Podcast Summary: The Beat with Ari Melber

Episode: Trump’s Approval at Lowest Point of Term
Date: November 11, 2025
Host: Ari Melber (MSNBC)
Featured Guests: James Carville, Adam Green, Ty Cobb

Episode Overview

Ari Melber examines Donald Trump’s historically low approval ratings amid recent Democratic election victories, discusses the implications of fresh Trump pardons for 2020 coup plotters, and hosts lively, thoughtful exchanges with Democratic strategist James Carville, progressive leader Adam Green, and former Trump White House lawyer Ty Cobb. The episode delves into why voters are turning against Trump’s agenda, the political fallout from the recent government shutdown, Democratic Party infighting, Trump’s autocratic tactics, and provocative new developments around the Jeffrey Epstein files.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Trump’s Cratering Approval & Democratic Victory Sweep

• Melber opens with analysis of national data showing Trump’s approval rating “cratering to a new low,” tying this to Democratic electoral wins and public backlash.
  • Main drivers of voter rejection: Affordability issues (healthcare, grocery, everyday costs), perceived corruption, and “gratuitous cruelty” (e.g., harsh immigration/enforcement policies).
  • Voters across the ideological spectrum—including centrists and progressives—turned away from MAGA-style politics.
  • Ari Melber, 02:10: “It’s a tone deaf choice that comes amid those huge Democratic wins... right now it is a picture that overwhelmingly rejects whatever this first year of Donald Trump’s second term stands for and is demanding change.”

2. James Carville’s Take: The Political Earthquake

• Carville describes the Democratic victories as “complete and impressive,” especially in swing regions like Pennsylvania’s Erie and Bucks Counties.
  • Cites both economic issues (“affordability”) and moral disgust (“corruption and cruelty”) as crucial voter motivators.
  • James Carville, 05:21: “There was no—It was all across the board. Maybe the most impressive at the pick one out was what happened in Pennsylvania... this was about affordability. It was a big issue.”
  • Argues Democrats must keep focused on central messages, warning against self-inflicted wounds from internal squabbles.

3. Government Shutdown: Political Fallout and Democratic Divisions

• Melber and Carville discuss the (possibly ending) record-long government shutdown, noting that while Democratic moderates backed a deal (with little immediate gain), many progressive activists saw it as a cave-in.
  • James Carville’s pragmatic counsel: “Get it off your chest ... and then let’s try reorient our artillery where it’s supposed to be fired at, and that’s at them, not us.” (10:24)
  • Expresses that, politically, the offer to extend healthcare subsidies was “throwing them a lifeline” that GOP rejected, arguing this will favor Democrats in coming elections.

4. Obama’s Rare Intervention & The Value of Diversity

• Melber plays a clip of Barack Obama, who lauds the Democratic resurgence and the public’s rejection of cruelty and autocracy.
  • Barack Obama, 13:09: “The American people are paying attention. They don’t want cruelty. They’re not looking for people on the top trying to entrench themselves in power.”
• James Carville doubles down: “It’s fundamental to being a Democrat that tolerance, inclusion, diversity... pretty much the whole identity of what it means.”

5. Grassroots Lessons from New NYC Mayor Zoran Mamdani

• Analysis of New York’s mayoral race, where Zoran Mamdani (a left-leaning candidate) won by relentlessly focusing on affordability and cost-of-living, energizing diverse, youth-heavy coalitions.
  • Carville and Adam Green (PCCC) both praise Mamdani’s message discipline and voter inspiration.
  • Carville, 19:42: “He just would not get out of his affordability message. And I think people were just looking for something different in New York.”
  • Green emphasizes that having a bold, people-focused vision—naming villains and telling a story—motivates voters far beyond “milquetoast” campaigns or anti-Trump backlash.

6. Dem Party Leadership, Accountability, Midterm Implications

• Adam Green of the PCCC argues Senate leader Schumer should step aside after the shutdown “failure,” citing uninspiring leadership.
  • Adam Green, 24:35: “In other countries, when a leader fails, they step down immediately... Only in this country are we saddled with people who lose over and over again.”
• Carville responds that while internal debates matter, “people were motivated last Tuesday and Schumer was the majority.”

