Stunning Voter Data Rattling Trump

Summary

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The Beat with Ari Melber

Episode: Stunning Voter Data Rattling Trump

Date: November 6, 2025
Host: Ari Melber
Guests: Michael Steele, Juanita Toliver, Che Komondori

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Episode Overview

This episode delivers a comprehensive analysis of the recent string of decisive Democratic victories in key state and local elections. Ari Melber and his guests unpack the stunning voter data, what it signals for the Democratic and Republican parties, and its implications for Donald Trump’s presidency and the MAGA movement heading into the 2026 midterms. The episode features sharp political data breakdowns, lively debate about political narratives, and a legal update on Trump’s use of executive power, all woven with Melber’s signature blend of data-driven reporting and pop culture references.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Democratic Wave: Major Wins Across the Country

• Democrats secured double-digit, decisive victories in New Jersey and Virginia, flipped the Virginia governor’s mansion, introduced a new progressive mayor in New York City (Zoran Mamdani), and made inroads in deep-red Mississippi and Georgia—winning seats previously thought unattainable.
• These victories were not confined to blue states, signaling a broad anti-Trump backlash and Democratic momentum in traditionally red and swing territories.

Notable Quote:
"Democrats, Democratic candidates won decisively, double digit victories in New Jersey and Virginia... propelling a new young face in New York showing momentum in pockets of purple and red areas." — Ari Melber [01:02]

2. Rejection of the Trump Agenda

• The results are interpreted as a direct repudiation of Donald Trump's extreme second-term agenda, including government shutdowns, radical policy moves, and perceived autocratic behavior.
• Melber underscores that, contrary to media and elite narratives, Trump’s coalition appears more fragile than recently claimed.

Notable Quote:
"We can de facto end Donald Trump's presidency as we know it. If anyone can show a nation betrayed by Donald Trump how to defeat him, it is the city that gave rise to him. So, Donald Trump, since I know you're watching, I have four words for you. Turn the volume up." — Ari Melber [03:24]

• Voter turnout was particularly high, with new victories across age, race, and region, undermining the claim that MAGA is the new political mainstream.

3. New Political Faces & Changing Coalitions

• Zoran Mamdani, NYC’s first Democratic Socialist mayor, is emblematic of energized, younger, progressive wings turning out in unprecedented numbers.
• Virginia elected its first female governor, Abigail Spanberger; New Jersey's Mikie Sherrill also prevailed.
• The Latino and youth vote surged back toward Democrats.
• Juanita Toliver emphasizes the importance of expanding the Democratic coalition and dropping internal exclusions:
  "Embrace everybody who comes into this party and don't own survival." — Juanita Toliver [23:56]

4. Voter Trends and the Midterm Outlook

• Melber and Michael Steele caution listeners against both triumphalism and despair based on one night, noting many past election narratives have not held up.
• However, Melber points to shifts in generic congressional ballots, House race forecasts (notably in California), and the practical limitations facing a fragile Republican House majority.

Notable Quote:
"Democrats could be on track to pick up over 10 seats, more than enough to end this MAGA one-party rule in Washington that so many voters clearly oppose." — Ari Melber [14:14]

5. The Debate: Lasting Change or Temporary Wave?

• Michael Steele, former RNC Chair, underscores that these results, while significant, don’t guarantee a permanent realignment, likening 2025 to the 2009 elections that didn’t signal the GOP’s large win in the 2010 midterms.
• He notes the importance of infrastructure, organization, and turning out new voters consistently—not just in one wave election.

Notable Quote:
"The reality of it is the work is the thing that matters. The organization, the infrastructure, those things matter... What 2025 said to me, was what works, what doesn't work." — Michael Steele [18:26, 21:46]

6. Key Demographics: Youth & Diversity

• Detailed voter breakdowns show overwhelming support for left-wing and progressive candidates among younger voters (e.g., 75%+ for Mamdani under 30).
• Mamdani, on The Beat earlier, called for a shift away from authoritarianism and a focus on working people: "We need to bring back working people as the focus of our party." — Zoran Mamdani, via Ari Melber [24:51]

7. Republican Response and Denial

• Melber chronicles the GOP’s mixed reaction: from outright denial to acceptance of a "terrible night for Republicans."
• Some, like Steve Bannon, target intra-party blame (e.g., blaming Glenn Youngkin in Virginia), others call for strategic reevaluation (e.g., Ted Cruz).

8. The Supreme Court & Trump’s Power Grab

• Neal Kochal, former Obama White House lawyer, argued before the Supreme Court questioning the legality of Trump’s use of tariffs via emergency powers, with sharp skepticism from even Trump-appointed justices.
• The case is presented as a constitutional test not just about trade, but about the separation of presidential and legislative power.

Notable Quote:
"This case is not about the president. It's about the presidency... and above all, it's about upholding the majestic separation of powers." — Neal Kochal, via Ari Melber [42:41]

9. Pop Culture & Politics: Trolling, Playlists, and Generational Dynamics

• An amusing aside: Melber describes Mamdani’s election-night walkout song—Ja Rule’s "New York, New York"—as a deliberate troll of 50 Cent, who’s been publicly critical of Mamdani's tax policies.
• Music and cultural references are used throughout the episode to illuminate generational divides and connect with listeners.

