Nobel Economist: Trump's War Driving Up Prices

Summary

Podcast Summary: The Beat with Ari Melber

Episode: Nobel Economist: Trump's War Driving Up Prices
Date: March 31, 2026
Host: Ari Melber, MSNBC
Notable Guests: Richard Stengel, Barbara Starr, Andrew Weissman, Sherrod Brown, Paul Krugman

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Main Theme

This episode of The Beat focuses on the escalating oil crisis caused by the Trump administration’s war in Iran. Ari Melber and his guests examine the economic, political, and strategic ramifications—especially how the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has spiked global oil prices and contributed to market turmoil. The show also follows fallout from war decisions, including rare bipartisan criticism, legal controversies related to the Supreme Court, January 6 lawsuits, and how these issues play into the upcoming midterms. Nobel laureate Paul Krugman provides in-depth analysis of the economic crisis, while populist sentiment and historic protests signal widespread public backlash.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. How Trump’s War Impacted Oil Prices and Global Markets

• Ari Melber opens ([01:01]): Outlines how President Trump’s policies—especially war in Iran—have led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz (a chokepoint for 20% of global oil). This has spiked gas prices to $4/gallon and tanked stock markets.
  • “Trump signaling a possible end to this war, but it would leave the US and our allies in a much worse position.” ([01:01])
  • Wall Street Journal reports Trump aides worried that a forced reopening of the Strait could drag out the war. Trump appears ready to “leave, making it other people’s problems.”
  • U.S. policy confusion acknowledged; the risk of a “Trump recession” is floated.

2. Strategic and Military Ramifications

• Richard Stengel ([04:00-05:34]):
  • Satirizes Trump’s strategy as “talks loudly and carries a small stick.”
  • Critiques lack of preparation for Iran closing the Strait:
    • “They didn’t even seem to calculate that the Strait of Hormuz would be closed...He caused its closing and now he’s going to leave, with it only half open. That’s…half a victory.” ([05:24])
• Barbara Starr ([05:46-06:51]):
  • Emphasizes how Iran’s newfound control could mean tolls or selective access to the Strait, further destabilizing markets and raising prices at U.S. gas pumps.

3. Bipartisan and Military Criticism

• Segment with conservative pushback ([06:51-08:29]):
  • Top conservative and military voices are shown venting frustration at Trump’s choices.
  • Stengel references the “Pottery Barn rule”—“You break it, you own it”—contrasted with Trump’s deflection of responsibility:
    • “The Trump rule is we broke it, you own it, you take care of it. That’s what he’s talking to with the allies now.” ([07:31])

4. White House Process and International Response

• Barbara Starr ([09:03-11:24]):
  • Raises whether Trump or just “his cheerleaders” were briefed, highlighting serious possible misjudgment at the highest level.
  • “For a pope to use [the term ‘off ramp’]…is fascinating. The pope is urging President Trump by name to take that road.” ([10:33])

5. The Oil Crisis Explained by Paul Krugman

• Krugman’s Expert Analysis ([13:19-21:13]):
  • Physical shortages about to hit Asia and Europe as pre-war oil deliveries run out:
    • “The world has been living on oil that was already in transit…that runs out now. This is getting real. This is an actual ‘where is the oil?’…This gets really, really ugly if we don’t [reopen].” ([14:03])
  • Diesel price hikes are even worse than gasoline:
    • “The effects on diesel fuel, which everything runs on—every truck runs on diesel—are enormous…Diesel is up $1.70 a gallon. Jet fuel has doubled. The price of fertilizer…has surged.” ([17:30])
  • Causality:
    • “This is all one man’s decisions that have brought us to this pass.” ([16:50])
  • Market realities:
    • “$200 a barrel oil is not unreasonable...It does not take very much...for us to get to that. And that is really quite catastrophic for the market.” ([20:48])

6. The Supreme Court, Trump Legal Theories, and Constitutionality

• Ari Melber and Andrew Weissman ([23:29-29:48]):
  • Trump’s DOJ pushes an extreme theory to the SCOTUS—challenging birthright citizenship under the 14th Amendment.
    • Weissman: “It is one that has never, ever been accepted by any court ever in the history of this amendment.” ([27:22])
    • "It's so against what our nation stands for…You really do have to hearken back to the president's remarks about what kind of country you come from, that if you essentially, if you're a sort of white Protestant, we want you..." ([30:29])
  • The ACLU views the effort as an attempt to change U.S. demographics for political gain.

