The David Frum Show – "Ukraine Won’t Surrender"

The Atlantic | August 6, 2025
Guests: Tim Mak (Counteroffensive, Ukraine-based journalist), Adrian Karatnicki (Atlantic Council, Ukraine specialist)
Host: David Frum

Episode Overview

This episode examines Ukraine’s ongoing struggle for democracy and self-determination in the face of continued Russian aggression and shifting U.S. support. David Frum is joined by Tim Mak, a frontline reporter based in Ukraine, and Adrian Karatnicki, a long-time Ukraine expert and democracy advocate. The conversation explores the internal political challenges facing Ukraine, specifically regarding anti-corruption measures, the impact of evolving U.S. policy (especially under President Trump), the military situation on the ground, and the societal resilience of Ukrainians.

The trio contextualizes these issues amid recent deadly attacks on Kyiv, discussing not only the battlefield realities but also the democratic development, unity, and defiant spirit of Ukrainians at this critical historic juncture.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Context: The July 31 Attack on Kyiv

• Frum opens with a somber recounting of a massive drone and missile attack on Kyiv (00:11), the deadliest since Russia’s full-scale 2022 invasion, highlighting the ongoing civilian toll and the psychological warfare Russia wages on Ukraine.
  • "The second single deadliest day of civilian attack on Kyiv since the beginning of the full scale war in February 2022." – David Frum, (00:31)
• Analysis of U.S. response: Frum critically examines President Trump’s rhetorical shift—his so-called "pivot" to stronger Ukraine support—but notes a lack of substantive policy change, with Russia largely shielded from U.S. economic measures even as American allies face new tariffs.
  • "Russia to this day remains uniquely exempt from the economic aggression that Trump has inflicted on Britain and Canada and Japan and South Korea and Australia and many, many, many friends." – David Frum, (03:22)

2. Decreased U.S. Military Aid & Political Will

• Aid Comparison:
  • Under Biden: ~$33 billion in military assistance (mostly equipment, not cash).
  • Under Trump: Proposal for just $800 million—a sharp reduction.
    • "We're proposing to spend 800 million—less than that for an entire year of Ukrainian self defense." – David Frum, (06:54)
• Frum’s Critique: U.S. military aid has not only diminished but become unreliable, subject to abrupt halts and political calculation.
  • "On that, we can see pretty clearly that the flow of armaments to Ukraine since Donald Trump has taken power have slowed and at regular intervals have been outright interrupted." – David Frum, (04:37)

3. Ukraine’s Internal Challenge: Anti-Corruption Protests

• Recent Controversy: Ukrainian parliament passed legislation reducing the independence of anti-corruption agencies, triggering significant domestic protests.
  • Tim Mak describes this as a "sneaky" move, arguing the public's backlash highlights how anti-corruption is central to the national identity post-Maidan.
    • "This has led to a sudden surge of protest in this country which we haven't seen since the beginning of this full scale invasion..." – Tim Mak, (14:03)
  • Adrian Karatnicki contextualizes this as both a power grab by Zelensky’s administration and a legacy of Ukraine's struggle with state authority.
    • "It makes them the more directly controlled instrument of the president and of his office. And that, I think, is a worrying thing..." – Adrian Karatnicki, (15:13)
• Resolution Reported: Frum notes in his preamble that Zelensky eventually rescinded the measure, preserving agency independence—a validation of civil society’s strength (10:30).

4. The Nature of Ukrainian Society and Democratic Spirit

• Protest as Identity: Tim Mak notes that resistance and civil protest are integral to modern Ukrainian identity, evidence of a “birthright” of activism, distinguishing Ukraine from Russia.
  • "Where you might see disunity, they see action and their birthright. They take it as a major point of pride that they overthrew a tyrant a decade ago." – Tim Mak, (21:00)
• Civic Resilience & Skepticism Toward the State: Karatnicki explains that centuries under foreign rule bred skepticism toward centralized power, but also profound attachment to democratic principles—tolerance for strong leadership during war, but persistent demand for accountability.
  • "The state has always been seen as something outside...But these protests show that Ukrainians retain this huge spirit of democracy, this huge skepticism of the state." – Adrian Karatnicki, (22:43)

5. Military Dynamics on the Ground

• Battlefield Realities:
  • Ukraine remains on the defensive, outgunned and outmanned.
  • Russia has suffered immense casualties for minimal territorial gains.
  • Drone warfare has fundamentally altered the nature of combat, making large-scale offensives both sides hazardous and slow.
    • "Most of the action that has led to major changes in control of territory have taken place over very short periods of time... development of a new form of drone warfare that has really imposed incredible costs..." – Tim Mak, (25:17)
• Aid Shortage Impact:
  • Dwindling U.S. weapon shipments are directly affecting Ukraine’s defensive capacity and morale.
    • "It's a morale issue in the short term... people have died as a result of delays in shipment of defensive weaponry." – Tim Mak, (26:47)

6. Interplay of U.S. and European Support

• Trump’s "Pivot":
  • Still characterized by delay, uncertainty, and transactional logic (selling weapons if Europe pays).
  • Europe is increasingly stepping up, despite its own economic and political limits.
    • "Europe is sitting on $250 billion of Russian frozen assets that... could be used to, to sustain Ukraine." – Adrian Karatnicki, (28:43)
• Fractured U.S. Political Will:
  • Republican support for Ukraine remains in the base, but not consistently among elected officials due to fears of Trump’s influence.
  • Democratic support is robust, but not total; to sustain aid, bipartisan consensus is needed.
    • "At the moment it's a little easier for these guys to be Trump adjacent because Trump has said a few tougher words. But I think that's, that's the problem." – Adrian Karatnicki, (44:55)

