Iran Ceasefire Crumbles as Trump Loses Plot

Summary

Podcast Summary: "Iran Ceasefire Crumbles as Trump Loses Plot"

The Beat with Ari Melber – July 20, 2026

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Episode Overview

This episode of "The Beat" centers on the unraveling Iran ceasefire, the escalation of U.S.-Iran conflict under President Trump, growing domestic dissent, and concerns over government overreach and corruption. Ari Melber and guests analyze policy failures, the politicization of justice, attacks on the press, and the mounting pressure on American democracy as the administration nears its twilight. The show features in-depth discussions with Tom Nichols, Emily Bazelon, Josh Marshall, and Brian Tyler Cohn.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

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I. The Collapse of the Iran Ceasefire & Escalating Conflict

Repeated U.S. Airstrikes and Casualties

• As of this episode, the U.S. is in its 10th straight day of airstrikes, signaling the ceasefire's total breakdown.
• 3 more American troops were killed in a missile strike against a U.S. base in Jordan.
• The incident demonstrates that despite U.S. military might, American forces are still vulnerable in the region.

  “We are not impervious to being hit in the region and elsewhere.” — Ari Melber [00:55]

Mixed, Contradictory Messages from the Administration

• Trump’s initial promises that the war would be quick and that Iran’s missile threat was nearly eliminated have proven false.
• Contradictory statements about Iran and ballistic missiles reveal confusion and lack of a coherent policy.

  “This administration does not speak with one voice...it never explained what the mission or missions were.” — Ari Melber [02:37]

The Ceasefire: A “Desperate” Move

• Tom Nichols argues that the so-called ceasefire was never genuine—no side stopped shooting.
• The ceasefire agreements constituted significant U.S. concessions simply to begin talks.

  “The problem with the ceasefire is that nobody ever ceased firing.” — Tom Nichols [08:25]

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II. Strategic and Political Failure

U.S. Goals Unmet

• The U.S. failed to achieve any of its strategic aims: regime change, eliminating nuclear ambitions, or controlling the Strait of Hormuz.

  “We can talk about ceasefires...but this is war, and it’s a war the Americans right now are losing.” — Tom Nichols [07:21]

Plummeting Public Support

• Only 30% support the Iran war, making it the least popular U.S. conflict since the advent of polling.

  “The war in Vietnam took six years to become as reviled as the Iran war has become in six months.” — Ari Melber [10:42]

Lack of Democratic Process

• Trump launched a major war without consulting Congress or the American public.

  “Forget his name. Starting a war in the Middle East without any consultation with Congress, without any interaction with the public...” — Ari Melber [09:57]

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III. Corruption, Abuse of Power & Attacks on Institutions

DOJ Targeting Journalists and their Families

• The DOJ subpoenaed phone records not just of reporters involved in critical coverage but also their family members, described as "harassment" and “retaliation.”

  “I really can’t remember hearing about something like this before. It just seems like a strange move to make.” — Emily Bazelon [19:10]
  “This is stuff we see in all kinds of tin pot countries.” — Ari Melber [20:16]

Politicization of Justice & White Collar Crime

• The DOJ, under Trump, is described as protecting elites, pulling back on white-collar prosecutions, and focusing on retaliating against opponents (“enemies list”).

  “The Department of Justice just gets basically whittled down to what serves the immediate whims of Donald Trump.” — Josh Marshall [23:30] “The aim is to prosecute or not prosecute, depending on your proximity to Donald Trump.” — Josh Marshall [30:24]

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IV. Voting Rights and Voter Intimidation Risks

Push to Deploy ICE at Polls

• High-profile Republicans (e.g., Steve Bannon) are pushing for ICE agents at polling stations, widely viewed as a voter intimidation tactic.

  “They've clearly decided that that's a strategy that they think can benefit them. And, you know, it would be a violation of American law.” — Emily Bazelon [27:42]

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V. Trump’s Unpopularity and the Looming Lame Duck Era

A Warped "Swamp" Presidency

• As his administration nears its end, Trump is accused of looting the presidency for personal gain (e.g., trying to keep a foreign jet gifted to him).

  "It is, to borrow a phrase... the swamp, undrained." — Ari Melber [24:08]

International Rejection

• Trump was loudly booed at the World Cup and cropped from official photos, highlighting his continued unpopularity both in the U.S. and abroad.

  “His approval stuck in the 30s over the war, as we were covering at the top of the show, the economy and other failures.” — Ari Melber [35:10]

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VI. The Democratic Response, Power, and Change

Power, Accountability, & The Next Generation

• Brian Tyler Cohn discusses the need for Democrats to play political “hardball,” noting how Republicans succeed by demonizing and scapegoating minorities.

  “The problem is when they get into office, they never actually deliver on any of those things. It’s always about finding some small minority to beat down on as the cause of all of our nation’s problems.” — Brian Tyler Cohn [38:02]

Younger Leadership Rising

• Generational change is seen as crucial for Democratic renewal, with younger politicians gaining popularity for being more relatable and effective.

