Oil Prices Surge as Iran War Expands

Summary

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Podcast Summary: "Oil Prices Surge as Iran War Expands"

The Beat with Ari Melber (MS NOW) – March 9, 2026

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Episode Overview

This episode of "The Beat with Ari Melber" focuses on the political, economic, and social ramifications of the ongoing war between the United States and Iran, now in its tenth day. The show features extended analysis of President Donald Trump’s press conference—the most in-depth remarks he’s given since initiating military action—offering insight from journalist Rick Stengel, CNBC economics expert Steve Liesman, and Democratic strategist James Carville. The discussion centers on the war's justifications, steep oil price increases, recession fears, and the political backlash at home.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. President Trump's Justifications for the Iran War

• Main Claims: Trump asserts the war was necessary to prevent Iran from gaining nuclear capabilities and to maintain stability in the Middle East and protect the flow of oil (02:04–03:16, 07:11–07:41).
• Terminology Shift: Trump avoids calling the military action a "war," instead labeling it an "excursion" with shifting rationales.
• Stengel’s Analysis:
  • Trump is "spooked by oil prices going over $120 today, the stock market going down. He felt he had to come and try to explain what was going on, but he still can't explain exactly why he's doing what he did." (Rick Stengel, 02:04)
  • The war's true purpose and goals remain unclear, risking indefinite continuation.

2. Economic Fallout: Oil & Gas Prices, Recession Risks

• Oil Price Spikes: Crude skyrocketed from $85 to $116/bbl, before drifting back down after Trump’s statements (03:48–06:22).
• Critical Chokepoint: The closure of the Strait of Hormuz (20% of world oil transit) could prolong high prices and have global ripple effects.
• Liesman's Perspective:
  • "Commodity prices are priced in a way of the value of the last barrel... If this remains closed for a while, it will be a difficult situation for the US economy... Wall Street [is] raising their odds of a recession." (Steve Liesman, 05:23)
  • Trump's market-calming remarks appear timed to reduce economic panic rather than provide substantive clarity.

3. Questioning War Premises & Precedents

• Factual Accuracy:
  • Stengel: "What he said was false. The idea that Iran was an imminent threat to the United States is absurd." (Rick Stengel, 08:10)
  • Claims of imminent nuclear threat are dismissed; Iran was "years away" from a weapon, with capabilities dismantled months earlier per Trump’s own prior statements.
• Foreign Policy Consequences:
  • Preemptive doctrine sets "a terrible precedent," opening doors for "Russia in Ukraine" or "China in Taiwan" to justify aggression (09:49).
  • Liesman adds the U.S. has "no track record of going into a country and creating a stable democracy" (11:05).

4. Political Ramifications, Public Backlash, & Messaging

• Carville’s Analysis:
  • New isolationist dominance in GOP (i.e., Vance and Carlson vs. Rubio), with "the isolationists [having] won this fight and its ramifications are going to go out beyond just this afternoon." (James Carville, 14:49)
  • Putin's influence on Trump is noted: "We know that Putin talked to Trump on the phone for one hour today. We noted after the conversation Trump threw in the white flag." (14:49)
  • Domestic urgency: Surging gas prices create real pain ("People are going to pay 50 cents a gallon more [and] that's not an illusion. That's real money." (17:13))
• Digital Age Protest:
  • Young influencers and TikTok users are energetically opposing the war, disseminating opposition and fact checks rapidly: "They're pretty intelligent…pretty aware of what's happening to them..." (James Carville, 19:08)
• Congress Sidelined:
  • The administration acted without congressional approval, intensifying controversy (19:51).

5. DHS Turmoil & Further Political Fallout

• Democratic Critique:
  • Hakeem Jeffries argues for "dramatic, bold, meaningful and transformational changes to get ICE under control" (20:48), following the ousting of Kristi Noem from DHS.
  • Carville: The memory of the administration's violent crackdown on U.S. soil will outlast any cabinet changes (21:31).

6. Trump’s Troubled Economic Record

• Jobs Slump:

  • Carville dubs it a "no jobs number" era (24:42), noting downward revisions and a stark contrast to the booming economy at Trump's inauguration.
  • Hiring in areas like ICE has not improved broader economic indicators.

