Trump's Approval at Lowest Point of Term

Summary

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Podcast Summary: The Beat with Ari Melber

Episode: Trump’s Approval at Lowest Point of Term
Date: November 11, 2025
Host: Ari Melber (MSNBC)
Featured Guests: James Carville, Adam Green, Ty Cobb

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Episode Overview

Ari Melber examines Donald Trump’s historically low approval ratings amid recent Democratic election victories, discusses the implications of fresh Trump pardons for 2020 coup plotters, and hosts lively, thoughtful exchanges with Democratic strategist James Carville, progressive leader Adam Green, and former Trump White House lawyer Ty Cobb. The episode delves into why voters are turning against Trump’s agenda, the political fallout from the recent government shutdown, Democratic Party infighting, Trump’s autocratic tactics, and provocative new developments around the Jeffrey Epstein files.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Trump’s Cratering Approval & Democratic Victory Sweep

• Melber opens with analysis of national data showing Trump’s approval rating “cratering to a new low,” tying this to Democratic electoral wins and public backlash.
  • Main drivers of voter rejection: Affordability issues (healthcare, grocery, everyday costs), perceived corruption, and “gratuitous cruelty” (e.g., harsh immigration/enforcement policies).
  • Voters across the ideological spectrum—including centrists and progressives—turned away from MAGA-style politics.
  • Ari Melber, 02:10: “It’s a tone deaf choice that comes amid those huge Democratic wins... right now it is a picture that overwhelmingly rejects whatever this first year of Donald Trump’s second term stands for and is demanding change.”

2. James Carville’s Take: The Political Earthquake

• Carville describes the Democratic victories as “complete and impressive,” especially in swing regions like Pennsylvania’s Erie and Bucks Counties.
  • Cites both economic issues (“affordability”) and moral disgust (“corruption and cruelty”) as crucial voter motivators.
  • James Carville, 05:21: “There was no—It was all across the board. Maybe the most impressive at the pick one out was what happened in Pennsylvania... this was about affordability. It was a big issue.”
  • Argues Democrats must keep focused on central messages, warning against self-inflicted wounds from internal squabbles.

3. Government Shutdown: Political Fallout and Democratic Divisions

• Melber and Carville discuss the (possibly ending) record-long government shutdown, noting that while Democratic moderates backed a deal (with little immediate gain), many progressive activists saw it as a cave-in.
  • James Carville’s pragmatic counsel: “Get it off your chest ... and then let’s try reorient our artillery where it’s supposed to be fired at, and that’s at them, not us.” (10:24)
  • Expresses that, politically, the offer to extend healthcare subsidies was “throwing them a lifeline” that GOP rejected, arguing this will favor Democrats in coming elections.

4. Obama’s Rare Intervention & The Value of Diversity

• Melber plays a clip of Barack Obama, who lauds the Democratic resurgence and the public’s rejection of cruelty and autocracy.
  • Barack Obama, 13:09: “The American people are paying attention. They don’t want cruelty. They’re not looking for people on the top trying to entrench themselves in power.”
• James Carville doubles down: “It’s fundamental to being a Democrat that tolerance, inclusion, diversity... pretty much the whole identity of what it means.”

5. Grassroots Lessons from New NYC Mayor Zoran Mamdani

• Analysis of New York’s mayoral race, where Zoran Mamdani (a left-leaning candidate) won by relentlessly focusing on affordability and cost-of-living, energizing diverse, youth-heavy coalitions.
  • Carville and Adam Green (PCCC) both praise Mamdani’s message discipline and voter inspiration.
  • Carville, 19:42: “He just would not get out of his affordability message. And I think people were just looking for something different in New York.”
  • Green emphasizes that having a bold, people-focused vision—naming villains and telling a story—motivates voters far beyond “milquetoast” campaigns or anti-Trump backlash.

6. Dem Party Leadership, Accountability, Midterm Implications

• Adam Green of the PCCC argues Senate leader Schumer should step aside after the shutdown “failure,” citing uninspiring leadership.
  • Adam Green, 24:35: “In other countries, when a leader fails, they step down immediately... Only in this country are we saddled with people who lose over and over again.”
• Carville responds that while internal debates matter, “people were motivated last Tuesday and Schumer was the majority.”

7. Trump’s Pardons & Continued Autocratic Threat

• Ari Melber unpacks Trump’s new round of federal pardons for 77 figures tied to the 2020 election plot (e.g., Giuliani, Mark Meadows, John Eastman), underscoring their symbolic and strategic purposes.
  • Ty Cobb (ex-Trump White House lawyer) warns these pardons are signals and recruiting tools for future anti-democratic acts.
  • Ty Cobb, 35:34: “He’ll have their back. They'll be pardoned, they'll be protected... all they need to do is whatever he asks them to do.”
  • Cobb explains the decimation of DOJ election law enforcement (“guardrails… are down”) and issues a warning: “I think they intend to run whatever through it they can.”
  • Melber: “We might be talking about the next January [6th].”