  “This should be a blinking red light to existing members...if you stand for the things that you claim to stand for, make way for people who are going to be more effective...shepherds of that exact message.” — Brian Tyler Cohn [41:16]

Corruption as a Defining Issue

• Corruption has become a top concern for voters, second only to affordability—suggesting it will be a central issue in upcoming elections.

  “People don’t like the idea of seeing the president of the United States banking billions of dollars on his office.” — Josh Marshall [31:59]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

| Timestamp | Quote & Speaker | |------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 00:55 | “We are not impervious to being hit in the region and elsewhere.” — Ari Melber | | 02:37 | “This administration does not speak with one voice. It does not have one agenda for this war.” — Ari Melber | | 07:21 | “This is war, and it’s a war the Americans right now are losing.” — Tom Nichols | | 08:25 | “The problem with the ceasefire is that nobody ever ceased firing.” — Tom Nichols | | 10:42 | “The war in Vietnam took six years to become as reviled as the Iran war has become in six months.” — Ari Melber | | 19:10 | “I really can’t remember hearing about something like this before.” — Emily Bazelon (on DOJ subpoenas targeting family members) | | 20:16 | “This is stuff we see in all kinds of tin pot countries.” — Ari Melber | | 23:30 | “The Department of Justice just gets basically whittled down to what serves the immediate whims of Donald Trump.” — Josh Marshall | | 24:08 | “It is, to borrow a phrase... the swamp, undrained.” — Ari Melber | | 27:42 | “It would be unprecedented. I think it would be a truly alarming development.” — Emily Bazelon | | 30:24 | “The aim is to prosecute or not prosecute, depending on your proximity to Donald Trump.” — Josh Marshall | | 31:59 | “People don’t like the idea of seeing the president of the United States banking billions of dollars on his office.” — Josh Marshall | | 38:02 | “It's always about finding some small minority to beat down on as the cause of all of our nation’s problems.” — Brian Tyler Cohn | | 41:16 | “If you stand for the things that you claim to stand for, make way for people who are going to be more effective... shepherds of that exact message.” — Brian Tyler Cohn |

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Important Segment Timestamps

• 00:45–05:12 — Opening discussion: escalation in Iran, death of U.S. soldiers, crumbling ceasefire
• 05:35–13:16 — Ari Melber and Tom Nichols analyze administration failures, goals of war, lack of public support
• 16:45–21:16 — Investigative reporting on Trump DOJ, attacks on press, and politicization of justice
• 27:05–29:19 — ICE at polling stations controversy and discussion on voter intimidation
• 35:08–37:04 — Trump’s unpopularity at the World Cup and analysis of Republican midterm strategies
• 38:02–41:53 — Brian Tyler Cohn on effective opposition strategies and generational change in politics

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Tone & Observations

• The episode is urgent, critical, and sometimes incredulous, with a focus on accountability, the erosion of democratic norms, and the stakes of unchecked power.
• The panelists use clear, direct language—often using metaphors (“fruit of the poison tree,” “the swamp undrained”) to illuminate complex issues.
• Segments combine policy analysis, political strategy, and straight talk about systemic risks.

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Final Takeaways

• The Iran war is a deepening quagmire, marked by administrative drift and public rejection.
• Trump’s administration faces criticisms for lack of transparency, legal overreach, corruption, and eroding faith in democracy.
• Democratic resilience is highlighted through investigative reporting, new leadership voices, and ongoing public pushback.
• As the Trump presidency wanes, the contours of a post-Trump political struggle are beginning to take shape, centering on issues of power, corruption, youth engagement, and the preservation of fundamental democratic principles.

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This summary captures the essence, arguments, and atmosphere of "The Beat" episode, providing context and content for those who may not have tuned in.

Transcript

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[News Anchor 1]

There's a lot of news to Money. The economic fallout from the war. Is it temporary power? Is this White House for sale?

[News Anchor 2]

Politics.

[News Anchor 1]

What is your message to the country right now?

[News Anchor 2]

Money, Power, Politics. With Stephanie rule, weekdays at 9am Eastern on Ms. Now.

[Ari Melber]

Welcome to the Beat, everyone. I'm Ari Melbourne. We begin with this Iran war escalating. We have other countries implicated again. And while this has been a sort of slow rolling failure of Trump's ceasefire and the timeline that he promised, it is something that, especially with everything else going on, is easy to lose track of. We actually are marking Today as the 10th straight day of US airstrikes, a sign that the ceasefire obviously is not holding. And in very serious news, three more American troops killed over the weekend. So the region, the people following this, the experts, are bracing for what looks like an escalating return to a war footing between these two countries. The army released photos of two of these slain Americans, Private Isabella Gonzalez and First Lieutenant Tyler James Feehan. The service members were killed in what appears to be a missile strike against a US Base in Jordan. Again, the spillover in the region is a reminder that while the United States does have a mightier military than Iran, something that was demonstrated in the initial strikes, we are not impervious to being hit in the region and elsewhere. Trump had claimed within a few weeks ago that Iran would have missiles, that this was going to get worked out, that the danger was going down. That is obviously not what has happened. And it's a contrast to Secretary Rubio's comments after this strike.