7. What Would End the War?

• Military vs. Political Endgames:
  • Mak dismisses the “magic bullet” hope of a technological breakthrough delivering victory.
  • Ukrainian innovation (homegrown drones, defensive tactics) is holding the line but cannot reclaim territory alone.
    • "Winning the war isn't really a matter of technology... The real problems exist in terms of manpower... that's just so outside the realm of what is likely over the next couple of years..." – Tim Mak, (33:20)
• Opportunity for Leverage:
  • Ukraine’s ability to strike inside Russia (e.g., Operation Spiderweb) demonstrates capability, but effect on Putin’s regime uncertain.
    • "Russia is a very opaque society from the outside... these dictatorships are very brittle structures and when they bend, they snap." – Tim Mak, (36:44)
  • Karatnicki argues that meaningful pressure could include targeting key Russian economic infrastructure.
    • "I've always believed that the only way to get Russia to negotiate is to hit the Russian power grid in places like Moscow and St. Petersburg..." – Adrian Karatnicki, (38:47)

8. Ukrainian Unity & Prospects for Imposed Peace

• No Appetite for Capitulation:
  • Both guests emphatically reject the notion that Ukrainians would acquiesce to a Russian-dictated peace, regardless of U.S. pressure.
    • "There is no appetite whatsoever in Ukraine for accepting a peace that would permit the takeover of additional territories simply through diplomacy." – Tim Mak, (40:39)
    • "This is like the high point of Ukrainian unity." – Adrian Karatnicki, (42:17)
• Ukrainians’ Relationship With U.S. Politics:
  • Ukrainians are highly sophisticated and attentive to American political nuances—"more adept at understanding American politics than Americans are." (Tim Mak, 47:47)
  • Recent events foster increased Ukrainian nationalism and an emerging ethos of self-reliance over dependency.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• David Frum on U.S. Aid Upside Down:
  "The gift jet that Trump extracted from Qatar...is going to cost the US taxpayer about a billion dollars to upgrade... And we're proposing to spend 800 million—less than that for an entire year of Ukrainian self defense." (06:54)

• Tim Mak on Protest as a Birthright:
  "Where you might see disunity, they see action and their birthright. They take it as a major point of pride that they overthrew a tyrant a decade ago." (21:00)

• Adrian Karatnicki on Ukrainian Unity:
  "This is like the high point of Ukrainian unity. And I think that that's actually a counterweight to the earlier part of our discussion. The Ukrainian people are united in the purpose of defending their way of life, their culture, their, to an extent, their language, their civilization, which they see as a more open one than what Russia offers." (42:17)

• Tim Mak on Defiance to Imposed Peace:
  "As long as there's a 12 year old kid in Ukraine with a plastic fork, there's going to be resistance to Russia and Russian occupation." (40:39)

• Adrian Karatnicki on Ukrainian Civic Spirit:
  "No one beats up on our president except us." (44:22)

• On U.S. Political Dynamics:
  "The Republican electorate still broadly support Ukraine, admire its martial spirit. And this is after years of attacks on Ukraine by Tucker Carlson and his and his ilk." – Adrian Karatnicki, (31:05)

Important Timestamps

• 00:11 – Frum’s opening, Kyiv attacks, Trump’s policy inertia
• 03:22 – U.S. tariffs hurting allies but sparing Russia
• 04:37 – Slowdown of U.S. military aid under Trump
• 06:54 – Stark contrast in U.S. spending priorities
• 10:30 – Breaking news: Zelensky reverses anti-corruption move
• 14:03 – Tim Mak describes anti-corruption protests
• 15:13 – Karatnicki’s analysis of power struggle over anti-corruption
• 21:00 – Mak on protest culture as Ukrainian identity
• 22:43 – Karatnicki on society’s enduring skepticism of the state
• 25:17 – Update on battlefield and drone warfare
• 26:47 – Aid interruption and morale impact
• 28:43 – Europe and frozen Russian assets as financial backstop
• 33:20 – Defense technology vs. manpower limitations
• 36:44 – Ukrainian strikes inside Russia and regime vulnerability
• 40:39 – Mak: no prospect of Ukrainians conceding to Russia-imposed peace
• 42:17 – Karatnicki: unity at a high point
• 44:55 – Karatnicki: Republican anxieties around Trump and Ukraine
• 47:47 – Mak: Ukrainians’ sharp grasp of U.S. political realities

Conclusion

"Ukraine Won’t Surrender" offers a sobering, nuanced look at both the fragility and resilience of Ukrainian democracy in wartime, the disappointing shifts in American policy, and the ingenuity and unity of a society determined to determine its own fate. Despite outside pressures, the Ukrainian population and political class remain fiercely committed to both sovereignty and democratic development—even as they face battlefield stalemate, internal tensions, and unreliable Western support.

The episode is a compelling blend of on-the-ground insight, historical context, and political analysis, bringing home not just the stakes of the war for Ukraine, but also for American credibility and the cause of democracy worldwide.