• Political Message for Democrats:

  • "Basta. That's an Italian word that means enough... This is really going to be a message about [the] election, about sending him a message." (27:24)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Rick Stengel:

  • "When you don’t know where you’re going, any road will take you there. So [Trump] can declare victory at any time. And I think that was the message..." (02:04)

• Steve Liesman:

  • "Consider people in the desert and nine bottles of water. What is that bottle of water worth?...if this remains closed for a while, it will be a difficult situation for the US Economy..." (05:23)

• James Carville:

  • “The fact checkers are going to have to dig through to see if it’s 55 or 58 different lies that he’s—I had to stop counting and I'm not even a fact checker. They were cascading, they were going so fast.” (14:49)
  • “Once you become unpopular, everything you do [becomes unpopular]. But what's really impressive is watching the clips of these young... influencers... They're pretty intelligent, pretty aware of what's happening to them.” (19:08)
  • “I like to say you can't unscramble an egg... That’s a scrambled egg they’re trying to deal with.” (26:11)
  • "Basta. ...literally, just enough." (27:24)

• President Trump (soundbite):

  • "If we didn't knock out Midnight Hammer, if we didn't knock out their Iranian potential... at a minimum, Israel would have been annihilated, threatened our overseas bases, and soon could have reached even our homeland." (07:11)

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• 01:01–03:16: First reactions to Trump’s press conference; expert panel introductions.
• 03:48–06:22: Economic implications, oil price volatility, and recession risks with Steve Liesman.
• 07:11–09:49: Fact-checking Trump's preemptive-war rationale; precedent warned.
• 11:05: Steve Liesman on U.S. track record of nation-building failures.
• 14:22–16:42: Carville on political winners/losers and the significance of Putin’s involvement.
• 17:13: Carville on how war transforms international crisis into a domestic political event via high fuel costs.
• 18:30–19:46: Social media-driven protest and shifting public discourse.
• 20:48–21:31: Rep. Hakeem Jeffries and Carville on DHS turmoil and accountability.
• 24:42–27:24: Carville breaks down Trump’s job numbers, hiring priorities, and Democrats’ coming midterm message.

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Conclusion

This episode delivered a fast-moving and incisive look at a complex series of crises—a precipitous U.S. war in Iran, skyrocketing energy prices, shaky economic prospects, and roiling domestic politics. Expert voices challenged the Trump administration's shifting justifications, warned of the long-term global dangers of precedent and power, and detailed the economic burdens now hitting American households. The political takeaway, strongly voiced by Carville, is that voters are losing patience, and the midterm election will be a referendum on the administration’s handling of both foreign and domestic crises: "Basta—enough."

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Transcript

[A]

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[B]

been listening to President Donald Trump speaking in Doral, Florida. His most extensive remarks on the now 10 day war in Iran to date. The president made several claims, some familiar, reiterating why he says the United States went to war, outlining what might be called a preemptive doctrine. The president saying at one point, as he has said before, quote, they would attack us. They had attacked their neighbors. And that's why he wanted to enter the conflict first. In his view, he made other claims that were unsubstantiated, pressed by reporters, for example, on his allegation of Iranian friendly fire and many other assertions. We have special guests standing by. We've been watching this with you. So I want to bring them in. Former diplomat and longtime journalist Rick Stangle. And on the economic side, where we have seen the gas and oil prices really change the dynamic. To start the week, our CNBC colleague, an economics expert, Steve Liesman. Welcome to both of you. Rick, what stood out to you in this, the president's really longest remarks about Iran since he started this war.

[C]

Thanks, Harry. What stood out to me is I think he got spooked by the oil prices going over 120 today, the stock market going down. He felt he had to come and try to explain what was going on, but he still can't explain exactly why he's doing what he did. He didn't call it a war, he called it an excursion. This time he basically used every possible rationale to explain it. Eliminate their nuclear threat, eliminate the ballistic missiles, help Israel, help the flow of Oil. The question is, what is the actual purpose? What is the actual outcome he desires? And when you don't know where you're going, any road will take you there. So he can declare victory at any time. And I think that was the message that he was saying today, to try to calm the markets, to say, you know what? This ends when I say it ends. I can declare victory and we can go home and everybody can go back to normal. But again, as I've said before, Ari, this is an incredibly dangerous thing. Just because he says it's very complete, whatever that means, doesn't mean that it is. And there's lots of consequences for the rest of the world still to be seen.