[Political Commentator 1]

So we lost people in Jordan after there was a strike. A missile got through. We shot down almost all the missiles. One leaked through, hit the wrong place. And tragically, and it's heartbreaking, the press

[Tom Nichols]

conference, you said you don't mind Iran having ballistic missiles.

[Ari Melber]

Can you elaborate on that? I want to make sure we understand.

[Political Commentator 2]

No, I want to. I'M saying that if other countries have them, it's a little bit unfair for them not to have some.

[Ari Melber]

This administration does not speak with one voice. It does not have one agenda for this war. It never explained what the mission or missions were. And if there is a sort of tragic irony that speaks to the anger that Trump faces across the country and from his base as well, it is that Donald Trump himself, whatever you think of his inability to make good on his promises, he clearly understood that the wider view and the opposition to our Mideast escapades over time made him a candidate who campaigned against the very thing he's doing now, against the open ended commitments in this region. And that is to say nothing of Donald Trump's many broken promises about the timeline for this war. He said it would end in weeks. He said it'd be very soon. He said we'd be out of there by now. And he also said this partial ceasefire that they started would be a quick road to the end of the war. It is not. As mentioned, we're in the tenth day of strikes. Trump has been pressed on all this, including over the weekend

[Political Commentator 2]

around this attendant. You said at the start of the war it would be four or five weeks. Well, you keep hitting me. This is a far bigger job that we're doing. If you look at it after a week and a half, not four weeks, a week and a half, two weeks, we stop them from probably, but I don't want to have the word probably.

[Ari Melber]

Gas prices are back over $4 a gallon today. And there are pockets of opposition on the sort of mainstream conservative media, to say nothing of the podcast and digital space which we've reported for you. Even before the ceasefire crumbled, the Iraq, excuse me, the Iran war. Obviously, the Iran war has been as big a fissure on the right online as the Epstein story. And we have seen folks like Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly, and of course the big one when you look at Joe Rogan, a kind of combined agreement that this is Trump's sort of biggest, most ongoing error. And a lot of Republicans privately say it is dooming their chances in the midterms where they already felt they had an uphill battle. I say all that to say that's sort of out in the conversation. Then you have mainstream voices sort of on the traditional network, like Fox's Maria Bartiromo, who are just sort of reminding their audience what many people are already angry about, that there is a inability to reconcile the claims that Iran was effectively defeated under the opening Trump operation and their ability to hit and kill US Service members. Now,

[News Anchor 1]

com says that there will be outsized action in retaliation. But I don't understand how it's possible that Iran has the capabilities to fight this way and continue to try to lash out at Gulf countries and US Military bases because the US has obliterated Iran's military. And the president continues to reiterate that.

[Ari Melber]

That's just sort of one of the premises of the questions that you're facing over there. The wider question ten days in is the question we started with, why are we in this war? How do we get out safely? I'm joined now by Tom Nichols, who writes for the Atlantic. He's a professor emeritus of national Security affairs at the prestigious US Naval War College. His new piece is Trump Owes Americans a Better Explanation About Iran. Tom, let's start with where we're at. Americans have been told a lot of different things by their government. Are we now at war with Iran? What level war is this just in the context of since it started, we've

[Tom Nichols]

been at war with Iran now for 20 weeks. We launched major military operation with the express goal of regime change, which is what the President was talking about on the first night of the war. When that didn't happen, of course, the president and his team invented all kinds of other reasons, including this really just fanciful idea that without this war, Iran was two weeks away from a nuclear bomb, which nobody really believes. I'm not even sure the President believes that. And so we've been at war. It's not some different flavor of war. It is two militaries, two relatively large countries fighting for their political goals, and so far, only one of them is achieving those goals. That is the Iranians. Their goals are to survive, to maintain control over the strait, control they didn't have before this war started, and to come out of this in charge in the region and maintaining power over their own people. The United States has put forward all kinds of goals. Stop Iran's nuclear ambitions, open the strait, defang the Iranian military. The Americans have achieved none of their strategic goals. But make no mistake about it, we can talk about ceasefires and major operations and incursions and excursions and day trips and whatever the President wants to call it. This is war, and it's a war the Americans right now are losing.

[Ari Melber]

The President sold the partial or first step ceasefire as a reason to kind of wrap this up. And the people could look away, the oil markets could be calmed. We heard all of that. Can we say now where the ceasefire stands? Obviously it's failing but can it be sort of pulled back together as an operating agreement, or what are the off ramp options for the United States at this point?