7. January 6th Lawsuits: Legal Norms Turned Upside Down

• Andrew Weissman ([32:29-35:44]):
  • Explains lawsuits from January 6 protestors and Michael Flynn:
    • "You have people who you can see on videotape were part of a violent protest...the thing that's so outrageous here is that type of lawsuit...are routinely rejected by the courts." ([34:07])
  • Worries about the DOJ's willingness to settle these claims:
    • "If there's no good faith basis for this settlement...what is the difference between a 'settlement' and...just stealing the money from the public?" ([35:40])

8. Populist Backlash and “No Kings” Protests

• Ari Melber and guests ([36:15-38:13]):
  • Recaps massive, widespread anti-Trump "No Kings" protests—organizers estimate 8 million participants, "20 times" the size of the Tea Party rallies.
  • Polls show historic unpopularity for Trump: 71% disapproval on high prices, 61% on jobs, overall 62% disapproval, leading to congressional retirements.

9. Sherrod Brown: Populist Politics and Economic Discontent

• Sherrod Brown (Ohio Senate candidate) ([39:19-43:02]):
  • Describes historic protest turnout:
    • “There were more than 100 of these rallies around Ohio. Big cities, small town, rural areas... Crowds are bigger than I’ve ever seen.” ([39:19])
    • Critiques system “rigged” for special interests, Republicans disconnected from economic pain:
      • “They don't see John Husted and others fighting for lower prices...They just don't see help with tariffs, with what's happened to soybean markets.” ([41:37])
  • Touts small-dollar fundraising to combat Wall Street and oil company money.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

Richard Stengel:

• “Trump does the opposite. He talks loudly and carries a small stick.” ([04:04])

Barbara Starr:

• “The strait was open before this Trump war started and now it is not. So he leaves it...with Iran for the first time in economic control of the strait.” ([05:46])
• “[Pope Leo] is urging President Trump by name. So that puts another mark on the wall for the entire international community about just how serious this is all being taken.” ([10:24])

Paul Krugman:

• “The effects on diesel fuel, which everything runs on—every truck runs on diesel—are enormous... Diesel is up $1.70 a gallon. Jet fuel has doubled.” ([17:30])
• “This is the greatest shock to global energy supplies ever. It’s worse than the 1970s. And it’s all because of one man’s decision.” ([18:25])

Andrew Weissman:

• “It's one where I actually am viewing this very much as a litmus test for the Supreme Court justices...never, ever been accepted by any court ever in the history of this amendment.” ([27:22])
• “If there's no good faith basis for this settlement, my question is, what is the difference between a quote unquote settlement and...just stealing the money from the public?” ([35:40])

Sherrod Brown:

• “People recognize the system’s rigged against them...The system’s more rigged than it’s ever been... Crowds are bigger than I’ve ever seen.” ([39:19])

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Important Timestamps

• 01:01 – Ari Melber: Introduction to Trump’s impact on war & oil prices
• 04:00 – Richard Stengel: Strategic analysis and Trump’s “small stick” approach
• 05:46 – Barbara Starr: Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz
• 13:19 – Paul Krugman: Real-world oil shortages about to hit
• 16:50 – Krugman: “This is all Trump policy.”
• 19:35 – Krugman: Markets, possible $200/barrel oil
• 23:29 – Ari Melber & Andrew Weissman: Legal challenge to the 14th Amendment
• 32:29 – Weissman: January 6th lawsuits and settlements
• 36:15 – Melber: “No Kings” protest impact & poll numbers
• 39:19 – Sherrod Brown: Populist response and economic pain

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Conclusion and Tone

The episode is urgent yet analytical, blending economic expertise (Krugman), inside Washington insight (Stengel, Starr), legal acumen (Weissman), and populist political reaction (Sherrod Brown). The consensus: Trump’s war is causing a direct economic and political crisis, signaling unprecedented public, legal, and institutional backlash. The show maintains a tone of factual concern, laced with both sardonic and populist turns of phrase, for an audience looking beyond headlines at the real world impact.

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For listeners unable to catch the episode, this summary delivers a thorough, structured recount of all key arguments, opinions, and moments, with direct quotes and timestamps for deeper context.

Transcript

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[Ari Melber]

Welcome to the beat, everyone. I'm Ari Melbourne. We begin with Trump signaling a possible end to this war, but it would leave the US and our allies in a much worse position. That aspect of this is not in debate. Indeed, US policy planning from inside the Trump administration has warned about exactly the outcome. Trump might leave us with Trump mulling abandoning what has been everyone's agreed upon reason for this region to matter, the oil. But he would abandon US Strength. He would leave without reopening the key straight over moves. 20% of the world's oil moves through the strait. Iran is blocking it. And that is a huge reason why prices are spiking. Gas now $4 a gallon. That is already having other impacts. The stock market doesn't think with just one mind. But we can show you amid this war and the uncertainty Trump has caugh cause, stocks are now on pace for the worst quarter in four years. You can see the drop right there. You'd have to go back many years in a different administration to find anything like this. Some traders call it a gut punch that will become a Trump recession. Not all recessions can be cleanly blamed on the incumbent. But if this recession is a cause of this, it's caused by this war. Well, that's Trump. Wall Street Journal reporting about the strait that in recent days Trump and aides assessed a mission to pry open the choke point could push the conflict beyond his timeline. And Trump now having started the war, says maybe that's just other People's problems telling countries to get their own oil. The president was clear this morning in his truth that there are countries around the world who ought be prepared to step up on this critical waterway as well. It's not just the United States Navy.