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• [01:02] – Melber outlines the scale of the Democratic wave and its implications.
• [03:00]–[03:24] – Victorious Democrats’ speeches: “no kings,” “turn the volume up.”
• [07:27]–[08:43] – Real-time reactions as winners are called in New York, Virginia, and New Jersey.
• [10:33] – Analysis of the sweep’s impact on Trump’s narrative and the MAGA brand.
• [17:44]–[21:50] – Michael Steele joins: cautions against overreading results, emphasizes party infrastructure.
• [22:31]–[25:07] – Juanita Toliver on coalition building, New Jersey, turnout in deep red counties.
• [26:13]–[27:18] – Data: Youth turnout and the lessons for Democrats nationally.
• [28:08]–[28:39] – Old leadership vs. new voters; sustaining energy post-election.
• [32:22]–[34:17] – Che Komondori’s analysis: MAGA only wins when Trump’s on the ballot; demographic swings.
• [36:44]–[37:40] – Winning Democratic messages: affordability, cost of living, connecting with real concerns.
• [39:13]–[42:41] – Supreme Court challenge to Trump’s tariffs: separation of powers at stake.
• [43:52] – Zoran Mamdani’s use of hip hop at his victory party, symbolizing generational and cultural change.

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Most Memorable Lines & Moments

• "If anyone can show a nation betrayed by Donald Trump how to defeat him, it is the city that gave rise to him. So, Donald Trump, since I know you're watching, I have four words for you. Turn the volume up." — Ari Melber [03:24]
• "No kings in America." — Juanita Toliver [03:00] and throughout, reflecting both the protests and the electoral verdict.
• "The era of MAGA triumphalism should be over." — Ari Melber [19:03]
• "Embrace everybody who comes into this party and don't own survival." — Juanita Toliver [23:56]

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Tone & Style

The tone is sharp, energetic, and often playful, especially as Melber weaves in references to hip hop, pop culture, and internet memes. Debate is lively but civil among participants, and the emphasis is always on data and real world consequences rather than spin or wishful thinking.

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Conclusion

Ari Melber and guests provide a robust, evidence-driven breakdown of a “political earthquake” for both parties, highlighting new opportunities and challenges for Democrats, the waning power of Trump’s coalition, and the complex dynamics that will shape the crucial 2026 midterm elections. The episode is a must-listen for political junkies and casual observers alike—well beyond the headlines, it captures the mood, data, and voices shaping U.S. politics in the Trump second term era.

Transcript

[Ari Melber]

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[Michael Steele]

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[Ari Melber]

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[Ari Melber]

I'm Ari Melbert. We're reporting on this string of Democratic wins that are clearly upending politics today. The voters turned out and spoke really with one voice across the country. They spoke out and voted against Trump's unpopular second term Democrats reaching, quote, the most important goal in politics. The New York Times reports today, showing they can win and win big sometimes. It is that simple. Democrats, Democratic candidates won decisively double digit victories in New Jersey and Virginia where Dems flipped the governor's mansion, propelling a new young face in New York showing momentum in pockets of purple and red areas, the kind of places that will decide the midterms if past precedent holds. And those midterms are as of this week now just one year away. So will these results shape what comes next? Will they bring a Democratic rejoinder to the MAGA era one year from this week in the midterms? And which results are about these Democratic candidates versus policy debates, which don't depend on the person? Which results are about what is clearly a growing Trump backlash, despite what you may have heard from some smug elites? And what are the other dynamics that actually occurred last night but could be harder to replicate in the future? Let me tell you this right now. Tonight, over the course of this hour, we will report for you and try to bring you the evidence, the numbers, the hard facts, what actually is happening. To answer each of those questions on this special election Post game show tonight, we are going to build on those breaking election results that we reported out across election night. With Michael Steele joining us shortly. He's standing by. Be my first guest tonight in a few moments. We begin right now, though, with a few words from the winners. Seems fitting. And how they touted that the voters rejected, quote, kings and how they will, quote, turn the volume up.

[Juanita Toliver]

Here in New Jersey, we know that this nation has not ever been, nor will it ever be, ruled by kings.

[Ari Melber]

We sent a message to the whole.

[Juanita Toliver]

World that in 2025, Virginia chose pragmatism over partisanship.