[Tom Nichols]

Well, the problem with the ceasefire is that nobody ever ceased firing. That undermines the whole structure of a ceasefire. A ceasefire means that people stop shooting. The Iranians didn't stop, we didn't stop. And so the ceasefire instrument itself was multiple points that basically were capitulations to the Iranians in order to get them to agree to talk about negotiating. And I think really it was just another sign of how desperate the White House has been to get out of this thing that they never thought was going to go the distance. I mean, I think we always have to bear in mind that everything you're seeing now is all the same. Not to steal a legal metaphor from you, Ari, but it's all the same fruit of the poison tree, which is that the president really expected regime change in those first days. And when that didn't happen, everything else fell apart. And so it's trying to keep the strait open, it's trying to bring the table, it's trying to get gas prices down. What are the off ramps to do that? The Americans could stop shooting, I suppose, but that doesn't really change anything. Whether we keep bombing or don't keep bombing, that's not changing the reality in the Strait of Hormuz. And it's not going to dislodge, at least not yet, the Iranian regime. So I don't think there are any good solutions. I don't think there are any good off ramps at this point.

[Ari Melber]

Yeah, I appreciate your candor and clarity. That's sort of the big problem a lot of people see in your field. They sometimes talk about civil military relations. In Congress, they would always talk about how any serious foreign policy initiative, let alone a war, needs the informed consent of the American people. We seem to be up against that very problem. Now, apart from how people feel about Donald Trump politically, his style, just the baseline of a US President, forget his name. Starting a war in the Middle east without any consultation with Congress, without any interaction with the public, the American people. And what we have from that. I'll put this striking headline on the Economist, which is sort of a centrist outlet, if you want to call him that. Iran war is America's least popular since the advent of polls. They note net approval for the decision to attack Iran by Mr. Trump stands at, quote, 30% among Americans. The war in Vietnam took six years to become as reviled as the Iran war has become in six months. Can you speak on just how striking that is in a country that often gives the military and these kind of operations some benefit of the doubt at first, especially if there's a presentation to the country and the Congress and what that does for sort of the leverage going forward.

[Tom Nichols]

Well, first, I don't think anybody in this country is blaming the United States military. They're doing, they're executing operations that they've been ordered to execute. They don't really have a choice about that. If the President says go, they have to go. The problem here is that this, for the first time really ever in the modern era, the President has launched a major war. This is not, you know, a Venezuela type operation. This isn't, you know, Eisenhower in Guatemala or something. I mean, this is not something far away, a small, far away operation. This is war with a major country of 93 million people that is traditional enemy of the United States for a half century. If you're going to do that and there are arguments to do it, the Iranian regime is one of the worst, most ghastly regimes on the face of the earth. If you want to go to the American people and say, listen, this cancer has to be excised from the global body and here's why I think we have to do it now. And here are the risks, here are the costs we may pay. Here's what I'm going to ask from Congress. Okay, you know, he then maybe you can actually get some kind of consensus for action. Instead. He and again, this goes back to that, that poison tree. He said, I don't need any of that because this thing's going to be over before it even starts. This thing will be over in a week, two weeks. I don't need to, you know, go and. But then he had, in 20 weeks he's found time to go on TV and carp about elections on prime time. But he's never taken the time to go into prime time and say, my fellow citizens, here's what you need to know about this war that we're in. World away.

[Ari Melber]

Well, the headline banner we have on the screen refers to the point you made did a second ago. War in the forefront as his election propaganda falters. I mean that contrast is so striking. And he's, as you mentioned, not only trying to re litigate his past loss, but carping about the TV networks not giving him his precious airtime because they didn't deem it newsworthy. Obviously if he was giving an update about the newsworthy and trouble in the war, in my experience in the news Most networks carry that war address. He hasn't found that to be on his. Yeah, he hasn't found that to be on his priority list as Americans are killed in this war. Tom, as always, we appreciate your perspective and background. Thank you, sir. Thank you. Appreciate it. Coming up, we'll look at this clash over keeping ICE agents out of the polls for these midterms. Trump finding that the opposition to him in America and beyond stretches from politics to sports and culture and the most watched sporting event in the world. We'll show you some of that. He didn't like it. But coming up, we turn to Trump's DOJ going after a journalist's mother, Emily Bazelon and Josh Marshall, on the stakes. While we don't normalize this, we do scrutinize it when we're back in 90 seconds. Turning to attacks on the First Amendment and the freedom of speech and the press in this country, which at this point are right out of one of those dystopian novels. We are reporting on, by all accounts, what looks to be an extreme excessive effort to misuse investigative powers by Trump's DOJ because of accurate reporting in the New York Times that I guess just embarrassed him. We have reporting that the DOJ is seeking the phone records of not only New York Times journalists, which the Times is fighting in court and those might get quashed, but also their relatives, including at least one reporter's mother and two of the reporters spouses. These are subpoenas to third party phone service providers. So there will ultimately be a clash in the United States and in court over these third party companies. It's not like it's even only up to the people surveilled in the New York Times. This is part of an effort to go after confidential sources who provide information for articles about the security capabilities of President Trump's new Air Force One jet. I'm reading from the New York Times ongoing coverage of a story that they have been thrust into apparently because of the accuracy and impact of their journalism. It's in addition to subpoenas, also trying to get those reporters to testify. Trump was also pressed by other reporters about this ongoing debacle, which many people foresaw, that there was a corruption problem with him taking this jet from a foreign government. There was also a security problem with not doing it the normal, safe way. And here is some of that exchange. This way does not have anti.