[Paul Krugman]

Last time I checked, there was supposed

[Ari Melber]

to be a big bad Royal Navy that could be prepared to do things like that. Amid this obvious policy confusion, what in energy terms might be called a surrender on the very key issue in the region, there's also talk in the White House about mulling boots on the ground, having the preparedness to do that, whether that is a strategic threat or something serious. You should know There are over 50,000 U.S. troops in the region. I want to bring in Richard Stengel, an MSNow analyst and a former diplomat under President Obama, and Barbara Starr, the veteran Pentagon reporter, the author of a substack newsletter. Barbara Starr reports two well known voices on these issues. Richard, you may know the old, the old phrase talk softly and carry a big stick. I'm only talking softly because I'm getting over a cold. It's not a geostrategic signal. But I say that so viewers know I'm speaking softly. Only for that reason. I'll let both of your voices carry your thoughts, Richard.

[Richard Stengel]

Well, Ari, I hope you get better. You know, Trump does the opposite. He talks loudly and carries a small stick. I mean, the stick that he's been using in Iran hasn't quite worked. I mean, one thing we know that Trump is good at is quitting. So he's looking at the problems that this has all caused him. I mean, part of what Iran's strategy here was they can't defeat the US In a military sense, but they can cause so many problems for America that Trump would basically cry ouch and leave. I mean, the other thing that has happened, and you alluded to this too, they've constantly lowered the bar about what qualifies as success or victory. No longer really regime change, although Trump says that has happened. No longer getting rid of the nuclear threat. Marco Rubio published like half a dozen ideas about what would qualify as victory. I think number five was Iranians need to buy much more American hummus than they are now. That was a joke, by the way. So they'd actually so lowered the bar that they can declare victory and people will go, okay. But when you mentioned the Strait of Hormuz, they didn't even seem to calculate with this invasion that the Strait of Hormuz would be closed. That didn't seem to be part of their of their strategic planning. So he, he caused its closing and now he's going to leave, you know, with it only half open. That's, you know, half a victory.

[Ari Melber]

Barbara, your, your view on this and help us understand is the US Worse off if we leave this region or this war and abandon the strait?

[Barbara Starr]

Well, the Strait of Hormuz, the president is suddenly making the claim that's all about other countries. They use it more than the US Does. It's their responsibility. Of course, the strait was open before this Trump war started and now it is not. So he leaves it now, if he does with Iran for the first time in economic control of the strait, political possibly by seeking tolls from ships going by, even just by their decisions who to allow through who to not. Even though the US Is bombing constantly at Iranian military targets. This is an asymmetric situation. A mine, a sniper, a small boat, a small attack can cripple one tanker and basically keep the strait shut. It's an international situation. International oil markets react to this. That involves the US and that means US Gas prices are not going to come down anytime soon.

[Ari Melber]

Richard there has been more pushback. I want to play some conservative voices disagreeing with the policy, maybe trying to blame the aides who allegedly talked the president into it. Take a look. I counseled as loud as possible against doing this in the first place. Just please do this. Don't nation build.

[Barbara Starr]

As this thing goes south, we need to know exactly who talked him into it and what representations were made to convince the President that this was a good idea.

[Ari Melber]

Get the hell out of there. That's all we have tolerance for.

[Paul Krugman]

It's all, that's all that will work.

[Ari Melber]

Richard.

[Richard Stengel]

Well, and of course, Ari, I mean, Trump campaigned on ending the so called endless wars in the Middle east and now he has perhaps gotten us into one. I mean, I too would like to know who, who talked him into this. But in the end of the day, he's the commander in chief. He's responsible. He needs to take responsibility for the decision. He doesn't even want to take responsibility for the decision. You know, you remember, of course, the, you know, Colin Palace, Pottery Barn rule, you break it, you own it. The Trump rule is we broke it, you own it, you take care of it. That's what he's talking to with the allies now. And the other irony and Barbara alluded to this, the Strait of Hormuz is a choke point. But Europeans buy most of their oil now from the United States of America. They used to buy most of their oil from Russia and Then we persuaded them to boycott Russian oil and buy American oil. So they're okay?

[Ari Melber]

Yeah. Barbara, I also want to play another piece of Fox questioning this because the president didn't explain it. He didn't go to Congress. He's looking at an off ramp. And so even though we didn't have a real war powers debate like we're supposed to under law, it would seem that the the White House has a problem on the right, the left, the center, among the military, veterans, family, community, among civilians who don't serve. It's a pretty broad opposition. Here's what, what Laura asked.