8. Trump’s Revenge Tactics & The 2028 Threat

• Discussion with Cobb about Trump’s vengeful prosecutions of political adversaries and Steve Bannon’s open calls for Trump to keep power beyond constitutional limits.
  • Cobb dismisses the likelihood of Trump successfully running in 2028, but flags the risk of attempts to subvert democratic norms or legal boundaries.

9. Epstein Files and Intelligence Speculation

• Cobb touches on the Democratic House’s potential access to Epstein files and suggests, with caveats, that intelligence agencies may be suppressing sensitive information tied to Epstein.
  • Ty Cobb, 44:09: “What you won’t ever see is whatever it is that the CIA is holding back. And I think the CIA has been an active participant in preventing those materials from coming forward.”

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Ari Melber (02:10): “It is a let them eat steak or let them eat crypto moment for our unequal Great Gatsby era.”
• James Carville (05:21): “Erie is, by the way, the swingiest county in the swingiest state... That is almost politically impossible.”
• Barack Obama (13:09): “They don’t want cruelty. They’re not looking for people on the top trying to entrench themselves in power.”
• Adam Green (21:21): “Are you willing to name a villain? Are you willing to tell a story, or are you just gonna have a milquetoast boring campaign or rely on anti Trump backlash?”
• Ty Cobb (35:34): “He’ll have their back... all they need to do is whatever he asks them to do.”
• Ari Melber (36:39): “A coup is not a solo activity. If you want to do it legally you need lawyers. If you want to do it with force, you're going to need the heads of the agencies or military.”
• James Carville (26:11): “I'm not sure that we lost. I think we got our signature issue for the 2026 campaigns front and center.”

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• [00:51] – Ari Melber’s opening; Trump’s falling approval and Democrats’ electoral wins
• [05:21] – James Carville: Detailed breakdown of Democratic victories and causes
• [07:20] – Shutdown saga: Political analysis and internal Democratic conflicts
• [13:09] – Obama’s remarks praising the public’s rejection of cruelty
• [19:42] – Carville & Adam Green on New York’s mayoral race and messaging
• [24:35] – Adam Green on Democratic leadership post-shutdown
• [30:54] – Melber on Trump’s pardons; Carville, Obama, Cobb chime in on consequences
• [33:43] – Ty Cobb warns pardons are about prepping for future anti-democratic acts
• [35:34] – Cobb: “He’ll have their back. They'll be pardoned...”
• [40:43] – Trump’s revenge prosecutions and Bannon/Beyond 2028 threat
• [44:09] – Cobb speculates on Epstein, intelligence, and suppressed files

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Style, Tone & Final Thoughts

Ari Melber and his guests keep a tone that is urgent, direct, and at times wry—never shying from strong opinions or plainspoken warnings. The dialogue is substantive, policy-rich, skeptical of “spin,” and anchored in both recent events and historical perspective. Carville provides his trademark mix of humor and hardball, Green is analytic and activist, Cobb is legalistic and grave.

Those who haven’t heard the episode but want real insight into current US politics—especially the dangers, dynamics, and evolving Democratic strategy—will find this summary a thorough roadmap.

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Transcript

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[Ari Melber]

Welcome to the beat everyone. I'm Ari Melbourne and we have James Carville here standing by to break down this election news. We haven't heard from you since then on this program and the news coming out of Congress. So James is moments away. Later in the show, more Epstein news haunting Donald Trump. And big developments on Donald Trump pardoning people who tried to overthrow his 2020 loss. A reinforcement of Trump's very public position against the police. Well, you see they're trying to hold back the barricades and in favor of convicts who attacked him or who organized these higher level coup plots. So we have that important story later tonight. We begin with the ongoing rejection of Donald Trump's agenda. We saw that in the aggregate in Tuesday's election sweep. We also have anecdotal evidence coming in over the weekend. It is the kind that Donald Trump specifically despises. Public televised boos. You can hear him at the NFL game this weekend. Please raise. And on it went. It is not a sound that he likes. It's also pretty much what democracy sounds like right now. I mentioned that as just anecdotal. Just one moment in one game. It also depends on where the camera and the mics are. But here is national data that goes even beyond Tuesday that can't be minimized or ignored. The president's approval cratering to a new low. This chart shows how Trump's dropping approval has been only a negative in the first year of this term. Like any chart or any stock market indication right you have some gyrations. But the overall message from the far left there is when he started January 20, through last week's election defeats and on through this tough period he's had now, why is he doing so poorly in this? Net gain, net loss, approval. A part of it has to do with his failure to control costs or deal with rising prices. The type of things he ran on just a year ago. Healthcare, groceries, everyday life. Those are the things that people clearly reacted to going into the election booth. And people waited in line in all kinds of places. People voted for liberal Democrats, Democratic socialists, centrist Democrats. One thing they didn't do is vote for anything that smacked of the MAGA agenda. So when you take it all together, it doesn't mean that we know exactly where people will be a year from now or which brand of Democratic progressivism is the most popular in every part of the country. It does mean, as the Washington Post, the kind of paper Political Record put it, that it's the affordability, stupid. That of course, is a paraphrase of James Carville, who's standing by Trump allies are saying maybe he got the message or maybe he'll talk more about affordability. But he is still throwing lavish parties at Mar a Lago, another one this weekend. It's a let them eat steak or let them eat crypto moment for our unequal Great Gatsby era. It's a tone deaf choice that comes amid those huge Democratic wins. And so you take it all together and as is sometimes the case in politics or life, think about where you were just one week ago Monday night election eve. If you follow news and politics, you'd probably read some of the headlines that it could be close. And there was a lot of drama in New York and it could be kind of a close race in New Jersey, where of course one year prior MAGA did pretty well, increasing the gains among young men and Latinos. Well, here we are, not just one week later. And it sounds and feels so different. But what's different is only that the voters finally spoke. They weren't crowded out by autocratic MAGA tantrums or calls to control what you see on your TV or cancel Jimmy Kimmel. They weren't over dramatized by ICE agents and mass snatching people up off the streets. When you turn down the volume of all of that and as the mayor elect said in New York, turn up the volume of the people, you get a very different picture. And right now it is a picture that overwhelmingly rejects whatever this first year of Donald Trump's Second term stands for and is demanding change. With that in mind, we turn to James Carville, who knows his way around a change election or two. I wanted to get your reaction to what Tuesday night's Democratic sweep meant as well as anything else you want to weigh in on right now.