[Political Commentator 2]

Well, it has, it has a lot. And, you know, it has a lot of capability. But as I understand it, in about a month or so they're going to send it to have it be maxed out. So they're going to be sending it and they'll have it be maxed out. It'll take about a month.

[Ari Melber]

Yeah, in about a month it might be up to par. But again, that just brings back the absurd situation we are in, that the President, United States, who is involved, of course, in running this country, and we all have a stake in that, and his team and a lot of other people, you could call them all, you know, innocent people, public servants. Otherwise, on a subpar plane that he admits is a month away from being operational, also, he could take a gift from a foreign government. You might remember all of that talk in the first term about how the Constitution bars this kind of thing. There's an emoluments clause, and it was for far smaller items than a jet and far less risky items than the idea of using the foreign jet and getting people potentially hurt. This is just one of several legal controversies for Trump at doj. The department has also been, quote, pulling back on its normal role prosecuting white collar corporate crime. In other words, leave the elites and the Wall street folks alone. Under Donald Trump's elitist government, the DoJ gutted the public Integrity Unit and there are scandalous reports that it doesn't even want the FBI to investigate ICE confrontations which could include the killing of American citizens. All of that is just the recent headlines. Then there's the wider enemies list we've keep showing you and updating this should not be normalized. Many of these cases are ongoing. There are members of Congress awaiting trial in Donald Trump's America. I want to bring in the New York Times Magazine's Emily Bazelon and Josh Marshall, founder and editor chief of Talking Points Memo. Emily, it doesn't ever just stop with Trump exercising an abuse of power. It appears to proliferate. We had the civil lawsuits against the papers, we had the attacks, we had the enemies list I showed you. We had some journalist subpoenas. Now it's going out to family members. A lot of experts say this has the makings of unlawful harassment rather than a real investigation. What do you see playing out here?

[Emily Bazelon]

You know, one thing that strikes me is what a normal kind of reporting story this is, right? You get a tip that this plane doesn't have all the defense capabilities is supposed to have. The president's on it. Of course, you run down that tip. And of course you protect your sources because they are telling you something confidentially, because they are concerned about the national security implications of what they're learning. You know, all the reporters who have been subpoenaed are hardworking, excellent journalists who are doing their jobs. And the idea that they would receive subpoenas is surprising and shocking enough, but that this would extend to their family members. I really can't remember hearing about something like this before. It also just seems like a strange move to make. What reporter makes calls on their mom or their spouse's phone? That's like not how we do it. So I also just kind of don't get that part of it.

[Ari Melber]

Well, that's why I mentioned the harassment that the pretext against the reporter. Where there are times to be clear that there can be lawful investigative means used to try to locate people who are breaking the law. So to track down a government leaker, as a usually last resort, those investigative means can be used. This happened so fast, within the span of about 48 hours, the Times notes, and now involves people who have no known link, that it looks more like an effort to rattle people. That you might be very brave having chosen to do a certain job, but when your parents start getting freaked out, it affects you. I mean, this is, Josh, this is stuff we see in all kinds of tin pot countries. I'd like your reaction on all of that. And I want to flag some of the reporting from your outlet on a Prosecutor at the J6 March running this so called task force. Brian lynch, months into a new job as a federal prosecutor in Maryland, he attended the march on the Capitol. His presence that day was not reported until this account. But lynch remained a DOJ in this second administration, got the promotion of running in the so called task force to prosecute left wing political violence. The DOJ has indicated that he did not enter the Capitol and therefore they don't view him as liable for any criminal conduct there. Your reporting and your reaction to these crackdowns, Josh?

[Josh Marshall]

Well, in the first, it's a great piece, the exclusive that Josh Kavinsky had last week. You know, the best I think you can say about Brian lynch is that he seems to have a decent amount of experience with domestic terrorism and political violence. So I guess, you know, that's a humorous way of looking at it since he was at January 6, as you say, there's no evidence he actually broke into the Capitol, but he was part of that whole insurrection trying to overthrow the US government. So that's definitely worth knowing. On the other point with the thing with the plane, what we're seeing here is this slow factor, faster than we'd like, but ongoing process of the Department of Justice just gets melded to the psyche of Donald Trump. There have been other stories over, say, the last six months that involve real national security issues where a federal government might have some real questions about, did you get access to classified information here? That's always a delicate matter, but we know what this is about. This is the thing that Donald Trump is really the most excited about in his whole presidency, getting this fancy plane. And this embarrassed him. And that is why we are seeing this. Not because there's any question that national security was endangered or that there's any kind of issue of classified intelligence. So it's, it's of a piece with all the retribution, indictments, kind of ongoing harassment. And it's the same thing with basically getting out of the white collar crime business, because those people are all Donald Trump's friends. And when you're operating at the level of corruption that you currently see by this president, by people around him, by his family members, it's going to get awkward to be, you know, having white collar crime prosecutions, because they're gonna look very similar to what the president himself is doing. So you just, you just see on all of these fronts, the Department of Justice just gets basically whittled down to what serves the immediate whims of Donald Trump, and that is punishing and retaliating against the people he perceives as his enemies, keeping his friends out of PR and getting in the grill of people who generate headlines that make him feel bad.