[B]

Steve, there's a lot of questions we have for you tonight, including our viewers and fellow citizens concerned about gas prices and planning their already tight budgets. But first, I want to get you on the most newsworthy part of this, which is, what did you hear? In the President's view, or we could call it a theory to be charitable, on the economics of this war and the days ahead, he made some kind of broad statements about why things economically will ultimately be okay.

[D]

Well, if I could take a step back, Ari, I think the question here is one that was just raised, which is, is this something the President can turn off? I generally agree with the idea that the President looked at the situation in the markets, look at the situation with oil prices, and decided take a step back. Certainly his rhetoric about this ending very soon is different from his rhetoric in his tweets on Saturday where he talked about a continued extensive bombing campaign against Iran. What the key to the situation is, is one journalist tried to get at it. There wasn't a follow up, unfortunately, which is the opening of the straits of Hormuz. 20% of the world's oil goes through there. And the extent to which there is a continued economic impact from what's happening, it will be key as to the ability of the US Government or allies to keep open the Straits of Hormuz. They are closed now, as far as we understand. And what's unclear is if the president stops now, does that, can the U.S. open, can the U.S. keep them open and resume the flow of oil? That will be the key right now. A massive increase in the price of oil, an increase in the price of gasoline. That could be temporary if the straits reopen, but it could be long lasting if they remain closed and dangerous for quite a while.

[B]

And Steve, did he sound to you like someone who had been meaning to get around to an energy and economic Update and now is doing so or did he sound reactive or day trading off the terrible start to the week for the markets and by extension, aspects of the Trump plan?

[D]

Well, you have to look at the idea that the notion that this would be over very soon or that quote that came out which by the way, turned around the market was done before the markets closed. So it does strike me that the president is being quite deliberate in this kind of rhetoric in order to have an impact on the stock market and on the oil price. We've settled down the last I looked about $85 a barrel. It had been as high as 116. And the way to think about it, Ari, is consider people in the desert and nine bottles of water. What is that bottle of water worth? And it ends up being sort of infinite in the sense that the commodity prices are priced in a way of the value of the last barrel. And if this remains closed for a while, it will be a difficult situation for the US Economy for quite a while and one that could cause. Well, certainly what I'm seeing is economists on Wall street raising their odds of a recession if they see continued high oil prices the way they are.

[B]

Yeah, really helpful getting your breakdown on that. I want to show Rick a little more of where Donald Trump talked about what he views as the risk to reward. And again, it's not so much a criticism as an observation that unlike every other major Middle east action that we've had in the last 30 plus years, this one came without a presentation to the country. So whether you call that back foot or leading from behind or delayed, the country, the nation, including the people who go and fight these wars on our behalf, are learning after the fact why we did what we did and why we're gonna do, I guess, what we might do for however much longer. I say that by introduction to here, the president discussing what he called the Iranian potential, the threat. Take a listen.

[E]

If we didn't knock out Midnight Hammer, if we didn't knock out their Iranian potential, if we didn't do that with Midnight Hammer, they would have had a nuclear weapon. They would have used it long before now. And at a minimum, Israel would have been annihilated, threatened our overseas bases, and soon could have reached even our homeland. Iran's a very powerful country. They were going to take over the Middle East. If we did not hit them, they were going to take over the Middle East.

[B]

Rick, two basic questions. One, is the factual part of that claim true, as best we know, I mean, US intel, et cetera. And then second, Is that working? If this is another preemptive war doctrine? Because this president's decided to pick and choose what the preemptive war will be, where the threat is, do it without Congress, which we've learned and seen is already very controversial, widely opposed. Can you assess both of those for us?

