The David Frum Show – March 11, 2026

Episode Theme: Can Democrats Actually Win in Texas?
Key Guests: Beto O’Rourke (Texas political leader, ex-Rep.), Samuel Fleischacker (Adam Smith Scholar)
Host: David Frum (The Atlantic)

Overview

This episode explores the pivotal question: "Can Democrats Actually Win in Texas?" David Frum discusses the current political landscape in Texas after the March 3rd primary with Beto O’Rourke, examining political shifts, demographic changes, policy issues, and the impact of national politics on Texas's Democratic prospects. The episode also includes a special segment marking the 250th anniversary of Adam Smith's Wealth of Nations with philosopher Samuel Fleischacker, connecting Smith’s ideas to contemporary debates about economics and governance.

Texas Politics in 2026: Can Democrats Win?

Setting the Scene: National and State Chaos

• David Frum opens with commentary (00:00–09:26):
  • Disarray at DHS amid a US-Iran conflict and Trump’s demands to restrict mail-in voting in exchange for the DHS budget.
  • Alarm about counterterrorism vulnerability: “You would not just bring some professionalism to this, suggest a kind of negligence in the prosecution of a war of choice... It’s really hard to wrap your mind around. Nothing like this has been seen before.” (08:23 — Frum)

The Texas Race: The State, the Stakes, the Contest

1. The Post-Primary Landscape

• Beto O’Rourke’s optimism (09:44):
  • James Talarico, a “generational talent,” just won the Democratic Senate primary.
  • “This set of conditions that I just described...it's really kind of a perfect storm, not just for James Talarico but for Texas Democrats.” (11:42 — O’Rourke)
  • For the first time since 1974, Democrats have candidates in every state House, Senate, and congressional race.
  • Factors aligning for Democrats: unpopular president, damaged GOP, record turnout, and a full competitive slate.

2. Why is Texas So Hard for Democrats?

• Frum asks (12:43):

  • Texas should lean blue given its urbanization, knowledge industries, education, and diverse demographics.

• O’Rourke replies (13:24):

  • Voter suppression and gerrymandering are the core issues.
  • “The highest forms of voter suppression, ironically, in the state that produced LBJ and the Voting Rights Act.” (13:49 — O’Rourke)
  • Republicans target Black and young voters, making every election cycle harder for Democratic turnout.

3. Turnout vs. Persuasion: The Strategic Divide

• Debate inside the Democratic Party (16:49):
  • “Isn’t it true...if Texans vote in higher numbers, they will actually be more red and less blue?” (16:49 — Frum)
  • O’Rourke: It’s both turnout and persuasion; Democrats must meet and engage new voters and also win back the Rio Grande Valley and other shifting regions.
  • “I think persuasion is in order as well...I think you have to be in the 254 counties of Texas, reaching out to people everywhere.” (17:52 — O’Rourke)

4. The Primary: A Nasty Family Feud

• Escalation and Fallout (19:55):

  • Race and identity weaponized in the Democratic primary; need for party unity post-fight.
  • O’Rourke: The party’s organizational weakness, lack of a unifying figure, and resource starvation from national Democrats exacerbate divisiveness.
  • Hopeful note: Jasmine Crockett graciously conceded and began uniting behind Talarico.

• On Black Voters in Texas (24:15):

  • “There are more black voters in the state of Texas than there are in any other state in the union.” (24:26 — O’Rourke)
  • O'Rourke stresses treating Black voters as essential, not taken for granted.

5. National Progressivism vs. Texas Realities

• Frum’s theory (25:14):

  • National donor money pushes Texas Dems left of voters; risk for candidates like Talarico.

• O’Rourke responds (26:29):

  • Recalls Colin Allred’s centrist campaign (lost badly), argues Talarico’s focus on education and health care can transcend ideological labels.
  • “These are very popular and maybe even populist issues...regardless of your party affiliation.” (28:29 — O’Rourke)

• Frum compares national strategy (29:19):

  • Contrasts biographical moderation (e.g., Tim Walz) with policy leftism; suggests Talarico is similar but more refined.

• O’Rourke on authenticity (30:27):

  • “What I think people want...is change from what has failed them so far. And James Talarico is just so different than anything that we have seen, or at least that I have seen in the state of Texas.”

Memorable Quotes & Moments

• On the choice facing Texas Democrats:

  • “This slide to authoritarianism and fascism, I think, is unstoppable [if Democrats don’t win]. I think that the premium on change and something different is going to be greater than perhaps at any other time.” (35:11 — O’Rourke)

• On local campaigning:

  • “That fucker went everywhere. He showed up for everybody, wrote nobody off, took nobody for granted...” (37:59 — O’Rourke, quoting how he was perceived in 2018)

Outlook: 2030 and Beyond

• Democratic future hinges on Texas (38:52):
  • “If Democrats are going to be a national party in the 2032 presidential contest, if we have one, the Democratic nominee could win all of the so-called blue wall states. But if they don't also win the state of Texas, there is no viable path to the White House.” (39:00 — O’Rourke)
  • Texas will gain electoral power post-2030 Census; Dems need to invest now, not later.

Book Dialogue: 250 Years of Adam Smith’s Wealth of Nations

Adam Smith: Libertarian or Not? (42:37–52:25)

Key Insights

• Smith’s True Philosophy (43:00):

  • Smith advocated economic liberty, skepticism of state-run economies, and anti-tariff policies.
  • “His picture of human nature is perhaps the most socially shaped that you're going to find among the thinkers of his time...” (44:09 — Fleischacker)
  • Smith did not see individuals as atomized but as essentially social creatures.

• The Invisible Hand (48:32):

  • The phrase refers to the idea that private actions can unintentionally benefit society. Smith was not an “invisible hand of God” determinist.

• On Policy and Today’s America (50:09):

  • “I think [Smith] would be appalled. You couldn't have a more unsmithian way of running the economy. He doesn't trust government figures. He thinks they're corrupt...” (50:10 — Fleischacker)
  • Smith hated tariffs and believed government favoritism distorted economies.

Memorable Book Segment Quotes

• “We don't even recognize ourselves as a self until we start interacting with other people.” (44:16 — Fleischacker on Smith’s Theory of Moral Sentiments)
• “There's nothing, no policy he hates more than tariffs.” (50:44 — Fleischacker)

On Reading Smith Today

• Smith’s work remains highly relevant, more readable than Gibbon, and actively debated.

Timestamps for Key Segments

• National political chaos & DHS: 00:00–09:26
• Beto O’Rourke interview start: 09:31
• State of Texas politics post-primary: 09:44–12:43
• Democratic challenges in Texas: 12:43–16:49
• Turnout vs. persuasion & party unity: 16:49–25:14
• Donor influence & candidate positioning: 25:14–34:14
• Local campaigning and 2018 reflections: 34:14–38:34
• Texas and America’s political future: 38:34–41:31
• Book segment (Adam Smith dialogue): 42:37–52:25

Takeaways

• Texas remains the great battleground for American democracy, with demographic potential, ongoing suppression and gerrymandering, but also new energies and a full Democratic ticket for the first time in decades.
• Winning in Texas requires both massive turnout efforts and local persuasion; unity and authenticity are valued above all.
• The outcome in Texas in 2026 and beyond will shape, perhaps decide, the fate of the national Democratic party and American democracy itself.
• Smith’s Wealth of Nations remains a touchstone for thinking about economic liberty versus state control, and is surprisingly relevant to today’s policy debates.