[James Carville]

Well, thank you, Ari. First of all, it was complete and it was impressive. I mean, and there was no. It was all across the board. Maybe the most impressive at the pick one out was what happened in Pennsylvania. It was Supreme Court retention that got 62%. A county executive race in Erie, Pennsylvania, The Democrat got 24.6. That is impossible. That is almost politically impossible. Erie is, by the way, the swingiest county in the swingiest state. Understand that. I don't think any presidential candidate has gotten above 52 in this century. That's how tight Erie is. You go all the way to the. To the eastern part of Pennsylvania, and you see Bucks county, which is another real, real swing county, where you see the Democrats ousted Republican DA and a Republican sheriff by double digits. So everything was impressive. I think what Governor Spiro and his team did in Pennsylvania probably stands out as impressive as anything I've seen in one state. But understand, this was about affordability. It was a big issue. And the economy. But I think corruption and cruelty also had a lot to do with this. I think it was just a revulsion. I think people saw the gratuitous cruelty separating people from children, from parents, not allow priests to say mass to immigrants just going. And people experiencing the cruelty they saw on tv. And you cannot watch. The corruption that's taken place is ongoing. As you pointed out in your opening piece, the Great Gatsby. I don't think Trump knows who the Great Gatsby is. I defend him on that idea, who Scott Fitzgerald is or any of that nonsense. But, yeah, it was a good. It was a great win. And I think we're gonna have a big win coming up in November of 2026. I do.

[Ari Melber]

That's Triton coming from you. And as shown the Post and other places, paraphrase you, because you not only seem to get it sometimes, but you got it when your party didn't. The other news out of D.C. tonight, of course, is the longest ever government shutdown, which may be ending soon. James is going to hang with me. I'm going to update people. The Dems have sort of backed down in order to reopen the government, and they say there'll be a later GOP kind of promise vote on Obamacare funding. Now, some Democrats are arguing that this outcome works. They made their point. They showed the country the facts. They did in that process damage Trump politically. You see that in him himself. Acknowledging the shutdown hurt them. Tuesday, they highlighted health care and so on. On the other hand, most of the Democratic caucus isn't down with this, not yet anyway. The moderates who broke to do the deal, none of them are up for reelection. And so there's even headlines about furious liberal activists blasting this approach. A kind of a cave, I will say before I bring James back in that for context on this story, the wider trend is a bit more mixed across history. Here's one political analyst, Matt Glassman, and he writes that if you just look at the four long shutdowns the party trying to leverage, the shutdown loses. That was the GINGRICH Republicans in 95, the Cruz Obamacare opponents in 13. True for the Trump border wall shutdown in 2019. He reminds everyone it was also true for the brief Senate Democrats effort in 2018. They folded in two days over a weekend. And so the other big change, as I want to tell viewers before I bring James Carville back, is you're waking up this week to an end to what is now the longest shutdown in history. The underlying political dynamics on that aren't very different because there isn't a drastic shift in how we're funding the government or what's going to happen to health care money. But there is now a break in that impasse as we head into Thanksgiving travel. James, your view on the shutdown news?

[James Carville]

Well, my view on the shutdown news is everybody you have until 1800 hours wins. The 1800 hours is 6 o'. Clock. I think that's when you, let's say 1900 so they can go on your show to complain about it, then shut up and start talking about Republicans. Okay, that's enough whining, enough coughing. All right. And by the way, this pass just means one thing. The House has to come back to Washington to pass this legislation. Mike Johnson's gonna have to bring them back. And when they come back, they're gonna have the little Epstein problem they're trying to avoid. So maybe this vote suck the Republicans back into Washington, but I don't know procedure. I don't think in 10 days from now it's gonna mean deadly squat. But let's.

[Ari Melber]

Well, let me, let me slow you down. Let me slow you down and let you respond. James, you got people who open up their phones today and they're seeing, oh, Dem wins and the government think we're moving on and go on with your life, which to some people is great news, especially depending on if you're traveling or how you work. Other people open their phones and they're seeing some writers, some liberals saying, democrats caving again, civil war. What do you see in the phone in your mind's eye?