[Ari Melber]

And let me make this crystal clear. We can de facto end Donald Trump's presidency as we know it. If anyone can show a nation betrayed by Donald Trump how to defeat him, it is the city that gave rise to him. So, Donald Trump, since I know you're watching, I have four words for you. Turn the volume up. Four words, turn the volume up. Those victorious candidates speaking with the confidence of the mandates they now have for governing voters, recoiling from Trump's extreme second term agenda, which has been very clearly lived and seen across this year, handing Democrats the sweep which marks the big step toward getting their groove back. That's a New York Times headline. Rube Murdoch's Wall Street Journal reports on the clear dent in Trump's coalition because even in blue leaning states, as I'm about to show you, Dems also gained ground in the areas that Trump had previously excelled in. Now, politics is full of spit, but this sweep is clear enough that President Trump is not even trying to lie about the loss, as he did in 2020. Instead, the president rushing to basically put something out there, as they say he likes to post online. He admits the shutdown hurt his Republican Party, while an RNC vet concedes there's no sugar coating these results. They are really bad for the gop. A nonpartisan politico ticking through these Democratic wins. New York's first Democratic socialist mayor, Virginia's first female governor, America's first Muslim woman elected statewide. The Republican Party, they observed, took one hell of a kicking. Politico goes on to ask sarcastically, tired of so much winning, they note the MAGA clapback that these were, quote, the first major election since Trump returned to the White House. And there's no other way of spinning the voter's response. Democrats outperformed expectations in every significant race across America. Now, many of the headlines and sort of the big stories, as they say, have followed some of the key races in blue areas. But the problem for the Republican Party is that this goes beyond a New York City or one blue state, quote unquote. Democrats found momentum across red states as well. They won two seats in Mississippi, a feat that is their best performance there in over a decade. In Georgia, the voters ousted two Republicans from a key local commission. A Democrat hadn't won that office since 2007. Democrats beat back efforts to oust three judges in a state where Trump did win. Pennsylvania, you can call it a swing state or a Trump state, but they prevailed there last night. Wherever people had a chance to vote, the Democrats won. And then you had something that was in, of course, one of the bluest states, California. But their bid to fight fire with water and dowse Trump's off year gerrymandering to rig the midterms also decisively and was backed by a person who may want to run against Trump, California Governor Newsom. Now, these results and these calls came in quickly last night. Nicole and I were just chatting in the handoff about how you stay up late and when we're here in the newsroom, you really don't know what's going to happen. You really do wait on the votes and the votes to be counted. We have had times where it is past 1 2am on the east coast and it's a murky picture. And our job, everyone's job, is supposed to follow the evidence, not spin and wait. But there wasn't a lot of waiting last night because it came in early and quickly because the races were not even close. The Democrats were winning quickly and decisively. And here is how some of those victories sunk in across the news coverage in real time. Our beat team collected the key moments here. And you're going to see it actually takes a minute because there were so many.

[Juanita Toliver]

It is election night here at msnbc. Results are coming in. That could prove to be a test of how his first nine months in office have gone.

[Che Komondori]

Democrats won three high profile races.

[Ari Melber]

Mandy has done an extraordinary job in.

[Michael Steele]

Mobilizing people at the grassroots level.

[Che Komondori]

The winner of the New York City mayoral.

[Ari Melber]

There you go. Will be Zoran Mamdani. Zoran Mamdani completed an improbable and rather astonishing surge. If somebody with the views of Zoramdani could ever win and be mayor of New York City, I don't think I would have believed it. It is a good day for New.

[Michael Steele]

York that that many people have voted.

[Ari Melber]

NBC News can now project that the state of Virginia will have its new governor. Its first ever female governor will be Democrat Abigail Spanberger.

[Che Komondori]

Abigail is exactly the right candidate at exactly the right moment. Abigail Spamberger will be elected the governor of Virginia.

[Ari Melber]

NBC News projects that the Democratic candidate, Congresswoman Mikey Sherrill, has prevailed.

[Che Komondori]

Mikey Sherrill will be elected the next.

[Ari Melber]

Governor of New Jersey.

[Michael Steele]

The over by both of these Democratic candidates in their states, respective states, is.

[Ari Melber]

A big signal, very high turnout, higher turnout than they've seen in a governor's race here in years. I don't think you ever need to.

[Michael Steele]

Look very far in our current politics without wondering what the effect of Donald.

[Ari Melber]