7. Trump’s Pardons & Continued Autocratic Threat

• Ari Melber unpacks Trump’s new round of federal pardons for 77 figures tied to the 2020 election plot (e.g., Giuliani, Mark Meadows, John Eastman), underscoring their symbolic and strategic purposes.
  • Ty Cobb (ex-Trump White House lawyer) warns these pardons are signals and recruiting tools for future anti-democratic acts.
  • Ty Cobb, 35:34: “He’ll have their back. They'll be pardoned, they'll be protected... all they need to do is whatever he asks them to do.”
  • Cobb explains the decimation of DOJ election law enforcement (“guardrails… are down”) and issues a warning: “I think they intend to run whatever through it they can.”
  • Melber: “We might be talking about the next January [6th].”

8. Trump’s Revenge Tactics & The 2028 Threat

• Discussion with Cobb about Trump’s vengeful prosecutions of political adversaries and Steve Bannon’s open calls for Trump to keep power beyond constitutional limits.
  • Cobb dismisses the likelihood of Trump successfully running in 2028, but flags the risk of attempts to subvert democratic norms or legal boundaries.

9. Epstein Files and Intelligence Speculation

• Cobb touches on the Democratic House’s potential access to Epstein files and suggests, with caveats, that intelligence agencies may be suppressing sensitive information tied to Epstein.
  • Ty Cobb, 44:09: “What you won’t ever see is whatever it is that the CIA is holding back. And I think the CIA has been an active participant in preventing those materials from coming forward.”

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Ari Melber (02:10): “It is a let them eat steak or let them eat crypto moment for our unequal Great Gatsby era.”
• James Carville (05:21): “Erie is, by the way, the swingiest county in the swingiest state... That is almost politically impossible.”
• Barack Obama (13:09): “They don’t want cruelty. They’re not looking for people on the top trying to entrench themselves in power.”
• Adam Green (21:21): “Are you willing to name a villain? Are you willing to tell a story, or are you just gonna have a milquetoast boring campaign or rely on anti Trump backlash?”
• Ty Cobb (35:34): “He’ll have their back... all they need to do is whatever he asks them to do.”
• Ari Melber (36:39): “A coup is not a solo activity. If you want to do it legally you need lawyers. If you want to do it with force, you're going to need the heads of the agencies or military.”
• James Carville (26:11): “I'm not sure that we lost. I think we got our signature issue for the 2026 campaigns front and center.”

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [00:51] – Ari Melber’s opening; Trump’s falling approval and Democrats’ electoral wins
• [05:21] – James Carville: Detailed breakdown of Democratic victories and causes
• [07:20] – Shutdown saga: Political analysis and internal Democratic conflicts
• [13:09] – Obama’s remarks praising the public’s rejection of cruelty
• [19:42] – Carville & Adam Green on New York’s mayoral race and messaging
• [24:35] – Adam Green on Democratic leadership post-shutdown
• [30:54] – Melber on Trump’s pardons; Carville, Obama, Cobb chime in on consequences
• [33:43] – Ty Cobb warns pardons are about prepping for future anti-democratic acts
• [35:34] – Cobb: “He’ll have their back. They'll be pardoned...”
• [40:43] – Trump’s revenge prosecutions and Bannon/Beyond 2028 threat
• [44:09] – Cobb speculates on Epstein, intelligence, and suppressed files

Style, Tone & Final Thoughts

Ari Melber and his guests keep a tone that is urgent, direct, and at times wry—never shying from strong opinions or plainspoken warnings. The dialogue is substantive, policy-rich, skeptical of “spin,” and anchored in both recent events and historical perspective. Carville provides his trademark mix of humor and hardball, Green is analytic and activist, Cobb is legalistic and grave.

Those who haven’t heard the episode but want real insight into current US politics—especially the dangers, dynamics, and evolving Democratic strategy—will find this summary a thorough roadmap.