[Barbara Starr]

Was the president fully briefed about the risks of all of this from the beginning? And was he then able to take

[Andrew Weissman]

it all in and understand the complexity of this, how complex it could actually get and further possibilities of casualties or other damage, the difficulty of dealing with these people, or was he told this would relatively quick in and out?

[Ari Melber]

A lot of questions, Barbara. This is about as dovish as Fox gets towards a MAGA war.

[Barbara Starr]

Well, I think she makes some very interesting points because what we all know is that the chairman of the Joint Chiefs briefs any president of the United States on military options. Before a president commits troops to action, a chairman would insist upon that. General Kaine would have briefed the president on the military options on the table. The interesting question that she asks is, was the president able to take it all in or did he potentially just listen to his own cheerleaders, which are more frankly in the Hegseth camp? I think there's been a really interesting development, Ari, tonight. There is a piece of video out there of Pope Leo talking to a group of journalists and clergy very much, much off the cuff about his concerns about the war. And Pope Leo himself uses that same phrase that he hopes Trump is looking for an off ramp. That's a fascinating piece of information in the very careful world of Vatican diplomacy for a pope to use that very, shall we say, universal common political term, if you will, which is its most reference in political circles these days, I think is fascinating. The pope is very much coming out in recent days very publicly calling for peace and urging President Trump now tonight to take that road and urging President Trump by name. So that puts another mark on the wall for the entire international community about just how serious this is all being taken.

[Ari Melber]

Hmm. Really striking. My thanks to Barbara and Richard. We have a lot coming up. Populist Democrat Sherrod Brown is here on the midterms how the January 6th crimes are staining a case headed to the Supreme Court by Trump tomorrow and some great guests, Andrew Weissman and Nobel economist Paul Krugman when We're back in 90 seconds.

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[Paul Krugman]

How long can the market live with

[Ari Melber]

oil at that level and gas at that level?

[Paul Krugman]

It's a gigantic headwind in Florida was at 412 this morning. I believe it was 290 before the war. Stocks getting hit, the transports, rails and truckers getting hit. Imagine lifting Uber drivers right now.

[Ari Melber]

That's how it looks out there. It's not getting better yet. Paul Krugman is the Nobel Prize winning economist. He writes a newsletter on Substack Paul Krugman, where he just wrote about the oil crisis getting physical. Of course we hope people read you. I've been reading you my whole adult life, professor. But let's start with a preview of what you've written there for our viewers tonight who might not have read it yet.

[Paul Krugman]

Okay, up till now you see oil prices fluctuating, but those are all prices of futures. They're claims on a barrel of oil next month. It's not the actual price of a barrel of oil. Literally. And so far it takes four to six weeks for oil from passing through the Strait of Hormuz to reach its major Markets. So we've been living. All this time, the world has been living on oil that was already in transit, has not been affected by the war, but that runs out now. Basically, the first physical shortages of oil in Asia will be starting in a day or two. The physical shortages in Europe will be starting to next week. So all of a sudden this is getting real. This is no longer financial speculation. This is an actual where is the oil? And if you try to think about what happens then, normally, shortages, there's already some rationing going on in Asia. But also the price that. The actual price, the actual price, we're already seeing a lot of rising prices at the pump and even more, by the way, diesel is a much bigger deal than gasoline, and people should be talking about that. But at a certain point, the price of oil has to rise enough so that people stop driving, stop doing stuff, enough so that the demand for oil is reduced to the available supply, which is down a lot. And so this gets really, really ugly if we don't. Even if we reopen the strait, like, you know, in a day or two, which is not going to happen, it's still going to be ugly for a while, but it's going to get really, really ugly if this goes on for an extended period. Period.

[Ari Melber]

You know, in college, the first day of a lot of courses, they try to convince everyone why it matters, why great books matters now, why sociology matters. You don't have to do that in econ, people have student loans. People might be trying to make a little more money than they grew up with. And with econ and gas, I want to show you just people outside dealing with this right now. Take a look.

[Paul Krugman]

We need help with it, you know what I mean? Because we're citizens and we have to

[Ari Melber]

pay these prices and it's not easy.

[Paul Krugman]

It's not easy at all.

[Commercial Announcer]

I feel like anytime something dealing with war is going on, we as the people are getting affected by it. And I don't feel like that's fair. We already have to deal with grocery store prices then. Now we gotta deal with the gas prices going up. It's a lot.

[Ari Melber]

I mean, if you're in the rat race all day and you're in your car from 8 o' clock in the morning till 5 in the afternoon. It's a rough life. Everything he stood for is nothing that he's doing anymore. Is this a direct consequence of Trump policy and was it, in your view, mostly or entirely avoidable?