Trump was and is. President Trump downplayed his role in last night's results, blaming it on the shutdown. If people voted on lower prices, they got revenge indictments. And if they voted on jobs, they got doge and a shutdown. Very big night for Democrats. They had a clean sweep in all the major races. They were running in a sweep. A sweep in all the major races. You don't have to be a politics junkie to know what a sweep means. People have seen it in sports. This was decisive. Now, what the voters said, the results here are not just rattling maga, they also really break some of the overreaction and capitulation of Trump among many elites. And so before I bring in Michael, I want to share a word about that context here with you as we cover all this and think about how we got here and why it might seem surprising or even a jolt to people that Republicans just got rejected, that Trump's first year, second term agenda is under fire. So here's a little context. Just bear with me, because I think you'll find this somewhat relevant to the weird moment we're in history. You might remember Donald Trump lost in 2020 by 4 points nationally. It was a clear rejection by the people. Then some did declare his political career completely over. And that narrative was obviously too sweeping. He did return in 2024 with a comeback and he won. He won less decisively than Biden in 20. Trump won by a point and a half amid a tough economy that hurts incumbents. And then we got this other sweeping narrative that popped up, this overstated claim. You've probably heard it from Republicans because it serves their interests. But we've also heard it from the media and from the business community and from others who have all the different reasons that they got there. But this very overstated claim that Trump was now suddenly, after this point and a half shift, maybe now he was very popular or he was the new mainstream or the people who went his way last year, a year ago this week, were now part of some wider permanent coalition where he was doing Better among different groups, including interesting groups that he'd struggle with in the past. Younger people, Latinos. All of that hype for this point and a half margin a year ago has proven even more overstated, misleading than the other past narratives I mentioned. And sometimes the narratives are wrong against him, sometimes they're wrong for him. It's why we always try to deal with evidence and numbers on this show and not the sweeping claims, but Trump and his MAGA agenda. We can now say with another election to count. Trump and his MAGA agenda have fared very poorly among the voters in all but one election they've ever ran in the MAGA era. He got fewer votes in 16, blue wave in 18, lost in 20 by 4 points. I just reminded you, underperformed in 22 after his supreme Court justices broke their vows and reversed women's rights. 24 comeback by a point and a half. And now last night, rejected again, including especially his radical second term iteration. The dark MAGA that we hear about, the hardcore Trump, the masked agents, the revenge indictments, the government shutdown. I don't want to put my hands up too many times, but I'm not being dramatic. I'm listing off the things they've been doing and I'm reminding everyone they never were very popular. They won one election out of a bunch, more narrowly than the Democrats. And last night, the voters have weighed in with people living under Trump's second term. There is a, quote, broad dissatisfaction with Trump among all voters who weighed in. That's what the exit shows, the exit polls that sample everybody. It's an electoral result which reinforces something that we've been covering that Rachel pointed out could be significant from the very beginning. And many journalists on the ground, local reporters, I know it's very popular to attack all of the media all the time these days, but we have all this footage from journalists and citizen reporters and phone videos showing what millions of people are saying, which is no kings in America. They're not saying we could never have a Republican president or everything Donald Trump ever said and did is wrong. They're very specifically saying the admitted autocratic agenda of the second term, which trolls or muses or plans a coup for a third term, which challenges democracy as we know it. They're saying no kings. No to that. If the huge no Kings protests last month were the shot, the New York Times writes, the election was the chaser, with Democrats showing once more that they could turn out to deliver a powerful vote when Mr. Trump is in the White House. So that's just what happened last night, that's what the public is saying. If you look ahead and combine that with some of the punchback political energy that some Democratic states are showing, including the California punch, fight fire with water. As I mentioned, that also could affect next year. A prominent forecaster shifting over 10 House races in California alone towards Democrats because of the results, because how Democrats are fighting back to use power. And so consider the impact on a House that Republicans currently hold by only a thread for the reasons I remind you, they haven't had big blowouts. They had a point and a half margin a year ago. Right now, House Republicans can only afford to actually lose two seats. You have that margin of five, so if you lose three, you lose the House. We put this up very simply as a balance of power. It's a little different than you normally see it because they can only lose two seats. I just showed you they saw 10 shift in the forecast in California and if the trends hold in the purple areas I mentioned, and this is from many forecasts, Democrats could be on track to pick up over 10 seats, more than enough to end this MAGA one party rule in Washington that so many voters clearly oppose. Now, much could change in the next year. We don't need another new overstated narrative. Many of the narratives have evaporated quickly, although it seems that the pro MAGA capitulation narratives are sold by many powerful people with big megaphones more aggressively than the other narratives. So does what happened last night show a path possibly to a very different story than the one we've lived through across this year? A story of public protest. A story where the public will matters, and a story where gerrymandering and redistricting and anti Democratic efforts and troops in the streets are rejected peacefully by the American people. It's a question I'll put to Michael Steele when We're back in 90 seconds.

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[Michael Steele]

It's always in the hotel lobby.

[Ari Melber]

In the lobby it's always right. And they can cut off the drinks. But you and I are still there looking at Poland.

[Michael Steele]

That's it.

[Ari Melber]

This is a very nerdy version of a political party, but political parties.

[Michael Steele]

I'm a nerd, Right.

[Ari Melber]

And you ran the party.

[Michael Steele]

I ran the party.

[Ari Melber]

There we go. I walked through what this could mean with a caution against the sweeping narratives. Yeah. Now that you've digested, what do you see today?

[Michael Steele]

Yeah, I think your caution is appropriate. Look, I'm not going to take away, and no one should take away takeaway from the incredible work that was put into the victories from California to New Jersey. What we saw, especially in New Jersey, given some of the narratives that emerged in the last few weeks about the state of the campaign there and how things were going. The lesson I learned very early on as a young county chairman in Prince George's County, Maryland, is it ain't over until the voters vote. It's not.

[Ari Melber]

I didn't know you were ever young.

[Michael Steele]

Well, you know, that's how I go. Maybe this face doesn't come without some youth to it. But no, look, the reality of it is the work is the thing that matters. The organization, the infrastructure, those things matter. And I think if I am Ken Martin, the head of the dnc, if I'm looking at the various organizations, the dga, they put in the work, the critical piece is how did the voters receive the work and did they respond? And they did. So you don't want to blow it up and make it more than it is. You don't want to fall into the narrative that Republicans are already leveling up, they leveled up last night that somehow the incoming mayor of New York City is the face of the entire Democratic Party across the nation. They want to do that, that memeing as early as they can. You don't want to fall into those traps. But you at the same time don't want to overstate what the victory was because it was off year election. You had state legislative races in play, not congressional seats.