[Ari Melber]

That's the. And, Josh, I mean, yeah, and the plane is something that he cares about because he plans to take it home with him. He plans to keep his personal property. He leaves office. Yes. A reminder that for all the bluster of Bannon and 28, Donald Trump knows that, as you know, the phrase, Josh, as Drake said, the jig is up. He wasn't the first to say it, but it's up. This will be a lame duck presidency. They may do all sorts of things to try to help other Republicans in 28. Jack Smith is warned about that. We can all take that seriously. But Donald Trump understands, and he's seen the Supreme Court deal him a bunch of losses lately if he couldn't get them to come along for the ballot escapade. They're certainly not going to just chuck the third term limit. And so he's leaving. And like someone who greedily wants to do all the corruption he can on the way out, he really wants this plane and wants to take it with him. It is, to borrow a phrase, Josh, it is the swamp undrained.

[Josh Marshall]

You know, some people will remember the bust out episode of the Sopranos, right, where a Mafia family kind of, they have a business and they just want to leech it of all its value, you know, kind of sell off all the property, and when everything's gone, you just burn the place down, you pocket the insurance money. And that is really kind of, I think we're seeing an analog of that in the way that Donald Trump is kind of treating the presidency and the country right now. Whereas on the one hand, his popularity is declining. The big things that he is trying to do are not going terribly well, but he's not doing any kind of big adjustment to try to manage what's gonna happen in the midterms or any like that. He's kind of in a, in, into a, you know, the YOLO stage of his presidency. Right. I'm gonna, I'm gonna kind of leech as many dollars out of this, out of this racket as I can and take as much with me as I can. And then the plane is just part of that.

[Ari Melber]

Yeah, it's a big plane. Yeah. Emily, this gives you a brief commercial break to come up with your Sopranos reference. But I wanted to also turn to the very reporting that Josh mentioned coming out of the Wall Street Journal. On the other, corporate enforcement. We have that and a lot more when we come back. Simone Sanders Townsend and I have known each other for more than a decade, tussling over politics and policy when she worked in the White House, and I reported on it.

[Stacey Abrams]

And now we're friends and colleagues.

[Ari Melber]

And on our podcast, Clock it, we are positioning ourselves at the intersection of culture and politics.

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[Ari Melber]

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[Ari Melber]

We're going to have to have ice. It's required by the. It's going to be a minimum requirement. You're going to have to have ICE at these polling stations. Steve Bannon pushing again to have ICE agents at the polling places, while Republicans are worried about losing these midterms. The contrast, Emily, there is that the attorney General nominee basically went along with ruling that out. When pressed under oath last week, Todd Blanche said, well, he would follow the law and was maybe on better behavior trying to get confirmed, while others keep pushing this. Your view on why we keep hearing about this?

[Emily Bazelon]

I think we keep hearing about this because Republicans are desperate to figure out a way to win the midterms and intimidating voters by saying that they're going to be, you know, ICE agents, other federal law enforcement officers at the polls. They've clearly decided that that's a strategy that, that they think can benefit them. And, you know, it would be a violation of American law. It would be unprecedented. I think it would be a truly alarming development. So I'm not surprised that Blanche's denials last week have not put this to rest. I think we're going to keep hearing about it. Whether it actually happens or not is a different question. But the intimidation factor you can so fear now just by talking about it.

[Ari Melber]

Right. And that goes to something where they might not actually be technically breaking the law, if you want to use a strict legal analysis, but they're pushing a kind of propaganda and fear tactics, especially against any voter, including potentially an American citizen who's in a minority group or thinks they would be targeted by the type of targeting that ICE is doing. And stay, you know what, maybe I'll just skip it. It's scary. It's a hassle. Look what they're doing to people. EMILY we had the mention by Josh of the other side of the sort of the corporate corruption, the DOJ and the Wall Street Journal, Murdoch owned paper reporting that on several matters, Eagle Bank, Abbott Laboratories, big companies, DOJ declined to charge companies even when the prosecutors internally did think that executives were involved in wrongdoing. Where does that fit into this sort of upside down version of law enforcement?