[C]

Yes, Ari. What he said was false. The idea that Iran was an imminent threat to the United States is absurd. They don't have missiles that could reach the United States. They were not two weeks away from a nuclear weapon. People estimate they were years away, five years, even 10 years away. Remember, Trump said eight months ago he had obliterated the nuclear threat in Iran. The idea that they could reconstitute a threat in a number in a few months after spending decades trying to build a nuclear weapon is crazy. And so that is just a false premise. It's a false premise for going to war. They were not an imminent threat. In fact, my argument is that we invaded them precisely because it was not an imminent threat. Because they were weak, their economy was damaged, their nuclear threat was diminished. That's why we hit them. So, so much of what he said is absolutely fals, false. And Americans should realize that he took us to war on a false premise. And now I don't even remember what your second long question was, Ari.

[B]

Well, that's on me. But the second question was whether you can assess his foreign policy claim that he will choose the preemptive war and it will work. That again, it's early days, but that his actions, including militarily eliminating part of the Iranian leadership now replaced by another hardliner, and the other actions to constrain this country will work to the US and perhaps allies benefit in the region.

[C]

Well, the truth is it may be effective for eliminating whatever Iran's threat was in the Middle East. I don't know about you, but I don't want to live in a world where superpowers can preemptively invade another power because they think that that power is threatening them in some way. This gives a permission structure for Russia in Ukraine. This gives a permission structure for China in Taiwan. It's a much darker world, a world of this kind of hyper power world where people can control their interests, where they live. So I don't think that's a good thing and I think it sets a terrible precedent.

[B]

Yeah, I think you're reminding everyone how this works. Great power politics, if you're the biggest guy on the block, so to speak. In the short term, they could be very appealing. In the long term, the 20th century is littered with the great cost of that and world wars started by powers that thought, well, we'll control this country and this region and this land. And it didn't work out well if you lived in those countries, let alone to say nothing everywhere else. I'm simplifying, Steve, because we don't have time to do 20th century history for the whole hour. So I hope people can handle the summary I want to show. Go ahead.

[D]

I'll do it real fast, Ari, which is we have no track record of going into a country and creating a stable democracy. I spent six years in Russia, watched that failed program. We watched Iraq, we watched Afghanistan. And the results are less than overwhelming. The president talked about having this formula from Venezuela. I'm not quite sure what that is, but this is not. And fundamentally, Ari, I know this is not your question, but fundamentally different from the Liberation Day tariff, something the president has the power to turn on and turn off. Turning off war and turning off and the results of this, the way you smash something and the pieces fly everywhere. There is no telling how this works out. And we have very little, not a very good track record in forming countries in the wake of these types of military actions.

[B]

Yeah. So sober points from both of you that are worth considering whether people are listening in Washington, on Wall street, with the markets and around the nation because ultimately there has to be a informed foreign policy on behalf of the American public. Even if has cut out Congress for now. We were watching the press conference on a breaking news night. My thanks to Steven. Rick. Appreciate you guys. We're going to fit in a break. James Carville is here on the other side looking at the politics of protest, economics, rising prices against this unpopular president. The Ragin Cajun will have a lot to say, I bet. Next, guys, it's no use putting it off.

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[E]

Well, we're looking at the oil prices down. We went artificially up because of this excursion into a very positive thing. I mean this was an excursion that a lot of people wouldn't have done. I knew oil prices would go up if I did this and they've gone up probably less than I thought they'd go up. But I don't think anybody thought we were going to be this quickly successful.

[B]

President Trump speaking moments ago tonight in his first extended remarks on the Iran war, a press conference where as you just heard, he discussed the surging prices today that have rattled his administration. We are joined by James Carville, legendary political strategist, advisor to presidents, Democratic heavyweight, knows his way around the arc of history and how unpredictable it is. Your reaction to the press conference and the President's claims about oil prices?