[Ari Melber]

Right. It's different. But let me press you on that projection because the pollsters always ask the question, if the election were held today, how would you vote?

[Michael Steele]

Right.

[Ari Melber]

To your point, the farther you are away from that election doesn't mean much. You say, what do you want for dinner a year from now? You don't even remember your answer. And a lot of people don't look at this as closely as some of us, right? What do you want for dinner tonight or tomorrow? You start to really narrow in. And so these trend lines, if they hold the Wall Street Journal, no friend of Democrats says they are having a comeback. They had the advantage of rallying voters upset at Trump exits show approval at 44 in New Jersey, 42 in Virginia. The era of MAGA triumphalism should be over. And as you know, there are swing states where he's below 40.

[Michael Steele]

That's right. But the era of MAGA triumphalism is not necessarily over.

[Ari Melber]

Because you disagree. Okay.

[Michael Steele]

I disagree simply because this, this is as I looked at 2009, it did not project to me the wins that we would get in in 2010 when.

[Ari Melber]

You were leading Republicans against Obama.

[Michael Steele]

So what I saw 2009 and they.

[Ari Melber]

Won'T even let you in the RNC building now do that anymore. But my, how times change. But go ahead.

[Michael Steele]

But you don't get to deny the wins. Right.

[Ari Melber]

So if you can, if you can.

[Michael Steele]

Clock in 63 House seats in 2026, have at it. But I doubt it. And so here's the thing. What 20 2009, just like 2025 said to me, was what works, what doesn't work. What type of candidates am I looking at or should be looking at as we look at primaries, what kind of folks I need to go out and still find and mine for the upcoming election. So what you saw last night, which I think, again, if I'm the DNC chairman, I'm a happy guy. Sure, I can sell a big tent narrative because I can talk about a Democrat becoming governor in one of the more conservative states. And mark me, it may be blue, but it is a conservative blue in Virginia to a more progressive leaning city like New York.

[Ari Melber]

So, yeah, you're happy.

[Michael Steele]

I've got, I've got the great state of New Jersey.

[Ari Melber]

If you're dnc, you're happy, but you're not done.

[Michael Steele]

You're happy, but you're not done.

[Ari Melber]

Stay with me. I want markers. I'm going to bring in Juanita Toliver. Oh, yeah, Michael's here in our headquarters. Juanita, coming to us from Washington, host of the archival podcast MSNBC Analyst. Here's what Bannon thinks of last night, including the setback in Virginia. Glenn Youngkin, bro, what are you spending time in Iowa? You just ended your political career last night. You destroyed, you destroyed the Republican Party for a generation. There are seats in the House of Delegates that are unfathomable, that could have been law, that were lost last night. Juanita, he's upset. What do you see out there?

[Juanita Toliver]

I'm not sure why he named Glenn Youngkin. I'm looking at Donald Trump, especially his impact on Virginia, specifically with knowing that it houses what, 150,000 plus federal employees who are furloughed right now, who probably absolutely use their time off in a way to support a message against him and the impact he's having on their lives and their ability to afford their lives right now. And so I want to zoom out to that reality because across the Commonwealth of Virginia, Democrats really saw a swing. I'm talking about in some rural counties as well. I appreciate you also earlier mentioning Mississippi and Georgia, Ari, because we saw deep red counties there. I think it's Morgan county had a 50 point swing towards Democrats one year after Donald Trump won it by 43 points, 45 points. What that shows is people are pissed. They see through the crap that Trump and Republicans are putting out there and they're angry and mobilizing against them. I think this is absolutely a building opportunity for Democrats over the next 12 months to continue to develop their coalition. And Michael, I don't agree with you on a lot, but yes, this is a time for a range of Candidates who can convey a message of affordability which does transcend age, race and location in a way that it allows for a wide ranging coalition. Now, my message to Democrats in response to that coalition is you better open your arms wide and embrace the newcomers. I'm saying that thinking about how Mamdani was treated after he won the Democratic primary. I'm saying that thinking about how Democrats who challenged incumbents in 2018 were treated internally in the party as well when there was a blacklist to punish consultants who ran against incumbents. Drop that. Embrace everybody who comes into this party and don't own survival.

[Ari Melber]

And don't drop it like it's hot. Drop it like it's not. I know that's what Michael was about to say.

[Juanita Toliver]

Drop it like it's not too.

[Ari Melber]

Let me, let me play a little bit of the person you mentioned because Ormandani has been both an exciting and at times obviously polarizing figure. He spoke to us about that because we had him on the beat on election eve Monday, which might feel like many did more than two days ago in the current politics. And he spoke very adroitly about what the Democrats can do right. And what they need to fix. Take a look at something Democrats are right about that we have to take on authoritarian administration in Washington, D.C. something Democrats have gotten wrong. We need to bring back working people as the focus of our party. Juanita.