[Paul Krugman]

Well, this is all Trump policy. I mean, as one of your. I think as you may have said this war didn't have to happen. And it's all of what's happening to the price of gasoline, to the price of diesel. Everything else is because of the war. The straightforward moves was open. Stuff was flowing through it fine on February 27th. Right. Everything was okay. We had problems with, as we long have with Iran, with other countries, but we did not have a global oil shortage. So this is all one man's decisions that have brought us to this pass. And he still seems to be completely clueless about what's going on. I mean, in that truth social post in which he said, why don't the British clear the straits? The world's greatest military can't but a second rank power, let's be clear, can. But also he said, and if you're not willing to be courageous and get the jet fuel, why don't you buy it from us? We have plenty. Well, do you know what's happened to the price of jet fuel? It makes what's happened to the price of gasoline look like nothing. Basically, jet fuel prices have doubled. The CEO of United Airlines has said we're canceling flights because we can't afford to fly the planes. So this is all. I mean, I've been tomorrow in the substack, I'll be saying that in a way, $4 a gallon gas is. That's less than half the problem. The effects on diesel fuel, which everything runs on there, every truck runs on diesel, all of the business activity runs on diesel. And gas is up a dollar a gallon. Diesel is up $1.70 a gallon. Jet fuel has doubled. The price of fertilizer for America's farms has surged because a lot of fertilizer, it turns out, was flowing through the Strait of Hormuz. So this is all a really. This is the greatest shock to global energy supplies ever. It's worse than the 1970s. And it's all because of one man's decision that he wanted a war which he doesn't want anymore.

[Andrew Weissman]

Wow.

[Ari Melber]

Right. Which he's backing off of. We hear a lot about how the stock market's not the entire real economy, but when you see the crash in the fourth quarter or correction or slide, you'll give us more precise wording and a lot of traders saying part of it is this, both the real world contagion of this and the uncertainty part that markets don't like. Give us your view of that. And then what do you say to viewers who are only maybe in the markets in their retirement, if at all, and say, well, that's not my life. Trump seems to be worried about it for the midterms. Give us your explanation on all that.

[Paul Krugman]

Well, this is nasty. We're seeing, although stocks were way up today because basically they were way up because it sounds as if Trump may be preparing to surrender, which tells you something about how the war is going. The markets are cheering the fact that the United States team seems to be running away, but it's not clear that we can succeed in running away. I've never been a track the markets minute by minute guy, but these days I keep a window open all day, not for stocks, but for the price of crude oil. I'm looking at the price of Brent crude, which is again, it's a futures price, it's a financial price, not the actual, not physical stuff on hand. And that price came way down today because again, everybody's cheering that Trump appears to be surrendering, but maybe not. There's a lot of US boots headed for the region. No one is sure what will happen tomorrow. I would say that the current price of crude oil and I think in stock prices also are priced as if this is not going to last very long. It's not going to be really as bad as it should be. And when I run the numbers on what a sustained closure of the Strait of Hormuz means, it's way worse than where we are right now. There's enormous uncertainty there, but 200 a barrel oil is not unreasonable. It's not my most likely thing, but it's definitely, it does not take very much in the way of things going a bit wrong for us to get to that. And that is really quite catastrophic for the market. For everything else,

[Ari Melber]

really striking. Paul Krugman, thank you, sir.

[Paul Krugman]

Thank you.

[Ari Melber]

Coming up, we will hear from a populist Democrat who has won in the middle of the country, former Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown and a Fox host warning Trump is giving up.

[Sherrod Brown]

I called Pete, I called General Kaine, I called a lot of our great

[Ari Melber]

people, we have great people.

[Sherrod Brown]

And I said, let's talk.

[Ari Melber]

We got a problem in the Middle

[Sherrod Brown]

east, or we can take a stop

[Ari Melber]

and make a little journey into the Middle East. That's Trump talking about some of this. That's the January 6th issues that are catching up with a case heading to the Supreme Court tomorrow. We have the ultimate guest for our legal preview. So you know exactly what the court's going to be doing. Andrew Weissman next. When covering the war in Iran. Gas prices coming up. We will get to the midterms, but we're also turning right now to a legal briefing that we think you should really know about. Tomorrow, the Supreme Court hears Donald Trump's completely fringe effort to tell you that what the Constitution says, it doesn't really say, and there is some sort of crime and race baiting. Sprinkled in the brains behind this push is a discredited lawyer, John Eastman. You might recall him from January 6, Politico reporting. He's been pushing this theory for many years, arguing that while the current law and the Constitution are clear, he says maybe children of foreigners living permanently in the US shouldn't be granted birthright citizenship. That runs directly contrary to the 14th amendment of the Constitution, which says all persons born or naturalized in the US Are citizens of the US Let me read that to you again, because there are parts of the Constitution that get a little wonky. But look on your screen. You don't need law school for this one. All persons born here are citizens here. That's what it says. Bill Barr, a very conservative Trump loyalist who ran the doj, cited Eastman's fringe theory that ignores this sentence and pretends the Constitution says something else as one of the reasons that he didn't believe him or find him credible when they were kind of serving together. Barr, of course, outranked him. And he was onto something because by the end of that same first Trump term, Eastman was trying to get Mike Pence to commit crimes and overthrow the election. Remember this. Did the Trump legal team ask you