[James Carville]

What I see is for people who are complaining, they said they wanted to stand tough and people said, well, what. In the polling it was looking good. Some people say they were about to break. I know most of the eight senators personally. I think they're all decent people. But I don't want this to get in the way. But I would. Central message. And the things that brought us this big win not even a week ago. And if you got something on your chest, you ought to get it off, but get it off like between now and 7:00 Eastern Wednesday. Okay. And then let's. Then let's try reorient our artillery where it's supposed to be fired at, and that's at them, not us. And then.

[Ari Melber]

All right, so. Well, let me go, let me follow. Because here we are inside the James Carville window. We are before 7pm Eastern. So I guess we're allowed to do a little quibble, is your view. Basically, it was probably going to end like this anyway because to paraphrase the liberal critics, there's some of them are saying, well, what was the point of all this if you didn't get much.

[James Carville]

I know. I thought, I thought we were throwing them a lifeline by extending these health care subsidies, which would apply to a lot of people. I was like, maybe we given. We started out and they didn't want to take that. All right. Understand that what the Democrats were trying to do would actually help tens of millions of their own people.

[Ari Melber]

You're saying it would help people? Yeah. In both parties. Yeah.

[James Carville]

Yeah. And I thought they'd say, well, this is a way that we can be against Obamacare, but we can say we want to shut the government down. I actually thought it was in their political best interest to take it. So politically, I'm not that upset that it was rejected. And again, I point out to the fact the House got to come back and settle it, and Mikey, boy, he's not gonna be able to. He can't handle the situation. He can't do it. So, yeah, I thought we would win because I thought they'd have enough political sense to say, hey, these guys are throwing us a lifeline. We ought to take it and we can't get blamed for it.

[Ari Melber]

Yeah, I'll Give you a response to that. And I'm gonna play you a little Obama, but just to button this up. It was really striking because the final Democratic offer before the deal was one year of Obamacare funding, which would help Republicans because it would buy them less pain among the voters. I just showed in line. And the affordability message, all that for just a year. They didn't even want that, to your point. But okay, we got you on that. We're within your window. James Carville, maybe you're the new Brendan Carr and you could decide when we could talk about what. That's a joke.

[James Carville]

Everyone.

[Ari Melber]

I got you wins. Obama doesn't come out that much. I mean, he campaigned a little, but he's well known for kind of hanging back. He came out late, late going into the weekend, victory lap. Take a look.

[Barack Obama]

It was good to see progressives get off the mat. It was a good reminder that it turns out that the American people are paying attention. They don't want cruelty. They're not looking for people on the top trying to entrench themselves in power. We recognize, yeah, we have differences, and yes, there are fights that are going to have to be fought, but that deep down there is something core in us that we have in common that is extraordinary.

[Ari Melber]

Something extraordinary. He's rallied in the base, James, and I'll tell you, you know, I've had Mamdani on the program. I want to ask you about that coming up. I've had Cuomo on the program and I've had plenty of MAGA leaders here as well. I will say, if you simplify it, Cuomo ended up closing weekend in a New York City mayor's race saying diversity can be a weakness. And Obama ended up giving a victory speech there on behalf of a lot of Democrats. He campaigned for saying ideological diversity is not only a strength, but it's part of the Democratic brand in a way that is credible and not part of the autocratic MAGA brand. It would not be credible for them to claim they believe in diversity of that kind right now. Your view on the contrast, the way Obama puts it, first of all, I.

[James Carville]

Was tremendously flattered that he mentioned cruelty as one of the reasons that he did so well. So, yeah, look, if the reason that people, the reason I became a Democrat, because I believed in diversity. I mean, basically, it's a sort of fundamental to being a Democrat that tolerance, inclusion, diversity, whatever that group of words is, is pretty much at the whole identity of what it means to be a Democrat. And I don't care if you were one of the eight Democrats that voted this way. Are you one of the other ones that didn't? I think they all share a, a real commitment to this. And I think that President Obama was absolutely correct. I'm really surprised that Andrew Cuomo would say something like that. I guess people get in the heat of the campaign and they're not thinking of that Foggy. And I don't think that's who is. I don't think. I don't think. I hope Andrew really doesn't believe that because that's a remarkably stupid statement that diversity is a weakness. That's insane. And by the way, every day this country is getting more and more diverse. From the time we go get up in the morning, the time we go to bed at night, we're living in a more diverse country. And I think that's what makes it a better country. I really do.

[Ari Melber]

Really striking there. James has agreed to stick around and I got some really interesting stuff to show you. We're back in 90 seconds.

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[Barack Obama]

We had Zohuan Mandami win part of a vision for the future Donald Trump.

[Ari Melber]

Since I know you're watching, I have four words for you. Turn the volume up. The young mayor quoting KRS1 actually kind of an old school reference there. James Carville knows something about volume, joins us and he said before the election that he was impressed with the mayor elect's message discipline. We are also joined by Adam Green who is, it's fair to say, historically to the left of James, co founder of the Progressive Change campaign committee. They of course endorsed Mamdani and Mr. Green has been involved in efforts from the left primaries, et cetera. I'll let him explain it but James, you get to go first because you're older than both of us. How about that?

