The David Frum Show – “Trump’s Tariff Disaster”
Date: July 30, 2025
Host: David Frum (The Atlantic)
Guest: Douglas Irwin (Professor, Dartmouth College; author of Clashing Over Commerce)

Overview

In this episode, David Frum dissects the Trump administration’s sweeping new tariffs, articulating why these measures are economically and politically disastrous. Joined by preeminent trade historian Douglas Irwin, the discussion explores the myths surrounding tariffs, their real impact on the American economy, and historical precedents from the 19th century to today. Together, they unravel the logic of protectionism, its political motives, and its consequences for democracy, growth, and America’s alliances.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Trump Tariff Program: Recent Events and Economic Impact

[00:24–14:07]

• The Trump administration recently announced broad, punitive tariffs on European imports, with more to follow globally.
• These tariffs, Frum notes, are framed as victories to restore American manufacturing and “balance” trade—but in reality, they:
  • Increase costs for American consumers, especially the poorest.
  • Raise input prices for American manufacturers, hurting competitiveness and exports.
  • Lead to global retaliation, reducing U.S. exports (e.g., soybeans to China).
  • Destabilize alliances, painting America as an unreliable partner.
• The rationale: shifting the tax burden from the wealthy (who received recent tax cuts) to working- and middle-class Americans via consumption taxes on everyday goods.
• “The knives and forks on the dinner tables of ordinary people, those are tariffed. ...That’s a tax paid by the Americans least able to pay taxes.” (David Frum, 02:30)
• Frum observes economic slowdown since the tariffs’ introduction, with “slower growth” and increased uncertainty deterring investment.
• Notably, he suggests investor optimism is fueled by expectations that courts will strike down the tariffs (13:07), warning of a market shock if they do not.

2. What Is a Tariff and How Are Presidents Imposing Them?

Guest: Douglas Irwin joins
[14:07–16:52]

• Tariff defined: “A tariff is a tax on imported goods. ...It's designed for one of three purposes: revenue, restriction, or reciprocity.” (Irwin, 14:37)
• Constitutional authority for tariffs lies with Congress, but since the 1930s, much of this power has been delegated to the executive. Irwin traces how this allowed modern presidents to wield tariffs for political ends:
  • “Congress sort of trusted the President ...but now, over time, the President has a lot of power over trade, and this President uses it very differently.” (Irwin, 15:52)
• Frum’s metaphor: “Congress said, ‘Here’s the keys to the liquor cabinet. ...you will not foolishly and promiscuously swig the Curaçao.’ And then it turns out they handed it over to a man... mixing it with grain alcohol.” (Frum, 16:28)

3. Debunking Protectionist Myths from American History

[16:52–30:40]

A. Did 19th-century Tariffs Cause U.S. Industrial Greatness?

• Frum & Irwin tackle the common argument: high tariffs (1860s–1920s) coincided with U.S. industrial growth—therefore, tariffs “caused” prosperity.
  • Irwin rebuts: Correlation is not causation. Industrial growth also boomed during low-tariff periods, and other forces (immigration, capital, technology) were at play.
    • “Manufacturing was growing rapidly even when tariffs were falling...so the idea the tariffs were causing growth doesn’t hold.” (Irwin, 17:41)
• Frum notes political side-effects: Tariffs fueled unrest and inequalities—agrarian and populist movements blamed tariffs for tilting benefits to industrialists, sparking protest and violence.
  • “The tariff was the mother, in many ways, of those civil dissensions...” (Frum, 20:12)
• Notable period phrase: “the tariff is the mother of the trust." (Irwin, 21:07)

B. Smoot-Hawley and the Great Depression

• Smoot-Hawley (1930) didn’t “cause” the Depression, but it “contracted trade,” invited retaliation and worsened global economic collapse.
  • “Exporters, both manufacturers and farmers, were locked out of foreign markets...” (Irwin, 22:06)
• Frum’s “fanciful theory”: Debt, exacerbated by Fordney-McCumber Tariffs (1920s), set the stage for disaster—Europe needed to export to repay debt, but U.S. protectionism forced borrowing, piling up precarity.
  • Irwin agrees: “Identifying the [1922] Fordney-McCumber Tariff as a big culprit for the instability in the 1920s...” (Irwin, 26:12)
• The “Roaring Twenties”: The name was a warning, not a celebration—farmers and exporters did poorly, the bubble burst hurt worst those left out. (Frum, 28:00)

4. Modern Examples: The “China Shock” and Trade Deficit Misunderstandings

[30:40–39:06]

• China Shock: Autor et al’s research shows local harms where import competition was intense, but overall U.S. employment was growing.
  • “At the time...A lot of labor groups were not really upset about what China was doing. ...only in retrospect…” (Irwin, 30:40)
• Frum attacks “moral” stories about trade deficits: It’s not because Americans “overconsume,” but because the U.S. borrows heavily—this attracts capital, resulting in trade deficits.
  • “When the United States borrows a lot... capital flows in, in order to invest in American industry, which is good...” (Frum, 35:02)
  • “My favorite one line...about the trade deficit is: the best way to think about the trade deficit is not to think about it.” (Irwin, 38:03)