[Juanita Toliver]

100% tapping into the reality that this party is only sustained by people power in a way at a moment in time when Donald Trump is rejecting the people, when he's deprioritizing the needs of the general public, whether it's refusing to pay out SNAP benefits or only paying a portion of it while he doubles and expands funding of ice. Right. Like it shows who cares about the public. And putting them front and center over, over Donald Trump over loyalty to old heads in the party is critical because they're the only way that they're going to have a survival in future, especially if they're looking to expand and take over the house in 26.

[Ari Melber]

So let me, let me take that debate back to Michael Steele and she referred to old heads in general. I already made one age reference. So we're good.

[Michael Steele]

Look, we're good.

[Ari Melber]

But let me show you.

[Michael Steele]

Look, I'm just, all I need now is Simone Sanders Townsend at the table. Remind everybody just how old I am.

[Ari Melber]

Well, but, but, but age, age can be addressed respectfully and not just like that. And we're having fun here. But you know, Lil Uzi Vert said Wait. And then I'm gonna show you the data, and I'm gonna give you your turn.

[Michael Steele]

Okay?

[Ari Melber]

Lil Uzi Vert shout out neon guts. He said, anyone down on me. He lying my money older than Joe Biden. Right. And the Democratic Party has a risk when everyone in their 20s looks up, as they did a year and a half ago, and say, I guess this is the only the old party. Let me take it to the data. And then you get to. You get to close it out. New York city voters under 30 who aren't very active in other years come out 75% for mom Danny, 75 plus 78. Then you go under 44 years old. He's still up. And that's a good coalition there now. Voters over 45, who in many races, including midterms, sometimes control the outcome in New York. I want to point this out. A win is a win, but Cuomo has the majority there. If this were a different year, and that's a credit to Mamdani, that he turned out the youth. But as you've cautioned us over learning the lesson to say this was a perfect campaign that could work nationally, what does that tell you for the Democrats nationwide?

[Michael Steele]

That tells me that, you know, despite the enthusiasm as you see it, you still have to recognize at the end of the day who's going to turn out on a consistent basis. For you, to Juanita's point, you're going to have to translate what happened not just in New York, but then look at what the demographics were telling you in places like New Jersey and Virginia. Right. This goes to what I was saying before I looked at what happened on 09 to set up how I'm gonna look at and execute in 10. Who are my voters? Who are my new voters? You've got a whole lot of new voters now. And so the question is, how do you motivate them? Because look at what happened in 24. You would think after 20, going into 24, people didn't wanna go backwards. And they said, yeah, that's okay. We can go back.

[Ari Melber]

And they did.

[Michael Steele]

10 million stayed home.

[Ari Melber]

So I heard we're not going back. I heard that on the campaign trail.

[Michael Steele]

I heard that on the campaign tr. And guess where we ended up? In the back. So I think the translation to Juanita's point is going to be, how do you keep that energy? What are those voters saying? But here's where the test for Mondame comes in. Running a campaign baby ain't the same as running the city.

[Ari Melber]

Yeah. Politics and pro.

[Michael Steele]

And a Lot of those old heads that y' all talking about run the city.

[Ari Melber]

Boom. Wow. He Juanita, we're out of time. He really wrapped it up together. Respect.

[Juanita Toliver]

But I gotta say, Michael, you look great, friend. You look great.

[Ari Melber]

See? Thank you. Look at that. And that's. We land on there. Michael, Juanita, on a night where a lot of people are trying to make sense of it all and some big momentum for Democrats. Thanks, you guys, and thanks for the civil debate because we really got into the numbers by the end of the hour. We have an update from the Supreme Court where Neal Kochal was in the courtroom today going after the Trump trade war. We also have an Obama campaign bet coming up about what the implications are of MAGA back on its heels. Now, I gotta say, tonight was a terrible night for Republicans. It was a terrible night for conservatives. A lot of Democrats feeling like last night was the party Michael Steele and I were discussing, the after party. For Republicans, it's been something more of a political hangover. The GOP seeing reactions that range from a kind of shock that this happened last night to denial to acceptance. Republicans did not have a good day. So anyone who says, well, not really that, but no, it was bad. Jack Cittarelli, I thought, was a really strong candidate. I thought his message was clear and crisp. I was surprised he lost by surprised he lost it all, let alone by double digits. I don't think the loss last night was any reflection about Republicans at all. I gotta say, tonight was a terrible night for Republicans. It was a terrible night for conservatives. That's just a sampling. One Republican politician in denial or spin, another just saying it's terrible. The other thing that's happening is a reset of the idea that Donald Trump and MAGA are on some ascendance and you have to just live with it and deal with it because they're here forever. We've seen law firms that previously vowed independence have folded, universities and corporations rethinking whether bending the knee makes sense when only 37% approve of this stuff. And we are in the early days of an apparent possible long term revolt. Trump had his worst disapproval rating ever going into last night. Worse than after January 6th. And so you take this all together and then remember the great Gatsby of it all, these tone deaf 1 percenter parties while the government remains shut down and the Republicans are in charge. Democrats thinking this through and some reaching for Parks and Rec. This is a pop culture moment about a failure to read the room. Let's get started with our first slide. Well, well, well. You blew it super hard. Complete buffoonery. It's hilarious and you deserve it. If you blew it, would you want to know again? Republican Ted Cruz says yes. He's trying to jolt his party to deal with this before it gets worse in the next election. The House speaker says we're fine. What are the actual impacts as others have bent the knee? Che Komondori, the Obama vet, has been thinking it all through. We'll get his first reaction to this race next.

