time to actually go in.

Yeah.

Right now I had a line that I used in the story where it's.

Like, because you're saying this is not the peak for the.

Maybe it's not.

Right. It was definitely not. Well, that's going to be better also, like, everyone's going to improve.

[Dave Defor]

You still have to win. Like, this is the whole thing with the warriors in 2016 with, you know, 73 and 9, Etc. Like, even if they do end up going 74 and 8, you still have to win four playoff series, you know, and.

[Fred Katz]

And injuries play a role in every single playoff run.

[Dave Defor]

Staying healthy.

[Fred Katz]

Look, scared. Money doesn't make any right. S. Yeah. In Vegas. And I'm just saying that you, like, if you have a chance and if you're a team and you can go get Giannis, who is the third best player, fourth best player in the league, that gives you a better title chance than you had yesterday. And Oklahoma City Thunder, as good as they are, no basketball team's perfect. Not any basketball team. And I mean, they're like, the Nuggets could beat them. This Nugget team is. They're off to the best start in Nuggets history. And they've been down Christian Brown and Aaron Gordon for a good chunk of this.

[Dave Defor]

The spurs just beat them.

[Fred Katz]

Spurs did just beat him in a Cup game, which Fred Katz admits means more to these guys. So I'm just saying, you know, like, when it. When the lights are bright in Vegas, they've. They've kind of shrunk a little bit. I think I would have a little bit of solace in that.

Yeah. A hundred percent. Yeah. You know, and also, like, if you're waiting out an injury, like, look, if you're waiting on an injury, for all you know, at any given moment, you know, Jalen Williams could go down and they could lose one out of 25 games.

You know, this is the most absurd thing is that they. They haven't had injuries and they haven't had their starting lineup. Yeah, they're amazing.

JDubs barely played. Caruso is just like, on his own timeline. Isaiah Joe was out.

Yeah.

[Dave Defor]

Hartenstein.

[Fred Katz]

Hartenstein was out.

[Dave Defor]

Yeah.

[Sequoia Capital Podcast Host]

Yeah.

[Dave Defor]

Guys, even last year, last year, chet missed like 50 games because he broke his hip. This is. This is par for the course for them. They just are a machine in the regular season, and obviously they found a way to win a championship last year.

[Fred Katz]

Is this the first time, Fred, that you've ever felt I could take. Take the team over the field. Or were the warriors like that for you?

I don't remember. The warriors were probably like that for me. Yeah, they were probably like that for me. Okay. I mean, look, I'm all for going for it, especially because if something happens, like, if something happens, you want to be in the position to be able to go do something. Absolutely. You know? Yeah. Like if you just turn down. If you progressively turn down opportunities to get better, then you're probably going to get worse. And then you're regressing, you're not maintaining, and that's kind of where I stand with it. On top of that, like, look, Toronto had some luck in 2019, but clearly that warriors team wasn't unbeatable. Even though it seemed unbeatable even when.

[Dave Defor]

The NBA Finals was about to start, people were like, the warriors are still going to win the series, but just stuff happened.

[Fred Katz]

And then KD got hurt and Clay got hurt, and all of a sudden.

[Dave Defor]

Like, the Raptors have a championship.

[Fred Katz]

Exactly.

The Raptors have a championship. And, and. And that is an example of scared money don't make none.

That's right. Preparation and opportunity. When they meet, it looks a lot like luck.

[Dave Defor]

So you're saying that the Raptors should trade for Anthony Davis, Right?

[Fred Katz]

Is that. I don't think that's where we're going with that. All right, we are gonna wrap it up there. Thank you guys for hanging out. Thanks, Fred Katz. We got to do these more often. I think this is kind of fun. Thanks to Esper Henny for hanging out. If you're listening to this podcast, wherever you're listening, go and leave us a five star review. If you're on YouTube, subscribe to the channel, give this video a like, leave us a comment, tell us who you think should trade for Giannis and and go for a title run and who might be able to beat the Thunder in the finals. That's going to do it for the show. Thank you guys for listening. Tune in next time.

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