[F]

First of all, we know, we know we took out an 86 year old leader who was a hardliner and was replaced by his son who is 56 year old and a hard liner. So that didn't work. We know that Putin talked to Trump on the phone for one hour today. We noted after the conversation Trump threw in the white flag. We know these things actually happen now the fact checkers are going to have to dig through to see if it's 55 or 58 different lies that he's I had to stop counting and I'm not even a fact checker. They were cascading, they were going so fast. And one other thing I say, all right, the political ramification immediate is JD Vance is a winner and Marco Rubio is a loser because J.D. vance and Tucker Carlson are more of the isolationist wing of the Republican Party. Rubio and them are more inhibitionists. The isolationists won this fight and its ramifications are going to go out beyond just this afternoon.

[B]

And that is Also because you read this as them looking for a way to wrap up.

[F]

I look at. Did we just get it out? Putin again. We know what happened. We know he talked to Putin for an hour on the phone, and we know he said this thing is wrapping up, that it is then. And we know we've replaced a bad guy with a bad guy. We know all of that. He can tell as many lies he wants. He can stand up there as long as he wants to. And we know that there were some strong isolationist tendencies in today's Republican Party. And my guess is that they were helped by this debacle we have. But we'll see.

[B]

The intersection of American foreign policy and politics is thin to the point of a combined blur. We could talk about Vietnam. We could talk about Iraq. We could talk about Obama coming out post Iraq. Everyone's lived through that. And I'm curious whether your political read is that Donald Trump maybe started to learn in the last couple days that which he didn't remember or care about from history because he seems more alert, James, to the high prices and the pushback.

[F]

Well, I guess what I'd say is this is. This was a domestic event. I mean, when somebody goes and pays 50 cents a gallon more than did before, that's not an illusion. All right. That's really not. That's like real money. And as your previous guest said, which was very intelligent point, the $120 stuff has already been bought. That you're going to see that at the gas pumping is going to. They're going to have to take this cheap off, assume that it stays cheap, which I have no idea. You have to ask an economist. I don't think they know any more than you and I know. So that's going to be there. And we know that this put a terrible strain on people's pocketbook when they couldn't afford it. And this was a domestic event. It wasn't just a foreign policy event. We had a merger here.

[B]

Yeah, I know that you keep an eye on everything. You didn't just stop doing political communication when the direct mail stopped or the physical newspapers. It's an interesting thing about you, and it may be the one thing you and the president have in common because you both jump on the podcast and TikTok. I say that by introduction to the fact that people are using whatever methods they have, including TikTok, to say what they think about this Iran war that Trump started out of nowhere. Take a look.

[A]

The White House said a draft is on the table. America can also not really win this

[F]

war because Americans don't want to fight this war. They're showing you the missile strikes and the destroyed warships. What they're not showing you is the 15 million people in Tehran that are breathing in poison.

[A]

The Republicans said Trump gets to do whatever he wants. A billion dollars a day, almost is being spent to reign death and destruction onto random civilians in the Middle east with my tax dollars.

[B]

Where does the speed of today's communication, including online, fit in with a war that has remained unpopular every day of its, of its first ten days?

[F]

Yeah, well, everything he does is unpopular because he's the most unpopular president in history at this person. Once you become unpopular, everything you do. But what's really impressive is watching the clips of these young, I don't know, what do you call them, influences or whatever you want to call them. They're pretty intelligent, that they're pretty aware of what's happening to them and they're pretty aware of what's happening in their future and they're pretty aware of what's happening to the country's future. So you can't stop this technology from being influential or being a part of it. It doesn't matter if you're 28 or 81. It's still the way you got to communicate in this day and age.

[B]

Does it matter that Congress was sidelined through this?

[F]

Well, it's going to matter that Congress, I mean, I'm reading stories even right here to the New Orleans airport. I'm three hour wait. And this is going to go out longer and longer and longer and longer. I do not know how it's going to end. But I heard Senator Mark Warnup talk about it last night and they wanted some reforms in ice. Who doesn't want reforms in ICE and some reforms in the Border Patrol. And they're going to have to do that if they want to push forward on this. And I think Democrats will push forward on it. But they're not just going to do it with the same old shooting people in the street. No, they're not going to accept that.

[B]

We have Hakeem Jeffries sound. I want to play just a clip, of course, Democratic leader talking about this because with everything else going on, you know, some Americans are aware that we have this DHS clash, others are just out busy living their lives. This is dragging on with the Democrats saying, as you just referenced, there's got to be some change. Take a look.

