The David Frum Show – “America on the Brink of War With Venezuela” Host: David Frum
Guest: Kiko Toro (Founder & Editor, Caracas Chronicles)
Date: November 5, 2025

Episode Overview

This episode of The David Frum Show explores the unprecedented military tension between the United States and Venezuela, the murky motivations behind U.S. actions, and the broader consequences for democracy, migration, and regional stability. Frum is joined by Kiko Toro, an expert on Venezuelan politics, to unpack the roots of the crisis, the internal dynamics of both governments, and the sobering historical context. Together, they illuminate the tangled web of propaganda, failed policies, kleptocracy, and the real human costs at stake.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Prelude: U.S. Constitutional Crisis and Presidential Powers (01:11–09:35)

• David Frum opens with reflections on the U.S. Supreme Court's impending decision regarding President Trump's expansive use of tariff, spending, and Federal Reserve powers under emergency laws.
• Frum warns of a “constitutional coup” as Trump claims powers historically rejected by both American and English constitutional traditions, drawing connections to executive overreach and its dangerous implications for democracy.
  • Quote: “The President has made a kind of constitutional coup. He’s effectively repealed the most important powers in Article 1...” (07:54)

2. The Situation in the Caribbean: War Clouds Gather (09:37–13:34)

• Frum lays the context: The U.S. has amassed its largest Caribbean fleet since the Cuban Missile Crisis and has initiated attacks on so-called ‘narco-trafficker’ boats, but provides little evidence or clarity on intentions.
• Kiko Toro describes the surreal dissonance for Venezuelans: decades of anti-American regime propaganda, now seemingly coming true.
  • Toro: “There’s just this disorienting feeling of, wait a minute, this time it’s different.” (10:28)
• No clear U.S. consensus: Rubio seeks regime change, Grenell seeks deals, Trump is focused on anti-narcotics—with no unified strategy.
  • “Trump is obviously going to change his mind three times before breakfast.” (11:31)

3. U.S. Claims of Drug Trafficking from Venezuela (13:34–17:11)

• Toro explains: Venezuela is not a producer but a transit route for Colombian cocaine; military elites profit, but it is not a major pipeline.
  • “Nobody fishes with a fast boat as far as we know…” (15:28)
  • “No regime anywhere has been dislodged purely from the air.” (13:31)
• Boats destroyed by U.S.: Likely drug boats, protected by Venezuelan military for a cut of profits, but their destruction serves a political justification more than a practical anti-drug purpose.

4. Migration Crisis: U.S. Policy Blowback (17:11–21:03)

• Frum highlights brutal U.S. immigration enforcement—masks, violence, lack of accountability—targeting Venezuelan migrants.
• Toro provides context: Migration is largely a result of both the Chavez/Maduro regime's economic destruction and the 2019 “maximum pressure” U.S. sanctions, which induced an economic freefall.
  • “We’re talking [about] a quarter of the [Venezuelan] population, but mostly this is a cream of Venezuela’s younger generation that had to leave...” (19:35)
  • “Many of the Venezuelan migrants... were fresh off of a 3,000 mile trek from Venezuela past things like the Darien Gap... one of the most dangerous places in the world.” (18:48)

5. What Would U.S. Airstrikes Accomplish? (21:04–23:56)

• Uncertainty reigns about targets: jungle airstrips (drug-related), military infrastructure, or broader strikes.
• Toro: Some opposition and ordinary Venezuelans might favor strikes, but history shows air campaigns rarely topple regimes alone.
• Key concern: Bombings could prompt regime purges, not a coup, worsening repression.

6. Risks of Retaliation and Political Calculus (23:56–25:18)

• Frum muses about potential for retaliation, even terrorism, triggered by attacks.
• Toro: Regime possesses missiles that could theoretically appear in the U.S., though unlikely as it risks everything for Maduro’s elite.

7. Possible Outcomes: Deflation or Regime Change? (25:18–27:28)

• Frum & Toro: Most likely outcome is the crisis fizzles, with Trump “scaring” Venezuela, then moving on; the risk and complexity of a military strike remain high.
• Toro warns: Even “regime change” could mean merely replacing one kleptocratic military regime with a more U.S.-friendly, extractive dictatorship, rather than democracy.
  • “...not necessarily regime change towards a democracy, but more [towards] an extractive military dictatorship that wraps itself up in the Stars and Stripes.” (26:55)

8. Erosion of Legal and International Norms (27:28–30:31)

• Frum draws parallels: Trump acting without Congressional approval or international coalitions, in stark contrast to previous U.S. interventions (e.g., Grenada, Panama).
• Toro notes: These intimidation tactics mirror those used by Chavez/Maduro—rewriting rules for power, not legitimacy.

Deep-Dive: Venezuela’s Lost Democracy and Kleptocracy

9. Venezuelan History & Decline (30:31–35:18)

• Toro recounts Venezuela’s transformation from a democracy and economic beacon, to a state hollowed out by oil booms, busts, and failed policies:
  • “...from 1925 to 1975, Venezuela had the fastest rising standard of living of any country in the world.” (30:58)
  • Political stability until cycles of oil-fueled boom and bust undermined the middle class, opening a path for Chavez.