[James Carville]

Probably old em both y' all combined.

[Ari Melber]

You get to tell us what the victory means.

[James Carville]

Well, look to me what it means is that he was one of the better messages, more disciplined messengers I've ever seen. He just would not get out of of his affordability message. And I think people were just looking for something different in New York and I think people should, you know, should give him a chance. I mean I hope the guy succeeds. I mean he's leading 8 million people and he's talking about things that are relevant. I mean some of the stuff that he wants to do is difficult, but everything is difficult. But I think he told people he saw him and he saw their problems and they reward him with a victory.

[Ari Melber]

Adam, you know this. When you've advocated for candidates that are seen as liberal, whatever that means. A lot of times the rejoinder from D.C. democrats is, well, they can't win. What do these races say to your argument?

[Adam Green]

So the most important thing for Democrats going forward is to have a vision that actually excites people. I was there Tuesday night at his rally. It was electric. And the people weren't just there because we beat the bad guys, they were there and they will be with him for the long haul because they were inspired by his vision. And no matter where somebody is campaigning, they should be campaigning on a vision that fights for everyday working people, has a shake up the system vibe, and is willing to challenge powerful interests. And you can choose that state by state, district by district. And we've seen that in some red districts and purple districts.

[Ari Melber]

Yeah. And you could do that with a shared brown. Right. Or you could do it with this candidate who some people argue is too polarizing for this to work anywhere else in the country. Your response?

[Adam Green]

Yeah, I would say don't get distracted by the labels. I think most labels in our political system are broken, including left and right and center. We can have a whole discussion about that. But people get.

[Ari Melber]

And yet you never liked the group no labels if there wasn't. That's a deep cut. Everyone, go on.

[Adam Green]

So, you know, Zoran, if you, if you take away the label and even the specific policies, look at how he campaigned, have a vision, be bold, actually inspire people. And maybe challenging corporate power means something different in Nevada or New Hampshire. But the question I would pose to any Democrat, no matter where they're running, is are you willing to name a villain? Are you willing to tell a story? Or are you just gonna have a milquetoast boring campaign or rely on anti Trump backlash and hope that it lasts forever? Surprise. It won't. So if Democrats want to have a durable coalition and not just win in years where Donald Trump is very unpopular, we need to follow his lead everywhere in terms of having a vision and actually inspiring people.

[James Carville]

Yeah.

[Ari Melber]

You know, James, what's interesting is you and Adam are overlapping quite a bit. And I really know you both well enough to know that doesn't always happen.

[James Carville]

I want to.

[Ari Melber]

I want to play. We had Mamdani on this program on election eve Monday night and to set up an exercise with him, we, we mentioned some of your past phrase of what you just referred to his discipline. So I want to play that. And his response. Take a look. James Carville was here he said Zormandami is more on message than any candidate he's ever worked with. And he said hands. You know, hands down, that's a positive. It's very kind of him. So here's the test.

[Ty Cobb]

Oh, God.

[Ari Melber]

How quickly can you go from this topic back to affordability? Okay, Halloween, here's the thing. You're seeing candy prices shoot up across New York City. And it's part of the fact that.

[Adam Green]

We'Re the most expensive city of the.

[Ari Melber]

United States of America.

[Adam Green]

We got to take a look at that.

[Ari Melber]

James.

[James Carville]

A plus. A plus, Prof. Carvel Guess like the guy has got a certain amount of charm and he certainly understands what message discipline is. I really hope he succeeds. I think it would be really good for New York. But I would caution people on one thing. The mayor of New York historically never been much of a figure in national politics as important as New York City is. And I told a friend of mine, the mayor in New York has actually never gone on to be elected governor in New York. And I was corrected. It did happen in 1869. So I think that the Mayo elect has a big city to run. He has a big agenda to get things done. And I hope he succeeds. I really do.

[Ari Melber]

Adam A related debate has been about the other leaders of the party. Everyone lived through Biden and the D.C. sort of elite messaging was there's no problem here. There's no problem here. If you say there's a problem, there's something wrong with you. And then late, when it was kind of late to fix said problem was we got to get rid of them today. It was really something we lived through last year. Now, Senate leader is not the same as president, but your group is coming out against Schumer, who's already been taken on water. Headline. This is your group. As I mentioned, Adam Green's group, Progressive leader calls for Schumer to step aside. Adam Green of the PCCC says the Senate deal to end the shutdown is a failure of Schumer's leadership. And there's been a lot this year that Dems have been unhappy with. Why are you making news on this now? And do you think you'll get anywhere?

[Adam Green]

Yeah, I don't know anybody who thinks that. Chuck Schumer is a spectacular leader for this moment. That would include many senators. I'm sure James Carville knows who in private conversations will say he's not the person to lead us our caucus in this moment. And you know, in other countries, when a leader fails, they step down immediately, whether it's an election or something like Brexit. The next day they'll step down being like, you know what? You trusted me. I tried, I failed. Goodbye. Only in this country are we saddled with people who lose over and over again. And you know, it's a real problem for groups like ours that want to be out there, per James advice, asking people to donate to Senate candidates, volunteer for Senate candidates, to be like, you know what? If we get some fresh blood in there, they will be following Chuck Schumer's lead. That's not really an inspiring proposition right now.