[Emily Bazelon]

EMILY well, I think this had been going on for months that the Justice Department has been pulling back on white collar prosecutions. They're a big deal to conduct. So part of what's happening is that as the department becomes hollowed out, there are fewer lawy who really know how to mount these big cases. But I think also, and you can see this in the Journal's reporting, you see political appointees overruling the judgments that career prosecutors are making, that yeah, there's real wrongdoing here and we can prove it in court and we should charge these folks. Someone higher up the food chain is saying, oh, you know, maybe not. And that is a message that they are sending down, probably because generally speaking, like Josh was saying, they're just really not interested in sending a strong message to corporate America right now that there's a risk. You know, this is another card the administration can play to try to make sure it continues to have support among Republican donors.

[Ari Melber]

Josh, just briefly on that.

[Josh Marshall]

Yeah, that's exactly right. I mean, you know, the Justice Department is supposed to be a department that enforces federal Law across the board. There's a lot of different laws, and administrations can have slightly different approaches to that. But what we see here is the aim is to prosecute or not prosecute, depending on your proximity to Donald Trump. And we just, you know, that is sort of the key that opens up every question about this, Goj. Simple as that.

[Ari Melber]

And then, Josh, do you feel like there's a right response to that? I mean, we've talked about this. Reporting the sort of downtrodden or cynical view becomes what's the point of it all? And corruption sort of begets more corruption or a kind of a hopelessness. And yet it is also the case that the government's strong response to this shows that reporters still doing their job, finding out leads, typing up words about what's actually happening in the government. It rattles this. A very powerful federal government that would claim it doesn't care and dying media and, quote, failing New York Times. And then it seems they care a lot.

[Josh Marshall]

They do care a lot. And they care a lot in the sense of there's Donald Trump's feelings, but they also care a lot, just in the basic sense of politics. There was a very interesting discussion I was reading a couple days ago about something people are talking about a lot now. Popular constitutionalism. Right. Who is really in charge of our state, of our government? And the people are. And we have elections every two years. And I saw a poll just a few days ago that after affordability, the second biggest thing that people are worried about in this country is corruption, political corruption. People don't like the idea of seeing the president of the United States, you know, banking billions of dollars on his office. So people hear about these things. They get motivated to do things in elections. And that's how. That is how that's how we conduct things in the United States. And there's a lot of. There's a lot of small d Democratic muscle memory in this country of people not liking to be ruled by dictators, not liking to be ruled by autocrats, not liking to be ruled by a clique that is, you know, as I said, banking billions dollars when they're supposed to be serving the American people. So I don't think it's true at all that there's nothing people can do. There's that line that is sort of big in the Trump era. You know, nothing matters. Things do matter. And as you say, we can. The. The White House is. Is telling us that by their own actions, they don't like being embarrassed, they don't like having their corruption revealed.

[Ari Melber]

Yeah. And they clearly think that things can change, lots change so fast that people feel like where's the accountability? But Trump also knows he was the first former president to ever be indicted, which happened multiple times. And the sun is setting on this administration as a matter of the calendar. And then you have the future of only they know how much they did and who else could get in more trouble for it in the future, particularly if, as you say, the facts come out and he becomes the past. And Republican senators aren't afraid of him anymore because he's term limited out of public life and he's polling at 30%. Right. And there's a lot of anger for all the stuff they stole. As you say, Josh and Emily, thanks to both of you. We're gonna fit in a break. When we come back. Trump booed at the World cup to an audience of many million. They know Donald Trump in New Jersey, where this World cup match had the booze raining down. When he walked out with FIFA's President. When Spain was celebrating its victory, you could see Trump sort of lingering on stage. Australian broadcasters also discussing whether he'd stay in the photos

[Political Commentator 2]

in 2026. The champions of the world are Spain.

[Josh Marshall]

Is now.

[Ari Melber]

So they can, I can edit him out of that. They can edit him out of that. That's real time commentary. And it happened as Forbes reported, the FIFA World account posted this shot where if you look closely, you can see the leader of the free world's right arm getting cropped. Now, Trump's unpopularity abroad is well known, but again, this was match held. And the boos you hear are inside the United States, his approval stuck in the 30s over the war. As we were covering at the top of the show, the economy and other failures. Republicans close to the operation say it's time to make the midterms a kind of quote hate election. Republicans admit Axios reports the midterm forecast is bleak. But if they can just make voters hate Dems more than Republicans, maybe the losses won't be as bad. I want to bring in a special guest. Brian Tyler Cohn is the host of the no Lie podcast, which has billions of views online. He's interviewed all kinds of heavyweights across the Democratic Party, including that rare get in American politics, a recent sit down with former President Obama.

[Brian Tyler Cohn]

We've seen the de evolution of the discourse. How do we come back from a place that we have fallen into?

[Josh Marshall]

Well, first of all, I think it's important to recognize that the majority of the American people find this behavior deeply troubling.

[Tom Nichols]

It is true that it gets attention.

[Josh Marshall]

It's true that it's a distraction.

[Ari Melber]

Cohen is also the author of the new book the Day how to Wield Power in a Post Trump World. You can get that right now wherever books are sold. Brian is one of these new voices that we've been listening to. As you know, the world keeps evolving. Welcome back, Ari.

[Brian Tyler Cohn]

Thanks for having me.