[Andrew Weissman]

to prepare a memorandum regarding the vice president's role and the counting of electoral votes in 25th? Did you advise the President of the

[Ari Melber]

United States that the vice president could reject electors from seven states if is that statement in this memo true? 5th Did President Trump authorize you to

[Andrew Weissman]

discuss publicly your January 4, 2021 conversation with them? 5th she will not discuss those same

[Ari Melber]

conversations with this committee. Fifth that failed. Eastman and others involved were disbarred. That is the ultimate ignominy for a lawyer. And yet he is the one pushing these fringe arguments heading towards the Supreme Court. Tomorrow. I'm joined by Andrew Weissman, former FBI general counsel, Mueller prosecutor, and former federal prosecutor. Welcome, Andrew. There's the link. Here is a way to think about it, because Eastman's embrace of this argument tomorrow was so fringe that, as I mentioned, I want to read a little more of what Bill Barr said that Trump cited Eastman to Barr, quote, someone who had this great idea about how you could eliminate birthright citizenship. I told him that was wrong. Trump kept invoking Eastman. I asked Eastman to come over to my office and explain it to me. And he did a very good job of it. This was at a time where people were testifying about that crime spree. We all lived through it. Does it matter? And is it revealing that it's this kind of figure pushing this tomorrow?

[Andrew Weissman]

You know, it's one of those things where it could matter if there was any merit to this. But I love the way that you phrase this, because I hate to go out on a limb and predict what's going to happen. But let's just say widely, widely within the legal community, the question is, how close to 90 will this decision be against the administration? And it's a real sign of where we are that something that, as you correctly said, was so fringe is now in front of the Supreme Court. Every single judge, every single one that has had this issue, including judges appointed by Republican and Democratic presidents, have rejected it. The first judge, I believe, to hear this asked the DOJ lawyers, where were you when someone came up with this idea, like, where were the lawyers in the room to say, you've got to be kidding me. This really is the kind of thing that, you know, the first year of law school, you would be able to look at this and go, that's not going to win. And so it is correct to really think about why we are here. And more than that, why would somebody want to push this idea? In other words, who are you appealing to? Let's finish taking this position.

[Ari Melber]

So when you're going to go to part two, I'll let you speak to that, but we'll put this back up on the screen, which is part one, when it says all persons born here are citizens. For a country like the United States, which was founded by immigrants and has this policy, there's no mainstream or counter precedent that all persons born here are citizens. Doesn't mean what it says. I mean, some language changes over time, but this is pretty clear cut. Andrew, and then go on to your point too, please.

[Andrew Weissman]

Sure. Well, I want to make sure people understand what the administration's saying. One of the things that they are saying is that even if your parents are legally here, let's say they are here and they have green cards and they're in graduate school, just to put it in an academic setting, so I feel comfortable. And while they're here in school studying math or law and they have a child, they're saying, no, no, no, that doesn't work because it's temporary. And so it means that even though the child is born here, that the Constitution somehow You should read into it language that does not exist. And so it's not just saying that if someone came to the country illegally and had a child here, that they shouldn't have citizenship, although the language of the Constitution is they do. If you're born here, you're born here, period. It doesn't matter how your parents got here. And so this is one where I actually am viewing this very much as a litmus test for the Supreme Court justices to see. Are there any justices who are going to be so. Are so enamored of the Trump administration that they're willing to actually say that this position is lawful because it is one that has never, ever been accepted by any court ever in the history of this amendment.

[Ari Melber]

We don't do a lot of predictions, but when I look to past cases, Thomas and Alito have been quicker to embrace losing fringe arguments, even to their own legal disrepute, for whatever their reasons are. I don't know, as you say, whether this is enticing to them, but more broadly, the Trump administration seems intent on pushing these things to send their messages, even when they know it's losing. I'll also mention that the ACLU has said, I'm just looking at this note, that they view this as an effort to change the demographics of the US to really get more, if they were to win it, to get more control racially, is the allegation, at least from the aclu.

[Andrew Weissman]

Yeah. And even if they were to not prevail, because I don't think they will, I agree with the ACLU that that is a perfectly legitimate theory as to why this is happening. But even if they don't prevail, it is still signaling that kind of xenophobia and racism to appeal to some segment of their base to whom those are values that they adhere to. And so I think that is a totally fair thing to look at is why would you be pushing something because there's an issue about whether something is lawful or not. But secondarily, there's, why would you, even as a policy matter, want to be doing this? It's so against what our nation stands for. And it's so different than saying, oh, if you're here and you're not a citizen and you commit a terrible crime, you should be removed from the country. That is one totally valid argument that I think everyone agrees with. It's really different to say that we're going to want to remove people who are here lawfully and have a child who, under the exact literal term of the 14th amendment, are citizens, that those people should not be here. And you really do have to hearken back to the president's remarks about what kind of country you come from, that if you essentially, if you're a sort of white Protestant, we want you. And if you're not a white Protestant, particularly if you're from a black or brown community. He has used extremely vulgar language to refer to those countries and people in a way that is so contrary to what we're supposed to stand for.