10. Rise of Hugo Chavez and Authoritarianism (35:18–37:47)

• Chavez first attempted a coup (1992), then won elections democratically as a messianic figure for the frustrated lower-middle class.
• His populism—calls, handouts, “Trumpian” techniques—opened the way for what would become the modern kleptocratic state.

11. Maduro’s Cuban Connection & Deepening Repression (37:47–43:21)

• Toro: Maduro was hand picked as Chavez’s successor for his reliability as a Cuban asset, with Cuban intelligence running much of the Venezuelan state.
• The regime moved from “hybrid” to outright autocracy after 2017 protests, with surveillance, checkpoints, pervasive fear—a “ratcheting” into dictatorship.
  • “It really ended the possibility to write freely in Venezuela... Now there are checkpoints all over Venezuela... police or military... will go through your stuff, your cell phone... and if they find [anti-regime material], will trundle you off to jail.” (41:08)

Scenarios & Domestic/International Fallout

12. Possible U.S. Strategies and Regional Complications (43:21–46:29)

• Potential U.S. endgames: Bluff and withdraw; coup by military insiders (“kleptocratic motivation”); or real air/naval strikes against regime infrastructure.
• Uncertainty: Will targeted strikes disrupt the regime or merely prompt more repression?
• Focus on dissatisfaction among junior officers, which historically drives successful coups in Latin America.

13. Shifting Leftist Sentiments and Regional Fallout (46:29–48:00)

• International left no longer rallies to Maduro—the regime is now a regional embarrassment.
  • “Those guys all whistled away from the crime scene and tried to scrub it from their CVs, because it's just a straight up embarrassment.” (46:58)
• Venezuelan migration has destabilized neighboring countries, ending illusions of the regime’s legitimacy.

14. Wider Global and U.S. Political Context (48:00–51:41)

• Frum: Trump uses foreign military crises to justify militarization and erosion of legal norms at home, returning to “gunboat diplomacy.”
• U.S. threats against Colombia (a key U.S. ally and democracy) highlight how the lack of strategy imperils regional relationships.
  • “If you were taking this seriously, you would understand that... you would have to do it through Colombia, through your ally, Colombia.” (50:50)

15. Conclusion: Hoping for Restraint and Democratic Restoration (51:41–52:29)

• Frum closes: Wishing for “nothing too stupid, nothing too brutal,” and a hope that Venezuela returns to democracy by its own people.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• David Frum (on Trump’s power):
  “The President has made a kind of constitutional coup. He’s effectively repealed the most important powers in Article 1, taken away the taxing power, taking away the spending power... concentrated that power in himself...” (07:54)

• Kiko Toro (on U.S. military build-up): “There’s just this disorienting feeling of, ‘wait a minute, this time it’s different.’” (10:28)

• Kiko Toro (on migration): “People should understand that many of the Venezuelan migrants that turned up on the southern border… were fresh off of a 3,000 mile trek… through the Darien Gap… one of the most dangerous places in the world.” (18:48)

• Toro (on regime survival): “One thing that they don’t make mistakes about is on how to stay in power. This is the one thing that they know how to do and that they’re serious about and good at.” (24:09)

• Frum (on U.S. intervention): “We’re now back to the days of gunboat diplomacy.” (49:26)

• Toro (on the left abandoning Maduro): “Those guys all whistled away from the crime scene and tried to scrub it from their CVs, because it’s just a straight up embarrassment.” (46:58)

Important Timestamps by Segment

• 01:11 – U.S. Supreme Court, emergency powers & constitutional crisis
• 09:36 – Conversation with Kiko Toro begins
• 10:28 – Venezuelan perceptions of U.S. military build-up
• 13:57 – The reality and limits of Venezuela’s role in drug trade
• 17:11 – Migration crisis, U.S. policy, and consequences
• 21:04 – Potential U.S. airstrikes: implications and reactions
• 23:56 – Risks of retaliatory tactics by the Maduro regime
• 25:58 – Scenarios if the standoff resolves without attack
• 27:28 – Trump administration militarism & eroding legal norms
• 30:58 – A brief history of Venezuela’s democracy and prosperity
• 33:30 – Chavez’s rise and coalition
• 37:47 – Maduro’s Cuban ties and authoritarian entrenchment
• 41:08 – Everyday repression in modern Venezuela
• 46:58 – Regional and international left’s abandonment of Maduro
• 49:36 – U.S. threats towards Colombia and regional implications
• 51:41 – Frum’s closing thoughts on hope and democracy

Episode Tone and Language

Frum is characteristically incisive, concerned, and deeply historical in his frame, while Toro offers both personal anecdotes and sharp, sometimes wry, insights from an exile’s perspective. The conversation blends urgency and world-weariness, with recurring reminders of both the tragedies and ironies in Venezuela’s descent into dictatorship—and the dangerous, unmoored state of U.S. foreign policy.

Summary prepared for listeners seeking insight into U.S.–Venezuela crisis and its larger lessons for democracy, international relations, and the defense of basic norms.