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[Ari Melber]

Ryan Reynolds here from Mint Mobile. Now I don't know if you've heard, but Mint's Premium Wireless is $15 a month. But I'd like to offer one other perk. We have no stores. That means no small talk, crazy weather we're having. No, it's not. It's just weather. It is an introvert's dream. Give it a [e-mail] Switch upfront payment of $45 for a three month plan $15 per month equivalent required. New customer offer first three months only, then full price plan options available, taxes and fees extra. See mintmobile.com Running a business is hard enough, so why make it harder with a dozen different apps that don't talk to each other? Introducing Odoo, the only business software you'll ever need. It's an all in one fully integrated platform that makes your work easier from CRM, accounting, inventory, E commerce, and more. And the best part, Odoo replaces multiple expensive platforms for a fraction of the cost. That's why over thousands of businesses have made the switch. So why not you try Odoo for [e-mail] that's o-o o.com we're back with Obama campaign veteran Che Koman Durie. The voters have now spoken for the first time we've been able to hear them in this Trump second term. And now we're hearing from more voters and people reacting to what we learned last night. Here's some people on TikTok.

[Juanita Toliver]

Today was the first day in years.

[Ari Melber]

That didn't feel like we were being.

[Juanita Toliver]

Sucked into a vortex of hot tar and angry sharks.

[Ari Melber]

Y' all get it now. Do you understand what's possible now when you vote California?

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Virginia has secured the largest win in decades.

[Che Komondori]

In Pennsylvania, we retained three Supreme Court judges.

[Juanita Toliver]

So thank you so much for voting.

[Ari Melber]

Jay, what is the significance of these results?

[Che Komondori]

I think it shows that the country is not moving in a MAGA direction. I think that we have a lot of evidence going into the midterm that when Trump is not on the ballot, the MAGA movement is like the shark at the end of Jaws. Despite its previous ferociousness at the end of that movie, it ended up getting blown up to bits. And that's exactly what we saw last night. Trump was not on the ballot, as he was not on the ballot in 22, as he was not on the ballot in 18, as he was now on the ballot in 17. And Democrats had a really good night.

[Ari Melber]

And he'll never be on the ballot again under constitutional law.

[Che Komondori]

Exactly. You know, which is also why I think Steve Bannon keeps talking about Trump 2028, because he kind of knows that without Trump on the ballot, who knows what's going to happen with this movement? You know, it's not really much of a movement. It cannot win elections. The one election that MAGA basically won without Trump on the ballot was Glenn Youngkin's victory in 21. And Glenn Youngkin was the least MAGA. MAGA person you can imagine. I mean, there's not a whole lot of cardigans at those MAGA rallies, you know, and so that is the kind of candidate that they would have to really put forward.

[Ari Melber]

Now, there is. I don't want to quibble. There may have been some cashmere at the Great Gatsby Party.

[Che Komondori]

I think there probably definitely was some cashmere at that. At that party. But I also remember how the Great Gatsby ends up. The Great Gatsby ends up quite tragically for all the. For a lot of. For Jay Gatsby himself, you know, and so I just wonder why you would sort of put that front and center as something you're gonna toss out there, especially at time. Yeah, especially a time when people are struggling.

[Ari Melber]

Yeah. And I want to get you on the impact. We've done a lot on the results last night. We focused on the results and changes. Governor's mansions, look towards the next races. Then there's the sort of soft political, economic, elite dynamic. Does this result suggest that some of those who've been outwardly capitulating to Trump on the theory that he's either popular or that he and his movement will be ruling for a long time. Does second guess those so called tactics?

[Che Komondori]

I think it definitely does. I mean, if you look at one of the most important things, young people voted heavily for Democrats last night. The Latino community swung back heavily towards Democrats last night. You know, the things that really worried Democrats going forward into the future were simply did not happen last night. In addition, the Democrats do have a winning message going forward, which is affordability and cost of living. I mean, we have been talking about income inequality in this country for 15 years, but we finally have figured out how to talk about it in a way that wins over voters, which is not necessarily to talk about how much money you're taking in, but how much money you're spending out and how groceries cost too much, housing cost too much, higher education costs too much. Basic life and necessities simply cost too much. Having a good, humane life is simply too expensive in this country. And that was a message that we had throughout the country.

[Ari Melber]

And should we be measuring this in the normal way when these aren't normal times, when the government is trying to get comedians fired, get universities to change the way they allow free speech and thought, is there some dividend that Trump even got already with those basically autocratic censorship efforts, or should we measure it normally?