[Ari Melber]

Right. And it echoes and proves the critique from these massive no Kings protests over the weekend that this is a king like effort to override the Constitution. No other DOJ in modern history has done something like this on a corpse part of the Constitution. If you had a politician who said they don't like the First Amendment, very few have gotten the DOJ to go argue that it doesn't say what it says or they should jail people who disagree with them. We're really in a different turf here. And the fact that he's found people at DOJ or made DOJ so partisan in that realm for what you say could be a very lopsided loss is a problem and of itself. I want you to stick around. Andrew's here for another block. We'll be right back. Together.

[Barbara Starr]

January 6, protesters are suing law enforcement

[Commercial Announcer]

agencies for more than $18 million. This is about using the legal system to construct a new narrative for what

[Ari Melber]

happened on January 6th. I'm back with Andrew Weissman, prosecutor. You've worked with federal law enforcement. That's the FBI. People think of police. That's often local in D.C. they're federal. These people were convicted of these heinous attacks. We know Trump pardoned them. And now we have one step further, which is some of them trying to sue. Your reaction to this and is it important that people keep a hold of the legal facts and baseline that everything's upside down and Orwellian now?

[Andrew Weissman]

Yeah, well, upside down is perfect. Perfect description. So it's worth remembering the kinds of lawsuits that we're seeing that are, I think a term for it is collusive. It seems to be a favorite word of President Trump. You have Michael Flynn, who just received $1.25 million of taxpayer money on the ground that he was improperly charged when he initially pled guilty and was fired by Donald Trump from his job, reportedly because he had lied to the vice President of the United States, Mike Pence, or the incoming Vice President of the United States. Two, we have a similar lawsuit being brought by Donald Trump himself seeking Tens of millions of dollars for his claim that he was improperly targeted in a court authorized search in Mar a Lago, where the facts seemed very clear and he did everything he could to never have those facts come to light in a court of law. And now you have people who you can see on videotape were part of a violent protest. Now it doesn't matter if some of the people or even all of the people who are part of that lawsuit did not themselves participate in the violence that day. The thing that they're challenging is the way that the police acted to try and sort of stem the violence that was happening that day. The thing that's so outrageous here is that type of lawsuit, this sort of, oh, the police acted with excessive force are routinely rejected by the courts. And the Department of Justice is on the side of the police saying, you need to reject these. It's very, very, very hard to prevail on this kind of case. And yet, and by the way, that's true for the Michael Flynn case as well. But when you have a Department of justice that essentially is looking for a fig leaf to dole out tens of millions of dollars, that's our money. This is what can happen. And what I have said. Yeah. And if there's no good faith basis for this settlement, my question is, what is the difference between a quote unquote settlement and Pam Bondi actually just stealing the money from the public and giving it to somebody?

[Ari Melber]

I gotta fit in a break. But you're nailing it because Trump earlier wanted $200 million and they keep finding ways to move the goals and try to create precedent. Then on his way out, you might see him actually do this and then dare the next administration to claw it back. I mean, that's the corruption question we're facing. Andrew, on more than one topic. Thank you. Mentioned. I'm gonna fit in a break. When we come back, the GOP midterm panic. That's next.

[Paul Krugman]

There are protest signs and they were just great.

[Ari Melber]

They came from Minnesota and we said,

[Paul Krugman]

oh, no you don't.

[Andrew Weissman]

Does this ass make my country look small?

[Ari Melber]

No folking way. The turd.

[Paul Krugman]

Right.

[Ari Melber]

And Jimmy Kimmel has higher ratings than you. Just some of the mix of massive social and civic engagement with having a sense of humor even in these times. Colbert tipping his hat, of course, to some of the signs. These no Kings protests are a massive and historic development. Organizers estimate about 8 million people were marching. This is unified, it's broad. It is not strictly democratic or strictly partisan. It is about defending American rule. Of law and democracy. And while this type of enthusiasm is important for voter turnout in a non presidential year in November, the polling also shows a more broadly complete rejection of Trump that might even terrify him. As one headline puts it, 71% disapprove on these high prices. Super majority on Iran and tariffs, 61% on jobs. Overall disapproval has hit 62. Trump is the least popular president in the history of polling of the second term. Congressional Republicans are retiring, many seeing that as a quick exit rather than looking weak and being swept away in a blue wave they're preparing for. Some in conservative media say Trump doesn't even care. He's kind of written it off.

[Andrew Weissman]

I don't know what political price he could possibly pay.

[Ari Melber]

He's not running for president again.