[Ari Melber]

Let me jump in. Some folks say, well, wait a minute, who cares who's leader? And this is about the past. You're saying something that actually has some logic to it, which is the elections are coming in the midterms. If you keep this plan and Democrats do win on the strength of whatever, then Chuck Schumer would still be calling the shots. That's the plan.

[Adam Green]

That is true.

[Ari Melber]

If you don't change it.

[Adam Green]

That is true.

[Ari Melber]

Yeah.

[Adam Green]

In addition to that, even go a step further, I had asked Mr. Carville to listen to this. For groups like mine that email hundreds of thousands, in some cases millions of people trying to get them involved in this election. People who have been excited by the boldness of Senate Democrats the last 40 days whose hopes were raised. There was a question of how do you just say rah, rah Democrats and not even acknowledge that there was a significant loss yesterday. I would argue that the most minimalist thing that we can do if you want to pivot back to the election is say, all right, the one head to roll. Chuck Schumer's. It's not that all Democrats are weak. It's not all Senate Democrats are weak.

[James Carville]

Chuck Schumer has to, first of all, rah, rah Democrats. Okay? Secondly, look, I'm not sure that we lost. I think we got our signature issue for the 2026 campaigns front and center. I think we could drag them back. But again, this Greens organization has got multi front. I'm not really in internal Senate politics. They had 24 Democratic senators and they can do whatever they want. And.

[Ari Melber]

Well, I gotta press you. I'll let you finish, but I gotta press you. You guys may debate whether reopening the government ultimately is good or bad on these equities. I mean, Republicans have the vote. So it's a tougher question, I think, if anyone's being honest about it. But James, Adam is saying this is not motivating, going to the midterms, that you both care about your response to that is that that he's misplaced, that people don't really care who's the leader.

[James Carville]

Well, people were motivated last Tuesday and Schumer was the majority. I mean, I'm not here to defend it, but they were clearly motivated to come out by a variety of factors in a variety of places. By the way, the turnout in the margins were not singular to one place. And look, do I think this is going to be decided on who the Democratic Senate minority leader is? No, I really don't. But the senators have got to make that decision themselves. And Adams group certainly has every is very passionate and they get involved in these kinds of things. I just don't. It's just not been my policy.

[Ari Melber]

We're out of time. But I, you know what we did here, I love what we did. We had the civil debate. Not on a text thread. Not, you know, not back and forth behind each other's backs. We got you both in here and you both know a thing or two about your domains. James Carville, Adam Green, my thanks to both of you. By the end of the hour, we're going to hear why the pop star Olivia Rodrigo is slamming not only Trump's ICE tactics but also what she calls, quote, racist propaganda. Those pardons we'll get into. And Trump White House veteran Ty Cobb speaking out about his former boss's autocratic streak. He is my special guest. Next.

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Necessary VGW group Void where prohibited by law CTNC's 21/ sponsored by Chumba Casino Here's a story that won't go away because Donald Trump keeps siding with convicts and seditionists and would be cool leaders and people who attack police over your United States government. New pardons to about 77 people who were involved one way or the other in some plot or effort to overturn Trump's 2020 laws. It includes names you know, like Rudy Giuliani, who has faced bankruptcy and over $100 million in defamation fines for this former White House chief of staff Mark Meadows, who was indicted in Georgia and a little known lawyer who got very famous when he tried to steal the election, John Eastman. These are federal pardons that all connect to the elaborate multi layered scheme to keep Trump in office. You may recall the arrows coverage we've done which tried to keep track of what was many efforts, some lawful losing, but lawful that's in green, like lawsuits. You can file lawsuits after you lose an election, going all the way down to the insurrection. It's all been pretty well documented.

[James Carville]

They're highly suspect ballots. That could have been Mickey Mouse. That could have been a dead person. I'd fire everybody that was involved in this election.

[Barack Obama]

Yes, I was part of the process.

[James Carville]

To make sure there were alternate electors.

[Ty Cobb]

The remedy was for Vice President Pence's the quarterback in the Green Bay sweep to remand those votes back to the six battleground states. I think a lot of that depends on the courage and the spine of the individuals involved.

[Ari Melber]

What Steve Bannon called courage. Many juries of their peers found as crimes. These new pardons are federal. They're viewed legally as partly symbolic because at this juncture the people getting them are not facing federal charges left over from the past. Pardons won't necessarily affect them at the local level and no one thinks that the DOJ is currently credibly an independent operation that would investigate Trump's aides. Even Donald Trump has admitted in public he views it as a place for revenge and that if you are with him, you're good. Giuliani, Epstein, Meadows and Eastman are still facing pending independent cases in Arizona, where just a reminder, the President is not the governor of Arizona and has no authority over that independent judicial system. Trump, you may recall, memorably was also indicted in Georgia. That's his mugshot, along with Meadows. This pardon is federal. It does not relate to that. Now, Trump's retribution efforts are partly quite substantive and legal because they do things in court, but they also relate to a kind of autocratic narrative effort to erase what really happened. Because if you go back and look at the pictures and the video, we all saw the people beat down police and storm into the nation's capital and cavort around an embarrassing and sometimes dangerous manner. Everybody knows what happened. So apart from the pardons, there has been an effort with a lot of power and money behind it to, as they used to say, whitewash or erase or minimize the actual convicted sedition that occurred that day. It started on Donald Trump's first day in office. It is relevant tonight because we are watching another round of elections that go against him.