5. Tariffs, Nostalgia, and Modern Jobs

[39:06–43:00]

• Frum and Irwin spotlight nostalgia for “lost” industries (steel, coal) exploited by politicians, though these now employ vanishingly few.
  • “Back in the ...2010s...if you totted up the entire coal mining sector...about 50,000 people, fewer than the number of ...licensed yoga instructors.” (Frum, 40:20)
• Technological change, not trade, is the dominant force behind declining jobs in traditional sectors.
  • “In the 1980s, it took ten worker-hours to produce a ton of steel. Now it takes one. ...We’re still producing a lot of steel, but using very, very, very few people.” (Irwin, 41:44)

6. The “National Security” Pretexts: Copper and Strategic Materials

[43:00–47:25]

• Trump imposed tariffs on copper, citing national security—even though 90% comes from allies with free trade agreements (Chile, Canada, Peru).
  • “If we're really concerned about the supply of copper, we should be stockpiling it...not draining America first.” (Irwin, 45:40)
• Frum points out the inconsistency: By raising tariffs on steel and copper, the U.S. is undermining its own shipbuilding—even as it claims to be preparing for conflict.
  • “We are shrinking the future United States Navy in order to pay off President Trump's political debts…” (Frum, 45:15)
• Tariff policy is easily corrupted—used for political patronage under the guise of patriotism.

7. Tariff Spirals, Corruption, and Economic Self-Harm

[47:25–52:51]

• Tariffs create perverse incentives, requiring ever more protection for downstream products and industries, leading to an uncompetitive economy.
  • “Every time you put a tariff on something, you render all those who use that something non-competitive...” (Frum, 47:25)
• U.S. tariffs now directly target goods from friends and allies—tearing up trade agreements and damaging strategic relationships.
  • “They are privileged few who get a respite from having to face price competition because you are forced to pay more.” (Frum, 49:48)
• Tariffs are regressive: “Lower income groups spend more ...on traded goods...they’re the ones who are going to bear the price.” (Irwin, 51:40)
• Political aim: Shift the fiscal burden from the wealthy (who got tax cuts) to ordinary Americans, masked by appeals to nationalism and anti-foreigner sentiment. (Frum, 51:00)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the unseen tax burden:
  “A tariff is a tax on the poorest people because it falls most heavily on goods…on those Americans who spend more of their incomes on goods, less on services, less on savings—those least able to pay”
  —David Frum, [05:20]
• On the nostalgia behind protectionism:
  “How do we get people working again in steel mills? Or in President Trump’s case, how do we get them back into the mines?...If I said, ‘Let’s completely mess up the U.S. and world economy’ to protect the yoga instructors from competition, that seems stupid. But for coal mining, it’s a policy.”
  —David Frum, [40:20]
• On steel’s changing workforce:
  “In the 1980s, it took ten worker-hours to produce a ton of steel. ...Now it takes one worker-hour. ...Now it’s all mechanized, it’s all technology ...The skill upgrading is profound.”
  —Douglas Irwin, [41:44]
• On the political corruption of protectionism:
  “It’s not totally boneheaded...somebody who owns a copper mine inside the United States bought a lot of Trump meme coins ...and in return, the Trump administration is making sure ...they won’t have to face Chilean price competition.”
  —David Frum, [46:12]
• On Reagan and tariffs:
  “Reagan said we shouldn’t call it protectionism, we should call it destructionism because it really is destructive. ...It’s not just economically destructive, as you point out… We alienate friends and lose potential allies with this trade policy.”
  —Douglas Irwin, [50:17]

Important Timestamps

• 00:24–02:30: Frum explains how tariffs serve as a tax on ordinary Americans.
• 14:37: Irwin defines what a tariff is and its three historical purposes.
• 21:07: “Tariff is the mother of the trust”—tariffs fostered monopolies and inequality.
• 22:06–23:13: Smoot-Hawley’s impact on trade, not the root cause of the Depression.
• 26:12: Fordney-McCumber (1922) tariffs as underlying culprit of 1920s instability.
• 38:03: On trade deficit stats: “The best way to think about the trade deficit is not to think about it.”
• 41:44: Modern steel production: massive automation, tiny workforce.
• 45:40: “If we’re really concerned about the supply of copper, we should be stockpiling it…”
• 50:17: Reagan on “destructionism,” the truly destructive nature of tariffs.
• 51:40: Tariffs are regressive—hitting those least able to pay.

Tone and Concluding Thoughts

The episode is incisive, detailed, and laced with wry humor. Frum (sharp, urgent, sometimes caustic) and Irwin (measured, professorial, precise) share deep concern that trade myths are misleading Americans into self-defeating policies. They stress the corrosive economic, social, and diplomatic effects of the new protectionism, and repeatedly urge listeners to challenge nostalgia, scapegoating, and ignorance in favor of historical perspective and empiricism. The conversation is ultimately a plea for honesty about policy motives and consequences—and a reminder that democracy and prosperity rest on clear-sighted, self-critical, and outward-looking economic choices.

For Further Insight:

• Read Douglas Irwin’s Clashing Over Commerce
• Explore Ronald Reagan’s speeches on trade
• Review historical records on tariffs like Fordney-McCumber and Smoot-Hawley

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