[Andrew Weissman]

If it's the midterms, I don't know if he cares that much. He unders. He's going to do what he can, but he already. He understands history and knows that it's probably likely that the Republicans won't be able to hold it even if they try.

[Ari Melber]

If that's what the cheerleading sounds like, what does the objective assessment sound like? We're joined by a candidate in these midterms, Ohio. Ohio's own Sherrod Brown, of course, was senator there. He's running in the special Senate election that is still filling the old J.D. vance seat because that's, of course, from the last cycle. Welcome back. We could talk about your race and what your Midwestern voters are concerned about. But first, these rallies were huge, historic. We did account once that against the larger estimates for the Tea Party rallies. These aren't double or triple. They're over 20 times. And those got a lot of elite media attention. This is happening out in the real world. Your. Your view on this weekend. We lost. Shared.

[Commercial Announcer]

I.

[Ari Melber]

Senator, I think we have you muted because I don't hear you and I don't think our control room does. Bear with me.

[Sherrod Brown]

Does that work?

[Ari Melber]

It does. Start from the top, please.

[Sherrod Brown]

Okay. Yeah. I mean, there were more than 100 of these rallies around Ohio. Big cities, small town, rural areas, suburbs. And people recognize the system's rigged against them, and they recognize the system's more rigged than it's ever been. People that are struggling have been told by John Husted that those people don't know how to navigate the real world. He's saying that the war is going better than we expected. People. People rebel against that. They know this system doesn't work for them. And I see it everywhere I go. I see it talking to veterans In a little town called Jackson in Appalachia. I see it talking to farmers. I see it in Cleveland yesterday. Crowds are bigger than I've ever seen. Thousands of people are going online to contribute. People just know that people desperately want to see change in this country and they know they want to be part of that change. And they're just out in huge numbers at every kind of event. As you point out, Ari.

[Ari Melber]

Yeah, Trump and the Republicans have at times done better when things are really partisan, really divided, and yet when the conversation is about stuff that I've gotten to know you professionally over the years that you've been leading on your whole life, which is food on the table and who's looking out for you and do you have any bargaining power? I mean, it's one thing to be good at your job and another thing to work in a system that has some level of bargaining power for that rather than these giant multinational companies screwing people over even when they are working hard. And so I'm curious whether this looks more like a populist type year. And as one example, I want to show you, while people are out there doing this weekend, the president's really out of touch, talking about his fancy ballroom in a year when he's reaped hundreds of millions in self dealing. Take a look. I think it'll be the finest ballroom

[Sherrod Brown]

of its kind anywhere in the world. This is a view of the columns as they are going to be made.

[Ari Melber]

They're going to be hand carved and they're beautiful. Top of the line.

[Sherrod Brown]

They'll be Corinthian, which is considered the best, most beautiful by far.

[Andrew Weissman]

Sherrod.

[Sherrod Brown]

Yeah, they see that. People see that. It's what they don't see. It's. They don't see John Husted and others fighting for lower prices. They don't see John Husted standing up for farmers when the price for fertilizer goes up, when diesel fuel, which is what they use, goes up even faster than oil, than oil prices. They just don't see help with tariffs, with what's happened to soybean markets. They don't see what's happened with price. I mean, John Husted said that struggling people don't know how to navigate the real world, whatever that means. And he said that the work ethic in this country is broken. That's why to build the kind of grassroots effort we need to beat the hundreds of millions of dollars they spent more against me two years ago than any race in Senate history. I asked people to come to sherrodbrown.com and chip in 10 or $15 because we raise our money that way. They raise it with dark money coming from Wall street and the oil companies and the drug companies. And that's really the fundamental difference. He was a special interest guy in Columbus. He was appointed to the Senate by the governor. Now he's a special interest guy in Washington. And we know what special interest guys do. They play the inside game. They help the president in his war, but don't do anything to stand up for people for lower prices.

[Ari Melber]

All really interesting, which is why we thought of you coming out of this populous weekend. Sherrod Brown will be checking back with you on the way to November. Thanks for your time tonight. I want to tell viewers that the Republican just. Yes, thank you Republican. Just mentioned Senator Huston is of course the incumbent that Brown is running against. He's welcome to join us on the beat as well. We'll be right back.

[Commercial Announcer]

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[Ari Melber]

Sometimes you got to look beyond politics and beyond our planet. There will be the first flight to the moon for humanity since 1972. Tomorrow, the Artemis mission set to launch from Cape Canaveral, Florida, a rocket carrying a crew to the moon and back. But it will not land. The crew is three Americans, one Canadian. The purpose of the mission? Testing life support systems for future missions to that uninhabitable lunar surface. We're going to be covering it on Ms. Now. And it's also a reminder sometimes we got to look out there at what else is going on that does it for us.

[Andrew Weissman]

Lifelock, how can I help?

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[Ari Melber]

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[Sherrod Brown]

My refund though.

[Andrew Weissman]

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[Andrew Weissman]

I'll be with you every step of the way.

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