[D]

What we need is a change in policy, not simply a change in personnel. Now, Kristi Noem was a disgrace he was totally unqualified. She was a pathological liar. She called American citizens domestic terrorists without any justification whatsoever. But we need dramatic, bold, meaningful and transformational changes to get ICE under control.

[B]

Your view of that, and whatever the reasons, as the dust settles, is it, is it important that a big cabinet member was ousted, that the protests that started in Minnesota and picked up steam now have this change in personnel, even though there's much left to be done, in the view of the Democrats, well,

[F]

long after Christian army is forgotten, which is not gonna be very long now people are gonna remember that they invaded an American city, they shot American citizens, and that's gonna stick with people way long after her bedroom on the 737 for the Department of Homeland Security. So, Deborah. No, I think that Hakeem is doing a good job. I think he framed it up pretty good. And hey, hey, dude, I got news for you. Hang in there for some more months because come January, you're going to be one powerful dude. I promise you that.

[B]

You think he's going to be Speaker Jeffries?

[F]

Oh, I don't think there's any. I don't think there's any doubt. And I think it's going to be. Is not even going to be close. No, I don't see anything in. Particularly after this debacle today. This war was never popular and the surrender is going to be less popular.

[B]

James, I got some other questions with you. Including Donald Trump's troubled jobs numbers which predate the war. But also tee up the midterms you're talking about. James stays with us. We'll be right back. Lifelock, how can I help?

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[F]

Well, first of all, you call it a jobs number. I think I would call it a no jobs number. But okay, we can cripple over nomenclature here. In August of 2024, the economist said that the US economy was the envy of the world. Jamie Dimon said it was the strongest economy he had ever seen. It's turning into a catastrophe and they keep revising the jobs numbers down. And it's to tell you the truth, the American people have caught on. His economic numbers are just awful. But we are definitely going in the wrong direction in this excursion or whatever you want to call it. I'd call it catastrophe in Iran is not going to help at all. And people know that. And it's, I think it's going to just going to continue to get worse. I really do.

[B]

And this comes while the Trump administration, you know, they, they talk real loud even whether they're doing something or not. Sometimes they just hype, whatever. And you check back six months and like other things, it went away. There was a lot of talk about them cutting jobs under Musk in the first few months. Now even the Trump administration, we have a headline on this is doing some rehiring, you Almost feel like the headlines are more important to them than the reality. What does it tell you that here in year two, it's the one year anniversary of the height of the Doge cuts and they're ramping up hiring?

[F]

Well, they lost the governor's race in Virginia by 15 points. I think people told them exactly what they thought about this. It was massively unpopular. You know that there's an expression, some people say you can't unring a bell. I like to say you can't unscrabble an egg. Okay, that's wrong bell. That's a scramble egg they're trying to deal with. And you know, the only people they were hiring were these ICE agents and they were putting them out there with no training, no vetting, no anything. What a predictable result. So they're going to try to do something they can to unscramble this egg, but they're not going to be able to do it. I promise you. It's really, when you think about it, it's really remarkable, the momentum that the US economy has lost. Well, they had no momentum now. Now it's in reverse. But, you know, but people didn't like higher prices. I can understand that. They didn't like certain elements about the economy, but it was significantly better when he took office than it is today. And everybody knows that and everybody understands that. And more importantly, directionally, it's going the wrong way. The momentum's all against us.

[B]

30 seconds. The Democrats midterm message should be

[F]

basta. That's an Italian word that means enough and you don't need to go basta. It's not a bad word. Don't let the censors at MSNOW get mad at me. But I mean, literally, just enough. The whole thing is just. And I think the more you try to talk about it, the deeper you're gonna get in the weeds. Just, it's enough. And this is really going to be a message about election, about sending him a message. I don't, I don't have any doubt about that. And they got a little boy. They're going to send him a message. Boston.

[B]

There it is. James Carville, clear as always. Thank you, sir. We wish you a pleasant evening. I want to tell everyone thanks for spending time with us on the beat during this news and the press conference we covered. I'll see you back here at 6pm Eastern tomorrow.

[A]

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