[James Carville]

Him.

[Ari Melber]

The last time he faced this, and it mattered more than just the governor's race or the New York City race, the last time there was an election that rejected his party in the White House. Those are the crimes that were committed in his name. Today, again, he makes it very clear he is on the side of those crimes. We are joined by Ty Cobb, who brings a special expertise here. He is a former Trump White House attorney. In the first term, he dealt with the Mueller probe. He has previous experience as a prosecutor. He has since spoken out about what he views as the import of the independent rule of law. Welcome back.

[Ty Cobb]

Hi, Ari. Nice to be with you. Thanks for having me.

[Ari Melber]

Appreciate it. Your view of these pardons.

[Ty Cobb]

So I think, well, it's fascinating listening to your lead and, you know, Trump's so proud of his insurrectionist activities that, you know, the mugshot that you referred to now is prominently displayed in the White House to the shame of most sane Americans.

[Ari Melber]

And while you speak, we'll put that up because we. We thought we might get there with you. The effort to kind of repurpose his view of the mug shot. I think we have this. I'll tell my producer, C1, I think we have it. Go ahead, sir.

[Ty Cobb]

Yeah, no, so I, and I, I think, you know, the pardons today really have nothing to do about protecting the individuals involved at all. I mean, they're ineffectual in that regard. Nobody's currently under federal indictment, and nobody's going to be indicted at the end of Trump's term because the statute of limitations will have run so totally ineffectual as a matter of law. I think that there's really very little doubt that the pardons relate a little bit to what happened last Tuesday and the recognition in the White House and in the MAGA world that they may only have a year left of total domination. They could lose the House, perhaps the Senate, but certainly the House is threatened at this stage of the game from Republican control. And I think they think they may have only a year left to continue their assault on the rule of law and the accumulation of power for the immediate use there. And this is a signal and a recruiting tool to those that will be asked to perform similar atrocities on behalf of Trump and his team over the course of the next year and perhaps in the election interference that they intend for 2026.

[Ari Melber]

You're saying something very alarming. And you worked as a Trump White House lawyer, so you know how some of this thinking goes. You're suggesting if they just wanted to sort of give Giuliani a solid, they could have done this a long time ago. That after Tuesday, they look at this as an illicit kind of signal or potential kickback to next time. That sounds like the baseline for planning to break election law.

[Ty Cobb]

Yes. This is, you know, look at what I'm doing for my friends. I'll take care of you in the future.

[Ari Melber]

Wow. And that's not good.

[Ty Cobb]

No, it's not good. And it's, it's, you know, I mean, this. They, they feel totally unrestrained, of course, by the law or legal requirements. And it's, you know, we have 77 people who just got pardons, presumably because they were criminals. And I don't think you can sugarcoat that. I'm not sure I would have wanted one of these pardons. But the reality is, I think they have plans for 2026. If you just look at what they've done, they've eliminated the election law enforcement at the Department of Justice. They've, they have all but shuttered the Public Integrity section, reducing the number of lawyers there from over 30 to less than 5. Now, you know, the, the, the guardrails that would have protected us and ensured an election integrity are down. And I think they intend to, you.

[James Carville]

Know, run whatever through it.

[Ty Cobb]

They can't.

[Ari Melber]

Yeah. I hope people are listening to you because you're making really important points about why this is about the future, not just the past. Some folks, they glaze over. Oh, we're talking about January 6th again, you know. Well, no, we might be talking about the next January. I'm going to put up some headlines of the, of the consequences for Trump lawyers, because initially he didn't pardon them in the two weeks he had left after January 6th. And then you have the headlines. California upholds Eastman's disbarment. Giuliani disbarred in D.C. another one people may have forgot. Kenneth Chesbrough disbarred in New York. If you're a lawyer and you spend decades doing this and you get disbarred, as you and I know and others can imagine, that alone is a big deal. And it has consequence, others face even more consequence. And so when the center holds, people are disincentivized from joining this. And a coup is not a solo activity. If you want to do it legally, you need lawyers. If you want to do it with force, you're going to need the heads of the agencies or military. So you're worried, or at least you're warning that we went from those lines being held to now the idea that this time he would be faster with rewards. And if they did pull it off, if they did steal the election, then. Then the power continues and those people get away scot free. That's the warning.

[Ty Cobb]

That is. That is the warning.

[Ari Melber]

Yeah.

[Ty Cobb]

He'll have their back. He'll have their back. They'll be pardoned, they'll be protected, you know, however they need to be. And all they need to do is whatever he asked them to do. Sort of like when he, you know, called to Georgia and said, you know, find me another 11,900 plus or minus votes. You know, these are, these are the kind of requests that you can expect in spades if the balance of power is in harm's way is, from his view, in 2026.