[Che Komondori]

Well, I mean, if you think about this, all right, Trump has lost, I would say, about half a point every month since the inauguration. It has been a very slow erosion. We have not yet had, I think, a Katrina moment where it's an inflection point and the whole thing is a collapse going forward that has not occurred. It's been a very slow erosion. And people have seen what Trump is doing, the way he's behaving, the steady drumbeat from Democrats about how Trump is trying to be a king, and he's trying to be a king who is ignoring your deepest concerns. Yeah, that steady drumbeat, it does work and is working. The problem is that we kind of expect that we're gonna get up one morning and the whole thing will be that Trump will be at 10%. That's not gonna happen. We just have to keep the same drumbeat going on and the erosion will occur.

[Ari Melber]

Yeah. Che Komindori. Thank you. Up next, we turn to the Supreme Court, where Obama's lawyer there, Neal Kochal, who you might remember was the one in court going at Trump's tariffs.

[Michael Steele]

Only Congress has the power to impose.

[Ari Melber]

Tariffs on the American people.

[Michael Steele]

And tariffs are nothing but taxes on.

[Ari Melber]

The American people, people paid by Americans. This Kate. President Trump has tried to seize many new powers in this second term and put them inside the White House today. That was tested before the Supreme Court. Now this isn't about immigration or war. The court hearing arguments on whether Trump's famous, much hyped tariffs are even legal. Neal Kochal, who was a Supreme Court lawyer in the Obama administration, very well known to legal and news viewers, argued against Trump's power grab.

[Michael Steele]

This president has torn up the entire tariff architecture.

[Ari Melber]

That is just not something that any.

[Michael Steele]

President has ever had the power to do in our history.

[Ari Melber]

And the idea that Congress by implication did this in 1977 and handed him all this power, I think is really difficult. That's the attack on the statute. Now Trump did do this without Congress, which generally has more power in these areas. And he used an Emergency Powers Act. Remember, that's a playbook he's used in several other areas like immigration. Here the court looking at it only on trade. Some of the justices sounded skeptical. Sharp questioning from both sides of the aisle. We have never applied it to foreign affairs. But this is a tariff. This is a tax. It is a, it is a, if I may, it's a foreign facing regulation of foreign commerce. The vehicle is imposition of taxes on, on Americans. And that has always been the core power of Congress. What would prohib Congress from just abdicating all responsibility to regulate foreign commerce, for that matter, declare war to the President? It's a one way ratchet toward the gradual but continual accretion of power in the executive branch and away from the people's elected representative. That's a question, but it sure sounds like a criticism from Trump appointee Gorsuch. Saying one way power only to the White House away from the people is seemingly bad, but it's a question, as we always say, you can't infer too much. Then another Trump appointee, Barrett, who's emerged as sometimes a key swing vote, said this. These are kind of across the board. And so is it your contention that every country needed to be tariffed because of threats to the defense and industrial. I mean Spain, France, interpreting a statute that grants presidential power makes it particularly hard to get the President to not want to veto something. She is a skilled lawyer, judge and questioner and what she's doing there is just poking holes really. She's saying you think you have these powers across every country, even when there isn't necessarily the foundation or basis. So she's naming countries that might not apply to like Spain and just questioning the whole power grab. It's a bad sign for the administration's argument although they might also end up with a kind of a balanced decision where the court takes something away but allows a lot of tariffs to continue. Kochil argues the case has a huge impact beyond just trade. But what I mentioned, the power grabs and the separation of constitutional powers. This case is not about the president.

[Michael Steele]

It'S about the presidency.

[Ari Melber]

It's not about partisanship, it's about principle. And above all, it's about upholding the majestic separation of powers laced into our Constitution that is the foundation for our government. There are many different storylines to follow in last night's victories, but one of the newest faces was undoubtedly this young 34 year old mayor elect in New York, Zoran Mamdani. And while he has attracted attention for his remarks, for his style, for his policy, he's also been very effective on social media, online, where so much happens today and dealing with music and culture, which is a big deal in New York. And we discussed that, including his walkout music to last night's victory in our coverage. At the victory party, they did play some 50 cent even though they've been clashing over tax policy. 50 wants lower taxes for millionaires. Zorn wants higher taxes. But footnote he walked out to Ja Rules New York, New York that is 50 Cent's biggest enemy. They had a long running feud and Zormandani, unlike some people, actually is involved in his playlist. I do have to say, even though we have a disagreement on tax policy, every time I get a death threat, I say still listen to many men. That last line was from Donnie on election eve in our Beat interview Monday, showing his facility with so many topics. He clearly knew some 50 cent songs off the top of his head even though they've been debating taxes. And last night he and his DJ showed he knows that Ja Rule is a sworn enemy and apparently he knows a thing or two about New York hip hop and trolling. 50 Cent, no stranger to the beat, has been responding in public, online and still questioning the financial plans of the new mayor elect. If it's politics or music, we will try to have you covered. Thanks for watching.

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Did you know that parents rank financial literacy as the number one most difficult life skill to teach? Meet Greenlight, the debit card and money app for families with Greenlight, you can set up chores, automate allowance and keep an eye on your kids spending with real time notifications. Kids learn to earn, save and spend wisely and parents can rest easy knowing their kids are learning about money with guardrails in place. Sign up for Greenlight today at greenlight. Com podcast.