[Ari Melber]

Yeah, the top story here relates to your book. So reading from a passage, you talk about how before 2024, this duality that Bill Clinton had discussed strong and wrong, was beating weak and right. You say you could say that demonizing opposition is bad for the country. You can't say it's worse than Trump's presidency. The truth is Republicans have been playing the long game. Dems playing the wrong game bars Brian. And you go on to write, why are Dems so far behind with this kind of politics? It works. Look at the two times Dems did play hardball. You point to 96 in 2012, where the campaigns really did diminish their opponents sailing to victory, rather than the talk we've heard so often about going high. How does that apply today when we see these reports, everything from abuse of power, revenge indictments, ice at the polls, to a propaganda campaign that Axios reports would be just about hating Dems?

[Brian Tyler Cohn]

Well, look, they have run that playbook over and over and over again, and largely it's been successful. I mean, how many elections can you remember, Ari, where Republicans had deferred to this idea of migrant caravans or demonizing gay people or trans people, as was the case in this latest election. There's always some minority to punch down on, always some scapegoat. That's the problem. That's the cause of all of our woes, as opposed to the people who are actually causing a lot of the problems in this country, who in large part are the millionaires and billionaires who benefit from the policies of this administration? It is notable that you have Republicans who continuously run on punching down on these small minorities, but at the same time, the first thing they do is pass tax cuts, for example, that heap favor, heap benefits onto the wealthiest Americans in this country as we see income inequality explode. And by the way, Republicans know that this is potent. That's why they run on it. But the problem is when they get into office, they never actually deliver on any of those things. It's always about finding some small minority to beat down on as the cause of all of our nation's problems.

[Ari Melber]

What are the issues that you think currently work best against Trump.

[Brian Tyler Cohn]

The issues that currently work best against Trump. Well, I mean, his blatant corruption and his inability, unwillingness to deliver on the very things that he promised on the campaign trail. Both of those things in concert, I think, tell a really clear story about who this president is working for, which would be bad enough unto itself, but even worse, given the fact that this is somebody who came into office on this pretext that he was gonna focus on the little guy. It was him who decided to run an America first campaign. And really, the only person that stood to benefit from this is not the 350 million people in this country. It's Donald Trump himself. He's the one who's tripled his net worth. He's the one who's encrusting the Oval Office in gold, building himself a monument in the form of a ballroom and maybe a triumphal arch, who's gotten a new airplane out of this that's gonna, of course, go to him after he's out of office. And so, again, the person who stands to benefit from all of Trump's priorities as we see costs rise, as we see healthcare gutted, as we see food assistance gutted, as we see gas prices rise, is only one guy. It's Trump.

[Ari Melber]

What do you see in the early primaries, which, of course, are just a smattering, and this conversation about generational change. We follow this now across two elderly presidents, an elderly Supreme Court, Mitch McConnell, mystery about his health status. But I think we'd all be fair. Fair to note it's a problem in both parties and across every branch of government. How much of that does account. Does that account for some of the energy behind younger Democratic candidates?

[Brian Tyler Cohn]

I think that's a huge driver of the future of the Democratic Party. I mean, there's no doubt, as you mentioned, rightfully, that gerontocracy is a problem in this country. My generation, millennials, have largely been locked out of power forever. And frankly, some of the millen that are getting into office now are the most popular politicians in America, whether it's Zoram Hamdani in New York, whether it's AOC also in New York, whether it's Jon Ossoff down in Georgia. This is what happens when you actually make a bridge to the next generation and allow people who are more charismatic, more dynamic, more articulate, more tech savvy to have their spot in the spotlight, have their chance in the spotlight to actually show what they can do. And so I think this should be a blinking red light to existing members of the Democratic caucus that that, you know, if you stand for the things that you claim to stand for, make way for people who are going to be more effective arbiters, more effective shepherds of that exact message. Because the people who are seeing popularity, the people who are able to better relate to the electorate, are those younger people who've grown up in these ecosystems where the vast majority of Americans are already getting their news.

[Ari Melber]

Yeah. And that you could be a great shepherd and still eventually say it's time to have a shepherd's retirement, let somebody else out on the hills. You know Brian, as mentioned, a lot of folks know you online folks know you from the Obama interview to our viewers. We appreciate you coming back and that book. If you want to learn more about what Brian's saying is the day after how to wield power in a post Trump world, you can Google that or get it wherever books are sold. We will be right back with more of the Beat.

[News Anchor 2]

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[Stacey Abrams]

We have to remember that all of this, from the voting right infractions to the weaponization of dni, it's all about how does this party hold on to power when they are losing at the gas pump, they're losing in the homes and they are losing the American trust. While I do not know what they will do, we cannot discount that they will do something because they are desperate to win.

[Ari Melber]

A warning from Stacey Abrams, a Democratic leader on voting rights, speaking there to Ms. Now, which speaks to one of our sort of themes for the night, being vigilant without freaking out about some of the challenges we face to uphold democracy. We will be right back.

[Political Commentator 1]

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