[Ari Melber]

Yeah, dead serious. I also want to get you on these new Epstein votes. And the revenge prosecution's Ty Cobb will be back with us right after a short break. Well, he's going to get a third term. So Trump 28. Trump is going to be President 28. And people just sort of get accommodated with that. So what about the 22nd Amendment? There's many different alternatives. At the appropriate time, we'll lay out what the plan is. But there's a plan, and President Trump will be the president in 28. Steve Bannon talking about an unlawful plan, a coup, whatever that would be. Ty Cobb is back with us. You had very different roles, but you were at the White House in the first term, so was he. James Comey was a big flashpoint. You worked on that in the Mueller probe defense. And there are many legit criticisms of James Comey, what lawyers would sometimes call the process or the leadership choices, which are separate from criminal law. As you know, he's since been indicted. Trump's all but admitted in public. He sees it as revenge, not a legal case per se. The President's calls for prosecution, Comey's lawyers argue now don't rest on evidence investigation. Rather, they express vengeful animus to punish a perceived political adversary. Do you think the Comey case is weak on those grounds? And do you see any link between the Bannon esque calls for permanent undemocratic rule and this effort to go after perceived opponents?

[Ty Cobb]

So I would separate the two of those only because, you know, that's not Bannon's. I mean, revenge is really sort of the Ed Martin Channel.

[Ari Melber]

The other guy.

[Ty Cobb]

Yeah, no, I mean, he's Trump's, you know, he's odd job to Goldfinger. He's the minions to despicable me. You know, it's, it's. Bannon has a different role, which is to incite the base and build up the vengeful bloodlust. You know, I was, I was. You're wrong about my overlap with Bannon. Not Ban. Not, not, not to be critical, he and I shared about 24 hours in the White House together before.

[Ari Melber]

I just mean, yeah, you were first. Both first termers, which is different than being a second termer, but I take your distinction.

[Ty Cobb]

But, yeah, yeah, but General Kelly was on the job 24 hours before he kicked Bannon out of the White House. So we didn't really overlap very long. But, but I think, I think the, the, you know, 2028 talk will die down for a while. Trump may resurrect it again later. He's, you know, he's walked away from it a little bit in the last week, you know, but this has happened two or three times before where built to a crescendo. And then, you know, they, they dialed it back. You know, they'll probably have another threat of that at some point. But I, I don't think anybody seriously believes that absent a military couple, Trump will run in 2028 because, you know, the states control their own ballots and it's unconstitutional to put him on the ballot. And I think, I think that's, I think that's highly unlikely. I do think that the Comey case, like the James case, clearly there's a vindictive aspect to it. Clearly there's the revenge aspect to it. I think they, I think they're a little bit different. I think in terms of, of just.

[Ari Melber]

Pure.

[Ty Cobb]

Lack of factual foundation. The James case Probably is a little. Is on a little firmer ground. I mean, there's really no case there. The mortgage in question specifically authorizes short term rentals. You know, the evidence at best would demonstrate that's all she did. So I think that case. I think that case is dead, but I think it's also dead. I think they're both dead initially. On the. On the issue of Halligan's appointment, I think that's a silver bullet. I think Comey will prevail on that. And that would terminate his case because it's now beyond the statute of limitations. I think with James, you know, it's still within statute of limitations. Even if it was dismissed for that reason, she could be re indicted. But again, there's just no there there. And in fact, Todd Blanche, you know, who sold his soul and eliminated any credibility he may have ever had by participating in the extortion of a favorable statement from Ghislaine Maxwell in exchange for favorable treatment in a prison and perhaps now a commutation even he cautioned against bringing the case against James not seeing any legal viability.

[Ari Melber]

Well, that's striking. And I'll get you. I got 45 seconds. You mentioned Epstein. Your view on what now is a different vote count in the house so they could get the Epstein files. Do you think that matters? What do you think will come from any of this?

[Ty Cobb]

First, I think it's a mistake to. To assume that Mike Johnson will actually swear in Representative Gravalgia. But assuming he does that, that would. That would result in a release of some of the Epstein files. What you won't ever see is whatever it is that the CIA is holding back. And I think the CIA has been enacted participant in preventing those materials from coming forward.

[Ari Melber]

Do you have a hint of what. What kind of things they would be involved in?

[Ty Cobb]

Well, keep in mind that Ghislaine Maxwell's father was worked closely with Mossad. He's buried in one of Israel's most sacred burial grounds. And a credible, I mean, I have no idea whether it's real, but a certainly a credible theory as to why there were billions of dollars or over a billion dollars in, you know, money's poured into Epstein's account has to do with his alleged ties for Israel.

[Ari Melber]

Really interesting. We're at the end of two blocks and people watch TV know I'm close to the hour, so. Ty, I'm going to ask you more about that when we have you back. I hope you'll come back, sir.

[Ty Cobb]

Sure. Good to be with you. Thanks for everything.

[Ari Melber]

Absolutely. We'll be right back. You covered a lot of ground. Thanks for spending time with us. I'll see you tomorrow at 6pm Eastern.

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